Assumptions taken for BAU and congestion pricing scenario: ●
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In London after congestion pricing implementation, the traffic in the congestion zone reduced by 30%, while the traffic in the entire city reduced by 15%. Considering that congestion pricing in Mumbai will also have similar results, a 10% decrease in traffic in the congestion pricing area and corridor will lead to a 5% decrease in the overall city traffic. To estimate changes in mode share in congestion pricing scenario, the shifts were only considered from private motor vehicles, auto rickshaw and taxis to metro and bus. The percentage decrease in each category has been estimated proportionately to their existing mode-share. Considering the fact that suburban rail is already performing at maximum capacity, no mode shift was assumed in the category. The mode-split for pedestrians and cyclists was also considered the same. The per km emission factor were considered according to Euro IV / BS IV specifications The BS IV specifications exempts PM emissions for two-wheelers and light vehicles like cars. In that case the BS VI specifications (to be applicable from 2020 in India) were considered for emission estimates
With a 5% reduction in private motor vehicle trips, the annual VKT will reduce to 15.1 billion km (5% reduction) as compared to 15.9 billion km in 2019. CO and PM emissions will decrease by 5% as well from 20 thousand tonnes annually (2019) to 19 thousand tonnes and 2.4 thousand tonnes annually to 2.3 thousand tonnes respectively. NOx and HC+NOx emissions will also be reduced by 3% and 4% respectively from the current levels of 5.5 and 6.8 thousand tonnes to 5.3 and 6.5 thousand tonnes. Figure 34 Environmental impact of congestion pricing in Mumbai in 2019
In the long run, the city should aim at maintaining traffic volumes to post-congestion pricing levels to curb emissions and VKT. While travel demand management measures like congestion pricing can prevent the emissions from getting worse, other measures like electrification of public transportation vehicles, restoration of economically sensitive zones, etc. will be required to further reduce the pollution levels in the city. According to a recent study by the International Council on Clean Transportation, Mumbai has around 750 deaths a year attributed to PM2.5 and ozone emissions from transportation.79 Vehicles generate local air pollutants like NOx, Co, and PM from fuel 79
Health Impacts of Air Pollution from Transportation Sources in Delhi. ICCT. 2019
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