Dr. Christian Schindler Director General International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF) Christian.Schindler@itmf.org
The Geography of the Textile Industry Evolution and Trends
Cotton India 2019 March 7/8, 2019 Mumbai, India 1
Situation
2
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Textile growExports at various speeds… Textilesexports & Clothing - 2000 – 2015 Other
EU28
China
India
Vietnam
Bangladesh
350 300 71 33 69 41 49 72 56 80 65 79 60 61 77 66 94 75 95 67 107 70 112 72 109 63 63 104 110 66
250 200 150 100
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
Gross rate (00-17)
Vietnam
China
Bangladesh
India
EU28
x 25
x7
x 4.6 x 3.1 x 1.2
3
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
‌ clothing exports Exports too Textiles & Clothing - 2000 – 2015 Other 600
EU28
China
Bangladesh
India
Vietnam
500 105 116 120 114 98 107 100 130 154 116 160 109 178 117 187 126 175 111 159 116 128 158
400 300 200
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
100
Gross rate (00-17)
Vietnam
China
Bangladesh
India
EU28
x 15
x4
x 5.8 x 3.1 x 2.3
4
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Apparel markets growth Region
2018*
2023*
CAGR**
China India Indonesia Brazil Russia Mexico Turkey Subtotal (E7)
301'619 57'488 10'091 38'102 29'608 15'765 18'197 470'870
367'186 97'195 14'631 48'727 37'114 20'997 25'519 611'368
4% 11% 8% 5% 5% 6% 7% 5%
Japan Canada USA France Germany Italy United Kingdom Subtotal (G7)
66'649 27'815 277'376 35'641 64'461 35'242 57'088 564'270
70'376 31'388 316'042 36'600 68'660 36'895 64'662 624'623
1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2%
1'412'424 1'716'738
4%
World
Share of G7 and E7 to World GDP 1990
51%
2018
2050
30%
27% 22%
32%
23% 27% 0%
38%
50%
50% G7
Rest
100% E7
*Retail value RSP in USD bn, current prices, fixed 2017 exchange rate **Mean annual growth rate 2018 to 2023 (%) Source: Euromonitor
5 Source: Handelsblatt 23.08.2018
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Consumption patterns are changing
World 1.399.726,5
Source : Euromonitor 2018 6
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Consumption patterns are changing
World 274.430,6
Source : Euromonitor 2018 7
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Competition drives price strategy
8
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Competition drives technological evolution
Faster
Less laborintensive
Less energyintensive
Less waterintensive
9
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Example Power Costs Manufacturing costs for ring-spinning in 2016 % of total manufacturing costs
100% 80% Interest
60%
Depreciation Auxiliary material
40%
Waste 20%
Labour Power
0%
10
Source: ITMF
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Example Power Costs ring-spinning
1.50
3.10
1.00
3.00
0.50
2.90
0.00
Ring-spinning, lhs
2014
3.20
2012
2.00
2010
3.30
2008
2.50
2006
3.40
2003
3.00
2001
3.50
1999
3.50
1997
3.60
1995
4.00
kWh per kg of yarn (rotor-spinning spinning)
-9%
3.70
1993
kWh per kg of yarn (ring-spinning spinning)
Energy consumption in spinning (average of countries)
rotor-spinning -61%
Open-end spinning, rhs
Source: ITMF
11
Disruptive trends
12
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Mega industry trends
Mass customization
Environmental sustainability
Transparency & Traceability
Infrastructure projects 13
Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications
Industry trends: Digital printing & finishing
Mass customization
“ “Producing goods and services to meet individual customer's needs with near mass production efficiency.” (Tseng, M.M.; Jiao, J. (2001)
Fully automated machinery
14
Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications
Industry trends: Industry 4.0
“The fourth industrial revolution, is the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies.
Physical
Digital
Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications
Industry trends: Circular economy
Environmental sustainability
Recycling
Bio-based textiles
16
Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications
Industry trends:
Transparency & Traceability
17
Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications
Industry trends: Infrastructure One Road one Belt Initiative
Canals in Panama and Suez 18
Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications
Mega policy trends: - Increasing national sentiment among countries and political leaders affecting countries’ national and international political and economic positions - Inability to reach agreement on key issues within countries because of diverging or extreme values, political or religious views - Shifting power from state to non-state actors and individuals, from global to regional levels, and from developed to emerging market and developing economies (WEF - Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018)
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Geographic distribution
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Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
1. Shipments - Short-staple Spindles Rest of the World
China's share
India
Uzbekistan
100%
China
Pakistan
80% 60%
- 1%
40%
Bangladesh
20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
Installed Ring Spindle Capacity (1974 -2016)
200
100
million spindles
300
19741980198619921998200420102016
relative size = number of units per country
(Thousand units)
India Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Total
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 2'188 2'185 2'282 1'892 1'897 10'444 541 750 986 408 246 2'930 222 349 689 764 510 2'534 546 347 189 235 491 1'808 3'497 3'631 4'146 3'299 3'144 17'717 21
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
2. Shipments - Open-end Rotors China's share 100%
Turkey
Rest of the World
India
China
80%
Uzbekistan
60%
- 9%
40%
Vietnam
20%
million rotors
Installed OE-Rotors Capacity (1974 -2016) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
relative size = number of units per country
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2008
0%
India Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Total
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 30'980 36'264 22'456 54'134 41'220 185'054 13'660 15'204 10'940 16'420 26'760 82'984 2'032 7'880 6'648 7'334 4'992 28'886 400 1'680 1'800 9'738 8'052 21'670 47'072 61'028 41'844 87'626 81'024 318'594 22
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
3. Shipments - Texturing spindles Iran
China's share 100%
China Korea, P.R Japan
Rest of the World
India
80% 60% relative size = number of units per country
+17%
40% 20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
India Vietnam Pakistan Bangladesh Total
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 21'644 14'640 13'360 12'662 8'196 70'502 8'160 8'736 6'000 1'920 3'168 27'984 720 1'440 4'800 720 720 8'400 480 240 240 960 31'004 25'056 24'400 15'302 12'084 107'846
*Total single heater + double heater
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
4. Shipments - Shuttle-less looms China's share
Turkey
Rest of the World
China
India
100% 80% 60%
-2%
Bangladesh
40%
Indonesia
20%
relative size = number of units per country
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
Installed Shuttel-less Looms (1974 – 2016) 1.5 1.0 .5 .0
million looms
2.0
India Bangladesh Vietnam Pakistan Total
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10'056 16'207 16'326 14'222 21'245 2'816 5'410 8'039 7'734 5'771 814 1'977 3'161 2'537 1'826 1'006 1'626 1'441 2'815 1'991 14'692 25'220 28'967 27'308 30'833
Total 78'056 29'770 10'315 8'879 127'020
*Total air-Jet + rapier and projectile + water-jet
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Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
5. Shipments – Circular knitting machines China
China's share
Vietnam
Rest of the World
India
100% 80%
Bangladesh
-7%
Indonesia
60% 40%
relative size = number of units per country
20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
India Bangladesh Vietnam Pakistan Total
2013 1'598 913 412 143 3'066
2014 2'464 951 999 217 4'631
2015 3'255 1'587 1'281 164 6'287
2016 4'234 2'178 1'386 446 8'244
2017 Total 5'116 16'667 1'281 6'910 2'004 6'082 478 1'448 8'879 31'107
*Total single + double
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Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
6. Shipments – Electr. flat knitting machines China's share
China
Rest of the World
100% 80%
Vietnam
60%
India
40%
+ 6%
20%
Thailand Bangladesh
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
thousand machines
200 150 100 50
Shipments to China from the rest of the world Chines domestic shipments
relative size = number of units per country
Bangladesh Vietnam India Pakistan Total
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3'962 11'312 16'522 16'886 18'042 413 1'956 1'829 3'628 6'575 416 1'840 3'844 2'857 2'883 12 68 342 588 114 4'803 15'176 22'537 23'959 27'614
Total 66'724 14'401 11'840 1'124 94'089 26
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
6. Shipments – Finishing machines Turkey
China
Vietnam China's share
India
Rest of the World
100%
Bangladesh
80% 60% relative size = number of units per country
40%
+ 2%
20% 0% 2015
2016
2017
India Bangladesh Vietnam Pakistan Total
2015 374 97 43 33 547
2016 293 174 116 41 624
2017 412 258 173 62 905
Total 1'079 529 332 136 2'076
*Indicator for interest in the finishing segment Total continuous + discontinuous – all categories
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Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Why is China still so competitive in textiles/apparel?
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Outlook
29
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook 140 120
Global Textile Mill Consumption
million tons
100 80 60 40 20
Cotton
Wool
Cellulosic Staple
Cellulosic Filament
Polyester Staple
Polyester Filament
Nylon Staple
Nylon Filament
Polypropylene (Filament + Staple)
Acrylic
Source: PCI Fibres (2017)
30
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Which fibre? Fiber Production - World (in million tons) 2017
2020 **
%-change
Cotton * Wool * Acrylic Nylon (filament) Nylon (staple) Polypropylene (staple) Polypropylene (filament) Polyester (staple) Polyester (filament) Cellulosic (staple) Cellulosic (filament)
24.50 1.15 1.68 0.19 4.26 0.35 1.65 16.76 35.49 4.28 0.27
25.00 1.17 1.69 0.22 4.71 0.37 1.90 17.58 39.28 5.10 0.29
2% 2% 0% 14% 11% 6% 15% 5% 11% 19% 10%
Total MMF Total Fibre Production
64.94 90.59
71.14 97.31
10% 7%
* Consumption figures
** Forecast Source: PCI Fibres (2017)
31
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Where? World Man-made Fibre Production by Country/Region (million tons) China Western Europe Eastern Europe Turkey Africa/Middle East Chinese Taipei North America India Japan South Asia S. Korea Latin America Australasia Total Fibre Production * Forecast Source: PCI Fibres (2017)
2017 44.96 2.52 .74 1.38 .80 1.77 2.84 5.93 .67 4.87 .05 1.71 .79 69.03
2020 * 48.89 2.69 .88 1.75 .90 1.79 3.19 6.96 .66 5.66 .05 1.67 .90 75.99
%-change 9% 7% 18% 27% 13% 1% 12% 17% -2% 16% 6% -2% 14% 10%
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Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Why? Growing global GDP, current prices (billion USD) Year
World Europe
USA
China
India
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
2018
87.5
22.9
20.4
14.1
2.9
3.1
1.7
2023
114.3
28.1
24.5
21.6
4.66
3.8
2.6
Growth %
30.7
22.7
20.2
53.1
63.5
25.1
55.8
GDP per capita, current prices (thousand USD) Year
World Europe
USA
China
India
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
2018
11.7
30.9
62.2
10.1
2.1
6.6
1.7
2023
14.5
37.9
71.8
15.2
3.3
7.5
2.3
Growth % 23.5
22.6
15.1
50.5
53.5
13.6
37.1
Sources: IMF, UN
•
Global GDP is expected to increase by over 30% from 2018 to 2023
•
Economic growth in emerging and developing countries will remain strong
•
Asian retail markets for textile and apparel become more and more important
33
Situation | Disruptive trends | Geographic distribution | Outlook
Why? Higher per capita fibre consumption (kg per capita) Period World West Turkey North China* India Europe America 2017 2020 2030
12.5 13.1 15.2
22.4 23.1 26.5
26.8 26.9 29.0
32.6 34.1 38.5
20.1 21.9 29.0
Africa/ Middle East 5.8 5.8 6.3 5.9 8.2 6.2
*with Hong Kong
Source: PCI-Fibres (2017)
34
Textile/apparel industry | Disruption | Re/distribution | Implications
Summary -
Growing Global Textile & Apparel Markets Share of e-Commerce is on the rise (around 20%) New technologies allow mass customized production Internet of Things (IoT) offers new potential to increase productivity Sustainability is a trend and an integral part of business (CSR) Infrastructure Projects (OROB-Initiative) – Creating new opportunities Textile production concentrated in Asia (especially in China) Shifts of textile production to other countries (Asia and partially Africa) Production in other regions (Africa, Americas, Europe) has more potential due to Technologies (digital and 3-D printing, automation) Fashion trends (fast fashion, speed to market) Reduced cost differentials (rising labor costs) Sustainability (traceability, circular economy)
-
Global fiber consumption is on the rise (GDP and population) Man-made fibers (mmf) are benefiting most Within mmf, cellulosic staple + polyester filaments are growing strongly Wool has become a «luxury» fibre Cotton remains the largest supplier of staple fiber
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