TAR122 - Q1 2023 - NIGERIA extract

POLITICS REDR AW N

Shiftsinthe political weather canbeharde tointerpretthandisruptionsin demography, technologyandclimatechange, buttheyare justassubstantive. Politicalsystemsarewhere Africa’s mega-trendsconverge.

Forevery government,three factors standout:the demographictransitions underwhichAfricawillhave the world’s highest number of working-agepeople by 2050,thepoweroffinancialand communicationstechnologyto restructuretheireconomies,andthethreatof climatechangeto destroy production andforcemassmigration.

Someofthaturgencyplayedoutatthe COP27climate summit,where Global South delegateswontheargumentto setup alossanddamagefundtocompensate stateshit by climatedamage. The nextstage– organisingcontributionsand disbursing payments –willbemoretesting still, but alandmarkhasbeenpassed.

Gettingthereneeded cross- continental organisation.Africa wenttothesummitwith multiplicityofcontinental,nationaland local organisations,overlappingandclashingasthe sawfit.A newclimatepoliticsisemerging.

Formanygovernments,the ideaofdisrup tionconjuresuptrouble.Narrowly,forman inpower, itmeanshundredsofthousandsof

tech-savvy youngpeopletakingtothestreets, holding ministersaccountable.

Thankstograssrootsactivists,Africanow hassomeofthemosttechnicallysophisticated electionsinthe world. Lookatthe voter verificationsystemsin KenyaandNigeria. Butpoliticalwilliscritical, eveninthehightechera.Shenanigans withelectorallistsand theriskofhacksintheelectoralcommission serveroffernewchances tofixthenumbers

In Kenya’snational electionsin August, WilliamRuto’s campaign ranafarbetter connectedand resourcedtechteamthanRaila Odinga’s.TheRutoteam’s masteryofthe electoralprocessescountered theinfluenceof Odinga’smoretraditionalistalliancebroking.

Asubscriptionto aVPN andanencrypted messagingserviceare derigeur formodern Africanactivists,whilesocial-mediaplatforms have boostedtheirsphereforcritiquingthe statusquo.Inresponse,rulingpartyapparatchiksare settingupmirrorsagainstthe ocialmedia r:toconfuseand ppositionpoliticalmessaging, and gime’s line. national heSahel,theHornandbeyond. uninparallelwith rnmentscrimitrictingor ivil-societyorganisations. bruarywill criticallytestthisdigital-analoguebalntcandidate but witha rcomethe la Tinubu heorganisationand ountrywithsome ormidable, hatiswhy atched.

Heav yweightelections, Benin bronze s, debt re structuring, fintech innovation,Gulfinves tment, por tdevelopment s, long-stay presidents,new re gional force s, striking nurs es…aglimpse of theyearahe ad

36 OPINION /TheshameofscapegoatingMandela

Youngcitizens and ANCleaders areblaming thefatherof South Africa forcontinued povert yandcrime,whilepopulis ts de stroyhis le gacy of tolerance and Africanunity.Whatifthe ANCtookalook at it self instead?

38 INTERVIEW /PresidentofGhana,NanaAkufo-Addo

PresidentAkufo -Addotalks to The Africa Report ab out thecountry’s recent $3bnde al withtheIMF,Ghana’s future ambitions, and how educationishis redline.

43 INVESTIGATION /TikTok &thepoliticsoftomorrow

As socialmedia become sthe ultimate toolb othfor savv ypoliticians andmanipulativeforeigngovernment s, The Africa Report analys es thes cale of disinformation in Ghana’sTikTokcommunity,and Big Tech’s manyfailure sonthe continent

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52

NIGERIA ELECTIONS

The‘change’electionin February will open up a pos t- Buhari era,withthe economykey forvoters.

DRCFOCUS

PresidentFélix Tshisekedi hasayeartoconvince theelectorate he’s worth anotherterm.

LIBYAFOCUS

Thecountry is tr ying toturn roundthe oils ectordespite politicalchaos

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If a SouthAfrican company wins a contract in a foreign country, nobodysuggests that such a company ought nottohave beenconsidered onaccountof being a foreigncompany [‘Accused fromallsides, Beijing counter-attacks’, TAR online, 3 Oct2022]. I am100% certainthat Chinese companies know how to build good roads. I have drivenonthemall over Africa.Iftheiroffer ischeaperanditwill mostlikelybecompleted withinthe timeagreed upon,I see no reason why they should notbe giventhesecontracts. While they are atit, perhapsthey should send a thousandengineersand take Eskom over.

Carl du Plessis

DIGITAL ON THE DOWN -LOW

I lived inBangui from Jan-June2018, andam stillintouchwith friends there. Noone I knew –lower-middle-class CentralAfricansand Eritreans – knew about themove tocrypto, nor

whatitmeant[‘CAR backsdownfromimplementing cryptocurrency law’, TAR online,27 July2022]. Perhaps a handfulofpoliticaland foreignelite s will be able touseitto move money inand out ofthe country That’s about it, apartfrom,ofcourse, thedreadfulprospectof Wagnerusingittomove diamondsandother ill- gottenprofitsbackto Russia.

Anonym ous

A LONG WAY TO GO

Lai Mohammed wasn’tlying when recountingBuhari’s achievements[‘Buhari’s quality performance willboost Tinubu’s chances’, TAR online,18 Nov 2022],particularlyinthearea of infrastructure. Buharihas also done a great dealinotherareas inthepastseven-plus years of his administration:huge funds released for socialinvestmentandsecurity; agriculture has received a majorboost; [the]power supply is improving; EFCC andICPC have become a more fearfulbugbear of corruptNigerians. On theflip side, youthunemployment remainshigh, inflationis eatingtoo deeply intoourpockets, tertiary education is in chaos, andthe political atmosphere remainsuncertain, even volatile.

Gilber t Alabi Diche

BAD MANAGEMENT ?

One wondersindeed ifthefinanceminister isthesolecauseofthe inflationinGhana[‘I amnotguilty,butIam sorry forthehardship’, TARonline,22Nov 2022].Mostcountries arewrestlingwithprice hikes,andmostofthem areplayingwithREPO rateadjustments,which isanapproachto reduce moneysupplyinthe market. Thegistofthe matter isthatthere is

cost-pushinflationdueto hiccupsandorblockages onthesupplyside, thus reducingthe money supplyis onlyashort solution. The sustainable solutionistoaddress thesupplychain.Rising inflationary pressures, exacerbated by rising commodityprices, are compounding thepolicy challenges ofbalancing economic recovery withmaintaining price stability, says theIMF Jo el Uwizeye

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NADIR KHAYAT GOAL-ORI EN TED

differences together, and make people feel good,” Khayat says

“MeandEfe always believed that Africa would bethefuture– we manifested itin a way, andittakes time Butslowly, slowlyit was growing, andnow itistaking over the world.”

ThisincrementalprocessissomethingthatKhayat can identifywith.“I did not realise I hadtalentuntil I was 16,” he says. “Isaw [the band] Europe, andheard ‘The Final Countdown’, and that was it, that was whenitclicked.I was obsessed, I wouldn’t do anything butplay guitarand learn everything aboutmusic.” Rather than play covers like hisbrothers, he foundhecould compose “Ihad new ideas.”

NICHOLASNORBROOK

The Africa Report firsthadcoffee withNadirKhayat– better knownas two -timeGrammy-winningproducer RedOne – in a perky Stockholm brasserie backin2010. Over a stack of waffles, he and his musicalpartner Efe Ogbeni were plotting out how Africanmusic could go global.

Twelve yearslater, thoseseeds are bearingfruit. Khayat isnow FIFA’s Executive DirectorofEntertainment. Responsible for thesoundtrackofthe Qatar World Cup, hechoseNigerian afrobeats legend Davido to feature ontheofficialtheme, ‘Hayya Hayya (Better together)’.

“Itmeansthatdreams do cometrue”, hesays, speakingtousviavideo link fromDoha. “I’m veryhappy, football hasbeen in my blood since I wasa kid growingupinMorocco.”

ThisisnothisfirstFIFA rodeo: Khayat’s hit‘Bamboo’ becamean ‘officialmelody’ for the2006 World Cup, andhecontributed ‘One World’ for the2018competition. Butnow heisinthedrivingseat… andhe’s enjoyingtheride On‘Hayya Hayya’

hecanbespotted playingtheguitar alongside Davido inthe Qatari desert. “Of course! I’m a rock guy,Ilove playing.I was enjoyingthefilming ofthevideo, theatmosphere ofthe World Cup,” says Khayat. “So it was a verybeautifulmoment, for sure”.

“Davido is a friend,” says Khayat. “Andheis a huge star for usAfricans. Hebelieves inthe dream.Andwhen you see somebodyfromAfricamaking itbiginthe world,puttingtheirstamp onhistory, itmakes you proud”.

Davido has helped liftthe Afrobeats genre ontotheglobalstage, connectingpeople in a new way. “Forme, footballandmusic are thesame, they bringcultures together, bringallthe

Hopping over to Swedenaround the age of18, he wenttoalltheconcerts hecould– “Metallica, RollingStones, everything”– and realised thepotential ofmusic toblurboundaries. “The concerts were fullof people fromall differentbackgrounds, and everyone getsalong becausethey share the love for music. You startcryingsometimes.”

Thencame themagic ofcreating music for larger audiences, working with LadyGaga,anddissolving the boundaries further “That feelingwhen you have a whole stadium,and that music istheirs, notmine, notGaga’s, fanssinging ‘Bad Romance’ that is a crazy energy.”

Today, with awardstohis nameand a long rosterof A-listcollaborations underhisbelt, heisable to reachnot tensofthousandsbutmillions His FIFA World Cupsong‘Dreamers’, featuringJungkookfromthe K-pop boybandBTS, topped the chartsin over 100countries.

“Heisthe voice of a new generation,” says Khayat. “Thelyricssay itall:‘We are thedreamers, we make ithappen because we cansee it.’”

Heispleased for Jungkook, taking a riskonhissolo material.“Heisin BTS, they are massive. But that doesn’t mean you are goingtohave success when you go solo. For himtohave thefirst World Cupsongthat goes

Interviewby

tonumberoneandbreaks records – you can’tbeanythingbutincredibly happy for him.”

Ina way, he could betalkingabout his ow n journey “Everybody

thought I wasa crazy kid who was dreamingofwinningGrammys in America.Andif you’re from a little towninMorocco, Tétouan,how can you dream ofwinning a Grammy? It’s impossible.”

ThisFIFA World Cupin Qatarhas certainly face d criticism– around thehuman rightsof workers, the treatmentofminorities, corruption. Othercommentators have pointed to double standardsinthe way Qatarhas beentreated.

Beyondthesepolemics, itis worth takingseriously Khayat’s ideasaround differences beingsoluble inmusic. While thismightseemflimsy gift-card materialatfirstglance, there issome evidence for theliberalisingimpact ofglobalsporting events Jungkook wo ul d ha ve been fiv e ye arsol d atthe 2002 World Cupin Seoul, which

iscredited withopeningthepolitical and cultural spacein Korea.

The re sult, two de cad es later? Koreancinema,televisionandmusic is a key export, andmany ofthose artists are doingthedifficult work ofdigestingthetraumatic decades of the1980sand1990s, helping Korea make senseofitspastandpushsociety forwards.

Itmightbe a stretch toproject a similarcatalytic trajectory for Qatar. ButKhayatthinks the World Cup isan importantmoment for thecountryand the region. “Allthe[visitors]thathave come here say: ‘This isincredible, the people here are so welcoming, very positive.’ Soofcoursethiswillhave a huge impact for thefuture– somany people witnessing how smoothlythe eventisbeingrun,” says Khayat.

Hehighlightsthe choice of Qatari singer Aishaonthe ‘Hayya Hayya’ track. “We could have gone fora big Arabstar, but we wanted tochoose a new talent, to reallyshow the world, look, there are womenin Qatar,in Africa,intheKhaleeji world,that can really have animpact.”

Music alsoplays a partinMorocco’s own South Korea-style culturalindustrialpolicy. Overthepast decade the Kingdom hascreated multiple music festivals, such as Mawazine, orthe Fes World Festival ofSacred Music. “Itstarte d withtheKing, whohas used ittoconnect andlisten tothe youth,” says Khayat. “We are goingto make this a huge scene globally. We are workingonthat, itmighttakea few years, butit’s going to happen.

‘EveryonethoughtI wasacrazykidwho wasdreamingof winningGrammys’

JEAN-MARC UPA FOR RTA

JANUARY COUPIN

OUAGADOUGOU

People show their suppor t for the military af ter it deposed President Roch Marc ChristianKaboré outside RTB television headquar ters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, on 24 Januar y.

Whileviolenceandmilitaryshowsofpower marredmanyAfricannations,peaceatleast descendedonEthiopiain2022.Climate changeandregimechangeviedfor attention,and WestAfricarejoicedatGhana goalsandthereturnoftwoBeninbronzes

AUGUST MOSCOWFLEXESMUSCLE

A member of the closeprotection unitfor Central African Republic president Faustin-Archange Touadéra, composed of Russian private security company operatives from Sewa Security Russian military consultants have set up training for the CAR Armed Forces and the Internal Securit y Forces

VINCENT BADO/REUTERS

MARCH PETROLPANIC

Rising petrol prices provoked by the war in Ukraine force motorcyclists in Bukavu, easternDRC, to queue up for the last affordable litres of fuel

JULY WOMENFORPEACEIN KHARTOUM

Sudane se women took tothe streets in the Bashdar station area in southern Khartoum on July 26,protesting against the military coup in 20 01 led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and a spike in tribal violence that left more than 100 people dead

GUERCHOM

YEARIN IMAGES

AUGUST ASHOCKFORJ-LO

The Angolanelection of 24 August took away much ofthe power of President Joâo Lourenços governing MPL A, leaving it with a le ss-than-t wo -thirds majority in parliament.

AUGUST BRONZESRESTITUTED

A bronze cockerel anda bust (below) werereturned tothe Oba of Beninpalace in Nigeria,whence they were looted by the British army in 1897

OCTOBER HIGH WATERS

Anaerial view shows the aftermath of the flooded landscape of Yenagoa, the capital town of Bayelsa, Nigeria, on 21 October. The flood and humanitarian crisisis worsening in Nigeria’s south.

CHEN CHENG/XINHUA/REA

NOVEMBER COP27

Ugandan climate activists Vane ssa Nakate and AidahNakku take par t in the Fridays for Future strike during the COP27 summit in Eg ypt.

SEPTEMBER THE HUSTLERSTANDS TALL

Kenya’s new president, William Ruto, listens tothe national anthem during his swearing-in ceremony atMoi International Stadium in Nairobi.

NOVEMBER PEACEINETHIOPIA

After

NOVEMBER AFRICANGOALS

Ghana’s Mohammed Salisu scores his first goal in the 28 November World Cup match against South Korea (3-2 to Ghana). Five African nations (Cameroon, Ghana, Morocco, Senegal and Tunisia) qualified for the 2022 contest in Qatar.

NOVEMBER REGIONALRESPONSE

Kenyan soldiers land in Goma, DRC, on 12 November as part of a regional military operation targeting theoffensives of the M23 rebels in the region.

two yearsof brutal war in northern Ethiopia, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula (left) of the Ethiopian National Defence Force and General Tadesse Worede (right)of the Tigray Defence Forces shook hands, watched by formerpresidents of Nigeria and Kenya Olusegun Obasanjo and Uhuru Kenyatta

CHILDS

YEARIN IMAGES

NIGERIA INSIGHT

Lagosrallyfor Bola Tinubu, candidatefor theruling APC,where thegodfather hashisbase

Whow ill fix Nigeria’s economic malaise?

What adifferenceeightyearsmake.Intherun-up tothepresidentialelectionsof2015,thekeyissue wasinsecurityandtheabductionofmorethan 250schoolgirlsfromChibokinnorth-eastNigeria; todayitistheailingeconomy

By ENIOLAAKINKUOTU

Thecatastrophicincidentshookthe entireworld.TheUS FirstLady, MichelleObama, PDiddyandAlicia Keys alljoinedthe#BringBackOurGirls campaign.On thered carpetof the CannesFilm Festival,Hollywood stars –MelGibson, Wesley Snipes, Harrison Ford,SylvesterStallone,Jason Stathamand othercastmembersof The Expendables 3– held upsignboards bearingthe samemessage.

As President GoodluckJonathan’s perceivedincompetencewas put on worldwide display,itbecameobvious thathis days in office were numbered GeneralMuhammaduBuhari,who had previouslycontestedthree times unsuccessfully,wasdulypresentedas the messiahwho wouldpullNigeriaout ofthedoldrums. Hepromisedtorescue

thegirlsand defeattheIslamicmilitants of Boko Haram. Buhari also vowedto tacklethecorruptionthathadcharacterisedJonathan’sadministration,and to revive the economythatwasalready bleeding from fallingoil pricesand a corruptpetrol-subsidy regime

Buharimadehistory by beingthe firstmanto defeat asitting presidentin Nigerian history

However, hisvictorydidnot hinge solelyonhiscampaignpromises. There wasalso anethnoreligious factortied tothe gentlemen’s agreementknownas ‘zoning’, through which powerrotates betweennorthandsouth.

Thenorthhad been outofpower fortoo long;its leadershipbelieved it washightimefor anorthernerto be President.Thentherewas a

governors’revolt,inwhich Jonathan lostthesupportofmost of thenorthernstates. The south-west, ledbyBola Tinubu,alsofollowed up withvotestohelpBuharisecure victory.

Willthatsameethnoreligious factorstillbethe keydeterminant? No,saysPeterObi,presidential challenger forthe Labour Party: “I believethiselectionwillbemore aboutcharacter,competence, capacityandcommitment.Itisno longerabouttheparty,ethnicity, religion,oranythingotherthanthe need tosave this country,” hesays

Movingtargets

Obiisrightinthesensethatnotwo electionsarethesame.Unusually, thisoneis athree-horse race.Obi

isupagainstthecandidatesofthe twomainparties –Tinubuofthe rulingAll Peoples Congress(APC) and AtikuAbubakarofthe People’s DemocraticParty(PDP).Allarein with achance.

Thefrontlinecandidatesare diverse,andsoisthepolitical scenario. Nevertheless, insecurity has remainedaconstant.Itmay have disappeared fromthepreoccupationsofcelebrities,butthe threatisactually worsethanit was in2015.While Boko Haramhas beendislodged inthenorth- east, thefightershave nowspreadto thenorth-westandnorth-central, killingthousandsandabducting evenmore.

Schools were forced toshut downonmanyoccasions,with morethan20millionchildrennow outofschool. At least98ofthe schoolgirlsabductedfromChibok remainincaptivity.Farmers have fled theirland,thousands ofprisonershave escapedjail, andsecessionistsareholdingthe south- eastto ransom.

Thecountry ’s human-rights recordonBuhari’swatchhas

beenabysmal,characterised by adisregardforcourtorders and extrajudicialkilling;almost 348ShiiteMuslims were killed by soldiersin asingleday in December2015.

Highpoverty,lowpower

Aside from theongoingsecurity issues, the economyisintatters. Thisproblemisatthe forefrontof everycampaignspeechmadeby the leadingcontenders.

Despitemorethan$7bnbeing spentonsocialinvestmentprogrammesbyBuhari’sadministration,at least133millionNigerians nowliveinabjectpoverty. Unemploymentstandsat33%, risingtonearly50%among young people. Thenairaisatarecord low, whilethepetrolsubsidyisat anall-timehigh,with over$40m spentdailyinanopaquemanner.

Energyshouldbethe economic lifebloodofanoilandgas producerlikeNigeria.The reality: farfromit. Dysfunctionalpower supplies costbusinessesinNigeria nearly$30bn ayear, according tothe WorldBank.Only

PeterObi,flanked byrunningmate YusufDatti Baba-Ahmed,and hiswife,Margaret

1%ofAfrica’s totalelectric powerinstallationisinNigeria, andbarely 4- 5GWreachesthe population.

Thestateoil refineries remain comatose,evenasthecountry suffersperiodicpetrolscarcity; theprivate-sector refinery long promisedbybillionaireAliko Dangoteis yettostart,withthe latest reportsgivingthestartdate as early2023.

The governmenthaspointedto Dangote’s initiativeasasignof tangibleprogress, butinpractice hasbeen farkeenertousestate powertoshapethecountry's economictrajectorythantotrust theprivatesector.

One Dangote executivetold The Africa Report, onconditionof anonymity,thattheBuhariadministrationhadneverbeenhostile, butithadoccasionallybeen unhelpful,suchasinappearingto back araftofcompetingstate refineries insteadofhelping Dangotefinishhis.

Train 7oftheNigeria LiquidPetroleumGas project –run by western shareholders –shouldbe helpedbyEuropeangas demand,butthesigning intolawbyBuhariofthe PetroleumIndustry Act in2021comes20years toolate,giventoday’s green-energytrendlines. Shell’sB onga South WestAparo project,for example, mayneverseethelightofday, whileTotalEnergies is downplayingnewinvestmentinprospection.

Oilcorruption

Thecountryisnotmakingmoney fromoil,accordingtothe Central Bank.Mysteriouspipelineshave recentlybeendiscoveredthat siphon away 400,000barrelsof oildaily.A linked fact:debtis atanall-timehigh,withNigeria

nowpayingmoreonservicing its debtthanithasincome –thus borrowingmorejusttopaythe existing debt.

The worldhastakennotice. Foreigndirectinvestmenthas fallensharplywhilecorruptionhas worsened, despiteincreasedconvictions.Tohiscredit,Buharihas investedheavilyininfrastructure, constructingnewroads,airport terminalsand railways.Hehas boostedtax revenues, too,which hascushionedtheeffectoflow oil receipts.Riceproductionhas

2019ELECTION RESULTS

APCPDP

In2019,MuhammaduBuhari(APC)was reelectedwith19ofthe36states. Atiku Abubakar(PDP),victoriousin17statesandin Abuja,initiallyrejectedtheresults.Themap showsthedistinctnorth-southdivisionin votingallegiances,which Atiku,a northern Muslim,hopestochallengethisyear.

increased–butsohasthecostof thisbasicfoodstuff.Inflationnow standsat over21%.

Buhari’sadministrationblames the economicchallenges onthe systemicrotitinherited,andthe Covid-19pandemicthatgrounded commercialactivities and forced thecountryinto arecession. So howare thecandidatespositioning themselves on theeconomy?

Fiscalhope

Awareofthechallenges,but eagernottocriticise therecord of apresident fromhisownparty, Tinubuisnowrunningona campaignof ‘renewedhope’. He promisestoboost revenue by using thetemplatehe createdinLagos, which resultedina10-foldincrease instate revenueonhis watch.

Tinubuisnot promisingtojail corruptpeople. Instead,hesays hewillputinplace acreditsystem thatwillimprove accessto financeand reduce thetendencyfor corruption.

Healsoplans to remove the petrolsubsidy andincrease cruitmentintothe militarytoaddress thesecuritychallenge.

yNigerians,however, wary of reelectinga partythathasnotlived upto pectations.

The70-year-old Lagos godfatherplanstoemulate Buhari’spathtovictorybywinning all14Muslim-majoritystatesin thenorthandthesixstatesinthe south-west.Tothisend, Tinubuis runningon ajointMuslimticket toboosthispopularityinBuhari’s corebase.Theopportunitycost istheChristian votesinthenorth, thesouth- east,andthesouth-south NigerDelta region.

“Wemaintainourview thatthe rulingparty ’s BolaAhmed

Tinubuisthecandidate mostlikelytowinthepresidentialelectionas asplitopposition votewill favourtheAP C,” says a FitchSolutions CountryRiskand Industry Research report.

Indeed,with21outofthe36 governorsmembersoftheAP C, coupled withthefactthattheyare allactivelyinvolved in campaign financingandmobilisation, Tinubu remainsthemantobeat.

PeterObiiscontestingasan anti- establishmentcandidate.The ex-governorofAnambraStateis known forhisprudenceinoffice andhopestoreplicatethisatthe federallevel.Hismantrais‘from consumptiontoproduction’, which meanshehopestoreduceimports by boosting localmanufacturing. This,hebelieves,willcreatemore jobsand reducethepressureon Nigeria’s foreign reserves,stabilisingthe localcurrency.

Healsoplanstoinvestheavilyin securitysothat farmerscan return totheirlandsandincrease food productionand export.

The formerbankchairman enjoys alarge followingamong urban youth.Hehasinheritedthe #EndSARSbasethat ledprotests inseveralstatesagainstpolice brutalityin2020.

Politicsinthepews

As anethnic IgbofromthesoutheastandtheonlyChristianwitha fightingchanceofvictory,Obi’s strategyistosweepthe votesinthe 11 Christian- dominatedsouth- east andNigerDeltastates. Heisalso targetingtheurbanandliberal youthsin Lagos, as wellasthe ChristianMiddle Belt regionin thenorthandthe federalcapital, Abuja.Thisis verysimilarto Jonathan’s pathtovictoryinthe 2011poll.

“If yougotoeveryChristian villageinNigeria,theywilltell you theyare supporting PeterObi.Itis beingdiscussedineverychurch,”

says Babachir Lawal, aformer allyof Tinubuwhoonceserved as secretarytoBuhari.

However, Obiwillfindit difficulttomakeinroadsintothe coreMuslimnorthandtherural partsofthesouth-west.Healso lacksagrassrootsbaseinseveral states, andhispartyisnot wellknownnationally.

At 76,formervice-president AtikuAbubakarofthePDPisthe oldestofthecandidatesandis running forarecordsixthtime.He says heplanstounifythecountry, whichhaswitnessedsecessionist agitationsinthesouth. Atikualso planstoselloffdilapidatedgovernment facilities liketheoil refineries,andprivatisethenation’s oil companyoutright.

Forhim,thesub-national blocsinNigeriashouldbegiven morecontroloftheir resources, whiletheprivatesectorrunsthe economy, leavingthe government to regulate.Hebelieves thiswill

morethan doubleNigeria’s GDPin four years.

Atikuseekstoretainthe PDP baseinthe 11 Christiansouthern statesthatthe partyhasbeen winningsince1999.A Muslim northerner(asopposedtoTinubu, aMuslim southerner),heisalso targeting Buhari’sbaseinthe 14 Muslim-majoritystatesin thenorth.

Geography,partyorreligion?

However, Atiku’s campaignhas beenunderminedbyinfightingin thePDPasfiveofthe14 governors havevowednottocampaign for him.These governors,led by Nyesom Wike ofoil-richRivers State,haveremainedhisalbatross.

PeterObi’srisingpopularityin theChristiansouth,as wellasthe strengthoftheAPC intheMuslim north, remainsignificant challenges forAtiku.Thisis worsened by awidespreadfeelingthat powershouldreturntothesouth inthespiritof fairness.Atikuis relyingontheMuslimnorthto deliverthe goods.

“Politicsis agameofnumbers. Anytimethereare twomain southerncandidatesagainsta northerncandidate,thenorthern candidatewillalwayswin.And 2023willnotbedifferent,” says veteranjournalistDeleMomodu, whoalso doubles asspokesman forAtiku’s campaign.

AFOLABI SOTUNDE/REUTERS

Atiku’s youth wingsupporters inAbuja

Obiwillfindit difficulttomake inroadsintothe coreMuslimnorth

INTERVIEW

AtikuAbubakar ‘Abachatried to kill me in my ownhouse’

NICHOLASNORBROOK

AtikuAbubakar wasjustcomingof agewhenNigeriagaineditsindependencein1960.Now 76,having lived throughcivil warandmilitary rule, he fearsthat“the younger generationofpoliticianswhoare goingtosucceed usarelosingthat pan-Nigeriaphilosophy–they neverget exposedtootherpartsof thecountry.”

Hecontraststhiswithhis own journey. “I wasbornandgrew up inthenorth,butjoinedthe federal service,[which]enabled meto walk inallpartsofthecountry,mostly inthesouth. Becauseofthat,I wasabletobuildbridges,[make] friendsandsoon. IneverknewI wasgoingtojoinpolitics.Iwas aimingtohelp my department.”

Hispoliticalmentor,thelate Shehu Yar’Adua(Nigeria’s de facto vicepresidentduringmilitaryrule from1976-1979), wasasimilarly well-travelled operator.“He was oneofthoseNigerianswhohad aproperunderstandingofthe country,” saysAtiku. Yar’Adua’s politicallyactivefamily“influencedhisthinkingtowards democracy, even thoughhe was amilitaryman[…].He recruited me,[and]encouraged meonthe journey, to fightforthe returnof

democracy. TherewasnothingI waslooking forwardtomorethan aShehu Yar’Aduapresidency.”

It wasnottobe.Yar ’Adua was arrestedbyG eneralSaniAbacha in1995,alongwithOlusegun Obasanjo,and wascondemned to deathaftercalling forareturn to democracy. Thesentence was commutedtolifeimprisonment, buthedied injailin1997.

Appealtothenorth

Inthechaosofthe1990s,Atiku wentinto exilewhiletheAbacha deathsquadsprowledthestreets. “Abachatried tokillmein my own housesimplybecause Iinsisted on aspecificperiodtobesetaside forhanding overtodemocracy,” hesays.Did hefinditstrangeto heartheAll Progressives Congress (APC)vice-presidentialcandidate, KashimShettima, recentlypraising Abachaonthecampaigntrail?

“Well, Ithinkit wasoutofsheer ethnicsolidarity,” saysAtiku.

IfShettimaistryingtoappeal tothenorth, Atiku’s electoral strategyissimilar.HisAP Crival, Bola Tinubu,isfromthesouth. However, accordingtothe gentlemen’s agreementknownas ‘zoning’, presidentialpowershould rotatefromnorthtosouthinthis electoral cycle. Atikubacked

Interviewby

Runningforthesixthtimeinthepresidential elections,thePDPcandidatefromthenorth wantstoturnaroundBuhari’slegacythrough regionalintegration

KEYPEOPLE

Aminu Tambuwal

FatimaAtikuAbubakar

ArthurOkowaIfeanyi

zoningin2011and2015.Though heclaimsitis “still relevant”,in practiceheseemshappytojunkit.

Hemakes thepointthat,though heand PresidentMuhammadu BuhariarebothFulaniMuslims, theirapproachandpolicies are“almostopposite”. “Ithink Nigeriansshouldrateusonour individualbeliefs, onthefuture ofthecountry ratherthanour ethnicityor even religion,”hesays.

StandinguptoSharia

Atiku’s insistenceonseparating religionandpoliticscaused him acertainamountofgrief whileservingasvicepresidentto Obasanjo(1999 -2006).Sixmonths afterhisinvestiture, governors inthenorthpushedtointroduce Sharia.Someanalystssaythis was themomentwhenNigeriastarted oncemoretobedragged apartinto itsconstituentblocs,with Yorubas demanding asovereignnational conferenceandIgbospushing for greaterautonomy.

Atikuagrees. “Itisquitelikely. Iwastheonlynorthernpolitician whostoodupagainstShariaatthat time.Iwasmobbedinthenorth, anywhereIwent.Eventually,Iwas provedrightbecauseitfizzled out, and we knewthatitwasjusttowin elections,andthosewhobrought

it wontheirelectionsandthey leftwithit.”

Federatingthenorthbehindhim isnothisonlychallenge. Healso mustbringhispartytogether.In 2019,heran forpresidentwith PeterObiin acampaignthat featured grassrootspoliticians likeRabiu Kwankwaso.Hehadthe supportofallthe governorsinhis party.While theSupreme Court disagreed,manyobserverscalled theelectioninhis favour.

Today, fourPDP governors,led by Nyesom Wike,haverefusedto joinhiscampaign,whileObiand Kwankwasoarecontestingontheir own. Fromtheoutside,itlooks likethePDPis ahousedivided.

Atiku rejectsthis.“No,I don’t thinkthisis afaircharacterisation.Thereisnopartythat does nothave its owninternalcrisis,” hesays.“LookattheAP Ctoday [earlyNovember];firstofall,they have beenunableeventoconstitute theircampaigncouncil.”

ThePDPcandidatehopeshis experiencechairingseveralprivatisationpanelswillhelp.“Ibelieve thatthe governmenthasno role in NNP C, honestly,” Atikusays about statecontrolofNigeria’s national oilcompany.

Hesees amuchgreater role for Nigeriainthewiderregion,after

Buhari’sinsularapproach.“We are completely surrounded by francophonecountries. Fromwestto easttothenorth.Socooperation betweenushasbecomeinevitable,” saysAtiku.

Robustforeignpolicy

“That’swhy Ihaveundertaken atour[…]ofthefrancophone countries –I have metthe leaders ofSenegal, Côted’Ivoire, andI assured themthatNigeriais going tocomebackwith arobust West African foreignpolicy,[like that] experiencedduringtheperiodof Obasanjoand myself.”

Hehas notime forthejuntasin Mali, Guine aandBurkinaFaso, ontheotherhand. “Ofcourse, it is athreattodemocracy,and we willnotacceptthat.Iwilloperate withcurrent democraticregime s in We stAfrica. We have to work togetherto reversetheincursion ofmilitaryregime s.”

Nor does heruleoutaninvestigationathome,shouldhewinpower. Speakingonthesudden ‘discovery ’ of mysterious pipelinessiphoning off400,000barrelsof crudea day, Atikusays: “Itis aconspiracy –withallthe actors,fromNNPC tocommunity leaders,tosecurity forces.Wewill identifythose responsible, and deal withit.”

Anexperiencedpoliticiananddiplomat, the56-year-oldgovernorofSokoto StatestoodagainstAtikutobethe PDP’scandidatein2018.

SeveralofAtiku’s28childrenare active inpolitics.Fatima,anobstetrician, wascommissionerforhealthinAPCcontrolledAdamawaState.

Astrategicchoiceforvicepresident, theIgbo-speakinggovernorofDelta State hasdistancedhimself fromhis politicalgodfather,JamesIbori.

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By ENIOLAAKINKUOTU

Bola Tinubu,70, has never revealed muchabouthis earlylife. But one thingisundisputed: his dogged determinationtosucceed andan ability to wriggle out ofproblematic situations.

In a rare interview with The News magazineback in 2012, Tinubu spoke abouthow hemade his way totheUSwithsomefriendsinthe 1970sand began doingmenial jobs

Tinubusaid that, while working as a driver, he was once slapped by a naval officerwho didn’tagree with his fare. “Another experience was whenI took a guy whomI didn’tknow was drunk WhenI drove tohishouse, hepointeda gun atmeinsteadofpaying the fare Hetook my leatherjacketandsaid: ‘Getinto yourcar and get lost.’ He did not pay,” Tinubuadded.

Fromtaximantopolitics

Hemade his way to Chicago State University, where hegraduated with honoursinaccountingin1979, then worked for several USaccounting firms. On returningto Nigeria in the1983, he gota job at MobilOil Nigeriaasanauditor.

In1993, Tinubu cameunder investigation for alleged heroin trafficking going backtohistimein theUS. He settled with US authorities and forfeited $460,000tothe government.

Thisdid notseem to harmhis politicalcareerinNigeria,which hadbegun a year earlier, in1992. JoiningtheSocial Democratic Party, he was elected tothe Senateinthe short-lived Nigerian Third Republic, before General Sani Abacha’s militarycoupof November1993.

A confidentialUSdiplomatic cable spilled by Wikileaks, dated 21 February2003, states that Tinubu confirmed it was his now rival Atiku Abubakarwhoconvinced himtoenter politics. He

KOLA SULAIMON/AFP

KEYPEOPLE

joineda groupwithinthe SDPknownas PRIMROSE (People Resolved Irrevocably to Maximise the Resources oftheState for Excellence),whichincluded several politicalheavyweights in Lagos.

After Tinubu won theSenate race, thenext task was to get Shehu Yar’Aduatoemerge asthe presidential candidate of the SDP, but Yar’Adua was disqualified by the military,pavingthe way for MKO Abiola,who would go ontowin theparty’s ticketand run inthe annulled June12, 1993elections.

Tinubujoined the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) protestmovement Heandseveral others were detained by the military juntabut werereleased. “Idisguised [myself[ witha huge turban and babanrigaand escaped into Benin Republic on a motorbike,” he recalls

TaxmaninLagos

Afterthe death ofAbachain1998, Tinubu returned toNigeriaand won the governorshipof Lagos State, whichhe governed for eight years Duringthistime, he reengineered thestate finances throughbettertax enforcement, increasingthestate’s revenueten-fold.

But,intheprocessofchanging thestate’s finances, he wasaccused ofcorneringcontracts forhimself andfriends. Towardstheendof histenure, Tinubumadeitclear thathischiefofstaff,Babatunde Fashola, wouldbehissuccessor. Thisangered manyintheparty and ledtomass defections. Fashola wentontowinthepollas Tinubucementedhisplaceasthe godfatherof Lagospolitics.

By 2011, hehadstretched his influencetofive other states contiguous with Lagos, sponsoring candidates towin governorshipelections. Withpolitical dexterity, he negotiated with PresidentMuhammadu Buhariandothersto formtheAll Peoples Congressin2013. Thenew

Seyi Tinubu

party wentontowinthepresidentialelectiontwo yearslater

“Hetried firsttimeand failed. Hetried second timeand failed. He tried third timeand failed He even cried ontelevisionthathewillnever run for presidentagain. I wentto meethimandtold himthisisnot a cryingmatter. We willsupport you and you willbepresident,” Tinubu saidof Buhariin May.

Theissueoffaith

Withthesupportof President Buhariand21 governors, plus a huge war chest, Tinubu, asthe rulingparty ’s candidate, already hasone leg inthepresidential villa. But, as a Muslim, hiscandidacy contravenesa traditionthat ensures a balanced faith ticket

“It is only after winningthat I can change thecharacter, content and approachof governancesothat you canparticipate,” hetolda gathering ofChristianclerics in a bid to pacifythem.However, hiscandidature hasstillnotbeenembraced by theconservative Christian establishment

The AP C candidatebelieves theprivatesector is the engineof the economy andseeks toend the petrolsubsidythatgulps down $40m daily, as wellasthemultiple exchange rates. Tinubu forecasts a steady10%annualincreasein Nigeria’s GDPthatwillensure a GDPof$780.9bn by 2027. He hopes to replicate histax- collectingsuccessin Lagos at the federal level by expanding thetaxnetbut without increasing existing taxes.

SimonLalong

“Highertaxes drainanalready weakened private sector, inviting possible economic contractionand higherunemployment,” hesays

The presidentialhopeful promises that states willhave a greaterautonomy and a fairershare oftheir resources. Tinubu seeksa constitutionalamendmenttoensure thatstates begivengreaterpowers inthearea oftax collection.

GovernorLalong ofPlateau State is the APC’s campaigndirector. Thoughhe denies it isa factor, his Christianfaithhelpstobalance the Muslim-Muslim ticket.

An advertisingandtechentrepreneur, co-founder ofLoatsad Promomedia, Tinubu’s sonSeyiis rallyingthe youth votefor hisdad.

KashimShettima

Tinubu’s runningmate, the Senator forBorno Central andformer governor, is a northernMuslimand a banker knownfor his biting wit.

NOAM GALAI / AFP

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GAMEOFTHRONES

Bat leground states to watchin2023

Nigeria’skeyelectoralstrugglesareoverwhorulesthe country’smostpopulous –andmostwealthy –states

By ENIOLAAKINKUOTU, inAbuja

RIVERS ST AT E VS

(PDP) MAGNUSABE (SDP)

Historically,RiversState,whichholds 4.65%ofthetotal number of voters,isalwaysvolatileduringelections.In2015, thestate was dubbe d‘Riversofblood’ by theme diabe causeof theviolenceit witnessed.This worsened in 2019,withat least10peoplekille d, includingelectoralofficialsandsecurityagents.

Theoil-richstate,whichhastheappellation ‘Treasurebaseof thenation’, isthesecond wealthieststateafter Lagos. Rivers,which hasbeenrun by PDP governorNyesom Wike since2015,oughtto bean easy winfortheparty.However,Wikehasbeenengaged in aheatedandpublicisedfeudwiththeparty leadershipsince losing the Presidentialprimaryto AtikuAbubakarinMay.

Wike hasvowedtoensurethat Atiku losesthestate,andhasappointed 200,000polling-unitadvisers,whowillserveasfootsoldierson electiondaytoensurethathisinstructionsarefollowed totheletter. Recently,asupporterof Atiku wasattacked witha machete forputting uppostersofhiscandidateinthestate.

OtherPDPcandidate scontesting governorship and legislative positionshave not beenonthe samepageasWike, astheybelieve his attacksagainstthePDPcould alsounderminetheir chancesat thepolls.Therisingpopularityofthe Labour Party ’s PeterObiinthe state,aswell asthefeudbetweenWikeandhiserstwhileboss, Rotimi AmaechioftheAP C, wouldalsocontributetothecomplexityofthe politicsinthestate.RiversStatewillbeanothertheatreoftheabsurd.

Nigeria, anationof around 93.5 million peoplescatteredacross 36states,willelect a newpresidenton25 February inwhathas turnedouttobean unusualthree-horse race.The powerful state governorswill be electedtwoweekslater (withthe exceptionof three states).Although the presidentiselected via aone-person, one-votesystem,the gubernatorialcanvasing instatescanshapethe outcomeofthepoll.So, howwillthisgameof thronesplayout?

In 2015the Peoples DemocraticParty (PDP)polled1.4mvotes inthepresidential election,asopposed to 69,238 votesfortheAll Progressives Congress (APC).Nyesom Wike, aministeratthe time, playedavital role in thevictoryof thePDP in RiversState.Today, asstate governor, Wike is doingthe exact opposite,vowingto ensurethat thePDP losesthepresidential poll inRivers even thoughheisstilla partymember.

In manyotherstates, internalcontradictionsand frictionsare reshapingthepolitical landscape,makingit difficult forpollsters andanalyststopredict theoutcomeofthe race.

SIMINALAYIFUBARA

NASIRYUSUF GAWUNA (APC)

VS

SADIQ WALI (PDP)

ThecommercialcapitalofnorthernNigeriahas the second-largestnumber of registered voters after Lagos. Inthepasttwoele ctions,thestate produce dt helar ge stnumberof vo te sforthe AP C. Howeve r, theunpopularityof Gove rnor AbdullahiGanduje;thecult followingofhisprede cessor,Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso,whoisthe

NENTAWE YILWATDA GOSHWE (APC)

ABBAKABIR YUSUF (NNPP)

presidentialcandidateoftheNewNigeria Peoples Party(NNPP);andthe factthat AtikuAbubakar ofthePDPisanethnicFulani,makes thestate anotherbattleground zone.In2019,Ganduje won thegubernatorialelectiononthesecondballotin apolldescribe dasoneofthemostviolentinthe state’s history.

CALEB MUTFWANG (PDP)

Plateau istheno r ther nb ase ofChristianityinNigeria, led by Gove rnorSimo nL along, whoalsohappenstobethe campaignmanagerof Bo la Tinubu(theAPC’spresidential candidate). Tinubu’scandidacy hasbeen rejectedbythenorthern Christian es tablishment fo r runningon aMuslim/Muslim ticket.G overnor Lalong,who only wo nree le ctiononthe secondballotin2019,wasunable to deliverthestateto President Buhariin2019.The governor hasseenhis popularitydecline recently,especiallyinthe face ofethnoreligiousviolencein thestate.Hisarduoustaskof sellinganall-Muslimticketto aChristianpopulation, coupled withthedallianceofthestate’s Christian establishmentwith Atiku and Obi,makesthestate a‘must watch’inthe election

VS VS

Nigeria’s commercialcapital hasbeensuperintended byformergovernor Bola Tinubudirectly andindirectlysince1999.Thestatehasthehighest numberof registered voters inthecountry,but,ironically,the lowest voterturnout.

Although Lagosishistorically aYorubamajority state,itsstatusas aformernationalcapitalandNigeria’s mostcosmopolitanstatemakes it ameltingpotof cultures.Ofthe20 localgovernmentareas,atleastfive –Surulere, Amuwo-Odofin, Ojo, Oshodi-Isoloand Ajeromi-Ifelodun –havea large concentrationofIgbo andNigerDelta indigenes, whousually voteagainst theAP C. Frustratedbythis development,theObaof Lagos, RilwanAkiolu,controversiallypronounced in2015thatallIgbopeoplethatvotedagainstthe wishesofthe YorubapeopleinLagos woulddrown inthelagoon– butthis wasnotenoughtoscarethem. Aheadofthe2023poll,there areallegationsofan attempt by theAP Cleadershipinthestateto exert itsauthority by suppressing votesinareasthatcould beplanningto voteagainst Tinubu.Thiswillalsobe resistedbysupportersof PeterObiand Atiku,making Lagosanother battleground state

BABAJIDE SANWO-OLU (APC)

GBADEBO RHODES-VIVOUR (LP)

ABDUL-AZEEZ OLAJIDE ADEDIRAN (PDP)

ourwritershavelookedaheadtowhat iscomingdownthepike:elections inmajoreconomieslikeNigeriaand theDRC,heroeswhoareleading byexample,energydeals,and fast-changingregionalalliances.

Elections,debt, security… but the Afrobeatgoeson

Tfocusin2023willbeonthetwobigelections in WestAfrica.TheblockbusterinNigeria thatsees theend of the Buhari regimeandthe startofsomethingnew, whoeverwins.The raceishardtocall, evenifthefrontrunner remains BolaAhmedTinubu.Manyinthe regionhope itwillmeanmoremeaningfulNigeriancooperationin bodies like theEconomicCommunityof WestAfrican States andthe African Continental Free Trade Area.The lesssuspensefulpollistothe westinLiberia(seeGeorge Weahprofileopposite).

These eventswillhave toshare thespotlightwith otherpressing regionalconcerns.Thefirstisthecreep

ofmilitantactivities downfromtheSahelandtowards the coastalstatesofWestAfrica. Beninand Togo want a rapid-response force, whilethe endofOpérationBarkhane inthe Sahel leaves avacuumthat Russia’s Wagner Group willwillinglyfill.Thesecondistheurgentneed to reboot economies feelingtheeffectsofinflationandgrinding debt levels.WillanIMF dealwithGhanabecutintime tostopanyseriousdamagetothe economy?

It won’tstoptheirrepressiblecultural forces of West Africaintheirglobaltakeover:fromBurna Boyand Wizkidtonew talents likeBlackSherifinGhanaand AsakeinNigeria,thereisagrowing internationalappetite formusicfromthe region.

POPULATION (inmillions)

GDP(2021,US$) (%ofregionaltotal) 787.21bn

SierraLeone BurkinaFaso

Senegal

4.1bn (>1%) 27.54bn (3%) Nigeria

Benin Togo Cabo Verde Côted’Ivoire TheGambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Mali Niger

17.55bn (2%) 8.36bn (1%) 18.27bn (2%) 2.05bn (>1%) 68.63bn (9%) 2.17bn (>1%) 76bn (10%) 19.75bn (3%) 3.9bn (>1%) 1.62bn (>1%) 18.43bn (2%) 14.64bn (2%) 504.2bn (64%)

Benin BurkinaFaso Cabo Verde Côted’Ivoire TheGambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal SierraLeone Togo

050100150200 28 32

Liberia George Weah

Slipping

oneintothenet

WhenLiberians go tothepollsin Oct ober2 02 3, th ey arel ikely to choose George Weah forasecond andfinaltermaspresident.But Weah does notenjoy country-widepopularity.Withina yearoftakingoffice in2018,the country wasrocked by hugedemonstrationsagainstthecost of livingand governmentcorruption.

Despiteinitialsetbacks, We ah stillhas afew tricksuphissleeve, beyondthewidespreadnostalgiafor hisdays playing foreliteEuropean managerslikeArsène Wenger,and the reflectedglory of watchinghis sonscoreagoalfortheUSatthe WorldCup.

Thefirstis aTeflondispositionto corruptionallegations.Millionsof dollars have disappearedfromthe centralbank.Governmentauditors who were investigatinggrafthave beenmurdered. Revelationsabout themanyunreportedproperties that Weah ownsinLiberia,theUSand France,aswellasmultiplepaternity

Total g y help grease the tic politics. The mains snarled up nea junta’s chaotic decision making. : a campaign to d of the electoral om Weah’s team elp in any efforts s. s i t i o n r eT h e yer ’ e

13 22 1 3 15 2 5 21 26 217 18 8 9

suits,haveraisedfew eyebrows. Weah’s trumpcardmay be economic:anagreementona railway throughLiberiafromSimandouin Guinea–oneofthe world’slargest depositsofironore. Ifthecontract goes through,itmeans alargerent thatwillcertainly wheelsof domes deal,however, rem inthecurrent Guin andself-interested Ifallelse fails dislodgethe head commission,who believewillnothe torigtheelections

We ah ’s oppos main sd iv id ed ‘poorman’s lawy Ti awan Go ngl o mayral ly l ar ge crowds, but heis unlikelytobreak through.Former vice-president

Joseph Boakaiisuninspirationalat77 yearsofage. AlexanderCummings, aformer Coca-Cola executive, was throwninprisoninJanuary by Weah’s regimeonunlikelycharges of falsifyingcoalition documents–something thatCummingscommissioned Cherie Blairto rebutina 16-pagedocument. Phonenetworkandshippingmagnate BenoniUrey isalsoflexinghishuge fortunetorun,havingbankrolled Weahinprevious rounds.The result islikelytobe asplitopposition vote thatwillallowWeahtoslipthrough.

JEAN-MARC

AFRICA’SREGIONSIN2023

West Africa Open forbusiness

ALIKODANGOTE

Africa’s richestman shouldfinallylaunch operationsathis refinery this year,kickstarting aregionalenergy ecosystemandgiving him amuch-needed incomestreamtorepay thesubstantial debts incurred inbuildingit.

MIKEADENUGA

TheGlochairman launchedmobile-money serviceMoneyMaster PSB –short forPayment ServiceBank –inlate October2022,andis hopingtoembedthe serviceinthealready crowded Nigerianfintech environment.

Nigeria Hopesinthe region

Nigeriagoestothe pollsin February,inthe year’s most anticipatedelection.Whatwill WestAfrica behopingtoseeafterthedustsettles?

Thefirstthing wouldbea newopenness.Under PresidentMuhammaduBuhari,Nigeria’sborders –andattitudetowardstheregion– wererelatively non-porous.Buhari even wentso faras to close theborder with Beninin 2019, totry tocurbrice smugglingandprotectthe country ’s rice farmers. Thisnationalist economicapproach wasalso foundin Nigeria’s foot-draggingapproachtothe African Continental Free Trade Area.Buhari finallysigned Nigeriaupin August2019,buthas hardlybeenpushing forthefree-trade zone’s

TIDJANETHIAM

Isthe formerCredit Suisseboss readyto hanguphisbusiness ambitions?Having mergedhisSPAC with aCalifornian gentech company, heisnow creatingpoliticalsupport groupsin Côted’Ivoire. Watchthisspace.

COURACARINESENE

The WestAfricaboss offintech Wave is creating …well, waves, inthemobile-money space.TheUS-based companydeployedthe tough-talkingSeneto the region,rufflingthe feathersof dominant playerOrangeMoney.

success,preferringtobuildupthecountry’s industrial fabric behindtariffbarriers.

Second on thelist wouldbea morecomprehensiveengagementwith regionalsecurityefforts intheSahel. Buharihasnot robustlyengaged in collectivesecurityeffortsinthe region,unlike previous presidentssuchasOlusegunObasanjo, whoknew howtothrow Nigerianmilitarymuscle around.Butthatis nottheonly problem:Nigeria isnowthe hostandoriginatorofmuchofthe insecurity.Itsinabilitytosecureitsnorthern bordersis providing rearbasestomilitantswho operateinNiger, Cameroon andfurtherafield.Far from destroyingtheBokoHaramthreat as he had promised,Buhariadmitted ontelevisionin2021 thathehad failed toeradicatethemilitantgroup. AnywinningcandidateinFebruary2023who says “Nigeriaisback andopen forbusiness!” will gaininstantfriendsacrossthe region.

ERIC LARRA YA DIEU/AFRICA CEO FORUM/JA; AFOLABI SOTUNDE/REUTERS; FRANÇOIS GRIVELET FOR JA; ALL RIGHTS RESER VED

AFRICA’SREGIONSIN2023

Ghana/Senegal/Côte d’Ivoire/Nigeria

Dealing with debt

Does West Africa have a debtproblem?

Many countri es we re alrea dy overextended when 2020began.Nigeria, Ghana, Côted’Ivoire andSenegal were the WestAfricanheavyweightsthat had a debt-to-GDP ratio ofmore than 100% between2015 and2020. Covid-19andthe ensuing low tide revealed whichcountries hadbeenswimming without a costume

A strengtheningUS dollarhascomplicated matters – making repaymentson dollar-denominated foreign debtmore expensivein localcurrency–coupled withbitinginflationaggravated by the war inUkraine

Inthefront row ofthiscrisisare the many Ghanaians now sufferingfrom pricerises thathitthe family shopping basket. They have been conveyingtheir angertopoliticiansacrossthepolitical divide, puttingfinanceminister Ken Ofori-Atta’s jobontheline(he was still inpostatthetimeofwriting).

Ghana owessome$54bn,$28bnof whichisto foreigncreditors. The countryspent$2.2bn servicing external debt in2021 –a level thatmany believe is unsustainable. Thecountry was locked outoftheEurobondmarketafterbeing downgraded, andisnow negotiating withtheIMF.

Transparencyistheanswer

Whathappensnext? Hopefully, some external debt restructuring, says Theophilus AcheampongofAberdeenUniversity, who recommends learningfromZambia’s recent experience. Hepointstothemany opportunities toenhancetransparency withinGhana’s public-financemachinery, whichiscurrently estimated tocapture only a third oftransactions, leavingample room for corruption.

Thedifferencebetwe enGhanaand Senegalbecomes clear inthemostimportantmetric when dealingwith debt: theabilitytopay it back. IMF figures showe d that, for Ghana, theprimary

budget deficit(excluding repaymentof external debt)in2020 would reach 9.3% ofGDP, in2020, compared to 4.3%in Senegal and 3.7% in Côted’Ivoire. Senegalmay wellhave le ssons for Ghanaianadministrators. Ithasknuckled downto reform domestic taxcollection underanIMFprogramme,stabilising its debtburden, resultinginMoody ’s revisingitsoutlook fromnegative to stable inMarch2022.While Ghanahas potentially lost$1.5bnon a gas-import schemethatit maynever use, Senegal isnow benefitingfromitsgas-export projectscomingon stream.

Côte d’Ivoire hashardlyneeded theIMF touch.Thoughthecostof debtservicing has exploded – by above 300%according tosome calculations – it remainsmanageable as a percentage oftotal government revenue Tax collectionimproved from 12.3%to13%ofGDPin2021, thoughthis isstill low by internationalstandards.

InNigeria – where tax collectionis a global failure at6%ofGDP – debtis a toughernuttocrack Theministerof finance, ZainabUsman, rangthealarm bellwhensheannounced thatthecost ofservicingNigeria’s debtsinthefirst quarterof2022 – someN1.94trn – was N310bn higherthanthe revenuethecountry received during that period.

While Nigeriasitsonhuge oilandgas reserves, massive theft in recent years –a national emergency according tooil minister Timipre Sylva– meansthatmost Nigerianshave been missing out. The countrycould not evenbenefitfromthe recentriseinoil prices becauseitstillhas nopetrol-refiningcapacity, soimportsof refined petrolhave eatenintoany gains. Whoever succeeds theBuhari regime willhave their workcutout for them.“For the foreseeable future, Nigeria seems trapped in a recurrent loopofprofligate spending, unfettered borrowingandcascading revenue”, writes Ebenezer Obadare of the Council on Foreign Relations

PUBLIC EXTERNALDEBT millionsUS dollars

In12 Africancountries,thestockof public externaldebtincreasedbyat least100%between2015and2020.

Sahel Threats in a vacuum

Halfofthe346insurgentattacks recorde d inAfricainthefirstthree months of 2022 tookplace in West Africa. A homegrown re sponse is re quired : Franc e call ed timeon OperationBarkhane, itseight-year anti-jihadi operation in theSahel, inNovember 2022, and the UKand Germany havefollowe d suit with announcements about withdrawals

This leaves a security vacuumthatis beingfilled by theRussians. Northern Burkina Fasoand WesternNigerare mostatthreat from well-entrenched jihadist organisationsthatmixentrepreneurialactivities suchas gold mining and hostagetaking with their attacks onoutpostsofthestate.

WagnerGroupsplitsG5

Thebattle forinfluenceintheSahel spills overonline.Socialmediaaccountslinked to FranceandRussia have beentryingtocontrolthenarrative;Moscow’shasbeen by farthe moreeffective.

Thepartnership between Maliand Russian mercenary outfitthe Wagner Grouphas throwna spannerinthe works of locally sponsored attempts tostemthe insecurity. Theseinclude theG5Sahel, a grouporiginallycomprisingBurkina Faso, Chad,Mali,

MauritaniaandNiger. Malihasasked to leave the group TheG5Saheljoint force led dozensofanti-terrormissions involvingthousandsofsoldiers.

Coastalstates like Ghana, Benin, Togo and Côted’Ivoire launche d the Accra Initiativeforumin2017 todiscuss ways ofpreventing terror groups fromtheSahelfromdrifting downintotheir countries.A Rapid Response Force is planned Benin has seen20incursionssince2021. Côte

d’Ivoire has hired the conservation organisationAfrican Parks topolice thenorthernterritories.

Without a serious attempttotackle the rootcauses–a multi-decade, climatechange-drivendrought removing alltheusual sources oflivelihood for youngpeople, a series ofbotched interventions, and a failure of governance atall levels – theSahelcrisisislikely tobeonemanaged atarm’s length by theinternationalcommunity.

more civilians died in the Western Sahel conflict in the first half of 2022 than in the whole of 2021.

400A key watchpoint for 2023:towhat extentwillRussia feelthesameheatas Francefrommilitantgroupshostile to invading forces in Mali? TheAl-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM)announced that it hadkilled fourRussianmercenaries inanambusharoundBandiagara in centralMali justasMacron was pulling hissoldiersout

Sahel

Great green drea ms

TheSahel isoftencastas a timebomb – of vast demographic growth,poverty, insecurity, andclimatechange. Why notflipthisonitshead? Israelturne d theNegev de sertintoanorange orchard.Giventhesolarpotentialofthe Sahel andthehuge aquiferswhichlie underneath,installingsolar parks linked to waterpumpscould make the region bloom,providingjobsand food-securityintheprocess.A mirage, perhaps? Possibly– butitisnot stoppin g theadvocat es be hindtheGrea t Gree n Wa ll, a multi -c ountr y campaignto rehabilitate over 385,000square miles of degraded landacross theSaheland helpceasetheprogress ofthe Saharade sertsouthwards.

VINCENT BADO/REUTERS

BurkinaFasosoldiershonour comradeskilledbymilitants

Nigeria

Year of Asake

Call2022‘the yearof Asake’,andanykeenloverofAfrobeats –especiallythoseMadeInNigeria–willnodinagreement.

By February,AhmedOlolade, betterknownas Asake, had beltedout hisfour-trackself-titled Ololade EPalbum, aworthy successortohisluxuriantsingle,‘Omo Ope’.

Asake(sidebar:thisnamepays homage tohismother –in Yoruba,mothersarenamedfortheirchildren,but with Asake, the reverseisthecase) workswithin afamiliartraditionofthe streethopsubgenre, whereearthyfujimusicisfinessedintothe hip-hopmedium–with volcanicpopularitywhenitsucceeds.

OnceAfrobeats establisheditship-hopethosinthe early noughties, fuji,whichhasheldthe zeitgeistin achokehold sincethemid-1980s,becameitsscaffolding. Emergingfrom Islam-influencedmusiclikethe oldergenres sakaraandapala, fujimirrors thelifeofworking-class Nigeria.

Fujigives language tothatreality,popularisingnewslang. Asakearrivedwithhistakeonfuji by subvertingthecall-andresponse format into achoralorchestraofsorts, andhedging hisbetson Koranicchants.‘Sungba’, thestartrackonthe Ololade EP,roughlymeans‘liesupine’inYoruba,butitsusein thatamapiano-poweredtrackoffers anewerrisquémeaning Burna Boysupportedthe remixwithaninspiredverseand Afromoonwalk,whichhepremiered internationallyathis MadisonSquare GardenconcertinApril2022

Inthesevenmonthsbetweenthe releaseof‘MrMoney’ with the Vibes LPand Ololade EP,Asakehashada hotsonginany givenmonth.Callhimindefatigable, butthisisthe least of his powers,aseverysonghasbeenuniqueandunmistakablyhis, includingtheincantatory‘Palazzo’ withDJSpinall,whichis exemptfromtheLPalbum. Expect moreofthesamein2023!

GOOD

REMENE/LE PICTORIUM FOR JA; OL YMPIA DE MAISMONT/AFP

EAST AFRICA’S GROU NDHOG DAY

YANNGWET

Cameroon-bornjournalistbasedinKigali,authorof Vousavezditretour? (EditionsPrésenceAfricaine,2022), exploringexperiencesofreturningtothecontinent

4July1994.Rwandan PatrioticFront(RPF) militaryforces, ledbyPaul Kagame,seize Rwanda’s capitalKigali.The Rwandanarmy, whichhadjustcommittedgenocide against the Tutsi,was defeated. Apanicked Rwandan population,includingtheHutu Interahamwe militia, wentinto exile. Allthese lovelypeople settled inhugeUNcampsinGoma,DRC Fed,housedandwhitewashedbytheinternationalcommunity,the genocidaires continuedtosow deathupon Rwandafrom Goma. Tiredofglobalindifference,theRPF armycrossedtheborderin1996 toeradicate these forces,who were later reunitedunderthe Forces DémocratiquesdeLibérationdu Rwanda (FDLR)banner, startingthefirst Congowar Itsspectrecontinuestohaunt relationsbetweentheDRCand Rwanda morethan 25 yearslater.Reports frominternationalorganisations pointtoanalliancebetweenthe Congolesearmy(Forces Armées dela RépublicDémocratique duCongo;FARDC)andthe FDLRaspartofthe FARDC’s operationsagainsttheM23rebels (themselves accused of receiving support fromKigali).

Kagame’s provocative30November remarksuggestingDRCPresident Tshisekedi

wasinstrumentalisingthe Rwandanissuein theupcomingpresidentialcampaign was highlightedbythemedia,whomissedthe rest ofhisspeech(“PeaceinEastern Congomeans peace forus”,etc.)and Kagame’sallusionto theongoing existentialthreattheFDLRposes.

Butthemessage wasclear:ifheneeded to (ashedid26years ago), Kagame woulduse wartoimposepeace.Thepointofno return seemedstrangelyclose.

Wa sitc ro sse dafew da ys later by Tshisekedi,whotoldcivilsociety leaders“it isthe Rwandan regime,headedbyKagame, thatistheenemyofCongo”,addingthat Rwandans were notenemies,but“brothers whoneed oursolidaritytoridusandAfrica ofthiskindofbackwardleadership”?

The1996 warled to the overthrow of Zaire (nowDRC)’sMobutuSeseSekoandtheinstallationofJoseph-DésiréKabila, aRwandanally inthe waragainstthe genocidaires andtheir institutionalallies.Butthehoneymoonwith Kabila wasshort-lived.Hewantedtoshakeoff the Rwandans’cumbersometutelage, which Rwanda wouldnotaccept.Lackingthemilitary capacitytoimposehiswill, Kabilasetup avast militarycoalitionwithAngola,Zimbabwe and armedmilitias,includingtheinfamousFDLR TheSecondCongoWar beganin1998and involved at leastnineAfricancountries and dozensofarmedgroups,allengaged inthe wholesaleplunderingofCongo’sresources.

The earlyclose relationshipbetweenpresidents TshisekediandKagame saw multiple goodwill gestures andcooperationagreements. Again,thehoneymoon wasshort-lived.Again, the breakwith Rwanda onthe Congoleseside seemstohave takenthe formof an alliance withthe remainsoftheFDLR.Acoalition again hasbootson Congolesesoil.Thistime it’s anEast African Communityinitiativeto “imposepeace”–toquoteKenyanpresident Ruto, whosecountryisthelargestcontributor ofmentothe regionalforce.Kenya hasbecome amajor economicplayerintheDRC. Ishistory repeatingitself?