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From backroom to front of house, the dealmakers and kingpins controlling Africaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s biggest economy INTERNATIONAL EDITION

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Who runs Nigeria?

Inside the Zuma system

MUHAMMADU BUHARI LAMIDO SANUSI KEMI ADEOSUN

TB JOSHUA TUKUR YUSUF BURATAI

ADE AYEYEMI

President Kenyatta

CHIMAMANDA NGOZI ADICHIE NASIR AHMAD EL-RUFAI

IBRAHIM MAGU

THE POWER LIST

“We were right”

ALIKO DANGOTE

AKINWUNMI AMBODE

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THE AFRICA REPORT # 80 - MAY 2016

Kenyatta confident of poll victory after ICC case collapses

From backroom to front of house, the dealmakers and kingpins controlling Africa’s biggest economy GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE SOUTHERN AFRICA EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanz • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € •Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira • Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 40 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

EAST AFRICA EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € • Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira • Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 40 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

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06 EDITORIAL The three wise monkeys of Panama 08 LETTERS

MUHAMMADU BUHARI LAMIDO SANUSI KEMI ADEOSUN

T.B. JOSHUA TUKUR YUSUF BURATAI

ADE AYEYEMI

10 THE QUESTION

CHIMAMANDA NGOZI ADICHIE NASIR AHMAD EL-RUFAI

BRIEFING

IBRAHIM MAGU

THE POWER LIST

12 SIGNPOSTS

ALIKO DANGOTE

14 INTERNATIONAL

AKINWUNMI AMBODE

16 PEOPLE 18 CALENDAR 20 OPINION Gado, Kenya’s favourite pen

WOLE SOYINKA

FRONTLINE 22 WHO RUNS NIGERIA? The Power 50 The big beasts who dominate the political, economic and cultural landscape of Africa’s biggest economy

COVER CREDITS: SOUTHERN: GALLO/GETTY IMAGES; EAST AFRICA: NOOR KHAMIS/REUTERS

74 FOO OTBALL Cas shing in on the beautiful game 76 LEA ADERS Gro oupe Loukil chief exe ecutive, Bassem Loukil 78 HAN NNIBAL IN ABIDJAN DOSSIER: INSURANCE Car flood the Kingdom 80 Cars With the recent boom in car ownership comes opportunities for insurance companies operating in Morocco

86 ANALYSIS ‘Green fields’ of insurance growth

34 SOUTH AFRICA Zuma’s great escape Despite fresh scandal tainting the divisive president, his position appears secure

ART & LIFE

40 INTERVIEW Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta

44 OPINION Nana Yaa Ofori-Atta 46 ZANZIBAR Trouble in paradise 47 BENIN An insider’s outsider 47 EGYPT-ITALY Troubled ties

88 LITERATURE ‘Sexuality is omnipresent in the Arab world’ Moroccan author Tahar Ben Jelloun’s new book on infidelity, sexual intimacy and racism in Northern Africa 92 BRIEFS From street traders in Cairo to life beyond jollof rice 94 LIFESTYLE Behind the scenes with 2manysiblings

48 ANANSI

96 TRAVEL Laid-back living in Namibia

COUNTRY FOCUS 51 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO Stay or go? President Kabila is doing everything in his power to avoid holding elections in November •

70 REG GIONAL INTEGRATION Trad de starts at home Afric ca does not trade enough with h itself, despite the real possibilities for greater growth and security. However, things now w seem to be changing

83 INTERVIEW BIMA’s regional manager for Africa, Paddy Partridge

POLITICS

THE AFRICA REPORT

BUSIN NESS

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98 DAY IN THE LIFE Fatou Wurie, Sierra Leone Ebola fighter

This issue carries an insert between 66-67 for selected countries

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THE AFRICA REPORT A Groupe Jeune Afrique publication

BY PATRICK SMITH

57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 www.theafricareport.com

The three wise monkeys of Panama

s we all know by now Mossack Fonseca, the law firm that carelessly left 11.5m secret files lying around, employs the three wise monkeys of Panama City: see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. The firm claims it knew the real owners of 204 of the 14,068 companies it incorporated in the African offshore financial centre of the Seychelles. As one of the founding partners, Jürgen Mossack, who must qualify as the tax-haven lawyer from central casting, said: “People forget that a crime has been committed […] our data has been stolen.” Indeed. But let’s talk for a moment about some of the other crimes that have been committed, such as the outflow from Africa each year of more than $60bn in corrupt payments alongside the illegal export of hundreds of millions of dollars of capital through trade mispricing and tax-evasion schemes from Africa and other developing economies. For context, the lobby group Tax Justice Network reckons that some $21trn-$32trn of laundered money, channelled out of the some of the weakest economies in the world, is sitting in offshore entities. In the Mossack Fonseca moment, it is possible in some cases to join the dots between shadow banking and offshore banking to find who is laundering what money for whom and where. It’s of particular interest for Africa, which suffers unduly at the hands of subterranean finance. It’s good news that South Africa and Britain – which warehouses enormous amounts of money stolen from Africa – have announced investigations into all the individuals whose Mossack Fonseca accounts have surfaced.

CHA I R M A N A ND F O UND E R BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED P UB L I S HE R DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com E X E CUT I VE P UB L I S HE R JÉRÔME MILLAN

Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron, politically on the back foot after details of his family’s dealings with Mossack Fonseca emerged, has even proposed that company directors whose employees facilitate tax evasion be liable to criminal prosecution. This could begin to chip away at the impunity enjoyed by the pinstripe army of banks, law firms and company-formation agents who facilitate the financial laundromat. Mossack Fonseca alone was dealing with 14,000 such companSome believe ies, many of which deserve close scrutiny. $21trnMossack Fonseca’s $32trn in data explosion could laundered accelerate momentum for reform. The internamoney may tional financial instibe sitting tutions in Washington DC should put serious in offshore effort into investigatentities ing the amount and exact provenance of stolen capital, given its growing threat to financial stability. More should also be done on the prosecutorial side. So far, the African Union (AU) has been silent on the implications of the Panama Papers exposé, but it should give serious consideration to a people’s continental anti-corruption court. As the Panama Papers exposed the enforced silence over collusion between corrupt companies and governments in many jurisdictions, one way to circumvent this omertà would be to give citizens access to a multi-jurisdictional court for cases of grand corruption. Why not put it at the top of the agenda for the AU summit in June, while the Panama revelations are ringing in our ears? ●

edit editorial@theafricareport.com THE AFRICA REPORT

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M A R K E T I NG & D E VE L O P M E NT ALISON KINGSLEY-HALL E D I T O R I N CHI E F PATRICK SMITH M A NA G I NG E D I T O R NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com A S S I S TA NT E D I T O R CHARLIE HAMILTON A S S O CI AT E E D I T O R MARSHALL VAN VALEN BUS I NE S S E D I T O R MARK ANDERSON E D I T O R I A L A S S I S TA NT OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI RE G IO NA L E D I T O R S CRYSTAL ORDERSON (SOUTHERN AFRICA) BILLIE ADWOA MCTERNAN (GHANA) S UB - E D I T O R ALISON CULLIFORD PERRY LEOPARD P R O O F R E A D I NG KATHLEEN GRAY A RT DI R E CT O R MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER) SAMA DANAN CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) P R O D UCT I O N PHILIPPE MARTIN CHRISTIAN KASONGO RE S EA R CH SYLVIE FOURNIER P HO T O G R A P HY PIERANGÉLIQUE SCHOULER O NL I NE PRINCE OFORI-ATTA SALES SANDRA DROUET Tel: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – Fax: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 sales@theafricareport.com CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 8 The Old Silk Mill Brook Street, Tring Hertfordshire HP23 5EF United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 - $60 - £35 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com D I F CO M INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS - FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19-60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com A D VE RT I S I NG D I R E CT O R NATHALIE GUILLERY WITH JEANNY CHABON RE G IO NA L M A NA G E R S IBIJOKE FABORODE PASCALE LALLEMAND CÉCILE LOUEDEC PRINTER: SIEP 77 - FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0720 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950-4810 THE AFRICA REPORT is published by GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

LETTERS For all your comments, suggestions and queries, please write to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis Rue d’Auteuil - Paris 75016 - France. or editorial@theafricareport.com

NOT ENOUGH POWER FOR AFRICA

Rwanda Focus Stepping out of the neighbours’ shadows

• Nigeria: Can Buhari put out Delta blaze? • Kenyatta/Ruto: End of the Bromance • Power: Green energy is the real deal

hen President Obama announced Power Africa he said the programme would deliver “light where currently there is darkness” [‘The lights come on slowly’, TAR79 Apr 2016]. The goal of doubling the amount of power to the African continent was hailed all over Growth Africa; however, critics argue Power Africa will After the crash, result in the expansion of lucrative energy deals for US corporations. Almost three years on, the lack of progress emphasises the gap between Obama’s lofty aspiration and the challenge of getting things done on a continent often hindered by Washington’s tepid commitment in Africa. The reality is that Africa remains a somewhat lower priority issue for most of the political establishment in Washington. Has Obama failed to maximize his opportunity as America’s first black president to make African development a US priority? You be the judge. Foday Darboe PhD. candidate, Nova Southeastern University, US w w w.t h e a fr ica r e p o r t. c om

N ° 7 9 • A P R I L 2 016

the fightback African leaders try economic nationalism to beat the commodity trap INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 8 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK• Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 40 rand(tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,000 F CFA

EL NIÑO’S EFFECT ON COCOA CROPS The impact of this year’s El Niño is being felt beyond the grain sector, with West Africa’s cocoa crop also struggling [‘Farmers warned the worst is yet to come’, TAR78 Mar 2016]. This season’s Harmattan – the dry wind that blows between December and March – is reportedly the strongest in 30 years, bringing the main crop production to a standstill. Cocoa deliveries in Côte d’Ivoire – the world’s largest cocoa producer – have gone from 20% ahead of last season in October to 5% behind in late January. Although the slump in output could help drive up international prices, it will put further

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blocks to which they belonged. A key part of the iROKO and Canal+ deal is that it defies those linguistic borders. The arrival of Netflix has brought new competition. It’s survival of the fittest and this partnership between iROKO and Canal+ may be the first of many, as players will need to venture into new territories to stay alive. The other lesson from this story is that the appetite for African content is growing across the board from the biggest to the smallest screens and that’s a good thing! Serge Noukoué Co-founder & Executive Director, NollywoodWeek Film Festival, Paris

WHO DATAS, WINS

The telecoms market in sub-Saharan Africa is transitioning from voice to pressure on Ghana’s cocoa grinders, data [‘Talk is cheap, but data leads the who are struggling to source way’, TAR77 Feb 2016]. Mobile handset discounted light-crop beans and data revenue across the sub-Saharan are being forced to import beans from Africa region has the potential to neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, eating increase from $5bn in 2014 to $13bn away at their already thin margins. in 2020, driven by growing demand Edward George for internet services, availability of Head of Group Research, Ecobank low-price smartphones and expanding 3G and 4G coverage. The appeal of social media apps such as WhatsApp and Facebook coupled with innovative AFRICAN CONTENT ON mobile data offers continues to BIG AND SMALL SCREENS stimulate data usage among the mass Over the past five years, we have seen market. It’s therefore no wonder telcos an increase in VOD and SVOD across the sub-region are focused on platforms across the African continent rolling out 4G data networks to further [‘Nollywood’s French kiss’, TAR77 Feb maximise this opportunity. Devine Kofiloto 2016], but these platforms have so Senior Analyst, Analysys Mason far been extremely loyal to the linguistic

HOW TO GET YOUR COPY OF THE AFRICA REPORT On sale at your usual outlet. If you experience problems obtaining your copy, please contact your local distributor, as shown below. ETHIOPIA: SHAMA PLC, Aisha Mohammed, +251 11 554 5290, aisham@shamaethiopia.com – GHANA: TM HUDU ENTERPRISE, T. M. Hudu, +233 (0)209 007 620, +233 (0)247 584 290, tmhuduenterprise@gmail.com – KENYA: NATION MEDIA GROUP, Antony Mutunga, +254 (0)20 328 8000, amutunga@ke.nationmedia.com – NIGERIA: NEWSSTAND AGENCIES LTD, Marketing manager, +234 (0) 702 7997 288, newsstand2008@gmail.com – SIERRA LEONE: RAI GERB ENTERPRISES, Mohammad Gerber, +232 (0)336 72 469, raigerbenterprise@ gmail.com – SOUTHERN AFRICA: RNA DISTRIBUTION, Butch Courtney, +27 (0)11 602 9800, butchc@mad.co.za • SUBSCRIPTIONS: RAMSAY MEDIA, Karin Mulder, +27 860 100 204, subs@ramsaymedia.co.za – TANZANIA: MWANANCHI COMMUNICATIONS, Emmanuel J Lyimo, +255 716 500 500, elyimo@tz.nationmedia.com – UGANDA: MONITOR PUBLICATIONS LTD, Micheal Kazinda, +256 (0)702 178 198, mkazinda@ug.nationmedia.com – UNITED KINGDOM: COMAG, Mark Swan, +44 (0)1895 433791, Mark.Swan@comag. co.uk – UNITED STATES & CANADA: LMPI, Sylvain Fournier, +1 514 355 5610, lmpi@lmpi.com – ZAMBIA: BOOKWORLD LTD, Shivani Patel, +260 (0)211 230 606, bookworld@ For other regions go to www.theafricareport.com realtime.zm – ZIMBABWE: PRINT MEDIA DISTRIBUTION, Ian Munn, +263 778 075 147, ianmunn@mweb.co.zw

ADVERTISERS’ INDEX

AIR FRANCE KLM p 2; LIQUID TELECOM p 4-5; DANGOTE GROUP p 7; FORD p 9; ALLIANZ p 11; ANAIM p 15; SAHAM INSURANCE p 19 ; NICO VAN DER MEULEN INT. p 27; CONTOURGLOBAL SA p 39; CHANNELS TV p 49; KEMPINSKI FLEUVE CONGO p 50; ORANGE RDC p 54-55; RAWBANK p 57; DRC PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE p 59-62; CONGO INVEST CONSULTING p 65 ; TAR SUBSCRIPTION p 65; HASSON AFRICA p 68-69; AFRICA RE p 84-85 OIL AND GAS COUNCIL p 95; BILE-AKA BRIZOUA BI & ASSOCIES p 97; DDP OUTDOOR p 97; TAR DIGITAL p 97; CNN p 99; CONGO AIRWAYS p 100

MONEY ADVERTISERS’ INDEX

MCB GROUP p 2; ECOBANK p 6-7; AFRICAN GUARANTEE FUND p 11; TAR SUBSCRIPTION p 15; CELLULANT p 25; SAFARICOM p 27; STANDARD BANK p 28 THE AFRICA REPORT

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THE QUESTION To respond to this month’s Question, visit www.theafricareport.com. You can also find The Africa Report on Facebook and on Twitter @theafricareport. Comments, suggestions and queries can also be sent to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis Rue d’Auteuil, Paris 75016, France or editorial@theafricareport.com

At the Global Education & Skills Forum in Dubai in March 2016, delegates debated whether focusing on STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) to the detriment of arts fully equips children for the world ahead

Should Africa prioritise maths and science education over arts?

Yes OLEY DIBBAWADDA Executive Secretary, Association for the Development of Education in Africa (ADEA)

Africa’s march towards the much-touted ‘Continent of the 21st Century’ presupposes putting in place mechanisms for sustained growth and harnessing its human capital. But is this happening? Evidence on the ground points to the contrary: STEM uptake, a key indicator, is far from adequate. The continent requires robust policies and strategies for effective and efficient STEM implementation that promotes the production of high-end professionals required to manage our resources and add value to our products and services. We are importing ‘technical assistance expertise’ whose interest may not necessarily serve the interest of the African continent. Conflict and instability in some of our rich natural resource countries make it difficult to improve our production sectors. The low volume of patents emanating from the continent point to the dearth of innovators and inventors. We need to promote scientific innovation in our education and research institutions, have more trained, qualified and competent STEM teachers and better-equipped research laboratories. Africa must increase the number of centres of excellence promoting STEM, encourage more women into STEM education and provide incentives to enhance ‘brain gain’. ●

No MIRIAM MASONSESAY Country Director, EducAid, Sierra Leone

In a word, No! Wherever education becomes utilitarian rather than an opportunity for fuller realisation of our humanity, the whole community loses and so does the individual. The drive for education to be more focused on STEM is understandable because it seems to serve the needs of the economy. Poverty is bad; the logic follows that wealth is good so everything must focus on the creation of that wealth. The trouble with this logic is that when money is the driving focus, we lose sight of other values and we lose sight of community. We even start justifying all sorts of inhuman behaviour in the name of defeating poverty. When the only poverty we defeat is our own individual poverty though, we end up passing it on to someone else. In order to genuinely defeat poverty we have to have a ‘we’ not ‘me’ focus. The arts are a humanising force when well taught. Literature: the opening of new horizons, fuelling empathy, developing imagination. History: the opportunity to learn from peoples and civilisations gone before so we can avoid the mistakes of the past, etc. However, more important than a battle between STEM and the arts would be a genuine pursuit of education to make the world a better place. The greatest scientists knew that they needed the arts to make their science human and creative. Let’s avoid the divide and pursue a truly humanising education for Africa as for everywhere else in the world! ●

YOUR VIEWS:

The main reason that we need more focus on STEM than arts in Africa is because of imbalance. […] For Africa to take an economic leap, STEM must be prioritised as a matter of urgency. We need the equivalents of the technology and industrial multinationals, from Africa by Africans, to create jobs and prosperity for our people. Matano WaChao Both are needed. [...] We would not be here without art, we would not be here without technology. As Africans we need to invest in both. It just all depends on whether we have the capital or not. Merhawi Haile Africa should do as it thinks best for the good and progress of Africans!! Verna M. Davis No it should not! Nations need scientists and artists for whole and inclusive development. Yvon A. Edoumou No. We should strike a balance between them. Africans are naturally artistic and we must encourage expression. Bill Dindi I think the former. Maths and science is the answer to our living style, understanding the universe and its future. @Simacoder THE AFRICA REPORT

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BRIEFING

INTERNATIONAL 1

$2trn

1 2

SAUDI ARABIA

3 5

The Gulf oil monarchy plans to create a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) to reduce its reliance on oil exports. If fully funded, it would be the world’s largest SWF. There are other signs of change: Riyadh will also float public shares of the state oil giant Aramco.

COLOMBIA

Peace in our times?

ADRIA FRUITOS FOR JA

Hopes were high that a long-anticipated peace deal between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) rebels could be agreed after a new round of negotiations were launched on 5 April. A self-imposed 23 March deadline to sign an accord was missed after the sides were unable to agree details of the demobilisation of FARC’s 6,500 guerrillas. The talks to end the half-century-long conflict also come shortly after the government announced it will open discussions with another militant faction, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional, Colombia’s second-largest guerrilla group.

PANAMA

Trouble via tax havens

The 11.5m confidential files leaked from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca – which revealed ploys to avoid tax by some of the world’s most powerful figures and their allies – continue to make waves worldwide. Iceland’s Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson was the first to resign in March, closely followed by Spain’s industry minister José Manuel Soria. Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin faced criticism after the data dump showed his friend, professional cellist Sergei Roldugin, in control of a series of offshore companies. Putin’s friends were revealed to control some $2bn in assets. The documents from Mossack Fonseca revealed that Khulubuse Zuma, a nephew of South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma, was linked to an offshore firm that bought oilfields in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Elsewhere, Kenya’s deputy chief justice Kalpana Rawal was tied to 11 British Virgin Islands companies. Nigeria’s disgraced former Delta State governor James Ibori, who is currently serving a 13-year jail term for fraud in Britain, also featured in the documents, as did DRC President Joseph Kabila’s twin sister Jaynet Désirée Kabila Kyungu and Angola’s oil minister José Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos.

MALAYSIA

Missing billions

After fending off trouble around Saudi Arabian cash in his personal accounts, Prime Minister Najib Razak is fighting off another scandal. The board of state investment fund 1MDB offered to resign in March. The fund, controlled by Razak, made payments totalling $3.5bn to a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund. However, records suggest the cash went to a British Virgin Islands-registered company not connected to the United Arab Emirates. 1MDB said it was a victim of fraud.

BRAZIL

“I will

never resign under any circumstances ”

PLANET PIX/ZUMA-REA

Brazil’s troubled President Dilma Rousseff stood firm despite being impeached amid claims that she manipulated government accounts

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ADVERTORIAL

MINISTRY OF MINES AND GEOLOGY OF THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA Continuing to consolidate the mining sector to make it a real driver of development

n 2013 the mining sector represented over 80% of Guinea’s exports, 19% of state revenues and 12.5% of GDP. With the aim of reviving this strategic sector, the President of the Republic, Prof. Alpha Condé, tasked the government of Mr. Mamady Youla and, in particular, the new Minister of Mines and Geology, Mr. Abdoulaye Magassouba, with completing the reforms underway and boosting mining activities.

The Republic of Guinea derives most of its revenues from its highpotential mining sector. The current process of streamlining its administration and improving its business climate will attract more investors and help develop a profitable relationship with all stakeholders.

Ministry of Mines and Geology of the Republic of Guinea Immeuble OFAB Almamya, Kaloum - BP 295 Conakry, République de Guinée Tel.: (+224) 631416042

The Mining Code enacted in September 2011 and amended in April 2013 is more attractive, modern and efficient. It strengthens transparency, the fight against corruption and the protection of local communities and the environment. The drawing up of the legislation for its implementation is a government priority. The advances made in the context of these reforms include:

Bauxite is one of the minerals least affected by the global decline in mineral prices, contrary to iron ore. For this reason the government has helped seven companies to start or expand their operations. The success of these companies, most of which are “junior” firms, could significantly increase production, which currently stands at 18 million tonnes per year. At the same time, the Ministry of Mines is engaged in discussions for the restructuring of firms in difficulty.

• Reviewing mining titles and agreements signed before 2011: this task began in the second half of 2013 and is expected to end in April. • Modernising the land registry: started in 2014, with the support of the World Bank, to enhance transparency in the management of mining titles by improving access to information, especially online. • Conducting an institutional audit: undertaken in 2015 to set up a structure capable of meeting the new challenges of the Guinean mining sector. The findings of this audit are currently being implemented. • Artisanal mining reforms: an analysis of artisanal gold and diamond mining, which has social and environmental repercussions, is ongoing. In addition to improving artisanal miners’ quality of life, the reform should support the collection of mining revenues. • Capacity building: the Ministry of Mines receives financial assistance from the African Development Bank to improve the skills of its managers in monitoring increasingly complex projects.

Development of major mining projects After the signing and ratification of the investment framework of the Simandou South project in 2014, Guinea is implementing a major mining projects management mechanism. This includes the creation of the Inter-Ministerial Monitoring Committee for Integrated Mining Projects that will serve as a Single Window. With support from the World Bank, the Government has also set up a master plan that aims to pool the use of rail and port infrastructure linked to mining. In addition, it is working on boosting the sector’s competitiveness on the international market, the capacity of local SME/SMIs and the processing of minerals, as well as improving relations between mining companies and communities.

DIFCOM/DF - PHOTOS : DR.

Mr. Abdoulaye Magassouba, Guinea’s Minister of Mines and Geology.

Increasing short-term output: focus on bauxite

FRONTLINE MUHAMMADU BUHARI LAMIDO SANUSI KEMI ADEOSUN

T.B. JOSHUA TUKUR YUSUF BURATAI

ADE AYEYEMI

CHIMAMANDA NGOZI ADICHIE NASIR AHMAD EL-RUFAI

IBRAHIM MAGU

THE POWER LIST ALIKO DANGOTE

AKINWUNMI AMBODE

WOLE SOYINKA

Who runs

President Buhari was elected in 2015 on a promise to change how the country runs. The Africa Report takes a look at the dealmakers and kingpins who could support or scupper the new government’s agenda By Leo Lawal in Lagos, Billie McTernan, Nicholas Norbrook and Patrick Smith

ower and politics in Nigeria? “We call it the naira factory,” explains one of the rising political stars from his vantage point on the top floor in the Transcorp Hilton in Abuja. “The political parties are like conglomerates, and their central committees are like boards of directors [...] That leaves us the politicians, the activists [...] We’re like contractors looking for business.” We are speaking during the budget season. That is when, as the government finalises its spending plans, the country’sbiggestbusinesspeoplesetupcamp to lobby for contracts. Usually, there is hardly a hotel room to be had. But this year, the capital is half empty. Although President Muhammadu Buhari’s government has announced the biggest budget in history, he insists it will be a budget to fix the economy, a sort of anticontractors budget. “Good luck with that,” was the young politician’s parting shot when quizzed about Buhari’s chances of success. Like many politicians and business types, he was adamant that “political power grows out of a barrel of oil”. This rephrasing of Mao Zedong’s dictum that “power grows out of the barrel of a gun” is rather too neat when it comes to realities of power in Nigeria. Doubtless, the hundreds of billions of dollars from oil sales have transformed – many say distorted – the economy.

set his face against a devaluation of the naira, from which many of them would benefit. They have retaliated with a kind of corporate strike: shut down the economy until Buhari and his team see things their way. The fundamental economic relations between the patrons and their clients have remained stubbornly consistent for decades. So in a simplistic sense, the answer to “Who runs Nigeria?” is whoever controls the patronage machine. At the apex of the machine are the oligarchs, who use their wealth from land, the ownership of banks or oil blocks or control of sundry trading and import licences to exercise power. The stuff of politics remains the fight for control of patron-client networks in government, in business, in the military, even in religious organisations, the media and universities. Some politicians, like Buhari, may want to reform the networks radically, infuse them with a national rather than personal interest. Others, like those in the Occupy Nigeria

Certainly, oil exports have financed a vastfederalgovernmentwithabicameral legislature and 36 state governments, which wield considerable autonomous power. Abuja, the political capital, gives the appearance of being at the centre of a well-functioning state with a clear separation of powers. But national realities quickly intruded on Abuja as it became a vast political marketplace, where deals are struck and favours done if the price is right. Yes, Buhari benefits from the legitimacy of last year’s election and is seen as having the power and determination to fight corruption and tackle the Boko Haram insurgency in the north-east. ‘Political power grows But the debates are far out of a barrel of oil,’ from resolved on many big economic policy quessays a rising political star tions: Who runs the state movement, want to dismantle the netoil company? How effectively are the works altogether. But most political banks regulated? What should the exoperators seem to be looking for a way change rate be? Who should win big to manage the status quo. construction contracts? For the past decade and a half, Those questions are of pressing Nigeria’s economy has been growing daily interest for the bosses of Nigeria’s patronagenetworks,whoseemconfident at a clip, but the overwhelming majority that they can bend the Buhari governof the rewards have gone to the patron ment to their will in the same way they class and their acolytes. That is what did with President Goodluck Jonathan, Buhari wants to reverse. even if the revenues are more modest. With world oil prices hitting the It is a high-stakes game. Buhari’s floor and economic conditions growanti-corruption force are going after ing harsher for the majority, the risk for Buhariisthathelosespopularsupport. ● several powerful barons, and he has

Nig geria?

FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

THE PRESIDENCY

Presidents, politicians and patrons

igeria’s elaborate and expensive federal system is meant to be both acheckonpowerandasafetyvalve forthemanydiscontentsatthegrassroots. It has not had a great record in either area. In the first stab at an elected federal government, headed by President Shehu Shagari, the military lost patience and oustedhimafterhisfirstterm.Thesecond attempt has proved more durable, mainly because the venality and the oppression of the last military regime under General Sani Abacha is still fresh in many minds. Neither has federal government, with power devolved through states and local government, got a great record in addressing grass-roots grievances. That is clear in different ways in the country’s most underdeveloped areas – the Niger Delta, which has hosted pirates and militant groups, and the north-east, which has been devastated by the Boko Haram insurgency. Government in Nigeria is “detached from the people at every level in the federation,” according to Chidi Odinkalu, a former chairman of the National Human Rights Commission. Power politics in Abuja and the state capitals are dominated by the competition for resources. The federal carveup makes state governorships attractive and powerful beyond their regions: collectively, state governors have taken on presidents and won. But under the current austerity, many are diminished figures reduced to petitioning the federal government to bail them out. State governors also see building up their regional base as preparing for power at the centre, first as ministers and then potentially as president. Relations between the presidency and National Assembly have never been particularly functional or even cordial since the return to civil rule in 1999. Even representatives and senators from Buhari’s party tend to become quite obstructive once they get inside the chamber and open to bids by lobbyists. The seven-year effort to push through reform of the state oil company is a great example of the dysfunction. His All Progressives Congress may have majorities in both chambers of the assembly, but if the legislators want gridlock, then gridlock it will be. ●

Federal Executive Council As the economy, blasted by crashing oil prices, slumps into recession, the ministerial spotlight is on finance minister Kemi Adeosun (pictured). With banking experience in Europe and Lagos, she was commissioner of finance in Ogun State under governor Ibikunle Amosun, another close ally of President Muhammadu Buhari’s. With mounting pressure on the naira and export earnings in free fall, Adeosun spends much time fire-fighting. A former governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Fashola has the mother of all “super-ministries” and is in charge of power, works and housing. His mission is straightforward: take corruption out of public works

procurement; build housing for Nigeria’s poorest; and hardest of all, rescue the faltering privatisation of the electricity system. Also under pressure is Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, the deputy oil minister, who is struggling to tackle national fuel shortages. Extra-busy Kachikwu, a former top legal counsel for ExxonMobil, is also managing director of Nigeria’s state oil company. Unlike the other three, Rotimi Amaechi, a former governor of Rivers State and now transport minister, is a politician to his fingertips. It was his move to take on President Goodluck Jonathan that led to the splintering of the People’s Democratic Party in 2013.

STEPHEN JAFFE/IMF STAFF PHOTO/REUTERS

National Assembly Well aware of their image of being overpaid and underworked, it seems Nigeria’s 109 senators and 251 representatives are taking public relations more seriously. But the political battles in Abuja still seem a million miles from the interests of most of their constituents. A case in point is the battle for the presidency of the senate. Bukola Saraki (pictured), a former governor of Kwara State who defected from the People’s Democratic Party to

the governing All Peoples Congress, is in the seat but faces a slew of claims about inaccuracies in his declaration of assets and tax liabilities. Saraki is the scion of an old political family from north-central Nigeria. Like his father, he is a medical doctor turned successful businessman. His wife, Toyin, owns acres of valuable real estate in Lagos. And in the house of representatives, Yakubu Dogara won the speaker’s job after long hours of horse-trading. Not as charismatic as the last speaker, THE AFRICA REPORT

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AFOLABI SOTUNDE/REUTERS

Team Buhari It was a sea change – in both style and content – from the presidency of Goodluck Jonathan when Muhammadu Buhari (pictured) moved into Aso Rock on 31 May 2015. As a former military leader, Buhari carries a quiet authority and is impatient with partisan politics. So the choice of his closest aides has far more to do with life-long friendships than any loyalties to the All Progressives Congress party. The two most important people in the team are chief of staff Abba Kyari and secretary to the federal government Babachir David Lawal. Kyari, an academic economist and former banker, has known Buhari since the 1970s. His brief ranges far and wide, from policy analysis and appointments to running the president’s office. Lawal, an engineer and self-confessed computer geek, has to oversee the workings of all tiers of government as well as liaise with the National Assembly to push through Buhari’s priority policies. Also hand-picked by Buhari was his old associate, Colonel Hammed Ali, who is the new comptroller of customs. Ali’s opening shot was to offer all the directors at customs, which had the reputation as one of the most corrupt government departments, the “opportunity to leave the building” if they were unhappy with his zero-tolerance policy on impropriety.

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The very model of a very modern traditional leader, the emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (pictured) has run commercial banks and won international accolades for his work as central bank governor. He has a very un-emir-like taste for controversy, which included publicly telling President Goodluck Jonathan that more than $20bn in oil revenue had not been paid into the central bank. For that, Jonathan suspended him. Kano’s kingmakers appointed Sanusi as the new emir less than a year later. Rilwan Akiolu is a former policeman who was chosen as oba of Lagos thanks in part to the machinations of Bola Tinubu, who was governor of the state at the time. Akiolu has been a very political oba, campaigning openly for Akinwunmi Ambode, who won last year’s governorship elections. In his 40s, with plenty of business experience, the new ooni of Ife, Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, is another modernising monarch. He wants to pull in investment to make Ife the cultural capital of the Yoruba people and an international destination with high-profile literature, theatre and music festivals. He also wants to attract the Yoruba diaspora of the United States, Brazil and Cuba. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Aminu Tambuwal, who is now governor of Sokoto State, Dogara comes from the north-east and has pledged to win more resources to rebuild the damage wrought by the insurgents there. It is worth watching Dino Melaye, the media-savvy senator for Kogi West who has a penchant for collecting classic cars while running an anti-corruption campaign and, of course, staying in the headlines.

Traditional leaders

FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

STATES

Home to wishes and waste

he 36 state governors assumed an unusual pose last July: going cap in hand to the new president in search of a bailout. They got some of the money they wanted but also a lecture on the need to fix the gross financial mismanagement that has wasted billions of dollars by states and local government authorities. There is the story of the Cross River State’s attempt to build a rival port to

Dubai. Thatplanwasabandonedhalf-way through,aswasthatofJigawaState,which hasone of the shakiest electricity supplies in the country, to build an informationtechnology hub. Katsina State managed to build a school, by mistake, across the border in the neighbouring country of Niger. In contrast, Lagos and Kano have seriously efficient revenue collection servicesandcouldweatherthestormshould the oil price fall to $20 a barrel.

Buhari and his strategists may worry ahead of the 2019 elections at the contours of the new political map. Although the governing All Progressives Congress dominates the south-west, the Middle Belt, the north-west and the north-east, it now controls no states in the oil-producing south-south and south-east. If the oil price moves up again, it would give those opposition states a valuable bargaining chip. ●

Borno State Chairman of the national working committee of the People’s Democratic Party, Ali Modu Sheriff (pictured), is one of the few politicians to have held senior positions in three major parties. A two-term senator and now a two-term governor, Sheriff will be eyeing a job in Abuja after 2019. Sheriff is demanding his state’s share of the ambitious federal project to rebuild communities ravaged by the Boko Haram insurgency.

Nasir el-Rufai (pictured), launched himself into politics under President Olusegun Obasanjo, first as the director of the Bureau of Public Enterprises and then as minister of the federal capital territory. Plain speaking, Rufai does not conceal his contempt for jobbing politicians. His current task as governor of Kaduna – a politically volatile state whose economy has been devastated by years of neglect – is his hardest yet. His plan to regulate preaching in the state, as a means to pre-empt conflict, has managed to unite all faiths against it.

Lagos State

Rivers State

Lagos State governor Akinwunmi Ambode (pictured) is yet another protégé of Bola Tinubu, one of the leaders of the All Progressives Congress. After a rocky start on security and sanitation, Ambode seems to be getting on top of the job. The richest and most populous state in the federation, Lagos has a gross domestic product bigger than many African countries and several US states. It generates more than $1.5bn in tax revenue a year. But the woes of the oil industry, which has its service and supply companies in Lagos, will mean tougher times for the commercial capital.

Kaduna State

Nyesom Wike (pictured) and Rotimi Amaechi – once allies – are now locked in a conflict that is paralysing Rivers State. Wike won the governorship last year on the People’s Democratic Party ticket after a bloody and much-disputed election. He is also now a contender for the PDP leadership but faces a rise in militancy in the region.

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FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

THE RICH

How top tycoons made their fortunes

etween the politicians and the rich, there is considerable overlap. Running a political campaign is extraordinarily expensive in Nigeria, and many a senator is heard complaining, in private, about how much money is needed to buy a seat. Each regime has tended to throw up a set of entrepreneurs whose main skill set is colluding with civil servants to fix prices in a particular market. This is most obvious in the oil sector, where swap deals and shell companies have spirited away trillions of naira over the past few decades, but the phenomenon exists for other commodities, too. Beyond the cabal of professional siphoners, there exists a business class more interested in making money than stealing it. The explosion of the mobile phone business proved that Nigeria’s 180 million-strong market is emerging – something that manufacturers could thrive on if they could just get

the reliable electricity to make manufacturing profitable. Meanwhile, hotels are popping up in secondary towns, not just the state capitals, and agriculture is coming back into vogue. Since the former central bank governor Lamido Sanusi took on corrupt banking practices in 2009, the sector is looking beyond simply financing state budgets – even if their forays into funding local power and oil companies have taken a battering. The current administration is keen on promoting these “productive” capitalists over the traditional rentiers. Cleaner politics and solid roads would be a good place to start.

Town and country Many Nigerians reminisce about the time when factories and farms sprouted across the land – oil and cornering government contracts were not the only game in town. With the rise of Nigerian

consumers, some rich Nigerians are moving back in that direction. Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote (pictured left), opened a $20m tomato processing factory in Kano in March while continuing to work on a $9bn refinery, petrochemicals and fertiliser complex outside of Lagos. He also owns lucrative sugar, flour and cement factories. Dangote is a leading donor to former ruling party and also donates to the current governing party. He has found ways to impress on the Central Bank of Nigeria that it needs to give him access to foreign exchange at official rates, something less-powerful entrepreneurs are struggling to do. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s former presidents seem to do well in agriculture – see Obasanjo Farms or Abdulsalami Abubakar’s Maizube Farms. The impeached governor of Adamawa State, Murtala Nyako, also runs a successful farm. Watching a slow-motion video of Eko Atlantic City emerge from the ocean is THE AFRICA REPORT

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THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA? | FRONTLINE

a strangely compelling experience. The brainchild of brothers Ronald and Gilbert Chagoury, it is part of the accelerating property boom in one of Africa’s most expensive cities. The Chagoury brothers’ goal is to pull in corporate headquarters and expensive serviced apartments into the development. Growth here – along with the Lekki Peninsula – will continue to make landowners and real estate moguls rich.

Fuelling profits Building Nigeria’s future will be manna for infrastructure companies like Julius Berger. Its chairman is establishment heavyweight Mutiu Sunmonu, who also ran Shell’s Nigeria wing and sits on the board of Unilever Nigeria. One of Nigeria’s other big infrastructure firms, Bi-Courtney, is run by the irrepressible billionaire Wale Babalakin. Theboomofindigenousoilcompanies has been the story of the last decade in Nigeria, with Wale Tinubu’s Oando so lucrative he moved some of his money withthehelpoftheofficesofPanamanian THE AFRICA REPORT

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lawyers Mossack Fonseca of Panama Papers fame. Others have risen, such as Kola Karim (pictured second from left) of Shoreline and and Austin Avuru of Seplat Petroleum. They will be smarting from the oil price trough, with Oando reporting one of Nigeria’s biggest-ever corporate losses last year. Downstream marketers, some of whom made unseen fortunes from opaque contracts signed with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, will also be feeling the burn. Phillip Ihenacho of Seven Energy hopes that his bet on the gas market is coming good. He says gas deliveries from the company trebled last year, though earnings fell more than 70%. But his other main venture, the Azura power plant in Edo State, has the greatest transformative power and is set to produce 4,500MW by the middle of 2018.

Manna from Heaven Nowhere has the Nigerian gospel of money been heard so clearly as in the church, where pastors have enlisted the entertainment business in the battle

to save souls. This is a lucrative task for which they are not required to pay tax. A Rolex, a private jet and a fleet of luxury sedans are clear signs of God’s favour on earth. Sell-out tours for Nigerian pastors in South Africa can attest to the ability to make money while doing God’s work, a novel Nigerian export. Despite a Synagogue Church of all Nations building collapse in which 89 South Africans were killed, pastor T.B. Joshua (pictured third from left) is still wildly popular in the country. He is estimated by Forbes to be Nigeria’s third-richest pastor, with a net worth of around $10m-$15m. This is positively dwarfed by Bishop David Oyedepo’s estimated net worth of $150m. He started the Living Faith World Outreach Ministry – known as Winners’ Chapel – and regularly sells out tickets for his 50,000-seat church complex in Ota. This is convenient for former President Obasanjo, whose farm is down the road, underlining the fusing of political and religious elites. Closer to the circuits of power today, the Redeemed Church of God boast vice-president Yemi Osinbajo and his spokespersonaspastors.Thepoliticaland business class regularly gather at pastor Enoch Adeboye’s Lagos-based gathering, which offers rich pickings for tithes.

Where the money is To get ahead in Nigeria, best have a bank. Telecoms tycoon Mike Adenuga owns a chunk of Equitorial Trust Bank. Oba Otudeko, who runs the Honeywell conglomerate, owns serious stakes in both First Bank and Ecobank Transnational. Ecobank has become a Nigerian bank in all but headquarters since it swallowed the troubled Oceanic Bank in 2011. After Ecobank posted serious losses in 2015, new chief executive Ade Ayeyemi (pictured right) is battling to turn the ship around. The next generation of banking fortunes will be made by looking to finance Nigeria growth businesses in the energy and manufacturing sectors, or at least that is the hope. With the current oil price and a tough foreignexchange stance from the presidency, many Nigerian bankers have nostalgia for the easier days of the oil boom. ●

FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

THE TALKERS

Loud voices with soft power

he country’s investigative journalists, civil society leaders, trade unionists and lawyers finds ways to be heard amidst a cacophony of contestation. Bespoke coalitions like the Occupy Nigeria movement, which forced the Goodluck Jonathan government to backtrack on a complete removal of fuel subsidies, and the #BringBackOurGirls campaign show the direct ways that regular citizens can project their voices. While the courts overturn crooked election results, the country’s media

offers a day-to-day check on waste and corruption both in the private sector and in government. Despitethebackroomdealingsinpolitics, many conflicts find other means of resolution. Political scientist and then election commission head Attahiru Jega organised a vote in 2015 that many feared would result in widespread violence. Instead, Jega’s organisational skill helped in the peaceful handover from one civilian leader to another, strengthening Nigeria’s institutions rather than its personalities.

Nigeria’s writers, artists and intellectuals form the country’s soft power base, which gives the country greater prominence on the international scene and can shift public debates on crucial topics at home. With a young and rapidly growing population, Nigeria is home to a stable of young and politically engaged authors who highlight the experiences of the marginalised and disenfranchised to make sure that everyone has a better chance of telling their own stories and contesting popular narratives. ●

Trade unions

AKINTUNDE AKINLEYE/REUTERS

Nigeria’s labour unions have used their mobilising capacity as a check on the government. The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), led by Francis Olabode Johnson since 2014, is one of the most powerful unions. Nigeria’s labour unions are a far cry from South Africa’s in terms of their political power, but Ayuba Wabba – who has led a series of healthcare unions – leads the National Labour Congress (NLC) and seeks to protect the rights of workers. The NLC last showed its strength in organising opposition to the removal of fuel subsidies in 2012. The new target of the NLC’s anger is a 45% increase in energy tariffs and the government’s privatisation campaign.

Intellectuals and academics Lawyers Lawyer seemed to be the most common profession among the ministers appointed by Buhari last year. Udoma Udo Udoma, for example, is now Nigeria’s budget minister. Prior to that, he was a senator and founded a law firm initially focused on the oil sector. Nike Ransome-Kuti (pictured), scion of the popular Ransome-Kuti family, is flying the flag of her forebears. She is

a highly regarded corporate lawyer when she is not on the street leading demos. Ayo Obe was a human rights activist in the late 1990s under the brutal Abacha dictatorship. She still practises law, with the International Crisis Group.

Nigeria’s intellectuals and thinkers are influencing policy debates and government decisions. The director of the MacArthur Foundation’s Africa office, Kole Shettima, is directing funding to charities working on health and human rights in Nigeria and across the continent. Nobel Prize-winning playwright Wole Soyinka (pictured) is influential in the arts, launching the popular Aké Festival. Attahiru Jega, who left academia to organise a vote that led to a peaceful

democratic transition in 2015, is now back in the ivory tower, as chancellor of Plateau State University and will continue to put his real-world and theoretical skills to use in research in political science. Another boffin putting his book smarts to good use is the head of the Presidential Advisory Committee against Corruption, law professor Itse Sagay. Sagay will use his chance to have Buhari’s ear to push for legal reform and more accountability.

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Artists and writers Nigeria still manages to punch above its weight on the global cultural scene, whether it is with Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s (pictured, right) gripping stories about the fight for Biafran independence and her essays in support of feminism, or Teju Cole’s (pictured) writings in the New Yorker on terrorism and freedom of speech. Late literary heavyweight Chinua Achebe was not a one-off. Nigerian businesses are sponsoring writing prizes in the hope that more people will be able to make a living from their passion. And while many Nigerians have found a home on the international scene, authors such as Born on a Tuesday writer Elnathan John and poet Dike Chukwumerije are based in Nigeria and writing about their homes. It is not just the writers. Publishers, like decade-old Cassava Republic, founded by Bibi Bakare-Yusuf, are making their marks, too. Much like the filmmakers of Nollywood, most of this progress on the writing scene has been made without the help of government. The current building of networks and connections should also lead to big things to come for Nigeria’s writers.

Civil society Adetokunbo Mumuni, the executive director of the the SocioEconomic Rights and Accountability Project, is the leader of a civil society organisation that is holding Buhari’s feet to the fire over transparency issues. It recently won a landmark court case that obliges the government to reveal which corrupt officials have been secretly returning money to the treasury. Rather than use the courts to strengthen civil society’s capacity to hold the government to account and spur development, Tunji Lardner (pictured, top), and the West African

Across print, radio, TV and digital platforms, Nigeria’s journalists are reporting on corruption and shaping the political debate. In 1995, John Momoh (pictured) founded the most influential news station in Nigeria, Channels TV. Momoh runs the station with his wife Sola, another popular TV face. Also competing for viewers is EbonyLifeTV, founded by Mo Abudu, one of the best networked people in Nigeria. In print, This Day publisher Nduka Ogbaigbena is the president of the Newspaper Proprietors’ Association of Nigeria and has been a fixer in the industry for decades. Many media aides to top politicians in Nigeria are his former reporters. Amongst the business-focused press, Business Day’s Phillip Isakpa has great influence. He is now in management after editing the business daily for almost a decade. Premium Times managing editor Dapo Olorunyomi knows how to tell an interesting tale about corruption. He was chief of staff to Nuhu Ribadu when he was the chairman of the Nigerian anticorruption agency, and his online magazine is one of the media involved in the Panama Papers leak.

Media

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THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA? | FRONTLINE

NGO Network are using technology. Some of Nigeria’s religious leaders use their profiles to build communities. Father Matthew Hassan Kukah (pictured, bottom), the Catholic bishop of Sokoto in the mainly Muslim north, supports dialogue

between the faiths. He has also held leadership roles in a government electoral reform commission and in the dialogue between the Ogoni people and Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta. The sultan of Sokoto, Muhammadu Sa’ad Abubakar, put down his arms and military fatigues to become a spiritual leader of the country’s Muslim population. He also leads the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs and preaches in support of peace and unity to counteract Boko Haram’s Islamist militancy and other extremist ideologies.

FRONTLINE | THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA?

LAW AND ORDER

Battling Boko Haram and Delta fighters

ith a reputation for toughness honed as an officer in the civil war and a military leader in the 1980s, President Muhammadu Buhari was above all expected to restore security in the country. At best, this remains a work in progress. For Buhari, law and order are umbilically joined: the fight against corruption and establishing the rule of law are necessary conditions for defeating the insurgency in the north-east. Buhari was appalled at the decline in the standards of probity in the armed forces by 2015 and the lack of esprit de corps. Senior officers, in league with politicians and private contractors, were profiting from bogus arms procurement contracts.Withanannualbudgetofsome $6bn-$7bn between 2010 and 2015, the military was decisively losing the battle against the Boko Haram militants who controlled more than 20 local governments at the peak of their power. By investigating those arms procurement contracts and prosecuting the officers involved, Buhari’s government wants to send a message to other senior officers. He has also reorganised the military’s deployments, with two divisions now based in the north-east heartlands of the insurgency. Unquestionably, the military has pushed back Boko Haram, but its failure to retrieve the rebels’ hostages – such as the more than 200 schoolgirls from Chibok – is a blot on his record. So too are living conditions in Adamawa, Borno andYobestates,wheretheinsurgentscan no longer hold territory but can threaten those trying to return to their abandoned homesteads. The people need a beefed up police force with better equipment and working conditions. The other key security zone is the Niger Delta, where militant factions are threateningtoresumearmedoperationsshould the government end the amnesty programme for fighters or withdraw planned laws giving oil-producing states an extra share of export revenue and company profits. Buhari’s strategy is to launch substantive development initiatives to tackle underlying socioeconomic discontents in the Delta and in the north-east as well as to boost deployments of soldiers. ●

Judges, managers and regulators Courts, commissions and regulators are part of the government’s rule-of-law drive. One of the youngest lawyers to take on the positions of attorney general and justice minister, Abubakar Malami played a leading role in talks that brought the now ruling coalition into being in 2013. Chief Justice Mahmud Mohammed is a muchawarded judge, now dealing with the deluge of high-level anti-corruption cases that the Buhari government is pursuing. Experienced investigator Ibrahim Magu (pictured) has

Securocrats At the apex of the security system is General (retired) Babagana Monguno, who as national security adviser works closely with the president. They share plans for modernising and expanding the country’s armed forces to deal with growing regional threats. At the age of 55, the chief of army staff, Lieutenant General Tukur Yusuf Buratai, still has a legendary fitness routine and previously commanded a West African regional force, which includes Chad and Cameroon, against the Boko Haram insurgents. He has faced a storm of criticism over the army’s clashes with Shia Muslims in Kaduna. Rear Admiral Ibok Ete Ekwe Iba joined the navy in 1979, moving up the ranks to become chief executive officer of Navy Holdings Limited before being appointed as chief of naval staff. The new head of the presidential amnesty programme, General (retired) Paul Boroh formerly played a leading role in the United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone. From Bayelsa, Boroh knows the region well but faces a new generation of militant leaders. Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar from Bauchi State was previously the chief of administration in the Nigerian Air Force before his appointment as chief of air staff. One of the most talented pilots in the force, he will be expanding the air war against Boko Haram. A veteran intelligence officer at 63, Lawal Musa Daura (pictured), has the task as director of the State Security Service to improve operational standards and re-professionalise his agent corps. He hails from President Buhari’s home town of Daura. THE AFRICA REPORT

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THE POWER LIST: WHO RUNS NIGERIA? | FRONTLINE

BOKO HARAM/AFP

Independent National Electoral Commission, is an expert on guerrilla warfare and counterterrorism, and taught at the National Defence Academy. He will need that military background: the first elections under his leadership – in Kogi and Rivers states – saw violence and malpractice. Umar Garba Danbatta has taken over the chairmanship of the Nigerian Communications Commission in the middle of its biggest legal clash to date, as it deals with the fallout from the $5bn fine, later cut by about $1.5bn, for South Africa’s telecom operator MTN.

Rebels

replaced Ibrahim Lamorde as chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) after it had languished during the Goodluck Jonathan administration. The future of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), which was meant to focus more on corporate crime while the EFCC nabbed the politicians, is uncertain. Ekpo Nta, whose mandate as ICPC chairman has a year to run, will be involved in discussions about the reshaping of the agency. Mahmood Yakubu, the new chairman of the

Ambassador Ayo Oke is a veteran of the National Intelligence Agency and now its director general. He is also an expert in foreign intelligence. The inspector general of police, Solomon Arase, is due to retire this year, but the government is likely to tap his academic and practical expertise given the dire state of the country’s policing operations. THE AFRICA REPORT

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It was a rare unambiguous success for Nigeria’s military in its battle against Islamist militant groups in the north-east when they arrested Khalid alBarnawi, one of the leaders of the Ansaru group in Lokoja. Barnawi split with Boko Haram over a money dispute and its failure to attack high-profile Western targets. He has been linked to the suicide bombing of a UN office in Abuja five years ago. He cultivated links with Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, which has organised bombings in Mali, Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire in recent months. His erstwhile co-fighter and head of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, remains at large, although some reports claim he has been badly wounded. Boko Haram’s new strategy of hit-and-run terrorist attacks, often using young girls as suicide bombers,

has proved brutally effective. Shekau and the group’s other leaders have forged links with the Islamic State rebels in the region, with some sharing of weapons and training. For now, Boko Haram prefers terrorist attacks to any sustained engagement with Nigeria’s military. Those calling for an amnesty programme in the north-east used to cite the deals struck with Niger Delta militants such as Government Tompolo, who was awarded a sheaf of security contracts. He is now on the run, wanted on corruption charges. Another prominent militant, Mujahid Dokubo Asari has also become discreet. In their place is a new generation of fighters, such as Solomon Ndigbara (aka Osama bin Laden or Solo), who are building up forces for what they think will be a new fight with the government in the Delta.

Our Rooms

!"#$ %$&'()* +(,-)#($.

COUNTRY FOCUS

Democratic Republic of Congo

TUTONDELE MIANKEN/AFP

President Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Stay or go? As the DRC’s economy begins to struggle, the country’s political debate is focused on elections that must take place by November and the constitution’s presidential term limits. It seems impossible to meet that deadline, but President Kabila is not letting on about how he will play the crisis By Aaron Ross in Kinshasa

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uspended from the towering monument dedicated to Belgium’s King Albert I opposite Kinshasa’s iconic central train station,abluebannerscreams at the traffic below: “LET’S DIALOGUE FOR THE GOOD OF CONGO.” For more than four months, tropical squalls have felled it from its perch – sometimes several times a week. Each time, it has been promptly restored, a beacon of persistence against gathering storms. The banner is an apt metaphor for the political initiative it touts. Announced to great pomp last November by ● ● ●

COUNTRY FOCUS | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC CAMEROON

REP. OF GABON THE CONGO KINSHASA

Atlantic Ocean

SOUTH SUDAN

President Joseph Kabila, who has ruled the vast Central African country since his father’s assassination in 2001, the so-called “national inclusive dialogue” has had an uneven start. The government presented the talks as an urgent measure to set the conditions for peaceful elections after votes in 2006 and 2011 were marred by bloodshed. The first progress came only in April when an international facilitator, Togo’s former prime minister, Edem Kodjo, announced the imminent installation of a preparatory committee. The vast majority of major opposition parties have rejected the dialogue and said it is a pretext to delay the presidential election slated for 27 November and to allow the term-limited Kabila to cling to power.

Kisangani Goma

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

UGANDA RWANDA BURUNDI TANZANIA

Lubumbashi ANGOLA 400 km

ZAMBIA

DRC AT A GLANCE POPULATION URBAN POPULATION (% of total)

42%1

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

50.32 $2.06 billion3

GDP

$33.12 billion1

GDP GROWTH

9%1

INDUSTRY (value added, % of GDP)

33.2%1

CONSUMER-PRICE INFLATION

1.2%2

INTERNET USERS (% of population)

3%1

MOBILE CELLULAR SUBSCRIPTIONS (per 100 people)

531

SOURCES: WORLD BANK 20141, AFDB 20142, UNCTAD 20143

74.88 million1

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

STATE OF THE ECONOMY Real GDP growth and contributions by sector 10 5 0

-10 -15

agriculture industry services indirect taxes GDP growth

-5

2000 02

2014

EXTRACTING VALUE Exports of minerals (percent of GDP)

zinc cobalt cassiterite

gold copper diamonds

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2002

2004

2006

2008

ector, Kalev Mutond (see page 56), and the interior minister, Evariste Boshab – instrumental in negotiations over financing the elections – have been drafted into key political roles, even as they oversee a crackdown on Kabila’s critics. The strategy of glissement has taken few by surprise. As soon as the January 2015 protests against alleged efforts by Kabila to cling to power ended in the government withdrawing a controversial reform to the electoral law, opponents warned that Kabila would next look to technical delays based on a lack of money, an obsolete voter registry and security problems. Even so, they have been unable to do much to stop it. “The glissement is already a fact – the opposition has [done] nothing really to counteract this,” says Hans Hoebeke, a DRC analyst for the International Crisis SLOWDOWN TACTICS And yet, few of Kabila’s allies seem Group (ICG), a non-governmental organisation. “Thus far, through the [electoverly concerned. Indeed, if the masoral commission and] the courts, the ter plan, as the president’s opponents majority has succeeded in controlling charge, is glissement, or a slippage of the playing field with very little effective the election calendar, then Kabila’s reaction from either the opposition or coalition could hardly have hoped for better. More than just a delaying tactic, the international community.” it has also become a one-size-fits-all In March, the president of the electrhetorical cudgel for Kabila’s defendoral commission, Corneille Nangaa, ers. Asked by The Africa Report if Kabila told the media that he would request would be willing to commit to leaving a “small extension” to the presidential power after the election in order to election in order to update voter rolls, reassure the opposition that his real said to exclude more than seven milstrategy is not to change the constilion eligible voters who have turned tution, the ruling coalition’s spokes18 since the 2011 election and to conman, André-Alain Atundu, tain the names of millions replied with a trusty retort: of dead people. Previously, “The dialogue is there prethe commission said that revising the rolls would take cisely to build confidence.” between 13 and 16 months. The current stalemate The government has failed to marks a reversal for Kabclarify how it plans to raise ila’s foes, who seemed to the funding for a planned begin 2016 with a spring in slate of local, provincial and their step as the dialogue national elections estimated floundered. Kabila’s comillion to cost some $1.2bn. alition dealt with several high-profile defections and people aged 18-22 are While the United States not included on voter the country’s fractious opambassador to the United rolls, according to the position formed a new platNations, Samantha Power, electoral commission form committed to the prespushed back against the SOURCE: CENI ident’s departure this year. commission’s time estimWell aware of the country’s ates, the position of Western continuing fragility and Kabila’s acute powers on the elections seems to be political weaknesses, the president’s alsoftening. “Behind the scenes, everylies only briefly countenanced the bruteone knows it’s not going to happen force method used by other presidents in [this year],” says Stephanie Wolters, a the region to stay in power. Instead, they Congo analyst at the Institute for Sehave rallied around an apparent strategy curity Studies in South Africa. of delay to extend Kabila’s time in office All of this has forced the opposiuntil they can find a long-term solution. tion to recalibrate its approach. Several leaders have even begun to speak Top allies like national intelligence dir●●●

2010

2012

SOURCE: IMF, SEPTEMBER 2015

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GWENN DUBOURTHOUMIEU/AFP

openly about the possibility of a transition if November’s election is missed, though they insist that Kabila cannot be the one to lead it. If the wily Kabila appears to be winning the parlour game so far, it would be a mistake to ignore the DRC that dwells beyond the corridors of power. Nearly the size of western Europe and with a population of more than 70 million, the DRC has defied firm centralised control in the best of times. Kabila, never popular in the west of the country, now faces growing discontent in his traditional eastern fiefs too. Protests in January 2015 resulted in more than 40 deaths, hinting at widespread disaffection with the results of Kabila’s 15-year rule. Despite some of the fastest economic growth rates in the world – averaging 8% over the past five years – poverty reduction has remained anaemic and inner-city residents complain of worsening overcrowding and deteriorating infrastructure. Youth activist groups have emerged to channel the largely inchoate anger that percolates on the streets, leading to brutal crackdowns by authorities. Deterioratingeconomicconditionsare likely to amplify tensions. Sharp drops in the price of commodities like copper, cobalt and oil that the DRC depends on for some 98% of its export revenues are just starting to be felt. Mines in the copper-producing southeast have started THE AFRICA REPORT

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laying off workers, the central bank has slashed its 2016 growth forecast from 9% to 6.6%, and foreign-currency reserves are at their lowest levels in years. After five years of remarkable macroeconomic stability, the Congolese franc is slowly but surely losing ground to the United States dollar. A return to the hyperinflation of the 1990s might not be on the cards, but Kinshasa residents say they are starting to feel the pinch in the price of basic staples. “The direct social impact of the economic crisis is likely to contribute more to the instability than the political uncertainty,” says the ICG’s Hoebeke. “The combination of both makes for a dangerously unpredictable cocktail.” UNDER PRESSURE

The opposition is keen to harness this discontent and steadily increase the pressure on Kabila. “Joseph Kabila needs to understand that he can no longer hold the electoral process hostage,” says Olivier Kamitatu, whose G7 opposition coalition endorsed the powerful former governor from the DRC’s copper-mining south-east, Moïse Katumbi (see page 66), to represent it in the presidential election. Katumbi has not yet officially declared his candidacy, saying he is trying to first unite the different wings of the opposition. He has said the opposition will organise a series of marches in July to pressure Kabila to commit to leaving.

A 2011 billboard in Kinshasa promotes President Kabila’s public-works projects

Despite murmurings of discontent within the ranks of the armed forces, it is still Kabila who controls the guns. With Kabila known for his silence, the answers to the most important questions of all remain exasperatingly elusive. What are his true intentions? Can he be gently coaxed into retirement with the right mix of personal protections and incentives? Or is he – as many analysts believe – quietly weighing the balance of forces, keeping his options open until the very last possible moment? Then, there is the question of his allies and family members, whom analysts say could fear material loss and even potential prosecution if Kabila is no longer president. A proposal in the senate would extend far-reaching immunities to Kabila’s collaborators, but the measure has yet to be taken up formally. Over bottles of Tembo and Primus beer, speculation over these questions mixes these days with rumba to form the new soundtrack of Kinshasa’s bars. But, says Pascal Kambale, the former DRC country director for the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa: “Anyone trying to predict outcomes or what it will look like process-wise has learned nothing from the complex political history of the country.” ●

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PEOPLE TO WATCH

1 ith the will-he-stay-or-willhe-go speculation swirling around President Joseph Kabila, spy chief Kalev Mutond (1) is a crucialoperatorinKabila’scorner.Onone front, the director of the Agence Nationale deRenseignementshasbeenquashingopposition protests about the possibility of Kabila staying beyond the end of his last constitutional term, and on the other he has been the government’s envoy, trying 3 2 to get opposition parties around the table for a national dialogue. Oppositionist and hiring of a personal public relations firm former Kabila ally Moïse Katumbi has are signs that Ponyo could be considcriticised Mutond, saying he is behind ering a run for the presidency. Even if the shrinking of freedoms and political he does not, political insiders say that space of recent months. he now has enough money to remain a New civil society groups like political force for some time. (which means ‘whistle’ in Kiswahili) and Lutte pour le changement (LUCHA) The government has said that its rushed programme of decentralisation, have been some of the victims of the which came into force in July 2015 with government crackdown. Both are part the establishment of 26 provinces to reof the umbrella alliance of non-governplace the previous 11, was a precondition mental organisations and parties in the for the holding of national elections. One Front Citoyen 2016. This was formed in December 2015 to force the government of the apparent goals of the plan for new to hold presidential elections before 2016. provinces was to divide up Katumbi’s Filimbi leaders Yves Makwambala and Fred Bauma His book launch and hiring of are in prison awaiting trial a personal PR firm suggest on charges of threatening state security after participPonyo may run for president ating in a conference with similar groups from across the continent, base, Katanga Province, where he served including Senegal’s Y’en a Marre and as governor from 2007 to 2015. Home to much of the country’s copper Burkina Faso’s Le Balai Citoyen. Other Filimbi leaders including Floribert Anzuand cobalt reserves, Katanga became luni, Yangu Kiakwama and Franck Otete four new provinces. Ruling party stalwart have fled the country due to safety fears Richard Muyej stood unopposed and but say that they will continue to fight to won the late March indirect governorship election for one of them – Lualaba – and strengthen the country’s democracy. Despite repeated claims of an upcomhas quickly run into problems with the ing government reshuffle, prime minister region’s miners. They are not backing Augustin Matata Ponyo remains in his his plans for a toll road to Zambia and post and seems to be manoeuvring to imare worried about the new provinces’ prove his political future. The Kinshasa demands for taxes and other fees (see page 58). He says his immediate priorities rumour mill says that the launch of his book, Pour un Congo Emergent, and the are fighting insecurity in the provincial

MAXPPP

The constitution is clear that Kabila must organise elections and step down before 2016, and forces are aligning to prepare for any eventuality

Elections on their minds

capital of Kolwezi and raising as much revenue as possible. The DRC’s artist class has been divided about its political engagement, with musicians often accused of taking money to sing in support of political causes. Founder of the ‘Tchatcho’ musical wave Koffi Olomidé (2) has come out against Kabila attempting to outstay his rights. His song ‘Congo Mon Amour’, which was released in February, says the government must hand over power and respect the constitution. Despite his claims in November 2015 that he would one day like to become the president of Africa, Olomidé is sticking to music for now. His late 2015 album 13ème Apôtre was a success on the back of the song ‘Selfie’. Crisis does not have politics as an exclusivedomain.InlateMarch,theBanque Internationale pour l’Afrique au Congo (BIAC) – one of the country’s largest banks –sackedCEOMichelLosembeand replaced him with its public sector and Kinshasa director, Anne Mbuguje (3). The bank has admitted to suffering from serious – but “temporary” – liquidity problems after the central bank cut off a financing deal that had been in place for years. Mbuguje now faces a public fearful of a bank collapse and the difficult task of raising funds amidst global growth concerns and the recent dips in the price of mining commodities. ● Honoré Banda in Kinshasa THE AFRICA REPORT

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COUNTRY FOCUS

Banro, owner of the Twangiza mine, is keen to retain the status quo

MINING

A code you can live by

PHILIP MOSTERT

Reforms of mining legislation have stalled once again after an angry reaction by companies who say taxes are still too high while commodity prices are low

ines minister Martin Kabwelulu strode about this year’s Mining Indaba, which took place as usual in Cape Town in early February, with an unusually confident swagger. True, a collapse in mining revenue has left a gaping hole in the government’s budget, but Kabwelulu was celebrating nine years in his position, making him the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) longest-serving cabinet minister. “I don’t know why I’ve stayed in position so long,” Kabwelulu said modestly, “but the fact that I have shows that we have stability in governance in our country.” In an apparent stab at his host government, which had recently changed mines and finance ministers in controversial circumstances, Kabwelulu added: “We do not just change our ministers on a whim.” Investors and mining companies at the Mining Indaba were eager to hear what exactly was going on with a drawnout process the government launched in 2013 to review its mining code. The initial drafts of a revised code hiked taxes, increased the size of the stakes miners had to give the state in joint ventures, and reduced the time period before which the state could seek to amend contracts. Companies reacted furiously in 2015, with Randgold leading the charge, saying that the proposed changes would choke off new investment and cost both the company and the country dearly. The government initially stuck to its guns,

and Kamituga. Both these sites, however, are the work sites of artisanal miners reluctant to move out, as well as numerous militiamen and soldiers who prey on the diggers and tax their but the drastic collapse in mineral commeagre earnings. Meanwhile, in the volatile Nord-Kivu modity prices caused it to lose its nerve. Province territory of Walikale, TorontoThe government then reduced the proposed increase in taxes, but the comlisted Alphamin is seeking to build an underground tin mine at Bisie. Bisie, where panies insisted it was not enough. In late the tin deposit reportedly runs hundreds 2015, the draft of a new code made it of metres deep at eye-wateringly good through the council of ministers and to grades, was notorious for years for its the national assembly, where it sits, we are told, with its mining sub-committee. tens of thousands of artisanal miners and an endless procession of violent, rent-seeking military forces. Today, howJOINT VENTURES The news Kabwelulu took to the Mining ever, most of the diggers have given up, in large part because of the fall in the tin Indaba was that in the interim the old price, making Bisie less interesting too for code would remain in force. His mesthe soldiers and militiamen. In a major sage was exactly what Randgold chief boost for the project, South executive Mark Bristow, Africa’s Industrial Developfor one, had been wantment Corporation took a ing to hear. On 19 Janu15% stake in Alphamin in ary, Bristow reported November 2015. that he had signed three joint-venture exploration Down in the Copperbelt, agreements with junior miners are reeling from miners that hold permits falls in the price of copnext to Randgold’s Kibali per and cobalt. A further headache for miners there gold mine. The new joint Percentage mineral is the proliferation of disventures, Bristow said, processing plants more than double the size putes between the authorin Katanga Province owned by of Randgold’s holdings in ities of the new provinces Chinese companies the DRC. of Haut Katanga and LuSOURCE: KPMG Keeping the mining alaba, where their mining code as is will also beneassets lie, about who gets fit Toronto-listed Banro Corporation, to tax the companies and for what. The the country’s only other industrial provincial authorities are pushing for gold miner. Banro is in production at companies to pay both of them. The Twangiza in Sud-Kivu and at Namoya companies are resisting, and matters in Maniema Province and plans to start are already starting to get messy. ● producing at two other sites: Lugushwa Gregory Mthembu-Salter in Kinshasa

80%

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ADVERTORIAL

FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN DRC

DEMOCRATIC C Agriculture,

R EPU U BLIC C a necessary step!

OF CONGO CONGO

he Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) boasts a huge agricultural potential. That is why the go vernment has rolled out a strategy to structurally transform and diversify the economy as a way of boosting its resilience in an increasingly hostile international economic environment.

From top to bottom Bukanga-Lonzo Agro-Industrial Park. H.E. Mr. Joseph Kabila, President of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Route One between Kinshasa and Kikwit. The Prime Minister (left) exchanging ideas with the Ministers of Agriculture and Industry.

DEMOCRATIC C

R EPU U BLIC C

OF CONGO CONGO

“

The government opted to promote and modernize agriculture by developing AgroIndustrial Parks.

he crisis that rocked the raw materials market prompted African countries to downwardly revise their respective economies’ growth forecasts. Based primarily on extractive industries— gold, diamonds, oil, copper and cobalt—they mainly hitched their stars to one wagon, China, whose appetite seemed insatiable. Until it wasn’t anymore. Prices did not take a temporary tumble; they collapsed due to the slowdown in China’s consumption. Oil lost up to half its value.

To deal with the bleak economic outlook, African leaders rolled out measures ranging from theorems to technical principles and even prayer, as in Zambia. But every cloud has a silver lining. They learned their lesson and agreed that a sustainable solution needed to be found: few countries had emerged from the crisis unscathed. So the crisis spawned resilience—in other words, the ability of economies to withstand endogenous and exogenous shocks. The only way forward was economic diversification. Agriculture was naturally a topic of discussion. Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria’s former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, had a clear vision when he became head of the AfDB in May 2015. He wanted Africa to engage into agricultural transformation—and let everybody know it. In his view, everything had changed. Opportunities were cropping up on a swiftly-growing continent. Production equipment had evolved. Tractors now had air conditioning. What’s more, agriculture offered many job opportunities, especially for young people: Africa spends nearly $35 billion a year on food imports! All that remained was to encourage them to design and invest in agricultural projects.

A tractor and combine for harvesting maize.

The DRC’s leaders did not wait for the crisis to hit and raw materials prices to bottom out before deciding to focus on agriculture. The President had long advocated food self-sufficiency. His Prime Minister, Matata Ponyo, dreamed of feeding the huge country and limiting food imports, for which it pays nearly three billion dollars a year. The concept, which eventually will be rolled out nationwide, is based on three key components: (1) development of commercial farms; (2) support for smallholders living on the edges of selected sites; and (3) creation of capital-, technology- and labour-intensive agricultural cooperatives. More specifically, AIPs will be production parks bringing together different agricultural players (professionals, farmers, etc.) who farm variously-sized plots while pooling basic infrastructure (roads, water, energy, telecommunications, etc.), local services (finance, quality control laboratories, transport, maintenance, waste management, refrigerated storage facilities, etc.), agricultural knowledge and good practices (training, research, support, technology transfers), etc.

The Prime Minister with the Minister of Industry (left), Deputy Minister of Finance (right), Minister of Agriculture and General Manager of the Bukanga-Lonzo Agro-Industrial Park (facing).

“

80,000 HA Size of the BukangaLonzo AgroIndustrial Park”

“

The BukangaLonzo AIP is an agricultural production, processing, packaging and sales complex.” Ida Naserwa, General Manager, Bukanga-Lonzo AIP

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NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT PLAN Adopted by the Government in May 2013, DR Congo’s National Agricultural Investment Plan (NAIP) covers the period 2013-2020. It has four objectives:

AIPs will also have agro-industrial and logistical activity zones and structures with the aim of improving collaboration and synergy between all the players. They will help to integrate all the links in the value chain from top to bottom and offer investors and food companies a comprehensive range of services. Each park will foster a business-friendly environment including specialised consulting services, mentoring for entrepreneurs, support for innovation, services to consolidate and develop markets, access to secure financing and smart partnerships that spur local economic development depending on local and regional potential. In compliance with the President’s instructions, Congolese experts developed the AIP initiative under the Prime Minister’s leadership. The government funded the first stage of the BukangaLonzo pilot AIP.

the international market for sales. The Congolese State owns a majority stake in all those entities. South African partners contribute know-how, technology and training. Land in the park is set aside for small-scale manioc growers employed by the AIP. Local producers receive support, including technology transfers, and supply food products meeting the same international standards as those produced by the AIP. Bukanga-Lonzo did not come out of thin air. The site was chosen for its location, which allows products, eventually including poultry, cattle and sheep, to be easily shipped out. A thousand irrigated hectares will be put aside for the production of vegetables, expected to reach 500 tonnes a day! Nearly 50,000 hectares will be

strengthening the country’s food security; diversifying the population’s diet; developing agricultural and agro-industrial sectors so that they become the main drivers of economic growth and exports; and halving the poverty rate (63% in 2013). At a cost estimated at $5.73 billion over seven years, the NAIP is structured around five

The Bukanga-Lonzo Agro-industrial Park The Bukanga-Lonzo Agro-Industrial Park is a huge, approximately 80,000-hectare project. Land stretching out as far as the eye can see is expected to produce enough food to feed not just Congo, but also neighbouring countries in the sub-region. On 15 July 2014, the President officially launched the project, which already employs nearly 500 people even though less than half of its planned activities are up and running. At least 5,000 permanent jobs are expected to be created in the coming months. The huge project has three separate but complementary components, illustrating a public-private partnership that is bearing fruit. The Bukanga-Lonzo AIP is responsible for the site’s development, the Société d’Exploitation du PAI (the operating company) for production and

programmes: development of agricultural and agro-industrial zones ($3.65 billion); Harvesting maize in Bukanga-Lonzo.

devoted to growing maize. With a minimum yield of five tonnes per hectare, the Bukanga-Lonzo AIP will produce at least 250,000 tonnes of maize a year within three years. In addition to chicken, eggs, meats and fish, 1,000 ha will be devoted to the production of vegetables under irrigations. As General Manager Ida Naserwa points out, the Bukanga-Lonzo AIP is not a farm but an agroindustrial park, a veritable modern city where farm products are grown and processed. It is an intersection of services deployed and developed along the entire food value chain—in other words, an agricultural production, processing, packaging and sales complex.

agricultural product and food security management ($536.9 million); research and development and training ($738.3 million); governance and strengthening human and institutional capacity ($607.3 million); adaptation to climate change ($195.8 million).

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R EPU U BLIC C

OF CONGO CONGO

The transformer station in Bukanga-Lonzo.

Supplying the AIP with power is key to its success. Infrastructure has been developed to ensure a steady flow of 56 MW. Instead of a simple connection, the Bukanga-Lonzo AIP has a substation that transforms high-voltage into medium-voltage current. The Bukanga-Lonzo AIP also has a social dimension. It does not produce manioc, the main crop grown by local small-scale farmers. The AIP buys their output, ensuring their survival. Around 22 agro-industrial park sites have been identified nationwide, but they will be developed gradually. In 2016, the focus will be on sites in Kalemie (Tanganyika Province), Kindu (Maniema Province), Luiza (Central Kasai) and Nkundi (Central Kongo Province). The DRC offers many investment opportunities. It has tremendous potential, room to spare and is waiting for interested investors to mount projects based on win-win partnerships.

Land, Congo’s new source of wealth DEMOCRATIC C

R EPU U BLIC C

OF CONGO CONGO

After basing its economic growth on mining, Congo is going back to its roots. The government has decided to develop the country’s most valuable resource: land. Fertile, arable land accounts for nearly 80% of its 2,345,000 square kilometres.

Until now, agriculture has mainly consisted of subsistence farming. The government has opted for industrialisation to make it competitive. But small-scale growers are protected no matter what. At Bukanga-Lonzo for example, they provide manpower while taking advantage of support as well as of the South African partner’s technology transfers. So far, the government has funded Bukanga Lonzo, a trial balloon currently producing seven tonnes of maize per hectare. The project is successful. The DRC is expecting more investors to take part in developing the other identified sites. Producing and processing food products will enable not just the local population but also the whole country to be fed. Crossed by the Equator in its midsection, the DRC offers an appreciable diversity of climates. The seasons alternate between north and south, balancing the flow of waterways. The country’s many rivers make it easy to ship products. What’s more, the DRC shares its border with nine countries, an essential advantage for access to markets—nine potential outlets likely to make it a food hub in the heart of Africa. The development of agriculture will spur the growth of transport infrastructure and other activity sectors. As the sites become agro-industrial parks, the government hopes to attract investment to build roads and find ways to transport finished products. Congo’s officials set the goal of developing multimodal transport several years ago. With help from the African Development Bank, Congo is trying to attract young people to farming— a sector with a decidedly bright outlook.

THE PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE OF THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

5 avenue du roi Baudouin - Gombe-Kinshasa - Email:cabinet@prilmature.cd - http://www.primature.cd/public/

“

The development of agriculture will spur the growth of transport and power production infrastructure, considerably enhancing the Congolese people’s quality of life.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO | COUNTRY FOCUS

DEBATE

Is a national dialogue really necessary? Is President Kabila’s call for a new round of political discussions the way to peaceful elections, or a ruse to delay the electoral process? Politicians offer their views

Samy Badibanga

Henri Mova Sakanyi

President, Union pour la Démocratie et le Progrès Social (UDPS) parliamentary group

Secretary general, Parti du Peuple pour la Reconstruction et la Démocratie (PPRD)

Whyhaveyou refused to participateinthe dialogue the government has suggested? We want to participate in the dialogue but under certain conditions: the government first has to commit to upholding the constitution, especially regarding the length and the number of terms. We also want the appointment of an impartial mediator who will supervise the process.

Was it really necessary to convene a national dialogue? Dialogue is the only solution that can pave the way for peaceful and credible elections. […] Remember the first elections in our history? They led to the secession of Katanga and Kasaï, to the coup of September 1960, the assassination of [Patrice] Lumumba […]. The 1965 elections didn’t even take place because of a military coup. The 2006 presidential elections were accompanied by violence in Kinshasa, and there were also some deaths in 2011. For how long will we continue this infernal cycle?

So you’re not happy with the African Union (AU)’s appointment of Edem Kodjo as mediator? It’s not about the person but rather the method used. Why did the AU take this initiative instead of joining the ongoing process? The United Nations had already launched consultations to initiate a dialogue that [UDPS leader] Étienne Tshisekedi had agreed to take part in. Isitstillpossibletoorganisethepresidentialelectionswithin the constitutional framework – that is, before December? It’s up to the Commission Électorale Nationale Indépendente to decide, but in my humble opinion it’s no longer possible […]. Haven’t we parliamentarians voted budgets to the commission that ended up not being allocated? I think the government intentionally refused to organise the elections.

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Kabila was the country’s first democratically elected president. Can he also be the first Congolese president to transfer power peacefully? Why not? That’s how it shouldbe.Andthosewho want this to happen had better participate in the dialogue so that we can get things going now. This will complete the democratic process that Joseph Kabila started himself. ● M RTHOU DUBOU

THE AFRICA REPORT

Is it still possible to organise the presidential elections within the scheduled time frame? The inclusive dialogue is supposed torespondtothatquestion.Iwantto make clear that the dialogue is not intendedtochangetheconstitution.

GWENN

In December 2015, you and Félix Tshisekedi met with oppositionist Moïse Katumbi. Is the UDPS considering backing a single candidate? We agree with [Moïse Katumbi] on upholding the constitution and on changing governments in 2016. This is the battle that we first have to win. It’s too soon to talk about candidates. It can divide us, and we risk losing everything. Having said that, I believe the days of an individual leadership are gone, as the current situation calls for unity. ●

Can there be a dialogue if the UDPS, the main opposition party, refuses to participate in it? We would like all the key Congolese stakeholders, including Étienne Tshisekedi, to gather around the negotiating table. However, he is not our sole interlocutor and even if the dialogue is not met with unanimous approval, we are counting on the presence of many participants.

Interview by Pierre Boisselet and Trésor Kibangula This article first appeared in Jeune Afrique

COUNTRY FOCUS | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

THE EAST

Rebel stalemate An estimated 70 militia groups are active in eastern DRC, with a spate of clashes in recent months. As the tally of displaced people rises, UN and government forces seem unable to shift the balance of power

torm clouds are gathering menthe likely reason being that they have acingly once more in the Demobeen whisked off to military training cratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s camps, as has happened for years to troubled east, threatening to rain down young men from camps of Nord-Kivu more conflict and misery. Sources in Tutsi refugees in Rwanda. the United Nations (UN) mission in the The Congo Research Group, a think DRC say that combatants of the Rwandatank, reckons that at least 70 armed backed anti-government Mouvement groups are active in eastern DRC and that around 1.6 million people are disdu 23 mars (M23) militia are circulatplaced in Nord- and Sud-Kivu. There ing in the Nord-Kivu provincial caphas been a spate of clashes in recent ital of Goma but reckon they currently pose little threat. However, the governmonths in the north of Nord-Kivu near ment’s often tense relationship with the town of Lubero, where militias the UN could begin a drawn from Nande new phase this year, and Hutu communitAround ies have been attacking with spillover effects for conflict in the Kivus. villagers, resulting in M23 troops took confew casualties but sigmillion nificant displacement. trol of Goma in 2012, people have been The UN mission and but UN and Forces displaced in Nordcommunity leaders Armées de la Répuband Sud-Kivu say that politicians lique Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) solare manipulating the SOURCE: THE CONGO RESEARCH GROUP diers beat them back. At violence. present, say UN sources, there is no inThere has been continued violence dication that the Rwandan government too around Beni, to the north of Lubero, is interested in offering its support to a which the FARDC and, initially, UN fresh armed insurgency. forces have habitually blamed on the Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF), TRAINING CAMPS a militia reported to be fighting for an Instead, the Rwandan government apIslamic government in neighbouring pears far more concerned about develUganda. Research and analysis by the opments in Burundi, where the governUN Group of Experts, which the UN’s DRC mission now seems to agree with, ment accuses Kigali of giving succour suggests that the real reason for much to, and arming, an anti-government of the fighting around Beni is ethnic militia that aims to topple Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza. Rwanda’s factionalism within the FARDC, again mostly pitting Hutus against the Nande. President Paul Kagame has denied the The UN peacekeeping missionand the claims, but stories circulate nonetheFARDC are in theory conducting joint less in Rwanda of Burundian refugee operations against the ADF. In practice, camps where there are no young men,

1.6

JAMES AKENA/REUTERS

With the surrender of M23 in 2013, the vacuum has been filled by dozens of other armed groups

say insiders, they work “in parallel”. “They do their thing”, explains one UN source, “and we do ours.” In early February, the UN and the FARDC announced the resumption of joint operations against the pro-Hutu Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR). The FARDC suspended joint operations in 2014 in protest at UN complaints about the presence of two FARDC commanders previously implicated in serious human-rights abuses. NEW MISSION COMMANDER

The FDLR is a shadow of its former self. It counts fewer than 2,000 combatants, according to most estimates, but has nonetheless retained a fighting capacity. In late December, the UN mission appointed a new force commander, Lieutenant General Derrick Mbuyiselo Mgwebi, a South African. Two months earlier, Maman Sidikou of Niger was appointed the new political head of the UN mission. Sidikou took office in January but has so far kept a low profile, in marked contrast to his predecessor, the Twitter-obsessed Martin Kobler, who now heads up the UN’s Libya mission. Sidikou has been well received by both UN and government senior staff but he faces a new crisis, as Kinshasa requested in March that the number of blue helmets be cut in half to 10,000 by the end of the year. ● Gregory Mthembu-Salter in Goma and Gisenyi THE AFRICA REPORT

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Congo-Invest Consulting can facilitate the access to this market of over 70 million consumers, growing to reach 100 million by 2020. CIC can also help investors identify business line opportunities in such sector as agribusiness (coffee, cacao, sugar, rubber, palm oil…), energy, telecom or real estate. The company has a solid academic and business track record with companies like mining operators, Diplomatic Missions based in Kinshasa for which CIC develops studies and lead business missions. To name but few of its portfolio, in the retail sector, CIC also mobilizes multimillion dollars financial facilities to support SMEs for their development. For those who really mean business in the Democratic Republic of Congo, CongoInvest Consulting Dream Team has just succeeded translating the American “Yes we can” into “Yes Congo can”.

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Rwanda Focus Stepping out of the neighbours’ shadows

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COUNTRY FOCUS | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

PROFILE

Moïse Katumbi

Former governor, Katanga Province

A rabble rouser considers his chances The popular ruling party baron turned oppositionist could be a serious contender in elections scheduled for November. But to get that far, he will need to unite the opposition

ffable, urbane and a great rabble rouser while campaigning in his native province of Katanga, Moïse Katumbi is quiet and considered in private. Given his stewardship of the football club TP Mazembe, the defending CAF Champions League winners, he is asked what he thinks of suggestions that Arsène Wenger might leave at the end of a disappointing season for the London club Arsenal. “They would be crazy to let him go,” he tells The Africa Report. “Look at the club, look what he has built.” When it comes to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Joseph Kabila, his political arch-rival and erstwhile friend, Katumbi is less forgiving. In his resignation letter from Kabila’s ruling Parti du Peuple pour la Reconstruction et la Démocratie in September 2015, he rails against the regime for stalling over upcoming elections set for the end of this year, “with everything being done to avoid respecting the constitution.” He also points to the rising tide of violence against ordinary citizens and pro-democracy activists. Kabila’s response was crude: he parked his tanks on Katumbi’s

home territory. The Congolese army has moved several military vehicles, including tanks, into positions around Lubumbashi, Katumbi’s base. The former governor has told journalists that his kids have been followed back from school by security agents, but that he is not intimidated. In December 2014, upon his return from a medical trip to London, he was mobbed by a huge crowd of supporters, many of whom assumed he had survived an attempted poisoning. WHEELING AND DEALING

Lubumbashi is the basis of Katumbi’s reputation, for better or for worse. Better run than other Congolese cities, it houses some of the country’s biggest mining companies. “When I arrived at the head of the government in Katanga, the province was in ruins,” says Katumbi, who focused on critical mining infrastructure like roads. “In the rainy season, it took two months to get an articulated lorry from the Zambian border to Kolwezi. Now it takes five hours.” Katumbi’s fortune was made selling services to miners. His Mining Company Katanga (MCK) has gone through various permutations and helps transport the

SWITCHING SIDES 28 December 1964 Born in Kashobwe 1997 Became chairman of the TP Mazembe football team 2006 Elected governor of Katanga Province September 2015 Stepped down as governor and quit the ruling party

ore from rich cobalt and copper mines out of the country. French logistics company Necotrans bought MCK from him for an undisclosed sum in November 2015. This overlap of his public and private personas – Belgian filmmaker Thierry Michel calls Katumbi “a blend of Chavez and Berlusconi” – comes with its weaknesses. Various Wikileaks cables as well as the Congolese financial regulator raised questions about his management of provincial finances as well as the opacity of his business dealings. And a report by the Carter Centre on pollution in Lubumbashi’s poorer districts caused by the Indian company Chemaf suggests the administration did not leap forward to protect the citizenry. Katumbi has always claimed probity, which has not stopped the THE AFRICA REPORT

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COUNTRY FOCUS

ment has not yet come,” he added, for talk about candidates. Others point out that Katumbi had said the same thing 24 hours earlier. The G7 grouping is not the force that it was in September 2015, when it first split from the ruling party, taking 100 or so members of parliament with it out of a total of 500 Congolese MPs. Following harassment and inducements from the regime, only 40 MPs remain. They maintain heavyweight ground organisations, however, especially the Mouvement Social pour le Renouveau of ex-Kabila security adviser Pierre Lumbi.

FEDERICO SCOPPA/AFP

WHO WILL RUN?

rumour mill from cycling through the usual run of hearsay, much of which centres on the many years in which Kabila and Katumbi worked together closely. But beyond personal issues, Katumbi’s path to the presidency is complicated by other potential opposition candidates. If he plans to run and win, he would have to, for example, win over the eternal oppositionist Etienne Tshisekedi, whose masses of supporters in the Kasaï provinces and Kinshasa are a real vote bank. Katumbi recognises this, and he recently spent two hours meeting with the ageing Tshisekedi in Brussels. On 30 March, a group of Congolese political parties – known as the G7 and composed of previous Kabila allies – said it wants Katumbi as its presidential candidate. This signals the beginTHE AFRICA REPORT

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ning of the campaign for the November polls, which may yet see the fractured opposition unite around a single man. The former governor refused to accept the G7 endorsement for fear of angering Tshisekedi and the other main Kabila opponent,

Belgian filmmaker Thierry Michel calls Katumbi ‘a blend of Chavez and Berlusconi’ Vital Kamerhe. Kamerhe, who orchestrated Kabila’s successful 2006 election campaign but then, like Katumbi, fell out with the president, did not appear to take the G7 pronouncement lightly. “These questions of personnel will divide us, which will only help the ruling party,” said Kamerhe on French television. “The mo-

Nevertheless, the extent to which the opposition is able to fall behind one candidate is critical to any attempt to dislodge a Kabila clan seemingly set on holding on to power. Optimists point to splinters within that clan, the ambitions of Antoine Gizenga’s Parti Lumumbiste Unifié and other fights for control in the ruling coalition. Katumbi says that he is not willing to countenance the prospect of Kabila delaying the choice of successor this year. One of his lieutenants told Jeune Afrique magazine that the G7 was right to press ahead: “They have to be ready for November, that way they won’t be taken by surprise if the regime tries to hold snap elections.” If he were to win the elections, Katumbi would be the first president without a military background since Mobutu Sese Seko deposed the country’s firstpresident,Joseph Kasa-Vubu, in 1965. Katumbi’s credo on foreign relations in a tense neighbourhood is to follow the lessons of the post-Second World War period. “Europe had understood this well”, explains Katumbi. “In our Great Lakes region, where there are lots of conflicts and wars, there is nearly no cross-border trade. Security needs jobs. We built these jobs along our Angola and Zambia borders even though we had so much violence here in the past.” ● Interview by Nicholas Norbrook in Abidjan

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A KEY PLAYER IN THE CONGOLESE ECONOMY The establishment of the LEON HASSON & FRERE Group in 1936 marked the beginning of a family’s success story, with at its heart, two visionary brothers, Léon and Acher Hasson.Their shrewd ability to grasp the opportunities offered by the country enabled them to build an extensive distribution network: initially through retail shops, not least the famous Kinshasa-based ‘Au Chic’, and then with their first wholesale distribution centre as early as in 1952. Quickly they found success by linking the needs of the population with a wide range of items. Its presence spread in the country, with outlets in Kinshasa , Kananga, Kisangani, Lubumbashi, Matadi, Boma, Goma and Bukavu, in addition to a ‘floating-shop’ along the Congo River to meet the needs of the isolated local population. The brothers followed their success by moving towards industrial activities: first of all to the textile industry with manufacturing plants Linda, Sofatex, Elre and Novatex (draps, tergal, shirts, uniforms and socks); then to electric batteries with the American company Ray-O-Vac’s Electric Storage Battery Company (ESB Inc.). After, in the 1980’s, they started activities in the agri-food industry: food products, (maize, paddy, coffee, rubber, papain, etc...).Their entrepreneurial spirit has contributed to the rise and development of the Congolese economy. Even in times of war, the Hasson Group held a steady course. In 2016, Léon Hasson & Frère became HASSON AFRICA and they maintain their values to their employees: confidence, passion for work and the willingness to learn. Its leaders give opportunities to local staff to train and employ more than hundreds of workers.The HASSON AFRICA Group purchases quality goods across 4 continents, with the aim to offer selected brands that suit the taste of the local people.

THE MOST RECOGNIZED FAMILY BUSINESS IN DRC Respected both locally and internationally, HASSON AFRICA is a dynamic group that has always had faith in Congo’s future. Much to the discontent of colonial authorities, it was founded in 1947 to provide local and European clients diverse products, earning them the respect and friendship

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REAL ESTATE AND PROPERTY EXPERTISE The import, distribution and marketing activities of HASSON AFRICA is closely linked to the Group’s real estate department.The Group owns two real estate companies (Linda and Build up) managed by the same leaders whose expertise have helped to put together a remarkable portfolio. Several real estate acquisitions in the capital and in the provinces have added an important value to the Group’s assets.

A TOTAL MASTERY OF SOURCING PROCESS, IMPORT, DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETING The Group controls the entire production chain which helps to safeguard supplies and have a better control of customer relations.

DIVERSITY AND HIGH QUALITY GLOBAL BRANDS HASSON AFRICA offers a wide variety of unparalleled products which attracts and retains an increasing number of customers. Their range has 25 000 items. With a long presence in the Congolese market, its know-how is recognised and a flawless grasp of Congolese reality enables the Group to count high-profile international brands among its partners: BEIERDORF (ex : Nivea), KRAFT, Henkel, DIAGEO (Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, etc..), PERNOD RICARD (ex : Chivas), UNILEVER France, KIMBERLEYCLARK, PUMA and FERRERO.

The Group provides the best visibility to brand names which have already selected HASSON AFRICA to be their ‘commercial bridge-head’ in the heart of the secondlargest country in Africa. The total commercial floor space available in Kinshasa makes HASSON AFRICA the sector’s biggest player. It meets massmarket needs, as well as those of the middle class and the upper class. Espace Hasson Central Station is the jewel of Hasson Africa network: it is the first and the most popular commercial center of Kinshasa offering on two floors the biggest variety of services and items in the heart of Africa. Covering 24,000 m2, the Plaza Village offers a wide range of activities, services and leisure in Kinshasa. These include a hypermarket, shops, banks, restaurants, leisure centre for children, petrol station and a secured car-park. The third and the newly born shopping centre of Hasson Africa is KCC (Kitambo Commercial Center) with 2,500 m² of multidimensional space including restaurants and stylish bars.

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REGIONAL INTEGRATION

Trade starts African countries can boost growth by cutting tariffs and removing “soft” barriers to trade, while still supporting their industries without completely protecting them By Nicholas Norbrook in Abidjan

magine you are a Malaysian truck driver. In the back of your truck is a big cargo of stinking durian fruit. The Singaporean border heaves into view. What will happen? Will you pull over and fill out some paperwork? Wait around to get the documents stamped – hours spent in the sun – with your precious durian rotting in the back? Of course not. You whip out your smartphone and send your prefilled cargo passage form. It is immediately routed through the relevant ministries in Singapore. The authorities e-stamp the form and send it back to your smartphone. Beep. Job done. No need to stop. You don’t even need to slow down.

Welcome to Singapore. The benefits of frictionless trading with neighbours seem clear. The farmer buys more inputs with the money saved on transporters, and the consumer gets fruit cheaper, allowing him to spend more on other items and boost the economy. The trucker also has more time to carry other loads. Africa is not quite there yet, and border crossings often involve waiting. Of Africa’s total trade, just 11% of it is done within Africa, compared to 50% intraregional trade in developing Asia and 70% in Europe. The world economy is going through a period of slower growth, just as tens of millions of young THE AFRICA REPORT

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Trucks wait at to cross the border into Zambia at Kasumbalesa in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Africans are entering the job market, so finding new markets in Africa is critical. African Development Bank (AfDB) president Akinwumi Adesina tells The Africa Report that, given the volatility of commodity prices, the continent needs to stop focusing its economic activity on the export of raw materials to foreign markets. “Africa needs to realise that its future lies within the continent,” says Adesina. “The opportunities are here – growing population, rising consumer spending – but we can only start to reap the benefits when we start to integrate our economies.” What can improve regional integration? It is partly about the THE AFRICA REPORT

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11%

The share of Africa’s trade among neighbours is much lower than in developing Asia (50%)

physical infrastructure of trade – investing in intraregional infrastructure, connecting power grids, laying fibre and building roads and bridges across borders. Average transport costs in Africa are now double the world average, according to the United Nations. TEAR DOWN THOSE WALLS

Adesina says that inclusive growth is dependent on bringing down the barriers to Africa’s 15 landlocked countries. “I have just come back from Chad,” he says. “They need infrastructure. They need a rail link to Nigeria. We need to invest heavily in connecting the landlocked countries to the coast.” Some of this is happening, par-

GWENN DUBOURTHOUMIEU FOR JA

at home ticularly in East Africa. Electrical interconnections in the region are expandingatafastpaceasEthiopia ramps up its power exports. New roads linking Addis Ababa and Nairobi have also helped to increase trade flows. Improving intra-African trade, however, is also partly about “soft” infrastructure. On the border, that means getting rid of the endless stamps on documents and the bureaucracythatmakecustomsofficials rich and goods expensive. In economic jargon, these are known as non-tariff barriers to trade. Dealing with this low-hanging fruit can galvanise regional commerce, according to a former governor of Katanga Province in the

BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

another African country faces an average tariff of 8.7%, compared to just 2.5% abroad, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development. ‘SMART PROTECTIONISM’

STUART PRICE/MEAACT PHOTO

Democratic Republic of Congo, Moïse Katumbi. He waived the $50 entry visa, for example, and overhauled border crossing points. “We went from $18m in customs receipts a year to $1.2bn” says Katumbi. “And it’s not just connecting countries with roads that helps [...] but also inside the country. It used to take months to get a truck from a mine to the border of Zambia in my province; now it takes five days.” ‘SOFT’ BARRIERS

TradeMark East Afr ica, a donor-funded trade-facilitation organisation, has done a similar job for Mombasa port. “We got the private logistics players, the freight forwarders, the trucking associations, then all the government players – the port authority, customs, police and so forth – and brought them all together to discuss port issues,” says Abhishek Sharma, director of trade logistics at TradeMark East Africa. “And each of these associations or authorities signed clear pledges on improvement, and each of those pledges had a timeline which is monitored. The entire pledge is called the Mombasa Port Charter.” The results are there. Since the deal was signed in 2014, the clearance time for cargo destined for Kigali has declined from 21 days

to four days. The clearance time for cargo from Dar es Salaam to Kigali has also dropped from 25 days to five. Over the same time period, the cost of clearing a container has dropped from nearly $5,000 to $3,387, according to the organisation. Cartels can also add to trade costs, as illegal monopoly-style business agreements between freight operators keep transport prices high. Lowering barriers to entry for new logistics operators should help, says Sharma. One of those barriers is market information. Another challenge is training new staff. It is easy for big companies like Bolloré to do in-house programmes but much harder for a company with just two trucks. “We are also supporting some infrastructure logistics so that these smaller companies can access third-party warehousing infrastructure so that they can provide the end-to-end solutions that only these bigger companies can currently afford to provide,” says Sharma. Africa still replicates colonial trade patterns — and it’s not just because of the heritage of infrastructure, with railways snaking from mineral deposit to coast. Improving trade between African countriesisalsopartlyabout tariffs. An African firm selling goods to

Mombasa Port, where the public and private sector have worked together to cut clearance times

8.7% Average intra-African tariffs are higher than the international average of 2.5% SOURCE: UNCTAD

There are a multiplicity of new free trade agreements that have been proposed in recent months – for example the Africa Free Trade Zone that links regional economic communities in the south, east and north. It would cover some 26 countries with a combined gross domestic product of $624bn. There are already various regional economic communities, such as the East African Community, the Economic Community of West African States and the Southern African Development Community, which have worked hard to harmonise their tariffs. But there is reasoned resistance to throwing open economies and an age-old tension between building up a strong domestic economy andallowingcompaniesfromother countriesintothemarket. Thistension is magnified when countries are still growing their industrial bases, as is the case with many African countries. The British, to their shame, solved the problem withviolenceduringtheirdevelopmental years by sending gunboats to open markets while maintaining high tariffs on imports. There is no wonder why others are wary. Beijing’s officials, for example, were privately horrified at what happened when Russia’s markets were flung open in the 1990s and resolved to sequence their own opening up more artfully. The Chinese government sometimes opens up sectors to bring in capital and technology, and sometimes it will protect them to build up local capacity. The Singaporeans may well be at the top of the World Bank’s Doing Business rankings, but a top Singaporean official tells The Africa Report that the government could intervene in business if it was required. If faced by a hostile takeover of a Singapore company deemed critical, he says, “then we willstepin.” Thegovernmentcould useTemasek,astate-ownedinvest-

THE AFRICA REPORT

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COMPANIES & MARKETS | BUSINESS

Tunisia Morocco

Algeria

Cabo Verde

Mauritania

Libya

Niger

Burkina Faso Guinea Benin Sierra Côte Ghana Togo Leone d’Ivoire Liberia

GuineaBissau

AMU (African Maghreb Union)

Population*: 53.2 million Regional trade**: 3% Regional GDP**: 340.8 billion dollars

Nigeria Cameroon

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Central African Republic

Republic of the Congo

SOURCE: UNCTAD, IMF, JA

21%

Rwanda Burundi

Latin America

Malawi

50%

Mozambique

Zimbabwe

Madagascar

Botswana Swaziland

Population: 625 million Regional trade**: 10.4% Regional GDP **: 1.0 trillion dollars

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Kenya

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Namibia

COMESA-EAC-SADC (Triparite Free Trade Area)

•

Africa

Angola

Population*: 46.6 million Regional trade: 3% Regional GDP: 81.7 billion dollars (2011)

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11%

Uganda

Zambia

ECCAS (Economic Community of Central African States)

•

Somalia

Comoros

Population*: 325 million Regional trade**: 9.4% Regional GDP**: 311.7 billion dollars

THE AFRICA REPORT

Ethiopia

South Sudan

Tanzania

ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States)

ment fund, if necessary, to protect those interests. France and the United States regularly invoke national security as a reason to block company takeovers, while South Africa and the United Kingdom have recently applied emergency tariffs to protect their steel industries from cheap Chinese imports. Morocco’s finance minister, Mohamed Boussaïd, says that you cannot protect weak industries forever: “In the long term, protectionism will incentivise laziness.” He adds: “You can have strategic sectors, sure, but they can’t be divorced from global realities.” He relates how Morocco’s textile industry was badly battered by a string of free-trade agreements and liberalisation. With help and intervention, the sector was able to reinvent itself and invest in technology. The head of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, Carlos Lopes, advocates this kind of “smart protectionism” – where

Eritrea

Sudan

Chad

Djibouti

São Tomé e Príncipe

Four economic zones

Trading with the neighbours (percentage of exports within regions)

Mali

Senegal

Gambia

Egypt

government industrial policy is meant to mediate rather than displace market forces. “The instruments available today are not the same as when Southeast Asia industrialised, so countries have to be very careful and they have to be pragmatic,” Lopes explains. CREATING VALUE CHAINS

To get beyond these arguments about the openness of economies and kick-start meaningful regional integration, perhaps African leaders should look at building regional value chains. Asia, for example, captures a significant proportion of the value chain of an iPhone, with parts sourced from Indonesia and Taiwan that go to China for assembly. Apple has 349 suppliers in China, 139 suppliers in Japan and 42 suppliers in Taiwan. While Africa may not be able to reach these heights today, there are significant value chains to be developed in the agriculture sector that are certainly in its reach –

South Africa

Lesotho

Asia

70% Europe

*2013 **2007-11

for example addressing Nigeria’s $6.5bn annual food-import bill. This is already happening, suggests the AfDB’s Adesina, pointing to a deal that will see Morocco’s national phosphate company OCP linking up with Nigerian natural gas providers and the Dangote Group to build factories to produce fertiliser. “The future billionaires of Africa will come from Africa,” insists Adesina. And Jean-Louis Billon, Côte d’Ivoire’s commerce minister and a former agribusiness entrepreneur, points to palm-oil value chains and also some less wellknown examples, such as for kola nut. “It is produced in the south of our country,” he says, “but is consumed across all of the Sahel, gets sold into logistics and sales networks, and creates a livelihood for many.” These are the sorts of projects needed to bolster Africa’s industrialisation and link neighbours into virtuous cycles of trade and investment. ●

DOSSIER INSURANCE

OLIVIER CULMANN TENDANCE FLOUE

Insurance doesn’t cover breakdowns THE AFRICA REPORT

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Cars flood the

More cars on Morocco’s roads mean more accidents. People are rushing to get their cars insured and companies are offering new types of insurance. The kingdom has the continent’s second-largest carinsurance market, after South Africa’s.

kingdom

By Celeste Hicks in Casablanca

orning rush hour on a rainy day in Casablanca can be tough. There has been an explosion in the number of vehicles on the road in the past few years, thanks to the wide availability of cheap, domestically produced brands like Dacia. At the end of March, car sales had increased by 17.5% over the previous year. This is opening a new boulevard of opportunity for insurers. Bumps and prangs among drivers are a daily occurrence. The development of Morocco’s car insurance industry in recent years has provided some new forms of protection for motorists, or at least their vehicles. Offers from leading companies Saham, Sanad and Wafa promise drivers that as soon as they have an accident, they can go to an approved garage and walk out with a compensation cheque in their hand within three hours. Other premium services send assessors out on motorbikes to the scene of the accident where their training can help to mediate conflicts between the parties. THE AFRICA REPORT

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They can also take the correct standard of photograph and assist motorists in filling out the constat amiable, or accident report, that the insurance companies require. “The speed with which people can get their claims settled has really helped to convince them that car insurance is in their interest,” says Koudama Zeroual, a spokesperson for Wafa Assurance. Currently 86% of all Moroccan car insurance is basic third-party cover, according to Wafa, which is a legal requirement for all drivers. But Zeroual says there is now a clear movement towards more advanced products, with over 20% of Wafa’sbusinesscoveringadvanced packages: “Middle-class drivers are becoming more interested in cover for things like theft, hospital bills and fire damage.” A THIRD OF THE MARKET

The Moroccan insurance market is growing. Four main companies – Wafa, Saham, RMA Watanya and French-owned Axa – control 77% of the market, which was estimated at about Dh30.4bn ($3.2bn) at the end of 2015,

41 % Almost half of the nonlife insurance market in Kenya is for car insurance SOURCE: KPMG

according to the Fédération Marocaine des Sociétés d’Assurances et de Réassurance (FMSAR). Car insurance is one of the most popular products, making up about a third of that figure, around Dh9.5bn, and Wafa says that small claims for cosmetic damage to vehicles make up about 75% of claims recorded. The insurance market has followed where Moroccan banks have led, with insurance companies competing for “proximity” – local branches of the main companies can be seen on street corners across the country, and products are now for sale on company websites and over the phone. “The market has been transformed over the past 20 years” says Abdelkerim Sahbeddine, a director of the FMSAR. “Previously, drivers didn’t bother to make claims because it was an administrative nightmare and took months to get payments authorised; but now they can settle things with one phone call.” The industry’s rosy self-image is not always shared by motorists. Although the basic products are very competitive because the price is regulated by the government, there is a premium on the ● ● ●

DOSSIER | INSURANCE

South Africa: Insurers brace for the deflating rand South Africa’s car-insurance market – which is the largest in Africa and makes up nearly half of the country’s short-term insurance industry — is poised to take a hit from the country’s weakened rand, as rising import costs hit insurers. Car insurers spend most of their money on replacement parts for damaged vehicles, most of which are imported. In the past six years, about 70% of South Africa’s car-insurance claims have been accident-related and 70% of costs relate to car parts, according to the South African Insurance Association (SAIA). “One of the major problems we’re facing at the moment is the weakness of the rand and the exchange rate [against the dollar],” Nico Esterhuizen, the general manager of insurance risks at the SAIA, tells The Africa Report. “That is going to cause some havoc.” South Africa’s rand has been hit by political instability resulting from a scandal over government spending on upgrades to President Jacob Zuma’s private residence. In addition, Zuma’s sudden dismissal of the finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, in December hurt investor confidence. ● Mark Anderson

● ● ● “fast claims” and other supplementary cover options that are out of reach for many drivers. “I have a basic package for my cars, which was easy to arrange,” says Ahmed Bouchara, a tourist transport operator with a small fleet of cars. “But when I last made a claim, it took me several months to get the payment, which was really frustrating. It discourages me from doing it because I can’t plan my expenditure.” This time lag may be one of the reasons why drivers are often reluctant to report the small collisions that happen in rush-hour traffic. What’s more, the police do not attend minor road traffic accidents. And for those who have paid for premium services, holding on to a no-claims bonus is important. Although the FMSAR launched a regulatory body this year, disputes often occur when the accident report has not been correctly filled in or when drivers have fallen behind with payments.

servicedotheyprovide?Theydon’t always do what they say they will.” In a move to improve the products on offer, the industry has developed a nationwide database of individual driver’s claims, which is being used to offer tailored products such as noclaims bonuses and cheaper rates for more experienced drivers. The real competition now exists in these products. “We’re moralising the risk,” says FMSAR’s Sahbeddine. “If you’re a good driver, we reward you for that; if you’re bad, we penalise you.” In this way, Morocco is following strategies that have already been adopted in markets like Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. Despite the teething problems, Morocco’s insurance market is

still significant, second only to South Africa on the continent. Moroccan insurance companies are keen to replicate the success of the country’s main banks in expanding into the sub-Saharan market. Wafa already has a growing presence in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, and FMSAR was involved in a recent major reform of Tunisia’s car-insurance sector. Wafa’s Zeroual explains his company’s vision: “We’re not interested in buying up existing African insurance companies but rather partnering to share experience to help develop new products and to open new branches in the Francophone West Africa market.” Following the playbook of Moroccan economic diplomacy, a number of international forums have been held recently, such as Preventica in Casablanca in March and the Rendez-Vous de Casablanca de l’Assurance in April, at which the FMSAR signed a partnership with the Association des Sociétés d’Assurances de Côte d’Ivoire to help them to develop products such as noclaims bonuses. “When we told our counterparts in Côte d’Ivoire that we can process an entire damage claim in one hour, they thought we were joking,” says Sahbeddine. “Many African countries are still using old systems and we think we can offer them expertise which will revolutionise their industries.” ●

STAKING CLAIMS

According to one independent insurance broker who sought anonymity, more needs to be done to make good on promises the companies have made to assist their clients. “The products on offer are great in principle, and the market has become very competitive in recent years,” she says. “But when I make my choices, I have to know who is serious. Will companies honour their guarantees to help outclients?Whatkindof after-sales

In Morocco claims can be processed within an hour. THE AFRICA REPORT

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ABDELHAK SENNA/AFP

INSURANCE | DOSSIER

INTERVIEW

Paddy Partridge Regional manager for Africa, BIMA

Mobile money will be the way to buy insurance

TAR: What is the potential for mobile insurance in Africa? PADDY PARTRIDGE: Insurance penetration is still incredibly small in most African countries. I think there is a huge opportunity for growth, and that’s why funds like Leapfrog – one of our investors – are able to raise so much money to invest in insurance in Africa. Going forward, I think mobile money will become the preferred payment channel for a lot of operators. Airtime makes perfect sense now, when a lot of customers with a mobile phone have airtime. But I think as you see mobile money mature and people become more accustomed to using it, that will gradually become the preferred payment channel. From a mobile network operator perspective, it’s more attractive to them. There’s no risk of cannibalisation of mobile money through buying airtime. From the central banks’ perspectives in a lot of these markets, they’d prefer to see mobile money being used versus airtime. It’s going to be quite a long transition, but if we look 10-15 years ahead, mobile insurance will primarily be paid by mobile money. Do you see mobile insurance as a way of boosting financial inclusion in Africa? More than 90% of our customers in sub-Saharan Africa haven’t had an insurance product before, THE AFRICA REPORT

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and there hasn’t really been a viable business model outside of micro-insurance. We launched in Ghana five years ago, and we now account for more than 10% of the life insurance policies in the country. These customers never would have been able to have a life insurance product without the mobile element of this. Is pay-as-you-go insurance the future of insurance in Africa? Inmarketswheremobilemoney is very developed, like Tanzania, we’re looking at a model where customers pay upfront using mobile money for, say, two, six or 12 months and then we contact them

We’re looking at a model where customers pay upfront for two, six or 12 months to renew again. I think that’s definitely a very attractive model from a commercial perspective, but also from a customer’s perspective. They don’t have to worry about a lapse in their coverage. Having said that, the best way of targeting the mass market is through this pay-as-you-go model where you canbreakdownthepremiumsinto really small, affordable amounts. Then our customers don’t really feel the cost of the premium, but they know that every month they have life insurance.

BIMA uses mobile platforms to bring insurance to those who have never had it before. It is implanted in Ghana, Senegal and Tanzania and has more than 20 million customers worldwide The challenge is finding the payment channels that enable very small amounts to be deducted in a cost-effective way. Airtime is one of them. But otherwise, to do it from a bank account or something like that, it’s not so effective. On mobile money, a lot of operators don’t want to have deductions from a subscription-type model coming from a mobile wallet. Who do you see as your main competitors? Our biggest competitor is definitely MicroEnsure, who are also partnering with mobile operators. Their model is quite different to ours. Ours is very distribution-led and includes financial education. MicroEnsure’s model is to go very big on the ATL [above the line] marketing and encourage customers to sign up. Their product is primarily free – like a loyalty product for the mobile network operator – whereas ours is entirely paid for by the customer. We have different models, but if we’re going to an operator to discuss a partnership MicroEnsure is often the competitor that the operator mentions. In terms of customer volumes, globally they’re the only company that’s really that close to us. We’re startingtoseetraditionalinsurance players going into the micro space andalsoformingpartnershipswith mobile operators. ● Interview by Mark Anderson

DOSSIER | INSURANCE

ANALYSIS

‘Green fields’ of insurance growth Africa’s insurance markets are expanding more slowly than other emerging regions’, but major groups are looking to enter new markets, which could speed things along

fricaninsurersarestillwaiting for rising incomes to transform their bottom lines. The growth of insurance premiums in sub-Saharan Africa slowed to 4.2% last year, as lower globalcommoditiespricesdragged it down from 5% in 2014, according to reinsurance company Swiss Re. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have the weakest growth in its non-life insurance premiums of all regions in the emerging markets, with 3% growth over the next two years. This is slower than the trend for emerging markets, which are projectedtopostnon-lifepremium growth of 7.9% this year and 8.7% next year, Swiss Re says. The value of South Africa’s insurance market continues to be significantly higher than other markets on the continent, with an estimated $51.6bn worth of insurance premiums in 2013 (see map). This dwarves Morocco’s industry, Africa’s next-most valuable, which was worth $3.2bn, and Africa’s third-mostvaluable,Egypt’s,which was worth $1.9bn. While other areas of the continent are drawing

interest from insurers, it will be a longtimebeforeothermarketsmature to the level of South Africa’s. The slowdown in commodities prices could mean African insurers have to wait even longer for markets to grow, but there are bright spots. With surging middle-class populations, Nigeria and Kenya’s markets are likely to grow in the coming years. Nigeria’s market is underdeveloped, with a value lower than 0.5% of its overall gross

‘There are still enormous opportunities if you’re there at the right time’ domestic product, according to research from Business Monitor International. (Swiss Re put it at 3%.) That potential for growth is not lost on South African financial services groups, which are looking for expansion opportunities. “The majorgroupsinAfricaareseriously entering North Africa and East Africa,” says Dawie Buys, manager of risk at the South African Insurance Association. “They actually

Markets on the move The volume of insurance premiums in sub-Saharan Africa has been steadily rising since the turn of the century, growing from just more than $2bn in 2000 to a forecast of more than $16bn this year. Non-life insurance makes up the bulk of the premiums, with about $11bn worth of coverage. Insurance growth in sub-Saharan Africa

300

% real growth (line graph) Non-life Non-life Life

Mark Anderson

250

Life

200 150

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

100

Number of mobile money platforms by global region Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia SOURCE: GSMA

22 $bn (bar graph) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2002 2004

call Kenya and Nigeria ‘the green fields’ and they have bought companies [there]. There’s a lot of capital available through these bigger groups, and there’s an appetite [to expand],” Buys adds. With a struggling economy at home, it is no wonder South African financial institutions are looking to the rest of the continent for profits. South Africa’s market, which comprises about 90% of sub-Saharan Africa’s life and health insurance premiums, is likely to post moderate growth this year because of its economic woes, according to Swiss Re. Accelerating growth could be down to improving mobile distribution and micro-insurance. Moroccan insurers like Saham and Wafa Assurance and their South African peers Old Mutual, Standard Bank Africa and Liberty have begun to show interest in expanding into new Africa markets. “There are still enormous opportunities if you’re there at the right time. I think these stories are still being written,” concludes Buys. ●

Micro is the means Smartphones have been a boon to some Africa-focused insurers. Their growing affordability has helped boost the rise in mobile money platforms. In 2014, there were more than 250 mobile money platforms around the world, the likes of M-Pesa, Zaad and M-Birr in sub-Saharan Africa making up more than half of them.

SOURCE: SWISS RE

50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 THE AFRICA REPORT

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0.8

1.9

22.3 0.7

TUNISIA

MOROCCO

84.7 271.4

77.3 1.8

10.9 47.0

3.2

96.8 3.1

32.9 103.8

INSURANCE | DOSSIER

40.1 0.7

37.9

208.8

169.3 521.4

EGYPT

1.5

2.8

NIGERIA

6.0

47.4 0.9

570.3

KENYA

23.7 124.2

1.1

Africa’s top 10 insurance markets

1.5

36.4

9.7 0.3

1.6

41.8 55.2

ALGERIA

Insurance premiums ($bn)

1.3 11.9

437.2 7.2

ANGOLA

Population (millions)

1.0

Density (premiums per capita, $)

2.2 13.1

GDP ($bn)

51.6

NAMIBIA

Population (millions)

GDP ($bn)

Density (premiums per capita, $)

Penetration (premiums as % of GDP)

Top ten total

64.9

457.9

1,723.4

141.7

3.7

Other countries

4.9

628.7

652.0

7.9

0.8

Total

69.9

1,086.4

2,375.6

64.4

2.9

Africa Excluding South Africa

18.3

1,033.3

2,009.3

17.7

0.9

Health on hold The growth of life and health premiums in sub-Saharan Africa has been slowing since 2013, when these forms of insurance grew by about 6%. Growth in this sector is expected to continue at the current pace of 3%. In comparison, emerging Asia is expected to post 13% growth over the same period.

SOUTH AFRICA

Protecting property Non-life premiums — like homeowner and automobile cover — are projected to grow fastest in emerging Asia, where these products have hovered around 13% growth every year since 2013. Non-life policies in Sub-Saharan Africa are growing around 5%. In the Middle East and North Africa, they are growing slightly above 5% per year.

Life & health real premium growth

Non-life real premium growth by region

15% 2015E 2016F 2017F E: estimate F: forecast

2013

Emerging Asia

Middle East and North Africa

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SubSaharan Africa

Advanced markets

2014

10%

2015E 2016F 2017F E: estimate F: forecast

SOURCE: SWISS RE

2014

SOURCE: SWISS RE

2013

SOURCE: SWISS RE

53.2

Insurance premiums ($bn)

366.2

970.8 14.1

Penetration (premiums as % of GDP)

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

0.7 MAURITIUS

0% -5% Emerging Asia

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America

Central and Eastern Europe

SubSaharan Africa

Advanced markets

DAY IN THE LIFE

THE FATOU BLOG

EXTRAORDINARY STORIES OF ORDINARY PEOPLE

OLIVIA ACLAND FOR TAR

Fight not flight When Ebola hit Sierra Leone, activist Fatou Wurie stood her ground, creating a space for women to overcome their challenges in the aftermath of the virus

was born in Bo, Sierra Leone, where I was raised by my grandmother, but when I was about three my dad got an international job and we moved to Zambia. Afterwards, we lived all around the world. At 18 I graduated from the International School of Islamabad in Pakistan and then went to Canada for university. Everywhere I went I wasn’t enough. In North Africa I was too black, and not Muslim enough; in Asia I was too black, too fat. In North America I was dealing with race and religion. It was always being the foreigner that made me want to embrace being Sierra Leonean. After I graduated I got up one day and thought: “I can’t be sitting here talking about the African experience and African discourse without really having discovered my roots.” So for the first time in over 20-something years, in 2011, May 10, my birthday, I landed in Sierra Leone. There is a divide between Sierra Leoneans who stayed during the war and those who weren’t there: “You did not see this, you did not feel fear. Now you’re coming here with your accent and your access and you wanna tell us how to live?” There was no way, when Ebola hit Sierra Leone, that I’d pack my bags and go and sit somewhere. So I stayed. I was there in the fight playing my part. Ebola is a poverty-driven disease that disproportionately affects women, who are nurses, who are community leaders, who are mothers; it affects them and I just felt like we didn’t do enough for our women. The healthcare system crumbled. Antenatal visits went down, delivery

MAMAYE AFRICA

at health facilities went down, access to sexual reproductive services went down. Women and girls were getting pregnant and dying. So that’s where the Survivor Dream Project [SDP] started, I wanted women to know that they weren’t alone. We provide a safe space for the women to discuss sexual reproductive rights and domestic violence. We have ‘eating right’ programmes and wellbeing inspiration classes. We also do skill-set training where they learn to take their businesses to the next level, as many of them are petty traders. [The women’s] stories will be used for a policy paper on how Ebola affected women’s lives. As a country we are moving on, but I think we are forgetting a little too quickly. When Sierra Leone first met its 42 days, there was a huge celebration. While everyone who wasn’t directly impacted by Ebola was out there dancing and making speeches, my women were crying. Some of them left, they were like: ‘You can stand there and dance and celebrate and talk about Ebola ending, it hasn’t ended for us.’ Salamatu is 16 years old, she lost her mother, her father and her four siblings, the world can move on but she can’t. There’s a lot of trauma in the world, but how you channel that into something that creates positive social change is what I’m interested in. My art – writing and spoken word – and my work are not separate, they are a complete expression of who I am, where I’ve been and what I want to see. ● Interview by Billie McTernan THE AFRICA REPORT

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