Tar74 by The Africa Report

TANZANIA Edward Lowassa will take John Magufuli to the wire in closest elections ever

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ETHIOPIA Al Amoudi burnt in Morocco

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Breaking the cycle Imagine an Africa where the giants pull in the same direction

(3061& +&6/& "'3*26& INTERNATIONAL EDITION

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TANZANIA Edward Lowassa will take John Magufuli to the wire in closest elections ever

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CONTENTS

ETHIOPIA Al Amoudi burnt in Morocco

N ° 74 • OC TO BE R 2 015

Breaking the cycle Imagine an Africa where the giants pull in the same direction

THE AFRICA REPORT # 74 - OCTOBER 2015 GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 7 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 50 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 35 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 8 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 FCFA

BUSINESS

4 EDITORIAL When the streets shout

60 SOUTH AFRICA Low-cost learning Private companies are using a host of innovative teaching techniques to woo pupils from the troubled state sector

6 LETTERS 8 THE QUESTION

BRIEFING 10 SIGNPOSTS 14 INTERNATIONAL

PHOTOMONTAGE TAR; MATTHIEU SPOHN/CORBIS; DIMITRI VERVITSIOTIS/GETTY IMAGES; CGIBACKGROUNDS.COM/GETTY IMAGES; LNP/REX SHUTTERSTOCK/SIPA; GALLO/REX SHUTTERSTOCK/SIPA

16 PEOPLE 18 OPINION Kalundi Serumaga 20 CALENDAR

FRONTLINE 22 NIGERIA/SOUTH AFRICA Breaking the cycle The continent’s two largest economies have the opportunity to shape Africa’s destiny – if they can work together

22 30

70 HANNIBAL

76 COCOA Côte d’Ivoire’s grind hits a bump

38 OPINION John Githongo

78 MOROCCO Yes, we can

40 FRANCOPHONE FEVER Elections round-up: Burkina Faso, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire and Central African Republic 42 ALGERIA Toufik tamed 44 ZAMBIA Lungu’s labours

ART & LIFE 80 ETIQUETTE The icing on the cake A new generation of Nigerian parents hope exclusive finishing schools in Lagos may provide their children with an edge in the competitive corporate world

44 TUNISIA Pay-back time

84 IN BRIEF The lost work of IvorianGhanian photographer Paul Kodjo

45 ANANSI

COUNTRY FOCUS 47 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO The Kabila legacy Before any third-term talk, how well do the first two rate? We analyse the president’s performance; promises kept and those that fell by the wayside N ° 74

70 FINANCE Zim’s debt market to relaunch

72 AGRICULTURE Senegal gets growing Politically stable and fertile, the country is now rivalling traditional African exporters to provide produce to European markets

30 TANZANIA The change game The ruling party is being pushed all the way by the opposition

•

68 LEADERS Afreximbank’s president Benedict Oramah

DOSSIER

POLITICS

THE AFRICA REPORT

64 MOROCCO Ethiopia’s Al Amoudi burns his fingers with SAMIR

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86 LIFESTYLE Behind the Scenes with Danielle Eog Makedah; Cameroon’s mobile cinema 88 TRAVEL Port Louis, Mauritius 90 DAY IN THE LIFE Talla Niang, cultural catalyst

EDITORIAL

THE AFRICA REPORT A Groupe Jeune Afrique publication

BY PATRICK SMITH

57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 www.theafricareport.com

When the streets shout

or the second time in a year, the people of Burkina Faso have taken to the streets to defend democracy and to face down its usurpers. A year ago, they chased long-time leader Blaise Compaoré from the presidency after he tried to inveigle another term. It was the mass mobilisation on the streets of Ouagadougou and other towns that led the confrontation. The military, nursing long-held grudges against Compaoré, whose 1987 coup resulted in the murder of nationalist hero Thomas Sankara, sided with the people. Faced with that alliance, Compaoré’s presidential guard told their chief to run for his life while they tried to cut a deal. The resulting deal, a transitional government under Michel Kafando to organise free elections, was never to the taste of the presidential guard. And as elections approached in October and the moneybag friends of Compaoré had been barred from contesting, the presidential guard moved again. They arrested Kafando and announced that General Gilbert Diendéré, Compaoré’s spymaster, would run the transition. Again, the elite soldiers underestimated the people. Again, the people took to the streets and won the backing of the regular army. Four days after his September coup, Diendéré was apologising on state television. We are still far from the endgame in Burkina, but les événements are resonating across Africa. The Burkinabè protests send a message to other leaders – in the Republic of Congo, the DRC and Rwanda – who are planning a third term. But this wave of protest movements, which has sprung up in Kenya, South Africa, Tunisia,

CHA I R M A N A ND F O UND E R BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED P UB L I S HE R DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com E X E CUT I VE P UB L I S HE R JÉRÔME MILLAN

Tanzania, Ghana and many more countries, is about far more than election rules or term limits. It is a much wider blast at the dominant political and economic system that is failing to deliver. So, when the protestors rail against presidential perfidies or lousy public services, they quickly move onto a broader agenda: unemployment, insecurity, soaring food and housing costs, and poor schools and clinics. A quarter of a century ago, when their parents took to the streets, the cry was for the end of single-party dictatorships and their replacement by multiparty democracies. But in many cases these governments have not lived up to the billing. Malawi’s eminent political scientist Thandika As growth Mkandawire calls them “choiceless democrafalters and cies”. Indeed, their economic political and economic conditions structures remain resolutely undemocratised. worsen At the head of these a political new protest movements are many of reckoning those suffering under has started the brunt of the headlong growth of Africa’s new cities, which is happening without economic modernisation or industrialisation. The marketbased economic reforms introduced under choiceless democracies won backing from a globalised and professionalised African elite who were meant to wrest power from the state and its praetorian guards. The economic reforms and supersonic commodity demand from Asia fuelled the growth boom of the past decade. But as that growth falters and social conditions worsen, a political reckoning has started in Africa’s cities. ●

editorial@theafricareport.com THE AFRICA REPORT

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M A R K E T I NG & D E VE L O P M E NT ALISON KINGSLEY-HALL E D I T O R I N CHI E F PATRICK SMITH M A NA G I NG E D I T O R NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com A S S I S TA NT E D I T O R CHARLIE HAMILTON A S S O CI AT E E D I T O R MARSHALL VAN VALEN E D I T O R I A L A S S I S TA NT OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI R E G I O NA L E D I T O R S PARSELELO KANTAI (EAST AFRICA) CRYSTAL ORDERSON (SOUTHERN AFRICA) TOLU OGUNLESI (NIGERIA) BILLIE ADWOA MCTERNAN (GHANA) S UB - E D I T O R S ALISON CULLIFORD ERIN CONROY P R O O F R E A D I NG KATHLEEN GRAY A RT D I R E CT O R MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER) CAMILLE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) P R O D UCT I O N PHILIPPE MARTIN CHRISTIAN KASONGO R E S E A R CH SYLVIE FOURNIER P HO T O G R A P HY PIERANGÉLIQUE SCHOULER O NL I NE PRINCE OFORI-ATTA SALES SANDRA DROUET Tel: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – Fax: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 sales@theafricareport.com CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 8 The Old Silk Mill Brook Street, Tring Hertfordshire HP23 5EF United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 - $60 - £35 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com D I F CO M INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS - FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19-60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com A D VE RT I S I NG D I R E CT O R NATHALIE GUILLERY WITH JEANNY CHABON R E G I O NA L M A NA G E R S ÉLODIE BOUSSONNIERE IBIJOKE FABORODE PASCALE LALLEMAND PRINTER: SIEP 77 - FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0715 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950-4810 THE AFRICA REPORT is published by GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

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LETTERS For all your comments, suggestions and queries, please write to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis Rue d’Auteuil - Paris 75016 - France. or editorial@theafricareport.com

HOMOPHOBIA IS NOT AFRICAN

MALI Saudi cash bashes Sufis

GREEN POWER The Third Industrial Revolution

KENYA Shared growth remains elusive

ON SALE AUGUST & SEPTEMBER

frican sexuality is part of human sexuality and homosexuality has been recognised by the scientific community as being a small THE part of natural human sexuality [‘The Question’, TAR73 Aug/Sept 2015]. To suggest homosexuality is not ‘African’ is to suggest that Africans are not fully human. And that, you would agree, is complete nonsense! Ancestral Africans did not hate those members of their communities who experienced same-sex attraction. Traditional African societies were perfectly familiar with homosexuality and although the attitude towards it varied from society to society, there is not a single traditional African society that has a history of rabid homophobia of the kind that we are witnessing on the continent today! Homophobia, and intolerance generally, arrived in Africa with foreign religions and colonialism. It is intolerance and homophobia that are un-African and foreign in origin. Anengiyefa Alagoa via Facebook w w w.t h e a fr ica r e p o r t .c om

N ° 7 3 • A U G U S T- S E P T E M B E R 2 015

Koki Mutungi • Thuli Madonsela • Gervais

• Mensa Otabil Attahiru Jega

Didier Drogba Koffi Djondo • Unity Dow

Magic System • Jerry Brown • Jacque Kahura

Moursli Oumou Sall Seck • Juliana Rotich • Nic Rudnick • Cherkaoui El

Sangudi e • Geneviève a • Aliko Dangot

Mmusi Maimane • Souad

TRAILBLAZERS

Monica Musond

Massi

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

NOT PARALLEL BUT PERPENDICULAR WORLDS Afrofuturism often tends towards hegemonic communication – speaking for a presumed common experience across the Afrodiaspora, especially the first-world anglophone north. The article ‘Afrofuturism: Seeing parallel worlds’ [TAR72 Jul 2015] attempts to disrupt that discourse, as well as diasporic projections of motherland Africa as a blank slate of technological lack. However, emphasising African “parallel world”-making rings odd to these ears, just as the irony of a white critic coining the very term Afrofuturism seems interesting.

Perhaps we will consider Afrofuturist aesthetics not “parallel” but “perpendicular” to systemic violences reverberating from the colonial past. Perhaps Akoi-Jackson’s “othering the system” requires not only imagining but enacting alternative technologies within everyday postcolonial struggle. What material interventions are deemed necessary to transform neo-African sociopolitical infrastructures? As much as this presumes a technocultural embrace, we might also leave room for black resistance to technology, which has been considerable. Didier M. Sylvain PhD candidate in Ethnomusicology, Columbia University, USA, via email

AN ELECTRIC AVENUE The low quality of electricity supply in Senegal and West Africa in general is a continuing nightmare [‘Dakar out of the dark’, TAR71 June 2015]. The measures taken by decision makers so far are inadequate. It is crazy to know that the public authorities of Senegal are counting on imported coal to secure their self-generation of electricity. Low management and financial performances have resulted in a lack of international credibility for several national electricity companies so that attracting the investment required seems beyond their capabilities. Only an ambitious strategy of mutualising the resources on a regional basis will provide a sustainable option for securing the electricity supply in West Africa. That would include setting-up crossborder authorities for the investment and management of the electricity and natural gas infrastructures with the vision to develop a regional electricity wholesale market. Edgard Gnansounou Professor and Director, Bioenergy and Energy Planning research Group (BPE), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (Switzerland), via email

Correction: In TAR’s Finance edition (Oct-Dec 2015) the article ‘South Africa: Weak growth, smaller appetites’ should have been attributed to Gillian Parker.

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Pioneering collaboration Partnering with our farmers, cooperatives and communities to help secure livelihoods for future generations across the globe.

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Smallholder farmer harvesting cashew, Côte d’Ivoire

THE QUESTION To respond to this month’s Question, visit www.theafricareport.com. You can also find The Africa Report on Facebook and on Twitter @theafricareport. Comments, suggestions and queries can also be sent to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis Rue d’Auteuil, Paris 75016, France or editorial@theafricareport.com

Kenya is building a multi-billion-dollar techno city to provide jobs for 200,000 people. Can the world’s youngest continent overtake the Californian cluster that began when our democracies were still in diapers?

Is an African Silicon Valley a pipe dream today?

Yes ETHEL COFIE CEO, EDEL Technology Consulting, founder of Women in Tech Africa

The desire to nurture and establish an entrepreneurial ecosystem like Silicon Valley is not necessarily a bad idea, but in the attempt to ‘copy and paste’ a Silicon Valley we ignore what our inherent advantages are in Africa. We need to have the knowledge and understanding of the ‘best practice’, but we have to build a ‘best fit’ ecosystem. Silicon Valley has been 50 years in the making. It’s the product of Sputnikinduced competition, a 1960s-induced cultural renaissance and an open-minded, risk-taking approach where failure is accepted. The advantage of Silicon Valley is the concentration of talent innovators, startups, funders and established technology companies. Africa, on the other hand, has a large pool of entrepreneurs hence the need to capitalise on an existing base and teach growth from survivalist to scalable technology entrepreneurship. We do not have a large pool of venture capital or angel networks, but in lots of African countries we have crowdfunding in its purest forms. A million people investing one dollar into a company gives the company a million dollars in funding. We cannot be a ‘cut and paste’ Silicon Valley but we can create entrepreneurial ecosystems that enable a critical mass of entrepreneurs and affect our economies in positive ways. ●

No JEANCLAUDE BASTOS DE MORAIS Founder, African Innovation Foundation

The African Silicon Valley is a reality. The key is to not compare it to its Californian counterpart because the African startup scene is evolving against a very different set of dynamics. These dynamics, driven largely by a bulging youth population, have leapfrogged many African economies into the tech era. From Nigeria to Kenya, Egypt to South Africa, we are seeing the emergence of technology-based economies. The African Development Bank projects the ICT market in Africa to be worth $150 billion by 2016, creating demand for highly-skilled professionals. Kenya in particular is poised to drive these developments and set the bar for an African Silicon Valley, or ‘Silicon Savannah’ as they’re calling it. As a mobile technology economy, it is fast becoming the continent’s tech hub. Already global heavyweights like Google, Intel and IBM have set up shop here. Sooner or later, by synthesis, these developments will be seen elsewhere in Africa. Infrastructuresharing initiatives are reducing the costs of internet access and mobile telephony. International bandwidth and data networks have become more widely available. Unlike the West, where populations are ageing, Africans are less averse to adopting new technological trends, changing the way they bank, trade, farm, learn and consume services. So while there may not be a structure likened to California’s Silicon Valley here in Africa, a hybrid version is well under way. ●

YOUR VIEWS:

Africa should stop seeing technology as a Western thing and should start Africanising it by teaching and developing the mindset that technology is African. Africa should take the technical segment of its diaspora more seriously and seek for creative ways to involve them in the development of our technology. Maikel Ibia As LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman says: “Silicon Valley is no longer a place but rather a state of mind.” Trying to replicate the same model as the coveted valley ultimately will be our own undoing. We need to create enabling environments where talent is rewarded and access to capital is less painful. And also consumer awareness of locally developed products. We should think global, build local, and target social. Mwesigwa Daniel Africa is being looked at by lots of investors for rapid growth in the future. NEST is now in Nairobi. With time and effort, we can expect Africa rising up as the next big startup region. Belinda Wong With investment from China especially, Africa has the potential to create such a thriving tech ecosystem. However, today, with no apparent strategic plan, it seems more like an idealistic goal for the future. Jonathan Nwauzu

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Africans Building KappaCity

Ka Petrol Ka Power

Indigenous Oil & Gas Companies Production Exploration Associated Services & Industries

Hydro Power Generation Gas Fired Power Generation Associated Services & Industries

Kapp Oil & Gas Pipelines Water Network Power Transmission & Telecom Lines

www.kappafrik.com

Ibrahim Leadership Fellowships Programme Established in 2010, the Ibrahim Leadership Fellowships form a selective programme designed to identify and support potential African leaders of the future.

Invitation for Applications The Fellowships offer the opportunity to work in the executive offices of either the African Development Bank (Abidjan), the UN Economic Commission for Africa (Addis Ababa) or the International Trade Centre (Geneva) with an annual stipend of $100,000. The three organisations will each host an Ibrahim Leadership Fellow for a 12-month period supporting senior management. The Fellowships are open to young professionals, mid-career and new executives up to the age of 40 or 45 for women with children. The Fellows will be nationals of an African country with 7-10 years of relevant work experience and a Masterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Degree.

Closing date for applications is Monday 9 November 2015 For more information about the Fellowship programme, eligibility and application process please visit: www.moibrahimfoundation.org/fellowships

BRIEFING

SIGNPOSTS

CONGO Bystanders watch as a pack of competing cyclists whizzes through the streets of Brazzaville during the 11th African Games.

72% South Africa

Yes

Ramaphosa kisses a replica of a skull of Homo naledi, the extinct homanid discovered in Gauteng Province.

KENYA A monument to Mau Mau fighters

was unveiled in Nairobi on 12 September in recognition of their ill treatment by colonial Britain.

Splits in the khaki: Burundi and Burkina Faso

In conjunction with GeoPoll, The Africa Report asked 100 South Africans and 100 Kenyans the question: Have you witnessed or been a victim of sexual harassment in the past month?

SOUTH AFRICA Deputy President Cyril

CONFLICT

Chose not to reply 21%

17%

3% 80% Kenya

GeoPoll is the world’s largest mobile surveying platform and sample provider in emerging markets, enabling companies and organisations to gather quick, accurate and indepth insights. To learn more or to sign up to receive surveys visit Research.GeoPoll.com

NIGERIA INTERNET GOES MOBILE Predicted growth in revenues from internet access ($bn)

eneral Gilbert Diendéré, who led a coup on 17 September, claims not to have spoken to his former boss Blaise Compaoré, but fooled no one. Burkina Faso’s former President Compaoré was kicked out in October 2014 by the street after attempts to ram through legislation to extend his stay. The split in the army – between Diendéré’s presidential guard and the regular army – meant that ultimately the anti-Compaoré coup was successful, while the September counter-coup of his supporters failed. Likewise, a more steadfast response from the Economic Community of West African States helped face down the attempt to get Compaoré’s boys back on seat.

Burundi has no such clear-cut neighbourly direction nor are the military divisions clear. The 1993-2005 civil war and endless rounds of on/off negotiations with rebels, some of whom were brought into the regular military, mean that the soldiering class is fractured. While some supported the attempt by General Godefroid Niyombare to dislodge President Pierre Nkurunziza when he manufactured a third term in office this year, others did not. A new wave of kidnappings and the attempted assassination of the chief of army staff in September suggests that more unrest is on the way. If the East African Community were to speak with one voice, the worst might be avoided. ●

6.0

5.0

4.0

Mobile internet access Fixed broadband access

3.0

2.0

2010’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19

STR/AP/SIPA

1.0

SOURCE: PWC/OVUM

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BRIEFING

UNITED KINGDOM South Africa

suffered a shock defeat against Japan in the Rugby World Cup on 19 September.

ITALY Guitarist Bombino, a.k.a. Goumar

UGANDA Police fired coloured tear gas at

Almoctar from Niger, perfoms at the Ritmika Music Festival in Moncalieri, outside Turin.

campaigners supporting Amama Mbabazi to unseat President Yoweri Museveni in the 2016 election.

MONIRUL BHUIYAN/AFP; THEMBA HADEBE/AP/SIPA; DANIEL IRUNGU/EPA/CORBIS; STEVE BARDENS/GETTY IMAGES; ANDREA GATTINO/GETTY IMAGES; JAMES AKENA / REUTERS

“Zimbabwe ain’t China!”

DEMOCRACY RATING ELECTION QUALITY 80 to 100%

60 to 80%

40 to 60% Tunisia

Burkina Faso Jonathan Moyo, Zimbabwe’s higher education minister, commenting on rumours that a change in leadership will lead to more openness in the country.

Uganda

Nigeria

Sierra Leone Liberia

Benin

Côte d’Ivoire

Kenya

Burundi

Togo

Ghana

Tanzania

Cameroon

Percentage of people who rated the last election held in their country as “completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems”.

Mauritius Malawi

Zambia

Proportion of total exports to China Central African Republic Zimbabwe Liberia Gambia South Africa Democratic Republic of Congo Zambia Mauritania Angola Republic of Congo

Zimbabwe

Namibia Botswana

Swaziland Lesotho Madagascar

$10bn

African countries most exposed to the China slowdown

EGYPT GAS BOOM

MINING GLENCORE FIGHTBACK

MOZAMBIQUE FREE AT LAST

As tumbling commodity prices continued to hit mining firms, Switzerland-based group Glencore announced in early September that it would halt copper production at its Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia facilities. It also plans $10bn of debt-reduction measures.

After more than two decades of work, Mozambique is now thought to be clear of landmines. Some 171,000 devices planted during the country’s brutal civil war have been cleared, according to the international mine clearance charity The Halo Trust.

THE AFRICA REPORT

CHINA/AFRICA FEELING THE PINCH

SOURCE: AFROBAROMETER

Guinea

Niger

Mali

SOURCE: IMF

Cape Verde

GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP

Senegal

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Italian oil and gas giant Eni announced it had discovered one of the world’s largest natural gas fields off the coast of Egypt in late August. The field covers an area of 100 square kilometres and holds 30 trillion cubic feet of gas – 333,333 times the volume of Egypt’s Great Pyramid of Giza.

55%

RÉPUBLIQUE DE GUINÉE

BUILDING TOMORROW’S

GUINEA TOGETHER

! President Alpha Condé, when touring the country, emphasises the need for ongoing social dialogue.

O ADVERTORIAL

ver the past five years, Guinea has established an electoral system on a par with those in developed countries. The next step is strengthening the democratic process while driving crucial economic and social reforms.

The 2010 presidential election in Guinea is symbolic in more ways than one. Over half a century after independence was proclaimed on 2 October 1958, the country finally organised its first free, fair and multiparty election. After twenty-six years as a single-party state (1958-1984), followed by twenty-four years under quasi-military rule, which included an attempt at introducing a multiparty system in April 1992, which in fact served mainly to reassert military authority. The years of military transition (2008-2010) led to the presidential election, for which the second round was held on 7 November 2010. Twenty-four candidates ran in this first free political competition. In the first round of this year’s presidential election, held on 11 October 2015,

there were eight candidates, seven men and a woman from the private sector. Under the leadership of President Alpha Condé, the past five years have enabled Guinea to turn the page on more than 50 years of authoritarian regimes and establish a new social contract between rulers and ruled. Most of the democratic achievements of 2010 have been maintained and political rivalry has become purely civilian. The army has reverted to its role as defender of the nation and keeper of the peace. Through its reform and modernisation, it was reconciled with the nation. The president is committed to maintaining dialogue with the main parties and political debate has centred on the need to avert the risk of violence that could disrupt the electoral process. All members of civil society are working in unison on the idea of coexistence and the artistic community is producing messages, videos and films that communicate this progress.

State institutions are in place

Meaningful economic progress

Guinea’s elections are now organised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) which is made up equally of government and opposition representation. It has ensured the presence of national and international observers at polling stations, as was the case during the September 2013 parliamentary elections, which were preceded by the signing of a political agreement that helped ease tensions.

The past five years have also brought significant progress on the economic front. Reforms in fiscal and monetary management enabled it to access the Extended Credit Facility (FEC) programme, approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2012. The agreement was extended for the fifth time in 2015, with a favourable report from the institution. In terms of business climate, the end of over-thecounter markets, the creation of the Private Investment Promotion Agency (APIP) and its single window, the adoption of a new public procurement law and the stabilisation of public service finances are all positive signs of progress. The economic agenda now includes reducing inequality between urban and rural areas, advancing road and social infrastructure projects, and rehabilitating security and other buildings.

Further signs of significant progress are the establishment of a National Assembly, along with major reforms, such as the agreement on political dialogue in August 2015 and a new law on the status of the official opposition. The National Assembly voted 77 in favour and five against, with three abstentions, on giving the leader of the opposition more representation. He now has a cabinet, close security, an office, official car and operating budget, the amount of which is determined by the Office of the National Assembly. The leader of the opposition now has his place in the order of state protocol.

The Head of State recently travelled into the hinterland to take stock of the overriding socio-economic needs. During this tour of the country’s different regions and sub-regions, he again reiterated the importance of maintaining social dialogue as a means for the Guinean political class to establish focal points of agreement on the essential: the development of Guinea and improved living conditions for its people. Infrastructure rehabilitation, support to agriculture, improving electricity supply, increasing water supply points, and strengthening the health and education systems are all necessities. If political competition is the basis for the exercise of democracy, building the country is a priority. ■

The five past years also brought significant progress on the economic front.

! Guinea’s socio-economic development is imperative to the improvement of people’s living conditions.

Since then, the gradual establishment of institutions provided for in the Constitution, such as the Ombudsman, the High Authority for Audiovisual and Communication, the Constitutional Court, the Economic and Social Council and the Court of Auditors, puts the forthcoming elections – presidential in late 2015, and local in early 2016 – into a perspective that allows voters more serenity.

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INTERNATIONAL 1

5 8

2 6

INDIA

2.3m

In mid-September, jobseekers brought the employment bureau of the regional government in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh to a standstill, swamping it with 2.3m applications for 368 low-grade clerical jobs.

GUATEMALA

Corruption crisis

BEN CAWTHRA/REX SHUTTER/SIPA

Guatemala’s President Otto Perez Molina dramatically resigned from his post on 3 September only hours before being arrested and taken to court charged with corruption, engulfing the country in its most serious political crisis in decades. His arrest came after Congress removed his immunity from prosecution at the end of a series of allegations that he had engineered a scam to defraud the customs service out of millions of dollars, a charge he denies. This was the first time a Central American country has so powerfully backed the judiciary against a head of state. ●

EUROPE

Anti-austerity wins votes

Europe moved left in September with the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of Britain’s opposition Labour Party, and Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras triumphing in Greece’s snap general election. Corbyn’s elevation from outsider to leader stunned Labour MPs. Boosters hope the injection of democracy into the election process – more than 420,000 party members and supporters took part – and Corbyn’s attempt to talk policy rather than personality will vivify the left in the UK, dulled by years of Blair-lite managerialism. Opponents predict that his talk of nationalising railways and greater state spending will turn voters off, leaving the nation without a proper opposition party to hold the ruling Conservative party to account. Meanwhile, the return of Tsipras as prime minister after Syriza achieved a majority in late September was interpreted by analysts as a sign of further battles to come as Greece struggles to comply with the terms of the austerity deal underscoring its bailout from the troika of international lenders. That Tsipras has lost the most extreme left wing of his party will help keep the reform plan on track, but by no means guarantees its success. ●

JAPAN

support the government of Syria […] in countering the terrorist aggression.”

Pacifist no more

In September, fistfights broke out inside Japan’s upper parliamentary chamber, the House of Representatives, as opposition members of parliament tried to halt a vote on a controversial bill that would allow troops to fight abroad, ending decades of pacifism following the end of World War II. Despite little public support for the change of strategy, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was elected on a reformist platform in December 2012, pushed the bill through on 18 September in order to counter an increasingly assertive China and ensure regional stability. ●

RUSSIA

“We

SERGEI GUNEYEV/AP/SIPA

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin explains why the Kremlin has ratcheted up its military presence in the Middle Eastern country in support of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

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AFRICAN ANGLES 6

TURKEY

Kurdish conflict Turkey’s simmering dispute with the Kurdish group Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (PKK) exploded into fresh violence in September after the breakdown of peace talks at the end of July. Government warplanes bombarded Kurdish strongholds on the border with Syria and over the border in Iraq, leaving scores dead amid claims that the upsurge in attacks by the Turkish military is politically motivated. Turkey is due to head to the polls for parliamentary elections in November and some suspect the assaults are designed to crush pro-Kurdish political groups within Turkey. ●

NORTH & SOUTH KOREA

The ongoing sabre-rattling between North and South Korea lurched from provocation to peace and back again. No sooner had a border spat been resolved than Pyongyang announced the nuclear plant supplying its controversial weapons programme had resumed operations.

UNITED STATES

Oil ouch The Saudi Arabia-led effort to price US-based shale oil producers out of the market has kept prices below $50 a barrel and caused headaches for petroleum exporters. Signs are that Riyadh is winning. Analysts at FactSet reported that companies in the US shale industry spent $32bn more than they took in during the first six months of the year. Despite brave talk by industry chiefs the bond market reflected investor doubts. The International Energy Agency is already forecasting a 9% slip in US production in 2016. ● THE AFRICA REPORT

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ROSHAN DADOO

Acting executive director, Consortium for Refugees and Migrants in South Africa

The limits of empathy Europe’s influx of migrants shows the perils of selecting groups of ‘deserving’ and ‘undeserving’

t took the tragic photo of three-yearold Aylan Kurdi, washed up dead on a Turkish beach, for the events at Europe’s borders to break into South African headlines. Conversely, in 2008, it was the image of Ernesto Nhamuave, the ‘burning man’, that brought vivid news of xenophobic violence in South Africa to a shocked world. Local media have been asking: what do events in Europe mean for South Africa and our attitude towards refugees and migrants? Migration has been a hot topic in South Africa this year. In April, as xenophobic violence was again flaring up around the country, yet another series of tragic photos dominated our news. A journalist witnessed the stabbing to death of Emmanuel Sithole, a Mozambican migrant. Claiming that his real name was Manuel Josias, that he was in the country illegally and that his death was not due to xenophobic violence but sheer criminality, the South African government sought to locate the death of Sithole in its narrative of xenophobia denial and stigmatisation of “illegal” migrants. The picture of Aylan provoked a confused reaction from governments in Europe. Public sympathy certainly was moved – to the point that citizens were taking action themselves. In South Africa, too, ordinary people were moved to protect their non-national neighbours, donate to temporary camps for the displaced and join solidarity marches, prompting government to limited acknowledgement and action.

The media response has been to pay attention to the words they use as contributing factors towards shaping social attitudes. This is a good thing. The Al Jazeera network announced that it will now use the word refugee to describe the people arriving at the ports and stations of Europe in order to acknowledge that people are forced to move from their homes due to wars and conflicts; that they have no choice but to use people smugglers and to travel in perilous ways; and that they have the right, under international law, to protection, not least in the very countries that have supported, fuelled and exacerbated conflict from colonial times to the present. So far, so good, particularly viewed from the South. What complicates this picture is that it tends to classify people on the move into the ‘deserving’ – refugees – and the ‘undeserving’ – migrants. It allows us to limit our empathy. We feel sorry for some, but not for others. Migrants can still be demonised as illegal, criminals, job-stealers, social-service scroungers. We are not obliged to have sympathy for them. The response of the South African government to the death of Sithole is a case in point. So what do these graphic images of dead migrants mean both in South Africa and Europe? That the only ‘good’ migrant is a refugee – or a dead one? No. We still act with a shared humanity when we see images of dead children and people being murdered. In South Africa and in Europe, it is up to us to assert that no one is illegal. ●

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PEOPLE

FIXED ON FINANCE July 1999 Joined the fiscal affairs department of the IMF March 2009 Served as Ghana’s deputy finance minister April 2009 Became a nonexecutive director at the Bank of Ghana 2011 Published a book on value-added tax January 2013 Named finance minister in President John Mahama’s government

STEVE ABABIO

SPOTLIGHT

Seth Terkper, number cruncher With elections in December 2016, Ghana’s finance minister is raising new funds to fix the power crisis and bail out his cash-strapped government, which was hit by falling prices of oil and other commodities SETH TERKPER IS the technocrat’s technocrat. As he outlines the roots of Ghana’s economic woes, the finance minister looks as though he should be giving a tutorial at Harvard, his alma mater, rather than in London briefing a phalanx of bond traders nervously monitoring commodity-price cycles. Yet, for the next month, those bond traders are Terkper’s primary audience. His task is to convince them

to invest in a $1.5bn eurobond in the midst of a deluge of bad economic news at home and abroad. This year, Ghana’s economic growth has slumped to 3.5%, half the rate of three years ago, due to a combination of crashing oil prices, delays on a $700m gas processing plant, swingeing power cuts that paralysed industry and a poor cocoa harvest. Ghana’s cedi lost almost half its value against the US

dollar in the past 18 months, and the country’s debt burden is more than 70% of its gross domestic product. Bad as the backdrop is, Terkper has to sell Ghana’s bond now if the budget is to add up. However, the yield is likely to be higher than hoped. Ghana will probably pay 9-10% interest on the bond instead of the 8% it paid when it floated a $1bn bond last year. Fending off pressure from the streets hit by Ghana’s economic downturn and by the fickle financial markets, Terkper emanates a scholarly calm. “You need to understand the context,” he tells The Africa Report. “That is, the pressure on revenues, on power and on our investment programme. We launched reforms and we are implementing them satisfactorily – look at the latest International Monetary Fund [IMF] report.”

“To fight Boko Haram is to fight Daesh, and we can no longer single out terrorism according to regions.”

“Those who are part of destabilising that part of the world don’t want to accept the refugees. It is their responsibility. They caused it. They must address it.”

France’s President François Hollande pledges military support to his Nigerian counterpart Muhammadu Buhari.

South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma weighs in to tell Europe to do the right thing by the millions of Syrian refugees and other asylum-seekers. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Good times

S. AZIM/AP/SIPA

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GODWIN EMEFIELE In September, Nigeria’s central bank governor was battered by news that JP Morgan removed Nigeria from its influential Emerging Markets Bond Index. He is also fighting off calls to devalue the currency again.

ABRAHAM ATTAH Far from his previous life as a street vendor on the streets of Accra, Ghana, the 14-year-old actor scooped the Marcello Mastroianni Award at the 2015 Venice Film Festival for his role in Beasts of No Nation.

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir begrudgingly welcomes a new transitional government. •

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi forced Egypt’s agriculture minister to resign on 7 September. Helal was arrested and detained as part of an anticorruption probe that led to the formation of a new government.

The South African, who has cerebral palsy, became the first woman quadriplegic to conquer the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. She achieved the feat on 3 September in a specially adapted wheelchair.

“I call upon all of you to join hands with me, until we bring peace to our country.” THE AFRICA REPORT

SELAH EDDIN HELAL

Patrick Smith in London

CHIGOZIE OBIOMA The 28-year-old Nigerian is the only African author in this year’s Man Booker Prize shortlist. He is the youngest on the list and won his spot for his debut novel The Fishermen. The winner is announced on 13 October.

There is a hint of irritation as he goes through the numbers about how Ghana’s economic travails have been reported. “We’re getting back on a growth path. It’s not just our figures, it’s what the IMF estimate. Ghana will be growing 5.7% next year, and we’re bringing down the [budget] deficit.” A chartered accountant, a former senior economist at the IMF and the author of a book on value-added tax, Terkper is an improbable politician and at odds with some activists in the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC), who fear his policies could lose them votes. To help turn the economy around, Terkper opened negotiations with his old employer, the IMF, and the World Bank. He is imposing some harsh measures in exchange for about $1.7bn in loans and guarantees. The measures include dramatic cuts in the government’s wage bill and rises in the cost of fuel, electricity and water. For managers of the NDC’s election campaign, Terkper’s austerity policies are a nightmare. The campaigners’ solution is traditional: beg, steal or borrow enough money to ramp up spending ahead of the election. You win power and then worry about how to pay it back. But Mahama and his ministers may struggle to convince voters that the end of the current austerity is in sight. Opposition barbs about the wealth of the NDC chieftains and their business friends are hitting home amid worries about escalating corruption. The NDC does not expect to see Terkper at the centre of those political fights. He is more likely to be poring over spreadsheets and econometric tables. Indeed, another book may be in prospect: Ghana’s Economic Abyss and How to Avoid It. ●

ROBERT MUGABE The opposition ridiculed Zimbabwe’s president after he read out the wrong speech at the opening of parliament on 15 September. Critics claimed the blunder showed the 91-yearold leader is not fit to govern.

Bad times

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OPINION

Kalundi Serumaga Journalist, filmmaker and cultural activist

Black hawker down: reflections on Africa’s possible urban futures

our contenders are vying for ownership of Africa’s urban spaces: the international financial system, the operators of the informal economy, the new elite still holding on to the post-colonial dream of building shiny new metropolises, and Mother Nature. Ladies first. Mother Nature in May staked an angry claim to the low-lying areas of Kenya’s capital Nairobi in a stunning six-hour rainstorm that overwhelmed the city’s road and drainage systems. The usually congested evening commute traffic jam escalated into a disaster. Large numbers of motorists had to spend the entire night marooned in their immobilised cars. The same sort of scenario played out in Accra in early June, and in Lagos. Urbanisation is happening, but the question is who will own and shape emergent African urban spaces? Patterns of infrastructure reveal a legacy of exploitative intent. The networks were laid down in such a way as to primarily serve the extractive agenda of the imperial powers that brought them. In short, the roads and rail networks were like slashed veins bleeding treasure from the interior out to the coast by the shortest possible route for onward relaying back to Europe. The real native African urban settlements were often either subsumed into this new reality or left to atrophy and die out, in what became ‘upcountry’ spaces. Therefore, with very few exceptions, the idea of an urban space in Africa comes infused with notions of new beginnings, a thing quite separated from the past (of which the hinterland is seen as a remnant) and not really answerable to it in any tangible way. The rising urban middle class fortifies this space. After all, it is a cultural value established by, and enshrined in, the dreams of post-colonialism. A modern, buzzing city was the perfect symbol of one having earned one’s place in the modern world. Square pegs in round holes, our cities thus speak of our elite aspirations of arrival rather than as melting pots of genuine human interaction. As such, much of the work of city administration is a

civilising mission to discipline the unruly natives into fitting into the idea. It rarely ever works the other way around. Whatever the future of the city of Kampala, its current managers seem to feel that the presence of the urban poor, owners and operators of a vast informal economy, should not be part of it. This makes one thing clear: the actors in the informal economy are the one category of claimant who find themselves in retreat. The figurative descendants of those poor are the participants of the large informal economies – the anonymous millions of the sprawling megalopolises we see today. Notably, they have become a distribution network of sorts for the massive influx of cheap manufactured goods flooding in from the factories of South Asia and the tonnes of freshly harvested upcountry produce brought daily into the city.

For the informal economy the spectre of a new economic apartheid looms large The modernist thinking holds a very determined vision to create cities that, in terms of infrastructure, architecture and amenities, would rival the post-colonial wonders of the Far East. The critical gap in this plan is, frankly, the absence of large, more ruthlessly exploited natural resources and economies. The irony here is that the national state, acting on behalf of the local business elite, may have putative control but in real terms possesses neither the discipline nor the wherewithal to support such long-term capital investment. This is indeed where another of the abovementioned potential claimants to African urban space comes in. Chinese largesse aside, there is a growing appetite among the technocracies managing our cities to finance their new ambitions for large infrastructure projects by floating municipal bonds on the international markets. South Africa’s Cape Town, Rwanda’s Kigali, as well as the venerable Addis Ababa, have already done so, with the latter even being heavily overTHE AFRICA REPORT

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subscribed. Kampala now seeks to get in on the act. The city’s technocrats recently made an application to have the national government allow them to issue bonds worth $500m on the global market. Clearly, there will be a process to every option, and with every option an attendant risk. For those seeking the modern ‘shining city on a hill’, the price for this will be paid in democracy and demographics. In Kampala, it led to the locking out of hugely popular mayor Erias Lukwago, who probably drew the largest-ever majority in the last election. Alarmed by his popular mandate, the national government tried to replace him with a selected city commissioner who it could more readily control. For the global financial markets, this view of Africa’s urban spaces as viable loan destinations through the municipal bonds market may well presage the kind of scenarios that led to the debt crisis of the early 1980s. Is anybody asking what conditions were given for municipal loan repayments? How were the loans structured, and who will bear the cost of repayment? A worst-case scenario may see beleaguered city governments employing brutal means to ensure uninterrupted taxable production, such as the 2012 bloody suppression of the miners strike at Marikana. For the owners of the informal economy and its markets, the spectre of a new economic apartheid looms large: the creation of a regulatory regime that, deeming their ‘business models’ unsustainable, will seek to banish them from the spaces they occupy. Those who feel nature must make way for ‘progress’ seem still to be guided by the thinking of THE AFRICA REPORT

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the Western industrial revolution, which led the planners of the colonial cities to plant them right on top of spaces that should have best been avoided. Much of eastern and southern Kampala – also a city prone to floods – is actually drained and filled-in swampland and waterways, as even the original local language place-names imply. Compounding an error by building further on the places created by another culture for very different imperatives may not be the wisest of the decisions that modern Africa’s governments are committing to. Alternatively, there could emerge a leadership that seeks to respect each ambition and find a happy medium between them by first addressing some questions: what are these cities for, and how will they feed and maintain themselves? However, the necessary rethink – which compels us all to reconsider our assumptions about what ‘development’ should actually mean in the African context – may threaten many of these entrenched interests. As for Mother Nature, she will continue to rain on all of man’s aspirations. ●

BRIEFING

CALENDAR

INVEST IN GHANA 21-22 October ACCRA | GHANA homestrings-events.com

XINHUA/AMRU SALAHUDDIEN/CORBIS

COTE D’IVOIRE AND TANZANIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 25 October See page 30 for our Tanzania coverage and page 40 for our elections round-up.

EGYPT’S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 18 October Egyptians will finally get the chance to cast their vote in the country’s long-postponed parliamentary elections on 18 October, a key step in the country’s return to democracy following the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi by the army in 2013. The country has been without a parliament since June 2012, when it was dissolved by a court order. Polls to elect new members scheduled for March this year were delayed after part of the election law was deemed to be unconstitutional by the court. Reviving the parliament would go some way to countering claims of a lack of democracy and of authoritarianism by former army chief and current president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who has used his legislative powers to crack down hard on Islamists and secular political activists.

AFRICA HOTEL INVESTMENT FORUM 30 Sept. – 1 Oct. ADDIS ABABA | ETHIOPIA africa-conference.com

ECOMOF 6-8 October ACCRA | GHANA All 15 ECOWAS member countries will be represented at the organisation’s first-ever mining and petroleum forum, with Ghana’s President John Mahama delivering the keynote speech. ecomof.com

MOBILE 360 SERIES – AFRICA 7-9 October CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA What’s new in the mobile phone industry. mobile360series.com/africa

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE 9 October

IPAD OIL & GAS 15-16 October

OSLO | NORWAY 33-year-old Ugandan activist Victor Ochen is among the nominees. nobelprize.org

KINSHASA | DRC ipad-oilgas.com

WORLD BANK & IMF ANNUAL MEETINGS 9-11 October Commodity-dependent Peru holds lessons for Africa. LIMA | PERU imf.org

DRC MINING & INFRASTRUCTURE INDABA 15-16 October KINSHASA | DRC Speakers include Randgold Resources’ Mark Bristow. ipad-drc.com M

NEW LIBYA OIL & GAS FORUM 19-21 October

See page 40.

KIGALI | RWANDA After the Global Philanthropy Forum in April, its regional affiliate will bring African philanthropists and social investors together to discuss strategic giving and investing on the continent. philanthropyforum.org

AFRICA OIL WEEK 26-30 October CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA africa-oilweek.com

AFRICA INVESTMENT FORUM 27-29 October ADDIS ABABA | ETHIOPIA africainvestmentforum.net

THE ECONOMIST ETHIOPIA SUMMIT 28-29 October

LONDON | UK libyaoilgas.com

GUINEA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 11 October

AFRICAN PHILANTHROPY FORUM (APF) 26-27 October

FIBRE TO THE HOME CONFERENCE 20-21 October KIGALI | RWANDA ftthcouncilafrica-conference.com

ADDIS ABABA | ETHIOPIA Discussing Ethiopia’s business and investment potential. economist.com/eventsconferences/emea

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21-22 March 2016, Abidjan

4th EDITION

THE FOREMOST INTERNATIONAL MEETING FOR AFRICAN CEOS, BANKERS AND INVESTORS 2016 will mark the fourth edition of the AFRICA CEO FORUM. Since its inception in 2012, the AFRICA CEO FORUM has established itself as the foremost event devoted to promoting the African private sector. Each year, the event brings together more than 800 world-class CEOs, bankers and investors, cementing its reputation as a mustattend event for top African business leaders. A unique platform for thoughtprovoking discussions, the AFRICA CEO FORUM is an excellent opportunity for you to develop your business, shape your strategy and enhance your companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s competitiveness. theafricaceoforum.com Twitter: @africaceoforum - #ACF2016

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FRONTLINE

NIGERIA/ SOUTH AFRICA

Breaki

With a Nigerian at the head of the AfDB and a South African representing the AU, never has the time been riper for South Africa and Nigeria to forgive past disagreements and lead the continent towards greater cooperation By Crystal Orderson in Cape Town and Patrick Smith

et another session of handwringing over the laggardly progress towards a pan-African common market was under way at the Port Louis conference centre in Mauritius when Nduka Obaigbena, Nigeriaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rumbustious press baron, burst into the conversation: â&#x20AC;&#x153;If we want an African economic union, we need to do one thing: set up a Nigeria-South Africa free trade

ing the cycle zone tomorrow and invite the rest of the continent to join us,” he said. Rows of earnest conference-goers nodded sagely at Obaigbena’s impetuosity, murmuring comments about “rivalries and Realpolitik” and “confidencebuilding”. But far from being an idealistic radical, Obaigbena is a die-hard capitalist whose efforts to extend his ThisDay newspaper empire from Nigeria to South

Africa soared then crashed and burned in a year and a half. The newspaper closed its doors in 2004. His idea of a Nigeria-South Africa free trade zone is not part of a futurist manifesto but was one of the cardinal aims when the two countries established their bi-national commission in 1999. After that bold start, diplomatic relations have gradually flagged, punctuated by

spats and perceived slights peppered with a dash of history. The idea of a free trade zone between two big economies kickstarting regional integration has strong historical roots. France and Germany – bitter enemies in two world wars and also Europe’s biggest economies – blazed a trail to form a coal and steel community, essentially the foundation stone of today’s

PHOTOMONTAGE TAR; MATTHIEU SPOHN/CORBIS ; DIMITRI VERVITSIOTIS/GETTY IMAGES; GETTY IMAGES; SIPA

Presidents Zuma and Buhari: off to a good start, if only they could work out where they are going

FRONTLINE | NIGERIA /SOUTH AFRICA: BREAKING THE CYCLE

European Union. They started that process just six years after the end of World War II: political differences gave way to the commercial logic of a free trade area and economic integration. Nigeria and South Africa should be playing that same locomotive role in Africa. They are the continent’s top destinations for investment and have the market size to offer a solid economic platform: Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy with a gross domestic product of $568.5bn and South Africa is its second with $349.8bn. Commercial ties are on an upward course, albeit at a fraction of the pace that they should be. Compared to their transformative potential, Nigeria-South African relations are almost dysfunctional. What is the problem? According to experts in Abuja and Pretoria, it is a mixture of personal chemistry, or lack thereof, and domestic politics outweighing foreign policy in both countries. Obed Bapela, a deputy minister in South Africa’s presidency, sounds the enthusiastic charge: “Look, you cannot ignore Nigeria. It will be to your peril if you do so. Nigeria is a factor in the continent, so we are a factor. We need each other. And we need to continuously build the relationships.” Bapela concedes the importance of personal chemistry in bilateral relations: “They sometimes get sour depending on the leader at the time. [...] There’s hope now the relations will be better between Nigeria and South Africa than during [President Goodluck] Jonathan’s time. We will be engaging the new party [the All Progressives Congress (APC)]

in Nigeria. The secretary general of the African National Congress [ANC] has already written to them inviting them for a meeting. I will be following up by probably going to Nigeria.” The ANC, which makes government policy, has a clear view on diplomatic strategy: “We always have our own national interests to serve, but we also have the interests of the continent.” Bapela explains that South Africa’s closest relations will be with those parties that have grown out of liberation movements, like the ANC itself, and are part of what it regards as progressive movement in its widest sense. According to him, the ANC sees Nigeria’s new governing party as part of the progressive movement, even if the two may have ideological differences. South Africa’s deputy foreign affairs minister, Luwellyn Landers, says the tensions between presidents Jacob Zuma and Goodluck Jonathan over a host of diplomatic issues put a brake on the relationship for five years. It was a nonrelationship, according to Professor Mills Soko at the University of Cape Town: “Zuma and Jonathan don’t think and had nothing in common. Both were weak domestically when they came into power, they lacked charisma and respect.”

Petroleum is one of Nigeria’s biggest exports and South Africa’s biggest imports

Unionsummit[...].Thetwoleaderstalked on the sidelines and that’s always good.” Landers expects that Zuma and Buhari will make official visits to each other’s country within the next year: “There is a realstrategicplantoworkclosertogether.” Professor Soko is more sceptical: “Both leaders face economic challenges: oil prices are at an all-time low, as are commodity prices in South Africa. The South African leadership is very weak and not able to govern a modern industrial state. If a country is weak domestically, their international standing is also weak. Buhari might be better, but the jury is out on the future relationship between the two.”

GETTING CLOSER

Landers predicts there will be close relations between the two governing parties, adding that there are already signs of a warmer relationship since the change in government in Nigeria: “President Zuma went to Nigeria for President [Muhammadu] Buhari’s inauguration, and then Buhari was here for the African

A century of common goals and diplomatic spats After the Boer War, the British combined several colonial territories to form the segregated Union of South Africa. It became the Republic of South Africa on 31 May 1961.

1 October 1960 Nigeria gained independence from Britain. Nigeria’s first republic ended with the assassination of Prime Minister Abubakar Balewa in 1966, and the country entered into civil war.

1977

1989

27 April 1994

ANC external affairs chief Thabo Mbeki opened an office for the party in Lagos. He formed many relationships that would later help to strengthen relations between South Africa and Nigeria.

“This uprising will bring out the beast in us,” was South Africa’s President P. W. Botha’s reaction to violence in Soweto. In reply, Nigerian Afrobeat pioneer Fela Anikulapo Kuti released the song Beasts of No Nation.

Released from prison four years earlier, Nelson Mandela was elected president in the first free and fair vote in South Africa.

1986 Nigeria’s former military leader Olusegun Obasanjo was appointed to the Commonwealth’s Eminent Persons Group to mediate negotiations with South Africa’s apartheid regime.

JERRY HOLT/AP/SIPA

31 May 1910 POPPERFOTO/GETTY IMAGES

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FRONTLINE

African relations was during the presidencies of Olusegun Obasanjo and Thabo Mbeki, respectively. Professor Soko agrees: “Mbeki and Obasanjo had the ability to communicate a pan-African visionandhadcredibilityandwerestrong leaders domestically. They were respected internationally [and] by other African leaders, and worked very well together.”

From Nigeria’s point of view, Kayode Fayemi, the head of the APC’s policy unit and former governor of Ekiti State, says there is an urgent need to strengthen ties: “If there is an upside to the current international economic pressures, it is to push African countries to diversify and trade more with each other.” There should be great synergy between the two countries, Fayemi adds, but it will require much planning and policy development as well as the rebuilding of mutual trust. He explains: “Nigeria has the market size and resources, but South Africa has more technology and developed markets. An effective economic strategy for

November October 1999 1995 Under presidents Mbeki and President Mandela clashed with military ruler Sani Abacha over the hanging of Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight others from the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People.

Obasanjo, South Africa and Nigeria founded a bi-national commission to bolster their relationship. Since its first meeting in Abuja, the body has facilitated the signing of a series of treaties on trade and cooperation.

16 May 2001 South African mobile phone company MTN launched operations in Nigeria, which rapidly became its largest market. This year, the company announced that its subscriber base has risen to 61.1 million people.

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both countries needs cooperation, but personal ties are also critical.” Fayemi tracked the highs and lows in Nigerian-South African relations since the end of apartheid, pointing out how different officials and politicians at different levels affected the outcome. For example, there was the jubilation in 1994 after South Africa held its first democratic elections and Nelson Mandela became president. That same year, Nigeria was under General Sani Abacha’s junta, the most repressive and corrupt regime the country had seen to date. Without doubt, says Fayemi, the highest point so far in Nigeria-South

Again, personal chemistry was key. Mbeki was sent to Nigeria in 1977 and 1978 – during Obasanjo’s stint as military head of state – to set up an ANC office in Lagos. From its independence in 1960, Nigeria had helped finance the ANC and chaired the United Nations (UN) special committee against apartheid. From then on, public servants donated 2% of their salaries to the anti-apartheid cause. By 1978, the fund had raised some $28m. Such shared histories – Obasanjo and Mbeki became good friends but not ideological soulmates – laid the groundwork for an effective bilateral diplomatic strategy after 1999 when both men were elected president. Both saw the opportunity to advance the cause of pan-Africanism: by reforming the Organisation of African Unity into the African Union (AU); establishing the New Partnership for Africa’s Development as a fund to build regional projects that would knit economies together; and launching the African Peer Review Mechanism, which assesses governance standards across the continent. Finally, there was to be a new era of security cooperation. There would be a pan-African force of trained peacekeepers, as African ● ● ●

May 2012 September 2014

29 May 2015

At the eighth meeting of the NigeriaSouth Africa bi-national commission, the countries announced their plans to launch a free trade zone. It has yet to make much progress.

South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma attended the inauguration ceremony of Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari in Abuja.

At Lanseria airport, South African officials intercepted two Nigerians on a mission to buy arms with $9.3m in cash. A diplomatic quarrel ensued. South Africa returned the money to the Nigerian government in July 2015.

12 September 2014 A building attached to pastor T.B. Joshua’s church in Lagos collapsed, killing 70 visiting South Africans. Nigeria’s police blocked the involvement of South African investigators and delayed the release of the bodies.

SUNDAY ALAMBA/AP/SIPA

DENIS ALLARD/REA

ANTI-APARTHEID SUPPORT

FRONTLINE | NIGERIA /SOUTH AFRICA: BREAKING THE CYCLE

Nigeria and South Africa compared NIGERIA

SOUTH AFRICA

Population

178.5 million

54 million

GDP (2014)

$568.5bn

$349.8bn

GDP per capita (2014)

$1,817

$6,595

External debt stock (2013)

$13.8bn

$139.8bn

Foreign Direct Investment (2013)

$5.6bn

$8.2bn

UNDP Human Development Index Ranking (2014)

152nd out of 187 countries

118th out of 187 countries

Mo Ibrahim Good Governance Index (2014)

37th out of 52 countries

4th out of 52 countries

Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births)

Primary school net enrolment rate

85% (2010)

101% (2013)

Mobile phone subscriptions (per 100 people, 2014)

150

Imports

$35.9bn

$103.5bn

Exports

$143.2bn

$95.2bn

Main imports

Motor vehicles, rice, wheat and meslin, fish

Petroleum and crude oil, commodities, cars

Main exports

Petroleum and crude oil, Platinum, gold, iron petroleum gases, rubber ores, coal

ECONOMICS

SOURCES: WORLD BANK, IMF, UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX, UN COMTRADE, FAO AND UNESCO

● ● ● soldiers are the backbone of many UN peacekeeping missions around the world and a rapid reaction force could prevent a repeat of horrors such as Rwanda’s genocide in 1994. Behind this grandiose new continental architecture, a lot of diplomatic legwork was needed to win the support of most of Africa’s then 53 states, says Fayemi: “Diplomats such as Tunji Olagunju, Nigeria’s ambassador to South Africa at the time, played a key role in pushing forward the binational commission between the two countries.” There was a clear recognition at that stage, says Fayemi, that Nigeria and South Africa should have accelerated cooperation and convergence of their economies. It was not just the friendship between the two presidents that bonded the countries: “The deputy presidents, Atiku Abubakar and Jacob Zuma, and their teams worked on the detail for the commission, and the two men became quite close,” he explains.

SPECIAL ENVOYS

President Buhari’s government should be able to draw these threads together and craft a more functional policy towards SouthAfrica.“Buhariisverygoodat using special envoys [...], Atiku has been sent to South Africa on various missions,” says Fayemi. “Once the new cabinet is in place there will be much more formal interaction on diplomacy and security and the economic ministries, finance and trade in particular.” Ronak Gopaldas, head of country risk for Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg, argues that the Nigerians and South Africans in Africa’s top regional organisations will do more “to flex their muscles

The heart of the matter

ECONOMICS SHOULD DRIVE Nigeria and South Africa closer together. Structurally, the prospects are bright: the two economies are quite different in terms of resources, productive capacity, technological development and market size. Nigerian companies rail against trade with South Africa, caricaturing it as a neo-colonial pattern: Nigeria’s commodities and raw materials in exchange for South Africa’s manufacturing

and services. Yet South African banks – Nedbank with 20% of Ecobank, Rand Merchant Bank building up its network and Barclays Africa targeting investment banking – are ramping up operations in Nigeria. Likewise, South Africa’s service and retail companies – DStv satellite television, ShopRite supermarkets, SABMiller breweries and Protea Hotels – are carving up Nigeria’s mass market to the frustration of

local companies. Banking analyst Jude Fejokwu argues that Nigerian companies lack the discipline to compete with their South African counterparts. South Africa’s MTN was the breakthrough company. It wrangled its telecoms licence from the chaotic bidding rounds in 2001. A decade and a half later, Nigeria is its most profitable operation worldwide. But that model is changing: there are now a host of world-class Nigerian

telecoms and technology companies going head to head with MTN on service and prices. Some middle-class Nigerians complain that South African companies have taken the West African market for granted. That they might make that point while talking on a MTN cellphone and driving their South African-made Toyota into the car park at ShopRite in central Lagos tells its own story. ● Leo Lawal in Lagos and P.S.

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and shape the direction of the continent”. South Africa’s Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma chairs the AU, and both the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the African Export-Import Bank have new Nigerian presidents – former agriculture minister Akinwumi Adesina and veteran banker Benedict Oramah, respectively. Yet competition for these leadership positions creates its own nationalist friction. There was an unwritten rule that Africa’s largest countries should not run for the head of either the AU or the AfDB on the principle that their better-resourced and -networked candidates would have a greater chance of winning, and their control of such organisations would concentrate too much power in their hands. So far, the sky has not fallen in. But South Africa’s deputy minister Bapela recalls a tough time canvassing in Nigeria for Dlamimi-Zuma at the AU: “The former president of Nigeria refused to meet us. We failed to convince the government of Nigeria, but we did convince the party.” Bapela says that at the last minute the Nigerian delegation, which had earlier supported Gabon’s Jean Ping for a second term, changed its mind to support Dlamini-Zuma. Whatever the case, this year South Africa switched votes quickly from the Southern African candidate, Zimbabwe’s Job Sikhala, to Nigeria’s Adesina for the AfDB presidency. In many ways, the AfDB presidency is more strategically important than the (more contentious) AU Commission chair, because of the resources it controls. Despite Obasanjo’s committee investigating new sources of internal financing, ● ● ●

POLITICS

Collaboration in medical science could lead to more breakthroughs like the malaria vaccine

Are you talking to me?

A PHOTOGRAPHER – one who found himself accidentally on purpose at the back of a room booked by South Africa’s delegation at the AU’s Addis Ababa headquarters in January 2012 – emerged with an instructive vignette about regional relations. Inside, presidents Jacob Zuma of South Africa and José Eduardo dos Santos of Angola were haranguing Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan about his THE AFRICA REPORT

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backing for Côte d'Ivoire’s Alassane Ouattara in the post-election turmoil. Why could Jonathan not understand that Laurent Gbagbo was the African candidate and that Ouattara was the cat’s paw of the French presidency and his business friends? Jonathan acquitted himself with some style, paying due deference to the elder statesmen. Everyone can take a view on the election, he replied, but ECOWAS had debated the

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matter at length after taking evidence from the UN about the conduct of Côte d’Ivoire’s election. When The Africa Report asked Jonathan about the conversation, he said simply that ECOWAS would not intervene in Southern Africa’s policy on Zimbabwe, so there should be some diplomatic reciprocity. “Are we going to take dictation from each other?” he asked, sounding as if he was back in college. Both sides probably

felt vindicated three months later when French troops helped chase Gbagbo from power. But such an exchange would never happen between Muhammadu Buhari and Zuma and Dos Santos. Coming from the military’s nationalist tradition, Buhari holds no brief for external powers but insists that West Africa will decide the policies and alliances that best suit its purposes, regardless of the P.S. opinion of others. ●

NIC BOTHMA/EPA/CORBIS

INSTITUTIONAL POWER

FRONTLINE

● ● ● such as airline or financial transaction taxes, the AU remains chronically dependent on foreign – particularly European and Chinese – funding. Rand Merchant Bank’s Gopaldas, whoseinstitutionisgettingmoreinvolved in Nigeria, says it would serve the leaders of both countries to pay more attention to the links between foreign policy and trade and economic growth. “With the oil price where it is and the [Nigerian] economy under pressure, that has to be the focus in the short term. But as things become clearer for both countries, it would be silly to ignore each other.” South Africa is paying the price for neglecting diplomatic strategy, says Gopaldas: “Under the Mbeki government, foreign policy was a core priority, but it’s not the same under the Zuma government.” On both sides there needs to be some hard thinking about the economic relationship, argues Gopaldas: “In Nigeria, economic growth is at about 7% and there are over 150 million people. Comparatively, at home there are limited growth opportunities for South African companies.”

EATEN ALIVE

Both sides are too parochial, he argues: “What is the incentive for Nigerian companies to look outside? They stick to what they know. But Nigeria is very receptive to private investment. On the other hand, South Africa puts out confusing messages to private companies, such as the Walmart issue.” [The government approved the US company’s acquisition of 51% of Massmart in 2011, then lodged an appeal with the competition commission.] South African officials should also understand that the recent spate of

SECURITY

UNATHI NGAMNTWINI/GCIS/EPA/MAXPPP

Bilateral talks on the sidelines of the AU summit in Johannesburg in June gave every sign of warm relations between the two leaders

xenophobic attacks hugely damaged perceptions about their country and what it wants to do politically and commercially, Gopaldas adds. Notwithstanding, South African companies continue to expand in Nigeria. Nigerian banking analyst Jude Fejokwu complains his country’s economy is “being eaten alive”. Because of a lack of imagination from Nigerian companies targeting South Africa and a lack of backing from their government: “Africa’s most advanced economy is taking Africa’s biggest economy to the cleaners.” Atedo Peterside, chairman of Stanbic IBTC Bank, says Nigerian companies take an unsentimental view: “I think it is about opportunities. There are better

opportunities elsewhere for Nigerians. Investors will go where they believe they will get the best returns […]. I would certainly not describe South Africa as the land of opportunity. Would you? It is a mature and oligopolistic market with difficult and politically active trade unions.” That has not put off Nigeria’s Dangote Group, which has been expanding into South Africa.“We’ve investedin Sephaku, which is a big cement plant. Over the last few years we’ve invested over $200m there,” says vice-president Sani Dangote. “It was really on the verge of collapse, and we invested majority shares there and the company is doing well.” Dangote expects many more small and medium-sized companies from Nigeria

Guns, sadza and plantain

OF ALL THE GRAND PLANS minted by Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo during the golden years of the South Africa-Nigeria partnership, military cooperation has seen the least progress. On conflict resolution, the two sides rarely pull their weight together. They often divide their labour or differ fundamentally on strategy. But a more positive pattern is emerging according to Nigeria’s Kayode Fayemi. “On negotiations

to end South Sudan’s war, you have Abdulsalami Abubakar and Thabo Mbeki as special envoys on the same side pushing for agreement. That is really important,” he says. Big African countries, which have the economic and military means, can change conditions on the ground in ways that outside countries and agencies cannot. Nigeria helped to restore stability in Liberia and Sierra Leone, although they almost

became Abuja’s fiefdoms. South Africa’s operations in Lesotho turned into a tragic farce, but its DRC intervention battalion, alongside Tanzania’s and Angola’s, was highly successful, outshining the UN mission. Although both countries have contributed troops to the UN and AU mission in Darfur, neither have been able to protect civilians from the Khartoum regime’s escalating attacks. Once in power, President Buhari

quickly ended a clandestine cooperation deal President Jonathan’s government had with South African mercenaries to fly helicopter gunship missions against Boko Haram-held towns in north-eastern Nigeria. Although the mercenaries claimed to have regained 90% of Boko Haram’s territory, Buhari insisted that the Nigerian commanders would set up a headquarters in the region and retake full control P.S. of military operations. ●

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OPINION

Patrick Smith Editor in chief, The Africa Report

Pedalling in the same direction

to go to South Africa to look for niches in its more developed market and perhaps for technology transfers. Nigerian companies could also learn much from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, he adds, but he concedes that the experience of Lagos-based Oando on the South African capital markets has not been very positive. It seems South Africa and Nigeria’s capital markets are a long way away from convergence or even close cooperation. Legal and migration issues still grate on Nigerian businesspeople travelling to South Africa. Bapela says it is partly a technical issue because Nigeria’s biometric identity cards, which people use for voting and local transactions, are not compatible with South Africa’s identity card database. But the frequent visas and migration contretemps – such as when 125 Nigerian businesspeople were turned back from Johannesburg in March 2012 for having the wrong yellow fever certificates – are becoming roadblocks to a more panAfricanist zeitgeist. If the two biggest economies on the continent cannot work closely on immigration or a coherent strategy towards Asia and Europe, what are the chances for Africa’s other 52 states and what will it take to implement plans foranAfricanpassportandthefreemovement of people? As international economic stringency follows a decade of phenomenal growth in Africa, building transport links and fibre-optic cables between Africa’s two biggest economies is far more than a bureaucratic pursuit. It may soon become a financial necessity. ● THE AFRICA REPORT

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he first lines in the new chapter of Nigeria-South Africa relations presage a warming up. Within days of his election victory in April, President Muhammadu Buhari called President Jacob Zuma to explain that his government wanted to build a far stronger relationship between their two countries. And the two had face-to-face meetings both at Buhari’s inauguration in May and the African Union summit in June. This new chapter starts from a low base. The bi-national commission between the two countries turned 16 years old in October, but a plethora of bureaucratic irritants still snag the relationship. Only halting progress has been made towards a free trade zone. Part of the problem is the commercial imbalance. There are more than 100 substantial South African companies in Nigeria but only two significant Nigerian investments in South Africa. Bilateral trade hit about $3bn in 2012, but most of that was Nigeria’s oil shipments to South Africa. A rebalancing of ties could increase cooperation with incentives for small and medium-sized Nigerian companies to invest in South Africa, financial backing for technology transfers and more intellectual exchanges. To corral support for the free trade area, a few high-profile and job-creating joint ventures would speed things up. Building successful joint projects would dissipate some of the antipathy towards big South African suppliers of goods and services. For now, there is a weird double standard under which Nigerians complain about imports of goods and services from South Africa but not those from Europe or Asia. The underlying problem was the near collapse of Nigerian manufacturing in the 1980s. This year’s start up of a Ford assembly plant just south of Abuja, which will import South African components, could revitalise the two countries’ trading and technical relationship. Other companies such as Toyota, Kia and Peugeot are planning similar regional tie-ups. Both governments could provide incentives for additional deals. Two of Buhari’s economic priorities – expanding Nigerian manufacturing and processing and clamping down on illicit financial outflows – would greatly benefit from cooperation with South Africa. Lessons could be learned from South Africa’s Motor Industry Development Programme: it has created about 280,000 jobs in its auto and component industry. One of Africa’s fastest-urbanising countries, Nigeria has to create hundreds of thousands of jobs around its cities. There could be benefits for both sides if South Africa developed more partnerships and joint ventures instead of shipping finished goods to Nigeria. The volume of trade would grow as would the number of jobs in both countries. Both governments could offer advantages on tariffs and state procurement to such companies. Building African manufacturing capacity and creating jobs is exactly the foundation that enthusiasts for strong bilateral ties need when they make their case in the corridors of power and beyond. ●

POLITICS

TANZANIA

The

change

game Tanzania is in the throes of a bruising presidential campaign as a former CCM leader takes on his old party – which has been in power since independence – while the latter promises changes from within

By Erick Kabendera and Parselelo Kantai in Dar es Salaam

Unprecedented numbers of people turned out for the two main parties’ campaign launches in Dar es Salaam

DANIEL HAYDUK/AFP

n what promises to be Tanzania’s closest-ever elections, two political juggernauts – the long-time ruling partyandanewoppositioncoalition– launched their campaigns in late August at the historic Jangwani Grounds in Dar es Salaam. The turnouts were impressive, unprecedented even, despite suspicions that many people were bussed in by both sides to impress television viewers. At both events, nightfall put a stop to what was becoming a tedious unveiling of campaign manifestos. Ahead of the 25 October vote, the language of change is on everyone’s lips, its symbols are everywhere, but few are interested in its details. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is promising change by choosing as its presidential candidate John Magufuli, who

has a reputation for honesty and opposition to corruption that contrasts sharply with the party’s recent performance. Its opponents – the Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (UKAWA) coalition, headed by former prime minister and former CCM loyalist Edward Lowassa – promise change through the defeat of the longtime ruling party together with a huge improvement in living standards. Tanzania is entering a critical period both economically and politically. Whoever wins the presidency will have to make crucial decisions about the country’s massive natural gas reserves, the management of the newly created staterun agriculture bank, the development of new port and logistics infrastructure at Bagamoyo, the incomplete constitutional reforms that the Kikwete government

POLITICS

started and the relationship between the mainland and the island of Zanzibar. Voters say they are looking for political change and a real fight against corruption. An energy scandal last year saw more than $180m diverted from the central bank, prompting cuts of nearly $500m in foreign aid. President Jakaya Kikwete, who was behind the choice of Magufuli, said, as the campaign got under way: “The public is agitated when they see reports on how the accounts are in some government departments – how the money has been misspent and misdirected.” MAGUFULI SAYS ‘NO MERCY’

Yet Kikwete’s record on fighting corruption has not impressed manyTanzanians. One of the reasons why the CCM chose Magufuli – he won more than 80% of the votes in the primary elections in July – is that he represents a change within the party. Magufuli is the government’s works minister, and he has run his department efficiently. Some of Magufuli’s anti-corruption rhetoric is reminiscent of Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari. From his 20 years in government, Magufuli has emerged with a good reputation: “I won’t have mercy with civil servants who are stealing public money

and who keep asking people who go for don’t have jobs,” Bakari explains. When services in public offices to come back Lowassa was campaigning for the CCM the following day. Such people will not nomination he focused heavily on the have a place in my government,” Maguissues of youth and education, but they fuli said in a campaign speech in Chato, have been getting much less attention his former constituency. now that he is the UKAWA flagbearer. Magufuli is also promising to reform To what extent can UKAWA, the opthe CCM itself: “Nobody was born with position coalition of four parties, hope the party, so the issues of the party should to address those frustrations and aspirbe put to the side and we’ll move Tanations? UKAWA was born out of public outrage at CCM’s attempts to tinker zania forward. We need to focus on buildwith a new draft constitution this year. ing a united country.” At the same time, the opposition party For certain, the political fight has gripped Tanzania. Giant billboards tower bosses saw the political opportunities over highways as the flags of political created by a government steeped in partiesflutterinthebreeze.SaleheBakari, corruption. Opposition activists insist 28, selling books and plastic flowers at that the CCM’s record on corruption a busy crossroads, says it is time for a is the main issue for their supporters. new political party to run things: “You can’t vote for Opposition activists insist the party which has made us that the CCM’s record on poor, and President Jakaya Kikwete’s government has corruption is the main issue been dogged by scandals.” That places UKAWA presidential canHe says the CCM is the problem. “You didate Lowassa, 62, in an invidious poscan’t detach Magufuli from the party even if people are saying he is clean.” For ition, both in relation to his former allies Bakari and many of his friends, the elecin the CCM and indeed to some key figtion should be about jobs and helping ures in the opposition parties. A couple the youth, who make up about half of the of years ago, Chama cha Demokrasia country’s 50 million people. “As young na Maendeleo (Chadema), the largest people, we feel let down because we party in the opposition alliance, pub-

OPINION

Parselelo Kantai Journalist and author

What does change mean?

hange has become its own destination, running on the energy of deep-seated and widespread frustration. The object of that frustration is the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). It has been in power since independence in 1961 – although it adopted its present name in 1977 – and everybody says the CCM needs to be reformed,

including its presidential candidate, John Magufuli. No party in Africa has been in power longer and has so carefully stage-managed its transitions. From singleparty to multiparty rule, from espousing socialism to embracing the invisible hand of the market, changing party presidents and national executive committees, the CCM’s changes – predictable

and orderly on the outside, noisy and rancorous within – have lent Tanzania a sense of stability. The CCM has not just been a constant feature in the political landscape; it is the political landscape. During the CCM’s campaign launch rally at the Jangwani grounds on 23 August, several speakers rose to proclaim the virtues of permanent change – that

only under the CCM, with its mission of constant revolution, could change be delivered. At their rally, also at the Jangwani grounds a week later, the Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (UKAWA) opposition coalition turned the talk of CCM’s mission of change on its head. They replayed on a tape loop a clip from a speech in 1995 by Julius Nyerere, the founding

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lished the orodha ya mafisadi – a ‘list of shame’ – in which Lowassa featured prominently for his role in the Richmond energy scandal, which had forced him to resign as prime minister in 2008. In the aftermath of the scandal, Lowassa acquired a new nickname: ‘Lo-Rushwa’ (rushwa is Swahili for bribe). CCM IS A SYSTEM

father of the CCM. In it, he predicts that the only way the CCM will lose power will be for one of its own to leave the party for the opposition. And of course, UKAWA’s presidential candidate Edward Lowassa, a former prime minister in a CCM government, has done just that and taken some CCM militants with him. Lowassa’s popularity, despite the corruption claims against him, dates back to 1995 when he first bid for the CCM presidential ticket. He lost out, partly because Nyerere had excoriated him for his sudden personal wealth, suggesting that it was improperly gained. Lowassa’s defection to the opposition threatens the CCM’s grassroots support. His support within the ruling THE AFRICA REPORT

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party runs deep. Members of the influential CCM Youth League for instance, tell The Africa Report that while they notionally remained in the CCM they were working for Lowassa. The Youth League has a membership of more than 4 million people. In some ways, the real winner of this game of musical chairs is the CCM presidential candidate, John Magufuli. A cabinet minister since 1995, Magufuli is known as a hard worker and a dedicated party man who has never been tarred with corruption allegations. Magufuli was quick to distance himself from the party’s recent dirty history. One of his main pledges was to establish special anti-

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President Jakaya Kikwete has said he can’t wait to step down as president

DANIEL HAYDUK/AFP

Lowassa and his allies face a difficult battle against the incumbent CCM. The first electoral opinion survey of the campaign, conducted by the pollsters at Sauti za Wananchi in August and September, reported that 65% of those surveyed planned to vote for Magufuli. “CCM is not a party. It is a system. It incorporates everyone – the civil service, the military, the grassroots and the private sector. When you retire, it is CCM that takes care of you. Generals who retire are sent to the regions to become administrators; civil servants go into business on the promise of government contracts. You cannot escape it,” explains a party insider. The oppositionists hope that hammering away at the CCM’s record will build up their support. At Jangwani during the UKAWA rally, Frederick Sumaye, another former premier and recently defector to the opposition, stoutly ● ● ●

corruption courts, a promise that seemed to elicit genuine enthusiasm. The works minister is, however, hamstrung by his lack of political visibility. More than 24 million Tanzanians have registered to vote in the 25 October elections, and 75% of them are expected to join the queues on election day. About 10 million of the registered electorate are first-time voters. And as the wazee (elders in Kiswahili) of the CCM, the generation who were brought into politics under Nyerere, leave the stage, there is the sense of the slate being wiped clean. That is the real meaning of change: both the two main candidates and many of the

voters will be facing each other for the first time. But the script has changed again. It is not the classic incumbent party against a fresh-faced opposition. Instead, the old ruling party is offering a new and relatively unknown face who wants to change radically the way the government works. Magufuli holds out the possibility of a renewal of the political culture. And the opposition is offering a dissident from the ranks of the ruling party, essentially a change of the guard. It calculates that Lowassa’s name recognition, for good or ill, will finally deliver victory. Either way, change will come. Except that by the time it arrives, it may be devoid of any real meaning. ●

POLITICS

PROFILE

KHALFAN SAID/AP/SIPA

John Magufuli Presidential candidate, Chama Cha Mapinduzi

Modest man seeks tough action THE CHOICE OF THE SERIOUS-MINDED works minister John Magufuli as the governing party’s presidential candidate looks like a cunning but improbable plan to outflank the opposition coalition. By general assent, the theme of Tanzania’s elections is ‘change’: that obviously challenges the incumbent Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). So along comes Magufuli, one of the lesser-known ministers but one with a reputation for honesty and efficiency. He has a plan to change both the party and the country. So the CCM spin doctors contrast Magufuli with his opponent, Edward Lowassa, a CCM veteran who conspicuously benefited from his years in government and then crossed over to the opposition. As Magufuli battles to be the candidate of change, the CCM is trying to present Lowassa as the bitter incumbent who was forced out by a reforming party. Many would reject such a narrative, certainly the claim that CCM is dead-set on reform. In recognition of the public’s disaffection for the CCM, Magufuli appears at times to be campaigning separately from his party, even if he benefits from its nationwide reach and huge resources. Magufuli is credible when he explains his plans for industrialisation, expansion of farm production, the winning of new export markets and the abolition of fees for primary and secondary schools. Unlike Lowassa, Magufuli gets into policy specifics, pledging to cut costs so more Tanzanians can buy their own homes and to establish a special court to fast-track the prosecution of those accused of corruption. Even if those kinds of policy points have not played a big role in the election campaign, Magufuli’s promise of tough action to improve public services and to punish civil servants demanding bribes has struck a chord. He is little-known among the CCM’s grassroots members because he has never held a top position within the party hierarchy. Instead, Magufuli has concentrated on his academic career – his doctorate is in chemistry – and his work as a minister. Here, he has overseen the biggest investments in publicly funded infrastructure since independence. The contracts have not been tainted by corruption claims, and Magufuli and his wife live modestly. She is a primary school teacher and their children go to state schools. ● P.K.

● ● ● defended his colleague Lowassa. Did the scandals end with Lowassa’s exit?, he asked the crowd. They roared back a unanimous “No!”. Beyond the rhetoric, UKAWA now finds itself in the curious position of being one of the few opposition parties in Africa that has difficulty standing on an anti-corruption platform. That is the priceoftheLowassatrade-off.Theopposition gets the name recognition, political networks and campaign contributions that Lowassa brings, but it also gets some of the CCM’s historical baggage. It is a gamble. An opposition podium populated by the CCM old guard proclaiming their political martyrdom at the hands of acynicalrulingpartymachinerystretches the credulity of the crowd. Lowassa’s arrival as presidential candidate has boosted the hopes of many of Chadema’s supporters. “People are just craving for change. People are craving for the opportunity to see CCM out of government, out of office. To us, Edward Lowassa presents the best opportunity to get rid of CCM. He is moving to Chadema with millions of supporters,” says Freeman Mbowe, Chadema’s chairman.

CORRUPTION STICKS

Lowassa has been flying across the country in a helicopter to speak at packed rallies in Mbeya, Iringa, Mwanza and Zanzibar. His opponents say he is in chronically poor health and reluctant to expose himself to scrutiny by journalists. Certainly, he has given interviews only to carefully selected outlets. His campaign pitch is blatantly materialistic (see profile). He steers away from the corruption claims that have dogged his career. Two long-standing opposition figures resigned from their leadership posts after Lowassa was chosen as UKAWA candidate in August: Wilbrod Slaa stepped down as secretary general of Chadema and Ibrahim Lipumba quit the Civic United Front, the biggest opposition party in Zanzibar. “Lowassa is fooling Tanzanians by making them believe that he hates poverty, but he is corrupt,” Slaa told the Raia Mwema newspaper. “We have evidence that implicates him in corruption scandals. We exposed him and how he had misappropriated public funds. I am not ready to support the candidacy of a corrupt person to state house.” Media coverage of Lowassa’s links to corrupt deals, as spelt in leaked US state department cables, appears ● ● ● THE AFRICA REPORT

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● ● ● to influence some voters. Pascazia Rwamwadi, 42, owns a mobile phone kiosk in Mwanza and backs Magufuli, who has been untarnished by corruption claims: “He is a committed person who deserves to become our next president […] his track record speaks for itself.”

LOW VISIBILITY

That may be the case for those who know Magufuli, but some in the CCM complain about his low visibility. “For Magufuli, his main challenge is that not only is he not known in the party, he also does not know people. Is there enough time to popularise such a candidate?” asks a former CCM Youth League official. Some of the harsher rhetoric in the campaign has raised concerns about the risks of violence: “A tight election or the perception of a rigged outcome could increase the chance of post-election violence in what has been one of Africa’s leading democracies and most peace-

ful countries,” says Johnnie Carson, a candidate. They continue to work hard former US assistant secretary of state to expose fraud and graft in the country’s for African affairs. fast-developing gas and energy sectors. Both sides are taking to social media, As the campaign bandwagons roll on, such concerns are losing out to a colourespecially Twitter. One of CCM’s most voluble proponents is January Makamba, ful personality contest, complete with thedeputycommunicationminister,who ever-inflating promises. However, the tweeted that Lowassa had “raped demoless glamorous side of the election – party cracy” to get Chadema’s presidential nomination. January Makamba tweeted Meanwhile, reports of the that Lowassa had “raped government’s incompetdemocracy” for his nomination ence are doing the rounds. A statement by Kikwete at a organisations across the country that can conference in Dar es Salaam was widely shared: “At times, I don’t even know how get out their voters – could still decide much money our security organs have. the contest. Lowassa boasts that he has They will tell me, you just wait and see brought over legions of young CCM acthow this country is kept safe and secure. ivists to the opposition who know and Don’t ask too many questions.” can counter the ruling party’s election Some of the strongest voices for good tricks. But have they got enough time governance, such as Zitto Kabwe, who to establish themselves? After all, they leads the Alliance for Change and Transare fighting Africa’s most experienced parency, have not lined up behind either ruling party to date. ●

PROFILE

RICHARD DREW/AP/SIPA

Edward Lowassa Presidential candidate, Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi

Popular, despite everything A veteran politician and a former friend of President Jakaya Kikwete, Edward Lowassa defected from the ruling party to the opposition coalition this year, throwing Tanzania’s political scene into uproar. Despite the controversy and corruption allegations that have dogged Lowassa’s career, he is one of the country’s best-known politicians and is regarded as a vote winner. Thin on specifics, Lowassa’s stump speeches are a mix of nationalist rhetoric about locals benefiting from foreign investors

and running the economy in way that will create jobs and end poverty. “If you have a car, you will get a second car […] if you have a bicycle, you will get 10 bicycles,” promises Lowassa. He joined the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) in his teenage years and rapidly climbed through the ranks, becoming an official in the party at the district level. Lowassa earned a reputation for his skills at organising and winning members for the party. This propelled him to the top of the party hierarchy and to ministerial office. Again, Lowassa’s political skills proved critical as he built up a network that went beyond party lines to wield influence in the civil service, the security forces and among businesspeople. Lowassa and Kikwete met as students at the University of Dar es Salaam, brought together by their interest in politics. In fact, Lowassa’s network was behind Kikwete’s first campaign for the party’s presidential nomination in 1995. Earlier, Lowassa himself had tried to get the nomination, but his bid was scuppered by Tanzania’s founding president Julius Nyerere. However, Lowassa stayed close to Kikwete: they presented themselves as reformists in the pro-market and business-friendly wing of the CCM. So when Kikwete ran for the party’s presidential nomination again in 2005, Lowassa was at his side. And at first, Lowassa prospered under the Kikwete presidency and eventually was appointed prime minister. But relations cooled as corruption and fraud scandals swirled around the government. One of the most serious alleged that Lowassa had improperly awarded an overpriced contract to a US-based firm called Richmond to build a power station in 2006. The scandal caused him to resign as prime minister in February 2008. Not only does Lowassa deny benefiting from the contract but he insists the scandal was used by political rivals to push him from office. His friendship with Kikwete foundered and the party hierarchy blocked Lowassa from vying for the CCM presidential nomination this year. ● E.K. THE AFRICA REPORT

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OPINION

John Githongo Chief executive, Inuka Kenya Trust

Truth, justice and the unbroken line of Kenya’s elites

n 11 September, hundreds of Mau Mau veterans who had fought the British Empire in Kenya between 1952 and 1960 gathered at Uhuru Park in Nairobi to unveil a statue in their honour. This followed a seminal legal decision handed down by a British court in June 2013, bringing an end to an epic battle that had taken four years. The court granted compensation to 5,200 now elderly Kenyans who had been the subject of torture and abuse at British hands during the Mau Mau rebellion. Just as importantly though, the British government also issued an unprecedented apology – concretised by this taxpayer-funded monument to those it had vilified and persecuted as a terrorist organisation. In unveiling the commemorative plaque at the ceremony, British high commissioner Christian Turner quoted foreign secretary William Hague’s statement on the settlement of the court case in 2013: “The British government sincerely regrets that these abuses took place. Torture and ill-treatment are abhorrent violations of human dignity which we unreservedly condemn.” One can consider this an admission of guilt – hopefully not the last with regard to atrocities committed in the colonial era – that is unprecedented in the history of that empire. It follows another apology, this time for atrocities committed during the first four decades of independence and made by Kenyan head of state Uhuru Kenyatta in March this year, following a recommendation by the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission. It is ironic that while the Mau Mau veterans celebrated this belated measure of recognition – and, with it, the raising of the possibility of a measure of justice and reconciliation – politicians allied to President Kenyatta and deputy president William Ruto were holding ‘prayer rallies’ in relation to the charges still pending against the latter at the International Criminal Court (ICC). Both had been charged with crimes against humanity related to a spasm of violence

that exploded after rigged elections in 2007. The violence was so intense that civil war might well have broken out had it not been for the intervention of the international community and civil society. In the elections that followed in 2013, Ruto and Kenyatta – who were on opposite political sides in 2007 – united against the ICC process. Their campaign in the run-up to the polls, and their conduct of national affairs immediately after controversially being elected while under

[At independence] imperial impunity was grafted onto the DNA of the incoming elite indictment, created the most focused foreign policy in Kenyan history: kill the ICC charges at all costs. The question of justice for the victims and survivors became a closed one. Justice, therefore, sits uncomfortably with the Kenyan elite in general. Kenya, in ways similar to, say, Algeria, Zimbabwe and South Africa, was constructed out of imperial impunity. In Kenya’s case, the impunity was grafted onto the DNA of the incoming elite. This explains why the project to recognise the abuses of the Mau Mau period was led by civil society not the state. The Kenyan elite’s strained relationship with truth and justice has in turn created a system that is under profound strain, especially since the promulgation of a liberal constitution in 2010 as part of the settlement that followed the 2007/2008 national neardeath experience. As a result, profound complexity and contradiction prevail. The most pressing contradiction is between the liberal constitution and the structure, traditions and culture of the ruling elite. The latter’s fight against the ICC has drawn legal, reputational THE AFRICA REPORT

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and bureaucratic blood from an international institution with ruthless and successful alacrity no developed or developing world elite had ever managed to achieve. The impunity expresses itself in economic crime as well. On the one hand, East Africa’s largest, most dynamic and innovative economy has thrived on the resilience and pragmatism of the Kenyan

Kenya now scores lower than Nigeria on the Corruption Perception Index people. It has succeeded despite Kenyans’ willingness to tolerate the ethnicised patronage politics that have polarised the country and pillaged public coffers. The model worked, as long as elites could keep ‘eating’ with a measure of restraint; as long as an invisible line was not crossed to plunge the diversified economy into stagnation and put at risk the critical pillars – the education, security and health systems – that would make it wobble. The wobble is now on. Part of the reason is demographic: there were eight million Kenyans when the Mau

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Mau rebellion ended in 1960 and there are around 46 million today – 475% growth in half a century. In this context, funding the ‘eating’ is expensive and economically deleterious. Public spending is out of control. The public debt has doubled in five years. For the elite, keeping the contradiction from becoming an out-and-out failure of the state has fuelled corruption to an extent unprecedented even for Kenya. Everyone is allowed to ‘eat’ and elements of the elite think everyone can be bribed into a generalised acquiescence around a status quo that even they have not completely defined. Kenya now scores lower than Nigeria on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. And, yes, the comparison matters in deep ways that are essential to how the Kenyan elite defines itself in the African and global context. The connection between security and corruption is important because it takes us back to the kind of state-sanctioned abuses that brought us where we are now. High commissioner Turner, in his speech at the unveiling of the monument, narrated how attempts to redress the system during the state of emergency were robustly resisted and defeated, compounding the pain and suffering visited upon thousands of Kenyans and leading to the eroding of state legitimacy in large swathes of the population. It would not be farfetched to argue that Kenya is not very far from the same today. The centralised control of corruption for political patronage purposes is morally bad but makes for a more predictable policy environment. Even if the policy is that you must bribe to obtain public goods: you know who to bribe, how much and when. The current freefor-all is particularly unsettling to the private sector. They find themselves victims of an old elite stuck in time-worn ways but whose grip is corrupt but strong, chaotic and brittle. The elite tries to mitigate the effects of a liberal constitution voted for in a moment of existential regret, and in which the devolution of power to 47 counties has been utterly transformative. And yet, Kenya is surviving instead of thriving. Our rapacious elite can be held responsible for this unsatisfactory condition. ●

POLITICS

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC With the Central African Republic’s elections originally planned for 18 October, the people will have a long list of candidates to choose from when the vote is eventually held. The electoral authorities have not completed the registration of the country’s 2.1 million voters, and it will be a daunting challenge to organise an election at the tail end of the rainy season in a country with little infrastructure. Many of those running for office have been ministers, government officials and mayors, and quite a few have very familiar surnames. The biggest issue that a new government will face post-election is that large swathes of the country are unsafe because of the presence of armed groups. The new

An unfinished transition government will also struggle to raise funds to address the problems the armed conflict has highlighted. Martin Ziguélé of the Mouvement de Libération du Peuple Centrafricain appears to be among the election frontrunners. A Catholic and former prime minister from the north-west, he is campaigning on a platform of peace and national reconciliation. Michel Amine, in his 40s, is a relative youngster who is campaigning on agricultural issues. Among the familiar names are former president François Bozizé, whose 20032013 reign was catastrophic. However, he does have the reasonably well-organised Kwa Na Kwa party to back him up. Others include Désiré Bilal Nzanga Kolingba, the son of

ex-president André Kolingba; JeanSerge Bokassa, son of the late president/emperor; and Sylvain Patassé, the son of Ange-Félix, who steered his country into a regional war when he brought Congolese rebel leader JeanPierre Bemba to fight on his side.

Elections

our FrancophoneAfrican countries wereset to go to the polls in October. By the time of going to press one election (Burkina Faso) looked likely to be postponed by about a month, and another (Central African Republic) for several months, leaving just two (Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea) tipped to produce a near-certain winner. The two countries that will still vote in October have much in common: Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire both emerged from a long periodof one-man rule that began at independence and lasted for decades, begrudgingly adopted multiparty systems and entered periods of political turmoil. In Guinea, violently repressed street protests and the death of the autocrat Lansana Conté in 2008 led into the one-year rule of a murderous junta, a transition and finally the country’s first democratic elections. The man who is likely to win his second term in office, President Alpha Condé, was the winner. Côte d’Ivoire came out of its political turmoil only when an international force put an end to a bloody political crisis in April 2011 and installed Alassane Ouattara, winner of the 2010 presidential elections and likely winner of this year’s poll. FPI, thinks the party should move on; Burkina Faso’s political another group sees transition ended in Gbagbo as their only leader brutal fashion CELESTIN DIOMANDE/VISUAL PRESS AGENCY

CÔTE D’IVOIRE

Winning ways for Ouattara

The 25 October election is set to be a shoe-in for the incumbent, Alassane Ouattara. This is in part due to the strength of his Rassemblement des Républicains party and his alliance with octogenarian Henri Konan Bédié, the leader of the Parti Démocratique de la Côte d’Ivoire, which used to dominate Ivorian politics. Ouattara can also point to impressive economic growth and major infrastructure works, such as Abidjan’s third bridge over the lagoon. The other reason for Ouattara’s strength is the weakness of the opposition, most notably the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI), the party of former president Laurent Gbagbo, who is now held at the International Criminal Court on charges related to the post-electoral crisis of 2010-2011. The FPI has split into factions along the fault line of whether the party should participate without its historical leader. Pascal Affi N’Guessan, the leader of the government-recognised

and is set to decide on a boycott. A new opposition umbrella group made up of dissidents from the major parties, the Coalition Nationale pour le Changement, has yet to choose its candidate or prove its grassroots mettle. Ouattara’s rivals say that economic growth is seen in statistics but not people’s livelihoods, and that his government is not serious about putting his own supporters on trial for their roles in the 2010-2011 violence. Pre-election protests and violence suggested that postconflict tensions have not been banished. THE AFRICA REPORT

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THEO RENAUT/AP/SIPA

round-up

Boo for the coup

on 17 September 2015, when General Gilbert BURKINA FASO Diendéré temporarily put an end to the Burkinabès’ democratic aspirations with a wildly The 17 September coup by General Gilbert Diendéré disrupted the unpopular coup. The coup was reversed and political transition that was due to lead to national elections on elections are now due before the end of November. 11 October. It was met by popular disapproval and the swift intervention Extreme violence is overshadowing political of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). life in the CAR, where the Seleka and Anti-balaka Transitional president Michel Kafando was back in power rebels laid waste to the country. There is a transon 23 September, but he is still facing several unresolved issues. Before the coup, the transitional government had tried to dissolve ition going on that should, in theory, end in Octothe Diendéré-led Régiment de Sécurité Présidentielle (RSP), which is seen ber but there is so little in place that November, or as still loyal to deposed president Blaise Compaoré. The fate of the RSP even December, is more likely. France,theformercoloniser,isstillheavilypresent is still uncertain and the ECOWAS deal contained a provision of amnesty in these countries. It has soldiers in Côte d’Ivoire, for Diendéré. Elections are due to be held by 22 November, but the RSP CAR and Burkina Faso, business interests and clear and Diendéré could again try to play a spoiler’s role. It is unlikely that any personal and political ties in all four. Avowedly of Compaoré’s loyalists could win fair poll, but the transitional government it has no opinion on which candidates it would had banned people associated with the former ruling party’s attempts like to see elected. to change the constitution from running – another sore point with Diendéré. None of these elections are likely to change The constitutional council approved 14 presidential candidates on the fundamentals. All of the countries are 10 September. Prior to the coup, the favourites appeared to be former highly resource-dependent, even though prime minister Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the Mouvement du Peuple pour Côted’Ivoire’seconomystandsoutasthe le Progrès and opposition leader Zéphirin Diabré of the Union pour le Progrès most sophisticated. All have extreme et le Changement (UPC). Whenever the campaign takes place, the unfinished differences between the haves and business of the transitional government – reforming the government, the military the have-nots, and all four leadand the economy – will dominate the debate. ers ignore their economic, social and demographic challenges at their peril. ● GUINEA

Condé carries on

The 11 October election will almost be a repeat of the one that got the incumbent, President Alpha Condé, elected in 2010. The only difference is that Condé will now take on two political adversaries: Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Touré are no longer in an alliance. This should stand Condé in good stead. Neither Diallo nor Touré can individually beat Condé and his large RPG Arc-enTHE AFRICA REPORT

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Ciel coalition. Moreover, Diallo has been weakened since he allied himself with former junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara, whose men killed many of Diallo’s supporters in the September 2009 massacre in Conakry. Electoral support in Guinea is largely regional. Haute-Guinée and Guinée Forestière tend to vote for Condé, Moyenne-Guinée for Diallo and Guinée

Maritime for Touré. Conakry is where the election is likely to be won or lost. The opposition was still brandishing the threat of a boycott in early September over its call for electoral reform. The challenge for Condé will be to ensure tangible improvements in peoples’ lives for his second term. Bram Posthumus in Bangui and Ouagadougou

POLITICS

ANALYSIS

ALGERIA

Toufik tamed The downfall of a powerful security chief heralds generational change

nd then there was one. Three men dominated in the Algeria that emerged from the 1990s conflict between a directionless state and radical Islam: President Abdelaziz Bouteflika; the longstanding secretary-general of the presidency, Larbi Belkheir; and the man who presided over the pervasive Département du Renseignement et de la Sécurité (DRS) military intelligence service for 24 years, Lieutenant General Mohamed Mediène. Belkheir died in 2010. The dismissal on 13 September of the DRS head, most often known by his nom de guerre, ‘Toufik’, leaves only an ailing Bouteflika in place. In the power vacuum that remains, Algeria’s chattering classes are speaking openly about the fall of a generation of ‘untouchables’. A power balance that has functioned so well for ‘le pouvoir’ – the sometimes competing factions within the small elite of military and security leaders and their political and business allies who dominate decision-making – is out of kilter. The critical question for Algeria is: does the dismissal of the security chief who was both so familiar and so unknown mark a historic watershed in the transition to more open governance? Analyst Geoff Porter asked on Twitter: “Does Mediène’s departure contribute to a much needed generational change in Algeria?” He answered his own question with a “yes” – but “no” to the followup: “Does Mediène’s departure signal the systemic change that Algeria desperately needs?” Mediène was replaced by a controversial general, Athmane ‘Bachir’ Tartag, who was last year moved from being Toufik’s apparent successor on security to be appointed presidential adviser on security. In the opaque world of Algerian Shadowy yet omnipresent: the departure of the security chief Mohamed ‘Toufik’ Médiène leaves a vacuum in ‘le pouvoir’

politics, Toufik has long been seen to be in conflict with the ‘presidential clan’, whose most prominent member is Bouteflika’s influential brother Saïd. Saïd has built up a complex network of business, political and military relationships, from high-profile oligarch Ali Haddad to a clique of senior officers. His elder brother has fostered hopes of an eventual succession, but a wide spectrum of people have opposed this possibility. There had been signs for several months that Mediène was on his way out, especially following a still unexplained series of explosions reported on 16 July near the president’s seaside residence at Zéralda. Government flacks brushed off the incident, which was followed by an immediate security blanket around the Algérois resort, but the heads of senior security officials have rolled in the following months. If Algeria is to enact genuine systemic change, it is unlikely a security chief will ever wield the power exerted by Toufik – whose legendary files were said to contain incendiary information about decades of activity of the ruling elite. But to have this sort of transition towards more open and responsive government will require the emergence of a politician able to replace Bouteflika. No civilian politician has come close to radiating the ruling legitimacy and leadership charisma of Bouteflika – who, for all his faults and infirmities, is a North African zaïm (charismatic leader). Bouteflika took power after long negotiations with le pouvoir, led by Belkheir, and established a zone of influence for civilian politics in a political system dominated by the military since the coup mounted by Houari Boumédiène in 1965. These are big shoes to fill that leading civilian politicians – including potential successors such as prime minister Abdelmalek Sellal, industry minister Abdeslam Bouchouareb and former prime minister Ahmed Ouyahia – have yet to show they can fill. With Toufik out of the way, a project favoured by the presidency to revise the constitution may return. Under the model previously proposed by Bouteflika, Algeria would gain a vice-president who would take over were the president to become incapacitated. This has been blocked for several years by controversy, not over the ● ● ● SAAD/EL WATAN

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constitutional niceties but over Bouteflika’s ambitions to have Saïd take the role. As ever in Algiers, the personal politics seem to trump even the most elegantly wrought institutional reform, and that has yet to change, even with Toufik’s dirty washing being displayed in public. ●

●●●

Jon Marks

Lungu’s loyalty to ministers who helped him win the election is being tested

CHINE NOUVELLE/SIPA

ZAMBIA

Lungu’s labours The president is battling economic challenges and troublesome allies

ambia’s President Edgar Lungu’s focus on reorganising the ruling party is unsettling some of its members, especially those seen to be close allies of late President Michael Sata. Under Sata the governing Patriotic Front (PF) was very leftist, but now Lungu is trying to be more supportive of business. Lungu also forged an alliance with the opposition Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) in the presidential by-election in January, angering some PF supporters. Sources in the cabinet say that foreign affairs minister Harry Kalaba, information minister Chishimba Kambwili, energy and mines minister Christopher Yaluma and gender minister Nkandu Luo are all seen as ‘not-so allies’ who could be sacked. Kambwili, who challenged Lungu to succeed Sata, is particularly upset that Sata critics like former information minister Dora Siliya, current education minister Michael Kaingu and sports minister Vincent Mwale have become influential since Sata’s death in October 2014. Kambwili vehemently opposed Siliya’s joining of the PF in May. Siliya was a controversial member of the inner circle of former president and MMD leader Rupiah Banda. She had previously argued that Sata’s three-year rule was worse than the recent xenophobic attacks in South Africa. The arrival of Lungu’s new allies has irked PF members. “If Dora can insult Mr Sata today, what will stop her from insulting President Lungu when he is out of office tomorrow? Personally, I have not welcomed her until she apologises publicly,” Kambwili said in May.

Lungu has also sidelined former vice-president Guy Scott. Scott had denied Lungu access to state resources prior to the 20 January elections because the constitution states that only the president and vice-president are entitled to state resources during electoral campaigns. Lungu’s backers say the decision almost cost him the election. Besides balancing allies old and new, President Lungu has been focused on addressing Zambia’s economic problems. The price of copper, Zambia’s main export, has been falling this year, as have the economic prospects of its main export market, China. On 1 July, the Zambian government reversed the taxation reforms introduced earlier in the year that removed the corporate tax for miners and increased the mineral royalty to 20% for open cast mines and 8% for underground mines. After companies launched a strong lobby to reduce the royalties, the government reintroduced corporate tax and decreased royalties to 6% for underground mines and 9% for open cast mines. Despite this concession, mining companies say they have been hurt by the government’s failure to resolve a dispute over value-added-tax refunds that amount to about $600m. The February appointment of central bank governor Denny Kalyalya, who introduced stringent monetary policy instruments not seen in Zambia in recent times, failed to stem the fall of the kwacha. The local currency depreciated by more than 34% this year, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Africa this year. The collapse of the kwacha is due to the appreciating US dollar, the weakening Chinese economy, an acute shortage of power blamed on mismanagement of state-owned power utility ZESCO and low rainfall last season. Lungu is unlikely to sack finance minister Alexander Chikwanda despite his inability to help the weaking economy. Chikwanda, a one-time ally of Sata, was very instrumental in Lungu’s election as PF president and paid his nomination fee. Under Chikwanda, 77, the government has overspent on road projects and bloated maize subsidies. With less money in the government coffers, Lungu is facing strong headwinds as he looks for solutions to the economic slowdown and the fighting between his old and new allies. ● Christopher Mwambazi in Lusaka

TUNISIA

Pay-back time The crimes of the old regime still weigh heavily on a nation rebuilding itself

he government of President Béji Caïd Essebsi is preparing to turn the page on the idea of bringing people to justice who committed financial crimes under the regime of President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. Essebsi is not casting the government’s economic and financial reconciliation bill – announced in a speech on 20 March and debated in the interministerial council in July – as a pardon for political and business barons who committed fraud, but as a means to attract investment, improve the business environment and restart the economy. The political opposition and civil society groups are rallying against the move and held protests in early September. The THE AFRICA REPORT

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Congrès pour la République and the Front Populaire argue that the economic reconciliation bill goes against everything that the 2011 revolution stood for, but they do not appear to have the strength to stop the government. The angriest critics say that the bill is an attempt to weaken the Instance Vérité et Dignité (IVD) a transitional justice body headed by Sihem Bensedrine, an ally of former President Moncef Marzouki. The bill’s defenders point out that it is constitutional and more restrictive than the IVD’s legal framework. Mohsen Marzouk, the secretary general of the governing Nidaa Tounes party, explains that the government will make some tweaks to the bill, saying it will “include notions of peace and the development of disadvantaged regions in order to highlight the content and real goal of this law”. The bill concerns businessmen whose activities harmed the state, and former state officials and leaders of parastatals who closed their eyes on cases of favouritism or giving undue authorisations. The nearly 600 people that would be affected by the bill will have to pay back all of the damages in addition to

a penalty of 5% per year in which they have gone unpunished, in exchange for the state dropping all charges against them. The state’s goal is to get back as much money as possible and encourage business leaders, some of whom have frozen plans for investment – due to fear of a trial – in a country that desperately needs it. Analysts and economists are unable to offer an estimate of the economic impact that the reconciliation bill will have because it is a voluntary measure. Since the fall of Ben Ali in 2011, several commissions have been launched to deal with the crimes of the previous regime. Since 2011, the courts have embarked on more than 10,000 cases. Business leaders have complained about the speed and quality of justice. The Nidaa Tounes government has listened, but neither Nidaa Tounes, which is in the throes of infighting, nor the business leaders calling for the bill to pass have defended the measure well. In September, the government sacked 110 members of the security services suspected of crimes and other infractions, so progress in that field is only likely to come in fits and starts. ● Frida Dahmani in Tunis

ANANSI Singing songs in Kampala

Cementing ties in Harare THE ARRIVAL OF Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote in Harare is a pebble thrown into the murky Zimbabwean succession drama. The ripples do not look good for whoever might oppose the ruling party in the 2018 election. Anansi read with interest in The Zimbabwe Independent that Dangote – who has a reputation for bankrolling ruling parties in his homeland – contacted powerful vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa via intermediaries to lobby his case with President Robert Mugabe. It is thought that his investments will be exempt from the vagaries of the indigenisation laws that mandate 51% ownership of companies for Zimbabweans. Expect the Mnangagwa-Dangote partnership to thrive. THE AFRICA REPORT

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ANOTHER LONGSTANDING firebrand leader whose rhetoric occasionally falls short of delivery, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni is standing again to represent the ruling party for the fourth time. His claim that only the National Resistance Movement can “banish corruption from Uganda” raised eyebrows. More welcome was the release of a new campaign song to update his modest musical success last election, Mpenkoni. In the event that Ugandans do not want yet another rap from Museveni, there is the option of voting for fallen-from-grace former prime minister Amama Mbabazi, who as yet has not turned his hand to political warblings.

Cutting deals in Paris NIGERIA’S PRESIDENT Muhammadu Buhari is unlikely to cut a record – but he is currently in deal-cutting mode. On the security front, he chose France and President François Hollande as his first port of call in Europe since his election. Hollande’s

Africa policy adviser Hélène Le Gal prepared the September talks alongside Nigeria’s national security adviser, Major General Babagana Monguno, who also met with top French generals and defence minster Jean-Yves Le Drian. The outcome should be a joint defence committee to help coordinate the military response to Boko Haram on a regional basis.

Opening doors in Libreville PRESIDENT ALI BONGO ONDIMBA had hoped to strengthen his chances in the August 2016 elections by poaching a member of the opposition. Prime minister Daniel Ona Ondo announced a new government in early September that included Jean de Dieu Moukagni-Iwangou as agriculture minister. The only problem was that Iwangou, the president of the opposition umbrella group Front de l’Opposition pour l’Alternance, said he was not consulted and thus refused. The outspoken critic said that the political change he wants to see is a government not run by Bongo. ●

COUNTRY FOCUS

STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN/AFP

Democratic Republic of Congo

Kabila remains inscrutable about whether he will step down in 2016

The Kabila legacy J With little more than a year left before President Kabila is due to step down, The Africa Report looks into where he has kept his promises and where they have fallen down. One issue remains unclear: whether he will strengthen Congolese democracy or join the ranks of presidents seeking to stay in power at all costs By Gregory Mthembu-Salter in Kinshasa

THE AFRICA REPORT

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oseph Kabila has been president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for nearly 15 years. This makes the lavishly moustached Kabila the country’s second-longest serving head of state after Mobutu Sese Seko, who was president for 32 years, or third if one counts King Leopold II of Belgium, who was head of the Congo Free State for 23 years. The Belgian government stepped in to take over from Leopold back then, in large part because of the scandals that engulfed his rule. Mobutu’s reign also ended in disgrace, with the president

COUNTRY FOCUS | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Kisangani GABON CONGO KINSHASA

Atlantic Ocean

UGANDA

Goma

RWANDA BURUNDI

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

TANZANIA

Lubumbashi ANGOLA 400 km

ZAMBIA

DRC IN NUMBERS POPULATION

69.36 million1

URBAN POPULATION (% of total)

42%1

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

502

INFANT MORTALITY (per 1,000 births) AID FLOWS

$2.6bn2

FDI, INFLOWS (current US$)

$2.1bn2

GDP (current US$)

$32.96bn1

GDP GROWTH (annual %)

9%1

INDUSTRY, VALUE ADDED (% of GDP)

33.2%1

INFLATION, CONSUMER PRICES (annual %)

1.61

INTERNET USERS (per 100 people)

MOBILE CELLULAR SUBSCRIPTIONS (per 100 people)

531

SOURCES: WORLD BANK 2013&20141, AFRICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 20142

1082

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION 850,000 In barrels 800,000 SOURCE: DRC CENTRAL BANK

750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000

2006 07

MONTHLY COPPER AND COBALT OUTPUT metric tonnes

Copper Cobalt 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

RELATIVE PEACE

Within a year, the war was over and the majority of foreign troops went home. In what must surely count as an achievement for Kabila, most of the country has been at peace most of the time ever since, though in the eastern provinces and Katanga several militia remain active. Some receive foreign backing and there has been continued, though increasingly sporadic, conflict. How much this relative peace can be attributed to Kabila is debatable, not least because the world’s largest United Nations peacekeeping mission, which the body mandated to take on the rebel militia, has been in the DRC throughout his presidency. Additionally, what peace there is in the east is fragile, and the national army remains a very long way from being a unified, professional and effective fighting force. Back in 2001, the economy was in a disastrous state, with no growth, infrastructure broken, rapid inflation and a tanking currency. Soon after assuming office,KabilacalledintheWorldBank,the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and

A report card for the Kabila government so far

GWENN DUBOURTHOUMIEU FOR TAR

CAM.

famed internationally for such extreme corruption that a new term was coined for it – kleptocracy. Mobutu was forced to flee the country in May 1997 in the face of a regional military assault ostensibly led by Kabila’s father, Laurent-Désiré Kabila. How will history judge Joseph Kabila? The president is constitutionally obliged to leave office in December 2016, but the signs are that he may intend hanging on a while longer, courtesy of a murky political strategy of delays, confusion and stalling, known as ‘glissage’ (slippage). Kabila has thus far refused to be drawn publicly on whether he will leave on time or stick around. Instead, he has often said that people should allow him to complete his mandate and to judge him on what he has done instead of speculating about what he might do in the future. In a speech on 30 June commemorating the 55th anniversary of the country’s independence, Kabila proclaimed: “We have preserved national unity, national independence and safeguarded the national integrity of our large and beautiful country.” When Kabila came to power, after the assassination of his father in January 2001, the DRC was engulfed in a war that had split the country in three and dragged in almost all its neighbouring states. Kabila, unlike his father, understood the risks and sued for peace.

EDUCATION AND HEALTH State education provision remains abysmal. Hospitals and clinics remain in a state of permanent crisis and the sector receives little attention from government.

GWENN DUBOURTHOUMIEU FOR TAR

SOUTH SUDAN

CAR

SOURCE: DRC CENTRAL BANK

C+

INFRASTRUCTURE Kabila promised infrastructure, and infrastructure there has been, largely built by Chinese state-owned companies backed by Chinese loans. Most of the country’s infrastructure remains in poor shape.

Western donors. The initial results of his reforms, at least, were impressive. Inflation and the value of the Congolese franc stabilised, and new investment flowed into the mining, telecommunications, construction and infrastructure sectors. According to John Kanyoni, the vice-president of the country’s chamber of mines: “These were courageous reforms, and they yielded good results. Our money has stabilised, and our economy has grown. The key challenge is to diversify our economy, since our growth is still too based on mining.” The IMF suspended lending to Kabila’s government in 2012 over governance

2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 THE AFRICA REPORT

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GWENN DUBOURTHOUMIEU FOR TAR

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO | COUNTRY FOCUS

SECURITY (Kivus, D minus). Most of the country is peaceful much of the time, though there are still militia active and there could be more if Kabila remains in office.

concerns, and the World Bank has a much-reduced presence. Instead, there has been a strong tilt towards China, whose state-owned companies have built nearly all the new infrastructure that has sprung up in the country over the past decade. The country’s real gross domestic product growth was an impressive 9% in 2014 and is indeed forecast to top 10% this year, making it one of the highest not only in Africa but the world. In 2014, the DRC was the biggest copper producer in Africa, beating its neighbour Zambia for the first time in decades. Industrial gold production is rising too (see page THE AFRICA REPORT

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COLIN DELFOSSE/OUT OF FOCUS/PICTURETANK

WATER AND ELECTRICITY The country’s water and electricity utilities remain in a dysfunctional state, but some mining companies have boosted power output and there has been some long-overdue maintenance at the Inga Dam.

EMPLOYMENT No significant uptick in formal employment for years and little prospect of one.

50), but agricultural production remains critically weak. Kabila wants to remedy this with state-owned mega-farms, a handful of which have started operating near Kinshasa and in the east. It remains to be seen, however, whether this can again become a viable, truly profitable and effective way to farm or whether the money would be better spent assisting existing smaller-scale agriculture. There are no reliable statistics, but it is evident that unemployment and poverty have remained sky high. In Kinshasa townships like Limete, Matonge and Bandalungwa, the streets bustle till all hours with people looking for oppor-

tunities: hawkers, stall holders, porters, taxi touts, mechanics, hairdressers, musicians, gangsters and thieves. The big economic questions for Kabila are whether the country’s impressive macroeconomic numbers are translating into broad-based improved well-being. Certainly, currency stability has helped. Congolese no longer worry as they used to whether their hard-earned cash would be worthless the next morning. But the lived experience for millions remains one of poverty, weak-to-non-existent state social service provision and harassment from government agents. FUNDAMENTAL NEEDS

According to opposition leader Vital Kamerhe: “The priority is to still to meet the fundamental needs of the population – access to food, work and healthcare.” The government is set to miss most of the Millennium Development Goals, which come to an end in 2015, but it reports that it has made the most progress in fields like infant vaccination and the primary school enrolment rate. The DRC receives a level of scrutiny from investigative journalists and non-governmental organisations not often afforded to its neighbours. As a result, at least some of the financial dealings that apparently sustain its political system have been laid bare. Bloomberg news agency and the London-based lobbygroupGlobalWitnesshaveexposed numerous deals in which rich mining assets belonging to state-owned companies have been sold cheaply, more often than not to Israeli tycoon Dan Gertler, and then sold on for a vast profit. Following a comparatively liberal phase during the previous decade, Kabila’s stance towards the popular expression of political opposition has hardened. New York-based lobby group Human Rights Watch reported in July: “In recent months, Congolese security and intelligence officials have clamped down on peaceful activists, political leaders, and others who oppose attempts to allow […] Kabila to stay in power.” Viewed globally, these elements make for a distinctly spotted Kabila legacy. Yet, in a region where many presidents are pulling out the creative stops to evade term limits and stay in office, were Kabila to leave quietly and on time the multiple concerns and criticisms that currently surround his rule could be eclipsed and he might still secure a glowing reputation as an African democrat. ●

COUNTRY FOCUS | DRC

INTERVIEW

Mark Bristow Chief executive, Randgold Resources

The landlord never chases away those who pay the rent

JASON ALDEN/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

Bristow’s opposition to changes in the mining code that could discourage investment appears to have paid off. Now the head of the London- and NASDAQlisted miner is looking for new opportunities in the country

frica-focused gold miner Randgold Resources and its joint venture partner AngloGold Ashanti are at the forefront of the rapid growth of the DRC’s industrial gold production. Production at the flagship Kibali joint-venture mine in north-eastern DRC began in late 2013. Kibali is set to produce at a cost of $563/oz this year, making it a competitive producer in times of unsteady gold prices (see page 52). While Randgold and its partners are expanding mine infrastructure and building electricity generation plants, chief executive Mark Bristow is on the lookout for new opportunities. In February, he announced that Randgold had made an offer to become the majority shareholder in the neighbouring Moku-Beverendi project, which is owned by Israeli magnate Dan Gertler. There have been no announcements about that proposed deal since then, but Bristow tells The Africa Report a new investment is imminent. When the DRC government announced its plans to revise the mining code to increase the government stake in projects and

raise royalties, Bristow was a vocal opponent of the reforms. He argues that with the downturn in commodity prices the proposed mining code would discourage investment. The government went backtorethink itsplansandhasyet to unveil its final proposals, which are likely to include more modest proposals than the initial drafts.

“The DRC is very dynamic country. If you stand up and engage you can get results” TAR: Is production on track at Kibali this year? MARK BRIST OW: We are ahead of schedule for our targeted 600,000oz for the year and our costs are well contained. We reached the bottom of our shaft for the underground mine 78 days ahead of schedule. Our first hydroelectric plant has been operational for a while, and we are on track for the second one. We have started work on a third. You have often said you did not come to the DRC to build one mine. When will we hear about new acquisitions?

We are only interested in assets in the same part of the country as we are – the north-east. We are engaging on this with state-owned mining companies and juniors that have run out of money, and we should have something sewn up by the end of the quarter. We hope to announce by the end of the year, though it is always tricky in the DRC to commit on timetables. Your mine used to be in Orientale Province. Now, thanks to decentralisation, you are in the new province of Haut-Uele. Has it made any difference? The new provincial authorities are battling to follow through on this process, but they have definitely realised how important we are to their plans. We are pretty comfortable with decentralisation because the new capital, Isiro, is much closer to our operations than the old provincial capital of Kisangani. It will reduce the demands on us from Kisangani, from Ituri – all these other places. You have been in the forefront of the fight by the Congolese chamber of mines to block ● ● ●

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COUNTRY FOCUS | DRC

several major proposed elements of a new mining code. Is the battle won? I think with the fall in commodity prices, everyone has taken a reality pill and is more focused on the important issues. The minister had tried to railroad the changes through but we made a strong case that it would put the gains that have been made over the past 10 years or so at risk. The great thing with this country is that it is very dynamic. And if you are prepared to stand up and engage, you can get results. ●●●

Elections are coming next year, or maybe not. Either way, a period of turbulence is coming. Are you ready? Definitely. We are entering a dynamic period. But compared to what? We operate in Mali, Côte d’Ivoire – that’s our business. We work with the duly elected government of the day. And in my experience, the landlord never chases away someone who is paying the rent. It is a long time since the DRC was known as an industrial gold producer. It is famed for copper and cobalt mining. Should investors be shifting their focus back to Congolese gold? The thing that has always amazed me with the copper players in this country and in Zambia is that they could invest such large sums of money in mines without investing equally in power. Now no one has enough electricity. We had to wrestle our way through this issue and so will they. It is as hard as ever to predict what will happen to the gold price. Where do you think producers need to be on the cost curve to survive? I think you need to be able to sustain yourself on $1,200/oz – and not many do. Our costs are way below that, so we aren’t too worried. But there’s an oversupply of gold to the market, and you will see a massive contraction. In fact, the contraction has already started in South Africa, which is leading the way on both this and job destruction. ● Interview by Gregory Mthembu-Salter

SIMON DAWSON/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

GOLD

Mining gold in troubled times Despite price turmoil, the DRC’s low-cost producers are going ahead with projects to boost production

ineral commodity prices have all fallen this year, and gold is no exception. But because gold, unlike other minerals, is perceived as a safe haven when other assets are going belly up, its price has not performed in quite the same way. The average price of copper during the first half of 2015 was 15% lower than a year earlier and the metal has kept falling since, hitting a six-year low of $5,000/tn in August. The gold price kicked off the year, meanwhile, at $1,184/oz, peaked 3.4% higher in midMay, bottomed out 9% lower in late July when rumours of an interest-rate hike at the US Federal Reserve were at their loudest, and has since then climbed gently upwards, in part due to panic induced by a meltdown in Chinese stocks. At the end of August, the gold price was $1,134/oz – more or less where it was when the year began. Recorded gold production in the DRC during the first six months of 2015 was 26.2tn, 57% higher than during the first six months of 2014 – a testament to rising output at the country’s two industrial mines. Unrecorded, smuggled gold production, meanwhile, which is largely artisanal, probably reached 7-10tn over the same period. Randgold Resources operates the Kibali gold mine in a remote part of north-east DRC, in the newly established province of Haut-Uele. The mine produced 328,647 ounces of gold during the first half of 2015, more than half its 600,000-ounce target for the year, at an

average cost of just US$582/oz. This has kept profits healthy – the company recorded a $93m profit from Kibali during the first half of 2015, up sharply from the $61.6m profit recorded during the first half of 2014. The company boasts, too, that it is well on track to commence underground mining next year. STOCK MARKET WOES

The only other industrial gold miner active in the country at present is Toronto Stock Exchange-listed Banro Corporation, which operates the Twangiza mine in South Kivu and – very soon, the company claims – the Namoya mine in Maniema. Gold production at Twangiza was 70,268 ounces during the first half of 2015, significantly higher than the 41,568 ounces realised during the same period in 2014, a year that was blighted by multiple, expensive technical hitches, while the company’s production cost fell from $794 to a much better $643/oz. Banro is still incurring significant costs to get Namoya going, and the company has reported that it is losing money. The impact can be seen on the Banro share price, which was just $0.18/ share in September. Despite its much stronger numbers, Randgold’s share price has suffered too this year, falling from $85.46/share in early January to just $58.52/share in early September. So bearish is investor sentiment towards commodities right now, it seems, that everyone is getting hammered. ● Gregory Mthembu-Salter in Kinshasa THE AFRICA REPORT

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COUNTRY FOCUS | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

FINANCE

Banking on the little guy Payroll reform for public sector workers has produced an additional 1.2m accounts. Now banks are looking at viable ways to offer their new customers credit

bank cards delivered. Now, he says, ith most banks focused on dealing with the government there are 1.5 million people who want and a few select corporates, access to credit: “But this is a challenge for the banks. Most of our deposits are some are rethinking their strategies short term and can disappear in an and tentatively offering new products instant. It is risky funding long-term aimed at ordinary people and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). loans with deposits like that. We still Rawbank, the country’s largest bank lack a savings culture.” by assets, is providing loans Still, Rawbank, which to civil servants and has received a stable ratdeveloped the DRC’s first ing from ratings agency mortgage product. SimMoody’s last year, now of people in the ilar products are on their offers salaried state emway from the other big hitployees a credit packDRC do not have ters, including the Banque age branded the ‘Léoa bank account Commerciale du Congo, pard’, entitling them to Banque Internationale borrow up to four times pour l’Afrique au Congo their monthly salary, reand Trust Merchant Bank. payable over 15 months. The financial sector And in March 2015, Shelhas come a long way in ter Afrique, a pan-African the DRC during Presidfinance institution focused on supporting afent Joseph Kabila’s 14fordable housing, extended an eightyear reign, but with more than 95% of year, $10.6m line of credit to Rawbank, the population still without bank accounts, compared to a continental averenabling the bank to launch the counage of 76%, the country remains one of try’s first mortgage product. the least banked in Africa. One reform As in most of the continent, there are boosting financial intermediation is a large number of small businesses in bancarisation, a policy introduced by DRC, the vast majority of which operate prime minister Augustin Matata Ponyo in the informal economy. Most of the in 2011. Under bancarisation, all security forces’ and civil servants’ salaries are paid into bank accounts and not in cash. The change has made embezzlement of salaries by greedy senior managers and commanding officers much harder and has led to a tripling in the number of bank accounts to 1.8m, even though the majority of people apparently withdraw most or all their salaries in cash from their accounts soon after pay day. SOURCE: IVERI

95%

SMEs engage in trade, a small number offer other services and a tiny minority are in manufacturing. Such SMEs typically lack accounts and ledgers, and a major challenge for banks looking to lend to them is working out the size of their assets in order to assess risk. Working with the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, specially trained Rawbank staff are using an innovative microfinancing model to work out the wealth of potential clients. Rawji explains how the bank has allocated $1.5m to a pilot project. This is not much compared to Rawbank’s $1bn total balance sheet, but it is a start, he says: “Our staff have learned to value all the assets of our clients so we can assess their total real wealth and create their financial statements, usually for the first time. We are giving out loans averaging $30,000 to 50 businesses a month.” Rawbank’s total SME portfolio is worth $30m, all backed, says the bank, by tangible guarantees. The sum is a significant increase on the $2-3m Rawbank had allocated to SMEs just five years ago and is a sign of things to come from the Congolese banking sector. ● Gregory Mthembu-Salter in Kinshasa Rawbank is opening new branches to accommodate its growing customer base

LEOPARD LOANS

All these new bank accounts have encouraged the country’s more innovative banks to consider how to give the people who hold them access to credit. Mustafa Rawji is a senior corporate officer at Rawbank, which has an 18% share of the market. He points to the extra 200,000 bank accounts opened since the bancarisation programme began, with new branches, cash machines and

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COUNTRY FOCUS | DRC

TELECOMS

LTE for the DRC Smile Telecoms is developing a fast mobile broadband network

he crowded telecoms sector is to get some fresh blood with the announcement in September that Mauritiusbased Smile Telecoms is to enter the market in early 2016. The firm secured some $365m in investment capital through debt and equity financing and plans to roll out a 4G LTE mobile broadband network across the country as well as boost its existing services in Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda. “Deploying a high-speed, ultra-fast and reliable internet in the country will help companies and people to become more productive and efficient, and this is in itself an element of economic development,” says Paul Kasseyet, president of Smile Telecoms in the DRC. Smile plans to begin operations of its LTE network in the DRC in early 2016. LTE (Long-Term Evolution) is a fourth-generation wireless internet technology that provides internet speeds up to 10 times faster than those offered by 3G networks. It provides high-quality voice, data and video streaming. Download speeds can peak at up to 1GB per second. To raise the funds, Smile sold a $50m equity stake to South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation, a state-run group managing a R1.6trn ($116bn) investment pot, and borrowed from a group of investors including the African Export-Import Bank and Standard Chartered Bank. The move will throw the company, which is majority owned by the Saudi group AlNahla, into the fiercely competitive DRC communications sector, pitting it against MTN, Airtel, Telefonica and Orange. Cyprus-based Yozma Timeturns became the country’s sixth mobile operator when it launched its network in November of last year. Since its foundation in 2007, Smile Telecoms has raised more than $600m in investment and says it is seeking to target some 300 million customers across Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and the DRC. In the DRC, internet penetration rates are around 2.5%, but the rise of low-cost smartphones is confirming the key role of data instead of voice in future revenue growth for telecoms firms. The penetration rate for mobile phones hit 49% in the first trimester of this year but the average revenue per user per month was just $2.5. ●

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AVIATION

Troubled skies The government’s plans to launch the national airline Congo Airways ran into some unexpected turbulence when an Airbus A320, which was in Dublin being painted in the new airline’s colours, was grounded in connection with a long-running dispute between the DRC government and a mining company. On 24 August, Ireland’s High Court grounded the airline as part of a compensation row dating back to 1997 involving a military takeover of a diamond mine in Tshikapa in the south-west of the country. A 2007 ruling by the US district court in the District of Columbia found that $11.6m was still outstanding. Congo Airways, which is due to launch operations later this year, bought two A320 airliners from troubled Italian airline Alitalia for $50m. The first aircraft was delivered to N’Djili international airport in Kinshasa in July. Claims by Congolese officials that the court later lifted the restrictions could not be confirmed. ●

MINING

Applying pressure The government is taking a more aggressive stance with investors as it revises its draft mining code to improve its revenue from the sector. It approved the sale by Canadian miner Ivanhoe of a 49.5% stake in the Kamoa copper project to Chinese group Zijin Mining in September, but only after the Vancouver-based firm agreed to increase the government’s share in local operating company Kamoa Copper from 5% to 20%. The sale was first announced in May but it was blocked by Kinshasa, which ordered a review of the company’s ownership. Zijin Mining has now agreed to buy its stake for $412m, while an additional 1% will be sold to Crystal River Global for $8.3m. Ivanhoe’s share price jumped 15% following the news that the deal had received the green light. A feasibility study of the mine is due to be carried out in late 2016, and initial investigations suggest that the area could be the world’s largest untouched high-grade copper site. ● THE AFRICA REPORT

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DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO | COUNTRY FOCUS

INTERVIEW

Jean-Pierre Bokondji a.k.a. Jupiter Lead singer and guitarist, Jupiter & Okwess International

I’ve had many lives

politically engaged musician who takes inspiration from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s some 450 different ethnic groups, JeanPierre Bokondji, a.k.a Jupiter, does not have much hope for his generation but is fighting for the next one. “For us, we’re already screwed. We are a sacrificed generation: our parents mismanaged the country after independence. Things are only starting to pick up now,” Jupiter says. He has great hopes for the future: “The situation is changing. We are no longer in the era of slavery or colonisers, nor are we in an independent era. We are already in the global era with the advent of the internet. I think future generations can benefit from the riches of Congo and our mission is to lay the foundation for them. For example, with my world tour, Congolese artists will be noticed and I hope that producers will come searching for them!” Earphones in the ears and a guitar in hand, Jupiter is usually surrounded by music. But his goal is not music for music’s sake. “My role is to change

attitudes through my music. Of course, I’m concerned about my country! The only thing is that each one has his way of going about things. I might be a member of parliament one day. Who knows?” he says. CURIOUS IN KINSHASA

Born in 1963, Jupiter has tried many things in his life. “At the time of Mobutu, I was involved in the Condor political movement. Mobutu spoke then of democracy. I was even the private secretary of one of his ministers. I’ve had many lives. I’m a curious man.” That curiosity led him to explore his country’s culture, but he says that he did not have to leave the country’s capital city in order learn something from the country’s many ethnic groups.

FLORENT DE LA TULLAYE/BELLE KINOISE PROD

Ministerial private secretary, funeral musician, international pop star and the subject of a documentary, Jupiter’s orbit continues as he promotes Congolese culture to the world

“You know, Congo has more than 450 ethnic groups, and they can all be found in Kinshasa! When I was performing during funeral ceremonies, I was able to take a trip around Congo just through the capital city. That is how I came into contact with traditional music,” he explains. While some other musicians have left the instability of Kinshasa for a life in Europe, Jupiter says that he wants to stay in Kinshasa. He lived in Europe with his father when he was younger, but “I saw the situation of Congolese people there and I didn’t want to find myself in their shoes. I preferred to stay in Kinshasa. We have an immense and untapped cultural wealth! My goal is to share my experience with future generations. I work with small groups who are learning from my career. I advise them to draw inspiration from their ethnic cultures as I did from mine, the Mongo tribe. It’s so vast!” Jupiter and the band have performedacrossEuropewiththeBritpop band Blur. Damon Albarn, leader of the group, spotted Jupiter & Okwess International during one of his Africa Express events. Jupiter’s raspy voice featured in RenaudBarretand Florent de La Tullaye’s 2006 documentary film La Danse deJupiter,which also shone a spotlightonthebandStaff BendaBilili,anotherCongolesemusicphenomenon. “My collaboration with Damon Albarn is not new,” he explains. “We met around 2007 in Kinshasa, and we immediately felt a connection. Back then, I had no idea who he was. We shared our views on music and it was only later that I found out that it was Damon and Blur! He’s now a friend and he’s always given me opportunities which have helped me tour Europe and the world.” Albarn is producing the band’s new album, which is set for release before the end of this year. ● Claire Rainfroy

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PUBLI-INFORMATION

Your number one partner in DR Congo

s the largest bank by total assets, deposits, loans and equity, RAWBANK is number one in Democratic Republic of Congo. In 2014, RAWBANK secured half of the increased national deposits registered by all of the the country’s banks. From this strong market base, RAWBANK is now preparing to take on the new challenge of being not only the biggest but “the best bank in DRC”, for the benefit of all stakeholders. Its determined strategy for progress sets out four clearly defined objectives: maintaining financial fundamentals, delivering maximum profitability, controlling risks and developing expertise and skills. This three-year programme was implemented in 2013 under the “Avantage Client” label. RAWBANK plans to expand its already extensive network to 80 branches and outlets across the country by the end of 2016. At the same time RAWBANK is shoring up all its divisions, Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) for large companies, Commercial Banking for smaller businesses, as well as Retail Banking and Private Banking, offering highly innovative investments. With RAWBANK as your partner as you develop your business in Democratic Republic of Congo, you have the support of a bank that is solid and efficient, knows the terrain, is part of the local economic fabric and whose international credibility is unquestionable.

www.rawbank.cd

A LOCAL LEADER AT YOUR SERVICE INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING MOODY’S RATING

In July 2014, RAWBANK became the first bank in DR Congo and Central Africa to be rated by Moody’s Investors Services. The international agency assigned it a B3 rating, the maximum score for a bank in this country, which itself carries a B3 sovereign rating. RAWBANK’s rating was confirmed early in 2015, with the mention “stable outlook”.

Closely plugged into the country’s economic momentum, RAWBANK is involved in the financing of major infrastructure projects. In particular, RAWBANK was key to the new airport facilities (runways, control tower and terminal building) at Ndjili International Airport in Kinshasa, which began operating in June 2015.

KEY FIGURES (2014)

+ 31 % Growth of total assets

+ 24 % Increase in deposits

+ 18 %

+ 39 % Volume of Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) customer transactions

+ 29 % Increase in CIB customer deposits

increase in number of bank accounts

OVERALL SME AND SMI STRATEGY With a dedicated team in place and a range of specific products and services, RAWBANK is constantly reaffirming its SME and SMI reach, with the support of partners such as the IFC. It developed an original approach for the smallest of these, by partnering with Proparco and the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management to provide expertise and better understand their needs.

INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS RAWBANK has developed important sustainable partnerships with leading financial institutions to boost its business financing capacity. Among these are the IFC, a World Bank subsidiary, the French Development Agency (AFD), its private sector investment subsidiary Proparco, and the European Investment Bank (EIB). In 2014, new partnerships were signed with the IFC for granting loans to DRC’s SME’s and SMIs, and with Shelter Afrique, for home loans.

“LADY’S FIRST” In 2010, RAWBANK developed an innovative programme aimed specifically at supporting lending to DR Congo’s women entrepreneurs, called “Lady’s First”. The agreement signed with World Bank subsidiary IFC, has strengthened the bank’s capacity to service this rapidly growing customer base.

DIFCOM/FC - Photos : DR

RAWBANK (Kinshasa headquarter) Boulevard du 30 Juin, 3487 Kinshasa Gombe Democratic Republic of Congo

BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA

Low-cost

learning The country is host to a growing number of private schools that are competing to deliver quality education and using innovative teaching and management techniques to attract more students out of the troubled state schooling sector

By Gillian Parker in Johannesburg

eriq and his classmates work through their online exercises on Chromebook computers at the SPARK primary school in Bramley, a suburb of Johannesburg. Leriq’s screen shows a hippo posing a mathematical question requiring him to add up dots. The hippo gobbles them up, and Lariq punches the air in jubilation. This model of ‘blended learning’, in which children rotate between teacher-led classes and time in the computer lab, is the first on the continent. “They are learning and thinking in a teacher-led environment, then they practise what they learn

250,000 Estimated number of children in South Africa who are being educated in low-fee private schools

online. That rotation fosters independent work,” says SPARK Schools co-founder Ryan Harrison. “The really valuable part is that the software tracks each child and generates data that can be interpreted.” It is this cutting-edge innovation that has led to demonstrably better academic results and won the founders awards. Private schools have long been regarded as the preserve of elites, but schools like SPARK are contributing to the boom in low-fee private education in Johannesburg and cities around Africa, serving the relatively poor at relatively low cost. Low-fee private schools charging less than R12,000 ($930) a year, ● ● ●

The SPARK model combines individual computer learning with low-tech, group activites

BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

PROFILE

roughly the same amount the government spends on each public school learner nationally, educate an estimated quarter of a million students in South Africa, according to the think tank Centre for Development and Enterprise. South African low-fee schools are considerably more expensive than their counterparts in India – where some charge as little as $150 per year – and Kenya. The main reason for the higher fees is the high standards required for registration and accreditation. The Department of Basic Education estimates that in the first 14 years of this millennium the number of pupils in independent schools more than doubled to 538,421, accounting for 4% of all learners. Umalusi, the statutory body with the mandate to accredit all independent schools, estimated that in 2013 there were about 3,500 independent schools. The number of unregistered independent schools – those seeking to avoid the regulator’s steep fees – is unknown, but the Independent Schools Association of Southern Africa (ISASA) reckons it is more than 1,000. “What is happening is that with the population influx with people coming from all over the country and from outside of South Africa to urban areas, the state is unable to keep up with the influx of pupils or get the infrastructure where people are,” says Lebogang Montjane, ISASA’s executive director.

●●●

SPARK Schools Education provider

Innovation lights a fire

n the colourful corridors of the SPARK Bramley school in a Johannesburg suburb, a sky-blue poster reads: “Keep calm – I am going to university.” The mantra is crafted for the aspirational South Africans who send their children to SPARK Schools, where the tuition fee is tailored to modest budgets but students are able to compete with their well-heeled peers. SPARK’s founders, Stacey Brewer and Ryan Harrison, with their background in business and vision of a profitable school system, typify a new wave of education entrepreneurs. With the idea of providing affordable high-quality education, they founded SPARK Schools in 2011. Brewer explains: “A lot of people said a hybrid of high-quality education at an affordable cost was impossible, but it is through innovation that we are able to do it.” SPARK uses blended learning, which combines teacher-led and computerbased instruction. The school invests in its human capital and has adopted a ‘surgeon model’ – where teachers are specialists in one subject. With an inadequate supply of quality teachers, human capital is perhaps SPARK’s biggest outlay. Each teacher is offered 250 hours of training per year – more than the average state school teacher receives in a decade.

Charging R15,750 ($1,223) a year, SPARK benchmarks its fees on the equivalent amount the government spends to educate a child. Their first school, which opened in 2013, is oversubscribed. SPARK now runs four schools, with a further four opening next year. Brewer and Harrison aim to have 64 schools in the next decade. Despite the brisk growth of low-fee private schools across the continent, it is not a lucrative industry. SPARK Schools started to break even in the third year. “Education is a long-term investment – it is not a quick-fix. The financial returns are largely unproven, so it is a lot of risk in terms of investors coming on board,” Harrison says. Their initial funders were high-net-worth South Africans as well as the Pearson Affordable Learning Fund, which provides minority equity investments in for-profit companies. They avoid the government subsidies that prop up low-fee private schools across the country. “That is what is different about us. We have taken a conscious decision about that because we want to have the ability to scale and be sustainable and because, at the moment, government money is not a completely reliable source of income,” says Brewer. ● G.P.

BOTTOM OF THE CLASS

The burgeoning of low-cost independent schools also reflects a growing desire among South African parents for their children to be privately educated in the hope of accessing better education than what is provided by the state. A World Economic Forum report ranks South Africa last out of 148 countries for the quality of its maths and science education. Education gobbles up a fifth of the national budget, but outcomes are still fairly dismal. State schools are often beleaguered with strikes and overcrowding. In Port Elizabeth in July, protests over the dire state

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COMPANIES & MARKETS | BUSINESS

SCHOOL FEES IN SOUTH AFRICA ANNUAL FEE (WITHOUT BOARDING)

SCHOOL NAME

TYPE

GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS (average)

Government Primary: R6,000-R7,000

US$

$459-$535

Secondary: R8,000-R12,000 $611-$917

GREY COLLEGE (Bloemfontein) Government Secondary: R18,600

$1,429

PARKTOWN GIRLS HIGH (Johannesburg)

Government Secondary: R31,500

$2,403

PRETORIA BOYS

Government Secondary: R36,375

$2,775

GREY HIGH SCHOOL (Port Elizabeth)

Government Secondary: R37,920

$2,893

MERIDIAN SCHOOLS (Curro)

Independent Primary: R11,400-R19,380

$870-$1,479

SPARK SCHOOLS (eAdvance)

Independent Primary: R15,750

$1,201

PIONEER ACADEMIES

Independent Primary: R23,750-R28,000

$1,812-$2,136

Secondary: R33,250

$2,537

CURRO SCHOOLS

Independent Primary and secondary (average): R39,000

$2,975

ADVTECH ACADEMIES

Independent Secondary: R45,000

$3,433

TRINITYHOUSE (ADvTECH)

Independent Secondary: R75,000

$5,722

CRAWFORDSCHOOLS (ADvTECH)

Independent Secondary: R95,000

$7,247

REDDAM HOUSE

Independent Pre-/Primary R50,444-R85,306

$3,848-$6,508

Secondary: R89,823-R99,988 $6,852-$7,628 Independent R134,800 non-profit

of education there turned violent, resulting in police involvement. Most notably, Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed Curro and ADvTECH are meeting the demand for private tuition. They provide franchised brands catering to different markets in terms of the price and level of education. Up-market ADvTECH announced at the end of 2014 that it intends to push into the lower-fee category. Its low-to-mid-market rival Curro has expanded rapidly to 36,021 learners in 42 schools within the past four years. It has also been the focus of controversy after reports of alleged segregration at a school in Pretoria. Curro moved towards a hostile takeover of its smaller up-market competitor in July after ADvTECH’s board rejected a cash and share offer to create a $2bn educational heavyweight. Despite boasting brisk growth rates, these players will have to compete with the wave of ambitious entrepreneurs entering the private education market to THE AFRICA REPORT

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538,421 The number of independent school pupils more than doubled between 2000 and 2014

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SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF BASIC EDUCATION

KEARSNEY COLLEGE (KZN)

$10,284

offer innovative quality education at reasonable prices. “The MBA-ers are entering education in droves. We are seeing a very different type of model and we are seeing the commercial practices coming into education far more significantly for both profit and not-for-profit players,” says ISASA’s Montjane. There are three main types of private providers: the large, publicly listed companies like Curro, smaller for-profit chains and the non-profits. SPARK Schools co-founders, Stacey Brewer and Ryan Harrison, typify the trend for innovation, both of them sporting a master’s in business administration from the Gordon Institute of Business Science in Johannesburg. “The criticism that often comes with education is that it isn’t treated as a business so it is unprofessional,” argues Harrison. Nigerian-born Chinezi Chijioke studied at Harvard before getting his master’s degrees from Stanford in the US. The founder of

Pioneer Academies, he opened his first school this year in southern Johannesburg, with an initial enrolment target of 150 students. The numbers quickly soared to 250. “Parents seem to agree that a different approach to teaching is needed,” Chijioke explains. Within a decade he plans to open another 100 schools that will focus on inquiry-based study that fosters independent learning and problem-solving. NO SILVER BULLET

“It is a fantastic investment if you have patience. It can be a pretty good dividend for the long term,” says Chijioke while walking round airy classrooms whose glass walls are decorated with vivid learning diagrams. “But if you’re trying to start a school, break even and return capital within five years, you are going to make really bad decisions.” There is a $20bn market for new mass and middle-income private schools across Africa over the next decade, with $7.5bn in new school opportunities for mass andmiddleincome-pricedschools across just Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya, he says. But private schooling alone is no silver bullet. By 2050, 34% of the world’s population under 15 will live in Africa. “The incredible scale of Africa’s youth population over the next 35 years is why there will continue to be a great need for both public and private provision of learning and for a wide range of innovationinmakingschoolingaccessible to children,” Chijioke says. With most private schools catering for the 35 million people living in urban areas, bringing up the level of state education is crucial for the 19 million people living in rural South Africa. “The whole pro-private argument rests on the idea that competition between a range of similar suppliers means they are constantly driving up standards and keeping prices lower. But that isn’t possible in sparsely populated rural areas. So in some cases, you find that private schools are even worse than state schools,” says Joanna Härmä, an education expert from the University of Sussex. ●

MOROCCO

Al Amoudi burns his fingers The country’s sole oil refinery stopped operations in August, angering the authorities in Rabat. SAMIR now faces an uphill battle to raise funds and win back customers

orocco’s sole oil refinery, majority owned by Saudi/Ethiopian billionaire Mohammed Al Amoudi’s Corral Petroleum, is in crisis and the company’s management has soured its relations with the Moroccan government. The Société Anonyme Marocaine de l’Industrie du Raffinage (SAMIR) owes the authorities Dh13bn ($1.3bn) in unpaid taxes and wants to reschedule its bank debt of more than Dh24bn, of which a large part was borrowed from the Banque Centrale Populaire (BCP). SAMIR’s board is set to approve a plan to raise Dh10bn in mid-October, but analysts say that it may be too little and too late. SAMIR’s owners have played a game of brinkmanship and tried to use Saudi Arabia’s King Salman’s private visit to Morocco in August as a way of giving SAMIR’s troubles a political dimension. Coinciding with the royal visit, SAMIR made the unilateral decision to stop pro-

duction because of its huge financial losses caused by the drop in oil price since late 2014. The company reported a loss of $233m in the first half of 2015 due to the lower price and the refinery’s closure for maintenance during part of the first two months of the year. EMERGENCY STOCKS

SAMIR, which is 67% owned by Corral Petroleum, controls about 65%ofMorocco’smarketforrefined petroleumproducts,whichisabout 300,000 barrels per day. The government has been scrambling to find a solution and devoted most of its 19 August interministerial meeting to the SAMIR crisis. “There is no cause for alarm. Distributorshaveemergencystocks and they are authorised to import from international markets,” says Mustapha El Khalfi, government spokesperson and communications minister. SAMIR’s Mohammédiarefinery,located30kmnorth of Casablanca, has the capacity to

$233m Losses reported by SAMIR in the first half of 2015, due, it says, to the drop in oil price and maintenance costs

produce200,000barrelsperdaybut typically produces about 150,000. The crisis could drag on, as it is a particularly bad time for international fundraising for projects in the oil sector. Corral and SAMIR have also not given any indication of how long they think it will take to raise the Dh10bn and when production can restart. SAMIR is not paying its 1,200 employees. On the eve of the 19 August meeting, energy minister Abdelkader Amara, economy minister Mohamed Boussaid and interior minister Mohamed Hassad invitedAlAmoudi,thechairmanof the SAMIR board, to a meeting in Rabat. They expected him to propose a rescue plan for the refinery, which Corral had bought from the government in 1997. “This was not the case. There was nothing concrete, just promises,” confides a government source. If he was expecting a bailout, Al Amoudi was certainly disappointed. In comments to the media,

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COMPANIES & MARKETS | BUSINESS

Moroccan Dirhams

SAMIR’S SHARE PRICE FORTUNES

SOURCE: MARKETWATCH

No longer a shining 1 000 citadel of petroleum production, 750 SAMIR’s Mohammédia refinery has 500 been closed since August 250 as it looks for funding 0

2011

government officials said his behaviour seemed like an attempt to get the government to help resolve the crisis. The ministers took a firm stand. “Their position was clear: he will have to cover all of SAMIR’s losses andhewillbegivennofavours,” explains the source. Throughout the crisis, Al Amoudi has maintained a low profile and communicated only via written statements. The government has been quick to act during the impasse

2012

with SAMIR’s management. In mid-August, the Administration des Douanes et Impôts Indirects froze SAMIR’s bank accounts to ensure that all of the company’s arrears are paid. Trading of SAMIR’s shares on the Casablanca bourse have also been suspended since 6 August, and the stock lost about 50% of its value this year. STAGGERING SUM

A local investment banker familiar with the details of the SAMIR dossier says that the company’s fundraising programme is insufficient. “The refinery has to raise its capital by at least Dh15bn to come out of this mess and restart the machine.It’sastaggeringamount,certainly, but it is well within the grasp of the Corral group,” he explains.

2013

2014

2015

Al Amoudi’s initial reactions to SAMIR’s troubles, which have been growing since late last year, were meagre. In 2014, handicapped by the sudden drop in petrol prices, the refinery ended the fiscal year 2014 with a loss of Dh3.4bn. SAMIR restructured its debt with the BCP in late April and got new loans totalling Dh3bn. That came after another loan deal – for $235m – signed in February with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation, a subsidiaryoftheIslamicDevelopment Bank. None of that was enough to stop the August shutdown. On10August,Corralannounced via a published statement that it intended to inject Dh1.5bn until it held its extraordinary general assembly in mid-October. That decision, made following ● ● ●

AUTOREDO FZE | +971 4 880 94 50 | Jebel Ali Free Zone, Dubai (UAE) | www.autoredo.ae | africareport@autoredo.com

BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

the recommendation of local bank Attijari Finances Corp., quickly became obsolete when the customs authorities froze the refinery’s accounts a few days later. A member of the Groupement des Pétroliers du Maroc (GPM)argues that the crisis is far from over: “Something new comes up every day. We are certain that other creditors will come out in the coming days. Corral will not honour its promises. It is only buying time.” SinceCorral’stakeoverofSAMIR, Al Amoudi has not injected any of his own money into the company.

●●●

Investments financed through bank loans and the financial markets were enough to sustain the refinery as long as it continued generating enough cash flow. The investment banker source says that many in positions of authority in Morocco would prefer that Corral pass the baton to anotherinvestorthatwillboosttherefinery’s business and put in place a long-termstrategy.“Ifatransaction is necessary, it will be done with a reputable Moroccan firm, given the dire state of SAMIR’s balance sheet. It will therefore be either a

Before the crisis 150,000 barrels a day were leaving the refinery – about half of Morocco’s domestic needs

PROFILE

Mohammed Al Amoudi Chairman, Corral Petroleum

Ethiopian with influence ETHIOPIA-BORN SAUDI BILLIONAIRE Mohammed Al Amoudi, 69, is at the helm of Corral Petroleum, a Stockholm-based company that has controlling interests in three petrol refineries and owns more than a 1,000 petrol stations in the Middle East, North Africa and Sweden. Considered Ethiopia’s biggest employer, Al Amoudi, a discreet man, enjoys a close relationship with some of the political leaders in the Middle East. These links played in his favour during Morocco’s privatisation of the Société Anonyme Marocaine de l’Industrie du Raffinage (SAMIR) in 1997. The Moroccan government chose Al Amoudi’s bid even though “his offer was not the most appropriate,” as several ministers told the press at the time. According to Forbes magazine, he is the second-richest Saudi Arabian, with a fortune of more than $11bn. He is the owner of MIDROC, which in Ethiopia is active in many economic sectors, from tourism and construction to agriculture and mining. ● M.M.

nationalisation or a takeover by one or several private investors who have the means to carry this heavy burden,” he concludes. Companies are already adjusting their business plans to deal with SAMIR’s troubles. In late August, distributor OiLibya, which relied on SAMIR for about 50% of the supply for its petrol stations, announced that it will invest Dh800m in the country by 2017. One of the key projects is a new petroleum storage unit at the port city of Agadir that will allow the Libyan company to source more of its supply from its operations in Libya. Financial analyst Mohamed El Mehdi Chamchati told the Moroccan news website challenge.ma that it will be difficult for SAMIR to win back its clients: “All of the petroldistributorsthatbelongtoan international group and have the necessary financial means – like Afriquia, Shell and Total – could adopt OiLibya’s strategy. All of the distributors now prefer to get supplies from the international market instead of from SAMIR, which the GPM says is not competitive and sells products of an unsatisfactory quality.” Al Amoudi and Corral are under pressure to find a solution fast in order to head off any problems that would be worsened if SAMIR’s financial difficulties drag on much longer. ● Mehdi Michbal in Casablanca

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debates Tough talk on development

A UNIQUE PLATFORM TO ENGAGE ON AFRICAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S DEVELOPMENT

ACCRA, GHANA 20 November 2015 th

THE PLACE TO BE FOR AFRICAN LEADERS

How to attend: Alison Kingsley-Hall, a.kingsley-hall@theafricareport.com To become a sponsor: advertising@theafricareport.com

BUSINESS | LEADERS

PROFILE Oramah’s peers attest to his driving commitment to promoting businessthroughoutthecontinent. “He is someone who believes in African trade,’’ says Chris Oshiafi, the managing director of Lagosbased PanAfrican Capital, who has knownOramahforaboutadecade. COCOA PROCESSING

ANDY J RYAN PHOTOGRAPHY/ARK GROUP

Benedict Oramah President, African Export-Import Bank

My priority will be intra-African trade Taking over the leadership of the pan-African lender in September, Oramah talks to The Africa Report about boosting manufacturing and the bank’s balance sheet

or 21 years, Benedict Oramah has been involved at every stage in the evolution of the African Export-Import Bank(Afreximbank).Hewaspartof ateamofsixthathelpedtobuildthe bank’s foundation, having joined as a chief analyst in 1994, when the institution started its operations. Since then, he rose steadily to become its executive vice-president in 2008. In September, he took over the leadership of the bank as its third president, replacing outgoing

president Jean-Louis Ekra. And as he did so, he had his eyes set on his speciality: Africa’s trade, both within the continent and with the rest of the world. “As I take over, my priority really willbetodosomethingaboutintraAfrican trade and Africa-South trade. My belief is that by focusing on intra-African trade, we will also achieve the objective of transforming Africa’s export sector. This is because intra-African trade is dominated today by light manufacturers,’’hetellsTheAfricaReport.

Oramah says he will focus on raising the low levels of intra-regional trade and value-added exports, thereby reducing the reliance on the export of raw commodities. Oramah led the Afreximbank team that developed the Africa Cocoa Initiative, a mechanism through which the bank aims to help increase the level of cocoa processing in Africa from the current level of about 20% of raw cocoa to 35% by 2016. Considering that Africa is the leader in world cocoa production, this initiative launched in 2012 is set to bolster Africa’s export growth and earning capacity. The programme’s focus is on primary processing with the end products being cocoa butter, cocoa liquor and cocoa powder, Oramah explains, adding that emphasis on chocolate production will come later. The cocoa initiative has already made significant achievements and attracted support from some African cocoa-producing countries and European development finance institutions. The bank had committed $350m to the initiative by the end of 2014. In terms of constraints on these sorts of projects, “we at Afreximbank believe that the gap lies in the financing of imports of investment goods and pre-financing value-added exports,” Oramah says. “Those who go into these kinds of businesses usually have very limited or no access to trade finance.” Previous Afreximbank president Jean-Louis Ekra pointed to the multiplier effect that the institution can have, arguing that the $1bn it provided to 19 projects in 2014 led to commitments from other investors of $7bn.

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LEADERS | BUSINESS

APPOINTMENTS

RAISING CAPITAL

Geographical expansion has also been one of Afreximbank’s recent priorities. In addition to its regional offices in Harare, Zimbabwe and Abuja, Nigeria, it opened up a new office in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire in May. It also signed a €57m ($64.3m) deal for a hotel project in Cabo Verde in June. However, Afreximbank’s new president faces some key challenges. One of these is how to grow the bank’s capital base to strengthen it for the kind of interventions it plans to make. For now, the bank’s goals far exceed its capacities. As of 30 June 2015, shareholder funds were $1.2bn while callable capital was $423m. Afreximbank’sshareholders,which include several governments, have agreed to raise the bank’s authorised capital to $5bn. It is only with increased capitalisation that the bank can hope to work with others to meet the deTHE AFRICA REPORT

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mand for finance, Oramah admits. Its pipeline of deals totals $40bn, he says. “Expansion of our support for export manufacturing requires capital, specialised skills and partnerships to do it effectively and with low risk.’’ The bank is due to launch another $500m eurobond before the end of 2015. MOBILE TECHNOLOGY

The bank also needs to formulate a clear strategy for creating the system to foster improved cross-border money and goods transfers. It seeks to use mobile technology to formalise the estimated more than $60bn of informal intra-African trade, with the aim of raising it to about 20% of Africa’s total trade, from the current level of about 13%. The bank launched talkswithZimbabwe-basedEconet Wireless, owned by businessman Strive Masiyiwa, on the creation of a new mobile payments system for trade in November 2014. Under Oramah, Afreximbank looks set to continue providing emergency finance to countries facing financial difficulties. In 2014, the institution launched a $100m interbank facility for Zimbabwe’s banks to help fight liquidity problems. In August, Oramah announced a programme of foreign exchange swaps with the Bank of Ghana, which has been struggling with a depreciating currency, high inflation and other economic chal-

A LIFE IN TRADE FINANCE 1991 Doctorate in agricultural economics from Obafemi Awolowo University 1992 Joined the Nigeria Export-Import Bank as assistant manager for research 1994 Joined Afreximbank as chief analyst 2008 Became Afreximbank executive vice-president

Emmanuel Kachikwu Nigeria’s President Buhari appointed Kachikwu to head the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation in August. Formerly executive vice-chairman at ExxonMobil (Africa), he is a Harvard doctor of law and also owns the Nigerian franchise to Hello! magazine.

Zyda Rylands After a 20-year career at the supermarket chain, Rylands became CEO of Woolworths South Africa in September. Considered to be dynamite for the bottom line, she increased profits at Woolworths Foods by 240% since 2010. Rylands started out as a chartered accountant.

“The bank should be a vehicle to improve Africans’ access to transformative trade finance” lenges this year. The Ghanian authorities took the opportunity to ask Oramah for his institution’s help with the creation of the country’s own export-import bank. With the pan-African lender on this track, it is set to stake out a stronger position as a partner for African governments seeking to improve their positions in terms of international trade. ●

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Vincent Nwanma in Lagos

Julius Kipng’etich Troubled Kenyan retailer Uchumi has appointed Kipng’etich as its new CEO in an attempt to turn a page for the debt-ridden company. A senior executive at Equity Bank, his track record includes turning around the Kenya Wildlife Service.

Filling such a gap is in line with the aims of the founding fathers of the bank. They envisioned that Afreximbank would help to promote intra-regional trade and also serve as an instrument for the transformation of the export sector. “I also trust that the bank should be a vehicle to improve access of Africans to trade finance, especially [finance] with transformative features,’’ Oramah says. Since the establishment of Afreximbank, Oramah has been involved in strategy formulation. He authored key chapters and supervised the preparation of all four strategic plans drawn up since 1995. He has also handled special assignments for the bank. For instance, at the peak of the Western financial crisis in 2009, he was charged with the responsibility of managing the bank’s debut rating. Fitch, Moody’s and S&P assigned investment-grade ratings to the bank. Those ratings enabled the bank to undertake its debut eurobond issuance, raising $300m in 2009.

HANNIBAL BONDS

Gulp! Get ready for a world of indifferent beer THE PROPOSED $122bn merger between the world’s two largest brewing companies, AB InBev and SABMiller, would create a world in which one in three beers would be delivered by the new company. Africa is a key prize for InBev: by joining up with SABMiller – itself a merger between South African Breweries and Miller in 2002 – it would pick up SABMiller’s $7bn in revenue and gain access to the fastest-growing beer market in the world. Fitch Ratings says the combined businesses would get 12% of revenue and 9% of profits from the region.

Francophone Africa left to the tender clutches of Castel? SHOULD THE MERGER GO THROUGH, SABMiller may jettison its stake in Castel, a French-owned brewer present in much of Francophone Africa. There are currently cross holdings between the two companies: SABMiller owns 20% of Castel’s African operations while Castel has a 38% share of SABMiller’s operations on the continent excluding South Africa. Castel is busy bolstering its wine business – with its Ethiopian vineyards already producing their first bottles. An expansion plan is under way to extend the vineyards by a further 70ha, with the goal of producing 1.8m bottles annually.

Green versus the red, white and blue OTHER INTERNATIONAL BREWERS have not been idle on the continent. Heineken, of green bottle renown, bought a slew of brands and manufacturing facilities during the past decade. It could face a challenge on the African scene from InBev’s flagship Budweiser – with the huge marketing machine that goes with it. The weak-tasting American beer, wrapped up in the colours of the US flag, had a hefty $449m advertising spend in 2012. Heineken has hitherto been alone in positioning itself as one of the few premium international beers widely available on the continent. But discerning beer drinkers might not see Budweiser as much of a threat to the ‘premium’ tag, Hannibal understands.

East African battlegrounds ANOTHER GLOBAL DRINKS GIANT, Diageo, could also feel more pressure. The UK-based company currently owns 40% of East African Breweries (EAB). EAB won the ‘beer wars’ of the early 2000s when it managed to undercut new entrant SABMiller. By 2011, SABMiller chose a less direct route back into the Kenyan and Tanzanian market by buying up Crown Foods. Diageo must fear that a bulked-up competitor could turn the screws once more. Meanwhile, EAB already has enough on its plate: the Tanzanian competition regulator is looking to reverse EAB’s 2010 purchase of a 51% stake in Serengeti Breweries. ●

Zim’s debt market to relaunch Issuers, investors and regional bourses are excited by the news from Harare

here to source capital in Zimbabwe? Banks are facing a liquidity crunch, while the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) has provided little respite. That Zimbabwe’s fixedincome market ispoisedforrebirth is welcome news to companies. ZSE boss Alban Chirume told a September gathering of investors that “appetite from issuers and investors is high”. The relaunch of the bond market, which collapsed in 2001, has been under discussion since 2013 and requires the additional input of ratings agencies and other associated players. That interest has gone beyond borders. The ZSE is already working with the Botswana Stock Exchange, and officials from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) visited Harare in September. “It is a very exciting time for the development of markets on the continent, and the JSE is always happy to assist and to learn from our fellow exchanges,” says Tamsin Freemantle, business development manager at the JSE. Although all Zimbabwean municipal long-term bonds are already listed on the ZSE, they see virtually no trading. This excludes a significant portion of saving pools, like international pension funds. But newly revised listing requirements, which await regulatory approval, should also inject new dynamism. For Ritesh Anand of Invictus Securities this will help bring down the cost of capital, and help firms “reduce risk of maturity and currency mismatch on their balance sheet, thus reducing overall cost”. ● Perry Munzwerimbi in Harare

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DOSSIER

AGRIBUSINESS

Senegal gets Fertile and politically stable, Senegal is beginning to compete with Egypt and South Africa to export fresh fruit and vegetables to European markets. The government is also developing a major rice production centre around the Senegal River By Rose Skelton in Saint-Louis

hen Jean-Marie Goudiaby stood in a Waitrose supermarket in Britain in 2009 and saw his test-run organic sweet onions for sale for £1 ($1.50) each, it confirmed that his dream of becoming an exporter of highquality niche vegetables from his native Senegal could become reality. “£1 is the price of one kilo of the same onions in Senegal,” he says. “When you are exporting to the European Union, the product has to be innovative and have ad-

ded value. They really loved the product,” he says of the company that now distributes his onions. “It was new and original.” Goudiaby is part of a movement that is beginning to sweep Senegal. Companies are positioning themselves to be suppliers of fruit and vegetables to European markets. Ranging from smallscale farms such as Goudiaby’s 50ha to the French-owned 300ha Grands Domaines du Sénégal farm, Senegal’s fertile land, good climate, abundant reserves of water and its proximity to Europe are

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Red onion producers in the Senegal River valley bag up their goods

growing ROSE SKELTON FOR TAR

making it an economical and attractive alternative to agricultureexporting countries such as Egypt, Kenya and South Africa. SAFE TO INVEST

Stability is also a major consideration for investors, says Juan Carlos Leon, sourcing and business development director at Barfoots of Botley, a UK-based grower of produce in Senegal. “We invested in Senegal because it is a stable country in West Africa. Despite the government change [in 2012], there were no issues with the transition.” THE AFRICA REPORT

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$59m Value of Senegal’s global vegetable exports in 2014, up from $24.9m in 2010

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Goudiaby, whose sister Yolande does the manual work on part of their 50ha parcel in the sandy north of the country near the city of Saint-Louis, says that although northern Senegal is arid, it has a good climate for farming. With Senegal’s tropical southern region – Casamance – caught in a long-running but low-level civil conflict, investing in a farm there did not make sense, says JeanMarie, even though the Goudiaby siblings are natives of that region. Under a scorching sun and blastedbythehotwindsthatdrawsand

across the flat landscape, Yolande and her sole helper dig trenches in thesandsothatwaterpumpedfrom atributaryoftheSenegalriverfeeds into the crop beds. Red onions, a favourite on the local market and a staple of Senegalese cuisine, are the main crop. The Goudiaby farm also produces sweet onions, delicata squash, salad leaves, herbs and red chillies. It has a buyer for fresh black beans in Italy and is experimenting with grapes in the hope of being able to supply the local market, which currently imports grapes from South Africa.

DOSSIER | AGRIBUSINESS

“[Our grapes] would be more affordable,” saysJean-Marie,whohas ambitions of joining the Lebanese and Guinean fruit traders in supplying the local market with these fruit. “We Senegalese are new in this business,” he adds. The Goudiaby siblings aim to farm the entirety of the 50ha that they own, but problems with crop-destroying insects and chillieating monkeys have held them back.Jean-Marie’sgoal,however,is to organise the many smallholder farmers in northern Senegal. They could form a collective to supply the European market and take a share in a sector currently dominated by foreign-owned companies. “The idea is to bring business to the smallholders,” he says. ScatteredthroughouttheSenegal River Valley, where the Goudiaby siblings have started their farm, are the roofs of huge covered farms for companiessuchasBarfoots,which, inpartnershipwiththeSenegaleseowned Société de Cultures Légumières, produces sweetcorn, sweet potatoes, asparagus, chillies and beans on 2,000ha. Senegal’s hot and dry weather, says Barfoot’s Leon, “allows us to produce at key times of the year. This is when the cropfromthenorthernhemisphere comes to an end and the new crop from the southern hemisphere is not quite ready, and vice versa.” With this advantage, Senegal’s global vegetable exports grew in value from $24.9m in 2010 to $59.1m in 2014, according to data from the UN Comtrade database. GOVERNMENT RICE DRIVE

It is not just private investors who make up this new wave of growers. A few dozen kilometres from the Goudiaby farm, bright green rice fields stretch out along the horizon, where workers are bent low to the ground. Donkey carts rattle along dirt tracks that separate the smallholder paddy fields along the Senegal River. Irrigation channels and dams stretch from the river and its snaking tributaries, feeding the 60,612ha that the government has set aside for rice production. The government used a grant from the US Millennium Challenge Corporation to build

also buy locally produced rice, although at the moment Senegal does not produce enough to make distributers buy equal amounts. Senegal currently imports low-quality, cheap rice from Asia that consumers generally prefer to the locally produced rice. The SAEDisbuilding25ricetransformation centres to produce betterquality rice. It should be possible to sell local rice cheaper than imported rice, says the SAED, but both local and imported sell at 300 CFA francs ($0.51) per kilo. It is not clear how the government and other producers will convince the consumer to buy local rice unless they can lower the price.

MAURITANIA

Saint-Louis

Bakel

Dakar

SENEGAL

GAMBIA

GUINEA-BISSAU

GUINEA

Atlantic Ocean

100 km

Around

two-thirds

ONION GLUT

of the workforce are employed in agriculture

17%

Some of Senegal’s GDP comes from the agriculture sector Groundnut production takes up around

40%

of agricultural land, while

33%

is devoted to cotton. roads and irrigation infrastructure in the region. This valley is key to its goalof achieving self-sufficiency in rice production by 2017. Seyni Ndao, the deputy CEO of the government-run Société Nationale d’Aménagement et d’Exploitation des Terres du Delta du Fleuve Sénégal (SAED), explains: “By 2017, our objective is to produce 1.08m tonnes of white rice a year. From Saint-Louis to Bakel, we are developing infrastructure, machinery, storage units, irrigation and drainage.” The government is keen to cut down on the costly importation of rice. It subsidises 40% of the cost of fertilisers and pays up to 60% of the cost of machinery for rice producers.Importersofforeign-grown rice are contractually obliged to

SOURCE: NEW AGRICULTURALIST

1.08m tonnes of rice a year by 2017 is the production target for the Senegal River project

Senegal’s agricultural drive is creating both winners and losers. Carrying a dusty backpack and hitchhiking south from SaintLouis, onion farmer Assane Sow takes out a handful of tomato seed packets that he hopes will provide an income to help his wife and three children. “There is overproduction of onions on the local market,” he explains, “so I decided to stop farming onions.” In 2014, says Sow, he could sell a kilo of onions for 300 CFA francs. But now, with foreign onion imports frozen to encourage local production, a kilo of onions sells for just 100 CFA francs. “It’s the government plan that is making us suffer,” he says. “You see people who have no experience in farming, or people who were previously growing potatoes, now growing onions. Last year, the price was so good that now everyone is growing onions.” Jean-Marie Goudiaby, who also supplies the local market with onions, argues that this is just a momentary blip. Despite the challenges, he holds on to the memory of the moment his UK distributers received their first shipment of organic sweet Senegalese onions. “They were looking on the map at Senegal,” he says, smiling. “They were thrilled: six days from Dakar to Dover and a low-cost production. We need business here,” he says. “And the more business we have, the better.” ●

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DOSSIER | AGRIBUSINESS

COCOA

Côte d’Ivoire’s grind hits a bump

he Ivorian government is pushing industry to process 50% of the country’s cocoa harvest, which is the largest in the world, but business leaders say that the grinding sector has already plateaued due to the removal of government incentives and a recent rise in prices paid to farmers. Ever since President Alassane Ouattara’s government implemented reforms in 2012 that streamlined the sector and promoted a higher fixed price for farmers, cocoa grinders have been lobbying government to change thewaythegrindingsectoristaxed. Talks about the processing sector have been delayed and are expected to be completed in November. The grinding sector has been growing strongly over the past few years. According to Jean-Marc Anga from the International Cocoa Organization, in the 2014/2015 cocoa season Côte d’Ivoire surpassed the Netherlands as the world’s top grinder, with an alltime high of 570,000tn. Although grindersarecomplainingaboutthe profitability of the sector, companies have opened new plants this year. In March, Singapore’s Olam, which purchased the global cocoa operations of US-based Archer Daniels Midland in December 2014, opened its second grinding plant, at the port of San Pedro, with a capacity to grind 75,000tn per year. Investments such as these take a long time to plan, and Olam had committed to it before the cocoa sector reforms of 2012. The principal point of discord between the investors and the government relates to the main export levy, the Droit Unique de Sortie. Prior to 2012, processors

paid taxes based on the weight of the processed cocoa products. Under the new system, grinders have to pay taxes based on the weight of beans purchased. This has led to a 25% increase in the tax burden. The government introduced the previous tax break in the 1990s to attract investors and boost local grinding operations. It was supposed to be in place for only five years to allow grinders to recoup their investment costs. Now processors say they are treated the same as exporters that ship raw beansanddonothaveanincentive to grind their beans locally. POSITIVE MOVE

InearlyJuly,Ouattara’sgovernment said it would reintroduce some form of tax incentive. Although it did not give details, the announcement pleased the processors. “It’s a positive move,” says Abbas Amer, director of operations of Choco Ivoire, the main Ivorian-owned cocoa factory, which is based in San Pedro. “This is what we were expecting, even if we are still waiting for more details.” Industry sources say that companies should not be too optimistic. A prominent industry source

SOURCE: ECOBANK

Processors say the government must offer incentives if it wants to increase local grinding to 50% of the cocoa crop. An announcement is expected in November

13% of the world’s cocoa grinding is done in Côte d’Ivoire, which is now the leader in the field

COCOA PRODUCTION Côte d’Ivoire 1.8

Ghana

Nigeria

Cameroon

Million metric tonnes

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

SOURCE: ECOBANK

whoaskedforanonymity,explains: “The government is more flexible. It has accepted to grant another tax break, but it will be limited in time and only for newly installed facilities.” He says that the changes are unlikely to take effect until the 2016/2017 season. Although government officials keep saying they want to process 50% of the country’s cocoa locally by 2020, up from 30% currently, analysts say it is not doing everything it could to reach that goal. Côte d’Ivoire is committed “to favour grinding over export of raw beans,” government spokesman Bruno Koné says. “Grinding locally gives us added value and creates jobs.” Thegovernmentsaysthatitisfocused on boosting added value in otheragriculturalfields,suchasthe cashew sector. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s second-largest cashew nut producerwith625,000tninthe2015 season.Therateoflocalprocessing isabout7%,with41,012tnprocessed

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AGRIBUSINESS | DOSSIER

Local grinders are in more trouble than the multinationals like Olam and Barry Callebaut. Most Ivorian companies launched their operations within the past 10 years, and they have not had time to pay off their investments. Local company Choco Ivoire is now grinding about 30,000tn per year out of a total capacity of 100,000tn because of the tax regime, Amer tells The Africa Report. “If we have our advantages back, it will encourage us to grind more,” he adds. Smaller company Susco, which had been processing for French company Cémoi, has shut down its operations.

PHILIPPE GUIONIE/MYOP FOR TAR

ASIAN DEMAND

locally. The Conseil du Coton et de l’Anacarde has set an even more ambitious target of processing 35% of the cashew crop by 2020. Analysts do not share the same point of view as the government about its commitment to processing. “There is not really a political will to process cocoa locally,” says Abidjan-based economist Souleymane Ouattara. “Cocoa factories are not job-creating units, and the market is not big enough.” Cocoa factories are indeed highly mechanised and firms are only making half-processed products – mainly cocoa liquor. SLUMP EXPECTED

Research from pan-African lender Ecobank argues that the removal of the tax break has created an unfavourable environment and is now discouraging investments in the sector. This situation may explain why the government is changing strategy. The bank says that the grinding sector has at least THE AFRICA REPORT

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temporarily peaked and is expected to slump this season. It estimates grindings this harvest will only reach 500,000-540,000tn. Production should not fall too much more, as grinders have longterm contracts with chocolatiers. They are complaining though that processing cocoa locally is becoming less profitable. Grinders also face surging prices. The 2012 reforms set a guaranteed farmgate price for farmers. A set price, combined with an improved quality thanks to tougher rules and controls, have driven prices up. In the 2014/2015 season, the price was set at 850 CFA francs ($1.5)/kg, up from an average of 667 CFA francs just before the reform. Margins are also thin for Ivorian grinders. The country is not cost competitiveandthecocoaindustry is not labour-intensive, which meansthatlowerlabourcostsdon’t offset higher production costs and a lack of local consumption.

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While cocoa beans are Côte d’Ivoire’s biggest export, Africans are not big chocolate consumers

Victoria Crandall, a commodities analyst for Ecobank, explains: “[Cocoa grinding] creates some jobs, but not at the scale of a final product. The real money in the cocoa industry is in making chocolate: it’s in the distribution, the retail.” There is little room for expansion in the grinding sector. “There is not a huge market for chocolate in Africa,” Crandall says. “While it is growing modestly, it is unlikely that consumption will surge in the short to medium term.” And it is unlikely to see many multinationals embarking in the steps that Cémoi took in opening a chocolate factory this May, she adds. The French company’s factory has the capacity to produce 10,000tn of chocolate, and the company says it is targeting the growing West African middle classes. Demand, however, is taking off in Asia. Indonesia – the world’s third-largest cocoa grower – along with Malaysia and Singapore are becoming grinding hubs, based on rising demand for cocoa powder in China and India. The increasing international competition could give the Ivorian government a reason to rethink how best to create an environment that encourages local production. With firms holding back from developing expansion plans, the government will have to act soon if it wants to meet the 50% local processing target within the next five years. ● Olivier Monnier in Abidjan

DOSSIER | AGRIBUSINESS

In the biggest port of the biggest fishing economy in Africa, what could go wrong?

in support, services and logistics. The latter range from companies providing the raw products and manufacturers of containers to those providing services such as recruitment, accounting and regional and international transport,” Harket explains.

OKLA MICHAL/AP/SIPA

RIGOROUS SELECTION

MOROCCO

Yes, we can The Haliopolis cluster is key to the government’s plan to raise seafood processing capacity by 70% on 2007 levels – now it is just waiting for the companies to move in

he growth of Morocco’s seafood-processing sector depends on the nascent Haliopolis industrial centre just outside of Agadir, but it is already facing some of the problems that have hindered similar projects. As part of the government’s wider Halieutis 2020 Plan for the modernisation of the fisheries sector, the authorities launched initial works on the 150ha Haliopolis industrial park at Drarga on the outskirts of Agadir in September 2009 to provide facilities that could process 500,000tn of seafood per year. The Dh6.6bn ($678m) Haliopolis project is also slated to create more than 20,000 jobs. Fisheries play a vital role in the economy. The fishing sector in Morocco accounts directly for more than 60,000 jobs and contributes about 2-3% to gross domestic product. Morocco’s fishery production in marine waters was 1.2m tonnes in 2012, which was the largest catch in Africa, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.

The government plans to increase the country’s processing capacity from 1m tonnes per year in 2007 to 1.7m in 2020. The four-phase Haliopolis complex will house companies involved in processing, packaging, logistics and research. “It’s an industrial zone dedicated exclusively to the processing of seafood, and it’s the first of its kind in the country,” says Mohamed Bouayad, president of the Agadir Haliopole association, which was created in 2011 to support the competitiveness of companies in the sector. Saâd Harket, director general of the Haliopolis, is convinced that the initiative has won over companies in the industry. The Haliopolis has now allocated plots to 131 companies. “The first phase of the project – the second, third and fourth phases will be dedicated to the building of a 74ha (gross) Agropole – was delivered in early 2012. It covers 76ha (gross) and comprises the total area of the park dedicated to fish processing industries as well as companies involved

1.7m

SOURCE: MAPM

The Haliopolis project will help the government hit its target of boosting its fish processing capacity to almost 2m by 2020

One challenge for the Haliopolis is to avoid errors of earlier projects. In the Tassila, Aït Melloul and Sidi Bibi industrial zones, companies abandoned their projects, causing the sites to sit vacant. At the Haliopolis, “plots are only allocated to companies with concrete projects and to investors who justify the area requested, the cost of the project, how it will be financed and the estimated profitability,” adds Harket. Despite the rigorous measures adopted, only five companies are currently constructing facilities. Pélagique Industrie, a local fish canning company that employs about 500 people, is developing 40,000 square metres. The slow progress raises questions about the commitment of companiesthathavesignedupand the effectiveness of the 24-month deadline to begin work on their plots. Nonetheless, Harket claims thereisnocauseforalarm.“Thearrival of the economic crisis slowed down the momentum a bit. Since then, things have picked up and one [company] has promised to finishitsfactorybytheendof2015.” Ali Rgubi, the chief executive of Pélagique Industrie, concurs with this assessment: “We began construction in March, and we’re looking to finish by the end of the year, inshallah [God willing]. They [the Haliopolis] are very serious, so we haven’t had any problems.” Should the Haliopolis deliver as its executives predict, the muchanticipated progress for Morocco’s processing industry might be just around the corner. If not, grand plans for the fisheries industry may end up in the can once more. ● Oheneba Ama Nti Osei

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ART & LIFE

Etiquette

The icing on the cake For savvy Nigerian parents schooling in manners is about more than social status: they aim to buy their children an edge in the competitive world of work. We spent a week in Lagos with the kids who are copping the right moves

By Billie Adwoa McTernan in Lagos

Etiquette Avenue CEO Amanda Amusan puts the finishing touches to a tea party

t’s a hot and sticky afternoon in Lagos and, after a morning of demonstrating good table manners, Amanda Amusan – founder of The Etiquette Avenue – slips off her patent leather, high-heeled shoes and puts on some more comfortable ballet flats before heading into another session with a group of 13 and 14 year olds. It’s the long vac, or the summer holidays, and some of the children are back home having spent term time away at boarding school. Many of them are looking forward to spending the rest of their holiday abroad in London, Miami or Atlanta. This is day three of the ‘Mind Your Manners’ etiquette summer camp and on the agenda for the ‘Teen Delegates’ age group is ‘netiquette’: internet etiquette. With the goal of teaching the class how best to address others when com-

municating over the phone or the internet, the session quickly turns into a crash course in teenage text talk. “We can’t assume that everyone has a teenage dictionary of text talk to hand,” Amusan says, the bemused group sniggering at her confusion over their text abbreviations. I quickly scribble down some of the new expressions that I haven’t come across: idg, I don’t grab; and wu2, what are you up to? Sitting at the front of the class, I pride myself on my decision during university to stop all (most) of my shorthand text messaging. I tell this to Amusan, the teacher, and receive a flashing smile – extra brownie points for me. The camp is taking place at Edgewood College, a private British-curriculum sixth form college on a quiet road with high-walled, pastel-painted houses and grand gates protected by shard glass in this citadel that is Lekki. ● ● ●

TOM SAATER FOR TAR

schools

ART & LIFE

● ● ● This is one of Lagos’s most wealthy neighbourhoods,favouredbythemonied movers and shakers and not far from the homes of many of the young participants. “We are chasing money,” is the candid admission of a mother of two girls attending the programme, one of whom goes to a boarding school in the UK. “We don’t have time to teach them all these things at home. We’d rather use that time for quality time.” Her daughters are enrolled in culinary classes the following week. “They might not retain everything, but some things will resonate,” she adds. “Good manners could make the difference between securing a contract and losing one.”

BEWARE THE HAM SANDWICH

The following day Amusan goes over the table settings she taught at the beginning of the week. “And what knife do we use if we are having beef?” she asks. “The steak knife,” the children and I reply in unison as she draws a mock table on the whiteboard. My own drawing definitely doesn’t resemble a good table setting. I take a peek at my classmates’ efforts. Some seem to have had more practice at this, having accurately drawn butter knives and dessert forks. I resign from my artistic ambitions and head to the other room with the eight-to-12-year-old ‘Little Ambassadors’ for instructions on good posture and impeccable manners. “You mustn’t cross your legs when sitting because you’ll end up with what I like to call a ham sandwich,” says Kymberley Oyewole – a fellow parent who is assisting Amusan in the week’s lessons. I’m not sure what kind of ham sandwiches the children are used to but I picture the kind I used get as a child after school: wafer thin between two slices of white bread – not a pleasant memory. I immediately put both feet firmly on the floor, knees together. It’s time for the boys to help the young ladies into their seats. I sit this one out and watch as one of the boys dutifully pulls out chairs for a series of butterwouldn’t-melt-in-their-mouths young girls who shuffle as he adjusts their seats. “Whydotheboyshavetodoeverything and the girls do nothing?” one of the boys complains. “That’s not true,” one of his 12-yearold classmates retorts. “We women do everything! When we get older, we do the shopping, we cook the food. The boys go to work, stay there for hours, get home at

10 o’clock. As far as I am concerned, the boys do nothing.” A round of applause from some of her supporters precedes a thoughtful debate about the evolving roles of parents, husbands, wives and children in the family home. It ends with the consensus that both mum and dad work very hard to provide for their families, just sometimes in different ways. Another round of applause. Between keeping elbows off the tables and placing cutlery on the plate at ‘10.20’

How well do you dine? 1. [Men] At a formal dinner a woman is waiting to be seated. Do you: a) Rush to the nearest free chair because everyone is waiting and it’s a dog-eat-dog world? b) Offer the chair to the woman then wait till she is seated before you adjust the seat for her? c) Point her in the direction of a free seat? 2. Dinner is being served and your meal is in front of you. Do you: a) Wait till everybody has been served or for a cue from the host to begin eating? b) Get stuck in, first come first served? c) Wait for the people next to you before you begin? 3. What do you do if you don’t like the meal that has been served? a) Smile politely and tell your host that you ate a big meal before coming? b) Express your dislike and ask for something else? c) Smile politely, eat what you can and thank the host? 4. You would like to add salt but the shaker is at the other end of the table. Do you: a) Ask for both the salt and pepper from your neighbour? b) Ask for just the salt? c) Get up and get it yourself? Answers: 1. b) ; 2. a) ; 3. c) ; 4. a)

there is an unmistakable whiff of British influence that filters through the course. But a reminder of how to say good morning or greet in Nigeria’s three most-spoken languages – e kaaro in Yoruba, i boola chi in Igbo and ina kwana in Hausa – brings it back home. ForAmusan,teachingtheartof“proper manners” was a long-held ambition. Whenherfatherpassedaway,hermother was left to bring up three children by herself in Lagos. As the eldest, Amusan, then aged five, did not want to make things more difficult for her mum. Her determination to do things “right” earned her the nickname “Little Madam” from her mother. “I just wanted to do good: study well, behave well,” she says. Years later, after working as a real estate surveyor, Amusan became a mother herself and started a business making gift hampers. But it wasn’t until two years ago that she decided it was time to follow her passion. After taking a training course with a London-based etiquette school, she set up The Etiquette Avenue. “For me, good etiquette is as much savoir vivre as it is savoir faire,” Amusan muses as she and her colleagues discuss their thoughts on the afternoon’s gender debate.“Thedaysofsocialetiquettebeing about class are over. It is all-embracing.” HAVES AND HAVE NOTS

In Nigeria, the middle ground between poor and very rich is undoubtedly expanding, but at N45,000 ($225) per child for the week, Amusan’s course is out of reach for the average earner. Amusan says that she wants her programme to be accessible for all, with tailored content according to the demographic, but she insists that she will not lower her standards. This is where the government would have to step in, she says, to sponsor her courses and help close up the large disparities between the haves and the have nots in health, education and job prospects. “In the federal school system you don’t get so much intermingling between the social classes, unlike 20-30 years ago,” says Oyewole. “Unfortunately, amenities are few and far between, and what is available is woefully inadequate. Because of that, the middle classes opt to send their children to private schools. So you’re not getting a utopian educational ideal of all the classes mingling together as you were 30 years ago,” she adds. Back in the classroom, the 13 and 14 year olds begin to revert to old habits as THE AFRICA REPORT

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ART & LIFE

TOM SAATER FOR TAR

Ain’t misbehavin’: the class of 2015 proudly show their certificates before getting some real vacation time

basketballonthecourtoutside.Iaskthem they slouch in their seats, comfortable how they are finding the week so far. in the conversation about emotional “It’s OK. I thought it was going to be intelligence. “So what do you do if your parents buy more boring, but it’s kind of fun,” says one you something to wear that you don’t of the girls who is in an American-run boarding school in Kenya. “And I haven’t like?” Mrs Oyewole asks. seen these guys in ages,” she says as she I think back to a time when I was gestures to the gaggle of girls. made to wear a stiff pink poofy party “I’m missing out on a few things dress that the pre-adolescent me was though,” gripes one of the boys, “but less than ecstatic about. I sulked for a these classes finish at 1pm so there is still good few days after that. time. And the lessons are kind of useful, “You just have to wear it,” one of the like how to manage your anger and stuff. students answers. We should have these classes in school.” “Or,” another interrupts with a bright Many of the children’s parents are idea, “you can wear it every two weeks well-to-do business people, often selfwhen you know you aren’t going anywhere.” The rest nod in assured agreement. “We are chasing money,” says one One of the parents conmother. “We don’t have time to fides that many of the childrenareusedtogettingwhat teach them these things at home” theywant,particularlywhen they are often left alone during the day made entrepreneurs, owners of events with nannies who respond to their decompanies and security companies, mands with snacks. Also, parents who pastors and occasionally human resources and management consultants. spend much time working can ply their Some of the children say they hope children with gifts to make up for their that one day they will be bankers – in absences. “We have to teach them that general they dream of becoming a big sometimes having less family time is a sacrifice their parent’s make for them to “money-maker”. Others would like to work in science or the arts, but the mahave a good life,” says Oyewole. At break time, the girls practise dance jority aren’t sure and will “see how it routines in the corridor to the songs on goes”. The luxury of youth and affluence their mobile phones while the boys play suggests time and choice. THE AFRICA REPORT

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“Thesethingsareimportant,andit’snot just about the international stage,” says a mother of one of the girls, pleased with the local touch that the lessons offer. “I went out for a work dinner and observed the way people carried on, it is telling. It would make Nigeria a more pleasant place if everyone were better mannered.” No matter where you are in Lagos, be it the mainland or the island, one thing that can be seen is that the city’s citizens have learned to be self-sufficient. They don’t expect the government to give them constant electricity or water. If a road is heavily potholed, in some parts of town – where they can afford it – residents fix the roads themselves. And if they are able, they send their children to the best schools their money will buy. As Nigeria’s economy strengthens and its businesses become more global, parents are ever mindful of the international competition and the stage that is being set for their children. “Unfortunately, a certain sphere of our society has gotten it into their heads that for their children to be well-mannered and refined they must send them to some boarding school abroad. I don’t agree,” themotherofoneinsists.“Idon’tseewhy, by choosing to raise and educate my children in Nigeria, that should equate that they shouldn’t be refined or exposed. We are raising refined African children.” ●

ART & LIFE

PHOTOGRAPHY

Lost negatives bring back the Ivorian miracle One man’s quest to rescue the work of photographer Paul Kodjo reveals the importance of archiving and documenting the continent’s postindependence history

n the forests of Ghana’s Western Region, close to Elubo, on the border of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, is the stilted wooden house that Ivorian-Ghanian photographer Paul Kodjo built for himself 20 years ago in Sowodadzem. Here he sits, surrounded by his family, or welcomes travellers to his guestrooms. Around Kodjo’s home there is little to indicate that he was one of the most revered photographers of a newly independent Côte d’Ivoire in the 1960s. As a photojournalist he documented and captured the “Ivorian miracle”, the early days of a country prospering and redefining itself, led by its first president, Félix Houphouët-Boigny. Now aged 76, it’s been years, he confesses, since he picked up a camera to do a reportage. Kodjo’s long-spanning career began with him working for and opening several photo studios across Abidjan, then working with agencies in the capital. But eager to grow in his craft, Kodjo wanted more. “I was inspired by Kwame Nkrumah and the Black Star Line [Ghana’s national shipping company] and Ghana Airways,” Kodjo recalls. “To see black men as captains of their own ships and planes made me feel like I could do anything.” In 1967 he left for Paris, where he became the correspondent for Fraternité Matin. He was one of the few black photographers to capture on film the May ’68 student and worker riots in the French capital. When he decided to return to Abidjan, after spending years participating in exhibitions and gaining a reputation and recognition in France, Kodjo was high in the hope that he would return

1 2

3 1 Over the course of his career Kodjo published a number of photo-essays. Image from Perdue et retrouvée, 1979. 2 As a young boy Kodjo was a self-taught analogue photographer, but in 1961 he joined Service Photo, an agency based in Abidjan, where he developed his skills in studio lighting and retouching negatives. 3 In 1974, he opened his own agency in Abidjan, Mamedis (Mass Media Service), embracing photography, cinema and publishing. Image from the photo-essay Deux femmes, un homme, 1971.

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ART & LIFE

to a hero’s welcome. But that wasn’t to be the case and promises of funding made to him by the country’s powerful leaders were not kept. So Kodjo set up his own media agency and had a stint teaching photography at the Institut National des Arts in Abidjan. Hethenturnedtocinematographywhere he enjoyed success with films such as Baby and Bouka, but eventually left for Ghana – where he had spent his formative years – in the 1990s.

ALL PICTURES BY PAUL KODJO

STORED IN A SUITCASE

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4 Few photographers had as much access to politicians as Kodjo did after Côte d’Ivoire gained independence from France in 1960. In this position, he was able to take exclusive pictures of the country’s first president, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, and his meetings with his French counterpart Georges Pompidou. 5 As the Paris correspondent for Fraternité Matin Kodjo would often accompany President Houphouët Boigny when he was on official trips in Europe.

In 2008 the Ivorian photographer Ananias Léki Dago visited Kodjo at his home in Ghana, 180km from the Côte d’Ivoire capital. By this time the older photographer had retired to his farm, and in doing so retired from his life’s work, putting it to the back of his mind, concentrating instead on building his lodge for homestays. Before Léki Dago left, Kodjo presented him with a suitcase of his old negatives of about 30,000 images, ruined by neglect and humidity. “WhenIopenedthesuitcase,” LékiDago pauses and shakes his head, “there were cockroachesandspidersrunningaround.” “Seeing Paul Kodjo’s work spoilt was like losing an important part of our history,” says Léki Dago who remembers, as a young teen, seeing Kodjo taking pictures in his neighbourhood, Cocody, in Abidjan. Moved by the gesture and the history behind the work, Léki Dago took on the project of restoring the negatives. But it would be another six years before he could bring himself to work on them. Last year, in 2014, with the support of the Goethe-Institut in Abidjan, he finally began the restoration and preservation process. “I see this as a kind of injustice,” Léki Dagos states. “You cannot dedicate your life to photography like he did and finish your career like that. Paul Kodjo’s story can be a case study in Africa of how we have to take care of our legacy.” He now hopes that the work will be exhibited around West Africa. As he watches his grandchildren play on his farm, full of the innocence of childhood, Kodjo smiles as though he holds a secret. “For me it was lost, I wasn’t thinking about photography anymore,” he says. “But if we can save some of them and if as Africans we can take charge ourselves, I think it’s great.” ● Billie Adwoa McTernan in Sowodadzem

LIFESTYLE BEHIND THE SCENES

TREND HUNTER CINEMA ON THE GO It’s 6pm in Biyem-Assi – a neighbourhood of Cameroon’s capital, Yaoundé – and the sun is slowly setting, leaving behind a greying blue sky. As twilight nears, a crowd gathers on a sports ground. Suddenly, the portable 3x4m cinema screen bursts into life with the flickering image of a Charlie Chaplin film. The children, who form the majority of the spectators, wail with laughter. Next up is Abril Despedaçado, a 2001 film by Brazilian director Walter Salles about feuding families in the Brazilian badlands. “It’s the first time I’m watching a movie on a big screen,” says 14-year-old Henry who is accompanied by his mother. “It’s a wonderful feeling.” There are no cinemas in Cameroon – at least, not in the conventional sense. But since 2012 Cinéma Numérique Ambulant (CNA) has shown 231 films in 208 towns to more than 120,000 people, the small team of presenter, projectionist and driver travelling around in their all-terrain vehicle. The organisation tends to draw larger audiences in rural areas. Young people show the most interest, with most of the cinema-goers under 35 years old. The CNA focuses on independent African films, which, ironically, are not widely distributed on the continent itself. Now it is diversifying with a new line-up of Brazilian films, which field coordinator Valerie Tchuente says helps “know and understand other cultures and movie traditions”. Other moves to bring cinema to the people include the Goethe-Institut’s monthly film club, where, after every movie, there is an interactive session between a film critic and the audience. Once or twice a year it also organises all-night movie projections. The rise of these interactive projects creates a bond between movie directors and local cinema-goers, which comes in handy when crowd-funding for film projects. ● Dzekashu MacViban in Yaoundé

WILLIAM NSAI

Danielle Eog Makedah The Cameroonian singer is making waves with the seductive blend of neo-soul, jazz and spoken word found on her album Peace, Love and Light What music are you listening to? Cameroonians on my playlist include Mr Sto, Edel Koulla, Sadrak, Chelo, Sissongho MCs and Gasha. I’m also listening to my sister Efya, Fokn Bois, Somi, Christian Scott, Lianne La Havas and Hugh Masekela.

Where are you hanging out? I spend a lot of time at home, cooking and baking. I also visit friends and I like natural places like gardens, mountains and the sea.

Which international musician would you like to collaborate with? Christian Scott because there is a lot of love and fever in his music! It highlights African blackness, his music is food for my soul.

What is your favourite book? Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet. I also love The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho which I’ve read about a hundred times. When I’m reading it I feel like it’s the book of my life.

What are your guilty pleasures? Cheese and pork. I find them irresistible. This is probably the legacy of French culture, which was my first culture – I was born in Paris and spent my childhood and part of my adolescence there.

What would you do if you weren’t a musician? I’d probably be a movie director, a visual artist, a fashion designer, an architect like my father, or a chef. ● Interview by Dzekashu MacViban THE AFRICA REPORT

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LIFESTYLE

Mauritius is great for relaxing, but to feel the heartbeat and bustle of this island trading nation don’t miss Port Louis

historical, multicultural city, Port Louis is crafting out a space in Mauritian tourism by bringing together old and new. By day a bustling financial hub, it changes tempo at night when office workers go home and bars and restaurants come to life. The gleaming high-rises of today’s virtual markets tower above the old colonial buildings of Port Louis’s trading past. At the heart of the city is the historical Place d’Armes. Lined with palm trees, the square joins the capital’s port to the grand Government House built in 1738. A few kilometres away is the Caudan Waterfront (1) – built in 1996 – which hosts a colourful permanent exhibition on Mauritius’s history. Here there are a number of bars where you can get your fill on good local beers. If you want to take home a few trinkets and souvenirs visit some of the craft shops around the harbour that sell the work of local artists. The Aapravasi Ghat (Hindi for immigration depot) is a UNESCO World Heritage site of particular interest to the millions of people around the world

GUENTER STANDL/LAIF-REA

Port Louis A crucible of culture

WILLY’S PICTURES/ULLSTEIN BILD VIA GETTY IMAGES

TRAVEL MAURITIUS

whose ancestors passed through here as indentured [free] labourers from India following the British abolition of slavery. For Mauritius’s population, the majority of whom have Indian heritage, the Aapravasi Ghat marks the beginning of their story on the island. Port Louis’s many places of worship testify to its multicultural mix. Brightly coloured Hindu temples such as the Kaylasson Tamil Temple (2) dot the city, while the St James Cathedral, which during French rule was storehouse for powder, displays old British architecture. Close to the city centre is the Jummah Masjid mosque, one of the biggest on the island. It is open for visits during the day, except on Fridays. When the sun goes down be sure to pass by to see it in its illuminated glory.

JEAN-PIERRE DEGAS/HEMIS.FR

The island’s diverse influences can also be enjoyed on a plate. Good Creole dishes, often based on a rougaille – spicy tomato sauce – are found all over Port Louis, while China Town purveys its own distinctive flavours on Royal Street. During the day the Central Market (3) is buzzing with traders selling fresh produce as well as textiles and souvenirs. Here you are sure to find some gems but be prepared for some haggling. There is fruit aplenty: besides pineapple and papaya, which can be found in many countries on the continent, market traders also sell passion fruit, starfruit, jackfruit and loquats to name but a few. If you’re looking for a sweet fruity kick try mango with chilli. You can also buy delicious street food here, such as dholl puri, a thin pancake made from lentil flour and crushed cumin seeds, served with red or green chilli sauce or several variations of curries. If you prefer upscale dining, L’Escale at the famous Labourdonnais Hotel on the Waterfront serves elegantly plated, locally influenced and Western dishes with a beautiful view of the ocean. ● Crystal Orderson in Port Louis

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DAY IN THE LIFE EXTRAORDINARY STORIES OF ORDINARY PEOPLE

MARC SHOUL FOR TAR

Home brew At House of Baobab in Johannesburg, Senegalese-born Talla Niang stirs up a melting-pot of tastes, sounds and arts to spread pride in African culture

came to Johannesburg from Dakar because of my cousin, who moved here to sell Senegalese art and drums. One day in 1998, as I was preparing to send him a shipment, he called to tell me that the musician Cheikh Lô would bring the things with him instead, as he planned to visit South Africa. I decided to travel with Lô to Johannesburg for what I thought would be just a month-long visit. Though I had been running one of my father’s hardware stores in Dakar, when I was not working I spent most of my time with artists. So it was only natural that I ended up staying in Yeoville – an area where artists and musicians from all over the world used to live. A friend and I started to organise Senegalese evenings with food, music and drumming in different spaces, like the House of Tandoor, the Supper Club and the Jungle Connection. We also hosted weekly dinners in my tiny apartment for people who shared our love for food, art and Africa. I also sat on the board of the newly built African arts and craft market in the suburb of Rosebank. Some years ago, after people had been urging me to open my own place, I opened House of Baobab in Maboneng in central Jo’burg. Though it has become a popular Sunday lunch hangout, it is much more than just a restaurant to me. What I really want to do – and have been doing since

I arrived in South Africa – is to change people’s perceptions about the continent. I want to establish a full-on panAfrican cultural centre with food, a gallery with high-end African art, a library with African books, a place where people can come for jamming sessions with visiting musicians, attend workshops or just meet people. My love for African diversity comes from growing up in a part of Dakar, which was a true melting pot. I would go to a Fulani naming ceremony in the morning, attend a Mandingo wedding in the evening and experience something else in between. I have continued to live that way throughout my life. One thing that I have learned is that it is not easy to sell Africa to Africans. That is why I believe in excellence. The people who come to House of Baobab today are not just pan-Africanists and expats. Instead, the majority are ordinary South Africans, who mostly do not really know much about Africa, but keep coming back for the ‘red rice’ (Jollof rice), and other dishes that they have come to love. It proves to me that it is all about branding, and also – unfortunately – all about the brain-washing that we have been exposed to that says that whatever comes from Africa is not up to standard. But we have managed to change people’s minds. Now they will say ‘It’s African, but it’s actually nice,’ and that is a huge shift. Africans need to start consuming Africa. We must buy our own art so it does not end up in European homes and museums again. We must support our musicians too. They should be the ones filling up sports arenas when they come to South Africa. Africa is a big market and that is how we have to start treating it, by promoting our talent among ourselves and building our African brand. ● Interview by Katarina Hedren THE AFRICA REPORT

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Meet the new generation of African entrepreneurs finding ingenious ways to turn their ideas into profitable business. Weekly, only on CNN International.

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