Presentation_Mr.Christian_schindler

Dr. Christian Schindler Director General International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF) Christian.Schindler@itmf.org

The Geography of the Textile Industry Evolution and Trends

Cotton India 2019 March 7/8, 2019 Mumbai, India 1

Situation

2

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Textile growExports at various speeds…

Textilesexports & Clothing - 2000 – 2015 Other

EU28

China

India

Vietnam

Bangladesh

350 300 71 33 69 41 49 72 56 80 65 79 60 61 77 66 94 75 95 67 107 70 112 72 109 63 63 104 110 66

250 200 150 100

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

50

Gross rate (00-17)

Vietnam

China

Bangladesh

India

EU28

x 25

x7

x 4.6 x 3.1 x 1.2

3

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

‌ clothing exports Exports too Textiles & Clothing - 2000 – 2015 Other 600

EU28

China

Bangladesh

India

Vietnam

500 105 116 120 114 98 107 100 130 154 116 160 109 178 117 187 126 175 111 159 116 128 158

400 300 200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

100

Gross rate (00-17)

Vietnam

China

Bangladesh

India

EU28

x 15

x4

x 5.8 x 3.1 x 2.3

4

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Apparel markets growth Region

2018*

2023*

CAGR**

China India Indonesia Brazil Russia Mexico Turkey Subtotal (E7)

301'619 57'488 10'091 38'102 29'608 15'765 18'197 470'870

367'186 97'195 14'631 48'727 37'114 20'997 25'519 611'368

4% 11% 8% 5% 5% 6% 7% 5%

Japan Canada USA France Germany Italy United Kingdom Subtotal (G7)

66'649 27'815 277'376 35'641 64'461 35'242 57'088 564'270

70'376 31'388 316'042 36'600 68'660 36'895 64'662 624'623

1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2%

1'412'424 1'716'738

4%

World

Share of G7 and E7 to World GDP 1990

51%

2018

2050

30%

27% 22%

32%

23% 27% 0%

38%

50%

50% G7

Rest

100% E7

*Retail value RSP in USD bn, current prices, fixed 2017 exchange rate **Mean annual growth rate 2018 to 2023 (%) Source: Euromonitor

5 Source: Handelsblatt 23.08.2018

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Consumption patterns are changing

World 1.399.726,5

Source : Euromonitor 2018 6

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Consumption patterns are changing

World 274.430,6

Source : Euromonitor 2018 7

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Competition drives price strategy

8

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Competition drives technological evolution

Faster

Less laborintensive

Less energyintensive

Less waterintensive

9

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Example Power Costs Manufacturing costs for ring-spinning in 2016 % of total manufacturing costs

100% 80% Interest

60%

Depreciation Auxiliary material

40%

Waste 20%

Labour Power

0%

10

Source: ITMF

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Example Power Costs ring-spinning

1.50

3.10

1.00

3.00

0.50

2.90

0.00

Ring-spinning, lhs

2014

3.20

2012

2.00

2010

3.30

2008

2.50

2006

3.40

2003

3.00

2001

3.50

1999

3.50

1997

3.60

1995

4.00

kWh per kg of yarn (rotor-spinning spinning)

-9%

3.70

1993

kWh per kg of yarn (ring-spinning spinning)

Energy consumption in spinning (average of countries)

rotor-spinning -61%

Open-end spinning, rhs

Source: ITMF

11

Disruptive trends

12

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Mega industry trends

Mass customization

Environmental sustainability

Transparency & Traceability

Infrastructure projects 13

Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications

Industry trends: Digital printing & finishing

Mass customization

“ “Producing goods and services to meet individual customer's needs with near mass production efficiency.” (Tseng, M.M.; Jiao, J. (2001)

Fully automated machinery

14

Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications

Industry trends: Industry 4.0

“The fourth industrial revolution, is the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies.

Physical

Digital

Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications

Industry trends: Circular economy

Environmental sustainability

Recycling

Bio-based textiles

16

Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications

Industry trends:

Transparency & Traceability

17

Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications

Industry trends: Infrastructure One Road one Belt Initiative

Canals in Panama and Suez 18

Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications

Mega policy trends: - Increasing national sentiment among countries and political leaders affecting countries’ national and international political and economic positions - Inability to reach agreement on key issues within countries because of diverging or extreme values, political or religious views - Shifting power from state to non-state actors and individuals, from global to regional levels, and from developed to emerging market and developing economies (WEF - Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018)

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Geographic distribution

20

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

1. Shipments - Short-staple Spindles Rest of the World

China's share

India

Uzbekistan

100%

China

Pakistan

80% 60%

- 1%

40%

Bangladesh

20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

Installed Ring Spindle Capacity (1974 -2016)

200

100

million spindles

300

19741980198619921998200420102016

relative size = number of units per country

(Thousand units)

India Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Total

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 2'188 2'185 2'282 1'892 1'897 10'444 541 750 986 408 246 2'930 222 349 689 764 510 2'534 546 347 189 235 491 1'808 3'497 3'631 4'146 3'299 3'144 17'717 21

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

2. Shipments - Open-end Rotors China's share 100%

Turkey

Rest of the World

India

China

80%

Uzbekistan

60%

- 9%

40%

Vietnam

20%

million rotors

Installed OE-Rotors Capacity (1974 -2016) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

relative size = number of units per country

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2008

0%

India Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Total

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 30'980 36'264 22'456 54'134 41'220 185'054 13'660 15'204 10'940 16'420 26'760 82'984 2'032 7'880 6'648 7'334 4'992 28'886 400 1'680 1'800 9'738 8'052 21'670 47'072 61'028 41'844 87'626 81'024 318'594 22

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

3. Shipments - Texturing spindles Iran

China's share 100%

China Korea, P.R Japan

Rest of the World

India

80% 60% relative size = number of units per country

+17%

40% 20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

India Vietnam Pakistan Bangladesh Total

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 21'644 14'640 13'360 12'662 8'196 70'502 8'160 8'736 6'000 1'920 3'168 27'984 720 1'440 4'800 720 720 8'400 480 240 240 960 31'004 25'056 24'400 15'302 12'084 107'846

*Total single heater + double heater

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

4. Shipments - Shuttle-less looms China's share

Turkey

Rest of the World

China

India

100% 80% 60%

-2%

Bangladesh

40%

Indonesia

20%

relative size = number of units per country

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

Installed Shuttel-less Looms (1974 – 2016) 1.5 1.0 .5 .0

million looms

2.0

India Bangladesh Vietnam Pakistan Total

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10'056 16'207 16'326 14'222 21'245 2'816 5'410 8'039 7'734 5'771 814 1'977 3'161 2'537 1'826 1'006 1'626 1'441 2'815 1'991 14'692 25'220 28'967 27'308 30'833

Total 78'056 29'770 10'315 8'879 127'020

*Total air-Jet + rapier and projectile + water-jet

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Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

5. Shipments – Circular knitting machines China

China's share

Vietnam

Rest of the World

India

100% 80%

Bangladesh

-7%

Indonesia

60% 40%

relative size = number of units per country

20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

India Bangladesh Vietnam Pakistan Total

2013 1'598 913 412 143 3'066

2014 2'464 951 999 217 4'631

2015 3'255 1'587 1'281 164 6'287

2016 4'234 2'178 1'386 446 8'244

2017 Total 5'116 16'667 1'281 6'910 2'004 6'082 478 1'448 8'879 31'107

*Total single + double

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Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

6. Shipments – Electr. flat knitting machines China's share

China

Rest of the World

100% 80%

Vietnam

60%

India

40%

+ 6%

20%

Thailand Bangladesh

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

thousand machines

200 150 100 50

Shipments to China from the rest of the world Chines domestic shipments

relative size = number of units per country

Bangladesh Vietnam India Pakistan Total

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3'962 11'312 16'522 16'886 18'042 413 1'956 1'829 3'628 6'575 416 1'840 3'844 2'857 2'883 12 68 342 588 114 4'803 15'176 22'537 23'959 27'614

Total 66'724 14'401 11'840 1'124 94'089 26

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

6. Shipments – Finishing machines Turkey

China

Vietnam China's share

India

Rest of the World

100%

Bangladesh

80% 60% relative size = number of units per country

40%

+ 2%

20% 0% 2015

2016

2017

India Bangladesh Vietnam Pakistan Total

2015 374 97 43 33 547

2016 293 174 116 41 624

2017 412 258 173 62 905

Total 1'079 529 332 136 2'076

*Indicator for interest in the finishing segment Total continuous + discontinuous – all categories

27

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Why is China still so competitive in textiles/apparel?

28

Outlook

29

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook 140 120

Global Textile Mill Consumption

million tons

100 80 60 40 20

Cotton

Wool

Cellulosic Staple

Cellulosic Filament

Polyester Staple

Polyester Filament

Nylon Staple

Nylon Filament

Polypropylene (Filament + Staple)

Acrylic

Source: PCI Fibres (2017)

30

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Which fibre?

Fiber Production - World (in million tons) 2017

2020 **

%-change

Cotton * Wool * Acrylic Nylon (filament) Nylon (staple) Polypropylene (staple) Polypropylene (filament) Polyester (staple) Polyester (filament) Cellulosic (staple) Cellulosic (filament)

24.50 1.15 1.68 0.19 4.26 0.35 1.65 16.76 35.49 4.28 0.27

25.00 1.17 1.69 0.22 4.71 0.37 1.90 17.58 39.28 5.10 0.29

2% 2% 0% 14% 11% 6% 15% 5% 11% 19% 10%

Total MMF Total Fibre Production

64.94 90.59

71.14 97.31

10% 7%

* Consumption figures

** Forecast Source: PCI Fibres (2017)

31

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Where?

World Man-made Fibre Production by Country/Region (million tons) China Western Europe Eastern Europe Turkey Africa/Middle East Chinese Taipei North America India Japan South Asia S. Korea Latin America Australasia Total Fibre Production * Forecast Source: PCI Fibres (2017)

2017 44.96 2.52 .74 1.38 .80 1.77 2.84 5.93 .67 4.87 .05 1.71 .79 69.03

2020 * 48.89 2.69 .88 1.75 .90 1.79 3.19 6.96 .66 5.66 .05 1.67 .90 75.99

%-change 9% 7% 18% 27% 13% 1% 12% 17% -2% 16% 6% -2% 14% 10%

32

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Why? Growing global GDP, current prices (billion USD) Year

World Europe

USA

China

India

Middle East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

2018

87.5

22.9

20.4

14.1

2.9

3.1

1.7

2023

114.3

28.1

24.5

21.6

4.66

3.8

2.6

Growth %

30.7

22.7

20.2

53.1

63.5

25.1

55.8

GDP per capita, current prices (thousand USD) Year

World Europe

USA

China

India

Middle East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

2018

11.7

30.9

62.2

10.1

2.1

6.6

1.7

2023

14.5

37.9

71.8

15.2

3.3

7.5

2.3

Growth % 23.5

22.6

15.1

50.5

53.5

13.6

37.1

Sources: IMF, UN

•

Global GDP is expected to increase by over 30% from 2018 to 2023

•

Economic growth in emerging and developing countries will remain strong

•

Asian retail markets for textile and apparel become more and more important

33

Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook

Why? Higher per capita fibre consumption (kg per capita) Period World West Turkey North China* India Europe America 2017 2020 2030

12.5 13.1 15.2

22.4 23.1 26.5

26.8 26.9 29.0

32.6 34.1 38.5

20.1 21.9 29.0

Africa/ Middle East 5.8 5.8 6.3 5.9 8.2 6.2

*with Hong Kong

Source: PCI-Fibres (2017)

34

Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications

Summary -

Growing Global Textile & Apparel Markets Share of e-Commerce is on the rise (around 20%) New technologies allow mass customized production Internet of Things (IoT) offers new potential to increase productivity Sustainability is a trend and an integral part of business (CSR) Infrastructure Projects (OROB-Initiative) – Creating new opportunities Textile production concentrated in Asia (especially in China) Shifts of textile production to other countries (Asia and partially Africa) Production in other regions (Africa, Americas, Europe) has more potential due to Technologies (digital and 3-D printing, automation) Fashion trends (fast fashion, speed to market) Reduced cost differentials (rising labor costs) Sustainability (traceability, circular economy)

-

Global fiber consumption is on the rise (GDP and population) Man-made fibers (mmf) are benefiting most Within mmf, cellulosic staple + polyester filaments are growing strongly Wool has become a «luxury» fibre Cotton remains the largest supplier of staple fiber

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