Tar92 by The Africa Report

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma: Behind the smile

• Nigeria A season of all the dangers • Kenya Fight of a lifetime • Google The next billion are African

N ° 9 2 • J U LY- A U G U S T 2 017

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Diaspora dynamo JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Belgium €5.90 • Canada CA$ 7.95 • DR Congo US$ 9 • Denmark 60 DK • DOM 8 € • Ethiopia 90 Birr • France €5.90 Germany €5.90 • Ghana GH¢ 10 • Italy €5.90 • Kenya KES 410 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands €5.90 • Nigeria 800 NGN • Norway NK 70 Portugal €5.90 • Rwanda RWF 6,000 • Sierra Leone LE 15,000 • South Africa R40 (tax incl.) • Spain €5.90 • Sweden SEK 70 Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania TZS 10,000 • Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda UGX 10,000 • UK £4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 48 ZMW Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 F CFA • Euro Zone €5.90

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Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma: Behind the smile

• Nigeria A season of all the dangers • Kenya Fight of a lifetime • Google The next billion are African

N ° 9 2 • J U LY- A U G U S T 2 0 17

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THE AFRICA REPORT # 92 - JULY-AUGUST 2017

Diaspora dynamo INTERNATIONAL EDITION

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

BUSINESS

06 EDITORIAL Africa’s Marshall Plan for the West

60 GOOGLE The next billion The American tech giant is using training programmes to reel in new African internauts

08 LETTERS 10 THE QUESTION

BRIEFING 12 SIGNPOSTS 14 PEOPLE

16 INTERNATIONAL 18 CALENDAR 20 OPINION Cheta Nwanze, head of research, SBM Intelligence, Nigeria

70 LEADERS NanaAma BotchwayDowuona, Founder, N. Dowuona & Company, Ghana

73 HANNIBAL

22 DIASPORA A dynamic force for good The Africa Report takes a look at the diaspora population around the globe and how they are changing the continent’s narrative from abroad

LOGISTICS DOSSIER 74 Transnet in a tangle Allegations of corruption surface as the state-run company targets a continental expansion

78 INTERVIEW Romain Py, Investment director, African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM)

POLITICS 30 KENYA The fight of a lifetime Raila’s last chance, and the threat of election violence ahead of the August polls

80 EAST AFRICA Ports in a storm

36 PROFILE Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, former chair, African Union Commission COVER CREDITS: CAMILLE CHAUVIN FOR TAR; ROGAN WARD/REUTERS

66 OIL AND GAS Senegal’s black bonanza

72 FINANCE There’s gold in that dirt

FRONTLINE

40 NIGERIA A season of all the dangers 42 ANANSI Are Europe’s voters growing up?

COUNTRY FOCUS 45 CAMEROON Bamenda blues After years of neglect and marginalisation by the country’s francophone majority, the English-speaking enclaves are pushing back THE AFRICA REPORT

64 TELECOMS The curious fall of Etisalat Nigeria

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ART & LIFE 82 CULTURE Has Egypt lost its capital? The once entertainment centre of the Arab world attempts a comeback 86 ART Nigeria makes its Venice Biennale debut appearance 88 LIFESTYLE Ghanaian designer Akosua Afriyie-Kumi 89 TRAVEL Madagascan islands by catamaran 90 DAY IN THE LIFE Zanzibar hotel operations manager Mohamad Ali Mohamad

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THE AFRICA REPORT A Jeune Afrique Media Group publication

BY PATRICK SMITH

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Africa’s Marshall Plan for the West

CHA I R M A N A ND F O UND E R BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED P UB L I S HE R DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com

n a time of hyper-nationalism, the wall-builders might see it as churlish to throw a few facts and figures into the argument – but here goes anyway. Our Frontline feature on the growing power of Africa’s diaspora gets to the nub of the continent’s economic and cultural exchange with the West. Let’s start with the quantifiable: financial flows. Africa’s central banks hold more than $600bn of their foreign reserves in Western economies. Similarly, African pension funds hold more than $700bn and invest most of it in Western capital markets. There are the illicit flows too, tracked by a panel of the UN’s Economic Commission for Africa. Its latest report reckons that Africa is losing more than $80bn per year from deliberate trade mispricing, corporate tax evasion and a potpourri of financial-service rackets. Most of that cash ends up in Western banks. And the inflows? Enter Africa’s diaspora to the tune of more than $60bn a year in remittances through official channels. Unofficial transfers add at least another $60bn. Altogether, remittances were over twice foreign aid levels. Remittances transfer money for school and medical fees, building houses and starting up enterprises. Yet London’s Overseas Development Institute has identified a “super tax” on those remittances. People paid an average of 12.3% to send $200 to an African country, compared with a global average of 7.8%. Sparse competition and high commissions are part of the problem, but African-owned transfer companies, such as WorldRemit, are now cutting costs. Education and health services in the West are increasingly

E X E CUT I VE P UB L I S HE R JÉRÔME MILLAN

recruiting African professionals. Britain’s Institute of Public Policy and Research found that Uganda spent more than $2bn on training doctors who then went to the West. Kenya’s Calestous Juma, professor of international development at Harvard University, argues for the value of cultural and intellectual exchange over worries about a brain drain. Ghana takes a pragmatic view: “We see education as an export industry,” a presidential adviser says. “We are rapidly expanding the trainAfrica’s ing of health workers knowing there is high diaspora demand for them in can offer Europe, but also to imthe world prove local services.” Africans have now a master surpassed their Asian class counterparts in Britain and the US as the most in juggling educated migrant identities group (the highest percentage of postgraduates). Some educational psychologists say a stronger family work ethic helps. After Tiger Moms, Lion Mums and Dads? As the data on Africa’s diaspora explains its contribution to both host countries and the mother continent, there are some philosophical questions. Just as the overseas Chinese helped kickstart the Middle Kingdom’s spectacular growth, Africa’s diaspora is playing a similar role. Amin Maalouf, author of the elegiac Leo Africanus, speaks compellingly of the importance of mutual respect as we juggle our multiple identities – personal, religious, ethnic and national. In that regard, Africa’s diaspora can offer the world a master class.

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M A R K E T I NG & D E VE L O P M E NT ALISON KINGSLEY‑HALL E D I T O R I N CHI E F PATRICK SMITH M A NA G I NG E D I T O R NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com A S S O CI AT E E D I T O R MARSHALL VAN VALEN B US I NE S S E D I T O R MARK ANDERSON E D I T O R I A L A S S I S TA NT OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI R E G I O NA L E D I T O R S CRYSTAL ORDERSON (SOUTHERN AFRICA) BILLIE ADWOA MCTERNAN (GHANA) S UB - E D I T O R S ALISON CULLIFORD ERIN CONROY P R O O F R E A D I NG KATHLEEN GRAY A RT DI R E CT O R MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER) SYDONIE GHAYEB VALENTIN EVERARD CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) R E S E A R CH SYLVIE FOURNIER P HO T O G R A P HY PIERANGÉLIQUE SCHOULER SALES SANDRA DROUET Tel: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – Fax: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 sales@theafricareport.com CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 4 College Road Business Park College Road North Aston Clinton HP22 5EZ United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk ExpressMag 8275 Avenue Marco Polo Montréal, QC H1E 7K1, Canada T : +1 514 355 3333 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 ‑ $60 ‑ £35 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com A D VE RT I S I NG D I F CO M INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57‑BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS ‑ FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19‑60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com PRINTER: SIEP 77 ‑ FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0720 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950‑4810 THE AFRICA REPORT is published by GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

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MAKE GENDER DIVERSITY A TOP CEO PRIORITY

Nairobi: The race to control Africa’s bridge to Asia

• Nigeria The cereal entrepreneurs • Rwanda An opposition stands up • South Africa Is the DA doing good in PE?

w w w.t h e a f r i c a r e p o r t .co m

N ° 9 1 • J U N E 2 017

s we celebrate the African women who have made it to the top, we should also take a moment to consider what we can do as businesses to close the gender gap faster [‘Star dealmakers’, TAR91 June 2017]. In our 2016 ‘Women Matter Africa’ report, we provide concrete Star actions that organisations can take. There’s one 50 women shaking up business dimension in particular where African organisations are falling behind: ‘Make gender diversity a top CEO priority’. Today, only 31% of African companies see gender diversity as a top CEO priority, which stands in stark contrast to North America, for example, where it’s 75% of companies. Research shows that when the CEO is a chief advocate for change, the broader workforce is more inclined to follow. So to bring about change, we need to see our African CEOs (who, for the record, are 95% male) stand up and be counted. Tania Holt, Partner, McKinsey & Company Clockwise from left: Ibukun Awosika, Rita Zniber, Tabitha Karanja, Maria Ramos

dealmakers

the question may be which world view is better for moving Africa forward: glass half full or glass half empty?

Chukwumerije Okereke, Co-author of Homegrown Development in Africa

SINGAPORE-AFRICA: FIRST COME FIRST SERVED

Africa still is an underexplored market for most Singaporean companies [‘Stronger ties, biscuit by biscuit’, TAR90 May 2017]. While Global FDI in the African continent increased by 41% between 2007 and 2015, Singapore’s share of foreign investment in Africa dropped from 10.3% to 3.4% in the same period. Misconceptions and lack of knowledge prevent more Singaporean companies venturing into Africa. Only growing cooperation of poverty and unemployment, between governments and constant investment in infrastructure, education, mutual exposure can change that. The first-comers are already collecting sovereign debt, dependence on raw the gains of their investments: materials, and, crucially, the quality of governance, all remain unacceptable companies such as Indorama, Olam, for the vast majority of the ordinary PIL, Wilmar, Tolaram, CrimsonLogic, people. Moreover, much of Africa’s Surbana Jurong, Vega Foods, Aluzinc and Hyflux. They are live examples development path continues to be of the opportunities awaiting in Africa. shaped, not by Africans themselves, Otavio Veras, Research Associate, but by politicians and technocrats in state NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies capitals in the West. Philosophically, INTERNATIONAL EDITION

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

OPTIMISTS AND PESSIMISTS DEBATE AFRICA’S GROWTH Your article ‘Is Africa’s development an illusion’ [TAR90 May 2017] provides a succinct summary of the two contrasting assessments of the state of Africa’s economy by some of the people who have been influential in shaping its development trajectory. On the one hand, optimists like Donald Kaberuka, former AfDB president, suggest that Africa has never had it so good. And on the other are the pessimists who only see misery and a bleak future. As in most cases, the truth is somewhere in the middle. While much of Africa is today doing better in terms of macroeconomic growth, the levels

Correction In our list of 50 women business leaders published in TAR91 [June 2017], we erroneously implied that Delphine Traoré Maïdou no longer works for Allianz Africa. The article should have made clear that Maïdou, who stepped down as CEO of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) Africa on 1 February, remains a non-executive member of the board of management of AGCS Africa. We apologise for this mistake.

HOW TO GET YOUR COPY OF THE AFRICA REPORT

On sale at your usual outlet. If you experience problems obtaining your copy, please contact your local distributor, as shown below. ETHIOPIA: SHAMA PLC, Aisha Mohammed, +251 11 554 5290, aisham@shamaethiopia.com – GHANA: TM HUDU ENTERPRISE, T. M. Hudu, +233 (0)209 007 620, +233 (0)247 584 290, tmhuduenterprise@gmail.com – KENYA: LASTING SOLUTIONS LIMITED, Anthony Origi, +254 723 320 108, a.origi@yahoo.com – NIGERIA: NEWSSTAND AGENCIES LTD, Marketing manager, +234 (0) 909 6461 000, newsstand2008@gmail.com; MAGAZINE CIRCULATION NIGERIA LIMITED (MCNL), Distribution manager, +234 (0)803 727 5590/805 357 0984, mcnl3@yahoo.com – SIERRA LEONE: RAI GERB ENTERPRISES, Mohammad Gerber, +232 (0)336 72 469, raigerbenterprise@gmail. com – SOUTHERN AFRICA: SALES AND SUBSCRIPTIONS: ALLIED PUBLISHING, Butch Courtney; +27 083 27 23 441, berncourtney@gmail.com – TANZANIA: MWANANCHI COMMUNICATIONS, Milli Makula, +255 716 500 500, mmakula@tz.nationmedia.com – UGANDA: MONITOR PUBLICATIONS LTD, Micheal Kazinda, +256 (0)702 178 198, mkazinda@ug.nationmedia.com – UNITED KINGDOM: COMAG, Mark Swan, +44 (0)1895 433791, Mark.Swan@comag.co.uk – UNITED STATES & CANADA: LMPI, Sylvain Fournier, +1 514 355 5610, lmpi@lmpi.com – ZAMBIA: BOOKWORLD LTD, Shivani Patel, +260 (0)211 230 606, bookworld@realtime.zm – ZIMBABWE: PRINT MEDIA For other regions go to www.theafricareport.com DISTRIBUTION, Ian Munn, +263 778 075 147, ianmunn@mweb.co.zw

ADVERTISERS’ INDEX JAGUAR LAND ROVER p 2; LIQUID TELECOM p 4-5; STANDARD BANK p 7; MAZAGAN BEACH RESORT p 9; LIEBHERR p 11; BOAD p 17; OCP p 19; TAR MONTS NIMBA p 35; CAIF 2017 p 43; DSTV MEDIA p 44; STE D’AMENAGEMENT DE DOUALA p 49; OLAM p 51; SAWA HOTEL p 53; BENCH AHIF 2017 p 55; CCA 41th WTC p 55; BIOPHARMA p 58-59; ABAX CORP. SERV. p 67; JAGUAR EDITIONS p 69; AFRICA OIL WEEK p 77; INTERPOL p 77; CHANNELS TV p 79; KANU EQUIPMENT p 81; CNN p 91; MAROC TELECOM p 92 THE AFRICA REPORT

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A report by The Initiative for Equal Rights reveals an increasingly positive portrayal of LGBT people in media and culture in West Africa, but across the sub-region, activists continue to feel the full force of anti-gay laws.

Is homophobia in West Africa becoming a thing of the past?

Yes DELE M. FATUNLA Director, Research & Knowledge Manage ment, The Initiative for Equal Rights (TIER), Nigeria

Prior to the colonial encounter, West African societies had a variety of attitudes to same-sex conduct but none of these included criminalisation, or discrimination. Homophobic attitudes were introduced and have been cultivated by a culture of ignorance. Increasing evidence shows that sexual diversity is a normal part of human existence. Recently, the Academy of Science of South Africa published a study emphatically clarifying that sexual orientation is not a choice, and that homophobia harms African societies. It would be disingenuous to say that homophobia is on its way out immediately, but in the face of greater awareness and education many people have become more enlightened. Recently, TIER ran a poll which showed that in Nigeria 39% of people accept that homosexuals should have equal access to public services like healthcare, housing and education – up 9% from 2015; it is likely this shift comes with greater social awareness of homosexuals, and the knowledge that they do not pose a threat to society, nor do people willingly choose a sexual orientation that puts them at risk of stigma and discrimination. Africans, when faced with the overwhelming social and scientific evidence that homophobia, not homosexuals, is a threat to our societies, are increasingly turning to positions of tolerance and acceptance.

•

No MICHEAL O. IGHODARO Assistant Professor, Global LGBTI Studies, The New School University, New York, US

No, it’s not and never has! Even in countries where they enjoy gay marriage and civil unions, homophobia is still very real and alive. Not to talk of West Africa where we have laws that stigmatise LGBTI communities. I have a problem with the view that homophobia is a thing of the past – how can it be? When just last week [on 1 June] a journalist was kidnapped in Nigeria for an article about homosexuality in the country. When the government is still enacting laws that seek to punish people who do not conform to the norm of heterosexuality. It is dangerous to assume that the visibility of the LGBTI community in Africa has resulted in the reduction or eradication of homophobia on the continent. A lot of Africans still believe that “the gay agenda by the West” is taking over African society – which is completely bizarre! There is no gay agenda! If there is any agenda at all, it is just that we want to live in a country or continent where everyone respects each other. I think this idea of homophobia being a thing of the past can be related to one of the lies people in Africa try to tell themselves, that homosexuality is un-African. I mean what is even African? Anyone who thinks homophobia is a thing of the past in Africa should just google ‘latest attacks on LGBTI community in West Africa’ and you will see almost daily news of attacks on the community.

•

Not really! By signing the Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Act into law, Nigeria not only publicly opened the debate into its mainstream media but also gave their courts of law mandate to try proponents and/or actors involved in advancing the social erosion of human rights with regard to same-sex marriage. Oduor P. Ojwang Not even remotely so. Those who feel this way are living in urban isolated bubbles. Homophobia is rife and anti-gay violence persists in West Africa. @Ekow_bk Your question completely ignores the fairly recent anti-gay legislation in Nigeria and the Pew Global Polls that indicate homophobia in West Africa. @abena_serwaa We will never accept homosexual acts, get over it. @YoungAfricanist Though there are laws to protect the human rights of all persons, LGBT people in Ghana sometimes do not enjoy the freedoms and justice the laws promote. The prevalence of homophobia has increased in recent times. Homophobic statements by state officials and religious groups mainly incite violence and attacks against LGBT people. Abubakar S. Yussif

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Experience the Progress.

www.liebherr.com info.lex@liebherr.com www.facebook.com/LiebherrConstruction

SOUTH AFRICA Durbanites take part in Gay Pride, celebrated around the world on 24 June. South Africa is the African leader in LBGTI rights, but still suffers hate crimes, especially towards women.

7.8%

50%

Pinnacle Towers, set to be Africa’s highest building.

ETHIOPIA Archeologists have unearthed an

ancient Islamic trading city under the town of Harlaa; beads and Chinese pottery are among the finds.

SOUTHERN AFRICA

In conjunction with GeoPoll, The Africa Report asked 102 Zimbabweans: Should the government reintroduce the Zimbabwe dollar? Yes

KENYA Work begins on

Liberators no more

he legacy of the strong men leading liberation parties in Southern Africa is being tested by President Robert Mugabe’s succession quandaries and President Jacob Zuma’s struggles to balance personal and national priorities. As hopes dim of Harare erasing its debts to international creditors, the succession is sucking more and more air out of Zimbabwe’s political sphere. In June, First Lady Grace Mugabe was fighting a war of words with the war veterans and military brass, who favour deputy president Emmerson Mnangagwa and have warned of political instability. Meanwhile, leaked emails about the Gupta family’s ties and the sacking,

I don’t know

42.1% No

GeoPoll is the world’s largest mobile surveying platform and sample provider in Africa, enabling companies and organisations to gather quick, accurate and in-depth insights. To conduct your own mobile survey using GeoPoll’s easy-to-use platform visit Research.GeoPoll.com

reappointing and sacking of Eskom chief executive Brief Molefe show that Zuma and those close to him are losing the public perceptions battle in South Africa. The fight for Zuma’s succession, too (see page 36), is eating into the brief time left for him to turn a page on his controversy-filled legacy and stop the slide in the ANC’s popularity. And while Zambia is no longer run by the liberation-era single party, President Edgar Lungu is experimenting in the strong man’s dark arts. Opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema remains in jail on treason charges and the national assembly has imposed a 30-day ban on MPs who boycotted Lungu’s state of the nation address.

Sit-tight presidents unite: Jacob Zuma and Robert Mugabe GCIS

By 2050, Nigeria’s economic capital, Lagos, is set to have a population of more than 36 million, up from 18 million in 2015. That would make it the world’s fourth-largest city and the continent’s largest megalopolis. The population growth poses a major challenge for Lagos’s city planners.

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

POPULATION LAGOS IS MEGA

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BRIEFING 13

MALI Friends, parents and relatives pay homage to

victims of the 18 June terrorist attack at Le Campement Kangaba resort, close to Bamako, in which eight died.

SENEGAL As Ramadan

SOUTH SUDAN South Sudanese models walk the catwalk

ends Muslims gather for Eid al-Fitr prayers in Dakar.

during the Nile Couture Fashion Show in Juba, where life goes on despite a refugee crisis, civil unrest, drought and famine

ELECTRICITY PRIVATE PLAYERS STILL SHY

CASH TRANSFERS NIGERIA FOLLOWS BRAZIL’S EXAMPLE

More independent power projects are being developed on the continent, but in most cases they represent only a small percentage of national production. Governments will need to attract more private investors to meet their production deficits. Total installed Ghana capacity (GW) Nigeria Senegal 3.8 GW IPPs‘ share 4.9 GW Uganda 18% 0.9 GW of capacity (%) 31% 32% 0.9 GW Rwanda 49%

0.2 GW

National electriﬁcation rate

34%

< 20% 20-40% 41-60% 61-80% > 81%

Cabo Verde

0.1 GW 20%

Taking its cue from Brazil’s successes in fighting poverty through cash transfers, the Nigerian government is running a pilot programme that seeks to hand out $2bn to about 1 million people in eight states. The transfers are dependent on immunising children and sending them to school.

Kenya

Gambia

2.2 GW

0.1 GW

25%

OIL FALLING FINANCES

0.2 GW

1.9 GW

49%

52%

Tanzania

1.6 GW 19%

Cameroon

1.3 GW

Mauritius

0.8 GW

24%

39%

Namibia

0.6 GW 2%

Madagascar

0.5 GW 10%

South Africa

50.2 GW

Mozambique

11%

2.7 GW 10%

Zimbabwe

Zambia

2.6 GW 15%

Swaziland

0.2 GW 23%

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2.1 GW 6%

Major African oil producers such as Libya, Nigeria, Angola and Algeria will continue to feel the pain. Prices are still falling despite production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries Price $58

WTI Brent

$56 $54 $52 $50 $48 $46

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Togo

Côte d’Ivoire

SOURCE: IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2006, PROPARCO/PRIVATE SECTOR & DEVELOPMENT, 2017

43%

44.89

$44

42.63

$42 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun 2017

A MENTOR’S PATH 1990s Active in local ANC/ UDF branches 2002 Observer on the ANC’s national executive committee ALEXANDER ESA/THE TIMES/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

2004 Head of the ANC caucus in parliament 2008 Head of parliament’s public enterprise committee 2016 Denounced the Gupta brothers for offering her a ministerial post on condition of preferential treatment

SPOTLIGHT

Vytjie Mentor The ANC veteran has taken aim at corruption within the party and is ringing alarm bells about its ability to remain the dominant force in South African politics SOMETHING SNAPPED inside Vytjie Mentor in March 2016, and it opened the floodgates on a controversy that has turned the politics of South Africa on its head. Alarm bells had been ringing for several years about the crony capitalism and nepotism that has been eating into the governing African National Congress (ANC), but Mentor was the first top ANC politician to name names. She spelled it out as plainly as she could: the relationship between the Gupta

family and President Jacob Zuma was an economic and security threat. In a posting on social media, Mentor recounted how the Gupta brothers invited her to their family home: “They asked me to become minister for public enterprises when Barbara Hogan got the chop, provided I would drop the South African Airways (SAA) flight route to India and give it to them.” Mentor’s account prompted some critical questions. With what authority were

the Guptas picking ministers, a power that was meant to be the prerogative of the executive? Who thought it was a good idea for their appointees to take business from state-owned enterprises to give to private companies owned by friends of the president? Zuma’s ties to the Guptas were investigated by then public protector Thuli Madonsela and are likely to be probed by a judicial commission. They are at the centre of accusations that Zuma has presided over state capture by corporate interests. In the fog of politics surrounding what has come to be known as ‘Guptagate’, Mentor’s role was brave and prescient, all the more so because she is an ANC stalwart. With the country’s politics in ferment as several other ANC politicians summon the courage to speak out, and the release of

“We have to do things differently and make more effort so that the coming seven years give us a form of transition”

“Where we are right now, our movement is not in a good place. Our country is not in a good place ”

Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame again hinted that he may retire at the end of his next term if he wins the election planned for August.

South Africa’s deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa is campaigning for the presidency by saying he can fix the ANC’s problems. THE AFRICA REPORT

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BRIEFING 15

SIPA

LOLA OMOLOLA

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JEFF RADEBE The minister in the presidency hit trouble in May when it was revealed that he was sexting with a photographer who worked for the president’s office. He apologised, but earned the criticism of ANC colleagues.

WIZKID At the Billboard Music Awards in May, the Nigerian star beat the likes of Rihanna and Bruno Mars to win the prize for best R&B song for ‘One Dance’, his collaboration with Kyla and Canadian rap phenom Drake.

Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe confesses to feeling “used” by Chinese mining companies. •

The seemingly untouchable Tunisian businessman, a member of the old elite, was arrested in May after challenging the government to try him. He now faces a trial in a military tribunal for threatening state security.

Also in June, the founder of the ‘Female in Nigeria’ Facebook group met CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who praised her work in building a network of more than a million members for Nigerian women to share their experiences.

“They made me walk around, waving dummy cheques, yet they never fulfilled the promise they gave ” THE AFRICA REPORT

CHAFIK JARRAYA

Crystal Orderson in Cape Town

JOSEPH ARERUYA In June, the cyclist became the first Rwandan to win a stage in a European competition. He took stage five of the under-23 category of the Giro d’Italia. The 21-year-old’s ambition is to compete in the Tour de France.

more than 2,000 confidential emails pointing to further corporate influence, Mentor has been vindicated. But most of all, she says she is saddened by the damage to South Africa: “We are a shell of a country. We have 25-30% of what we used to have. And every day things are being taken out of the country in so many different forms.” It was people’s lack of awareness that unsettles Mentor: “What has been shocking me was not the rot necessarily, but it was the obliviousness of South Africans at what was happening.” This is partly explained by political subterfuge, she says, with Zuma’s acolytes pushing appealing slogans such as ‘radical economic transformation’. “There has never been an intention to radically transform the economy,” Mentor says. In 2008, Mentor was made chair of the parliamentary committee on public enterprises, where she says she saw mismanagement and fraud destroying SAA and Eskom. However, in 2010 journalists and politicians lambasted her for accepting an all-expenses-paid trip to China financed by Transnet, a parastatal. Mentor insists it would be simplistic to try to blame one man for South Africa’s troubles. “I’ve not singled out the President. Yes, that one individual caused a lot of damage, but he was enabled.” That damage extends to the party itself, she says. She points to its declining membership, and this informs her forecast for the next elections: “All I know is in 2019, the ANC is not going to be the governing party, irrespective of which candidate runs.” As for her, “There are still a few clean people in the ANC […] I don’t know that when my membership expires whether I’ll renew it.”

LAWY AURA In May, the Kenyan electoral commission removed its head of procurement due to repeated delays in organising the delivery of ballot papers for the August vote. Past election violence puts the commission under pressure.

GREECE

€8.5bn

In June, Greece’s European partners delivered the latest tranche of an $86bn debt rescue plan. Observers say this ‘extend and pretend’ policy is not a serious long-term strategy and that Greece’s financial troubles will continue until a new solution is found.

QATAR

Brazil, having lost one president to impeachment, couldn’t lose another so soon, could it? Having unseated Dilma Rousseff, current president Michel Temer now finds his perch unsteady. First, recordings which appear to show him turning a blind eye to massive corruption were released to the Supreme Court in June by two brothers in the meat-packing business. Now the police claim to have fresh tapes. While Temer has fired the justice minister, he may find it increasingly hard to ignore the huge street protests pushing for his departure.

ARK WILSON/SIPA

Princes of power: Qatar’s Emir Tamim (L) and Saudi heir Mohammed bin Salman (R)

The sheer temerity of corruption

IRAQ

Prospect of Kurdish freedom raises hackles The oil-rich and semi-autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan is set to hold an independence referendum on 25 September. The Kurds will be asked a single question: Do you want an independent Kurdistan? But regional powers Iraq, Turkey and Iran, as well as the EU, would say no if they were able to vote. The Kurds, however, have some arguments of their own – including the fact that Kurdish Peshmerga fighters were instrumental in the recent ousting of Islamic State rebels from Mosul.

PRENSA INTERNACIONAL/ZU

PARTHA SARKAR/XINHUA-REA

Getting that icy feeling

Qatar and Saudi Arabia are not firm friends. Qatar supported Islamist powers in Libya, Egypt and Syria, criticises the internal affairs of Saudi Arabia, and allows the Muslim Brothers to congregate in the Qatari capital, Doha. In 1995, Qatar almost walked out of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional grouping of Gulf States. Now the GCC has walked out on Qatar, mostly because its members do not like Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani, who has been throwing geopolitical muscle around after a decade of top-dollar gas prices. He has nominally handed over to his son, the 33-year old Emir Tamim. That could just be an internal matter for the region. But a new face on the scene,thenewheirtothethroneinSaudi Arabia, the 31-year-old Mohammed bin Salman, may spell problems. Some see him as the moderniser Saudi Arabia needs to shake up the national oil company and make good the Kingdom’s attempt to diversify away from energy. But his critics say he is impulsive. He is also the architect of the Gulf’s recentdiplomaticandeconomic isolation of Qatar and a hardline opponent of Iran, a Qatar ally. Expect a rocky road ahead, as these thirty-somethings go head to head.

BRAZIL

RUSSIA

“[Former FBI director James Comey] is […] a human rights defender. And if he faces pressure, then we are happy to offer him political asylum, too” President Vladimir Pu utin relishes his role in the current c US political controversiies linked to Russian hacking.

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Valéry Giscard d’Estaing interchange funded by BOAD.

West African Development Bank (BOAD), a key player in infrastructure financing in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) 1

BREAKDOWN OF BOAD COMMITMENTS BY SECTOR

Others

Food security

16.4

12.8

% ADVERTORIAL

70.8

Infrastructure

In support of a feasibility study undertaken for the hospitality industry, BOAD has also funded several projects in the tourism industry. Among them are the construction, expansion and renovation of hotels in the Azalaï Hotels Group and the Radisson BLU Hotel 2 Février in Togo. BOAD goes a step further to provide assistance to its clients throughout the entire funding process. In addition to this, BOAD also participates actively in the setting up of investment-driven community programmes in the UEMOA, focusing mainly on the energy sector and road infrastructure. With direct lending, funding arrangement and financial advice, the Bank offers a wide range of products appropriate to client and partner funding needs. It also provides tailored assistance to meet each client’s specific needs.

ABOUT THE BOAD Established in 1973, the West African Development Bank is a joint bank serving eight member countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). Its principal tasks are to promote the integration and balanced development of its member states in the West Africa region. Deeply involved in development issues, the Bank works in partnership with other regional institutions to achieve regional integration and it endeavours to strengthen the synergy of actions between itself and these institutions. In 2015, the international agencies Moody’s and Fitch assigned BOAD the issuer ratings of Baa1 and BBB respectively, with a stable outlook. The two agencies affirmed their ratings in 2016, enabling the institution to leverage resources from international capital markets in order to make its funding more and more competitive. 1 Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine

BOAD

B.P. 1172 - Lomé, Togo - Tel: +228 22 21 59 06/ +228 22 21 42 44 - Fax: +228 22 21 52 67/ 22 21 52 67/ 22 21 72 69 Email: boadsiege@boad.org - Website:

www.boad.org

DIFCOM/DF - Photo : DR.

In sectors such as road, port and air transport, energy, telecommunications and tourism, the West African Development Bank (BOAD) works alongside public and private players in the UEMOA to provide a sustainable source of funding for investments in modern infrastructure. Armed with over 40 years of technical and financial expertise, BOAD has placed infrastructure development at the heart of its mission. The Bank remains the main funding partner in this sector for member countries. In Côte d’Ivoire, it has funded major integration projects such as the expansion of the Azito and CIPREL power plants, the construction of the Henri Konan Bedie Bridge and the Giscard d’Estaing interchange, as well as the extension of the Félix Houphouët Boigny Airport in Abidjan. The bank has also funded the construction of the Tobene Power Plant in Senegal, and the expansion of autonomous ports in various cities including Abidjan, Bissau, Cotonou, Dakar, San Pedro and Lomé.

AFRICAN WORLD FESTIVAL 18-20 August

JULY

ZANZIBAR INTERNATIONAL FILM FESTIVAL 8-16 July

DETROIT | US Outdoor festival in the grounds of The Wright Museum with culture, music and food from the continent. thewright.org/african-worldfestival

ZANZIBAR | TANZANIA This year the 20-year-old festival will present a new award for Best African Female Documentary Filmmaker. ziff.or.tz

WEST AFRICA COM 11-12 July DAKAR | SENEGAL Francophone and anglophone stakeholders gather to discuss the region’s digital and ICT economy. westafrica.comworldseries.com

GSMA MOBILE 360 SERIES – AFRICA 11-13 July DAR ES SALAAM | TANZANIA How mobile access and inclusion can be elevated across sub-Saharan Africa. mobile360series.com

EDUWEEK 12-13 July JOHANNESBURG | SOUTH AFRICA The two-day education conference expects over 5,000 key decision makers from more than 45 countries. educationweek.co.za

INNOVATION PRIZE FOR AFRICA 17-18 July ACCRA | GHANA Digitising African languages, democratising technology, facilitating diagnosis… 10 nominees with homegrown ideas for Africa’s prosperity. innovationprizeforafrica.org

Annointed successor: João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço

ALL RIGHRTS RESERVED

FIBA WOMEN’S AFROBASKET 18-27 August

ANGOLA GENERAL ELECTIONS 23 August This year’s vote is set to mark a new chapter in Angola’s democracy as President José Eduardo dos Santos hands over power to a new leader after nearly four decades of iron-fisted rule. Dos Santos announced in February his decision not to run. The 74-year ruler will, however, retain control of the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) party, which has chosen defence minister João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço as its presidential candidate. Despite being largely seen as a candidate of continuity, the choice of Lourenço surprised many Angolans who expected Dos Santos to hand over to one of his children.

NELSON MANDELA DAY 18 July GLOBAL Creating momentum for positive change, carrying on Madiba’s legacy. mandeladay.com

POWER-GEN AFRICA & DISTRIBUTECH 18-20 July JOHANNESBURG | SOUTH AFRICA powergenafrica.com

AUGUST

RWANDA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 4 August President Paul Kagame runs for a third term in office.

KENYA GENERAL ELECTION 8 August Same faces, new coalition as TNA’s Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA’s Raila Odinga go head to head for the presidency for the last time.

BAMAKO | MALI The continental biennial championship will determine the six African teams who will qualify for the International Basketball Federation (FIBA)’s Women’s Basketball World Cup 2018 in Spain. fiba.com

AFRICAN LEADERSHIP FORUM 24-25 August JOHANNESBURG | SOUTH AFRICA Organised by the Uongozi Institute, the forum lets Africans set the agenda and addresses the gaps left by the current global conferences. uongozi.or.tz

WORLD TOURISM CONFERENCE 28-31 August KIGALI | RWANDA Organised by the Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) in collaboration with the Africa Travel Association (ATA). africatravelassociation.org SEPTEMBER

AFRICAN GREEN REVOLUTION FORUM 4-8 September ABIDJAN | CÔTE D’IVOIRE agrf.org

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Cheta Nwanze

Head of research, SBM Intelligence, Nigeria*

2019 Nigeria – history of a struggle foretold

here is plenty of noise in Nigeria: clashes between communities in the Middle Belt; Delta militants slow to shoulder arms in the South; and Islamists fighting the military in the north-east. Naturally, attention focuses on Nigeria’s ethnic and religious fault lines. But another clash looms that could throw shade over all these battles: a generational political clash. One, older, ruling class is leaving the stage; another, ‘middle-aged’ one is taking the reins; and a younger generation is disputing that power as the presidential elections of 2019 hover into view. The generation of young Nigerians under 40 is slowly coming to terms with the nuanced nature of the country’s politics, with fewer ethnic and regional filters. Generations can create powerful waves that drive change across countries. The US generation born in the 20 years following World War II, known as the Baby Boomers, have been a defining force in the 20th and 21st centuries. Coming of age in the 1960s and 1970s, they were on the forefront of social change, including the later stages of the civil rights movement, protests against the Vietnam war, and the second wave of the feminist movement. To the ‘first generation’ of post-independence politicians in Nigeria, the sudden and violent emergence of a military-led political class in 1966 was a shock. What prompted the young soldiers to seize power were rifts between politicians, and a series of increasingly violent elections.

Both Shagari and Awolowo belonged to the First Generation, hence 1979 was still a contest within the set of leaders that broadly led the country to its independence. Then followed a slew of coups, as the military tightened their grip. Shagari was deposed in 1983, bringing Muhammadu Buhari to power. Buhari, having participated in one of the 1966 coups, was also a member of that First Generation of politically awake military officers. Buhari was deposed by Ibrahim Babangida in 1985. Babangida ruled until 1993, when he was

When the military took power, the hopes of the second generation of politicians were truncated. Power did not transit from the first generation of politicians to a second generation, but to a generation of soldiers who have held power under various guises ever since. The military ruled for the next 13 years directly, and then indirectly after Olusegun Obasanjo handed over to Shehu Shagari, a cabinet member in Nigeria’s First Republic, following his victory over Obafemi Awolowo in the 1979 elections. THE AFRICA REPORT

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BRIEFING 21

forced out. Sani Abacha, who had also taken part in the 1966 coups, took power for himself. Abacha then died in 1998, and Abdulsalami Abubakar oversaw a swift return to civilian rule, handing over to erstwhile dictator Obasanjo in May 1999. Obasanjo handed over to Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007, and following Yar’Adua’s death in 2009 Goodluck Jonathan took office. Jonathan was ultimately defeated by Buhari in 2015. But as age catches up with them, the 1966 crowd is leaving the stage. The generation that hopes to take its place came up under dictatorships. This second generation includes former vice-president Atiku Abubakar, former Lagos State governor Bola Tinubu, and Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai. Atiku was once head of customs and financed the first campaign of Olusegun Obasanjo, and was later his vice-president. Tinubu is a key kingmaker in the governing All Progressives Congress (APC). El-Rufai is a leading northerner in the current administration, also from the APC. These men, all in their 60s or close, have never known the exercise of political power other than via some sort of military-civilian paradigm in a subservient role to the 1966 generation. They expect to exercise power, having paid their dues. It remains to be seen how they can handle the transition. For this second generation of politicians faces a challenge from a younger generation.

My generation. We are in our 30s and 40s. My generation includes names such as lawyer and Chocolate City Entertainment founder Audu Maikori, business professor Kayode Odusanya, head of the All Progressives Youth Forum Ismail Ahmed, member of the house of representatives Dapo Lam Adesina, Ijaw Youth Council president Udengs Eradiri, businessman and young presidential candidate Ahmed Buhari, executive secretary of the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund Akin Oyebode, head of new media for the People’s Democratic Party Deji Adeyanju, head

My generation blames our elders for the state of the country. We are less reverent of digital communications for the presidency Tolu Ogunlesi, special assistant to the Abia State governor Sam Hart, corporate consultant Humphrey Akanazu, PollWatchNG founder Muyiwa Gbadegesin, and yes, even Indigenous People of Biafra activist Nnamdi Kanu. These people are eager to take up political power, and, for the most part, are unwilling to be subservient. Some of them are already in the process of acquiring that power. My generation has different attitudes and aspirations from those who are in their 60s, and crucially, blames the state of the country, especially the gaping disparity in the spread of national wealth and influence, on our elders. We are, therefore, less reverent. My generation of politically conscious Nigerians have fed on nearly two decades of a mostly democratic paradigm. The second generation that believes it to be its turn to take over will not simply step aside for us to take over after having waited in line for 51 years. Those people also realise that their window of opportunity to take and hold power is significantly smaller than that of their predecessors and is perhaps a maximum of twenty years. So, it is very likely that the next two election cycles will witness an epic inter-generational battle for political, and by extension, economic power in Nigeria. In many ways, this has already started. The best example of this clash right now is Audu Maikori and Kaduna governor El-Rufai. El-Rufai has made use of the security services to arrest Maikori – more than once – for "hate speech". Part of the reason is that Maikori has a barely concealed ambition to become governor. Another example can be found among the Igbo. As distasteful as Nnamdi Kanu‘s secessionist ideology is, he is gathering a lot of young people to his cause because of the belief that the older generation has failed. The stage is set for a battle over the changing of the guard. *SBM Intelligence is a Nigerian geopolitical risk consultancy. Cheta Nwanze tweets from @chxta

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Diaspora dynamo

Viewed together, the estimated 170 million Africans that form the African Union’s ‘sixth region’ represent a powerhouse that could solve the continent’s problems THE AFRICA REPORT

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CAMIL

LE CH

AUVIN

FOR TA

By Oheneba Ama Nti Osei

ention Lupita Nyong’o, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, Isha Sesay or David Adjaye, and most Africans will beam with pride. These movers and shakers form part of the African diaspora, people of African origin living outside the continent who are changing the narrative about Africa around the world. Due to the number of refugees and undocumented migrants who are not included in official statistics, it is difficult to determine the population of Africans in the diaspora, though the African Union (AU) estimates that around 170 million THE AFRICA REPORT

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Africans are living abroad. The continental body formally recognised the group as the sixth region of the AU in 2012. Of the many contributions the diaspora makes to the continent, remittances remain an important pillar for many cash-strapped economies. Nigerians abroad remitted a total of $35bn last year, the highest amount received by an African country. In Kenya, diaspora remittance has been the single largest source of foreign exchange receipts in three straight years, and stood at $1.71bn in 2016, an 11% increase from 2015. But beyond providing capital and investment, a lot more can be gleaned

J U LY- AU G U S T 2 017

from this migrant group. According to the World Bank’s vice president for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Hafez Ghanem, the diaspora is a “potential goldmine of knowledge, skills and business networks,” that, if mobilised, could solve many of the continent’s current challenges. With profiles of five outstanding diasporans, The Africa Report takes a look at how this group is using its influence at home and abroad to dispel common myths about Africa and its people, while award-winning lawyer and writer Petina Gappah reveals some of the paradoxes in Zimbabwe’s diaspora experience.

24 FRONTLINE | DIASPORA DYNAMO

Half-lives, nostalgia and hope By Petina Gappah in Berlin

WRITER PICTURES/LEEMAGE

n 2009, I found myself in Galway, a lively city with a strong bohemian vibe on Ireland’s west coast. It was not a place in which I expected to run into Zimbabweans. Yet there was Martha, a mental health nurse who lived there with her family and was as delighted as I was to encounter a fellow Zimbabwean. Since then, I have visited more than 30 cities on four continents. In just about every city, whether Auckland or Los Angeles, Helsinki or Munich, Geneva or Melbourne, I have met Zimbabweans who have found new homes to form one of Africa’s largest diaspora populations. The Zimbabwean diaspora covers the spectrum, from hospital workers like Martha to UKbased actress Thandie Newton, champion boxer Dereck Chisora and writer Brian Chikwava. It was very different in 1994, when I left Zimbabwe as a 23-year-old postgraduate law student. The diaspora was a trickle, but leaving the country was part of being Zimbabwean. Migrant labour at all levels, outgoing and inward-bound, was key to the country’s development.

But leaving also meant returning. Migration experts note Zimbabwe’s particularity: a country to which other Africans came to find work, and which its own citizens left, also to find work. Sometimes the trickle of leavers turned into waves. In the 1960s and 1970s, tens of thousands of miners recruited by the Witwatersrand Native Labour Association left Zimbabwe and neighbouring states to work in the mines of South Africa, a human traffic that is hauntingly evoked in Hugh Masekela’s song Stimela.

Contributions to home economy

(Top 10 remittance recipients

13.4% 2 United Kingdom

($2bn)

(between 2000 and 2016)

4.6%

Nigeria

Uganda

6.4%

20.4%

4.8%

($0.2bn)

Ghana

($0.6bn)

($1.1bn)

Togo

Gambia

1 Australia

Ethiopia

Kenya

($1.7bn)

($0.2bn)

11,787

Number of doctors from sub-Saharan Africa working in the United States – more than in 34 African countries combined.

21.2%

($2bn)

Comoros

29.6%

($0.2bn)

Liberia

17.5%

Lesotho

($0.2bn)

($0.7bn)

Madagascar ($0.4bn)

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

($0.6bn) South Africa

26%

South Africa

20 million

Estimated number of people from the Middle East and North Africa living abroad.

4 New Zealand

9.5%

SOURCE: TANKWANCHI, VERMUND, AND PERKINS, 2015

Nigerian diaspora remittances

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$35bn

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SOURCE: NIGERIA GOVERNMENT, GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE PARTNERSHIP ON MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT

($19bn)

SOURCE: STATSSA

Mali

($0.8bn)

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

Top 5 overseas destinations of South African emigrants

25%

5.7%

($0.2bn)

As one group returned, another left. The 1980s saw the second small wave of the diaspora leaving the country, never to return. These were the disaffected white Rhodesians, uneasy about what independence meant. They earned the nickname ‘The When-Wes’ because their conversations were peppered with nostalgia-soaked observations beginning: “When we were in Rhodesia …” The Gukurahundi massacres, in which some 20,000 people in Matabeleland perished in the mid1980s, created another wave of diasporans. This wave washed up over the southern border, where tens of thousands of Zimbabweans, predominantly Ndebele speakers, blended into the South African landscape.

5 Germany

Senegal

13%

THE WHEN-WES

3 USA

% GDP)

13.5%

Cabo Verde

Younger Zimbabweans also left to study abroad. Most of this first wave returned home. The mine workers never wanted to settle in South Africa. At independence in 1980, the erstwhile students used their newly acquired education and technical skills to find good positions in the civil service and the professions.

JOSIAH KAMAU/BUZZFOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES

DIASPORA DYNAMO | FRONTLINE 25

TREVOR NOAH South Africa/US, comedian

Trumping American talent on late-night TV

rom the dusty streets of Soweto to the bright lights of New York City… How did a relatively unknown comedian from Johannesburg conquer the competitive late-night television market in the United States? The person is, of course, Trevor Noah, presenter of the acclaimed and award-winning satirical late-night talk show programme The Daily Show. Arguably one of the biggest jobs in television, the spotlight was on Noah when he took over the hot seat from the long-time presenter, Jon Stewart, in 2015 using current news affairs

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as a point of entry for the political comedy show. The critics were quick to point out that as a foreigner he might not understand the political nuances of America, especially in an era when the pressure to stay at the top of television ratings is intense. Two years later, and with Donald Trump’s presidency providing ample material, Noah has proved his critics wrong. In May alone he had more than a million viewers glued to his show – not bad for a so-called newbie to the American television scene. Noah, who grew up at the height of apartheid, knows racism first-hand.

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Still, it was not something that he expected to experience when he moved to America. He says that in the past six years he’s been stopped by the police “'between eight and 10 times […] it’s insane that it’s such a normal thing,” he said on The Daily Show. Prior to his American debut, Noah was already a well-known face in South Africa, hosting a radio show, Noah’s Ark, and also a television show, Tonight with Trevor Noah. He later dropped all TV work to focus on developing his comedy brand, for which he crisscrossed South Africa, and building a solid fanbase with his take on local politics and in particular President Jacob Zuma and his various political scandals. Noah has received many accolades but it was his 2016 interview with Barack Obama before the latter stepped down as President that remains a firm favourite. He told The Los Angeles Times: “Never, ever in my wildest dreams did I imagine I would be on a first-name basis with the president of the United States of America. Especially the first black president. And maybe the last. Hopefully not.” Last year, Noah published the New York Times bestseller Born a Crime: Stories from a South African Childhood, in which he chronicles growing up under apartheid with his black mother and the relationship with his Swiss-born father. The book also gives us insight into Noah’s understanding of race relations in the country and how he has had to navigate this. He has already received two awards from the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People for the book: Debut Author and Outstanding Literary Work. On how long he will host the show, Noah says it will be for “as long as I feel I can positively contribute to a conversation in the community that I’m in, whether it’s late-night (TV) or the political discourse”. He says his biggest inspiration is his beloved mother, Patricia Nombuyiselo Noah. The funnyman returns to his home country in August for a one-off performance. “I am coming back home to do a show – not because Trump has kicked me out, but because I would like to do a show for you – new jokes, new show and new guests.” Crystal Orderson

26 FRONTLINE | DIASPORA DYNAMO

But the tidal wave has come in the past two decades of the crisis. Zimbabwe is known for its extreme figures and statistics, led by the world’s oldest president, at 93. Until the jettisoning of the local currency in 2009, the country had an inflation rate that saw its reserve bank printing billion-dollar and trillion-dollar notes, which are now valuable collectors’ items. Perhaps

the most alarming statistic now is the skyrocketing unemployment rate. On May Day this year, Zimbabwe’s largest labour organisation, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, stated that 90% of the working population was jobless – that is, they cannot find jobs in the formal sector. With its more than 15 universities churning out about 30,000 graduates

a year into a shrinking economy, Zimbabweans face some choices. You can either take a casual job – many go into cross-border trading, but most go into farming. Or you can leave the country to find more secure work elsewhere. There is a direct link between the country’s vertiginous economic decline and the exponential growth of its diaspora.

ELON MUSK South Africa/US, entrepreneur

hat if you could actually get rid of the whole notion of national diasporas as we know it? If Elon Musk succeeds in his goal of sending a million humans to Mars, he will create the first interplanetary diaspora. Quite a turnaround for a kid who remembers being bullied in schools in Pretoria, South Africa, and who moved to Canada when he was 17. The rest of his story is better known: earning billions after starting the company that eventually became Paypal, launching the Tesla electric car company, and, of course, SpaceX, which has a $5.7bn contract with NASA to resupply the International Space Station, and which is developing

REFUGIO RUIZ/AP/SIPA

From Cape Canaveral to Cape Town the Mars mission. By the end of August, SpaceX hopes to launch its Falcon Heavy rocket, which its says will fly two paying passengers around the moon in 2018. Throughout history, diasporans have brought crucial capital and skills back to their home economies. The Chinese economy owes its stellar take-off in the 1990s to the legions of Hong Kong investors who married their sense of home to their newlyminted millions. They started pouring money over the border into the tiny backwater fishing village of Shenzen, seeding what was to become the huge factory cities on which China forged its reputation as workbench of the world.

Musk appears happy in Los Angeles for now, but his business may make an appearance on the continent. Tesla autos already has an office in South Africa. Musk is believed to be pondering a ‘gigafactory’ in Cape Town to build the Tesla Powerwall, a home-sized battery unit. Currently, the Italian electricity utility Enel, which has already built renewable power plants in South Africa, is testing the Powerwall with customers in Cape Town. The kit costs about $10,000, and attaches to solar panels, with the whole thing managed through your television. These early models are meant to pay for themselves in eight years, and expected to last for two decades.

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DIASPORA DYNAMO | FRONTLINE 27

He is bullish on his Powerwall 2 technology, telling South Australia he could fix its rolling blackout problem with a large battery farm. Musk tweeted in March: “Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free”, but the Australian government didn’t find the money. Even if South Africa’s Powerwall factory doesn’t materialise, the huge investments Musk is making in the battery business have a direct impact on the green energy industry. Although the average cost for solar production fell over 70% between 2010 and 2016 – now costing 5-6 cents per KwH according to the US Energy Information Administration – without better storage solar panels will always have an Achilles heel: nightfall. Derisking this by creating cheap power storage is unlocking billions into climate-friendly energy production. A boon for everyone, but especially for Africa, the continent most at risk from rising temperatures. Likewise, Musk’s work with Tesla has created a new dynamic in the electric car sector. Where before it was treated as a far-in-the-future concept by the big auto makers, now GM, Ford, Renault and others are all scrambling to bring out new versions to compete. Each non-green car puts out 4 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, a key contributor to climate change. Musk is less sure about the potential success of another of his key projects: to create a ‘neural lace’ that helps the human brain interact with computers, in a bid to keep up with the huge strides being made in artificial intelligence. “We’ll be like a pet labrador if we’re lucky,” he said in 2015, when asked about the relationship between man and the robots of the future. Nicholas Norbrook THE AFRICA REPORT

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The precise size of the diaspora is unknown. To those compiling this information, the question of how many Zimbabweans are entitled to vote is a mystery more impenetrable than the exact location of Cleopatra’s tomb. As the ruling party declares its high-level support, many suspect the Zimbabwean African National UnionPatriotic Front has been making

LUCY GICHUHI Kenya/Australia, politician

Reaching high office Down Under

ucy Gichuhi was born near the slopes of Mount Kenya. She grew up with her eight siblings, who walked barefoot to school together. But she studied hard and became a lawyer before immigrating to Australia with her young family nearly two decades ago. In April, she became Australia’s newest senator, and the country’s first African to hold office. Gichuhi is an independent who is seen as a rising star. She has won praise from all parties for her harsh views of the country’s welfare state and immigration policies. In her first speech to the Senate she spoke of her humble beginnings in Kenya: “With no electricity, we relied on the light of a paraffin lantern to do our homework. Sometimes, when my parents could not afford to buy paraffin, we used the light from the fireplace to do our homework,” she told a session of the country’s 76 senators. For her, and based on her experience as a lawyer, to migrate and gain citizenship in a host country “is not a right; it is a privilege”. What she represents, as an immigrant who preaches the value of hard work and shuns government handouts, is welcomed by many in a country struggling to deal with an influx of economic migrants.

“I remember the first time we found welfare money in our bank account, shortly after our arrival in Australia,” she told the Senate. “We were terrified because we were not used to receiving money from strangers for nothing. […] I said to my husband, ‘We will have to return it.’” Earlier this year, an Australian High Court ruled in Gichuhi’s favour after an opposition party challenged her eligibility to serve in Parliament based on dual citizenship concerns. Gichuhi automatically lost her Kenyan citizenship when she became an Australian citizen in 2001 (the Kenya law has changed since), and won’t be able to vote in the upcoming Kenyan elections, which are open to its diaspora for the first time. She often speaks of her love for her adopted country: “The diversity of colour, race, cultural backgrounds and religion go towards making up what we believe it is to be Australian,” she says. Gichuhi studied at the University of Nairobi, University of South Australia and University of Adelaide. Before joining Australia’s upper house as a senator for South Australia, she worked at Ernst & Young, Postbank, ActionAid and Madison Insurance. Mark Anderson

28 FRONTLINE | DIASPORA DYNAMO

fraudulent use of the voters' roll, which still includes Zimbabweans who have left the country. There is a weird paradox here: those who fled the country have left their names on the voters’ register, names that are being illicitly used to bolster the vote for the ruling party, whose record of economic mismanagement and political repression has been driving the migration. But if the numbers of migrants are elusive, you can follow the money to see the power of Zimbabwe’s diaspora. At a ‘re-engagement’ conference to woo investors in London last July, John Mangudya, the governor of the reserve bank, painted a gloomy picture of capital inflows into Zimbabwe. Two decades of inward-looking policies and general misrule have dramatically cut inflows and investment.

NIKOS DEJI ODUBITAN Nigeria/Greece, human rights advocate

Fighting for rights to citizenship immigrants and spreads awareness about the plight of migrant youths in Greece. The advocacy group, which works closely with the Directorate of Immigration in Athens, joined forces with the Institute for Rights, Equality & Diversity (i-RED) in December 2013 to change the laws, and their work is starting to pay off. In July 2015, the Greek parliament passed a new law amending the Citizenship code and allowing minors born to foreign nationals to secure the right to Greek citizenship under certain conditions. But the law has not been implemented since, and Odubitan says he won’t stop until every person born in Greece with migrant origins has direct access to equal rights. Having obtained Nigerian citizenship some years ago, Odubitan has now acquired Greek citizenship. “I was born and grew up with two cultures and I’m proud of that,” says Odubitan, who stays connected to his Nigerian roots and is fluent in the Yoruba language. Oheneba Ama Nti Osei

CREATIVE MIGRATION

or Greek-Nigerian Nikos Deji Odubitan, life in the diaspora has not been a walk in the park. His battle to be formally recognised as a Greek citizen is one that reflects the harsh realities many undocumented Africans face in a foreign land. But Odubitan’s case was slightly different. Born in Athens to Nigerian parents, Odubitan had a rude awakening at 17 when he realised he was a foreigner in the country he had always called home. “It’s the age at which young Greeks receive their letter for compulsory military service. Like everyone else I was waiting for mine but it never came,” he told our sister publication Jeune Afrique last year. His situation was made worse by the fact that he didn’t have Nigerian citizenship either: “To obtain Nigerian citizenship, I had to go to the closest embassy, which was in Italy. But in order to leave Greek territory, you need an ID card and a residence permit. It’s the same problem when you’re re-entering,” he explained. Due to the strict ‘citizenship by blood-right’ rule in Greece, children of migrant parents born in the south-eastern European country cannot obtain automatic citizenship. Odubitan’s only option then was to apply for a residence permit, which also proved challenging because he had no entry stamp in his new passport, and eventually to seek Greek nationality. At a crossroads, he decided to take the initiative and do something about it. In 2006 he launched Generation 2.0 for Rights, Equality and Diversity, a nonprofit organisation that advocates Greek citizenship rights for second-generation

Diaspora remittances are now the country’s second-largest foreignexchange earner after exports. Official figures from the reserve bank report flows of hundreds of millions of US dollars per year coming in through remittances. The real figure is much higher, as most of the inflows do not go through the formal banking system. Zimbabwe, like Somalia, is being kept afloat by its diaspora in South Africa, Botswana, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and Australia. As international migration rules tightened, Zimbabweans learned to be as creative as other nationals, such as the Congolese, in order to enter the countries of their choice. An unintended consequence of British policy under former prime minister Tony Blair’s government was that it that helped create a record number of Zimbabwean asylum seekers in the early 2000s. At the time when American and British troops were storming into the Middle East to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, more asylum seekers from Zimbabwe than from Iraq were landing in Britain. Such was Britain’s official rhetoric against Robert Mugabe that the government’s immigration service had to accept the logic of labelling him a tyrannical pariah. Zimbabweans became expert at recounting the details of the political oppression to which they were subjected. Thousands of people won political asylum when N° 92

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MINNA SALAMI Nigeria/UK, writer and blogger

What it means to be Afropolitan

peaking from a rented office in Lagos where she is working for a few months, Minna Salami shares one of her fondest memories from her early days in a Swedish suburb at age 13: “On the first day of school, one of my classmates got angry at the teacher and threw

a chair at him.” Coming from a very strict Nigerian background where teachers were revered and respected, she was left speechless: “I just remember sitting with my mouth open, thinking ‘What is this?’” But after 26 years living in the diaspora, which saw her move to Finland via other

they were simply in search of better economic opportunities. Will the diasporans return to Zimbabwe if the economy improves? Zimbabweans abroad can find themselves in that twilight zone familiar to all diasporans, but particularly those who were forced out. Even when they take on another citizenship, many of them create a kind of ersatz Zimbabwe in their new countries. More than ever, social media keeps people connected to home. Diasporans often live halflives, never fully present in their new countries. Homesick and heartsick, their lives revolve around memories. THE AFRICA REPORT

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countries before settling in the UK, Salami has grown to embrace and balance the cultural differences. “I am Nigerian, Finnish and Swedish […] but I am also specifically a Lagosian, Londoner and Malmoite, the three cities in which I have lived over a decade,” says the SOAS-educated journalist, who was listed alongside Michelle Obama as one of the ‘12 women changing the world’ by ELLE Magazine in 2015. In 2012 she started her award-winning blog MsAfropolitan, which touches on feminist issues in Africa and in the diaspora, and her own journeys between cultures. When she talks about Afropolitanism, she emphasises that unlike the term ‘diaspora’, which largely connotes the African experience outside the continent, Afropolitanism exists as much within the continent as outside it and is concerned with social, political and cultural change much like pan-Africanism. “But I see Afropolitanism, panAfricanism and diaspora as connected,” she says. As a writer who has lived both in Africa and abroad, she says her international exposure has pros and

They flock to hear musicians whose songs remind them of home, such as Oliver Mtukudzi or Thomas Mapfumo. People gather to eat Zimbabwean dishes such as peanut stew and sadza. They give their children meaningful Shona or Ndebele names, but wince in pain as the children mangle the pronunciation. Talking to Zimbabweans in the diaspora suggests that most would return if they could. Above all, diasporans are demanding that parliament makes dual citizenship available to all Zimbabweans, even those who were not born in the country. They also

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cons: “On the one hand, it brings new experiences – and experience is to a writer what a petri dish is to a lab scientist. On the other hand, African writers who have spent no or little time in the diaspora may develop a less encumbered voice.” Salami says many of the problems we face today in cross-cultural relationships are as a result of focusing too much on our differences. “We complicate things for ourselves a lot with this divide between African and Western culture and moving back and forth between the diaspora and the continent.” This sentiment was highlighted in her popular 2015 TED Talk, during which she shared stories of African women and how similar they are to women everywhere. She says the African Union’s recognition in 2012 of the African diaspora as its sixth region makes sense and was more an act of reclamation. “The majority of Africans in the diaspora have left involuntarily, through slavery, forced migration, or political, cultural and social reasons that are linked to the historical and contemporary global order”. Oheneba Ama Nti Osei

want the right to vote from overseas in Zimbabwe’s elections. That suggests that Zimbabweans abroad feel as connected to their country as those at home. And if the economic conditions were to improve, they would be packing their bags to return home, like the mine workers of the first diaspora did before them. But first, they are likely to ask many hard questions about the long-lost country to which they are returning. Petina Gappah is the author of three books, most recently the short-story collection Rotten Row (Faber).

Kenya The fight Kenya’s President Kenyatta is pulling out all the stops to beat opposition leader Raila Odinga in the 8 August election. Fears are mounting that violence could erupt, especially around local contests

By Mark Anderson and Morris Kiruga in Nairobi, Nyeri, Nakuru, Eldoret, Kakamega and Mombasa

n a bright morning in June, Nakuru’s matatu stand is teeming with dozens of waiting minibuses and hawkers selling phone credit, socks and newspapers. Overhead, billboards are plastered with the faces of local politicians soliciting votes in the general election on 8 August. This is the hub of the Rift Valley, a vast region that stretches from the country’s southern borderwithTanzaniauptoEthiopiainthe north, and is home to 10 million people. The Rift Valley’s mishmash of ethnic groups will play a decisive role in the country’s political future. The stakes in the election are high, and in nearly every vote since a multiparty democracy was established in 1992 the Rift Valley has seen vote-rigging and violence. The race for State House is tightening between the governing Jubilee Alliance and the opposition’s National Super Alliance (Nasa) coalition. An election that had been seen as an easy win for President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto is now too close to call. This time around, there is no trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC), which Kenyatta and Ruto, known THE AFRICA REPORT

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of a lifetime

popularly together as UhuRuto, used to great effect in shoring up support in the 2013 poll. The duo, who had been on opposing sides in the aftermath of the December 2007 election, came together to cast the ICC as imperialists trying to intervene in Kenya’s politics. But in this election, rising food prices, youth unemployment and soaring national debt have turned many against the pair.

Voter registration in Kibera, one of the worst-hit places for post-election violence in 2008 THE AFRICA REPORT

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THOMAS MUKOYA/REUTERS

ONE MEAL A DAY

Billy Sipayo, 32, a matatu conductor, takes a break from hustling for fares to talk about the election. “Look at this road, the governor has done nothing for Nakuru,” he says, motioning to the potholed surface beneath his feet. “We want Nasa to win the national race because of the economy. We are backing Nasa because of the rising cost of food – nowadays we take only one meal a day. Jubilee swallows public money.” In a veterinary supply store down the street, three women sit behind a counter. “There’s a lot of tension here, so we don’t knowwhatwillhappen,” saysonewoman, who wears a white doctor’s coat and declines to give her name. “The way they are campaigning is making us worried. The words they are using are scaring us because they are saying the results will not be fair and [local politicians] are going to dispute the results.” As the race gets closer, worries about violence are mounting in many areas. Inter-ethnic tensions are simmering all along the Rift Valley, pastoralists are clashing in Laikipia and deep-rooted mistrust of the central government is heating up the Coast. In the last election, both sides preached peace in the hope of avoiding the horrors of the 2007 elections, which saw about 1,300 people killed and 600,000 displaced. One of the worst-hit areas in the country was Nairobi’s Kibera slum. Long-time resident Moses Ambasa, 64, lived through that crisis. He says a repeat of electoral violence is likely this

32 POLITICS

year. “People in Kibera are not ready to trust the result,” Ambasa says. Politicians also point to high tensions. “We as political parties are very sensitive to the fact that violence can break out any time,” Suleiman Shahbal, Jubilee’s candidate for Mombasa governor, tells TheAfricaReport.“Igointoeverymeeting with a minimum of 10 bodyguards. It’s unfortunate, but it’s necessary,” he says.

pressure away from the national race and into local battles. Jubilee is investing massive resources to challenge Nasa’s dominance in the country’s three largest cities: Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu. One of the many ways that devolution has modified politics can be seen in Kenyatta’s spat with Josephat Nanok, the governor of Turkana. Kenya’s secondlargest county, Turkana is also home to a discovered deposit of 750m barrels of oil and is a key node in the planned Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor. The spat is about the share of oil revenue reserved for local communities, which the central government wants to cap at 5%. Such debates are prevalent in county politics, setting the stage for the most complicated elections in Kenya’s history.

Number of registered voters (million)

SOURCE: IEBC, PROVISIONALLY AS OF 9 JUNE 2017

The lessons from 2007 are in danger of being forgotten. In a country where voterigging has been common, the credibility of the electoral process is deeply linked to the likelihood of violence. “Violence never just happens,” Nasa presidential candidate Raila Odinga says. “Violence happens when there’s an injustice. In 2008, the campaigns were very peaceful, it was only after the electoral commission announced what everybody knew were [fake] results,” Odinga says. “That’s when the country exploded.” After the 2013 poll, which Jubilee won in the first round of voting, Odinga launched an appeal in the Supreme Court. When this was rejected, he fixed his sights on reforming the Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), which had long been criticised as beinginthepocketofthegoverningparty. Regular protests shut down Nairobi’s central business district last year until the government agreed to reorganise the electoral commission. These changes seem to have assuaged some of the opposition’s worries. Wafula Chebukati, a veteran lawyer and a former member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement, was appointed the IEBC’s new chairman in January. But as the election nears, doubts about its credibility remain. In early June, the IEBC was still making critical changes in its personnel, particularly in the procurement department. And by late June, both main political groups were fighting about Al Ghurair, a United Arab Emirates-based firm that won the tender to print ballots. Despite these setbacks, Odinga says he has no “strong views” about the IEBC. “We have [fewer] issues with them [than previous commissions],” he adds. “The good thing is that they listen and they are ready to consult both sides.” The 2010 constitution brought devolved government, changing the dynamics at play in this election. A focus on county-level politics is shifting electoral

TONY KARUMBA/AFP

CREDIBILITY CRUCIAL

19.6 14.3

2013

2017

While ethnic arithmetic still means a lot, especially at the national stage, other issuesareimportant.Enhancingdevolved units is one of the key pillars of Odinga’s manifesto. Odinga’s side also promises to increase allocations to counties to almost half of national revenue. While the campaign gains speed, worshippers file into Kakamega’s main mosque as chickens and goats scurry between stacks of bricks and piles of gravel in the lot outside. Next door, Elizabeth Ngatia, 31, sits by the entrance toaprimaryschoolthatservesasapolling station. Ngatia is a verification agent in charge of double-checking that voters have been correctly registered. She is using a Safran Morpho tablet that has a fingerprint scanner. In order to verify that a voter’s information is correct, she scans a QR code to bring up polling station information, enters the person’s ID number and scans their thumbprint. In spite of these advances in election management, the government says the electronic transmission of votes alone is not adequate. Of the more than 170 new laws that parliament has passed since 2013, few have been more divisive than the Election Laws Amendment Act, which requires a manual voter register to be used as backup to the biometric register. Nasa sees it as a Trojan horse that would allow Jubilee to fiddle with the register on polling day.

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POLITICS 33

Left: President Uhuru Kenyatta (C) and his deputy, William Ruto (R) extol the virtues of the newly launched Madaraka Express Above: A Raila fan shows his support at the Nasa coalition rally where Odinga was announced as the opposition candidate

The case for a manual backup was built on failures of biometric systems, most infamously during Nigeria’s 2015 elections, when a system could not recognise then president Goodluck Jonathan’s fingerprints. But in Kenya, it was a key grievance in the opposition’s election petition in the 2013 elections because it was seen as a way to manipulate the vote count. RAISING THE DEAD

There are other problems with the voter registration list. A report released by KPMG in early June found 92,277 dead people on the electoral register. It also estimated that that number might rise to 1 million between the audit and the last round of registration. These figures have already shaken the system, given that the last election was decided by a vote margin of more than 800,000. At an opposition rally held at Kakamega’s Bukhungu Stadium on 3 June, thousands of screaming supporters waved placards reading “10 million strong” and “Uhuru must go”. The rally was the official launch of Odinga’s presidential campaign, which he insists will be his last. He was joined onstage by Nasa’s principal leaders: Kalonzo Musyoka, who is running as Odinga’s deputy and is the leader of the Wiper Democratic Movement; Musalia Mudavadi, leader of the Amani National Congress; and THE AFRICA REPORT

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scandal. Other groups criticised him for pushing settlers out of Mau Forest. Nasa is a loose coalition of 11 political parties, which has at its helm a five-man team, with each man bringing his own party. To avoid the mistakes of past coalitions, the team has divided up several key jobs in case it wins in August. The other political camp is getting ready for tough competition. On Madaraka Day, the first and last national holiday after the campaign began, Kenyatta and Ruto stared out across a crowded stadium in Nyeri. Odinga, in a beige hat, was seated a few seats behind them. The day before, Kenyatta had inaugurated the standard gauge railway, dubbed the Madaraka Express, built with $3.1bn of Chinese loans. “Madaraka Express, Ladies and gentlemen, is a

MosesWetangula,leaderofForumforthe Restoration of Democracy – Kenya. The coalition chose Kakamega as a launching pad to solidify its support base in Western Kenya. Kakamega County is the second-largest county in terms of population after Nairobi. For Odinga, this election is do or die. It is his fourth stab at the presidency in 20 years. If some continental trends are anythingtogoby,itmaybehisbestchance yet. In Ghana, Nana AkufoAddo defeated President For Odinga, this election is John Mahama in his third do or die. It is his fourth stab bid for the presidency. at the presidency in 20 years But the peaceful hand overs of West African countries have not been as common in East true living symbol of the journey we Africa. A defeated Odinga would not are undertaking together,” Kenyatta tells necessarily be considered a spent force, an unenthused crowd. “It is the foundabut it would dim his chances of ever tion for better incomes for our farmers, winning what has eluded him for two manufacturers and other businesses.” Kenyatta’s government has swatted decades. A victory would also mean a one-term Odinga presidency, as deteraway multiple controversies, includmined by his deal with Musyoka. ing a eurobond scandal and a public Odinga’s greater concern is the interhealthcare scandal that involved some nal mismanagement that has hampered of his relatives. An unresolved crisis in his previous runs for the presidency, as the healthcare sector, a shaky economy well as keeping the coalition together. and a united opposition coalition are Odinga, who served as prime minister piling pressure on Kenyatta and Ruto. between 2008 and 2013, is seen by Public debt has also doubled during many as a career oppositionist. During his term, pushing it to more than half his tenure, he won praise among his of the country’s gross domestic product. supporters for firing Ruto as minister Jubilee is struggling to appease myriad competing interests within its own of agriculture amid a maize-stealing

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34 POLITICS

MIGHT AND OPULENCE

2013 General Election Results (% of valid votes) Other candidates and parties

1.23% SOURCE: INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL AND BOUNDARIES COMMISSION

coalition. Some politicians are jockeying for position in the 2022 presidential race. Othershave becomeindependent candidates, causing headaches for the governing coalition. At the bare minimum, Kenyatta is relying on substantial turnout in both the Rift Valley and in the Central region, where Kalenjin voters are not as loyal to Jubilee as they were in 2013, to counter Nasa’s strong support in Western and Coastal regions. In Uhuru’s strongholds, his main problem is the flight of Jubilee politicians to independent candidacy. His deputy’s perceived hand in that exodus is perhaps the most existential threat to a Jubilee win. Ruto is also struggling to galvanise Kalenjin voters in the face of challenges from the family of former president Daniel arap Moi and the Kenya African National Union party, as well as his former ally Isaac Ruto, now an opposition kingpin. Odinga, on the other hand, is depending on the Luhya vote, which is historically hard to unify. This explains why he chose Kakamega as his electoral launch pad and has two key Luhya politicians – Mudavadi and Wetangula – in his coalition. Odinga also seems assured of the Kamba vote, as Kenyatta’s treatment of Kalonzo’s erstwhile rival, Charity Ngilu, drove her back into the opposition. Both sides of the divide are jostling for the Kisii and Coastal votes, while spreading their chances across the other parts of the country.

Uhuru Kenyatta Jubilee Alliance/TNA

50.51%

Peter Kenneth Eagle Alliance/ KNC

0.6% Raila Odinga Coalition for Reforms and Democracy/ODM

Musalia Mudavadi Amani Coalition/UDF

43.7%

3.96%

to happen, if previous elections are anything to go by. Wealthy Asian businessmen have, for example, traditionally funded both sides. The Friends of Jubilee Foundation is Kenyatta’s main fundraising vehicle and includes key Nairobi businessmen such as Paul Ndung’u, the head of telecoms company Mobicom, Peter Munga, the chairman of Equity Bank, and Stanley Kinyanjui, director of outdoor advertising giant Magnate Ventures. It also, curiously and controversially, includes a few high-ranking civil servants including the commissioner general of the Kenya Revenue Authority, John Njiraini. Chris Kirubi, chairman of Centum Investment, Kenya’s largest investment firm, is another high-profile supporter of Kenyatta’s government. “This is one

A few hundred metres from the stadium that hosted the Madaraka Day celebrations, about 10 helicopters sit on a grassy patch. The bulk of them are privately owned. By early June, there were only 88 Kenya’s electoral body tried registered helicopters in to impose spending limits, Kenya. But that has been but its efforts were shot down growing since the beginning of the year at the rate president who has done so much for of about five per month, as politicians this country in four years that it would and businesspeople buy them in the be a big pity if we didn’t allow him to run-up to the polls. Now, nearly all of just keep pushing his agenda forward,” Kenya’s leading politicians personally Kirubi tells The Africa Report, noting own choppers, straining the nation’s civil aviation authority. One candidate, progress in energy and transport. “This running in the capital city, owns two. is the first time the whole world has By all accounts, this year’s election honoured Kenya, where our president is a show of might and opulence. At a is invited by G7 to sit in their meetings fundraiser in early June, Kenyatta asked – they don’t invite just anybody.” the country’s business community not On the Nasa side, the campaign fito hedge their bets. But it’s unlikely nancing team is reportedly headed by a

wheeler-dealer, Jimi Wanjigi, and former attorney general Charles Njonjo. Wanjigi, a former schoolmate of Kenyatta’s, also claims he managed the deals for the new railway. Working under Mudavadi, the team’s main financiers include Nasa governors, especially Nairobi governor Evans Kidero and Mombasa governor Hassan Joho. They will also be relying on people such as former ports boss Brown Ondego and Johnson Muthama, a gemstone dealer who chose not to stand for re-election as a senator. Kenya’s electoral body was close to imposing campaign spending limits on this election through a parliamentary act, but its efforts were shot down by the country’s high court. “[The act] was suspended, so it’s a free for all. They can spend a lot of money,” Andrew Limo, an IEBC spokesman, tells The Africa Report. Without the caps, the leading presidential candidates are most likely going to spend a lot. “In terms of resources, as of the government, it’s like a battle between David and Goliath,” Odinga says. “We know that they outnumber us, outgun us, by far.” Back in Nyeri, as people streamed out of the stadium after the Madaraka Day celebrations, dozens of soldiers milled around and Jubilee flags were being sold. Above the sea of waving flags, a swarm of helicopters flew overhead. Aboard were the politicians who will decide Kenya’s future. They flew alongside each other for a few minutes, before parting ways to scour the country for votes.

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36 POLITICS

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma Former chair, African Union Commission

Family ties and the future of South Africa Being backed by her former husband is a double-edged sword, but the former minister and AU Commission chair rates her chances of becoming ANC president this year and the party’s presidential candidate in 2019

nowfall on the distant mountains in Lesotho brought a veil of rain, turning the roads in this KwaZulu-Natal village to mud. It was the first cold snap of winter, but the biting weather did not deter crowds flocking to the local sports field to see the politician who could become South Africa’s first woman president. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was born in a small settlement a few kilometres from this village, near Bulwer in KwaZulu-Natal. Some of the crowd knew her when she was growing up, others just wanted to show support. They were attending a ceremony to name a local authority after her. The launching of the Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma Local Municipality, a merger between two smaller councils, was a rare accolade. Only two other African National Congress (ANC) stalwarts – Nelson Mandela and Ruth Mompati – have had local authorities named after them. In these parts, Dlamini-Zuma is the woman of the moment, as the ANC prepares for its elective conference in December.

The odds are currently in her favour. She enjoys the support of her former husband, President Jacob Zuma, and his large grassroots network, which is strong in the rural areas. Whatever the controversies that surround him and the sharpening rivalries within the governing party, the benefits of incumbency and his patronage network mean that Zuma still wields considerable power. At the launch of the eponymous municipality, Dlamini-Zuma, sporting a thick coat and leather gloves, stepped into the ankledeep mud around the stage to dance – in that stiff, elbow-pumping style popularised by Nelson Mandela – with the local choir. SEVEN WONDERS

Much impressed by these singers, Dlamini-Zuma said that recording studios should be set up in the villages to introduce South Africa’s prodigious musical talent to the world. She talked about education and better governance in her speech but avoided blatant campaigning for office, which the ANC’s rules forbid. Those who shared the platform with her, however, did

A VETERAN LEADER 1940 Born in Natal 1976 Exiled to Britain for anti-apartheid activites, where she qualifies as a doctor 1994 Becomes minister of health 1999 Becomes minister of foreign affairs 2012 Elected Chair of AU Commission 2017 Replaced as AU head, starts campaign to replace Zuma as president

not hold back. Unconstrained, the municipality’s manager, Nkosiyezwe Cyprian Vezi, declared: “She is one of the seven wonders of the world, just like our mountainshere.” TheDrakensberg range on the KwaZulu-Natal and Lesotho borders is one of South Africa’s seven natural wonders. An ANC mayor from a nearby municipality said: “When she was fightingpharmaceuticalcompanies for cheap medicines, that was radical economic transformation.” Interpretations of ‘radical economic transformation’ vary according to the speaker’s political allegiances: whether they are from the camp of the traditionalist Zuma, or his rival, the more business-minded deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa. Dlamini-Zuma insists she sees economic transformation as about transferring power to the grassroots, a constant theme in her speeches. She is ill at ease in Western boardrooms. In April, she spoke at a small business dinner in London organised by Rob Hersov, chief executive of Invest Africa. Businesspeople at the dinner were underwhelmed. They complained that she had stepped up to the

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podium without greeting them. And she prefaced her remarks by saying that she would not answer any questions on land and on President Zuma. That all rather defeated the point of what was meant to be a full and frank exchange of views. “Most people stayed, and it was a deadly boring, dreary kind of speech,” said one of the attendees. SUCCESSES AND SCANDALS

As a minister, Dlamini-Zuma has earned credit for standing up for poor South Africans. As health minister in the 1990s, she took on the big pharmaceutical companies and forced them to cut prices. Big business was not impressed. That kind of enmity is a political asset in South Africa today. In a ministerial career spanning some 18 years and the portfolios of health, foreign affairs and home affairs, she saw in the banning of smoking in public places, the introduction of free health care for the poor, and the implementation of a groundbreaking peace deal in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Under her leadership, home affairs got a clean audit for the first time in 16 years. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Compared to many of her rivals for high office, her career has been relatively scandal-free. The worst blemishes were early in her career. Firstly, a playwright friend of hers was awarded a R13m ($1m) contract by the ministry of health in which bidding procedures were ignored. The job was to create an AIDS awareness play, Sarafina II. The play bombed, and activists said some of its messages were confusing, if not outright dangerous. Seen as a loyal cadre, Dlamini-

As a health minister under fire, Dlamini-Zuma was firmly backed by ANC colleagues Zuma, who was health minister at the time, won the backing of her fellow ANC comrades, and even some kind words from Mandela. Then came the Virodene scandal. This was a drug, championed by Dlamini-Zuma, which its developers claimed would cure HIV/ AIDS. But South Africa’s medical authorities refused to run tests on it, and a committee from the University of Pretoria and the Gauteng health department said it was a toxic industrial solvent.

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Again, senior ANC colleagues, including then president Thabo Mbeki, rallied behind DlaminiZumawhennewsemergedthatthe government had partly financed the drug’s development. As foreign minister from 1999 to 2009, Dlamini-Zuma met further hostility for her role in supporting President Mbeki’s quiet diplomacy towards Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe. And again, as chairwoman of the African Union (AU) Commission from 2012 to 2016, Dlamini-Zuma’s diplomatic style came under fire. She was accused of staying away from trouble spots, avoiding war zones and failing to act quickly to help contain the spread of the deadly Ebola virus in West Africa. STRUGGLES AT THE AU

Lively and animated in small groups, Dlamini-Zuma’s speechifyingoftenplumbednewdepthsof tedium, even by the low standards of international organisations. Her argument that it should be doing more to tackle the root causes of conflicts–structuralinequalityand poor governance – was not always well received at the organisation’s headquarters in Addis Ababa.

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money. “I know her personally, inside Some suspected that Dlamini-Zuma’s and out. She’s not just a comrade.” stint at the AU was more about internal South African politics and her husband’s Zuma’s Mother’s Day tribute continefforts to build a foreign policy legacy ued: “If we can make her [president] in than any clear strategic aims. Several big South Africa, the country would change drastically. She wants black people to crises–conflictsintheDRC,Sudan,South succeed. Those with big mouths would SudanandSomalia–continuedunabated be amazed,” he said, referring to his under her watch. Her efforts to send an critics. “She has love. She has talent.” AU peacekeeping force to Burundi were comprehensively outmanoeuvred by Some claim that Zuma has got his President Pierre Nkurunziza. business friends to finance public relations for Dlamini-Zuma’s presidential Her diplomatic skills had been quescampaign. She has a flashy website, tioned in the past. When she was named foreign minister, then South African opposition leader Party groups are running Tony Leon likened her apa proxy campaign under the pointment to “sending the woman president banner bull into the china shop”. However, after years of extolling her many achievements and is wrangling at the AU, she did succeed in travelling around the country speaking persuading member governments to to ANC branches. More than many of agree to a financing system that would break the organisation’s chronic dependher peers, Dlamini-Zuma styles herself ence on rich countries’ aid budgets. as a party stalwart, in the tradition of her ex-husband. Febe Potgieter-Gqubule, deputy chief of staff to Dlamini-Zuma at the AU, says If Dlamini-Zuma has tried to distance she is “a workaholic. She micro-manages herself from President Zuma, it has not worked. Many Zulus insist there is no people, but she then delivers the goods.” Dlamini-Zuma consistently pushed for such thing as divorce in their culture. women’s rights, adds Potgieter-Gqubule, Insiders say it would be inconceivable in all areas of AU business, including for her to win the presidency and allow conflict resolution and recruitment. her husband to face prosecution on any of the charges he faces – family ties would not allow it. “SHE HAS TALENT” “The children are close to both of Certainly, parts of the AU’s creaking bureaucracy improved under her watch. them,” a friend of one of their four She got AU meetings to finish and start daughters says. One story has it that Dlamini-Zuma’s children pleaded with on time. Her much-publicised Agenda 2063, a 50-year plan for the continent, was more contentious: some saw it as visionary, others dismissed it as vacuous. Unsurprisingly,giventheirpoliticaland personal ties, President Zuma was one of Dlamini-Zuma’s loudest cheerleaders. “The AU was dysfunctional, and as South Africa we sent someone we trust to solve problems,andsomeonewhoknowswhat the African people want,” he said. Thetworemainextremelyclosedespite her decision to divorce Zuma in 1998 after a 16-year marriage. In May, Zuma sat by Dlamini-Zuma’s side, giving his blessings to her at a Mother’s Day service at a Catholic church near Bulwer. Speaking in isi-Zulu, Zuma praised her as a “veteran leader” whose leadership skills started from primary school and who is “honest and responsible”. You can trust her even when you are asleep, he said. She knows politics, he said, and “you cannot fool her”. She knows how to lead, she cannot be bought with

her to turn down the offer of the deputy presidency from Mbeki in 2005. Days earlier, Mbeki had sacked Zuma from the position because he was facing corruption charges. Their youngest daughter, Thuthukile, 28, is as political as her parents. She was controversially appointed to senior posts by two of Zuma’s ministers. Now Thuthukile is one of her mother’s biggest campaigners. In January, she posted “A female president” on her Facebook wall as one of her political aspirations of the year. WHAT’S IN A NAME?

In June, the party’s youth and veterans’ leagues produced almost identical lists of candidates for the ANC’s top six leadership. Dlamini-Zuma topped them both. This followed the ANC Women’s League endorsement of her presidential ambitions in January. Two provincial premiers – Ace Magashule of Free State and David Mabuza from Mpumalanga – were on Dlamini-Zuma’s slate of candidates. They both aim to step into national politics when their provincial terms finish in 2019. Together with a third, North West premier Supra Mahumapelo, this group is known as the ‘Premier League’ and so far they back Dlamini-Zuma. These party groups, many of which are arguing that it is time for a woman president, have been running a proxy campaign for Dlamini-Zuma. She has helped this campaign by telling supporters of

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What South Africans are saying about Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma “It was a very powerful address by Mam [Nkosazana Dlamini-] Zuma. It resonated with students and the audience in KwaZulu-Natal. We were impressed by her radicalism and she reminded us of how important education is.” ANC Youth League spokesman Njabulo Nzuza “After careful consideration and opening our eyes as wide as possible, Cde Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is the only suitable candidate at this point in our history to lead the African National Congress in December 2017.” African National Congress (ANC) Women’s League official statement

ANC over the past decade and that is the key factor when it comes to voting for the party’s leader. At the ANC’s elective conference in 2012Dlamini-Zumawonmoreindividual votes than her ex-husband. At the fiercely fought elective conference in Polokwane five years earlier, she won strong support from both of the rival factions: Mbeki’s and Zuma’s. That is why some ANC officials back her as a unifying candidate, which could be a key quality sought by the nearly 5,000 voting delegates at this year’s conference in December. CLAIMS OF FACTIONALISM

Dlamini Zuma has a track record as a peace broker: in 2011 she was appointed to resolve the sometimes violent disputes over the ANC’s candidates for municipal council elections. She acquitted herself well according to Edna Molewa, a top official in the ANC Women’s League: “She was never vilified because of how she communicated and “She has her resumé and some people coordinated. She really understood and listened to feel she is the right person. We respect that. every problem. It was in the ANC Women’s League at Is she genuine? She really cannot think we take her seriously her farewell dinner at the AU such a way that was really with this radical economic transformation talk.” in January: “It’s very imporlifting people up, motiSizwe Pamla, speaking on behalf of the Congress vating them to go ahead.” tant for women to be mayors, of South African Trade Unions Other ANC militants, such as to be ministers, to be presidents, to be everything.” those among the ANC’s communist Perhaps Dlamini-Zuma’s biggest risk showed only 18% of voters want Zuma and trade union allies – where there is is her ties to her ex-husband, whose to stay in the presidency. Revelations in strong support for Cyril Ramaphosa to popularity is sinking as the corruption May from more than 2,000 leaked emails become the next ANC president – see that showed the close ties between govDlamini-Zuma as a factional choice due allegations against him are mounting. to her connection with Zuma. Young An eNCA/Ipsos survey published in May ernment officials and the Gupta brothers Communist League national secretary – already the subject of a report on ‘state capture’ by former public prosecutor Mluleki Dlelanga says: “Whether you Thuli Madonsela – have angered many call her an ex or not, it’s still a Zuma. The ANC is not for the Zuma family but for more South Africans. the people of South Africa.” Dlamini-Zuma’s failure to explain why state regulations were flouted to assign DlelangaaddsthatDlamini-Zumalacks VIP police protection to her after her the qualities to unify the party, which had become “highly corrupted and highly return from the AU posting has grated. factionalised”. Those who pushed for a She also plunged into another controversy when she said that children in state woman president were not sincere, he schools were being taught anti-ANC concludes: “Her name was decided by propaganda and that these schools men. It’s not about the women. It’s just should be transformed. To many, that a joke from the politics of factionalism.” is code for becoming less critical of the The point about factionalism could prove critical in the ANC elections. Voter governing party. choices may owe far more to delegates’ Soon afterwards, there was outrage ties to a particular faction rather than when a tweet appeared briefly on her the candidate’s personal qualities, still timeline condemning national demonstrations against President Zuma as less the candidate’s political ideas. “rubbish”. She claimed the tweet was Carien du Plessis fake, but few believed it. The #Zumaleaks emails revealed Carien du Plessis is working on a Doubtless Dlamini-Zuma’s stock is links between Ajay and Atul Gupta (L) book about Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s falling in the eyes of the wider public, and Jacob Zuma’s son Duduzane (R) race to the ANC presidency. but she has been wildly popular in the GALLO IMAGES/CITY PRESS/MUNTU VILAKAZI

“She is a step ahead of any potential candidate or competitor like Cyril [Ramaphosa] or any another candidate. Yes, she could become the president of ANC and the country but it means the Premier League will have the totality of the top six [positions] of the ANC [...] She might be the president without the power. She has to learn to love the Premier League agenda. There is no other way.” Writer and political analyst Ralph Mathekga

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NIGERIA

A season of all the dangers

With President Buhari temporarily out of the picture, vice-president Osinbajo is left to tackle festering ethnic and regional sentiments threatening the country

he slight figure of vice-president Yemi Osinbajo in his austere black tunic and Sokoto trousers looked incongruous, flanked by burly military officers, as he delivered his address to graduates at the Armed Forces Command and Staff College in Jaji on 23 June. But his message – a melange of hope and the direst of warnings – was absolutely on the mark. Osinbajo had spent much of the previous week meeting traditional and religious leaders, trying to dampen down a new wave of ethnic chauvinism. “Out of the rubble of cynicism, divisions and suspicions, we can build a new nation,” Osinbajo told the graduates, drawn from West Africa’s military elite, at the Jaji academy. Until now, Osinbajo has lived up to his billing as a self-effacing technocrat ill at ease with power politics.

That was part of Osinbajo’s job description as temporary head of state during President Muhammadu Buhari’s two extended absences on medical leave in London this year. The trouble started when Osinbajo broke out of political purdah, winning plaudits for taking initiatives. Then, at the beginning of June, a critique written under the pen name of Dr Ismaila Farouk accused Osinbajo of unduly favouring southern Christians in his appointments. It is a charge that Osinbajo’s office strongly rejects, insisting all his appointments have been strictly on merit. Osinbajo’s speech to the Jaji graduates tried a direct answer to Farouk’s critique: “The last two decades in Nigeria have witnessed a quickened retreat of the Nigerian elite to their

Fellow travellers on the road to 2019 THE BIG PICTURE EMERGING, as the government struggles with a rise in ethnonationalism, is that the presidential election due in mid-2019 will be the most open in Nigeria’s history. Open in the sense that neither of the two main parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – have a favoured candidate, given that President Muhammadu Buhari looks unlikely to run for a second term. The election is open also because of the tenuous alliances holding both parties together. In the opposition PDP, Ahmed Makarfi’s dissident faction has stepped up its campaign against the group led by Ali Modu Sheriff. The two sides are locked in court battles, after which the loser may decamp and start a new party. In the APC, there have been reports about mysterious meetings overseas between ex-vice-president Atiku Abubakar and ex-governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu about leaving the party to form a breakaway. Uncertainties about Buhari’s health may have changed their calculations. Tinubu sees himself as a mentor to vice-president Yemi Osinbajo, who served as finance commissioner in the Lagos State government. If Buhari steps down and Osinbajo becomes a caretaker president ahead of the 2019 elections, that would change the stakes in the APC’s presidential primaries. Senate president Bukola Saraki is a top presidential contender after the code of conduct tribunal dropped charges against him in June over claims he had made a false declaration of his assets. He will still face a government bid to appeal the decision. Other top contenders are Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai and former defence minister and Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. But most favoured by political insiders is former speaker of the house of representatives Aminu Tambuwal, who has nurtured good relations across the political spectrum. As a veteran politician in Abuja tells The Africa Report: “Sometimes in Nigeria, it’s the candidate with the fewest enemies who wins.” P.S.

ethnic and religious camps […]. Unity and disunity are promoted by the elite […]. When you hear a person say that my tribe has been marginalised, usually what he is saying is: ‘Appoint me’. Appointments in the public service are no longer judged on merit.” As he catalogued the failures of the ruling elite, Osinbajo set out a brighter future for the graduates: “A nation where the rulers do not steal the commonwealth,” he continued, “where every Nigerian is safe to live and work, where the state takes responsibility for the security of each Nigerian, a Nigeria where the Igbo or Ijaw man can live peacefully in Sokoto, and the Fulani man can live peacefully in the Niger Delta.” Nigeria’s diversity, like that of India and Italy, should be a great strength, he said. This cri de coeur was rendered more poignant still by its timing. Fifty years ago, regional clashes over rights and resources exploded into a civil war that lasted for three years and cost more than a million lives. Horrifically, Nigeria’s civil war pioneered a new generation of conflicts that was reproduced in Yugoslavia, Colombia, Sri Lanka and Sudan. It also defined the careers of Nigeria’s post-independence leaders. Men such as Generals Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari fought on the federal side against the Biafran secessionists. CALLS FOR ETHNIC CLEANSING

For many younger Nigerians, the past is another country. But some Nigerians have not moved on, seeing the war as unfinished business. Just three weeks before Osinbajo’s speech to the Jaji graduates, a group of militants from the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum called on all Igbos in northern Nigeria to leave the region before 1 October, national independence day. That was the sort of demand that triggered the civil war. Making the call at a press conference in Kaduna, the political capital of northern Nigeria, youth leader Abdul-Azeez Suleiman advised northerners living in THE AFRICA REPORT

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south-east Nigeria to leave that region questions about the coherence of the national security services. within the same time frame. He suggested that he was responding to the protest Information minister Lai Mohammed campaign by the Indigenous People of quickly condemned the expulsion calls, Biafra, which organised ‘stay at home’ as did the emir of Katsina, Abdulmumini Kabir Usman. Kaduna State governor protests in the south-east to mark the Nasir el-Rufai and inspector general anniversary of Biafra’s declaration of of police Ibrahim Idris ordered the independence. Suleiman has ratcheted up the tension police commissioner in Kaduna to dangerously, just as his counterpart arrest the Arewa youths, but there was in the south-east, Nnamdi Kanu, has no immediate response. done. On 10 June, Kanu’s Biafra campaigners advised Slow reactions fuel suspicions all southerners to leave of powerful interests behind northern Nigeria, and the wave of hate speech some have been heeding the call. Some Niger Delta It took the department of state militants opted for direct retaliation security almost two weeks to state with an extra financial twist, demanding that all northerners should leave the publicly that the ethnic cleansing plan oil-producing region and should give was criminal and a threat to national security. Such laggardly reactions have up all the oil blocks that they own. fuelled suspicions that some powThese calls for ethnic cleansing are a erful interests are behind the wave clear attack on the constitution, threatening to unpick the federation. But the of inflammatory statements, trying government’s failure to arrest any of to undermine the government while the purveyors of hate speech – either Osinbajo is in charge. If that is correct, it is still unclear what those powerful in the north or the south – raises more THE AFRICA REPORT

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On Democracy Day, 28 May, Osinbajo spoke out against those stoking ethnic divisions

interests want: to keep the seat warm for President Buhari’s return or to promote the interests of a different candidate in the 2019 elections. Whichever is the case, Jibrin Ibrahim, a veteran political analyst and chairman of the Premium Times editorial board, argues the present national problems are less life-threatening than those in the 1960s. But political reform with vision is required urgently, writes Ibrahim: “The central problem that has been generating the rise of ethno-regional tensions and conflicts has been the supplanting of Nigeria’s federal tradition by a virtual Jacobin unitary state that emerged under a long period of military rule.” Already, there are plenty of political contenders eyeing the 2019 elections and making promises about restructuring the federation (see box). But credible plans about how to reform the system and satisfy competing regional demands are in much shorter supply. Patrick Smith

Are Europe’s voters growing up?

ike any self-respecting West Africa trickster, Anansi registered to vote in elections in both France and Britain. As he duly exercised his democratic duty as a global citizen, he ruminated on what Europe’s changing political landscape might portend for Africa. Europeans are touchingly naïve when it comes to election security. You turn up at the polling station without any ID, and the serious-looking official asks you where you live and then solemnly hands you a ballot paper and a pencil. You are then directed to an open table to choose your candidate. A political activist friend in London’s trendy Notting Hill is convinced that last year’s referendum vote to leave the EU was entirely fraudulent. But the upside, he told Anansi over a pint of bitter at the Uxbridge Arms, is that suddenly European elections are consequential. Voters in both France and Britain in May and June went to the polls against a backdrop of terror attacks and deepening social divisions. Days after Britain’s elections, a fire broke out at a tower block with a loss of at least 79 lives. Many of the residents were refugees from the Middle East and Africa. Most poignantly, the first confirmed death was of a young Syrian who had fled his country’s inferno for what he had hoped would be sanctuary in Europe. The Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea, which owns the block, is one of the richest local authorities in Europe. It has treated families displaced by the fire with soul-destroying parsimony. This follows years of council officials haughtily dismissing residents’ concerns about the building’s safety. This absolutely avoidable tragedy reminded voters in Britain why they had defied the wishes of a handful of tax-dodging billionaire media barons and voted for a humiliation of the incumbent Conservative prime minister, Theresa May. Now heading a minority government, May has to rely on the votes of a dozen right-wing Ulster Unionists to pass laws. After her electoral debacle, May had to field a call from an amused Brussels mandarin inquiring when she might be ready to start negotiations to

leave the EU. The French term ‘emmerdée’ neatly covers her political predicament. Not that the rest of Europe has much to smile about. French voters faced a serious choice between the ‘extreme centre’ under Emmanuel Macron, recherché socialism and workers’ rights under Jean-Luc Mélenchon and a hybrid of Mussolini and Berlusconi under la famille Le Pen. Voters unenthusiastically avoided the worst, but President Macron’s celebrations have been discreet. Preternatural policy analyst and polymath though he is, Macron’s workload will be overwhelmingly to fix the economy. International policy, especially African matters, will Suddenly come a distant second. Already, European there is an ugly battle between France and the US over who elections are finances a five-country counterconsequential. terror force in the Sahel. African leaders are wisely turnVoters in both ing their eyes towards Germany, France and Europe’s strongest economy, which is organising a season of Britain went development summits this year to the polls ahead of a grand Euro-Africa conagainst a vocation in October. Chancellor Angela Merkel has promoted a backdrop of series of trade and investment terror attacks compacts with Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Tunisia, Ethiopia, and social Morocco, Rwanda and Senegal. divisions Sitting on the biggest national development fund in Europe, Germany is financing a new network of renewable power projects and proselytising on how apprenticeship programmes could speed up Africa’s industrialisation and cut joblessness. It was music to the ears of African trade negotiators when Merkel conceded in June that there were grave flaws with Europe’s Economic Partnership Agreements. Before this gets too Teutonic and starry-eyed, remember that Germany has its own elections this year. But the good news is that the main choice is between the credible Merkel and a candidate who is still more liberal and internationalist, Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz. So don’t seek a refund for that Lufthansa ticket just yet.

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Cameroon

GEORGE OSODI/PANOS-REA

Following recent protests Bamenda was cut off, internet included

Bamenda blues After years of neglect and marginalisation by the francophone majority in Cameroon, the Englishspeaking enclaves are pushing back. The government’s response to intellectual-led protests has been hardline, and in the near-deserted streets of Bamenda there are whispers of secession By Reinnier Kazé and Honoré Banda

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incelatelastyear,Mondaysin Bamenda are a ‘ghost town’ – shops are closed and most people stay at home. On a bright day in mid-June, the city stretches out in a valley amidst dull green hills in North West Region as a big white coach from Douala arrives at its outskirts. A pidgin-speaking man selling a herbal cure-all tries to whip up customer interest as the bus leans from side to side through some rough potholes. The bus passengers dutifully get out for an ID check just outside the archway welcoming you to Bamenda.

46 COUNTRY FOCUS | CAMEROON

Before the bus arrives, a woman who works in the tourism industry in Douala, who is returning to Bamenda for a funeral ceremony, offers some advice: “Do not take any photos when you see soldiers or government buildings.” She warns that travellers might need to stay until midweek because of the ghost town. As the bus descends the hills that surround Bamenda, another woman chats animatedly about the discrimination anglophones in Cameroon are subject to: “If you cannot express yourself in French, you will be crushed. When you speakEnglishinahospital,theytellyouto wait for your ‘Bamenda brother’. We just want to be respected for what we are, our culture, our language. We simply want improvements to our living conditions.” TOTAL MISMANAGEMENT

SOURCE: CAMEROON INTELLIGENCE REPORT

REINNIER KAZÉ FOR TAR

Welcome to Cameroon’s ‘anglophone crisis’. It flared up late last year when teachers and lawyers went on strike. In big, violently represse§d street demonstrations, they protested the neglect of the anglophone education system and British-inspired common law practised a small town near Bamenda who works in South West and North West regions for a non-governmental organisation under the Cameroonian constitution. in Yaoundé, says that in practice anglo“It is a case of total mismanagement,” says Paulin*, a secondary school teacher. phones are the ones who have to make “Theyaresendinganglophoneteachersto the effort and speak French, and that francophoneschoolsandviceversa.They his colleagues speak little English and are messing up the children’s futures.” do not see much reason to try. James, a For their part, lawyers are furious about taxi driver who grew up in Bamenda but did some of his schooling in Yaoundé Yaoundé appointing judges with little or and drove a taxi there too, no training in common law to judge cases. Cameroon’s says: “I never really learned I speak history as separate terFrench.I just spoketaxilanEnglish ritories once ruled by the guage to get by. I lived with anglophones too, so did British and French means not have the opportunity the constitution upholds legal and educational sysfor much French.” The late 2016 protests led tems inspired by the two different colonial legacies. to negotiations between civil society groups and But thebilingual heritage has been a difficult one for the central government in The English-speaking the government to manage. Yaoundé. Opinion varies minority make Lawyer Bernard Muna says throughouttheanglophone up about one-fifth francophone judges are regions – and also in the acof Cameroon’s 23 million people sent to Bamenda because tive diaspora – over the best solution to maintaining the “Cameroon is a corrupt region’s linguistic and cultural identities. country”, and because of bribes at the magistrates’ school. President Paul Biya’s Various groups are calling for dialogue government may sport an anglophone and negotiation over improving condiprime minister, Philémon Yang, but his tions, while others say that Cameroon should be a federal state with more presence does little to address the everyday concerns of anglophones. powers devolved to the regions and There are no official statistics availmore radical groups like the Southern able on how many Cameroonians are Cameroons National Council seeking functionally bilingual. Roger, a native of independence. While it is unclear which

20%

idea commands the most support, perhaps a political solution is not the most pressing issue. Many people said there would be no protests if the government improved people’s daily lives with better hospitals, more reliable electricity and steps to reduce the marginalisation experienced by anglophones, a minority estimated at about 20% of Cameroon’s 23 million people. A HEAVY HAND

Complicating the anglophone cause is the fact that it is fragile and loosely organised. The Cameroon Anglophone Civil SocietyConsortium,teachers’unionsand lawyers’ groups were initially involved in negotiations with the government about the problems in the legal and educational systems. But talks eventually broke down after the government arrested anglophone leaders and put them on trial in Yaoundé (see box on page 48). That move has crystallised the conflict, which shows no signs of nearing a resolution. In December, President Paul Biya spoke about the troubles, saying: “Problems must be fixed within the framework of the law and by dialogue.” A member of the religion-run education system in Bamenda says in return: “There is no dialogue.” The government does not want to be seen as appeasing protesters and

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and other parts of the country. Bryan, who sits on a stool next to a colleague and runs a clothing shop a stone’s throw away from Commercial Avenue, says that corruption and mismanagement are hurting business: “We pay taxes and for what? Corruption here is the worst, and police and other officials are here just to make money.” SECESSION MURMURS

How could the conflict be resolved? Samantha, who runs a small restaurant near the centre of town that serves eru and other traditional dishes, is categorical: “Separation would be good for me. The francophones have stolen all of our resources and treat us like slaves.” Nevertheless, though much of Cameroon’s oil is located in the Rio del Rey area of South West Region, and the area has little to show for it, secession

J U LY- AU G U S T 2 017

REINNIER KAZÉ FOR TAR

has delivered piecemeal initiatives to address some concerns. It has created a commission on bilingualism and multiculturalism, set up a common law section at the Ecole Nationale d’Administration et de la Magistrature and launched the recruitment of 1,000 bilingual teachers. But the government’s hand is heavy. Evidenceofitsno-holds-barredapproach tosnuffingoutthreats–realorperceived– can be seen in the April handing down of a 10-year prison sentence for RFI journalist Ahmed Abba for failure to denounce acts of terrorism, and the same punishmentinNovemberforthreeyoung peoplewhosharedajokeviatextmessage about Boko Haram. In response to the recent protests, the government cut off the regions’ internet from early January until mid-April. For Rebecca Enonchong, who helped run the campaign to force Yaoundé to switch it back on, it shows how out of touch the administration is. “Some people in the government believed that the internet [itself] caused the demonstrations,” she says. “But more worrying, international investors will now see Cameroon as a place that shuts down the internet. Our risk profile is automatically increased.” Beyond their purely anglophone preoccupations, residents of Bamenda criticise government in the same ways that can be heard in Yaoundé, Douala

Clockwise from left: lack of investment has left Bamenda’s roads in a poor state of repair; customers are in short supply at the market; fires at a bar on Nkwen Street and at the market are seen as a sign that those who do not respect the business boycott will be punished

remains a minority view. For now. Samantha adds: “The government sends people who only speak French to control the border with Nigeria. I go there often to buy products to sell here. If they hear you speak English, they treat you badly. If they hear pidgin, they go crazy.” Her sister Cecile is working with her now because she could not finish her last year of university courses in economics due to the recent troubles. “We love her, so we kept her at home. They are cutting off the hands of people who go to school. You can see videos of it on the internet.” James, the taxi driver, says he is perplexed by the possibilities: “I would just like everyone to work together. I am confused about it but I do not think secession would work.” He says that he wants to leave Bamenda and go back to Yaoundé because he is making less than half of the money he used to earn.

REINNIER KAZÉ FOR TAR

48 COUNTRY FOCUS | CAMEROON

The problems caused by the crisis are rippling through Bamenda in visible and less visible ways. Samuel, a university professor, says: “What is happening in the hospitals is devastating. Young girls who are not going to school are getting pregnant and ending up in hospital when they try to get rid of it on their own.” FUTURES DIMINISHED

Other Bamendayouth struggletosurvive. Two young boys dressed in light jackets look at the ground and back up against a carinneedofrepairswhenapproachedin a small passage off of Nkwen Street. “For one month now, we are panel beaters,” says a 13-year-old out-of-school boy. “I like studying math […] but there is no school because of ghost town.” Many

In state-run schools pupils were forced to sit end-of-year exams after a year without teaching

students in town are working as hawkers and looking for other ways to make money. As The Africa Report went to press, it was still not clear if there would be classes in the next school year as the troubles in Bamenda dragged on after the 2016/2017 school year was a washout. The economy of Bamenda is also in a dire state. The food market, hit by one of the fires that have plagued the city in recent months, has more sellers than customers in the middle of June. Clothes seller Bryan says that since last year “the market is very bad. Before I could not go minutes without someone coming by to ask what I am doing here.

Now I sit here for hours with nothing to do.” The receptionist at the mid-sized Clifton Hotel says that at this time of year, normally the place would be booked out but it has just five guests. Suspicions are high and people talking about the conflict often look around to see if anyone is listening. The fire at the Top Star Hotel in early June and another recent one at a bar on Nkwen Street are seen as a sign that those organising ghost towns will punish those who do not respect the business boycott. At her restaurant, Samantha says that she closes down on Mondays. “No one knows who is setting the fires. They say they are in a group called Black Spider. They will threaten you first and give you a warning or slip a note under the door. But then they will come back to burn it if you do not close down on a ghost town.” To fight the insecurity, the red berets of soldiers are now a common sight at points throughout Bamenda. Even a member of the elite Bataillon d’Intervention Rapide was seen on a night in June sitting in a noisy bar near a central transport hub in the city, dressed in fatigues and BIR baseball cap, surveying the crowd. Their presence is set to continue as the community’s resolve seems unweakened in its fight for anglophone traditions, development and better governance, in the face of the government’s game of hardball with anything that it sees as a threat to stability. *Some names have been changed to protect the identity of sources due to the current tensions.

The high price of protesting SOME 74 ANGLOPHONES ARE APPEARING before a military tribunal in Yaoundé accused of terrorism for their involvement in the crisis that has hit Cameroon’s two Anglophone regions since November 2016. They were arrested during protests after lawyers and teachers went on strike to protest threats to the legal and educational systems. They risk the death penalty due to an anti-terrorism law adopted in December 2014. Three leaders of the anglophone cause are among the accused: lawyer Félix Agbor Nkongho, professor Fontem Aforteka’a Neba and Mancho Bibixy, a.k.a. ‘BBC’, a radio host. The first two are respected intellectuals. Bibixy is an activist and was at the frontline from the beginning of the troubles. During the first protests, he appeared in a coffin, haranguing the crowd. The trials started on 23 March and are set to drag on. The accused have been imprisoned in a high-security jail in Yaoundé since January. In late April, their lawyers filed a request for their provisional release, but the tribunal rejected it.

Faced with attacks by the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram, Cameroon adopted a controversial law to use in the fight against terrorism. It defines terrorism as “any act or threat likely to cause death, put in physical jeopardy, bring about corporal or material damage, damage to natural resources, the environment or cultural heritage.” Activists say the regime is using the law to stifle all contestation. That case is not the only trial causing tensions in North West Region. Three bishops, two priests and a nun are being sued for the Catholic Church’s management of its schools during the strikes. Two senior military officers are leading a group that claims to represent the parents of students. They are seeking damages of 150bn CFA francs ($225.8m), an amount that would bankrupt the archdiocese of Bamenda several times over. The backers of the suit say that Archbishop Cornelus Fontem Esua and the others are responsible for the boycott of classes in the church-run schools and collecting fees without holding classes. R.K. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Société d’Aménagement de Douala

Cité des Cinquantenaires de Douala A symbol of Cameroon’s urban modernisation

ajor urban property developer Société d’Aménagement de Douala (SAD) is in the process of transforming the Bonapriso neighbourhood of Douala with its “Cité des Cinquantenaires de Douala” housing development project. Being built within the framework of a vast urban restructuring operation, this housing estate is a foretaste of the makeover the neighbourhood is undergoing and should serve as an inspiration to the rest of Cameroon, especially since SAD began operating nationwide in 2011.

M. Manfred Mbassa, directeur général de la SAD.

Construction of the first phase, on two hectares of land, began in November 2016. However, in total, this avant-garde housing complex will be built on 40,000 m². Four 9- to 10-storey buildings are to be built, comprising 525 high-end apartments as well as 4,242 m² of office space and 6,922 m² of commercial premises. The complex will also include infrastructure for services (crèches) and leisure (25 m junior Olympic pool). The total investment is 35 billion CFA francs, including taxes.

SAD : a market leader in housing estate development

SAD Head Office 289, rue Koloko, Bonapriso DOUALA, CAMEROUN Tel.: (+237) 699 936 688 Email : mbsad2003@yahoo.fr Email : abessam412@gmail.com

Finance Immo Afrique inc. 3737, boulevard Crémazie Est MONTRÉAL, CANADA Tel.: (+1) 514 906 1463 Tel.: (+1) 819 384 4495 Email : info@financeimmoafrique.com

Established in 1998 with an agreement between the Communauté Urbaine de Douala and the Collectivité Coutumière du Canton Bakoko (Bakoko Canton traditional council) for the purpose of undertaking large property developments, in 2005 SAD became a true property developer in order to play its part in improving access to housing, including social housing, in Cameroon

Société d’Aménagement de Douala 289, rue Koloko Bonapriso BP 4747 - DOUALA, CAMEROUN Tél. : (+237) 233 431 143 Email : mbsad2003@yahoo.fr

www.doualarchipole.com

DIFCOM/DF - PHOTOS : DR;

Douala “Cité des Cinquantenaires” Sales Offices

The financing, now finalised and approved, is being provided by SAD majority shareholder Communauté Urbaine de Douala (CUD – Douala Urban Community), SAD, Crédit Foncier du Cameroun, FEICOM and local and international banks. The project is being marketed locally (Douala and Yaoundé) and internationally (Montreal and Paris). To date, 25% of the apartments have been reserved.

50 COUNTRY FOCUS | CAMEROON

Alain Nono

General manager, mobile financial services, MTN Cameroon

In Central Africa, unlike East or West, telcoms can only offer mobile money in partnerships with banks. Within this framework MTN is focused on reaching out to the informal sector TAR: Why is MTN involved in the mobile money sector? ALAIN NONO: MTN’S global strategy is to expand financial services, and this includes money transfers. We started diversifying several years ago to create new revenue streams, as the tendency with 4G is for voice revenue to drop, especially with the arrival of over-the-top services. So for several years MTN has been looking for new revenue streams, especially in terms of digital services. We started in mobile money in 2010 and it started off very slowly as it was something new for us. We have been sharing our experience with other operations, and things havereallybeenpickingupoverthe past two years. It is not something we did on our own but within the regulatory framework. Regulations are tight in Cameroon and within the Communauté Economique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale. The goal is to bring money from the informal sector into the formal sector. The goal is not to compete with the banks, as the banks are our partners. We are doing what the banks have not yet done, which is to turn to informal or unbanked customers.

The goal is not to compete with the banks What part of your business does mobile money represent? I am not going to give you specific statistics because of confidentiality. What I can say is that there has been significant growth in revenue tied to mobile money over the past year […]. We have more than 12,000 mobile-money agents who have an active account […]. We have 10 million clients and today they have 3.6 million mobile-money wallets. What I can say is that we estimate that, [measured] over a three-month period, we are on equal footing with our principal competitor in the market [Orange Cameroon]. There have been some recent polemicsaboutthemanagement of the sector, and the telecommunications ministry said it is going to look at mobile-money

“We are doing what the banks have not yet done, which is to turn to unbanked customers” regulations again. Do you expect any changes? I think journalists are the ones launching the polemics to sell papers. […] The regulations are firm and clear and spell out what transactions are allowed. The client can make deposits, withdrawals, payments and transfers from one client to another. And all of those transactions are done under the supervision of the mobile firm’s banking partner. At this level, there are absolutely

no regulatory problems. So when we see in the papers or hear in the streets that we are doing an unregulated activity, it is not true. Orange Cameroon has introduced a Visa card for its mobilemoney clients. Are you thinking of similar innovations? With a local bank we are introducing a solution that allows for withdrawals without a card. You can go to any cash point and withdraw money by validating it with your mobile phone. Today we are usingmobilephonestomakesome payments at petrol stations and we are doing something similar as a pilotforsomeshops. Wewouldlike to embrace the broader spectrum of financial services […]. In terms of usage, topping up your account is one of the principal uses of the mobile wallet in Cameroon. That is followed in terms of popularity by money transfers and payments for goods and services. In more developed mobilemoney markets, accounts are being used to build up credit profiles and offer services like loans. Is that possible in Cameroon? We can’t exclude investigating such services in the future. Some of our operations provide such services […] but always in partnership with financial institutions. In East or West Africa, regulations are less restrictive, and mobile operators are allowed to emit mobile money themselves. Interview by Reinnier Kazé in Douala and Marshall Van Valen

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Transforming agriculture from grass roots to ingredients

From rice farming in Nigeria to cocoa and cashews in Côte d’Ivoire, Olam has been committed to Africa for nearly 30 years. We have invested S$1.89 billion and built a network of 2.5 million smallholders across 25 countries who supply us with products like cotton, sesame and coffee. Our 31 processing sites are spread across the continent and allow us to transform our crops into key ingredients used in both local and international products. We provide commercial bakers with flour and have our own well-known food brands such as Tasty Tom, Royal Aroma rice, King Crackers, Mama Gold, BUA pasta and Dona palm oil. 21,000 direct employees and 26,000 seasonal contract workers help us to deliver our goals. They are the catalyst for our success and keep us believing in Africa’s potential.

Olam – born in Africa, believing in Africa. @Olam @olam_international olamgroup.com

52 COUNTRY FOCUS | CAMEROON

In Douala, distribution company Eneo is piloting a programme for the use of prepayment meters

infrastructure “is no longer able to perform adequately during the dry season.” It produces about two-thirds of its 72MW production capacity during that time of the year. The government says that it is looking to raise 100bn CFA francs ($170.7m) to rehabilitate the dam. PLANS FOR SOLAR

NICOLAS EYIDI FOR JA

Plans are underway to boost production in the north. Backed with a 182bn CFA franc loan from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a new 75MW dam is being built in Warak. Eneo plans to add an additional 10MW to the grid with a thermal power plant in Maroua that should be operational in July and is developing 35MW of solar ELECTRICITY capacity that should come online by 2019. An Eneo spokesman tells The Africa Report: “In the Grand Nord, solar is a good opportunity to improve supply in the face of droughts that hurt Weak investment, ageing infrastructure and hydroelectric production.” a reliance on hydropower have contributed to recent Anarchic installations are a problem across the country, and in 2016, Eneo power cuts, but new projects are on the horizon had to repair and replace some 67,000 electricity poles. The company says that t is very hard to live without light,” Currently, electricity provision fraudulent connections to the grid lead to problems are the most pronounced in losses of “more than 30bn CFA francs per explains Oumarou, who lives in the town of Mozogo in the Extrêmeyear”. Collecting debts is also a challenge, northern Cameroon, and there are also serious deficits in the south. During especially with state-owned companies Nord Region. For a year, the inhabitants and the government administrations. the dry season – from December to of this isolated area did not have electricEneo is now piloting a programme ity due to the toppling of some electricity July – weak rains mean that there are poles in April 2016. “We were cut off from called Smart Eneo in Douala for the lower levels of hydroelectricity prouse of prepayment meters. the world – no radio, no television,” says duction. Until May, every Oumarou after electricity was restored Eneo bought distribution household in the north about two months ago. concession from the USexperienced an average While Cameroon is estimated to have of three load-shedding cuts based AES in 2014 and per week. “We suffered a sub-Saharan Africa's second-largest pothe following year agreed lot because of this situatential for hydropower, it still struggles to a 900bn CFA programme for the sector to cover 2015 provide electricity due to a lack of investtion. I am very far behind to 2031. The company is ment and the age of some existing plants in my work,” explains Joël, and other infrastructure. According to now in talks to extend its a resident of Maroua in the official statistics, electricity coverage is Extrême-Nord Region. concession, which is set to In early June, electricexpire in 2021. about 53.7% of the population. And that Estimated investments In the meantime, the figure hides a number of disparities, as ity distribution company required to ensure that the Agence de Régulation du Secteur de Eneo – which is owned population is waiting for 75% of Cameroon’s l'Electricité (ARSEL) says that only 5% by UK-based investor population have access new projects to deliver. The to electricity by 2023. of rural areas have access to the grid. 200MW Memve'ele dam Actis – announced that in southern Cameroon As of 2016, the country had about a it would be reducing the dozen large and medium-sized generis due to come online before the end planned cuts to once per week. Later ation plants and about 20 smaller ones, of the year. Construction of the €1bn in the month, it said that interruptions with a combined capacity of 1,292MW. to supplies had ended, at least until the ($1.1bn) 420MW Nachtigal dam is due next dry season. to commence in late 2017 or early 2018 To reach a level of 75% access to electricity, the country needs 3,000MW. That Households in the north are linked with the backing of Electricité de France, is the government's target for 2023, rethe World Bank and the government. to a 35-year-old dam in Lagdo. Eneo Reinnier Kazé in Yaoundé quiring investments estimated at $6.3bn. tells The Africa Report that this old

Trying to keep the lights on

“

SOURCE: ARSEL

$6.3bn

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PEOPLE TO WATCH

Young Cameroonians make their mark A veteran president doesn’t stop the youthful energy of Cameroon’s new faces in the worlds of music, tech, sport and even politics Marshall Van Valen MUSIC

FOOTBALL

PA IMAGES/ICON SPORT

Christian Bassogog A rising star The 21-year-old attacking midfielder was named best player in the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations (ACN) won by Cameroon in February. Until then, he had been playing for Danish club AaB Fodbold. He parlayed his ACN success into a move to the Chinese Super League team Henan Jianye and plans to up his skill levels amidst higher competition. He began his career in the US in 2015.

TECH

Olivier Madiba Sharing the wealth of knowledge The founder of Kiro’o Games wants to share his start-up success with other entrepreneurs. With money transfer company Express Union he launched Kiro’o Rebuntu in June to train start-ups in how to raise money – with the goal of helping 100,000.

The 27-year-old singer’s latest hit ‘Calée’, a song about falling in love, has recorded more than 2.5m hits on YouTube since it was first released in March. It became the number one video on music channel Trace Urban in June. Daphne (the name she performs under) says she was driven to write the song because women often find it difficult to express their feelings to men. Daphné launched a first mini album called Reflection in 2015 and is part of a bigger wave of Anglophone Cameroonian artists hitting the big time on the pop music scene. Born in Cameroon’s South West Province, Daphne is a student of psychology at the University of Buea. She told local media that her strategy is “work hard and play hard”.

SAMI HEISKANEN

Daphne Njie Work hard and play hard

POLITICS

Serge Espoir Matomba Early out of the gate As a municipal councillor in Douala, Matomba is critical of the regime’s governance. The young leader is one of the first politicians to make his intentions clear for the presidential race of 2018. His chances of winning are slim, as the dominant RDPC is gearing up for 84-year-old President Paul Biya to run again, but Matomba is making a bigger name for himself in local and national politics through the Peuple Uni pour la Rénovation Sociale.

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41ST ANNUAL WORLD TOURISM CONFERENCE

Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) and Africa Travel Association (ATA) are proud to present the 41st Annual World Tourism Conference in Kigali, Rwanda.

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56 COUNTRY FOCUS | CAMEROON

CEMENT

Ready, get set, go regional

Cement producers are in intense competition as Cameroon becomes a growing base for companies looking to access landlocked neighbours

Dangote Cement went from zero to 50% market share in Cameroon in just one year, with its Douala plant

to build a 1m-tonne plant in Douala, where most of the other plants operate. If all of the projects come to fruition, Camerooncouldbeproducing9mtonnes perannuminafewyears’timeandexportingtoneighbouringcountriessuchasChad and the Central African Republic. That would be a big boost for regional trade, as the CEMAC lags behind other African regionalorganisations,withintra-regional trade accounting for less than 2% of total trade. Businesses have long complained that weak infrastructure and a lack of intergovernmental cooperation have held back trade between Central African countries.Cementpricesaremuchhigher in landlocked Central African countries Annual production capacity of Cameroon’s main cement producers (million tonnes)

1.6

Cimencam SOURCE: CAMEROON MINES MINISTRY

ameroon’sgeographyanditsrole intheCommunautéEconomique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale (CEMAC) are benefiting the country’s cement sector. It has been attracting new commitments which could help turn the country into a sizeable exporter within the next two years. This could also be a boon for Cameroonian consumers, although the end of LafargeHolcimowned Cimencam’s monopoly a few years ago has not led to a significant drop in retail prices. Cement firms have been taking advantage of a 2013 law on private investment that includes tax and other exemptions during the set-up and operational periods. After severe cement shortages were recorded in 2008, the government has been looking to strengthen local production and diversify investors in the sector. In the past three years, three new cement plants have opened in Cameroon. Moroccan-owned Ciments d’Afrique (Cimaf ) got started in early 2014, while Nigeria’s Dangote Cement began operations in April 2015 and Turkish-Cameroonian joint venture Medcem followed in June 2015. All of Cameroon’s four main producers have plans to expand their production in the coming years. Cimencam, which has operated in the country since 1963, began construction of a plant with the capacity to produce 500,000tn per annum at Nomayos, outside of Yaoundé, in March of this year. Cimaf Cameroun, owned by Moroccan construction company Addoha, is set to triple its production capacity of 500,0000tn per year by 2018. Market leader Dangote Cement Cameroon is working on a new plant in Yaoundé (see interview). And finally, Turkish-backed Medcem is working on increasing the capacity of its plant from 600,000tn to 1m tonnes. Newcomer Mira Cement is also talking up its plans

1.5

Dangote

Medcem

Cimaf

0.6

0.5

like Chad, where a 50kg sack of cement sold for 11,000 CFA francs ($18.8) in 2016. AsCameroonhasnocommerciallimestone mines to provide an important raw material – clinker – cement producers have to import it. And as the government is struggling to raise revenue amidst lower commodity prices and the fight against the Boko Haram Islamist militants, Yaoundé has decided to double duties on clinker imports to 10% this year. HIGHER TAXES, HIGHER PRICES

Companies say that moves like these will keep prices higher for consumers. Cimaf chief executive Abdeladim Arnous told local media in June: “Investors in Cameroon are between a rock and a hard place. You have to pay more taxes, you have to pay more customs duties, you have to drop prices. It is an extremely complex equation.” Prices tend to fluctuate, and a 50kg sack of Cimencap CPJ35 cement was selling for 4,200 CFA francs ($7.17) in Douala in June, representing a 200 CFA franc rise on recent prices. For about a decade, the government has been looking for a developer for the limestone depositat Mintom, in southern Cameroon. It has estimated reserves of 540m cubic metres, and the mines ministry says that the company Cageme

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CAMEROON | COUNTRY FOCUS 57

Paavo Wiro

Country manager, Dangote Cement Cameroon

REINNIER KAZÉ FOR TAR

“The hardest part is to have the land”

has the exploration rights to the property. Industry sources say that much of the limestone is covered in water, making the launch of operations complicated. If more studies show that production is feasible, it would lead to lower prices for locally produced cement. President Paul Biya’s government has gradually been pushing the development of grands projets like dams, stadiums for the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations football tournament and social housing projects, which should be a boon for the construction sector. Dangote Cement Cameroon country manager Paavo Wiro tells The Africa Report: “The country has a lot of projects but they have been very, very late becausesomeprojectshavebeendelayed seven or 10 years. And now it is coming out progressively, so that is very good.” While the government estimates that construction will contribute 0.4% to economic growth for each of the next three years due to an uptick in activity, finding responsible companies continues to be difficult. In 2016, the public works ministry blacklisted 122 firms from bidding for government contracts for two years because of their failure to respect contractual details. Reinnier Kazé in Douala and Marshall Van Valen

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TAR: What challenges have you In this country, it is very tricky. For faced in setting up? the same land, you have maybe three The installation here started in 2012 or four official owners […]. With these as a construction project, and because delays, we could be operational in late of difficulties with the soil we had to 2018. Our competitors – or, as we say, build pillars and it took us some more our colleagues – are planning their own time. In April 2015, the construction expansions, and in two years’ time was officially finished. […] We started we could be having 7m tonnes or more. production progressively but went very The market is not growing so fast quickly. We started with a 0% market and we think it could be something like share and in April 2016 we overpassed 5-8% per year. The 1.5m tonnes is a 50% of the market share in the country. theoretical capacity and I would say we Our competitor, Lafarge, which has a are producing and selling 1.3m tonnes. very good brand name, has been here for 50 years as a monopoly but now Cement producers have to import they have about 30%. raw materials, there is an energy We have a capacity of 1.5m tonnes deficit and the market is already per annum […]. Today we have more saturated, so what is the strategy or less 700 people here and I of companies seeking to boost am very proud to say they are 99% production? Cameroonians. If you take the cement We have started to export already. plant plus the jetty, it is an investment We have built one warehouse on the of more than $200m. We have the border areas and we will have maybe most modern machines, which are a couple of others. We have already German ones and they are not so very opened a couple of markets cheap. Our market share is floating in neighbouring countries. between 47-50%, and we are only “We have more or less 700 making one product. people here and I’m proud With the four to say 99% are Cameroonians” producers, we have about 4m tonnes of capacity. We asked the government What is your client base like? to stop imports of cement in January Today, we have three distribution 2016 and now we are self-sufficient channels. The main one is the in cement production. wholesalers. We are a young company The market is not so huge […] and have not had time to develop […] we say the realistic number is 2.8m and they represent 80% of sales. tonnes with maybe 200,000tn of The other channel is the constructors, flexibility for government projects. the project guys. We were handicapped So it means we have 1m tonnes before because we did not have bulk of overcapacity already. So that trucks. We have 200 of our own trucks is not enough because we are here that were imported from Nigeria, planning to open our new cement representing 20% of all the distribution plant in Yaoundé with more or less we are making. And now we have our the same capacity, maybe 1m tonnes. first 10 bulk trucks. The third channel is the export channel, and we started that How advanced is the Yaoundé three weeks ago. […] The ideal situation project? would be 55-60% distributors and the It started about a year ago. But the rest split by constructors and export. hardest part is to have officially the land Interview by Reinnier Kazé in Douala and Marshall Van Valen and to know who are the land owners.

LABORATOIRES BIOPHARMA

A COSMETICS GIANT IN AFRICA Sub-Saharan Africa is increasingly becoming an economic bonanza for the cosmetics market. Recent indicators record growth of between 8% and 10%, well above the 4% trend for the worldwide sector as a whole. This presents a real opportunity for local industries to deploy a strategy aimed at entering and conquering this market. One of these is Laboratoires Biopharma, the ambitious Cameroonian company based in Douala and which, for more than 15 years, has been mapping out its route towards becoming the African giant.

A CORE BUSINESS: BEAUTY Biopharma distinguishes itself today through the quality of the products it provides to an ever more loyal clientele. It boasts a portfolio of three baby product brands, along with twenty other ranges, produced to international standards and adapted to the needs of all its consumers. With constantly renewed passion, as well as a real desire to revolutionise the world of beauty in Africa, Laboratoires Biopharma has chosen to make innovation the focus of its development strategy.

THE INNOVATION PACT Throughout all these years of continuous improvement, the company has focused on research in order to better understand market needs and provide a suitable solution. The result is diversified products, sustained investment and multidisciplinary teams working to improve a product range positioned to be the best in terms of satisfaction and performance. Innovation is the key to success in this process, demanding an approach that keeps the company one step ahead of the competition. Laboratoires Biopharma has some surprises in the pipeline, with increasingly enriched products and original formulations.

THE AFRICAN CHALLENGE Laboratoires Biopharma has an extensive and rapidly growing presence across Africa. Its top brands, such as Balneo, Biopur, Talangai and Moby BĂŠbĂŠ are distributed in several countries throughout Central, Southern and West Africa and have become household products used daily in some 20 countries on the continent. And the adventure continues...

COVERED AREAS

+15

years of existence

AREAS TO BE COVERED BY 2020

50%

coverage of the continent

+20

Top Brands

GROWTH OF LABORATOIRES BIOPHARMA Founded in 2001, this company has over 350 employees to date. It has won numerous awards and acquired distinctions. This international recognition has contributed to strengthening its renown.

2001

FOUNDING OF LABORATOIRES BIOPHARMA

Objective: Offer all Cameroonians affordable, quality beauty products

2005

WINNER OF THE GRAND PRIX FOR BEST COMPANY AND SME/SMI

Entered Ivorian and Gabonese markets

Acquired first packaging machinery

2007

LAUNCH OF MOBY BEBE, THE FIRST BABYCARE RANGE

Acquired plastics production plant for packaging

2009

WINNER OF THE GRAND PRIX FOR BEST COSMETICS INDUSTRY IN CENTRAL AFRICA

2010

WINNER OF THE PRIQUA GOLD OSCAR FOR THE COSMETICS INDUSTRY

Entered Nigerian and Congolese Markets

ADVERTORIAL

Mr. Francis Nana Djomou,CEO, LES LABORATOIRES BIOPHARMA Today, with Biopharma’s success, you are planning to strengthen your presence abroad. What is your plan? As an entrepreneur, I can’t set a limit at this time, when I’m planning to expand my company’s scale of impact. It is open to new horizons, to entering new markets... Having maintained the motivation that has inspired us over the past 15 years – that of being able to offer all Africans excellent quality products specifically dedicated to their skins –we are currently focusing on making them accessible to everyone’s budgets. We need to get a foot into the niche markets we have explored. This can only be achieved by building production units in high potential countries such as Nigeria, Angola or Côte d’Ivoire, countries that offer real opportunities for growth that we must embrace fully. What are your tools for this expansion operation? I have always believed that our strength lies in our vision of improvement, which is supported by our many commitments to going higher and further. With 15 years of continuous development in the field of cosme-

tics, our solid experience in this business is built on our knowledge of the markets and a perfect mastering of our environment. This strength is bolstered by quality human resources, illustrated by a team of young, dynamic and enthusiastic employees in whom I aim to foster a sense of fulfillment through a managerial strategy based on merit, fairness and excellence. What is this emphasis on innovation all about? It is important to note that this is the pillar of our industrial master plan. Currently, in Douala, we have production plants with high operating capacity. Our Research & Development department, which guarantees the efficiency of production in terms of process and formulation innovation, also ensures a constant monitoring of the sector, in order to remain at the forefront of biotechnological breakthroughs, which in turn allows us to differentiate our offer and create more value for the consumer. Added to this is a skilled workforce that has continuous training in new maintenance and quality control techniques. The industrial and logistical organisation of these innovation-based plants greatly increases the ability of our company to respond to the specific demands of the markets.

We would love to know more about the other aspects of your business expansion… The goal of our expansion across Africa makes absolute sense. Firstly, it’s an opportunity for Biopharma to immerse itself in the specifics of African countries other than Cameroon. Diversity and variety are an enormous source of wealth on which the company can capitalise. Then, when setting up abroad, we will use the local labour force to build the planned production plants, which represents a significant contribution to the economy of the host countries. There will also be sharing of experience and, in particular, skills transfer. Ideally, the footprint left by the consumer benefits will, in the long term, help us build a real African archetype in terms of the cosmetics industry. You seem to be so passionate about this international expansion. How far do you intend to go? Here I must refer to my first comments in this interview. We will not set any limits. Laboratoires Biopharma’s primary mission, as defined in the concept “The Soul of Black Beauty is Back” is to provide the most optimal solutions to the needs of black and dark skin. Of course, it is important to carry this expertise as far as our target requires us to and as far as our capabilities allow. Interview by Sophie Kumba in Douala

2014

LAUNCH OF BALNEO MOISTURISER RANGE FOR YOUNG SKINS

Objective: Reach young, dynamic executives and offer them suitable products

2015

FIRST EDITION OF THE MISS BIOPHARMA NATIONAL BEAUTY CONTEST

2017

NEW LABORATOIRES BIOPHARMA VISION “THE SOUL OF BLACK BEAUTY IS BACK”

www.laboratoires-biopharma.com

The next

billion

Google knows the power of round numbers: as the American tech pioneer marks 10 years in Africa it also hit 1 million participants in its Digital Skills for Africa programme. The Africa Report examines why training is a key strategy for reeling in new continental internauts

utside a community centre just south of Nairobi, groups of young Kenyans gather around speakers blasting Bongo music as they chat and check their phones. About 120 unemployed twenty-somethings, many of them university graduates, are waiting to begin a training session sponsored by Google. “We’re teaching them how to use Google products and howtobuildtheironlinepresence,” says Ted Odera, 25, a digital skills

trainer. “Some of the students want to build a brand, others want to get a job,” he says. Odera estimates that he has trained about 8,000 students in the past year. John Mwangi, 24, an unemployed graduate from Kiserian, a town 30km from Nairobi, says he received a text message urging him to go to the training because he could earn up to $200 a day doing online jobs. “In Kenya, the information and communication technology (ICT) sector is growing,” he says. “I want to get a job.”

Google’s parent company Alphabet, which raked in $90.3bn in revenue last year, sponsored this training session as part of its strategy to expand the company’s presence on the continent. It has set an ambitious target to attract one billion new internet users by 2020, and the race is on to hook new internauts on Google’s services, which include email, messaging and web searches. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regionsmostripeforattractingnew users. Google estimates

ANTOINE MOREAU DUSAULT FOR TAR

By Mark Anderson in Kajiado and Johannesburg

62 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

there will be 500 million internet users in Africa by 2020. The race is on to capture as many of these new users as possible. Digital training programmes, a crucial part of Google’s strategy, help to fix the continent’s “basic digital literacy problem”, according to Luke Mckend, Google’s country director for South Africa. The vast majority of African internet users are using smartphones, meaning they may not be getting as much from the internet as they could be. BUILDING AN ECOSYSTEM

The company’s push to enter emerging markets reflects increasing competition with other tech giants, such as Facebook (see TAR85, Nov. 2016). Facebook has partnered with hardware manufacturers Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung and MediaTek and software company Opera to roll out its programme, Internet.org, which allows users in developing countries to access a handful of websites from their phones at no datacharge,viatheFreeBasicsapp. So far the programme has attracted 40 million users. Google says it is not worried. “We believe that a stronger internet with more

players is good for us. It’s good for growth in jobs in Africa, and a strong ecosystem is good for Google’s business,” says Caroline Atkinson, Google’s head of global policy. “Our strategy to make money in Africa is the same as our strategy anywhere.” Google has dominated the websearch business in many parts of the world. The company’s Gmail service has more than 1 billion active monthly users. In the US, more than 34bn Google searches are carried out across all platforms every month, according to figures from the company. But growth is starting to plateau. As Google solidifies its presence in established markets, it is looking for new opportunities elsewhere. While Google is estimated to control about 75% of the US market for web searches, it controls just 10% in China, where competitor Baidu is popular. Analysts agree that the time has come for Google to look to emerging markets. “Given how high internet penetration and availability are now in mature markets, Google’s main focus, obviously, has to be emerging markets,” says Jan Dawson, chief

$90.27bn Revenue made by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, in 2016, up from $74.99bn in 2015 SOURCE: ALPHABET

analyst at Jackdaw Research. “For both Google and Facebook, the priority at this point is saying: ‘Well howcanwegetmorepeopleonline and what’s the best way to do that? And ideally, what’s the best way to do it in such a way that those people end up using our services as well at the end of the day?” Google’s strategy to attract new African users is centred around training young people, building new infrastructure and trying to lower the cost of entry-level smartphones. With hubs in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, Google is in the process of training 1 million young people to use its products.

Luke Mckend

Country director, Google South Africa

Making information universally accessible TAR: What are the pillars of Google’s expansion strategy on the continent? Google’s business is predicated on its original mission, which is to provide relevant information to people as and when they need it, to organise the world’s information and make it universally accessible. But in South Africa and the rest of Africa, obviously there are a whole bunch of infrastructural challenges, there are pricing issues around devices and data.

Would you say Google’s main goal in Africa is to grow its audience? So that’s probably the most important thing, but let’s take one step beyond that. One of the things that we’re also saying is that growing audiences is important but there is a basic digital literacy problem. What’s happening in Africa is that people are going straight to mobile phones, and it’s not the best experience. It’s not as intuitive as it could be. So you actually find that there’s a lot of work

to be done around basic digital literacy skills. We’ve launched a programme last year to address this. We made a commitment to train one million Africans face-to-face. Who do you see as your biggest competitors on the continent? People who spend a lot of time online are going to be doing lots of different types of things – whether it’s watching videos, messaging, social media – and it’s not [only] about that online experience:

people watch terrestrial television. So if you think about the entire media landscape, it’s a highly competitive landscape with everyone competing for the time and attention that is limited to the 24 hours you have in a day. From that perspective, I think the competitive environment is actually very rich. People will still read a newspaper in a lot of environments; in South Africa radio is an old-fashioned medium and it’s actually growing very fast. Interview by M.A.

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COMPANIES & MARKETS | BUSINESS 63

The company sees huge opportunities to ride the waves made by Africa’s mobile revolution. “If you look at our next billion user initiative, which is largely focused on Asia and India, I think one of the most interesting things for us to think about is how we’re going to address an entirely new swathe of users who are mobile first […] and how do we address the use case [how systems connect actor to goal] for that kind of user in emerging markets,” says Mckend. “And those emerging markets are largely Africa, Asia, India, to some extent Brazil, some South America,” he adds. •

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TRADING PRIVACY FOR JOBS

93.5

34.8

20.2

Morocco

MOBILE FIRST

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An estimated 90% of Africa’s internet users are on mobile, according to Google. But just 12% of Africans have access to a smartphone, compared to 57% of Americans, according to the company. That makes driving down the cost of smartphones crucial to the company’s strategy to grow the number of users on the continent. Google’s recent battles with tax authorities in Europe will be cause for concern for many African governments.IntheUK,politicians have called for the company to pay its “fair share” of corporate tax after it was sharply criticised for

15.1 Egypt

Algeria

10.9

7.9 Ghana

Sudan Nigeria

13 Uganda

Top 10 African countries by internet users

as of 31 March 2017 (millions)

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37.7

28.6

South Africa

11.5 Ethiopia

Kenya SOURCE: INTERNET WORLD STATS

It will also lay thousands of kilometres of fibre-optic cable and form partnerships with telecoms companies to help drive down the cost of entry-level smartphones, Google executives say. Mckend underscores the importance of advertising in the company’s strategy on the continent: “Our biggest source of revenue is largely advertising,” he says. “If you run a search for car insurance in South Africa, we will try and assess your intent by looking at the actual term that you used. If you are a logged-in user we might look at the searches that you’ve conducted previously and we will use all of those signals to deliver an appropriate result, whether it’s an ad or whether it’s an organic result [a non-paid-for result that appears because of its relevance to search terms]. That’s exactly the same way that Google works everywhere else in the world.”

paying just $47m in taxes on sales of $7.7bn. A Google spokesman said: “As an international business, we pay the majority of our taxes in our home country, as well as all the taxes due in the UK.” Analysts say governments in emerging markets will be watching this saga closely. “African countries are starting to scrutinise the financial operations of major players with much greater intensity, particularly in telecom and connectivity sectors,” says research analyst Jon Tullett. “I haven’t seen any action directed against Google yet, but the company is certainly watching the movements of regulatory bodies very closely.” Another sticking point for many is the issue of online privacy. Google insists that user data is anonymised and kept safe from prying eyes, but a series of recent high-profile data breaches have thrown online security and privacy into the spotlight. “Privacy is obviously a huge issue with any ad-based business, […] the idea that Google is keeping track of all your activities across its different services and building a profile on you which is then used to sell you advertising,” says Dawson, the analyst. “There’s obviously a lot of concern about that in certain quarters – at least certainly in Europe, [where] they tend to be more concerned about privacy things than here in the US.” But governments also want ICT sector jobs, and some are teaming up with Google to carry out training programmes. “We are partnering with Google in creating awareness about online jobs,” says Haron Kertich, an ICT officer at Kenya’s ministry of public service, youth and gender affairs. The government is trying to boost the number of workers in the online sector to 1 million, up from its current level of 40,000. Back outside the community centre in Kajiado, Mwangi, the student, says he appreciates the training that Google has given him. But he sees through their strategy. “For them, it’s business,” he says. “It’s all about having more users.”

64 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

TELECOMS

The curious fall of Etisalat Nigeria The fortunes of Etisalat Nigeria after it defaulted on repayment of a $1.2bn loan raise questions on how a supposedly thriving company could have failed so spectacularly

n the morning of 20 June the rumours were finally confirmed by a letter from the Etisalat Group of the United Arab Emirates, delivered to the Abu Dhabi Securities and Exchange Commission. The letter, signed by Chief financial officer Serkan Okandan, was in the usual dry, technocratic style of financial reporting: ‘Further to our announcement dated 12 February, 2017, Emirates Telecommunications Group Company PJSC, “Etisalat Group” would like to inform you […]’. But it contained an explosive announcement. A consortium of 13 Nigerian banks was taking over the Etisalat Group’s local affiliate in Nigeria, Emerging Markets Telecommunications Services (EMTS), which is known as Etisalat Nigeria, after it defaulted on a $1.2bn loan. It was the end of an extraordinary corporate journey which had begun a decade earlier when, in January 2007, the government of Nigeria awarded the Unified Access Service Licence to the Mubadala Development Company of Abu Dhabi (which owns Etisalat). Nigeria deregulated its telecoms industry in 2001. RISE IN BAD LOANS

And it leaves more questions than it does answers. Many of them centre around the management of Etisalat Nigeria’s chairman, the influential Nigerian businessman Hakeem Belo-Osagie. A former chairman of the United Bank for Africa, through his holding companies, MyaCynth and Premium Telecommunications Holdings, Belo-Osagie controlled a stake in Etisalat Nigeria, alongside the Gulf holding company. The primary question is: how come Etisalat Nigeria was struggling? The company was believed

to have some of the highest margins in the industry, and had just two years before made $400m by selling towers to a local private equity company. Certainly, no one saw this coming, despite the recent economic pinch caused by the oil price drop. Nigerian banks have been forced to restructure their loans to businesses across various sectors, particularly energy, to forestall a sharper rise in the rate of bad loans. But little thought was given to the telecoms sector as the operators were believed to be capable of weathering the downturn. This was why the banks did not make any provision for the loan to Etisalat says Ugo Obi-Chukwu, an accountant and financial analyst and founder of Nairametrics, a leading business news blog in Nigeria: no one anticipated that Etisalat would be unable to meet its obligation. “Typically banks will take provisions when they suspect that a borrower is going to default, but they didn’t take any provision [on Etisalat], none at all. So it was quite surprising”, says Obi-Chukwu. Ironically, when Etisalat Nigeria launched in 2008, analysts were queuing up to predict its downfall. Its competitors – the likes of MTN, Airtel and Globacom – had been operating for a number of years before it came onto the scene. The market had effectively coalesced around these three operators, who had built out vast networks across the country and deployed various strategies to acquire and maintain a share of the market. It was thought that Etisalat had little chance of becoming a major player in the industry. But the experts turned out to be wrong. Etisalat performed remarkably well following its launch in October 2008, and

Etisalat staff in 2013 – bored, but blissfully unaware that the company had taken out a loan that would cause it to self-destruct

went on to reach the milestone of 1 million subscribers just eight months later. Fuelled by the expertise of its foreign parent and the savvy of its chairman, Etisalat grew at rocket speed and soon became recognised as the operator with the best quality of service in Nigeria. Belo-Osagie had recruited a stellar team led by Steven Evans, a former CEO of the UK’s BT Mobile. TRAWLER EFFECT

Over the following years, as rival smaller operators folded Etisalat snapped up their subscribers. By 2011, the company had 12 million subscribers, cementing its status as the fourth largest operator.

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Etisalat Nigeria revenue -14% SOURCE: ETISALAT

As the landscape continued to shift under technological and operational pressures, Etisalat approached a consortium of banks in 2013 to grant it the $1.2bn loan to enable it refinance an existing obligation worth $650 million and fund an upgrade of its network. The loan was granted and the company carried on with its business having believed to have become profitable by then. But as the high cost of operations continued to exert pressure on their operations, Nigerian telecoms operators moved to cut costs and began selling their towers, which accounted for a high portion of their operating costs. Etisalat sold 2,691 towers to IHS Towers, a mobile telecommunications infrastructure company, in 2015. Reuters estimated the deal to have been worth $400 million, which is equivalent to what Mubadala had paid the Nigerian government for the licence. Then came the economic slowdown in Nigeria due to the

$1.15bn

$928m

2015

2016

collapse of oil prices in late 2014. The naira came under intense pressure as the country’s supply of foreign exchange declined sharply; this put a squeeze on the banking sector and led to a rise in the rate of bad loans. In response to this pressure on the currency, the Central Bank of Nigeria devalued the naira by around 50% in June 2016. This hit Etisalat’s loan obligation as it effectively meant a significant increase in the naira value of the loan. Despite attempted resolutions with the bank, ultimately the pace of repayments outstripped

WHO WILL BUY?

$1.2bn Total loan facility (worth around N541.8bn at the time) obtained by Etisalat Nigeria in 2013 to finance network rehabilitation and expansion of its operational base

SUNDAY ALAMBA/AP/SIPA

SOURCE: ETISALAT

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Etisalat Nigeria’s ability to pay – and the banks have ended up holding the company. Herbert Wigwe, CEO of Access Bank plc, one of the 13 lenders, asserts that the banks have no intention of running the company, but simply want to get back the funds they had lent, which were sourced from depositors’ funds. “We don’t want to be equity holders; we would rather be paid out,” Wigwe says. Given that the banks have assumed control of the company, the logical conclusion that would lead to the recovery of their funds would be to sell it to a buyer who would be interested in taking on the debt-laden asset. Wigwe implies that this is the likely course to be pursued by the banks, as the company remains an attractive proposition with over 20 million subscribers. “Would we be able to find a buyer for that kind of asset? The answer is absolutely yes,” he says. Nevertheless, the Central Bank of Nigeria has asked the banks to maintain the status quo and seek approval from it before taking any further action on the matter. This move is believed to stem from the view of the telecom regulator that the company is systemically important to the national economy. Finding a new buyer for Etisalat Nigeria will take a while, believes Obi-Chukwu, because whoever now buys the asset will want answers to those questions about how the company went under. Some analysts believe Etisalat, which was thought to have the highest average revenue per user (ARPU) in the industry, should not have had such problems, implying the possibility of more signficant governance issues. Hence the ball is now in the court of the banks, the regulators and prospective owners to oversee the rise of a new operator from the ashes of the dead partnership. As for Mubadala and Belo-Osagie, it seems their extraordinary journey has come to a sorry end. Charles Idem in Lagos

Kosmos Energy’s drillship the Atwood Achiever off the coast of Senegal

OIL AND GAS

Black bonanza

Senegal is buzzing with excitement around recent oil and gas discoveries. Now comes the challenge of building an oil and gas industry that will benefit all

company CNOOC also secured a permit for the AGC Profond block, located in the offshore joint development zone between Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. The country’s estimated oil reserves have been revised upwards to 473m barrels of crude oil. Most of the hydrocarbon reserves that have been discovered in the region are deepwater gas reserves. The Greater Tortue deposit is the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserve in West Africa, with an

Top crude-oil-producing countries in Africa in May 2017, tb/d*

SOURCE: OPEC, BASED ON SECONDARY SOURCES

enegal is the latest country to join Africa’s league of oil prospectors. Since 2014, international companies have made scores of oil and gas discoveries in Teranga, where up until now phosphate was the best-known natural resource. The companies behind these discoveries are small explorers from the UK and the US. Among them are Texas-based Kosmos Energy, which discovered a large natural gas deposit under the deep waters offshore Mauritania and Senegal, and UK-listed Cairn Energy, which operatesthreeoffshoreexploration blocks – Sangomar Deep, Rufisque Offshore and Sangomar Offshore. The arrival of oil majors over the past few months is a sign of the country’s vast oil potential. In early May, French giant Total settled on the Rufisque Offshore Profond block and British company BP teamed up with Kosmos in December 2016 to develop the Greater Tortue Complex. In March, Chinese state-owned

1,680

Nigeria

1,613

Angola

1,059

Algeria

730

Libya Gabon

204

* tb/d = thousand barrels per day

estimated 700bn cubic metres of LNG. The first barrels are expected in 2021, with an average production rate of 100,000 to 120,000 barrels per day (bpd). Kosmos and BP have partnered to build the first floating LNG fac ility in the Senegal-Mauritania basin, 8km off Saint-Louis, which could begin operations in 2022. The facility is projected to produce 227bn cubic metres of LNG over 30 years. According to the company’s estimates, it will represent a $30bn contribution to both countries’ gross domestic product. AlthoughSenegalhasseensome major discoveries, the country still ranks far below the continent’s leading oil producers. In 2015, Nigeria produced 2.4m bpd – 24 times the production from the Cairn-operated blocks – and, at 5.1bn cubic metres, its estimated gas reserves are more than seven times the volume discovered by Kosmos at Greater Tortue, not all of which is on Senegal’s territory. According to experts, in about 10 years’ time Senegal’s oil and gas sector could resemble that of Chad’s or Ghana’s – they produced 78,000 and 145,000 bpd in 2015 respectively – but catching up with the giants, or even experienced players, any time soon would be a pipe dream. First, the technology for gas liquefaction is more challenging than that of crude oil extraction.

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RICCI SHRYOCK

Similar gas projects in Angola and Nigeria experienced several delays. Finding international markets for the resource is another issue to be tackled. China is known to be interested in this greener energy source, but its market is not easily accessible. “Measuring the quality of the reservesandestablishingamarketing pattern requires time. Unlike MozambiqueandEgypt,Senegalis not well-positioned geographically to facilitate easy supply to China,” the exploration manager of an oil major tells The Africa Report. He adds that the country is still considered too risky for his company to commit the large investment needed to build gas infrastructure. “Selling gas is more complic ated than selling oil,” says Francis Perrin, head of energy strategies and policies at OAG Africa, a research outfit. “Unlike petrol, gas doesn’t have a global marketplace so you have to successfully penetrate the three major regional markets – North America, Europe and the fastest-growing, which is the Asian market – each operating under a different structure and pricing system”. CAUTION URGED

In Dakar, many believe that the riches of oil production are within reach. The growing discussion about good governance and transparency in the sector has reinforced that impression. But for Mamadou Faye, the CEO of Senegal’s state oil firm Petrosen, the die hasn’t yet been cast. “There are people who think everyone in Senegal will receive millions of CDF francs,” he says. “But despite the volume of hydrocarbon reserves announced, nothing is certain. Project profitability, which depends on the quality of oil, operating costs and world oil prices, has to be assessed. Moreover, a company can make a discovery but decide to close up shop if it’s not making enough profit.” This uncertainty adds to the low number of jobs the oil and gas sectorisexpectedtocreate–only5,000 for Greater Tortue – compared to other key sectors. It’s imperative for the country to ensure THE AFRICA REPORT

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25trn Estimated volume (in cubic feet) of liquefied natural gas in the Greater Tortue area in Senegal, considered the biggest gas reserve in West Africa SOURCE: KOSMOS

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68 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

that the socio-environmental impacts of hydrocarbons explorationdonotthreatenfishing, which is currently the country’s leading foreign-exchange earner. Traditional fishermen’s organisations are already concerned. The Saint-Louis and Cayar Offshore Profondblocks–partoftheGreater Tortue Complex – are located near the two main fishing ports. “Hydrocarbons should be seen as a useful resource that can finance the development of

other sectors, particularly exportoriented industries that create jobs and added value,” says Boileau Loko, the International Monetary Fund’s resident representative for Senegal. “In fact oil and gas are not only weak job creators, but they are non-renewable. Reforms that foster a conducive business environment for private investments in the agricultural, industrial and services sectors must continue.” If Senegal wants to make the most of its oil and gas sector, it is

Senegal’s soon-to-be-exploited offshore oil and gas

Key to the blocks

Atlantic Ocean

Greater Tortue Complex* Nouakchott

A: Saint-Louis Offshore Profond B: Cayar Offshore Profond C: Ruﬁsque Offshore Profond D: Ruﬁsque Offshore E: Sangomar Offshore Profond F: Sangomar Offshore G: Djiffere Offshore H: Sénégal Offshore Sud Profond I: AGC Profond* MAURITANIA J: Dome Flore

also important for the government to foster a specialised network of SMEs, which is underdeveloped at this stage. To achieve this, President Macky Sall created the Comité d’orientation stratégique du pétrole et du gaz (COS-Petrogaz) in August 2016. It is led by Ousmane Ndiaye, a Petrosen veteran, who is responsible for spearheading the sector’s growth. Cameroonian academic and extractive industries law expert Achille Ngwanza also suggests putting in place an institutional, fiscal and legal framework similar to Ghana’s: “It is important to have an institution monitoring local content requirements that protect local jobs and companies, not only over the contract’s life but also upstream and downstream. For example, the Ghanaian law states that a local Ghanaian law firm should be involved in every project,” he says. TRAINING THE WORKFORCE

New discoveries or former operations

Gas discoveries 700bn m3

* Zone divided between several countries

BP/Kosmos

Saint-Louis

A Oil discoveries 473m barrels

B SENEGAL

DAKAR Total D

SOURCE: JEUNE AFRIQUE AND OIL COMPANIES

F G TA Oil

Cairn Energy

GAMBIA

African Petroleum H I

GUINEA-BISSAU

CNOOC* GUINEA 100 km

The success of a local content policy is also closely linked to an aggressive training strategy. In collaboration with the Institut Français du Pétrole and some companies present in Senegal, including Total, the ministries of education and vocational training are working to create a training centre dedicated to jobs in the oil and gas industry. In addition to educating future engineers, there is an urgent need to train good technicians, who are often lacking in sub-Saharan countries. The facilities of the Société Africaine de Raffinage, which has been in operation since 1963, are outdated. It is crucial to renovate them if the company is going to supply locally produced crude oil. Training engineers and technicians will also make it possible to produce electricity using local gas, which in turn will help reduce the country’s kilowatt-hour price, currently among the most expensive in West Africa and a major handicap to its industrial development. Christophe Le Bec and Amadou Oury Diallo in Dakar for Jeune Afrique.

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70 BUSINESS | LEADERS

FRANCIS KOKOROKO

NanaAma Botchway-Dowuona

Founder, N. Dowuona & Company, Ghana

“We don’t make a lot of noise!” In a country known for its lawyers, Botchway-Dowuona has carved out a niche at the very top with her expertise advising on property and construction deals

ess than seven years after launching her company in Ghana, NanaAma BotchwayDowuona has earned her stripes as a leading lawyer. Earlier this year, her law firm N. Dowuona & Company was recognised by UK-based The Legal 500 – the world’s largest legal referral guide – as a top-tier law firm in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) in the practice areas of commercial, corporate, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and infrastructure projects. Such a remarkable feat would often come with huge investments in advertisement and marketing, but Botchway-Dowuona’s quieter approach to building business seems to have paid off: “I have

been working very hard. But we don’t make a lot of noise!” For some in the diaspora, the desire to return home can be held back by deep fears and questions about how they will cope. But Botchway-Dowuona always knew that her dream to reconnect with Ghana was not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’. “I left Ghana when I was seven and I’ve always wanted to come back. I definitely don’t question [my identity]. There’s no question I’m Ghanaian, I speak Ga [a local dialect] and I was raised in a Ghanaian way,” she says. Back in 1992, when she was studying for her undergraduate degree at Princeton, she wrote her thesis on how to use the Grameen lending model for microfinance, to provide small loans to alleviate poverty in

Ghana. “I’ve always been Ghanafocused and I’ve always wanted to either move back to Ghana or do something with Ghana,” she adds. So when her then partner decided to move back in 2002, she jumped at the chance even without having a clear plan or strategy. “I didn’t come back with the idea that I’m necessarily going to practise law; I came back and I had a very open mind,” she explained. “I thought, I’m going to come, look at what’s on the ground. I know I’m not going to find M&A jobs and the type of work I was doing in New York, so I’ll just relax and see what’s possible.” LAUNCHING A STARTUP

With a keen interest in art and design, she opted to start a business supplying locallymade products to shops in America. Unfortunately the entrepreneurial venture never took off. “For a variety of reasons that wasn’t feasible, (such as) huge supply chain issues,” she explains. THE AFRICA REPORT

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the country level, let’s think about revolutionising our own attitude towards compliance”. As the founder of the only woman-owned firm in Ghana to have made The Legal 500 EMEA 2017 guide, Botchway-Dowuona credits her strong determination and overriding sense of optimism for her success. She acknowledges that sexism remains an issue but she’s chosen instead to focus on making sure that her clients are getting their money’s worth. “It’s not an easy environment, but we work our fingers to the bone to deliver,” she says. BIG TRANSACTIONS

And they are not working with small fry. In 2013, her team advised local and international companies on various transactions including the acquisition of Fan Milk International by French dairy producer Danone from private equity group Abraaj, and in 2016, the $100m sale of Movenpick Ambassador Hotel to a Mauritiusbased investment fund managed by Quantum Global Investments Africa Management. This year they’ve also advised on the debut $600m bond issue by leading telecommunications infrastructure company Helios Towers Africa. With the booming real estate market in Ghana, and her extensive experience advising on property and construction deals, business prospects look promising.

LEGAL EAGLE 1992 Graduated from Princeton University and worked as an associate auditor in the New York office of Deloitte & Touche 1997 Received a JD from Columbia University School of Law and was named a James Kent Scholar 2007-2010 COO of Kingdom Zephyr Africa Management 2011 Founded her law firm N. Dowuona & Company in Ghana with just two employees. The firm now has a staff of 22 2017 Recognised by The Legal 500 EMEA 2017 as a top-tier firm in Ghana

David Munro The new CEO of insurance company Liberty Holdings, David Munro, arrives at the insurer from Standard Bank. That leaves Africa’s largest bank very much in charge of Liberty, with the chair and CFO also coming from Standard Bank.

Funmilayo Omo After the retirement of Alphonse Okpor, it is now up to Funmilayo Omo, the newly-appointed managing director and chief executive officer of African Alliance Insurance, to guide the Lagos-based life insurance specialist. Omo has been with the firm since 1991.

“It’s not an easy environment, but we work our fingers to the bone to deliver” When asked what she would say to that young upcoming lawyer who looks up to her as a role model, she offers some candid advice based on her own personal experience: “I had my first child when I was in law school and everybody was terrified that I was going to drop out and not continue with my career. I [eventually] had four children and I don’t think it held me back. So you can do anything if you put your mind to it.”

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Oheneba Ama Nti Osei

Kunle Ahmed Ahmed has been with Axa Masard – the Nigerian subsidiary of French insurer Axa – since 2004, and has just been appointed Executive Director. He was responsible for building up the company’s Port Harcourt office. He will take up his post on 17 July.

She returned to the corporate world in 2007 working for a top pan-African private equity firm, Kingdom Zephyr, which she says was a wonderful opportunity to learn more about Africa and to discover different industries and sectors. During her time there, she advised the fund manager on various transactional matters involving the $120m and $490m Pan-African Investment Partners I and II funds respectively. She’s most proud of her work advising Kingdom Hotel Investments on a $100m development project in Ghana during her stint as a legal consultant. “I advised them when they were negotiating the deal with the government to acquire the property, to acquire the interest in the property, I advised them throughout the development, permitting, construction, […]. I literally worked on everything from the beginning of the Ghana adventure to the end when they sold the business,” says BotchwayDowuona, who is a member of the International Bar Association. After several challenging experiences that included a personal family tragedy, she attempted another dive into entrepreneurship in 2011, this time doing something she truly enjoyed. “I decided to come back to my first love which is the law, and this time to try and build something as opposed to being a full practitioner or a consultant,” she says. This was the birth of N. Dowuona & Company. Despite the setbacks and disappointments, she says the journey has been worthwhile: “I haven’t looked back. […] It’s been difficult, definitely. I mean from the beginning you’re compensated a lot less than you are making as a senior associate in New York, but I haven’t traded my quality of work, and I feel privileged to have had great opportunities.” In 2016, she delivered a compelling TED-style talk exposing some of the ills of Ghanaian society. She urged each citizen to commit to change and take personal responsibility instead of being quick to pass the buck. She advises that “before we talk about revolution at

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SAM PANTHAKY/AFP

A warm handshake between AfDB president Adesina and Prime Minister Modi

AfDB

There’s gold in that dirt The AfDB took to India in May to raise funds and call for a long-overdue agricultural revolution, turning processing into a cash cow and supporting ’agripreneurs’

youth population will double to 840 million by 2050, and private sector money is badly needed to fill the investment gap. Moreover, Adesina wants a bigger capital base for the AfDB to meet its ambitious financing targets. While growth on the continent dipped to 2.2% in 2016 – a low unseen since the turn of the century – it will rebound to 3.6% in 2017 and is set to reach that level again in 2018. The AfDB wants to be at the heart of African growth. It has had

RICKETY BOATS

India’s trade with Africa (in $m) 50,000 45,000

India’s imports from Africa

40,000 35,000 30,000 SOURCE: GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

hen president of the African Development Bank(AfDB)Akinwumi Adesina hits his stride, he has something of the preacher’s oratory. “Think of a continent that will have the same population as India and China taken together by 2050. Think of a continent with a rising middle class, rapid urbanisation and that will have the youngest population on earth by 2050,” thundered Adesina at the AfDB’s annual meeting in May, which was held for the first time in India. “Think of a continent where consumer spending is projected to reach $1.4trn in the next three years and business-to-business spending to reach $3.5trn in the next eight years. Think of the continent that accounted for 30% of global business and regulatory reforms in 2016.” Speaking at the opening ceremony of the AfDB annual general meetings in Ahmedabad in the Indian state of Gujarat, Adesina was spelling out the stakes in order to drum up cash. Africa’s

25,000 20,000 15,000

India’s exports to Africa

10,000 5,000 0 2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

a record year in 2016, disbursing more than $11bn on projects and programmes. Taking the AfDB meetings to India was no idle safari, and next year’s meetings will be held in Busan, South Korea. There is a clear pivot to Asia in the AfDB thinking, which perhaps began in 2008, when the annual meetings were held in Shanghai. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was keen to emphasise the cultural and historical links between his country and the continent: from the many Indian trading families who set up on Africa’s eastern seaboard to a common heritage of British colonialism and to Gandhi’s first steps in the non-violent protest movement, taken in South Africa. “Our partnership is not confined to government alone,” said Modi. “India’s private sector is at the forefront of driving this impetus. From 1996 to 2016, Africa accounted for nearly one-fifth of Indian overseas direct investments. India is the fifth-largest country investing in the continent, with investments over the past 20 years amounting to $54bn.”

2015-16

2016-17

And Indian-Africa trade continues to accelerate. Bilateral trade was at $1bn in 1995 and grew to $75bn by 2015. And while that represents only half of the continent’s trade with China, which was around $160bn in 2015, trade with India should reach $100bn by 2018 according to the AfDB. This may also have greater ‘multiplier effects’ – economic jargon for investment that drives further investment – if that money hits productive sectors like agriculture, the banner under which the AfDB meetings were held. “In Africa, for far too long the farmers have been abandoned,” intoned Adesina. “It’s like we are deliberately putting them on rickety boats and sending them across the Mediterranean.”

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Certainly, there are a host of Indian businesses with tropical agriculture expertise to sell, from post-harvest treatments for fruit and vegetables to specialised seeds and fertilisers. The Indian Dairy Machinery Company (IDMC), for example, which is part of India’s Dairy Development Board, has built milk treatment equipment from “the cattle to the customer”, as its marketing blurb suggests. It already supplies one of the companies recently bought by Kenya’s Brookside Dairy. For IDMC’s acting managing director Rajesh Subramanian: “We are equal to the Europeans in quality and just 60% of the price.” CHOCS AWAY

But beyond the push to get African countries focused on commercial agriculture, the AfDB is also trying to get them to climb out of the bottom rung of primary product creation. “Africa, which produces 75% of the world’s cocoa, receives only 2% of the $100bn annual chocolate market. African farmers sweat, while others eat sweets,” says Adesina. “While the price of cocoa has hit an all-time low, profits of global manufacturers of chocolates have hit an all-time high. It’s time to process Africa’s cocoa in Africa, for we must end Africa being at the bottom of global value chains.” That will take some fresh thinking about industrial policy. The AfDB’s new chief economist, Celestin Monga, has released a book detailing success stories in building special economic zones. The AfDB plans to launch a new financing programme to support the creation of agricultural zones across the continent, as well as new financing mechanisms for a new generation of ‘agripreneurs’, several of whom were present during the meetings. That will take cash, so Adesina’s next fight is to convince the AfDB governors that the harvest is worth it and that they should support a capital increase in the bank. “There is gold in that dirt,” he promises. Nicholas Norbrook in Ahmedabad

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The sun also rises… The commodity supercycle is a thing of the past, and after a decade of largesse China’s major infrastructure spending has slowed. Mining companies in Africa have paid their dues, spending the past two years restructuring their balance sheets and recalibrating their appetites. The result, you might think, is a newly tuned up set of miners, looking at fresh opportunities across the continent. After all, prices for metals are creeping up. Hallelujah! A fresh dawn for the mining sector! Fire up the elevators, clip on the head lamps!

…but the light falls unequally But you would be thinking wrong, certainly when South Africa – the leading minerals producer on the continent – is suffering from some serious self-inflicted wounds. The recent junior mining Indaba held in Johannesburg saw dejected mining execs bemoan an ever-decreasing ability to attract cash into the country. Standard & Poor’s research shows South Africa got just 4% of global exploration budgets in 2016, compared to 13% in Australia. Partly that is due to South Africa having older mines. But much is down to the regulatory environment, with ever-decreasing experience and know-how among the administrators in South Africa’s ministry of mines.

A charter for chaos And the release of South Africa’s new mining charter has not got the miners clapping in the aisles. More than R50bn was wiped off the valuations of mining stocks on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange when mineral resources minister Mosebenzi Zwane announced a new code that demands companies increase their Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) levels from 24% to 30% within 12 months. It also says that any new prospecting needs to have black ownership at 50% plus one share. Foreign investors are now warning of an exodus from South Africa.

Calculations political and financial Cynical observers suspect that there are other dynamics at play in the release of this new set of regulations. Zwane referred to the charter as “an instrument for radical economic transformation”. That is the language of the Economic Freedom Front, whose repeated calls for poor, black South Africans to get a bigger slice of the rich, white-owned mining sector has won them many votes, pushing the governing African National Congress out in several localities in recent municipal elections. And in a scathing editorial local paper Business Day argues it is not just political gains that are being sought: “It’s not clear who inspired some of the new provisions, and hard not to wonder if some are not a licence for plunder by Gupta-linked Zwane and his team, via the new Mining Transformation and Development Agency, which will report to the minister.”

DOSSIER LOGISTICS

Transnet in South Africa’s state-run transport and logistics company is in charge of a $23bn investment programme and has plans for continental expansion, but it’s been slow to splash the cash and now has been hit by allegations of corrupt deals By Marcia Klein in Cape Town and Mark Anderson in Durban

n recent years Transnet has portrayed itself as the backbone of South Africa’s infrastructuredevelopment.Largely unfettered by the governance issues that have mired other stateowned companies, such as South African Airways and beleaguered power utility Eskom, the staterun transport company looked to be a model of competence until recent opposition claims about contracting improprieties. It is overseeing a R300bn ($23bn) series of investments designed to upgrade the country’s infrastructure and enable economic growth and job creation.

The Market Demand Strategy is a seven-year investment strategy announced in 2012, its declared aim to expand rail, port and pipeline infrastructure to meet market demand for greater capacity. Five years into it, Siyabonga Gama, the company’s group chief executive officer (CEO), gives a progress report: “We have done quite well in terms of investments in the pipeline, on rail and also in the ports,” he tells The Africa Report. Transnet’s balance sheet is relatively strong. In its latest financial statement for the six months to September 2016, it had cash of R9.6bn ($743m) and had repaid

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a tangle R17bn of borrowings, secured R16.9bn of committed facilities with financial institutions and raised R11.8bn without government guarantees. But its income statement reveals some weakness. In the six months to September, revenue increased just 1.2% to R32.6bn as rail volumes dropped. Signs of strain are there, and Transnet’s spending on infrastructure development has fallen sharply. In the September 2016 statement capital investment amounted to R9.4bn – a 41.4% decline year-on-year from the same period in 2015. The company invested just R2.3bn on THE AFRICA REPORT

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Upgrades to the flagship port of Durban, including deepening berths, are a key part of Transnet’s Market Demand Strategy

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KEVIN SUTHERLAND/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

the expansion of infrastructure and equipment, and R7.1bn to maintain capacity in its rail and ports divisions. It has spent just R133bn on the Market Demand Strategy since it was conceived five years ago. DRAGGED INTO THE NET

To make matters worse, the company’s attempts to insulate itself from the broader malaise of poor governance, corruption and South Africa’s economic slump are starting to fall apart. As South Africa slid deeper into recession, it appears that the country’s economic and political

problems may seriously impinge on Transnet’s ability to meet its investment goals. The Strategy was announced under former chief executive officer Brian Molefe, who is now at the very centre of ‘state capture’ revelations, a web of corruption uncovered by former public protector Thuli Madonsela that connects President Jacob Zuma with the Gupta family of businessmen. Among the projects Molefe announced was a R50bn order for more than 1,000 locomotives in deals with China North Rail and China South Rail (now CRRC), General Electric and Bombardier,

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PLAYING IT DOWN

This, for example, is Transnet’s recent cursory response to the EFF’s claims of procurement irregularities: “Transnet has noted recent reports around the integrity of its procurement processes, particularly on its locomotive acquisition programme, which is the cornerstone of its infrastructure investment programme – the Market DemandStrategy.Weareconfident that our procurement processes have sufficient checks and balances to guarantee integrity. These include oversight at various governance levels.” The company’s owndirectorshaveneverthelessset up a special committee “to review

These investments, he says, will stimulate economic growth, “and in fact, when we have depressed markets, it helps South Africa [avoid] a depression [and] continuetocreatesomejobs,albeit not at the level that we wanted them to be created, and generally improve the standard of living.”

Is Transnet still on track? (results year to 31 March 2016)

Cash generated from operations

R27.7bn

1.7%

Increase in revenue for the year

SHIFT FROM ROAD TO RAIL

2.6% Increase in earnings before interest and taxes, 4.3 times South Africa’s GDP growth for the ﬁnancial year

R340bn

Transnet expects to spend at least this much over the next 10 years in investments. the company’s processes” and will “pronounce once this process is concluded,” the statement says. Sifting through Transnet’s financials and other public documents, there is very little information on the headwinds, and certainly no concern around the political storm. There is, however, some disquietude about general economic conditions and the effect of the recent commodities slump. The message is that Transnet’s infrastructure development goals, aimed at pulling up South Africa’s economy, remain on track, although there are clear signs that progress has slowed. Gamaacknowledgesthedifficult trading conditions but remains optimistic about Transnet’s infrastructure development plans. “I think from a Transnet perspective in terms of South Africa’s wider investment and industrialisation goals, we have […] a countercyclical investment strategy that tries to lift the sovereign by [strengthening] the logistics backbone of the country,” says the CEO.

SOURCE: TRANSNET

some of which fall squarely into the state capture quagmire. On 9 June the opposition party Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) released leaked documents showing that Transnet lost R17bn in corrupt overpayments during the procurement of 1,064 locomotives. At a press conference, leader Julius Malema named finance minister (and former public enterprises minister) Malusi Gigaba and Molefe as among those involved. Until then, Transnet had prided itself on being profitable and able to raise funding itself without the backingofgovernmentguarantees. But investors are now changing their minds about the company. In May, Transnet’s R200m bond auction received just two bids totalling R40m. In the three auctions that have been held since the dismissal of respected finance ministerPravin Gordhanin March, which rocked investor confidence, Transnet has raised just R55m of an expected R600m. FinanceministerGigabawarned last month that the government’s planned expenditure may not be affordable if there is a further decline in gross domestic product and revenue, although he did not specify if this was at central government level or through its parastatals like Transnet. Yet, in the alternative universe that is state-owned entities, one would be hard pressed to see any of these remarkable developments acknowledged in any big way.

Spending on rail accounts for about 70% of the company’s investment strategy, according to Gama, and Transnet has focused on “creating new railway lines, upgrading the existing branch network, and improving infrastructure”. The company is trying to shift commodity transport back from road to rail. It wants to enter into new markets “where there were a lot of commodities that were being handled by road,” but where transit was not really a big player, “especially containers and automotive”, Gama says. It was reported as recently as November that Transnet had set asideR20bnforacquisitionsinnew areas including freight forwarding and shipbroking and to buy assets such as liquid-bulk facilities and inland terminals. Gama said at the time that Transnet was even looking at India and the Middle East, although its focus would largely be on the African continent. Transnet is currently active in neighbouring countries including Swaziland, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company is looking to enter several new markets soon. Gama says they will be countries “where we can have the possibility to invest in infrastructure, look at port concessions, look at rail upgrades as well as look at pipeline opportunities”. Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Senegal, Togo and Benin are countries the company is eyeing. In November Gama said as much as 25% of revenue could come from outside South Africa over the next five to six years. A few months down the line, this seems unlikely given current conditions.

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INTERPOL is the world’s largest international police organization, with 190 Member Countries. Created in 1923, it facilitates cross-border police co-operation, and supports and assists all organizations, authorities, and services whose mission is to prevent or combat international crime. INTERPOL is now looking for qualified candidates for the next phase of the WAPIS Programme which will start in October 2017. The WAPIS Programme is funded by the European Union and aims at strengthening police information management and sharing within and among ECOWAS Member States and Mauritania and with the rest of the world. The positions are located in Abidjan - Côte d’Ivoire: • IT Project Manager (Development background) • Principal Administrative Attaché • Project Communications and Publications Officer • Project Administration and Events Officer • Legal Counsel For more details on how to submit your application for these and other interesting employment opportunities, please visit the INTERPOL recruitment web page at: https://interpol.recruitmentplatform.com/Q22FK026203F3VBQBV7V4V4EW/EN//index.php?JobAdlg=EN

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