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From backroom to front of house, the dealmakers and kingpins controlling Africaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s biggest economy INTERNATIONAL EDITION

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Who runs Nigeria?

Inside the Zuma system

MUHAMMADU BUHARI LAMIDO SANUSI KEMI ADEOSUN

TB JOSHUA TUKUR YUSUF BURATAI

ADE AYEYEMI

President Kenyatta

CHIMAMANDA NGOZI ADICHIE NASIR AHMAD EL-RUFAI

IBRAHIM MAGU

THE POWER LIST

“We were right”

ALIKO DANGOTE

AKINWUNMI AMBODE

WOLE SOYINKA

THE AFRICA REPORT # 80 - MAY 2016

Kenyatta confident of poll victory after ICC case collapses

From backroom to front of house, the dealmakers and kingpins controlling Africa’s biggest economy GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE SOUTHERN AFRICA EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanz • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € •Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira • Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 40 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

EAST AFRICA EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € • Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira • Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 40 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

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Not to be sold separately

FREE with this issue: a MONEY supplement on finance and investment. Not to be sold separately

06 EDITORIAL The three wise monkeys of Panama 08 LETTERS

MUHAMMADU BUHARI LAMIDO SANUSI KEMI ADEOSUN

T.B. JOSHUA TUKUR YUSUF BURATAI

ADE AYEYEMI

10 THE QUESTION

CHIMAMANDA NGOZI ADICHIE NASIR AHMAD EL-RUFAI

BRIEFING

IBRAHIM MAGU

THE POWER LIST

12 SIGNPOSTS

ALIKO DANGOTE

14 INTERNATIONAL

AKINWUNMI AMBODE

16 PEOPLE 18 CALENDAR 20 OPINION Gado, Kenya’s favourite pen

WOLE SOYINKA

FRONTLINE 22 WHO RUNS NIGERIA? The Power 50 The big beasts who dominate the political, economic and cultural landscape of Africa’s biggest economy

COVER CREDITS: SOUTHERN: GALLO/GETTY IMAGES; EAST AFRICA: NOOR KHAMIS/REUTERS

74 FOO OTBALL Cas shing in on the beautiful game 76 LEA ADERS Gro oupe Loukil chief exe ecutive, Bassem Loukil 78 HAN NNIBAL IN ABIDJAN DOSSIER: INSURANCE Car flood the Kingdom 80 Cars With the recent boom in car ownership comes opportunities for insurance companies operating in Morocco

86 ANALYSIS ‘Green fields’ of insurance growth

34 SOUTH AFRICA Zuma’s great escape Despite fresh scandal tainting the divisive president, his position appears secure

ART & LIFE

40 INTERVIEW Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta

44 OPINION Nana Yaa Ofori-Atta 46 ZANZIBAR Trouble in paradise 47 BENIN An insider’s outsider 47 EGYPT-ITALY Troubled ties

88 LITERATURE ‘Sexuality is omnipresent in the Arab world’ Moroccan author Tahar Ben Jelloun’s new book on infidelity, sexual intimacy and racism in Northern Africa 92 BRIEFS From street traders in Cairo to life beyond jollof rice 94 LIFESTYLE Behind the scenes with 2manysiblings

48 ANANSI

96 TRAVEL Laid-back living in Namibia

COUNTRY FOCUS 51 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO Stay or go? President Kabila is doing everything in his power to avoid holding elections in November •

70 REG GIONAL INTEGRATION Trad de starts at home Afric ca does not trade enough with h itself, despite the real possibilities for greater growth and security. However, things now w seem to be changing

83 INTERVIEW BIMA’s regional manager for Africa, Paddy Partridge

POLITICS

THE AFRICA REPORT

BUSIN NESS

N° 80

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98 DAY IN THE LIFE Fatou Wurie, Sierra Leone Ebola fighter

This issue carries an insert between 66-67 for selected countries

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THE AFRICA REPORT A Groupe Jeune Afrique publication

BY PATRICK SMITH

57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 www.theafricareport.com

The three wise monkeys of Panama

s we all know by now Mossack Fonseca, the law firm that carelessly left 11.5m secret files lying around, employs the three wise monkeys of Panama City: see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. The firm claims it knew the real owners of 204 of the 14,068 companies it incorporated in the African offshore financial centre of the Seychelles. As one of the founding partners, Jürgen Mossack, who must qualify as the tax-haven lawyer from central casting, said: “People forget that a crime has been committed […] our data has been stolen.” Indeed. But let’s talk for a moment about some of the other crimes that have been committed, such as the outflow from Africa each year of more than $60bn in corrupt payments alongside the illegal export of hundreds of millions of dollars of capital through trade mispricing and tax-evasion schemes from Africa and other developing economies. For context, the lobby group Tax Justice Network reckons that some $21trn-$32trn of laundered money, channelled out of the some of the weakest economies in the world, is sitting in offshore entities. In the Mossack Fonseca moment, it is possible in some cases to join the dots between shadow banking and offshore banking to find who is laundering what money for whom and where. It’s of particular interest for Africa, which suffers unduly at the hands of subterranean finance. It’s good news that South Africa and Britain – which warehouses enormous amounts of money stolen from Africa – have announced investigations into all the individuals whose Mossack Fonseca accounts have surfaced.

CHA I R M A N A ND F O UND E R BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED P UB L I S HE R DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com E X E CUT I VE P UB L I S HE R JÉRÔME MILLAN

Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron, politically on the back foot after details of his family’s dealings with Mossack Fonseca emerged, has even proposed that company directors whose employees facilitate tax evasion be liable to criminal prosecution. This could begin to chip away at the impunity enjoyed by the pinstripe army of banks, law firms and company-formation agents who facilitate the financial laundromat. Mossack Fonseca alone was dealing with 14,000 such companSome believe ies, many of which deserve close scrutiny. $21trnMossack Fonseca’s $32trn in data explosion could laundered accelerate momentum for reform. The internamoney may tional financial instibe sitting tutions in Washington DC should put serious in offshore effort into investigatentities ing the amount and exact provenance of stolen capital, given its growing threat to financial stability. More should also be done on the prosecutorial side. So far, the African Union (AU) has been silent on the implications of the Panama Papers exposé, but it should give serious consideration to a people’s continental anti-corruption court. As the Panama Papers exposed the enforced silence over collusion between corrupt companies and governments in many jurisdictions, one way to circumvent this omertà would be to give citizens access to a multi-jurisdictional court for cases of grand corruption. Why not put it at the top of the agenda for the AU summit in June, while the Panama revelations are ringing in our ears? ●

edit editorial@theafricareport.com THE AFRICA REPORT

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M A R K E T I NG & D E VE L O P M E NT ALISON KINGSLEY-HALL E D I T O R I N CHI E F PATRICK SMITH M A NA G I NG E D I T O R NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com A S S I S TA NT E D I T O R CHARLIE HAMILTON A S S O CI AT E E D I T O R MARSHALL VAN VALEN BUS I NE S S E D I T O R MARK ANDERSON E D I T O R I A L A S S I S TA NT OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI RE G IO NA L E D I T O R S CRYSTAL ORDERSON (SOUTHERN AFRICA) BILLIE ADWOA MCTERNAN (GHANA) S UB - E D I T O R ALISON CULLIFORD PERRY LEOPARD P R O O F R E A D I NG KATHLEEN GRAY A RT DI R E CT O R MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER) SAMA DANAN CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) P R O D UCT I O N PHILIPPE MARTIN CHRISTIAN KASONGO RE S EA R CH SYLVIE FOURNIER P HO T O G R A P HY PIERANGÉLIQUE SCHOULER O NL I NE PRINCE OFORI-ATTA SALES SANDRA DROUET Tel: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – Fax: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 sales@theafricareport.com CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 8 The Old Silk Mill Brook Street, Tring Hertfordshire HP23 5EF United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 - $60 - £35 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com D I F CO M INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS - FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19-60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com A D VE RT I S I NG D I R E CT O R NATHALIE GUILLERY WITH JEANNY CHABON RE G IO NA L M A NA G E R S IBIJOKE FABORODE PASCALE LALLEMAND CÉCILE LOUEDEC PRINTER: SIEP 77 - FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0720 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950-4810 THE AFRICA REPORT is published by GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

LETTERS For all your comments, suggestions and queries, please write to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis Rue d’Auteuil - Paris 75016 - France. or editorial@theafricareport.com

NOT ENOUGH POWER FOR AFRICA

Rwanda Focus Stepping out of the neighbours’ shadows

• Nigeria: Can Buhari put out Delta blaze? • Kenyatta/Ruto: End of the Bromance • Power: Green energy is the real deal

hen President Obama announced Power Africa he said the programme would deliver “light where currently there is darkness” [‘The lights come on slowly’, TAR79 Apr 2016]. The goal of doubling the amount of power to the African continent was hailed all over Growth Africa; however, critics argue Power Africa will After the crash, result in the expansion of lucrative energy deals for US corporations. Almost three years on, the lack of progress emphasises the gap between Obama’s lofty aspiration and the challenge of getting things done on a continent often hindered by Washington’s tepid commitment in Africa. The reality is that Africa remains a somewhat lower priority issue for most of the political establishment in Washington. Has Obama failed to maximize his opportunity as America’s first black president to make African development a US priority? You be the judge. Foday Darboe PhD. candidate, Nova Southeastern University, US w w w.t h e a fr ica r e p o r t. c om

N ° 7 9 • A P R I L 2 016

the fightback African leaders try economic nationalism to beat the commodity trap INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK• Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 40 rand(tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

EL NIÑO’S EFFECT ON COCOA CROPS The impact of this year’s El Niño is being felt beyond the grain sector, with West Africa’s cocoa crop also struggling [‘Farmers warned the worst is yet to come’, TAR78 Mar 2016]. This season’s Harmattan – the dry wind that blows between December and March – is reportedly the strongest in 30 years, bringing the main crop production to a standstill. Cocoa deliveries in Côte d’Ivoire – the world’s largest cocoa producer – have gone from 20% ahead of last season in October to 5% behind in late January. Although the slump in output could help drive up international prices, it will put further

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

blocks to which they belonged. A key part of the iROKO and Canal+ deal is that it defies those linguistic borders. The arrival of Netflix has brought new competition. It’s survival of the fittest and this partnership between iROKO and Canal+ may be the first of many, as players will need to venture into new territories to stay alive. The other lesson from this story is that the appetite for African content is growing across the board from the biggest to the smallest screens and that’s a good thing! Serge Noukoué Co-founder & Executive Director, NollywoodWeek Film Festival, Paris

WHO DATAS, WINS

The telecoms market in sub-Saharan Africa is transitioning from voice to pressure on Ghana’s cocoa grinders, data [‘Talk is cheap, but data leads the who are struggling to source way’, TAR77 Feb 2016]. Mobile handset discounted light-crop beans and data revenue across the sub-Saharan are being forced to import beans from Africa region has the potential to neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, eating increase from $5bn in 2014 to $13bn away at their already thin margins. in 2020, driven by growing demand Edward George for internet services, availability of Head of Group Research, Ecobank low-price smartphones and expanding 3G and 4G coverage. The appeal of social media apps such as WhatsApp and Facebook coupled with innovative AFRICAN CONTENT ON mobile data offers continues to BIG AND SMALL SCREENS stimulate data usage among the mass Over the past five years, we have seen market. It’s therefore no wonder telcos an increase in VOD and SVOD across the sub-region are focused on platforms across the African continent rolling out 4G data networks to further [‘Nollywood’s French kiss’, TAR77 Feb maximise this opportunity. Devine Kofiloto 2016], but these platforms have so Senior Analyst, Analysys Mason far been extremely loyal to the linguistic

HOW TO GET YOUR COPY OF THE AFRICA REPORT On sale at your usual outlet. If you experience problems obtaining your copy, please contact your local distributor, as shown below. ETHIOPIA: SHAMA PLC, Aisha Mohammed, +251 11 554 5290, aisham@shamaethiopia.com – GHANA: TM HUDU ENTERPRISE, T. M. Hudu, +233 (0)209 007 620, +233 (0)247 584 290, tmhuduenterprise@gmail.com – KENYA: NATION MEDIA GROUP, Antony Mutunga, +254 (0)20 328 8000, amutunga@ke.nationmedia.com – NIGERIA: NEWSSTAND AGENCIES LTD, Marketing manager, +234 (0) 702 7997 288, newsstand2008@gmail.com – SIERRA LEONE: RAI GERB ENTERPRISES, Mohammad Gerber, +232 (0)336 72 469, raigerbenterprise@ gmail.com – SOUTHERN AFRICA: RNA DISTRIBUTION, Butch Courtney, +27 (0)11 602 9800, butchc@mad.co.za • SUBSCRIPTIONS: RAMSAY MEDIA, Karin Mulder, +27 860 100 204, subs@ramsaymedia.co.za – TANZANIA: MWANANCHI COMMUNICATIONS, Emmanuel J Lyimo, +255 716 500 500, elyimo@tz.nationmedia.com – UGANDA: MONITOR PUBLICATIONS LTD, Micheal Kazinda, +256 (0)702 178 198, mkazinda@ug.nationmedia.com – UNITED KINGDOM: COMAG, Mark Swan, +44 (0)1895 433791, Mark.Swan@comag. co.uk – UNITED STATES & CANADA: LMPI, Sylvain Fournier, +1 514 355 5610, lmpi@lmpi.com – ZAMBIA: BOOKWORLD LTD, Shivani Patel, +260 (0)211 230 606, bookworld@ For other regions go to www.theafricareport.com realtime.zm – ZIMBABWE: PRINT MEDIA DISTRIBUTION, Ian Munn, +263 778 075 147, ianmunn@mweb.co.zw

ADVERTISERS’ INDEX

AIR FRANCE KLM p 2; LIQUID TELECOM p 4-5; DANGOTE GROUP p 7; FORD p 9; ALLIANZ p 11; ANAIM p 15; SAHAM INSURANCE p 19 ; NICO VAN DER MEULEN INT. p 27; CONTOURGLOBAL SA p 39; CHANNELS TV p 49; KEMPINSKI FLEUVE CONGO p 50; ORANGE RDC p 54-55; RAWBANK p 57; DRC PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE p 59-62; CONGO INVEST CONSULTING p 65 ; TAR SUBSCRIPTION p 65; HASSON AFRICA p 68-69; AFRICA RE p 84-85 OIL AND GAS COUNCIL p 95; BILE-AKA BRIZOUA BI & ASSOCIES p 97; DDP OUTDOOR p 97; TAR DIGITAL p 97; CNN p 99; CONGO AIRWAYS p 100

MONEY ADVERTISERS’ INDEX

MCB GROUP p 2; ECOBANK p 6-7; AFRICAN GUARANTEE FUND p 11; TAR SUBSCRIPTION p 15; CELLULANT p 25; SAFARICOM p 27; STANDARD BANK p 28 THE AFRICA REPORT

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THE QUESTION To respond to this month’s Question, visit www.theafricareport.com. You can also find The Africa Report on Facebook and on Twitter @theafricareport. Comments, suggestions and queries can also be sent to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis Rue d’Auteuil, Paris 75016, France or editorial@theafricareport.com

At the Global Education & Skills Forum in Dubai in March 2016, delegates debated whether focusing on STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) to the detriment of arts fully equips children for the world ahead

Should Africa prioritise maths and science education over arts?

Yes OLEY DIBBAWADDA Executive Secretary, Association for the Development of Education in Africa (ADEA)

Africa’s march towards the much-touted ‘Continent of the 21st Century’ presupposes putting in place mechanisms for sustained growth and harnessing its human capital. But is this happening? Evidence on the ground points to the contrary: STEM uptake, a key indicator, is far from adequate. The continent requires robust policies and strategies for effective and efficient STEM implementation that promotes the production of high-end professionals required to manage our resources and add value to our products and services. We are importing ‘technical assistance expertise’ whose interest may not necessarily serve the interest of the African continent. Conflict and instability in some of our rich natural resource countries make it difficult to improve our production sectors. The low volume of patents emanating from the continent point to the dearth of innovators and inventors. We need to promote scientific innovation in our education and research institutions, have more trained, qualified and competent STEM teachers and better-equipped research laboratories. Africa must increase the number of centres of excellence promoting STEM, encourage more women into STEM education and provide incentives to enhance ‘brain gain’. ●

No MIRIAM MASONSESAY Country Director, EducAid, Sierra Leone

In a word, No! Wherever education becomes utilitarian rather than an opportunity for fuller realisation of our humanity, the whole community loses and so does the individual. The drive for education to be more focused on STEM is understandable because it seems to serve the needs of the economy. Poverty is bad; the logic follows that wealth is good so everything must focus on the creation of that wealth. The trouble with this logic is that when money is the driving focus, we lose sight of other values and we lose sight of community. We even start justifying all sorts of inhuman behaviour in the name of defeating poverty. When the only poverty we defeat is our own individual poverty though, we end up passing it on to someone else. In order to genuinely defeat poverty we have to have a ‘we’ not ‘me’ focus. The arts are a humanising force when well taught. Literature: the opening of new horizons, fuelling empathy, developing imagination. History: the opportunity to learn from peoples and civilisations gone before so we can avoid the mistakes of the past, etc. However, more important than a battle between STEM and the arts would be a genuine pursuit of education to make the world a better place. The greatest scientists knew that they needed the arts to make their science human and creative. Let’s avoid the divide and pursue a truly humanising education for Africa as for everywhere else in the world! ●

YOUR VIEWS:

The main reason that we need more focus on STEM than arts in Africa is because of imbalance. […] For Africa to take an economic leap, STEM must be prioritised as a matter of urgency. We need the equivalents of the technology and industrial multinationals, from Africa by Africans, to create jobs and prosperity for our people. Matano WaChao Both are needed. [...] We would not be here without art, we would not be here without technology. As Africans we need to invest in both. It just all depends on whether we have the capital or not. Merhawi Haile Africa should do as it thinks best for the good and progress of Africans!! Verna M. Davis No it should not! Nations need scientists and artists for whole and inclusive development. Yvon A. Edoumou No. We should strike a balance between them. Africans are naturally artistic and we must encourage expression. Bill Dindi I think the former. Maths and science is the answer to our living style, understanding the universe and its future. @Simacoder THE AFRICA REPORT

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BRIEFING

SIGNPOSTS

SOUTH AFRICA Cylists riding near Wellington in the

Western Cape on 16 March in the Absa Cape Epic eightday, 652km mountain-bike race, which ran 19-26 March.

In conjunction with GeoPoll, The Africa Report asked 100 South Africans across the country the question: Who should be the next leader of the ANC?

Cyril Ramaphosa

27% 73%

Nkosazana DlaminiZuma

GeoPoll is the world’s largest mobile surveying platform and sample provider in Africa, enabling companies and organisations to gather quick, accurate and in-depth insights. To conduct your own mobile survey using GeoPoll’s easy-to-use platform visit Research.GeoPoll.com.

ELECTIONS PRESIDENTIAL LIFERS

NIGERIA A screengrab from a

video showing Chibok schoolgirls abducted by Boko Haram in 2014.

ZIMBABWE More than 10,000 supporters of the

opposition party Movement for Democratic Change marched in Harare on 14 April.

LIBYA

Sarraj comes to town

ibya’s new government has made a series of promising steps to consolidate its control over the capital, Tripoli, as world leaders call for more stability in a country that has been overrun by armed groups. The country’s United Nations-backed unity government, which had been operating from Tunisia, relocated to a naval base in Tripoli on 31 March, defying threats from armed militias. Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj hosted Italy’s foreign minister, Paolo Gentiloni, on 12 April at the base, making him the first senior Western official to visit since Sarraj arrived in the capital. The European Union is now debating how best to help the

new government to improve security, as more and more migrants are seeking to arrive in Europe via Libya due to the closure of the Greek-Turkey border. Sarraj’s government has been open to talks with homegrown militias to build up support but has yet to signal if it will take Western countries up on their offers of aid and training, which analysts say could lead to another substantial armed intervention. US armed forces sources say that Islamic State rebels are having difficulties recruiting in Libya because they are seen as a foreign force, but they could get a boost if there is another Western intervention in the country.

Some of Africa’s longest-serving presidents were up for re-election in April. Among them: Djibouti’s Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, Chad’s Idriss Déby and Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo.

Obiang

36 years

Guelleh

17 years

CHINE NOUVELLE/SIPA

Déby

25 years THE AFRICA REPORT

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BRIEFING

CÔTE D’IVOIRE A hotel

CHAD Supporters of President Idriss Déby at a

in Grand Bassam was attacked by Jihadist gunmen on 14 March.

DJIBOUTI A woman votes on 8 April in Djibouti’s

campaign rally in N’Djamena on 8 April. Déby, in power since 1999, is expected to win a fifth term.

presidential election, in which President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh won a fourth term, extending his 17-year rule.

KIM LUDBROOK/EPA; CNN/AFP; JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP; LUC GNAGO/REUTERS; ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP; KARIM LEBHOUR/AFP

“We have a few people in

ENTREPRENEURS WORLD-LEADING WOMEN

this country who live as if they are angels residing in heaven ”

Percentage of women in each country who are either “nascent entrepreneurs” or business owner-managers.

40.7

Westt

13.3 16.7 17.4

South

Africa THE AFRICA REPORT

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exporting countries SOURCE: EIU

Uganda Indonesia

Malawi

19.9

Botswana

Chile

20.4 Angola

19.6 Peru

Philippines

33.6 34.8 35.1

37.4 40.9 41.8

Central

2014 2015 (e) 2016 (f)

25.1

OIL

East

22.9 25.7 26.3

as a % of GDP

Ghana

27.3

SOURCE: WEF

27.6 29 30.8

24 24.7 24 29.1 32.1 20.4

10.4 13.3 14.3

A strong dollar combined with weak commodity prices is putting pressure on many countries’ economic stability. Ghana and Mozambique need IMF help to pay their bills. Analysts are speculating Zambia could be next.

27.9

Ecuador

FINANCE INDEBTED AFRICA

North

African debt

32.6

KHALFAN SAID/AP/SIPA

Tanzanian President John Magufuli announcing large controversial cuts to civil service salaries as part of his drive to even out the pay disparity between high- and low-earning public sector employees.

Nigeria Zambia

TRANSPORT EASIER-RIDING NIGERIA

importing countries

The taxi smartphone application Uber launched operations in Nigeria’s federal capital, Abuja, on 23 March, bringing to 400 the number of cities where the service is active. Uber launched services in Lagos in 2013.

BRIEFING

INTERNATIONAL 1

$2trn

1 2

SAUDI ARABIA

3 5

The Gulf oil monarchy plans to create a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) to reduce its reliance on oil exports. If fully funded, it would be the world’s largest SWF. There are other signs of change: Riyadh will also float public shares of the state oil giant Aramco.

COLOMBIA

Peace in our times?

ADRIA FRUITOS FOR JA

Hopes were high that a long-anticipated peace deal between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) rebels could be agreed after a new round of negotiations were launched on 5 April. A self-imposed 23 March deadline to sign an accord was missed after the sides were unable to agree details of the demobilisation of FARC’s 6,500 guerrillas. The talks to end the half-century-long conflict also come shortly after the government announced it will open discussions with another militant faction, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional, Colombia’s second-largest guerrilla group.

PANAMA

Trouble via tax havens

The 11.5m confidential files leaked from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca – which revealed ploys to avoid tax by some of the world’s most powerful figures and their allies – continue to make waves worldwide. Iceland’s Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson was the first to resign in March, closely followed by Spain’s industry minister José Manuel Soria. Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin faced criticism after the data dump showed his friend, professional cellist Sergei Roldugin, in control of a series of offshore companies. Putin’s friends were revealed to control some $2bn in assets. The documents from Mossack Fonseca revealed that Khulubuse Zuma, a nephew of South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma, was linked to an offshore firm that bought oilfields in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Elsewhere, Kenya’s deputy chief justice Kalpana Rawal was tied to 11 British Virgin Islands companies. Nigeria’s disgraced former Delta State governor James Ibori, who is currently serving a 13-year jail term for fraud in Britain, also featured in the documents, as did DRC President Joseph Kabila’s twin sister Jaynet Désirée Kabila Kyungu and Angola’s oil minister José Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos.

MALAYSIA

Missing billions

After fending off trouble around Saudi Arabian cash in his personal accounts, Prime Minister Najib Razak is fighting off another scandal. The board of state investment fund 1MDB offered to resign in March. The fund, controlled by Razak, made payments totalling $3.5bn to a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund. However, records suggest the cash went to a British Virgin Islands-registered company not connected to the United Arab Emirates. 1MDB said it was a victim of fraud.

BRAZIL

“I will

never resign under any circumstances ”

PLANET PIX/ZUMA-REA

Brazil’s troubled President Dilma Rousseff stood firm despite being impeached amid claims that she manipulated government accounts

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ADVERTORIAL

MINISTRY OF MINES AND GEOLOGY OF THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA Continuing to consolidate the mining sector to make it a real driver of development

n 2013 the mining sector represented over 80% of Guinea’s exports, 19% of state revenues and 12.5% of GDP. With the aim of reviving this strategic sector, the President of the Republic, Prof. Alpha Condé, tasked the government of Mr. Mamady Youla and, in particular, the new Minister of Mines and Geology, Mr. Abdoulaye Magassouba, with completing the reforms underway and boosting mining activities.

The Republic of Guinea derives most of its revenues from its highpotential mining sector. The current process of streamlining its administration and improving its business climate will attract more investors and help develop a profitable relationship with all stakeholders.

Ministry of Mines and Geology of the Republic of Guinea Immeuble OFAB Almamya, Kaloum - BP 295 Conakry, République de Guinée Tel.: (+224) 631416042

The Mining Code enacted in September 2011 and amended in April 2013 is more attractive, modern and efficient. It strengthens transparency, the fight against corruption and the protection of local communities and the environment. The drawing up of the legislation for its implementation is a government priority. The advances made in the context of these reforms include:

Bauxite is one of the minerals least affected by the global decline in mineral prices, contrary to iron ore. For this reason the government has helped seven companies to start or expand their operations. The success of these companies, most of which are “junior” firms, could significantly increase production, which currently stands at 18 million tonnes per year. At the same time, the Ministry of Mines is engaged in discussions for the restructuring of firms in difficulty.

• Reviewing mining titles and agreements signed before 2011: this task began in the second half of 2013 and is expected to end in April. • Modernising the land registry: started in 2014, with the support of the World Bank, to enhance transparency in the management of mining titles by improving access to information, especially online. • Conducting an institutional audit: undertaken in 2015 to set up a structure capable of meeting the new challenges of the Guinean mining sector. The findings of this audit are currently being implemented. • Artisanal mining reforms: an analysis of artisanal gold and diamond mining, which has social and environmental repercussions, is ongoing. In addition to improving artisanal miners’ quality of life, the reform should support the collection of mining revenues. • Capacity building: the Ministry of Mines receives financial assistance from the African Development Bank to improve the skills of its managers in monitoring increasingly complex projects.

Development of major mining projects After the signing and ratification of the investment framework of the Simandou South project in 2014, Guinea is implementing a major mining projects management mechanism. This includes the creation of the Inter-Ministerial Monitoring Committee for Integrated Mining Projects that will serve as a Single Window. With support from the World Bank, the Government has also set up a master plan that aims to pool the use of rail and port infrastructure linked to mining. In addition, it is working on boosting the sector’s competitiveness on the international market, the capacity of local SME/SMIs and the processing of minerals, as well as improving relations between mining companies and communities.

DIFCOM/DF - PHOTOS : DR.

Mr. Abdoulaye Magassouba, Guinea’s Minister of Mines and Geology.

Increasing short-term output: focus on bauxite

BRIEFING

PEOPLE

A REBEL AND A CAUSE 1953 Born in Leer, in Unity State 1984 Completed a PhD in philosophy and strategic planning at Bradford University 2011 Appointed to be the first vice-president of newly independent South Sudan 2013 Sacked by President Salva Kiir, who claimed he was planning a coup 2016 Planned to return to Juba after a peace deal was signed

CORBIS.

SPOTLIGHT

Riek Machar South Sudan’s fragile peace deal depends on how Riek Machar, the vice-president, and his erstwhile enemy, President Salva Kiir, can get along and build a framework for the country’s future THE DELAYED RETURN TO JUBA of Riek Machar, the one-time and current vice-president, cast a shadow over hopes that the country’s humanitarian and economic crises could be on a path to resolution after the signing of peace accords in August 2015. However, Machar’s ability to work with President Salva Kiir is in doubt, and South Sudan’s route to independence and its short and troubled history as a sovereign state

have been shaped by fallings out between Machar and his allies in the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The distrust between Machar and Kiir was a cause of the civil conflict that erupted after soldiers massacred Nuer people in Juba, the capital, following a skirmish between troops in December 2013. Machar, a 63-year-old ethnic Nuer, is a divisive figure. To some of his supporters, he is a demigod. Some

point to a revered Nuer prophecy as proof he is destined to lead the country. But to opponents, particularly Dinka citizens, Machar is an untrustworthy villain for his role in past violence. The list of challenges for the new unity government is long: resettling displaced populations, responding to widespread hunger bordering on famine, demobilising troops and seeking peace and reconciliation. Due to the precipitous drop in oil prices and the fighting between the government and Machar’s rebels, the administration does not have the resources to address any of these huge needs. Machar’s return should help to raise donor confidence and allow the government to attract more finance from the International Monetary Fund and donor governments. But in the meantime, it is likely that further economic deterioration will lead to a continued rise in crime, and could

“We will build an oil pipeline, with or without the Ugandans.”

“We cannot focus only on the military problem in Libya ”

The principal secretary at Kenya’s energy and petroleum ministry, Joseph Njoroge, on the stuttering plans to create a regional pipeline to transport oil to the coast

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warns that failure to resolve the civil war raging across the border will worsen the refugee influx into Europe THE AFRICA REPORT

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Good times

AUGUSTA UWAMANZU-NNA The US-born Nigerian student, who studies at Elmont Memorial High School in Long Island, New York, was offered a place at each of the country’s eight prestigious Ivy League universities.

GEOFFREY KAMWOROR The defending champion from Kenya scooped up gold in the World Half Marathon Championships in Cardiff on 26 March, finishing in 59’10’’. Finishing 26 seconds later was a fellow Kenyan, Bedan Karoki.

VINCENT FOURNIER/JA

choose my successor, not me ” Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame sidesteps the question of when he will step down from power after changes to the constitution made in December allow him to remain until 2034 N° 80

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The Nigerian director of smashhit dramas God is African and Man on Ground won the best director gong at the Africa Magic Viewers Choice Awards for his latest film, the romantic comedy Tell Me Sweet Something.

“The Rwandan people will

•

LUATY BEIRAO The Angolan rapper was among 17 young activists jailed for five and a half years on 28 March for their discussions during a book club meeting. Amnesty International branded the trial a “kangaroo court”.

AKIN OMOTOSO

Jason Patinkin in Juba

THE AFRICA REPORT

JEAN-PIERRE BEMBA The International Criminal Court convicted the DRC’s former vice-president of crimes against humanity and war crimes, including rapes carried out by troops in the Central African Republic in 2002 and 2003.

push militias and generals who are not being paid to loot resources or force some patronage their way. There are also serious concerns about fighting in Juba, because the government has not been transparent about whether it is demilitarising the city. Nuer who are sheltered in a United Nations base in Juba say they will not go home until they see the city is truly safe and the peace deal is being implemented more fully. The peace deal has yet to put an end to violence, with fighting – related to a controversial order by Kiir to redraw state lines based on ethnicity – spreading. Machar amassed a political following when he fell out with Kiir and now faces a choice about what to do with it. Most members of Machar’s SPLM-inOpposition are against the reunification of the SPLM, but Machar supports the idea of reuniting the party. This has already cost him the loyalty of a few key generals, including Peter Gadet. Justice, reparations, and reconciliation form a chapter of the peace agreement, but they do not seem to be getting much attention. The African Union is supposed take the lead on establishing a court to try top-level perpetrators, which may include Machar and Kiir. However, with Machar and Kiir maintaining power, the court may not have the latitude to do its work. In this light, Machar’s role as a leader of the 1991 Bor massacre of thousands of Dinka is important. He apologised and was publicly forgiven but he was never punished, and the Bor massacre has been part of the government’s anti-Machar rhetoric. Observers reported that Machar’s forces again massacred civilians in Bor in 2014. How Machar and Kiir are able to settle their differences will determine whether peace will return to the state of South Sudan. ●

DUNCAN KABUI The group managing director of Kenya’s Chase Bank, along with the chairman, Zafrullah Khan – who have resigned – were questioned by the police after a run on deposits. Chase has been placed under receivership.

Bad times

BRIEFING

CALENDAR

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ON AFRICA 11-13 May KIGALI | RWANDA weforum.org

LEFTY SHIVAMBU/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

VODAFONE GHANA MUSIC AWARDS 7 May ACCRA | GHANA All eyes will be on reggae and dancehall supremo Stonebwoy to see if he can scoop the artiste of the year gong for the second year running at the 17th edition of the Vodafone Ghana Music Awards (VGMA). The internationally acclaimed musician also won the Best International Act: Africa prize at last year’s Black Entertainment Television awards. True to tradition, this year’s VGMA is not without controversy. Multiple-award winning musician and fellow dancehall artiste Shatta Wale’s exclusion from the event has stirred up tensions among his loyal fans. Wale himself responded to the announcement of his disqualification with disdain, questioning the credibility of the organisers, Charterhouse Productions, who are demanding he “complete the process of officially apologising for maligning the VGMA board”. The artist has yet to show any signs of remorse. ghanamusicawards.com

MAY

NEW YORK AFRICAN FILM FESTIVAL 1-30 May NEW YORK | US 50 years of celebrating African film-making. africanfilmny.org

SOUTHERN AFRICA ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE SUMMIT 4-6 May MAPUTO | MOZAMBIQUE “Hastening the pace of investment” is the theme. energynet.co.uk

AFRICA FINANCIAL SERVICES INVESTMENT CONFERENCE 5-6 May LONDON | UK More than 100 expert speakers will be at the fourth annual AFSIC. afsic.net

AFRICA BUSINESS SUMMIT 7 May LONDON | UK Mo Ibrahim gives the keynote speech at the conference, organized by the London Business School Africa Club. conferences.london.edu

MINING COPPERBELT TRADE EXPO & CONFERENCE 12-13 May KITWE | ZAMBIA A meeting for mining service and equipment firms. cbm-tec.com

EAST AFRICACOM 18-19 May NAIROBI | KENYA The ICT event covers mobile and digital communications, broadcasting and mobile money. eaafrica.comworldseries.com

AFDB ANNUAL MEETING OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS 23-27 May LUSAKA | ZAMBIA The focus is on energy and climate change. afdb.org

AIO CONFERENCE & GENERAL ASSEMBLY 8-11 May MARRAKESH | MOROCCO “African Insurance amidst current and emerging challenges” is the theme of this year’s event, organised by the African Insurance Organisation. aio2016.com

NIGERIA INTERNATIONAL BOOK FAIR 9-14 May LAGOS | NIGERIA The NIBF promotes literacy and the book trade in Nigeria. nibfng.org

AFRICA INDEPENDENTS FORUM 25-26 May LONDON | UK Leaders from Africa’s oil and gas industry discuss “New Ventures, Strategies & Deal Flow”. africa-independentsforum.com JUNE

NIGERIA OIL & GAS 13-16 June ABUJA | NIGERIA cwcnog.com

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BRIEFING

OPINION

G Gado

Political cartoonist, Kenya

Politicians will always be angry – it’s how the press reacts that counts A political cartoonist’s job is to tell truth to power. The emperor must be told that he is naked, even if it offends him, even if we are being assured very loudly that he is fully clothed. There will always be attempts to gag the media, such as the Daily Nation’s refusal to renew my contract this year. The crucial point is how the press reacts to political pressure. There have been complaints about my drawings from each administration since the Moi era, but it has got much worse over the past two years. Gains Kenya has made in press freedom must be protected at all costs. Here, then, are a selection of some of my unseen cartoons about the media and politics.

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FRONTLINE MUHAMMADU BUHARI LAMIDO SANUSI KEMI ADEOSUN

T.B. JOSHUA TUKUR YUSUF BURATAI

ADE AYEYEMI

CHIMAMANDA NGOZI ADICHIE NASIR AHMAD EL-RUFAI

IBRAHIM MAGU

THE POWER LIST ALIKO DANGOTE

AKINWUNMI AMBODE

WOLE SOYINKA

Who runs

President Buhari was elected in 2015 on a promise to change how the country runs. The Africa Report takes a look at the dealmakers and kingpins who could support or scupper the new government’s agenda By Leo Lawal in Lagos, Billie McTernan, Nicholas Norbrook and Patrick Smith

ower and politics in Nigeria? “We call it the naira factory,” explains one of the rising political stars from his vantage point on the top floor in the Transcorp Hilton in Abuja. “The political parties are like conglomerates, and their central committees are like boards of directors [...] That leaves us the politicians, the activists [...] We’re like contractors looking for business.” We are speaking during the budget season. That is when, as the government finalises its spending plans, the country’sbiggestbusinesspeoplesetupcamp to lobby for contracts. Usually, there is hardly a hotel room to be had. But this year, the capital is half empty. Although President Muhammadu Buhari’s government has announced the biggest budget in history, he insists it will be a budget to fix the economy, a sort of anticontractors budget. “Good luck with that,” was the young politician’s parting shot when quizzed about Buhari’s chances of success. Like many politicians and business types, he was adamant that “political power grows out of a barrel of oil”. This rephrasing of Mao Zedong’s dictum that “power grows out of the barrel of a gun” is rather too neat when it comes to realities of power in Nigeria. Doubtless, the hundreds of billions of dollars from oil sales have transformed – many say distorted – the economy.

set his face against a devaluation of the naira, from which many of them would benefit. They have retaliated with a kind of corporate strike: shut down the economy until Buhari and his team see things their way. The fundamental economic relations between the patrons and their clients have remained stubbornly consistent for decades. So in a simplistic sense, the answer to “Who runs Nigeria?” is whoever controls the patronage machine. At the apex of the machine are the oligarchs, who use their wealth from land, the ownership of banks or oil blocks or control of sundry trading and import licences to exercise power. The stuff of politics remains the fight for control of patron-client networks in government, in business, in the military, even in religious organisations, the media and universities. Some politicians, like Buhari, may want to reform the networks radically, infuse them with a national rather than personal interest. Others, like those in the Occupy Nigeria

Certainly, oil exports have financed a vastfederalgovernmentwithabicameral legislature and 36 state governments, which wield considerable autonomous power. Abuja, the political capital, gives the appearance of being at the centre of a well-functioning state with a clear separation of powers. But national realities quickly intruded on Abuja as it became a vast political marketplace, where deals are struck and favours done if the price is right. Yes, Buhari benefits from the legitimacy of last year’s election and is seen as having the power and determination to fight corruption and tackle the Boko Haram insurgency in the north-east. ‘Political power grows But the debates are far out of a barrel of oil,’ from resolved on many big economic policy quessays a rising political star tions: Who runs the state movement, want to dismantle the netoil company? How effectively are the works altogether. But most political banks regulated? What should the exoperators seem to be looking for a way change rate be? Who should win big to manage the status quo. construction contracts? For the past decade and a half, Those questions are of pressing Nigeria’s economy has been growing daily interest for the bosses of Nigeria’s patronagenetworks,whoseemconfident at a clip, but the overwhelming majority that they can bend the Buhari governof the rewards have gone to the patron ment to their will in the same way they class and their acolytes. That is what did with President Goodluck Jonathan, Buhari wants to reverse. even if the revenues are more modest. With world oil prices hitting the It is a high-stakes game. Buhari’s floor and economic conditions growanti-corruption force are going after ing harsher for the majority, the risk for Buhariisthathelosespopularsupport. ● several powerful barons, and he has

Nig geria?

FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

THE PRESIDENCY

Presidents, politicians and patrons

igeria’s elaborate and expensive federal system is meant to be both acheckonpowerandasafetyvalve forthemanydiscontentsatthegrassroots. It has not had a great record in either area. In the first stab at an elected federal government, headed by President Shehu Shagari, the military lost patience and oustedhimafterhisfirstterm.Thesecond attempt has proved more durable, mainly because the venality and the oppression of the last military regime under General Sani Abacha is still fresh in many minds. Neither has federal government, with power devolved through states and local government, got a great record in addressing grass-roots grievances. That is clear in different ways in the country’s most underdeveloped areas – the Niger Delta, which has hosted pirates and militant groups, and the north-east, which has been devastated by the Boko Haram insurgency. Government in Nigeria is “detached from the people at every level in the federation,” according to Chidi Odinkalu, a former chairman of the National Human Rights Commission. Power politics in Abuja and the state capitals are dominated by the competition for resources. The federal carveup makes state governorships attractive and powerful beyond their regions: collectively, state governors have taken on presidents and won. But under the current austerity, many are diminished figures reduced to petitioning the federal government to bail them out. State governors also see building up their regional base as preparing for power at the centre, first as ministers and then potentially as president. Relations between the presidency and National Assembly have never been particularly functional or even cordial since the return to civil rule in 1999. Even representatives and senators from Buhari’s party tend to become quite obstructive once they get inside the chamber and open to bids by lobbyists. The seven-year effort to push through reform of the state oil company is a great example of the dysfunction. His All Progressives Congress may have majorities in both chambers of the assembly, but if the legislators want gridlock, then gridlock it will be. ●

Federal Executive Council As the economy, blasted by crashing oil prices, slumps into recession, the ministerial spotlight is on finance minister Kemi Adeosun (pictured). With banking experience in Europe and Lagos, she was commissioner of finance in Ogun State under governor Ibikunle Amosun, another close ally of President Muhammadu Buhari’s. With mounting pressure on the naira and export earnings in free fall, Adeosun spends much time fire-fighting. A former governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Fashola has the mother of all “super-ministries” and is in charge of power, works and housing. His mission is straightforward: take corruption out of public works

procurement; build housing for Nigeria’s poorest; and hardest of all, rescue the faltering privatisation of the electricity system. Also under pressure is Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, the deputy oil minister, who is struggling to tackle national fuel shortages. Extra-busy Kachikwu, a former top legal counsel for ExxonMobil, is also managing director of Nigeria’s state oil company. Unlike the other three, Rotimi Amaechi, a former governor of Rivers State and now transport minister, is a politician to his fingertips. It was his move to take on President Goodluck Jonathan that led to the splintering of the People’s Democratic Party in 2013.

STEPHEN JAFFE/IMF STAFF PHOTO/REUTERS

National Assembly Well aware of their image of being overpaid and underworked, it seems Nigeria’s 109 senators and 251 representatives are taking public relations more seriously. But the political battles in Abuja still seem a million miles from the interests of most of their constituents. A case in point is the battle for the presidency of the senate. Bukola Saraki (pictured), a former governor of Kwara State who defected from the People’s Democratic Party to

the governing All Peoples Congress, is in the seat but faces a slew of claims about inaccuracies in his declaration of assets and tax liabilities. Saraki is the scion of an old political family from north-central Nigeria. Like his father, he is a medical doctor turned successful businessman. His wife, Toyin, owns acres of valuable real estate in Lagos. And in the house of representatives, Yakubu Dogara won the speaker’s job after long hours of horse-trading. Not as charismatic as the last speaker, THE AFRICA REPORT

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CLIFF OWEN/AP/SIPA

FRONTLINE

AFOLABI SOTUNDE/REUTERS

Team Buhari It was a sea change – in both style and content – from the presidency of Goodluck Jonathan when Muhammadu Buhari (pictured) moved into Aso Rock on 31 May 2015. As a former military leader, Buhari carries a quiet authority and is impatient with partisan politics. So the choice of his closest aides has far more to do with life-long friendships than any loyalties to the All Progressives Congress party. The two most important people in the team are chief of staff Abba Kyari and secretary to the federal government Babachir David Lawal. Kyari, an academic economist and former banker, has known Buhari since the 1970s. His brief ranges far and wide, from policy analysis and appointments to running the president’s office. Lawal, an engineer and self-confessed computer geek, has to oversee the workings of all tiers of government as well as liaise with the National Assembly to push through Buhari’s priority policies. Also hand-picked by Buhari was his old associate, Colonel Hammed Ali, who is the new comptroller of customs. Ali’s opening shot was to offer all the directors at customs, which had the reputation as one of the most corrupt government departments, the “opportunity to leave the building” if they were unhappy with his zero-tolerance policy on impropriety.

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The very model of a very modern traditional leader, the emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (pictured) has run commercial banks and won international accolades for his work as central bank governor. He has a very un-emir-like taste for controversy, which included publicly telling President Goodluck Jonathan that more than $20bn in oil revenue had not been paid into the central bank. For that, Jonathan suspended him. Kano’s kingmakers appointed Sanusi as the new emir less than a year later. Rilwan Akiolu is a former policeman who was chosen as oba of Lagos thanks in part to the machinations of Bola Tinubu, who was governor of the state at the time. Akiolu has been a very political oba, campaigning openly for Akinwunmi Ambode, who won last year’s governorship elections. In his 40s, with plenty of business experience, the new ooni of Ife, Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, is another modernising monarch. He wants to pull in investment to make Ife the cultural capital of the Yoruba people and an international destination with high-profile literature, theatre and music festivals. He also wants to attract the Yoruba diaspora of the United States, Brazil and Cuba. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Aminu Tambuwal, who is now governor of Sokoto State, Dogara comes from the north-east and has pledged to win more resources to rebuild the damage wrought by the insurgents there. It is worth watching Dino Melaye, the media-savvy senator for Kogi West who has a penchant for collecting classic cars while running an anti-corruption campaign and, of course, staying in the headlines.

Traditional leaders

FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

STATES

Home to wishes and waste

he 36 state governors assumed an unusual pose last July: going cap in hand to the new president in search of a bailout. They got some of the money they wanted but also a lecture on the need to fix the gross financial mismanagement that has wasted billions of dollars by states and local government authorities. There is the story of the Cross River State’s attempt to build a rival port to

Dubai. Thatplanwasabandonedhalf-way through,aswasthatofJigawaState,which hasone of the shakiest electricity supplies in the country, to build an informationtechnology hub. Katsina State managed to build a school, by mistake, across the border in the neighbouring country of Niger. In contrast, Lagos and Kano have seriously efficient revenue collection servicesandcouldweatherthestormshould the oil price fall to $20 a barrel.

Buhari and his strategists may worry ahead of the 2019 elections at the contours of the new political map. Although the governing All Progressives Congress dominates the south-west, the Middle Belt, the north-west and the north-east, it now controls no states in the oil-producing south-south and south-east. If the oil price moves up again, it would give those opposition states a valuable bargaining chip. ●

Borno State Chairman of the national working committee of the People’s Democratic Party, Ali Modu Sheriff (pictured), is one of the few politicians to have held senior positions in three major parties. A two-term senator and now a two-term governor, Sheriff will be eyeing a job in Abuja after 2019. Sheriff is demanding his state’s share of the ambitious federal project to rebuild communities ravaged by the Boko Haram insurgency.

Nasir el-Rufai (pictured), launched himself into politics under President Olusegun Obasanjo, first as the director of the Bureau of Public Enterprises and then as minister of the federal capital territory. Plain speaking, Rufai does not conceal his contempt for jobbing politicians. His current task as governor of Kaduna – a politically volatile state whose economy has been devastated by years of neglect – is his hardest yet. His plan to regulate preaching in the state, as a means to pre-empt conflict, has managed to unite all faiths against it.

Lagos State

Rivers State

Lagos State governor Akinwunmi Ambode (pictured) is yet another protégé of Bola Tinubu, one of the leaders of the All Progressives Congress. After a rocky start on security and sanitation, Ambode seems to be getting on top of the job. The richest and most populous state in the federation, Lagos has a gross domestic product bigger than many African countries and several US states. It generates more than $1.5bn in tax revenue a year. But the woes of the oil industry, which has its service and supply companies in Lagos, will mean tougher times for the commercial capital.

Kaduna State

Nyesom Wike (pictured) and Rotimi Amaechi – once allies – are now locked in a conflict that is paralysing Rivers State. Wike won the governorship last year on the People’s Democratic Party ticket after a bloody and much-disputed election. He is also now a contender for the PDP leadership but faces a rise in militancy in the region.

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FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

THE RICH

How top tycoons made their fortunes

etween the politicians and the rich, there is considerable overlap. Running a political campaign is extraordinarily expensive in Nigeria, and many a senator is heard complaining, in private, about how much money is needed to buy a seat. Each regime has tended to throw up a set of entrepreneurs whose main skill set is colluding with civil servants to fix prices in a particular market. This is most obvious in the oil sector, where swap deals and shell companies have spirited away trillions of naira over the past few decades, but the phenomenon exists for other commodities, too. Beyond the cabal of professional siphoners, there exists a business class more interested in making money than stealing it. The explosion of the mobile phone business proved that Nigeria’s 180 million-strong market is emerging – something that manufacturers could thrive on if they could just get

the reliable electricity to make manufacturing profitable. Meanwhile, hotels are popping up in secondary towns, not just the state capitals, and agriculture is coming back into vogue. Since the former central bank governor Lamido Sanusi took on corrupt banking practices in 2009, the sector is looking beyond simply financing state budgets – even if their forays into funding local power and oil companies have taken a battering. The current administration is keen on promoting these “productive” capitalists over the traditional rentiers. Cleaner politics and solid roads would be a good place to start.

Town and country Many Nigerians reminisce about the time when factories and farms sprouted across the land – oil and cornering government contracts were not the only game in town. With the rise of Nigerian

consumers, some rich Nigerians are moving back in that direction. Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote (pictured left), opened a $20m tomato processing factory in Kano in March while continuing to work on a $9bn refinery, petrochemicals and fertiliser complex outside of Lagos. He also owns lucrative sugar, flour and cement factories. Dangote is a leading donor to former ruling party and also donates to the current governing party. He has found ways to impress on the Central Bank of Nigeria that it needs to give him access to foreign exchange at official rates, something less-powerful entrepreneurs are struggling to do. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s former presidents seem to do well in agriculture – see Obasanjo Farms or Abdulsalami Abubakar’s Maizube Farms. The impeached governor of Adamawa State, Murtala Nyako, also runs a successful farm. Watching a slow-motion video of Eko Atlantic City emerge from the ocean is THE AFRICA REPORT

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a strangely compelling experience. The brainchild of brothers Ronald and Gilbert Chagoury, it is part of the accelerating property boom in one of Africa’s most expensive cities. The Chagoury brothers’ goal is to pull in corporate headquarters and expensive serviced apartments into the development. Growth here – along with the Lekki Peninsula – will continue to make landowners and real estate moguls rich.

Fuelling profits Building Nigeria’s future will be manna for infrastructure companies like Julius Berger. Its chairman is establishment heavyweight Mutiu Sunmonu, who also ran Shell’s Nigeria wing and sits on the board of Unilever Nigeria. One of Nigeria’s other big infrastructure firms, Bi-Courtney, is run by the irrepressible billionaire Wale Babalakin. Theboomofindigenousoilcompanies has been the story of the last decade in Nigeria, with Wale Tinubu’s Oando so lucrative he moved some of his money withthehelpoftheofficesofPanamanian THE AFRICA REPORT

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lawyers Mossack Fonseca of Panama Papers fame. Others have risen, such as Kola Karim (pictured second from left) of Shoreline and and Austin Avuru of Seplat Petroleum. They will be smarting from the oil price trough, with Oando reporting one of Nigeria’s biggest-ever corporate losses last year. Downstream marketers, some of whom made unseen fortunes from opaque contracts signed with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, will also be feeling the burn. Phillip Ihenacho of Seven Energy hopes that his bet on the gas market is coming good. He says gas deliveries from the company trebled last year, though earnings fell more than 70%. But his other main venture, the Azura power plant in Edo State, has the greatest transformative power and is set to produce 4,500MW by the middle of 2018.

Manna from Heaven Nowhere has the Nigerian gospel of money been heard so clearly as in the church, where pastors have enlisted the entertainment business in the battle

to save souls. This is a lucrative task for which they are not required to pay tax. A Rolex, a private jet and a fleet of luxury sedans are clear signs of God’s favour on earth. Sell-out tours for Nigerian pastors in South Africa can attest to the ability to make money while doing God’s work, a novel Nigerian export. Despite a Synagogue Church of all Nations building collapse in which 89 South Africans were killed, pastor T.B. Joshua (pictured third from left) is still wildly popular in the country. He is estimated by Forbes to be Nigeria’s third-richest pastor, with a net worth of around $10m-$15m. This is positively dwarfed by Bishop David Oyedepo’s estimated net worth of $150m. He started the Living Faith World Outreach Ministry – known as Winners’ Chapel – and regularly sells out tickets for his 50,000-seat church complex in Ota. This is convenient for former President Obasanjo, whose farm is down the road, underlining the fusing of political and religious elites. Closer to the circuits of power today, the Redeemed Church of God boast vice-president Yemi Osinbajo and his spokespersonaspastors.Thepoliticaland business class regularly gather at pastor Enoch Adeboye’s Lagos-based gathering, which offers rich pickings for tithes.

Where the money is To get ahead in Nigeria, best have a bank. Telecoms tycoon Mike Adenuga owns a chunk of Equitorial Trust Bank. Oba Otudeko, who runs the Honeywell conglomerate, owns serious stakes in both First Bank and Ecobank Transnational. Ecobank has become a Nigerian bank in all but headquarters since it swallowed the troubled Oceanic Bank in 2011. After Ecobank posted serious losses in 2015, new chief executive Ade Ayeyemi (pictured right) is battling to turn the ship around. The next generation of banking fortunes will be made by looking to finance Nigeria growth businesses in the energy and manufacturing sectors, or at least that is the hope. With the current oil price and a tough foreignexchange stance from the presidency, many Nigerian bankers have nostalgia for the easier days of the oil boom. ●

FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

THE TALKERS

Loud voices with soft power

he country’s investigative journalists, civil society leaders, trade unionists and lawyers finds ways to be heard amidst a cacophony of contestation. Bespoke coalitions like the Occupy Nigeria movement, which forced the Goodluck Jonathan government to backtrack on a complete removal of fuel subsidies, and the #BringBackOurGirls campaign show the direct ways that regular citizens can project their voices. While the courts overturn crooked election results, the country’s media

offers a day-to-day check on waste and corruption both in the private sector and in government. Despitethebackroomdealingsinpolitics, many conflicts find other means of resolution. Political scientist and then election commission head Attahiru Jega organised a vote in 2015 that many feared would result in widespread violence. Instead, Jega’s organisational skill helped in the peaceful handover from one civilian leader to another, strengthening Nigeria’s institutions rather than its personalities.

Nigeria’s writers, artists and intellectuals form the country’s soft power base, which gives the country greater prominence on the international scene and can shift public debates on crucial topics at home. With a young and rapidly growing population, Nigeria is home to a stable of young and politically engaged authors who highlight the experiences of the marginalised and disenfranchised to make sure that everyone has a better chance of telling their own stories and contesting popular narratives. ●

Trade unions

AKINTUNDE AKINLEYE/REUTERS

Nigeria’s labour unions have used their mobilising capacity as a check on the government. The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), led by Francis Olabode Johnson since 2014, is one of the most powerful unions. Nigeria’s labour unions are a far cry from South Africa’s in terms of their political power, but Ayuba Wabba – who has led a series of healthcare unions – leads the National Labour Congress (NLC) and seeks to protect the rights of workers. The NLC last showed its strength in organising opposition to the removal of fuel subsidies in 2012. The new target of the NLC’s anger is a 45% increase in energy tariffs and the government’s privatisation campaign.

Intellectuals and academics Lawyers Lawyer seemed to be the most common profession among the ministers appointed by Buhari last year. Udoma Udo Udoma, for example, is now Nigeria’s budget minister. Prior to that, he was a senator and founded a law firm initially focused on the oil sector. Nike Ransome-Kuti (pictured), scion of the popular Ransome-Kuti family, is flying the flag of her forebears. She is

a highly regarded corporate lawyer when she is not on the street leading demos. Ayo Obe was a human rights activist in the late 1990s under the brutal Abacha dictatorship. She still practises law, with the International Crisis Group.

Nigeria’s intellectuals and thinkers are influencing policy debates and government decisions. The director of the MacArthur Foundation’s Africa office, Kole Shettima, is directing funding to charities working on health and human rights in Nigeria and across the continent. Nobel Prize-winning playwright Wole Soyinka (pictured) is influential in the arts, launching the popular Aké Festival. Attahiru Jega, who left academia to organise a vote that led to a peaceful

democratic transition in 2015, is now back in the ivory tower, as chancellor of Plateau State University and will continue to put his real-world and theoretical skills to use in research in political science. Another boffin putting his book smarts to good use is the head of the Presidential Advisory Committee against Corruption, law professor Itse Sagay. Sagay will use his chance to have Buhari’s ear to push for legal reform and more accountability.

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Artists and writers Nigeria still manages to punch above its weight on the global cultural scene, whether it is with Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s (pictured, right) gripping stories about the fight for Biafran independence and her essays in support of feminism, or Teju Cole’s (pictured) writings in the New Yorker on terrorism and freedom of speech. Late literary heavyweight Chinua Achebe was not a one-off. Nigerian businesses are sponsoring writing prizes in the hope that more people will be able to make a living from their passion. And while many Nigerians have found a home on the international scene, authors such as Born on a Tuesday writer Elnathan John and poet Dike Chukwumerije are based in Nigeria and writing about their homes. It is not just the writers. Publishers, like decade-old Cassava Republic, founded by Bibi Bakare-Yusuf, are making their marks, too. Much like the filmmakers of Nollywood, most of this progress on the writing scene has been made without the help of government. The current building of networks and connections should also lead to big things to come for Nigeria’s writers.

Civil society Adetokunbo Mumuni, the executive director of the the SocioEconomic Rights and Accountability Project, is the leader of a civil society organisation that is holding Buhari’s feet to the fire over transparency issues. It recently won a landmark court case that obliges the government to reveal which corrupt officials have been secretly returning money to the treasury. Rather than use the courts to strengthen civil society’s capacity to hold the government to account and spur development, Tunji Lardner (pictured, top), and the West African

Across print, radio, TV and digital platforms, Nigeria’s journalists are reporting on corruption and shaping the political debate. In 1995, John Momoh (pictured) founded the most influential news station in Nigeria, Channels TV. Momoh runs the station with his wife Sola, another popular TV face. Also competing for viewers is EbonyLifeTV, founded by Mo Abudu, one of the best networked people in Nigeria. In print, This Day publisher Nduka Ogbaigbena is the president of the Newspaper Proprietors’ Association of Nigeria and has been a fixer in the industry for decades. Many media aides to top politicians in Nigeria are his former reporters. Amongst the business-focused press, Business Day’s Phillip Isakpa has great influence. He is now in management after editing the business daily for almost a decade. Premium Times managing editor Dapo Olorunyomi knows how to tell an interesting tale about corruption. He was chief of staff to Nuhu Ribadu when he was the chairman of the Nigerian anticorruption agency, and his online magazine is one of the media involved in the Panama Papers leak.

Media

ULF ANDERSEN/GETTY IMAGES

THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA? | FRONTLINE

NGO Network are using technology. Some of Nigeria’s religious leaders use their profiles to build communities. Father Matthew Hassan Kukah (pictured, bottom), the Catholic bishop of Sokoto in the mainly Muslim north, supports dialogue

between the faiths. He has also held leadership roles in a government electoral reform commission and in the dialogue between the Ogoni people and Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta. The sultan of Sokoto, Muhammadu Sa’ad Abubakar, put down his arms and military fatigues to become a spiritual leader of the country’s Muslim population. He also leads the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs and preaches in support of peace and unity to counteract Boko Haram’s Islamist militancy and other extremist ideologies.

FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

LAW AND ORDER

Battling Boko Haram and Delta fighters

ith a reputation for toughness honed as an officer in the civil war and a military leader in the 1980s, President Muhammadu Buhari was above all expected to restore security in the country. At best, this remains a work in progress. For Buhari, law and order are umbilically joined: the fight against corruption and establishing the rule of law are necessary conditions for defeating the insurgency in the north-east. Buhari was appalled at the decline in the standards of probity in the armed forces by 2015 and the lack of esprit de corps. Senior officers, in league with politicians and private contractors, were profiting from bogus arms procurement contracts.Withanannualbudgetofsome $6bn-$7bn between 2010 and 2015, the military was decisively losing the battle against the Boko Haram militants who controlled more than 20 local governments at the peak of their power. By investigating those arms procurement contracts and prosecuting the officers involved, Buhari’s government wants to send a message to other senior officers. He has also reorganised the military’s deployments, with two divisions now based in the north-east heartlands of the insurgency. Unquestionably, the military has pushed back Boko Haram, but its failure to retrieve the rebels’ hostages – such as the more than 200 schoolgirls from Chibok – is a blot on his record. So too are living conditions in Adamawa, Borno andYobestates,wheretheinsurgentscan no longer hold territory but can threaten those trying to return to their abandoned homesteads. The people need a beefed up police force with better equipment and working conditions. The other key security zone is the Niger Delta, where militant factions are threateningtoresumearmedoperationsshould the government end the amnesty programme for fighters or withdraw planned laws giving oil-producing states an extra share of export revenue and company profits. Buhari’s strategy is to launch substantive development initiatives to tackle underlying socioeconomic discontents in the Delta and in the north-east as well as to boost deployments of soldiers. ●

Judges, managers and regulators Courts, commissions and regulators are part of the government’s rule-of-law drive. One of the youngest lawyers to take on the positions of attorney general and justice minister, Abubakar Malami played a leading role in talks that brought the now ruling coalition into being in 2013. Chief Justice Mahmud Mohammed is a muchawarded judge, now dealing with the deluge of high-level anti-corruption cases that the Buhari government is pursuing. Experienced investigator Ibrahim Magu (pictured) has

Securocrats At the apex of the security system is General (retired) Babagana Monguno, who as national security adviser works closely with the president. They share plans for modernising and expanding the country’s armed forces to deal with growing regional threats. At the age of 55, the chief of army staff, Lieutenant General Tukur Yusuf Buratai, still has a legendary fitness routine and previously commanded a West African regional force, which includes Chad and Cameroon, against the Boko Haram insurgents. He has faced a storm of criticism over the army’s clashes with Shia Muslims in Kaduna. Rear Admiral Ibok Ete Ekwe Iba joined the navy in 1979, moving up the ranks to become chief executive officer of Navy Holdings Limited before being appointed as chief of naval staff. The new head of the presidential amnesty programme, General (retired) Paul Boroh formerly played a leading role in the United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone. From Bayelsa, Boroh knows the region well but faces a new generation of militant leaders. Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar from Bauchi State was previously the chief of administration in the Nigerian Air Force before his appointment as chief of air staff. One of the most talented pilots in the force, he will be expanding the air war against Boko Haram. A veteran intelligence officer at 63, Lawal Musa Daura (pictured), has the task as director of the State Security Service to improve operational standards and re-professionalise his agent corps. He hails from President Buhari’s home town of Daura. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Independent National Electoral Commission, is an expert on guerrilla warfare and counterterrorism, and taught at the National Defence Academy. He will need that military background: the first elections under his leadership – in Kogi and Rivers states – saw violence and malpractice. Umar Garba Danbatta has taken over the chairmanship of the Nigerian Communications Commission in the middle of its biggest legal clash to date, as it deals with the fallout from the $5bn fine, later cut by about $1.5bn, for South Africa’s telecom operator MTN.

Rebels

replaced Ibrahim Lamorde as chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) after it had languished during the Goodluck Jonathan administration. The future of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), which was meant to focus more on corporate crime while the EFCC nabbed the politicians, is uncertain. Ekpo Nta, whose mandate as ICPC chairman has a year to run, will be involved in discussions about the reshaping of the agency. Mahmood Yakubu, the new chairman of the

Ambassador Ayo Oke is a veteran of the National Intelligence Agency and now its director general. He is also an expert in foreign intelligence. The inspector general of police, Solomon Arase, is due to retire this year, but the government is likely to tap his academic and practical expertise given the dire state of the country’s policing operations. THE AFRICA REPORT

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It was a rare unambiguous success for Nigeria’s military in its battle against Islamist militant groups in the north-east when they arrested Khalid alBarnawi, one of the leaders of the Ansaru group in Lokoja. Barnawi split with Boko Haram over a money dispute and its failure to attack high-profile Western targets. He has been linked to the suicide bombing of a UN office in Abuja five years ago. He cultivated links with Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, which has organised bombings in Mali, Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire in recent months. His erstwhile co-fighter and head of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, remains at large, although some reports claim he has been badly wounded. Boko Haram’s new strategy of hit-and-run terrorist attacks, often using young girls as suicide bombers,

has proved brutally effective. Shekau and the group’s other leaders have forged links with the Islamic State rebels in the region, with some sharing of weapons and training. For now, Boko Haram prefers terrorist attacks to any sustained engagement with Nigeria’s military. Those calling for an amnesty programme in the north-east used to cite the deals struck with Niger Delta militants such as Government Tompolo, who was awarded a sheaf of security contracts. He is now on the run, wanted on corruption charges. Another prominent militant, Mujahid Dokubo Asari has also become discreet. In their place is a new generation of fighters, such as Solomon Ndigbara (aka Osama bin Laden or Solo), who are building up forces for what they think will be a new fight with the government in the Delta.

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SOUTH AFRICA

Zumaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s great

First, it was the country that split over President Zuma. Now it is his own party – the African National Congress – that is fighting over whether he should go now or stick it out until national elections in 2019

By Crystal Orderson in Cape Town and Patrick Smith

aunching the African National Congress (ANC) manifesto at Nelson Mandela Stadium in Port Elizabeth on 16 April, President Jacob Zuma was desperate to fire up the party’s base for critical local elections in August. This time, it will take more than strugglesongs andpromisesofmorejobs and less corruption, as most of the 46,000 seats in the stadium were empty. Zuma’s political fate will depend on the ANC’s electoral performance, particularly in the big municipalities such as Port Elizabeth, Johannesburg and Tshwane/Pretoria. Zuma’s opponents within the ANC and its affiliates are mobilising. After a March Constitutional Court decision that said Zuma violated the constitution, dozens of ANC luminaries called for his resignation, and many trade union leaders are backing them. Zwelinzima Vavi, formerly general secretary of the Congress of South African Trade Unions, is leading a new workers’ federation alongside civic groups in a mass action campaign to drive Zuma from the presidency.

escape

THEANA BREUGEM/FOTO24/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

INTO THE STREET

“It’s the people on the streets that must lead the campaign to get the president out of office,” Vavi tells The Africa Report. “South Africa might be in a crisis, but we are not a banana republic. No one is above the law.” Fighting alongside Vavi is Dinga Sikwebu of the National Union of Metalworkers. He tells The Africa Report: “People are feeling the pain. Anger and urgency are growing. Political parties have failed. The people have to reclaim our hard-won democracy from those who feed on it for self-interest.” For many, the possibility of Zuma staying in power until mid-2019 looks surreal. Journalists have produced unrelenting claims of Zuma’s links to corruption in the government’s 1999 multi-billion-dollar arms deal, personal impropriety and mismanagement. For the most part, he has responded to these claims with a dismissive laugh but kept the ruling ANC overwhelmingly on his side. Two issues changed that last year: the use of $20m of public funds to give Zuma’s Nkandla homestead an upgrade and revelations of the political and business ties

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between Zuma and the Gupta family of Indian businessmen. There are three important dates in this unfolding drama: 9 December 2015, when Zuma fired experienced finance minister Nhlanhla Nene, replacing him with Des Van Rooyen, a junior member of parliament with no experience of economic policy making (later that month Van Rooyen was replaced by a former holder of the post, Pravin Gordhan); 31 March 2016, when the Constitutional Court ruled that Zuma violated the constitution when he disregarded the public protector’s call for him to repay the public money spent on Nkandla; and 2 August 2016, when local elections could pile pressure on Zuma if the ANC polls below 60%. FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL

For many ANC activists, the Nene case and the Constitutional Court judgement marked the end of the road. In a unanimous ruling, Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng was clear: “The president failed to uphold and defend the constitution as the supreme law of the land.” With that, the leadership fight within the ANC became deadly serious, according to some veteran militants who worked with Zuma in exile. “Zuma is a well-trained intelligence cadre,” said one such militant, “he always plans one move ahead. I wouldn’t underestimate his survival plan […] whatever it may be.” That plan is getting its ultimate test this year as the ANC factions gear up for a battle that is as much about ideas, policies, political culture, class and ethnicity as it is Zuma personally. At the start of April, thousands of black fans at the Cape Town Jazz Festival booed arts minister Nathi Mthethwa off the stage when he tried to address the crowd. There were cries of “Hamba!” (meaning “go” in both Zulu and Xhosa) when Mthethwa appeared and he beat a hasty retreat. Some revellers told The Africa Report that they had given up on Zuma after the Constitutional Court ruling a few days earlier. None seemed convinced by his meandering television speech on 1 April, where he apologised for the “confusion” over the funding for Nkandla while insisting he had never “knowingly or deliberately” violated the constitution. Undaunted by calls for his resignation, Zuma headed that weekend to KwaZuluNatal to address his traditional political base. It was about as far – in class terms –

INTERVIEW

Mavuso Msimang Chairman, Corruption Watch

President Zuma should go The ANC party veteran says Zuma should resign in the interest of the country and party

eople from all sides are criticising President Jacob Zuma after the Constitutional Court ruled in late March that he violated the constitution and must pay back state funds used to improve his Nkandla homestead. Mavuso Msimang, a fighter during apartheid with the African National Congress (ANC)undergroundmilitarywing, Umkhonto we Sizwe, says Zuma should resign. Msimang served as director general of the department of home affairs from 2007 to 2010, chairs the Oliver and Adelaide Tambo Foundation and remains a committed ANC member.

The Constitutional Court’s judgement on Nkandla is good for South Africa TAR: Has President Jacob Zuma become a liability for the ANC? MAVUSO MSIMANG: Some members of the National Executive Committee (NEC) are compromised. If you have scandals like the ones the president is involved in [...], we have lost the ethical compass of the country. If you point out that, you must point out that there are other

as possible from Cape Town, with its middle-class jazz lovers. Thousands of supporters, many of them desperately poor, sported yellow ANC T-shirts with Zuma’s face on them and welcomed him with cheers and ululations. Between the two factions is ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe, one of the party’s savviest operators. Fiercely defending the ANC against oppositionists

people in the ANC that are also not ethical. For instance, ANC chairperson Baleka Mbete and the story of her [buying her] driving licence. It raises questions of the ethics of people within the NEC. We have lost people because they are involved in questionable tenders and corruption. Zuma is not good for the ANC. There are patronage networks within the ANC. People have to sing for their supper. The removal of Zuma is a threat to their income and survival. Imagine: there are 72 cabinet portfolios drawn from the NEC and National Working Committee. Those people are employed by the president, and they will toe the line. The composition of the NEC is such that it’s stacked with Zuma supporters. They are weak and are paid by Zuma. He will survive and get their support. How is that affecting security? I have seen how unstable the security establishment has been. Somebody is destabilising the justice system so that it remains loyal to one person. I am saying I am worried, and one doesn’t know the instability and strange actions that are taking place.

andcriticsinthemedia,Mantasheinsists: “We will not play to the gallery.” Never personally close to Zuma, Mantashe has become expert in distancing himself without directly criticising him. After deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas announced in March that he had been offered the post of finance minister by thepolitically connected Gupta family, Mantashe went on the offensive, telling THE AFRICA REPORT

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A CRITICAL LOYALIST 1967 Served as communications director for Umkhonto we Sizwe 1977 Hired by the World Food Programme

1997 Appointed chief executive of South Africa National Parks

Will Zuma step down? I don’t think many people will continue as before. I talk to ANC people, and many feel embarrassed by the party and its support for the president about Nkandla. It gets to a point where some of them say “no more.” If I was the president, I would say, “I will go, and leave me in peace,” in the interest of the party. I am not sure he will do it, but he has the power to do it. Can civil society pressure Zuma to go? Civil society has power. Look at the Fees Must Fall movement. I know that government panicked. It was unbelievable. Within two weeks, there was no fee increment. That is power. There is a momentum. [...] People want

change. [On the Nkandla case] former Umkhonto We Sizwe commanders have come out, senior ANC people have, the foundations of [Ahmed] Kathrada and [Oliver] Tambo have come out. We must not underestimate the power of the movement. How can the ANC deal with the crisis? I really think the party can be saved. Only the ANC has brought change to the country and empowered black people. The ANC has brought change and the EconomicFreedomFighters(EFF)and the Democratic Alliance (DA) just talk. The EFF is [a party of] dreamers. Who finances them? There are some good and less corrupt people in the DA, but they cannot govern. I have faith in the ANC, if we can

news outlet Bloomberg: “We need to deal with this; it will generate into a mafia state if this goes on.” For his part, Zuma went into his default denial mode: “I’m in charge. There is no minister who was ever appointed by the Guptas.” Yet the list of ANC luminaries coming out – directly or indirectly – to tell Zuma to go is lengthening by the day: former presidents Thabo Mbeki and THE AFRICA REPORT

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2003 Became the director of the State Information Technology Agency 2011 Appointed chief executive of the Oliver and Adelaide Tambo Foundation 1 April 2016 Named chairman of the board of Corruption Watch, an NGO

Kgalema Motlanthe; former finance minister Trevor Manuel; former deputy secretary general of the ANC Cheryl Carolus; former security minister Sydney Mufamadi; former intelligence minister Ronnie Kasrils; former Gauteng premier MbhazimaShilowa;formerhealthminister Barbara Hogan; former ANC treasurer Mathews Phosa; and Nelson Mandela’s former lawyer, George Bizos.

get over Zuma. The departure of Zuma would give the party the opportunity to revive itself, [but] there is a lot of cleaning up to do. There are so many other ANC leaders linked to the Gupta family. Are you worried about the state of politics? We are speaking at a time where [the Constitutional Court has] passed a seminal judgement which is so good for South Africa and demonstrates the separation of powers. The case in point is with the president who, as a result of [his reaction to the] public protector’s report on Nkandla in 2014, has been found to have violated the constitution. How are factional politics affecting the ANC? We must understand how Jacob Zuma came to power. People say they did not see much of a programme [from Zuma]. Zuma’s close relationship with the left and unions was based on getting [former President Thabo] Mbeki out. Around the time he came to power, the differences within the ANC led to the emergence of factions: the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions and others felt strongly, and lobbied for Zuma and he won overwhelmingly. But this was the beginning of a curse at the organisation, and the system of electing people to the NEC laid itself open to abuse. Today on the NEC there are only a few people who came in on their own. The rest are all [there due to] factional politics. You have many othersunknowns,andyouwonder how they got there. ● Interview by C.O.

Some ANC branches in Gauteng have openly called for Zuma’s exit, and branches in other provinces have echoed them. From Gauteng’s Alexandra Township, culture minister Paul Mashatile has discretely pushed for change at the top. David Makhura, Gauteng’s premier, is more forthright: “The ANC must take heed and listen to ordinary voices and not only those of its leaders. The Con-

POLITICS

stitutional Court outcome represents a setback for the party […] there’s no value in denialism.” But the calls have not yet built momentum for rival candidates, says Keith Gottschalk, a political scientist at the University of the Western Cape: “Inside the ANC, Zuma supporters have always been able to outvote rivals who support [deputy president Cyril] Ramaphosa. They are ruthless gatekeepers. They are vicious, and there are serious lapses of internal democracy.” More formidable still are Zuma’s securocrats. State security Minister David Mahlobo received a “political education” in China and told journalists this year that his spies will not listen to their phone calls “without a reason”. Many senior ANC officials say that their cellphones are being

Divid

• ANC Comm mitttee - National Execuutive C - National Workking Committteee - Women's Leaggue - Youth League • Trade unions Party • South African Communist Pa • Provincial governments

monitored for political purposes. Major General Berning Mthandazo Ntlemeza, director of the Hawks anti-corruption unit, has been working with Tom Moyane (TAR 79, April 2016), another Zuma ally, to harass finance minister Pravin Gordhan, who unearthed evidence of massive malfeasance when he was head of the South African Revenue Service. General Siphiwe Nyanda, a former defence minister and commander of the ANC’s armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe, leads a group of liberation fighters who published a critical memorandum calling for a special conference of the ANC. A few days after it was published in March, armed robbers hijacked Nyanda and stole his Porsche. For now, the chances of the ANC convening a special conference to vote out

uma

Pro Z

• The Zuma family • Security services • Parastatal P t t l companies i s • The Gupta business family • ‘Tenderpreneurs’ • Russia’s President Vladimir Putin

Zumaareslim.Petitionerswouldneedthe supportofatleastfiveprovinces.Themost likely supporters are Gauteng, Northern and Western Cape, Limpopo and Eastern Cape, but they want to wait until after the August elections. And in a vote of ANC national delegates, Zuma would rely on his bigger numbers in KwaZulu-Natal, together with the so-called Premier League provinces – Mpumalanga, Northwest and Free State – to defeat any hostile vote. “Zuma is on his way out,” says Tony Ehrenreich, regional secretary of the Western Cape region of the Congress of South African Trade Unions. “The longer he stays, [the more] he is a liability for the ANC.” Although growing numbers in the party agree with Ehrenreich, few see the endgame as quick or easy. ●

uma

Anti Z

• Civvil society • Meedia • Big Big bus b sinesss • Opposittion parrties (EFFF and DA))

ZUMA: A DIVIDED HOUSE DYNAMIC DANGER It is the African National Congress above all that will decide Zuma’s future, and its leaders are making some tough electoral calculations. The dominant view at the top of the ANC is that Zuma’s relationship with the Gupta family and the Constitutional Court judgement have sunk his presidency, but trying to get rid of him before the local elections would prove too divisive and damaging. If the results are as bad as many in the ANC fear, then the party’s regions and branches will step up calls for a conference to vote out Zuma, although loyalist provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal will fiercely oppose this.

SYSTEM As head of the ANC’s underground structures and then its intelligence department, Zuma gained experience in surveillance and planning. With close allies at the top – security minister David Mahlobo, police minister Nkosinathi Nhleko and head of the Hawks anti-corruption unit Berning Ntlemeza – Zuma has a tight grip on the securocrats. The Gupta business family remains a powerful business ally and defender of Zuma’s planned multi-billion-dollar deal between Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation and the Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa. Zuma also has key allies in the revenue service and the electoral commission.

NOISE The anti-Zuma activists are split into several, sometimes antagonistic groupings. Such rivalries could prove useful for Zuma’s defenders, who claim there is a right-wing and foreign-funded conspiracy to unseat him. Some trade unionists and civic activists are close to the ANC, although there are plans for yet another new leftist party. The leftists in the Economic Freedom Fighters and the rightists in the Democratic Alliance are uneasy bedfellows. New media are overwhelmingly anti-Zuma. but his allies in the New Age paper, the Independent group and the South African Broadcasting Corporation are pushing back. THE AFRICA REPORT

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How to thrive in 2016 • Market share up for grabs in great shake-out • Oil companies double down on costs • Cash injection into telecoms infrastructure

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 7 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 35 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

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The CEOs

who bring it home Think global, invest local: backing continental projects

Growth

After the crash,

the fightback African leaders try economic nationalism to beat the commodity trap

From left to right: Gavin Dalgleish, MD of SA agribusiness ILLOVO Ismaïl Douiri, Co-CEO ATTIJARIWAFA Bank Ade Ayeyemi, Group CEO ECOBANK Tabitha Karanja, Kenyan CEO of Keroche Breweries

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 40 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 35 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS• Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

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POLITICS

INTERVIEW

Uhuru Kenyatta

President of Kenya

We have been vindicated In the crimes against humanity cases over political violence in 2007-08, the ICC withdrew charges against the president in 2015 and dropped the case against his deputy

here was a look of satisfaction in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s eyes as he sat down to talk to The Africa Report in Paris that could be attributed to more than three days of intense hospitality on a state visit to the French capital. “We have been vindicated,” was Kenyatta’s opening line. On the previous day, 5 April, a panel of three judges at the International Criminal Court had announced that it was dropping its case against William Ruto, Kenyatta’s deputy, and Joshua arap Sang, a radio journalist. The court’s announcement was clearly a relief to Kenyatta, who faces a tough election next year. Keeping Ruto, the current political champion of the Kalenjin in the Rift Valley, on side is critical for the ruling coalition’s chances ahead of the polls. Ruto and Sang had been charged with crimes against humanity linked to the post-election violence in Kenya in 2007-08, in which 1,200 people were killed and another 600,000 were attacked and chased from their homes. A year and a half ago, Fatou Bensouda, the court’s prosecutor, announced she was withdrawing chargesofcrimesagainsthumanity

against Kenyatta, who was one of the other four indicted by the court for planning the election violence The judges’ April decision followed seven years of bitter claims and counter-claims between the court’s prosecutors and the Kenyan government. Arguing that Kenya, and Africa more widely, was being singled out by the court, Kenyatta’s government launched an international campaign against the ICC, winning support from South Africa and other members of the African Union (AU). Chile Eboe-Osuji, the Nigerian chief judge at the ICC, lambasted the Kenyan government, saying said that Ruto’s case had been a mistrial because of a “troubling incidence of witness interference andintolerablepoliticalmeddling”. He also rejected the AU’s calls for heads of state to have immunity from prosecution as a means “to protect the ruling class”. Neither side in this prolonged legal fight can regard the matter as closed. Serious failures at the court have emerged: in the standards of its investigations and the weakness of its witness protection measures. Equally, the Kenya case showed the importance of the political climate – Eboe-Osuji noted “how difficult conviction is against high-level figures.”

A LIFE IN POLITICS 26 October 1961 Born in Nairobi 2003 Elected to parliament to represent Gatundu South 2009 Became finance minister in President Mwai Kibaki’s government 9 April 2013 Took up office as president of Kenya 5 December 2014 ICC prosecutors withdrew charges of crimes against humanity

TAR : Are you happy that the ICC decided that there is not enough evidence to prosecute your deputy, William Ruto? UHURU KENYATTA : Yes, I am. I think it vindicates the position that we have held for the last seven years: the fact that we were innocent. But more than that, I think it proves Kenya’s own standing in terms of respect for international laws and the rule of law. We have not run away from justice. The court, through its own processes, has finally come to the conclusion – that we have always maintained – that we had no case to answer because we never committed any crime. The judges have accused the Kenyan government of political meddling. What is your reaction to that? THE AFRICA REPORT

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DAMIEN GRENON FOR TAR

them and what to say. Because at that stage, the two opposing sides – President Mwai Kibaki’s group and Raila Odinga’s group – were trying to accuse each other of starting the violence. So they were creating this thing, but more as a political contest as opposed to a legal process. So they can’t turn around and say they were intimidated. All that happened was that people came out and said: “The truth of the matter is we were told to say such and such, and we want to now come out clearly.” Like the one witness who said: “I’ve never been to Ruto’s house, but I was told to say so.”

This is the argument they keep using. How do you say political interference when we as a country have cooperated with them from the very first day that they read out thenames.They’vehadtheiroffices in Nairobi; they’ve never been interfered with; their investigators havebeenthere.Thecourt-appointed lawyers for the victims were thereoperatingfreely–nobodyhas everharassedthem–movinginand out of the country wherever they wanted to go without a problem. What greater cooperation would you want? Anything they ever requestedforthatwaslegallyallowed throughourownlegalsystem,itwas always provided to them. Do you think the witnesses were properly protected? I believe so. All the witnesses they wanted. A lot of the witnesses, THE AFRICA REPORT

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by the way, were based right here in Europe. The majority were. But their families weren’t in Europe, of course. You must always remember that even those who changed their statements, the key point

[This] was a politically instigated case, as opposed to a case that was legally instituted they all put forward was that they were induced in the beginning, which has always been our argument. That it was a politically instigated case, as opposed to a case that was legally instituted. And what happened is a lot of those witnesses eventually came out. They even pointed out who coached them and who trained

You have said that the ICC failed the victims of the election violence. Are they now going to get justice from Kenya’s judicial system? How many people have been prosecuted for this violence within Kenya so far? The record is there. I don’t have the exact numbers on me, but for those who committed crimes – be it arson, be it murder – we have a very clear record of individuals who participated, who were taken before a judicial process and the action taken against them and court rulings and judgements made. And people served time, be it for arson, be it for theft, be it for murder. What about the responsibility of the political leaders? We’ve been arguing that a lot of what happened was spontaneous action, and people taking advantage of a chaotic situation. People were taking action against each other because there was no leadership to tell people “stop it.” It was only when it started to really escalate that the political leaders immediately entered the fray and started to urge their supporters to calm down. That’s when it ended. What about compensation for the victims? When is that going to be resolved? My government, especially, has been through a process of relocating and helping individuals

POLITICS

resettle back to their places, rebuilding houses for people, resettling the IDB [internally displaced people] and there is not a single internally displaced person who was living in a camp that has not been resettled in one way or another. The problem that we are now facing is, there were many people who were also IDB as a result of previous riots and we have said even they are entitled to the same [treatment]. So is Kenya still saying Africa must leave the ICC? Rather than [the ICC] being a court that will seek justice and end impunity, it was being manipulated by certain elements. That went against the very essence of the Rome Statute. That is why you see many African countries saying: “This looks like a court that is targeting Africans that is being used by other forces to influence Africans.”

court are the ones who tell the court what to do. That wasn’t the basis of setting up the court. You’re facing an election next year. Are you worried that the lessons of the violence may be forgotten? I don’t think Kenyans have forgotten, and that is why in 2010 we gave ourselves a new constitution to deal with the fundamentals. William and I have made it very clear that we must do everything to ensure that Kenya never goes back [to violence]. We cannot continue to play confrontational politics. Let our politics be issue-based. We, on our side of the coalition, are pushing that particular agenda. Are your opponents pushing it as well? The opponents may not be pushing it, but what we are saying is that we will do everything to ensure that Kenya does not repeat those mistakes. I believe that that is ultimately the wish of the majority. You cannot continue to use spiteful words either against communities or against religions. We now have institutions created by a constitution that we mutually

But the court has worked for you. The judges have considered the evidence and dropped the prosecution. Seven years down the road and the reason being – and this was the big reason for anger – that it is clear, you can’t prosecute somebody on the basis of Our position always has been a newspaper reform the ICC if you want article. And our continued participation this was our argument, agreed upon. Let the institutions you are not basing your case on any material evidence. You’re do their work. You campaign on the basis of your ideology, on your basing it on circumstantial evidence, hearsay. vision, on your policies and programmes that you plan. Let the So you are no longer saying Kenyan people be free to decide for themselves who is best suited Africa leave the ICC but the ICC must be reformed? to lead the country. Our position has always been reform the ICC if you want our And who do you think they will continued participation. We decide on? have put the same case before I think they will decide on me, the Security Council – that this hopefully. And if they don’t, we organisation requires reform. And will go home peacefully. if we’re not going to get the kind of reforms that we need, we are Back to your farm? going to pull out. Let us form our Absolutely. ● Interview by own court that is going to actuPatrick Smith and ally handle these issues because Mark Anderson in Paris it looks like those who pay the

Out of court and onto the campaign trail The drama at the International Criminal Court may be over, but national politics remains bitterly divided in the run-up to next year’s elections

t was a powerful symbol of the political chasm in the country on 16 April when the ruling Jubilee party organised a grand thanksgiving rally at the Afraha Stadium in Nakuru. Some 150km away in Kibera, Nairobi, the opposition Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) organised its own rally, accusing the Jubilee government of ignoring the victims of political violence and demanding compensation for the more than 600,000 driven from their homes almost a decade ago. Dominating proceedings in Nakuru were President Uhuru Kenyatta and the deputy president, William Ruto. Alongside them were the other four prominent Kenyans charged by the International Criminal Court (ICC) with organising violence after the disputed 2007 elections: former minister Henry Kosgey, police chief Mohammed Hussein Ali, ambassador Francis Muthaura and radio show host Joshua arap Sang. The stadium was packed with 20,000 well-wishers, ostensibly giving thanks for the failure of the ICC’s cases against the six men. JUBILEE REJUVENATED

It looked more like a political rally, showing the convening power of the Jubilee team and strength of the alliance between Kenyatta and Ruto, and their respective support bases among the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin ethnic groups. Some of the worst violence after the 2007 elections had raged between these two groups in the Rift Valley. Kariuki Muthengi and Robert Opiyo, representatives of the victims of political violence, were brought onto the podium alongside the top politicians and produced a list of displaced people yet to be resettled. Ruto told them: “Victims of the post-election violence are our friends. We went to Sunday THE AFRICA REPORT

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SIMON MAINA/AFP

Uhuru Kenyatta (right) and William Ruto in October 2014 in Nairobi, after the beginning of their ICC trial

school with them […] Many have been resettled, and the process will come to a conclusion very soon.” In Kibera, opposition politicians such as James Orengo and Johnson Muthama produced a much angrier set of victims who demanded compensation and dismissed the arguments of the ICC indictees that the violence was a spontaneous reaction to a disputed election. “What happened in Naivasha was planned, where families from different parts of the country were killed. Listening to Jubilee, you get the impression that the 1,200 lives we lost do not matter,” said Orengo. Kenyan lawyer Makau Mutua, who advised anti-corruption campaigner John Githongo in his battles with the government, said: “Celebrating the ICC ruling is unseemly because it looks like dancing on the graves of the victims.” Mutua also predicted Ruto’s barbs against civil society–forbackinghisprosecutionatthe ICC – may be a prelude to a crackdown on activists ahead of next year’s elections. That electoral race is well underway, withKenyatta’sJubileepartyandOdinga’s CORD chasing votes and the support of the smaller parties that could hold the balance of power. On the current political map, Jubilee holds 23 out of Kenya’s 47 counties and CORD holds 20. The Amani National Congress holds one, and three more counties remain in contention. Although Odinga’s CORD looks solid in his home base of Nyanza, with strong backing in areas such as Busia and THE AFRICA REPORT

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Bungoma, the opposition faces a far more serious contest in Coast Province, where Jubilee has been campaigning strongly. Kenyatta spent the first month of the year there, and he launched a slew of new development projects. But the coast remains volatile. CORD is helped by local resentment at the wealthy up-country business people, seen as close to Kenyatta and his allies, whohaveextensivelandholdingsaround Mombasa. But there is also a growing grass-roots movement against both the main political coalitions for their failure

to deal effectively with rising unemployment and poor public services. Added into that mix are some local separatist organisations demanding independence for the coastal region, as well as jihadi proselytisers who accuse the government and police of serial human rights abuses and targeted killings of militants. Indeed, local peace groups in Mombasa are already urging the two major political coalitions to cool down tensions in what they fear could be a major flashpoint during the voting next year. ● P.S.

Graft, votes and whistleblowers SOME OPPOSITION PARLIAMENTARIANS took the role of whistleblowers literally when President Uhuru Kenyatta went to parliament to deliver his third state of the nation address on 31 March. The chamber erupted when the opposition legislators started to blow whistles during Kenyatta’s speech, claiming they had been barred from getting across their points about corruption. Members of parliament from the ruling Jubilee Party were outraged. Responding to critics, opposition leader Raila Odinga replied: “The president is not God.” Certainly, the opposition is right to bet that corruption will be a leading issue in next year’s elections. Philip Kinisu, the new chairman of the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission, explained: “Kenya’s budget is now approaching KSh2trn shillings ($19.8bn); a third of it is being wasted through corruption.” More dramatically, the chief justice, Willy Mutunga, spoke of a “bandit economy” controlled by “Al Capone-style criminals”. More problematic for opposition activists is that not all the blame for the graft can be dumped at the door of Kenyatta’s government. Some of the worst contract inflation and diversion of state funds is happening in Kenya’s 47 county governments, 20 of which are controlled by Odinga’s Coalition for Reform and Democracy. Civic activists are calling for greater powers and resources for anti-corruption institutions. ● P.S.

POLITICS

OPINION

Na ana Yaa Ofori-Atta Politic cal analyst

Multiple arrested development

hanaian children of a certain type are strongly encouraged to learn to read with phonetics. A teacher patrols the desks and wields a ruler, with a nasty educational gleam of intent in the eye. In unison and on command, children square their shoulders and take the alphabet pronunciation head on: ABCDEFGH – with a suitable rolling Ghanaian accent – ‘Ahhh, Beeerh, Keerh, Derrh, Ehhh, Ffu Ggg, Hhhii’ resounds. Fortunately in these days of development, the behemoth known as the Ghana Education Service (GES) supervises and approves the printing of local references to help modern children conjugate. The book ‘prize’ goes this year to the Natural Science for Primary School text. The author’s explanation of the common use of the human head is “for carrying load”. Before load shedding, we had commercial vehicles that were overloaded. Load on head, adding possibly to thick skulls and stiff necks, ups the development quotient considerably. The GES and the education ministry have great form. In 2015, after suffering in silence, a rather precious junior high school teacher publicly petitioned the ministry to withdraw a series of science textbooks replete with grammatical, factual and typographical errors. At the time, the books had only been in use for three years. Perhaps the ‘printer’s devil’ had struck and nobody noticed; or somebody noticed and couldn’t or wouldn’t raise an objection; or simply, maybe nobody cared.

a head for heights – or, it seems, for the fundamentals of bookkeeping. During his term in office, inflation surged – 18.5% at the last check. Currency depreciation also ballooned after his bumbling intervention in the forex market to shore up the cedi gave him a nosebleed. Wampah’s early bath, 24 hours before April Fool’s Day, is significant, as were his stated reasons for jumping ship. He left before parliamentary and presidential elections due later this year to enable a new team to settle down. The last time we held elections, the Electoral Commission spent 878% more than its approved

The explanation for our national turgidity lies in the early withdrawal method. Our collective intention as a country is to make a great fuss and then peel off to make another great fuss, with predictably low returns. No follow up or delivery is required. The science textbooks are probably still in use, but who knows, who cares? That precocious teacher was probably transferred far up-country to Busunu. More early withdrawal: our central bank governor resigned in late March – via Reuters news agency, as one does – five months before the end of his contract. Henry Kofi Wampah’s meteoric career unfortunately did not help him to develop THE AFRICA REPORT

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budget, and 17 ministries and their departments followed this admirable lead. In his 2016 State of the Nation address, President John Mahama told Parliament: “Situations where huge deficits are created in our budget after every election must stop. I will exercise strict fiscal discipline in this election year [...] in order that we can transform this negative narrative.” If oil prices had held, the government could have plugged its deficits. They did not and alack, we find ourselves about to issue a fifth eurobond to keep the wolves at bay. As part of his farewell, Wampah begrudgingly announced that the country’s debt as of December 2015 was $25.6bn, or 72.9% of Ghana’s gross domestic product. So the headlines continue: Fiscal and external deficits are vulnerable to shocks, and Ghana’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating remains a B with a negative outlook. Wampah’s departure has nothing to do with the arrest of his son-in-law in Ghana in early March. The charges of multimillion-pound drug trafficking in the United Kingdom against David McDermott, a British citizen married to Wampah’s daughter, is another case of the early with-

drawal method. The gentleman in question had been living happily in Accra it seems, for years. Cynics suggest that it took the security agencies a while to download an email from Interpol, read it – with all that phonetics training – and then find McDermott. Those cynics have been shamed by the recent burst of energy from the Bureau of National Investigations (BNI) which has been, as we say in Ghana, ‘up and doing’.

Wampah’s meteoric career did not give him a head for heights – or bookkeeping It issued a press statement in which it talked about the “bereau”, and cue the usual titters. However, the BNI’s arrest of three retired South African police officers with valid work visas, spelt out their intent perfectly. The three were detained in March during training exercises with the security detail of the minority party’s presidential candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo. The news of the ‘arrest’ was carefully stage managed and in apparent defiance of a court order granting the three bail. The BNI kept the ‘alleged terrorists’ incommunicado for the Easter bank holiday weekend. They were deported, and the legal case against them quietly dropped. A week after this flaccid slide back into impunity, the national security adviser, a very colourful alhaji, ordered the arrest of his nosy neighbour. Peering over Alhaji Baba Kamara’s wall, the neighbour took pictures of an impressive number of 4x4s being spraypainted in the ruling party’s colours. Matters were aggravated when the neighbour, it seems, shared the pictures and videos of the ongoing makeover on social media. The vehicles, made-in-India Mahindras, will presumably soon be launched at a colourful ceremony as campaign vehicles for the ruling party ... Cue the lawyers and civil rights activists. Fortunately, communications minister Edward Omane Boamah was quick on the draw. He has also been ‘double hatting’ as information minister as well. Recently, he has become a serial work philanderer, taking on a third job as head of presidential communications as well. It will take the multi-faceted Boamah no time to discover why a high-ranking politician appointed by the president to hold national office, continues to run a private business. The alhaji said that his personal property houses, albeit temporarily, cars – procured at what cost by whom is not the issue – that were being resprayed in the National Democratic Congress’s party colours. He will naturally be in charge of securing the ballot box for the next election – from a Mahindra. Repeat after me: “Ahhh, Beeerh, Keerh, Derh, Ehhh Ffu Ggg, Hhhii.” ●

THE AFRICA REPORT

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ANALYSIS

Ali Mohamed Shein at his presidential swearing-in ceremony in 2010

ZANZIBAR

Trouble in paradise

spill over into violence. Zitto Kabwe, leader of the opposition party Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT-Wazalendo), tells The Africa Report: “Zanzibar is boiling. There is no legitimate government in Zanzibar, and I am worried will go to the streets.” Tensions in Zanzibar are simmering after people Presidential candidate Hamad said that the CUF plans to the 20 March presidential elections submit a petition to the International Criminal Court. Says Ally Saleh, a CUF shadow minister: “We will also present our case anzania’s governing Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) to international human rights organisations. We shall stop at won a rerun of presidential elections on 20 March in nothing in our quest for justice.’’ The CUF is also calling for a semi-autonomous Zanzibar, granting another term to new constitution and for the ZEC to become an independent the incumbent Ali Mohamed Shein, who has been in power body. Zanzibar’s president Shein dismissed Hamad’s claims since 2010. Zanzibar’s main opposition party, the Civic United in a press conference after the election: “[Hamad] has been Front (CUF), boycotted the vote and said that the result of the doing that since 1995, and nothing has happened. I am used original presidential and parliamentary polls on 25 October to what they are saying.’’ 2015 should have been upheld. Running practically unopInternational observers condemned Tanzania’s governing posed, Shein claimed 91.4% of the votes. party for cancelling the results of the October vote. As a result European Union (EU) observers criticised the decision to of that decision, as well as the CUF’s boycott, the US-based Millennium Challenge Corporation said the March polls were annul last year’s votes, saying they were “conducted in a generally peaceful and organised manner”. The CUF’s presidential “neither inclusive nor representative” and withdrew a $473m candidate, Seif Sharif Hamad, claimed victory on 26 October, grant designed to boost electricity provision in the country. A saying he had received 52.8% of the vote. But on 28 October, group of diplomats and ambassadors from 15 European and North American countries as well as the European Union said Jecha Salim Jecha, chairman of the Zanzibar Electoral Comthe elections had been held “without a mutually acceptable mission (ZEC), announced that the poll had been annulled because of “gross violations”. After the annulment, CUF spokesand negotiated solution to the current political impasse”. man Ismail Jussa told reporters: “It’s an attempt to try and The group of diplomats said that Zanzibaris had been disrupt the process, and my feeling is that they peaceful throughout the political crisis: “We just want to create chaos.” commend once again the population of ZanAfter the March election, the CUF called for zibar for having exercised calm and restraint widespread passive resistance to the new govthroughout this process, and call on all parties ernment and is planning a campaign of civil and their supporters to restart the national reScore of the CCM’s disobedience. It has also called for travel bans conciliation process to find an inclusive, suscandidate in the on Zanzibar’s new government and for the withtainable and peaceful resolution.” troubled March 2016 drawal of development aid. The stalemate in Zanzibar shows few signs of presidential abating. “Any olive branch will have to be extenTanzanian politicians are worried that the election in Zanzibar tension created by the political stand-off could ded by the union government on the mainland,”

91.4%

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XINHUA/ZUMA/REA

POLITICS

says Nick Branson, a senior researcher at the Africa Research Institute. “This would have to include a significant offer, such as relaunching the aborted constitutional reform process, with the promise of greater autonomy for Zanzibar.” ● Syriacus Buguzi in Dar es Salaam and Mark Anderson

BENIN

An insider’s outsider The country’s new president has to deal with a series of old challenges

Talon won 65.4% of the vote in Benin’s presidential poll THE AFRICA REPORT

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crushing 65.4% of votes cast in favour of businessman Patrice Talon – who campaigned on a platform attacking the corruption and inertiaof the government of President Thomas Boni Yayi – won him the most powerful job in Benin. Having never held office, Talon campaigned as something of an outsider. But for all his claims, Talon got rich in part by winning state contracts. He has financed political campaigns, and his wheeling and dealing have continued. Talon and Boni Yayi’s relationship has been the subject of great intrigue over the years. Talon won a series of lucrative deals until falling out with the then president and being the subject of poisoning accusations and lawsuits in Benin, France and Switzerland. Despite the two saying that they have buried the hatchet, some of Talon’s first acts in government were to undo decrees that Boni Yayi had signed as his administration was winding down and to stop the hiring of public servants recruited during his predecessor’s tenure. Channelling US presidential contender Donald Trump’s campaign, the Beninese election featured a colourful businessman and his rival, Lionel Zinsou, who faced racist and xenophobic attacks for his long career in France and his Franco-Beninese heritage. Talonisnowtryingtobalance his new-found allies who helped to propel him to victory against Zinsou. Talon came in second place, with 24.7%, in the first round but rallied the third- and fourth-placed runners – businessman Sébastien Ajavon and former regional banker Abdoulaye Bio Tchané – to his side. Talon has welcomed the erstwhile allies of the man whose legacy he ran against. Naming his new government in April, Talon chose Pascal Irénée Koupaki –

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Boni Yayi’s former prime minister – as secretary general in the presidency. Sacca Lafia, an energy minister under the previous government, is now Talon’s interior minister. Talon may not be able to avoid some of the problems of his predecessor. Like Boni Yayi, Talon ran as an independent without formal party backing. While the presidency holds outsized political power, an opposition-controlled legislature can cause problems if Talon is unable to keep his friends on side. His platform’s main policy was to liberalise Benin’s economy in order to strengthen economic growth. How far he can go remains in doubt. The government earns much of its revenue from customs at the Cotonou port – which is riven with corruption and is often subject to leadership changes – and so cutting down on fees to boost regional trade could hurt a crucial sector of the economy. In terms of other critical infrastructure, Talon has inherited a dispute between French conglomerate Bolloré andBeninese-GaboneseinvestorSamuelDossouaboutwhowill build a rail line to link Cotonou to Niamey, the capital of Niger. Supporters cheered “King of Cotton” Talon’s business experience and he will need it to turn around the performance of another motor of the economy, the cotton sector. Production has dropped drastically since the state privatised a cotton parastatal – that Talon himself bought up – in 2011. Without state incentives, farmers may continue to abandon the white stuff in favour of other crops. Farmers and importers are looking to the businessman-in-chief to see how the country can turn around its economy, which is dependent on Nigeria, and make up for the failed promises of development from the previous candidates who promised rapid improvements. ● Honoré Banda

EGYPT/ITALY

Troubled ties The brutal murder of an Italian student in Cairo has shaken Rome

n early February, the semi-naked corpse of an Italian citizen, Giulio Regeni, was found dumped by the side of a road in Cairo. He had been researching labour unions in Egypt, one of the last bastions of political resistance to the regime of former general – now president – Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The Egyptian police investigation into the killing, seen as bungled and compromised by Rome, has sparked a serious rift in relations between the two countries. The pair otherwise enjoy a solid economic relationship. Italy is Egypt’s largest trade partner after the United States and China, with bilateral trade reaching $6bn in 2014. There are big investments by Italian companies in the oil, transport, manufacturing and banking sectors. The mother of Giulio Regeni spoke powerfully of seeing her dead son’s mutilated body: “I only recognised him from the tip of his nose. I won’t tell you what they had done to him. I saw all the evil of the world in it.” She has threatened to release photographs if the killersare not found. The Italian political world appearstobe moved

POLITICS

to action, too. The foreign minister of Italy, Paolo Gentiloni, said on 6 April that Rome would take “immediate and proportional measures” against the Egyptian regime if it did not find Regeni’s killers. President Sisi appears unperturbed, saying the case will not affect the “strong bilateral relations” between the two countries. Egypt strongly denies any security service involvement in the student’s death. What makes Sisi so confident that the diplomatic storm will not override economic interests? After all, Italian newspaper La Repubblica has leaked emails that suggest the presidency in covering up the murder. It may partly be because of the size of those interests. Italian state oil company Eni made one of its largest natural gas finds off the Egyptian coast last year, a “supergiant” worth an estimated $100bn. And the geostrategic advantages for the European Union of having an alternative gas supply to President Vladimir Putin’s Russia will be hard to pass on. Officials from Fiat, Saipem, Ferrovie dello Stato – all blue-chip Italian companies – were visiting Egypt at the time of Regeni’s

murder, along with 57 other large Italian companies and the Italian minister of economic development. Sisimayalsofeelsafebecausethesamesecurityapparatusthat keeps him in power is kitted out by Italian arms manufacturers. Many of the armoured police trucks, for example, that patrol the streets of Egyptian cities are from Italian company Iveco. Perhaps the Egyptian government is more concerned about the trade unions into which Regeni was doing his research. In his last dispatch to Italian paper Il Manifesto, published two days after his body was found, Regeni talks of the federating work of the Centre for Trade Union and Workers Services (CTUWS), which is attempting to bring together disparate workers across the cement, transport and agriculture. According to Regeni, recent strikes “challenge the heart of the neoliberal transformation of the country, which has undergone a major acceleration since 2004 and which the 2011 popular uprisings and their slogan – Bread, Freedom, Social Justice – have substantially dented.” ● Nicholas Norbrook

ANANSI

MDC on the move MOVE ALONG, nothing to see here: in essence, that is what Zimbabwe’s ruling party mouthpiece, The Herald, wrote the morning after a substantial opposition rally in the capital Harare. Rather, it focused on what it called 4,000 Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) youths causing trouble and looting shops. It was a show of strength from the MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai, and if it did pull more than 10,000 onto the streets, it must have sent ripples of alarm through a ruling party plagued by infighting over the succession of President Robert Mugabe.

Troubled communications DIDN’T YOU HEAR? Move along, nothing to see here. It is the Ethiopian government, this time, that would rather citizens stop

dwelling on the Oromia protests that cost the lives of hundreds of people a month ago. In what must be unrelated news, messaging services like Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp are unavailable in Oromia. It doesn’t matter if your message is trying to rally demonstrators to protest the government’s urbanisation policy or just to let a family member know you are going to be late home – it won’t get through. The government blames the communications blackout on faulty connections. That is certainly one way of looking at it.

Powerful connections OAKBAY INVESTMENTS, the investment vehicle for the scandalprone Gupta family in South Africa, is also keen for you to understand that there is nothing to see here, so please trot on. The latest thing that they are keen for you not to worry about is a tie-up with South Africa’s arms parastatal Denel. Also, they would like to steer you away from looking too closely at any relationship that Oakbay’s purchase of Shiva Uranium in 2010 might have with President Jacob

Zuma’s recent obsession with over-priced Russian nuclear power plants. Would you prefer to look at Zuma launching a joint arms factory with Saudi Arabia instead?

When will he manage to retire? PERHAPS SOME GOOD NEWS from Sudan will cheer the gloom. Buoyed perhaps by the departure of his best frenemy Hassan al-Turabi to the afterlife, Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir announced – again – that he will step down from his job as one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders. Since the International Criminal Court charges against President Kenyatta were dropped, Bashir is the only sitting head of state facing charges. Bashir had said that he was going to step down in 2015, but as he has been enjoying work so much, he must have forgotten. This could be a bid to reassert some work-life balance – he told the BBC his job was “exhausting”. The United Nations says that in the past four months, 100,000 people have been displaced by government bombing in Darfur. ● THE AFRICA REPORT

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Our Rooms

!"#$ %$&'()* +(,-)#($.

COUNTRY FOCUS

Democratic Republic of Congo

TUTONDELE MIANKEN/AFP

President Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Stay or go? As the DRC’s economy begins to struggle, the country’s political debate is focused on elections that must take place by November and the constitution’s presidential term limits. It seems impossible to meet that deadline, but President Kabila is not letting on about how he will play the crisis By Aaron Ross in Kinshasa

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uspended from the towering monument dedicated to Belgium’s King Albert I opposite Kinshasa’s iconic central train station,abluebannerscreams at the traffic below: “LET’S DIALOGUE FOR THE GOOD OF CONGO.” For more than four months, tropical squalls have felled it from its perch – sometimes several times a week. Each time, it has been promptly restored, a beacon of persistence against gathering storms. The banner is an apt metaphor for the political initiative it touts. Announced to great pomp last November by ● ● ●

COUNTRY FOCUS | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC CAMEROON

REP. OF GABON THE CONGO KINSHASA

Atlantic Ocean

SOUTH SUDAN

President Joseph Kabila, who has ruled the vast Central African country since his father’s assassination in 2001, the so-called “national inclusive dialogue” has had an uneven start. The government presented the talks as an urgent measure to set the conditions for peaceful elections after votes in 2006 and 2011 were marred by bloodshed. The first progress came only in April when an international facilitator, Togo’s former prime minister, Edem Kodjo, announced the imminent installation of a preparatory committee. The vast majority of major opposition parties have rejected the dialogue and said it is a pretext to delay the presidential election slated for 27 November and to allow the term-limited Kabila to cling to power.

Kisangani Goma

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

UGANDA RWANDA BURUNDI TANZANIA

Lubumbashi ANGOLA 400 km

ZAMBIA

DRC AT A GLANCE POPULATION URBAN POPULATION (% of total)

42%1

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

50.32 $2.06 billion3

GDP

$33.12 billion1

GDP GROWTH

9%1

INDUSTRY (value added, % of GDP)

33.2%1

CONSUMER-PRICE INFLATION

1.2%2

INTERNET USERS (% of population)

3%1

MOBILE CELLULAR SUBSCRIPTIONS (per 100 people)

531

SOURCES: WORLD BANK 20141, AFDB 20142, UNCTAD 20143

74.88 million1

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

STATE OF THE ECONOMY Real GDP growth and contributions by sector 10 5 0

-10 -15

agriculture industry services indirect taxes GDP growth

-5

2000 02

2014

EXTRACTING VALUE Exports of minerals (percent of GDP)

zinc cobalt cassiterite

gold copper diamonds

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2002

2004

2006

2008

ector, Kalev Mutond (see page 56), and the interior minister, Evariste Boshab – instrumental in negotiations over financing the elections – have been drafted into key political roles, even as they oversee a crackdown on Kabila’s critics. The strategy of glissement has taken few by surprise. As soon as the January 2015 protests against alleged efforts by Kabila to cling to power ended in the government withdrawing a controversial reform to the electoral law, opponents warned that Kabila would next look to technical delays based on a lack of money, an obsolete voter registry and security problems. Even so, they have been unable to do much to stop it. “The glissement is already a fact – the opposition has [done] nothing really to counteract this,” says Hans Hoebeke, a DRC analyst for the International Crisis SLOWDOWN TACTICS And yet, few of Kabila’s allies seem Group (ICG), a non-governmental organisation. “Thus far, through the [electoverly concerned. Indeed, if the masoral commission and] the courts, the ter plan, as the president’s opponents majority has succeeded in controlling charge, is glissement, or a slippage of the playing field with very little effective the election calendar, then Kabila’s reaction from either the opposition or coalition could hardly have hoped for better. More than just a delaying tactic, the international community.” it has also become a one-size-fits-all In March, the president of the electrhetorical cudgel for Kabila’s defendoral commission, Corneille Nangaa, ers. Asked by The Africa Report if Kabila told the media that he would request would be willing to commit to leaving a “small extension” to the presidential power after the election in order to election in order to update voter rolls, reassure the opposition that his real said to exclude more than seven milstrategy is not to change the constilion eligible voters who have turned tution, the ruling coalition’s spokes18 since the 2011 election and to conman, André-Alain Atundu, tain the names of millions replied with a trusty retort: of dead people. Previously, “The dialogue is there prethe commission said that revising the rolls would take cisely to build confidence.” between 13 and 16 months. The current stalemate The government has failed to marks a reversal for Kabclarify how it plans to raise ila’s foes, who seemed to the funding for a planned begin 2016 with a spring in slate of local, provincial and their step as the dialogue national elections estimated floundered. Kabila’s comillion to cost some $1.2bn. alition dealt with several high-profile defections and people aged 18-22 are While the United States not included on voter the country’s fractious opambassador to the United rolls, according to the position formed a new platNations, Samantha Power, electoral commission form committed to the prespushed back against the SOURCE: CENI ident’s departure this year. commission’s time estimWell aware of the country’s ates, the position of Western continuing fragility and Kabila’s acute powers on the elections seems to be political weaknesses, the president’s alsoftening. “Behind the scenes, everylies only briefly countenanced the bruteone knows it’s not going to happen force method used by other presidents in [this year],” says Stephanie Wolters, a the region to stay in power. Instead, they Congo analyst at the Institute for Sehave rallied around an apparent strategy curity Studies in South Africa. of delay to extend Kabila’s time in office All of this has forced the opposiuntil they can find a long-term solution. tion to recalibrate its approach. Several leaders have even begun to speak Top allies like national intelligence dir●●●

2010

2012

SOURCE: IMF, SEPTEMBER 2015

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GWENN DUBOURTHOUMIEU/AFP

openly about the possibility of a transition if November’s election is missed, though they insist that Kabila cannot be the one to lead it. If the wily Kabila appears to be winning the parlour game so far, it would be a mistake to ignore the DRC that dwells beyond the corridors of power. Nearly the size of western Europe and with a population of more than 70 million, the DRC has defied firm centralised control in the best of times. Kabila, never popular in the west of the country, now faces growing discontent in his traditional eastern fiefs too. Protests in January 2015 resulted in more than 40 deaths, hinting at widespread disaffection with the results of Kabila’s 15-year rule. Despite some of the fastest economic growth rates in the world – averaging 8% over the past five years – poverty reduction has remained anaemic and inner-city residents complain of worsening overcrowding and deteriorating infrastructure. Youth activist groups have emerged to channel the largely inchoate anger that percolates on the streets, leading to brutal crackdowns by authorities. Deterioratingeconomicconditionsare likely to amplify tensions. Sharp drops in the price of commodities like copper, cobalt and oil that the DRC depends on for some 98% of its export revenues are just starting to be felt. Mines in the copper-producing southeast have started THE AFRICA REPORT

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laying off workers, the central bank has slashed its 2016 growth forecast from 9% to 6.6%, and foreign-currency reserves are at their lowest levels in years. After five years of remarkable macroeconomic stability, the Congolese franc is slowly but surely losing ground to the United States dollar. A return to the hyperinflation of the 1990s might not be on the cards, but Kinshasa residents say they are starting to feel the pinch in the price of basic staples. “The direct social impact of the economic crisis is likely to contribute more to the instability than the political uncertainty,” says the ICG’s Hoebeke. “The combination of both makes for a dangerously unpredictable cocktail.” UNDER PRESSURE

The opposition is keen to harness this discontent and steadily increase the pressure on Kabila. “Joseph Kabila needs to understand that he can no longer hold the electoral process hostage,” says Olivier Kamitatu, whose G7 opposition coalition endorsed the powerful former governor from the DRC’s copper-mining south-east, Moïse Katumbi (see page 66), to represent it in the presidential election. Katumbi has not yet officially declared his candidacy, saying he is trying to first unite the different wings of the opposition. He has said the opposition will organise a series of marches in July to pressure Kabila to commit to leaving.

A 2011 billboard in Kinshasa promotes President Kabila’s public-works projects

Despite murmurings of discontent within the ranks of the armed forces, it is still Kabila who controls the guns. With Kabila known for his silence, the answers to the most important questions of all remain exasperatingly elusive. What are his true intentions? Can he be gently coaxed into retirement with the right mix of personal protections and incentives? Or is he – as many analysts believe – quietly weighing the balance of forces, keeping his options open until the very last possible moment? Then, there is the question of his allies and family members, whom analysts say could fear material loss and even potential prosecution if Kabila is no longer president. A proposal in the senate would extend far-reaching immunities to Kabila’s collaborators, but the measure has yet to be taken up formally. Over bottles of Tembo and Primus beer, speculation over these questions mixes these days with rumba to form the new soundtrack of Kinshasa’s bars. But, says Pascal Kambale, the former DRC country director for the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa: “Anyone trying to predict outcomes or what it will look like process-wise has learned nothing from the complex political history of the country.” ●

ADVERTORIAL

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PEOPLE TO WATCH

1 ith the will-he-stay-or-willhe-go speculation swirling around President Joseph Kabila, spy chief Kalev Mutond (1) is a crucialoperatorinKabila’scorner.Onone front, the director of the Agence Nationale deRenseignementshasbeenquashingopposition protests about the possibility of Kabila staying beyond the end of his last constitutional term, and on the other he has been the government’s envoy, trying 3 2 to get opposition parties around the table for a national dialogue. Oppositionist and hiring of a personal public relations firm former Kabila ally Moïse Katumbi has are signs that Ponyo could be considcriticised Mutond, saying he is behind ering a run for the presidency. Even if the shrinking of freedoms and political he does not, political insiders say that space of recent months. he now has enough money to remain a New civil society groups like political force for some time. (which means ‘whistle’ in Kiswahili) and Lutte pour le changement (LUCHA) The government has said that its rushed programme of decentralisation, have been some of the victims of the which came into force in July 2015 with government crackdown. Both are part the establishment of 26 provinces to reof the umbrella alliance of non-governplace the previous 11, was a precondition mental organisations and parties in the for the holding of national elections. One Front Citoyen 2016. This was formed in December 2015 to force the government of the apparent goals of the plan for new to hold presidential elections before 2016. provinces was to divide up Katumbi’s Filimbi leaders Yves Makwambala and Fred Bauma His book launch and hiring of are in prison awaiting trial a personal PR firm suggest on charges of threatening state security after participPonyo may run for president ating in a conference with similar groups from across the continent, base, Katanga Province, where he served including Senegal’s Y’en a Marre and as governor from 2007 to 2015. Home to much of the country’s copper Burkina Faso’s Le Balai Citoyen. Other Filimbi leaders including Floribert Anzuand cobalt reserves, Katanga became luni, Yangu Kiakwama and Franck Otete four new provinces. Ruling party stalwart have fled the country due to safety fears Richard Muyej stood unopposed and but say that they will continue to fight to won the late March indirect governorship election for one of them – Lualaba – and strengthen the country’s democracy. Despite repeated claims of an upcomhas quickly run into problems with the ing government reshuffle, prime minister region’s miners. They are not backing Augustin Matata Ponyo remains in his his plans for a toll road to Zambia and post and seems to be manoeuvring to imare worried about the new provinces’ prove his political future. The Kinshasa demands for taxes and other fees (see page 58). He says his immediate priorities rumour mill says that the launch of his book, Pour un Congo Emergent, and the are fighting insecurity in the provincial

MAXPPP

The constitution is clear that Kabila must organise elections and step down before 2016, and forces are aligning to prepare for any eventuality

Elections on their minds

capital of Kolwezi and raising as much revenue as possible. The DRC’s artist class has been divided about its political engagement, with musicians often accused of taking money to sing in support of political causes. Founder of the ‘Tchatcho’ musical wave Koffi Olomidé (2) has come out against Kabila attempting to outstay his rights. His song ‘Congo Mon Amour’, which was released in February, says the government must hand over power and respect the constitution. Despite his claims in November 2015 that he would one day like to become the president of Africa, Olomidé is sticking to music for now. His late 2015 album 13ème Apôtre was a success on the back of the song ‘Selfie’. Crisis does not have politics as an exclusivedomain.InlateMarch,theBanque Internationale pour l’Afrique au Congo (BIAC) – one of the country’s largest banks –sackedCEOMichelLosembeand replaced him with its public sector and Kinshasa director, Anne Mbuguje (3). The bank has admitted to suffering from serious – but “temporary” – liquidity problems after the central bank cut off a financing deal that had been in place for years. Mbuguje now faces a public fearful of a bank collapse and the difficult task of raising funds amidst global growth concerns and the recent dips in the price of mining commodities. ● Honoré Banda in Kinshasa THE AFRICA REPORT

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COUNTRY FOCUS

Banro, owner of the Twangiza mine, is keen to retain the status quo

MINING

A code you can live by

PHILIP MOSTERT

Reforms of mining legislation have stalled once again after an angry reaction by companies who say taxes are still too high while commodity prices are low

ines minister Martin Kabwelulu strode about this year’s Mining Indaba, which took place as usual in Cape Town in early February, with an unusually confident swagger. True, a collapse in mining revenue has left a gaping hole in the government’s budget, but Kabwelulu was celebrating nine years in his position, making him the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) longest-serving cabinet minister. “I don’t know why I’ve stayed in position so long,” Kabwelulu said modestly, “but the fact that I have shows that we have stability in governance in our country.” In an apparent stab at his host government, which had recently changed mines and finance ministers in controversial circumstances, Kabwelulu added: “We do not just change our ministers on a whim.” Investors and mining companies at the Mining Indaba were eager to hear what exactly was going on with a drawnout process the government launched in 2013 to review its mining code. The initial drafts of a revised code hiked taxes, increased the size of the stakes miners had to give the state in joint ventures, and reduced the time period before which the state could seek to amend contracts. Companies reacted furiously in 2015, with Randgold leading the charge, saying that the proposed changes would choke off new investment and cost both the company and the country dearly. The government initially stuck to its guns,

and Kamituga. Both these sites, however, are the work sites of artisanal miners reluctant to move out, as well as numerous militiamen and soldiers who prey on the diggers and tax their but the drastic collapse in mineral commeagre earnings. Meanwhile, in the volatile Nord-Kivu modity prices caused it to lose its nerve. Province territory of Walikale, TorontoThe government then reduced the proposed increase in taxes, but the comlisted Alphamin is seeking to build an underground tin mine at Bisie. Bisie, where panies insisted it was not enough. In late the tin deposit reportedly runs hundreds 2015, the draft of a new code made it of metres deep at eye-wateringly good through the council of ministers and to grades, was notorious for years for its the national assembly, where it sits, we are told, with its mining sub-committee. tens of thousands of artisanal miners and an endless procession of violent, rent-seeking military forces. Today, howJOINT VENTURES The news Kabwelulu took to the Mining ever, most of the diggers have given up, in large part because of the fall in the tin Indaba was that in the interim the old price, making Bisie less interesting too for code would remain in force. His mesthe soldiers and militiamen. In a major sage was exactly what Randgold chief boost for the project, South executive Mark Bristow, Africa’s Industrial Developfor one, had been wantment Corporation took a ing to hear. On 19 Janu15% stake in Alphamin in ary, Bristow reported November 2015. that he had signed three joint-venture exploration Down in the Copperbelt, agreements with junior miners are reeling from miners that hold permits falls in the price of copnext to Randgold’s Kibali per and cobalt. A further headache for miners there gold mine. The new joint Percentage mineral is the proliferation of disventures, Bristow said, processing plants more than double the size putes between the authorin Katanga Province owned by of Randgold’s holdings in ities of the new provinces Chinese companies the DRC. of Haut Katanga and LuSOURCE: KPMG Keeping the mining alaba, where their mining code as is will also beneassets lie, about who gets fit Toronto-listed Banro Corporation, to tax the companies and for what. The the country’s only other industrial provincial authorities are pushing for gold miner. Banro is in production at companies to pay both of them. The Twangiza in Sud-Kivu and at Namoya companies are resisting, and matters in Maniema Province and plans to start are already starting to get messy. ● producing at two other sites: Lugushwa Gregory Mthembu-Salter in Kinshasa

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ADVERTORIAL

FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN DRC

DEMOCRATIC C Agriculture,

R EPU U BLIC C a necessary step!

OF CONGO CONGO

he Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) boasts a huge agricultural potential. That is why the go vernment has rolled out a strategy to structurally transform and diversify the economy as a way of boosting its resilience in an increasingly hostile international economic environment.

From top to bottom Bukanga-Lonzo Agro-Industrial Park. H.E. Mr. Joseph Kabila, President of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Route One between Kinshasa and Kikwit. The Prime Minister (left) exchanging ideas with the Ministers of Agriculture and Industry.

DEMOCRATIC C

R EPU U BLIC C

OF CONGO CONGO

“

The government opted to promote and modernize agriculture by developing AgroIndustrial Parks.

he crisis that rocked the raw materials market prompted African countries to downwardly revise their respective economies’ growth forecasts. Based primarily on extractive industries— gold, diamonds, oil, copper and cobalt—they mainly hitched their stars to one wagon, China, whose appetite seemed insatiable. Until it wasn’t anymore. Prices did not take a temporary tumble; they collapsed due to the slowdown in China’s consumption. Oil lost up to half its value.

To deal with the bleak economic outlook, African leaders rolled out measures ranging from theorems to technical principles and even prayer, as in Zambia. But every cloud has a silver lining. They learned their lesson and agreed that a sustainable solution needed to be found: few countries had emerged from the crisis unscathed. So the crisis spawned resilience—in other words, the ability of economies to withstand endogenous and exogenous shocks. The only way forward was economic diversification. Agriculture was naturally a topic of discussion. Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria’s former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, had a clear vision when he became head of the AfDB in May 2015. He wanted Africa to engage into agricultural transformation—and let everybody know it. In his view, everything had changed. Opportunities were cropping up on a swiftly-growing continent. Production equipment had evolved. Tractors now had air conditioning. What’s more, agriculture offered many job opportunities, especially for young people: Africa spends nearly $35 billion a year on food imports! All that remained was to encourage them to design and invest in agricultural projects.

A tractor and combine for harvesting maize.

The DRC’s leaders did not wait for the crisis to hit and raw materials prices to bottom out before deciding to focus on agriculture. The President had long advocated food self-sufficiency. His Prime Minister, Matata Ponyo, dreamed of feeding the huge country and limiting food imports, for which it pays nearly three billion dollars a year. The concept, which eventually will be rolled out nationwide, is based on three key components: (1) development of commercial farms; (2) support for smallholders living on the edges of selected sites; and (3) creation of capital-, technology- and labour-intensive agricultural cooperatives. More specifically, AIPs will be production parks bringing together different agricultural players (professionals, farmers, etc.) who farm variously-sized plots while pooling basic infrastructure (roads, water, energy, telecommunications, etc.), local services (finance, quality control laboratories, transport, maintenance, waste management, refrigerated storage facilities, etc.), agricultural knowledge and good practices (training, research, support, technology transfers), etc.

The Prime Minister with the Minister of Industry (left), Deputy Minister of Finance (right), Minister of Agriculture and General Manager of the Bukanga-Lonzo Agro-Industrial Park (facing).

“

80,000 HA Size of the BukangaLonzo AgroIndustrial Park”

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The BukangaLonzo AIP is an agricultural production, processing, packaging and sales complex.” Ida Naserwa, General Manager, Bukanga-Lonzo AIP

ADVERTORIAL

NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT PLAN Adopted by the Government in May 2013, DR Congo’s National Agricultural Investment Plan (NAIP) covers the period 2013-2020. It has four objectives:

AIPs will also have agro-industrial and logistical activity zones and structures with the aim of improving collaboration and synergy between all the players. They will help to integrate all the links in the value chain from top to bottom and offer investors and food companies a comprehensive range of services. Each park will foster a business-friendly environment including specialised consulting services, mentoring for entrepreneurs, support for innovation, services to consolidate and develop markets, access to secure financing and smart partnerships that spur local economic development depending on local and regional potential. In compliance with the President’s instructions, Congolese experts developed the AIP initiative under the Prime Minister’s leadership. The government funded the first stage of the BukangaLonzo pilot AIP.

the international market for sales. The Congolese State owns a majority stake in all those entities. South African partners contribute know-how, technology and training. Land in the park is set aside for small-scale manioc growers employed by the AIP. Local producers receive support, including technology transfers, and supply food products meeting the same international standards as those produced by the AIP. Bukanga-Lonzo did not come out of thin air. The site was chosen for its location, which allows products, eventually including poultry, cattle and sheep, to be easily shipped out. A thousand irrigated hectares will be put aside for the production of vegetables, expected to reach 500 tonnes a day! Nearly 50,000 hectares will be

strengthening the country’s food security; diversifying the population’s diet; developing agricultural and agro-industrial sectors so that they become the main drivers of economic growth and exports; and halving the poverty rate (63% in 2013). At a cost estimated at $5.73 billion over seven years, the NAIP is structured around five

The Bukanga-Lonzo Agro-industrial Park The Bukanga-Lonzo Agro-Industrial Park is a huge, approximately 80,000-hectare project. Land stretching out as far as the eye can see is expected to produce enough food to feed not just Congo, but also neighbouring countries in the sub-region. On 15 July 2014, the President officially launched the project, which already employs nearly 500 people even though less than half of its planned activities are up and running. At least 5,000 permanent jobs are expected to be created in the coming months. The huge project has three separate but complementary components, illustrating a public-private partnership that is bearing fruit. The Bukanga-Lonzo AIP is responsible for the site’s development, the Société d’Exploitation du PAI (the operating company) for production and

programmes: development of agricultural and agro-industrial zones ($3.65 billion); Harvesting maize in Bukanga-Lonzo.

devoted to growing maize. With a minimum yield of five tonnes per hectare, the Bukanga-Lonzo AIP will produce at least 250,000 tonnes of maize a year within three years. In addition to chicken, eggs, meats and fish, 1,000 ha will be devoted to the production of vegetables under irrigations. As General Manager Ida Naserwa points out, the Bukanga-Lonzo AIP is not a farm but an agroindustrial park, a veritable modern city where farm products are grown and processed. It is an intersection of services deployed and developed along the entire food value chain—in other words, an agricultural production, processing, packaging and sales complex.

agricultural product and food security management ($536.9 million); research and development and training ($738.3 million); governance and strengthening human and institutional capacity ($607.3 million); adaptation to climate change ($195.8 million).

ADVERTORIAL

DEMOCRATIC C

R EPU U BLIC C

OF CONGO CONGO

The transformer station in Bukanga-Lonzo.

Supplying the AIP with power is key to its success. Infrastructure has been developed to ensure a steady flow of 56 MW. Instead of a simple connection, the Bukanga-Lonzo AIP has a substation that transforms high-voltage into medium-voltage current. The Bukanga-Lonzo AIP also has a social dimension. It does not produce manioc, the main crop grown by local small-scale farmers. The AIP buys their output, ensuring their survival. Around 22 agro-industrial park sites have been identified nationwide, but they will be developed gradually. In 2016, the focus will be on sites in Kalemie (Tanganyika Province), Kindu (Maniema Province), Luiza (Central Kasai) and Nkundi (Central Kongo Province). The DRC offers many investment opportunities. It has tremendous potential, room to spare and is waiting for interested investors to mount projects based on win-win partnerships.

Land, Congo’s new source of wealth DEMOCRATIC C

R EPU U BLIC C

OF CONGO CONGO

After basing its economic growth on mining, Congo is going back to its roots. The government has decided to develop the country’s most valuable resource: land. Fertile, arable land accounts for nearly 80% of its 2,345,000 square kilometres.

Until now, agriculture has mainly consisted of subsistence farming. The government has opted for industrialisation to make it competitive. But small-scale growers are protected no matter what. At Bukanga-Lonzo for example, they provide manpower while taking advantage of support as well as of the South African partner’s technology transfers. So far, the government has funded Bukanga Lonzo, a trial balloon currently producing seven tonnes of maize per hectare. The project is successful. The DRC is expecting more investors to take part in developing the other identified sites. Producing and processing food products will enable not just the local population but also the whole country to be fed. Crossed by the Equator in its midsection, the DRC offers an appreciable diversity of climates. The seasons alternate between north and south, balancing the flow of waterways. The country’s many rivers make it easy to ship products. What’s more, the DRC shares its border with nine countries, an essential advantage for access to markets—nine potential outlets likely to make it a food hub in the heart of Africa. The development of agriculture will spur the growth of transport infrastructure and other activity sectors. As the sites become agro-industrial parks, the government hopes to attract investment to build roads and find ways to transport finished products. Congo’s officials set the goal of developing multimodal transport several years ago. With help from the African Development Bank, Congo is trying to attract young people to farming— a sector with a decidedly bright outlook.

THE PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE OF THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

5 avenue du roi Baudouin - Gombe-Kinshasa - Email:cabinet@prilmature.cd - http://www.primature.cd/public/

“

The development of agriculture will spur the growth of transport and power production infrastructure, considerably enhancing the Congolese people’s quality of life.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO | COUNTRY FOCUS

DEBATE

Is a national dialogue really necessary? Is President Kabila’s call for a new round of political discussions the way to peaceful elections, or a ruse to delay the electoral process? Politicians offer their views

Samy Badibanga

Henri Mova Sakanyi

President, Union pour la Démocratie et le Progrès Social (UDPS) parliamentary group

Secretary general, Parti du Peuple pour la Reconstruction et la Démocratie (PPRD)

Whyhaveyou refused to participateinthe dialogue the government has suggested? We want to participate in the dialogue but under certain conditions: the government first has to commit to upholding the constitution, especially regarding the length and the number of terms. We also want the appointment of an impartial mediator who will supervise the process.

Was it really necessary to convene a national dialogue? Dialogue is the only solution that can pave the way for peaceful and credible elections. […] Remember the first elections in our history? They led to the secession of Katanga and Kasaï, to the coup of September 1960, the assassination of [Patrice] Lumumba […]. The 1965 elections didn’t even take place because of a military coup. The 2006 presidential elections were accompanied by violence in Kinshasa, and there were also some deaths in 2011. For how long will we continue this infernal cycle?

So you’re not happy with the African Union (AU)’s appointment of Edem Kodjo as mediator? It’s not about the person but rather the method used. Why did the AU take this initiative instead of joining the ongoing process? The United Nations had already launched consultations to initiate a dialogue that [UDPS leader] Étienne Tshisekedi had agreed to take part in. Isitstillpossibletoorganisethepresidentialelectionswithin the constitutional framework – that is, before December? It’s up to the Commission Électorale Nationale Indépendente to decide, but in my humble opinion it’s no longer possible […]. Haven’t we parliamentarians voted budgets to the commission that ended up not being allocated? I think the government intentionally refused to organise the elections.

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Kabila was the country’s first democratically elected president. Can he also be the first Congolese president to transfer power peacefully? Why not? That’s how it shouldbe.Andthosewho want this to happen had better participate in the dialogue so that we can get things going now. This will complete the democratic process that Joseph Kabila started himself. ● M RTHOU DUBOU

THE AFRICA REPORT

Is it still possible to organise the presidential elections within the scheduled time frame? The inclusive dialogue is supposed torespondtothatquestion.Iwantto make clear that the dialogue is not intendedtochangetheconstitution.

GWENN

In December 2015, you and Félix Tshisekedi met with oppositionist Moïse Katumbi. Is the UDPS considering backing a single candidate? We agree with [Moïse Katumbi] on upholding the constitution and on changing governments in 2016. This is the battle that we first have to win. It’s too soon to talk about candidates. It can divide us, and we risk losing everything. Having said that, I believe the days of an individual leadership are gone, as the current situation calls for unity. ●

Can there be a dialogue if the UDPS, the main opposition party, refuses to participate in it? We would like all the key Congolese stakeholders, including Étienne Tshisekedi, to gather around the negotiating table. However, he is not our sole interlocutor and even if the dialogue is not met with unanimous approval, we are counting on the presence of many participants.

Interview by Pierre Boisselet and Trésor Kibangula This article first appeared in Jeune Afrique

COUNTRY FOCUS | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

THE EAST

Rebel stalemate An estimated 70 militia groups are active in eastern DRC, with a spate of clashes in recent months. As the tally of displaced people rises, UN and government forces seem unable to shift the balance of power

torm clouds are gathering menthe likely reason being that they have acingly once more in the Demobeen whisked off to military training cratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s camps, as has happened for years to troubled east, threatening to rain down young men from camps of Nord-Kivu more conflict and misery. Sources in Tutsi refugees in Rwanda. the United Nations (UN) mission in the The Congo Research Group, a think DRC say that combatants of the Rwandatank, reckons that at least 70 armed backed anti-government Mouvement groups are active in eastern DRC and that around 1.6 million people are disdu 23 mars (M23) militia are circulatplaced in Nord- and Sud-Kivu. There ing in the Nord-Kivu provincial caphas been a spate of clashes in recent ital of Goma but reckon they currently pose little threat. However, the governmonths in the north of Nord-Kivu near ment’s often tense relationship with the town of Lubero, where militias the UN could begin a drawn from Nande new phase this year, and Hutu communitAround ies have been attacking with spillover effects for conflict in the Kivus. villagers, resulting in M23 troops took confew casualties but sigmillion nificant displacement. trol of Goma in 2012, people have been The UN mission and but UN and Forces displaced in Nordcommunity leaders Armées de la Répuband Sud-Kivu say that politicians lique Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) solare manipulating the SOURCE: THE CONGO RESEARCH GROUP diers beat them back. At violence. present, say UN sources, there is no inThere has been continued violence dication that the Rwandan government too around Beni, to the north of Lubero, is interested in offering its support to a which the FARDC and, initially, UN fresh armed insurgency. forces have habitually blamed on the Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF), TRAINING CAMPS a militia reported to be fighting for an Instead, the Rwandan government apIslamic government in neighbouring pears far more concerned about develUganda. Research and analysis by the opments in Burundi, where the governUN Group of Experts, which the UN’s DRC mission now seems to agree with, ment accuses Kigali of giving succour suggests that the real reason for much to, and arming, an anti-government of the fighting around Beni is ethnic militia that aims to topple Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza. Rwanda’s factionalism within the FARDC, again mostly pitting Hutus against the Nande. President Paul Kagame has denied the The UN peacekeeping missionand the claims, but stories circulate nonetheFARDC are in theory conducting joint less in Rwanda of Burundian refugee operations against the ADF. In practice, camps where there are no young men,

1.6

JAMES AKENA/REUTERS

With the surrender of M23 in 2013, the vacuum has been filled by dozens of other armed groups

say insiders, they work “in parallel”. “They do their thing”, explains one UN source, “and we do ours.” In early February, the UN and the FARDC announced the resumption of joint operations against the pro-Hutu Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR). The FARDC suspended joint operations in 2014 in protest at UN complaints about the presence of two FARDC commanders previously implicated in serious human-rights abuses. NEW MISSION COMMANDER

The FDLR is a shadow of its former self. It counts fewer than 2,000 combatants, according to most estimates, but has nonetheless retained a fighting capacity. In late December, the UN mission appointed a new force commander, Lieutenant General Derrick Mbuyiselo Mgwebi, a South African. Two months earlier, Maman Sidikou of Niger was appointed the new political head of the UN mission. Sidikou took office in January but has so far kept a low profile, in marked contrast to his predecessor, the Twitter-obsessed Martin Kobler, who now heads up the UN’s Libya mission. Sidikou has been well received by both UN and government senior staff but he faces a new crisis, as Kinshasa requested in March that the number of blue helmets be cut in half to 10,000 by the end of the year. ● Gregory Mthembu-Salter in Goma and Gisenyi THE AFRICA REPORT

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Congo-Invest Consulting can facilitate the access to this market of over 70 million consumers, growing to reach 100 million by 2020. CIC can also help investors identify business line opportunities in such sector as agribusiness (coffee, cacao, sugar, rubber, palm oil…), energy, telecom or real estate. The company has a solid academic and business track record with companies like mining operators, Diplomatic Missions based in Kinshasa for which CIC develops studies and lead business missions. To name but few of its portfolio, in the retail sector, CIC also mobilizes multimillion dollars financial facilities to support SMEs for their development. For those who really mean business in the Democratic Republic of Congo, CongoInvest Consulting Dream Team has just succeeded translating the American “Yes we can” into “Yes Congo can”.

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Rwanda Focus Stepping out of the neighbours’ shadows

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COUNTRY FOCUS | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

PROFILE

Moïse Katumbi

Former governor, Katanga Province

A rabble rouser considers his chances The popular ruling party baron turned oppositionist could be a serious contender in elections scheduled for November. But to get that far, he will need to unite the opposition

ffable, urbane and a great rabble rouser while campaigning in his native province of Katanga, Moïse Katumbi is quiet and considered in private. Given his stewardship of the football club TP Mazembe, the defending CAF Champions League winners, he is asked what he thinks of suggestions that Arsène Wenger might leave at the end of a disappointing season for the London club Arsenal. “They would be crazy to let him go,” he tells The Africa Report. “Look at the club, look what he has built.” When it comes to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Joseph Kabila, his political arch-rival and erstwhile friend, Katumbi is less forgiving. In his resignation letter from Kabila’s ruling Parti du Peuple pour la Reconstruction et la Démocratie in September 2015, he rails against the regime for stalling over upcoming elections set for the end of this year, “with everything being done to avoid respecting the constitution.” He also points to the rising tide of violence against ordinary citizens and pro-democracy activists. Kabila’s response was crude: he parked his tanks on Katumbi’s

home territory. The Congolese army has moved several military vehicles, including tanks, into positions around Lubumbashi, Katumbi’s base. The former governor has told journalists that his kids have been followed back from school by security agents, but that he is not intimidated. In December 2014, upon his return from a medical trip to London, he was mobbed by a huge crowd of supporters, many of whom assumed he had survived an attempted poisoning. WHEELING AND DEALING

Lubumbashi is the basis of Katumbi’s reputation, for better or for worse. Better run than other Congolese cities, it houses some of the country’s biggest mining companies. “When I arrived at the head of the government in Katanga, the province was in ruins,” says Katumbi, who focused on critical mining infrastructure like roads. “In the rainy season, it took two months to get an articulated lorry from the Zambian border to Kolwezi. Now it takes five hours.” Katumbi’s fortune was made selling services to miners. His Mining Company Katanga (MCK) has gone through various permutations and helps transport the

SWITCHING SIDES 28 December 1964 Born in Kashobwe 1997 Became chairman of the TP Mazembe football team 2006 Elected governor of Katanga Province September 2015 Stepped down as governor and quit the ruling party

ore from rich cobalt and copper mines out of the country. French logistics company Necotrans bought MCK from him for an undisclosed sum in November 2015. This overlap of his public and private personas – Belgian filmmaker Thierry Michel calls Katumbi “a blend of Chavez and Berlusconi” – comes with its weaknesses. Various Wikileaks cables as well as the Congolese financial regulator raised questions about his management of provincial finances as well as the opacity of his business dealings. And a report by the Carter Centre on pollution in Lubumbashi’s poorer districts caused by the Indian company Chemaf suggests the administration did not leap forward to protect the citizenry. Katumbi has always claimed probity, which has not stopped the THE AFRICA REPORT

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COUNTRY FOCUS

ment has not yet come,” he added, for talk about candidates. Others point out that Katumbi had said the same thing 24 hours earlier. The G7 grouping is not the force that it was in September 2015, when it first split from the ruling party, taking 100 or so members of parliament with it out of a total of 500 Congolese MPs. Following harassment and inducements from the regime, only 40 MPs remain. They maintain heavyweight ground organisations, however, especially the Mouvement Social pour le Renouveau of ex-Kabila security adviser Pierre Lumbi.

FEDERICO SCOPPA/AFP

WHO WILL RUN?

rumour mill from cycling through the usual run of hearsay, much of which centres on the many years in which Kabila and Katumbi worked together closely. But beyond personal issues, Katumbi’s path to the presidency is complicated by other potential opposition candidates. If he plans to run and win, he would have to, for example, win over the eternal oppositionist Etienne Tshisekedi, whose masses of supporters in the Kasaï provinces and Kinshasa are a real vote bank. Katumbi recognises this, and he recently spent two hours meeting with the ageing Tshisekedi in Brussels. On 30 March, a group of Congolese political parties – known as the G7 and composed of previous Kabila allies – said it wants Katumbi as its presidential candidate. This signals the beginTHE AFRICA REPORT

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ning of the campaign for the November polls, which may yet see the fractured opposition unite around a single man. The former governor refused to accept the G7 endorsement for fear of angering Tshisekedi and the other main Kabila opponent,

Belgian filmmaker Thierry Michel calls Katumbi ‘a blend of Chavez and Berlusconi’ Vital Kamerhe. Kamerhe, who orchestrated Kabila’s successful 2006 election campaign but then, like Katumbi, fell out with the president, did not appear to take the G7 pronouncement lightly. “These questions of personnel will divide us, which will only help the ruling party,” said Kamerhe on French television. “The mo-

Nevertheless, the extent to which the opposition is able to fall behind one candidate is critical to any attempt to dislodge a Kabila clan seemingly set on holding on to power. Optimists point to splinters within that clan, the ambitions of Antoine Gizenga’s Parti Lumumbiste Unifié and other fights for control in the ruling coalition. Katumbi says that he is not willing to countenance the prospect of Kabila delaying the choice of successor this year. One of his lieutenants told Jeune Afrique magazine that the G7 was right to press ahead: “They have to be ready for November, that way they won’t be taken by surprise if the regime tries to hold snap elections.” If he were to win the elections, Katumbi would be the first president without a military background since Mobutu Sese Seko deposed the country’s firstpresident,Joseph Kasa-Vubu, in 1965. Katumbi’s credo on foreign relations in a tense neighbourhood is to follow the lessons of the post-Second World War period. “Europe had understood this well”, explains Katumbi. “In our Great Lakes region, where there are lots of conflicts and wars, there is nearly no cross-border trade. Security needs jobs. We built these jobs along our Angola and Zambia borders even though we had so much violence here in the past.” ● Interview by Nicholas Norbrook in Abidjan

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A KEY PLAYER IN THE CONGOLESE ECONOMY The establishment of the LEON HASSON & FRERE Group in 1936 marked the beginning of a family’s success story, with at its heart, two visionary brothers, Léon and Acher Hasson.Their shrewd ability to grasp the opportunities offered by the country enabled them to build an extensive distribution network: initially through retail shops, not least the famous Kinshasa-based ‘Au Chic’, and then with their first wholesale distribution centre as early as in 1952. Quickly they found success by linking the needs of the population with a wide range of items. Its presence spread in the country, with outlets in Kinshasa , Kananga, Kisangani, Lubumbashi, Matadi, Boma, Goma and Bukavu, in addition to a ‘floating-shop’ along the Congo River to meet the needs of the isolated local population. The brothers followed their success by moving towards industrial activities: first of all to the textile industry with manufacturing plants Linda, Sofatex, Elre and Novatex (draps, tergal, shirts, uniforms and socks); then to electric batteries with the American company Ray-O-Vac’s Electric Storage Battery Company (ESB Inc.). After, in the 1980’s, they started activities in the agri-food industry: food products, (maize, paddy, coffee, rubber, papain, etc...).Their entrepreneurial spirit has contributed to the rise and development of the Congolese economy. Even in times of war, the Hasson Group held a steady course. In 2016, Léon Hasson & Frère became HASSON AFRICA and they maintain their values to their employees: confidence, passion for work and the willingness to learn. Its leaders give opportunities to local staff to train and employ more than hundreds of workers.The HASSON AFRICA Group purchases quality goods across 4 continents, with the aim to offer selected brands that suit the taste of the local people.

THE MOST RECOGNIZED FAMILY BUSINESS IN DRC Respected both locally and internationally, HASSON AFRICA is a dynamic group that has always had faith in Congo’s future. Much to the discontent of colonial authorities, it was founded in 1947 to provide local and European clients diverse products, earning them the respect and friendship

of the founders of independence. With a unique know-how, the Group has been able to develop a real expertise in different sectors such as import, distribution, marketing and real estate.

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REAL ESTATE AND PROPERTY EXPERTISE The import, distribution and marketing activities of HASSON AFRICA is closely linked to the Group’s real estate department.The Group owns two real estate companies (Linda and Build up) managed by the same leaders whose expertise have helped to put together a remarkable portfolio. Several real estate acquisitions in the capital and in the provinces have added an important value to the Group’s assets.

A TOTAL MASTERY OF SOURCING PROCESS, IMPORT, DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETING The Group controls the entire production chain which helps to safeguard supplies and have a better control of customer relations.

DIVERSITY AND HIGH QUALITY GLOBAL BRANDS HASSON AFRICA offers a wide variety of unparalleled products which attracts and retains an increasing number of customers. Their range has 25 000 items. With a long presence in the Congolese market, its know-how is recognised and a flawless grasp of Congolese reality enables the Group to count high-profile international brands among its partners: BEIERDORF (ex : Nivea), KRAFT, Henkel, DIAGEO (Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, etc..), PERNOD RICARD (ex : Chivas), UNILEVER France, KIMBERLEYCLARK, PUMA and FERRERO.

The Group provides the best visibility to brand names which have already selected HASSON AFRICA to be their ‘commercial bridge-head’ in the heart of the secondlargest country in Africa. The total commercial floor space available in Kinshasa makes HASSON AFRICA the sector’s biggest player. It meets massmarket needs, as well as those of the middle class and the upper class. Espace Hasson Central Station is the jewel of Hasson Africa network: it is the first and the most popular commercial center of Kinshasa offering on two floors the biggest variety of services and items in the heart of Africa. Covering 24,000 m2, the Plaza Village offers a wide range of activities, services and leisure in Kinshasa. These include a hypermarket, shops, banks, restaurants, leisure centre for children, petrol station and a secured car-park. The third and the newly born shopping centre of Hasson Africa is KCC (Kitambo Commercial Center) with 2,500 m² of multidimensional space including restaurants and stylish bars.

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HASSON AFRICA SARL chasing behaviours of local consumers. The Group HASSON AFRICA remains true to the pioneering spirit of its founders: moral worthiness and unwavering integrity. HASSON AFRICA has cemented its strong establishment in the DRC, helping to secure the Group’s reputation as the trusted economic partner in the country.

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Professionals choose and bring all the items to the DRC with remarkable efficiency, with the target to turn them into flagship products. Fully open-minded and close to its local market, a dynamic business team promotes products in almost all supermarkets. The Group is well-acquainted with Congolese Marketing and it has a high-level expertise. Having foreseen the emergence of an African middle class, HASSON AFRICA has acted as a pioneer since 2005,replacing its traditional retail floor areas with‘Europeanstyle’ shopping centres. The brands are distributed in supermarkets owned by the Group or third parties, in boutiques, in the Kinshasha central market and also in hotels and restaurants. Today certain brands are distributed in more than 550 sales outlets.

THE LARGEST COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE AND PRO-ACTIVE PROPERTY DEPARTMENT All the hypermarkets are located in the main strategic crossroads of the megalopolis, thereby covering most significant areas.

KITAMBO COMMERCIAL CENTER.

EXCEPTIONALLY DYNAMIC AND PROFESSIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTISES Beyond the acquired expertise in the sector, the Group has consolidated its knowledge of business in different sectors, be it in the management of brands sold, in marketing or studying the pur-

HASSONAFRICA.COM

DIFCOM/DF - PHOTOS : ALL COPYRIGHTS RESERVED.

ESTABLISHED AND UNRIVALLED EXPERIENCE IN WHOLESALE

BUSINESS

REGIONAL INTEGRATION

Trade starts African countries can boost growth by cutting tariffs and removing “soft” barriers to trade, while still supporting their industries without completely protecting them By Nicholas Norbrook in Abidjan

magine you are a Malaysian truck driver. In the back of your truck is a big cargo of stinking durian fruit. The Singaporean border heaves into view. What will happen? Will you pull over and fill out some paperwork? Wait around to get the documents stamped – hours spent in the sun – with your precious durian rotting in the back? Of course not. You whip out your smartphone and send your prefilled cargo passage form. It is immediately routed through the relevant ministries in Singapore. The authorities e-stamp the form and send it back to your smartphone. Beep. Job done. No need to stop. You don’t even need to slow down.

Welcome to Singapore. The benefits of frictionless trading with neighbours seem clear. The farmer buys more inputs with the money saved on transporters, and the consumer gets fruit cheaper, allowing him to spend more on other items and boost the economy. The trucker also has more time to carry other loads. Africa is not quite there yet, and border crossings often involve waiting. Of Africa’s total trade, just 11% of it is done within Africa, compared to 50% intraregional trade in developing Asia and 70% in Europe. The world economy is going through a period of slower growth, just as tens of millions of young THE AFRICA REPORT

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Trucks wait at to cross the border into Zambia at Kasumbalesa in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Africans are entering the job market, so finding new markets in Africa is critical. African Development Bank (AfDB) president Akinwumi Adesina tells The Africa Report that, given the volatility of commodity prices, the continent needs to stop focusing its economic activity on the export of raw materials to foreign markets. “Africa needs to realise that its future lies within the continent,” says Adesina. “The opportunities are here – growing population, rising consumer spending – but we can only start to reap the benefits when we start to integrate our economies.” What can improve regional integration? It is partly about the THE AFRICA REPORT

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11%

The share of Africa’s trade among neighbours is much lower than in developing Asia (50%)

physical infrastructure of trade – investing in intraregional infrastructure, connecting power grids, laying fibre and building roads and bridges across borders. Average transport costs in Africa are now double the world average, according to the United Nations. TEAR DOWN THOSE WALLS

Adesina says that inclusive growth is dependent on bringing down the barriers to Africa’s 15 landlocked countries. “I have just come back from Chad,” he says. “They need infrastructure. They need a rail link to Nigeria. We need to invest heavily in connecting the landlocked countries to the coast.” Some of this is happening, par-

GWENN DUBOURTHOUMIEU FOR JA

at home ticularly in East Africa. Electrical interconnections in the region are expandingatafastpaceasEthiopia ramps up its power exports. New roads linking Addis Ababa and Nairobi have also helped to increase trade flows. Improving intra-African trade, however, is also partly about “soft” infrastructure. On the border, that means getting rid of the endless stamps on documents and the bureaucracythatmakecustomsofficials rich and goods expensive. In economic jargon, these are known as non-tariff barriers to trade. Dealing with this low-hanging fruit can galvanise regional commerce, according to a former governor of Katanga Province in the

BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

another African country faces an average tariff of 8.7%, compared to just 2.5% abroad, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development. ‘SMART PROTECTIONISM’

STUART PRICE/MEAACT PHOTO

Democratic Republic of Congo, Moïse Katumbi. He waived the $50 entry visa, for example, and overhauled border crossing points. “We went from $18m in customs receipts a year to $1.2bn” says Katumbi. “And it’s not just connecting countries with roads that helps [...] but also inside the country. It used to take months to get a truck from a mine to the border of Zambia in my province; now it takes five days.” ‘SOFT’ BARRIERS

TradeMark East Afr ica, a donor-funded trade-facilitation organisation, has done a similar job for Mombasa port. “We got the private logistics players, the freight forwarders, the trucking associations, then all the government players – the port authority, customs, police and so forth – and brought them all together to discuss port issues,” says Abhishek Sharma, director of trade logistics at TradeMark East Africa. “And each of these associations or authorities signed clear pledges on improvement, and each of those pledges had a timeline which is monitored. The entire pledge is called the Mombasa Port Charter.” The results are there. Since the deal was signed in 2014, the clearance time for cargo destined for Kigali has declined from 21 days

to four days. The clearance time for cargo from Dar es Salaam to Kigali has also dropped from 25 days to five. Over the same time period, the cost of clearing a container has dropped from nearly $5,000 to $3,387, according to the organisation. Cartels can also add to trade costs, as illegal monopoly-style business agreements between freight operators keep transport prices high. Lowering barriers to entry for new logistics operators should help, says Sharma. One of those barriers is market information. Another challenge is training new staff. It is easy for big companies like Bolloré to do in-house programmes but much harder for a company with just two trucks. “We are also supporting some infrastructure logistics so that these smaller companies can access third-party warehousing infrastructure so that they can provide the end-to-end solutions that only these bigger companies can currently afford to provide,” says Sharma. Africa still replicates colonial trade patterns — and it’s not just because of the heritage of infrastructure, with railways snaking from mineral deposit to coast. Improving trade between African countriesisalsopartlyabout tariffs. An African firm selling goods to

Mombasa Port, where the public and private sector have worked together to cut clearance times

8.7% Average intra-African tariffs are higher than the international average of 2.5% SOURCE: UNCTAD

There are a multiplicity of new free trade agreements that have been proposed in recent months – for example the Africa Free Trade Zone that links regional economic communities in the south, east and north. It would cover some 26 countries with a combined gross domestic product of $624bn. There are already various regional economic communities, such as the East African Community, the Economic Community of West African States and the Southern African Development Community, which have worked hard to harmonise their tariffs. But there is reasoned resistance to throwing open economies and an age-old tension between building up a strong domestic economy andallowingcompaniesfromother countriesintothemarket. Thistension is magnified when countries are still growing their industrial bases, as is the case with many African countries. The British, to their shame, solved the problem withviolenceduringtheirdevelopmental years by sending gunboats to open markets while maintaining high tariffs on imports. There is no wonder why others are wary. Beijing’s officials, for example, were privately horrified at what happened when Russia’s markets were flung open in the 1990s and resolved to sequence their own opening up more artfully. The Chinese government sometimes opens up sectors to bring in capital and technology, and sometimes it will protect them to build up local capacity. The Singaporeans may well be at the top of the World Bank’s Doing Business rankings, but a top Singaporean official tells The Africa Report that the government could intervene in business if it was required. If faced by a hostile takeover of a Singapore company deemed critical, he says, “then we willstepin.” Thegovernmentcould useTemasek,astate-ownedinvest-

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COMPANIES & MARKETS | BUSINESS

Tunisia Morocco

Algeria

Cabo Verde

Mauritania

Libya

Niger

Burkina Faso Guinea Benin Sierra Côte Ghana Togo Leone d’Ivoire Liberia

GuineaBissau

AMU (African Maghreb Union)

Population*: 53.2 million Regional trade**: 3% Regional GDP**: 340.8 billion dollars

Nigeria Cameroon

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Central African Republic

Republic of the Congo

SOURCE: UNCTAD, IMF, JA

21%

Rwanda Burundi

Latin America

Malawi

50%

Mozambique

Zimbabwe

Madagascar

Botswana Swaziland

Population: 625 million Regional trade**: 10.4% Regional GDP **: 1.0 trillion dollars

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Kenya

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Namibia

COMESA-EAC-SADC (Triparite Free Trade Area)

•

Africa

Angola

Population*: 46.6 million Regional trade: 3% Regional GDP: 81.7 billion dollars (2011)

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11%

Uganda

Zambia

ECCAS (Economic Community of Central African States)

•

Somalia

Comoros

Population*: 325 million Regional trade**: 9.4% Regional GDP**: 311.7 billion dollars

THE AFRICA REPORT

Ethiopia

South Sudan

Tanzania

ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States)

ment fund, if necessary, to protect those interests. France and the United States regularly invoke national security as a reason to block company takeovers, while South Africa and the United Kingdom have recently applied emergency tariffs to protect their steel industries from cheap Chinese imports. Morocco’s finance minister, Mohamed Boussaïd, says that you cannot protect weak industries forever: “In the long term, protectionism will incentivise laziness.” He adds: “You can have strategic sectors, sure, but they can’t be divorced from global realities.” He relates how Morocco’s textile industry was badly battered by a string of free-trade agreements and liberalisation. With help and intervention, the sector was able to reinvent itself and invest in technology. The head of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, Carlos Lopes, advocates this kind of “smart protectionism” – where

Eritrea

Sudan

Chad

Djibouti

São Tomé e Príncipe

Four economic zones

Trading with the neighbours (percentage of exports within regions)

Mali

Senegal

Gambia

Egypt

government industrial policy is meant to mediate rather than displace market forces. “The instruments available today are not the same as when Southeast Asia industrialised, so countries have to be very careful and they have to be pragmatic,” Lopes explains. CREATING VALUE CHAINS

To get beyond these arguments about the openness of economies and kick-start meaningful regional integration, perhaps African leaders should look at building regional value chains. Asia, for example, captures a significant proportion of the value chain of an iPhone, with parts sourced from Indonesia and Taiwan that go to China for assembly. Apple has 349 suppliers in China, 139 suppliers in Japan and 42 suppliers in Taiwan. While Africa may not be able to reach these heights today, there are significant value chains to be developed in the agriculture sector that are certainly in its reach –

South Africa

Lesotho

Asia

70% Europe

*2013 **2007-11

for example addressing Nigeria’s $6.5bn annual food-import bill. This is already happening, suggests the AfDB’s Adesina, pointing to a deal that will see Morocco’s national phosphate company OCP linking up with Nigerian natural gas providers and the Dangote Group to build factories to produce fertiliser. “The future billionaires of Africa will come from Africa,” insists Adesina. And Jean-Louis Billon, Côte d’Ivoire’s commerce minister and a former agribusiness entrepreneur, points to palm-oil value chains and also some less wellknown examples, such as for kola nut. “It is produced in the south of our country,” he says, “but is consumed across all of the Sahel, gets sold into logistics and sales networks, and creates a livelihood for many.” These are the sorts of projects needed to bolster Africa’s industrialisation and link neighbours into virtuous cycles of trade and investment. ●

BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

FOOTBALL

Cashing in on the beautiful game

Huge fan bases on the continent are causing English Premier League clubs to ramp up sponsorship deals with African brands

ozensofArsenalfansgather around a bar in Addis Ababa’s trendy Bole district, chatting and sipping beer. All over town, Ethiopia’s obsession with the ‘Gunners’ is on display: minibuses adorned with the club’s crest speed through busy streets; teenagers selling cigarettes sport Arsenal’s red home kit; and business executives tune in to watch the match at airport lounges. The club, one of the most popular in England’s Premier League, has taken a particular interest in Ethiopia. It signed a three-year sponsorshipdealwithlocalbrewer Dashen Beer in September. Since then, it has been broadcasting commercials showing players doing traditional shoulder dancing and speaking in Amharic. The club also opened a training academy and sent former Arsenal midfielder Ray Parlour to coach young Ethiopian footballers. Back in north London, from his office overlooking Emirates Stadium, Arsenal’s chief commercial officer, Vinai Venkatesham, says the club has homed in on Africa as one of its target regions for expansion. “Africa is really, really high up our priority list,” says Venkatesham. “All of the research we do […] tells us that Africa is where we have a really significant number of fans. We believe we’re the most popular club on that continent.” Africans are the second most common visitors to Arsenal’s website after Europeans. The club’s

TICKER TAPE BANKING Bank of China opens in Mauritius

site attracts about three million African visitors a month, making up 22% of all traffic. Kenya is the largest audience outside of the United Kingdom, and Nigeria is the fifth-largest audience, according to data shared by the club. BANKS AND BEER

Over the past three years, Arsenal has signed a host of sponsorship deals with African banks, brewers and telecoms companies. These include partnerships with Kenya’s Imperial Bank, Nigeria’s Sterling Bank, South African brewer Hansa Pilsener, Kenyan online gambling company SportPesa and telecom company MTN Nigeria. Going forward, Venkatesham says he has prioritised marketing activities in Nigeria,Kenya,EthiopiaandEgypt. The love affair between Ethiopia and Arsenal is just one example of the popularity that teams in the Premier League – the world’s most-watched soccercompetition with total revenues

Fans of English football file out after watching Arsenal v. Man U in a Nairobi slum

Top 10 most profitable football clubs 2014/15 (Total revenues 2014/15, €m) Real Madrid FC Barcelone Manchester United Paris Saint-Germain Bayern Munich Manchester City Arsenal Chelsea Liverpool Juventus

577 560.8 519.5 480.8 474 463.5 435.5 420 391.8 323.9

MINING Glencore to invest $1.1bn in three new copper mine shafts in Zambia

SOURCE: DELOITTE

of £3.4bn ($4.8bn) spread across its 20 teams – enjoy on the African continent. From Manchester United in Zimbabwe to Chelsea in Côte d’Ivoire, more Africans than ever before are forming lifelong allegiances to English football teams. About 300 million Africans are estimated to regularly watch Premier League matches – more viewers than any other region except Asia, according to Repucom, a sport research outfit. After analysing the number of followers that each club has in Africa, social media site Twitter’s head of sport Alex Trickett wrote: “@Arsenal carry their European form into Northern Africa with Morocco – the home of long-departed former Gunner Marouane Chamakh. @ChelseaFC, meanwhile, have a stronghold in Ivory Coast, the

TELECOMS Orange to invest €75m in Nigerian e-commerce group Africa Internet Group THE AFRICA REPORT

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BUSINESS

Masiyiwa, on 17 March. Beginning next season, the deal will make one Saturday afternoon Premier League match available to viewers for free in 50 African countries on the network’s new platform Kwesé Sports. “Premier League clubs enjoy passionate support across sub-Saharan Africa, and these rights are important for ensuring that as many fans as possible can follow and enjoy our competition,” Premier League executive chairman Richard Scudamore told media at the time.

NOOR KHAMIS/REUTERS

TALENT DRAIN

home of Blues legend Didier Drogba (@didierdrogba). Further south, @ManUtd prevail, with South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe turning red.” Africa's Premier Top teams have also attracted League fan base a host of famous African supporters, including Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, who took to Twitter in March to bemoan a string of Arsenal defeats: “Arsenal is still my team! But Leicester is the team to beat for this season’s [English Premier League] trophy.” DANGOTE EYES ARSENAL

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, who says he has supported Arsenal since the 1980s, has said he would like to buy the team. “They are doing well, but they need another strategic direction,” he told the BBC’s Hausa service. Burundi’s President Pierre

Manchester United Chelsea Arsenal SOURCE: PREMIER LEAGUE WEBLINK

AGRICULTURE South Africa’s 2016 maize crop is likely to fall 29% because of drought THE AFRICA REPORT

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Nkurunziza is said to be an ardent Chelsea supporter. Other Premier League teams are zeroing in on African fans as well. After Manchester United made Nigerian telecoms company Globacom its official mobile operator for Benin, Ghana and Nigeria in 2009, it began sending video highlights and match footage to fans’ mobile phones. The club signed similar deals with South African telecoms company MTN in 2010 and Indian giant Airtel Africa in 2014. Chelsea signed partnerships withcommercialbankafb’sKenyan unit in 2013 and Egyptian mobile phone operator mobinil in 2014. That number could swell after the broadcasting rights for Premier League matches in sub-Saharan Africa were bought by Econet Media, owned by Zimbabwean telecoms magnet Strive

OIL Courts place Morocco’s only oil refiner, Samir, into liquidation in late March

Compared to European clubs, teams in African leagues are worth much less money. According to Transfermarkt, the three most valuable clubs on the continent are Egyptian side Al Ahly, which is worth €19.3m, followed by two Tunisian clubs – Espérance Sportive de Tunis, worth €12.8m, and Club Africain with a value of €11.8m.Insub-SaharanAfrica,two South African teams show promise: the Kaizer Chiefs are worth €10.5m and Mamelodi Sundowns are worth €10.4m. If African teams are to grow their market value, they will need to find money to keep the continent’s best players from moving to Europe. African players bring masses of African fans along with them. When the Premier League began in 1992, there were just three African players. That number has since skyrocketed to 57 in the current season. A total of 35 Nigerian players have played in the Premier League, more than any other African nationality. Arsenal’s January 2016 signing of Mohamed Elneny, an Egyptian midfielder, has boosted the club’s popularity in Egypt. “In the run-up to him signing, we saw our Egyptian numbers really start to grow,” says Arsenal’s Venkatesham. “On the day he signed, they completely exploded.” ● Mark Anderson in Addis Ababa

ELECTRICITY The EIB has pledged €117.7m ($132.59) for Côte d’Ivoire’s ENERGOS project

BUSINESS | LEADERS

INTERVIEW

Bassem Loukil Chief executive, Groupe Loukil

There is no magic wand for growth

1976 Mohamed Loukil founds Groupe Loukil

Mindful of the limits on economic growth at home, Loukil heads a new body that seeks to encourage Tunisian companies to invest in and do business with their counterparts in Africa

1983-92 Bassem Loukil takes MBA and works for Coca-Cola in Atlanta, Georgia

n a busy networking bar at the Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan in March, Bassem Loukil outlined the advice he gives to companies wanting to expand on the African continent: “Africa is not for everyone. You have start-ups, for example, and we advise them not to venture out into Africa yet. But those companies that are at least five years old, have mastered their

sector, mastered their product – we strongly advise them to try the African market.” The chief executive of Groupe Loukil – a family-owned Tunisian conglomerate that has businesses across the heavy manufacturing, agribusiness, property and retail sectors – is trying to use his experience to connect Tunisia’s business community with African opportunities. Groupe Loukil has

EYES ON AFRICA

1992 Joins the family business October 2015 TABC launched

12 subsidiaries on the continent outside Tunisia. Loukil is the president of the newly created Tunisia Africa Business Council (TABC), a non-governmental organisation set up to promote cooperation and investment. Like many others around the world, Loukil sees opportunity for his own country’s battered economy in Africa’s decade-long growth surge. “There is no magic wand for growth. We are a small country with no mines, no oil. The only resources we have are the added value from industry, services, tourism. You just need to make the right diagnosis to see that what we need is export markets,” he says. A SLOW START

He is rueful that it has taken Tunisia so long to get to this point. “The TABC has been created to counter the lack of continental vision at government level here in Tunisia. The whole world is turning to Africa and talking about Africa [...] except here in Tunisia, despite there being a great deal of sympathy for post-revolution Tunisia on the continent!” says Loukil. He says that his organisation, created by like-minded THE AFRICA REPORT

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LEADERS | BUSINESS

BE PRAGMATIC

Bassem is convinced that Tunisian companies can still find a place in Africa’s economies. “You have to be pragmatic. There are Chinese companies out there in Africa. There are Turkish companies and Moroccan companies that are ahead of us. There are some sectors that have become hard to enter.” The TABC has already seen some success. A January trip to Mali included a forum in Bamako to promote the 35 Tunisian business leaders who made the journey. “There were no Tunisian officials with us,” says Loukil, “but we were paid a visit by six ministers from Mali and 220 businesspeople from all sectors – higher education, health, manufacturing, sanitation, agribusiness and construction […]. All in all, 17 contracts were signed, including one for a new university to be built in Bamako and others for sales of construction materials, a joint venture for a clinic and a tomatoprocessing plant.” The TABC is set to repeat the performance in Cameroon. “We hire some local consultants and find the Cameroonian companies that are suitable [to do business with] our own companies”, says Loukil. “There is collaboration with the ministry of commerce and industry, with the different chambers of commerce. Then, once we are there, we want to create an event that people can visit.” Though the TABC is a nonprofit institution, Loukil remains a businessman and Groupe Loukil’s subsidiaries will be present on the THE AFRICA REPORT

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Cameroon trip. “We encourage them to lend a hand to the smaller companies, given our longer history in Africa. Beyond that, it’s up to them to defend their economic interests.” Certainly, any orders from outside of the country will come as a relief to the wider Tunisian business community. Growth has flatlined since the revolution in 2011. Several attacks by Islamist militants have weakened the tourism sector, a key foreign-exchange earner. “Democracy is good, but it has to deliver,” says Loukil, who is dismayed at the lack of progress since the overthrow of dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. “Even with freedom of speech, people are spitting on each other.”

APPOINTMENTS

Laurence do Rego Laurence do Rego, who reported on opaque activities during Ecobank’s governance crisis in 2013, was named group executive for commercial banking and takes up her new post in May. She currently works as the bank’s officer bank s chief finance officer.

SURVIVING

The lack of state border controls and the weak collection of customs duties have contributed to the growth of a parallel market that is hurting local retailers and manufacturers, says Loukil. “Customs officers are corrupt. I would say 99% of them. And you have the equivalent of the Internal Revenue Service that only goes after people they know, when actually

“The whole world is turning to Africa, talking about Africa […] except here in Tunisia” the black market is in the heart of Tunis. There is a big market where you can go and buy TV sets and mobile phones under the watch of the government.” To survive, Loukil’s companies either sell out their stocks within a month of a product’s introduction, or compete in areas where they control distribution networks – such as taps and some stainless steel products. For Loukil’s manufacturing businesses, the Africa imperative is critical. “If they didn’t develop exports, they would either have died or been cut in half. So if they are surviving and continuing to develop, it’s mainly thanks to exports. If you depend on the local market, nothing will happen.” ● Interview by Nicholas Norbrook in Abidjan

Shola Adekoya The board of Konga Online Shopping confirmed Shola Adekoya as CEO in March. Adekoya had been interim chief executive after the Nigerian retailer’s founder, Sim Shagaya, stepped down, and its former chief finance and chief operating officer.

Patricia Berthelot In late March, Patricia Berthelot returned to Brasseries du Cameroun to become the brewer’s deputy general manager. She had left in 2010 to join rival Diageo, where she served as a marketing director and managing director in two of the firm’s operations.

businesspeople in October 2015, is now funding trips for small and medium-sized enterprises to other African countries. “For these sorts of companies, it’s an unknown continent and they don’t have the means to travel. So we thought we would create business-to-business trips in African countries where Tunisia has a good reputation so that we can create partnerships for these companies, which sometimes have an extraordinary skill set but don’t how to export it.”

HANNIBAL

ALL PICTURES: ERIC LARRAYADIEU/JA

Taking care of business in Abidjan

It’s the private sector, stupid IN ABIDJAN IN LATE MARCH, Hannibal rubbed shoulders with 1,400 government officials, business executives and journalists at the fourth annual Africa CEO Forum for a spot of networking, deal making and award winning. Not missing an opportunity to make friends in business, Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara told the audience: “We need the private sector. We are for a strong private sector [...] Long live the private sector!” Held at the plush Hotel Ivoire, a cocktail party with hundreds of tipsy executives was followed by a ceremony that saw Oba Otudeko, chief executive of the Honeywell Group of Nigeria, bag the CEO of the Year award. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Neighbourhood business One of the buzzwords of the forum was “regional integration”. Hannibal watched The Africa Report’s managing editor, Nicholas Norbrook, chair a panel on regional political and economic unions. On the panel was the African Development Bank president, Akinwumi Adesina, Morocco’s finance minister, Mohamed Boussaïd, and Moïse Katumbi, a former governor of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Katanga Province. Adesina said: “African economies have to recognise that by integrating you increase economies of scale.” He also urged leaders to fast track the development of free trade areas. Katumbi said regional integration could keep more Africans in the continent’s universities. “We need to be able to study in Africa,” he pointed out.

Land, sunshine and water are not enough HANNIBAL SAW The Africa Report’s editor-in-chief, Patrick Smith, moderating a panel discussion between the presidents of Côte d’Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara, and Ghana, John Mahama. The presidents joked that they would set up their own version of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for West African chocolate exporters and dub it Chocopec. Mahama also said he was disappointed that his country spends $400m on rice imports: “We have land, sunshine and water. I don’t see why we should spend [this money].”

Will you find patriots in Panama? AFTER APRIL’S PANAMA PAPERS revelations, Hannibal chuckled when remembering that Jonathan Oppenheimer, the director of E. Oppenheimer and Son, had said “patriotic Africans don’t move their money abroad,” during one of the Africa CEO Forum’s panels. The leak of documents from a Panamanian law firm show at least 18 people with links to senior African politicians and businessmen using offshore tax havens. That is not how Oppenheimer imagined business and government should work together. He also warned that “urbanisation has the potential to be incredibly destabilising if we can’t get our act together.” Unsurprisingly, he also urged governments and businesses to form “a more constructive dialogue”. THE AFRICA REPORT

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DOSSIER INSURANCE

OLIVIER CULMANN TENDANCE FLOUE

Insurance doesn’t cover breakdowns THE AFRICA REPORT

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Cars flood the

More cars on Morocco’s roads mean more accidents. People are rushing to get their cars insured and companies are offering new types of insurance. The kingdom has the continent’s second-largest carinsurance market, after South Africa’s.

kingdom

By Celeste Hicks in Casablanca

orning rush hour on a rainy day in Casablanca can be tough. There has been an explosion in the number of vehicles on the road in the past few years, thanks to the wide availability of cheap, domestically produced brands like Dacia. At the end of March, car sales had increased by 17.5% over the previous year. This is opening a new boulevard of opportunity for insurers. Bumps and prangs among drivers are a daily occurrence. The development of Morocco’s car insurance industry in recent years has provided some new forms of protection for motorists, or at least their vehicles. Offers from leading companies Saham, Sanad and Wafa promise drivers that as soon as they have an accident, they can go to an approved garage and walk out with a compensation cheque in their hand within three hours. Other premium services send assessors out on motorbikes to the scene of the accident where their training can help to mediate conflicts between the parties. THE AFRICA REPORT

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They can also take the correct standard of photograph and assist motorists in filling out the constat amiable, or accident report, that the insurance companies require. “The speed with which people can get their claims settled has really helped to convince them that car insurance is in their interest,” says Koudama Zeroual, a spokesperson for Wafa Assurance. Currently 86% of all Moroccan car insurance is basic third-party cover, according to Wafa, which is a legal requirement for all drivers. But Zeroual says there is now a clear movement towards more advanced products, with over 20% of Wafa’sbusinesscoveringadvanced packages: “Middle-class drivers are becoming more interested in cover for things like theft, hospital bills and fire damage.” A THIRD OF THE MARKET

The Moroccan insurance market is growing. Four main companies – Wafa, Saham, RMA Watanya and French-owned Axa – control 77% of the market, which was estimated at about Dh30.4bn ($3.2bn) at the end of 2015,

41 % Almost half of the nonlife insurance market in Kenya is for car insurance SOURCE: KPMG

according to the Fédération Marocaine des Sociétés d’Assurances et de Réassurance (FMSAR). Car insurance is one of the most popular products, making up about a third of that figure, around Dh9.5bn, and Wafa says that small claims for cosmetic damage to vehicles make up about 75% of claims recorded. The insurance market has followed where Moroccan banks have led, with insurance companies competing for “proximity” – local branches of the main companies can be seen on street corners across the country, and products are now for sale on company websites and over the phone. “The market has been transformed over the past 20 years” says Abdelkerim Sahbeddine, a director of the FMSAR. “Previously, drivers didn’t bother to make claims because it was an administrative nightmare and took months to get payments authorised; but now they can settle things with one phone call.” The industry’s rosy self-image is not always shared by motorists. Although the basic products are very competitive because the price is regulated by the government, there is a premium on the ● ● ●

DOSSIER | INSURANCE

South Africa: Insurers brace for the deflating rand South Africa’s car-insurance market – which is the largest in Africa and makes up nearly half of the country’s short-term insurance industry — is poised to take a hit from the country’s weakened rand, as rising import costs hit insurers. Car insurers spend most of their money on replacement parts for damaged vehicles, most of which are imported. In the past six years, about 70% of South Africa’s car-insurance claims have been accident-related and 70% of costs relate to car parts, according to the South African Insurance Association (SAIA). “One of the major problems we’re facing at the moment is the weakness of the rand and the exchange rate [against the dollar],” Nico Esterhuizen, the general manager of insurance risks at the SAIA, tells The Africa Report. “That is going to cause some havoc.” South Africa’s rand has been hit by political instability resulting from a scandal over government spending on upgrades to President Jacob Zuma’s private residence. In addition, Zuma’s sudden dismissal of the finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, in December hurt investor confidence. ● Mark Anderson

● ● ● “fast claims” and other supplementary cover options that are out of reach for many drivers. “I have a basic package for my cars, which was easy to arrange,” says Ahmed Bouchara, a tourist transport operator with a small fleet of cars. “But when I last made a claim, it took me several months to get the payment, which was really frustrating. It discourages me from doing it because I can’t plan my expenditure.” This time lag may be one of the reasons why drivers are often reluctant to report the small collisions that happen in rush-hour traffic. What’s more, the police do not attend minor road traffic accidents. And for those who have paid for premium services, holding on to a no-claims bonus is important. Although the FMSAR launched a regulatory body this year, disputes often occur when the accident report has not been correctly filled in or when drivers have fallen behind with payments.

servicedotheyprovide?Theydon’t always do what they say they will.” In a move to improve the products on offer, the industry has developed a nationwide database of individual driver’s claims, which is being used to offer tailored products such as noclaims bonuses and cheaper rates for more experienced drivers. The real competition now exists in these products. “We’re moralising the risk,” says FMSAR’s Sahbeddine. “If you’re a good driver, we reward you for that; if you’re bad, we penalise you.” In this way, Morocco is following strategies that have already been adopted in markets like Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. Despite the teething problems, Morocco’s insurance market is

still significant, second only to South Africa on the continent. Moroccan insurance companies are keen to replicate the success of the country’s main banks in expanding into the sub-Saharan market. Wafa already has a growing presence in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, and FMSAR was involved in a recent major reform of Tunisia’s car-insurance sector. Wafa’s Zeroual explains his company’s vision: “We’re not interested in buying up existing African insurance companies but rather partnering to share experience to help develop new products and to open new branches in the Francophone West Africa market.” Following the playbook of Moroccan economic diplomacy, a number of international forums have been held recently, such as Preventica in Casablanca in March and the Rendez-Vous de Casablanca de l’Assurance in April, at which the FMSAR signed a partnership with the Association des Sociétés d’Assurances de Côte d’Ivoire to help them to develop products such as noclaims bonuses. “When we told our counterparts in Côte d’Ivoire that we can process an entire damage claim in one hour, they thought we were joking,” says Sahbeddine. “Many African countries are still using old systems and we think we can offer them expertise which will revolutionise their industries.” ●

STAKING CLAIMS

According to one independent insurance broker who sought anonymity, more needs to be done to make good on promises the companies have made to assist their clients. “The products on offer are great in principle, and the market has become very competitive in recent years,” she says. “But when I make my choices, I have to know who is serious. Will companies honour their guarantees to help outclients?Whatkindof after-sales

In Morocco claims can be processed within an hour. THE AFRICA REPORT

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ABDELHAK SENNA/AFP

INSURANCE | DOSSIER

INTERVIEW

Paddy Partridge Regional manager for Africa, BIMA

Mobile money will be the way to buy insurance

TAR: What is the potential for mobile insurance in Africa? PADDY PARTRIDGE: Insurance penetration is still incredibly small in most African countries. I think there is a huge opportunity for growth, and that’s why funds like Leapfrog – one of our investors – are able to raise so much money to invest in insurance in Africa. Going forward, I think mobile money will become the preferred payment channel for a lot of operators. Airtime makes perfect sense now, when a lot of customers with a mobile phone have airtime. But I think as you see mobile money mature and people become more accustomed to using it, that will gradually become the preferred payment channel. From a mobile network operator perspective, it’s more attractive to them. There’s no risk of cannibalisation of mobile money through buying airtime. From the central banks’ perspectives in a lot of these markets, they’d prefer to see mobile money being used versus airtime. It’s going to be quite a long transition, but if we look 10-15 years ahead, mobile insurance will primarily be paid by mobile money. Do you see mobile insurance as a way of boosting financial inclusion in Africa? More than 90% of our customers in sub-Saharan Africa haven’t had an insurance product before, THE AFRICA REPORT

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and there hasn’t really been a viable business model outside of micro-insurance. We launched in Ghana five years ago, and we now account for more than 10% of the life insurance policies in the country. These customers never would have been able to have a life insurance product without the mobile element of this. Is pay-as-you-go insurance the future of insurance in Africa? Inmarketswheremobilemoney is very developed, like Tanzania, we’re looking at a model where customers pay upfront using mobile money for, say, two, six or 12 months and then we contact them

We’re looking at a model where customers pay upfront for two, six or 12 months to renew again. I think that’s definitely a very attractive model from a commercial perspective, but also from a customer’s perspective. They don’t have to worry about a lapse in their coverage. Having said that, the best way of targeting the mass market is through this pay-as-you-go model where you canbreakdownthepremiumsinto really small, affordable amounts. Then our customers don’t really feel the cost of the premium, but they know that every month they have life insurance.

BIMA uses mobile platforms to bring insurance to those who have never had it before. It is implanted in Ghana, Senegal and Tanzania and has more than 20 million customers worldwide The challenge is finding the payment channels that enable very small amounts to be deducted in a cost-effective way. Airtime is one of them. But otherwise, to do it from a bank account or something like that, it’s not so effective. On mobile money, a lot of operators don’t want to have deductions from a subscription-type model coming from a mobile wallet. Who do you see as your main competitors? Our biggest competitor is definitely MicroEnsure, who are also partnering with mobile operators. Their model is quite different to ours. Ours is very distribution-led and includes financial education. MicroEnsure’s model is to go very big on the ATL [above the line] marketing and encourage customers to sign up. Their product is primarily free – like a loyalty product for the mobile network operator – whereas ours is entirely paid for by the customer. We have different models, but if we’re going to an operator to discuss a partnership MicroEnsure is often the competitor that the operator mentions. In terms of customer volumes, globally they’re the only company that’s really that close to us. We’re startingtoseetraditionalinsurance players going into the micro space andalsoformingpartnershipswith mobile operators. ● Interview by Mark Anderson

DOSSIER | INSURANCE

ANALYSIS

‘Green fields’ of insurance growth Africa’s insurance markets are expanding more slowly than other emerging regions’, but major groups are looking to enter new markets, which could speed things along

fricaninsurersarestillwaiting for rising incomes to transform their bottom lines. The growth of insurance premiums in sub-Saharan Africa slowed to 4.2% last year, as lower globalcommoditiespricesdragged it down from 5% in 2014, according to reinsurance company Swiss Re. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have the weakest growth in its non-life insurance premiums of all regions in the emerging markets, with 3% growth over the next two years. This is slower than the trend for emerging markets, which are projectedtopostnon-lifepremium growth of 7.9% this year and 8.7% next year, Swiss Re says. The value of South Africa’s insurance market continues to be significantly higher than other markets on the continent, with an estimated $51.6bn worth of insurance premiums in 2013 (see map). This dwarves Morocco’s industry, Africa’s next-most valuable, which was worth $3.2bn, and Africa’s third-mostvaluable,Egypt’s,which was worth $1.9bn. While other areas of the continent are drawing

interest from insurers, it will be a longtimebeforeothermarketsmature to the level of South Africa’s. The slowdown in commodities prices could mean African insurers have to wait even longer for markets to grow, but there are bright spots. With surging middle-class populations, Nigeria and Kenya’s markets are likely to grow in the coming years. Nigeria’s market is underdeveloped, with a value lower than 0.5% of its overall gross

‘There are still enormous opportunities if you’re there at the right time’ domestic product, according to research from Business Monitor International. (Swiss Re put it at 3%.) That potential for growth is not lost on South African financial services groups, which are looking for expansion opportunities. “The majorgroupsinAfricaareseriously entering North Africa and East Africa,” says Dawie Buys, manager of risk at the South African Insurance Association. “They actually

Markets on the move The volume of insurance premiums in sub-Saharan Africa has been steadily rising since the turn of the century, growing from just more than $2bn in 2000 to a forecast of more than $16bn this year. Non-life insurance makes up the bulk of the premiums, with about $11bn worth of coverage. Insurance growth in sub-Saharan Africa

300

% real growth (line graph) Non-life Non-life Life

Mark Anderson

250

Life

200 150

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

100

Number of mobile money platforms by global region Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia SOURCE: GSMA

22 $bn (bar graph) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2002 2004

call Kenya and Nigeria ‘the green fields’ and they have bought companies [there]. There’s a lot of capital available through these bigger groups, and there’s an appetite [to expand],” Buys adds. With a struggling economy at home, it is no wonder South African financial institutions are looking to the rest of the continent for profits. South Africa’s market, which comprises about 90% of sub-Saharan Africa’s life and health insurance premiums, is likely to post moderate growth this year because of its economic woes, according to Swiss Re. Accelerating growth could be down to improving mobile distribution and micro-insurance. Moroccan insurers like Saham and Wafa Assurance and their South African peers Old Mutual, Standard Bank Africa and Liberty have begun to show interest in expanding into new Africa markets. “There are still enormous opportunities if you’re there at the right time. I think these stories are still being written,” concludes Buys. ●

Micro is the means Smartphones have been a boon to some Africa-focused insurers. Their growing affordability has helped boost the rise in mobile money platforms. In 2014, there were more than 250 mobile money platforms around the world, the likes of M-Pesa, Zaad and M-Birr in sub-Saharan Africa making up more than half of them.

SOURCE: SWISS RE

50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 THE AFRICA REPORT

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0.8

1.9

22.3 0.7

TUNISIA

MOROCCO

84.7 271.4

77.3 1.8

10.9 47.0

3.2

96.8 3.1

32.9 103.8

INSURANCE | DOSSIER

40.1 0.7

37.9

208.8

169.3 521.4

EGYPT

1.5

2.8

NIGERIA

6.0

47.4 0.9

570.3

KENYA

23.7 124.2

1.1

Africa’s top 10 insurance markets

1.5

36.4

9.7 0.3

1.6

41.8 55.2

ALGERIA

Insurance premiums ($bn)

1.3 11.9

437.2 7.2

ANGOLA

Population (millions)

1.0

Density (premiums per capita, $)

2.2 13.1

GDP ($bn)

51.6

NAMIBIA

Population (millions)

GDP ($bn)

Density (premiums per capita, $)

Penetration (premiums as % of GDP)

Top ten total

64.9

457.9

1,723.4

141.7

3.7

Other countries

4.9

628.7

652.0

7.9

0.8

Total

69.9

1,086.4

2,375.6

64.4

2.9

Africa Excluding South Africa

18.3

1,033.3

2,009.3

17.7

0.9

Health on hold The growth of life and health premiums in sub-Saharan Africa has been slowing since 2013, when these forms of insurance grew by about 6%. Growth in this sector is expected to continue at the current pace of 3%. In comparison, emerging Asia is expected to post 13% growth over the same period.

SOUTH AFRICA

Protecting property Non-life premiums — like homeowner and automobile cover — are projected to grow fastest in emerging Asia, where these products have hovered around 13% growth every year since 2013. Non-life policies in Sub-Saharan Africa are growing around 5%. In the Middle East and North Africa, they are growing slightly above 5% per year.

Life & health real premium growth

Non-life real premium growth by region

15% 2015E 2016F 2017F E: estimate F: forecast

2013

Emerging Asia

Middle East and North Africa

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SubSaharan Africa

Advanced markets

2014

10%

2015E 2016F 2017F E: estimate F: forecast

SOURCE: SWISS RE

2014

SOURCE: SWISS RE

2013

SOURCE: SWISS RE

53.2

Insurance premiums ($bn)

366.2

970.8 14.1

Penetration (premiums as % of GDP)

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

0.7 MAURITIUS

0% -5% Emerging Asia

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America

Central and Eastern Europe

SubSaharan Africa

Advanced markets

ART & LIFE

Tahar Ben Jelloun

LITERATURE

‘Sexuality is omnipresent in the Arab world’ In his new book Le Mariage de plaisir, Moroccan literary giant Tahar Ben Jelloun breaks the silence of taboos, from infidelity and sexual intimacy to the inherent racism in the country of his birth By Léo Pajon

n the walls of the prestigious Parisian publishing house, Gallimard, Tahar Ben Jelloun’s portrait hangs between that of Boualem Sansal (2015 Grand Prix du roman de l’Académie française) and the framed letters of Michel Tournier. The most famous Moroccan writer in France, if not the world, appears comfortable in the midst of his illustrious colleagues, smiling slightly and sport-

ing a felt hat, blue scarf, and a salt and pepper beard. In France – his chosen home, and the country of his chosen language – he is part of the literary establishment. But Ben Jelloun is far from complacent, and his pen is as sharp as it ever was in piercing, in beautiful prose, the hypocrisies of the country and religion of his birth. Born in Fez in 1944 and educated in French and Arabic, Ben Jelloun took part in student protests against police ● ● ●

BRUNO LĂ&#x2030;VY FOR JA

Tahar Ben Jellounâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s all-seeing eye is forever trained on Morocco; his stories shine a light on what society wants to conceal

Love and the teachings of Islam are not always in perfect symmetry

Let’s not ignore the racism of Africans In his books and journalism Tahar Ben Jelloun has condemned racism and policies of exclusion in France. This time, by portraying Moroccans as people who generally believe they are superior to black Africans, he shows that Morocco is also steeped in discrimination. “Our society is no exception,” he explains. “This type of racism has long existed. We must not forget that as late as the 1920s, there was a slave market in Fez (slavery was officially abolished in Morocco in 1922). Today, the sub-Saharans who try to cross the Strait of Gibraltar are given virtually no support whatsoever [by Moroccans]. There have been incidents of large-scale violence, sometimes

resulting in deaths. More than 20,000 prospective emigrants have been registered into the [Moroccan] state system over the past two years, but there are still thousands of undocumented migrants who are subject to indignities. Finding a house or a job as a black man is also very difficult.” According to Jelloun, even if there are prominent black Moroccan personalities such as Ahmed Snoussi (Morocco’s permanent representative to the UN between 1992 and 2001), there’s still much work to be done to change people’s mindsets so that Arabs and sub-Saharans can live harmoniously in a country that is increasingly forging partnerships south of the Sahara. ● L.P.

● ● ● brutality and was sent to military camp as punishment. He published his first book of poetry in 1971 and shortly afterwards moved to Paris. Since being awarded the prestigious Goncourt prize for The Sacred Night in 1987, he has published 53 works of prose, novels, short story collections and essays, all written in French. Racism Explained to My Daughter, his best-selling book to date, sold nearly 400,000 copies. But in spite of this, he is not out to please anyone, “just to speak openly about what others wish to keep hidden”. A seasoned interviewee, in person Tahar Ben Jelloun is relaxed, knowing exactly what he wants to say about his latest novel, Le Mariage de plaisir. In the many newspaper and talk show interviews he has given, journalists have been asking him more or less the same questions, and he has given more or less the same answers. THE AFRICA REPORT

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ALEXA BRUNET/TRANSIT/PICTURETANK

ART & LIFE

Beginning in the 1950s, this tale, spanning more than half a century, tells the story of Amir, a successful merchant from Fez who finds love with Nabou, a young Fula woman in Dakar. The plot allows Ben Jelloun to address the issues of satisfaction in a relationship, polygamy, prostitution and sex in Islam, as well as the inherent racism of Moroccans towards black Africans. LÉO PAJON: The central theme of your novel is a ‘traveller’s marriage’. What does it involve? TAHAR BEN JELLOUN: It’s a short-term marriage contract permitted by Islam. Moreover, Amir, the hero of the story, consults a professor of theology, who justifies this type of relationship using the Koran’s sura 24 verse on women. It is legal for a man who travels long distances without his wedded wife to contract this type of temporary relationship and avoid being tempted by prostitutes. Roughly speaking, you can be intimate with other women and remain within the confines of the religion without having a guilty conscience!

practice seems impossible! So in my view a good Muslim can’t be polygamous. In the novel the situation is complicated even further by the fact that the lawful wife feels humiliated by having a black woman as a rival. Parts of your book are very crude, such as when Amir and Nabou make love, or when Amir’s son Karim, who has Down’s syndrome, hugs a young woman so tightly that he ejaculates in his gandoura, his tunic dress. Did you ever try to censure yourself? No, not any more than I set out to shock for the sake of it. Sexuality is omnipresent in the Arab world no matter what people say. I’ve written about this before: even Islamists’ obsessions revolve around women and the female body. But there’s a great deal of hypocrisy in the fact that although everything is prohibited, it is tolerated as long as it is kept out of sight and not discussed. What did you think about the banning of director Nabil Ayouch’s film Much Loved in Morocco? I’ll tell you what I find most outrageous: The majority of Moroccans are not shocked that women sleep with brutish men for money, but they are shocked that it can be shown openly. I don’t understand this mindset.

When Amir realises he loves Nabou, he is anguished. You write: ‘To be in love is considered a weakness, something of an anomaly.’ Further on you add: ‘Being in love is not something you admit to. Men talk about physicality but seldom express their feelings.’ Did you take inspiration from other Hiding your feelings is still common writers? For example Malek Chebel in contemporary Moroccan society. and Fatima Mernissi’s books explore Feelings are not discussed, let alone issues related to fulfilment in Islam. shown. My parents never kissed in front of me, nor Moroccans are not shocked do my brothers and their that women sleep with wives. Anything intimate is deemed a private matter. brutish men for money, but It’s even worse for a man. To admit that you’re in love is because it is shown openly to lose the upper hand and your male power. Boys are brought up, We are indebted to them because they’ve clarified things by showing that often by their mothers, in the myth of Arab society in the past – even at the masculinity, so that any man showing time of the Prophet – was freer and tenderness to his wife would be seen more open than it is today. However, as weak and lose face ! to be honest, my main inspiration was [poet and first president of Senegal, Amir tries to live with Nabou, who has awakened his love and sensuality, and Léopold Sedor] Senghor’s poem ‘Black his legitimate wife. But it soon turns to Woman’ from his collection of poems disaster. Does this reflect your views Chants d’Ombre. His writing is beaution polygamy? ful and full of sensuality. I also wanted The Koran allows men to marry up to talk about pleasure and physicality. to four wives but says that you should As writers, it’s our role to expose what be able to treat and love them equally, society is trying to conceal. ● This article first appeared in Jeune Afrique. in both quantity and quality, which in THE AFRICA REPORT

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Selected bibliography

The Sand Child (1985) Johns Hopkins Ben Jelloun’s first literary success, L’Enfant du Sable is the story of a girl brought up as a boy to thwart Islamic law.

The Sacred Night (1987) Johns Hopkins The Prix Goncourtwinning sequel to The Sand Child journeys through allegory and surrealism to critique Moroccan society.

Racism explained to my daughter (1998) The New Press The international bestseller came out of real conversations Ben Jelloun had with his 10-year-old daughter.

This Blinding Absence of Light (1998) The New Press Winner of the IMPAC Dublin award, based on the testimony of a former inmate of Tazmamart prison.

Le Mariage de plaisir Gallimard, 2016 Ben Jelloun’s 15th book, published by Gallimard, addresses sexuality and hypocrisy in Morocco through the story of a ‘traveller’s marriage’.

ART & LIFE

EXHIBITIONS

NAIROBI | KENYA For its annual East African focus, Circle Art Gallery shines a spotlight on Uganda. Of the 10 artists, many are showing in Kenya for the first time. circleartagency.com

MOSHEKWA LANGA 14 Apr. – 28 May CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA Amsterdam-based South African artist Moshekwa Langa’s first solo show at the Stevenson Gallery. stevenson.info

VINCIANE JACQUET FOR TAR

KAMPALA CONTEMPORARY 14 Apr. – 14 May

A clothes trader returns to the street after fleeing from police with his merchandise

Neighbourhoods Under the radar A foray into the chaotic world of Cairo’s street traders, threatened by the march of real-estate developers

I MOSHEKWA LANGA

CAUGHT IN THE WEB Until 29 May ACCRA | GHANA Young Ghanaian artist Fatric Bewong reshapes recycled materials into fusions of colour and texture for her first solo exhibition at Nubuke Foundation. nubukefoundation.org

DAK’ART 3 May – 2 June DAKAR | SENEGAL 65 artists will be showing at the 12th edition of the international exhibition, curated by artistic director Simon Njami. dakart.net

n downtown Cairo, a few metres off a roaringly loud street, Ahmed stands behind his fruit cart. He is dressed in a long jalabiya, an item of clothing usually worn for Friday prayers or by people living outside the city, but Ahmed was born in the heart of Cairo 60 years ago in the Maspero Triangle. Long neglected by the government, the informal settlement sits on the Nile waterfront in a prime location that developers are keen to get their hands on. Over the past few years lawyers, architects and activists have struggled to protect the area against investors and real-estate developers. A renovation plan that the Egyptian government recently approved includes financial

compensation and ways to make it easier for the original inhabitants to keep living in the renovated area. “Of course I’d prefer to stay”, Ahmed says. “I have worked here for the past 45 years, 15 years on this very spot in Wikalat al Balah. Before, I had a real shop on the other side of the main road, inside the Maspero Triangle. But my building collapsed. People are supposed to get compensated, the revolution changed things maybe.” Even if he does receive compensation it is unlikely that Ahmed would be able to afford the area’s new rents. Wikalat al Balah is full of second-hand clothes in tiny shops and on racks on the pavement or the road itself. A throng of young men comes crashing by with a concert of cries and

BOOK REVIEWS

Born on a Tuesday Elnathan John Cassava Republic Born on a Tuesday is the debut novel of two-time Caine prize finalist and satirist Elnathan John. It is also the literal translation of the name Dantala, the protagonist in

one of those stories – ‘Bayan Layi’ – and the novel itself. We follow the young almajiri (a child who leaves home for quranic studies) as he makes his way through the post-election landscape of northern Nigeria, trying to survive in the face of a growing jihadist movement.

Born on a Tuesday is a linear story told by a barely educated protagonist in a style

we have seen many times. It is the voice of Darling in NoViolet Bulawayo’s We Need New Names, and Agu in Uzodinma Iweala’s Beasts of No Nation, and it suffers from the burden of finding a delicate balance between the author’s intrusive intellect and the language of its protagonist.

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ART & LIFE

Sophie Anmuth in Cairo

While the story may seem familiar, even predictable, it excels in its exploration of religious insurgency, family and loyalty. It skips along at a brisk pace, confident in its research, luxuriating in its knowledge of the geography, culture and language that form THE AFRICA REPORT

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the canvas of the hero’s story. There may be a few cut-out phrases worthy of Facebook status updates, but in its unadorned style Born on a Tuesday is a commendable debut achievement for a clearly talented author. ● Eboka Chukwudi Peter

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Food There’s more to life than jollof rice Food bloggers are at the forefront of a new wave of creativity in the Nigerian kitchen

hissing wheels, dragging and pushing clothes racks. Time and time again the clothes racks run back and forth. “They’re arresting us,” 16-year-old Abdi exclaims. “They’re taking our merchandise.” In recent months the authorities have been trying to get rid of Cairo’s street-sellers from the capital’s main arteries. Some of the sellers have agreed to move to an empty car park behind a deserted tourist bus station in Turgoman in downtown Cairo. “The problem is no one knows we’re here,” one of them says. Most of them only try the spot for a couple of weeks before scattering all over Cairo. For now Ahmed’s age and trade keep the police away. Nevertheless, he has little sympathy for the clothes sellers, whose business he deems “illegal” and “improper”. Ahmed starts his work day with a visit to a suburban industrial market to buy fruit. He sells anything that’s in season: for the first part of the year it’s apples and mandarins. “There used to be apples from Syria and Lebanon. Not anymore,” he pauses. “The wars.” Whenhefinisheswork12hourslater,Ahmed covers his cart with the remaining fruit and puts it in a garage. He takes public transport to another working-class area of Cairo, Imbaba. It is far but that’s where the rest of his family lives. One of his sons works abroad, in a hotel. Another is a fruit-seller in Imbaba. The family runs several tiny kiosks. This evening, Ahmed shares jokes and tea with one of his neighbours and a young shoe-shiner who shies away from new visitors. The area is home to many people who are trying to work their way up. “I’m a student at Al-Azhar University,” the young man says. “I only take the final exams, and the rest of the time I work in Cairo. I would be ashamed if my fellow classmates knew what I do for a living.” ●

or Nigerian cuisine, Lagos is the centre of the world. Be it purple coco yam from the East or tiger nuts from the North, ingredients from all over the country at at your fingertips. “Most Nigerians tend to shop for food as they need it,” says Affiong Osuchukwu, a food photographer, blogger and recipe developer. “So the concept of fresh is something we do naturally.” If the ingredients are there, however, inspiration can come from all over the globe. Bloggers from home andabroadarechangingperceptions of Nigerian food with new, refreshing takes on familiar flavours. “[It’s] amazing being surrounded by food enthusiasts who can create on international levels and who grew up around the same kind of meals that I had,” says Chef Imoteda of Heels in the Kitchen (hitkitchen.com) . “We can turn the meals of our youth to exportable cuisine to be enjoyed in any part of the world.” Nigerian cuisine often relies heavily on meat, but Tomi Makanjuola of The Vegan Nigerian (vegannigerian. com) shows you can cook vegan without losing the richness and vibrancy of Nigerian foods. In Canada, ChiO, who blogs her recipes at Oya

Poached pawpaw in spiced syrup Peel and dice just-ripe pawpaw, roughly 2 cups. Make a sweet syrup by combining 2 cups water, 5-10 fresh scent leaves, 2 small knobs of bashed ginger and 4 crushed cardamom pods in a pot. Bring to the boil and let cook for about 5 minutes, adjusting syrup to taste. Discard the wilted leaves and aromatics. Add the diced pawpaw and simmer for 2-3 minutes. Serve in a bowl with ice cream and grated lime zest.

Come Chop (oyacomechop.com), was originally motivated by weight loss to start devising lighter, delicious variations on Nigerian food. Desserts are another way to be creative, using, for instance, scent leaves, a traditional soup herb (see recipe). Osuchukwu thinks Nigerian food has the potential to become global just as Indian and Thai food has: “We just need to help the world understand it better,” she says. I couldn’t agree more. ● Ozoz Sokoh in Lagos and on kitchenbutterly.com

LIFESTYLE BEHIND THE SCENES

TWITTER TRENDS #VGMA #VGMA2016 Ghanaians tweeted their outrage when the Vodafone Ghana Music Awards omitted Shatta Wale from the nominees. For the singer, the lyrics of his 2013 hit ‘Me No Need No Award’ still stand.

Velma Rossa & Papa Petit

Nii Apa A. A. @niiapa

#VGMA’s without Shatta Wale is like #Avengers without Robert Downey Junior addomikes @addomikes1

Seriously der should be anoda body organizing a different award 4 our hard worki musicians.dos who rili diserve it. this #VGMA2016 is wack black stallion @dannygh_

When DBlack is ranting for no #VGMA nominations mak kojo sena oliver @senaanu

The album of the year category dier....Some people got nominated cos their managers were on the board...smh #VGMA2016 MC Akakpo @IamAkakpo

Oh Charter House! Why you people disqualify Shatta Wale? He is recording your diss song by now. Wait on it...... #VGMA2016 #NoShattaWale Blakofe @bkghana

#ShattaWale disqualification from the VGMA proves one thing - Charter House only award friends, people they like or need. #NoApology

2manysiblings – brother and sister Papa Petit and Velma Rossa – are Kenya’s premier ‘stylepreneurs’. w Who is your style crush? Papa Petit (PP) Poggy the Man [street style icon and United Arrows & Sons director]. Velma Rossa (VR) My 19-year-old mum. I draw inspiration from looking through her old photo albums, because she was so badass!

What are you listening to? PP ‘Live and Die in Afrika’ by Sauti Sol. VR Well, right now I’m listening to the wind as I’m on top of a roof in Johannesburg responding to these questions…

What is your greatest extravagance? PP A pair of Yohji Yamamoto sneakers I got recently. VR This vintage silk fabric that I bought three metres of… The price was eye-watering but so worth it.

What is your favourite holiday destination? PP Malindi. VR Well, in my mind, it needs to be Cuba.

What was the last hashtag you used? PP #2manysiblings VR #notstarbucksbutitwilldo

Which fashion item would you like your sibling to throw away? PP Not throw away, but rather give me some of her rings that I like [laughs]. VR He needs to shave his legs! Interview by Josephine Opar THE AFRICA REPORT

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20 – 21 June 2016 Lancaster London Hotel, London, UK www.oilandgascouncil.com

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LIFESTYLE MANUEL ROMARIS/GETTY IMAGES

TRAVEL NAMIBIA

CRISTIAN OBARNI

3 MARIA ADELAIDE SILVA/GETTY IMAGES

Laid-back living among the dunes Beach, beauty and beer, and some extraordinary landscapes – Namibia has it covered for a relaxed trip to the desert

amibia is well-known for its traditional heritage. The Herero and Himba people, who spread red clay on their bodies, attract many tourists annually. But tourism is not the country’s mainstay. Namibia is one of the world’s largest producers of uranium, and aside from mining is a largely agricultural country with many people living on subsistence farming, particularly in the rural areas towards the north. Retail is now making its mark with a beachside mall being built in Swakopmund, and for serious beer aficionados Namibia is heaven: the country’s capital, Windhoek, is synonymous with brewing. Namibia’s disturbing history with its former colonial masters, Germany, is not widely reported, but the German names of buildings and places have left their legacy.

Deadvlie (1)

Windhoek

Walking up the sand dunes into Deadvlie feels like walking onto a painting. The colours are vivid; the thorn trees stand dramatically against the orange of the sand, the blueness of the skies and the white of the clay pan. It’s a breathtaking experience.

If you enjoy the buzz of busy cities like Johannesburg or Lagos then Namibia’s capital, Windhoek, may not be for you. Even on New Year’s Eve, street parties are very laid-back. Locals will point you to Chez Temba, which has more than 40 branches

on the continent. The club is pumping with house and kizomba music – exactly what is needed to party until dawn. Taste local beers over dinner at Joe’s Beerhouse, chill at the Hilton Hotel for afternoon drinks on the pool-deck and be sure to visit many of the small cafes and markets around the city.

Etosha National Park (2) On the flat, saline desert of the Etosha pan, the park rewards visitors with a concentration of big game and a relaxing viewing experience: if you want to just chill in the camp you can still watch elephants at one of the watering holes. On any day of game viewing you can see lions, giraffes, zebras and impalas. There are several, mainly luxury,accommodationoptions, ranging from an old fort to stilted cabins or tents, with swimming pools, friendly staff and decent food.

Fish River Canyon From the main viewpoint of Fish River Canyon all you can see for miles are big cracks in the earth that go deep into the crust and stretch wide as though a giant took a knife, to the earth and never stopped cutting. Yet, it feels strangely peaceful with only the sound of birds and the occasional chatter from tourists interrupting the serenity.

Swakopmund (3) The coastal city of Swakop – as the locals call it – is really chilled, but has its fair share of desert thrills. A three-tofour-hour drive away from Windhoek, you can go skydiving or quad-biking on the dunes or even camel riding. There are lovely seaside restaurants serving cocktails. Keep your eye out for the cute food truck Fork and Nice, and if you see it order the pulledpork sandwiches.

THE AFRICA REPORT

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DAY IN THE LIFE

THE FATOU BLOG

EXTRAORDINARY STORIES OF ORDINARY PEOPLE

OLIVIA ACLAND FOR TAR

Fight not flight When Ebola hit Sierra Leone, activist Fatou Wurie stood her ground, creating a space for women to overcome their challenges in the aftermath of the virus

was born in Bo, Sierra Leone, where I was raised by my grandmother, but when I was about three my dad got an international job and we moved to Zambia. Afterwards, we lived all around the world. At 18 I graduated from the International School of Islamabad in Pakistan and then went to Canada for university. Everywhere I went I wasn’t enough. In North Africa I was too black, and not Muslim enough; in Asia I was too black, too fat. In North America I was dealing with race and religion. It was always being the foreigner that made me want to embrace being Sierra Leonean. After I graduated I got up one day and thought: “I can’t be sitting here talking about the African experience and African discourse without really having discovered my roots.” So for the first time in over 20-something years, in 2011, May 10, my birthday, I landed in Sierra Leone. There is a divide between Sierra Leoneans who stayed during the war and those who weren’t there: “You did not see this, you did not feel fear. Now you’re coming here with your accent and your access and you wanna tell us how to live?” There was no way, when Ebola hit Sierra Leone, that I’d pack my bags and go and sit somewhere. So I stayed. I was there in the fight playing my part. Ebola is a poverty-driven disease that disproportionately affects women, who are nurses, who are community leaders, who are mothers; it affects them and I just felt like we didn’t do enough for our women. The healthcare system crumbled. Antenatal visits went down, delivery

MAMAYE AFRICA

at health facilities went down, access to sexual reproductive services went down. Women and girls were getting pregnant and dying. So that’s where the Survivor Dream Project [SDP] started, I wanted women to know that they weren’t alone. We provide a safe space for the women to discuss sexual reproductive rights and domestic violence. We have ‘eating right’ programmes and wellbeing inspiration classes. We also do skill-set training where they learn to take their businesses to the next level, as many of them are petty traders. [The women’s] stories will be used for a policy paper on how Ebola affected women’s lives. As a country we are moving on, but I think we are forgetting a little too quickly. When Sierra Leone first met its 42 days, there was a huge celebration. While everyone who wasn’t directly impacted by Ebola was out there dancing and making speeches, my women were crying. Some of them left, they were like: ‘You can stand there and dance and celebrate and talk about Ebola ending, it hasn’t ended for us.’ Salamatu is 16 years old, she lost her mother, her father and her four siblings, the world can move on but she can’t. There’s a lot of trauma in the world, but how you channel that into something that creates positive social change is what I’m interested in. My art – writing and spoken word – and my work are not separate, they are a complete expression of who I am, where I’ve been and what I want to see. ● Interview by Billie McTernan THE AFRICA REPORT

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Congo Airways is the newly established flight carrier of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Fleet : 4 modern aircrafts (Two Airbus A320 & Two Bombardier Q400)

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A S U P P LE ME NT TO THE AFR I CA R E PO R T NÂ°80

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editorial

THE AFRICA REPORT | MONEY SUPPLEMENT MAY 2016

BY NIC CHOLAS NORBROOK

CONTENTS

Th he long, hard slo og ahead

03 EDITORIAL The long, hard slog ahead 04 INTERVIEW Akinwumi Adesina The AfDB president tells The Africa Report about the continental bank’s priorities, from agriculture to electricity and infrastructure

elcome to a new editorial project from The Africa Report: Money. From the global migrations of bulge-bracket investors to the modest contributions of microfinance, the publication will follow finance as it strengthens Africa’s economies. Marvel, as long-tenor finance builds cities out of mortgages in Nigeria. Wonder, as East African bankers transform cyber dreams into realworld businesses. But understanding the provenance of money, as highlighted by the Panama Papers scandal, can be as critical as seeing what it is used for. Witness South African bankers drop the controversy-hit Gupta family’s accounts like they are hot. Witness Kenyan regulators squirm as the third bank in eight months – Chase Bank – is placed into receivership. This is not an idle, liberal utopia of greater transparency driving better behaviour. Better corporate governance is not just an end in itself – although the moral dimension is there and unarguable. Improved governance will also drive better results, allowing the financial system to do what it should do best, the alchemy of intermediation – taking long-term savings to fund today’s opportunities. As Karim Sadek, a managing director at Egyptian investment fund Qalaa Holdings, tells us, this is where African banks are failing. Having to raise more than $150m to refit a railway, Sadek soon discovered that he had to turn to foreign funders, where he was charged

08 WHO’S WHO Fifty influential African financiers Our run-down of a new generation of bankers and innovators who are staking their claims to Africa’s burgeoning financial markets 20 TOP 100 Africa’s bigest banks and bosses The CEOs and MDs driving change in Africa’s financial institutions 22 VENTURE CAPITAL Waiting for lift-off in Kenya’s ‘Silicon Savannah’ 26 INTERVIEW James Mworia The CEO of Centum Investment on growth potential in Kenya’s health, education and agribusiness sectors

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11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 1 Abiola Bawuah 2 Arif Naqvi 3 Akinwumi Adesina 4 Ahmed Ghazali 5 Arunma Oteh 6 Charles Kié 7 Tshepidi Moremong

8 Clergy Simatyaba 9 Viola Llewellyn 10 Daniel Matjila 11 Chinelo AnohuAmazu 12 Hannington Namara 13 Hisham El Khazindar 14 Segun Agbaje 15 Patrick Njoroge 16 Hela Cheikhrouhou 17 Joshua Oigara 18 Sipho Moyo 19 Oscar Onyema 20 Vera Songwe 21 Pravin Gordhan 22 Zeinab Hashim

a 6% interest rate. “If I had gone to get this money from Kenya, I would have found a 15-year loan in local currency […] but it would have cost me anywhere from 14% to 16%.” African economies need their banks to step up now more than ever. The years ahead will be a tough slog. Though African oil exporters were not the only ones caught out by the fall in commodity prices – witness the recent credit downgrade of Saudi Arabia – many administrations face a serious fiscal crunch. With governments being such large spenders, this downturn will remove a large proportion of the cash circulating in these economies, to say nothing of local banks exposed to the sector. Already, the World Bank reduced its sub-Saharan growth forecast to 3.3%, largely driven by China’s withdrawal from commodity markets. In the last quarter of 2015, China grew at its slowest pace for 25 years. The International Monetary Fund warns of a couple of bumpy years ahead. In January Elmer Funke Kupper, then head of the stock exchange in Australia – a country exposed to China’s commodity appetites – sounded the alarm that the world’s $200trn debt burden risked hurting emerging markets. So it was refreshing to hear such positive thinking, fresh ideas and enthusiasm for African opportunity at the Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan on 21-22 March: Turn inward for growth, use domestic savings and learn to be agile. These are all lessons the delegates exhorted in private and public. We will track their successes and their near misses, right here, in Money. ●

A GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE PUBLICATION - 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE - TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 - WWW.THEAFRICAREPORT. COM ● CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED PUBLISHER DANIELLE BEN YAHMED EXECUTIVE PUBLISHER JÉRÔME MILLAN PUBLISHER@THEAFRICAREPORT. COM MARKETING AND DEVELOPMENT ALISON KINGSLEY-HALL ● EDITOR IN CHIEF PATRICK SMITH MANAGING EDITOR NICHOLAS NORBROOK EDITORIAL@ THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ASSISTANT EDITOR CHARLIE HAMILTON ASSOCIATE EDITOR MARSHALL VAN VALEN EDITORIAL ASSISTANT OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI SUBEDITORS ALISON CULLIFORD, PERRY LEOPARD PROOFREADING KATHLEEN GRAY ● ART DIRECTOR MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER), CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) PRODUCTION PHILIPPE MARTIN, CHRISTIAN KASONGO PHOTOGRAPHY PIERANGELIQUE SCHOULER ● SALES SANDRA DROUET TEL: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – FAX: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 SALES@THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ● ADVERTISING DIFCOM INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY ADVERTISING@THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ● ADVERTISING DIRECTOR NATHALIE GUILLERY • PRINTER SIEP 77 – FRANCE S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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INTERVIEW

Akinwumi Adesina

President, African Development Bank

We’re tired of being in the dark AfDB president Adesina wants to use the bank to de-risk investments in electricity and agriculture and so help transform the continent’s economies

kinwumi Adesina has r is en from being a developmental economist specialised in agricultural finance to agriculture minister of Nigeria, and then to president of the African Development Bank (AfDB) in September 2015. His signature policy as minister was the reform of a fertiliser subsidy, and he injected fresh energy into Nigeria’s green revolution. He is a strategic ally for those who believe Africa’s competitive advantage lies in boosting its agricultural output, given his mantra of “agriculture is a business.” Insiders within the AfDB welcome the new man at the helm. According to one source, who requested anonymity: “He says he wants to be surrounded by the smartest people so that they can shoot down his bad ideas and makehis goodones great.” Adesina has also wielded the axe faster than previous AfDB presidents, and three vice-presidents stepped down at the end of January. Whetherhewillprovetheshotin the arm that the institution needs remains to be seen. What is certain is that many African countries are facing a tough year: from currency collapses to drought and rock-bottom commodity prices.

TAR: How do you think El Niño is going to affect the farmers of Africa? What can the bank do to mitigate those effects? AKINWUMIADESINA:Therehas to be rapidly disbursed funds to allow Africa to adapt very quickly. Climate change impact for us is not in the future, it’s now. I think there are two ways in which this can be done. First and foremost is for the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environmental Facility to actually put aside some money rapidly to allow countries to insure themselves against this kind of environmental shock. The problem is: who pays for insurance? The global community needs to rally around African countries and help them to pay for the insurance through the African Risk Capacity. That will then pay out massive amounts of money to deal with [the effects of El Niño]. The second [way] is [through] individual insurance for farmers, both in terms of livestock insurance and crop insurance – weather index insurance. The Ethiopian government says it is not opening up markets to foreign banks because they are not interested in financing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Are they right?

CONTINENTAL BANKER 6 February 1960 Born in Nigeria 1998 Began working at the Rockefeller Foundation 2008 Vice-president for the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa 2011 Appointed as Nigeria’s agriculture minister 1 September 2015 Took office as president of the AfDB

The point I want to make out of that [concerns] what [Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn] says about the SMEs. Today, roughly about 90% of all the businesses you find in Africa are SMEs. For African economies to be more robust, we need to get a lot more financing to them. That is why, at the AfDB, we have continued to make a lot of financing available to them. We provided $1bn of financing to SMEs for trade finance in the last two years. We’ve provided a lot of money to intermediary financial institutions in various countries to be able to on-lend at a lower rate of interest to SMEs. Themainchallengefacingmany SMEs – I would not even put finance at the top of [the list] of their challenges – is a lack of electricity, a lack of energy. Most of them are running on diesel generators, and thereforethecostofdoingbusiness for them is high. We are launching this new deal on energy for Africa to allow Africa to be able to electrify itself completely within 10 years. It makes no sense that Africa continues to be in the dark, and we’ve said we’re tired of being in the dark. That’s why as a bank we are going to invest $12bn in the next five years in the energy sector. We also hope to use different types of instruments to de-risk the energy sector, to be able to leverage anything between $45bn and $50bn into the sector. There is this ongoing conversationabouthowopenaneconomy should be at a particular point in its development... Countries and regions at different stages of development use a different mix of trade policy, financial policy and industrial policy. There’snoonecookie-cuttermodel to development. If you take a look

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at Asia, all of [the countries] did different mixes of those policies based on what they wanted to do. At the AfDB, our focus is really onanopenAfricanmarketwithout borders. It’s the best that can happen to this continent. If you take a look at the Common Market for EasternandSouthernAfrica,the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community – which plan to open up their markets to each other – it’s about 630 or so million people, right? We’re talking about a trillion-dollar gross domestic product among the 26 countries that are involved. You can imagine if you do that at a wider scale. What that means is that you will have industrial growth engines in different parts of Africa that will produce and specialise and be able to sell in different parts of Africa. Secondly, you will also see that Africa’s exposure to global volatilities on the commodity markets will fall because you are trading a lot more within yourself than you are trading on the outside. Thirdly, it will speed up the financial market integration of Africa because they have to actually sell goods and services all across the continent.

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ect budget support to provide counter-cyclical financial support to countries. The bank is also supporting countries with balance of payments deficits to be able to smooth that [out]. In addition, the bank will continue to provide technical assistance for countries in terms of better macroeconomic management but also fiscal consolidation. When you are subjected to external shocks, you require a bank like us to actually be with [you] and support [you]. But, as I said, a crisis is always a terrible opportunity to miss. We must look in there and see what needs to change. And what needs to change is more rapid diversification of African economies. ● Interview by Nicholas Norbrook in Sharm el-Sheikh

VINCENT FOURNIER/JA

With weak commodity prices and African currencies losing value, will the bank play a countercyclical role? The bank is already doing that in two ways. First, we are p r o v i d i n g d i r-

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M ONEY

WHO’S WHO A

By Mark Anderson, Charlie Hamilton, Nicholas Norbrook, Oheneba Ama Nti Osei, Crystal Orderson and Marshall Van Valen

new generation of bank managers, government officials and tech innovators are shaping Africa’s finance landscape. With rising interest rates in the United States pulling global investors back towards Wall Street and global commodity prices falling, it is ever harder to raise the finance needed to drive development. In these pages, The Africa Report profiles the rising stars and troubled technocrats working on the continent’s opportunities and challenges: from consummate dealmakers like South Africa’s Dennis Tucker to the corporate titans like Ecobank Nigeria’s Charles Kié. We look at pension regulators like Kenya’s Edward Odundo, who are calling for a revolution in the raising of domestic resources. And we turn to those re-jigging Africa’s financial technology, including Mitchell Elegbe: a Nigerian who has created a payments platform that may soon be worth $1bn. There are signs of change coming. With United Kingdom-based Barclays bank having announced its intention to sell off its stake in its Africa group, there is the chance for African banking institutions to steal a march on the competition and take the lead in building more pan-African champions. A new group of African representatives – be they Arunma Oteh at the World Bank or Leslie Maasdorp at the BRICS-backed New Development Bank – are fighting for the continent’s economic development at the world’s premier development finance institutions. With the impact of the commodities crunch in countries like Angola, Mozambique and Zambia, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund are again in high demand. In Nigeria, the newish government in Abuja and finance minister Kemi Adeosun are taking their own advice and launching a massive investment programme while refusing to devalue the naira in order to give the economy a jump start. Watch these pages to see which side of the fight comes out on top and what that means for African countries and their place in the global financial marketplace. ● S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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FINANCE MINISTRY SOUTH AFRICA

Pravin Gordhan

Protected by pedigree

JASON ALDEN/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

During Gordhan’s first spell as finance minister, from 2009-2014, The Africa Report asked him whether it was confusing for investors to have so many ministers in charge of the economy. He replied tartly: “Well, when I want to pick up the phone and call the market, can I get through to any one person?” This combative common sense is a hallmark of the chemist turned freedom fighter. He ran the tax office with great aplomb, forcing tax avoiders in the corporate world to pay up. That heritage and credibility is sword and shield in his new fight, trying to force fiscal rectitude on a government keen on appointing cronies into positions of power.

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WHO’S WHO

BRVM TOGO

Edoh Kossi Amenounve

Building a better bourse

HARITH GENERAL PARTNERS, SOUTH AFRICA

Tshepo Mahloele Hard work for hard assets

The CEO of South African private-equity fund Harith is currently raising $1.2bn for infrastructure projects. Harith and Mahloele are focusing on attracting funds from Middle Eastern institutional investors. The fund has invested in more than 70 projects across the continent. In 2009, it pumped $30m into Nigeria’s MainOne fibre-optic cable, which is a key infrastructure element for the country's telecoms backbone. Mahloele’s experience at Rand Merchant Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa and South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation provide him with the understanding of private and public sector concerns about the large infrastructure projects that the firm backs.

ADIB CAPITAL EGYPT

Zeinab Hashim Gulf state conduit

Hashim is at the heart of financing the new Egypt, and the need for cash has rarely been more acute. The post-revolutionary landscape saw an economy in free fall, but it has since stabilised. Now, the watchword is infrastructure, with a large public works programme ordered by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Cairo has turned to the Gulf states to plug budget deficits and to finance projects. Hashim runs ADIB Capital, the investment banking wing of the Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank in Egypt, and is focused on energy and transportation schemes. Previously, she was at the National Bank of Egypt.

ECOBANK NIGERIA CÔTE D'IVOIRE

Charles Kié

From one regional giant to another Kié is aiming to make Ecobank Nigeria one of the country’s top financial institutions. He took over as managing director in January after heading Ecobank’s investment and business banking departments since 2012. AR RT FO The former Citibank employee also ran AD A S Abidjan-based Groupe Banque Atlantique. He plans to use technology to tap into the massive unbanked population.

This Togolese banker has spent his career making regional integration a reality – first as secretary general of the ECOWAS financial regulator and now as the head of the Abidjan-based regional bourse. Growth in Côte d’Ivoire helped the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) finish 2015 as the continent’s top stock market performer, with its composite index rising 17.7%. Amenounve has been attracting investors from the region and further afield over the past three years. The listing of NSIA Banque and a round of Ivorian privatisations could boost the bourse and raise the value of transactions towards the goal of €600m ($684m) this year.

10000000 2012

African Guarantee Fund established amongst the Economic Development Stakeholders.

2014

Supported 1000 SMEs. 24,000 jobs created.

2017 Plan

Support 7,000 SMEs. Help create 170,000 jobs.

2019 Plan

Support 8,000 SMEs. Help create 253,000 jobs.

AfricaĘźs growth is our growth. Africa stands as the worldĘźs fastest growing economy and for us to be part of this growth, we work with financial institutions across the continent to support the remarkable efforts of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises.

WHO’S WHO

PUBLIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION SOUTH AFRICA

M ONEY

Daniel Matjila Enricher of pensions

BANCABC ZAMBIA, ZAMBIA

Clergy Simatyaba

“We’re not going to nickel-anddime it if we really want to eliminate extreme poverty” The former head of Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission Arunma Oteh took up her role as treasurer and vice-president of the World Bank in July 2015. She is taking her experience fighting against Nigerian market abuses and work at the Harvard Institute for International Development to help the World Bank fight poverty.

GTBANK NIGERIA

Segun Agbaje

Creating a pathway to profit So far, Nigeria's economic troubles have not hurt the performance of GTBank. Managing director Segun Agbaje predicts that the bank’s growing loan book and cost-cutting measures at its subsidiaries will deliver a pre-tax profit of N125bn ($627.5m) this year, which would make it one of the country’s most profitable banks. Agbaje is a career GTBank man and has been managing director since 2011. Under Nigeria’s banking regulations, he could take another five years to shape his legacy. D FOR TAR SAA

Group BancABC owes Simatyaba a thing or two. Not only has he worked for the bank in Tanzania and Zambia, but he is also credited with preserving its capital during Zimbabwe’s hyperinflationary period in the 2000s. BancABC Zambia has been pushing modern funding models for mortgages, signing a long-term funding deal in December 2015 with the National Pensions Scheme Authority. When Bob Diamond-backed Atlas Mara bought BancABC Group in 2014, a new chapter opened up for Simatyaba.

DEAN HUTTON/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

With more than R1.8trn ($120.2bn) in assets, South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation (PIC) is a major investment force at home and abroad. Chief executive Daniel Matjila already has his eye on a larger stake now that Barclays bank has committed to selling off its shares in its African holdings. While other stateowned enterprises in South Africa are plagued by troubles, the PIC – which invests government pension money – just gets stronger. Matjila has been pushing the fund to invest more in other African countries.

CASABLANCA FINANCE CITY MOROCCO

Najwa El Iraki Building the hub

Charged with heading the business development division of Casablanca Finance City (CFC) – King Mohammed VI’s flagship project to transform Morocco’s commercial capital into one of the continent’s financial centres – the European-educated chartered accountant is helping to draw international investors. She joined CFC in 2010 as a principal adviser, having previously worked for KPMG, Lehman Brothers and Mazars Group. With her help, the CFC is using financial and tax incentives to attract international investors. S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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WHO’S WHO

M ONEY

On the up

Financiers with a nose for opportunity

Leslie Maasdorp ALLAN GRAY SOUTH AFRICA

Andrew Lapping

Contrary countings 38-year-old Lapping became the chief investment officer of the Allan Gray investment management group last year. The largest such firm in South Africa, it controls more than $35bn in assets. The commodities slump has turned many investors negative on Africa, but Lapping says now is the time to invest while prices of stocks outside of South Africa are lower. The University of Cape Towneducated investment adviser employs a contrarian perspective at Allan Gray, but says he will not rush blindly to invest in mining stocks, for example.

BRICS banker

The South African banker is now vice-president of the New Development Bank.

Mohamed Benchaâboun

Expansionary visions

The president of Morocco’s Banque Centrale Populaire has his eye on Central Africa.

Joshua Oigara

Young, gifted and Kenyan The chief executive of KCB is looking to acquire smaller rivals.

Kayode Akinola Long-term view

The Nigerian leads the Africa team of US private-equity firm KKR.

Patrick Chinamasa Let’s make a deal

Zimbabwe’s finance minister is leading a rapprochement with the IMF and other lenders.

Abdourahmane Cissé A minister who counts

Côte d’Ivoire’s 34-year-old budget minister is overseeing a huge infrastructure spend.

OVAMBA SOLUTIONS CAMEROON

Funeka Montjane

Viola Llewellyn

Standard, but not ordinary

Financial innovator

Cameroonian consultant Llewellyn launched Ovamba Solutions in 2013 as a means to get finance to under-served small and medium-sized enterprises in Francophone countries. Ovamba offers a platform to match lenders and clients, and provides credit rankings for financiers looking to offer loans with a duration of three to six months. It can issue loans of up to 350m CFA francs ($608,000) within seven days of receiving a loan request. Cameroon was the company’s first target, and Ovamba is developing a launch programme for the other countries of Central Africa. US-based chief operating officer Llewellyn is using her skills as a consultant and experience at KPMG and Praxis Management to get money into the hands of growing small companies that face difficulties getting loans from local banks. Ovamba is looking for investors to scale up its operations, and London-based investor GLI Finance bought a 20% stake in the firm for $1.3m in 2014. S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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Standard Bank’s personal and business banking division chief is rapidly climbing the ranks.

Sanjiv Bhasin Place in the sun

The chief executive of Mauritiusbased AfrAsia Bank is bringing growth to the bank’s bottom line.

Yemi Lalude

Nigerian diaspora ahoy Managing partner Lalude has helped one of the latest US funds TPG – to invest in Africa.

Mark Barnes Delivery service

The former banker is overhauling the Post Office in South Africa.

M ONEY

WHO’S WHO

CENTRAL BANK KENYA

Patrick Njoroge President Uhuru Kenyatta appointed Njoroge as governor of the Kenyan central bank in October. Since then, Njorege has not been shy in his efforts to clean up the banking sector. He temporarily banned new banking licences and shut down two lenders for mismanagement. Much has been written in the Kenyan media about the 54 year old, a bachelor who is committed to the Roman Catholic organisation Opus Dei. He lives in a modest communal house in Nairobi’s Loresho Estate and has said that he “doesn’t have a single asset here in Kenya”.

AL AMANA MICROFINANCE MOROCCO

Ahmed Ghazali Man of many hats

Ahmed Ghazali is a lawyer, president of the Moroccan audiovisual regulator, and runs one of the continent’s most dynamic microfinance institutions. Starting out as an association to help small businesses in 1997, Al Amana has become the country’s largest smallscale lender, accounting for nearly 40% of Morocco’s microfinance customers and loans. Al Amana has just scored a €6m IFC loan to expand its activities.

SAA

TAR

INTERSWITCH NIGERIA

Mitchell Elegbe Cashing in on cashless

Big things are in the air at InterSwitch, a Nigerian payment processing platform created in 2002 by Mitchell Elegbe. InterSwitch already operates in five countries and owns debit card brand Verve. In mid2015, Elegbe, who had previously worked at Nigerian IT firm Telnet, announced his intention for an IPO in London and Lagos to allow the company to launch in other African countries. However, Bloomberg reported in February that South African private-equity firm Helios Investment Partners is also preparing to sell its 52% stake in InterSwitch – which it bought for $92m in 2010 – in a deal that would value the company at around $1bn. The deals keep on coming for InterSwitch, and it purchased Nigerian mobile-payments company VANSO in late March. With the central bank pushing for more cashless transactions, InterSwitch is well placed to pick up business.

Pious protector of assets

HALDEN KROG/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

UBA GHANA, GHANA

Abiola Bawuah A profitable presence

With Bawuah’s appointment as managing director of United Bank for Africa (UBA) Ghana in January 2014, she joined three other women who are changing the country’s financial landscape at the helm of banking institutions. At the end of her first year in office, she recorded a stellar 30% increase in profit before tax over the previous year’s ¢125m ($32m), an impressive feat given the cedi’s depreciation. She is also the first Ghanaian and first female to head UBA Ghana, joining in 2013 as deputy managing director. The seasoned banker – who boasts diplomas from Harvard, Columbia, INSEAD and Villa Pierrefeu – previously held management positions at Zenith Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and CAL Bank.

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EXCLUSIVE RANKING

How to thrive in 2016 • Market share up for grabs in great shake-out • Oil companies double down on costs • Cash injection into telecoms infrastructure

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE INTERNATIONAL EDITION

• Ghana/Côte d’Ivoire Growth engines • Lagos Maximum City • African Union Candidate games

Africans investing in Africa

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The CEOs

who bring it home Think global, invest local: backing continental projects

Growth

After the crash,

the fightback African leaders try economic nationalism to beat the commodity trap

From left to right: Gavin Dalgleish, MD of SA agribusiness ILLOVO Ismaïl Douiri, Co-CEO ATTIJARIWAFA Bank Ade Ayeyemi, Group CEO ECOBANK Tabitha Karanja, Kenyan CEO of Keroche Breweries

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INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 40 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 35 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS• Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

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M ONEY

WHO’S WHO

Hard times

Bankers and ministers facing a tide of problems

Maria Ramos Pulling out

With Barclays selling off its stake in its Africa group Ramos may be out of work.

Valentina da Luz Guebuza No love lost

Dad, the former Mozambique president, has relinquished power; the family businesses could suffer.

Kornelio Koryom Mayik Weathering a storm

There is little that South Sudan’s finance minister can do to cushion the economy’s collapse.

Philip Mpango

Fighting bossy barons Tanzania’s finance minister faces a backlash from the government’s anti-corruption campaign.

ABRA AJ PAKISTAN

Arif Naqvi Patient capitalist

One of the most aggressive privateequity funds investing in Africa, Dubai-based Abraaj raised $1.4bn last year for its African endeavours. Pakistani-born Arif Naqvi is dismissive of the view that Africa is too risky for investment, preferring to rely on local knowledge to develop opportunities. Recent deals include funding a mortgage company in Ghana, exiting panAfrican insurer UAP and investments in Kenyan companies Brookside Dairy and Athi River Cement. Abraaj’s investments in Egypt cemented Naqvi’s reputation: he held on to Integrated Diagnostics Holdings throughout troubled times until the company listed in London in May 2015.

SIDDHARTH SIVA/ARABIANEYE/CORBIS

Kemi Adeosun Balancing act

Nigeria’s finance minister must fill a budget deficit and fend off calls for a naira depreciation.

Margaret Mwanakatwe In search of friends

Zambia’s trade minister is looking for new investment to battle low copper prices.

Nazaire Tindjou Falling fast

Tindjou’s CCEI Bank GE (Equatorial Guinea) is haemorrhaging money.

Tabu Abdallah Manirakiza Till’s empty

Falling tax revenue and the suspension of aid complicate things for Burundi’s finance minister.

Mohamed Adan Ibrahim Keeping the country afloat

The Soma oil scandal and the lack of aid are worrying Somalia’s finance minister.

Ridha Zerzeri Tough terrain

The CEO of Arab Tunisian Bank has a difficult task ahead.

“A Green Climate Fund that devotes just a little percentage to Africa would be a failure” Former African Development Bank director for energy and the environment Hela Cheikhrouhou became the executive director of the United Nations-backed Green Climate Fund in 2013. The Tunisian banker will step down from her post this year after raising $10bn and paving the way for the fund’s first green energy projects in Africa. S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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WHO’S WHO

M ONEY

QINISELE RESOURCES, SOUTH AFRICA

Dennis Tucker Bekalu Zeleke

GBEMIGA OLAMIKAN FOR TAR

Cleaning up after the crash

COMMERCIAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA ETHIOPIA

Dennis Tucker, who founded South African mining advisory company Qinisele Resources in 2007, has been orchestrating deals in the wake of the commodities crash. In 2015 he brokered Sibanye Gold’s purchase of Amplats's Rustenburg operations for $102m plus 35% of distributable free cash flow over six years, and of Aquarius Platinum for $294m. The mines are adjacent and will lead to efficiencies when consolidated.

Addis’s alpha banker

Bekalu Zeleke, who has been president of the stateowned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) since 2009, is overseeing its merger with the state-run Construction and Business Bank. The move was completed in April, and the CBE now has 1,170 branches. The bank, which has assets of about $15bn, says it will expand into the UAE and the US. If Ethiopia eventually opens up to foreign banks, Belaku will be kept on his toes at home.

NATIONAL PENSION COMMISSION NIGERIA

Chinelo Anohu-Amazu Fraud-buster for seniors

How to get pension money into infrastructure is keeping Nigeria’s regulator up at nights – a mixture of strict investment guidelines and insurance might be the solution. As the pension commission’s director general since 2012, Anohu-Amazu has been fighting fraud and waste. The country now uses biometrics to stop ‘ghost workers’ from collecting pensions. A lawyer by training, she has been on the pension commission since it was founded in 2004. She still has her work cut out to get a larger share of the $26bn in Nigerian pension money invested in safe but productive sectors of the economy to benefit Nigerians young and old.

EQUITY BANK RWANDA RWANDA

Hannington Namara

PRESIDENCE DE LA REPUBLIQUE FRANÇAISE

Business booster

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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Building up business seems to be the watchword for Namara. As head of Rwanda’s Private Sector Federation he created a public-private dialogue that helps mediate conflicts between the two sides. As head of Trade Mark East Africa, he helped connect Rwandan markets to the wider East African Community. Now in charge of Equity Bank Rwanda, a subsidiary of the Kenyan bank, he assumes command of one of Rwanda’s fastest-growing banks, which recorded a 66% rise in pre-tax profits last year. Innovation and customer service will be his calling card, Namara said on taking on the role. SA A

TA R

TOM STOCKILL

GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS NIGERIA

Dollars in the diaspora

One of the top financiers in the diaspora, Ogunlesi is chairman of Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), – a private-equity fund with more than $15bn in assets – and a lead director of Goldman Sachs. A former law clerk to US Supreme Court justice Thurgood Marshall, he uses his honed analytical skills when scouting for investments, mainly in the US, Europe and Australia.

RAND MERCHANT BANK BOTSWANA

Tshepidi Moremong Investing in Africa

SAAD FO

R TAR

After stints at Goldman Sachs, Aureos Capital, RenCap and Bob Geldof’s 8 Miles Fund, this Botswana-born Columbia Business School graduate was snapped up by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) to lead its push outside South Africa in 2012. Recently RMB raised financing for a $900m power plant in Ghana and a $800m capex facility for phone towers in Nigeria.

QALA A HOLDINGS EGYPT

Hisham El-Khazindar

Patience wins the prize The only Egyptian in the World Economic Forum’s 2013 class of Young Leaders, El-Khazinder is best known for co-founding Citadel Capital in 2004, a privateequity fund that became Qalaa Holdings. He helped engineer its shift away from private equity towards more long-term bets. Qalaa’s holdings include a stake in Rift Valley Railways, connecting Uganda to the Kenyan coast at Mombasa. It also has invested in Egypt’s largest oil refinery, which is due to come on stream in early 2017. El-Khazindar made his start as an intern at EFG-Hermes.

Adebayo Ogunlesi

AfDB, ZIMBABWE

Sipho Moyo

Making money grow Moyo has vaulted up the leadership of lending institutions and is now chief of staff to AfDB president Akinwumi Adesina. She worked on a US government commission on affordable housing, and led a campaign in 2014 to push African leaders to take agriculture seriously – something that must have endeared her to the new AfDB boss.

WHO’S WHO

M ONEY

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION CAMEROON

Vera Songwe Finance to develop

This United States and Belgium-trained Cameroonian economist is a rising star in the World Bank universe. To reach the next level, she will be criss-crossing 23 African countries. She was named the International Finance Corporation’s director for West and Central Africa in 2015. Prior to that, she was a lead economist, served as the World Bank’s country director for a group of West African countries including Senegal and Mauritania, and worked as an adviser to World Bank managing director Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. With a doctorate in mathematical economics, she is a fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Africa Growth Initiative. In her new post at the IFC, she will focus on boosting the private sector with targeted investments and she is set to put her experience in agriculture projects to good use.

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Edward Odundo

“One of the things we are looking at is for government to privatise some of its enterprises so that government can easily free up cash”

Investing for the future The long-serving CEO of Kenya’s Retirement Benefits Authority (RBA) has been leading a charge for Africans to save more so that more can be invested locally and reliance on foreign capital reduced. Odundo has led the RBA since 2001 and is also director of the Insurance Regulatory Authority, a post he has held since 2005. Pension contributions only represent about 20% of Kenya’s GDP, whereas they can be more than 100% in countries in the West.

NATIONAL BANK OF EGYPT EGYPT

Hisham Okasha

Growing power

Nigerian Stock Exchange chief executive Oscar Onyema is using the skills learned at the American Stock Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange to strengthen his market’s profile and performance. He took up the post in 2011 and had his five-year contract renewed in February. His plans to turn the bourse into a trillion-dollar market have fallen flat due to the drop in oil prices, but Onyema is working on listing depository receipts so that Nigerians can buy international stocks in local currency, and has launched the Alternative Securities Market Board for small companies.

BRUNO LEVY THE AFRICA CEO FORUM

SYLVAIN CHERKAOUI FOR JA

RETIREMENT BENEFITS AUTHORITY KENYA

Under the watch of Hisham Okasha, state-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) continues to grow and grow. His goal is to increase all of the bank's major indicators by 10% per year for the next few years through a programme that includes building more data centres and expanding its network of cashpoints. To grow its loan book, the NBE has increased its lending to small businesses more than sixfold from 2008 to reach E£18.5bn ($2bn) in 2015. With experience at the central bank, Okasha says he remains committed to the domestic market. Reaching out to the unbanked population could take the NBE to the next level.

M ONEY

RANKINGS

Top 100 Africa’s biggest banks and bosses Rank 2015

Rank 2014

CEO or Managing Director

Company

Country

Total assets ($ thousands)

Net profits ($ thousands)

7 249 983

Sim Tshabalala

Standard Bank Group

South Africa

163 815 926

Sim Tshabalala & Ben Kruger

Standard Bank of South Africa

South Africa

97 380 704

4 925 812

Maria Ramos

Barclays Africa Group

South Africa

85 350 831

3 064 890

Sizwe Nxasana

FirstRand Banking Group

South Africa

81 401 108

2 572 197

Mike Brown

Nedbank Group

South Africa

69 673 756

3 337 451

Hisham Okasha

National Bank of Egypt

Egypt

65 649 096

1 171 401

Mohamed El Kettani

Attijariwafa Bank

Morocco

44 371 575

2 147 642

Stephen Koseff

Investec Limited

South Africa

40 775 065

471 773

Mohamed El Etreby

Banque Misr

Egypt

38 262 785

1 242 917

Mohamed Benchaaboun

Banque Centrale Populaire

Morocco

34 189 345

1 628 364

James Formby

Rand Merchant Bank

South Africa

33 593 007

Achour Abboud

Banque Nationale d’Algérie

Algeria

29 691 617

1 009 578

29 366 000

701 000

27 273 740

1 269 499 2 279 881

Mohamed Loukal

Banque Extérieure d’Algérie

Algeria

Othman Benjelloun

Banque Marocaine du Commerce Extérieur

Morocco

Ade Ayeyemi

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated

Togo

24 243 562

Adesola Kazeem Adeduntan

First Bank of Nigeria

Nigeria

23 580 676

1 324 127

Jacques Celliers

First National Bank

South Africa

23 387 295

2 609 044

Peter Amangbo

Zenith Bank

Nigeria

20 391 084

1 121 311

Hisham Abdul Hafez

Commercial International Bank

Egypt

20 056 206

872 327

Peter Amangbo

Zenith Bank Nigeria

Nigeria

18 591 337

Omar Boudieb

Crédit Populaire d’Algérie

Algeria

17 131 560

499 914

Phillips Oduoza

United Bank for Africa Group

Nigeria

15 000 771

1 045 031

Mohamed Osman El-Dib

Qatar National Bank Alahli

Egypt

14 688 758

515 561

Segun Agbaje

Guaranty Trust Bank

Nigeria

12 792 410

773 189

Phillips Oduoza

United Bank for Africa Nigeria

Nigeria

12 699 999

818 431

Ato Bekalu Zeleke

Commercial Bank of Ethiopia

Ethiopia

11 874 156

586 893 543 093

Herbert Wigwe

Access Bank Group

Nigeria

11 426 678

Sanjay Bhasin*

Banco Económico (Ex-BESA)

Angola

11 328 924

308 012

Hassan E. Abdalla

Arab African International Bank

Egypt

11 021 198

253 633

Mário Alberto Barber

Banco Angolano de Investimentos

Angola

10 691 408

359 406

Uzoma Dozie

Diamond Bank

Nigeria

10 442 560

594 999

Emídio Pinheiro

Banco de Fomento de Angola

Angola

10 419 378

Paixão António Júnior*

Banco de Poupança e Crédito

Angola

10 099 214

453 780

Charles Kié

Ecobank Nigeria

Nigeria

9 547 752

965 486

Tariq Sijilmassi

Crédit Agricole du Maroc

Morocco

9 328 136

336 902

9 318 896

455 814

9 312 193

488 648

Khalid Chami

Société Générale Maroc

Morocco

Mounir El Zahid*

Banque du Caire

Egypt

Fernando Teles

Banco BIC

Angola

8 116 808

310 547

Timothy Oguntayo

Skye Bank

Nigeria

7 716 638

343 583

Brahim Benjelloun-Touimi

Groupe BOA

Senegal

7 369 632

472 373

Laurent Dupuch

Banque Marocaine p/l Comm. et l’Industrie

Morocco

7 318 051

361 424

Abdel Hamid Abu Mousa

Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt

Egypt

6 987 889

240 812

Antony Withers

The Mauritius Commercial Bank

Mauritius

6 587 779

317 742

Nnamdi Okonkwo

Fidelity Bank

Nigeria

6 445 546

265 125 394 400

Ladi Balogun

First City Monument Bank

Nigeria

6 349 651

Dante Campioni

Bank of Alexandria

Egypt

6 197 894

317 430

Henri-Claude Oyima

BGFIBank Holding Corp.

Gabon

5 691 799

344 722

Emeka Emuwa

Union Bank of Nigeria

Nigeria

5 479 723

281 681

Benedict Oramah

African Export-Import Bank

Egypt

5 452 886

204 000

Baldoméro Valverde

Crédit du Maroc

5 417 418

230 740

Morocco

2014 RESULTS IN THOUSANDS OF US DOLLARS; *IN ITALICS 2013 RESULTS

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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RANKINGS

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Each year, The Africa Report publishes an exclusive ranking and analysis of Africa’s top 200 banks – watch out for our next edition due out in September 2016. Rank 2015

Rank 2014

Joshua Oigara

Kenya Commercial Bank Group

Kenya

5 315 267

628 176

Yinka Sanni

Stanbic IBTC Bank

Nigeria

5 128 863

253 353 203 947

CEO or Managing Director

Company

Country

Total assets ($ thousands)

Net profits ($ thousands)

Jaafar Khattech*

Banque Nationale Agricole

Tunisia

4 804 733

Ahmed Rahhou

Crédit Immobilier et Hôtelier

Morocco

4 763 383

187 821

Redouane Najm-Eddine

Al Barid Bank

Morocco

4 745 266

169 986 260 878

Mohamed Agrebi

Banque Internationale Arabe de Tunisie

Tunisia

4 685 165

M. Ibrahim & H. Meguid

Société Arabe Internationale de Banque

Egypt

4 655 475

Adeyemi Adeola

Sterling Bank

Nigeria

4 477 249

373 388

Alastair J. Bryce

HSBC Mauritius

Mauritius

4 424 007

60 839

François-Edouard Drion

Crédit Agricole Egypt

Egypt

4 348 767

173 782

Ahmed El Karm

Amen Bank

Tunisia

4 279 258

135 249

Hatem Sadek

Bank Audi Egypt

Egypt

4 263 543

143 806 1 261 305

Brian Riley

African Bank Limited

South Africa

4 261 627

Abdelaziz Khelef

BADEA

Sudan

4 154 512

Joshua Oigara

Kenya Commercial Bank

Kenya

4 096 068

349 184 205 043

Souleymane Diarrassouba

Atlantic Business International

Côte d’Ivoire

4 075 902

Abdelwaheb Nachi

Société Tunisienne de Banque

Tunisia

3 929 163

140 396

Yasser Ismail Hassan

NBK – Egypt (Ex-Alwatany Bank of Egypt)

Egypt

3 861 797

105 282

James Ndung’u Mwangi

Equity Bank Group

Kenya

3 735 157

516 512

Carlos José da Silva*

Banco Privado Atlântico

Angola

3 648 100

157 881

Sridhar Nagarajan

Standard Chartered Bank Mauritius

Mauritius

3 547 689

66 482

Admassu Tadesse

PTA Bank

Burundi

3 538 555

121 722

Jairaj Sonoo

SBM Bank Mauritius (Ex-State Bank of M)

Mauritius

3 491 330

178 055

Tshokolo Petrus Nchocho

Land Bank

South Africa

3 490 825

92 439

Nevine El-Messeery

Ahli United Bank Egypt

Egypt

3 484 249

Bola Adesola

Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria

Nigeria

3 394 381

277 797

Ahmed Rjiba

Banque de l’Habitat de Tunisie

Tunisia

3 345 901

131 618

Albert Nigri

Afriland First Group

Cameroon

3 287 445

232 098 94 581

Ravin Dajee

Barclays Bank of Mauritius

Mauritius

3 234 447

Lakshman Bheenick

Standard Bank Mauritius

Mauritius

3 230 923

32 216

Mohamed Ozalp*

Blom Bank Egypt

Egypt

3 180 902

54 150

Atef Mohamed Ebeid

Arab International Bank

Egypt

3 143 263

63 942

José Reino da Costa

Millennium bim

Mozambique

3 129 650

288 012

Mohamed Isa Al Mutaweh

AlBaraka Bank Egypt

Egypt

3 107 161

51 727

Gideon M. Muriuki

Co-operative Bank of Kenya

Kenya

3 093 693

347 810

Christian Adovelande

BOAD

Togo

3 069 150

55 073

Paulo Sousa

Banco Comercial e de Investimentos

Mozambique

2 970 176

203 775

Fathy El-Sebai Mansour

Housing & Development Bank

Egypt

2 963 525

246 844

Pascal Fevre

BNP Paribas El Djazair

Algeria

2 881 053

141 304

Yemane Tesfay

Commercial Bank of Eritrea

Eritrea

2 850 168

13 770 140 610

109

102

Hicham Seffa

Attijari Bank Tunisie

Tunisia

2 838 966

Tarek Fathi Kandil

Suez Canal Bank

Egypt

2 830 469

74 206

101

Manuel Neto da Costa

Banco de Desenvolvimento de Angola

Angola

2 773 575

34 465

Edgard Théophile Anon*

BGFI Bank Gabon

Gabon

2 758 251

154 422

Eric Wormser

Société Générale Algérie

Algeria

2 757 023

150 796

Nevine Loutfy

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank – Egypt

Egypt

2 736 973

86 491

James Ndung’u Mwangi*

Equity Bank Kenya

Kenya

2 713 030

269 829

David A. Polkinghorne*

Grindrod Bank

South Africa

2 705 786

Mohamed Férid Ben Tanfous

Arab Tunisian Bank

Tunisia

2 695 665

92 957

100

Mohamed Ismail El Sherif

Export Development Bank of Egypt

Egypt

2 685 915

76 526

2014 RESULTS IN THOUSANDS OF US DOLLARS; *IN ITALICS 2013 RESULTS

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VENTURE CAPITAL

Waiting for lift-off E A lack of financing is holding back Kenya’s potential as a tech hub. But with more venture capital and private-equity firms moving in, that could soon change

By Abigail Higgins in Nairobi

very day, a fleet of motorcycle couriers whisks tubs of pad thai, business contracts and laptop chargers forgotten in the office through Nairobi’s notoriously congested streets. Smartphone users across the city beckon delivery men using a new-age solution to an old-school problem: these drivers are part of Sendy, a mobile delivery app. It was founded by Meshack Alloys, who is one of Kenya’s promising young entrepreneurs attracting local and international investors eager to get a slice of Nairobi’s start-up cake. Kenya’s tech industry has gone from strength to strength with the enormous success of mobile-money platform

M-Pesa, which is now the world’s largest mobile payment system, and Ushahidi, an open-source crowdsourcing system developed during Kenya’s 2007-2008 post-election crisis. The hype machine even dubbed Nairobi the ‘Silicon Savannah’ because of its potential for tech innovation. That might be overstating it, but the sector is set to contribute up to 8% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) next year, according to the government. Much of this success can be put down to Kenya’s highly entrepreneurial culture: 78% of young entrepreneurs say their families are supportive of the idea of starting their own business. “It’s just a hustler culture. People want

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spectrum there are few funding options. This could change, however, as more venture capital funds open up shop in Nairobi. Mbwana Alliy, the founder and managing partner of the Savannah Fund, a venture capital outfit, says his company’s goal is “for local entrepreneurs to know what venture capital is and to prefer that model of investment”. Alliy started out with a strong focus on Kenya, but he quickly set his sights on the rest of the continent. Today, Savannah has funded 22 companies in six African countries. With a strategy of investing in early-stage, high-growth technology start-ups and specialising in $25,000 to $500,000 investments, it has pumped money into start-ups such as Sendy and Eneza Education. Since 2012, investors have committed about $93m of venture capital to Kenyan companies, according to estimates from the East Africa Venture Capital Association (EAVCA).

MANY START-UPS FIND THEMSELVES PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE – THEY ARE TOO BIG FOR MICROFINANCE, TOO SMALL FOR BANKS

to make money; they want to have a business,” says Toni Maraviglia, the co-founder and chief executive officer of Eneza Education, a mobile-based education platform.

panies that employ 5 to 250 people and need between $20,000 and $2m to grow their operations – provide close to 80% of jobs in Kenya, but they only contribute 20% to the country’s GDP, suggesting the industry is not reaching its full potential. The country’s tech start-ups are caught in an unwelcoming financial landscape. The ‘missing middle’ of the financial spectrum means that many of Kenya’s SMEs are unable to find the funding they need to grow. Microfinance options are plentiful – there are 32 institutions with $586m in assets lending to small businesses, according to Intellecap. And medium to large companies have access to funding from 43 banks with an asset size of $28bn. But in the middle of the

CASH FOR IDEAS

Kenyan tech entrepreneurs are struggling, however, to find the cash to grow their businesses. In a 2015 poll by research outfit Intellecap, 68% of Kenyan business leaders said access to finance is a challenge. With few funding options, 40% of the same entrepreneurs said they were forced to self-finance their business, and 23% said they turned to friends and family for help. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – defined as comS U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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WALDO SWIEGERS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

FIRST STOP NAIROBI

Last year, Hong Kong-based venture capital firm Nest opened an office in Nairobi. Founded six years ago, Nest is launching operations in Nairobi with an eye towards expanding across the continent and connecting African entrepreneurs to Asian capital. It is not just venture capital getting in on the action. Of the 100 private-equity firms active in sub-Saharan Africa, 35 have an office in Nairobi, the EAVCA says. In the past two years, they estimate that 10 new firms have set up shop in Nairobi. Some of Kenya’s start-up funders are local firms. James Mworia, chief executive of Centum Investment (see page 26), says his company has invested in Bunifu, asoftwarestart-up,aswellasElimuTV,an education-focused start-up. “We are supporting start-ups that do not have access to capital at all, and the majority of them are technology start-ups. There are a lot of brilliant ideas coming up, particularly around financial technology,” he says. Impact investment, a form of finance meant to generate both a profit and a social good, has been touted as another solution to the funding problems of Kenya’s start-ups. Nonnie Wanjihia, one of the founders of the EAVCA, explains: “It contributes positively because there is obviously the problem of the missing middle investment. […] So an increase of impact investors who do have a capacity to invest smaller amounts is definitely a good thing and will improve the pipeline towards larger growth-capital investors.”

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V E N T U R E C A P I TA L

One of these impact investment companies is Novastar Ventures, launched in 2014 to assist early-stage and highgrowth businesses in East Africa. So far, it has raised $75m and invested in eight companies across Kenya and Uganda. For many, impact investment is an ideal melding of Nairobi’s aid industry and its growing start-up scene. But other entrepreneurs have quickly grown frustrated with the emphasis on social good, sometimes over profit and scalability. Alliy says: “I believe strongly in local private-equity ecosystems being built and not coming in with ‘Aid 2.0’. I just want to find entrepreneurs who want to make a lot of money, and impact will come from that, like job creation.”

FOREIGNERS GET THE FUNDS

Industry insiders are also concerned that the solutions for bridging tech funding gaps have propped up foreign investors rather than building a new generation of Kenya’s business elite. “Foreigners dominate,” says Alliy of Nairobi’s venture capital scene. “Maybe 90% of the venture capital is foreigners investing in foreigners. That’s just the reality.” Many of the Kenyan start-ups that have been doing well were founded by Westerners. British entrepreneur Nick Hughes founded M-Kopa, which provides solar power equipment to poor Kenyans. It received more than $31m in seed funding last year, making up the bulk of investment in Kenyan start-ups. Americans Dylan Higgins and Benjamin Lyon set up Kopo Kopo, a payments platform that received $2.1m last year. BitPesa, which uses the digital currency Bitcoin to conduct remittance transfers, received $1.1m infundingandisalsoAmerican-founded. Rodgers Muhadi, the co-founder of Paykind, a mobile-phone platform used to distribute vouchers from remittances or aid earmarked for things such as education, healthcare and food, shares the sentiment: “There are Kenyans who are born and bred here and they’ve been able to raise funding, but those success stories are few.” Muhadi, who was forced to travel to the US to raise funding for his business, says: “It’s a frustrating reality for us. We need Kenyans to be the ones leading [the industry]. As Africa grows, as Kenya grows, we need to have more good stories to tell and create the kind of success to inspire other people to invest in this market.” ● Additional reporting by Mark Anderson

SENDY DRIVERS DELIVER – AND SO DID THE START-UP’S INVESTORS

CASE STUDY

The strings attached Kenya’s young tech start-ups have to negotiate hard-to-find funding that does take large bites out of their equity

or a Kenyan start-up like courier app Sendy, successful fundraising meant rejecting money as often as accepting it. Malaika Judd, one of its co-founders, explains: “When I joined Sendy, the first thing I did was say ‘Don’t take Savannah Fund’s money.’” This was striking, as Judd had just quit Savannah Fund, a seed capital fund, to work at Sendy. The mobile delivery app went on to win East Africa’s Pivot East startup competition in 2014, but Meshack Alloys, a Sendy co-founder and its chief executive, rejected the prize money because it required the firm to part with a large amount of Sendy’s equity. Sendy has avoided impactinvestment money, though Judd says they would consider it if it did not pose a risk to scale and profitability. In conversations with impact investors, Judd saw Sendy being pushed in a direction that prioritised hiring drivers who were supporting families or sending drivers to rural villages. “It can be distracting,” says Judd. Receiving grant funding can often involve report writing and providing deliverables that can stray far from a company’s stated goals. Instead of jumping at these offers, Sendy began by bootstrapping, relying on savings and money from family and friends. Alloys worked hard to attract angel investors who gave them the freedom to build the company the way they wanted. In the end, Sendy accepted Savannah Fund’s money but

only after a long negotiation. Because Kenya is still a nascent market, young companies are often given relatively small amounts of money. For example, Savannah Fund awards funding in the range of $25,000 to $30,000 but only in exchange for a 12% equity stake.

A SLOW BUILD

Sendy raised around $600,000, half of that money from local angel investors. Judd says this will come as a surprise to many Kenyan entrepreneurs, most of whom believe angel investment is an unlikely pathway to success. “But it took us nine months, so we had to scramble for nine months figuring out how to live,” she says. The rest of the fundingcamefromtheSavannahFund, the Kernel Fund and Safaricom’s Spark Fund. Hello Media, a Spanish marketing firm, also invested. But for Judd and Alloys, these sacrifices were well worth the control they eventually retained over Sendy. “The ability to have some savings to burn through allowed us to go from what would have been a typical Kenya earlystage start-up, to where we are now with people saying you’re an international-looking start-up.” In April, Sendy launched operations in the city of Kisumu. This will be the first step to seeing whether they will be able to cash in on ambitions to expand outside of Nairobi and, eventually, beyond Kenya. ● Abigail Higgins in Nairobi

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V E N T U R E C A P I TA L

INTERVIEW

James Mworia Chief executive, Centum Investment

There are still huge unmet needs In Kenya, education, healthcare and agribusiness are just three of the rapidly expanding sectors where opportunity abounds, says Mworia, who runs one of the country’s leading investment firms

Where do you see the best investment opportunities? We are finding very interesting opportunities in basic sectors like education. We are working on rollingoutschools,andthere’s huge appetite for that. It’s still a huge unmet need, especially among the middle class. Healthcare is another area, agribusiness as well. Wehavesecuredlarge orders from Germany for exports of

TAR: Who will be the biggest winners and losers in Kenya’s business world this year? JAMES MWORIA: Businesses that are focused on filling domestic consumer demand will continue to do well. Our economy is very consumer oriented. Manufacturing companies like Coca-Cola, companies that are assembling motor vehicles – particularly commercial motor vehicles – we’ve seen significant growth there. Companies that are doing microfinance credit will do well […]. We have invested incompanieslikePlatinum Credit, and we’ve seen growth in the demand for credit. The losers might be resource-oriented companies that are doing exploration for export of resources that are

tied to global commodity prices. I think they will get caught up with what’s happening globally in the commodities cycle.

MUL

enya is home to a surging consumer base that is hungry for more products. The World Bank expects the country’s economy to grow by 5.9% this year and 6% next year, faster than it had initially expected. The gains areattributedtoadropinspending on oil due to lower prices, higher agricultural output and more investment in infrastructure. James Mworia,chiefexecutiveofCentum Investment, is seeking to cash in on this growth. His firm signed a $63m deal with Old Mutual to build the Two Rivers Development, a commercial real estate project, in January of this year.

LEON

agricultural products, herbs, fruits and vegetables. In retail, we are seeing more demand for formal retail spaces. In power development, there is still huge unmet demand. For manufacturing, there is demand. The domestic economy continues to chug along, and there are still huge unmet needs. Whoever fulfils them, and those who provide the platform for investors to come in, will do well. Do you see a closer political or monetary union any time soon in East Africa? In the near future, no. Maybe in the medium to longer term, but I don’t see it as imminent. Each of the countries in the East African Community has its own internal politics, and the domestic politics are more important to each of the countries than the regional politics. Uganda has its own issues, Tanzania has its own issues and Kenya has its own issues. From a monetary point of view, I think they are totally different. Therefore, for me as a businessman, what I think is more helpful is the strengthening of the economic and trade union even more than the political federation. Is it fair to say that Kenya’s banks and businesses would reap more benefits from a single currency than others in the region? I recently saw some numbers that suggested that the growth of exports from Tanzania to Kenya was larger than the growth of exports from Kenya to Tanzania. I don’t think it’s necessarily the case when you look at what the experience has been over the past three to four years. How do you think low oil prices will affect the development of Kenya’s nascent energy sector? Our largest imports are oil and oil-related products, so the low price should ease the currentaccount deficit, and, by extension, perhaps put less pressure on the shilling. In the sector, I see Tullow cutting back. There has definitely been a reduction in the intensity of exploration activities. ● Interview by Mark Anderson

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