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New challenges, new directions GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE INTERNATIONAL EDITION

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People to watch, key data and analysis to guide you through the political and economic year ahead

CONTENTS

FREE with this issue: a “CHALLENGE” sponsored supplement on DRC. Not to be sold separately

54 country reports Double issue

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THE AFRICA REPORT # 76 - DECEMBER 2015-JANUARY 2016

Africa in

New challenges, new directions GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 7 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 50 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 35 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 8 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 FCFA

Africa in 2016 102 1 21 91 ART & LIFE A GUIDE TO 2016

FRONTLINE: WHAT TO WATCH IN 2016

From election fever and drone airports to drug-resistant malaria and plunging commodities prices, Africa is facing new challenges and opportunities.

Our experts whet the appetite for upcoming treats in literature, cinema, music, art, theatre and travel, plus reviews of 2015’s best albums, films and books and an exclusive interview with A. Igoni Barrett.

COUNTRY FOCUS

4 EDITORIAL Change the system, not the climate

53 ETHIOPIA When giants dance Investors from East and West are helping drive the economy

6 LETTERS 8 YEAR IN IMAGES 14 OPINION Stephen Chan 18 END OF YEAR QUIZ

BUSINESS

The Africa Report’s comprehensive political and economic analysis alongside key data and statistics to guide you through the year ahead, country by country.

ART & LIFE 92 BOOKS A. Igoni Barrett The Nigerian author of Blackass on the importance of helping African writers find their voices 96 LOOKING AHEAD Our guide to 2016 100 REVIEWS Our pick of the best of 2015

FRONTLINE 21 THE YEAR AHEAD What to watch in 2016 The key issues facing Africa, including our roundup of the bumper year ahead in elections

COUNTRY PROFILES 66 ELECTRICITY Who’s got watts?

POLITICS 32 DEMOCRATIC VOICES The people’s manifesto We speak to a host of people from across the continent to find their policy priorities for 2016 36 SOUTH AFRICA The heartland is burning 42 INTERVIEW South Africa’s former president Thabo Mbeki 50 OPINION Olusegun Obasanjo THE AFRICA REPORT

54 COUNTRY PROFILES

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72 CONSUMERS More bills than thrills 76 INTERVIEW Ade Ayeyemi, Ecobank 78 TAR DEBATES Democracy versus development DOSSIER – MINING 82 End of the supercycle The commodities crash takes its toll

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Your indispensible guide to the crucial economic and political events, and the people to watch, across Africa’s 54 countries throughout 2016 102 INTRODUCTION 107 SOUTHERN AFRICA 127 EAST AFRICA 147 CENTRAL AFRICA 161 WEST AFRICA 183 NORTH AFRICA

This issue carries an insert between pages 98 and 99 for selected countries

EDITORIAL

THE AFRICA REPORT A Groupe Jeune Afrique publication

BY PATRICK SMITH

Change the system, not the climate

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n a metro train hurtling across Paris during the climate summit in December, a printed note stuck to a door bore the words “Changeons le système, pas le climat”. As a call to action for the more than 150 leaders attending the negotiations, it would be hard to beat. And as so many people find themselves in states of siege after terrorist attacks in Beirut, Paris, Yola, Bamako and Kano, there is a growing belief that incremental tweaks cannot address such blights as grinding poverty, deepening inequality, religious and communal violence and catastrophic climate change. Sadly, there is little chance of the leaders listening to such calls. Take the core issues at the climate talks: our expectations have been lowered skilfully with each new round of consultations. Firstly, there was the insistence that a treaty putting limits on carbon emissions would be legally binding. That was abandoned as it became clear that few of the richest or most populous countries would accept that. Secondly, there was to be an agreed price put on carbon emissions. The implication of that was that rich countries would have to end the $600bn in annual subsidies to coal and oil producers and get more serious about alternatives. Thirdly, there was the call for a $100bn fund to promote green energy and additional funds to help poor countries adapt to climate change. The silence on that has been close to deafening. Yet, so far, only the most hardened eco-warriors are dismissing the Paris talks. This assembly of world leaders, each trying to carve a niche in history, should yield some forward movement but a bigger opportunity is

being missed. It recalls another grand conference in Paris, in 1919, when government and activist delegations worked for six months to restructure the world order in the wake of the First World War. For all the idealism that suffused that Paris conference – international edicts outlawing discrimination, the restoration of people’s land rights and the end of colonial If the climate domination – the result was a messy comtalks prove promise. Ignoring the anything, revolutionary imperatit is the ives of liberté, égalité et fraternité, delegates need for stuck to short-term a wholesale nationalist interests. And so they laid the upgrading foundation for the ecoof ambition nomic convulsions of the 1920s, the rise of fascism in the 1930s and another still more devastating global war in the 1940s. Governments again tried to remake the world in 1945, but the old global ruling class remained at the wheel. If the climate negotiations in Paris have proved anything, it is the need for a wholesale upgrading of ambition. Let the next round of global tractations tackle the economic and political underpinnings of the climate, poverty and security crises. They could start by changing the system – the agencies and institutions set up in 1945 – and making them representative of today’s world. It is a world in which Africa, China and India will host over half of the global population by 2050. Without radical change in these economic and political structures, we all risk a catastrophic rerun of Europe’s tragedies of the past century. ●

edit editorial@theafricareport.com

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M A R K E T I NG & D E VE L O P M E NT ALISON KINGSLEY-HALL E D I T O R I N CHI E F PATRICK SMITH M A NA G I NG E D I T O R NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com A S S I S TA NT E D I T O R CHARLIE HAMILTON A S S O CI AT E E D I T O R MARSHALL VAN VALEN E D I T O R I A L A S S I S TA NT OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI R E G I O NA L E D I T O R S PARSELELO KANTAI (EAST AFRICA) CRYSTAL ORDERSON (SOUTHERN AFRICA) TOLU OGUNLESI (NIGERIA) BILLIE ADWOA MCTERNAN (GHANA) S UB - E D I T O R S ALISON CULLIFORD ERIN CONROY P R O O F R E A D I NG KATHLEEN GRAY A RT DI R E CT O R MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER) SAMA DANAN CAMILLE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) P RO DUCT I O N PHILIPPE MARTIN CHRISTIAN KASONGO R E S E A R CH SYLVIE FOURNIER P HO T O G R A P HY PIERANGÉLIQUE SCHOULER ON LI NE PRINCE OFORI-ATTA SALES SANDRA DROUET Tel: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – Fax: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 sales@theafricareport.com CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 8 The Old Silk Mill Brook Street, Tring Hertfordshire HP23 5EF United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 - $60 - £35 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com D I F CO M INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS - FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19-60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com A D VE RT I S I NG D I R E CT O R NATHALIE GUILLERY WITH JEANNY CHABON R E G I O NA L M A NA G E R S ÉLODIE BOUSSONNIERE IBIJOKE FABORODE PASCALE LALLEMAND PRINTER: SIEP 77 - FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0720 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950-4810 THE AFRICA REPORT is published by GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

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MAKING THE MOST OF CHINA TIES

TOUGH TALK Democracy vs developmentt

> Buhari picks his A-team > SA’s first woman president? > The mobile data revolution

hina’s economic slowdown and its growing presence in Africa [‘When the dragon sneezes, does Africa catch a cold?’, TAR75 Nov 2015] serves a key role in inspiring the continent to reflect on its economic future. But Africa should do much more in order to experience convergence and to profit from the Dragon sneezes, relationship with China. African countries should Africa catches cold leverage on this relationship to diversity their economies, industrialise, climb up the value-added chain and promote regional markets. This relationship should be a serious consideration for African leaders tasked with the responsibility of shaping the continent’s future. African countries need to know upfront what they want from the Chinese. With inclusive institutions and incentives to further local interests, Africa could benefit from the relationship. For now it’s business as usual for win-win development. Martin Namasaka COMESA Business Council, Project Communications Officer, via email w w w.t he af rica repor t .c om

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‘LOW-COST’ PRIVATE SCHOOLS ARE NOT FOR ALL I was disappointed to see your article on low-cost learning and SPARK Schools [‘South Africa: Low-cost learning’, TAR74 Oct 2015]. Education has the potential to be the most powerful equalising force in any country but is undermined if access to education is stratified based on parents’ ability to pay. International human rights law is very clear about the requirement for primary education to be free and for free education to be progressively realised at other levels. Charging over $1,000 for a primary school violates this – and it is not “low

and Senegal has been a key target country. During this time we have seen horticultural exports to the European Union grow impressively from 9,605tn per year in 2001 to 71,371tn in 2014. The challenge is to maintain this growth in a competitive market while strengthening production and processing for local and regional markets. In this context there are many opportunities to capitalise on the progress made in export horticulture and extend this to benefit other sectors. Morag Webb, Policy Adviser, Europe-Africa-Caribbean-Pacific Liaison Committee (COLEACP) via email

HELP FOR THE AFRICAN START-UP SCENE

I think Africa should set up more venture capital firms that would provide capital to young tech entrepreneurs who have brilliant ideas David Archer, but lack the financial and logistical Head of Programme Development, resources to turn those ideas ActionAid via email into reality [‘The Question’, TAR74 Oct 2015]. African governments should also invest more in education, especially relating to technology. A DEMANDING MARKET FOR FRESH FOOD EXPORTS Our universities can and should be hubs of learning and innovating It was encouraging to read the technology. Africa should stop seeing agribusiness dossier on the technology as something Western. horticultural industry in Senegal It should take the technical segment [‘Senegal gets growing’, TAR74 Oct of its diaspora more seriously and seek 2015]. COLEACP has been providing for creative ways to involve them support to horticultural producers in the development of our technology. Maikel Ibia, via Facebook and exporters in Africa since 2001, cost” for the majority of South Africans. Let us not celebrate something that entrenches and exacerbates inequality.

HOW TO GET YOUR COPY OF THE AFRICA REPORT On sale at your usual outlet. If you experience problems obtaining your copy, please contact your local distributor, as shown below. ETHIOPIA: SHAMA PLC, Aisha Mohammed, +251 11 554 5290, aisham@shamaethiopia.com – GHANA: TM HUDU ENTERPRISE, T. M. Hudu, +233 (0)209 007 620, +233 (0)247 584 290, tmhuduenterprise@gmail.com – KENYA: NATION MEDIA GROUP, Antony Mutunga,+254 (0)72 15 19734, amutunga@ke.nationmedia.com – NIGERIA: NEWSSTAND AGENCIES LTD, Solomon Otinwa, +234 (0)709 8123 459, newsstand2008@gmail.com – SIERRA LEONE: RAI GERB ENTERPRISES, Mohammad Gerber, +232 (0)336 72 469, raigerbenterprise@ gmail.com – SOUTHERN AFRICA: RNA DISTRIBUTION, Butch Courtney, +27 (0)11 602 9800, butchc@mad.co.za • SUBSCRIPTIONS: RAMSAY MEDIA, Karin Mulder, +27 860 100 204, subs@ramsaymedia.co.za – TANZANIA: MWANANCHI COMMUNICATIONS, Emmanuel J Lyimo, +255 716 500 500, elyimo@tz.nationmedia.com – UGANDA: MONITOR PUBLICATIONS LTD, Micheal Kazinda, +256 (0)702 178 198, mkazinda@ug.nationmedia.com – UNITED KINGDOM: COMAG, Mark Swan, +44 (0)1895 433791, Mark.Swan@comag. co.uk – UNITED STATES & CANADA: LMPI, Sylvain Fournier, +1 514 355 5610, lmpi@lmpi.com – ZAMBIA: BOOKWORLD LTD, Shivani Patel, +260 (0)211 230 606, bookworld@ For other regions go to www.theafricareport.com realtime.zm – ZIMBABWE: PRINT MEDIA DISTRIBUTION, Ian Munn, +263 778 075 147, ianmunn@mweb.co.zw

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21-22 March 2016, Abidjan

4TH EDITION

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2016 will mark the fourth edition of the AFRICA CEO FORUM. Since its inception in 2012, the AFRICA CEO FORUM has established itself as the foremost event devoted to promoting the African private sector. Each year, the event brings together more than 800 worldclass CEOs, bankers and investors, cementing its reputation as a mustattend event for top African business leaders. A unique platform for thought-provoking discussions, the AFRICA CEO FORUM is an excellent opportunity for you to develop your business, shape your strategy and enhance your companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s competitiveness. theafricaceoforum.com Twitter: @africaceoforum - #ACF2016

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YEAR IN IMAGES Africa’s peoples shone in their determination to get a better future for their children, pushing back against third-term agendas and staying resilient in the face of terror

FEBRUARY MALEMA DRIVES THE AGENDA Lawmakers from the Economic Freedom Fighters disrupted the State of the Nation speech, demanding President Jacob Zuma answer questions about spending on his Nkandla homestead.

JANUARY TEAR-GASSING CHILDREN Police fired teargas at demonstrators - including pupils of the Langata Road Primary School in Nairobi, Kenya protesting against a land grab of the children’s playground by property developers. THE AFRICA REPORT

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YEAR IN IMAGES

CARL DE SOUZA/AFP

FEBRUARY CÔTE D’IVOIRE WINS CUP Defender Kolo Touré (centre) celebrates with Côte d’Ivoire teammates after winning the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations in a nail-biting 9:8 penalty shootout against Ghana in the Bata Stadium. The tournament was held in Equatorial Guinea after Morocco refused to host it due to fears over Ebola.

ERIC LAFFORGUE/GAMMA-RAPHO VIA GETTY IMAGES

RODGER BOSCH/AP/SIPA

FEBRUARY MORE GRAMMY GLORY Beninese singer Angélique Kidjo scooped her second Grammy music award at a star-studded gala in Los Angeles. She dedicated her gong for for her 2014 album Eve to “the women of Africa – to their beauty and resilience”.

THE AFRICA REPORT

FRAZER HARRISON/ GETTY IMAGES/AFP

DAI KUROKAWA/EPA/MAXPPP

MARCH EAST AFRICA’S LARGEST PORT Tanzania’s then President Jakaya Kikwete announced plans to build an $11bn port in his hometown of Bagamoyo. Construction work on the project, which will be East Africa’s largest port and is backed by Chinese finance, started in October.

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YEAR IN IMAGES

SUNDAY ALAMBA/AP/SIPA

JUNE LAST MAN STANDING In the wake of a poaching tragedy, Kenya’s Maasai Cricket Warriors launched a rhino-protection campaign with Sudan – the sole male of his species left on earth. THE AFRICA REPORT

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TONY KARUMBA/AFP

AUGUST NEW SUEZ CANAL Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi opened an expansion of the famous waterway, completed in just 12 months. The $8.2bn project will almost double the volume of traffic the canal can handle.

ZHANG FAN/XINHUA-REA

AP/SIPA

APRIL FIRST DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION FOR NIGERIA Former military general Muhammadu Buhari returned to the presidency at Aso Rock after becoming the country’s first opposition leader to unseat a sitting president. He beat Goodluck Jonathan with a campaign focused on combating corruption.

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YEAR IN IMAGES

GORAN TOMASEVIC/REUTERS

MAY COUP CAMPAIGN CRUSHED Amid vocal street protests in Burundi against President Pierre Nkurunziza’s plan to run for a third term, General Godefroid Niyombare led a military coup on 13 May. In only two days Nkurunziza was back, declaring that peace had returned, while military patrols suppressed ongoing anti-third term demonstrations.

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JEROME DELAY/AP/SIPA

NICOLAS FAUQUÈ/CORBIS

MAY, JUNE, NOVEMBER SURVIVING TERROR From the slaughter on the beaches of Sousse in Tunisia, the regular attacks by Boko Haram in Nigeria and the release of kidnapped girls, to the shootings in Paris and the attack on the hotel in Mali’s capital that bookended the year, it is clear that the war in Syria and northern Iraq has trained a new generation of terrorists. The concern now is that militants fresh from the Syrian conflict are in Libya and seeking to connect to groups in the Sahel. Africa’s struggle to contain the push from Islamic State will be one of the defining battles of the year ahead.

YEAR IN IMAGES

SOLAN KOLLI/EPA/MAXPPP

SEPTEMBER RAIL RECORD-BREAKER Ethiopia launched the first light railway system in sub-Saharan Africa in Addis Ababa. The network will carry some 60,000 passengers per hour when fully operational.

DANIEL HAYDUK/AFP

FRANCOIS PAULETTO/DEMOTIX/CORBIS

OCTOBER CHANGE AT THE TOP Former works minister John Magufuli became Tanzania’s president after a closely fought contest against opposition candidate and ex-prime minister Edward Lowassa, who defected from the ruling party.

DECEMBER NOT THE REAL DEAL The attempt at the Paris COP21 climate talks to hammer out an agreement to avert the worst of climate change fell short.

GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP

NOVEMBER PRAYING FOR PEACE Pope Francis began his first tour of Africa with visits to Kenya, Uganda and the Central African Republic. Amid tight security, the pontiff called for reconciliation between Christian and Muslim communities and an end to religious violence.

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OPINION S Stephen Chan Proffessor of international relations, School of Oriental and African Studies, UK

The fluid world of the 21st century

owards the end of his life, the Palestinian intellectual Edward Said declared that homeland was no longer important to him. He had spent his life as an exile, and he saw the violence and damage that a sense of place could create – especially when that space was contested by peoples who sought its sole ownership. Of course, Said was privileged. Instead of one place he had great mobility, travelling the world as an acclaimed thinker and activist. The refugee stranded in an arid encampment for displaced peoples might be forgiven for dreaming of a homeland as it once was. Or dreaming of a bold escape to Germany, through the razor-wired borderlands of Hungary; across the Mediterranean in leaking rubber dinghies; arriving on an island off Greece or Italy; or, finally, reaching Norway or Sweden as the northern European winter sweeps in and all around speak a language and have habits that are alien. Then that refugee will also, at least at times, dream of a home that no longer exists. The more he or she dreams, the more ‘home’ becomes mythological – so that, on the eve of 2016 we are all caught at a crossroads where the globe is a reality but contested by great political and economic powers that are beyond dreaming citizens; and where ‘home’, even for the most settled citizen, is bombarded in all directions by global influences and even global commands. If the IMF sneezes, half of Africa catches cold. Both the world at large and home become mythologies, where imagination has to salvage something that belongs to an individual. Even in Edward Said’s time, before the full impact of the global internet with its newsfeeds and social networks, the planet was globalised. Banks laundered money around the world, great military alliances bestrode continents, and huge supranational institutions ruled our lives as much as governments. Of course, the activities of these institutions have been heightened by new communications, and these same communication networks let us see that our lives are no longer contained in a single home – except insofar as the world can be electronically brought into our living rooms. Now, when affronted by the savageries of the world, we press a button to sign a protest and consider ourselves activists.

Around the world, citizens push buttons. Smartphone penetration ranks alongside GDP, per capita income, life expectancy and literacy as a development index. A peasant farmer in Kenya will send money with his app, and a pirate off the Somali coast will navigate with his own app – knowing that the ransoms he might gain can now be electronically paid and laundered a hundred times within two hours of first receipt. The world is beset by great corporations who establish headquarters in one country for tax purposes and conduct their volume trade in others. And franchising sweeps the world. A Big Mac will be found in Ramallah, Palestine, as readily as in Johannesburg. A global retail therapy has become the opium of the masses and it can be the same retail therapy, dependent only on whether Amazon or Alibaba has yet reached every once-faraway country.

The real advent of ‘homelessness’ is in crafting giant trading blocs Buttherealadventof‘homelessness’ – that sense of ‘it doesn’t matter where we live anymore’ – lies in the crafting of new gigantic trading and financial blocs. Both America and China are into this. The US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is a case in point; and the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was an instant challenge. Particularly as 2016 leads us towards the G20, to be hosted in China, all eyes will turn to the new financial institutions being crafted in one region after another by the Chinese. And these new funds and banks will finance great transport and communication corridors. They will transform Pakistan, the Transcaucasian Silk Road route, Brazil, and huge parts of Africa. The new Chinese model is not centred only on highways and railways, but electronic networks the length of THE AFRICA REPORT

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OPINION

the roads and rail. Once they command communications in as many parts of the world as possible, then there will be command of globalisation beyond what even economic command can deliver. So, what role for Africa in this new, amazing and of course disturbing world? South Africa is a member of the G20 – although a most uninformed and lacklustre member. There aren’t many experts on the G20 in either the South African Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the President’s Office. The African Union is granted attendance rights, but the AU is consumed by insurrections and political meltdowns across the continent. And those insurrections – someone, somewhere, has ordered the same fleets of Toyota and Nissan

The trick about handling globlisation is to balance one player against another flat-traypickups,mountedthemwiththesameBrowning machine guns, reinforced the trays in the same way to absorb the kickback of those guns (probably bolting down to the chassis), and given the same operational training to fighters as far apart as Mali, northern Nigeria, Central African Republic, Somalia – and of course Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Africa is part of a globalisation that is not often pretty. Slowly, there is an African participation in the new globe: South African capital finances cattle ranching in Sudan for export markets in China. But, more often than not, African countries are still on the receiving end of bad deals with multinational corporations.Zambiais sufferingfrom falling copper prices, but the meltdown in one big mining company, Glencore, was enough to turn a crisis into a catastrophe. The trick about handling globalisation, of course, is the ability to balance one player against another – just as, in the old Cold War years, one superpower could (sometimes) be balanced against another. Can there be a command of internationalism when the project of nationalism is not yet itself secure? This asks the wrong question. No one’s project of nationalism is yet secure. Catalonia and Spain? ScotlandandtheUnitedKingdom–never mindtheoldproblemofNorthernIreland? Who owns which part of the Ukraine? Will China and Taiwan ever arrive at a settlement? The twin projects of nationalism and internationalism need to be taken forward simultaneously. As for the shivering refugee from Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan or Syria who makes it through to Germany, and who gets papers, what will he or she do? Each one will look for a job. Each one will seek schools for the children. Each one will send remittances home. Each one will learn more than one language, more than one set of national habits, participate in more than one culture, seek to gain respect in a diasporic community while seeking success and acceptance in the host community. In a few short years each one will be a hybrid – Somali/German/European/ worldly. And their stories will be captured in videos and social media, just as the flight of their successors will be. And all will join a world story that puts into a mythological past this idea of homeland, this idea of safety in one place that is now everywhere destroyed. ●

Chinese companies are discovering the long-term benefit in Africa. In the past decade, investments from China into Africa have skyrocketed, placing the country squarely among Africa’s most valued partners. Not only has the Asian giant provided a stable market for Africa’s wealth of raw materials, but it is also playing a pivotal role in the continent’s development by building and upgrading vital infrastructure and providing the investment capital that helps to free up government revenues for the vital priorities of education and healthcare. To start with, since 2010, Africa has run a trade surplus, not a deficit, with China, which amounted to more than $9 billion last year. Total trade flows reached a record $222 billion, more than double the amount recorded in 2010, dwarfing the $10 billion seen in 2000. According to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during a visit to the African Union headquarters last year, the value of trade volume between China and Africa will swell to $400 billion by 2020. More importantly, he predicted that China’s FDI stock on the continent would rocket to $100 billion over the next five years, from its current $26 billion. This has also increased at an exponential rate over the past decade, as Chinese state-owned and private companies take on investment imperatives on the continent, which developed countries are shying away from due to their risk aversion. There are 2,500 Chinese companies invested in Africa at present, using debt and equity raised mainly from Chinese commercial and policy banks. These companies are pursuing the opportunities open to them on the continent despite the slowdown in their own economy and are partly responsible for Africa’s rapid pace of growth over the past few years, which has outstripped all other regions of the world, except for Asia itself. The China-Africa Development Fund (CAD Fund) has invested in more than 80 projects in 35 African countries, drawing billions of dollars of other investments from Chinese investors. Chinese information and communications technology brands, such as Huawei and ZTE, are providing telecoms equipment to African network operators and smart phones to consumers; China General Nuclear Power Holding Corporation is building what will become the world’s second biggest uranium mine in Namibia; and the China Exim Bank has provided most of the finance for a 609 km railway line, which will link Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan. Sinohydro has been involved in building more than 70 hydropower dams on the continent, while the China Communications Construction Company is behind numerous projects, including railways, airports and ports.

Another example of the increasing link between the regions is the recent financing covered by Sinosure (China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation) into Maamba Collieries Limited (MCL) in Zambia. The financing, provided by Barclays and Chinese commercial banks in partnership with development finance institutions, will enable MCL to complete the construction of two 150MW coal-fired power plants on the site of an existing coal mine, together with a new transmission line to connect them to the national grid. The project will contribute approximately 17% to Zambia’s installed electricity generation capacity and in the process unlock economic growth potential in the region where current electrification rates are just 20%. Chinese state-owned and private companies are also pumping money into factories to support Africa’s product chains and to upskill the human capital necessary to drive these industries through higher education, training and access to technology. Chinese companies have created thousands of African jobs in the process, and the trend is set to continue as the Asian giant moves part of its manufacturing base overseas to take advantage of lower labour costs. According to the World Bank, China’s cumulative investment stock in the manufacturing sector on the continent grew by 10% to $2.4 billion in 2011 and accounted for 15% of its FDI in 2013. Examples include the construction of a $100 million cement factory in Mozambique’s Maputo province and a shoe factory in Ethiopia, established by Chinese manufacturer Huajian. It is clear that Chinese corporates have begun to recognise that to reap the long-term benefits from Africa, they need to be long-term, sustainable investors – they must build value chains through strong relationships with local buyers, local suppliers, and most importantly, local governments. They know that doing business in the developing world today requires stewardship – namely, the communities in which they base themselves must be developed, and they cannot operate on an insular or silo basis. Investment in Africa is not just for a quick buck. Rather, it is about moving towards a long-term sustainable goal where you will get your long-term returns but you must also commit to the long-term benefit of the continent – an imperative recognised by Chinese and other Asian companies. In doing so, one of the world’s most important trade corridors is strengthened and socio-economic value is created on both continents. n

When ambitions change lives, we all prosper.

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QUIZ 15 Questions from 2015

CHRISTIAN LIEWIG/FEP/PANORAMIC

Think you’ve had your finger on the pulse of news across the African continent? Well, here is your chance to find out with The Africa Report news quiz. The first five people to answer all the questions correctly will receive a year’s free digital subscription to www.theafricareport.com. Please send your answers to quiz@theafricareport.com by 8 January 2016.

▲ Which country was thrown out of the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations tournament after it refused to host the event due to fears over Ebola? a) Morocco b) Equatorial Guinea c) Ghana Where were Ugandan rugby stars Benon Kizza and teammate Philip Pariyo, who vanished during the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow 2014, discovered playing for a small local team? a) England b) Scotland c) Wales

▲ In which country was the award-winning film about child soldiers Beasts of No Nation filmed? a) Ghana b) Angola c) DRC

The government of Burkina Faso was rocked by an attempted coup in September, but for how long did the turmoil last? a) Seven hours b) Seven days c) Seven weeks

Who replaced Donald Kaberuka to take over as the new head of the African Development Bank in September? a) Akinwumi A. Adesina b) Sufian Ahmed c) Cristina Duarte

Which president was ridiculed after he accidentally read the wrong speech at the opening of parliament? a) Abdelaziz Bouteflika b) Robert Mugabe c) Yoweri Museveni

minister taking charge of dayto-day affairs? a) Defence b) Agriculture c) Petroleum

Which international broadcaster was banned in Rwanda after airing a report on the 1994 genocide? a) BBC b) CNN c) Al Jazeera

How much did the Glencore share price fall over the past four years as world commodity prices crashed? a) 28% b) 48% c) 88%

Which Nigerian federal ministry will be directly supervised by President Buhari with a junior THE AFRICA REPORT

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LNP/REX SHUTTERSTOCK/SIPA

SHAWN GREENE

QUIZ

a) 1,000 b) 10,000 c) 100,000

RAND CORPORATION

â&#x2013;˛ Which country celebrated being declared free of the Ebola virus by the World Health Organisation on 7 November? a) Nigeria b) Sierra Leone c) Liberia

Mediators from which North African country won the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of their efforts

to continue reform after the Arab Spring? a) Tunisia b) Morocco c) Egypt

Which musician won the hotly-contested 2015 Ghana Music Awards Artist of the Year gong at the event in April? a) Sarkodie b) Shatta Wale c) Stonebwoy

Which household-name social media firm set up its first African office in 2015? a) Instagram b) Twitter c) Facebook

As of 15 November 2015, how many presidents have changed the constitution or are trying to change the constitution of their country in order to remain in office? a) 3 b) 4 c) 5

South African students forced a government U-turn on tuition fees by holding a series of street protests, but how many people took part in the demonstrations?

Students dents den

Micro Insur Mi Insurance nsura sur nce

Merchants Remittances ittanc itt ances Mobile M obile le Money oney

Chinaa Ch

Credit Cards Crowd wd funding g Du Duess Disbursements

Direct ectt Debit Debits bits

Salaries Sa

Fee Collecti Collec Collections Co ections

Cash

Farmers

Alumni Alu umni u mni

e-comm e-commerce ommerc ommerce omm

TThe he ffuture utu u ure of of PAYM PAY P AY YMEN Y M ME EN E N NTS PAYMENTS ECOW ECOWAS OWAS

Prepaid Cards

e-billing e-bill illing ing Pensions Pens Pensions Wallets Wall Wa llets ets

Utilities Uti iilities lities lit

Reconciliation Reconc Re oncili onc

Insurance Insur uranc nce Loans Lo

Micro pa Mi paymen payments yments ymen

Banks Ban ks Informal Inform In rmal al Sector S tor Security Secu ecurit curitty

Consumers Cons nsumer umer umers

Associations

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FRONTLINE

What to watch in

2016

The year ahead will be one of political suspense as several leaders with decades in power seek to hold on and the electoral calendar in the Democratic Republic of Congo looks impossible to respect. The Africa Report provides you with a guide to 2016 in terms of its technological innovations, threats to healthcare systems, changes in weather patterns and problems with debt and low commodity prices. By Charlie Hamilton, Billie Adwoa McTernan, Nicholas Norbrook, Patrick Smith and Marshall Van Valen THE AFRICA REPORT

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FRONTLINE | WHAT TO WATCH IN 2016

Plentiful polls across Africa in 2016, as old guard hold on to power at all costs

he year 2015 hosted a bumper crop of high-stakes elections, and 2016 brings more of the same. A major trend involves presidents seeking to hold on to power for as long as possible by almost any means necessary. The Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Chad and Uganda all have presidents with no immediate plans for retirement. Whereas the last three on the list have no constitutional term limits, the leaders of the two Congos will have to pull out all stops to stay around longer. The year 2015 brought violence as Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza crushed all opposition to his controversial third term and a brief coupinBurkinaFasocontinueditspostBlaise Compaoré transition; 2016 too could bring political turmoil. However, in many countries holding votes in 2016, opposition parties have struggled to gain a foothold. In Uganda, the police placed the opposition leader under house arrest in October 2015 to prevent him from holding political rallies. In Djibouti, the government has refused to implement the reforms that it agreed to with the opposition in order for it to call off its political boycotts. Meanwhile, in Ghana, the National Patriotic Party has been unsuccessful in getting the government to implement reforms to avoid the contestation and long legal battles that marked the late 2012 vote. South Africa will hold local rather than national elections in the year ahead, and the opposition has concerns about electoral fairness. In October, President Jacob Zuma appointed his adviser for special projects Vuma Mashinini to lead the electoral commission and replace Pansy Tlakula, who stepped down due to a corruption scandal. In late November, theconstitutionalcourtthrewoutsome local election results from 2013, showing Mashinini will have his work cut out for him to convince some parties that his closeness to Zuma will not influence electoral management. ●

GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP

Zambia ▲

President Edgar Lungu faces a tough election campaign due to copper mines shutting down and the resulting reduction in government revenue. His alliance with his former opponents in the Movement for Multiparty Democracy could help him to beat challenger Hakainde Hichilema, who took 46.7% of the vote in the presidential by-election of 2015.

Democratic Republic of Congo 3

Niger

The main opposition parties rejected the electoral calendar, but finally chose to federate against the ruling party. Nevertheless, the powers of incumbency a re l i ke l y t o p ro p e l P re s i d e nt Mahamadou Issoufou to victory in elections planned for February.

In late November, President Joseph Kabila maintained his policy of providing as little information as possible about his intentions for elections due to take place before the end of 2016 when he announced the launch of a national dialogue. The government does not have the funds or the logistical capacity to organise a series of local and other elections before the presidential vote in November 2016, and Kabila’s opponents and former allies argue that he is looking to use the crisis to stay in power for as long as possible. Kabila says that he will accept oppositionist Étienne Tshisekedi’s demand for international mediation in the political dialogue in the hopes of co-opting some members of the opposition.

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WHAT TO WATCH IN 2016 | FRONTLINE

ELECTIONS

2 5

1 5

Ghana 6

President John Mahama’s government has much riding on its ability to address the country’s electricity generation deficit before the late 2016 presidential election. The opposition National Patriotic Party (NPP) has been calling for a new electoral register, something that the electoral commission has so far opposed. The NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo is hoping to present himself as a change candidate like Nigeria’s Muhammadu Buhari.

Cyril Ramaphosa and African Union Commission chair Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma are the current frontrunners.

MIKE HUTCHINGS/REUTERS MICHAEL KAPPELER/EPA/CORBIS

Benin

With the country’s highly fragmented political spectrum, the competition is wide open to replace President Thomas Boni Yayi, whose government has struggled to fight corruption and meet its campaign promises. •

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South Africa ▲

The May 2016 local elections will be a litmus test for President Jacob Zuma’s African National Congress (ANC) government. The ANC has been losing members recently and the labour unions that make part of its tripartite alliance have been in turmoil. Local issues like service delivery are set to be the main topic of debate. The ANC will be hoping its electoral ground troops can be galvanised, while the Democratic Alliance under Mmusi Maimane and the Economic Freedom Fighters led by Julius Malema see the local vote as a key chance to build up support and win provinces away from the ANC ahead of polls in 2019, when the governing party is due to select a new presidential candidate. Deputy president

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Republic of Congo

So far, President Denis Sassou Nguesso has steamrolled through all opposition to his plans to change the constitution’s age limits and allow him a new term in office. Civil society groups have not been able to organise a repeat of what took place in Burkina Faso in 2014.

Chad

With low oil prices and the government scrambling to cut budgets and raise revenue, Chad will head to the polls in 2016. President Idriss Déby faces few strong challengers to continue what will be his 26 years in power next year.

THE AFRICA REPORT

4 7

Uganda

The defection of former prime minister Amama Mbabazi offers the opposition’s best chance of shaking President Yoweri Museveni’s regime. However, the Museveni regime, which turns 30 in January, shows few signs of weakness. Mbabazi and the Forum for Democratic Change leader Kizza Besigye have been unable to agree on a united opposition ticket, which offers the challengers the best chance of unhorsing the incumbent.

Djibouti

President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, in power since 1999, had promised to step down before 2016’s presidential vote, but he shows no signs of planning to follow through on that.

FRONTLINE | WHAT TO WATCH IN 2016

CHINA Perm

Helsinski

Krasnoyarsk

Moscow Rotterdam

Omsk

Duisburg

Novosibirsk Irkutsk

Astana

Paris Marseille

Venice Istanbul Athens

Tashkent Samarkand Tehran

Ulan Bator

Khorgos Almaty Bishkek

Beijing Lanzhou

Dushanbe

Xi’an Chongqing

Karachi

Fuzhou

Chuxiong

Kolkata

Hanoi

Silk Road routes 21st-century maritime Silk Road Maritime Silk Road continental extension Silk Road economic belt Northern corridor Central corridor Southern corridor Secondary routes

Colombo Nairobi

Shanghai

SOURCE: CHATHAM HOUSE

Kuala Lumpur

Railway routes Silk Route trains Trans-Siberian Railway

Jakarta

One belt, one road to tie Asia to Africa and Europe

hina’s President Xi Jinping is keen to leave a global legacy. In 2013, he launched the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) programme – a reference to the Silk Road responsible for the Middle Kingdom’s wealth in centuries past (see map). It involves lending developing countries money to build ports and roads on the condition that they contract Chinese construction companies to do the work. More than 60 countries are involved, representing a third of the global economy. The ultimate goal is a seamless road and rail network between China and Europe and improved maritime links with African countries. Africa is already feeling the first wave of investment, with East African rail networks relatively high on the priority list. This is a three-for-one for Beijing. First, OBOR is a handy way of recycling excess capacity, both in terms of commodities like steel, cement and aluminium, and of China’s vast foreign-exchange reserves. Next, it is a means of keeping China’s big construction companies busy now that much of the country’s heavy infrastructure

is complete. The soft loans-for-contracts deals act as a roundabout subsidy, something French policymakers will recognise from their own use of the Agence Française de Développement. Finally, OBOR will strengthen growth and demand in targeted countries. The idea is that consumers will then buy the televisions and cars still whizzing off Chinese factory floors. There are also sceptics. Some point to China’s debtto-gross domestic product ratio of 250%, or argue that OBOR will exacerbate China’s existing imbalances and make it harder to push the economy towards a more consumer-driven model, the government’s long-term goal. What OBOR does give Beijing is global heft. The setting up of three institutions – the Silk Road Fund, the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – all point to a growing role for China in setting the direction for the global economy. Unsurprisingly, decisions are often influenced in the direction of the guy financing strategic infrastructure, which the West has been benefiting from for decades. ● THE AFRICA REPORT

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FOSTER+PARTNERS

No pilot, no problem

ngineers are due to break ground on the world’s first civilian cargo drone station in Rwanda in 2016. The country’s civil aviation authority is already drafting regulations concerning the use of unmanned vehicles. Architecture firm Foster + Partners has submitted artists’ impressions (pictured) of how the drone facility could look. If the pilot project is successful, a wider programme could be rolled out across the country and an additional 40 drone airports could be constructed. ●

The morning after the night before

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7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2002 03 04

Sub-Saharan Africa’s key exports (% of total exports) Others Agricultural commodities Fuel Minerals and metals Manufacturing commodities

10 37

13 27 20

49 12 10

7 2001-2004

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2010-2014

Metals price index (2002 = 100) Aluminium Copper Iron ore Nickel

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Bond issues by country (US$ million) 8,000

Angola Côte d’Ivoire Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Kenya Mozambique

7,000 6,000 5,000

Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Seychelles Tanzania Zambia

6,250 5,100

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, FT, DEALOGIC

Bond issuing nearly doubled from $6bn in 2012 to $11bn in 2014. Many bonds are priced in foreign currencies, and countries with dollar-denominated debt worry a strengthening greenback will increase the cost of repayment. The Overseas Development Institute is predicting the stronger dollar could cost sub-Saharan Africa an extra $10bn, amid analyst fears that a China slowdown will cost repayment headaches. ●

(US$ million)

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, FT, DEALOGIC

COMMODITIES

Africa’s sovereign bond issue

SOURCE: WORLD TRADE INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS

frican countries building infrastructure with funds raised by issuing sovereign bonds seemed like a great idea when commodity prices were high. Now, as revenue from oil, copper and other minerals has shrunk, fears over the continent’s capacity to service its debt repayments have soared.

SOURCE: IMF, PRIMARY COMMODITY PRICE SYSTEM

DRONES

4,000 3,000

2,498

2,000 1,000 0

1,500

1,750

200 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

FRONTLINE

Potential crop catastrophes

rought for some, devastating rains for others: the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) estimates that 11 million children in East and Southern Africa are at risk of hunger and disease due to the weather phenomenon known as El Niño, caused by high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. As UNICEF reports, the impact of weather changes could be brutal: “Many of the countries that face the gravest threat from climate change are the same ones now bracing for the brunt of El Niño.” Ethiopia is already facing the worst drought in 30 years. South Africa’s Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal provinces have been the worst hit, and there will be no grain exports to Botswana and Swaziland. Ethiopia says the government is ferrying food to areas prone to famine and Kenya has started to build camps for displaced people. ●

EL NIÑO LEON SADIKI/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY

INVESTMENT Africa’s new class pyramid

Upper class

More than $20/day

Upper middle class Lower middle class

Less than $2/day

Long-termers to be rewarded

Between $10-$20/day

Between $4-$10/day

“fFoating class”

Between $2-$4/day

20%

60% Population living below the poverty threshold

30 SOURCE: AfDB

of global business regulatory reforms in 2014-15 took place in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the World Bank. Members of the Organisation pour l’Harmonisation en Afrique du Droit des Affaires (OHADA) were particularly active, with 14 of their 17 West and Central African economies improving their business climate.

frican companies with an early-mover’s advantage and a deeper understanding of local market dynamics could benefit from a shift in international focus in 2016 as investors turn away from emerging markets amid planned rises in interest rates in the US. While Switzerland-based agribusiness is dialling back its African investment (see page 72) because it has found that the middle classes are not growing rapidly, other firms see the next few years as crucial to Africa’s economic prospects. In June, Morocco’s Saham Assurance and BMCE Bank of Africa announced that they had formed an alliance to offer joint banking services and insurance products in the African countries where the two companies operate. For its part, South Africa’s ShopRite sees the potential of the Nigerian market. In August, chief executive Whitey Basson said that the supermarket will open 14 new Nigerian stores and a distribution centre within the next year and a half. The firm also has its eyes on the Angolan retail sector. In construction, Nigeria’s Dangote Cement is continuing its continental expansion. It has plans to open a new plant in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2016 and another in Kenya in 2017. ●

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LIBYA

WHAT TO WATCH IN 2016 | FRONTLINE

IS rebels swoop on divided state

he worsening confrontation in Libya is being fought militarily, politically and commercially, and will have consequences far beyond the country’s borders in 2016. Islamic State (IS) militants have been exploiting this crisis, with Western intelligence officials reporting the organisation is building up quickly in Libya. Already, the battle between the internationally recognised government in Tobruk and the General National Congress coalition in Tripoli – under the control of sundry Islamist factions – has effectively partitioned the country. The Tobruk government has reached an agreement with the United Arab Emirates to sell Libyan oil independently of Tripoli, and the two sides are battling for control of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, with well over $100bn at stake. More dissident groups have emerged in recent months, complicating the work of the United Nations team trying to negotiate a power-sharing deal. So far, five deadlines for a political agreement have passed without any substantial progress. Without a deal, divisions between the

TRIPOLI

Sabratha

western region of Tripolitania and the east’s Cyrenaica are deepening. Meanwhile, political factions in the south are choosing alliances on an ad hoc basis. Several intelligence reports suggest that IS may be moving its key people by sea to the coastal city of Sirte in Tripolitania as Western military forces step up their bombing of its main base of Raqqa in Syria. The Iraq- and Syria-based militia has a working relationship of sorts with some Islamist groups in the Tripoli government. By mid-November, IS was reckoned to have at least 2,000 fighters in Libya, most of whom were in the east nearer to the border with Egypt. Some of the group’s combatants appear to be targeting Adjabiya, a strategic city on the route between some of the main oil fields and export terminals. Not only will the group’s growing strength in Libya allow it to intensify operations in North Africa, but it will position it to push further south into the Sahel. There, it could co-opt the jihadist groups already threatening security in Mali, Niger and Mauritania. ●

Derna

Mediterranean Sea

Misrata

TUNISIA

TOBRUK Benghazi

Sirte Nofaliya

Ajdabiya

EGYPT

Sabha

ALGERIA

Ubari

Kufra

from sub-Saharan Africa

200km

NIGER

The threat of Islamic State (IS)…

…in torn Libya ACTORS

Territory controlled Sphere of influence

Parliament of Tripoli (General National Congress)

Influx of fighters from Syria, Iraq and sub-Saharan Africa

Parliament of Tobruk (Recognised by the international community)

American air strikes against IS on the night of 13 and 14 November THE AFRICA REPORT

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Jihadist stronghold

WHAT’S AT STAKE Zone:

Oil fields

Tuareg,

Oil pipelines and gas mains

Tubu,

Roads

Amazigh

Arms dealing

SOURCE: LE MONDE, AFP, CRISIS GROUP, INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR

from the Iraqi and Syrian fronts

FRONTLINE | WHAT TO WATCH IN 2016

NIGERIA’S OIL

ith oil accounting for 95% of exports in Africa’s biggest economy, Nigeria’s state oil company faces its biggest shake-up ever. Ending rackets estimated to cost more than $20bn a year is the top priority for President Muhammadu Buhari. He was elected in March 2015 and has been struggling with a 50% fall in oil prices. The reform campaign will be an historical reckoning: Buhari helped to found the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in 1977 when he was oil minister in a military regime. He speaks of his frustration at seeing the chaos and corruption at the corporation since then. A sweeping reform in the shape of the Petroleum Industry Bill has been stuck in the national assembly since 2008, blocked by heavy lobbying from local and foreign vested interests. This mega-bill aims to make the giant company more accountable by splitting up its policy and commercial functions as well establishing an independent regulator for the oil and gas industry. It would also allow the NNPC to fund its operations by raising cash on local and foreign money markets instead of relying solely on the state budget. This requires full transparency and independent audits of the corporation’s estimated $100bn in annual revenue. Now the government’s plan is to break the reform bill into different sections: the first, due in early 2016, will establish separate NNPC units for oil and gas production (upstream activities) and refineries and petrochemical plants (downstream). Two massive new refineries, to be financed commercially, are in the works. The next stage of the reforms, due later in the year, aims to help raise much of the $50bn needed to boost gas production, which will power most of the new private power stations. ●

Taking on the oily-garchs Nigeria’s new look NNPC Political controls

Contractual relations

Regulatory controls

2015

MUHAMMADU BUHARI President and minister p of petroleum

EMMANUEL KACHIKWU M Minister of state for ppetroleum

Department of petroleum resources

NNPC – Directors and management NNPC – Upstream oil production Oil companies (international and Nigerian)

NNPC – Downstream oil production (refineries, petrochemicals and gas subsidiaries) NNPC – Oil and gas ministry regulation

2016

MUHAMMADU BUHARI President and minister of petroleum p EMMANUEL KACHIKWU M Minister of state for ppetroleum

Department of petroleum resources

Independent oil and gas industry regulator

NNPC Directors and management

NNPC Upstream

Privatised downstream companies

NNPC Downstream

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Oil companies (international and Nigerian)

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ANIMATION

EVCL STUDIOS

Drawn in Africa

frican animators’ time has come. After being overlooked for decades, with traditional film a preference for investment, its commercial potential is starting to be tapped by advertising agencies, and artists are finding more opportunities to make a sustainable income from their creations. A growing number of homegrown studios are developing and establishing themselves competitively so that animators, graphic designers and other artists no longer have to cross the world to work at high-quality studios. South Africa’s Triggerfish is one studio that is shifting gears. In 2016, it will launch Triggerfish Story Lab, an 18-month mentorship programme for feature film and television scriptwriters with a R42m ($3m) prize partly funded by Disney. The venture marks another step towards creating and showcasing more diverse stories from across the continent. Filmmaker Wanuri Kahiu from

Kenya and Nigerian-American author Nnedi Okorafor’s partnership on two features – Zahrah the Windseeker and The Camel Racer – has landed them on the shortlist. Cartoons for children – like Bino & Fino, by Nigerian animation studio EVCL – are providing a more relatable reflection of the children they seek to entertain and educate. Even star duo P-Square have plans to dip their toes into animation with their cartoon for kids, The Alingos. In October 2015, the second West African Gaming Expo was held in Lagos with the aim of developing more local talent and encouraging stories related to the environment in a city that is bubbling with animation studios. In Cameroon, Kiro’o Games – Central Africa’s first games studio – had a successful Kickstarter campaign to fund its debut, Aurion: Legacy of the Kori-Odan. Gamers and game makers will be keeping an eye on its much-anticipated launch in the first half of 2016. ●

Threats call for extra vigilance

IMGUR.COM

s Guinea entered the final countdown to be classed Ebola-free by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in late 2015, scientists were already warning of new threats to the continent’s fragile healthcare systems. A study published in the journal Nature Communications warned that a drugresistant malaria parasite, which has spread rapidly through Southeast Asia, was able cross the species barrier from Asian mosquitos to Africa’s dominant species, Anopheles coluzzii. Epidemiologists fear a rapid spread of the parasite, which has rendered the world’s primary anti-malarial drug, artemisinin, useless.

HEALTH

As if the prospect of one pandemic was not enough, new research into Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), found that almost half of Kenya’s population of camels were infected.Last year, the WHO warned that Africa needed to defend itself better against an outbreak of MERS, for which there is no vaccine or treatment, citing concerns that African pilgrims participating in the Hajj in Saudi Arabia could return with the disease. Shouldahuman-to-humanstrainmutate with one carried by Kenya’s camel population and spread, the coronavirus could become “a threat to the entire world,” the WHO reports chillingly. ●

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WHAT TO WATCH IN 2016 | FRONTLINE

CALENDAR 2016 OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA 26-28 January

AfDB ANNUAL MEETING 23-27 May

LAGOS | NIGERIA offshorewestafrica.com

LUSAKA | ZAMBIA afdb.org

CORPORATE COUNCIL ON AFRICA SUMMIT 1-4 February

AFRICA ENERGY FORUM 21-24 June

CAINE PRIZE FOR AFRICAN WRITING July

INVESTING IN AFRICAN MINING INDABA 8-11 February

OXFORD | UK www.caineprize.com

CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA miningindaba.com

POWER-GEN AFRICA 19-21 July CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA powergenafrica.com

AFRICA CEO FORUM 21-22 March ABIDJAN | COTE D’IVOIRE theafricaceoforum.com

AFRICA-SINGAPORE BUSINESS FORUM August

NTH

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ON AFRICA 11-13 May

SINGAPORE https://www.asbf.sg

KIGALI | RWANDA weforum.org

UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY 13-26 September

AFRICAN INSURANCE ORGANISATION CONFERENCE 8-11 May

NEW YORK | US un.org

AFRICA HOTEL INVESTMENT FORUM

MARRAKECH | MOROCCO african-insurance.org

ZHAI JIANLAN/XINHUA-REA

LONDON | UK africa-energy-forum.com M

ADDIS ABABA | ETHIOPIA summit.africacncl.org

AFRICAN UNION SUMMIT 28-30 January ADDIS ABABA | ETHIOPIA Perhaps Zimbabwe’s president Robert Mugabe has been softened by his year as chairperson of the African Union: as he bows out at the 26th summit, in January 2016, the organisation launches its “Year of Human Rights with a Special Focus on the Rights of Women”. The application of human rights frameworks in conflict resolution will top the agenda, as will the fight against terrorism.

5-6 October KIGALI | RWANDA africa-conference.com

WORLD BANK/ IMF ANNUAL MEETINGS 7-9 October WASHINGTON DC | US imf.org

AFRICA OIL WEEK 31 Oct. – 4 Nov. CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA oilgas-events.com

AFRICA COM 15-17 November CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA africa.comworldseries.com

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS A bumper year for elections lies ahead. In 2016 exactly a third of Africa’s 54 countries will go to the polls to elect heads of state – a population that, if it stood in a single line waiting to vote, would almost encircle the globe! The application of democracy is impressive, but will this be the year of regime change too? In Uganda (February), Chad (April), Congo-Brazzaville (July), Gabon (August), Equatorial Guinea (November) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (November), long-running leaders have theatened to run again, but who knows what the future may hold? For our election roundup see page 22. THE AFRICA REPORT

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2016 manifesto The people’s

From Cape Town to Casablanca, The Africa Report took the continent’s temperature, talking to everyone from shoe sellers to politicians and financiers to identify their policy priorities and what issues they want to see making headlines in 2016 By Celeste Hicks in Rabat, Billie Adwoa McTernan in Accra, Crystal Orderson in Cape Town, Jeff Mbanga in Kampala, Reinnier Kazé in Yaoundé, Elias Meseret in Addis Ababa and Nicholas Norbrook

hen the angry crowds overthrew the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt inearly2011,themessage to tyrants worldwide was clear – when the people have had enough, you will go. Similar ‘red cards’ have been brandished in Senegal and Burkina Faso since then. And even if there is a hard core of constitutiontampering presidents keen to cling on to power at all costs, the majority of African governments are now far more attuned to the desires of their populations than in previous decades. So what do the people want? We asked correspondents in Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Morocco, South Africa and Uganda to speak with people from all

walks of life: farmers and businessmen, politicians and security guards, housewives and pharmacists. And even though these are just 50 Africans interviewed out of more than one billion on the continent, the results are remarkably consistent. All talk about the need for better public services, be they reliable and cheap buses to get them to work or health and education provision, which everyone agrees are essential for a modern and forward-looking Africa to take full part in the century ahead. All talk about the end of impunity. Corruption weighs heavily on their minds, while some see progress and others backsliding. Almost in the same breath, they mention security – personal security, the need for peace and an end to corruption in the police.

All talk about the need for greater political dialogue. In the new era of smartphones and mass mobilisation, politicians cannot simply preach from on high. They need to talk to each other, too, tackling serious regional and national questions before they boil over into conflict. And forefront in everyone’s minds is the urgent need to create more jobs and reboot faltering economies. Health services are near the top of the priority list. Célestin Djamen, an opposition politician in Cameroon from the Social Democratic Front, calls for universal healthcare – a call echoed by compatriot Vaksa Hakda, a student and shoe seller in Yaoundé, who says: “You have to pay for public hospitals, and few get bills reimbursed.” Gerald Ataremwa, a graphic designer from Uganda, suggests better health insurance is a good halfway house between a free public service and costly private clinics: “I don’t care if I have to pay for it.” FAILED BY PUBLIC SERVICES

Soumia Amrani, a Moroccan mother of three, wants her government to look out for those often ignored by planners in the health services. “I am disappointed. My daughter, who is aged 22, is autistic. I haven’t seen any attempt to set up new services for disabled people.” ● ● ●

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ILLUSTRATION BY YASMINE GATEAU FOR TAR

POLITICS

● ● ● Education is also a key desire. What Africa wants Andrew Muhimbise, a fund manager in Uganda, argues that many people rePUBLIC SERVICES While the fight over who main unemployable because they lack should pay will continue, getting transport, the right skills: “We need to break this water and power fixed is a top priority. idea that a technical path is for losers!” Again, the question of who should DIALOGUE People are tired of echopay for education is at the forefront of chamber politics – they want leaders concerns. Those who can flee the public who will listen to them, but also politicians school system. Sana El Ouali of Morocco, able to talk to each other regardless who works for a development bank, comof party lines and national boundaries. plains: “We all have to send our children to private schools because the public CORRUPTION A call for an end to impunity schools are so bad.” reverberates across the continent with It is also clear that government services impatience and anger rising, and it reaches need to be joined up. “Some months ago, from the home right up to the head of state. the vice-president’s wife went to donate some computers to a school that didn’t SECURITY Time for African governments even have electricity,” says Ghana’s Nii to put this at the top of their agenda. Ayertey Aryeh, an activist. “They didn’t Repairing Africa’s police forces is a good even have chalk.” His compatriot, Kofi place to start and the judiciary next. Owusu-Ansah, the owner of Republic Bar and Grill in Accra, agrees: “Without JOBS From improving the business power how can we educate our children? climate to delivering on regional economic Our kids can’t study in the dark.” integration deals, there is a backlog The need for governments to be more of actions to be taken in order to deliver responsive to their citizens is clear. But desperately needed jobs. there are calls from the grassroots for political dialogue at the top, too. For Ethiopian banker Biniam Major, “the major problem the country is facing right And nepotism is a recurring theme. now is the lack of respect for dissenting “We need to stop centralising money opinion at the higher political levels”. and power,” says Ronald Tashobya, a He says that having a real opposition Ugandan businessman. “Unless you party in parliament would “solve food know someone who knows someone, security and other related problems”. you cannot do much in this country” ForGhana’sAryeh,astrongdemocracy – and, indeed, the same appears to be is important. But it could be tweaked, true in all six of our surveyed countries. giventhecontext:“Ourinstitutions are not so strong. So “Without power, how can we wheneverthereisachangeof educate our children? Our kids power, everything comes to can’t study in the dark” a halt. There is so much acrimony between the parties. I would advocate for a longer term [for Some are optimistic. In Morocco, sepresident].” That way, he says, you would curity guard Hamid Ayachi applauds get fewer “vote-winning white elephants”. the governing Parti de la Justice et du Développement’sapparentlackofcorrupNEPOTISM, TRIBALISM tion. “For example, the current minister Politicians also need to stop stoking of transport has a brother who tried to trouble. “Some Kenyan friends are worbuild on some land illegally. The police ried that tensions [between Uganda’s came to stop him. He called his brother, President Yoweri Museveni and his rival but his brother wouldn’t help. That is AmamaMbabazi]couldleadUgandainto important to many Moroccans.” the kind of chaos Kenya saw in 2009,” More often, views are less sanguine. Ethiopia’s Biniam sees corruption in the points out fund manager Muhimbise. Fellow Ugandan William Opar, a security health and education system, “which guard, says “the government’s habit of amounts to gambling with the lives of the favouritism, nepotism and tribalism” is next generation”. Fellow Ethiopian Girma Waku says: “I hear that it is rampant in exacerbating the situation. the land administration. […] I realise Corruption is one of the first issues also that there are some unfair practices out of the mouths of our respondents.

in fertiliser distribution procedures.” He does, however, praise his government on the whole: “There used to be a time when I struggled to feed my whole family, but now I’m comfortably providing for all of them. This is due to the great support that we are getting from the government in terms of accessing loans for fertiliser and other inputs.” There is no such luck in South Africa. Steven Swart, a politician with the African Christian Democratic Party, points to a “high level of fraud and corruption in procurement by state departments”. LINING POCKETS

It is a similar story in Ghana: “They should stop using the country’s money for their personal stuff,” says musician WanlovtheKubolor.InCameroon,Hakda points out: “[There is] frequent theft of public money and many ministers and ex-ministers and heads of state enterprises who are banged up in prison for their presumed thievery.” For her compatriot Claude Assira, a lawyer, the country needs “a new horizon – a new moral and ethical compass”. The Republic’s Owusu-Ansah agrees: “We need to be more accountable as a people, and that starts from government all the way to the average person.” Many respondents in South Africa say they would prefer the government to prioritise personal security over issues like nationalising the country’s mines. For Ayachi in Morocco, a former policeman, the police are part of the problem. “If you call them, they won’t come. There are also too many thieves and bad people on the streets and not enough police.” Food security is just as important for many. In Ethiopia, our respondents on the whole call for a greater focus on food rather than political pluralism. “In Ethiopia, fulfilling food needs is the missing element – I struggle to get everything I need,” says a lecturer at Mekelle University who requests anonymity. “The question of food sufficiency has a lot more relevance to me than having an opposition party in parliament.” The link between security and jobs is made by South African barista Luvuyo Sizani, who says: “Unemployment is the big issue.” Fixing the economy – and thereby creating jobs – is another big priority for the citizens who contribute to our ‘People’s Manifesto’. This starts at the top, with the business environment created by the politicians. “The heaviness of government regulation

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hasgiventheCameroonianeconomyfeet of lead,” says shoe vendor Hakda. Though many trumpet reform in, say, regional integration, the results are not evident.“DoingbusinessinUgandaisstill as hard as it was before all those common market protocols were signed,” says businessman Tashobya. “They are collecting dust on government shelves. Just look at the controversies like that between Uganda and Kenya over the day-old chicks, where Kenya imposed all sorts of licences.” South Africa’s Swart agrees, saying that what business wants more than anything is certainty: “The recent [Kenyan/Tanzanian] visa regulation debacle illustrates how policy uncertainty negatively affects economic growth – in this case of the tourism industry.” A FARMING REVOLUTION

The cost of power, water and accessing finance are cited across the board. For some, the focus should be on the sector where the majority of Africans are employed, in the fields and farms that stretch across the continent. “We need an agriculture revolution,” says Samia Nkrumah,

Swart wants more heft given to a daughter to the country’s founding crime-fighting agencies. Muhimbise president and a leader of Ghana’s Con– the Ugandan fund manager – wants to vention People’s Party. “The majority of end Africa’s ‘giveaway’ tax holidays, while our farmers are small-scale. They need our university lecturer in Ethiopia wants capacity building and access to loans.” Others, like Wanlov,point tothestrategies politicians to see beyond the capital city. that Samia’s father put in place more than This is echoed by Morocco’s Ayachi: “The 50 years ago: “If these parties that have government needs to expand infrastructure development to other parts of the been changing over and over stuck with [Kwame] Nkrumah’s plan, Ghana would country and to the peripheries of Addis be in a much better place.” The many people sur“We have to sort the justice veyed for this manifesto system and ensure that the have plenty of suggestions punishment fits the crime” that policymakers should pay attention to. Ugandan Ababa. And that infrastructure needs to graphic designer Ataremwa says there should be fewer members of parliament. be sound. There are many buildings that According to him, only 20 out of the 300 are constructed without proper foundsitting legislators are active: “The rest ations and we often hear about them earn money for nothing”. Raising the collapsing and injuring people.” heat on wrongdoers is important for Pat But, ultimately, good ideas are not Fahrenfort, a South African author. “We enough; so much hinges on delivery. As Fahrenfort says: “The African National have to sort the justice system and ensure that the punishment fits the crime.” Congress has developed very good Cameroonian oppositionist Djamen puts policies. Until they reach the implementforward “tax breaks for young companies ationstage,myoptimismremainspegged for at least two years”. on the washing line.” ●

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EFF supporters took to the Johannesburg streets in October

SOUTH AFRICA

The heartland is burning

Student and worker protests in Gauteng suggest the ruling ANC may be losing its grip on the country’s richest province ahead of next year’s local elections

t is the year of the student revolt. First, testers had won and the government had in Cape Town the students took to the backed down, there was a heavy police streets with one aim and one slogan: presence on the campuses in Gauteng. “Rhodes must fall.” And fall, Rhodes did Students were preparing for exams – at least the statue of the arch-imperialist but many hit out at the ruling African was finally dragged off by a crane in April. National Congress (ANC) for its handling of the protests on fees and workers’ conIt had perched somewhat incongruously in the grounds of the University of Cape ditions. The campaigners highlighted Town, which had prided itself as a basthe situation of workers on contracts tion of liberal and progressive thinking. with private companies hired to run university services. Some workers comThis victory whetted the appetite plained they face a double threat: the of the students. Six months later, they private companies had been pushing launched a much more politically significant campaign against the government’s plan to ‘Born frees’ have seen massive raise tuition fees at univerchanges in their lifetimes sities and the universities’ and have higher expectations treatment of workers. This time, the protests down their wages and the workers had started in Gauteng, South Africa’s richest and most populous province. The nerve to pay higher fees for their children centre of the campaign was at the Unito attend college. versity of Witwatersrand, with its main We spoke to 20-year-old Lerato campus in Johannesburg. As the protests Lehoko and 19-year-old Hlonepho took off, so did the police response. Phakoe from Soweto, both second-year students at Wits. They felt ignored and Officers fired tear gas and stun grensaid they would vote against the ANC ades, sparking pitched battles. in next year’s local government elecIn November, the universities still seemed under siege. Although the protions. “We are going to vote, but the

ANC disappointed us. They have been taking us for a ride,” said Lerato. “The student uprising will impact on the way students will vote. It’s not just the party, but the system, that I am disappointed with,” added Hlonepho. TIPPING POINT

Lerato and Hlonepho are ‘born frees’ – people born after South Africa had its first democratic election in 1994 – and the ANC is the only government they have known. Although they have seen massive changes in their lifetimes, they have higher expectations that are thwarted by inequality. They are furious about the barriers poor people face going to university. “This is the tipping point. Things are going to get messy, and students are going to be at the forefront of change,” said Lerato. Several other students echoed such sentiments. “They didn’t take our protest seriously. We youth are the majority in the country, and we will bring about change in some way or the other,” another student commented. The ANC was shocked by the protests in Gauteng and among students ● ● ●

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elsewhere. It eventually moved to cut a deal, giving the campaigners a symbolic victory. The students’ cause was celebrated across the working class in the province, which demands the freeeducation and jobs that the ANC had promised. Even longtime ANC loyalists no longer take victory for granted in Gauteng in next year’s local elections. In a frank assessment at the party’s National General Council, secretary general Gwede Mantashe said that the ANC would “suffer a psychological impact” if it should lose the province. ANC activists in Gauteng know the student revolt has hit their support base. Professor Susan Booysen, a political scientist at Wits University, says the student revolt has mobilised many other groups: “There is a much more rebellious, confrontational mood amongst other forces in the country, and the ANC feels threatened.” The ANC’s Gauteng chairman, Paul Mashatile, reiterates the message about the province’s importance for his party and the message of the student revolt. “As we move into local government elections, we are very conscious of that – that the ANC can’t lose that place. Because if it does, it’s the beginning of the end,” Mashatile tells The Africa Report. Once dismissed as an opposition fantasy, the possibility of the ANC losing control of the major cities in Gauteng – Johannesburg and Tshwane/Pretoria – is now openly discussed. ●●●

THE ANC IS WORRIED

Booysen says this would seriously damage the party at the national level: “If Gauteng falls, it will have a devastating effect on the ANC. This is the heartland. It is the other seat of government. It will pull the rug out from under the ANC’s feet. Deep down they are worried.” With a voter turnout of almost 73% in the 2014 national elections, the ANC won just more than 53% of the vote in Gauteng – the poorest result since taking power in 1994. The Democratic Alliance (DA) managed to win just over 30% of the vote, with the new kid on the block, Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), winning more than 10%. Although smaller parties sometimes struggle to find the money and the activists to run their local election campaigns, they are often closer to the issues that local communities see as important. A closer look at the breakdown of voting trends in the big metropolitan

Gauteng in facts and figures ➔ Meaning: City of gold (in Sesotho) ➔ Capital: Johannesburg ➔ Premier: David Makhura ➔ Languages:19.8% isiZulu, 13.3% English, 12.4% Afrikaans, 11.6% Sesotho ➔ Population: 12,272,263 (2011) ➔ Share of South Africa’s population: 23.7% ➔ Urbanisation rate: 97% ➔ Area: 16,548km² ➔ Share of South Africa’s total land area: 1.4%

SOURCE: SOUTH AFRICAN YEARBOOK

and all of them came from Gauteng. And that is a serious indication of the support we have here.” ANC campaigners want to strengthen the party’s base. Mashatile, whose life as an activist in the sprawling township of Alexandra shaped his political career, explains: “In areas, we’re going back to basics to engage with the communities […]. The ANC, for instance, has decided corruption is going to be the number one enemy. We must be seen to be dealing with it ourselves – not just shouting slogans but real action when people mess up. We must be seen to be acting without fear of anyone.” For the DA, Moodey and his officials hold weekly focus groups on how to build the party’s membership and get the vote out, especially in Gauteng’s outlying areas. “We are putting our money and energy where we are able to reap the best benefits,” says Moodey.

areas must worry ANC strategists. In the 2014 election, the city of Johannesburg’s votes for the ANC dropped by 10.1% to 52.3%. In the Tshwane metroSTAYING IN TOUCH politan municipality, the ANC’s votes For Mashatile, it is also important to fell by 10.6% to 49.3% and by 11.7% to show voters that the party is in touch: “Let’s listen to the people and say their 55.1% in Ekurhuleni. concerns are legitimate. Let’s work toAfter studying the figures, the DA gether and try to resolve issues.” The reckons it could win at least three out party is also focusing its attention on of the 10 municipalities in Gauteng. It the black, middle-class voting block. believes it could take Tshwane (which Gauteng has the largest black middleincludes Pretoria) and Johannesburg, making inroads in Ekurhuleni and holdclass electorate: some 45% of black ing onto its only municipality in the South Africans classified as middleprovince, Midvaal. class live in the province. “On any given day, we have 2,000 South Africa’s middle classes are now voicing opposition on issues such volunteers across the province doas the slow pace of economic transing door-to-door campaigning, faceformation, inflation, the costs of doing to-face interactions with voters and business, toll roads and corruption. we are dispelling the notion we are a Mashatile says the ANC understands white party,” says John Moodey, the DA leader in the province. Moodey, who hails from South Africa’s middle classes Johannesburg, says everyare voicing opposition on the one was surprised when the DA started seriously biting slow pace of transformation into the ANC’s vote in 2014. these changes: “We’re going to be He adds: “My driving motivation is to engaging with the middle class. They break the camel’s back, and it is not must understand that we do care about impossible to dream to win.” their challenges because we don’t But the DA also has to contend with want to say to the middle class, ‘Well, a more radical rival party: the EFF. In October, the EFF showed its convening you guys are fine, we are only worried about the guys in the informal settlepower by organising a massive demonstration in Johannesburg to march for ments.’ No, we must understand that economic change. they also have issues.” The EFF is confident about Gauteng, At the same time, the EFF will be going according to EFF spokesman Mbuyiseni after the ANC from the left, campaigning Ndlozi: “We want to win all the munifor all those that have been left behind cipalities – that is the prospect. We put in Gauteng. The EFF’s Ndlozi explains: 50,000 bodies on the streets in October “The sands have shifted for those ● ● ● THE AFRICA REPORT

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POLITICS

● ● ● that are advocating for neoliberal policies. People have come to appreciate the issue of economic freedom […]. We are on the ground to uproot neoliberal issues by the self-hating ANC.” But as strategists from the three leading parties – the ANC, the DA and the EFF – ponder how next year’s local votes will shape the national balance of power, they should listen to those trying to eke

out a living on the margins of Gauteng’s supercharged economy. Zacherah Deliah, 65, is supposed to be enjoying his pension, but with two children at university he says he has no option but to drive a taxi to make ends meet. “We thought our life would be better under ANC rule. The ANC is our party, but nowadays people’s lights and water are switched off. It’s too much.”

Although Deliah has lived through the dramatic political changes of the past three decades, his experience typifies the many who feel their communities are getting a raw deal as the country’s economic problems mount. If those complaints are translated into votes, the country’s political landscape is in for some radical change. ● Crystal Orderson in Johannesburg

INTERVIEW

Paul Mashatile

LOANNA HOFFMANN/FOTO24/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

Chairman, African National Congress in Gauteng

The ANC must always listen to the people Gauteng’s ruling party chief says the province has to anticipate the rise in demand for services like education, and must talk and listen to the middle classes TAR: What does the October student revolt mean for Gauteng? PAUL MASHATILE: The whole of the African National Congress (ANC) said that the doors of learning and culture shall be open. And now we have more who are getting into higher education, tertiary and technical colleges. So the issue of access has been sorted out, in a sense. But now the facilities and resources are not able to keep up with that demand. And that’s what underpins the students revolt – that they aren’t able to afford the fees. Even though it was growing, it was not for everybody. And we in Gauteng have more universities, so people are going to feel it a lot. There’s no going back now […], we have to have more facilities. As you sort out the problems of the past, you know people want more

and more innovation. They’re doing better things. If we get all the children into school, the demand tomorrow will be we don’t have iPads. So we must be ready for that. What will be your focus areas as we head to the 2016 local government election? Our focus is going to be particularly in Tshwane and of course Johannesburg. I think that’s where most opposition parties are focusing on. But we are confident that we will stand the test of time. What gives us confidence is because of the way we work now. The opposition parties are going to struggle to convince people that we are not the right party. Does the black middle-class voting block worry the ANC? Yes, it does worry us. Our approach is that people want to be listened to – they’ve got views. And we must remove the notion that the ANC doesn’t care. If you look at the way we’re handling the e-toll issues [...] although we were not responsible for [bringing in tolls] THE AFRICA REPORT

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in Gauteng, we were able to say we are listening to the people. And we said that the concerns are legitimate. Let’s work together and try to resolve it. We’re going to be engaging a lot with the middle-class people. You must be sensitive and engage with them. Is Gauteng the ANC’s problem child, always challenging the party on certain issues? What must come first is the people, not our own egos. So if somebody somewhere in the ANC is not happy with what I say […] my fallback is: ‘Are the people happy?’ Because they are the ones who kept the ANC, not individuals in leadership positions. We must not lose them. It’s not as if the region, Gauteng, is being deviant. You are simply reacting to what you know, andwhatyourbranchesandmembers are engaging in, and you’re willing to actually take on those issues and fight for them. But at the end of the day, the ANC exists because people support it. The ANC must always listen to the people. ● Interview by C.O. in Gauteng N ° 76

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POLITICS

INTERVIEW

Thabo Mbeki

Former president of South Africa

Where is the voice of Africa? South Africa’s Mbeki talks to The Africa Report about African diplomacy, the economic slowdown and the fight against illicit financial flows

hereisapalpablenostalgia for the Thabo Mbeki era – not just in South Africa, with its worsening economic position as the ruling African National Congress (ANC) comes under growing political pressure, but also across Africa, where so many lament that the continent lacksbothavoiceandaplan.Seven years after he resigned as president of South Africa, when the ANC’s national executive backed Jacob Zuma, Mbeki is busier than ever. He is mediating in Sudan’s many wars and chairing a UN-backed panel investigating the more than $50bn in illicit financial flows out of Africa each year. It may be that the legacy of Mbeki, lambasted at home for his government’s HIV/ AIDS policies, will prove stronger in pan-African affairs than in his own country’s development. In fact, the strategic sense that Mbeki brought to negotiating a transition with the National Party and its apartheid chieftains in South Africa also informed his

JON HRUSA/EPA/CORBIS

TAR: Many activists and politicians complain about the lack of an African voice, for example in negotiations on development finance and on climate change. Do you agree? THABO MBEKI: Yes, the complaint is that the leadership has weakened on the continent. That what you saw in the past with the emergence of the African Union [AU], the New Partnership for African Development [NEPAD] and the African Peer Review Mechanism was a much more forceful leadership that represented the African positions [...] but that has kind of died away. I don’t know whether it’s true or what impact it has. In practice, you don’t have too many pan-African champions. People seem to have been too exclusively absorbed by what they should do with each of their countries. If you talk about NEPAD, the Peer Review Mechanism – the enthusiasm and the drive that used to be behind those things doesn’t seem to be ● ● ●

ideas for new pan-African institutions. There was a flowering of continental diplomacy following Mbeki’s election as South Africa’s president in 1999. Part of the reason was Mbeki’s determination to redraw Africa’s relations with the UN, World Bank and International Monetary Fund, and with Asia and the West. He wanted todevelopanAfricanposition,despite the differing interests among the continent’s 53 states, which would strengthen its economies and consolidate democratic gains.

“The [pan-African] institutions haven’t died by any means, but something has changed” By happy coincidence, in 1999 Olusegun Obasanjo, an old friend of Mbeki’s, won the presidency in Nigeria,endingacoupleofdecades of military despotism. They made common cause with Abdoulaye Wade in Senegal and Abdelaziz Bouteflika in Algeria to get African countries working together. THE AFRICA REPORT

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POLITICS

there. The institutions haven’t died by any means, but something has changed.

hold of the UN, raise this thing with them and we will resolve this thing.’ So I said OK. I contacted the UN and said: ‘This is the possibility, personally I support it and I’m sure that if I talk to other former heads of state on the continent they will support this. So let’s stop all this bombing and let the Libyans sit down,’ and so on. They said: ‘Yes, yes, yes, we will come back to you, President.’ But they never did.

in Mauritania, which was the chair of the AU. From Mauritania, they were going to go to Libya. But they were stopped by NATO [which told them]: ‘If you come now, your plane might be shot down [...] because we are beginning our military operations.’ So they couldn’t go.

●●●

In 2000, it was you and Olusegun Obasanjo. Who is speaking for Africa now in negotiations with the international system? That’s the sentiment that’s expressed right across the continent. Where is the voice? And people feel that somehow it’s disappeared, this African voice. You have people who will say… if we take the issue of Libya and the decisions of the UN Security Council in 2011, as a result of which the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation [NATO] went in and did all that bombing… that that would never have happened at an earlier time. There would have been much better respect on the part of the UN Security Council for African opinion.

Could they have persuaded Muammar Gaddafi to stop attacking the opposition? Gaddafi had agreed. They had spoken to him to say that there is a need to resolve this conflict in Libya so all of you Libyans need to get together. Stop all the fighting and decide on a new Libya, plus you, Colonel Gaddafi, you then have got to have a programme by which you disappear into the sunset. And he agreed. Then the UN Security Council intervened the way it did. Romano Prodi [Italy’s former prime minister and UN envoy to the Sahel] had been in contact with the Libyan factions – the Gaddafi and Bengazi people, the tribal chiefs – and all of them were saying: ‘Let’s find a solution, we are ready to meet.’ So Prodi said: ‘Can you please get

What happened to the African Union initiative on Libya in 2011? They completely ignored it. There was this panel of five heads of state chosen by the AU to go and mediate that Libyan conflict. They were meeting

“I contacted the UN and said: ‘Let’s stop this bombing.’ They said: ‘We’ll come back to you’” How should Africa react to the international slowdown and what are the risks? This current global situation should emphasise the need for faster and more effective regional cooperation among ourselves as Africans. If you had better cooperation in the Southern African D e ve l o p m e nt C o m mu n i t y [SADC] region, it would create space for industrialisation and restructuring of the economy. In the context of the free trade area in the SADC region, one of the dangers that South Africa faced was that tyre manufacturing would migrate out of South Africa into countries that were already producing tyres – Mozambique and Zimbabwe. You might have South Africa lose its tyre manufacturing but if Mozambique or Zimbabwe gain, the region gains from that and you get better industrialisation.

THE COST OF CORRUPTION 13%

28%

West Africa North Africa Southern Africa

11% 10%

Eastern Africa Central Africa

(1970-2008)

38% Oil Precious metals & minerals Ores Electrical machinery & equip. Fruit & nuts Copper Iron & steel Cocoa Apparel & clothing Fish & crustaceans

Africa’s biggest losers SOURCE: KAR AND CARTWRIGHT-SMITH 2010

Illicit financial flows by region

SOURCE: ECA

Cumulative losses by country 1970-2008 (US$bn)

Nigeria 217.7

Cumulative losses through trade mispricing by sector

Egypt

(US$bn, 2000-2010)

105.2

South Africa 81.8

Trickle becomes a flood (US$bn)

100 80 60 40 20 0

Morocco 33.9

2000

2001

Kar and CartwrightSmith

2002

2003

2004

2005

Kar and Cartwright-Smith trade mispricing only

2006

2007

2008

ECA’s methodologytrade mispricing only

Côte Sudan d’Ivoire 16.6 21.6

Angola 29.5

Ethiopia 16.5

Algeria 26.1

Congo 16.2

THE AFRICA REPORT

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Is Africa integrating its markets effectively? If you take Nigeria, there is a free trade area in the Economic Community of West African States. In practice, the movement of people has become much better, much easier. But for the movement of goods and trucks, there are still lots of obstacles. If you had a more effective free trade zone in West Africa, you can imagine what it would do in terms of the size of the market for Nigerian manufacturing. You have got this agreement ● ● ● N ° 76

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DEAN HUTTON/BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

now – the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa. The East African Community and SADC launched this free trade area from Cape to Cairo. I don’t know how many hundreds of millions of people that is. ●●●

You have got the issue of illicit financial flows onto the international agenda now. What’s the progress? For Africa, it is a strategic issue. So the African finance ministers said let’s look at this closely, measure its impact and set up a panel. When the UN conference on finance for development met, it took the whole issue of illicit financial flows as the African panel had recommended. They just integrated it into their action plan. When [US President Barack] Obama speaks at the UN General Assembly, he talks about it. It’s on the global agenda largely because of an African intervention. It is possible, [when it’s] properly organised and thought out, for the Africans to impact on the global thinking in a manner that would benefit the continent. You talk about political action to tackle illicit flows. What, specifically, needs to be done? What is required are very detailed implementation processes. Something like two-thirds of these illicit outflows are because of the activities of the commercial corporations, so you need institutions on the continent that

deal with tax matters, customs and financial intelligence. You can’t avoid building capacity in Africa: I’m talking about institutional capacity. On the matter of the political will [...] when the AU adopted the report and its recommendations, they perpetuated the life of our panel [on illicit flows]. They said we must report annually to the summit about the implementation of those recommendations. I was in Kenya two weeks ago and [...] I said we are going to have to get reports from you, all of the member states, individually. That will help to address the matter about political will. But also we’ve been talking with African civil society. We’ve started reporting back to that civil society, and we’ve done it for East and Southern Africa. Next month, we will do it for North, West and Central Africa. We were in contact while we prepared the report. We will go back to them to say this is now African policy, what do we do? Civil society is very interested in this matter, and the louder its voice in each of our countries the better. You then get pressure from below on the governments to make sure that they do the things that they committed themselves to at the AU. Why did South Africa allow its big companies to move their primary listings to London, sharply cutting their tax obligations?

South Africa’s big multinationals convinced the ANC leadership to allow them to list abroad

SERVICE TO SOUTH AFRICA 18 June 1942 Born in Mbewuleni 1962 Went into exile to help the ANC May 1994 Became deputy president of South Africa 1999 Elected president 2002-3 Chair of the African Union 2007 Lost the race for the ANC presidency to Jacob Zuma 2012 Chosen to lead UNECA’s High Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows

THE AFRICA REPORT

The problem that was raised by these companies was that they are going towards the mergers and acquisitions in the evolution of the global economy. For example, South African Breweries were saying this is what is happening in the brewing industry globally. The bigger brewers take over the smaller ones. And if we don’t want to lose South African Breweries altogether, then it had better grow and become too big to swallow. They said that if they can’t do it on the basis of capital available in the South African financial sector so they would have to list in London. If they don’t do that, South African Breweries will be bought out by a larger brewer. And then the decision as to the future of South African Breweries lies somewhere else: for example, about the domestic production facility – they may decide to close the South African facility and we will export beer from somewhere to South Africa. This was the argument used. Now,withSABMiller,AnheuserBusch is threatening to take them over. There have been some statements in South Africa to say if SABMiller does get taken over, it must remain listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. South Africa can’t survive autarky and cut itself off from the rest of the world. South Africa has to be open to the rest of the world. We’ve got to sell our gold and platinum somewhere. ● Interview by Patrick Smith

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POLITICS

publishers, Onuzo published her first novel when she was 17. Another two are in the pipeline. Analysing her country’s febrile politics, Onuzo said the previous government’s decision to abandon the teaching of history in schools spoke volumes about an official indifference both to the complexities of the past and the opportunities of the future. Hopes for the coming years are premised on modernisation and technology, but above all on culture and community engagement – a coming together of society. Leaving nothing to chance, Onuzo later explained that she would get stuck into politics in Nigeria after getting a few novels under her belt. FALSE STARTS

The country is still healing from its civil war, 45 years on

NIGERIA

After the first century, all eyes on the next A new book by journalist Richard Bourne has spurred debate about Nigeria’s past and what the future could hold for the country’s exploding population

he first hundred years of Nigeria’s formal existence prompted only themostmodestcommemoration in 2014. With the upcoming national elections, Nigerians had more important matters on their minds. Most of the country also shares a deep ambivalence about the circumstances of Nigeria’s invention under the auspices of Frederick Lugard, appointed by the British colonial authorities to run this expansive new territory in 1914. Nigeria’s creation was a colonial map-drawing exercise whose arbitrariness rivals that of that AngloFrench diplomatic couple Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot, who divided up the spoils of the Ottoman Empire two years later in the Middle East. Nationalist leader Obafemi Awolowo dismissively commented half a century later that Nigeria was a “geographical expression” rather than a country.

With its well-travelled and youthful population, Nigeria is acutely aware of the weight of culture on its history. There is more harmony than cacophony in this amalgam of more than 300 different languages and ethnicities. It is the richness of that culture that stretches back at least to the Nok civilisation of 1,000BC – which produced those monumental life-sized terracottafigurines–throughtotheBenin bronzes of the 13th century, to the exuberance of the contemporary art, film, music and literary scenes. So when veteran journalist Richard Bourne launched his comprehensive tome Nigeria: A New History of a Turbulent Century in mid-October with a seminar in the august surroundings of Senate House, University of London, he invited Chibundu Onuzo to the discussion panel. The youngest female ever signed to Faber and Faber, T. S. Eliot’s old

ROMANO CAGNONI/GETTY IMAGES

It may be that the election of President Muhammadu Buhari, perhaps the last of the independence generation of leaders, will mark a turning point for the country a century after its foundation. For Onuzo and her peers, the size and diversity of Nigeria should be a strength; its tortuous history should be a salutary warning more than a brake on progress. Has Awolowo’s “geographical expression” become a country? The evidence says it has, albeit uneasily. Bourne cites three points when Nigeria was poised to split at the seams: the civil war between the federal side and the Biafran secessionists from 1967 to 1970; the annulling of Moshood Abiola’s election victory on 12 June 1993; and the tumultuous reign of military ruler General Sani Abacha from 1993 to 1998. Yet, more than the history, it is now arithmetic that concentrates minds. Some 13,000 people – a medium-sized village – are born in Nigeria every day, according to the United Nations. There will be 2.5 billion Africans by 2050, UN demographers estimate, of which some 400 million will be Nigerians, making it the third-most populous country in the world after China and India. For the pessimists, the trajectory looks perilous. Nigeria could host the world’s fastest-growing cities and its highest concentration of jobless young people. Many could be prey to the sectional machinations of devious politicians. The alternative is economic modernisation, the facing down of vested interests that have hobbled the country for decades and the freeing of the country’s entrepreneurial and creative abilities. Aftera generationof false starts, Nigeria could now be edging down that road. ● Patrick Smith

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POLITICS

OPINION

O Olusegun Obasanjo Fo ormer president of Nigeria and member of the Africa Progress Panel

Africa’s future depends on a tough new global climate treaty

DE BE ZE

f the world fails to make December’s climate and emerging markets. Indeed, some countries in the treaty stick, then a global climate catastrophe is region are already at the front of the global trend of climate-resilient, low-carbon development, including certain. In Africa, we’re well aware of that stark Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. fact: we’re already facing the harshest effects of African countries need to expand our power genclimate change. eration hugely to achieve universal access to modI have been a farmer in Nigeria for 35 years. Like ern energy – and we can do it without locking in tens of millions of farmers across our continent, I high-carbon fuels. We can leapfrog straight have seen first-hand how hard it is to succeed in to renewable energy sources, just as we agriculture in Africa. The climate is volatile and leapfroggedtomobilephones,bypassing difficult, the soil often weak. Electricity supplies fixed lines. A strong African voice proare unreliable and intermittent. As president of moting the opportunities for a “triple Nigeria, I was constantly reminded of these probwin” in climate action, energy and lems and sought to tackle them. The Africa Progress Panel, of which I am a member, poverty reduction can up the tempo addresses these questions in its 2015 report, Power, for a scaling up of low-carbon enPeople, Planet: Seizing Africa’s Energy and Climate ergy investment, not just on the Opportunities. The report calls for determined leadcontinent, but globally. ership within Africa to address the climate challenge Unlocking this opportunity – as well as concerted action by the international comwill not be easy. More than 600 munity at the December climate talks and beyond. million people on the continWhat we need to achieve together is to break the ent still do not have access to link between energy and greenhouse gas emissions. modern energy. Sub-Saharan That will take bold political leadership and practical Africa’s electricity consumppolicies. In 2015, several global leaders have raised tion is lower than Spain’s. On the bar and focused on the need for an ambitious outcurrent trends it will take until come in Paris. We need to see more of such inspiring 2080 for every African to have leadership – not just for our own sake, but for future access to electricity. generations and life on the planet. Greater cohesion among Greater cohesion among African countries African countries is essential to is essential to success at the Paris talks success – in terms of the positions in Paris, as well as in how Changing this picture is not just a they negotiate until the very end. A coherent set of huge challenge, though – it’s also a common African demands is critical if the world is huge investment opportunity. Milto reach the level of ambition needed for the global climate talks to end with a viable, effective agreement. lions of energy-poor, disconnected Africans, who earn less than $2.50 a Africa’s leaders must push for “development day, already constitute an energy market worth $10 billion a year. first” while emphasising that it is possible for Africa What would it take to expand power to expand its economies and improve the wellbeing generation and finance energy for all – while of its citizens by choosing a low-carbon path. Africa avoiding the high-carbon path that the rest stands to gain from developing low-carbon energy, and the world stands to gain from Africa avoiding the of the world has followed? The Africa Progress high-carbon pathway followed by today’s rich world Panel estimates that investment of $55bn per year THE AFRICA REPORT

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is needed until 2030 to meet demand and achieve universal access to electricity. African governments could cover a large part of that financing gap themselves, by building credible tax systems and by redirecting the $21bn spent on subsidies for wasteful utilities and kerosene. Additional revenues could be mobilised by stemming the haemorrhage of finance lost through illicit financial transfers, by narrowing opportunities for tax evasion and borrowing cautiously on bond markets. G8 and G20 countries must act on past commitments to strengthen tax-disclosure requirements, prevent the creation of shell companies and counteract money laundering. Aid must play a supportive, catalytic role. Global and African investment institutions already see the growth and revenue prospects of African infrastructure in a world where demand is slowing in

developed countries. Reforming energy utilities is also key. Long-term national interest must override short-term political gain, vested interests, corruption and political patronage. Energy entrepreneurs can join the reformed utilities in investing revenues and energy funds in sustainable power that protects the planet and pays steady dividends.

The countries responsible for the lion’s share of emissions should tax them Better and more accessible energy can also power up Africa’s agriculture. Governments should take advantage of climate adaptation opportunities that integrate social protection with climate-smart strategies to raise agricultural productivity and to develop rural infrastructure, cutting poverty while strengthening international efforts to combat climate change. The countries responsible for the lion’s share of greenhouse gases should place a stringent price on emissions by taxing them, instead of continuing effectively to pay emitters by spending billions on subsidies for fossil-fuel exploration and production. By 2018, developed countries should withdraw all tax concessions, royalty relief and fiscal transfers, and, by 2020, all state aid to fossil-fuel industries. Unlocking Africa’s energy potential and building the foundations for a climateresilient, low-carbon future will require ambitious, efficient and properly financed multilateral cooperation. Yet the current global climate finance architecture fails each of these credibility tests. The pledge by the G7 leaders at the end of their summit this year to make deep cuts in emissions and to phaseoutfossilfuelsbytheendofthe century is commendable. Their commitment to increase investment in the African renewables sector is also a powerful acknowledgement from some of the world’s major emitters of the important role Africa can play in the global low-carbon transition. The only promises that matter at the Paris climate summit are those that are kept. Africa’s leaders must rise to the challenge. They are the voice of their citizens in the climate talks – and that voice must be heard. Business leaders, religious leaders, the heads of social movements and the mayors of the world’s cities must continue to pressure political leaders to reach an ambitious Paris agreement, backed by carbon pricing and taxation. Together we can create an overwhelming force for change to avert climate catastrophe and seize the opportunity to transform our energy systems and our economies. We must us act now and act together. ●

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COUNTRY FOCUS Ethiopia

VINCENT FOURNIER/JA

Highway 1, linking Djibouti port to Addis, will soon be joined by a Chinese-built railway

When giants dance Ethiopia’s in the driving seat, as investors from East and West seize on opportunities in sectors ranging from construction to brewing. Though they are global competitors, China, the US and Europe can complement each other here, say the ingenious functionaries in the state investment commission By Jacey Fortin in Addis Ababa

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hough her farm is small and the rains have been disappointing, farmer Meseret Daba is looking forward to a profitable harvest this year. The 36-year-old mother of five, who lives near the southern town of Assela, says her income has doubled since she devoted most of her land to barley two years ago. “My life has changed,” she said. “My family is comfortable now, and I’m sending my kids to school.” All around Meseret’s farm, international loans and foreign companies have been fuelling development. The ● ● ●

COUNTRY FOCUS | ETHIOPIA

nearby Wonji-Shoa sugar factory, operated by the state-owned Sugar Corporation, was recently expanded with loans from India’s Ex-Im bank. The Chinese company Sinohydro has upgraded the road connecting Assela with the major city of Adama. But it is a Western corporation that has affected Meseret’s life the most. She began growing barley because Diageo plc, a London-based alcoholic beverages company, initiated a programme in 2012 tosourcethecerealfromEthiopiansmallholders. Meseret and about 6,000 other farmers are receiving seeds, fertiliser and other inputs, the costs of which are deducted when they sell their harvests to local cooperatives, with Diageo’s Meta Abo beer brewery as the ultimate buyer. Over the past few years, Western beer companies including Diageo, Heineken and Castel Group have been building or acquiring breweries in Ethiopia. Nevertheless, China, India and Turkey remain Ethiopia’s biggest foreign direct investors by far. China is Ethiopia’s biggest trading partner and has more foreign direct investmentprojectsthananyothercountry. Chinese companies are also completing infrastructure projects, funded by loans from Chinese banks. These projects have brought tens of thousands of Chinese workers to the country – and added $4bn in the past five years alone to Ethiopia’s $19bn in external cumulative debt. When it comes to Ethiopia’s economic relationship with China, these loans “get all the hype,” says state finance minister Abraham Tekeste. “But we also have a good relationship in terms of trade and direct investment. And we would like to see more Chinese investment, particularly in exports and manufacturing.” ●●●

SUDAN

Red Sea

YEMEN

DJIBOUTI

ADDIS ABABA

SOMALIA

Dire Daoua

ETHIOPIA

SOUTH SUDAN

300 km

Gulf of Aden

SOMALIA KENYA

ETHIOPIA IN NUMBERS POPULATION

97 million1

SOURCES: WORLD BANK 20141, AFDB 2013 & 20142, UNCTAD 20143

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

64.22

AID FLOWS

$3.8bn2

FDI, INFLOWS (current US$)

$1.2bn3

GDP (current US$)

$54.8bn1

GDP GROWTH (annual %)

9.9%1

INFLATION, CONSUMER PRICES (annual %)

7.4%1

INTERNET USERS

2.91

MOBILE CELLULAR SUBSCRIPTIONS (per 100 people)

321

GDP BY SECTOR 14 10 6

WESTERN INTEREST 2 -2

Agriculture Industry Services Real GDP growth *estimations -6 2001- 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 2002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15*

GDP GROWTH % 20

GDP target for 2014/15

*estimations

SOURCE: IMF

10 5 0

2010/ 2011

2011/ 2012

2012/ 2013

2013/ 2014

2014/ 2015*

Despite China’s dominance in Ethiopia, various sectors have been attracting Western attention of late. A recent burst of private-equity investments from Europe has targeted industries including horticulture, wine and energy. These investors may lack Chinese companies’ knack for completing infrastructural projects at low cost, but they boast expertise in certain consumer-oriented sectors, and are keen to exploit Ethiopia’s growing market potential. Aklilu Woldemariam, promotion and research director at the Ethiopian Investment Commission, noted that the continent showing the most new interest is not Asia, but Europe. The United States,

Agricultural workers in the southern state of Awasa, where a new industrial park is to be built by Chinese construction firm CCECC

on the other hand, is “definitely” lagging behind.ConsideringEthiopia’sgoodrelationship with the US – a major aid donor and defence partner – Aklilu hopes the world’s largest economy could one day break into the top-10 list of Ethiopia’s foreign direct investors. The US government has been working to promote investment in Africa through its Power Africa initiative, which uses US technical assistance to facilitate energy investments. In Ethiopia, Power Africa has linked up with ReykjavikGeothermal, a US-Icelandic company, to accelerate development of a geothermal energy site near the southern village of Corbetti. The project has faced delays, but during Obama’s visit to Addis Ababa earlier this yearReykjaviksignedapower-purchasing agreement with Ethiopia’s state-owned electricity company. US private investors are also testing the waters. “As a matter of good investment philosophy, if you’re in Africa you have to be seriously considering Ethiopia,” said Elias Schulze, the managing partner and co-founder of The Africa Group, a US advisory and venture capitalist firm. He adds that although Western firms might be put off by Ethiopia’s lack of dynamism – the private sector is still developing, and

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ETHIOPIA | COUNTRY FOCUS

the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway. “Turkey, India and China are still developing countries, so we are focusing more on infrastructure,” Yang says. “America has advanced technologies. But developing countries are focusing on what they are good at. When we build, we have seen that the returns are very good, so it’s a win-win situation.” BATTLING FOR BUSINESS?

MICHELE BORZONI/PICTURETANK

In Ethiopia, as in Africa as a whole, Eastern and Western investors are often seen as competitors in a zero-sum game. Though the government is careful to say that all investors are welcome, the close political relationship between China and Ethiopia – both de-facto oneparty states that have pursued a heavily state-driven development model – has helped to cement China’s role as a primary economic partner. Speaking at the African Union during his visit to Addis Ababa in July, Obama made subtle jabs at China when he said that “economicrelationships can’t simply be about building countries’ infrastructure with foreign labour.” He added that African leaders might find it easier to work with countries that don’t speak out against human rights abuses. Western The move reflected a growing realisation countries are home to advocacy groups that Ethiopia needed a more proactive like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty approach to attracting foreign investors. International, which criticise Ethiopia The building is a hive of activity. It is for pushing large-scale development meant to be a one-stop shop to help inprojects at the expense of civil liberties. vestors navigate a system where federalBut when it comes to business, Aklilu ised land policies, unreliable utilities and argues that all countries have roles to play. Those roles are often complementopaque bureaucracies might otherwise ary,aswhenEuropeanbeer becomeadeterrent.Butnot companies use Chineseevery sector is equal: manufacturing and agriculture built roads to transport are priorities, while other supplies. Or when farmers like Meseret participate industries, like banking in initiatives like Diageo’s and trade, are not open to barley sourcing, while her foreigners except through community reaps the beEthiopian intermediaries. “Our promotion strategy nefits of the railways and is in line with government energy transmission lines being laid down by Chinese policy,” said Aklilu. Develof Chinese companies. oping countries happen investment has “There can be a sense to specialise in the sectors flowed into Ethiopia Ethiopia prioritises, he adthat it’s us or them, but we since 2010 ded as an explanation for can really have a balance,” SOURCE: CHINESE GOVERNMENT said Schulze. “The Chinese why Western firms have a shouldbehere.TheIndians smaller footprint. This point of view is confirmed by Yang should be here. The Americans should be here. The Germans should be here. And Yang, an assistant business manager at they can all be here for another decade the Ethiopian construction branch of or so without fighting in a really competthe China Civil Engineering Construcitive sense for market share, which is a tion Corporation (CCECC), one of two very unique opportunity.” ● Chinese companies that is laying down

inhibited by protectionist policies – the country’s political stability, economic growth and huge population should be key selling points for investors. Schulze is also a non-executive board member of a family business, Schulze Global Investments, which has been a pioneer of US private equity in frontier markets. The Ethiopian companies in the firm’s portfolio are diverse, covering sectors like coffee, medical supplies, food processing and cement. The Ethiopian government seems responsive to growing Western interest, said Schulze. “There’s obviously a sense of patience you need to have. But the government does reform the investment code and the commercial code with decent regularity, so that’s very helpful.” NEW NAME, NEW ACTION

Atop Aklilu’s office building, which sits at one of the busiest intersections in Addis Ababa, a sign spells out ‘Ethiopian Investment Agency’ in bold red letters. The label is outdated. About a year ago the agency, which used to be under the Ministry of Industry, began reporting straight to Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and was renamed the Ethiopian Investment Commission. THE AFRICA REPORT

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$4bn

COUNTRY FOCUS | ETHIOPIA

PEOPLE TO WATCH

Chess at a leisurely pace All four parties in the ruling coalition had a postelection shuffle in August but their leaders remain intact as Metekakat proves slow-moving

ollowing a sweeping electoral victory for the ruling coalition in May,Ethiopia’snewparliamentwill oversee the country’s second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), a five-year blueprint outlining development goals. Like its predecessor, the GTP II sets out ambitious targets for infrastructure, energy generation and economic growth. But this round will have an even stronger focus on promoting industry, which makes up only 14.3 % of gross domestic product. With opposition parties in disarray following predictable losses in May’s vote, politics in Africa’s second-mostpopulous country are still dominated by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which is made up of four regional parties. Congresses were held in August to elect the parties’ new executive committees, but all kept their chairmen and deputy chairs. The Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organisation and the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) have been accused by some constituents of neglecting regional priorities, an issue the influential former communications minister Bereket Simon raised in a speech before losing his seat on the ANDM’s executive committee. The Southern Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Movement, a less cohesive alliance of various ethnic groups, saw its chairman Hailemariam Desalegn con-

tinue as prime minister by a unanimous parliamentary vote. In a blow to Metekakat (a long-term plan to retire veteran politicians in favour of fresh talent) the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) awarded several retired veterans two years of renewed influence in the form of party voting rights. They included Sebhat Nega, a founding TPLF member; Arkebe Oqubay (1), a popular former mayor of Addis Ababa who now leads Ethiopia’s industrialisation drive; and Seyoum Mesfin, a former ambassador to China who now leads regional efforts to end the conflict in neighbouring South Sudan (see page 128). TIGRAY SPLIT

back to the TPLF’s revolutionary roots. For the first time, the influential spy chief was elected to the party’s – and therefore the ruling coalition’s – executive committee. His brother Daniel Assefa was appointed mayor of Mekelle. Getachew will, however, face some extra oversight from now on. Intelligence and defence institutions will be held accountable to a new standing committee, which will focus on budgetary and administrative issues. The move suggests that Prime Minister Hailemariam, once seen as a placeholder following the death of his iconic predecessor Meles Zenawi, is making moves to assert his leadership. Though constrained by a balancing act requiring him to keep his cabinet ethnically diverse, the prime minister has made some notable appointments. Abdulaziz Mohammed (2), widely seen as a consensus seeker, replaced the veteran Sufian Ahmed as finance minister. Kebede Chane, who as trade minister failed to meet export targets, lost his position to his deputy Yacob Yala. Newly elected Tigray MP Getachew Reda (3) has taken over Redwan Hussien’s position as communications affairs minister. But despite a few cabinet and party congress shake-ups, there is no sign that

Though Abay Woldu retained his seat as TPLF party chairman, his poor showing in preliminary votes was a clear sign of his waning popularity. The TPLF is now dealing with a split between two groups, with Despite a few cabinet shakeAbay and his allies based in ups, there is no sign the EPRDF Mekelle, Tigray’s capital city, is looking to change direction complaining about the national focus of Addis-based party members like Arkebe, Sebhat and the EPRDF is looking to change ideoloDebretsionGebremichael,whoremains gical direction. Ethiopia has made great as TPLF deputy chair, one of three deputy strides in reducing poverty and claimed prime ministers and minister of commu10.2% economic growth in the last fiscal nication and information technology. year, a strong performance even if the Security service head Getachew AsInternational Monetary Fund privately sefa, a man rarely seen by party outsiders, believes it is several percentage points made an impassioned speech harking lower. ● Jacey Fortin in Addis Ababa THE AFRICA REPORT

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COUNTRY FOCUS | ETHIOPIA

INTERVIEW So far, so clear. But half an hour before the debate, Tedros was sitting across the table from philanthropist Mo Ibrahim, who was leadingtheopposingteam,arguing that democracy had to take priority over development. Far from making their respective cases, they seemed in resolute agreement on the issue. “There is a problem with your debate,” smiled Ibrahim. ALPHA AND OMEGA AUSTIN THOMASON/UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

Tedros Adhanom Foreign affairs minister, Ethiopia

We’re growing fast, but it’s not enough After a hectic three months dealing with conflicts and negotiating with investors across Africa, Asia and Europe, Tedros Adhanom explains his country’s diplomatic strategy

t was a diplomatic conundrum that needed urgent resolution. Tedros Adhanom, Ethiopia’s indefatigable foreign minister, had arrived in Accra for the launching of The Africa Report Debates, organised in conjunction with the Mo Ibrahim Foundation on 20 November. Given Ethiopia’s impressive economic growth over the past two decades, Tedros had been asked to lead the debating team in favour of the motion that “development should take priority over democracy” (see page 78).

After all, since the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) came to power in 1991, many of its national policies have been framed aroundthedefeatofpoverty.When theEPRDF’sfoundingleaderMeles Zenawi – who died in 2012 – was asked about his government’s goals, he shot back that he would consider its policies a success when Ethiopians were able to eat three meals a day. In the 2015 elections, the ruling party won every seat in parliament. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Tedros was adamant that there was no conflict between political and economic goods in Ethiopia. “For us, the twin goals of democracy and development are the alpha and omega of our country’s survival,” he insisted, quoting Ethiopia’sforeignpolicystatement. That argument, of course, would be strongly disputed by the myriad opposition groups in Ethiopia, let alone international lobby groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. However, in a few short minutes of negotiation, a compromise motion was concocted in line with Tedros’s position and it won widespread support in the hall in Accra. These days, Tedros is used to winning arguments, reeling off statistics about Ethiopia’s economic record to applause from foreign development experts. “Of course we’re growing fast, but it still is not enough to bring structural change. And we’re working hard on that, on really attracting investment, especially in manufacturing,” he told The Africa Report after the debate. The government has reduced poverty by a third and increased primary school enrolment to cover 95% of the population, a fourfold increase since 1991. And that is the answer from Addis Ababa to those who criticise the country’s democratic deficit. Since the low point of the 2005 elections, when the government imposed tough restrictions on civil society and the press, the balance of the argument has shifted towards Ethiopia’s development record and away from concerns about political pluralism. ● ● ●

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That awkward trade-off between praising Ethiopia’s progress on development and raising concerns about human rights, treatment of opposition politicians and freedom of the press was evident in the remarks from US president Barack Obama and other officials in 2015. But from the scores of finance and foreign ministers at the UN Development Summit in July, there was general applause for Addis Ababa’s economic record and precious little criticism of the political issues. Some of this is self-serving. Security is the other part of the argument: Western and African governments alike are happy for Ethiopia to take a robust lead on regional security. Ethiopia is now part of the African Union’s force in Somalia and has been working closely with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government. The main track in Somalia should be political, Tedros added: “The regional leaders and the federal government [of Somalia] now have a platform to coordinate their efforts [...]. They are sitting to address the differences they have. That political process can help isolate Al-Shabaab, weaken it.” ●●●

NO COUNTRY IS IMMUNE

When asked why he thought Ethiopia’s security apparatus was more able than Kenya’s to fend off terrorist attacks from Al-Shabaab, Tedros diplomatically explained their differing histories: “No country is immune […]. We suffered our own attacks before, some 10 or more years ago. We tried to learn from that experience, to

overhaul our security system and make it more community-based. Starting from the border to the centre, when people see some suspicious activity they inform our security apparatus.” Eritrea, which went to war with Ethiopia between 1998-2000, is the other big regional security problem for Addis. Political dissidents and those fleeing military service have joined a flood of migrants from the neighbouring country. “The migration issue is very serious,” says Tedros. “We have four camps in Ethiopia where we host close to 200,000 Eritrean refugees, and the saddest part is we have 3,000 unaccompanied children. Youhaveseenthereportpresented to the UN Human Rights Council […] the crimes they [the Eritrean government] are committing are really serious.” At the same time, Tedros opposes plans by some countries in the European Union for a €200m ($212m) aid package for Eritrea to reduce migration: “It’s only addressing the symptoms. They haven’t even included conditions to stop the brutal behaviour internally and externally. By focusing on migration, the EU is only addressing its own problem – not Eritrea’s problem, not the neighbourhood’s problems – so they will only get the same destabilising behaviour.” Yet for Ethiopia’s other neighbour, Djibouti, where a few countries have established military bases, Tedros seems confident that neither the build-up of international forces nor 2016’s national elections will provoke a crisis.

The US president, here with the Ethiopian prime minister, has highlighted the country’s democratic shortcomings

Indeed, the Djibouti-Ethiopia relationship is at its strongest, he adds: “We’re very close. We understand each other […]. We agreed to have full economic integration and we believe that will lead to political integration in the future. If you consider the hardware, we have really done a lot.” The two countries are now joined via a new road and railway network, an electric power interconnection and now a regional water supply project. CHINESE SCHEMES

Beyond the region, Ethiopia has beenconsolidatingtieswithChina, despite Beijing’s economic rebalancing and slowdown: “I actually expect more investment from China,” Tedros explained. “We were there in September with our prime minister [Hailemariam Desalegn] and we met the central government and had the chance to go around three provinces.” The two sides discussed several new schemes to build manufacturing plants, big infrastructure projects and large agricultural and food-processing operations. “As you know, in China wages are increasing and there are lots of companies ready to migrate […]. They’re looking for a combination of incentives that can help them and also sustainable growth when they go somewhere in Africa.” With China’s rate of investment in Africa down 40% in the first half in 2015 and its national income growing more slowly than forecast, Tedros’s optimism about Beijing’s appetite fortradeandinvestmentwillbeput to a severe test in the next year. ●

A MINISTERIAL CAREER 1965 Born in Asmara 1986 Began working for the health ministry 2005 Became Ethiopia’s health minister 2011 Won the Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter Humanitarian Award for his research of malaria November 2012 Named minister of foreign affairs

THE AFRICA REPORT

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PHARMACEUTICALS

Pills for the populace The medical manufacturing industry, which still only accounts for about 15% of the local market, is the focus of a government drive for investment

he manufacturing sector in Appliance Technology Company and Ethiopia is still in its infancy, and Servipharma met with Arkebe Equbay, the drug industry is no exception. special adviser to Prime Minister HaileThings are moving fast, with state supmariam Desalegn, to discuss joint ventures for manufacturing essential drugs. port and a vibrant local market. The Chinese are not the only ones eyeing “There is a significant change in the the Ethiopian pharmaceutical pharmaceutical industry’s landscape between now and five years market. Indian, Emirati and ago. The government has now European investors are also given huge attention to the sector,” either about to start producMohammed Nuri, the founder tion or are planning to invest and chief executive of Medtech in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Ethiopia and board chairman of pharmaceutical the former state-owned Ethiopian PLAN OF ACTION market Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing is worth In July 2015, Ethiopia Factory (Epharm), tells The Africa an estimated launched a 10-year national Report. “But still, the country’s plan of action to develop pharmaceuticalcompaniesbarely local pharmaceutical manper year cover 15% of local demand.” ufacturing capacity. The plan, The government says the phar- SOURCE: DEPARTMENT supported by the European maceutical market in Ethiopia is OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY Union Commission and worth $400m-$500m each year, the Bill and Melinda Gates with growth of 25% per annum. Steady Foundation along with the World Health economic growth, improvement in the Organisation (WHO), aims to increase delivery of health care and the introaccess to essential medicines. duction of social health insurance covAccording to the national plan, the erage across the country is helping to development of the Ethiopian pharmaraise drug consumption. ceuticals manufacturing sector is still Ethiopia now provides major incentives for local and foreign companies that plan to enter the pharmaceutical industry. The benefits range from giving precedence to local companies in government procurement to offering an advance payment for up to 30% of the value of the orders. Pharmaceutical companies based in Ethiopia also enjoy tax-free loans for up to 70% of new investments and a 100% customs duty exemption on imports of all capital goods. In October, UNAIDS China and the Chinese Chamber of Commerce organised for six major Chinese pharmaceutical and medical supplies companies to visit Addis Ababa. Representatives of Mindray Medical International, Zhejiang Kangle Pharmaceutical, Desano Pharma, China Regenerative Medicine International, Wuhu Snnda Medical Treatment

$400m

Pharmaceutical manufacturing in Ethiopia has the potential to provide hundreds more with jobs

limited in terms of production capacity, technology acquisition and the creation of employment. The plan states that most of the local manufacturers are not compliant with international good manufacturing practice and no single product has been prequalified by the WHO. “We understand and are committed to the envisaged development of the sector in the next 10 years,” Kesetebirhan Admasu, Ethiopia’s health minister, said at the plan’s launch. Currently, there are 12 pharmaceutical companies operating in the country, and only six of them at full capacity. Cadila, Julphar Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Company and Pharmacure are some of the major players. There are also approximately 200 importers of pharmaceutical products and medical consumables in Ethiopia. Medtech’s Mohammed explains: “Ethiopia’s pharmaceutical industry is attractive compared to [those of] other African countries owing to the large population size here and a growing middleclass population.” He adds that one of his other companies, Julphar Ethiopia, is already exporting its products to Somaliland and South Sudan. He explains that theindustry will continue to growbut that the government could do more by adjusting its foreign-exchange controls to the needs of companies: “The big challenge we are facing at the moment is lack of access to sufficient foreign exchange.” ● Elias Meseret Taye in Addis Ababa

XINHUA/ZUMA/REA

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At the crossroads of Africa, the Arab world and Asia

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COUNTRY FOCUS | ETHIOPIA

OPINION

M Mima Nedelcovych Presiident & CEO of the Initiative for Global Development

All aboard the sole train: how the US and China are empowering Ethiopia’s private sector

thiopia’s footwear industry has long been known for producing fine-quality leather shoes and products. With reliable power sources, affordable labour and a fast-growing economy with a forecasted GDP growth of over 10%, it is no wonder that international companies and suppliers are flocking to Ethiopia to tap into this market. Through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the US-Africa trade law that provides eligible African countries with duty-free and quota-free access into the US market, leather shoes exported from Ethiopia have simply exploded. Under AGOA, shoe exports jumped from $630,000 to nearly $7m between 2011 and 2012, a more than tenfold increase, according to statistics from USAID. Ethiopia has the largest livestock herd in Africa and, indeed, one of the largest in the world. Local companies have been producing raw materials and leather products for export, dating as far back as the 1930s. A new class of Ethiopian entrepreneurs are taking advantage of AGOA to operate in a world-class space. SoleRebels, an Ethiopian eco-friendly footwear manufacturer, has transformed itself from a small enterprise into a global footwear company with projected yearly sales of $15m or more in revenue. But for the most part Ethiopia’s homegrown businesses do not yet have the scalable manufacturing capacity to supply a US market. So, who’s taking advantage of AGOA’s duty-free access to the US market? Interestingly, it’s Chinese investors (see TAR 58, March 2014). Chinese companies are stepping in to fill the void in Ethiopia’s manufacturing sector. The Huajian Group, a Chinese footwear manufacturer that opened up a factory outside the capital, Addis Ababa, is a perfect example of Chinese investors taking advantage of AGOA. Huajian has committed to investing $2m over a 10-year period to build ‘Shoe City’, a global shoe-manufacturing hub in the country. Chinese private-sector investments are providing a boost to the economy by creating jobs, building local capacity, and increasing funding for public ser-

vices. Truth be told, it’s helping pull many out of poverty in an environment of a bulging young population in search of employment. With more Chinese private companies reaping the benefits of AGOA, some question whether the US is losing out. Not necessarily. It is up to US companies to choose what part of the value chain they wish to focus on. If they are focusing on the downstream role of buyers, branders and sellers of the shoes into the US market, so be it. By providing the necessary infrastructure and reliable power, Ethiopia is enabling the Chinese to move some of their manufacturing offshore from China to lesser-cost production sites. In the end, Ethiopia is the ultimate winner. And AGOA has accomplished its mission of stimulating growth of the African private sector by opening US markets to African-made products. US companies stand to benefit from lucrative new business opportunities to either invest in and scale up Ethiopian companies, or enable that to happen by providing profitable access to the US market for quality and competitively priced products. Years ago, US business had little choice but to deal primarily with government officials. The African private sector was primarily structured for commerce and had very little capacity for manufacturing and industry.USbusinessestodaycanfind solid partners in Ethiopian small and medium-sized businesses, and certainly can find common ground with their Chinese counterparts in Ethiopia. Chinese manufacturing companies produce leather goods at lower costs; US companies and markets have access to low-cost, high-quality goods; and Ethiopians gain new jobs and experience a boost in their economy. Ethiopian companies will also benefit from a transfer of knowledge and technical expertise to prime their business for the international market. A win-win for everyone. ● THE AFRICA REPORT

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BUSINESS ELECTRICITY

Who’s got

watts? There are big pushes for Africa to be electrified, but the continent is far from plugged in. Projects have been slow to develop even as new money has been looking for ventures By Jon Marks

nveryfewsubjectsis consensus so global and the problem so stark as the need for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – the world’s least-electrified region along with rural India – to gain access to clean, sustainable energy. Whether by developing fitfor-purpose electricity supply industries (ESIs) or off-grid solutions that bypass problems that have left much of SSA in the dark, improved access is essential for economic growth and development. The World Bank estimates that 24% of SSA’s population now has access to electricity. Electricity THE AFRICA REPORT

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shortages are blighting economic growth from Accra to the Cape. Dependence on diesel generators is hugely costly and polluting, and the lack of clean energy is deadly – according to the World Health Organisation, nearly 4 million people die each year from inhaling lethal smoke from kitchen stoves and fires. Acronyms have piled up as the ‘international community’ responds. The United Nations launched its global Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) initiative in 2012 to pull one billion people out of energy poverty, 500 million of theminAfrica.KandehYumkella,a N ° 76

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Political and bureaucratic blockages are weighing on big-ticket power projects

PETTERIK WIGGERS/PANOS-REA

distinguished and inspiring Sierra Leonean, is its first chief executive. US president Barack Obama in 2013 moved to burnish his legacy by unveiling Power Africa, committed to “adding 60m new electricity connections and generating 30,000MW of new and cleaner power” in a programme driven by US federal agencies and private sector partners. Following in the slipstream, but with a Gallic flavour, French politician and former environment minister Jean-Louis Borloowonheadlinesbyestablishing Energies pour l’Afrique this year. Many of these programmes, which also include the AfricaTHE AFRICA REPORT

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24% of subSaharan Africa’s population now has access to electricity, the World Bank says

European Union Energy Partnership, have placed the promotion of renewable energy (RE) at the top of their agenda. Unprecedented commitments to RE and energy efficiency – which is still largely ignored by many African ESIs – are expected to emerge out of the global climate talks in Paris in December 2015. There are signs of progress in lighting up SSA. Nigeria privatised its inefficient generation and distribution in a new system in 2013 back-stopped by the World Bank and driven by some of the nation’s leading reformists. Some of the successor compan-

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ies are showing signs of life, although triumphant declarations that the Nigerian ESI has definitively entered a new phase seem wildly overstated. WHETTED APPETITES

A long-awaited ruling by the new federal attorney-general allowing the Azura independent power project (IPP) to reach financial close failed to make many headlines outside the industry, but potential developers welcomed it as a breakthrough for privately financed development in Nigeria (see box). Their appetites have been whetted by the potential for

BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

investing in Nigeria and in the DepartmentofEnergy’sindependbankable projects emerging from ent power project office – to work South Africa’s Renewable Energy with international developers to Independent Power Producer Promake commitments to RE a realcurement (REIPPP) programme. ity through the REIPPP structure. But in many countries, finanThere is a genuine buzz among cing flows and project delivery private-equity players. Some inremain spotty at best. Across SSA, vestors have donor government public sector utilities, mandated shareholders, like Britain-based Actis and CDC Group. Others – like by governments to charge tarUS giants Blackstone and Carlyle iffs that are below their breakGroup, and powerful players such even points for their electricity, as South Africa-based Harith – are all but insolvent. Electricity have put in place funds and are is seen by populations as a publooking for projects to invest in. lic good that should not be paid Backed by bilateral and interfor at commercial rates, even if a lack of cost-reflective tariffs means national financial institutions, Paris-based Meridiam Infrastrucbankrupt utilities fail to deliver ture Finance is launching its first sufficient supply. African equity fund, which partner The second SE4All forum, in Julia Prescot says will position it as May, heard that even with the rea developer as well as an investor cent upsurge in efforts to improve in long-term projects in SSA. supply, rapid global population There is much excitement growth threatens to outstrip inabout new classes of investor creases in energy access, putting that could make a major impact the 2030 target in jeopardy. Anyby funding projects. These inthing between $1trn and $2trn is needed annually to achieve global clude pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and the family offices that are a Between $1trn and $2trn feature of contemporary fundraising. South would be needed annually African pension funds to supply affordable and and respected bodies reliable energy to all elsewhere like the Botswana Public Officers goals, World Bank global practice Pension Fund have billions of onenergyandextractiveindustries dollars that could go into power senior director Anita Marangoly and other infrastructure – if, as George told the New York gathmany expect will happen in the ering. The need had previously next decade, energy projects bebeen estimated at $400bn per year. come a recognised asset class. The overall trend of commitRENEWABLES SUCCESS ments to energy is increasing, The continued success of the but not as quickly as the hype REIPPP in delivering solar and generated by Obama’s Power wind generation projects at lower Africa and other initiatives would and lower prices suggests largesuggest. The Infrastructure Consortium for Africa (ICA), whose scale investment can be mobilmembers include leading naised if the conditions are right. tional and multilateral donors, South Africa’s giant state utilreports that energy again received ity, Eskom, remains in crisis over the greatest attention of the four its failure to deliver coal-fired infrastructure sectors it promotes power stations and upgraded in 2014, with its members’ comtransmission projects on time, and is mired in governance probmitments at $9.2bn. lems. But South Africa has made Multilateral development banks led the way, with the World Bank a success of renewables since Group committing $2.3bn to enthe government finally allowed ergy projects, led by the Noor enlightened managers – notably redoubtableTreasuryofficialKaren Ouarzazate concentrated solar Breytenbach, who now heads the power project in Morocco. ● ● ●

ELECTRICITY Morocco Kingdom in the sun Plans to install at least 2GW of solar and 2GW of wind by 2020 have made considerable progress in a policy driven from the top and supported by a growing commercial base. Work is under way by Saudi Arabian developer Acwa Power and Spain’s Sener Grupo de Ingeniería on three of the four phases of Africa’s single largest solar project, Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy’s (MASEN) plan to generate 510MW at Ouarzazate. Meanwhile, local companies including Lafarge Maroc and Italcementi’s local affiliate Ciments du Maroc are installing wind power. These moves will overhaul the oil-import-dependent kingdom’s energy mix: total installed generation capacity stands at 7.9GW, of which 68% is thermal – nearly half of it from coal.

Nigeria IPP promise, generation shortfalls After months of politicking, a long-awaited ruling by the new federal attorney general should allow the Azura-Edo independent power project (IPP) to finally reach financial close; this will be seen as a breakthrough for privately financed development in Nigeria, providing a template for future projects. The 1,074MW Alaoji, 561MW Calabar and 750MW Olorunsogo II National Integrated Power Projects were commissioned in early 2015, when installed on-grid capacity rose to around 12.8GW. However, actual generation performance remains poor, with output fluctuating between 1.3GW in May and 4.7GW in August. Vice-president Yemi Osinbajo hopes to increase this to 6GW in the first quarter of 2016. Key reforms have suffered chronic delay, including the declaration of the Transitional Electricity Market – hampering efforts to overhaul privately owned distribution companies.

South Africa Renewables benchmark After years of being a laggard in promoting renewables programmes, South Africa has set a benchmark with its Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement (REIPPP) programme to develop solar and wind projects to feed the national grid since 2011. The prices of renewables projects have plunged to levels that are now competitive with thermal power – which in South Africa means cheap coal. The result is a major upturn in capacity in a thermal power-dominated grid that has been suffering near-daily blackouts. As of mid-2015, total generation capacity allocated through REIPPP since 2011 had reached 6.33GW, involving an investment of around R193bn ($15.5bn). While a financial crisis at national utility Eskom delayed a fourth round of REIPPP bidding in 2014 – as much else – this is going ahead, with the government adding another 2.8GW of capacity for developers to bid for.

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COMPANIES & MARKETS | BUSINESS

To Spain

TUNISIA

Algiers

To Italy

Tunis Gulf of Gabès

Rabat Hassi R’Mel

MOROCCO Sidi Mokhtar

Berkine Basin

Ouarzazate

Western Desert

Gas pipeline Major power generation projects:

Sirte Basin LIBYA

• Hydroelectric (including pumped storage)

EGYPT

L. Nasser

Commissioned Pipeline

Nile

MALI

• Thermal (oil, gas, coal)

MAURITANIA NIGER

Niger

Dakar

SENEGAL GAMBIA Bamako Bissau GUINEA B.

Ouagadougou

Banjul

Niamey

BURKINA FASO

GUINEA

BENIN TOGO GHANA

CÔTE Freetown D’IVOIRE SIERRA LEONE Monrovia Yamoussoukro Lomé LIBERIA Foxtrot

Ten Jubilee

Ethiopia Giant in the Horn

Porto Novo

Blue Nile

L. Chad

Niger Delta EQUAT. GUINEA Libreville

SOUTH SUDAN

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Bangui

CAMEROON Yaoundé

•

Addis Ababa

White Nile

SOMALIA

ETHIOPIA

Uele

UGANDA Kampala

Juba

Kigali Lake DEMOCRATIC Victoria REPUBLIC OF CONGO RWANDA Bujumbura BURUNDI Kinshasa

Dodoma

TANZANIA

Kasaï

Luanda

Tana

Nairobi

Lake Tanganyika

Lualaba

Lake Mweru

Songo Songo Offshore Tanzania Mnazy Bay

Lake Malawi

ANGOLA Cunene

Mogadishu

KENYA

CONGO

Lower Congo Basin

N ° 76

ERITREA

Juba

Congo

GABON

• Other (solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear)

Djibouti

Abuja

Brazzaville

•

Asmara

N’Djamena

NIGERIA

Offshore Cabinda

Ethiopia has bucked the trend of stalled megaprojects (see main article), developing hydroelectric power (HEP) dams even though it was deprived of major loans from the World Bank and other conventional donors in the last decade as many funders pulled back, influenced by non-governmental organisations and other critics. China, financing work by Chinese companies, made up some of that shortfall. But for many big projects, led by the 6GW Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a government dedicated to promoting the ‘developmental state’ has mobilised its own funds, some coming after appeals to the diaspora. Renewables output has risen from 360MW to 4.2GW in the past 20 years and will reach 12GW as GERD and other projects come on stream in the next few years from HEP, solar, wind and geothermal sources. HEP and electricity interconnections play a critical role in Ethiopia’s efforts to pull its population out of poverty and in promoting regional relations, says Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, foreign affairs minister. Ethiopia is already supplying electricity to Djibouti and Sudan, and “will supply 2GW to Kenya after GERD is complete”, which Tedros says “will contribute to integrating Africa”. THE AFRICA REPORT

SUDAN

CHAD

Khartoum

SOURCE: CBI/AEEP

Conakry

To Jordan

Cairo

ALGERIA

Nouakchott

Major gas fields and recent significant discoveries

To Israel

Ghadames Basin

Illizi Basin

Sahara Fields

Offshore Nile Delta

Tripoli

ZAMBIA

Lilongwe Lusaka

Cubango

Offshore Rovuma MOZAMBIQUE Basin MADAGASCAR

Harare

Antananarivo

ZIMBABWE

NAMIBIA BOTSWANA

Windhoek

Limpopo

PandeTemane

Gaborone

Kudu

Orange

Vaal

Maputo Pretoria SWAZILAND Mbabane

Maseru

Ibhubesi

LESOTHO SOUTH AFRICA

Kenya Tapping the Rift Valley

Bredasdorp Basin

The East African Rift Valley has undoubted potential to develop gigawatts of geothermal resources. A major problem has been early-stage exploration for steam, the cost of which many power developers are loath to take on. The Kenyan government created the Geothermal Development Company (GDC) to help tackle these problems; it has several projects under way, following on from the 280MW expansion of the Olkaria development – where, separately, international investor Ormat has developed several projects. GDC’s larger project is the 400MW Menengai Geothermal Development Phase 1 Project in Nakuru, where initial support for exploratory drilling and testing came from the African Development Bank. A respected and important source of financial support driving schemes across the region has been the Geothermal Risk Mitigation Facility, developed by the African Union Commission and funder KfW Entwicklungsbank, a German development bank. Kenya hopes to boost capacity to 1,600MW on the Menengai site. However, GDC has, in recent months, become mired over claims of corruption linked to procurement, with projects delayed by judicial review.

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BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

Another notable 2014 commitment was the African Development Bank’s $1bn allocation to Angola’s power sector reform support programme. Power Africa committed to put $7bn into the sector in 2013. But the programme appears to have less potential because the US government explained that it would play a role in mobilising funds and would not be providing huge sums of its own. Meanwhile, the ICA Secretariat and other observers have noted a withdrawal of Chinese funding from projects, reflecting Beijing’s concern to regear its spending to meet a harsher economic climate. A critical problem raised by many developers, lawyers and other specialists is the problem of working with weak SSA government departments and utilities. The Abidjan-based ICA Secretariat’s annual poll of private sector operators in African infrastructure sees them citing “constraints such as bureaucratic delays, policy uncertainty, lack of transparency and insufficient institutional capacity”. But private sector respondents and ICA members were preoccupied with “the shortage of adequately prepared or bankable projects [which] was a much bigger challenge than finding project finance”. ●●●

MEGA-SCHEMES STALLED

Political, bureaucratic and other blockages have taken an especially heavy toll on the big-ticket projects promoted by pan-African initiatives that remain central to leaders’ political discourse, whose flagships are the New Partnership for Africa’s Development and the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). While swathes of press releases and news coverage focus on PIDA’s “transformational” list of major infrastructure projects, few of these schemes have made significant progress over the past year. “The political discourse that Africa’s generation deficits can be met by projects like Inga – and that other more mundane issues do not require such effort – has been

KEVIN MOLONEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES-REDUX-REA

deeply damaging,” comments a leading project developer. He is referring to the potentially huge Inga hydroelectric power (HEP) dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In its latest iteration, the minimum 3.5GW Inga III scheme was expected to be developed with Eskom as an anchor customer. But that seems unlikely, with South Africa once again pulling back from a major commitment. One emerging player has bucked the trend of stalled mega-projects: Ethiopia has developed a number of major dams without recourse to loans from the World Bank and other traditional donors (see box). While PIDA’s mega-schemes drag on elsewhere, the real breakthrough may come at the other end of the scale, where communities, local authorities, nongovernmental organisations and other stakeholders are exploring off-grid options that can serve isolated communities and bypass often poorly performing state utilities. SE4All is among those won over by mini-grids, providing the zippy slogan of “converting commitments to kilowatt hours”. Grassroots businesses are developing new services that could emerge as the elusive ‘game-changers’ SSA craves – just as information and communications technology (ICT)

Decentralised solar power and other off-grid options can provide electricity with less government interference

2080 On current trends it will take 65 years until all of Africa has electricity SOURCE: APP

THE AFRICA REPORT

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entrepreneurs, not old-style state monopolies, drove the mobile telecoms revolution. Pay-as-you-go distributor M-Kopa Solar is supplying more than 250,000 homes in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania using consumer-friendly sales plans linked to payments via mobile phones. M-Kopaanditsgrowingnumberof peers argue that harnessing new, ever-cheaper technologies makes market-based solutions relevant to even the poorest communities. Professor Izael Da Silva of Nairobi-based Strathmore University, one of the continent’s deeper thinkers on ESI issues, observes that decentralised generatordistributors can provide electricity to rural consumers at commercial rates as they leverage technology and lessons gained from ICT. In the process, they are effectively relegating government to the role of regulator, as business is freed from the constraints of traditional state monopolies. Taking heart from the ICT experience – more private investment and less government interference, not to be confused with reduced standards of governance – should give hope that electricity is coming to the estimated 585 million SSA citizens who lack access, even if it is not necessarily transmitted from a glitzy mega-project opened by a smiling big man. ● N ° 76

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Last of the big spenders: say goodbye to the middle-class myth

CONSUMERS

Cameroon – and eschewing the ‘floating’ segment defined by the AfDB, research outfit BearingPoint and pollsters Ipsos restricted themselves to households with revenue between $15 and $60 a day or $450 to $1,800 per month. Extrapolated, that would give a middle class of around 140 million people, corresponding roughly to the superior and inferior tranches identified by the AfDB. Researchers conducted 4,000 interviews, taking between 30 minutes and an hour on each of them, with questions touching economic data, social issues and consumption habits. The study included a further 50 in-depth half-day studies.

More bills than thrills A new study by Africa-focused distribution company CFAO argues that Africa’s middle classes are smaller, more conservative and more fragile than others have claimed

frica’s middle classes are oft discussed but hard to quantify. The African Development Bank (AfDB) gamely tried to come up with an estimate of their numbers in 2011, placing Africa’s middle classes at around 350 million people. This had the merit of sparking debate, even if there were plenty who disagreed with the AfDB’s criteria of a daily income of between $2 and $20. What the AfDB calls the ‘floating middle class’ is suspect, even if this group shares some characteristics with its better-off middleclass peers. “These characterisations are always very fluid,” says Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI) researcher Hélène Quénot-Suarez. She points to the strong regional disparities of the middle classes around the continent and their fragile nature: “There are some people for whom the end of the month is floating or poor, even if they start the month in the middle class.”

The strength of Africa’s middle classes remains a subject of controversy, particularly for companies wishing to target these consumers. In June, Switzerlandbased agribusiness Nestlé announced that it is cutting 15% of its workforce on the continent because it had overestimated the strength of Africa’s middle classes. “We thought this would be the next Asia, but we have realised the middle class here in the region is extremely small and it is not really growing,” Nestlé’s Equatorial Africa boss Cornel Krummenacher told reporters. It is unclear how much these comments reflect Nestlé’s operational issues or a wider trend, precisely because the data are so sparse. France-based distribution and retail company CFAO jumped into the breach in October, publishing the largest and most detailed study of the middle classes yet to emerge. Choosing five countries – Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire and

ANTI-BLING

Who did they find? What is the average middle-class household like? A picture emerges of a frugal, striving class that is fearful of slipping backwards. Its members see themselves as custodians of a new morality, one that is ‘anti-bling’. They have stable incomes, often with several jobs and often with two people contributing to the household budget. More than 90% of them have bank accounts, compared with an African average of 15-20%. Significantly, more than two-thirds manage to save around $135 a month. While the average member of the Moroccan, Cameroonian and Kenyan ● ● ●

70%

of middleclass household heads have a university degree

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Spirits ● ● ● middle classes carries significant debt, there is much less debt among their peers in Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire. These African households tend to comprise four to five people, with an average of 1.8 children. Education plays a key role in them. More than 70% of the heads of household have a degree, and four out of every five households are financing the education of at least one child. Often, the money from a side business pays for it. A 44-year-old public-sector worker in Nigeria explained to the researchers: “If we didn’t have the taxi, we could not put the children in private school.” The middle classes are acquisitive but also restrained. Virtually every household surveyed has a television and nine in every 10 have a refrigerator – which they fill on occasional trips to a supermarket, at least once a month. Food represents a quarter of their monthly spending. Housing fol-

Frequency of purchase

Wine/ Champagne

(average)

Nappies

Once a month or less

Beauty products

Rice

Fruit juice

Fresh fruit and vegetables

Housecleaning products

Pasta

Potatoes

Washing powder

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Once a week

Soaps

Fizzy drinks

Sweets

Twice a week

Fish

Dairy products

Meat

lows at 18%, and it is closely followed by education. So how do companies target these people, with their low budgets and spending? To a large extent, it’s about offering the right product. CFAO chairman Richard Bielle points to India, where companies like Suzuki offer low-cost motorbikes and Bic sells razors

More than twice per week

individually rather than in packs of 20: “With us, after years of only having more-expensive models, Yamaha finally came up with a $1,000 model and got 40% sales growth instead of 3%.” SMALL TOWN DUES

IFRI’s Quénot-Suarez also explains that distributors should pay attention to smaller cities. “Seventy per cent of urban growth in Africa happens in towns of under 500,000 people – don’t forget there are middle classes there.” And while CFAO is a gateway company for foreign brands seeking markets in Africa, its report gives some succour to local businesses. The middle classes in this study may not necessarily be politically active – Nigeria aside – with their members preferring to keep their heads down and uplift their families. But they do, however, show a strong preference for ‘Made in Africa’ products, and local manufacturers can keep one step ahead by being closer to local tastes. Despite the arguments in the CFAO-commissioned studies that the African middle classes are small but striving, it is easy for optimism to creep in. Researchers at BearingPoint predict that Africa’s middle classes will be 900 million strong by 2040. That would be bigger than the middle classes of China and India combined – something that may get the naysayers in Nestlé to rethink their cutbacks. ●

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debates Tough talk on development

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ACCRA, GHANA 20 November 2015 THE PLACE TO BE FOR AFRICAN LEADERS www.theafricareport.com

BUSINESS | LEADERS

PROFILE South African shareholders in the form of Nedbank and the Public Investment Corporation (PIC)pensionfundownnearly40% between them. The bank today has Qatar National Bank (QNB) as a major shareholder after it raised its stake to 23.5% in September 2014. HISTORY MATTERS

GUILHEM ALANDRY/DOCUMENTOGRAPHY FOR TAR

Ade Ayeyemi

Group chief executive officer, Ecobank Transnational

No more shadowboxing over leadership With its expanded continental footprint, new investors and a new chief executive, the Togo-based bank is poised for the next step, though there may be global trouble ahead

he Lomé-based panAfrican bank Ecobank has come a long way since its recent governance crisis. In his characteristically blunt fashion, Ade Ayeyemi, who became Ecobank’s new group chief executive in September, says, “This organisation went through a near-death experience two years ago. And now we’ve recovered, we need to power through.” This is not a dramatisation. Existential scandals repeatedly rocked the lender

in 2013 under the stewardship of Ivorian banker Thierry Tanoh. Hedge funds and activist investors were looking at the undervalued stock with sharp eyes. And perhaps, in some way, the old Ecobank did die: the ‘Ecobank de papa’, majority-owned by Nigerian and Togolese business interests, is no more. The bank has spread its wings over 35 countries in what it likes to call ‘middle Africa’, building an asset base of over $20bn, and with a new set of owners. THE AFRICA REPORT

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It helps, then, that the new boss has experience with global capital markets and the South African banking scene but also a sensitivity to history. “To be honest, I’m going to be standing on the shoulders of the people that came well before me. They’ve created a financial institution that is present in multiple countries in the continent. The job of building a house is done. It’s my job to make it a home.” He bats away any suggestion that the headquarters could leave the Togolese capital. Likewise, any hintthatEcobank,followingitspurchase of Nigeria’s Oceanic Bank in 2011, has become overly focused on the Nigerian market: “I haven’t lived in Nigeria for 16 years because I’ve been working across the continent. I didn’t get the job because I’m a Nigerian, I got the job because I’m a professional. And I hope people understand that I live in Lomé, I don’t live in Nigeria.” Prior to joining Ecobank, Ayeyemi spent more than 27 years with the US multinational financial services corporation Citigroup, rising to head Citibank’s subSaharan African operations from Johannesburg. As Citigroup cut back many of its international operations amid the fallout from the 2008 US credit crisis, Ayeyemi was tasked with boosting the bank’s African business portfolio to take advantage of the higher growth rates in Africa’s leading economies. Despite a quiet public demeanour, Ayeyemi has a reputation for strong management skills. The divided institution may require them as storm clouds gather over Africa’s economies. Ayeyemimayalsoneedtoputhis diplomatic hat on. “I think the tensions are no longer there, because

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LEADERS | BUSINESS

what we’ve done is to allow the institution to rise beyond individuals and go back to the reason why the founding fathers created Ecobank”, he says. The tensions he refers to grew out of the dismissal of executive director Laurence Do Rego, sacked by Tanoh in 2013 for blowing the whistle over a controversial salary increase. She was reinstated at the beginning of Albert Essien’s custodianship in March 2014. “I think people are mature enough to see that now the succession war is over we need to come together as a team and win in the marketplace with the customers,” says Ayeyemi. “And that is where the real fight is. As we go into 2016, there’s going to be turbulence in the environment and we don’t need to distract ourselves with shadow-boxing because of the leadership position.” In particular, he sees Ecobank’s advisory role as critical in the months ahead: “Remember – if it’s challenging for us, it will be challenging for our clients. It’s like when you enter a plane and you’re going to go through rough patches. If the pilot anticipates this and asks you to fasten your seatbelt, the impact on you becomes much less.” CENTRALISED PRODUCTS

But to do that, Ecobank needs to get its own house in order, a process started during the brief post-Tanoh tenure of Essien, who reached the statutory retirement age of 60 earlier this year. For Ayeyemi, this will go beyond simple consolidation, as Ecobank put an end to its big expansion push two years ago.

2011

2012

Instead, he wants to centralise the creation of banking products. “[There are] the lending products, the cash management products, the trade products: those things we’ll manufacture centrally,” says Ayeyemi. “We have letters of credit that are open in so many countries today. Given the level of technology, there has to be a way to do that in a central location or at least not more than two or three locations in the continent.” He points to the bank’s Accra technology hub as a possible place to start. Positive signs have come from the corporate investment banking segment, whose revenues have helped offset weakness elsewhere. Next on the agenda is cutting costs. This was already underway in Nigeria, with the absorption and rationalisation of Oceanic’s branch network, and Ecobank’s existing network. Here, as elsewhere, the retail operations and network of branches are the problem. “Today, our revenue on individuals is great, but our cost to serve is high,” explains Ayeyemi. Again, technology is mooted as the solution, in the form of mobile banking, with small-business owners also targeted. The bank also accepts that regulators will need to take a closer look at institutions with large international footprints. The International Monetary Fund recently issued a note on this subject. “We cannot deny the fact that we are becoming systematically important because we are in multiple locations […]. It’s like when an airline purchases a Boeing 747 or Airbus 380: when you put 800

2013

2014

people in one capsule, you become systematically important.” Ecobank will need to be at the top of its game to tackle the next phase in Africa’s economic emergence, particularly in the twin challenges of infrastructure and industrialisation. For the latter, Ayeyemi points to the need for better business environments. “If it’s going to take people more than 80 days to get permits issued, then nobody is going to come.”

MANAGING ECOBANK’S BOUNCEBACK 1985 Graduated with a degree in accounting from Obafemi Awolowo University 1998 Worked at Citibank as a managing director

CURRENCY CONCERNS

September 2013 Became chief executive of Citigroup’s sub-Saharan Africa division

In particular, he takes aim at governments’ attempt to shore up currencies. “I think manufacturing will only happen to the extent that we do not subsidise imports. In the countries that artificially try to hold their currency, they are exporting jobs and importing poverty.” Forinfrastructure,Ecobank’snew shareholder configuration comes intoplay.“Iftherewasapowercompany that wanted to build electricity infrastructure in, say, Nigeria, Ecobank wouldn’t have been able to do it on its own. But when you teamtogether Ecobankknowledge

September 2015 Appointed group chief executive for Ecobank Transnational

“Today, our revenue on individuals is great, but our cost to serve is high”

2015

Banking on growth

Ecobank's share price in Naira

10.00

10/29 18.60 THE AFRICA REPORT

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SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

15.00

oftheenvironmentwithNedbank’s structuring capability, [and] the financing power of QNB and PIC, it becomes an easier problem to solve,” explains Ayeyemi. The role of long-term investors like pension fund PIC is particularly relevant here. It could help in matching the long tenors needed for infrastructure projects. “We need to figure out how to structure the funding mix to be able to take the project-finance risk and post-project finance – to structure that and input those instruments back into the fixed-income markets, through pension companies investing in it together with insurance companies that have long, patient capital.” The new tricks of an evolving bank. ● Nicholas Norbrook

TAR Debates

Democracy versus development The first ever debate organised by The Africa Report pitched the supporters of ‘developmental sprints’ against those who argue democratic institutions should come first

he failure of many African governments to deliver development consistently to their populations leaves many people to ask the question: Should Africa look to countries like Rwanda and Ethiopia, where economic growth takes precedent over political pluralism? It is hard to argue with the development records of the administrations in Kigali and Addis Ababa, be it on shared growth, education or maternal health. So do people want bread or justice? Is the danger that African countries may hope for a Lee Kuan Yew but could end up with a Vladimir Putin?

His speech recalled his personal experience as a young man living under curfew during a military dictatorship in Ghana, where he saw his brother mistreated at the hands of soldiers. The rest of the debate took as its starting point the great economic sprint that Africa needs to make if it is going to provide jobs for the 300 million Africans who will join the labour force over the next 15 years.

The Africa Report sought some answers at the inaugural TAR Debates, at the Mövenpick Hotel in Accra, Ghana, on 20 November, inpartnershipwiththeMoIbrahim Foundation. For this first event, a distinguished panel examined the question: What should be the priority, democracy or development? John Mahama, Ghana’s president, launched the discussions in front of a glittering crowd, saying: “Democracy will never be a perfect system because people will always be imperfect beings.” He added: “But the problem with dictatorships is that youdon’t get to choose whichdictatoryouaregoingtoget.” THE AFRICA REPORT

QUALITY OF DEMOCRACY

As President Mahama pointed out, many Asian countries have had “authoritarian governments that are able to make quick decisions andbringaboutimmediatechange or unprecedented growth.” On the ground, the call for tangible progress often wins the argument.InconjunctionwithGeoPoll, The Africa Report surveyed people •

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ALL PICTURES BY FRANCIS KOKOROKO FOR TAR

Our debaters included, from left to right: Trevor Manuel, former South African finance minister; Carlos Lopes, executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa; Tedros Adhanom, Ethiopia’s foreign minister; Patrick Smith, The Africa Report’s editor-in-chief; Mo Ibrahim of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation; Audrey Gadzekpo, a lecturer at the University of Ghana; and Jay Naidoo, labour activist. Below, Ghana’s President John Mahama

in Ghana, South Africa, Uganda and Cameroon about the importance of democracy and development. In Ghana, 31% of people questioned wanted democracy prioritised, whereas 67% wanted development – a result echoed across the other countries. This shows the disillusion many have with their governments. “A democracy that doesn’t produce results is an empty promise,” said Arancha González, executive director of the Geneva-based International Trade Centre, during the debate. “Can we say that there is freedom when so many politicians spend so much money to contest elections?” For South Africa’s former reconstruction minister and labour activist Jay Naidoo, the continued push of money and power into democracy is dangerous and is corrupting government, leading to cases of “demokratura”, where you have the window dressing of democracy without genuine representation of the people. “We are seeing electoral authoritarianism,” he explained. THE AFRICA REPORT

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N ° 76

Strongman rule was one of the many governance weaknesses discussed at the debate. One question from the hall: “How do we get a democracy of ideas and issues rather than a democracy of tribalism and identity?” On that front, the debate participants were unable to come up with a one-size-fits-all recommendation. Ultimately, panelists on both sides of the debate agreed that the quality of the democracy is crucial. Experts in attendance also provided solutions for reform.

Franklin Cudjoe, head of Ghana thinktank the IMANI Center for Policy & Education, pointed to the phenomenon of the “imperial presidency”,wherebythepresident has the ability to directly appoint 4,000 posts, leaving huge room for corruption and partisan choices. He argued that reforms must create checks and balances on executive power. In the end, the debate was summed up by Tedros Adhanom, the foreign minister of Ethiopia, who was keen to stress Ethiopia’s commitment to both sides of the argument: “Bread without democracy is bitter. Democracy without bread is fragile.” The Ghana debate was just the first in what promises to be a series of debates on the theme of tough talk on development. If you have suggestions for future debate topics, please look for us on Facebook or Twitter. ● Nicholas Norbrook

CLASSIFIED ADS

IS LEADING IN AFRICA DIFFERENT FROM LEADING IN THE REST OF THE WORLD? WHY OR WHY NOT? By Munyaradzi Chifetete, Zimbabwe

REIMAGINING AFRICAN LEADERSHIP – THOUGHTS ON STEERING AFRICA “I am the spirit indigenous of a time that existed before me, Who understood that time was nothing but A space that existed before me, To give opportunity to the man that existed after me You have to understand that for me to be an African, I have to be something that breathes Oh, of everything that lived before me…” – Larry Kwirirayi, “Afr-I-Can”

“Uongozi” means leadership in Kiswahili, and inspiring and strengthening leadership is the core purpose of our organisation. Based in Dar es Salaam, T anzania, Tanzania, UONGOZI Institute is dedicated to supporting African leaders to attain sustainable development for their nations and for Africa. The African Leadership Forum (ALF), an initiative by H.E Excellency Benjamin W illiam Mkapa, former William President of T anzania, a Tanzania, supported by UONGOZI Institute, was held on July 30th, 2015 in Dar es Salaam. The essay competition awarding ceremony which is held concurrently with this event aims to providing a space for the youth of East and Southern Africa and the next generation of leaders in the region to contribute to important discussions on leadership. A grand prize of USD $2,000 is awarded to the overall ! "##$%& ! '$%$ ( ))*)(+ *)(+ * .$ !"##$%& !'$%$ *,, -.$ winners are selected. This year the second prize winner received $1,000, third prize $500, fourth prize $300 and ,)' / %"0$ 1 2334 -,)' /%"0$ 12334

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CLASSIFIED ADS

Twenty-one Tw wen nty-on nty-one one year y old o Munyaradzi Chifetete from Z mba Zim abwe e rec receives ceive an a award certificate from former Zimbabwe President of Botswana H.E Festus Mogae after being P side Pr Presi ent o Botswan Bo otswa announced of UONGOZI Institute’s an nno oun nced ced overall over ove erall winner w Leadership 2015 held at the African Lea Le eade ership p Essay Essa ay Competition Co Leadership Lea ade ership p Forum Foru um in n Dar es Salaam this July. Looking on Chief Officer for UONGOZI Institute on is the t Ch hief Executive Execu u Prof. Pro of. Joseph JJosep eph ph Semboja. Sem mbojja

The Th he ALF A was also attended by former form rmer Presidents Oluseg egu eg gun Obasanjo of Olusegun Nig N igeria, geria Jerry geria, J Je Nigeria, Rawlings Ghana, ana Ba B of Ghana, Bakili Muluzi of Ma awi, Malaw wi,, Festus F Festu Fes est st s Mogae s M Malawi, of !"#$%&' '& & &'( &'( )*+,-./'0)*+,-./'0!"#$%&'& Poha hamb mba of N Nam amibia, bia, with with Pohamba Namibia, he e overarching overa erarch ra arching g theme the eme me the ““Mo “M Moving Towards To owa an n of “Moving Integrat Int grated d Africa: Africa Africa: What Wh hat Integrated n eds to be don one?” needs done?” T one-day on nen ne e---day foru e e-day orum m was The forum kick-sta k-started k-star stta ta ed by a public kick-started plena lenary which whic hich gathered ga gather plenary 1"2- #3&' #3&' 456 456 ,-0 ,-0 *'7/-'#*&8 *'7/-'#*&8 1"2ers and thinkers inkers across leaders nt, including inclu the continent, the former Heads of State, and leaders from business, government, civil society and academia. The keynote address was delivered by His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, Yoweri President of the Republic of Uganda. The African Leadership annually. The Forum is held annually. +2$# 9"2/1 9"2/1 #"", #"", .8&:.8&:- *' *' ;64< ;64< +2$# with the theme ‘Meeting the Africa’s Challenges of Africa’s Transformation’. Transformation’. For more information: Visit: www.uongozi.or.tz www.uongozi.or.tz Visit: info@uongozi.orr..tz Email: info@uongozi.or.tz Call: +255 22 2602917

With that being said, you realize alize a lize e that th t Africa is o on a dif diffe ffe ff f rentt developmental path th from m the th rre est est of the world. Our challengess a are e vvasstly tly dif d fffe eren nt and an th the e wa way ay we approach the these e pr probl blemss will w &.0'. ,%+ "+(/.-",+*) ('& %$"#"!(".$* ,%+ &.1"#'* (1 ( -,'"#'.'"7 6$,'51#&. "4. +(2#& &.3.$,2!.'" occurring on our continent nt thatt has h s seen see en us leapfrog le eapf pfrog g most mo ost tec technical adv advanc anceme ents, nts w we fa face ce th he threat of diseases such ha as m mal alaria ria an nd HIV H , ext xtrem me p pove ertyy and looming loomi ming g climate climat ate te change chan nge. nge e. Our population is booming ing ng, n g and d emp mplo ploy oyymen ent cchall ch hallenges lleng gess resu resultin ng from m thiss are a e re real al and and ass assu ure ur ed. ed d However, Africa has has all a it ne eeds ee ds tto tth hwar art th these ese e thr hreats ts. Its s leaders eade ders rs wil w need wi will need d to o ma mana anage ge th th he abundant nt natu na atural a tural rreso sou ources es o on the th cont ntinen ent to o pro ovide e econ nomic omi mic op oppo pportu pp porrtunit nities e for orr all. a l. Thes The T hese se e res es sources urces a are are ours rs and dA Africca a’s leade le dershi leadership hip should sh uld no not ot be ashamed ash asha amed me ed d to o claim cla c aim m them, tth the them em,, and a and as as they tthe th do so, so need n to t be entrepreneurial en entrepr preneu eurial al in i identifying id dentify ntif tifying ng how ow we can can best be utilize util tilize l ze e our assets asse sets s to o achieve a achiev prosperity rity. In a as much ch as ch a Africa Aff ca is a continent con cont ntinent ine that th ha req requires and pr provides rovvides the e op opportunity ppo port rtunit un uni nitityy for a unique ni uniqu type of leadership, type leadership ership,, we cannot cann ann not ignore ign gnore nore the he fact that ourr continent cconttinen nt does d do oess not nott exist e ex xis is st in a bubble. bubbl Te Te ech ec echnol chnology gyy tthrough thrrough iinter nternet conn onnectivit tivity has opened a ne ew gate g off reality ty. Our Ourr youth y are being bein exposed to exp exposed o the h outside outsid de world d more ore and more and are learning le ea arnin ng about abo out other herr cultures cu c ltu ures other than tha th ir own, in thei n and an outside outsid the e continent. c This new knowled dge e is sha s aping i tthe e way wayy Africans think a o abo about out ut the world wor and their the responsibility re to our planet. Th he African Africa an leader leade ea ad de er h has ha has, as, therefore, th as, the unique challenge challeng of keeping the African agenda a top p prio orityy in tth he min mind dss of of Afric ca’s youth. In order to do so, African leaders need to exploit new media that tha at has ha ta ake en th he e wo world by by storm. The ormation technology carries in n Africa a are a e en norm rm mou ou African ous. Afri an leaders Africa Afric leade potential capabilities that information should be pushing the ICT age in Africa because if we do not no par p rticipat c pat ate no now w, we w will willl n no not ot be b part mbers of the global community, we we shou sh hou h ould o d em e emphasize mph phasiz asize the asize th he e need n nee ed to of tomorrow’s reality. As members 2+,/.-" ,%+ 69+#-(' 3#.8 ", "4. 5$,;. ('& #'=%.'-. "4. 8,+$& 3#.87 >4#1 -(' ;. &,'. derr to o sh are re e ou stor orie ries a ast as stt through harnessing mobile cellular access in Africa in order share our st stories and va vast vation onss tto o cchallenges challe alleng nges ges that tha th hatt iinvolve inv nvolvve v contributions internationally as well as provide unique innovations access to services and resources. <#"4 5$,;($#:("#,') 8. 0'& "4(" 69+#-( ,--%2#.1 ( 12(-. #' "4. 8,+$& 84.+. #" #1 +.?%#+.& ", 8,+@ n the continent are ccomm ommon on is iissue ssue es with the rest of the globe. Some of the issues that we face on common issues mon solutions solutio o io olution that are faced elsewhere on Earth. Being common problems, they require commo e will that require collaboration from Africa’s leaders and other leaders in the world. Thus, we need to collaborate with the rest of the world in the way that we solve these problems in an endeavour to preserve the planet for future generations. Finally, Africa is a rich continent, with a diverse array of history, culture and people. Its resources, at it needs to take offf. f Leading it is not only a challenge, but an human and natural, are what honour that most people would dream of experiencing. What it takes is for current and future leaders of Africa to appreciate that this space that they hold or will hold, existed before them so that they could create opportunities for the generations that will exist after.

DOSSIER MINING

End of the supercycle Many commodity prices have dropped since 2014 and companies are scrambling to deal with the aftermath and plot a path to long-term growth in African mining projects By Michelle Madsen

COMPANIES & MARKETS

CHARLES O’REAR/CORBIS

he deepest rout in commodities prices in more than a decade has seen a fundamental reconfiguration of Africa’s mining sector. The past year has seen China’s growth slow sharply, driving prices down and prompting waves of mines across the continent to shut up shop, regardless of size. The resource landscape has never looked bleaker for some – from the troubles of seemingly invincible Swiss commodities giant Glencore to the hundreds of exploration and development projects quietly disappearing from company prospectuses. Mine closuresandprojectcancellationshave also gutted the fortunes of currenciesdependentonmineralexports. With the commodity supercycle showing no signs of swinging back into a bull market, the short-term outlook for Africa’s miners given by international funding bodies and banks remains gloomy. Some countries and companies are better positioned to weather the storm. And despite the risky environment, a clutch of investors is poised to step in to pick up potentially lucrative projects that cash-constrained owners have been looking to dump. In this falling market, the profitability of even high-grade mines has been compromised, with miners large and small looking to rationalise their assets and strip businesses to the core. Swiss mining giant Glencore, which championed its diversified structure to investors at the time of its 2011 London listing as a safeguard against dropping prices in any one product, has emerged as one of the more unexpected victims. Glencore saw its share price dive by 30% overnight in September after a London-based analyst questioned the viability of the company’s huge balance sheet.

In response, Glencore’s management team has sped up its asset rationalisation process, imposing cuts to loss-making arms of the business in a bid to reduce debt. In September Glencore’s Katanga copper-mining unit in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and its Mopani copper mine in Zambia were suspended, knocking 400,000tn of copper cathode out of the market and cutting more than 4,000 jobs. GLASENBERG LASHES OUT

Glencore’s chief executive officer Ivan Glasenberg, a South African himself, has said that the company remains committed to the continent and that it plans to reopen closed mines if they can be made competitive. Glasenberg has been outspoken against his rivals’ policy to keep loss-making mines open, suggesting that to do so will doom the entire sector to failure. Some of Glasenberg’s harshest criticisms have been levelled against mining majors Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale, which have all raced to ramp up output in a bid to outpace their rivals as the lowest-cost producer of iron ore. While BHP Billiton, Vale and Rio Tinto still retain a footprint in Africa, all have refocused towards their core businesses in the past three years. Amid the price slump, which has driven iron ore prices down to below $50/tn from 2011 highs of more than $180/tn, any projects deemed high risk have lost their lustre. Rio Tinto sold its 78% stake in Zimbabwe’s Murowa diamonds in June after the government announced it would merge all local producers into one company that the state would hold a 50% stake in. Rio Tinto has also been accused of dragging its heels over the development of its half of the Simandou project in Guinea, pushing money not into Africa but into Australia,

DOSSIER | MINING

where its iron ore business is on track to overtake that of Vale as largest in the world. It is not expected that the company will bid for the second half of the Simandou project when the Guinean government restarts a long-awaited tender process for the concession. While major miners retrench to ride out the storm, high-cost juniors, many of which only started production at the top of the cycle, are foundering, if not sinking. In West Africa, Ebola outbreak, coupled with dramatically declining prices, practically halted the development of all new mines and saw operations at some more established projects grind to a halt. African Minerals’ Tonkolili iron ore mine in Sierra Leone ran into financial difficulties and stopped production at the end of 2014. Its partner, Chinese state-owned enterprise Shandong Iron and Steel Group stepped in to take over Tonkolili as African Minerals went bankrupt in April 2015. Despite assurances given by Sierra Leone’s

president, Ernest Bai Koroma, output from the mine is yet to restart and contractors are yet to be repaid outstanding debts. Close to Guinea’s border with Liberia,London-listedjuniorSable Mining is stuck in an impasse with ArcelorMittal over a key rail line that would give its Nimba iron ore projectaccesstoaport.Progresson the Nimba project has gone quiet and recently the company’s focus has swung back to chief executive Andrew Groves’s country of origin, Zimbabwe. The company signed a deal in September to develop a 600MW coal-fired power station with major Chinese state-owned enterprise CITIC. SP Angel mining analyst John Meyer tells The Africa Report that while the perception among some in the market was that publicly listed companies were bearing the brunt of the slump, in reality the private end of the market was suffering equally, if not more. “The shake-up has caused people who were developing projects to

55% Drop in the market capitalisation of South Africa’s top 35 listed miners from June to October 2015 SOURCE: PWC

INTERVIEW

Alan Davies Chief executive for diamonds and minerals, Rio Tinto

Attractiveness is more important than short-term fluctuations THE ANGLO-AUSTRALIAN miner currently has exploration projects in Botswana, Gabon, Mozambique and Namibia. It sold its Mozambican coking coal business in 2014 for $50m after buying it in 2011 for more than $3bn. Rio Tinto’s chief executive for diamonds and minerals, Alan Davies, explains how he sees the company’s future in Africa: “When we look to invest in a project, it is for the long term. So long-term attractiveness and potential is far more important than short-term price fluctuations.” He says that

the current period of low prices will lead to another cycle of growth: “Mining has played a leading role in Africa’s strong economic performance – and, given the fact that a third of the world’s mineral reserves are in this continent, that’s likely to continue.” Davies argues that miners and government need to rethink their strategies: “We have been operating in Africa for many decades and the potential is huge, but there is a need for generational thinking by industry to prioritise long-term benefits or risk undermining the partnership

with the host nation and, in doing so, the long-term viability of the enterprise.” The downturn is leading governments to emphasise diversification again, and Davies says that companies have a role to play: “In many developing nations, mining can be the most important channel for foreign investment. As an industry, we are uniquely positioned to act as catalysts for […] broader economic growth. The ideal outcome sees mining assist with building more resilient communities and indeed stronger and more diverse economies.” ● M.M. THE AFRICA REPORT

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throw in the towel, so some people are picking up projects at bargain prices,” says Meyer, adding that exploration companies in particular were struggling to stay afloat. The burning question is who is ready to invest? China has long been seen as the go-to partner for infrastructure-heavy, capitalintensive African mining projects. But with its government in the process of reforming the stateowned enterprise sector, China has adopted a more cautious attitude towards investment in Africa and greenfield investment has plunged in the past year. GUINEA ASSETS

A number of privately owned Chinese companies continue to pick up assets, however. China Sonangol took over the Kalia iron oreprojectinGuineawhenitspartner Bellzone collapsed last year. Also in Guinea, China Hongqiao started mining bauxite from a joint venture project in March. A more hopeful picture emerges from a handful of cash-rich junior gold miners. Aureus Mining in Liberia has stepped in to pick up three new gold licences adjacent to itsNewLibertymine.SouthAfrican Sibanye is also looking acquisitive, trading on its low overheads topick up attractive assets at low prices. “Sibanye is the nimble up-andcomer and aims to maintain this as Randgold has done,” an analyst who requests anonymity explains. In the DRC, Australian-listed junior Tiger Resources received a $165m investment in the Kipoi copper project from the International Finance Corporation in October, allowing it to refinance and expand its operations. South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation said in October that it planned to invest in Alphamin, a tin miner with operations in North Kivu province. While some level of investment is still flowing into the mining space, the commodities slump has been seen by some as an opportunity for African economies to diversify away from the resources space and into sectors that guarantee higher returns for citizens of the countries themselves. ● N ° 76

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D E C E M B E R 2 015 - J A N UA R Y 2 016

Experience the Progress.

www.liebherr.com info.lex@liebherr.com www.facebook.com/LiebherrConstruction

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DOSSIER | MINING

The huge Kpeme phosphate mining project represents a significant boost for Togo

phoenix-like moment for an industry that was once a pillar of the Togolese economy, representing 40% of state revenues. Production fell from 3m tonnes in the 1990s to under 1m currently. While this contract reinforces Elenilto’s stake on the continent, where the company already has oil andminingprojects,foritsChinese partner Wengfu this is a first. The state-owned group, a world leader in phosphates and fertilisers, will provide about 40% of the funds for the Kpeme project. The company is expanding internationally, and Wengfu is seeking further opportunities on the continent. The firm is said to be in discussions with Morocco, Tunisia and Senegal.

JACQUES TORREGANO FOR JA

WORLD-CLASS PROJECT

PHOSPHATES

Green ore glimmers

Low prices are not putting off international investors, who are piling into the phosphates sector in Togo, Guinea-Bissau, Gabon and Senegal, confident of future fertiliser needs

s renaissance in the air for the phosphate sector? Multinationals are jockeying for position, seeing potential in the continent’s push for food security and its current low fertiliser use: 4.7kg per resident compared to 200kg in India or China. While phosphate prices have fallen, with good-grade ore costing about $100 per tonne compared to $400 in 2008-2009, investment remains buoyant. In early September, Togo awarded the huge Kpeme project to extract and process carbonated phosphate to Elenilto, the Israeli

group led by Jacob Engen. With one of the largest deposits in subSaharan Africa (reserves are estimated at 2bn tonnes), the $1.4bn project will see the construction of a phosphoric acid plant and a fertiliser plant in the next three years. In the long term, the 30-year concession is expected to yield more than $28bn in revenue, with annual export of 3m tonnes of concentrated phosphate, 500,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid and 1.3 million tonnes of fertiliser products. And, it is hoped, it will create 1,000 new jobs. It is a THE AFRICA REPORT

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Several days after the announcement of Elenilto’s and Wengfu’s arrival in Togo, Toronto-based GB Minerals said it would invest in Guinea-Bissau’s Farim phosphate project, which it calls “world-class”. According to CEO Luis da Silva, the deposit would allow the production of 1.75m tonnes of phosphates per year for 25 years. Initial start-up costs would be low, around $193.8 million. “The market price of rock phosphate is at its lowest level since 2007 and no one is sure that it will rise significantly. Under these conditions, investments carry a lot more risk and investors are reluctant to follow through,” says Imad Bouziane, vice president for Africa andtheMiddleEastatUSchemical and fertiliser trader Nitron Group. “Given the current market situation, the production costs of the Farim project in Guinea-Bissau remain, from my point of view, high,” he continues. “There is little chance that we will see this project develop in the short term. The same holds true for Togo, where the layer of carbonated phosphate targeted in ongoing discussions is deep and expensive to extract”. The problem, according to Bouziane, a former African director for the Moroccan ● ● ●

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● ● ● group Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) and the US firm Transammonia, is that although it makes sense, in theory, to process phosphate into fertiliser locally, investments would have to be made in high-capacity units that can benefit from economies of scale and compete with market leaders. But the global fertiliser market is currently in over-capacity and the world’s largest producers, whether Russian, American or Chinese, are themselves seeking markets on the continent. “These competitors haveamajorasset:backhomethey produce fertilisers at competitive prices and have, for the most part, amortised their industrial investments”, says Bouziane.

UNSTOPPABLE OCP

This has not cowed the industry leader, Morocco’s OCP, which owns over half of global reserves. Though previously focused on American and Asian markets, OCP announced a partnership in 2014 with Gabon’s Société Equatoriale des Mines to build two factories in Gabon. A total of $2bn is allocated for the projects and joint output is anticipated at 2m tonnes by 2018. OCP also wants to build another Moroccan plant in Jorf Lasfar for $600m. Its production of 1m tonnes would be earmarked for sub-Saharan markets. Onto this packed stage arrives Indonesia’s Indorama. The firm bought up 78% of Industries Chimiques du Senegal (ICS) in August 2014. The Indonesian conglomerate took over as majority shareholder from the Indian cooperative IFFCO, which retains a 6.78% stake, by offering what ICS needed most: more cash. One week after signing the agreement, Indorama spent $100m on clearing the debt owed to subcontractors and refurbishing the group’s three main sites in order to relaunch production. These are Taiba, a mineral deposit 100km from Dakar, Darou, a phosphoric acid production site near Taiba, and Mbao, a fertiliser production site in a Dakar suburb. In all, says Alassane Diallo, CEO of ICS, “Indorama is committed to investing $225m to

ULRICH LEBEUF/M.Y.O.P.

Tunisia’s CPG hits the rocks THE COMPAGNIE DES PHOSPHATES DE GAFSA (CPG) lost €8.8m in 2014. Prospects for the Tunisian company continue to look gloomy as it struggles to recover from the disruption caused by the 2011 revolution. In the first eight months of 2015, CPG produced only 1.6m tonnes, well below expectations of 4.2m tonnes, says Hafedh Ben Yahia, who is responsible for monitoring and production control. The problem is recurrent strikes, including by the 1,700 workers of the Société Tunisienne de Transport des Produits Miniers (STTPM). Due to depleted raw materials stocks, the entire chain of production, from extraction to processing, was stopped from the end of 2014 until March 2015. The firm, which used to represent 4 per cent of Tunisia’s GDP and 10 per cent of its export revenues, posted losses of over €1bn between 2011 and 2013. To get its processing plants back in working order, it is reconstituting its stocks of phosphates, which rose from 24,000tn in May to 250,000tn in August. Tunisia will struggle to regain its rank as the world’s fifth phosphate producer. ● Frida Dahmani in Tunis

ensure a total renovation of all the production units.” These efforts are beginning to pay off. The Taiba mine, whose reserves are estimated at 60-70m tonnes, produces 3,500tn per day of marketable phosphate. And the production capacity of phosphoric acid at the two Darou plants has doubled to 2,030tn per day. Most of the production is sold to India. ICS has a fertiliser production capacity of 300,000tn per year, which is greater than Senegal’s currentneeds.A secondfertiliserplant is planned for the Mbao site, which will boost capacity to 1m tonnes and allow export to the 16 members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as well as to the rest of Africa. But can they remain costcompetitive and get their product to farmers? Elenilto and Wengfu

say they can produce at low cost due to a connection to the West African gas pipeline near the Autonomous Port of Lomé. GB Minerals says its production costs will be, on average, $52 per tonne for the lifetime of the Farim deposit, which is located near the Atlantic Ocean, providing access to international and African markets. As for OCP, it is engaged in an ambitious policy to invest $1bn per year through 2020 and is counting on its underground pipelines to reduce transportation costs. The group is relying on regional corridors, including Dakar-Bamako, Abidjan-Ouagadougou and CotonouNiamey, to distribute fertiliser produced for African markets. ●

2bn tonnes Togo may have up to 2bn tonnes of phosphate reserves, the largest in sub-Saharan Africa

Amadou Oury Diallo and Stéphane Ballong for Jeune Afrique

SOURCE: ELENILTO

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ART & LIFE

A guide to

2016

We speak to Nigerian writer A. Igoni Barrett about his debut novel, Blackass. Don’t miss our cultural highlights of the year, a chance to catch up with the deluge of great music, books and film from the continent. We also look ahead to the bright spots of 2016, speaking to Efya, Hajooj Kuka, Marie-Cécile Zinsou and Chris Abani. Plus, Tastemakers Africa give their tips on where to travel, eat, stay and relax. By Ainehi Edoro, Katarina Hedrén in Johannesburg, Billie Adwoa McTernan in Accra, Phiona Okumu, Rose Skelton in Bamako, Tameshia Rudd-Ridge in Accra for The Tastemakers and Henry Brefo from the Afrikult literary platform THE AFRICA REPORT

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BOOKS

A. Igoni Bar

“I don’t like Lagos. I’d rather live in a tre A. Igoni Barrett is an icon for young black writers looking to find their own voice. With his new novel his crusade is to raise up popular fiction

aving spent eight months in near solitude crafting his debut novel, Blackass, A. Igoni Barrett bashfully emanates the romantic image of the recluse who shuns societal pleasures to produce a masterpiece. It is something that most writers, established and budding, can only dream about, but at 36 the prize-winning Nigerian author already has a decade of publishing under his belt and an international reputation for

his short story collections, From Caves of Rotten Teeth and Love is Power, or Something Like That. Hungry for more, his readers pounced on news of the forthcoming novel. When Blackass was released in the UK in July, Nigerian fans were already ordering it online, ahead of the Nigeria release in October. It will be published in the US in March. With Lagos as its setting, the novel follows the hapless Furo Wariboko, who

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ART & LIFE

his mother’s coveted romantic paperbacks. At that point he asked his father to teach him how to read. “By the time I was 10, I could write a Mills & Boon book from my head. I needed something more challenging and so I moved to [Alex Haley’s AfricanAmerican saga] Roots,” he says. After that there was no looking back and the young Barrett would spend all available time reading. Lorna Doone and Lady Chatterley’s Lover were some of his earlier reads; Portnoy’s Complaint and Kafka would come later. Using books as a sounding board for his own ideas about the world, he developed a growing compulsion to write: “As I read there were things I disagreed with and things I absolutely agreed with, and so at a point I felt those needed to be expressed.”

rrett

ehouse somewhere” goes to sleep as a black Nigerian, but wakes up as a white man. Barrett brings a comic approach to this tale of two cities: one Lagos for the majority of Nigerians, and another for the more privileged. “I wanted a style where even a Nigerian who has never read literary fiction but maybe loves Mills & Boon or loves John Grisham can enter the book and get something out of it,” he says, sitting forward with excitement and gesticulating. THE AFRICA REPORT

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“It was in a sense my most populous book I have written so far. I’m not sure if I’d do that again.” He’s now laughing as he reclines back into his seat. “But that was the idea.” He may be seen as a writer’s writer, but Mills & Boon is where it all started for the precocious infant Barrett. As a threeor four-year-old, he confides, it wasn’t picture books that piqued his curiosity to read, or even his father – renowned Jamaican writer Lindsay Barrett. It was

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TOM SAATER FOR TAR

GAP ON THE SHELVES

Never forgetting where his interest in reading first came from, Barrett believes that popular fiction has its importance in society: “There is a huge gap in Nigerian publishing in popular literature. You go to airports anywhere in the world and you will see popular writers like John Grisham and Danielle Steel,” he says, pointing out that the Nigerian equivalents hardly exist among the self-help books and Christian literature that monopolise popular publishing. “Not all books are meant to elucidate on a life issue or be about great writing,” he explains. “Sometimes people just want to be entertained. And yet we don’t have enough of that. If a reader is curious enough, they will eventually move on from popular fiction into something else. Or they will still read popular fiction but would also want something else that will bring some nuance to their reading of popular fiction.” And so it is that with Blackass Barrett hopes to entertain readers while still passing on subliminal messages that encourage questions about leadership and ownership,sobuildingstronger individuals and, by extension, stronger societies. As the story opens, Furo Wariboko is, in many ways, the average Lagosian. He lives in a no-frills neighbourhood, similar to the author, who lives on the mainland,

ART & LIFE

over the bridge and miles away from the writers to have their work published approach to their work, while noting bright lights of the island. As a young reby editors who understand their use that some talent is also non-negotiable. cent graduate, Wariboko is struggling to “The writers I admire the most were of language. In his early days of being find work – a problem for many Nigerian all self-made writers,” he says. “Faulkner, published – mostly outside of Nigeria – youths – and his roots are not in Lagos. Garcia Marquez or Achebe, [they] felt he says he found himself “fighting, defending my use of language, defending “In many ways we are all Lagosians who live here, but my characters, defending my charac“The process of learning how to when it comes to existential ters’ names.” write on your own is important. questions then we are told It was through his work at Blackbiro It’s like building muscles” that the publishing house Farafina Books we are not. I am not even someone who called myself approached him to become an editor. strongly enough about what they had He spent two years there, during which a Lagosian because really, I don’t like Lato say that they found the tools and gos. I’d rather live in a treehouse sometime he was writing Love is Power, or where. But for a writer, this is where it’s at.” figured out how to say it. The process Something Like That. All the while he Barrett was born and raised in Port of learning how to write on your own was also organising book tours and Harcourt, the state capital of the oilis important to your voice as a writer. monthly ‘book jams’ that brought torich Rivers State in south-east Nigeria. It’s like building muscles.” gether writers, novelists and literature He didn’t move to Lagos until he was in enthusiasts for discussions and readings. Known to some in the industry as He stepped down from that in 2011, but his twenties. Despite his love-hate relaa “literary activist”, in 2006 Barrett tionship with the city, before he knew co-founded Blackbiro, an online literary a revival in a new venue could possibly platform to provide an outlet for new who the character was he knew that be on the cards in the coming year. this was going to be his “Lagos book”. “Apart from Lagos there is hardly any other place where that mix of people of different cultures is so vibrant. As ‘The buka’, excerpt from Blackass an artist I am drawn to that,” he says. THE PHOENIX RISES

Though he had long been a keen reader, Barrett’s writing was more secret. While studying for a degree in agriculture – he first hoped he’d be a farmer – he wrote short stories and joined online writing platforms to have his work critiqued by fellow writers as far away as Australia. This was, he says, his own sort of rigorous creative writing programme. His cover was blown when, in 2005, he won the BBC World Service short story competition with his story ‘The Phoenix’, which was broadcast across the globe. He presses on the need for discipline and professionalism in a writer’s

Blackass found a new following with the release of the US edition, pictured

WHEN THE MIND IS AT REST the body shouts its demands. Furo Wariboko, back on the streets of Lagos, now realised how hungry he was. Weak with it, his head aching, stomach juices churning, his breath reeking with it. He considered his options. He had eight hundred naira left from the money he’d borrowed from Ekemini, and that amount would just about cover a meal at Mr Biggs, the cheapest of the fast food chains. But he was reluctant to spend everything. Thus far he had refused to spoil his happy mood by thinking about where next to go, where to sleep tonight, but somewhere behind the wall of his mind he knew there was no going back. No choice then. He had to eat in a roadside buka. The roadway beside him was jammed with traffic, cars crawled along at a pace that turned the drivers’ faces tight with frustration, okadas tore through gaps that even the bravest hawkers feared to enter, and petrol fumes THE AFRICA REPORT

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ART & LIFE

“I love Wole Soyinka’s work and I love the position he holds in this space, but at the same time I have seen too many African writers not question and not challenge, they just worship,” he says. Barrett presses on the importance of publishing where he lives so that a conversation can be had about what he is writing. “If I hadn’t found a publisher in Nigeria, I would have published myself in this country or bought copies and sold them myself.” He also strives to reach a wider readership and insists that his work should be read in Francophone Africa. His deal with Editions Zulma will ensure this happens with the release of Love is Power in French in late September 2016. But he won’t just keep writing for the sake of writing. “When the job is done it is done,” he says bluntly. “Once I get

from overheated engines disinfected the air. Like oases on a desert caravan route, apprentice mechanics and child vulcanisers and motor oil vendors loitered in roadside sheds. Exhausted vehicles dotted the curb, some with bonnets opened to let out steam from gasping radiators. A riot of honking assailed the ears: short warning honks, long angry honks, continuous harrying honks, sirenmimicking honks: a language as universal as a scream. But in Lagos, overused. The clamour was deafening. ‘Oyibo!’ someone yelled from across the road, and Furo, startled out of his fascination with automotive babel, glanced over. Vivid in her Fanta-bright shirt and white gloves, a traffic warden sat on a truck tyre under the shade of a neem tree. She was eating a peeled orange that was gripped in her right hand; when she realised she had caught Furo’s attention, she grinned and gave him a left-handed wave. Furo moved his gaze along. Beside the neem tree, outside the shadows cast by its leaves, stood a threelegged easel blackboard, and scrawled on its surface in pink THE AFRICA REPORT

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▲ Humanae is an ongoing project by the Brazilian photographer Angélica Dass, who intends to catalogue the entire chromatic range of human skintones in an attempt to dilute the false pre-eminence of some races over others based on skin colour.

to the point where I feel I have said all I have to say, that’s that.” Readers can only hope that day is in the distant future as Barrett undoubtedly has more to share. “There are a certain number of books in me. When the passion is not there I will not be the same writer. Until then,” he pauses, perhaps thinking back to his agricultural student days, “make hay while the sun shines.” ● Billie Adwoa McTernan in Lagos

chalk was the legend, FOOD IS READY. Furo stepped onto the road, squeezed his way between trapped vehicles and strode across to the buka, a lean-to backed against a block fence and hung on the front and sides with white lace curtains. As he parted the front curtain, he heard the traffic warden exclaim, ‘Where this oyibo man dey go?’ and from the corner of his eye he saw her rise to her feet and fling away her suck-shriveled orange. He ducked into the buka. A middle-aged woman with a red hairpiece cut in a bob sat on a barstool behind a table laden with aluminium pots. Three benches were arranged in front of the table. A man dressed like a construction labourer […] sat astride one of the benches, and in front of him was a sweating bottle of Pepsi, a plate of okra soup, and three wraps of fufu, one opened. The fermented whiff of cassava meal mixed with the aroma of boiled okra and fish made Furo lightheaded, and he sat down quickly and placed his folder beside him. He looked up to catch the food seller staring at him, as was the labourer, his hand motionless in his soup-smeared fufu.

PICTURES BY ANGÉLICA DASS

With a full-time job and extracurricular literary event organising on his plate at the same time, it took him five years to finish the collection of stories in Love is Power, which was published in 2013. He was able to finish the final stretch thanks to an invitation from Binyavanga Wainaina to take up a fellowship in Nairobi offered by the Chinua Achebe Center. The last story in the book is set in that city. With the work he’s done – and hopes to continue doing – in trying to broaden the discussion about Nigerian literature, Barrett knows that there is still some way to go. He was unsuccessful in taking his book tours and readings to universities, which he says are intent on their Soyinka-Achebe dichotomy. He says he is keen to encourage critical conversations among writers of all generations.

From not so humble beginnings…

mbolo Mbue’s debut novel, Behold the Dreamers became the most expensive African fiction manuscript after Random House paid a whopping million dollars for the US rights. Anticipation surrounding the novel has soared but we still have to wait until August 2016 for it to hit the shelves. It weaves a suspenseful drama around the 2008 financial crisis from the point of view of a Lehman Brothers executive and his Cameroonian chauffeur. In February, we’ll see the official coming out of Johwor Ile, a protégé of Chimamanda Adichie. The novel titled And After Many Days (Tim Duggan Books) is a dark family drama set in Port Harcourt, and according to Taiye Selasi, it hits the perfect point where “page-turner” meets “poetry.” Following Roland Glasser’s acclaimed English translation of Tram 83 by Congo’s Fiston Mwanza Mujila, Deep Vellum plans to release two more African titles in 2016: The Curious Case of Dassoukine’s Trousers, short stories by Moroccan writer Fouad Laroui, and Mauritania’s Ananda Devi’s novel Eve Out of Her Ruins. Helen Oyeyemi takes a break from writing novels with a collection of short stories titled What Is Not Yours Is Not Yours (Riverhead Books), out in March. And the same month the winner of the third Etisalat Prize will be announced at a gala in Lagos. ●

Chris Abani, Author

BOOKS

ART & LIFE

MYSTERY WRITERS OF AMERICA/SPELIOTIS PHOTOGRAPHY

“I just received the new cover galleys for my novel The Secret History of Las Vegas with its ‘Edgar Winner’ sticker on it and I’m excited. I’m also looking forward to Teju Cole’s Known and Strange Things. This new book of essays is a compilation of all of Cole’s best work for the New York Times and others and promises to cover subjects like photography, travel, citizenship, state and the complexities of global racism. Cole’s writing is masterful and lyrical and politically and socially engaged, and he is probably one of the most interesting African writers at work today. From his Small Fates to his novels and photographs and now this book of essays, Teju never disappoints."

Young talents go feature length in 2016

FILM

Hajooj Kuka Film director

“In 2016 I will start producing short training films by first-time filmmakers, a few theatre sketches and a theatre piece with a drama collective that I spearheaded. I am also entering pre-production on my first narrative film, a comedy set in the Sudanese war zone. At the film festivals I attended in 2015 I acquired a real thirst for films made by my contemporaries. Filmmaking is opening up, thanks to new, more accessible technologies. I am excited to see what the next generation will create. I hope that the war in Sudan will end in 2016. It would open a window of freedom and some resources could go into art creation. [Artistically] 2016-2020 will be an important period in Sudan especially for art from the war-torn area."

JEMAL COUNTESS/GETTY IMAGES

mong the new generation of progressive filmmakers is GhanaianAmericanAkosuaAdomaOwusu. In 2016 she will release Reluctantly Queer, a cinematic essay about a young gay man’s relationship with his mother. Cédric Ido from Burkina Faso has also set high expectations with his highly engaging, partly animated superhero short Twaaga. Ido is in pre-production of a feature, La Vie de Château, to be shot in Paris in 2016. Ishaya Bako, whose 2012 documentary FuellingPovertyabouttheOccupyNigeria movement was banned in that country, has made his first feature, Road to Yesterday. It is released in Nigeria in late 2015 and will hit the festival circuit in 2016. After dazzling with her short film Afronautes, about the failed Zambian mission to the moon, Frances Bodomo will be shooting the feature film next year. And in South Africa, interventions aimed at stimulating black and women’s filmmaking hold promise for 2016. ●

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ART & LIFE

Got the whole world in their hands

he shifting trajectory of Africa’s live music landscape continues in 2016. Sadly, Zanzibar’s monumental Sauti za Busara festival – which over the years has hosted local legends like the late Bi Kidude and more recent stars like Alikiba – has been cancelled for lack of funds. On the other hand, renowned New Orleans-based Essence Music Festival will debut its African incarnation in Durban in the summer after agreeing a three-year partnership with eThekwini Municipality. Two of Nigeria’s and Africa’s biggest artists are getting ready to stage fully fledged interna-

tional careers. Wizkid and Davido will release new albums in the year, propelled by record deals with major labels in the UK. Veteran Senegalese musician Baaba Maal’s 11th album, recorded in Senegal and the UK and titled The Traveller, comes out in January 2016. Produced by Johan Hugo, it promises a blend of African roots and more contemporary electronic influences, and includes a collaboration with Winston Marshall of Mumford & Sons. The multi-talented Rokia Traoré, who has been touring with her Toni Morrison theatre collaboration Desdemona, will release a sixth album in 2016. ●

MUSIC

IDOWU ASUMAH/DEMOTIX/CORBIS

Efya Musician

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“My new album, Janesis, is a mixture of the work that I’ve been doing for the past four years. It’s been a long time coming. There’s reggae, ragga, some soulful stuff, pure jazz, afrobeat, highlife and collaborations with Wizkid, EL, Shaydee, Sarkodie, Bisa Kdei. What is happening to African music right now is very beautiful because all these people are coming together from different places. The boundaries have been broken. Because the music is from everywhere, I can go to another country and do a song and it then becomes a hit here in Ghana. Musiga (Musicians Union of Ghana) has just launched in New York. In March they’re going to have a big f e s t i va l a n d I t h i n k Ghanaian musicians will use it to enter the different markets so that everybody sees all of us. I want to do shows for people that have never seen me perform before so that I can make the impact. That’s what matters – how long the music can live is very important to me. To try and touch somebody with the words."

ART

Fabrice Monteiro’s The Prophecy was a highlight of Lagos Photo in biennale boom year 2015

Art beyond the gallery walls

kwui Enwezor was the name on everyone’s lips in 2015 as he became the first African to curate the Venice Biennale. Entitled ‘All the World’s Futures’ and featuring a significant number of black and African artists, the biennale grabbed the attention of art enthusiasts on the continent and the world over. The writer and curator Simon Njami, who directed the Rencontres de Bamako for 10 years, has just been announced as the new director of Dak’art. The festival returns in 2016

for a month filled with art, tours and discussionsintheSenegalesecapital, and the ‘Off’ held in Saint-Louis. Marrakech will also host its sixth biennale in 2016. The three-monthlong programme will be curated by Reem Fadda of the Guggenheim in Abu Dhabi, with the theme ‘Not New Now’. This year’s instalment follows the trend of many other countries acrossthe continent–notablyGhana with Chale Wote Street Art Festival – to take art beyond elitist gallery walls and give access to the wider public.

In Lagos, a growing number of independent artists and galleries are expanding the city’s arts landscape. Among those worth visiting are Omenka Gallery, Art Twenty One, and concept stores Alára and Temple Muse. Photographer Yagazie Emezi has launched the online platform Bialere to showcase the works of young photographers. The long-awaited Zeitz Museum in Cape Town is scheduled to open towards the end of 2016, and the year will close with the Addis FotoFest. ●

Marie-Cécile Zinsou, Director, Fondation Zinsou “Fondation Zinsou has just had its 10th birthday and we are creating a new project. We have a very formal building for the foundation so we want to go back to our basics, more like our museum in Ouidah. We should be in the new space by April. We also have our new app, Wakpon, which allows you to see our collection from your phone or tablet. I see the map of museums and galleries in Africa as a map of trust, and it is changing. There is so much communication now. Nigeria is very interesting. It is very wealthy yet has almost no [arts] infrastructure. I think it is going to be booming with private museums and more galleries soon. The fact that we aren’t all trying to create antipodal museums shows how we have our own answers to our questions. The Ivorian photographer Joana Choumali is someone who is going to change the image of women artists in the region. Her Hââbré scarification project that impressed in 2014 at Lagos Photo was shown at Quai Branly in Paris, while in 2015 an ongoing series, ‘Awoulaba/ Taille Fine’, was shown at the [Lagos photo] festival.”

ANTOINE TEMPE/PICTURETANK

FABRICE MONTEIRO

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ART & LIFE

THEATRE

New ways to taste the city vibe

On their toes

‘

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Johannesburg Let the InstaBikeRides crew take you around Jo’burg and beyond by bike. Cycle through neighbourhood markets, see vibrant street art, visit historic sites, and connect with both locals and travellers. InstaBikeRides leads free monthly bike rides throughout South Africa. Groups of 8+ may request a guided tour outside of the monthly ride. No need to pack your bike in your luggage, you can rent bikes from neighbourhood cycling shops. Instagram.com/instabikerides

Kigali

Experience the Rwandan capital’s growing contemporary arts scene at Inema Arts Center. Founded by brothers Emmanuel Nkuranga and Innocent Nkurunziza, Inema Arts is a hub for creative expression, economic growth, and community engagement. The centre offers visitors of all ages activites such as gallery tours, painting and dance workshops, concerts, yoga, weekly happy hours, and Art Jams to

support their youth arts programming. The centre’s gallery shows the work of 13 artists-in-residence and jewellery by a local women’s cooperative. inemaartcenter.com

Tunis Amine Draoui trained as a hydrology engineer and lived in France, but returned home to Tunisia during the revolution. Now, through Mornag Eco Farm, he shares his knowledge of sustainable living and of Tunisia beyond its ancient ruins. Situated just 15km from Tunis’s city centre, the farm offers eco-chic accommodation, treks to nearby mountains, and workshops in organic farming. You can learn about olive harvesting and get your hands greasy pressing fresh olive oil. Afterwards, enjoy a guided tasting session of olive oil and Tabouna flatbread. mornagecofarm@gmail.com

TRAVEL

he year kicks off with Lagos Theatre Festival, from 24-27 February, which will expand in 2016, with events on the mainland and the island. The festival will also include an un-curated ‘fringe’ element to allow for local interactive participation. Also in Lagos, QDance Center’s Qudus Onikeku will premier his latest work, We Almost Forgot, in June, with an international cast from Lagos, Libreville, Paris and California. Onikeku is also organising a month-long performing arts master class in Lagos from 29 February to 26 March. South Africa’s annual Dance Umbrella Festival, which showcases local and international contemporary dance, will take place in Johannesburg in February, while the peripatetic dance biennale Danse l’Afrique danse! will descend on Ouagadougou in 2016, as part of the Dialogues de Corps festival and the Festival International de Danse. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Connexion Kin festival of the arts in Kinshasa is slated to return in July. Over in Rwanda, the Mashirika performing arts company will hold the second edition of its Ubumuntu Arts Festival in July 2016. Led by Hope Azeda – the organisation’s founder and artistic director – the festival addresses the understanding of humanity and being human. Joy Gharoro-Akpojotor wowed the crowd with her play Sunday – about love, tradition and modernity – at Africa Writes in London in July 2015. With theatre now part of the festival, fans will be looking forward to what the Africa Writes team have planned for 2016. ●

ravel Africa, skip mediocre’ is the slogan of Tastemakers Africa, who organise unique travel experiences across the continent, from wellness weekends in Ghana to a hip-hop tour of Morocco. Now they have launched an app providing an insider guide to 18 African cities. Here are some of Tastemakers’ recommendations for what to enjoy in 2016. tastemakersafrica.com

FILM

100 ART & LIFE

Fevers (Fièvres) Directed by Hicham Ayouch

Reviews: What we loved in 2015

Hicham Ayouch’s Fespacowinner is set in France and tells of the aggressive and neglected pre-teen Benjamin and his newfound father Karim. Forced to forge a relationship, they confront perceptions of masculinity and the idea that life – however disappointing – is the here and now.

MUSIC

Murder in Pacot Directed by Raoul Peck TRAVYS OWENS

La Vie Est Belle / Life is Beautiful Petite Noir Petite Noir is enjoying a budding career across Europe and has received a notable co-sign from Solange Knowles. Born to Congolese and Angolan parents, based in South Africa, in his debut album he merges authentic African influences from an older generation – Fela Kuti and Tabu Ley – with more contemporary nu wave and indie pop fare. Named after the 1987 Congolese film La Vie Est Belle, it perfectly encapsulates ‘Noirwave’ – his invention that describes a young, new and adventurous global African aesthetic.

Buyelekhaya

Nathi

At a time where charged-up genres like afrobeats and hip-hop appear to dominate, newcomer Nathi Mankayi’s sincere emotion and downhome lyricism set the singer-songwriter well apart. Some are comparing him to fellow Eastern Cape native Zahara, whose debut similarly captured the heart of a nation, and later a continent. For others he recalls Ringo Madlingozi’s easy-on-the-ear vocals. Either way, it is easy to see why this rising superstar had one of South Africa’s best-selling albums this year.

Music in Exile

Songhoy Blues

Malian band Songhoy Blues were forced to flee from Gao to Bamako in 2012 to escape Islamic extremists who banned their livelihood: music-making. Their fortunes soon turned there, when they met the Yeah Yeah Yeahs’ guitarist Nick Zinner and Marc-Antoine Moreau from African Express, who co-produced their aptly named album. Blending varied guitar and traditional Malian blues sounds, the result is as gripping as their back story and is the reason why they are being mentioned in the same breath as their precursors, Tinariwen.

My Fairy Tales

Nneka

Having previously collaborated with Ziggy and Damian Marley, Black Thought, Nas, Tricky and Lenny Kravitz, Nneka has acquired the confidence to go it alone as label owner of Bushqueen Music. My Fairy Tales is its first venture and, true to Nneka the artist, weaves reggae, hip-hop, folk, soul and afrobeat into its sound. As ever, politics and spiritual subject matter are top of the agenda. It’s definitely her least commercially-aimed set. Perhaps this explains her decision to create an independent outlet to let her music breathe.

Unfolding just after the devastating earthquake in Haiti in 2010, Murder in Pacot tells of a couple living in the ruins of their house and trying to piece their lives back together. When a French aid worker moves in, an intricate blend of donor arrogance, resentment and shifted power dynamics unsettles everyone.

The Dream of Shahrazad Directed by Francois Verster South African documentarist Francois Verster weaves together narrative strands from the legendary 1001 Nights with political upheaval in Turkey and the Egyptian revolution of 2011. With a symphonic form, the film suggests that activists are by definition artists, and recalls the significance of storytelling, both for preservation and transformation.

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The Book of Memory Petina Gappah Faber Estranged, accursed and displaced, our protagonist in The Book of Memory pieces together the accounts of her demise. Memory is an albino woman facing the death penalty in Chikurubi, a maximum-security prison in Harare, for the death of Lloyd Hendricks, her adoptive father. The accounts of her life flow in fragments and scattered recollections, mapping the painful guiles of memory. Neatly written and with a smooth flow, The Book of Memory transports the reader through the townships of poor black Africans, the suburbs of rich white settlers and the grim cells of Chikurubi inmates. Through its scattering narrative the book presents a bitter tale of fated injustice.

ROBERTO RICCIUTI/GETTY IMAGES

BOOKS

The Fishermen Chigozie Obioma Pushkin Press Shortlisted for the 2015 Man Booker Prize, this debut novel weaves a resplendent and arresting allegory of fraternal disharmony and mortal redemption in telling the misfortunes visited upon a conservative Nigerian family. James Agwu is a strict patriarch whose work at the central bank intermittently places him away from his family. In his absence, his sons Obembe, Boja, Ikenna and Benjamin embark on a fishing adventure. Upon encountering a local madman, their lives take a fatal turn. Employing the disintegration of a family as a figurative vehicle, Obioma's engaging narrative subtly glances over Nigeria’s painful experiences during General Sani Abacha’s military rule. Embalmed in mellifluous proverbs, The Fishermen is a moving and punchy celebration of storytelling – no wonder the author has been dubbed Chinua Achebe's heir. THE AFRICA REPORT

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This House is Not For Sale

The Kindness of Enemies

E.C. Osondu HarperCollins

Leila Aboulela Grove Press

The first novel by 2009 Caine Prize winner E.C. Osondu brings to life the daily affairs of a Nigerian community. It is set in and around a large family house owned by the head of the family and overlord, Grandpa. Shrewd, businessminded and possessing an air of omnipresence, Grandpa – who is equally benevolent and tyrannical – presides with a firm hand over a motley ménage of blood relations, tenants and lackeys. The author colourfully knits myths and legends into his narrative, which draws the reader into a strange and magical world of material familiarity and curious mysticism. It is another story of an ancient curse seeking retribution for former misdeeds. Nevertheless, the narrative possesses an evocative tone and distinctive style, reflective of the writer’s rich and vast imagination.

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With globalisation as its backdrop, The Kindness of Enemies is an intelligent, complex and inventive novel that deals with the ravages of cultural estrangement. The lives of five characters, Anna, Shamil, Natasha, Oz and Malak. are intricately threaded together by their experience of politics, religion and culture. Crossing different landscapes and times, from 19th-century Russia to modern-day Scotland, it delicately explores the Islamic experience. Not only does the writer challenge ideas and perceptions of Islam, but she also opposes popular notions of the conventional Muslim woman. With its diplomatic beauty of language and dialectical thrust, this book subtly attempts to repair the image of Islam within the West, which some might find too political to digest. Nevertheless, it is a timely, relevant and daring piece of literature.

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COUNTRY PROFILES With the downturn in commodity prices, an apparent shift in China’s economic structure and predicted lacklustre global growth rates, 2016 is looking to be a challenging year for many African governments

161 WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY REPORT EDITORS

By Marshall Van Valen

Richard Synge and Marshall Van Valen

COUNTRY REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

186 ALGERIA

134 ETHIOPIA

177 NIGERIA

110 ANGOLA

157 GABON

138 RWANDA

164 BENIN

169 GAMBIA

158 REP. OF CONGO

112 BOTSWANA

170 GHANA

165 BURKINA FASO

172 GUINEA

159 SÃO TOMÉ E PRINCIPÉ

130 BURUNDI

173 GUINEABISSAU

150 CAMEROON 166 CABO VERDE

136 KENYA 113 LESOTHO

179 SENEGAL 139 SEYCHELLES 180 SIERRA LEONE

152 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

189 LIBYA

153 CHAD

114 MADAGASCAR

131 COMOROS

115 MALAWI

167 CÔTE D’IVOIRE

175 MALI

132 DJIBOUTI

190 MAURITANIA

142 TANZANIA

154 DRC

116 MAURITIUS

181 TOGO

187 EGYPT

191 MOROCCO

193 TUNISIA

156 EQUATORIAL GUINEA

117 MOZAMBIQUE

144 UGANDA

118 NAMIBIA

122 ZAMBIA

133 ERITREA

176 NIGER

124 ZIMBABWE

174 LIBERIA

140 SOMALIA 119 SOUTH AFRICA 141 SOUTH SUDAN 192 SUDAN 121 SWAZILAND

Arteh Abdourahim Abdillahi, Léonce Bitariho, Nuno Andrade Ferreira, Mathieu Bonkoungou, Frank Chikowore, James Copnall, Frida Dahmani, Hippolyte Donossio, Denis Dumo Scopas, Emilie Filou, Umaru Fofana, Jacey Fortin, Ilya Gridneff, Charlie Hamilton, Celeste Hicks, Frank Jomo, Reinnier Kazé, Jon Marks, Jeff Mbanga, Billie Adwoa McTernan, Marafaele Antonia Mohloboli, Olivier Monnier, Gregory Mthembu-Salter, Madjiasra Nako, Samuel Obiang Mbana, Roger Murray, Oheneba Ama Nti Osei, Crystal Orderson, Bram Posthumus, Nadia Rabbaa, Amira Salah-Ahmed, Saliou Samb, Gerhard Seibert, Alex Duval Smith

DATA SOURCES Population (2013), population growth (2010-2015), life expectancy at birth (2013) and position on the Human Development Index (2014) – UN Development Programme. Adult literacy (multiple years) – UNESCO Institute for Statistics. GDP per capita (2015 estimate), inflation (2015 estimate), current account as % of GDP (2015 estimate), GDP growth (2013-2016) – IMF World Economic Outlook Database. Foreign direct investment (2014, inflows) – UN Conference on Trade and Development. Mobile phone penetration (2013, mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants) – International Telecommunications Union. Key export (2013) – AfDB African Economic Outlook. Last change of leader – The Africa Report research.

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183 NORTH AFRICA

127 EAST AFRICA

147 CENTRAL AFRICA

he year ahead is likely to challenge African governments that are not well prepared for the current downturn in commodity prices. The impact will not be felt universally across the continent, as the drop in oil prices is a boon for importers and a threat to exporters. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2016 growth predictions downwards a few times in 2015. It said in October that economic growth for sub-Saharan Africa will drop from 5% in 2014 to 2.8% in 2015 before rebounding to 4.3% in 2016. The countries of the Middle East and North Africa are expected to follow a similar pattern, with growth due to fall from 2.6% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 before rising to 3.8% in 2016. However, those figures depend on the IMF’s assumptions about the Chinese economy anditstransitionfrominvestment-fuelled to consumption-led growth. The shift in China’s economic structure suggests that commodity prices will take quite a long time to hit their recent peaks. That means the countries that have been reforming, investing in non-commodity sectors of the economy and saving for inclement weather should perform the best over the next few years. COUNTERCYCLICAL INVESTMENT

107 SOUTHERN AFRICA

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None of Africa’s oil producers have succeeded in taming the boom-bust cycle. In June, Nigeria had just $2bn in its excess crude account, which is meant to collect money when prices are high to be spent whenpricesturnlow.Meanwhilethegovernment of Equatorial Guinea has been talking up the potential of its economic diversification but was set to be one of theworld’sworst-performing economies, with forecast growth of -10.2%. One of the few governments with the savings required for countercyclical investment is Botswana. With weaker diamond prices this year, President Ian Khama announced that the government will invest some of its $8.8bn of foreign-currency reserves in agricultural, manufacturing and tourism projects.

COUNTRY PROFILES While the economies of francophone countries have tended to lack the dynamism of their anglophone counterparts, they have recently been making advances.IntheWorldBank’s2016Doing Business report, 14 out of the 17 countries participating in the Organisation pour l’Harmonisation en Afrique du Droit des Affaires had improved their business climates over the past year. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation announced the results of its governance index in October 2015 and it, too, pointed to progress in Africa’s francophone countries. Senegal and Tunisia were again in the top 10 performers and the most improved country in the past four years remained Côte d’Ivoire. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation’s board member Nathalie Delapalme also explained that francophone countries such as Madagascar, Morocco, Togo and Tunisia are improving their general governance scores.

SNAPSHOT AFRICA – HOW THE CONTINENT SHAPES UP

Top 10 sub-Saharan countries exporting to China in 2014 % of total exports

Sierra Leone Rep. of Congo Angola Zambia DRC South Africa Gambia Liberia Zimbabwe Benin SOURCE: IMF

Murky money

00 00

Africa rank Global rank

Mauritius

1 23

Liberia Ghana

2 33

3 48

REINING IN OIL SUBSIDIES

The era of lower commodity prices offers governments the opportunity to implement reforms that will strengthen finances and economic performance. Low oil prices have meant that Morocco’s reining in of spending on oil subsidies has been less painful for the government than it might have been had prices been higher. Not all governments are following that example though. In July, Nigeria’s PresidentMuhammaduBuhariexplained that there are more important issues to address in the country’s oil sector – like corruption and bunkering. However, the previous government’s 2015 budget included major reductions to the fuel subsidy fund, which dropped to about $500m. The money saved could be used for productive investment, especially amid worries about the oil sector. With continuing problems at South African state-owned companies like South African Airways and PetroSA, reform will be on the agenda in the year ahead. The parastatal oil and gas company is cutting staff, while the finance ministry is working on new laws to allow the government to get involved more directly when companies face problems. The need to break the cycle of regular ‘jumpstarting’ programmes is ever more apparent as the state now estimates that it has issued $31.9bn in outstanding guarantees to parastatals. Like many of the continent’s electricity utilities (see page 66), they could benefit from improving efficiency, reducing costs and encouraging new technologies to expand capacity. ●

Financial Secrecy Index

South Africa

4 61

Botswana

5 62

SOURCE: TAX JUSTICE NETWORK

World Bank’s 2016 Doing Business Ranking Mauritius

Change from 2015 ranking

Best

-4

Rwanda

-6

73 74 75

South Africa Tunisia Morocco

Worst

-30 -14 -4

182

DRC

185 187 188 189

CAR South Sudan Libya Eritrea

2 -1 -1 -1

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

Mo Ibrahim Index for Overall Governance (score out of 100)

SOURCE: 2015 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE

104

Mauritius

Best

74.5 74.2 73 70.4

Cabo Verde Botswana South Africa Namibia Eritrea

Worst

29.9 28.3 24.9

Sudan CAR South Sudan Somalia

8.5

79.9

19.9

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Fitch sovereign ratings COUNTRY South Africa Morocco Namibia Lesotho Nigeria Seychelles Tunisia Angola Republic of Congo Gabon Kenya Rwanda Uganda Cape Verde Cameroon Cote d’Ivoire Egypt Ethiopia Ghana Mozambique Zambia

% of total government spending

10%

Potential gas boom discovered resources

Total estimated reserves Billion cubic metres

Mozambique

6,695

SOURCE: MCKINSEY & COMPANY, BRIGHTER AFRICA 2015

Tanzania

Power-output potential Gigawatts

174

4,454

Nigeria

Angola

Billion cubic metres/year

Ethiopia

993

Kenya

811

353

Namibia

287

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94%

4G 3G 2G

43%

Equat. Guinea

•

51%

1,051

THE AFRICA REPORT

1,553

(% of connections)

2,230

0% 6%

117

111

3,469

14%

Africa’s mobile phone technology shift to 4G

resource base, including yet to find

Potential annual production

12%

SOURCE: GSMA

proved reserves

Mauritania

BBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBB+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B B B B B

These Fitch Ratings assess a sovereign’s capacity to honour its existing and future long-term (LT) foreign currency obligations in full and on time. On a sliding scale from AAA to D, countries marked BBBor higher are considered investment grade, BB+ and below speculative. 0%

South Africa

SOURCE: FITCH RATINGS (DATA AS OF 10 NOV 2015)

2015 ONE DATA REPORT

Government spending on agriculture (2011-13 average) Malawi Rep. of Congo Madagascar Burkina Faso Niger Ethiopia Senegal Liberia Zimbabwe Rwanda Guinea Togo Sierra Leone Cameroon Chad Burundi Mali Benin Zambia Gambia Eritrea Tanzania Mauritania Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Angola São Tomé e Principé Uganda CAR Seychelles DRC Kenya Ghana Sudan Mozambique Botswana Namibia Cabo Verde Mauritius Nigeria Swaziland South Sudan Lesotho South Africa Guinea-Bissau

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

COUNTRY PROFILES

107

SOUTHERN AFRICA CONTENTS

CABINDA

TANZANIA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

LUANDA

108 PEOPLE TO WATCH 110 ANGOLA

Huambo

112 BOTSWANA

MALAWI

LILONGWE

ZAMBIA

113 LESOTHO

Nampula

LUSAKA

114 MADAGASCAR

Blantyre HARARE

Antananarivo

ZIMBABWE

NAMIBIA WINDHOEK

GABORONE

Atlantic Ocean

MADAGASCAR

Bulawayo

BOTSWANA

PRETORIA

118 NAMIBIA

MAPUTO

119 SOUTH AFRICA

MBABANE

121 SWAZILAND

SWAZILAND

Kimberley

SOUTH AFRICA

MASERU

LESOTHO

The IMFprojected revenue from the Southern African Customs Union in 2016, a significant decline from an estimated $497m in the previous year

122 ZAMBIA

Indian Ocean Durban

124 ZIMBABWE

Port Elizabeth

$324m

300 km

CALENDAR 2016

FEBRUARY South Africa Investing in African Mining Indaba MAY Zambia AfDB Annual Meeting MAY South Africa Municipal elections SEPTEMBER Zambia Presidential election SEPTEMBER Malawi Lake of Stars Festival SOUTHERN AFRICA 2015 GDP (% of regional total) Zimbabwe 2.6% Zambia 4.6% Swaziland 0.8%

381.3 19.1% Angola

TOTAL

$534.4bn South Africa

SOUTHERN AFRICA POPULATION (millions)

59.4%

2.4% Botswana 0.4% Lesotho 1.8% Madagascar 1.2% Malawi 2.2% Mauritius 3.2% Mozambique 2.4% Namibia

261.4 194.5

2016 THE AFRICA REPORT

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116 MAURITIUS 117 MOZAMBIQUE

MOZAMBIQUE

Johannesburg

CAPE TOWN

115 MALAWI

Beira

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2030

2050

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

ANGOLA

108 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

PEOPLE TO WATCH SOUTH AFRICA

Zyda Rylands A Woolies wonder Zyda Rylands’ appointment in September to lead one of the country’s largest retailers stunned marketwatchers. She is the first black woman to be chief executive at Woolworths – the country’s largest retailer by market capitalisation. Even harsh critics of the retailer, like the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions against Israel in South Africa movement, welcomed her appointment. Described as a hard worker and a people person by Woolies staffers, the Cape Town-born Rylands has been a mentor to many and is also active in organisations like the Black Management Forum. With her two-decade career at Woolworths, her recent portfolio as managing director for food saw 83% growth in turnover and 240% growth in profits. Woolworths has 65 stores in 11 other African countries.

MOZAMBIQUE

Manuel de Araújo

ZIMBABWE

Raphael Chikukwa Champion curator

TSVANGIRAYI MUKWAZHI/AP/SIPA

A leading figure in the opposition Movimento Democrático de Moçambique party, Manuel de Araújo’s influence goes far beyond his responsibilities as the mayor of Quelimane. This ever-present and popular politician both showcases competent administration by leveraging international connections to access development funding, and participates actively in national affairs. His role will grow in the next year as a mediator and commentator on the military and political standoff between the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique and the armed opposition of the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana. A former researcher in the London offices of Amnesty International, and still an academic and human rights campaigner, de Araújo leads Mozambicans critical of ruling party entitlement.

SAAD

Outspoken oppositionist

Raphael Chikukwa is the only African curator to have organised his country’s pavilion at three consecutive Venice Biennales. His task for the year ahead is to develop support for the arts from the Zimbabwean public. This year, the National Gallery of Zimbabwe, where Chikukwa is deputy director, received computers and other equipment for public use in its library. Mawonero: Modern and Contemporary Art in Zimbabwe, which Chikukwa co-edited, is due out in 2016. THE AFRICA REPORT

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ANGOLA

Luaty Beirão Rapper and activist Luaty Beirão has become prominent in discussions on social media about the current political landscape in Angola. Beirão’s lawyers declared he was being unlawfully held behind bars ahead of his trial for allegedly trying to overthrow President José Eduardo dos Santos late in 2015. While security forces stamp out protests on the streets of Angolan cities, the online debate about Beirão and the political situation is drawing in voices from all sides. His struggle and the criticism of the ruling elite that he has come to represent should be watched closely in 2016, as his influence will not be abating any time soon.

JORGE VAZ GOMES

A voice of protest

Edith Nawakwi A lady kingmaker Edith Nawakwi of the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) is one of the most influential female politicians in Zambia. A very vocal and eloquent critic of President Edgar Lungu, Nawakwi is slowly improving her political fortunes. The FDD has surpassed the former ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy to become the thirdlargest political party in Zambia by popularity. Nawakwi has a penchant for alliances with other parties. As the race is expected to become tighter, Nawakwi could be an influential kingmaker in next year’s polls. THE AFRICA REPORT

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SOUTH AFRICA

Sihle Zikalala KwaZulu-Natal’s young ANC chief on the rise

K. NGWENYA/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

ZAMBIA

If you talk African National Congress (ANC) politics in KwaZulu-Natal, Sihle Zikalala’s name tops the list of the most outspoken leaders. He was elected ANC chairman of President Jacob Zuma’s native province in early November. Depending on whom you speak to, Zikalala is seen as a young leader destined for great things within the party or a divisive figure who could cause a split in the ANC’s biggest support base. Zikalala is keen to smooth out tensions after his victory over former chairman Senzo Mchunu. Affectionately known as ‘Nobhala’ (Zulu for ‘secretary’), Zikalala has occupied that position in the province since 2008, during which time the ANC there has experienced a dramatic increase in membership. The 41-year-old Zikalala has been an active ANC member since his teens and played a role in the peace committee that was formed to quell Inkatha Freedom Party/ANC violence in the 1990s. He will be a key figure to watch in the race for the next ANC president in 2017.

110 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

ANGOLA

Oil’s slippery slope ➔ Dos Santos has been vague about succession plans after elections in 2017

200 Km

LEADERSHIP TRANSITION

Dos Santos said earlier this year that he had no plans to step down before the next elections in 2017, when his current mandate runs out. However, the 73 year old has not elaborated on if or what his succession plans might be. The current favourite to succeed the president is vice-president Manuel Vicente, who some believe would act as a placeholder for the president’s son and current chairman of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, José Filomeno dos Santos. Meanwhile, there has been a crackdown on dissent. In June, 15 Angolans were arrested for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government. Their trial was underway as The Africa Report went to press, amid heavy criticism from rights groups. In May, journalist and activist

LUANDA

Atlantic Ocean

ith a dreary economic outlook predicted to last until at least 2017, senior officials warn that belts will need to be tightened. Central bank governor Jose Pedro de Morais says that the country needs to diversify its economy and reduce its consumption levels. The government slashed spending on the 2015 budget and hasbeen lookingtoraise funds from the international markets. With oil accounting for more than 95% of exports and around 75% of fiscal revenue, the sharp drop in crude prices in 2014 and 2015 has been economically crippling. This has been a hard pill to swallow for the country’s elite who, amid widespread allegations of corruption, have been used to lavish spending habits funded by oil revenue. The crunch is also intensifying discontent aimed at sub-Saharan Africa’s secondlongest serving leader, President José Eduardo dos Santos, who has been in power since 1979.

firmly extinguished by state security agents, and social media and online blogs have become the main forum for free debate. The União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola has been mostly quiet, adding support to claims that it has been co-opted by the ruling party.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

CABINDA

ANGOLA Lobito Huambo ZAMBIA NAMIBIA

➔ Population: 21.5 million ➔ Population growth: 3.1% ➔ GDP per capita: $4,061 ➔ Life expectancy: 51.9 ➔ Adult literacy: 71.1% ➔ Inflation: 10.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 149 ➔ Foreign direct investment: -$3.9bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -7.6% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 61% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 1979 ➔ GDP growth (%)

6.8

4.8

3.5

102

98.8

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

124.2

129.3

2013

2014

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The government is scrambling to dampen the impact of sliding oil prices

Rafael Marques de Morais was given a six-month suspended sentence after being convicted of defamation. He had accused generals of human rights abuses at diamond mines in a 2012 book. Human Rights Watch, in its 2015 report on Angola, accused the state of censorship, repression and excessive force. With food prices rising, fuel subsidies cut and a strong disparity between rich and poor, it is not surprising that criticism of the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola appears to be at its highest levels since the end of the civil war in 2002. Several public protests have been banned or been quickly and

MORE RED TAPE

The government has brought in stricter regulations in an attempt to reduce capital flight and kickstart the troubled economy. Foreign investors face new restrictions on the amount of hard currency they can repatriate, and those investing in strategic sectors – excluding the oil industry – will also have to bring on board a local partner. Entrepreneurs in Luanda complain that the country is becoming an unattractive place to do business, and the World Bank’s 2015 Ease of Doing Business data showed Angola dropping down one place in the rankings from 2014. An already challenging environment is even trickier and even local production – of which there is little – has been affected. Talk of the economic crisis is incessant within Luanda’s business community and some are buying assets locally to protect their capital, with others even talking of preparing the ground for leaving the country, if that becomes necessary. The parallel market – including informal dollar sales and the use of unofficial channels for repatriating foreign exchange – has expanded rapidly. The liquidity crunch has fostered new avenues for corruption. In late 2015, $1 could be bought on the parallel market for K250, compared with an official rate of K135. Analysts argue that the official rate could climb to K200 or beyond, and the parallel rate is hard to track. The chances of a return to the dollarised economy of the early post-war period looks more likely now than ever before. This would be a significant step backwards for monetary liberalisation and the government’s efforts to increase the use of the kwanza in the local economy. With an increase

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SOUTHERN AFRICA

FEELING THE SQUEEZE

The government says it will use half the funds to support the state budget, with the other half assigned to macroeconomic management, poverty reduction and the social sector. The $200m guarantee will allow Angola to obtain new financing in international markets. Media articles, quoting finance ministry

Oil production

2.0

(Millions of barrels per day)

1.5

1.0

0.5 2004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

$650m

Size of the World Bank’s support package, its first aid for Angola since 2010 documents, reported that Angola had planned to borrow a total of $25bn in 2015. Angola may begrudgingly return to the International Monetary Fund for a financial package if oil prices remain depressed for a substantial period. The country sold its first eurobond in November, raising $1.5bn, and said the cash would support long-term economic development. Foreign oil companies are rethinking the viability of their investments. They complain that cumbersome government regulations have added to the already costly business of extracting oil offshore.

SOURCE: IMF COUNTRY REPORT, NOV. 2015

in non-performing loans, the banking system too looks increasingly fragile. The government’s policy of building up foreign-currency reserves has helped import-dependent Angola mitigate the plunge in oil revenue. Reserves dropped to $24.9bn in June from almost $27bn in January. The central bank devalued the kwanza several times in 2015 but was not able to keep pace with the parallel market rate. It has twice raised interest rates, and in July it lowered its economic growth forecast for 2015 to 4.4% from a previous estimate of 6.6%. The country’s proposed 2016 budget forecast gross domestic product growth of 3.3% and assumed an oil price of $45 a barrel. The government’s strategy so far has been to look for international financing and credit lines – mainly from China and Brazil – as well as from international financial institutions. The World Bank in June granted Angola a support package worth $650m, split into a $450m loan and $200m of guarantees. It was the lender’s first financial aid for Angola since 2010.

COUNTRY 111 PROFILES

Yet Angola, sub-Saharan Africa’s secondlargest producer after Nigeria, was set to export the most crude in almost four years in October to satisfy Chinese demand and offset diminished revenue from the plunging oil price. It planned to ship 1.83m barrels per day (bpd) in October, compared to 1.77m bpd in September and the most since November 2011. Despite the environment of low oil prices, state oil company Sonangol opened up bids for 10 onshore blocks from pre-qualified bidders in July. There were 84 bidders, which included Chevron,Eni,GlencoreandGalpEnergia. Angola’s troubled $10bn liquefied natural gas plant, run by Chevron, has been shut down since 2014 due to a serious mechanical fault. It is expected to reach full production capacity again by mid-2016. The government is commissioning a national geochemical survey in 2016 in the hope of attracting more investment in mining. The geology ministry says that more than a dozen new mining projects – for resources from gold to phosphates and diamonds – will launch in 2016. Economic diversification is urgent, but the task appears tougher now given the lack of hard currency to support the import of machinery. Severe economic constraints are compounded by the dearth of an educated workforce and the absence of democratically allocated social resources. ●

Slow start for the sovereign wealth fund THE FUNDO SOBERANO de Angola’s investment policy is “strategic” and in line with the government’s commitment to accelerate economic diversification, chairman José Filomeno dos Santos said in a statement announcing its 2014 audited results. But some economists question the fund’s raison d’être, given the country’s economic crisis. Dos Santos, a son of Angola’s THE AFRICA REPORT

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President José Eduardo dos Santos, admitted falling crude prices “might change some investment plans and spending in the short term,” but gave no further details. “However, it is a positive indicator in the medium to long term because it further encourages diversification of economies dependent on the extraction of exhaustible natural resources,” he added.

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As of the end of 2014, the sovereign wealth fund had $4.9bn under management, with 56% invested in fixed-income assets. Some 37% of the investment portfolio was allocated in Europe, 34% in sub-Saharan Africa, 18% in North America and 11% in the rest of the world. But the fund – founded in 2012 – is still far from

providing any significant state funding buffer. Even after massive spending cuts, Angola is predicting a budget deficit of 7% of gross domestic product. “Sovereign wealth funds are supposed to be about saving money for a rainy day. It is now pouring in Angola and in this context, the fund has no credibility,” an economist tells The Africa Report. ●

112 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

BOTSWANA

The opposition gains confidence ➔ The prospects for a Khama dynasty appear to be passing their peak

ANGOLA

Diamonds remain crucial to the economy and public revenue as diversification into other mineral products – notably coal – and non-mining activities remains a work in progress. The 50:50 government/De Beers-owned Debswana Diamond Corporation has said that it will now be able to extend the Jwaneng mine’s life to at least 2033. Lucara Diamond Corporation, part of Sweden’s Lundin Group, and Londonbased Gem Diamonds continue to expand recoveries.

ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE

ith President Ian Khama in office for another three years, new political dynamics are at work within the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) as it tries to avoid the once unthinkable prospect of defeat at the next legislative elections in October 2019. In the 2014 legislative elections, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) electoral alliance won four of the capital Gaborone’s five seats and reduced the BDP’s share of the vote to less than 50% for the first time. Under the leadership of Duma Boko, the UDC seeks to continue to capitalise on urban discontent over high unemployment and the widening gap in disposable income. The alliance’s prospects of winning in 2019 would be improved if the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) joins the alliance. Internal party pressure is set to mount on BCP leader Dumelang Saleshando to do so. Khama’s dominance within the BDP was reduced with the election of Mokgweetsi Masisi as Botswana’s new vice-president in 2014. Khama had sought to have his brother Tshekedi Khama elected. Masisi, not a close ally of Khama, is now in line to succeed him. The prospect of a Khama dynasty would appear to have ended. IMPROVING RELATIONS

Khama’s relatively isolated status in Southern Africa ended in August when he became the new chair of the Southern African Development Community, succeedingZimbabwe’sPresidentRobert Mugabe, of whom Khama had previously been highly critical for his authoritarian ways. And bilateral relations with Namibia, which had been cool, have improved. Both governments are working on plans to develop the 1,500km Trans-Kalahari

NAMIBIA

Francistown

BOTSWANA GABORONE 200 km

SOUTH AFRICA

➔ Population: 2 million ➔ Population growth: 0.9% ➔ GDP per capita: $6,149 ➔ Life expectancy: 64.4 ➔ Adult literacy: 88.5% ➔ Inflation: 4% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 109 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $393.2m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: 2.8% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 160% ➔ Key export: Diamonds ➔ Last change of leader: 2008 ➔ GDP growth (%)

9.3

4.4

MOVING COAL

2.6

3.2

➔ GDP ($bn)

15.1

15.2

13.1

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Coal projects hold promise, while diamonds have lost some sparkle

Railway (TKR) from eastern Botswana to Namibia’s port of Walvis Bay. The slowdown in China’s economy and weaker prices for Botswana’s main exportsofroughdiamonds,copper,nickel and beef means that growth is weakening. The government announced that the value of its diamond production had fallen 15% in the first six months of 2015 and that it would launch a stimulus package in sectors including tourism and manufacturing. However, if current problems with inadequate domestic power-generating capacity escalate, the resulting constraints on business activity could deter new investors.

The government has continued to implement its 2012 coal roadmap strategy, which aims to promote exploitation of some of the estimated 212bn tonnes of bituminous coal. Most of the deposits are located in eastern Botswana. Firms are no longer gearing their development timings to the construction of the TKR, for which an investment of at least $9bn will be needed. Instead, mine developers plan to use existing rail capacity to ports in Mozambique and South Africa, where rail authorities have offered to carry 20m tonnes of coal per year from Botswana. The most advanced coal project is at Mmamabula, with an estimated 2.4bn tonnes of measured and indicated resources, for which India’s Jindal Africa has received a mining licence. Other projects involve smaller operations to feed new thermal power stations. Botswana is in dire need of additional supply, as power outages have become increasingly frequent due to operational problems at the Chinese-built Morupule B station. In July 2015, Australia’s African Energy Resources announced the sale of its 1.3bn tonne Mmamantswe project to a South African developer who will bid for a 600MW, cross-border, independent power producer tender offered by South Africa’s department of energy. African Energy Resources is now studying its export options for the 2.5bn tonne Mmamabula West deposit. Another Australian company, Walkabout Resources, has been studying a possible 7bn tonne project in the south-east of the country. ●

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SOUTHERN AFRICA

COUNTRY 113 PROFILES

LESOTHO

Soldiers and civilians still at odds ➔ Several political leaders prefer exile in South Africa to the threat of assassination ➔ Diamond production and Mohair exports could rescue a troubled economy

MASERU

LESOTHO

RESOLVING GRIEVANCES

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has moved to investigate both the Mahao killing and the reappointment of Kamoli. In July, it set up a special commission headed by Botswana high court judge Mpaphi Phumaphi. However, the fact that the findings of this commission have no legal standing could renew political •

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FISCAL RISK

➔ Population: 2.1 million ➔ Population growth: 1.1% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,062 ➔ Life expectancy: 49.4 ➔ Adult literacy: 79.4% ➔ Inflation: 3.9% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 162 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $46.4m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -6.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 86% ➔ Key export: Diamonds ➔ Last change of leader: 2015 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.6

3.4

2.6

2.9

➔ GDP ($bn)

2.3

2.2

2.1

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

espite the February 2015 election, which had been intended to resolve Lesotho’s acute political crisis, the country’s political instability is due to continue in 2016. The elected parliament has been largely out of action, paralysed by ongoing conspiracies, assassinations and arrests within the Lesotho Defence Force (LDF). In the meantime, the police will be keeping a firm hand on security by means of a heavy presence on the streets. Former Prime Minister Tom Thabane and two other opposition leaders fled into exile in South Africa in May, claiming that their lives were under threat. Opposition members of parliament also boycotted the institution, blaming the government for a number of killings, including that of Thabiso Tsosane, a prominent business supporter of Thabane’s All Basotho Convention (ABC). Things went downhill after new Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili reappointed General Tlali Kamoli as head of the LDF in May. Kamoli, whose resistance to his dismissal by Thabane in August 2014 had resembled a coup d’état, was quick to order the arrest of a large number of LDF members on suspicion of plotting a mutiny – a move sparked by the shooting and killing of former LDF commander Brigadier Maaparankoe Mahao. A highly controversial trial of suspects then followed.

THE AFRICA REPORT

gress has been reportedly trying to form a grand coalition with Thabane’s ABC. A delegation from the International Monetary Fund visited the country in August and warned that the economy faces a “challenging outlook”. Economic growth is expected to slow as a result of low investor confidence and the decline in revenue collected by the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), in addition to the global economic slowdown.

30 km

SOUTH AFRICA

instability unless popular grievances can be resolved. Thabane’s negotiation of conditions under which he might return to Lesotho was not well received by other opposition parties, whose leaders – Thesele Maseribane of theBasotho National Party and Keketso Rantso of the Reformed Congress of Lesotho – are also abroad. As the government seems unwilling to consider offering a blanket amnesty for all political exiles, it is not clear when they might return. The worry amongst Basotho is that they might not do so while Mosisili’s government is in office. In the meantime, Mosisili’s Democratic Con-

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SACU revenue accounted for about 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014/2015 but is expected to contribute only 15% by 2016/2017. In all likelihood the government will be forced to cut its wage bill, which has grown to 23% of GDP. In her 2015 budget speech, finance minister Mamphono Khaketla said she recognised the volatility and fiscal risk inherent in the SACU receipts and added that it was essential for the government to identify sustainable and less risky domestic revenue. Exports of wool and mohair have been rising in recent years, and there was a substantial increase in profits from mohair sales in 2014, according to the Pretoria-based Lesotho National Wool and Mohair Growers’ Association. In the burgeoning diamond sector, the Lesotho National Development Corporation has been busy launching a school for gem polishing. Companies are also opening factories for the manufacture of gem products. Although Lesotho has received a tenyear extension in access to the US market for its textiles and other goods, US importers have been slow to place orders for the upcoming season. Any continuing uncertainty over whether the US will remain loyal as a market for Lesotho-made jeans, T-shirts and track suits could result in thousands of people losing their jobs. Textile factories are the second-largest source of employment in the country. A strategic development that looks set to continue is the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, which supplies water to neighbouring South Africa. ●

114 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

MADAGASCAR

Hery’s horror show ➔ The government is looking to slash public sector wages to attract investment

wo years on from the election of President Hery Rajaonarimampianina, Madagascar has yet to show signs of recovery. The country elected Hery, as he is popularly known, after a difficult five-year period of political instability and economic hardship. Thepoliticalclimateremainsunsettled. At the heart of the problem is the discord between parliament and the executive: Hery was elected with little popular support and no party. He has struggled to get a majority in parliament, where he must contend with several forces: MAPAR, the party of coup leader Andry Rajoelina, his former mentor; TIM, the party of former president Marc Ravalomanana, who returned from exile in October 2014; and a large number of independent members of parliament (MPs). The prime minister, Roger Kolo, resigned in January 2015 because of popular discontent over the slow pace of progress. Hery appointed General Jean Ravelonarivo to succeed him. The acrimony between the executive and parliament culminated in May 2015 when the national assembly tried to impeach the president. He was saved by the constitutional court, but a month later, MPs put forward a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. The motion failed to pass by just seven votes, but it further soured relations between the two sides. CALLS FOR BETTER SPENDING

This political stalemate is having wide repercussions. The government is struggling to pass laws, which delayed the municipal elections that finally took place in July and the appointment of the senate – two-thirds of which are elected by mayors. It is also stalling reforms. The government notably struggled to pass its amended 2015 budget, and donors

are better compliance, improved fraud detection and more efforts to tackle the informal sector, as less than 10% of the active population works in the formal sector. The country also needs to spend better: 80% of public spending goes to current expenditure and the bulk of it to wages, fuel subsidies and help to bail the floundering national electricity and water utility Jirama.

COMOROS

ANTANANARIVO

Toamasina Indian Ocean

MADAGASCAR 300 km

MAURITIUS REUNION (France)

BARRIERS TO DOING BUSINESS

➔ Population: 22.9 million ➔ Population growth: 2.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $392 ➔ Life expectancy: 64.7 ➔ Adult literacy: 64.7% ➔ Inflation: 7.6% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 155 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $350.7m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -1.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 36% ➔ Key export: Nickel ➔ Last change of leader: 2014 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.3

3.4

10.6

10.7

9.5

9.2

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

2.3

4.6

➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Political gridlock has stymied the country’s recovery since Hery’s election

are not impressed. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) only released funds under its rapid credit facility in June 2014 and September 2015, and not under its more generous and long-term extended credit facility. A conference of Madagascar’s main donors, where aid commitments to support the country’s growth strategy will be announced, has been postponed from November 2015 until early 2016 so that the government can make meaningful reforms. TheIMFnotablywantstoseeincreased revenue collection. At 10.1% of gross domestic product, Madagascar’s fiscal base is one of the lowest inthe world. The goals

Reforms are essential to woo investors too. Foreign direct investment plummeted during the transition from $1.3bn in 2009 to $350m in 2014. Despite the return to political legitimacy and Madagascar’s reintegration to the African Growth and Opportunity Act, it has shown little sign of picking up. Madagascar ranked 163rd out of 189 countries in the World Bank’s Doing Business 2015 report. It was notably ranked last for access to electricity, as load shedding has become a daily occurrence. Other barriers include high levels of corruption, political instability, poor infrastructure and poor credit availability. Along with these structural weaknesses, Madagascar had to counter with a number of unexpected shocks in 2015 that cut short the momentum of 2014. Heavy rain at the beginning of the year destroyed crops and caused millions of dollars worth of damage; low commodity prices held back mining revenue; and a month-long strike at national carrier Air Madagascar in June led to mass cancellations in the tourism sector. With all its political institutions in place– senatorialelectionsare scheduled for 29 December – its Plan National de Développement finally ready and something akin to a non-aggression pact being negotiated between parliament and the executive, economic growth is set to improve in 2016. This is assuming that embittered politicians, including Ravalomanana,whoissnakinghiswaybackinto politics under cover of his wife Lalao’s mandate as mayor of Antananarivo, do not throw plans off course. ●

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SOUTHERN AFRICA

COUNTRY 115 PROFILES

MALAWI

Still skidding down ➔ Floods, inflation and an aid freeze underline a bleak economic outlook ➔ President Mutharika pins hopes on continued financial support from China

Lake Malawi

MALAWI

LILONGWE

SUSPENDED LOANS

The fall in food production is fuelling inflation, and the kwacha has also been registering a massive loss in value against major trading currencies like the US dollar. Foreign-exchange earnings from the country’s main export, tobacco, dropped to around $300m in 2015, compared to $362m in 2104, as production slipped. The economy took another hit in October when the International Monetary Fundsuspendedloanstothegovernment because it had not followed through on THE AFRICA REPORT

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MOZAMBIQUE

Blantyre

150 km

➔ Population: 16.4 million ➔ Population growth: 2.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $352 ➔ Life expectancy: 55.3 ➔ Adult literacy: 65.8% ➔ Inflation: 20.1% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 174 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $130m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -2.6% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 32% ➔ Key export: Tobacco ➔ Last change of leader: 2014 ➔ GDP growth (%)

PUBLIC ALLEGATIONS

5 5.7

5.4

6.1

6.4

6.1

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

5.2 ➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

ny rapid reversal of Malawi’s dismal economic fortunes is likely to elude President Peter Mutharika in the months ahead. In the wake of his surprise election victory of May 2014, the economy has not only been battered by a continuing lack of Western donor support but further weakened by the devastating floods of early 2015. Incessant rains in January brought the worst flooding in the country’s history, with about 640,000 people in 15 of the country’s 28 districts affected and about 240,000 forced to flee their homes, according to United Nations officials. More than 170 people died, and government officials estimated the cost of repairs at some $400m. For a country so heavily dependent on agriculture, the floods had farreaching knock-on effects. Maize production slumped by more than 25% in the 2014/15 season and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network estimated a maize deficit of around 500,000tn. Against this background of insufficient food supplies, the sharp hike in the price of fertilisers under the government’s formerly successful subsidy programme is sure to undermine the Mutharika government’s popularity.

tourism and attracting foreign investment. Mutharika has pinned his hopes on China for continued support. Donors have been withholding more than $150m per year in budget support since the shocking revelations in 2013 of pilferage of public funds – the case known popularly as ‘Cashgate’. This resulted in the arrest of at least 70 people to answer theft, fraud, corruption and money-laundering charges. Data analysis funded by the German government and undertaken by the auditors of PwC discovered that some K577bn ($1.4bn) of government funds was unaccounted for between 2009 and 2014.

TANZANIA

ZAMBIA

plans to improve domestic revenue collection and cut the civil service wage bill. Mutharika promised fiscal and monetary policies designed to reduce inflation and stabilise the exchange rate. Malawi held its first-ever international investment forum in June and attracted $1.1bn in investment, although it was targeting $16bn. The investments included a proposed multibillion-dollar rail system to connect Lake Malawi to the Indian Ocean, which US-based company Briggs International plans to build. The government’s economic priorities for 2016 include agricultural diversification, promoting mining and

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While arrests have been made and some convictions secured, there is public dissatisfaction with how the Cashgate cases are progressing in the courts. Two Cashgate suspects named former President Joyce Banda as the main beneficiary of the loot. As Banda has remained abroad, the popular perception has grown that she has been avoiding prosecution. Her absence has left her People’s Party in disarray. The role of opposition has fallen to the Malawi Congress Party, led by Lazarus Chakwera, who has so far failed to win support outside of the central area of the country. Politically, Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been trying to mend fences with the United Democratic Front (UDF), from which it split in 2005. The UDF is currently led by Atupele Muluzi, a son of former President Bakili Muluzi. Atupele serves in the Mutharika government as lands and urban development minister, but old rivalries between the two parties have not died at the grassroots level. Meanwhile, some UDF leaders are arguing that the alliance with the DPP is doing more harm than good. On the regional front, Mutharika has been making friendly approaches to Zambia and Mozambique, hoping to patch up the damage to relations that occurred under the rule of his brother Bingu, who died in office in 2012. ●

116 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

MAURITIUS

The search for fresh faces and ideas ➔ The country is not on track to become a high-income nation by 2025 ➔ The government hopes to balance the strategic interests of China and India

BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESS

For the time being, growth is expected to remain in the region of 3% a year, as it has done for some years. Jugnauth is keen to talk up these figures by making a prediction of 5.5% growth from 2017. His visionistoincreasethecontributionofthe manufacturing sector to gross domestic product from 18% to 25%, and he has promisedgovernmentinvestmentofmore than $2bn in modernising infrastructure. Mauritius already scores highly in key aspects of its developmental progress. It has the highest rankings of any African country in the World Economic Forum’s

PORT-LOUIS Indian Ocean

MAURITIUS

Indian Ocean

10 km

➔ Population: 1.2 million ➔ Population growth: 0.4% ➔ GDP per capita: $9,186 ➔ Life expectancy: 73.6 ➔ Adult literacy: 90.6% ➔ Inflation: 2% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 63 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $418.4m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -4.8% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 123% ➔ Key export: Tuna ➔ Last change of leader: 2015 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.2

3.6

THE AFRICAN CONNECTION

3.2

3.8

➔ GDP ($bn)

11.9

12.6

11.6

12.1

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

he latest round of musical chairs among the leading political parties has allowed the most venerable of the country’s elder statesmen to take charge once again, highlighting the need for eventual renewal of the cosy political system in place since independence in 1968. A more pressing priority is to identify economic strategies that can help sustain this small island’s relative prosperity. The previous government had set the goal of Mauritius becoming a high-income country by 2025 but it is unlikely to meet that deadline. Aged 84 at the time of the December 2014 election, Prime Minister Anerood Jugnauth managed to refresh his appeal with promises to reduce fuel prices, introduce private television stations, abolish identity cards and increase oldage pensions. His partnership with the Parti Mauricien Social Démocrate took 47 parliamentary seats, leaving their main opponents with only 13. Increased welfare spending is expected to cause the fiscal deficit to widen in the coming years unless the government can also deliver on its promise of stimulating economic growth.

the scandal-hit Bramer Bank has suggested a serious intent. Business leaders favour more investment in infrastructure and education but tend to be sceptical of the government’s emphasis on manufacturing. The search for new economic strategies will continue through the identification of comparative advantages. There is discussion of the so-called ‘blue economy’, focusing on conserving the marine environment, but planners are keener on the ‘ocean economy’, prioritising opportunities for fishing and shipping.

indices of global competitiveness and networkreadinessaswellastheWorldIntellectual Property Organisation’s global innovationindex.Thecountryiscurrently even ranked as the sixth most economically free jurisdiction in the world by the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom Index, but it now needs to build on past success, whereby a combination of sugar production, textile manufacture, financial services and tourism brought significant growth and prosperity. Tourism has been surging but has its limits. In financial services, tighter regulation should herald a new era; the government’s takeover in early 2015 of

The government is looking to convert Port Louis into a transshipment point serving different parts of Africa, with finance minister Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo trying to persuade Dubai’s DP World to develop a free port near the capital’s Jin Fei industrial zone. Expanding all forms of connectivity with both Africa and Asia is a priority. The deputy prime minister, Xavier-Luc Duval, says that China sees Mauritius as a secure base for operations in Africa and wants to increase the number of flights between the two countries. The relationship with China is balanced by a new warmness from India. After a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in March 2015, India announced a $500m concessional credit line for an information technology hub, petroleum storage facilities and other projects. Revisions to the two countries’ double taxation avoidance agreement are now being negotiated. The Mauritian government said that it would introduce measuresbeforetheendof2015toensure that companies operating in the country have a real presence and are not merely seeking tax benefits. With Mauritius’s future role as an intermediary for investment in India in doubt, the government is keen to bolster the financial sector and ties with Africa. In October, the financial services ministry announced that it is seeking to foster ties between African stock exchanges and to set up a derivatives platform for African currencies. ●

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SOUTHERN AFRICA

COUNTRY 117 PROFILES

MOZAMBIQUE

The trials of Filipe Nyusi ➔ Fraught negotiations with the rebels in Renamo will continue

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA

he fallout from a debt-fuelled spending boom and political and military stalemate with the armed opposition party, Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo) – the twin legacies of ex-president Armando Guebuza’s polarising rule – will dominate President Filipe Nyusi’s second year in office in 2016. Talks with Renamo are entering their third year and will continue, but a decisive breakthrough in implementing the September 2014 peace agreement is unlikely. Renamo is loathe to disarm its forces and the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) party has not been serious about agreeing to power sharing. Stop-start negotiations and gradual progress will be punctuated by setbacks and violence but without a return to war. The risk of a longer-term stalemate with negative consequences for political stability and investor sentiment, however, are rising. MODERATES MAKE A COMEBACK

President Nyusi is gaining public respect for his support of a more open society but faces resistance from Frelimo’s hardliners. Nyusi has surprised his critics by stepping out of the shadow of Guebuza, his assumed patron. His government and state appointments are restoring competence over loyalty as a requirement of office and greater balance is returning among Frelimo’s factions. Moderates are making a comeback, including former President Joaquim Chissano and former first lady Graça Machel. There will be pressure for Guebuza and his cronies to be prosecuted for corruption and wrong-doing. A power struggle may enable Guebuza, his family and supporters to hold onto economic gains, although criminal prosecution for an isolated ally or two could be possible. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Nampula ZIMBABWE

MADAGASCAR

Beira Indian Ocean

SOUTH AFRICA

MAPUTO

300 km

SWAZ.

➔ Population: 25.8 million ➔ Population growth: 2.5% ➔ GDP per capita: $626 ➔ Life expectancy: 50.3 ➔ Adult literacy: 58.8% ➔ Inflation: 4% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 178 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $4.9bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -41% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 48% ➔ Key export: Aluminium ➔ Last change of leader: 2015 ➔ GDP growth (%)

7.4

RISK OF DEBT DISTRESS

8.2

7.4

15.6

16.7

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Despite gloom in the oil sector, the LNG projects await their final go-ahead

atory work will begin in 2016, the weak supply response from domestic suppliers to such capital-intensive investment will limit its economic impact. The rout in thecoal sector will continue as an investment boom turns to bust. All four operating mines are losing money or are in receivership. Further exploration and development is grinding to a halt. Brazil’s Vale and the Indian state companies that now dominate the sector will remain for the long haul but are aiming to cut costs. A major development in 2016 will come from Vale ramping up operation of its new rail line and port facilities at Nacala, easing a crippling transport bottleneck.

TANZANIA MALAWI

A final investment decision on liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure in the prolific Rovuma Basin – in early 2016 or before year-end 2015 – would secure Mozambique’s future as a global energy exporter at a time when global over-supply and low prices raised the risk of the project being cancelled or deferred. The decision, expected first from the consortium led by US-based Anadarko, would unlock $24bn in foreign direct investment – and eventually as much as $100bn – leading to lasting economic transformation of Mozambique. First gas output is at least five years away. Although construction and prepar-

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Robust economic growth in 2016 will be underpinned by construction, transportation and services. Labour-intensive growth in manufacturing and agriculture, critical to poverty reduction, will remain elusive in what is still a highcost economy hampered by red tape and structural rigidities. Next year will see a continued fiscal consolidation to address unsustainable growth in public spending and debt. Falling donor support and rising debt service will be covered by public borrowing to cover a fiscal deficit of at least 6.5% of gross domestic product, down from 10.5% in 2014. Mozambique is at risk of debt distress, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and public liabilities have tripled since debt relief was granted in 2006. The IMF is urging the government to be more rigorous in evaluating the economic viability of public investment decisions – most of the new debt has financed prestige projects with murky terms and expensive commercial lending rates. China will consolidate its new position as Mozambique’s largest creditor, although greater scrutiny will begin of the terms of deals that have benefited Frelimo insiders. Reforms to improve transparency are a top priority, as the window to put controls in place before the beginning of petroleum riches is narrow. ●

118 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

NAMIBIA

Major mining projects to fight poverty ➔ Mining output and new infrastructure will underpin continued economic growth

ndicating that he is making a definitive change of direction in government policy, in August new President Hage Geingob launched the national dialogue on wealth distribution and poverty eradication to improve the living standards of poor Namibians. He had earlier urged Windhoek city council to ensure that thousands living in shacks were decently housed, even if this meant extending the city boundaries or taking over adjoining farms to do so. Geingob has also attempted to increase accountability and transparency across the government by voluntarily declaring the financial assets held by himself and his wife. Ministers, senior civil servants and parastatal bosses have been instructed to follow suit. The interest in 2016 will be to see how far Geingob is able to follow through on these commitments in the face of likely foot-dragging by other members of the elite within the ruling South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO). As a Damara, one of Namibia’s minority ethnic groups, he cannot count on the automatic backing of SWAPO’s predominantly northern membership. Some unreconciled opponents may back a challenger to Geingob for the SWAPO presidency at the party’s next congress in 2017. However, the main competition will be for the party’s vice-presidency. WEAKENED OPPOSITION

The principal candidates are likely to be SWAPO’s two most senior female politicians: prime minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila and her deputy and foreign affairs minister, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Namibia’s much-weakened opposition will continue to find it difficult to challenge SWAPO’s dominance. Former minister Hidipo Hamutenya stepped

300 km

ANGOLA

Walvis Bay WINDHOEK

downstream processing of diamonds is set to expand under a new marketing agreement with De Beers. Several major mining projects were completed in 2015, including the development of the $244m Otjikoto gold mine, the $80m Tschudi copper cathode mine and the $200m Tsumeb sulphuric acid plant to supply the Rössing uranium mine.

ZAMBIA

BOTSWANA

NAMIBIA Atlantic Ocean

RAND EFFECTS SOUTH AFRICA

➔ Population: 2.3 million ➔ Population growth: 1.9% ➔ GDP per capita: $5,787 ➔ Life expectancy: 64.5 ➔ Adult literacy: 81.9% ➔ Inflation: 4.8% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 127 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $413.7m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -12.1% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 118% ➔ Key export: Diamonds ➔ Last change of leader: 2015 ➔ GDP growth (%)

4.5

4.8

12.9

13.6

12.9

13.7

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

5.1 ➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ President Geingob is focusing activities on an anti-poverty agenda

down as leader of the Rally for Democracy and Progress after the party lost its place as the leader of the opposition in the November 2014 legislative election to the DTA of Namibia, whose youthful leader McHenry Venaani is rebranding the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance party. Expanded mining and manufacturing output, along with higher government spending on infrastructure, will help keep economic growth resilient, despite prospective continued global commodity price weakness. Rough diamond prices are set to remain strong, while currently low uranium prices are forecast to recover during 2016 and 2017. The

Theprevailinglowglobaloilprice–which has also reduced offshore exploration activities – should keep inflation subdued, although the Bank of Namibia will continue modest interest rate tightening to rein in double-digit growth in domestic credit. The government’s foreign-exchange reserves weakened to some $1bn in 2015, although the central bank maintains reserves remain adequate to support the Namibia dollar’s one-on-one peg to the South African rand. The rand’s rapid depreciation in 2014 and 2015 caused Namibia’s import bill to soar, and this is the main external risk. An eventual decoupling from the rand is likely, although this is not feasible until foreign reserves are more substantial and provide greater import cover. Production at the $2.2bn Husab uranium mine, which is majority owned by China General Nuclear Power Group, is set to boost export earnings by a fifth and largely eliminate the foreign trade deficit. Husab is due to start up by the end of 2015, ramping up to full capacity of 6,800tn of uranium oxide per year by 2017, double the existing output from Namibia’s two operating mines. Government spending is set to sustain construction activity in the years ahead. Container capacity at Walvis Bay is being trebled by 2017 and the Southern African Development Community approved the building of a new gateway harbour just to the north of the current port. The current five-year national development plan to 2016/2017 named improved logistics capacity as one of the ‘basic enablers’ to meet a targeted 6% annual economic growth and the creation of 18,000 jobs per year. ●

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SOUTHERN AFRICA

COUNTRY 119 PROFILES

SOUTH AFRICA

Stuck in the slow lane 300 km

ZIMBABWE BOTSWANA

eputy president Cyril Ramaphosa told the National Assembly in September that he was very confident that South Africa could achieve the 5% annual real grossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthtarget the government craves by 2030. The distance of this date was Ramaphosa’s tacit acknowledgement of just how far off target the South African economy is right now, caught as it is in a storm of global and domestic headwinds. The adverse international climate includes the Chinese slowdown, the commodity price slump and the prospect of an interest-rate rise in the US – just the rumour of which has been enough to send the rand tumbling. Domestically, despite new power output, the country will see more power cuts for several years to come, and there is a prospect of worsening social unrest. Workers are angry that the ‘apartheid wage gap’ has remained as entrenched as ever. In the face of low domestic demand and rising costs, employers confine themselves to inflation-related wage increases. Drought drastically cut agricultural output during 2015, and it was 16.6% lower during the first quarter than the same period of 2014. It rained little since then, and in mid-September the government of the Free State, the country’s main maize-growing province, declared the drought “a disaster”. MINING, MANUFACTURING RISKS

Mining output rose in the wake of the prolonged strike by platinum miners in the first half of 2014, and the government has been talking up platinum’s prospects. However, a recent independent study predicted that output will fall in 2016 because of companies’ low capital expenditure. Meanwhile, gold mines could well face a round of major strikes. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Johannesburg

NAMIBIA

Atl. Ocean

PRETORIA

SWAZ.

SOUTH AFRICA

LESOTHO Durban

Cape Town

Indian Ocean

➔ Population: 52.8 million ➔ Population growth: 0.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $5,783 ➔ Life expectancy: 56.9 ➔ Adult literacy: 94.3% ➔ Inflation: 4.8% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 118 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $5.7bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -4.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 145% ➔ Key export: Gold ➔ Last change of leader: 2009 ➔ GDP growth (%)

1.5

1.4

1.3

366.2

350.1

317.3

326.5

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

2.2 ➔ GDP ($bn)

Manufacturing output too has been slipping despite a big fall in the value of the rand, which should have boosted manufacturing exports. This raises concerns that the country is failing in its efforts to industrialise. The trade balance did at least swing into surplus in the second quarter of 2015. This narrowed the current account deficit just enough for there to be a temporary halt in the slide in the value of the rand, which reached new lows in 2015, fuelling consumer price inflation. The government has little space in which to manoeuvre. It is targeting a fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP in

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2015/2016, but attaining that figure hinges in large part on public-sector workers settling for inflation-related increments, which they have said they are not prepared to do. This could mean further rounds of debilitating strikes. Another drain on the public purse will be parastatals like South African Airways, which continues to lose money despite new cost-cutting measures, and the Post Office, which has been losing R100m ($7.2m) a month. If extra money has to be found, the most likely item to take the hit – to keep the deficit target on track – will be capital expenditure. Some key projects, such as the upgrades to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal and its feeder railway network, and Eskom’s major power stations at Medupi and Kusile, are underway, but others may be put on hold. BRINGING OUT THE BIG GUNS

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The opposition looks to capitalise on the ANC’s waning popularity

MOZ.

➔ Economic headwinds mean that economic advances are as elusive as ever

The biggest political headache for the governing African National Congress (ANC) during 2016 will be local government elections. The opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), which already holds Cape Town, stands a chance of winning the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (Port Elizabeth) and has its sights set on Johannesburg and Tshwane (Pretoria) too. The ANC’s hold on Johannesburg is fragile, but most analysts expect the party to keep power in the city, though by a more slender margin. The party is going all out to prevent the loss of Nelson Mandela Bay (see box). Starting in January, the ANC will deploy all its big guns, including President Jacob Zuma, while cabinet ministers will be crisscrossing the country. They will be campaigning right up until the elections, leaving little time for much else. ANC members in Gauteng say they are under pressure to ensure that disgruntled black middle-class voters remain loyal. In a determined effort to increase its support in black communities, the DA – the country’s largest opposition party – appointed its former mayoral candidate for the city of Johannesburg, Mmusi Maimane, as leader in May 2015. He may

120 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

SOUTH AFRICA Stuck in the slow lane

FEMALE CANDIDATES

The key members of the premier league have been identified as including Mpumalanga premier David Mabuza, North West premier Supra Mahumapelo, Free State premier Ace Magashule and KwaZulu-Natal party secretary Sihle Zikalala. The group steered its preferred candidate Bathabile Dlamini to the presidency of the ANC Women’s League in

SAPP planned and required electrical capacity (MW)

90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0

Required

2012

SOURCE: SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL

have big shoes to fill, and the results of theupcominglocalgovernmentelections will be his first big test. The other parliamentary opposition party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), seems unlikely to gather substantial support. The year ahead could well see the emergence of a trade union federation to rival the Congress of South African Trade Unions, which is now seen as little more than the ‘labour desk’ of the ruling ANC – especially since the late 2014 expulsion of its largest affiliate, the metalworkers’ union, and the 2015 expulsion of its charismatic secretary-general Zwelinzima Vavi. President Zuma still has two years in office ahead of him, but factions are forming within the ruling party over who should succeed him. Open campaigning for positions within the party is frowned upon, but an informal group of powerful provincial ANC leaders, dubbed the ‘premier league’, has already given a strong indication of its preferences.

Capacity planned

16.6%

Agricultural production was down dramatically in the first months of 2015 August 2015. Dlamini has said she will “work tirelessly” to ensure that the party and the country have a woman president by the time her five-year tenure elapses. The candidate Dlamini has in mind appears to be Zuma’s ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. This strongly suggests that Dlamini-Zuma is the premier league’s choice for president too. In September, the premier league also managed to land its candidate, Collen Maine, as president of the ANC Youth League. If Maine goes public in his support for a woman president, it will be further evidence of the premier league’s intentions.

Dlamini-Zuma is, however, not the only possible female candidate. The other is national assembly speaker and ANC national chairperson Baleka Mbete. Mbete’s handling of the increasingly fractious assembly, however, where the EFF has tested parliamentary protocol and Mbete’s patience well beyond their limits, has garnered her public criticism. Particularly controversial was her decision to call in paramilitary security units to remove EFF members from the house during a heated debate in January 2015. Dlamini-Zuma, meanwhile, has been based in Addis Ababa in the prestigious position of chairperson of the African Union Commission. She is conveniently distant from the South African limelight, which will give her the opportunity to present herself as a safe pair of hands. Dlamini’s support for a woman president, which Zuma has said he shares, has put Ramaphosa on notice that his ascendency to the presidency will not be a smooth one. Ramaphosa was accused in the national assembly in September by EFF leader Julius Malema of being a murderer for his alleged role in the killing by police of striking miners at Marikana in 2012. Malema’s refusal to withdraw his accusation resulted in his forcible eviction from the national assembly. Yet Ramaphosa knows that Marikana is likely to be used by his opponents within the ANC as justification for opposing his candidacy for the party presidency. ●

The opposition looks for wider success IN THE EARLY MONTHS of 2016, national assembly members will only stay in Cape Town for the opening of parliament and the budget before heading out across the country to start campaigning for the local government elections to be held in May. In most parts of the country, the African National Congress (ANC) majorities are safe, but the challenge for the ruling

party will come less from opposition parties than the public’s apathy. Generating enthusiasm for local elections could be a steep test. The Democratic Alliance (DA) is focusing its attention and resources on the major cities in Gauteng and Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth). At the last local polls in 2011, the DA won 34% of the vote in Johannesburg, to the

ANC’s 59%. But that was before the formation of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which will be the wild card this time round. In Nelson Mandela Bay, where in 2011 the ANC won 52% and the DA 40%, the ruling party is so awash with factionalism that in May 2015 the leadership parachuted in South African Football Association boss THE AFRICA REPORT

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Danny Jordaan as the city’s mayor in a bid to stop the rot. In Limpopo, where the ANC has enjoyed massive majorities since 1994, the EFF is encouraged by winning a student council election and by its strong showing in the province in the 2014 national elections. In the face of some scepticism, the party claims it can win the capital Polokwane. ● •

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SOUTHERN AFRICA

COUNTRY 121 PROFILES

SWAZILAND

Feeling the pinch SOUTH AFRICA

MBABANE

he main political question heading into 2016 is how far will King Mswati III open up his autocratic regime. Growing pressure for democratic reforms from activists and the international community started paying off in 2015. In June and July, the government released high-profile prisoners, including human rights lawyer Thulani Maseko and the president of the People’s United Democratic Movement – Swaziland’s largest pro-democratic party – Mario Masuku, from jail. And the ministry of labour registered the Trade Union Congress of Swaziland in May after a three-year battle for recognition. As the European Union (EU) parliament prepares to vote on Swaziland’s eligibility for an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the Southern African Development Community in 2016, the kingdom has even extended an invitation to the EU to undertake a fact-finding mission in the country in the hope that it will put their human rights and democracy concerns to rest. Unconfirmed reports have been circulating in the media that the king has agreed to a meeting with pro-democracy groups to be chaired by the Commonwealth’s special envoy to Swaziland, former president of Malawi Bakili Muluzi. Should this happen, it could mark a step towards democracy and the improvement of the country’s shaky foreign relations. REVOKED STATUS

Swaziland has been experiencing severe economic pressure since US President Barack Obama suspended the country from the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) with effect from January 2015. This sent the country’s textile sector, which has depended on AGOA’s duty-free access provisions, THE AFRICA REPORT

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MOZAMBIQUE

➔ The economy is being squeezed by a significant decline in SACU revenue

Life expectancy at birth is just 49 years, and the kingdom has the world’s highest HIV prevalence rate at 26%. Seemingly immune from these realities, King Mswati III lives a lavish lifestyle along with his 15 official wives. The royal household budget, which is not debated by parliament, increased by 25% for the year 2015/2016. Many blame Mswati, who has ruled Africa’s last absolute monarchy since 1986, for the human rights abuses and political repression that are beginning to hurt the country’s economic fortunes. Political parties remain banned, and some opposition groups are listed as terrorist organisations under the 2008 Suppression of Terrorism Act. The government also continues to muzzle the media.

30 km

SWAZILAND

➔ Population: 1.2 million ➔ Population growth: 1.5% ➔ GDP per capita: $3,847 ➔ Life expectancy: 49 ➔ Adult literacy: 87.5% ➔ Inflation: 5.2% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 148 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $12.7m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: 1.1% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 71% ➔ Key export: Odoriferous substances ➔ Last change of leader: 1986 ➔ GDP growth (%)

2.9

2.4

➔ GDP ($bn)

1.9

CALLS FOR SPENDING CUTS

0.7

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.4

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The government has reluctantly begun to ease up on its repressive tactics

into a downward spiral. Threats from the EU followed in May with a warning that failure to comply with treaty commitments on labour and human rights would jeopardise the country’s $1.5bn in annual exports to the EU. Swaziland’s economic and social indicators are in a dire state. The textile industry, which until recently employed more than 17,000 Swazis and accounted for 3% of gross domestic product, suffered several factory closures in 2015. This further increased the unemployment rate, which currently stands at 40%. Nearly two-thirds of Swaziland’s population live below the poverty line.

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The African Development Bank predicts a lacklustre economic outlook next year, resulting from the revocation of the country’s AGOA status. This makes the ratification of the EPA even more crucial. The kingdom’s dependence on receipts from theSouthernAfricanCustomsUnionalso spells trouble in the year ahead. An International Monetary Fund team predicted a significant decline in revenue from the regional pool – in which South Africa is the major contributor – and called on the Swazi government to consider serious spending cuts. Continuing the trend of backing large infrastructure projects, the government is now in talks with its counterpart in Mozambique about constructing a 70km canal in order to give the country access to the Indian Ocean. Agriculture, which is vital for the more than 70% of Swazis who rely on subsistence farming, will remain the key pillar of the economy in the coming year. According to a report by the Global Agricultural Information Network, the kingdom’s sugar production is expected to increase from 680,881tn in 2014/2015 to a record 705,000tn in the 2015/2016 marketing year due to an increase in land under cultivation. Despite revoking Swaziland’s AGOA status, the US still allows dutyfree access for Swaziland’s raw sugar. ●

122 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

ZAMBIA

The political roundabout turns again ➔ Lungu has ushered in a comeback for associates of former president Banda

‘GODFATHER’ OF LUNGU VICTORY

Under Sata, the PF had made a public commitment to ending the endemic corruption and elitist style of the MMD. It had also attempted to reduce poverty by increasing expenditure on social amenities, including health and education, and by investing in infrastructure projects like roads, railways and electricity production. Under Lungu, the emphasis has been rather more selective, especially in regard to the MMD. He was quick to bring in several key Banda allies and to appoint them to senior posts not only in the PF but also in government. The

Ndola ANGOLA

ZAMBIA LUSAKA

pro-business, giving more leeway to politicians to engage in business ventures. PF chairperson for elections Musonda Mpakata declared the party was “rebranding” itself ahead of the 2016 general elections and that 70% of its current members of parliament would not be readopted for the next elections.

MOZAMBIQUE

A NEW POLITICAL IMAGE NAM. BOTSWANA

ZIMBABWE

200 km

➔ Population: 14.5 million ➔ Population growth: 3.2% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,576 ➔ Life expectancy: 58.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 63.4% ➔ Inflation: 7.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 141 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $2.5bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -1.4% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 71% ➔ Key export: Cathodes ➔ Last change of leader: 2015 ➔ GDP growth (%)

6.7

4.3

3.9

5.6

➔ GDP ($bn)

26.8

26.6

24.5

25.2

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

MALAWI

➔ Copper prices are too low to sustain production at some of the deepest mines resident Edgar Lungu will no doubt have strong hopes of winning the presidential and general elections due in September 2016, relying mainly on the fact that he will have already exercised power for some 18 months by that time, as well as on the tangible benefits of his government’s ongoing expansion of the road network. However, the rapid weakening of the economy and anticipated internal squabbles within the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) could yet undermine his hold on the reins of power. After winning a closely contested election against Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) in January 2015, Lungu set about rebuilding the PF in a different image from that of his predecessor, the late President Michael Sata. Sata’s death on 28 October 2014 had forced a sudden election for the presidency for which the PF was all too evidently ill-prepared. In the wake of his victory, Lungu controversially chose to foster ties with Sata’s foremost political rival, namely ex-president Rupiah Banda of the former ruling party, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD).

TANZANIA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

list includes deputy finance minister Christopher Mvunga, sports minister Vincent Mwale and education minister MichaelKaingu,aswellasBanda’sformer information minister Dora Siliya. Hardly surprisingly, Banda was quickly identified as the effective ‘godfather’ of Lungu’s election victory, with a clear motivation to restore his own political fortunes after losing power to Sata in 2011 and having being frustrated in his own efforts to hold onto the MMD presidency. Whereas the original PF manifesto had reflected the party’s strong socialist aspirations, Lungu also steered the party in the direction of becoming more

Lungu severed ties with those key Sata allies who had formed the so-called ‘cartel’ – consisting of former PF secretary general Wynter Kabimba, Post newspaper owner Fred M’membe, former vice-president Guy Scott and the suspended director of public prosecutions, MutemboNchito–whohadmadecrucial contributions to Sata’s key decisions. The group has definitively split from the PF and will back Kabimba for next year’s polls under his recently formed, and avowedly socialist, Rainbow Party. It is toutingatransformativepoliticalideology borrowed largely from Latin America. Political commentators compare the latest PF rebranding with earlier restructuring efforts by previous presidents, which also led to internal party squabbles and the weakening of the leading political machines – as when the late Levy Mwanawasa tried to rebuild the MMD to differentiate it from the party it had becomeunderthelateFrederickChiluba. The PF will be campaigning on the basis of its achievements in road building and in the continued provision of cheap inputs for farmers. In impoverished urban areas, it has little to offer. The PF has notched up victories in July’s parliamentary by-elections, but that is not a certain indicator for the outcome of the general elections. A strong electoral challenge to the PF will come from Hichilema and his UPND, which is increasingly confident that it can replicate its performance in the 2015 presidential poll – when Hichilema won 46.7% of the vote, only narrowly behind Lungu’s 48.3%. In an effort to expand the popular appeal of the UPND beyond the Tonga-speaking Southern Province and the more remote

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123

RECORD FISCAL DEFICIT

Copper production accounts for more than two-thirds of Zambia’s exports and a fifth of tax revenue. Attempts by the government to extract sharply increased mineral royalties from both open-cast and underground mining operations were eventually abandoned in July 2015 after the industry held out against the proposals. The government may have to revise its planned 2016 budget, which allows

Maize production (thousand tonnes)

2,929

3,380 2,682

-21% 2010-2014 average

2014

2015 estimate

Change 2015/2014

650MW

The electricity production shortfall has contributed to mining sector weakness for a 14% rise in spending. The budget includes rises in civil service salaries of between 9% and 29%, a move seen as an attempt to bolster the government’s support ahead of the election. A steep decline in the fiscal position means that the country is currently running its highest fiscal deficit in more than 20 years, estimated at about 7.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, up from 2.9% in 2012. With revenue consistently declining over the past four years, Zambia has been increasingly looking to capital markets to finance the gap, having issued $3bn worth of eurobonds since

SOURCE: FOOD & AGRICULTURE ORGANISATION

Western and North-Western provinces, the party has recruited the Sata government’s defence minister, Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba, in an effort to secure the allimportant Bemba vote. Also challenging the PF will be the Forum for Democracy and Development’s Edith Nawakwi and the Rainbow Party’s Kabimba. The Lungu government’s more immediate task will be in trying to reverse the recent deterioration of the economy and to disperse the widespread gloom over the declining living conditions of most Zambians. The economy has undergone its worst run in more than 20 years as copper mining, the national mainstay, has been hit by the dual effects of declining commodity demand in China and a nationwide shortage of electricity. As export values fell, the kwacha slumped some 37% against the US dollar over the 12 months to September, making it one of the world’s worst-performing currencies.

2012. As a result, the country’s public debt rose to an estimated 41% of GDP by the end of August. The uncertain weather in Southern Africa has not been kind to the wider economy. With more than 90% of available electricity hydro-generated, the lack of water in rivers and at key reservoirs behind the largest dams at Itezhi Tezhi and Lake Kariba has meant that state power utility ZESCO has been cutting power supplies to the mines. Companies have hadtoreduceproductionoruseexpensive dieselgenerators.Withthepowershortfall amounting to about 650MW, there have been knock-on effects on employment. The loss of jobs in the restive Copperbelt Province is likely to unnerve the ruling party’s bedrock support. Zambia has so far been lucky in that it has not suffered from drought as badly as some neighbouring states and so has had capacity to embark on a surplus maize export programme. The Food Reserve Agency has been ordered to work with the finance ministry to try to generate foreign exchange by boosting exports to Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo. This is only a short-term policy, however, because the bumper crop in 2014 had created a surplus. The maize harvest fell in early 2015 by 22% to about 2.6m tonnes and the drought conditions may persist, as many climatologists have been predicting. ●

Copperbelt on the brink of losing its copper bottom ZAMBIA HAS BEEN here all too often before. With the copper price falling in August 2015 below $5,000/tn for the first time since the financial crisis, several of its large copper mines now face acute problems of viability. Most Zambian mines, especially those based in the Copperbelt, are old and deep. They have high costs of production, and THE AFRICA REPORT

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their break-even point averages are $6,500/tn. In September 2015, two companies announced that they were suspending production at major mines for the foreseeable future. These are Glencore’s Mopani and China Nonferrous Mining Group’s Luanshya. In 2014, Glencore had accounted for more than a quarter of Zambia’s total

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copper output. While the withdrawal of this production from the world market could boost the copper price to healthier levels, this will bring little satisfaction to mine workers and Zambia’s government. Konkola Copper Mines (KCM), owned by Vedanta and accounting for more than 30% of national output, also began laying off dozens

of workers while the firm reviewed its operations. There is brighter news away from the Copperbelt thanks to First Quantum Minerals, which launched its $2.1bn Sentinel copper mine in North-Western province in August. It has lower costs of production than some of its peers and the capacity to produce up to 300,000tn per year. ●

124 COUNTRY PROFILES

SOUTHERN AFRICA

ZIMBABWE

Backwards and downwards ZAMBIA

➔ Tsvangirai is being wooed by several Mugabe foes and would-be successors

HARARE

ZIMBABWE Bulawayo

BOTSWANA

MOZAMB.

SOUTH AFRICA

200 km

Indian Ocean

➔ Population: 14.1 million ➔ Population growth: 2.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,037 ➔ Life expectancy: 59.9 ➔ Adult literacy: 86.5% ➔ Inflation: -1.6% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 156 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $544.8m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -22.9% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 96% ➔ Key export: Tobacco ➔ Last change of leader: 1980 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.3 4.5

1.4

2.4

➔ GDP ($bn)

13.5

13.8

13.9

14.3

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

MORE LAND INVASIONS

Droughtanddecliningmetalpricesmean that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced Zimbabwe’s projected economic growth for 2015 to 1.5%, down from the initial projection of 2.8%. The economy has yet to recover from the hyperinflation and chaotic land reforms of the late 1990s. The few remaining and productive white commercial farmers cut production again after being newly threatened with eviction by the authorities. Land invasions were stepped up in the last half of 2015, especially in Mashonaland East, where Mugabe’s currentandformeraidesgrabbedmoreland. With foreign investors for the most part refusing to accept the black empowerment regulations that compel

PRESSURE FOR REFORMS

*Estimation Oct. 2015

lmost halfway through his latest term of office as president, Zimbabwe’s 91-year-old Robert Mugabe is yet to raise the fortunes of his country’s moribund economy or to create the more than 2m jobs he promised when campaigning for re-election in 2013. The government’s failure to attract significant foreign direct investment over the past three years means that most citizens have lost hope for an economic boom. Against the evidence of recent performance, Mugabe continues to promise a boom in mining and agriculture. Only very belatedly, his government is planning legal changes that could yet remove bottlenecks for foreign investors, but his ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party has been preoccupied with power struggles at the expense of the economy. In 2015, Mugabe reshuffled his cabinet three times and reconfigured some key ministries, rewarding vice-president EmmersonMnangagwa’salliesintheprocess.

Paris Club in October. But until Zimbabwe can start to clear its foreign debt overhang of $10bn, it will remain cut off from any lending from development banks. Chinamasa wants to clear foreign debt arrears of more than $2bn. If he can do this and implement the IMF staff-monitored programme, he might yet be able to secure some credit lines.

MALAWI

➔ Winning international support could help to turn the failing economy around

all foreign-owned businesses to cede at least 51% of their shares to Zimbabweans, ministers have promised to review the law. Perhaps in anticipation of these changes, Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote promised in August to set up a cement plant worth more than $400m and a power station, while also expressing interest in the possibilities of coal mining. Mega-dealspreviouslyagreedbetween Mugabe and the Chinese and Russians are yet to materialise. In the meantime, finance minister Patrick Chinamasa will continue to try to engage with international creditors, having approached the

But the IMF warns that it will take at least three years to restore full international lending, while continuing to urge changes to investment rules and labour laws – something that the Mugabe government has been loathe to do. Harare watchers will be on the lookout to see how the government will try to balance the demands of international financial institutions and the ZANU-PF’s nationalistic base in the year ahead. To win over the IMF, Harare will have to improvethestabilityofthebankingsector and cut the civil service wage bill in 2016. The liquidity crunch has contributed to the closure of several banks. Throughout 2015, banks had been restructuring and provisioning for bad loans, which stood at 14.5% of total loans in June. Several banks have been recapitalised but more reforms are required to put the financial sector back on firmer footing. While production of nickel and copper is threatened by falling world prices, gold output is rising. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is forecasting a rise from 14tn in 2014 to 16tn in 2015 – with more production than ever from small-scale miners. The government is working on plans for a revision of tax and other legislation for the mining sector with the goals of attracting investment and raising revenue. Problems of transparency and good governance continue to plague the diamondsector.Chinamasahascomplained that revenue from diamond mining is not finding its way to the national fiscus. To address problems in diamond sales and marketing, the government proposed to amalgamate all seven companies operating in the Marange diamond fields.

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125

FORMING A NEW COALITION

A faction that split from Tsvangirai’s MDC that first called itself the ‘MDC Renewal Team’ – arguing that Tsvangirai is a spent force after failing to dislodge Mugabe in three consecutive elections – itself splintered in 2015. Former finance minister Tendai Biti, who was general secretary in the party, launched his own People’s Democratic Party while former energy minister Elton Mangoma launched the Renewal Democrats of Zimbabwe. Former vice-president Joice Mujuru, who was fired from both ZANU-PF and

Cotton lint production Area harvest

(hectares)

Seed cotton production

250,000 136,000

210,000

126,000 90,000

(million tn)

Lint production

190,000

55,760

51,660 36,900

(million tn)

2013-14

2014-15

$10bn

2015-16

The government’s debt overhang is preventing it from getting new finance the government for allegedly plotting to assassinate Mugabe ahead of the ruling party’s national congress in December 2014, made a political re-entry towards the end of 2015 by releasing a manifesto of her People First movement. That fuelled speculation that she will challenge Mugabe in 2018. People First and MDC insiders reported that Mujuru held talks with Tsvangirai in a bid to form a coalition for the next elections. Although Mujuru has rarely made public comments, her loyalists in the People First movement – former presidential affairs minister Didymus Mutasa and former

SOURCE:COTTON GINNERS ASSOCIATION

Ignoring the emptiness of the state’s coffers, Mugabe spent nearly $70m in foreign trips over the past year. He also created two new ministries after the comptroller had called for a reduction in the number of government employees. On the political front, Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party won a series of parliamentary by-elections in June after the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), called for a boycott. MDC leader and former prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai cited the government’s failure to implement key democratic reforms as the reason. Tsvangirai maintains that the 2013 polls that ended his coalition government with Mugabe were rigged. The fractured opposition has been demanding the realignment of the country’s laws to the new constitution adopted in 2013.

ZANU-PF spokesman Rugare Gumbo – joined Tsvangirai in calling for a united frontagainstMugabeandZANU-PF.They say they are ready to coalesce with political formations that share their values. On the other hand, ZANU-PF has reportedly been courting Tsvangirai with a view to forming a second unity government to help revive the ailing economy. Biti and former industry minister Welshman Ncube, who heads another breakaway MDC formation, have made it clear that they would not want Tsvangirai to lead such an opposition coalition, accusing him of dictatorial tendencies. Some civil society groups have been creating platforms for the country’s opposition leaders to discuss pertinent national issues. Non-governmental organisations have demanded the release of journalist-turned-activist Itai Dzamara, who has been missing since March. Dzamara, leader of the Occupy Africa Unity Square movement, had been calling for North Africa-style uprisings to force Mugabe to resign for pushing the country’s economy into the abyss. Civil society, the opposition and the international community have called on the authorities to put more effort into finding the missing activist, whose family accuses Mugabe’s government of being responsible for his disappearance. Zimbabwe’s poor human rights record has led to the country’s international isolation over the years. ●

Latest twists in the succession game ZIMBABWE’S vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa, who appears to be President Robert Mugabe’s preferred successor, is consolidating his power in both the ruling party and government structures. But first lady Grace Mugabe’s statement that she will stop at nothing in assuming higher political office may deal Mnangagwa’s quest for power a body blow. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Grace, who was elected to lead the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front’s (ZANU-PF) women’s league at the party’s congress in 2014, has however claimed that she has no presidential ambitions. ZANU-PF insiders say that she is leading a camp that wants to take over when Mugabe leaves office. The camp, known as Generation 40, is made up

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of ‘young turks’ such as local government minister Saviour Kasukuwere and Mugabe’s nephew, Patrick Zhuwao. Many in the country dislike Mnangagwa, who was the security minister when the North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade killed thousands of people in southern Zimbabwe in the 1980s. The party factions are not to openly declare their own

leadership intentions as long as they feel obliged to show that they still ‘respect’ Mugabe. ZANU-PF has already endorsed him as its candidate for the 2018 elections. This is in strict accord with the terms of the governing charter adopted in 2013 under which Mugabe is seen as still serving his first term in office and therefore eligible for a second term. ●

PAUL KAGAME

“The true story” CONVERSATIONS WITH FRANÇOIS SOUDAN

LE ON SA NOW

Two decades after the Rwandan genocide that claimed nearly a million lives in 100 days, Paul Kagame gives his side of his country’s history. The man behind the miraculous recovery of Rwanda, a controversial figure applauded by some and criticised by others, reflects on his political life, from his 30 years in exile and opposition to his time in power. He outlines his dream for Rwanda, a country that is overcoming its differences and uniting as a nation.

“We are a small country but not a small people” Paul Kagame

François Soudan, the Managing Editor of weekly magazine Jeune Afrique, has been a regular visitor to Rwanda over the past 15 years. His interviews with Paul Kagame took place in Kigali between December 2013 and December 2014.

130 pages, format 14 x 21 cm, 16€ Éditions Nouveau Monde/IDM Editions

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COUNTRY PROFILES

127

EAST AFRICA Red Sea

SUDAN

CONTENTS

SAUDI ARABIA

128 PEOPLE TO WATCH

ERITREA Massawa

ASMARA

CHAD

YEMEN

130 BURUNDI Gondar

DJIBOUTI

Gulf of Aden

131 COMOROS

DJIBOUTI Berbera Dire Dawa Hargeisa ADDIS ABABA Harar

SOUTH SUDAN

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

Jima

133 ERITREA

ETHIOPIA

Juba

134 ETHIOPIA 136 KENYA

Obbia

SOMALIA

UGANDA

138 RWANDA

MOGADISHU

KENYA

139 SEYCHELLES

KAMPALA Kisumu Lake Victoria RWANDA NAIROBI KIGALI

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

132 DJIBOUTI

BUJUMBURA

Kismayo

140 SOMALIA Indian Ocean

Mombasa

BURUNDI

DODOMA

TANZANIA

141 SOUTH SUDAN 142 TANZANIA

Zanzibar

144 UGANDA

Dar es Salaam

Mbeya ZAMBIA

300 km

MOZAMBIQUE

The annual budget for the East African Community for the 2015/2016 financial year, a reduction from the $126m allocated the year before

JANUARY Ethiopia African Union Summit FEBRUARY Uganda Presidential election APRIL Djibouti Presidential election MAY Rwanda World Economic Forum on Africa MAY Seychelles Presidential election EASTERN AFRICA 2015 GDP (% of regional total)

Kenya

638.9

10.9% Uganda

Tanzania 20.1% South Sudan 5.6% Seychelles 0.6% Rwanda 3.7%

EASTERN AFRICA POPULATION (millions)

TOTAL

1.3% Burundi 0.3% Comoros 0.8% Djibouti 1.9% Eritrea

$229.6bn 27.5%

425.6 299

27.5% Ethiopia 2016

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2030

2050

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

$111m

CALENDAR 2016

128 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

PEOPLE TO WATCH ETHIOPIA

Henok Teferra Spreading ASKY’s wings TANZANIA

As the new chief executive of Togo-based airline ASKY, Henok Teferra is bringing Ethiopian expertise to West African markets. Henok was previously a top strategy executive for Ethiopian Airlines, which owns a 26% stake in ASKY Airlines. Henok was approved to lead ASKY, which serves 22 destinations, in May 2015. Henok is working to expand the Lomébased airline’s services so that it covers not only more African regions but also destinations in Europe, the Middle East and beyond.

Thomas Samkyi The farmers’ financier

SAAD

A major lack of access to finance has long been the principal barrier to growing Tanzania’s predominantly smallholder farming sector, but the August launch of the Tanzania Agricultural Development Bank (TADB) is seeking to address that. The bank started operations with $50m in capital, which the government hopes to grow to $500m in the coming decade. The TADB aims to offer crucial finance to farms at low interest rates to fuel growth in the sector, which employs some 70% of the population. With a background in both development finance and agricultural economics, TADB managing director Thomas Samkyi is charged with providing finance to farmers groups. The softly spoken banker joined the Tanzanian Investment Bank in 1989 and rose through the ranks to become head of development financing. Samkyi’s TADB team is 18-strong and growing fast. The bank is already processing funding applications and hopes to start dispersing cash within 12 months.

KENYA

William Ruto A deputy president under pressure

ETHIOPIA

Seyoum Mesfin Pushing for peace

DENG JIAN/LANDOV/MAXPPP

The year 2015 was deputy president William Ruto’s annus horribilis. President Uhuru Kenyatta openly took Ruto’s men and women down in a purported anticorruption purge in April, even as Kenyatta’s people remained untouched. Meanwhile, Kenyatta’s virtual refusal to cooperate in efforts to get Ruto off the hook at the International Criminal Court (ICC) has been instructive for his supporters. With just about a year to go before elections, Ruto will be weighing his political options and watching the ICC proceedings with discomfort.

The brother of Azeb Mesfin, who is the widow of Ethiopia’s former premier Meles Zenawi, Seyoum Mesfin continues to play influential roles at the top of the Ethiopian political tree. The former foreign affairs minister has also been ambassador to China, a key ally. Mesfin now plays a role as chief mediator for the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in the South Sudan peace talks. Keeping South Sudanese rebel leader Riek Machar and President Salva Kiir from coming to blows will keep him busy. THE AFRICA REPORT

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129

UGANDA

Allen Kagina

Highway patrol

KENYA

Sauti Sol Boy-band bravado One to watch, or ‘Shake Yo Bam Bam’ to, in 2016 is music group Sauti Sol. From humble beginnings entertaining in nightclubs, these four young Nairobi musicians rose to playing at the 2013 inauguration of President Uhuru Kenyatta and made US President Barack Obama dance during a state dinner in Kenya in 2015. Now Africa’s most successful boy band, they are their country’s greatest export and represented Kenya at the 2015 World Expo in Milan. Sauti Sol was originally formed as an a capella group, and their fusion of pop, African beats and soulful harmonies has brought them industry awards including BBC’s 1Xtra Top African Act to Watch and MTV Europe’s Best African Act. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Within four months of becoming executive director of the Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA), Allen Kagina had sacked the entire staff. UNRA has for the past four years received the highest allocation from the national budget – at least $350m annually – but that kind of money has been a source of corruption. Kagina is a former commissioner general of the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA), and has started building her team with former URA staff. Kagina has the task of raising the number of kilometres of roads constructed annually from the current 200km to 1,000km. She says she will achieve that target within three years, but faces a murky land tenure system in which landowners are often reluctant to pave the way for construction works.

130 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

BURUNDI

Third term creates tremors ➔ Donors are threatening to withhold funds to the aid-dependent government

OPPOSITION IN EXILE

The opposition does not have a strong direction heading into 2016. Many leaders fled the country in 2015. Meanwhile, former Forces Nationales de Libération rebel leader Agathon Rwasa shocked his former allies when he took up a seat in parliament after calling for an electoral boycott. With the backing of Nkurunziza’s Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie-Forces de Défense de la Démocratie, Rwasa was elected deputy

TANZANIA

BURUNDI BUJUMBURA

Lake Tanganyika

100 km

➔ Population: 10.2 million ➔ Population growth: 3.2% ➔ GDP per capita: $315 ➔ Life expectancy: 54.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 85.6% ➔ Inflation: 7.4% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 180 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $32m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -11.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 24% ➔ Key export: Coffee ➔ Last change of leader: 2005 ➔ GDP growth (%)

DRIFTING EAST

4.7

-7.2

5.2

2.7

3.1

3.2

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

4.5 ➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

he instability of 2015 could spill over into 2016 as the government prepares to crack down on the opposition and insurgents after President Pierre Nkurunziza’s highly contested third-term victory in July 2015’s elections. Murders of oppositionists became common before and after the vote, which the opposition said was illegal because the constitution only allows for two consecutive terms, as had assassination attempts on senior officials. Burundi’s civil war ended just 10 years ago, and the country’s currently raised tensions could contribute to more violence. In late 2015, Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame called on his neighbours not to repeat the mistakes of the 1994 genocide. International mediation has achieved little so far. The United Nations appointed Senegalese mediator Abdoulaye Bathily to negotiate a peace settlement in June 2015 but the government intimidated its opponents, leading most opposition parties to boycott the vote. The African Union is preparing to send in a peacekeeping mission, if it should become necessary, and sanctions on anyone that contributes to a climate of violence. Nkurunziza’s government launched a new campaign to confiscate illegal firearms in November to rein in violence.

RWANDA

R.D.CONGO

➔ Rwasa’s U-turn has caused consternation in the opposition

peers. Burundi currently has troops in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Côte d’Ivoire. The Nkurunziza government is looking to expand its diplomatic horizons because of its soured ties with Western governments.WashingtonkickedBujumbura out from the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade deal in late October for its poor human rights record, and the European Union threatened to cut its aid and imposed sanctions on four security chiefs close to Nkurunziza.

Lake Kivu

speaker of parliament. He said he would fight for change from within the system, but other opposition leaders said he had been co-opted by the ruling party. The opposition in exile and at home founded a new coalition in August and elected exilé Léonard Nyangoma as its leader. The government launched the Commission Nationale de Dialogue Interburundais to find a solution to the conflict about the third term, but it is too soon to tell if it will achieve much. In 2016, the government is set to maintain its peacekeeping presence on the African continent in order to show that it is engaged in supporting its

In the meantime, Burundi has sought to improvetieswithChinaandRussia.Italso awarded a telecommunications contract to Turkey’s ITS in August. Nkurunziza has yet to figure out how to make up for suspended Western aid programmes, which typically account for about half of the national budget. Burundi’s recent economic growth has improved, and its programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expires in March 2016. Despite improvements in financial management, the IMF warns that the country has a high risk of debt distress. Most of the population is engaged in farming, but there have been few major investments in raising productivity. The government is continuing to sell off state-run coffee washing stations to private investors and the World Bank is lending its support through a programme to increase productivity. The government’s coffee sector plan seeks to double production to 30,000tn per year by 2021. Production has been dropping due to ageing trees. Tea is another major export crop and the sector is due to produce a crop of 11,000tn this year, up more than 9% on 2014’s harvest. The country has several mineral deposits that could be developed, but they require major investment in road, railway and electricity infrastructure. On the latter front, the country’s electricity production is due to increase more than twofold as new projects come online, reaching about 200MW by 2020. ●

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EAST AFRICA

COUNTRY 131 PROFILES

COMOROS

No jumpstarts likely ➔ Former president Sambi’s ambitions raise the spectre of political instability

uch like 2015, 2016 will be dominated by elections and the acute energy crisis that is crippling the economy. Juwa, former president Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi’s party, narrowly beat President Ikililou Dhoinine’s party, the Union pour le Développement des Comores (UPDC), in the February 2015 legislative elections. The polls went relatively smoothly, but the new parliament had a rocky start, with Dhoinine imposing his choice of speaker and secretariat with the help of the army. These tensions are illustrative of the mood ahead of the 2016 presidential elections. Under the Comoros’s system of rotating the presidency between the islands, the next president must be from Grande Comore. Regardless, Sambi, a native of Anjouan, has announced he will be a candidate. Sambi’s candidacy will heighten tensions between islands and risk jeopardising the relative stability the country has enjoyed over the past few years. There have been 20 coups and coup attempts since independence in 1975, with the last attempt in 2013. A coalition of politicians filed an objection to Sambi’s candidacy at the constitutional court in October, but the court said it was unable to adjudicate since he had not formally applied to be a candidate yet. Besides, the constitution simply requires a candidate to be residing on the island, not to be a native. DIASPORA VOTING

If Sambi runs for president, his prospects are good. He is popular and few politicians have his charisma or experience. There is one significant unknown however: for the first time in 2016, overseas Comorians will be allowed to vote. The electoral commission reckons that around 100,000 members of the diaspora THE AFRICA REPORT

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MORONI

Indian Ocean

COMOROS

NDZUANI (ANJOUAN)

Mutsamudu MWALI (MOHELI)

Dzaoudzi MAORE (MAYOTTE) (France)

30 km

➔ Population: 0.7 million ➔ Population growth: 2.4% ➔ GDP per capita: $736 ➔ Life expectancy: 60.9 ➔ Adult literacy: 77.8% ➔ Inflation: 2% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 159 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $14m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -15.7% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 47% ➔ Key export: Cloves ➔ Last change of leader: 2011 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.5

1.9

LAGGING REFORMS

2.2 1

➔ GDP ($bn)

0.7

2013

2014

0.6

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The government faces challenges over spending and the electricity crisis

21 February are reserved. Only the top three candidates will then fight it out in the second round on 10 April. Whoever wins the election is going to inherit a moribund economy. The country is suffering from a crippling lack of electricity. Ma-Mwé, the state utility, has months of arrears in wages and is no longer able to pay for the maintenance or buy the fuel it needs. Companies have had to resort to generators, which has increased their production costs, reduced their margins and in turn affected the state’s tax revenue.

NGAZIDJA (GRANDE COMORE)

will vote on top of the 275,000 residents listed on the electoral register. Sambi’s strong links with the Arab world – he studied in Iran and courted influence and investments from the region during his presidency – may not sit comfortably with the diaspora, however, the vast majority of which lives in France. More likely to find the diaspora’s favours is vice-president Mohamed Ali Soilihi from the ruling UPDC, and to a lesser extent, Grande Comore’s governor Mouigni Baraka, of the Rassemblement des Démocrates Comoriens. But they will have to convince Grande Comorian voters first, to whom the primaries on

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With help from the African Development Bank, Ma-Mwé purchased three new generators in 2015 to alleviate the crisis temporarily, but they came into production too late to rescue the year’s growth prospects. The government has plans to develop solar and geothermal energy, but these long-term ambitions will not solve the immediate crisis. What little economic growth exists is driven by private consumption, supported by remittances. Structural reforms meant to put the economy back on track have woefully lagged under Dhoinine’s tenure, and donor support is flagging. The International Monetary Fund withdrew its support in December 2013 and a new agreement between the two sides has yet to be established. After its visit in September 2015, the fund only offered a small disbursement of €3m ($3.3m) to clear the state’s wage arrears under its rapid credit facility. The funds will be subject to the government making major efforts to increase revenue collection. With the end of the Economic Citizenship Programme – the controversial sale of Comorian nationality – government revenue has dwindled. One important reform finally took place in 2015: Malagasy operator Telma won the Comoros’s second telecoms licence, ending Comores Télécom’s monopoly. The company should be operational in mid-2016. Plans to privatise the public operator are still on hold. ●

132 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

DJIBOUTI

Guelleh keeps them guessing ➔ President Guelleh had promised to step down next year but he may stay on ➔ New ports and airports will boost the economy but also raise debt levels

ARMED OPPOSITION

Meanwhile, the opposition says that it will not support the holding of elections in 2016 if the government does not create an independent national electoral commission that includes members of the opposition. Tensions have been high since the troubled legislative elections of 2013, and the opposition said that throughout 2015 there had been no advances on a deal struck in December 2014 to create a more level democratic playing field. The USN opposition coalition is calling for institutional reforms and more media and other freedoms. Some opposition groups have not given up the idea of armed opposition to the autocratic regime. The government launchedacampaignagainstmembersof the Front pour la Restauration de l’Unité

DJIBOUTI

Gulf of Aden

DJIBOUTI SOMALIA

30 km

➔ Population: 0.9 million ➔ Population growth: 1.5% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,805 ➔ Life expectancy: 61.8 ➔ Adult literacy: ND ➔ Inflation: 3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 170 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $153m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -31.4% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 27% ➔ Key export: Wood charcoal ➔ Last change of leader: 1999 ➔ GDP growth (%)

6 6.5

THE ADDIS CONNECTION

➔ GDP ($bn)

1.5

1.6

1.7

2013

2014

2015*

1.9

*Estimation Oct. 2015

n 2016, Djibouti is set to continue with its strategy of capitalising on its position at a key choke point for international trade and as neighbouring Ethiopia’s access point to the sea. Presidential elections are due to be held in April 2016 and 67-year-old President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh has given no indication about whether he plans to follow through with his 2011 announcement that he will retire. With the ruling Rassemblement Populaire pour le Progrès (RPP) calling for Guelleh to stay in power, it is likely that he will follow the example of many of his African peers and stay a while longer. While Guelleh has carefully avoided grooming a successor, there are just a few politicians who might be in a good position for such an eventuality. Economy minister and RPP secretary general Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh occupies two important positions. Union pour le Salut National (USN) spokesman Daher Ahmed Farah is distinguishing himself as a critical voice against the regime.

ETHIOPIA

The other relationship that is proving crucial for the regime is the one with Ethiopia. As a sign of their strengthening ties, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn made the first ever visit of a sitting Ethiopian premier in February. The Ethiopian government plans to start gas exports by 2017 and a $4bn pipeline will need to be constructed through Djibouti. Another group of companies signed a $1.6bn deal for a fuel import pipeline to link the countries in September 2015.

YEMEN

ERITREA

2016*

et de la Démocratie in late 2015 after some of its members attacked a construction company’s vehicles in September 2015. Guelleh announced in 2015 that talks with China are ongoing for Beijing to set up a base in the country, which has angered Djibouti’s allies in Washington. Chinese companies are backing huge infrastructure developments, and they are also building two new airports at a cost of $599m. The total value of infrastructure projects that Chinese companies are planning to develop is estimated at $10bn. The new container port at Doraleh and the new Tadjourah port facilities should be complete by 2018.

The railway line to the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, also being built by Chinese companies, is due to be operational in 2016. About 90% of Ethiopia’s exports already pass through Djibouti. The Addisgovernment is alsopreparingtosell some of the electricity that the country will produce from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. The government continues to expand its diplomatic connections. In 2015, a Turkish trade summit announced the construction of 10,000 low-cost houses and a special economic zone. However, the government’s conflict with the Dubaibased port management company DP World remained unresolved in 2015. The two sides have quarrelled over corruption concerns and other management problems at the Djibouti port. Djibouti’s central economic challenge is that its role as a military and logistics hub does not create many jobs or lift people out of poverty. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) argues that the authorities urgently need to diversify the economy and estimates that the country has an unemployment rate of 48%. The government has limited means for social spending because funding for new infrastructure projects is eating into the national budget. The fiscal deficit was due to rise to 13.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, with the debt burden rising to 81% of GDP in 2018. If the government does not rein in spending, it risks provoking a debt crisis. ●

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EAST AFRICA

COUNTRY 133 PROFILES

ERITREA

In search of friends Red Sea

SUDAN

ERITREA

➔ Mining activities are beginning to sustain fragile economic growth

AT ODDS WITH ITS NEIGHBOURS

Regional relationships, meanwhile, remain tense. A border dispute with Djibouti remains unresolved despite years of attempted mediation from Qatar – including a visit from President Isaias Afewerki to the Qatari capital, Doha, in August. Eritrea remains the unremitting enemy of neighbouring Ethiopia. However, the fragility of Asmara’s security apparatus became clear in August when a 600-strong group of Ethiopian rebels – who had been based on Eritrean soil with the support of President Isaias – defected back to Ethiopia via Sudan. The men reported that they had been in communication with Ethiopian intelligence services for a full year before the defection. The group’s use of Sudan THE AFRICA REPORT

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YEMEN

ASMARA

nAfrica’smostisolatedstate,newtrends are pushing the Asmara government into mending relationships that had become increasingly strained over the course of the past two decades. With a populationofabout6.3million,thelossof thousands of young people each month to emigration has led to a dearth of new recruits for domestic checkpoints and border posts, making security measures hardertoenforce.Theonlynationalbenefit from the exodus – financial injections in the form of remittances – is a highly unreliable basis for economic planning. Eritrea has begun to show greater willingness to engage with potential international donors, most notably the European Union (EU), which in 2015 raised the possibility of an increase in aid. Several European countries also sent representatives to Eritrea to investigate whether migrants from the country should continue to be granted amnesty, leading to controversy over whether the dialogue was meant only to serve the common interest of stemming the flow of migrants.

range of sectors, including defence, education and healthcare. Eritrea has also been lauded for its success in some areas of development, particularly basic healthcare. Maternal mortality has been slashed by more than three-quarters and child mortality by about two-thirds in the 22 years since independence, according to the United Nations (UN), and a full 98% of children have benefited from vaccinations.

SAUDI ARABIA

Assab ETHIOPIA DJIBOUTI

200 km

FORCED LABOUR ACCUSATIONS

➔ Population: 6.3 million ➔ Population growth: 3.2% ➔ GDP per capita: $630 ➔ Life expectancy: 62.9 ➔ Adult literacy: 73.8% ➔ Inflation: 12.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 182 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $46.5m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -2.2% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 5% ➔ Key export: Gold ➔ Last change of leader: 1993 ➔ GDP growth (%)

1.3 1.7

0.2

2.2

➔ GDP ($bn)

3.4

3.9

4.3

4.8

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Citizens continue to flee to escape forced and long-term national service

as the route to Ethiopia added insult to injury, suggesting Khartoum’s willingness to partner with Addis Ababa against Asmara’s interests. Under heavy sanctions for supporting terrorist movements in the region – a charge that Asmara routinely denies – Eritrea struggles to provide basic services to its population. Access to food, running water and electricity are limited. The government faces ongoing international criticism for using heavy surveillance, jailing journalists and forcing citizens to work in the national service for low wages and indefinite periods. The service supports a wide

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A scathing UN report released in June suggested that the government’s use of torture, extrajudicial executions and forced labour could constitute crimes against humanity, adding that an estimated 5,000 citizens flee the country each month. Officials in Asmara disputed the report, noting that its authors – who were not allowed into the country – relied heavily on testimony from migrants. The UN report also criticised Nevsun Resources, the Canadian company operating Eritrea’s only active mine, for using forced labour to facilitate production of copper and gold. Company executives and Eritrean officials denied the claims. Beginning in 2016, Nevsun is planning to expanditsproductionofzinc.Othercompanies including South Boulder Mines of Australia, Sunridge Gold of Canada and the Zara Mining Share Company, a joint venture between the China Shanghai Corporation for Foreign Economic and Technological Cooperation and the Eritrean National Mining Corporation, are pursing exploration and feasibility studies for gold and potash mines. Mining is the only bright spot for Eritrea’s economy. Economic prospects for ordinary citizens remain grim, with a private sector too weak to absorb young graduates. Eritrea’s tertiary education system has suffered through restrictive policies and diplomatic isolation, but an international academic conference planned for July 2016 in Asmara – the first such forum in more than a decade – is a recent example of coordinated grassroots and governmental efforts to improve the quality of higher education. ●

134 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

ETHIOPIA

The older generation stays the course ➔ A heavily managed political process leaves little space for opposition

NEW COUNCIL, OLD FACES

The most influential party within the coalition, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), elected only three new people to its nine-member executive council, but these were already veteran TPLF members like Getachew Assefa, the head of the powerful National Intelligence and Security Service. Notable

Gulf of Aden

DJIBOUTI

ADDIS ABABA

Dire Daoua

SOMALIA

ETHIOPIA

SOUTH SUDAN

300 km

in Libya. Critics of the government have said that the high rate of emigration from the country has been the result of a lack of economic opportunities. In April, a government-organised rally for the Libya victims erupted into a riot, with agitators and federal police exchanging a volley of rocks and tear gas canisters. Videos of security personnel using boots and batons to keep protesters in line raised concerns about police brutality.

YEMEN

SOMALIA

KENYA

POWER AFRICA INITIATIVE

➔ Population: 94.1 million ➔ Population growth: 2.6% ➔ GDP per capita: $702 ➔ Life expectancy: 63.6 ➔ Adult literacy: 49.1% ➔ Inflation: 10% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 173 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $1.2bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -12.5% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 27% ➔ Key export: Coffee ➔ Last change of leader: 2013 ➔ GDP growth (%)

9.8

10.3

8.7

8.1

➔ GDP ($bn)

47.5

54.8

70.2

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

ith a renewed, and overwhelming, electoral mandate, Ethiopia’s ruling coalition will carry on its rule according to the same fundamental policies laid out by late leader Meles Zenawi. There will be only minor tweaks to address ongoing international concerns such as widespread low standards of governance, the weak justice system and corruption. The general election on 24 May 2015 saw the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front and its regional allies – which fought their way to power in 1991 – take all 547 parliamentary seats. This was an even more one-sided result than in 2010, when the opposition Unity for Democracy and Justice party, commonly known as Andinet, won one seat. The poll further weakened the already struggling opposition groups, with the National Electoral Board having effectively dismantled Andinet. Although the elections had been seen as a good opportunity to introduce a younger generation into the national leadership, all four regional parties in the ruling coalition re-elected their pre-election chairmen and deputy chairmen at their congresses held in August. This means that Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, as chair of the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement, will retain the country’s top post for at least five years.

SUDAN

➔ Light manufacturing is seen as the future as new industrial parks spring up

Red Sea

party members who left their executive committees in 2015 include finance ministerSufianAhmedoftheOromoPeople’s Democratic Organisation and influential former communications minister Bereket Simon of the Amhara National Democratic Movement. Domestic tensions have been primarily focused on the series of tragedies befalling Ethiopian migrants in different parts of the world. Ethiopians have been among those lost at sea in attempts to reach Europe, attacked during an uptick of anti-immigrant violence in South Africa and beheaded by assailants claiming to represent the Islamic State rebels

In July, Barack Obama became the first sitting US president to visit Ethiopia. He and Prime Minister Hailemariam discussed trade, security and good governance, although human rights advocates in the country say little changed as a result of the visit (see box). Ethiopia remains a key defence partner to the West, hosting a US drone base in the southern town of Arba Minch and contributing troops to peacekeeping missions across the African continent – most notably in the fight against the terrorist group Al-Shabaab in neighbouring Somalia. With help from Power Africa, an Obama administration initiative to facilitate private investment in electricity projects, Ethiopia’s state-owned electricity corporation signed its first-ever independent power purchasing agreement in August. The counter-party, Icelandic company Reykjavik Geothermal, has set up local company Corbetti Geothermal Power to develop a geothermal plant that is expected to generate at least 1,000MW of clean energy. The project is set to be commissioned in 2018. Ethiopia is also a major recipient of official development assistance, though international aid was not without controversy in 2015 given the country’s record on civil liberties. Britain restructured its assistance in February so as not to contribute directly to the Promotion of Basic Services (PBS) programme, suggesting the move was due to Ethiopia’s developmental successes. But PBS had been embroiled in controversy over funds said to be used to force rural dwellers into villages, thereby clearing land for agri-

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cultural schemes. A new aid programme from the European Union, meanwhile, includes €800m ($881m) for Ethiopia over the next five years. ThebenefitsofChineseassistancehave been on display since the September start of operations of the $475m urban railway in Addis Ababa. China is pursuing a spate of infrastructure mega-projects – including roads, sugar factories and a railway connecting Addis Ababa with Djibouti that is set to become operational in 2016 – using loans from Beijing’s banks. Public investment drives much of the country’s economic growth, keeping in line with a development model that is largely state driven. However, following the issuance of a $1bn eurobond in late 2014, the government has shown more openness to foreign investors and is set to launch a secondary debt market soon. July saw the end of the government’s five-year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), which set ambitious targets covering everything from industrialisation to infrastructure and education. LONGSTANDING PROBLEMS

Ethiopia can boast significant progress in building roads, opening schools, improving healthcare and modernising agricultural practices over the past five years. But it struggled to boost its manufacturing and food processing sectors, despite the government’s vision of turning Ethiopia into a manufacturing hub.

Developed irrigable land target

2014/2015

15.6%

2009/2010

2.5%

4.1%

The manufacturing sector’s modest contribution to gross domestic product Manufacturing accounts for only 4.1% of gross domestic product, although the wider industrial sector contributes 14.3% – as compared to 40.2% for agriculture and 45.5% for services. The next plan, dubbed GTP II, is as ambitious as its predecessor and puts extra emphasis on light manufacturing. To meet its targets, the government will have to address longstanding problems linked to trade logistics, bureaucracy and an unskilled workforce. The Addis government sees new industrial parks as key to the transformation. It currently owns one operational park – which is

SOURCE: GROWTH AND TRANSFORMATION PLAN

135

undergoing expansion – near Addis and is working toward building four more. Ethiopia, which currently generates only 2,300MW of electricity, is pushing on with its self-funded Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which officials say was half finished in late 2015. The hydropower plant, which will have a capacity of 6,000MW, is scheduled for completion in 2017. A productive dialogue with Egypt and Sudan will be contingent on the results of an independent study into its impacts downstream in both countries. A major dam in southern Ethiopia, Gibe III, began filling its reservoir in 2015 and is expected to reach a capacity of 1,870MW in 2016. There has been criticism from environmental groups who worry that the dam, along with planned irrigation schemes, could severely reduce flows to Lake Turkana and endanger the livelihoods of tens of thousands of people in Ethiopia and Kenya. Drought and famine were looming threats for eastern Ethiopia after a light rainy season in 2015. According to United Nations agencies, the number of people in need of food aid shot up to more than 4.5 million from the 2.9 million previously projected. The year’s low crop yield will continue to have ripple effects. Ethiopia is keen to shed its image as a droughtravaged aid recipient, but this new wave of food insecurity is a reminder that despite its economic successes, broad-based development is still an uphill battle. ●

The jailing of the Zone 9 bloggers IN OCTOBER 2015, Ethiopia’s most high-profile court case came to an unexpected conclusion. Nine journalists and bloggers had been arrested in April 2014 under suspicion of planning terrorist acts and were charged under a sweeping 2009 antiterrorism law. Another blogger, who was abroad, was charged in absentia. For more than a year, human THE AFRICA REPORT

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rights groups and concerned citizens rallied to support the defendants. Diplomats attended the court hearings, standing side by side with bereft friends and family members. Still, their future looked bleak. Suddenly, in July 2015, five of the nine imprisoned were released. Journalist Reeyot Alemu, who had been arrested in 2011, was also

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set free. There were suspicions that the decision had something to do with an upcoming visit by US President Barack Obama, but Ethiopian officials insisted the prosecution dropped the charges independently. Then, in October, the judges dropped terrorism charges against the remaining five defendants in the so-called Zone 9 case, named

after the pro-democracy blog to which most of the imprisoned had contributed. Only one defendant remained on trial under separate charges of inciting violence. The Zone 9 trial shone a spotlight on Ethiopia’s dismal reputation for judicial independence and press freedom, and critics say their release should not be taken as a sign of progress. ●

136 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

KENYA

Puzzles ahead for the 2017 polls SOUTH SUDAN

➔ Infrastructure development will keep the economy expanding

UGANDA

K E N YA

THE CASE AGAINST RUTO

No less than four of Ruto’s ministers in the coalition government and some of his well-known allies have fallen by the wayside as a result of graft allegations. Ruto’s supporters say that the government did not stand by the deputy president after the ICC reinstated charges and demanded his presence in The Hague

Kisumu NAIROBI

TANZANIA

Mombasa

Indian Ocean

➔ Population: 44.4 million ➔ Population growth: 2.7% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,432 ➔ Life expectancy: 61.7 ➔ Adult literacy: 78% ➔ Inflation: 6.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 147 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $989m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -9.6% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 71% ➔ Key export: Black tea ➔ Last change of leader: 2013 ➔ GDP growth (%)

5.7

5.3

DROP IN TOURISM INCOME

6.5

6.8

➔ GDP ($bn)

54.9

60.9

63.1

68.9

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

fter enjoying the euphoria of internationalattentionfollowing the 2015 visits by US PresidentBarackObamaandPope Francis, Kenyans will once again face the anxieties of approaching elections in 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta hopes for a second term amid rising doubts about the identity of his running mate. Speculation has grown that deputy president William Ruto’s days in the coalition government are numbered. Ruto not only still has an International Criminal Court (ICC) case hanging over him, but he and his associates have had to face public accusations of corruption, becoming something of a liability for Kenyatta. The two men came together during turbulent times to clinch power in 2013 and avoid the ICC charges that arose from the post-electoral violence that gripped Kenya after the 2007 polls, when 1,000 people lost their lives. As a survival strategy, the two formed what became known as the Jubilee Alliance. The survival of this partnership will come under increasing strain as the elections come nearer. If Kenyatta were to run in the 2017 elections with Ruto as his second in command, the terrain would be clear for Ruto’s ascendancy at the end of the second term. Political commentators, however, say this looks very unlikely – as would be Ruto’s political survival if he should choose to challenge Kenyatta in the 2017 general elections.

Lake Victoria

and the Coalition for Reform and Democracy,launchedahigh-profilefundraising initiative to pay the teachers. Odinga and his allies have had few major victories in opposition, but the Jubilee Alliance has scored some own goals. Facing widespread criticism for continuing to tolerate corruption, the government has begun to turn its attention to reducing graft within the security services. Kenyatta stepped up pressure on commissioners and police commanders at the county level to become more accountable for security and to eliminate graft.Heacknowledgedthatthoseintending to harm Kenya still found it possible to exploit the country’s porous borders.

200 km

ETHIOPIA

SOMALIA

➔ There could be competition to be Kenyatta’s next running mate

to answer charges of crimes against humanity. When the ICC dropped two other cases, against Kenyatta in 2014 and Francis Muthaura in 2013, the government’s earlier condemnations of the ICC appeared to take a lower gear. The government emerged from one of its most difficult periods in office in September and October after all state schools closed for several weeks when teachers went on strike to demand the implementation of a 60% pay rise ordered by the Supreme Court. The issues raised seemed likely to recur in the run-up to elections as Raila Odinga, the leader of both the Orange Democratic Movement

The security forces launched new operations against the Somalia-based Al-Shabaab Islamist rebels in October in the Boni Forest along the SomaliKenyan border. The government said that fighters hiding in the forest had been responsible for recent attacks in coastal and north-eastern Kenya. The latest operation was due to take three months, but security experts said it could well last longer than that. The government has cultivated a lot of investor interest from the US, China and Japan in a bid to boost foreign direct investment and sustain the currently healthy rate of economic growth. Despite the weakening of the Kenyan shilling and a fall in tourism income, the government has issued confident growth projections for 2015 and 2016. Many of the current economic challenges are similar to those faced by most emerging economies, including a widening current account deficit, a rise in the cost of borrowing as investors in governmentsecuritiesdemandhigheryieldsand a weakening currency. Yields on Kenya’s $2bn eurobond rose astronomically, heading towards 9% since the country borrowedthemoneyin2014. Thatmeans Kenya is paying considerably more than what was initially budgeted for. Yields on the short-term money market for government’s borrowing needs have been

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137

STABLE COSTS FOR FARMERS

Kenyatta has also specified that his government hopes to reduce the high cost of agricultural inputs, to lower the cost of capital and financial services for farmers, and to promote value addition and agro-processing. Fertilisers are regularly distributed at subsidised prices, and the September opening of a new fertiliser factory in Uasin Gishu County should help keep prices stable. Tourism is expected to recover after concerns over security led to the num-

Tourist arrivals 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 Jan. 2013

July 2013

Jan. 2014

July 2014

$14bn

Jan. 2015

July 2015

Kenya’s expensive rail line should make it attractive as an East African hub ber of visitors in 2014 falling below a million for the first time in five years. While the number of arrivals in the first eight months of 2015 remained below expectation, at around 500,000, the tourism sector took heart from the perception that Kenya can still offer a competitive, as well as unique, travel product. The World Bank says that high spending on the standard gauge railway project and on the Lamu port will help to boost growth prospects and to stimulate domestic trade by lowering transport costs over the long term. The government still hopes that development of the railway

SOURCE: KENYA NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS

around 20%. With the government’s financing needs rising, traders are shunning the stockmarket for short-termsecurities. Inflation eased from 6.6% in July to 5.8% in August as lower food prices compensated for a rise in fuel costs. There are also risks in the agricultural sector because of predicted heavy rains. An important investment sweetener in the months ahead will be the writing off of the KSh39.7bn ($390m) owed by the state-owned sugar companies to the government’s sugar development levy fund. It is hoped that this can pave the way to the privatisation of the sector. In return for the write-off, Kenyatta said he expected to see accountability and diligence from those who run the sugar companies, which over the past two years have received extensive assistance for the rehabilitation of mills, the purchase of equipment and cane development.

will lure enough foreign investors and cushion the economy against external shocks. The $14bn rail line, financed by the Export-Import Bank of China and being built by China Road and Bridge Corporation since December 2014, will link Mombasa to Nairobi with an extension into landlocked Uganda. The Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) intends to expand capacity and to extend operations in Mombasa so as to rival competitors such as Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam and the port of Djibouti. The KPA will finance the expansion through loans to raise handling capacity to more than 2m twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) by 2022. The port is currently handling about 1.2m TEUs and plans to commission an additional container terminal with capacity of 450,000 TEUs in March. The authorities hope to boost capacity at its port to cater for rising domestic demand as the economy grows. There are also rising cargo volumes destined for landlocked neighbours such as Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Another element of the government’s infrastructure plans is an increase in electricity production. It is set to miss the original target of adding 5,000MW to the grid by 2016. National capacity was about 2,000MW in 2014 but a series of renewable energy projects will boost capacity. The 310MW Lake Turkana wind farm is due to begin production late next year. ●

Resolving a tricky oil route conundrum KENYA WANTS TO LURE foreign investors to support a vital oil pipeline that is expected to be the only route for Uganda’s oil exports once production begins from new wells being developed in Hoima District. Known as the Hoima-Lokichar-Lamu project, the 1,380km pipeline is key to Lake Albert discoveries in Uganda. Kenya is simultaneously THE AFRICA REPORT

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inviting investor interest in the development of the Lamu port, which is being touted as the gateway to the eventual development of South Sudan. Kenya and Uganda have started working on the modalities for the pipeline, which initial studies estimated would cost around $4bn. Japan’s Toyota Tsusho has completed a preliminary design and route plan.

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There are acknowledged risks around the acquisition of land and security where the pipeline is expected to pass, especially in northern Kenya. Although little information has been disclosed about how financing for the pipeline will be raised, the Kenyan government has indicated that each country will finance the costs of development within its own borders.

The companies currently involved – Tullow, Total and China National Offshore Oil Corporation in Uganda, and Tullow and Africa Oil in Kenya – are unlikely to make a final investment decision until October 2017. The initial plans show that the first flow of oil is expected in 2022, which is also the year that Tullow says it will start producing oil in Kenya. ●

138 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

RWANDA

Third-term lucky ➔ Plans are afoot to give Kagame at least seven more years in office

UGANDA

TANZANIA

➔ The economy is recovering its bounce thanks to tourism and mining

ADVERSE REACTION

The government is likely to contain and manage smoothly the issues surrounding the political succession, but analysts say that any amendment is likely to increase political risk in terms of long-term governance and could potentially lead to an adverse reaction from donors. The political uncertainty could also weigh on foreign direct investment, as some investors could adopt a wait-and-see approach before committing funds. Rwanda’s finance ministry says that 33% of the national budget is financed by grants and loans from donor coun-

DEM. REP. OF CONGO

Lake Kivu

KIGALI

R WANDA

BURUNDI

50 km

TARGETING FOREIGN INVESTMENT

➔ Population: 11.8 million ➔ Population growth: 2.7% ➔ GDP per capita: $742 ➔ Life expectancy: 64.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 70.5% ➔ Inflation: 2.1% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 151 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $267.7m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -10.6% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 56% ➔ Key export: Niobium ➔ Last change of leader: 2000 ➔ GDP growth (%)

4.7

6.9

6.5

7.5

7.9

8.5

9.2

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

wanda is facing new uncertainties as the country prepares the ground for the next presidential election in 2017 in which President Paul Kagame is now expected to run for a third term. There is a strong likelihood that a referendum will be held in 2016 to remove presidential term limits from the constitution. The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), the country’s ruling party which has dominated the political landscape since the 1994 genocide, has already given its support to a proposed amendment to the constitution’s Article 101 after some 3.6 million people – about 72% of Rwanda’s electoral roll – signed a petition in mid2015 to ask parliament to remove the presidential two-term limit. There is little in the way of a third term now. In August, the government appointed a constitutional review commission that will assist both chambers of parliament in amending several articles, with the focus being Article 101. In October, the supreme court threw out a challenge from the Democratic Green Party, one of the country’s smallest parties, which went to court to block such an amendment.

mending ties with Britain following the sharp setback to relations that followed the June 2015 arrest of the country’s head ofintelligence,EmmanuelKarenziKarake, inaccordancewithaEuropeanarrestwarrant. Relations will not recover quickly. Kigali has turned a deaf ear to London’s pleatoliftabanontheBBC’sKinyarwanda broadcastsandhasalsoaccusedBritainof engaging in a political conspiracy.

tries, funding that if stopped could cause economic instability. A previous aid cut in 2012 – in the wake of accusations that Rwanda supported the Mouvement du 23 Mars rebel group that was fighting the government in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo – temporarily sapped Rwanda’s economic growth. The government is seeking to reduce its donor dependence by raising more domestic revenue and is working on a new eurobond. Efforts to allow Kagame to continue in office for another seven years are opposed by the US, one of the country’s major donors. Rwanda has quietly started

Economic growth in 2015 is expected to rebound thanks to an improved business environment, supported by steady advances in regional integration, which is facilitating private investment. Kenya was due to begin exporting 30MW of electricity to Rwanda before the beginning of 2016. Rwanda has the capacity to produce just 160MW, and it is working with Kenya and Uganda to upgrade transmission capacity between the three countries. The government is also targeting a major rise in foreign investment in 2016 and published a new investment code in May 2015 that includes tax and other incentives. Tourism is Rwanda’s main foreigncurrency earner, and the country is pushing hard to become a conference hub. This is expected to take off with the anticipated entry of two global hotel brands in 2016. International chains Rezidor and Marriott are due to open hotels in Kigali in the first half of the year. Turkish firm Summa is due to complete the delayed, multimillion-dollar Kigali Convention Centre – a facility with 11 conference rooms with a seating capacity of 2,600 people, a hotel and several bars and restaurants – by March 2016. Events scheduled to be held in Kigali in the year ahead include the Africa Hotel Investment Forum, the World Economic Forum on Africa and an African Union summit. In 2015, the government awarded mining concessions to six companies for tin, tantalum and tungsten deposits. Located in western Rwanda, the mines are expected to export each year about 3,200tn of ore, worth some $45m, by 2020. ●

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EAST AFRICA

COUNTRY 139 PROFILES

SEYCHELLES

Good news keeps flying in VICTORIA

➔ Visitor numbers are soaring as air links expand across the Indian Ocean

MAHÉ

Indian Ocean

10 km

n ongoing surge in tourist numbers could underpin a new round of environmentally sensitive investment in this Indian Ocean hideaway. Now increasingly accessible from India, the Gulf and East Africa, these islands continue to nurture their unique ingredients for success. Politically as much as economically, this formerly authoritarian state is now busy liberalising and will be putting its democratic credentials on display in 2016 with two separate elections. In May, President James Michel will stand for a third and final term, although he is unlikely to be challenged seriously by Wavel Ramkalawan of the opposition Seychelles National Party (SNP) or any other contender. With its calls for lower taxation, the SNP hopes to pose more of a threat to the ruling Parti Lepep in the legislative polls due in October – unlike 2011, when the opposition boycott meant that the SNP ended up with no representation in the 32-seat parliament. In a fair election, the opposition is thought to be able to take at least a third of the seats. ELECTIONS TRANSPARENCY

Agreement has at last been reached between the parties on vital changes to the democratic rules, which now allow public inspection of the voters’ register, while Seychellois living abroad will be allowed to vote as long as they hold a national identity card. For the first time, the political parties will also have to disclose to the electoral commission their expenditure and their sources of any donations larger than $500. Thanks to a surge in tourism, the economy seems set to remain buoyant in the short term, but the underlying economic balance remains delicate. Although the fiscal situation has been healthy enough for the national budget to record a surTHE AFRICA REPORT

SEYCHELLES

SILHOUETTE

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10 km

PRASLIN

LA DIGUE

150 km

➔ Population: 0.1 million ➔ Population growth: 0.6% ➔ GDP per capita: $14,466 ➔ Life expectancy: 73.2 ➔ Adult literacy: 95.2% ➔ Inflation: 4.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 71 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $228.7m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -15.2% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 147% ➔ Key export: Tuna ➔ Last change of leader: 2004 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.3

3.5

3.7

1.4

1.5

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

the funds released be channelled into environmental conservation. Air Seychelles has been expanding its operations and now flies to France, South Africa, Tanzania, Madagascar, Mauritius, Abu Dhabi, Mumbai and Hong Kong. It should benefit from the raising of new capital by its 40% equity partner Etihad of Abu Dhabi and hopes to eliminate its ongoing operational losses before 2017. SURGE IN TOURIST ARRIVALS

➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Democracy will be given its first serious test after new electoral reforms

plus, several state-owned enterprises are in a fragile financial condition. A July report from the International Monetary Fund urged the government to ensure improved governance and performance for the parastatal companies as well as wider reforms to increase private sector participation in the economy. Total public debt stands at close to $1bn, or more than 50% of gross domestic product, but there have been intensive efforts to reduce the level of foreign debt, including a February 2015 Paris Club agreement whereby the Seychelles was allowed to buy back $30m of debt at a discount on condition that

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In the first eight months of 2015, there was a 19% increase in tourist arrivals, with 182,089 visitors recorded, compared to 153,489 over the same period of the previous year. The top 10 source markets were France, Germany, Italy, United Arab Emirates, Britain, China, Russia, South Africa, Switzerland and India. The tourist board noted a surge in arrivals from India after the introduction of three direct flights a week from Mumbai in December 2014. Relations with India are warming fast following a visit by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in March and a reciprocal visit by President Michel in September. Michel invited Indian investors to partner with Seychellois enterprises and indicated that his government is considering signing maritime security agreements. Oil exploration is continuing in Seychellois waters, with the involvement of Australia’s WHL Energy. Initial estimates suggest the presence of more than500mbarrelsofoilintheJunonblock 115km south-east of the island Mahé. The future of Seychelles’ offshore financial industry is now under renewed scrutiny. The Organisation for Economic CooperationandDevelopmenthasraised concerns over the country’s tax transparency rules. Over the past 20 years, the Seychelles has registered around 140,000 firms as ‘international business companies’, but Barclays Bank Seychelles decided in September to end its banking services for non-residents in foreign currencies. The bank says that tougher global regulations mean that financial institutions are “increasingly restricting business relationships with high-risk clients”. ●

140 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

SOMALIA

Scandals, battles and reprisals ➔ The fighting against the Al-Shabaab insurgency is far from over

Hargeysa

➔ Fishing is profiting foreigners more than locals, raising the risk of piracy

ETHIOPIA

RESILIENT REBELS

Parliamentarians and their factions are manoeuvring to be in the best position for a vote that will most likely be largely determined by regional Somali elders, as was the case in 2012. Security is a serious concern, and it continues to hamper election preparations. Al-Shabaab is destabilising the country despite being flushed out of the urban strongholds of Mogadishu and Kismayo and parts of southern and central Somalia. The government claims to have liberated 75% of the country, but Kenyan and Ugandan troops are set to remain deployed under the aegis of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) for the foreseeable future, with the increasingly active support of Western countries. Analysts say that AMISOM is using a tit-for-tat approach and it needs new strategies. In September, marking a year

SOMALIA

Indian Ocean

MOGADISHU KENYA

200 km

➔ Population: 10.5 million ➔ Population growth: 2.9% ➔ GDP per capita: ND ➔ Life expectancy: 55.1 ➔ Adult literacy: ND ➔ Inflation: ND ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): ND ➔ Foreign direct investment: $105.5m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: ND ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 49% ➔ Key export: Sheep ➔ Last change of leader: 2012 ➔ GDP growth (%)

INDIAN OCEAN’S COMPETITION

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

ND ➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

omalia’s turbulent road to recovery continues. As so often before, much-needed economic development tends to be stymied by scandals while victories in the battle against Al Qaeda affiliate AlShabaab are overshadowed by reprisals that demonstrate all too clearly that the war is far from won. The semblance of relative political stability will continue to be supported by nearly $500m in donor funding as the country prepares for elections scheduled to be held no later than August 2016. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has reiterated that these cannot yet be held on a ‘one person, one vote’ basis and so it remains unclear what form they will take. The government is still considering options for regional or state electoral colleges. Puntland may also be included in the voting, although it still has its own president and parliament.

in poverty. Previous humanitarian gains are now diminished by poor harvests. Oil, gas and fisheries are resources Somalia could benefit from, but each sector is struggling. In July Britain’s Serious Fraud Office raided the London offices of Soma Oil and Gas as part of an ongoing investigation into a $500,000 capacity-building programme with Somalia’s petroleum ministry. Soma, exploring 60,000km off the coast of Somalia, said it had done nothing wrong and accused the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia, which provided the bulk of the evidence about the firm, of fundamentally misunderstanding their agreement.

DJIBOUTI

since the deadly US drone strike against leader Ahmed Godane, Al-Shabaab stormed an AMISOM base about 90km south of Mogadishu, killing at least 12 Ugandan soldiers. This highlighted the fact the movement has middle-tier combatants who can take leadership roles. Insecurity continues to result in desperately poor social indicators. In 2015, the United Nations (UN) reported a 17% increase in Somalis facing food shortages. That includes 855,000 people, two-thirds of whom remain internally displaced. An estimated67% of youth, more than 40% of the population, are unemployed. About three-quartersofthepopulationareliving

WithoneofthelongestcoastlinesinAfrica, Somali’s fisheries have massive potential, but corruption and lack of coordination mean that illegal fishing is rife. Foreign fishingfleets,mainlyfromIranandYemen, are currently taking around three times more fish than Somalis, causing growing resentment and the risk of further piracy – which had been effectively stopped by coordinated international naval action. Livestock continues to be Somalia’s main source of cash and earned a record $350m from exports to Gulf states in 2014. In its first review of the economy in 25 years, the International Monetary Fund said the economy expanded 3.7% in 2014. But no new loans can be granted until the country clears its arrears of about $328m. Somalia’s diplomatic contacts have beenexpanding.Turkey’sPresidentRecep Tayyip Erdogan visited in early 2015 to launchseveralprojectsincludingrebuilding the Mogadishu airport terminal and a 200-patient hospital. It was his second visit and highlights the growing Turkish influence, which includes military training and humanitarian relief efforts. Since 2011, Turkey has spent $500m on projects and direct budget support. Not to be outdone, John Kerry, the US secretary of state, made a surprise visit to Mogadishu in May. The US reopened its diplomatic mission to Somalia, based out of its Nairobi embassy, in 2015. ●

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EAST AFRICA

COUNTRY 141 PROFILES

SOUTH SUDAN

Disarming the warlords CAR

SOUTH SUDAN

fter two years of intense civil war, with thousands killed and the displacement of at least 1.5 million people, most South Sudanese can only hope that 2016 will see the start of the healing that their recently independent state needs. But the fact that armed clashes again broke out within weeks of the signing of the August peace deal between President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar did not bode well. Moreover, the two sides remain sharply divided over key points of the agreement – which was only signed after intense pressure from the United Nations (UN) Security Council and regional leaders. The warring parties – the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and the SPLA in Opposition (SPLA-IO) – notionally agreed to a monitored ceasefire and to the sharing of government positions over a 30-month transitional period before elections are held in 2018. Much now depends on the good faith of the parties, but there are also critical questions about how the deal will be managed and whether it can be financed effectively. At a time of declining revenue from a reduced level of oil production, there could be an intolerable strain on the domestic budget after fighters from both sides are assembled in the expectation of payment, not least because no one knows the size of the respective forces. PEACE MONITORING CRUCIAL

A viable peace agreement will require some mechanism to protect it from further breaches. This will take on increasing importance as the critical security issues are tackled, including the personal protection to be provided for the leaders of both sides and the planned ‘demilitarisation’ of the region around the capital, Juba. The key question to be THE AFRICA REPORT

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SUDAN ETHIOPIA

➔ The budget prioritises defence and security, leaving welfare to agencies

CHAD

JUBA

KEN.

DRC UG.

200 km

➔ Population: 11.3 million ➔ Population growth: 4% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,083 ➔ Life expectancy: 55.3 ➔ Adult literacy: 31.9% ➔ Inflation: 41.1% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): ND ➔ Foreign direct investment: -$700m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -4.8% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: ND ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 2011 ➔ GDP growth (%)

29.3

2.9

-5.3

0.7

➔ GDP ($bn)

15.3

14.3

12.9

13.8

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

answered before the agreed timetable can be convincingly enacted concerns the power vested in those monitoring the transition. Another uncertainty within the peace deal is the compromise proposal to grant the rebels 33% of representation in the national government plus a larger proportion of power in the three most conflict-affected states: Unity, Upper Nile and Jonglei. Here the rebels had agreed to take 53% of seats, but the government only later accepted 40%. In a subsequent move, Salva declared on 2 October that the existing 10 states would now become 28. Riek and the SPLA-IO oppose this and

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say the government of national unity will have to draft a new constitution. For the most part, the international community was united in forcing the warring sides to the table and could yet be ready to support the peace process financially and materially, but neighbouring states seem to prefer following their own different agendas. Salva has managed to retain strong support from Uganda, while Riek has benefited from the good will of Ethiopia as well as from alleged material assistance from Sudan. What happens in the months ahead will be a critical test of these countries’ professed intention to achieve a peaceful resolution of the conflict. CONFLICT WEIGHS ON ECONOMY

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The peace agreement signed by both sides has many loopholes

More than four years after independence, the process of state building remains deeply problematic. The economy suffered a strong contraction as oil production fell by around 20% to 165,000 barrels per day as a result of the war. Outside the oil sector, livelihoods are concentrated in subsistence livestock herding and agriculture. Any prolongation of the conflict could severely reduce food production, creating the risk of widespread hunger and potential famine. The recent decline in oil prices has further aggravated the losses of oil revenue and has required painful adjustments as the fiscal deficit has grown to an estimated 10% of gross domestic product. Military expenditure has increased dramatically, jeopardising the availability of resources for service delivery and capital spending on muchneeded infrastructure. The government will be under increased pressure to conserve resources in view of its heavy dependence on donors, UN agencies and non-governmental organisations to provide healthcareand humanitarian assistance. International project support has been sharply reduced, although China has been lending for its companies’ reconstruction of Juba international airport and the World Bank has approved funding for a fibre-optic cable to connect the country with Kenya. ●

142 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

TANZANIA

Can the technocrat deliver? RWANDA

LITTLE POLITICAL CAPITAL

Having conceded ground to Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) and other opposition groups, Magufuli is in the unenviable position of attempting to enact reforms with a weakened mandate and enjoying little political capital from within the CCM. However, Chadema is divided by its defeat and leader Freeman Mbowe’s position has been threatened because of his support for Lowassa. Managing the resource boom represents Magufuli’s greatest challenge, and it was the perception of Magufuli as an adroit technocrat untouched by the corruption scandals that have tainted the party’s hierarchy that led to him being

Lake Victoria

KENYA

Arusha

BURUNDI

s President John Magufuli settled into his office in State House in November, his political honeymoon was likely to be short-lived. Not only was the election bitterly contested, but the way ahead is strewn with obstacles, including divisive constitutional wrangles and the challenge of implementing laws to harness the country’s copious gas reserves. Outgoing President Jakaya Kikwete handed over a national economy in the midst of an investment and infrastructure boom but gripped by a growing divide among the population as rural workers flock to the cities in search of jobs. Frustration at the slow pace of change was behind the surging popularity of the opposition parties’ Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi coalition, which gained new clout through the efforts and resources of its presidential candidate, Edward Lowassa. His defection from the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party made the 25 October election the closest in the country’s history. Magufuli took just 58.5% of the vote.

400 km

UGANDA

Indian Ocean

➔ The government is borrowing large sums for infrastructure projects

DRC

DODOMA Dar TANZANIA es Salaam ZAMB.

The electoral commission controversially threw out the Zanibar’s presidential election results in October after the opposition declared victory, and a new vote is likely. With the CCM’s control over Zanzibar once again fragile, Magufuli is unlikely to commit to a referendum until he has greater control within his party and government. SUSPENDED BUDGET SUPPORT

MAL. MOZAMBIQUE

➔ Population: 49.3 million ➔ Population growth: 3% ➔ GDP per capita: $968 ➔ Life expectancy: 61.5 ➔ Adult literacy: 80.3% ➔ Inflation: 5.6% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 159 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $2.1bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -8.2% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 55% ➔ Key export: Tobacco ➔ Last change of leader: 2015 ➔ GDP growth (%)

6.9

44.4

48.1

46.2

46.9

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

7.3 ➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The October 2015 elections were by far the closest in the country’s history

chosen as the CCM candidate instead of Lowassa. However, his victory in the October poll depended on CCM’s extensive patronage network and campaigning machinery, which reaches deep into the countryside. The issue of constitutional reform has landed squarely in Magufuli’s lap. His predecessor refused to take a decision on the controversial issue in April 2015, postponing a referendum until after the elections. This was despite the fact that he had forced through a vote to keep the status quo two-tier government structure in defiance of the demand for a three-tier structure in October 2014.

Corruption remains another significant challenge. The high-profile jailing for three years of former finance minister Basil Mramba and former energy minister Daniel Yona in July 2015 for abuse of power may have gone some way in alleviating US pressure to combat the problem after Washington threatened to withhold a $472.8m aid package. European donors have also continued to withhold budget assistance since the government failed to take strong action on the latest in a series of scandals in the energy sector. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to rise on the back of investment in the gas sector and public spending on infrastructure projects. Agriculture remains the backbone of the economy, however, representing some 25% of GDP and employing around 80% of the population. But its growth, at around 4% in 2015, lags behind that of the rest of the economy. Productivity remains low, with subsistence farming the norm. Initiatives such as the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania – to create a development zone to attract foreign investment in industrialised projects with the promise of reduced red tape and fast-tracked decision making – have so far failed to produce results. Lower oil prices have helped to reduce the trade deficit, but low prices for the country’s chief export, gold, dampened earnings in 2015. In 2016, export revenue will be reinforced by modest growth in other export sectors, such as coffee, tea and cotton, although the ongoing economic difficulties in Tanzania’s primary export markets – the European Union and China – will hold back growth. The central bank has been

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143

PROMISING PORT PROJECTS

Development is driven by the promise of Tanzania’s gas reserves, which are the fourth largest in Africa – after Nigeria, Algeria and Mozambique – although significant gas production is not expected until after 2020. Transport and logistics projects are taking centre stage. In addition to a $700m drive to expand and streamline the processing of goods transiting Dar es Salaam port, the government unveiled plans in March for the construction of

2015 election results JOHN MAGUFULI CCM

58.46%

8,882,935

EDWARD LOWASSA Party CHADEMA Percentage

Popular vote

39.97%

6,072,848

$11bn

Construction on the vast Chinese-backed Bagamoyo port began in October 2015 a $11bn port project in Bagamoyo. This Chinese-backed scheme would dwarf existing regional port facilities, but some are sceptical it will be realised. Construction began in October 2015. Transport minister Samuel Sitta announced a $14.2bn regional rail network plan, with around $9bn worth of contracts going to a Chinese consortium for a 2,561km standard gauge railway connecting Dar es Salaam to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda. A 1,000km standard gauge rail line to link Mtwara with coal and iron ore mines is also planned, as

SOURCE: NATIONAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION

trying to support the shilling, which lost 20% of its value against the US dollar in the first nine months of 2015. The country is still without a sovereign debt rating, despite concluding talks with Fitch Ratings in June, delaying its plan to issue a eurobond to raise around $1bn from the international markets. Finance minister Saada Mkuya Salum said the bond would be issued in late 2016, while also announcing that the government was in talks with banks over a syndicated loan of up to $800m, earmarked for infrastructure spending. From December 2015, foreigners from outside East Africa should be able to buy treasury bills and government debt, freeing up capital markets that are crucial to funding the government’s expansion plans. The central bank is also overhauling its monetary policy and benchmark lending rates.

are road building programmes to ease congestion in Dar es Salaam. Gas is already used to generate more than 40% of the country’s electricity, and this contribution is set to rise further. Drought in 2015 forced the switching off of most hydroelectric dams so that national output was reported in October to be a fraction of regular demand of 870MW. A much delayed 532km gas pipeline connecting Mtwara to the Symbion 112MW plant and the 150MW Kinyerezi facility, both outside Dar es Salaam, should soon allow for a significant increase in generating capacity. Plans have been finalised for another $344m 240MW power plant at Kinyerezi, although electricity utility TANESCO has long been mired in debt, totalling some $400m in 2014. China’s economic slowdown will take its toll on Tanzania. Trade between the two was worth $3.7bn in 2013, while Chinese investment in the country exceeds $4bn, according to data published in May by the Chinese Embassy in Tanzania. However, as Chinese growth slows, Tanzania may find support from the US, which seeks to switch its role in Africa from one based on aid to one focused more on investment and trade. Much hope rests on the incoming government to ensure that jobs are created for the looming population explosion, which will see the population of 53 million more than double by 2050. ●

Luring the tourists, but losing the elephants ALTHOUGH TANZANIA’S natural gas resources hold vast promise, tourism is emerging as a key industry. A record of 10% growth in tourism revenue in 2014/2015 means that the sector now rivals mining as a source of national income. Visitor numbers rose by 4% to 1.1 million in the 2014/2015 season, and the authorities now hope for two million THE AFRICA REPORT

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within three years. The tourism board has engineered a successful advertising campaign to market the country’s northern city of Arusha as a more authentic and unspoiled starting point for a safari holiday than its much longer established rival of Nairobi, Kenya. The push has targeted US and British tourists, the two main sources of visitors in

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the country. The industry will be prevented from continuing its double-digit growth unless there is a concerted effort from government to boost infrastructure, such as transport links, and to simplify complex tax legislation that is deterring foreign investment. The industry’s future could also be threatened by the devastating impacts of elephant, rhino and lion

poaching. Government figures released in June were very revealing of the damage. A nationwide aerial survey showed a 60% drop in elephant numbers in five years, from 109,051 in 2009 to 43,330 at the end of 2014. If Tanzania cannot combat rampant poaching the country will almost certainly fail to prosper from this spectacular natural resource. ●

144 COUNTRY PROFILES

EAST AFRICA

UGANDA

The brink of change ➔ The opposition could unite to provide a challenge to Museveni in the 2016 vote

ith presidential and legislative elections coming round again in February and March 2016, Uganda is teetering on the brink of potentially significant change. President Yoweri Musevenihopestoextendhis30-yearrule for yet another term, and the opposition parties will be much more confident of making sweeping gains if they can craft a united front. A turbulent election period could prompt another bout of economic instability, with prices soaring as they did after the equally cash-fuelled 2011 election, and yet the wider economy still holds great promise – just as long as the government carefully watches the macroeconomic indicators. In the opposition parties’ favour, the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM)hasneverbeforebeensofractured aheadofageneralelection.Formerprime minister Amama Mbabazi – who played a key role in marshalling support for the NRM during the 2011 elections – broke ranks with the party in 2015, although he retains his membership. EFFORTS TO SHOW SOLIDARITY

The principal challenge for the opposition will be to present a single candidate who has the support of all the major parties in time for the elections. The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), the largest opposition party, overcomes a bitter contest for presidential flag bearer between Kizza Besigye and General (retired) Mugisha Muntu. Besigye won the right to represent the party in September and called for the opposition to boycott the 2016 polls unless the government implements reforms to make the vote more free and fair. Tentative plans for solidarity in the Democratic Alliance, a newly formed loose coalition of opposition political

Gulu

UGANDA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

KAMPALA Mbarara

Jinja KENYA

Lake Victoria TANZANIA

RWANDA

➔ Population: 37.6 million ➔ Population growth: 3.3% ➔ GDP per capita: $625 ➔ Life expectancy: 59.2 ➔ Adult literacy: 73.9% ➔ Inflation: 5.7% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 164 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $1.1bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -10.5% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 44% ➔ Key export: Coffee ➔ Last change of leader: 1986 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.9 4.8

5.2

5.5

25.6

27.6

24.9

26.6

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

Western Region offended the incumbent, Major General Matayo Kyaligonza, a bush war hero who says Rwabwogo’s association with the first family offers him unfair advantage. He threatened to join the opposition if Museveni does not rein in Rwabwogo. A further cause for NRM concern has been General David Sejusa, a former intelligence coordinator who played a key role in crushing protests during and after the 2006 and 2011 elections. After returning from 18 months of selfimposed exile in Britain in late 2013, he emerged as one of the government’s most vocal critics. His alignment with the opposition denies the ruling party one of its most experienced spy chiefs. ON WOMEN’S SIDE

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Big infrastructure projects raise concerns about a surge in public debt

100 km SOUTH SUDAN

parties, failed to bear fruit in September 2015. It could not decide between Mbabazi and Besigye, who ran against Museveni in the past three presidential elections. The two were in talks in October about a deal to choose a single opposition candidate. In the lead-up to the polls, the government had been using the security forces to arrest and intimidate members of the opposition. The ruling NRM has its own internal problems. Quarrels within the party have also filtered into the lower structures. The decisionbyOdrekRwabwogo,Museveni’s son-in-law, to enter politics and run for the vice-chairmanship of the NRM in the

Having been chosen once again by the NRM, Museveni can still rely on significant support in poor rural areas as well as on the powerful business community’s concern forcontinuity. Healsoappearsto be able to count on loyalty among many women voters, who see him as displaying more genuine concern for women’s issues than most of his opponents. The political uncertainty will leave investors cautious until the elections are over. The Bank of Uganda has lowered its forecast for economic growth for the financial year 2015 from 5.8% to 5.4%, as interest rates in the market have shot up, dampening any uptake of credit by the private sector. There has also been a recent slump in the construction industry, a key sector for gauging investor sentiment. Due to a drop in commodity prices and a weaker global economic outlook, the shilling traded at unprecedentedly low levels and fell 23% against the US dollar between mid-2014 and mid-2015. In a late August 2015 statement to Uganda’s manufacturers,whohavebornethebrunt of a weak shilling as many of their inputs are imported using dollars, outgoing central bank governor Emmanuel Tumusiime Mutebile said that core inflation would inevitably rise over the next 12 months. Earlier, the bank had stressed

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145

OIL INDUSTRY UNCERTAINTY

The oil industry is finally beginning to take shape after prolonged uncertainties. The incorporation of a national oil company, the interest of 16 companies in the next round of licensing for five new oil blocks, the selection of a preferred partner for the refinery and plans to start drilling 700 wells around production sites all show the industry’s momentum. But the slump in global oil prices to less than $50 a barrel in 2015

Under-five mortality with MDG target (Deaths per 1,000 live births)

200

178

150 100

69 59

50 0 1990

MDG Target 1995

1990

23%

2005

2010

2015

The shilling’s depreciation over a year on a shift away from emerging markets threw the viability of projects into doubt. Although first commercial production is still expected to start in 2018, Ireland’s Tullow Oil cut its investment expenditure for 2015 and France’s Total and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation reduced staffing levels. The government’s selection of Russia’s RT Global Resources in February 2015 to construct a $4.3bn refinery came with promise that the oil industry was on the verge of takeoff. Kenya and Uganda now seem determined to build an oil export pipeline to the Kenyan port of Lamu. In addition to the challenges of financing

SOURCE: IGME

that it would not finance government borrowing and would use its policy interest rate to forestall the danger of inflation rising above the medium-term policy target of 5%. Investor sentiment has been mixed. Some foreign companies have closed their branches in the country. British Airways stopped flights to Entebbe in July and South Africa’s Shoprite shut down a store in May. Others see a bright future. Uganda recorded more mergers and acquisitions in 2015 than at any other point during the past five years. International insurance firms such as Prudential and Old Mutual bought stakes in local companies as they widen their footprints across the region. Kenya’s Brookside Dairy acquired Sameer Agriculture and Livestock in May and international food chain KFC continues to open up new stores around Kampala.

such an expensive facility, government officials admit there are risks related to the acquisition of land and security where the pipeline is expected to pass, especially in volatile northern Kenya. Other national infrastructure requires massive spending too. The planned standard gauge railway is estimated to cost $8bn, while three large energy plants – the 600MW Karuma Dam and the 180MW Isimba and 400MW Oriang power plants – will cost at least $3bn. Regardless of the shape of Uganda’s economy after the elections, major issues lie ahead. Uganda’s huge infrastructure bill has partly contributed to the rise in debt and left the country staring at a widening current account deficit. The country’s public debt stood at $7.6bn by July. The debt to gross domestic product ratio went up to 34% in the 2014/2015 financial year, up from 30% the previous year.Thisfigureis,however,stillbelowthe agreed East African Community (EAC) benchmark of 50%. On the regional front, there are ongoing tests to cohesion within the EAC. A controversial trade deal that allows cheap Ugandan sugar into Kenya and Kenyan beef into Uganda provoked fierce criticism in Kenya in August 2015 because the Kenyan sugar industry has been struggling. Meanwhile in South Sudan, Museveni has been making his own peace efforts in the hope of speeding that country’s entry into the EAC. ●

An upsurge in youth militia training AHEAD OF THE 2016 elections, there have been worries about the creation and revival of paramilitary youth groups, some of whom can be expected to engage in street combat with the opposition. The police force controls both the Crime Preventers and the Kiboko Squad. In August, President Yoweri Museveni oversaw the graduation of 3,340 Crime THE AFRICA REPORT

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Preventers from a police training school in Masindi. An official statement declared that they had been exposed “to basic selfdefence techniques, crime prevention initiatives and entrepreneurship”. The capital city’s mayor, Erias Lukwago, has formed a counter force called Solida. And Gilbert Bukenya, who quit the ruling party to run

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for the presidency before returning in October, created his own Wolves Brigade. To add to the mix, presidential adviser on political affairs Kakooza Mutale, who had for the last couple of years retreated to his up-country farm, has returned to the political scene with the revival of his infamous Kalangala Action Plan – a brigade of youth

who, ahead of the 2001 elections, brutalised people who were against Museveni. While the interior ministry has warned Mutale against his group spreading terror, no firm action has been taken against him. Lukwago says he will not disband his group unless Mutale does the same. Any showdown could influence the electoral process in key regions. ●

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COUNTRY PROFILES

147

CENTRAL AFRICA CONTENTS

LIBYA

ALGERIA

148 PEOPLE TO WATCH NIGER

MALI

150 CAMEROON

CHAD Lake Chad

152 CENTRAL AFRICAN REP.

Abeche SUDAN

N’Djamena

153 CHAD

BENIN NIGERIA

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

CAMEROON Douala

Yaoundé

Malabo

Libreville Port-Gentil

GABON

156 EQUATORIAL GUINEA 157 GABON

Kisangani

Mbandaka

CONGO

Brazzaville

Pointe-Noire

SOUTH SUDAN

Bangui

EQUAT. GUINEA São Tomé SÃO TOMÉ E PRÍNCIPE

154 DEM. REP. OF CONGO

ETHIOPIA

Goma

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Bukavu

Kinshasa

UGANDA

158 REPUBLIC OF CONGO

KENYA

RWANDA

159 SÃO TOMÉ E PRÍNCIPE

BURUNDI TANZANIA

Matadi Atlantic Ocean

Lubumbashi

ANGOLA

300 km

The estimated GDP growth in 2015 for the six member states of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, a drop from 4.7% in 2014

CALENDAR 2016

EARLY 2016 Central African Republic Presidential elections APRIL Chad Presidential election JULY Republic of Congo Presidential election AUGUST Gabon Presidential election NOVEMBER Equatorial Guinea & DRC Presidential elections CENTRAL AFRICA 2015 GDP (% of regional total) Democratic Republic of Congo Chad 10.3% Central African Rep. 1.4%

34.3% TOTAL $113.9bn TOTAL

$113.9bn

Cameroon 25% •

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CENTRAL AFRICA POPULATION (millions) 303.6

Republic of Congo 7.8% Equatorial Guinea 8.8%

192.3 130.7

12.1% Gabon Sao Tomé and Principe 0.3%

2016

2030

2050

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

2.8%

THE AFRICA REPORT

MALAWI

ZAMBIA

148 COUNTRY PROFILES

CENTRAL AFRICA

PEOPLE TO WATCH REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas

Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas is following his celebrated late father’s career path, making him a potentially pivotal player in recreating opposition to Denis Sassou Nguesso as next year’s presidential election approaches. His father, Bernard, a charismatic foe of Sassou Nguesso’s 1980s Marxist regime, fled after defeat in the 1997 civil war but later returned from exile to join the power structure, opening the door to an eventual ministerial post for his son. But Sassou Nguesso’s determination to seek yet another presidential term proved too much for the younger Kolélas, who played a leading role in the October 2015 referendum opposing the abolition of term and age limits. He was effectively under house arrest as polls opened. Kolélas is expected to retain a measure of political space in the 2016 election.

DENIS ROUVRE

The comings and goings of an oppositionist

CAMEROON

Blick Bassy Blues in Bassa The eclectic Cameroonian bluesman is going from strength to strength after getting a big international boost in 2015 when one of his songs was featured in an Apple commercial. With about two decades in the business, he sees music as a way both to innovate and to preserve the past. He sings in the Bassa language and calls on the Cameroonian government to support the use of local languages. His third album, Akö – which is inspired by American Delta blues singer Skip James – earned strong reviews for its catchy melding of banjo, trombone and other instruments. He is working on plans for a new international touring schedule. THE AFRICA REPORT

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149

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

CAMEROON

Joseph Beti Assomo Battling Boko Haram As the newly promoted defence minister, Joseph Beti Assomo is in charge of the government’s response to attacks launched by the Nigeria-based Islamist rebel group Boko Haram in northern Cameroon. He has expertise that his predecessor did not have, having governed the Extrême-Nord Region from 2010 to 2012. He will have to focus on questions of strategy, logistics and governance as soldiers are complaining that they are not receiving all of their salaries. Beti Assomo has got the attention of Cameroon’s international partners who are seeking to fight terrorism. In October, Washington announced that it plans to send 300 troops to help the Cameroonian armed forces to fight Boko Haram.

THE AFRICA REPORT

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N ° 76

Storming the DRC with song Fabrice Mbuyulu, aka ‘Fabregas le métis noir’, is Kinshasa’s latest singing sensation. He scored big hits in late 2015 with the songs ‘Mascara’ and ‘Lifobo’. This young singer started out in music with the choir of Saint-Alphonse Catholic church in Kinshasa and has developed the ability to perform in a number of musical styles. Fabregas, 28, got his break in 2008 when he joined Werrason’s orchestra as a singer, and began his solo career in 2012. ‘Ya Mado’, the dance that accompanies the fast-paced ‘Mascara’, is filled with provocative, hip-shaking moves, and has taken the capital and the country by storm. ‘Lifobo’ is a folky tune showcasing Fabregas’s gentler side. The result is cult status for Fabregas among Kinshasa’s ambianceurs (party crew), setting the scene for further smash hits from this rising star in 2016.

SAAD

FERNAND KUISSU

Fabrice Mbuyulu

GABON

PierreEmerick Aubameyang Goal-scoring phenomenon

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Corneille Nangaa CENI

Electoral mission impossible Corneille Nangaa, who is currently the deputy executive secretary of the Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante (CENI), has been proposed by religious leaders as the man to succeed the commission’s current boss, Apollinaire Malu-Malu, who resigned from the job in early October. President Joseph Kabila had asked the religious leaders to name a successor, and it seems likely that their choice will be endorsed by the national assembly. If he is appointed, Nangaa will have a difficult – if not impossible – task on his hands. Provincial, national and presidential elections are supposed to take place during 2016, but the electoral roll is out of date, the CENI lacks the budget, almost no preparations have taken place for these polls so far and the signs are that Kabila wants to hang on past the end of his mandate.

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After stepping up his efforts and changing his lifestyle to suit high-level competition, Borussia Dortmund’s striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has become the leading African scorer in international football this season. As The Africa Report went to press, he had scored 20 goals in 17 appearances and became the first Bundesliga player to score in every one of the first seven matches of the season. There is now talk that Chelsea, Arsenal and Barcelona are interested in the goal-scoring pro. If Aubameyang keeps up this pace, he could be a shoe-in for an African Footballer of the Year award next year.

150 COUNTRY PROFILES

CENTRAL AFRICA

CAMEROON

Biya versus Boko Haram ➔ Washington is helping out in the fight against Islamist rebels

CHAD

➔ The government plans to issue a debut eurobond to finance infrastructure

Garoua

NIGERIA

Douala YAOUNDÉ

Gulf of Guinea EQUATORIAL GUINEA

GABON

CONGO

➔ Population: 22.3 million ➔ Population growth: 2.5% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,234 ➔ Life expectancy: 55.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 75% ➔ Inflation: 2% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 152 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $501.2m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -5% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 70% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 1982 ➔ GDP growth (%)

5.6 5.7

OPERATION EPERVIER

5.3

5.4

28.5

30.8

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

29.6

31.8

2013

2014

BIDING TIME

The RDPC is maintaining its leadership in place, and the opposition Social Democratic Front is doing the same. Members of 74-year-old John Fru Ndi’s party complain that it needs new leaders in order to reinvigorate the debate and challenge Biya at the polls. Fru Ndi has been the party’s chairman since 1992 and resists change. Younger leaders like party vice-president Joshua Osih have risen up the ranks and are biding their time. Cameroon’s political environment is not propitious for the opposition. Local authorities often fail to deliver authorisations for political party meetings or protests. The media also complains that the government is not impartial. In 2015, the Conseil National de la

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

CAMEROON

*Estimation Oct. 2015

o major political changes are expectedin2016as82-year-old President Paul Biya prepares to extend his 33 years of rule for another presidential term in 2018. While Biya has not said if he will retire or run again, he spent 2015 renewing the structures of the ruling Rassemblement Démocratique du Peuple Camerounais (RDPC). His party controls the national assembly with 148 seats out of 180 and the senate with 82 seats out of 100. Using co-option and other tactics, the regime continues to destabilise the opposition. Biya tends to stay out of the limelight and spends long periods in his village or on trips abroad, often to Switzerland. Despite plans to boost the economy over the next few years, the government does not have many important policies to push through next year. However, it has yet to set up the Conseil Constitutionnel, which was created in principle in 1996 but still does not exist. In the constitution, this court is charged with adjudicating electoral disputes.

order to fight against suicide bombings and put mosques under greater surveillance. In October, the US agreed to send 300 soldiers and some drones for an indefinite period to assist the Cameroonian armed forces. The opposition points to the links between the lack of development and the riseofIslamicextremism.TheCameroonian government has not been doing much to improve the livelihoods of the country’s population. A report from the Institut National de la Statistique found that the number of people living below the poverty line rose from 7.1 million in 2007 to 8.1 million in 2014.

200 km

Communication handed out temporary suspensions to at least 12 media outlets and a dozen or so journalists. The biggest challenge that Cameroon faces in 2016 is on the security front. The authorities have promised to raise the pressure on the Nigeria-based Boko Haram Islamist militants. The group has increased the number of attacks and kidnappings in Cameroon’s Extrême-Nord Region since 2014 (see box). As a consequence of the fighting, the government has tightened its security measures throughout Cameroon’s largest cities. In 2015, the government also forbade the wearing of the niqab in certain regions in

Corruption is rife in Cameroon, and it ranked 136th out of 175 countries in Transparency International’s 2014 Corruption Perceptions Index. Biya has continued to fight the scourge through Operation Epervier. Critics, however, say that the programme has merely sought to eliminate the regime’s enemies rather than reduce corruption. One of Operation Epervier’s recent high-profile targets was ex-finance minister Polycarpe Abah Abah, who was found guilty of embezzlement in January 2015 and sentenced to 25 years in jail. The former director of the national refinery company, Charles Metouck, was also sentenced to 15 years in prison in October. To finance its infrastructure-building programme, Biya’s government is preparing to launch the country’s firstever eurobond. The issue could raise as much as $1.3bn. In December 2014, the government announced that it would spend $1.75bn for an emergency programme to raise Cameroon’s economic growth over three years. There are several new infrastructure projects which should come on-line in 2016. Two container ports at Kribi, in southern Cameroon, should be operational next year. They should help to decongest the port of Douala, which has struggled with the level of merchandise imported for transhipment to its neighbour, the Central African Republic.

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151

The 15MW hydroelectric dam at Mekin is also set to begin producing power next year, while the 30MW Lom Pangar dam will start generating electricity. Its capacity will be used for a rural electrification programme in eastern Cameroon. Cameroon has a major electricity deficit despite the fact that it has thesecond-largestpotentialhydroelectric capacity after the Democratic Republic of Congo. Companies and households are affected by regular power cuts. Several new projects should boost electricity production substantially. In July 2015, the government signed a deal with Morocco-based Platinum Power to build a 400MW dam at a cost of $965m, but it will only be operational in 2020. In November, the Yaoundé government signed a framework deal with France’s EDF to build the $1bn Nachtigal dam to produce 420MW from 2021. The project will be connected to the national grid and will also supply power to the government-owned aluminium factory in Edéa. OIL-SECTOR INJECTIONS

The construction of several other projects is set to start in 2016, among them a new port at Limbe. The Société Nationale de Raffinage (Sonara) is also financing the building of a petroleum products pipeline that will link Limbe to Yaoundé via Douala and Edéa. The government will continue to push for higher oil production in the year

Electricity production and targets

6,000

(MW)

3,000 1,100 2014

2020

2025

SOURCE: WATER AND ENERGY MINISTRY, CAMEROON

$650m

The government expects significantly lower revenue from the oil sector in 2016 ahead despite low prices. The country welcomed a new investor in the oil sector in 2015 in the form of London-based Tower Resources, which will explore at the Thali block in the Rio Del Rey Basin. In 2015, the Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures announced that production had hit 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the first time since 2002. New fields that began production since 2013 are responsible for the rise, and the government only estimates that production will reach an average daily rate of about 95,000 bpd in 2016. The national budget predicts that oil revenue in 2016 will

drop to 397.2bn CFA francs ($650m) from 774bn CFA francs in 2015. The government also has reforms in mind for the refining sector.Sonara needs a cash injection of about $1.5bn to pay debts and expand the capacity of its refinery at Limbe. As part of plans to turn the southern town of Kribi into a major trade hub, the government signed an agreement in June 2015 for a feasibility study with Russia’s RusGaz for a refinery. Construction and finance are two key sectors driving Cameroon’s growth. Agriculture remains an important source of employment, but the sector is not receiving much investment. For the last few years, cocoa output has been nowhere near the record high of 240,000tn produced in the 2010/2011 season. However, the 2014/2015 harvest produced 232,530tn. The government is backing new programmes to attract young people to agriculture and aims to increase cocoa production to 600,000tn and triple coffee production to 100,000tn per year by 2020. In 2015, the situation of Camair-Co, the national airline, went from bad to worse. The government relaunched the transportation company in 2011 and it has beenlosingmoneyeversince.Passengers tried to burn down a Camair-Co office in September 2015 when the company stopped operating flights, leaving them stranded. The government will need to come up with more money if the outfit is to remain a going concern. ●

Boko Haram on the back foot but not beaten ON 14 AUGUST 2015, the Cameroonian government announced that it is going to mobilise 2,450 troops for the regional force to fight against Boko Haram. That brings the total number of Cameroonian troops facing the Islamist rebels to 9,000. Before the government announced its open hostilities with the group in August 2014, its position was passive in the face of THE AFRICA REPORT

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the militants’ use of northern Cameroon as a base for activities, including the trafficking of arms and goods. Now, the armed forces have bases in almost all of the country’s border towns. They are there to protect military bases from Boko Haram attacks and to gather intelligence about the fighters’ positions in neighbouring Nigeria. While this strategy

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has allowed the army to push back all of Boko Haram’s attempted advances, it has not enabled the government to defeat them. The Islamist fighters have also been infiltrating the mobile populations of Cameroon’s northern regions where their attacks have caused populations to flee. In its latest attack, two female Boko Haram members killed

three Nigerian refugees in a vehicle in Cameroon on 9 November. In response, the police and gendarmerie are now playing a greater role in launching preventive actions. Non-governmental organisations and the media have been critical of the government’s security response and its cracking down on freedoms in the hunt for suspected terrorists. ●

152 COUNTRY PROFILES

CENTRAL AFRICA

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

Transitioning troubles ➔ The government may yet again delay elections planned for December

300 km

CHAD

SUDAN

➔ The DDRR process and an economic relaunch will require more donor money

THREAT POSED BY REBELS

The son of former president Ange-Félix Patassé, Sylvain, is one of the two politicians who had made their intention to run clear by late 2015. The other is AnicetGeorges Dologuélé, a former president of the Banque de Développement des États de l’Afrique Centrale. More candidates are likely to join the race as the elections approach. Insecurity remains an extreme challenge to the holding of elections through-

Berberati BANGUI DEMOCRATIC REP. OF CONGO

CONGO

CAMEROON

➔ Population: 4.6 million ➔ Population growth: 2% ➔ GDP per capita: $338 ➔ Life expectancy: 50.2 ➔ Adult literacy: 36.8% ➔ Inflation: 5.7% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 185 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $3.5m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -11.8% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 29% ➔ Key export: Tropical wood ➔ Last change of leader: 2014 ➔ GDP growth (%)

EXERTING CONTROL

5.5

5.7

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.8

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

-36 ➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

ext year could be when the CentralAfricanRepublic(CAR) gets back on track to peace and stability. The crisis that overthrew the sitting government in 2013 and led to armed groups taking control of 80% of the country’s territory has left deep wounds that will take years to heal. Presidential and legislative elections had been planned for October 2015, but they were delayed until 27 December and could be postponed yet again due to logistics, security and funding problems. Before those elections can be held, the government must organise a referendum on a draft constitution. Donor governments are putting pressure on the government to ensure that the political transition wraps up as quickly as possible, but on the current agenda a second round of presidential polls will take until January or February 2016. Catherine Samba-Panza, the interim president, warned that politicians are seeking to profit from the violence ahead of the elections. The government has banned former president François Bozizé, who came to power in a coup in 2003 and was overthrown by the Séléka rebels in March 2013, from running again. Nonetheless, people with links to the country’s past instability have declared their plans to run.

SOUTH SUDAN

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

possible until the government addresses the problem of disarmament, demobilisation, reintegration and repatriation (DDRR) of the various Christian, Muslim and other militias that have sprung up during the conflict. The Bangui government and its international partners do not even know how many militia members are to be disarmed. Questions about transitional justice will also have to be answered, as 10 armed groups agreed to a May peace deal that includes provisions for warcrime trials. Analysts also warn that attention must be paid to reconciliation at the grassroots level.

out the country. At the time The Africa Report went to press, the government and rebel forces had yet to agree a ceasefire that would allow the vote to take place. The continued fighting could complicate the registration process, the despatching of electoral material and the voting itself. Despite the presence of the United Nations (UN) and other peacekeepers, morethan90peoplewerekilledinBangui betweenSeptemberandearlyNovember. The threat posed by armed groups goes well beyond the polls. Whichever candidate wins the presidential vote will have a long list of reconstruction priorities. Reconstruction will not be

Besides the DDRR process, the new government has to extend its administration across the country. The government controls about 20% of the national territory, and the UN Development Programme estimates that about three-quarters of local administrative buildings were destroyed during the fighting. Many of the various armed groups are collecting taxes from civilians in the areas where they operate. If the government exerts control over CAR’s territory, that should allow the population to return to work, with agriculture employing a large majority. Due to the disruption of production, about 1.3 million people – of the total population of 4.6 million – require food assistance. Donors have been supplying the government with assistance, but the sums are small in relation to the country’s needs. The International Monetary Fund approved an $11.8m rapid credit facility in September 2015 but also warned that foreign economic support for the government is weak. The rebel control of territory means that it will also take time and investment to restart production of the country’s main natural resources, including gold, diamonds and timber. The Kimberley Process diamond certification scheme is due to allow CAR to begin to sell diamonds again, but campaigners warn that diamonds which finance conflict could enter international markets. ●

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CENTRAL AFRICA

COUNTRY 153 PROFILES

CHAD

No doubts for Déby ➔ The strongman plans to stay on for a fifth presidential term

had is heading for a year of elections in 2016 amidst an economic crisis due to low oil prices and the government’s poor management of the resource boom. The presidential vote is due in April and thelegislativeelectionsthatwereplanned for 2015 – and were delayed because of organisationalproblemswiththebiometric registry – could also be held. PresidentIdrissDébywillnodoubtbea candidate for his fifth term in office, after his government abolished term limits in 2009 and he said it was not possible for him to leave power in August. Despite the opposition’s desire to launch a popular movement for political change and the similarities between Chad and Burkina Faso, there are few signs that the forces are aligned for Chad to repeat the events that led to former president Blaise Compaoré’s downfall in October 2014. TheChadiancivilsocietygroupTrop C’est Trop (Enough is Enough) collapsed into infighting in August, with officials accusing each other of having ulterior motives.

CHAD NIGER

Lake Chad

NIGERIA CAM.

Moundou

400 km

THE AFRICA REPORT

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CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

SOUTH SUDAN

➔ Population: 12.8 million ➔ Population growth: 3% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,010 ➔ Life expectancy: 51.2 ➔ Adult literacy: 40.2% ➔ Inflation: 4.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 184 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $760.5m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -10.4% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 35% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 1990 ➔ GDP growth (%)

5.7 6.9

4.2

13.9

11.7

12.8

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

the government would use new antiterrorism laws to muzzle criticism. The upcoming election is likely to be the last chance for certain ageing oppositionists to try to take power. Yorongar and Saleh Kebzabo of the Union Nationale pour le Développement et le Renouveau will not be able to run again because they will be older than 70, the age limit imposed by the constitution. The Nigeria-based Boko Haram Islamist rebel group represents one of the greatest threats of insecurity for Chad. The fighters launched several attacks on Chadian soil after Déby sent troops to join a regional force to fight the group in

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2015. Rather than fight the armed forces, Boko Haram has employed suicide attacks. But Nigeria is not the only region of concern, and security sources say that the N’djamena regime is watching the lawlessness in southern Libya with increasingly worried eyes. The insecurity caused by Boko Haram has had spillover effects on Chad’s economy. Livestock is the country’s secondlargest source of foreign exchange, but the northern Nigerian market has collapsed due to the instability. Nigeria is also Chad’s principal source of manufactured goods, and the Boko Haram presence in Nigeria and Cameroon has limited activity on key trade routes. BOOM AND BUST

6.9

SEARCH FOR A SOLE OPPONENT

The divided opposition is looking to unite around a single candidate to face Déby, but that may not be enough to unseat the incumbent. In recent years, the country’s opposition parties have not done well at the polls. Unity also may not be guaranteed even though leaders like Fédération, Action pour la République’s Ngarledji Yorongar are calling for an opposition primary. There are stark differences in opinion among political leaders, and the regime is likely to try to encourage the breaking of ranks so that it does not face a sole opponent. The government is not leaving much to chance and has been using the security forces to intimidate opposition chiefs. They expressed worries that

SUDAN

N'DJAMENA

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The government was ill-prepared for the late 2014 drop in oil prices

LIBYA

In 2015, the government had difficulty paying civil service salaries, as oil revenue accounts for 60% of the national budget. Despite the low prices, the country’s oil production was due to rise from 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) in late 2014 to 180,000 bpd before the end of 2015. The country has not saved up a cushion to soften oil’s boom and bust cycles. The country has a low tax base and problems in the collection of customs duties. President Déby sacked his younger brother, director general of customs Salaye Déby, in October to improve the management of the department. The government organised a crisis seminar in October to debate ways to raise more funds and reduce state expenses. The main policies adopted after the conference are swingeing austerity measures for government institutions and a commitment to seek more finance from international markets. The government, however, received a small boost when it achieved the completion point of the Heavily Indebted Poor Country debt relief initiative in early 2015, leading to the forgiveness of about $1.1bn in external debt. The construction industry is due to slow down significantly in 2016 due to security concerns, slowness in government payments to contractors and the scaling down of infrastructure spending. ●

154 COUNTRY PROFILES

CENTRAL AFRICA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF

The clock ticks louder ➔ The electoral calendar is slipping and Kabila has not said he will step down CAM.

➔ With commodity production rising, the drop in prices may not spell disaster

HOLDING ONTO POWER

This strategy is called glissage (slippage), a term that is popularly used in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to describe the president’s unstated desire to stay in power without openly defying the constitution. A spokesman for Kabila’s party said in early November that it could take up to four years to organise all of the required votes.

Kisangani

CONGO GABON

KINSHASA

Atlantic Ocean

Goma

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

UGANDA RWANDA BURUNDI TANZANIA

Lubumbashi ANGOLA

400 km

ZAMBIA

➔ Population: 67.5 million ➔ Population growth: 2.7% ➔ GDP per capita: $478 ➔ Life expectancy: 50 ➔ Adult literacy: 77.3% ➔ Inflation: 1% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 186 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $2.1bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -7.6% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 41% ➔ Key export: Cathodes ➔ Last change of leader: 2001 ➔ GDP growth (%)

8.4

8.5

9.2

sitting on their hands, largely in protest against Kabila’s glissage. Yet, as the government appears to have calculated, the donors’ stance supports glissage by making adherence to the electoral calendar even harder. In July, the DRC jumped from 11 to 26 provinces in a process popularly known in the country as découpage. With the exception of Kinshasa and the three Kivu provinces of Maniema, Sud-Kivu and Nord-Kivu, every other province was spliced into two to four new ones. Remarkably, there was no budget allocation for this exercise. The reform, as was widely forecast, generated chaos at a provincial level as each level of government seeks to hold on to tax revenue. APPOINTING LOYALISTS

7.3

➔ GDP ($bn)

32.7

35.9

39.1

42.1

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

he political class enters 2016 in suspenseoverPresidentJoseph Kabila’s political future and the hectic electoral schedule. Kabila still will not say whether he will make way for another president in December 2016, as the constitution requires, though presidential spokesman Lambert Mende has given the assurance that Kabila will respect the constitution. A series of elections planned for this year and next has complicated matters greatly. In early September, the constitutional court ordered the electoral commission to re-evaluate its calendar, arguing that budgetary and political constraints had made the current timetable impossible to implement. The timetable required provincial and local elections in late October 2015 but no polls were held then. The resulting local councils and provincial assemblies were then set to elect town mayors, provincial governors and national senators between January and March 2016. Presidential and national assembly elections would then follow on 27 November 2016. In recent years, the constitutional court has already amply demonstrated near-perfect alignment with the government’s agenda. If the electoral commission implements this latest ruling, that will continue the trend and all but guarantee there will be no presidential election next November.

SOUTH SUDAN

CAR

Glissage is certainly subtler and so far less costly to life and national stability than the bulldozing strategy employed by Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza in 2015. In fact, if Kabila vacates the presidency on time once his two terms are up, he would be almost the only head of state in Central Africa to do so. The constitutional court has a point when it says that the country is not ready for provincial and local elections. Genuine multiparty local elections have never before been held in the DRC and require preparations and finance that are simply not in place. One reason for the shortage of funds is that Western donors are

One of the results is the near-total non-payment of salaries at the provincial level, including for provincial assembly delegates. The constitutional court wants all new provinces to have governors in place before the provincial elections, but the delegates – all of whom are inherited from the assemblies of the old provinces – have refused to elect them, saying they want their salaries first. A likely alternative would be for the central government to appoint governors on a ‘temporary’ basis until new ones can be elected. In this way, the constitutional court ruling could help the central government to appoint loyalists all over the country. In mid-September, the Union pour la Démocratie et le Progrès Social (UDPS), the country’s largest opposition party, broke off controversial talks in Europe with representatives of Kabila’s government concerning a new inter-party dialogue. There had been much speculation that the talks would lead to a government of national unity. The talks had come close to splitting the UDPS, with those opposed to the negotiations accusing members of the family of party president Etienne Tshisekedi of seeking jobs and salaries. The end of talks might help heal divisions and could also pave the way for closer cooperation between the UDPS and other opposition parties.

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155

CONGO In July 2015, the US government finally replaced its special representative to the Great Lakes Region, appointing Thomas Perriello in place of Russ Feingold. Perriello has continued Feingold’s approach of issuing strong public warnings to the Congolese government to respect the constitution. Several wouldbe presidential challengers to Kabila, including former Katanga Province governor Moïse Katumbi, have been beating a path to Washington to make their case. The US government reckons stability in the DRC is best served by a change of president, but if Kabila can prove otherwise, it is not certain that Washington’s disapproval would harden into anything more serious. From having been an economic basket case just a few short years ago, the DRC today enjoys one of the highest rates of realgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growth in the world. The main driver of growth is mining, so the downturn in commodity prices is causing some worries. TOP COPPER PRODUCER

Despite continued major constraints in power supply, recorded copper output topped 1m tonnes for the first time in 2014, making the DRC the number-one African producer of the metal. The forecast – until recently – was for copper output to top 1m tonnes again this year. That forecast was dealt a major blow by mining giant Glencore’s an-

Number of people suffering acute food insecurity 6.5 million 6.4 million

December 2012 to June 2013

December 2014 to June 2015

SOURCE: INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY PHASE CLASSIFICATION

26tn

Gold production was set to reach new highs in 2015 and continue rising in 2016 nouncement in early September that it would be suspending production at its flagship Kamoto Copper Company for an estimated 18 months (see box). Meanwhile, production at the Chinese and Congolese Sicomines copper and cobalt joint venture – which will help the government to pay for Chinese-funded infrastructure projects – was set to begin in the last months of 2015. Officially recorded industrial gold production reached nearly 20tn in 2014, its highest level in decades, and is forecast to reach 26tn in 2015. Output in 2016 should be even higher. Most of the

growth comes from the Kibali mine in the country’s north-east, which is operated by Randgold Resources. The mine is an open pit, but Randgold is also busy digginganundergroundmine.Randgoldhas gone on record to say it wants to develop more gold mines in the country and is expected to announce a new acquisition by the end of 2015. Tin production has largely recovered from a prolonged dip driven by international concerns about its financing of conflict in the country’s troubled east. The sector’s output for 2015 is forecast at around 9,000tn. This is, however, less than during 2014. The drop appears to be the result of the plummeting tin price, which has discouraged artisanal diggers. Falling commodity prices have slashed mining companies’ earnings, the value of the country’s exports and the government’s tax take from the mining sector. The US dollar value of the country’s exports was 17.2% lower during the first half of 2015 than during the same period of 2014. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) nonetheless predicts that government revenue will rise in 2016 to 14.1% of GDP from an estimated 13.7% in 2015. But it predicts that expenditure will rise even faster, from 15.3% of GDP this year to 16.6% in the next. The IMF says that international aid will cover the difference, but only just, and that the overall fiscal balance will drop from 0.5% of GDP this year to 0% in 2016. ●

Sorry is all that you can say GLENCORE, a Switzerlandbased miner, stunned the authorities in September when it said it is suspending production at Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) for 18 months. KCC was producing around 255,000tn per year, and the loss of this production will be a major blow to export earnings and tax revenue. To soften the impact, Glencore said THE AFRICA REPORT

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it will continue with a planned $880m modernisation project and will not make mineworkers redundant. The project, however, will require KCC to borrow heavily from Glencore, while the lack of production will mean there are no funds with which to pay it back. As a result, KCC will remain indebted to Glencore and it will be many more years before

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the government derives the full benefit of its 20% holding via state-owned Gécamines. The good news for other miners is that with KCC out of action, there should be more electricity available. This should boost output, particularly at Tenke Fungurume (TFM), which currently operates way below capacity due to the electricity deficit. TFM is situated near

Kolwezi, which since July has been the capital of the new province of Lualaba and home to an estimated 85% of the DRC’s copper production. It is destined to be the richest province. Mining companies see an advantage in being free of the demands of the old Katanga Province but fear that they will be expected to finance the needs and desires of the new administration. ●

156 COUNTRY PROFILES

CENTRAL AFRICA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

Obiang stays on ➔ Obiang will run for the presidency again in 2016 and win another term

blocks opposition websites and social media platforms. The new law could give it more legal authority to block what it deems to be abuse of the internet, and thus, critics argue, clamp down even more on the freedom of expression. Due to the recent drop in oil prices, the government has had to reduce its ambitions massively. On average, economic growth has been negative over the past few years due to declines in hydrocarbon production. The government has used oil revenue to finance a large infrastructure build-out, but it has not led to many positive spillovers and the government is now focused on cutting expenditure.

CAMEROON

MALABO BIOKO Bata Atlantic Ocean

midst dire economic news due to the drop in oil prices, Equatorial Guinea will head to the polls in 2016. At the November elections that will end the first seven-year term of 73-year-old PresidentTeodoroObiangNguemaMbasogo, the incumbent is due to run again and win his last permitted mandate. The power that incumbency grants under the current Equatorial Guinean political system means that the opposition has little chance of challenging the ruling Partido Democrático de Guinea Ecuatorial in the elections. The 36-year-old regime is autocratic and runs a closed-off political system. Obiang launched a national dialogue in November 2014 to deepen democracy in the country and to liberalise the procedures for legalising political parties. Most of the country’s major parties – those based in Equatorial Guinea and those in exile – boycotted the talks, saying that the government was not serious about changing its ways. Since then, a ruling party official accused Andrés Esono of the Convergencia para la Democracia Social of trying to import and spread the Ebolavirustodestabilisethegovernment. Any opening up of the system since the national dialogue has been limited. The government legalised Avelino Mocache’s Unión de Centro Derecha in August 2015, raising the number of parties in the country to 14. GROOMED FOR SUCCESSION

How to stop the economy’s slide – the International Monetary Fund predicts the economy will contract in both 2015 and 2016 – and the succession will be the main topics of political debate in 2016.PresidentialsonTeodoro‘Teodorín’ Nguema Obiang represented his father at the opening of the United Nations

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

GABON 50 km

➔ Population: 0.8 million ➔ Population growth: 2.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $12,540 ➔ Life expectancy: 53.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 95.3% ➔ Inflation: 3.5% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 144 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $1.9bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -8.7% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 67% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 1979 ➔ GDP growth (%)

-6.5

-0.3

-10.2

-0.8

➔ GDP ($bn)

17.1

15.5

2013

2014

SNUBBING OIL COMPANIES

10.2

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Faced with declining production the government is scrambling for solutions

General Assembly in September 2015 and has been assuming more responsibility on the security front, adding support to claims that he is the most likely successor. However, the ruling party studiously remains silent on the issue of a political transition. On other fronts, the government is trying to improve the delivery of public services. The authorities have a target of computerising all government institutions by the end of next year through a programme led by prime minister Vicente Ehate Tomi. The government is also working on a new law about the treatment of internet data. It already

Obiang developed the Horizon 2020 plan to diversify the oil-based economy, but investors seem little interested in sectors outside of oil and gas. And even on that front, the Malabo administration seems to be getting more conflictual in its relations with international companies. In November, the government announced that it will not renew ExxonMobil’s contract for the Zafiro field, it will not approve Hess’s proposed asset sale and it will block Noble Energy’s development of the Carla and Diega discoveries because the company has been too slow. These moves are likely to dampen enthusiasm for offshore exploration there. The decision affecting Noble may also hurt the government’s plans to set up a petrochemicals facility in Riaba. Other oil and gas-based investments are going ahead, however. In October, the government signed a deal for the construction of petroleum products storage units at the Bioko Oil Terminal with South Africa’s SacOil, Nigeria’s Taleveras Group and Switzerland’s Gunvor. Africa-focused Ophir will make a decision about developing Africa’s first floating liquefiednatural-gas plant in 2016 and could begin production by 2019. The government says it has hopes of expanding the tourism sector, but Equatorial Guinea remains one of the least-visited countries on the continent. ●

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CENTRAL AFRICA

COUNTRY 157 PROFILES

GABON

Elections under an oily shadow ➔ The low oil price has reduced the funds available for diversification

EQUATORIAL GUINEA Atlantic Ocean

GABON

HIGH-PROFILE CONFLICTS

For his part, Bongo has been facing high-level defections from the Parti Démocratique Gabonais (PDG), including former prime minister JeanFrançois Ntoutoume Emane in October. In 2015, former oil minister Alexandre Barro Chambrier attempted to form the Héritage et Modernité wing of the PDG to criticise a lack of democracy in the party and problems of governance. Bongo and his allies rapidly quashed the move. The 2016 campaign is likely to be intense, especially as the late 2014 drop in the oil price has slowed economic growth and provoked another boombust cycle that Bongo had promised to limit through economic diversification. THE AFRICA REPORT

LIBREVILLE Port-Gentil

uilding and maintaining unity will be the biggest challenges for both the opposition and the ruling party of President Ali Bongo Ondimba in the year ahead. Presidential elections are planned for the end of 2016 and both sides have been plagued by infighting. Since the vote is just a single round and thisislikelytohelptheincumbent,former AfricanUnionCommissionchairmanJean Ping has been trying to unite a disparate opposition. Ping has not been welcomed with open arms by the Union Nationale (UN) opposition party, which had been ledbythelateAndréMbaObame.Itseems unlikely that the many small opposition partiesthatlackstronggrassrootsorganisationswillagreeonajointcandidate.There isapossibilitythatsomeoppositionparties could boycott the vote, as they struggled to work with the government in late 2015 onreformstotheelectoralregister.Bodies such as the UN have called for a national conference to deepen democracy in the country, arguing that little has changed since the end of single-party rule.

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August as part of a corruption investigation and was later released. The low oil price has hurt the national budget. The government cut the draft 2016 budget by about 1% from the previous year to 2.6trn CFA francs. The 2015 budget had been reduced by about 12% due to lower revenue from oil exports. Amidst these financial difficulties and with an election looming, the government implemented a new wage system for the civil service and boosted salaries by an average of 30% in mid-2015. However, it did decide in January 2015 to end expensive petrol subsidies.

CAMEROON

100 km

Franceville

CONGO

➔ Population: 1.7 million ➔ Population growth: 2.4% ➔ GDP per capita: $8,580 ➔ Life expectancy: 63.5 ➔ Adult literacy: 83.2% ➔ Inflation: 0.6% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 112 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $972.9m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -7% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 214% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 2009 ➔ GDP growth (%)

4.3

5.6

3.5

MINING ACTIVITY STALLS

4.9

➔ GDP ($bn)

17.6

18.2

2013

2014

13.8

14.2

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The single-round presidential poll in 2016 favours President Bongo

Years of high oil prices since Bongo came to power in 2009 did not lead to a major reduction in poverty levels or unemployment. In 2015, the government had some high-profile conflicts with contractors over its inability to pay, leading several infrastructure projects to be frozen. While the PDG points to the growth of the special economic zone at Nkok, the opposition criticises Bongo for failing to deliver on his promise to build 5,000 new housing units each year. Bongo also promised reforms to implement good governance standards, but his cabinet director, Maixent Accrombessi, was arrested in France in

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The 2014/2015 downturn in commodity prices hurt attempts to diversify the economy. With the low price of iron ore, the government has not been able to attract investors for the mine at Belinga, which will require large investments in an extension of a railway line and the construction of a new port. While French company Eramet inaugurated a new metallurgical complex in Moanda in June 2015, it later announced that it was freezing investment in other projects. The drop in the price of oil also slowed exploration activity in Gabon. The finance ministry predicted an 8% drop in production in 2015. The IMF estimates that on current trends, oil production will fall to a daily average of about 190,000 barrels by 2020. It is likely to be a while before companies drill more wells to determine if Gabon’s pre-salt assets are similar to the rich ones found across the Atlantic in Brazil. Agriculture is one area that is attracting more attention from the government. SingaporeanagribusinesscompanyOlam is going ahead with its large rubber and oil palm plantations. The government also launched the Gabon des Réalisations Agricoles et des Initiatives des Nationaux Engagés project in early 2015 to support agricultural cooperatives and improve procedures for gaining access to land for plantations. Over the next five years, it will seek to create 20,000 jobs and develop 200,000ha for agricultural projects. ●

158 COUNTRY PROFILES

CENTRAL AFRICA

REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Plus ça change ➔ President Sassou Nguesso is set to win a third consecutive term

200 km

CAMEROON

➔ Despite low oil prices, economic growth is set to pick up next year

CHANGING TACTICS

Yet while the identity of the presidential victor seems in little doubt, the answers to other questions are much less clear. The conduct of the election itself will be a measure of the extent to which the regime feels it has to adjust to the changing political climate in Africa in this second decade of the 21st century. In the 2009 election, most opposition challengers were intimidated out of standing or were

GABON Atlantic Ocean

REPUBLIC OF CONGO

BRAZZAVILLE

Pointe-Noire

DEMOCRATIC REP. OF CONGO

CABINDA (Angola)

➔ Population: 4.4 million ➔ Population growth: 2.6% ➔ GDP per capita: $2,030 ➔ Life expectancy: 58.8 ➔ Adult literacy: 79.3% ➔ Inflation: 0.9% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 140 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $5.5bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -15.2% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 104% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 1997 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.3

6.8

A FAMILY AFFAIR

6.5

8.9

9.8

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

13.5

2013

2014

*Estimation Oct. 2015

he Republic of Congo’s voters will face a fresh presidential election in July 2016, probably conducted under a new constitution – but they will almost certainly end up with the same head of state. Denis Sassou Nguesso has not rushed to reveal his intentions and may not formally announce his candidacy until just a few months before the polling stations open, but few Congolese doubt his determination to seek another term. He will enter the campaign as the overwhelming favourite, and the possibility of an opposition victory is very remote. It has been clear since 2014 that Sassou Nguesso and his inner coterie regarded the limit of two consecutive seven-year terms imposed by the 2002 constitution as disposable, a barrier that could easily be removed through a popular referendum astutely managed to deliver the required outcome in October 2015. Clément Miérassa of the opposition Front Républicain pour le Respect de l’Ordre Constitutionnel et l’Alternance Démocratique fulminated against this “constitutional coup”. However, the international community, which has appreciated Sassou Nguesso’s assistance in managing the crisis in the Central African Republic, made no fuss and seems equally unlikely to do so when the election takes place in 2016.

Kolélas, the minister of the civil service and state reform, objected to the scrapping of term limits – and, predictably, were sacked as a result in August. Their return to the opposition should help to re-energise their parties, the Union Panafricaine pour la Démocratie Sociale and the Mouvement Congolais pour la Démocratie et el Développement, respectively. Still, the opposition’s greatest drawback may be the absence, at least so far, of a clearly crystallising and charismatic face who can mobilise mass opinion.

CAR

excluded from the vote at the last minute based on implausible technicalities. Next time around, Sassou Nguesso may conclude that it would make diplomatic sense to benefit from a less controversial electoral endorsement, just as he has already opted to balance the abolition of term limits with a cut in the length of the presidential term. It is not just the regime that faces questions in 2016. Arguably the test is tougher for the opposition. It will be challenged to develop significant popular momentum. Some senior figures have judged that now may be the moment: Claudine Munari, the trade minister, and Guy Brice Parfait

Legislative elections are also due to take place in mid-2016 and an interesting sub-plot concerns the future role of Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso, the president’s son. Promoted to the executive of the ruling Parti Congolais du Travail (PCT) in 2011, he is also the member of parliament for Sassou Nguesso’s home constituency, Oyo, in the centre-north. But managing the economic side of government would not be an enviable inheritance, whoever takes this on, at a time of low oil prices. President Sassou Nguesso has attempted to catch up on the development backlog accumulated through almost two decades of political instability with a lavish wave of infrastructure spending, helped by Chinese credit. That may not be sustainable in the more constrained circumstances that appear to lie ahead. Despite the reduced oil price, however, Brazzaville and the International Monetary Fund tentatively forecast strong economic growth in 2016. But there are serious internal imbalances that could limit growth: the incidence of poverty in rural areas is more than 70% and less than half that in cities and towns. Thegovernmenthasneglectedgrassroots rural development programmes at the heart of long-term poverty reduction in sub-Saharan countries. Recent heavy investment in infrastructure will help to strengthen regional economic activity and open up opportunities for resource investors. But there is still a large backlog of long-term basic development to catch up on. ●

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CENTRAL AFRICA

COUNTRY 159 PROFILES

SÃO TOMÉ E PRÍNCIPE

Depending on the donors PRINCIPE

➔ The oil sector continues to disappoint and struggles to attract investors

SÃO TOMÉ

SÃO TOMÉ E PRÍNCIPE

he country’s politicians are getting ready for presidential elections in 2016. While previous coalition governments have been unstable, Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada – whose Acção Democrática Independente (ADI) won an absolute majority in the legislative elections of October 2014 – has had few problems in power. Many had expected that he would be in conflict with President Manuel Pinto da Costa of the Movimento de Libertação de São Tomé e Príncipe- Partido Social Democrata (MLSTP-PSD), but Pinto da Costa has only vetoed one bill backed by the ADI. The relationship of Trovoada and Pinto da Costa is likely to become more strained ahead of the presidential elections, as they are currently the strongest contenders. For the moment, neither has declared his candidacy. The presidential office is more prestigious than the prime ministership, although under the semi-presidential system, the president has a largely representative function. Pinto da Costa, who is 78, may not seek a second term, and the MLSTP-PSD is also due to pick a new leader before the end of the year. The government continues to have problems financing the national budget and attracting foreign investment. It is working on plans to introduce a valueaddedtaxin2017inordertoraiserevenue. CHINESE PROJECT HALTED

The opening of a Chinese trade mission in late 2013 has not brought the expected deals. One of the first decisions of the Trovoada government after assuming office in November 2014 was the cancellation of the agreement on the construction of a large urbanisation project called Expo Gongá by the Guangxi Hydroelectric Construction THE AFRICA REPORT

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SÃO TOMÉ Atlantic Ocean

5 km

➔ Population: 0.2 million ➔ Population growth: 2.6% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,605 ➔ Life expectancy: 66.3 ➔ Adult literacy: 74.9% ➔ Inflation: 5.8% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 142 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $19.9m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -12.4% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 64% ➔ Key export: Cocoa beans ➔ Last change of leader: 2011 ➔ GDP growth (%)

4.5

➔ GDP ($bn)

0.3

2013

2014

2015*

5.2

0.4 2016*

Bureau. In October 2015, the government finally signed a memorandum of understanding with China Harbour Engineering for the construction of the deep-sea container port at Fernão Dias. In October, the government held an international donor and investment conference to try to raise the $610m needed to build the port and expand the international airport. For years, tourism has outranked cocoa as the archipelago’s principal source of foreign exchange. Cocoa remains the country’s chief export, but its performance has been disappointing. In the first half of 2015, cocoa exports dropped by

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44.4% to 803tn. Meanwhile, in 2014, tourism generated revenue of $57.3m, or 17% of gross domestic product, which was more than six times the revenue from cocoa exports in that year. The recent growth in tourist arrivals has been partly due to the replacement of TAP Air’s weekly non-stop flight from Lisbon by three weekly flights with a stopover in Accra, in mid-2014. In an attempt to further boost tourism, in August 2015 the Trovoada administration abolished visa requirements for stays of less than 15 days for US and European Union nationals. SLUGGISH DEVELOPMENT PACE

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The government is trying to raise more revenue for infrastructure projects

As expected, Block 1 of the Joint Development Zone (JDZ) with Nigeria has not started production by September 2015, as the Joint Development Authority (JDA) had suggested in March 2014. The JDA had sought to silence fierce Nigerian critics due to consecutive disinvestments from the zone. However, in June 2015, the JDA announced the signature of a new production-sharing contract for Block 1 with two Nigerian companies, Equator Hydrocarbons and PAPIS Energy Solutions (35%) to replace Total and Addax, which abandoned the block in 2013. Dangote Energy kept its original 9% interest awarded in 2004. The JDA insists that the deployment of non-conventional technology can speed up development activities on the block, but that seems rather unlikely. Meanwhile, JDZ blocks 2, 3 and 4 – abandoned by the original licence-holders in 2012 – have remained without investors. Given the currently low oil price, any exploration activity in the country´s exclusive economic zone is not likely to happen either. In late 2015, Equatorial Guinea’s government proposed setting up its own joint oil projects with the government of São Tomé. The country could have a future as a palm oil producer. The Belgian-owned local company Agripalma has planted more than 1,900ha with oil plam trees. It predicts that it will produce 10,000tn of palm oil in 2016. ●

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COUNTRY PROFILES

161

WEST AFRICA CONTENTS 162 PEOPLE TO WATCH 164 BENIN 165 BURKINA FASO

LIBYA

166 CABO VERDE

ALGERIA

167 COTE D’IVOIRE 169 GAMBIA

MALI

MAURITANIA

170 GHANA

NIGER

Timbuktu DAKAR

172 GUINEA

Gao

SENEGAL

BANJUL

Mopti

GAMBIA

BISSAU

BAMAKO

GUINEABISSAU

CONAKRY FREETOWN

CABO VERDE

NIAMEY

Maiduguri

BENIN CÔTE D'IVOIRE

SIERRA LEONE

MONROVIA

YAMOUSSOUKRO

LIBERIA

PRAIA

TOGO GHANA

PORTOLOMÉ NOVO

ACCRA

Abidjan

175 MALI

NIGERIA

176 NIGER

ABUJA

PortHarcourt

173 GUINEA-BISSAU 174 LIBERIA

OUAGADOUGOU

BURKINA FASO

GUINEA

CHAD

Zinder

177 NIGERIA CAR

179 SENEGAL

CAMEROON

180 SIERRA LEONE

Atlantic Ocean

300 km

181 TOGO

The maximum level of the Economic Community of West African States Common External Tariff, implemented in January 2015

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FEBRUARY Niger & Benin Presidential elections MARCH Côte d’Ivoire Africa CEO Forum MAY-JUNE Senegal Dak’Art Biennale NOVEMBER Gambia Presidential election DECEMBER Ghana Presidential election WEST AFRICA 2015 GDP (% of regional total) Nigeria

77.8% TOTAL

$633.6bn

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0.1% Gambia 0.2% Guinea-Bissau 0.3% Cabo Verde 0.3% Liberia 0.7% Sierra Leone 0.7% Togo 1.1% Niger 1.1% Guinea 1.2% Benin 1.7% Mali 1.8% Burkina Faso 2.2% Senegal 4.9% Côte d’Ivoire 5.9% Ghana

WEST AFRICA POPULATION (millions) 789.8 510.6 358.6

2016

2030

2050

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

35%

CALENDAR 2016

162 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

PEOPLE TO WATCH CÔTE D’IVOIRE

Thierry Tanoh Ouattara’s right-hand man SENEGAL

Thierry Tanoh, 53, was named deputy general secretary of President Alassane Ouattara’s administration in 2014. Since taking office, he has been assigned to major cases, including a border dispute with Ghana. Early in 2015, he was also in London with the finance minister for the raising of a $1bn eurobond. Meanwhile, Tanoh is involved in a long lawsuit against his former employer, Ecobank, for defamation and wrongful dismissal.

Awa Marie Coll Seck

NIGERIA

Okechukwu ‘Okey’ Enelamah A builder for Nigeria’s industrial networks A surprise and late addition to President Muhammadu Buhari’s list of ministers, Enelamah is a renaissance man par excellence. That is not to say that he works for Renaissance Capital; he has his own private equity company, African Capital Alliance, which he co-founded after working at Goldman Sachs and Zephyr Capital in South Africa. His dealmaking is legendary, with MTN Nigeria one of the feathers in his cap. And on top of his financial expertise, he is a medical doctor and a pastor in his local church. He was tapped up by vice-president Yemi Osinbajo, with whom he shares an accounting qualification. Expect a rigorous, orthodox, principled and private-sector-oriented minister for industry, trade and investment going forward.

The next leader of the World Health Organisation could come from Africa. Current director general Margaret Chan’s mandate ends in 2017 and Senegal’s health minister Awa Marie Coll Seck is considering a run for this top United Nations (UN) position that no African has ever held. She has the support of her government and is looking to build a bigger backing from her African counterparts. Seck, 63, has been health minister since 2012 and is the third-highestranking official in the government. In 2014, she boosted her profile through her success in handling Ebola, which was contained to only a single case in her country. She became Senegal’s first female associate professor of medicine in 1984 and specialises in infectious diseases. She served as a director for the UN Programme for HIV/ AIDS and is lobbying for the increased use of private funds for the public health systems. THE AFRICA REPORT

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SAAD

ACA

A doctor for the continent

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163

BENIN

Patrice Talon Boni Yayi’s chief rival

FH COMMUNICATIONS BUREAU

Businessman Patrice Talon, who President Thomas Boni Yayi accused of trying to poison him, before pardoning him, argues that he has a strong chance of becoming president in the February 2016 elections despite lacking a grassroots base. Talon won major contracts for the privatisation of cotton-ginning plants, but is now in international arbitration because the government revoked them. Talon finally returned to Benin from exile in October 2015 and was crafting an electoral strategy as The Africa Report went to press.

NIGERIA

Amy Jadesimi From banker to oil services entrepreneur Like the other Nigerian on these pages, Amy Jadesimi is a medical doctor and has worked for Goldman Sachs. She worked at Brait Private Equity before joining her father at the Lagos Deep Offshore Logistics Base, a Nigerian-owned platform to serve the oil sector in an attempt to keep some of the billions of dollars in the oil industry within Nigeria’s borders. The result is a growing ‘industrial village’ emerging from scratch on a peninsula at the point of entry to Lagos harbour. It will see Total Upstream Nigeria as its first customer. THE AFRICA REPORT

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GHANA

Charlotte Osei Electoral umpire When she became head of Ghana’s electoral commission in June 2015, Charlotte Osei had a huge task in front of her. The commission is opposing a campaign for reforms following the Supreme Court petition implicating it in irregularities that occurred during the 2012 election. Already branded a National Democratic Congress sympathiser by some opposition members, Osei must ensure that the commission will not be in the firing line again amid presidential and parliamentary elections at the end of 2016.

164 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

BENIN

Bye bye Boni ➔ There are no clear frontrunners for the early 2016 presidential election

BENIN

➔ New infrastructure projects should strengthen Benin’s role as a trading hub

LEGAL CONFLICTS

A new era of leaders should emerge from the elections, with, for example, the Parti du Renouveau Démocratique’s Adrien Houngbédji – who became the president of the national assembly this year – having reached the age where he can no longer run for the presidency. Houngbédji has promised to block Boni Yayi’s attempts to change the constitution, as the opposition had worried he

Parakou TOGO NIGERIA

GHANA PORTO NOVO Cotonou

150 km

Gulf of Guinea

➔ Population: 10.3 million ➔ Population growth: 2.7% ➔ GDP per capita: $708 ➔ Life expectancy: 59.3 ➔ Adult literacy: 38.5% ➔ Inflation: 0.5% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 165 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $377.4m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -9.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 93% ➔ Key export: Cotton ➔ Last change of leader: 2006 ➔ GDP growth (%)

5.6

5.4

5.5

RAIL LINK, COTTON PRODUCTION

5.3

➔ GDP ($bn)

8.3

8.7

7.7

8.3

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

he presidential elections planned for 28 February and 13 March will set the tone for the year ahead in Benin. President Thomas Boni Yayi will be concentrating on polishing his image and finishing off key infrastructure projects until then as he tries to shape the succession and plans for his career as a pastor. The outcome of the election is uncertain, as no party won a majority in the 2015 legislative elections. The latest shifts in political power suggest that the competition for the presidency is wide open. The Forces Cauris pour un Bénin Emergent (FCBE), an alliance formed to support President Boni Yayi in 2006, took just 33 out of 83 seats in the April 2015 national assembly elections. The opposition is extremely fragmented, and the FCBE could weaken even further in the run-up to the 2016 vote if more leaders abandon it. Among those with their eyes on the presidency, François Abiola and Komi Koutché are campaigning to continue Boni Yayi’s legacy – despite the governance issues that have caused problems with donor governments. Potential opposition candidates and independents like Patrice Talon, EmmanuelGolou,EricHoundété,Robert Gbian and Abdoulaye Bio Tchané are calling for reform and change.

port infrastructure and the diversification and strengthening of the country’s agricultural and agribusiness sectors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns, however, that new infrastructure will not lead to a structural change in the economy if there are not also improvements to the financial sector and to the business environment for the private sector. Benin’s banks have cut back on their lending to the private sector due to the high level of bad loans on their books since about 2009. The banks have started to make provisions for the nonperforming loans, but more reform is needed to strengthen the industry.

BURKINA FASO

would try to remove the limit on the number of presidential terms. No matter who wins there are several problems that will need attention: the Sodéco cotton and import supervision legal conflicts that pit the state against Talon, who has been involved in a longstanding conflict with Boni Yayi; the case of the failed financial services company ICC Services; and the contract for an international railroad, which is being debated at the Cour Commune de Justice of the Organisation pour l’Harmonisation en Afrique du Droit des Affaires. The government’s 2016 budget focuses on the strengthening of energy and trans-

The IMF’s other criticisms focused on the government’s ability to execute the budget effectively and to monitor the quality of the infrastructure being built. For example, Lionel Zinsou, the prime minister, is backing a programme involving the roll-out of small-scale solar panel projects and mini dams throughout the country because about 75% of the population lacks access to electricity. French firm Bolloré is planning to invest $1.1bn in a railway line that will link Benin and Niger. It is part of a much larger 2,800km network that Bolloré is developing to link Benin to Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire. Agriculture remains one of the economy’s most important sectors and national cotton production has continued to rise since the 2010/2011 season. The government set an ambitious target of 500,000tn for the 2015/2016 season. Farmers produced 393,000tn in 2014/2015, close to the 2004/2005 record. The government expects less donor support next year until it can convince its partners it is doing enough to fight corruption. In August, a group of FCBE parliamentarians and opposition allies blockedtheremovalofformerwaterminister Barthélémy Kassa’s immunity from prosecution. Investigations suggested Kassa was involved in the embezzlement of 8bn CFA francs ($13m) for sanitation projects backed by the Netherlands. ●

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WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY 165 PROFILES

BURKINA FASO

The transition’s unfinished business ➔ Genetically modified cotton is losing its popularity in the country

MALI NIGER

➔ The new government will decide what to do with with troops of the RSP

The new administration will have a huge role to play in determining whether the wishes of the October 2014 revolutionaries – who swept President Blaise Compaoré from power with calls for a stronger democracy and fairer society – will be met. Transitional President Michel Kafando’s first promise in office was to re-open the investigation into the 1987 assassination of former president Thomas Sankara. While much ofthepopulationapplaudedthedecision, it is full of pitfalls. The case is linked to Compaoré and implicates a number of regime barons still in power. If members of the military are targeted in the case, it could lead to instability in the ranks. The transitional authorities also promised to look into another troubled legal case, that of murdered journalist Norbert Zongo.Apreviousindependentinvestigation suggested that there are six people of •

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GHANA

•

BENIN TOGO

CÔTE-D'IVOIRE

100 km

➔ Population: 16.9 million ➔ Population growth: 2.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $631 ➔ Life expectancy: 56.3 ➔ Adult literacy: 36% ➔ Inflation: 0.7% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 181 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $341.9m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -7.9% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 66% ➔ Key export: Cotton ➔ Last change of leader: 2015 ➔ GDP growth (%)

6.6

KAFANDO’S PROMISES

THE AFRICA REPORT

BUR KINA FA S O Bobo-Dioulasso

ECONOMIC REFORMS

➔ GDP ($bn)

12.2

12.5

11.3

12.2

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

s The Africa Report went to press,BurkinaFasowasdueto hold its first round of presidential and legislative elections on 29 November, with 15 candidates in the running to lead the executive branch and few frontrunners. There were two candidates with strong followings leading up to the vote: Zéphirin Diabré, the leader of the Union pour le Progrès et le Changement a former commerce minister; and Mouvement du Peuple pour le Progrès president and former prime minister Roch Marc Christian Kaboré. Despite the late 2015 coup attempt, it seemed that the transitional authorities were on track to complete the main goal of handing over to an elected government. However, the transitional government has started many other projects that they have left uncompleted and will hand over to the new government.

OUAGADOUGOU

interest to the case, all of them members of the Régiment de Sécurité Présidentielle (RSP). General Gilbert Diendéré, who led September 2015’s attempted coup, is now in jail and could be called to testify if proceedings go ahead. Kafando had at first sought to dissolve the RSP after the Economic Community of West African States’ intervention to overturn Diendéré’s coup plot. However, Kafando backed down due to the instability that it could cause. The new team in Ouagadougou will be faced with the task of finding a solution for the 1,200-man RSP, which has been a threat to the cohesion of the armed forces.

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In 2016, the government will also have to handle the collective case against the Compaoré government at the Haute Cour de Justice. Compaoré himself is charged with high treason. The trial will have a diplomatic element too, as Compaoré is currently in exile in Côte d’Ivoire. The new government will also pick up where the transition left off on the debate about a constitution for Burkina Faso’s proposed Fifth Republic. The Conseil National de la Transition had been working on a draft since July 2015, but the Commission de Réconciliation Nationale et des Réformes developed its own proposal. The goal of both of them is to make sure that a president cannot amass as much power as Compaoré did. Under the transition, unions and civil society groups made many demands for reforms and economic improvements that went unanswered, leading to strikes and sit-ins. The government has been implementing reforms of state-owned companies and cutting the civil service wage bill to improve the economy. The International Monetary Fund expects growth to pick up and investors to begin to return after the transition is completed. Gold is among Burkina Faso’s top exports. Although the government predicted in 2014 that production would hit 40tn in 2016, it is likely to miss the mark due to political instability and the recent drop in the price of gold. Nonetheless, True Gold expects its first gold from the Karma mine in early 2016, as does Gryphon Minerals at Banfora. Gold took the top spot from cotton, the production of which has been rising over the past few years. The government has raised the price for the 2015/2016 season to 235 francs CFA ($0.38)/kg and expects production to rise 90,000tn to reach 800,000tn. For the past few years, farmers have been shunning genetically modified cotton seed because it is seen as producing low-quality fibres. In this season the percentage of land covered with modified seed is expected to drop from 73% to 55%. ●

166 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

CABO VERDE

A busy year at the polls ➔ With a slow-growing economy, the MpD rates its chances for 2016’s votes WI

➔ Tourist numbers are on the rise after a slowdown caused by Ebola in West Africa

STREET PROTESTS

The tax rise and frozen salaries fuelled a period of social protest, with strikes in various sectors and street. Teachers, law enforcement and customs and tax officials were some of the groups that expressed dissatisfaction with their prospects in 2015. The highest point of the street protests coincided with the approval of a bill to increase the salaries for holders of public office in March. Thousands of citizens criticised the proposal on the streets and in social media. Under

ISLES Atlantic Ocean ISLES ARD

PRAÏA

50 km

➔ Population: 0.5 million ➔ Population growth: 0.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $3,127 ➔ Life expectancy: 75.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 87.6% ➔ Inflation: 1% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 123 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $78.1m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -9.7% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 100% ➔ Key export: Vessels ➔ Last change of leader: 2011 ➔ GDP growth (%)

1.8

ATTRACTING MORE INVESTMENT

3.5

3.7

➔ GDP ($bn)

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.7

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

olitical parties are preparing for uncommonly busy months, with three trips to the polls for parliamentary, municipal and presidential elections in 2016. After 15 years in office, Prime Minister José Maria Neves will leave the political scene in 2016. The Partido Africano da Independência de Cabo Verde (PAICV) party is now in the hands of young and ambitious politician Janira Hopffer Almada. Ulisses Correia e Silva, president of the Movimento para a Democracia (MpD), is campaigning to become the next prime minister on a platform that promises to boost employment and fight poverty. He argues that the PAICV government has not improved the economy and that it is weak on corruption. The MpD hammered the government in late 2015 on environment minister Antero Veiga’s opaque management of the Fundo do Ambiente, arguing that the government party often uses state funds to boost its electoral prospects. The government has been searching for ways to boost the economy. In early 2015, it announced a new income tax code, increasing tax rates to individuals as well as to companies. For workers, this means that several subsidies are now taxed, which decreases their income.

companies. Despite the problems with state-run companies, the government plans to set up a new parastatal to develop renewable energy projects that will be called Electra Renováveis. Tourism is the country’s most important sector and it accounts for 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Instituto Nacional de Estatística. Despite growth concerns in Europe and a drop in visits due to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, tourist arrivals rose by 2% to more than 278,000 in the first six months of 2015.

CABO VERDE

an uncommon pressure, President Jorge CarlosFonsecathreatenedtousehisveto. The proposal quickly disappeared from the political agenda. Another issue dividing the parties is the uncertain future of the national airliner TACV. The company is facing renewed financial difficulties, and the government has been working on its privatisation for the past six years. The government has backed new loans for the company and allowed the social security system to invest in the carrier. In a move to improve the airline and the national water and electricity companies, the government has signed contracts with management

Investors are bankrolling a series of new tourism projects. The Llana Beach Hotel and Spa is due to open in 2016. One of the largest ongoing developments is the Chinese-backed Cape Verde Integrated Resort and Casino on the island of Santa Maria. It is estimated to cost €200m ($214.8m) and attracted protestors in 2015 who said that the casino will bring prostitution and other illicit activities to the area. To improve the management of the tourism sector and attract more investment, the government launched the Agência do Turismo e Investimento de Cabo Verde in September 2015. Prime Minister Neves’s government has promised to fight poverty, but its capacity is limited. Public debt increased significantly to 112% of GDP in 2014, according to the central bank. The International Monetary Fund says that most of the debt is concessional and does not represent a threat of debt distress. Nonetheless, it is recommending that the government cut down on spending and reduce the amount of money that it borrows. Diversifying the economy and promoting the capacity of the private sector remain two important challenges. The central bank lowered interest rates from 3.75% to 3.5% in February in order to fight unemployment and encourage lending to businesses. Business leaders said that the policy was not enough and that more needs to be done to address structural problems in the economy. ●

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WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY 167 PROFILES

COTE D’IVOIRE

Ouattara on cloud nine ➔ The opposition performed poorly in the October 2015 presidential election GUINEA

MALI

➔ The government is spending on new infrastructure and agriculture is booming

HIGH CAPACITY URBAN TRAIN

In June 2015, the government signed a concession deal with Bouygues and Hyundai Rotem to build and operate the first 37.5km section of an urban rail line going from the north to the south of Abidjan. The works will cost an estimated €1bn ($1.1bn) and will start in 2017. In 2015, the West African government also THE AFRICA REPORT

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CÔTE D'IVOIRE

LIBERIA

GHANA

Bouaké YAMOUSSOUKRO Abidjan Gulf of Guinea

200 km

➔ Population: 20.3 million ➔ Population growth: 2.3% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,318 ➔ Life expectancy: 50.7 ➔ Adult literacy: 43.1% ➔ Inflation: 1.6% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 171 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $462m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -1% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 95% ➔ Key export: Cocoa beans ➔ Last change of leader: 2010 ➔ GDP growth (%)

7.9

8.2

31.1

33.7

31.3

34.3

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

7.6

8.7 ➔ GDP ($bn)

picked China Harbour Engineering to expand Abidjan’s port. The authorities expect investments to reach 18.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 – up from 13.7% in 2012 – and 21.1% in 2017. Private investment is also increasing. Investors were initially cautious in the aftermath of the 2010-2011 post-election crisis, but are more active now thanks to improvements to the business climate and security. In 2014, private investment reached 968bn CFA francs ($1.6bn), an increase of 28% on 2013. A total of 6,487 businesses were created in 2014, compared with 2,775 in 2013. From 2012 to 2015, Côte d’Ivoire rose 30 spots in

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the World Bank’s Doing Business index. However, it still ranks 147th out of 189 countries. Despite improvements, many investors still complain about the high level of corruption. Targeting the growing middle class, many foreign companies have set up branches in Côte d’Ivoire in the past few years. French retailer Carrefour has partneredwithCFAOandwasduetoopen its first store in Africa in Abidjan late in 2015. Heineken and CFAO are also working together and launched the construction of a €150m brewery in September. In the banking sector, Johannesburg-based Standard Bank set up a representative office in 2013 and is seeking to obtain a bankinglicencefor early2016.Germany’s Commerzbank is also planning to open a branch in the country. BOOSTS TO PRODUCTION

*Estimation Oct. 2015

s Alassane Ouattara began his second term as president in December – after winning 83.7% of the October presidential vote – the prospects for Côte d’Ivoire’s economy were still very strong. There is continued high growth and massive public investment that has already begun to transform the country. Many indicators show the population is starting to benefit from the growth, even though Ivorians are still expecting more from their government. Public investment drove the country’s average economic growth of about 9% per year from 2012 to 2014. When he came to office in 2011, Ouattara pledged $19bn of investments in infrastructure projects. Four years later, the main work of his first term is undoubtedly Abidjan’s third bridge spanning the city’s lagoon. The 1.5km long bridge, which opened in January 2015, has already helped ease the traffic in Abidjan. The government announced in October that it is planning another $25bn in infrastructure projects for the 2016-2020 period. Other big infrastructure projects completedincludetwohighways:onebetween Abidjan and the capital Yamoussoukro that opened in 2013 and another linking Abidjan to the seaside town of Bassam, a 42km road that opened in September 2015.Thegovernmentsaysabout5,000km of rural roads were renovated and 346km of main roads were repaved since 2012.

BURKINA FASO

Production of cocoa, of which Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s top producer, hit anotherrecordinthe2014/2015seasonat 1.77m tonnes, compared to 1.74m tonnes a year earlier. Cashew nut production also beat a record with 700,000tn, up from 565,000tn in 2014 (see box). Other sectors reported smaller boosts to production: cotton output reached 450,000tn from 420,000tn and coffee production rose to 109,000tn from 105,000tn. Gold production was also forecast to rise 10% in 2015 to reach 18.6tn as new mines started to operate. Côte d’Ivoire also has deposits of 4bn tonnes of iron and 400m tonnes of nickel in the west of the country that the government would like to see developed. In the power sector, the Azito power plant inaugurated a new gas turbine, bringing its total capacity to 430MW. The Ciprel plant was also due to boost its capacity to 455MW by late 2015. A $650m hydroelectric dam with a 275MW capacity is being built in the south-west and will be completed 2017. The government aims to bring capacity to 4,000MW by 2020 from 1,772MW currently. While regular Ivorians often seem to be critical of how daily life has changed in the past few years, there are some

168 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

indicators – despite the general lack of reliable data – which show the situation has improved. For farmers, production has risen and prices paid to farmers for cocoa beans and cashew nuts also surged in the past few years. Cocoa farmers will receive 1,000 CFA francs/ kg of cocoa beans in 2015/2016 versus about 670 CFA francs three years ago. According to government statistics, the poverty rate fell to 46% in 2015 from 51% in 2011, while the average revenue of an Ivorian household rose to 461,000 CFA francs per year from 342,000 CFA francs in 2008. The government hopes the economic recovery will help improve the social and political situation, after a decade-long political crisis and a brief civil war in 2011 in which about 3,000 people were killed. The security situation has clearly improved. However, while Ouattara has multiplied efforts to attract investment and mobilise funds for the reconstruction, he has not received the same praise for what he has done in terms of political dialogue. TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION

The Commission Dialogue Vérité et Réconciliation was a failure and political dialogue has stalled. While the former president, Laurent Gbagbo, is detained in The Hague, his wife, the former first lady Simone Gbagbo, was sentenced in 2015 by an Ivorian court to 20 years in prison for harming state security. Analysts cri-

Human Development Index components 6

GNI per capita

5 Life expectancy 4 HDI 3 Education 2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

$25bn

The planned cost of the government’s 2016-2020 infrastructure programme ticised the trial for its poor organisation and the lack of evidence brought by the prosecutors. Long accused of implementing victor’s justice, Ouattara tried to rectify the situation a few months before the October 2015 election when the authorities charged several ex-rebels who backed him during the crisis. Reform is on the government’s agenda for next year. Ouattara promises to deliver anew constitutionthatwill address issues like nationality, a topic that contributed to years of national conflict. Following the election, the political environment seems to be on the brink of major reor-

SOURCE: UNDP - HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2014

COTE D’IVOIRE Ouattara on cloud nine ganisation. Côte d’Ivoire’s ruling party, the Rassemblement des Républicains, is united behind Ouattara – at least for now. Its partner in the ruling coalition, the Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI), had been deeply divided on whether to support Ouattara or present its own candidate for the October 2015 vote. The party’s president, Henri Konan Bédié, called for supporters to vote for Ouattara but some key figures of the party did not agree, paving the way for long-term divisions and maybe thorough restructuring of the party. The Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI) of ex-president Gbagbo is also deeply divided between the hardliners of the Gbagbo-or-nothing camp and the moderates. After more than four years, the party is still stuck in Gbagbo’s shadow. Even though the majority of Ivorians seem to be satisfied with the return of peace and stability, Ouattara still has more to do to prevent some parts of the population – especially those who still feel an attachment to Gbagbo – from developing a growing sense of resentment. Analysts say the Coalition Nationale pour le Changement, a newly formed alliance, is unlikely to endure. In anticipation of the October presidential elections, some FPI hardliners, representatives of small opposition parties and dissidents from the PDCI got together to challenge Ouattara. A reconfiguration of the opposition is possible in the year ahead. ●

Cashews provide some soft competition CASHEWS ARE on their way to becoming the cocoa of northern Côte d’Ivoire. Originally planted in the 1960s to reforest the arid north and prevent the advancing Sahara Desert, cashew nut trees only became a commercial crop in the 1990s. According to government statistics, production has more than tripled since 2005 to reach about 700,000tn

in 2015, making the nuts the second-most-important soft commodity export after cocoa beans. While Côte d’Ivoire is the world leader in terms of cocoa production, it accounts for nearly a quarter of global cashew supplies. As demand for cashews rose in Asia, Europe and the US – both in the snack market and the confectionary market – prices have gone

up over the past two years. Prices paid to farmers reached an average of 410 CFA francs ($0.68)/kg in 2015 compared with 175 francs/kg in 2013. Côte d’Ivoire’s global revenue for the sector amounted to 327bn CFA francs in 2014, representing a 47% increase over the previous year. The high prices obviously make many farmers happy, but they have had THE AFRICA REPORT

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a negative impact on the processing sector. Côte d’Ivoire has a processing capacity of 80,000tn, but factories were only running at about half of their capacity this year and many shut down operations. Singaporean company Olam’s processing plant in Bouaké, which was inaugurated in 2012, was the last major investment in the sector. ● •

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WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY 169 PROFILES

GAMBIA

The little country’s big man ➔ Jammeh is a dictator who brushes off all criticism and snuffs out all opposition SENEGAL

NEW ELECTION REGULATIONS

Diaspora Gambians continue to campaign vociferously against Jammeh, which could explain why the country’s election regulations now ban expatriates from holding top party positions. The electoral law, which the government reformed in mid-2015, also put up the fee for parties contesting elections from 10,000 dalasi ($258) to 1m, plus a host THE AFRICA REPORT

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50 km

➔ Population: 1.8 million ➔ Population growth: 3.2% ➔ GDP per capita: $384 ➔ Life expectancy: 58.8 ➔ Adult literacy: 55.6 ➔ Inflation: 6.5% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 172 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $28.4m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -13.5% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 99% ➔ Key export: Wood ➔ Last change of leader: 1994 ➔ GDP growth (%)

INFLATION CLIMBS HIGHER

-0.2

4.7

5.5

0.9

0.8

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

4.8 ➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

Atlantic Ocean

➔ The economy is tumbling on poor performances in agriculture and tourism resident Yahya Jammeh is no doubt as confident as ever of victory in the elections scheduled for November 2016. Opposition parties will struggle to mount a serious challenge to the former army officer, who has ruled the country with a rod of iron since he seized power in a coup in 1994. Jammeh keeps a stranglehold on the media and has positioned his key allies in the military, judiciary and intelligence organisations. Jammeh had little difficulty brushing off the last challenge to his rule, which was a clumsy coup attempt in December 2014 by a group of Gambians from the diaspora. Frequent cabinet and security reshuffles ensure that no potential rivals can establish a support base. Jammeh also keeps a firm hand on the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction party, which dominates the political sphere. Opposition parties, already weak and fragmented, have struggled to be heard on the campaign trail as the authorities cancelled some political rallies of the largest opposition group, the United Democratic Party (UDP). The UDP’s leader, 67-year-old Ousainou Darboe, is rumoured to be unwell; with the party’s former treasurer and number two Amadou Sanneh in jail since September 2013, there is no obvious successor who could garner sufficient support.

2014 there were arrests of several alleged homosexuals after Jammeh approved life sentences for anyone found guilty of ‘aggravated homosexuality’. The government’s declining international reputation can be expected to hurt the tourist trade, which is a key source of revenue, contributing 16% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013. In the 2014/2015 tourist season, the country suffered a sharp fall in visitor numbers – to 70,000 from 200,000 the previous season – as a result of the Ebola crisis in nearby countries, even though Gambia itself reported no cases of the disease.

of regulatory conditions such as annual audits of party accounts, compulsory party congresses every two years and increasing the number of required registration signatures from 500 to 10,000. Reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch highlight the country’s poor human rights record, as the government has continued to block United Nations and African Union attempts to investigate new violations. For example, some 30 people were arrested following the 2014 coup attempt, but subsequent court martial proceedings have been held in secret and the accused face the death penalty if convicted. Earlier in

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As tourism revenues plunged and as unpredictable rains undermined harvests, the country’s economic outlook became decidedly uncertain. After several years of strong rhetoric outlining the need to diversify the economy and industrialise the agricultural sector – which accounts for some 22% of GDP – there has been little progress. There have been few signs of corrective measures from the finance ministry or the central bank as the budget deficit spiralled and as inflation began to rise above 6%. Instead, Jammeh’s office decreed an official exchange rate for the dalasi at 25% above market rates in May. The national debt burden rose to an estimated 100% of GDP by the end of 2014, when interest payments alone gobbled up 22% of government revenue. The National Water and Electricity Company’s debts are also reducing the government’s ability to fight the economic downturn. The Banjul government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed on an emergency rapid credit facility of $10.8m in April, tied to a host of policy pledges to counteract Gambia’s balance of payments and fiscal imbalances. As soon as the IMF’s cheque cleared, Jammeh’s government abandoned the reforms. Gambia’s international relations have become even more polarised since theriseofseverediplomatictensionswith neighbouring Senegal and the expulsion in June of Agnès Guillaud, the European Union’s interim chargé d’affaires. ●

170 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

GHANA

Voting amidst the blackouts ➔ The NDC hopes for a last-minute economic revival ahead of the 2016 vote

Tamale

➔ The doubling of oil output promises brighter prospects after 2017

PLANS TO BOOST OUTPUT

Spelling out his action plan in late 2015, Akufo-Addo said that promotion of industry and manufacturing would take precedence so that the economy might become less import-dependent. He also promised to boost agriculture, reform the financial sector and lead Ghana to play a more robust role in the Economic Community of West African States. His party has been highly critical of the government’s inability to root out corruption. The NPP should have little difficulty capitalising on the deterioration in Ghana’s economic prospects since

TOGO

GHANA Kumasi

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

ACCRA Takoradi

150 km

Gulf of Guinea

➔ Population: 25.9 million ➔ Population growth: 2.1% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,401 ➔ Life expectancy: 61.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 76.6% ➔ Inflation: 15.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 138 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $3.4bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -8.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 108% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 2012 ➔ GDP growth (%)

7.3

NEW GAS PROJECTS TO COME

5.7

3.5

38.6

37.7

42.3

2014

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

47.8 2013

*Estimation Oct. 2015

ith elections looming in December 2016, President John Dramani Mahama will have to convince a very wary electorate that he is in the best position to restore Ghana’s ragged economic fortunes. Having won the 2012 elections on the basis of continuity – after the death in office of his predecessor John Atta Mills just five months before the polls – his government’s subsequent poor management record could persuade many voters to desert his National Democratic Congress (NDC) in favour of the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP). The 2016 campaign, which will be Nana Akufo-Addo’s third and final shot at the presidency, already shows signs of becoming a no-holds-barred affair. The NPP has not laid to rest its internal differences so that it can focus on the tasks of setting out its own priorities and holding the government to account. In late 2015, there were a few flare-ups between Akufo-Addo and NPP general secretary Kwabena Agyepong, who previously had supported Alan Kyerematen in a NPP presidential primary.

minded by former finance minister Kwesi Botchwey. Whether this will deliver a sufficient boost to the economy in time to save the NDC’s reputation at the polls remains to be seen, but the new extended credit facility foresees a return to stronger economic growth in 2016 while also demanding a tight fiscal reining in – which is specifically designed to prevent the inflationary overspending that has accompanied previous pre-election seasons. The IMF deal also requires the Mahama government to implement unpopular policies ahead of the elections, such as reducing spending on the public-sector wage bill.

BURKINA FASO

2008, when President John Kufuor’s NPP government lost power to the NDC, and especially the toughening of living conditions for the majority of Ghanaians. Over the past three years, the cedi lost some 60% of its value, while inflation continued to climb – the rate increasing from around 16% to 18% in the first nine months of 2015 – and electricity shortages became and remained acute. Hoping to find some way to reverse the damage, Mahama’s government succeeded in winning a $918m rescue package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was finally approved in April after tough negotiations master-

Whoever wins the next elections should at least be in charge of a rather healthier economy thereafter – with the prospect of a doubling of oil production in 2017 followed by the coming on-stream of substantial gas production in 2018. At the very least, these developments should pave the way for alleviating the electricity crisis, cutting down on oil imports and generating more revenue for the government. For the year ahead, economic data is giving the government cause for concern. Notably, the fiscal deficit stood at 9.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014 and government debt rose from 39% of GDP in 2011 to 70% of GDP at the end of 2014. This is a reflection of Ghana’s increasing resort to eurobond issues. Accra issued a 15-year eurobond worth $1bn in October with a steep 10.75% coupon due to weaker international support for the issue. Meanwhile, Ghana’s current account recorded a deficit of more than 10% of GDP over the past three years. In his 2015 budget statement, finance minister Seth Terkper said he expected the country to earn $1.2bn from oil and petroleum products during the year, but receipts took a hit as the oil price slumped. That should be remedied once the Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) oil field comes online in 2016 with the capacity to produce 80,000 barrels per day when it hits its peak in late 2016.

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171

PRESSURE TO PRIVATISE POWER

Power minister Kwabena Donkor has gambled his political career on the delivery of more electricity, having promised to step down at the beginning of 2016 if the crisis continues. Among other things, the new IMF facility has committed the government to relying on more privately financed

Ghana cocoa production 1.2

(million tonnes)

SOURCE: ICCO, HARDMAN AGRIBUSINESS

Eni and its partners are set to follow suit with the Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) oil and gas project, which should produce first oil in 2017 and 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2019. In July, the World Bank agreed to provide $700m in guarantees for OCTP’s Sankofa gas project. Those funds are expected to help mobilise nearly $8bn in investment. Sankofa’s gas could generate up to 1,000MW of electricity once the field and associated infrastructure are developed. For two years, the national power distributor, the Electricity Company of Ghana, has been running under capacity, with the result being that power outages in some parts of Accra have often lasted three or four days at a time. Ghana’s electric power crisis should ease once the gas supply increases to the Atuabo gas plant in the second phase of development, which is planned for 2017. However, promises of two power barges from Turkey are yet to come to fruition, despite being agreed on in 2014 and scheduled for operation the first quarter of the year.

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

80,000

Barrels per day that Tullow’s TEN oil field will add to Ghana’s production power plants. At the same time, the US Millennium Challenge Corporation’s $500m Ghana Power Compact is meant to encourage more efficiency. Analysts say that the party that wins the 2016 election will be under pressure to initiate much more extensive privatisation in the power sector. However, that could present a conflict of interest for the NDC, a party that favours national ownership. Ghana’s glowing oil prospects will be somewhat dampened until there is a resolution of a border dispute with Côte d’Ivoire. The Ivorian government claims that Ghana has been exploring

for oil in what it considers to be its maritime space. Although an international tribunal ordered that Ghana stop further exploration in the disputed area, it threw out the Ivorian request that the current works be stopped. The decision was a relief for Tullow as its TEN oilfield would have been affected. A final ruling is not expected until 2017. Despite the fall in commodity prices, the prospects for both cocoa and gold exports are seen to be relatively steady. Cocoaoperations,afterunder-performingin the2014/2015seasonwithonly750,000tn yielded from a predicted 900,000tn, will be helped by international financial support for the Cocoa Board, which should enable the purchase of 850,000tn in the 2015/2016 season. According to the chamber of mines, revenue from gold fell from $4.8bn in 2013 to $3.8bn in 2014 but, after AngloGold Ashanti halted production at its Obuasi mine in 2014, there is now the possibility that this major mine could soon undergo major redevelopment and modernisation with the collaboration of Randgold Resources. While Ghana has successfully attained some Millennium Development Goals – halving extreme poverty, providing universal primary education and promoting gender equality – developmental disparities continue to exist throughout the country, with the three northern regions still lagging behind those in the south. ●

Preparing for the polls THE OPPOSITION New Patriotic Party (NPP) is calling for a new voter register ahead of the 2016 elections. It hopes this could remedy the inconsistencies in the 2012 polls, which led to a long legal wrangle before it would accept the results. The party still fears that people could be brought in from neighbouring countries to vote in the elections. THE AFRICA REPORT

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All parties accept that the register is indeed skewed. While the National Democratic Congress (NDC) says there is no guarantee that similar problems will not arise, the other parties support the idea of a new register and have submitted proposals to the electoral commission. The commission would have to decide well before the elections whether

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such an exercise is possible before making the necessary technical arrangements. The NPPs vice-presidential candidate, Mahamudu Bawumia, suggested that the commission lease equipment from Nigeria to save on what could amount to costs of $80m-$120m. All parties are committed to ensuring that the judiciary can be trusted to be impartial

in any post-election appeals process. In October, the government suspended seven out of 12 high court judges over allegations of bribery that emerged in the course of a documentary film made by journalist Anas Aremeyaw Anas. The judicial council suspended 22 junior judges as well as court officials who were caught on camera accepting bribes. ●

172 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

GUINEA

Ebola still not beaten ➔ It will take years to recover from the Ebola crisis and attract new investment

GUINEA BISSAU

PROJECT CHECKLIST

Condé will be pressed for time to deliver on his electoral promises. The biggest achievement of his first term was the construction of the 240MW Kaléta Dam, which began production in July 2015. Prior to Kaléta’s construction, the country’s largest hydroelectric plant was the 75MW one at Garafiri. Most of

By September 2015, the country had recorded more than 3,500 Ebola cases and 2,100 hundred deaths since the 2014 outbreak. The authorities tested the VSV-EBOV vaccine in the country, and its effectiveness has led to the hope that Guinea will be Ebola-free in 2016. Like its West African counterparts, the Guinean government will need to invest to rebuild its health infrastructure and train more medical staff. In March, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) granted the government $29.8m in debt relief to allow it to spend more on health.

MALI

GUINEA Kankan

CONAKRY

lpha Condé won a second term in the 11 October 2015 presidential election with 57.8% of the vote, securing a chance to address the lingering Ebola outbreak and achieve some of the goals left unrealised after his first term. The political environment is likely to remain as tense in 2016 as it was in 2015, as most presidential contenders rejected the poll and argued the government is unwilling to organise a free and fair vote. The economic environment in the year ahead is also unlikely to be very conducive to developmental progress because commodity prices are low and investors have preferred to invest in countries outside of West Africa’s Ebola-affected countries. The divided opposition has so far proved ineffective in challenging the Condé government at the polls. Opposition leaders Sidya Touré of the Union des Forces Républicaines and the Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée’s Cellou Dalein Diallo went their separate ways in October after failing to get the government to agree to implement reforms to level the playing field. Touré and Dalein Diallo have complained about the role of local government officials in the elections and the reliability of the electoral register. The dissatisfaction with the presidential election could lead the opposition to launch more street protests, like the ones that have shaken the government since 2010.

SENEGAL

SIERRA LEONE

Atlantic Ocean

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

LIBERIA

200 km

➔ Population: 11.7 million ➔ Population growth: 2.5% ➔ GDP per capita: $545 ➔ Life expectancy: 56.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 30.4% ➔ Inflation: 9% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 179 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $566m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -16.7% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 63% ➔ Key export: Aluminium ➔ Last change of leader: 2010 ➔ GDP growth (%) 4.9

2.3

1.1

➔ GDP ($bn)

6.2

6.7

7.1

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

RISING POVERTY

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ President Condé handily won the presidential vote in the first round

Condé’s ongoing non-Ebola priorities are in the field of infrastructure and big mining and agricultural projects. He still wants to make progress on the Transguinéen railway line to connect the isolated southern part of the country to the coast. In terms of public services, the government says it will devote resources to education, employment and improving the health system. In November, the World Health Organisation declared Sierra Leone Ebolafree, but Guinea still had four cases at the time. Cooperation between communities to fight the disease has lagged behind that of Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Due to the impact of the disease and the commodity price downturn, the IMF is expecting growth to be stagnant in 2015 before increasing strongly in 2016. The Ebola crisis hit the agriculture, tourism, trade and transport sectors the most. In turn, the government has collected less revenue over the past two years. The Condé government, which came to power in 2010, has not made any major advances in fighting poverty. Government statistics show that the poverty rate rose from 53% in 2007 to 55% in 2014. The government’s limited capacity has meant that it has not been able to focus on other needed economic reforms during the health crisis. The country’s natural resources hold great promise for economic growth, but the current price environment means that companies are likely to be slow to develop new projects. The government estimates that it could earn $20bn to spend on infrastructure and other projects from the large iron ore mines at Simandou, Kalia and Mount Nimba and the smaller one at Forécariah. Anglo-Australian company Rio Tinto has been dragging its feet on Blocks 3 and 4 at Simandou since 1997, angering the Guinean authorities. Despite its legal battles with Israeli magnate Beny Steinmetz over Simandou’s Blocks 1 and 2, the government announced in July that it is preparing tender documents to attract new international interest in the iron ore deposit there. ●

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WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY 173 PROFILES

GUINEA-BISSAU

Progress in fits and starts ➔ Vaz has named a new government and is seeking to end party squabbles

SENEGAL

➔ Several programmes are underway to improve the economy’s attractiveness

GUINEA BISSAU BISSAU

WEAK OPPONENTS

The PAIGC’s dominance has led to other problems that Vaz, a former finance minister under the slain president João Bernardo ‘Nino’ Vieira, decries. He accused his own government of nepotism, corruption, hostility towards an independent judiciary and a lack of transparency. The country also lacks strong •

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GUINEA Atlantic Ocean

DRAWING DRUG CARTELS

50 km

➔ Population: 1.7 million ➔ Population growth: 2.4% ➔ GDP per capita: $582 ➔ Life expectancy: 54.3 ➔ Adult literacy: 59.9% ➔ Inflation: 1.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 177 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $21.5m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -3.5% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 74% ➔ Key export: Cashew nuts ➔ Last change of leader: 2014 ➔ GDP growth (%)

0.8

2.5

4.7

4.8

➔ GDP ($bn)

1.1

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

olitical stability in GuineaBissaucouldonceagainremain elusive if President José Mário Vaz is not able to smooth over problems in the ruling Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde (PAIGC) in 2016. Vaz, who was elected in 2014, had three prime ministers in the space of a few months in late 2015 due to his rivalry with PAIGC president DomingosSimõesPereira,who was prime minister until Vaz sacked his government in August. The two men had increasingly been at odds and a particularly inflammatory state of the nation speech by Vaz, in which he accused Pereira’s government of being opaque and corrupt, brought all of the rancour out in the open. Not only did Vaz have a problem with Pereira, but he also quarrelled with parliamentary leader Cipriano Cassamá. Vaz appointed a new government in October with Carlos Correia as prime minister and refused to give Pereira a post. Whereas military coups have been common, the main problem now is within the PAIGC itself. For most of Guinea-Bissau’s 41-year history of independence, the party – which was once the only legal one – has been the dominant force in the country’s political life. This means that every problem within the party, like the fall-out between Vaz and Pereira, has the potential to become a national crisis.

THE AFRICA REPORT

Vaz’s government is leading a poorly funded programme of security sector reform to retire thousands of soldiers. The military’s willingness to stay on the sidelines is very likely the result of Vaz’s decisive action shortly after his election to dismiss former army Chief of Staff General António Indjai, the leader of the last coup in 2012.

political competition. The Partido para a Renovacão Social, which has 41 seats in parliament, has yet to move beyond its mostly Balanta origins and become a truly national opposition. Alarmed by the August crisis, a number of international players including the United Nations (UN), the Economic Community of West African States and the European Union piled on the pressure to ensure that Guinea-Bissau would not descend into yet another period of instability, which has been chronic since a first coup took place in 1980. The pressureworked,andthemilitaryassuredthat it would stay out of this political crisis.

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The collusion between the security services and drug traffickers led GuineaBissau to be labelled a narco-state. The Vaz government has recently been collaborating with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime on securing the country’s borders and fighting the drug trade and high levels of criminality in the country. Economic reforms are an important element of Vaz’s plans for the government. The economy is poorly developed, and cashew nuts account for some 90% of the country’s exports. The government is working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which issued a $23.7m extended credit facility in July, to improve nearly all of the ways the government deals with money. As a result of the reforms underway and the performances of the agriculture, telecommunications and construction sectors, the IMF is predicting strong economic growth for the year ahead. The March 2015 international donor roundtable gave Vaz’s 10-year economic development plan a big boost. Donors pledged $1.5bn of the programme’s estimated costs of $2.1bn. They agreed to finance some reforms of the security sector and a diversification of the country’s agricultural sector. The government and World Bank are auditing a cashew levy scheme, which should lead to a new strategy to encourage more value-added processing in the sector. While the government hopes to attract more international investment, it announced in May 2015 that it was launching a review of mining and forestry contracts signed by previous governments, amid worries that the level of exploitation may not be sustainable. ●

174 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

LIBERIA

Halfway to recovery GUINEA

SIERRA LEONE

➔ Peacekeepers are scheduled to leave in 2016, raising security concerns

fter overcoming the worst Ebola outbreak in history, Liberia continues to face hurdles in the way of growth and stability. As the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission draws down and the next elections approach in 2017, the country is faced with the challenges of sustaining the will to rebuild institutions, fighting corruption and creating employment opportunities. The conduct and outcome of the elections will play a major role in determining ongoing donor support. Prominent candidates are expected to include vice-president Joseph Boakai; businessman Benoni Urey, a former associate of jailed ex-leader Charles Taylor; Jewel Howard Taylor, a senator from Bong County and ex-wife of the former president; and George Weah, founder of the main opposition Congress for Democratic Change party. In May 2015, Liberia became the first country in the affected region to be declared Ebola-free. New cases which surfaced in June, July and November, however, have raised questions about the nation’s capacity to detect and manage Ebola cases without the massive donor support it received in 2014. Some epidemiologists argue that more outbreaks are possible, but with the increased training and capacity of healthcare staff, a repeat of the thousands of infections and deaths seems unlikely. LACK OF TRUST IN GOVERNMENT

The healthcare network still lacks infrastructure, access to electricity and water, and a steady stream of protective gear and medical supplies. The health ministry has laid out a seven-year plan for rebuilding the system with a price tag of $1.7bn. Funding this will be a serious challenge given persistent cor-

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

MONROVIA Buchanan

LIBERIA Atlantic Ocean

100 km

➔ Population: 4.3 million ➔ Population growth: 2.6% ➔ GDP per capita: $469 ➔ Life expectancy: 60.6 ➔ Adult literacy: 47.6% ➔ Inflation: 7.9% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 175 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $302m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -41.6% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 59% ➔ Key export: Iron ore ➔ Last change of leader: 2006 ➔ GDP growth (%)

5.6 0.7

0.9

2.1

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

8.7

claims that former members of the National Oil Company of Liberia paid bribes to the legislature, involved a defendant who accused Johnson Sirleaf of sanctioning bribes. The case was mysteriously dismissed in May and is yet to be taken to the supreme court. The UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) is due to withdraw its troops in mid2016, leaving the country responsible for its own security. But Liberia’s security forces appear unprepared to stand on their own, with ongoing budgeting, capacity and logistical problems. A security transition plan is estimated to cost $76m. Funding is yet to be secured, although donors and diplomatic observers lauded recent dismissals and changes at the highest levels of the police force. A CHALLENGE FOR CANDIDATES

➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Building a better healthcare system is a key priority after the Ebola crisis

ruption and financial mismanagement within the public service. Deep distrust of government officials and institutions has been cited as a major factor that exacerbated the spread of the virus, with many Liberians initially saying that the outbreak was a scam orchestrated by leaders to make extra cash. Elite corruption is the most visible and the greatest source of public resentment. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s government has drawn up indictments and made threats to punish corrupt officials, but there has been little action. A case launched by the Liberia AntiCorruption Commission, based on

It is not clear whether UNMIL will play a role in the lead-up to the 2017 elections, which can be expected to be fiercely contested. Johnson Sirleaf’s acknowledged statusandfavourwiththeUSgovernment garnered significant donor solidarity, but whether new contenders can attract the same kind of support remains to be seen. Reconciliation and impunity for war crimes are issues that were sidelined during the Ebola outbreak and are yet to appear back on the political agenda. Other unresolved legacies of the civil war include a lack of access to quality education and high levels of youth unemployment. Weakening prices of iron ore and rubber, Liberia’s major exports, portend rough times ahead for the already weak economy, which has failed to diversify or develop value-added industries since the end of the war and was further sent reeling by the Ebola crisis. Some economic activity is at least returning, however slowly. The upgrade of the Mount Coffee hydroelectric dam should be completed by the end of 2016, and Aureus Mining’s New Liberty gold mine started operations in September 2015 after an investment of $250m. However, there are frequent conflicts around natural resource concessions. ●

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WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY 175 PROFILES

MALI

Peace proves problematic ➔ The government has been unable to control its allies and its enemies

governmentgroupLaPlateforme’sbreach of the ceasefire in August 2015 – when it moved to oust the secessionist Coordination des Mouvements de l’Azawad from Anéfis – was a slap in the face to diplomats who had promised peace dividends to the signatories of the Algiers accords. There is however, at last, a sense of continuity in government which may allow improvements to be made. IBK’s third prime minister, Modibo Keïta, is knowledgeable about the workings of government, but it remains to be seen whether he has the authority to rein in its nepotism and dodgy dealing.

300 km ALGERIA

➔ The economy remains largely dependent on gold and cotton exports

KATIBA RECRUITS

The security situation seems to be entering a new and dangerous phase, with a shift in terror activity towards the south and centre of Mali. Two new Al Qaeda katibas (fighting units), the Front de Libération de Macina (MLF) and Khalid Ibn Walid, claimed responsibility for attacks on Malian army and gendarmerie bases as far south as the Ivorian border in July 2015. The katibas are allied to Iyad ag Ghali’s Ansar Dine. The MLF members have a •

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SENEGAL

Gao

BAMAKO Ségou

NIGER BURKINA FASO

GUINEA

GHANA

BENIN

➔ Population: 15.3 million ➔ Population growth: 3% ➔ GDP per capita: $672 ➔ Life expectancy: 55 ➔ Adult literacy: 38.7% ➔ Inflation: 2.4% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 176 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $198.9m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -3.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 129% ➔ Key export: Cotton ➔ Last change of leader: 2013 ➔ GDP growth (%)

1.7

7.2

ECONOMIC BRIGHT SPOTS

➔ GDP ($bn)

11.1

12.1

11.8

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

alians long ago coined a name – narco-jihadistes – for the main protagonists in the northern conflict. In 2016, the international architects of the peace plan for northern Mali will face the uncomfortable truth that the political solution envisaged for the Tuaregs by the June 2015 Algiers Accord is of little interest to the powerful proponents of instability who vie for routes to smuggle drugs, fuel, arms, migrants and foodstuffs across the Sahara. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK) seems convinced that peace will not happen while he is in power. The government has been weak in the face of cartels, Islamists, the French military and the United Nations (UN) Security Council, with its 10,000 deployed peacekeepers. In violation of the constitution, municipal elections were not held as planned at the end of October 2015. Given that implementation of the Algiers peace accord with the northern rebels – which envisages decentralisation and a complete reorganisation of the regions – has not begun, it looked unlikely that they would be able to take place in a meaningful way. Regional and municipal elections should now be held in 2016.

THE AFRICA REPORT

MALI MAURITANIA

black and Malian ethnic profile. Led by Amadou Koufa, a member of the Islamic police that controlled Timbuktu in 2012, the MLF wants to revive a 19th century Islamic republic - Macina - that spanned from Timbuktu to the current Ivorian border. The MLF recruits among young, Peul (Fula) herdsmen who have endured years of discrimination from sedentary populations in the south, including local government officials and the army. While the international community – through the UN Security Council – has shown itself unanimous in its will to resolve the Malian conflict, the danger of donor fatigue is creeping in. The pro-

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The economy continues to rebound from the depths of the country’s conflict. Those investors that have returned, like the gold mining firms, have only done so gingerly. Turkish Airlines’ move to start flying to Bamako in 2015 and the imminent opening of a new air terminal in the capital provide a couple of bright spots. French construction company Sogea-Satom has repaired machinery that was smashed up by rebels in 2012, but it remains too dangerous for its engineers to return to work on the muchawaited European Union-funded road linking Timbuktu to the south. Cotton and gold are Mali’s export mainstays, and prices of both commodities are not projected to rise over the next year. New mines are due to come online in 2016, including Hummingbird Resources’ Yanfolila deposit, which is set to produce 100,000oz in its first year. Mali’s reliance on agriculture is a pragmatic choice based on available investment funds, potential windfall from climate change talks and the need to keep thousands of young people employed. The 2016 budget includes a boost for agriculture spending, but land tenure legislation remains weak and outdated. International investors and donor institutions say a draft agriculture law may finally be approved in 2016. It is not yet clear what the government’s decentralisation plans mean in terms of investment and local government spending. ●

176 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

NIGER

Battling Boko Haram ➔ President Issoufou is running for re-election in February’s vote

300 km

ALGERIA

➔ New infrastructure and mining projects will boost the economy

COMBATING TERRORISM

Niger has continued to promote itself to the international community as a reliable counter-terrorism partner. The deployment of around 300 French military personnel to Niger as part of the reorganised pan-Sahelian initiative Operation Barkhane began in late 2014. Meanwhile, on the domestic political

NIGER MALI

Agadez

NIAMEY

Zinder

BURKINA FASO

CHAD

NIGERIA

BENIN

➔ Population: 17.8 million ➔ Population growth: 3.9% ➔ GDP per capita: $403 ➔ Life expectancy: 58.4 ➔ Adult literacy: 19.1% ➔ Inflation: 1.3% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 187 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $769m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -19.1% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 39% ➔ Key export: Cigarettes ➔ Last change of leader: 2011 ➔ GDP growth (%)

4.6

6.9

4.3

INCREASED OUTPUT

5.4

➔ GDP ($bn)

7.5

7.1

7.7

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

he main focus of Niger’s foreign policy in 2016 is likely to remain the threat posed by the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram, which has expanded its operations into the border regions around Lake Chad. In response to a number of deadly attacks on Nigerien soil, the government sent several hundred troops into Nigeria to join Chadian and Nigerian soldiers in January 2015. The decision reflected Niger and Chad’s disappointment that Nigeria’s thenpresident Goodluck Jonathan had failed to contain the group’s activities. Despite a few early gains made by the joint Niger/Chad/Nigeria force, including re-taking the towns of Damasak and Malam Fatouri, Boko Haram’s ability to operate in Niger does not appear to have been significantly reduced. In June, at least 38 people died in an attack on the villages of Lamina and Ungumawo in Diffa Province. In addition, the United Nations now estimates Niger is playing host to 100,000 Nigerians and Nigeriens displaced by the conflict. The situation on Niger’s western flank has improved somewhat as the conflict in Mali has lost some of its momentum. The Nigerien government has increased patrols on the border and the flow of refugees into Tillaberi Province has slowed. Niger still does not have a means to address the long-term issue of its vast, permeable desert borders.

et Républicain (FPR). The new grouping comprises some 30 parties, civil society groups and labour unions, and includes the parties of three of Niger’s most prominent opposition leaders – Hama Amadou’s Mouvement Démocratique Nigérien, Seyni Oumarou’s Mouvement National pour la Société du Développement and Mahamane Ousmane’s Convention Démocratique et Sociale. Amadou, seen by many as the most credible challenger to Issoufou, was arrested on his return to Niamey from exile on 14 November. He had fled to Paris in August 2014 after being accused of involvement in baby-trafficking.

LIBYA

scene, 2016 promises to be a crunch year, with presidential elections due on 21 February. Political opposition to President Mahamadou Issoufou has continued throughout the year. A number of street demonstrations took place, with people protesting everything from increasing food prices to the lack of transparency in the extractiveindustries.Thepolicebrokeupseveral demonstrations, and Issoufou’s opponents accuse him of stifling democracy. As the race towards the presidential vote heated up, the main opposition parties announced the formation of a coalition in August, the Front Patriotique

Niger’s economic outlook remains favourable. Improvements in services and agriculture have driven growth, although there were still regionalised food shortages in 2015. The extractive industries in particular have performed well. British company Savannah Petroleum signed a new oil-production-sharing agreement with the government in June 2015, and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has increased output from its Agadem field to around 18,000 barrels per day, all of which goes to the Zinder refinery. However, a wave of strikes by workers at the refinery interrupted supply in 2015. No progress has been made on plans to build an export pipeline to connect with the CNPC pipeline in neighbouring Chad, but significant improvements to infrastructure are on the cards with signed contracts for a new railway connection to Benin and a 600MW coal-fired power station at Salkadamna. The long-standing issue of migrants from West African passing through the northern desert town of Agadez on their way to Libya has again reared its head, as record numbers of migrants died attempting to cross the Mediterranean in early 2015. Yet again, the European Union vowed to tackle the problem at source, and Niger passed a new migration law. However, thousands are still believed to be passing through the town. ●

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WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY 177 PROFILES

NIGERIA

Buhari’s bumpy learning curve

lthoughtheelectionchaosthat many predicted during the March and April presidential, legislative and gubernatorial elections never materialised and the government of President Muhammadu Buhari emerged as convincingly elected, the immediate prospects for Nigeria remain decidedly mixed. A tough military head of state whose regime of 1984-1985 ended an earlier experiment in democracy, Buhari is now encountering the tricky realities of ruling contemporary Nigeria and of leading the All Progressives Congress (APC) – effectively a coalition between his own Congress for Progressive Change and several others. The new government is confronted not only by the adverse fiscal impact of low oil prices and an increasingly tepid economy but also the major challenges holding back Nigeria’s interlinked oil, gas and electric power sectors. There are also the persistent threats of the Boko Haram Islamist insurgents, unrest in the Niger Delta and Nigeria’s ever-present scourge of corruption, which continues to cost billions of dollars annually. Nigerians and foreign investors alike will be demanding much clearer signs of progress in 2016. While the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) continues its soul-searching after its first loss of power during Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, Buhari is watching out for the kingmakers in his own party. CALCULATED APPOINTMENTS

These include former Lagos State governor Bola Tinubu of the Action Congress of Nigeria party, whose claimed efforts in delivering the APC victory in Nigeria’s south-west region are not without strings, even if many believe Tinubu’s influence is diminished. Buhari will be criticised if he favours his own northern region in major apTHE AFRICA REPORT

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•

NIGER

CHAD

Kano ABUJA

NIGERIA Lagos Port Harcourt

CAMEROON

Gulf of Guinea

CLEAN-UP EFFORTS

➔ Population: 173.6 million ➔ Population growth: 2.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $2,758 ➔ Life expectancy: 52.5 ➔ Adult literacy: 59.6% ➔ Inflation: 9.1% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 152 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $4.7bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -1.8% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 73% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 2015 ➔ GDP growth (%)

5.4

6.3 4

4.3

493

484.9

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

521.8

574

2013

2014

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Low oil prices are forcing government to focus on basic economic imperatives

ernment has taken office. Some saw the delay as forced by the need to placate the APC’s factions rather than as the result of a zealous vetting procedure. Others questioned Buhari’s focus on investigatingformerministersservinginJonathan’s government rather than those of Umaru Yar’Adua’s and Olusegun Obasanjo’s, suggesting that the war on corruption seems to be politically motivated.

300 km

BENIN

➔ The new president has set out a challenging reform agenda

pointments and investments, for example. Such perceptions are heightened among the general populace and particularly in the PDP-dominated Niger Delta, where oil theft is a problem and ex-militants benefited from former president Goodluck Jonathan’s largesse under his amnesty programme. Ethnic and religious divisions are routinely resolved through political alliances and the socalled ‘zoning’ of appointments, but even the north has its own ‘east’, ‘west’, ‘central’ and other factions to satisfy. There was criticism of Buhari in his delay in appointing his first cabinet, so expectations are high now that the gov-

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Initially at least, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Department of State Security and other anticorruption agencies were targeting Jonathan appointees and PDP politicians, appearing only to pursue APC-affiliated politicians who had offended the leadership, such as senate president Bukola Saraki. Nevertheless, the PDP’s hold on power did provide disproportionate opportunities for corruption, particularly in the oil sector, and the multitude of new investigations and audits has created an industry of its own. From Buhari’s perspective, the state of the economy may be a lower priority than northern security – a focus of numerous discussions and military cooperation with Chad, Cameroon and Niger, and of high-profile 2015 state visits to the US, France, Britain and Germany. Given the speed with which Buhari shook up Nigeria’s military and state security top brass, much is expected of the new commanders, but it will not be an easy matter to end the Boko Haram threat (see box). Having taken personal control of the oil ministry, Buhari will be overseeing big changes to a host of oil industry practices – including controversial oil swaps and allocations – and wants to split the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) into a regulatory body and an operator. New NNPC managing director Emmanuel Kachikwu has been prompt in suggesting a renegotiation of production-sharing contracts with the oil majors operating in offshore waters and in appointing leaders for the NNPC’s newly consolidated directorates and its numerous subsidiaries. He may however

178 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

NIGERIA Buhari’s bumpy learning curve

‘ZERO-BASED’ BUDGET PLANNING

A sceptic would not expect Nigeria’s 2016 budget process to be any less fractious and delayed than in previous years when the federal government, house and senate argued over spending priorities. Yemi Osinbajo, the vice-president, has proposed ‘zero-based’ budget planning according to needs and costs rather

Refineries’ consolidated capacity utilisation (%)

24.1

25 20 15 10 5 0

13.6

11.2 0

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. 2015

$9bn

The cost of the refinery that businessman Aliko Dangote plans to build than anticipated revenue. Buhari and his team say that measures like mandatory state-agency use of a treasury single account – rather than dispersed accounts at different banks – will further reduce revenue leakages. A tight budget will reduce Nigeria’s ability to fund its infrastructure needs, and other drags on the economy will persist. The effect of oil prices on Nigeria’s currency and the costs of central bank governor Emefiele’s efforts to protect the naira have impacted investor interest and the country’s non-oil sectors. Although the government has implemented both

SOURCE: NNPC

hold back on the much-delayed petroleum industry bill reforms and attempt to upgrade the oil and gas sector under existing regulations. The revival of oil refining in Nigeria at last seems possible after decades of financially ruinous fuel imports. Kachikwu wants all four existing refineries to become fully functional early in 2016 and appears to support a degree of privatesector participation in improving their operations. Another part of the picture involves the plans of billionaire cement magnateAlikoDangote,whohopestodevelop a $9bn refinery within three years. Unfortunately for Buhari’s team and central bank governor Godwin Emefiele, Nigeria’s economic prospects will remain weak next year. Jonathan and his finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala squandered the opportunity of high oil prices by failing to save sufficiently for a rainy day. National output has fallen below the daily average of 2bn barrels recorded in 2014, and the federal government’s revenue remains oil-dominated.

official and de facto naira devaluations since November 2014, a host of incremental foreign-exchange restrictions has not only prompted the high-profile ejection of Nigeria’s bonds from an influential JPMorgan bond index, but may have further effects on business. Manufacturers complain about the combined effect of the weaker naira and the foreign-exchange restrictions on their ability to import vital inputs. This will damage growth and local employment if not resolved. Reduced service-sector growth and stalling per capita income and consumer purchasing power were among the factors that prompted downward revisions in Nigeria’s overall 2015 economic growth estimates. The government’s inability to resolve or prevent the recurrence of major fuel and electricity shortages will present further obstacles. There is an urgent need for improvements in regulation, temporary assistance for struggling electricity companies and fuel importers as well as increases in refining capacity, more gas supplies for power plants, improvements to the power transmission network and delivering on new power projects. Nigeria’s banks will continue to weather adverse conditions that in 2015 prompted warnings from analysts and ratings agencies. The high exposure of some banks to both upstream and downstream oil and to indebted power companies is a persistent concern. ●

Evolving strategies in the war against Boko Haram SINCE PRESIDENT Muhammadu Buhari shook up the top army command, the military has scored some success in eradicating Boko Haram strongholds in north-eastern Nigeria. This has built on the territorial gains and the effort to eliminate the group’s bases that started towards the end of Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency, but the insurgents

can still cause significant fatalities. Eradicating Boko Haram’s capacity to mount isolated terrorist attacks, including suicide bombings, will be no easy matter. While there have been signs of incremental progress and military chiefs say they can soon defeat Boko Haram, there is speculation that the group wants to broaden its geographic reach within

Nigeria and that it might yet target Lagos. Buhari’s public acknowledgement that very tentative negotiations with some Boko Haram members have taken place is an indication of the uncertainties that lie ahead. Analysts argue that Boko Haram has been revising its tactics since losing territory. Some of them assessed the total number of deaths THE AFRICA REPORT

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N ° 76

caused by the group during Buhari’s first 100 days at around 800 – which, if true, would represent no reduction in average fatalities during Jonathan’s presidency. More convincing victories will be needed to dispel inevitable scepticism over the security forces’ announcements of military success and the capture of alleged Boko Haram plotters. ● •

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WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY 179 PROFILES

SENEGAL

A shorter stay for Sall ➔ The government seeks investment in key transport and energy projects

iththegovernmentfocused on channeling domestic and international investment into the projects of the Plan Sénéngal Emergent, President Macky Sall’s other priority for 2016 is political reform. He has promised to hold a referendum on reducing presidential terms from seven to five years in May 2016. He had said he would reduce his term and implement other reforms to “strengthen our democracy” in 2015 and during his 2012 election campaign. He argues that the moves would show he is not interested in clinging to power, but has not yet announced what other reforms would be included in the vote. However, the referendum plan could prove more challenging for Sall, as a group of politicians within his own party, the Alliance pour la République (APR), is now vocally opposed to the change from seven to five years. They are worried about the political and legal consequences of such a move. And while it does not seem that APR members would split the party over the issue, it is raising tensions and could lead to some people campaigning for a ‘no’ vote in the referendum. If the change in presidential terms is accepted, the next election campaign will soon begin and the polls will be moved from 2019 to 2017. NEW GENERATION

Sall is confident of victory because the opposition is dogged by infighting. The Parti Démocratique Sénégalais (PDS) of former president Abdoulaye Wade named his son, Karim Wade, as presidential candidate in March 2015 a few days before the Cour de Répression de l’Enrichissement Illicite handed down his jail sentence on corruption charges. In August, the supreme court confirmed Wade’s six-year imprisonment on appeal. THE AFRICA REPORT

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N ° 76

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100 km Atlantic Ocean

neighbourhood, the government is worried that Senegal could be used as a base for people sympathetic to the group. The government organised its largest round of arrests of religious leaders and their allies in an anti-terrorism campaign in October and November 2015. Besides the national development plan and new investment in telecoms and oil exploration, the government has been focused on promoting tourism, which has been hurt by the country’s relatively higher costs and the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. In the 2015 high tourism season, hotel operators reported that occupancy rates dropped by more than 50%.

MAURITANIA Saint-Louis

DAKAR Thiès

SENEGAL MALI

GAMBIA

GUINEA-BISSAU

GUINEA

➔ Population: 14.1 million ➔ Population growth: 2.9% ➔ GDP per capita: $934 ➔ Life expectancy: 63.5 ➔ Adult literacy: 55.7 ➔ Inflation: 0.6% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 163 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $342.7m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -6.1% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 92% ➔ Key export: Frozen fish ➔ Last change of leader: 2012 ➔ GDP growth (%)

AIRLINE WOES

4.7 3.6

5.1

5.9

➔ GDP ($bn)

15.7

15.2

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ A vote on term limits will test Sall’s popularity and control of his party

The elder Wade maintains control of the PDS and backs a group that insists thatKarimshouldremainthepresidential candidatenomatterwhat.However,more transparency and democracy are needed in the party, says Modou Diagne Fada, head of the PDS group in the national assembly. He is calling for Abdoulaye to step down and a new generation to take over. Meanwhile, former prime minister Souleymane Ndéné Ndiaye quit the PDS in May due to his dissatisfaction with the party’s direction. While Senegal has been spared the instability brought by the rebels of the Boko Haram Islamist group in Nigeria and its

D E C E M B E R 2 015 - J A N UA R Y 2 016

To fight that downward trend, the government abolished its visa requirements in May 2015 and reduced airport taxes earlier in the year to make Senegal more competitive. Dakar will inaugurate a new international airport in 2016, and the government is in talks with Islamic financiers to back projects including a new railway to link the airport to the capital. The troubled Senegal Airlines will also need more help in the coming year. It has more than $80m in debts and went more than five months in 2015 without paying its employees. The airline is looking for a strategic partner and to cut its wage bill by about 40%. The International Monetary Fund suggests that the government sign management contracts with all of the troubled parastatals that continue to require cash injections, like the Société National d’Électricité (Senelec). Continued water and electricity problems led Sall to reshuffle his government in June 2015. He named his cabinet director Mouhamadou Makhtar Cissé as director of Senelec to sort out the ongoing problems at the public utility. Two new electricity projects could help to boost generation capacity. In 2015, China Western Power Industrial signed a deal with Africa Energy to build a new power plant and Senelec is in talks with Qatar’s Nebras Power and Japan’s Mitsui to construct a floating liquefied natural gas plant and a 400MW power station. ●

180 COUNTRY PROFILES

WEST AFRICA

SIERRA LEONE

Ebola’s lingering after effects ➔ Elections could be postponed as parties look for leadership candidates

lthough the hope of an Ebolafree Sierra Leone should at last bring real brightness to the horizon by early 2016, the impact of the recent epidemic on society, the economy and the political situation could continue to be felt for a long time yet. The health service may continue to benefit in the years ahead from the coordinated international assistance that helped ameliorate the Ebola crisis. However, there are warnings that the disease could yet become endemic. Fingers are crossed that the World Health Organisation will be able to declare the country free of the virus as soon as there is a clear period of 42 days without new infections. The economy continues to suffer from a downturn. In late 2015 projected growth was negative, at -21.5% for the year. Despite the suspension of iron ore exports in 2015, the financial situation is relatively stable thanks to inflows relating to the Ebola crisis. Having approved the government’s current economic strategy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended the addition of $66m to the $96m extended credit facility it approved in 2013. The government has established new timelines for better revenue mobilisation and expenditure management. BUSINESS SLOW TO RESUME

In the countryside, the impact of the Ebola outbreak may have passed, but farmers have been short of vital inputs and seed. One of the country’s largest agribusinesscompanies,Switzerland-based Addax Bioenergy, has indefinitely stopped production and has given no indication of when it will restart. The government expects much from China’s Shandong Iron and Steel, which took over iron ore miner African Minerals when it went into administration

in October that it was abandoning its stake in an offshore oil block that it had purchased in 2011 despite finding unknown quantities of oil with an exploration well in 2013. On the political front, the government could well delay municipal elections due in 2016, citing the Ebola outbreak as a reason. There is sure to be a renewal of political activity, with some risks of renewed violence in parts of the country.

GUINEA

Makeni

SIERRA LEONE FREETOWN Kenema

LIBERIA

Atlantic Ocean

100 km

TIMING UNCLEAR

➔ Population: 6.1 million ➔ Population growth: 1.9% ➔ GDP per capita: $675 ➔ Life expectancy: 45.6 ➔ Adult literacy: 48.1% ➔ Inflation: 10.2% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 183 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $439.9m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -11.4% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 65% ➔ Key export: Iron ore ➔ Last change of leader: 2007 ➔ GDP growth (%)

7.1 20.1

-0.7 -23.9

➔ GDP ($bn)

4.9

4.8

4.3

4.6

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The economic recovery will take time as investors weigh up prospects

in late 2014. However, Shandong was slow to start exporting again, not least because of the continuing reluctance of shipping companies to schedule their services to include Sierra Leone. The company has also been struggling with retrenchment issues, having inherited a huge workforce that it now hopes to reduce by around two-thirds. The biggest diamond mining firm, Octea, owned by Israeli businessman Beny Steinmetz, continued to produce and export diamonds throughout the crisis. Steinmetz has been looking to sell the outfit, apparently because of its poor results. Russia’s Lukoil also announced

According to the constitution, presidential and legislative elections should be held no later than February 2018. It had been widely speculated that President Ernest Bai Koroma would seek to amend the constitution and run for a third term. Since the Ebola outbreak, however, the likelihood has grown that he will attempt to extend his mandate by twoyearsandholdelectionsin2019/2020 instead. The constitution, which is under review, allows for parliament to extend the presidency by six months at a time if the country is at war or in a state of emergency. Not only did the Ebola crisis result in a state of emergency, but the electoral commission also now needs more time for voter registration. Politics has been unsettled since Koroma’s March 2015 dismissal of vice-president Samuel Sam-Sumana was badly received in the latter’s eastern home district of Kono. The governing All People’s Congress now seems to lack anyone with a national appeal to lead it to the polls. The opposition Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), meanwhile, is riddled with infighting. The party’s presidential candidate in 2012, Brigadier (retired) Julius Maada Bio, remains its most popular leader. He plans to run again, although many have questioned his ability to win a national contest. A former United Nations undersecretary general, Kandeh Yumkella, has declared his intention to run for the SLPP. His chances at the primaries may be remote, but he is seen as having national appeal – being a northerner in a party dominated by southerners. ●

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WEST AFRICA

COUNTRY 181 PROFILES

TOGO

Five more for Faure ➔ The opposition fights to gain traction, pushes for decentralisation

BENIN

➔ Mining and infrastructure investments are yet to improve livelihoods

Sokodé Lake Volta

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•

NIGERIA

GHANA LOMÉ 200 km

Gulf of Guinea

➔ Population: 6.8 million ➔ Population growth: 2.6% ➔ GDP per capita: $578 ➔ Life expectancy: 56.5 ➔ Adult literacy: 66.6% ➔ Inflation: 1.9% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 166 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $292.1m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -12.2% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 62% ➔ Key export: Gold ➔ Last change of leader: 2005 ➔ GDP growth (%)

5.4

POLITICAL DECENTRALISATION

5.6

TRANSPORT EXPANSION

Other sectors getting a boost are air transportationandroads.ThenewGnassingbé Eyadéma International Airport should begin operations in 2016. Contractors are expanding its freight zone so that it can handle 50,000tn per year instead of the current 15,000tn. The government also increased the share of the 2015 national budget dedicated to road projects. It rose to 111bn CFA francs ($181m) from 85.1bn in 2014. The phosphate and other mining sectors have been growing. ScanTogo Mines opened its limestone mining and clinker production factory at Sika-Condji in March 2015. It has the capacity to produce 1.5m tonnes of clinker – an ingredient in cement – per year and will allow parent company HeidelbergCement to end its clinker imports and lower its costs. A lack of electricity is one obstacle that limits Togo’s economic growth. The

TOGO

➔ GDP ($bn)

4.4

4.6

4.2

4.5

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

lected in April 2015 for a third five-year term with 58.8% of the vote in a contested election, President Faure Gnassingbé campaigned on a platform of improving service delivery to the Togolese population. Such advances will depend on the government earning more revenue from the infrastructure projects and mining projects that it and the private sector have backed over the past few years and investing it effectively. In recent years, though, the country’s economic growth has not translated into better livelihoods. Agriculture and investment in infrastructure are driving growth. In the first half of 2015, ship traffic at Port Autonome de Lomé rose by 48.7% over the same period in 2014 thanks to the investment made in the port by France’s Bolloré. The company completed a third quay in late 2014andsetupatransshipmentterminal.

cation and health, had been protesting for three years about working conditions and the cost of living without a positive response from government. Unions opted to not raise their voices during the 2015 elections but may become more active in the year ahead. The International Monetary Fund is encouraging the Lomé government to benefit from this period of low oil prices to reduce fuel subsidies, creating more space for spending on infrastructure and service delivery. It also recommends that the state make room in the electricity, mining and telecoms industries for more private sector involvement.

government is studying plans for a new thermal power plant, and it signed a deal with China’s Sinohydro for the construction of the 147MW Adjarala Dam on the Mono River. Over the next few years, the government plans to increase its electricity supply to 1,000MW. Although the government has asked the contractors to start as soon as possible to reduce the country’s energy deficit, the dam is unlikely to be operational before late 2018. Togo’s economic growth could slow in 2016 if the government and company bosses are unable to meet workers’ demands for better salaries. Employees of several different sectors, including edu-

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Togo is the only country of the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine that has not developed a policy of decentralisation. It plans to go ahead with one in 2016 in preparation for the country’s first-ever elections that combine legislative, municipal and local polls. The last municipal elections were in 1981, and the opposition continues to call for local elections and institutional and constitutional reforms, which remain the main point of discord between the government and its opponents. The leading opposition parties argue that local polls are essential to build support at the grassroots and have an opportunity to show that they are a viable alternative to the ruling Union pour la République. Sticking to his claims that the Gnassingbégovernmentisillegitimatebecause the 2015 presidential election was not free and fair, Jean-Pierre Fabre’s Alliance Nationale pour le Changement (ANC) has boycotted the new government. In June, the party’s parliamentarians walked out when prime minister Komi Sélom Klassou presented his government’s overall programme to the legislature. The ANC wants the government to adopt presidential term limits and reform the presidential elections by making them two rounds instead of just one but has been unable to mobilise the masses at the polls and in the streets against a system that favours the incumbent. ●

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2015

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Q1-TAR16

the africa

the cycle Breaking

a r ep or w.t hea f ric

54 recopounrtstry

COUNTRY PROFILES

183

NORTH AFRICA CONTENTS Algiers

Atlantic Ocean

Tangiers Oran

Fez Casablanca Rabat Marrakesh

Constantine

184 PEOPLE TO WATCH

Tunis

TUNISIA

Mediterranean Sea

Tripoli

Béchar

186 ALGERIA

Benghazi

Alexandria

187 EGYPT

Cairo

MOROCCO

189 LIBYA

ALGERIA

Tindouf

L I B YA

190 MAURITANIA

EGYPT Aswan

191 MOROCCO 192 SUDAN

Nouadhibou

M A U R I TA N I A

SUDAN

MALI

Nouakchott

NIGER

CHAD

193 TUNISIA ERITREA

Khartoum

SENEGAL

ETHIOPIA CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

SOUTH SUDAN

400 km

The number of people who crossed the Mediterranean to Europe from January to August 2015 was higher than the 2014 yearly total of 219,000 people

CALENDAR 2016

JANUARY Egypt Global Oil & Gas Middle East and North Africa MARCH Tunisia Government presents its 2016-2020 development plan MAY Morocco Fes Festival of World Sacred Music MAY Egypt World Economic Forum on the Middle East and North Africa OCTOBER Mauritania Mining and Oil & Gas Conference NORTH AFRICA 2015 GDP (% of regional total) Egypt

TOTAL

•

N ° 76

•

362.4

4.1% Libya 0.6% Mauritania

288.1 232.2

14.2% Morocco

$727.6bn 11.6% Sudan Algeria

THE AFRICA REPORT

39.4%

NORTH AFRICA POPULATION (millions)

24.1%

D E C E M B E R 2 015 - J A N UA R Y 2 016

6.1% Tunisia

2016

2030

2050

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

310,000

184 COUNTRY PROFILES

NORTH AFRICA

PEOPLE TO WATCH LIBYA

Suing, but not for peace Abdelhakim Belhadj will be in the news in 2016 – both for his case in Britain’s Supreme Court about the country’s role in his rendition and detention in the US-backed ‘War on Terror’, and for his part in Libya’s ongoing conflict. Belhadj and his wife are seeking to sue former British officials due to what the couple says was their illegal seizure and transportation from Thailand to Libya in 2004. He says he was then tortured by Libyan security forces. If the case goes ahead, it would be the first of its kind. Belhadj is also a former Islamist fighter and his Al-Watan party has played a spoiler’s role in the United Nations-mediated talks, which entered a new round in November 2015. He is opposed to the General National Congress government, which is fighting its Tripoli-based rival with the support of General Khalifa Haftar.

EGYPT

Yasmine Yeya Dreams for dresses The Egyptian designer Yasmine Yeya has cut her way to greatness by specialising in bridal gowns. Her bespoke creations in the finest lace and tulle are sophisticated but feminine, and place her among the ranks of international couture wedding dress designers like Vera Wang and Reem Acra. Though she only started her business, Maison Yeya, seven years ago, she has become one of the most sought-after designers in the region, with brides and celebrities flying in to visit her studio in a suburb just north of central Cairo.

MOROCCO

Mbarka Bouaida A young diplomat

JOELLE VASSORT/MAXPPP

Abdelhakim Belhadj

Mbarka Bouaida’s star is rising. Morocco’s deputy foreign minister, she is of Western Saharan origin, and could thus play a crucial role in the government’s negotiations with its international partners on the disputed territory. Bouaida, 39, is negotiating a new security partnership with the European Union to fight terrorism and organised crime. It has also been suggested that she could one day become Morocco’s first female prime minister. Her father, Ali Bouaida, is a businessman and backer of the Rassemblement National des Indépendants. She represented the party in Guelmim in September’s local elections but did not win enough votes to take control of the city.

THE AFRICA REPORT

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N ° 76

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185

TUNISIA

Hafedh Caïd Essebsi

ONS ABID FOR JA

JONATHAN ZIKRY

After a long time in his father’s shadow, Hafedh Caïd Essebsi did not seem to have political ambitions. But in less than two years, he has shaken up political competition with his attempts to take over Nidaa Tounes, the political party of President Béji Caïd Essebsi. He launched an unsuccessful first attempt to restructure the party in April 2014 and was due to hold a party congress in December against the wishes of the hierarchy and with the support of the party’s former members of the ruling Rassemblement Constitutionnel Démocratique. In his manoeuvrings, Hafedh is playing a dangerous game. While causing tensions in Nidaa Tounes, he is also conducting a rapprochement with the Islamists in Ennahda.

EGYPT

Ahmed Abou Hashima The new iron man Ahmed Abou Hashima is the 40-year-old chief executive of the up-and-coming Egyptian Steel Group. His most recent claim to fame is as one of the funders of the most successful new party in the late 2015 parliamentary elections. Mostaqbal Watan (Nation’s Future) poses as a party for the youth, but some analysts argue it is merely a creation of the state. Its leader is President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s protegé Mohamed Badran, and it has other backers, including businessmen who used to support deposed president Hosni Mubarak’s party. Abou Hashima tells Egyptian media he has “no intention of doing politics himself”. He may fear comparison with another steel tycoon-cum-politician, Ahmed Ezz, who served jail time for corruption during the Mubarak era. THE AFRICA REPORT

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N ° 76

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SAAD

A divisive daddy’s boy

ALGERIA

Saïd Bouteflika Presidential brother-in-waiting The younger brother of ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has long held aspirations to hold the top job in El Mouradia, the presidential palace, but succession talk has been blocked by a host of opponents. As Abdelaziz’s health has declined, Saïd has worked hard to build up a network of influential connections. The September sacking of Algeria’s longtime intelligence chief, Major General Mohamed ‘Toufik’ Mediène, got the enthusiastic political gossip mill running overtime with rumours that Saïd engineered the dismissal as part of a strategy to root out his opponents.

186 COUNTRY PROFILES

NORTH AFRICA

ALGERIA

Bickering while the dollars burn ➔ President Bouteflika’s succession is as unclear as ever

he opaque le pouvoir (‘powers that be’) network – the clans traditionally dominated by senior military and security officers, their allies and rivals among senior politicians and, more recently, favoured business leaders – will shape the year ahead. The long generational transition in Algeria’s politics, economy and society reached a dramatic phase when, in mid-September, Département du Renseignement et de la Sécurité chief General Mohammed ‘Toufik’ Mediène left office after more than 25 years of running military intelligence. But it is clearly not the end of that transition in a system where 78-year-old President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has suffered persistent medical issues and where other senior figures, such as 75-year-old deputy defence minister and chief of staff General Ahmed Gaïd Salah, must eventually retire. The ailing Bouteflika might yet see out his fourth mandate, which expires in 2018. There is no obvious successor, even though the prime minister, Abdelmalek Sellal, and his predecessor Ahmed Ouyahia are among a younger generation harbouring ambitions. The Algerian media and chattering classes were riveted by Mediène’s fall, but few have illusions that major changes will follow in the way Algeria is run. Several officers who have been heavily promoted of late are said to be close to Saïd Bouteflika, the president’s younger brother. KEEPING IT IN THE FAMILY?

Saïd Bouteflika has built up a network of allies across the security establishment, business and government, but he is generally an unpopular figure. Previous efforts to give him a government position, led by plans to create the role of vice-president, have failed. However, constitutional reform may return as a

Oran

der in Libya and Tunisia, and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb still active within Algeria. The security forces and political class also have their hands full coping with increasingly frustrated communities in the south, where simmering violence in the ethnically diverse region of Mzab has proved highly problematic. Tensions over the lack of jobs, housing and other services are boiling in the hydrocarbonsproducing regions. A peaceful protest movement that emerged in In Salah during 2014 to oppose national oil company Sonatrach’s fracking plans spread across the south and has the potentail to evolve into a wider protest movement.

Mediterranean Sea

ALGIERS

Constantine TUN.

MOROCCO

ALGERIA

LIBYA

MAURIT.

400 km

MALI NIGER

➔ Population: 39.2 million ➔ Population growth: 1.8% ➔ GDP per capita: $4,345 ➔ Life expectancy: 71 ➔ Adult literacy: 80.2% ➔ Inflation: 4.2% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 93 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $1.5bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -17.7% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 100% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 1999 ➔ GDP growth (%)

2.8

3.8

BRINGING NEW FIELDS ONLINE

3.9

175.1

181.7

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

209.7

213.5

2013

2014

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The oil and gas sector needs to attract major investment to meet rising demand

SPAIN

priority issue, with the focus on assuring the succession. Parallels could be drawn with 1985 and 1986, when falling oil prices and political stagnation fed into a crisis that led to debt rescheduling and a political storm that blew down the one-party state and left the Front Islamique du Salut poised to form an elected government in January 1991. The subsequent military intervention and bloodshed provide one reason why Algerians did not join their neighbours in the Arab Spring of 2011. But Algeria remains an angry place. A jihadist threat persists, with the Islamic State rebels proliferating across the bor-

After its years of corruption crises, Sonatrach is seeking to accelerate the pace of projects and give new encouragement to international oil companies (IOCs) to invest. Discouraged by Algeria’s nationalistic tendencies and perceived unfavourable terms, IOCs have largely avoided recent licensing rounds. Algeria must bring new fields online to maintain the flow of natural gas to Europe later in the decade and also meet rising domestic demand. The International EnergyAgency(IEA)estimatesthatdomestic demand will rise from 35bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 43bcm in 2020. The IEA forecasts exports at a maximum of 40bcm per year by 2020 – well below Sonatrach’s target of 65bcm by 2017. Officials are still talking about 14 new gas fields – to supply up to 42bcm per year – and possibly three new pipelines coming online by 2020. But how Sonatrach will finance such heavy investment is a thorny question for the industry leadership. Lower oil prices mean exports may not exceed $30bn in 2015 – against imports estimated at $50bn – while foreign reserves are burned up to meet unsustainablesocialspending.Thegovernment has responded with a plan to allow Algerians to repatriate funds held abroad. New taxes, dinar devaluations, proposed subsidy cuts and rises in utility bills could add to social tensions in the new year. ●

THE AFRICA REPORT

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N ° 76

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NORTH AFRICA

COUNTRY 187 PROFILES

EGYPT

Sisi’s struggles Alexandria CAIRO

➔ A huge gas discovery offers hope for the hydrocarbon and electricity sectors

SAUDI ARABIA

•

N ° 76

•

LIBYA

In their place stands the need for structural economic reform, an escalation in terrorism threats and a domestic political scene that will soon see a strong comeback of affiliates of the regime of former president Hosni Mubarak. Consequently, the economic forecast for the coming year is not nearly as bright as many officials had hoped it would be.

dS Re

DIM FORECAST

THE AFRICA REPORT

ISRAEL Port Saïd

EGYPT

f 2015 was the year of grand promises and heightened expectations, then 2016 is likely to be the year Egypt has to wrestle with the many bleak realities it has tried to keep at bay. If the last quarter of the year is any indication of things to come, Egypt will begin feeling the painful results of a deep slump in tourism revenue, a steadily weakening local currency, an acute escalation in terrorism threats and an increasingly dissatisfied population suffering the effects of rising prices and a stagnant political climate. Theoutlookwasnotalwaysthisdreary. In the first half of 2015, the situation seemed to be moving in a somewhat promising direction. Egypt was working on a large-scale development project to expand the Suez Canal in the hope of increasing daily traffic and eventually doubling annual revenue. The limited growth prospects for global trade, however, mean that canal revenue is unlikely to rise quickly in the short term. In March, Egypt hosted a lavish economic summit in the glittering Red Sea city of Sharm el-Sheikh that drew international attention along with presidents, dignitaries and business leaders from around the world. Initial contracts worth billions of dollars were signed for major projects (see box) and sizeable pledges were made to support the country’s key economic sectors.

Government spending levels are currently unsustainable, and the fiscal deficit for the first nine months of 2015 was 9.4% of gross domestic product in spite of cuts to energy and other subsidies. The finance ministry was in talks to issue a eurobond worth $1.5bn before the end of the year to raise funds from international markets, but decided to postpone it due to the Chinese-induced worries about the global economy. The government may also restart negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for a new aid package.

Mediterranean Sea

300 km

SUDAN

➔ Population: 82.1 million ➔ Population growth: 1.6% ➔ GDP per capita: $3,571 ➔ Life expectancy: 71.2 ➔ Adult literacy: 75.2% ➔ Inflation: 11% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 110 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $4.8bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -3.7% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 121% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 2014 ➔ GDP growth (%)

SUPER-GIANT GAS FIELD

2.2

4.2

271.4

286.4

293.2 ND

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

2.1 ➔ GDP ($bn)

4.3 336.1

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ President Sisi’s allies were due to win the late 2015 legislative elections

Foreign reserves were around $16.4bn as of October as the Egyptian pound quickly depreciated. After three years of burning through foreign reserves to support the Egyptian pound, the Central Bank has in the past year employed a series of restrictive capital controls – including imposing a cap on dollar deposits at banks – in an attempt to quell a swelling dollar black market, but at a heavy cost for regular business and economic activity. Unemployment, especially among young people, remains high and the government has yet to do much to reverse the high rate of joblessness.

D E C E M B E R 2 015 - J A N UA R Y 2 016

A promising development came in 2015 in the form of the discovery of what could be one of the largest natural gas fields in the world. In early September, Italian energy firm Eni announced the discovery of a super-giant gas field off Egypt’s Mediterranean coast, dubbed the Zohr prospect, which is expected to yield 30trn cubic feet of gas. Egypt’s oil, gas and electricity sectors continue to attract investor interest, and the government awarded four new hydrocarbon exploration permits in October 2015. Tourism, one of the pillars of the economy, has repeatedly suffered severe blows. Just weeks before the launch of a highly anticipated and costly campaign with one of the biggest global agencies to market the tourism industry, tragedy struck as the military mistakenly opened fire on what turned out to be a group of Mexican tourists, killing more than 15, among them Egyptian tour guides. In early November, a Russian passenger flight on the Metrojet airline exploded shortly after taking off from Sharm el-Sheikh, killing all 224 people on board. Egypt’s handling of the crisis has been less than transparent and has further added to the confusion and concern over the safety of what was seen as one of the country’s safe havens. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who came to power in a coup in June 2014, is set to continue the government’s hardline crackdown on Islamist groups and rebels in the Sinai Peninsula. While the most

188 COUNTRY PROFILES

NORTH AFRICA

EGYPT Sisi’s struggles

FOR THE LOVE OF EGYPT

The elections, which began in October and will be completed in December, recorded a lower turnout than most polls Egypt has organised since the 2011 revolution, suggesting popular disengagement from the process. The incoming parliament is expected to be heavy on former regime barons along with supporters of the current leadership. A group of leftist parties

Government subsidy spending

180

Food subsidies (billions of Egyptian pounds) Energy subsidies (billions of Egyptian pounds) Food and energy subsidies as a % of government expenditures

30%

120

20%

10%

0% 0 2009/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 2014/15 (projected)

$16.4bn

The government’s foreign reserves have dropped due to a depreciating pound and Islamist parties boycotted the polls. Sisi had called for a sort of parliament of national unity with all parties joined together. Allies of President Sisi in the For the Love of Egypt coalition of parties led by Major General Sameh Seif Elyazal took all of the 60 seats announced after the first round of voting in October. Elyazal’s bloc says that it will support the government’s agenda and will seek to limit the powers that the 2013 constitution granted to the legislative body, thus strengthening Sisi’s hand. In the election there was a complete absence of Muslim Brotherhood affili-

SOURCE: MINISTRY OF FINANCE 2015

active terrorist group in the Sinai Peninsula has claimed responsibility for the bombing, Egyptian officials were slow to accept that possibility. Evidence has since shown that the cause was a bomb on board, which highlights the glaring security holes at the area’s international airports. Arrests of airport personnel have been made. Politically, the situation has been worsening. The entire cabinet resigned in September after a tumultuous week of corruption allegations surrounding a number of ministers, including minister of agriculture Salah El Din Mahmoud Helal, who was arrested. Late 2015’s parliamentary elections are a key to bringing the country’s revolution to an end. The courts annulled the sitting legislature in 2012 and the country has not had one since then. Sisi has been ruling by decree and the new parliament will have to approve the laws enacted since he came to power.

ates, as most of the group’s leaders are either in prison, standing trial or in exile. One of the latest high-profile arrests of the banned party’s supporters was in October, that of Hassan Malik, a businessman whom the government plans to try for funding the group. There is little room for opposition in the political sphere and even less so in the media. In November, the authorities arrested prominent journalist and career human rights defender Hossam Bahgat for writing an article for the independent website Mada Masr on a secret court case reflecting fractures among the military ranks. His brief detention caused an international outcry. Sisi’s critics argue that his government is more repressive than the Mubarak regime that the revolution overthrew in 2011. Meanwhile, Egypt is heavily involved in the Yemen conflict, while neighbouring Libya remains in crisis. The government sent several hundred troops to Yemen in 2015 to fight the Iran-backed Houthi militants. President Sisi has been calling for an international intervention force in Libya in order to stem the infighting that has taken hold of the country since the Arab Spring. Negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia may have warmed relations between the two countries but have at the same time failed to lead to an agreement over the latter’s plans to build a dam that Egypt fears will be detrimental to its water supply. ●

Early ups and downs for the new capital AT EGYPT’S March economic summit, the government announced plans for a glitzy administrative capital to be built at a cost of more than $45bn. Those plans almost completely fell apart in September. The new capital project hit several snags as Egyptian officials negotiated with Capital City Partners, a United Arab Emirates-based private real

estate investment fund. In the end, officials said the two parties could not agree on a final binding contract. The desert project’s original designs showed towering, glittering skyscrapers strikingly similar to Dubai’s skyline. Now Egypt is going it alone, and has promised to move forward with plans for the capital as one of its top development priorities.

In September then-housing minister Mostafa Madbouly said that work would begin within weeks, but in October it was still at the stage of Cabient approval. A state-owned company would be established to act as the main developer, Madbouly explained. He said that the New Urban Communities Authority, along with other ministries, would THE AFRICA REPORT

•

N ° 76

have a stake in the new company, while different projects would be offered through public-private partnerships. After President al-Sisi led a high-level visit to China with an Egyptian delegation, the government signed a memorandum of understanding with state-owned China State Construction Engineering Corporation. ● •

D E C E M B E R 2 015 - J A N UA R Y 2 016

NORTH AFRICA

COUNTRY 189 PROFILES

LIBYA

The centre cannot hold ➔ The UN-backed peace negotiations are showing few signs of progress TUNISIA

POWER CUTS, UNSTABLE DINAR

Signs of the growing crisis grew throughout 2015, with long delays in the payment of civil service wages, frequent shortages of essential goods and lengthy power cuts. Concerns over the stability of the dinar led to a fall in the exchange rate, which encourages inflation. The year 2016 may well produce a deterioration in all these factors. UNSMIL’s hope is that the threat of catastrophe will impel the leading representatives of the THE AFRICA REPORT

•

N ° 76

•

TRIPOLI

ALGERIA

eace negotiations brokered by the United Nations (UN) Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) will drag on through the early part of next year as the UN’s representative Martin Kobler struggles to build a consensus between representatives of the rival parliaments in Cyrenaica and Tripolitania. With influential constituenciesresistingagenuinecompromise, Libya’s future will be increasingly hedged by deadlines. UNSMIL’s own mandate is set to expire in March 2016. The challenge for the negotiators is to get a genuine peace deal with a functioning and capable unity government before the country goes bankrupt. With oil prices lower than $50 per barrel and output at less than 400,000 barrels per day in late 2015, Libya’s foreign-currency reserves will be exhausted by about mid2017 if spending continues at the current rate. The central bank’s efforts to cut out fraudulent salary claims and the theft of subsidised commodities could save tens of billions of dollars per year, but it must first overcome resistance from the criminal militias who benefit from those policies. Winning this battle is as important as the National Oil Corporation’s efforts to bring production back on-stream,anobjectivealsoundermined by the lack of security.

Mediterranean Sea Benghazi EGYPT

L I B YA

NIGER

CHAD

SUDAN

➔ Population: 6.2 million ➔ Population growth: 0.9% ➔ GDP per capita: $4,753 ➔ Life expectancy: 75.3 ➔ Adult literacy: 91% ➔ Inflation: 8% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 55 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $50m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -62.2% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 165% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 2014 ➔ GDP growth (%)

-13.6

UNLIKELY TO NEGOTIATE

-6.1 2

-24

➔ GDP ($bn)

65.5 2013

41.1 2014

29.7

32.4

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ The conflict is being fuelled by oil theft and other criminal circuits

become just another candidate vying – but failing – to take control. In the Sirte Basin, Benghazi and locations along the coast, the other elements holding out against a peaceful compromise are the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries, the groups that have identified themselves with the Islamic State (IS) rebels and also those under the banner of Ansar al-Sharia, which is associated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. While IS contains a stronger contingent of foreign fighters and Ansar’s members tend to be Libyan, there will be no space for such groups in the proposed re-unified Libya. Conflict between them and the central authorities is therefore inevitable.

300 km

Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HOR) and Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) to compromise. In Cyrenaica, Operation Dignity, led by military chief General Khalifa Haftar, is one of the most likely sticking points in peace talks. Haftar’s replacement as head of the army is a primary precondition for any deal with Tripoli. His preferred solution following the end of the HOR’s mandate in mid-October is the establishment of a military council to restore order. He could create such a body in late 2015 or 2016. However, the HOR or much of it will remain in existence, so the military council would likely

D E C E M B E R 2 015 - J A N UA R Y 2 016

In Tripolitania, the groups least willing to compromise are the militias that form the core of the Libya Dawn movement alliedtotheGNC.Theseareledbyformer Libyan Islamic Fighting Group leader Abdelhakim Belhadj and Salah Badi, who split from Libya Dawn in June 2015 and created the Sumood Front. In Misrata, local leader Abdulrahman Swehli’s group is also unlikely to negotiate. They have all taken an increasingly independent line from GNC president Nouri Abusahmain. One of the factors keeping these armed groups active is continued clandestine support from backers in Qatar, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. The UN’s Kobler is unlikely to get much further with his predecessor’s repeated threats to impose international sanctions on leading figures in the militias. Although there is not enough information to link the organisers of the lucrative businesses of fuel smuggling, people smuggling and claiming false salaries to any particular group or organisation, the individuals running the most lucrative rackets also have an interest in continued conflict. The influence of these groups is important because the corrupt revenue they capture may enable them to keep on fighting after other elements have exhausted their resources. ●

190 COUNTRY PROFILES

NORTH AFRICA

MAURITANIA

Fighting terrorism tops the agenda ➔ Talks between the ruling party and the opposition on democracy have stalled

MOROCCO

igate the slump in 2016. However, its officials say that much more needs to be done to make the economy attractive to the private sector and to reduce unemployment. The government expected to agree with a new programme of support from the IMF in late 2015 or early 2016 in order to help improve its finances.

ALGERIA

LIST OF DEMANDS

The parties of the major opposition umbrella group, the Forum National pour la Démocratie et l’Unité, boycotted the 2014 presidential elections. Negotiations between the opposition and ruling Union pour la République party produced nothing concrete in 2015. The opposition is demanding freedom for political prison-

MALI

Nouadhibou

M A U R I TA N I A

NOUAKCHOTT

MINING PROJECTS FROZEN 300 km

SENEGAL

➔ Population: 3.9 million ➔ Population growth: 2.5% ➔ GDP per capita: $1,262 ➔ Life expectancy: 61.6 ➔ Adult literacy: 52.1% ➔ Inflation: 3.6% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 161 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $492.5m ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -18.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 102% ➔ Key export: Iron ore ➔ Last change of leader: 2008 ➔ GDP growth (%)

5.5

6.4

6.9

4.1

5.2

5.1

4.7

4.8

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

resident Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz is due to step down after the end of his second term in 2019 and is focusing on his legacy of fighting terrorism. There has not been a terrorist attack in the country since 2011 thanks to new security measures and programmes helping religious leaders to fight extremism. So far, the former general has not made as much progress on his other goals: fighting poverty and corruption. The opposition is already voicing concerns about the possibility that Abdel Aziz, who came to power in a coup in August 2008, could attempt to change the constitution to allow him to stay in power. With Abdel Aziz representing the interests of the military and the armed forces having a long history in politics, people like General Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, who is Abdel Aziz’s right-hand man, have been named as potential successors. The relationship between the ruling party and the opposition is set to remain tense. Abdel Aziz has said he is open to dialogue with the country’s political parties, but they voiced doubts about his commitment to open up a political system that centralises power in the presidency. As evidence to support their claims, oppositionists pointed to a mid-2015 draft law on civil society organisations that would require any group to seek government approval before forming.

Atlantic Ocean

➔ The drop in commodity prices has led to the scaling back of projects

ers, more independence and transparency in the electoral process, the end to the repression of peaceful protests and reforms to the Bataillon de la Sécurité Présidentielle. There is much unknown about who from the opposition will run for the presidency in 2019, as several opposition leaders are not eligible due to the constitutional age limit of 75. The government is likely to spend much of 2016 addressing the impact of the global downturn in commodity prices. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) argues that the government’s macroeconomic policies have been sound enough to allow it to nav-

Much of the economy’s hopes depend on natural resources. Iron ore is one of the country’s main exports, and its price has more than halved over the past few years. Glencore has frozen the development of its projects at Askaf and Tasiast. Elsewhere,thegovernmentfacesaninternational arbitration proceeding launched by Indonesian company Tamagot Bumi at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes. The firm claims that the government unlawfully revoked its iron ore mining permits in 2013. Troubles in the mining sector will continue into 2016. Canada’s Kinross, a gold miner, is under investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission for suspect activities in connection to Mauritanian officials. Kinross may sack workers at its Tasiast gold mine due to the low gold price and the high cost of production in Mauritania. Already in 2015, the company cancelled its plans to invest $1.6bn to expand its operations at Tasiast, Mauritania’s principal gold mine. There has been mixed news for Mauritania’s oil and gas sector. In December 2014, Malaysia’s Petronas announced that it is looking to offload its Mauritanian assets. It has not yet found a buyer. On the other hand, in April 2015, US-based KosmosEnergyannouncedacommercial findofnaturalgasatitsAhmeyimoffshore field, pointing to new prospects off the north-western coast of the continent. The government is expecting news in 2016 on the Banda gas fields, abandoned by Irish company Tullow in December 2014. That scuppered plans to produce cheap electricity for local mining companies and to sell the rest to Senegal and Mali. The government is in talks with companies to take over the project. ●

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NORTH AFRICA

COUNTRY 191 PROFILES

MOROCCO

Islamists on the rise ➔ The PJD is confident that it will be the top party in legislative elections

PORTUGAL Atlantic Ocean

➔ Agriculture and automobile production will bolster the economy

KING PLAYS PROGRESSIVE ROLE

On the international front, the Moroccan military has also been participating in the Saudi Arabia-backed intervention in Yemen’s civil war. Morocco hosted United Nations-backed peace talks between the fighting Libyan factions in 2015. For his part, King Mohammed VI has been pushing the government to address issues of poverty and social inequality, suggesting that there could be new initiatives in those domains in the year ahead. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Casablanca

Rabat

Marrakesh CANARY ISLES (Spain)

MOROCCO

400 km

ALGERIA MAURITANIA MALI

➔ Population: 33 million ➔ Population growth: 1.4% ➔ GDP per capita: $3,076 ➔ Life expectancy: 70.9 ➔ Adult literacy: 72.4% ➔ Inflation: 1.5% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 129 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $3.6bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -2.3% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 128% ➔ Key export: Ignition wiring sets ➔ Last change of leader: 1999 ➔ GDP growth (%)

RECORD CEREAL HARVEST

3.7

2.4

4.9

107.2

110

103.1

109.9

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

4.7 ➔ GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2015

fter doing well in the September 2015 local and regional elections, the Islamist Parti de la Justice et du Développement (PJD) is continuing to strengthen its hand. The party won control of nine of the country’s 10 largest cities. Abdelilah Benkirane, the prime minister, has led the PJD’s coalition government with independents and smaller parties since June 2013, and the party looks like it is on course to improve on its 2011 score of 27.1% of the vote when legislative elections take place in 2016. They were the first local elections under the country’s new regional organisation, with the 2011 constitution giving more responsibility to local and regional officials. After polls, the PJD showed that it wasopentomorecompromiseinorderto advanceitspoliticalobjectivesbyforming alliances with other parties where it had not won an absolute majority. The Islamist government has been implementing tough economic reforms, like reducing subsidies and freezing staffing numbers in government, but has been visibly unhurt in its popularity. Elsewhere, the United Nations is pushing for a resolution to the conflict over Western Sahara, and the Moroccan government says that it will stay the course with its plans for limited autonomy forthe region.

with the capacity to produce 90,000 cars per year at a site in Kenitra. Rival French manufacturer Renault already operates in Morocco and has helped to spur the development of local manufacturers in the sector. The state will continue to intervene in the sector to increase the share of manufacturing to gross domestic product (GDP). It had decreased from 19.4% in 1990 to 15.4% in 2012. The government’s perhaps unachievable goal is to increase it to 23% in 2020. Despite the importance of phosphate production and the automobile sector to the economy, agriculture also maintains an important role, especially in employment and controlling inflation.

SPAIN

While the Islamists in government are supporting conservative policies, theking has been playing a progressive role and backed reforms to somewhat liberalise access to abortions in 2015. In the year ahead, the government will push ahead with new projects to improve infrastructure and the economy. One important structural project is the $4.6bn Jorf Lasfar liquefied natural gas terminal, which would be used to provide lower-cost electricity from natural gas imports. The Moroccan automobile sector continues to grow. French car company Peugeot is working on its plans for a plant

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Agriculture accounts for about 15% of GDP, and the government predicted a record harvest of 11m tonnes of cereals for the 2015 season, a more than 64% increase on the previous year’s total. The rise was in part due to good weather and high tariffs on wheat imports. Tourism accounts for about 6% of GDP and the government is worried about the impact that instability and terrorist attacks elsewhere in North Africa are having on the industry. Revenue from the sector dropped about 6% to $2.5bn in the first half of 2015, the government reported. The Moroccan authorities launched a major campaign of arrests of recruiters for the Islamic State rebel group in August 2015. The financial sector should also get a boost in 2016 as the government begins awarding licences for Islamic banks. The industry has been slow to develop, and the government approved a regulatory framework for sharia-compliant financial services in 2014. Moroccan companies are set to continue their push south of the Sahara. In June 2015, insurer Saham and BMCE Bank of Africa announced plans to form a joint venture to develop new projects in other countries in Africa in the financial services sector. King Mohammed VI will continue with his Africa-focused travels, with the country’s businessmen in tow. ●

192 COUNTRY PROFILES

NORTH AFRICA

SUDAN

Bashir bashes on

HAUNTED BY INDICTMENT

Little progress was made in 2015 on ending the conflicts that continue in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Negotiations stuttered, in particular over the government’s desire to negotiate with different rebel movements in separate processes, rather than in one set of talks, as the rebels want. In 2016, Sudanese foreign policy will continue to be shaped by the International Criminal Court indictment of Bashir. He is accused of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in

SAUDI ARABIA

ea dS

ERITREA

KHARTOUM

SUDAN

CAR

SOUTH SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

➔ Population: 38 million ➔ Population growth: 2.1% ➔ GDP per capita: $2,194 ➔ Life expectancy: 62.1 ➔ Adult literacy: 75.9% ➔ Inflation: 19.8% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 166 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $1.3bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -5.8% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 72% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 1989 ➔ GDP growth (%)

3.9

3.6

3.5

DEBT MANAGEMENT

➔ GDP ($bn)

66.6

74.8

84.3

85.2

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

fter backtracking on a promise to step down in 2015, President Omar al-Bashir’s main focus is on regime survival. The opposition boycotted the April 2015 polls, and the African Union, European Union and US criticised the conduct of the vote. Since then, Bashir has been strengthening his hand. New legislation allows himtoreplacetheelectedstategovernors, and Bashir removed those who seemed to be developing a local power base. He sacked Osman Kibir of North Darfur in June, while Abdel Hamid Musa Kasha was sent from East Darfur to White Nile. The new cabinet announced after the April polls was composed of old loyalists and up-and-coming politicians who do not represent a threat to Bashir. Nafie Ali Nafie and Ali Osman Taha, credible potential successors, are now out in the cold. Bakri Hassan Salih, the first vicepresident, is deeply loyal to his old military comrade Bashir and is unlikely to take any action that jeopardises his boss. The ruling party’s relations with the opposition remain poor. The National Dialogue, launched with great fanfare in January 2014, is stumbling on, but with most opposition parties boycotting it.

Port-Sudan

➔ Debt relief and the removal of sanctions are two crucial issues for 2016

as a demotion from his previous job as presidential adviser with close access to Bashir – indicated a willingness to mend the relationship with Western countries. In August 2015, the US special envoy to Sudan, Donald Booth, visited Khartoum after a gap of nearly two years. He met Ghandour, and Sudanese businessmen lobbied him to remove the country’s economic sanctions. That had little immediate impact, but removing economic sanctions and getting out from under the colossal debt burden of more than $45bn will be Sudan’s priorities for 2016.

400 km

EGYPT

LIBYA CHAD

➔ The government has shown no real signs that it is serious about peace

Darfur. The indictment circumscribes where he can travel – many African and Arab countries, and China, allow him to visit while Western countries will not – and impedes Sudan’s hopes of normalising relations with the US and many other countries. Sudan boosted its international profile by sending troops to bolster a Saudibacked intervention force in Yemen in late 2015. The Khartoum government reported a boost in aid from the Saudi government and promises of investment in the agriculture sector. The appointment of Ibrahim Ghandour as foreign minister – which some saw

Both remain unlikely as long as Bashir is in power and the government continues to carry out human rights abuses in conflict zones and against perceived opponents elsewhere. As part of a deal relating to the independence of South Sudan in 2011, Sudan’s creditors have until October 2016 to agree debt relief with Khartoum or else Sudan’s debt will be shared with the Juba government. One bright spot for Sudan in 2015 was the economy. Income from gold helped, with the government predicting a record 76tn produced for the year. Inflation fell in the second half of the yearandtheInternationalMonetaryFund (IMF) predicts that it will hit single digits by 2017. The secession of South Sudan caused Sudan’s inflation to skyrocket due to the south taking about 75% of the oil production. Sudan is now a net importer of oil and the recent drop in prices has helped to lower inflation. The economy still depends heavily on South Sudan’s oil, which Sudan transports through its pipelines, and a payment South Sudan makes to Sudan as compensation for the 2011 secession. If South Sudan regains peace and stability in 2016, it will be of immense benefit to Sudan’s economy. The government is working with the IMF to improve ties with its creditors, and in September it abandoned its wheat import subsidies – saving an estimated $500m per year – at a time of low international prices. ●

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COUNTRY 193 PROFILES

TUNISIA

An unfinished revolution ➔ Nidaa Tounes has an uncomfortable coalition with the Islamists of Ennahda

TUNIS Sousse Sfax Mediterranean

he challenges facing the government in 2016 seem to be greater than the opportunities for success. The ruling coalition in the semi-parliamentary system includes two enemy parties: the centrists of President Béji Caïd Essebsi’s Nidaa Tounes party and the Islamists of Rached Ghannouchi’s Ennahda. In the October parliamentary elections Nidaa Tounes had campaigned against Ennahda. Their relationship was tested in November 2015 when 32 Nidaa Tounes parliamentarians resigned from the party over Essebsi’s son’s attempts to take over the leadership. Essebsi founded the party in 2012 and it is now seemingly divided into the Essebsi camp and the group supporting secretary general Mohsen Marzouk. The November move left Ennahda, which was in government during the post-2011 transitional period, as the largest party in parliament. One of the government’s main priorities for the year ahead is improving security after the March 2015 attack on the Bardo museum in Tunis and the June 2015 murders in Sousse. The authorities expected a drop in tourist arrivals from a predicted 6m to 5m for 2015 and they reported a 60% drop in reservations after the Bardo attack. The government earned about $2bn in tourism revenue in 2014. SECURITY COOPERATION

The government has focused its response to the terrorist attacks almost exclusively on the security front. Leftist politicians are arguing that the government needs a holistic response that attacks the problem at its roots. The unemployment rate is 15.2%, and there are already an estimated 4,000 Tunisians fighting in Syria and Iraq. The government announced that it is building a 168km sand wall on the border with Libya to isolate the counTHE AFRICA REPORT

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Sea

TUNISIA

LIBYA 150 km

➔ Population: 11 million ➔ Population growth: 1.1% ➔ GDP per capita: $3,984 ➔ Life expectancy: 75.9 ➔ Adult literacy: 81.8% ➔ Inflation: 5% ➔ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 90 ➔ Foreign direct investment: $1.1bn ➔ Current account as % of GDP: -8.5% ➔ Mobile phone penetration: 116% ➔ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ➔ Last change of leader: 2014 ➔ GDP growth (%)

2.3

2.3 1

SLOW RECOVERY

➔ GDP ($bn)

48.6

44.3

44.6

2013

2014

2015*

2016*

*Estimation Oct. 2015

➔ Terrorist attacks have hurt the economy, which needs to be reformed

ALGERIA

try from the instability there. It is also reinforcing its control of mosques and increasing its security cooperation with the US and France. The country is continuing its transition after the downfall of former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in the 2011 revolution. Not very much has happened to hold criminals to account. In 2016, the government is due to pass a controversial economic reconciliation law that will allow people involved in certain corrupt deals under the Ben Ali government to avoid prosecution. The Instance Vérité et Dignité, led by Sihem Bensedrine, has also been slow to make any progress.

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With the government committed to economic reforms in order to get help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, it is unable to meet many of the demands of the population. Public-sector workers got another salary boost in late 2015, but the government is cutting fuel subsidies and has not fostered an environment where the economy can easily create jobs. In 2015, there were regular protests in the south and interior of the country about the lack of employment and social services. Those protests also hurt phosphate production, one of the country’s important sources of foreign exchange. There is likely to be more belt tightening ahead, and the government may raise the retirement age from 60 to 62 to make the state pension system more viable. The central bank predicts that it will take about another three years for the economy to recover from the damage done during the 2011 revolution, and the authorities are now in talks for a new programme of IMF aid worth $1.7bn. In September, the government recapitalised the state-run Banque de l’Habitat and Société Tunisienne de Banque with $440m. Both banks lent money to members of the Ben Ali family for dubious projects and have yet to recover from the burden of non-performing loans from that period. President Essebsi says that foreign investment will support the economy’s future growth. The government is working on a new investment law that will include incentives for companies willing to work in less developed parts of the country and those focused on manufacturing for export. But the government will also have to raise funds on the international markets in 2016 and has plans for an international donor conference in March. There, the government will present its 2016-2020 national development strategy that is estimated to cost $61.6bn and will require huge sums from both international investors and the authorities in Tunis. ●

DAY IN THE LIFE EXTRAORDINARY STORIES OF ORDINARY PEOPLE

ROSE SKELTON FOR TAR

194

The voice 38-year-old Ibrahima Soumano follows his ancestral tradition of being a griot. It is as integral to him as being Malian

don’t know when I started to learn to be a griot because I was born one. My father was the head of the organisation of all the griots of Mali, which mediates between ethnic groups, couples, regions, government officials, everything to do with society. From the time we were born, we saw our father take decisions, confront the problems of young people, and we grew up around that. That is transmission. Little by little, that is how we learned. The other name for griot is ‘Djeli’, which means ‘blood’ in Manding. It means that we Djelis run in the body of society, just like blood runs in the biological body. If there is no blood in the body there is no life. If there was no Djeli in society, society would not exist. Sundiata Keita, the founder of the Mali empire, said in 1236: “Griots: be the eyes, the ears, the memory and the mouth of the Mande people, so that the names of important men are not forgotten.” And he said to the Mande people: “Make sure that the griot never cries.” What does that mean? If I am called to assist at a funeral, a baptism or a wedding I don’t get paid a fixed fee. It is all a voluntary service. “The griot must never cry” means “Give something to the griot to eat, drink and be clothed.” People forget everything that the griot does. We bring joy, atmosphere, we intervene at exactly the right moment. He

gives his energy and his time, and he gives it in the service of the people. But, aha! There is a price for that. What I am paid depends on the generosity of the family. I am going to tell you a secret. I once went with a couple to Segou for the marriage of their daughter, and when I got back to Bamako they gave me a car and 3 million CFA francs ($5,200). That was a day when the fishing trip was fruitful! But there are days when I earn nothing. Once I went with a couple to Nara. We had a car accident and I wrote off my car. But I accepted it. This is just to tell you that life is not always rosy. On paper I am polygamous, which is what I signed at the time of marriage. But it is my personal belief that you cannot have two wives at the same time. When you say to a Malian woman that you are going to be monogamous, you will not be at peace. She will get big-headed and she won’t take care of the relationship any more, because there is no more competition. The man regrets having signed this bit of paper. But when you sign polygamous, the woman says: “If I behave well, my husband will stay with me, but if I behave badly, he will go elsewhere.” I am happy when I feel useful to my country. When I negotiate between a couple, or at a wedding, or when I go on the radio to talk about the history of our people, or when people telephone me to ask questions about who we Malians are. I feel useful when I am transmitting my knowledge to the younger generation. Once I was invited to France for a month, but I said, if Malian people need me and I am in France, how can I help them? I would not go to any corner of the earth for a whole month. It is only in Mali where my function as a griot is properly understood. ● Interview by Rose Skelton THE AFRICA REPORT

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