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December 9, 2013
Poultry Times Poultry
Outlook
Production increases forecast for broilers, turkeys and eggs By David B. Strickland Poultry Times Staff
dstrickland@poultrytimes.net
WASHINGTON — In a nutshell, poultry production (broilers, turkeys and eggs) are being forecast for increases in 2014. In its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, the USDA’s Economic Research Service notes that table eggs are estimated for a production of 7 billion dozen for next year, a result of decreasing feed prices giving way to production expansion. For broiler meat 2014 production is projected at 38.9 billion pounds. And turkey meat production for next year is being forecasted at 6 billion pounds.
Broilers For the fourth quarter of 2013, ERS notes that broiler meat production is approximately 9.5 billion pounds, which is 3.3 percent more than last year. For next year, “broiler meat production . . . is forecast at 38.9 billion pounds, an increase of 2.9 percent from 2013,” the report noted. “This forecast is 150 million pounds higher than the previous forecast. “In 2014, the increase in broiler meat production is expected to come mainly from a higher number of birds slaughtered, but average bird liveweights are also expected to be higher than in 2013. Broiler integrators are expected
to expand production due to the combination of large drops in the prices for corn and soybean meal and expected growth in the domestic economy. Broiler producers will also gain somewhat from expected strong prices in 2014 for most beef products.” ERS adds that with higher broiler production, along with an increase in the stock of a number of chicken products in the second and third quarters of 2013, this led to a decrease in prices. “In October, prices for whole birds were just over 90 cents per pound, 6 percent higher than the previous year,” ERS reported. “However, while prices are still higher than in 2012, prices for whole birds have fallen significantly over the last several months and in May averaged over 20 cents higher at $1.10 per pound. The wholesale whole bird price is forecast at 88 cents to 92 cents per pound in fourth quarter 2013, a slight decrease from the third quarter average.” “However, prices in 2014 are forecast to be somewhat lower than the previous year,” the report noted. “Wing prices in October averaged $1.47 per pound, 23 percent lower than at the same time in 2012 . . . Stocks of breast meat at the end of September were lower than the previous year, but prices for such products as boneless/skinless
See Outlook, Page 8
December 9, 2013 Volume 60, Number 25 www.poultrytimes.net
Chick-fil-A founder Truett Cathy retiring as company CEO, chairman The Associated Press
ATLANTA — Chick-fil-A founder Truett Cathy is retiring as chairman and CEO. His son, Dan Cathy, will take on both roles. Truett Cathy, 92, will assume the title of founder and chairman emeritus of the restaurant chain. The company said in a statement that he will continue to concentrate on his entrepreneurial work. This includes his new restaurant concept, Truett’s Luau, opening in
Fayetteville, Ga. in December. Truett Cathy founded Chick-fil-A in 1967. Dan Cathy currently serves as president and chief operating officer of Chick-fil-A Inc. He will retain the title of president when he becomes chairman and CEO. Privately held Chick-fil-A is based in Atlanta. It has more than 1,765 restaurants in 39 states and Washington D.C. The company’s 2012 sales were $4.6 billion.
Cathy
President Obama presented with annual Thanksgiving turkey
Special
Thanksgiving turkey: President Obama with daughters Malia and Sasha accept the National Thanksgiving Turkey from National Turkey Federation Chairman John Burkel of Badger, Minn. Burkel’s wife Joni, and the couple’s five children, were also present. See Thanksgiving presentation article on page 8.
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POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
Chicken 2014: Learning to live with prosperity By William P. Roenigk Special to Poultry Times
WASHINGTON — A year ago when the outlook for the chicken market in the new year was being forecast, it was explained how chicken companies were learning to live with high and volatile feed costs, especially corn prices. The ethanol mandate at the time continued to whip-saw grain prices with three consecutive years of soso corn crops, especially the “ohno” harvest of 2012, which greatly compounded the challenge to the chicken industry.
William P. Roenigk is senior vice president of the National Chicken Council based in Washington, D.C.
Apparently, chicken producers/ processors learned their lesson quite well, since, according to most industry analysts, 2013 has been one of the most profitable years in history, if not, in fact, the most profitable. And, this conclusion remains the case despite wholesale chicken prices generally decreasing during the fourth quarter of 2013. A record corn harvest has pressured corn prices to fall enough to shave at least six cents off the cost of producing a pound of ready-to-cook chicken. Further, the declines in soybean meal prices have saved another two or more cents per pound. So, a measurable amount of net margin relief is being provided, despite the softer chicken prices experienced during fourth-quarter 2013.
Production increase USDA is calling for a 2.9 percent increase in chicken production in 2014 on top of the 2 percent increase estimated for 2013. A number of analysts outside the department believe USDA’s forecast is somewhat modest and that a 3.5 percent or more than 4 percent expansion is more likely. A 4 percent increase would put the industry back on-track for its long-term annual rate of expansion. At the same time, however, these analysts quickly acknowledge that any significant growth in producing more total pounds will require more birds which first means a further expansion in the hatchery supply flock. Recent monthly evidence remains mixed on how quickly and how much will the hatchery supply flock actually increase. USDA’s November 2013 report of the monthly pullet chicks placed in the hatchery supply flock project the May 2014 to be 1 percent above the same month in 2013. If the projection proves accurate and the average bird weight increases 1 percent over year earlier, chicken production during first-half 2013 could approach a 2 percent increase, unless profit margins are sufficient to encourage companies to continue to hold breeder hens beyond their normal productive egglaying life. Stock brokers, perhaps because of government requirements, repeatedly say to their clients that the buyers of investment instruments should be mindful that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In somewhat the same way, the chicken industry’s history has been that a period of good profits leads to a production over-supply which then results in reduced or even negative net margins. But, perhaps, 2014 will be different from the most often experienced chicken cycle. Making the case that this time things will be different is at
least one important factor. Competing meats, especially beef in 2014 on balance may provide less competition. USDA expects almost Roenigk 6 percent less beef in 2014. Certain other analysts expect a 7 percent or even more shift downward. Also, although USDA sees a 2.6 percent increase in pork production in the new year, some hog industry analysts continue to express great concern about the virus that is killing young piglets. As much as 1 percent less pork production could be trimmed-off of USDA’s production forecast for 2014 if the virus remains unchecked and continues to spread to more operations in more states. Looking at red meats from a consumption viewpoint, the competing meats situation comes into a better focus. In 2014 USDA forecasts per capita beef consumption at 53 pounds, the lowest level since 1952 and for pork consumption the expectation is for 47.1 pounds per person, about the same level as seen since 2010. Combined red meat (beef, pork, veal and lamb) consumption for 2014 may decline to 101.3 pounds per person, the smallest quantity of red meat consumed on a per capita basis since 1935 when it was 101.2 pounds. Before concluding that such a downward shift must automatically mean a better competitive environment for chicken, it should be remembered that consumption is not necessarily the same as actual consumer demand. Real changes in consumer income and the relative price level of the various meats will determine if the consumption levels of meat and poultry in 2014 are too much, too
little, or just right in terms of producers realizing positive net margins. yy Will chicken consumption be a record high in 2014? In 2006 before irrational exuberance afflicted the corn-based ethanol business per capita consumption of chicken reached a record high of 87.7 pounds. Since then consumption has varied from a low of 81 pounds in 2009 to a high of 86.4 pounds in 2007. In 2013, USDA’s estimated consumption is 83.2 pounds per person, 1.4 pounds more than in 2012. In 2014, USDA sees chicken consumption increasing 1.8 pounds over 2013 to reach 85 pounds per person. That forecast is based on the expectation of a 2.9 percent increase in production and an increase of 2 percent increase in exports. Since changes in consumption essentially move in lock-step with changes in production, it is quite possible to see consumption in 2014 exceed USDA’s year-end forecast. That is, if analysts outside USDA prove more accurate with their production forecasts of a 3.5 percent or even 4 percent increase and the increase in exports remains at a mod-
See NCC, Page 11
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POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
Ethanol mandate, immigration still need congressional reform By Joel Brandenberger Special to Poultry Times
WASHINGTON — From the vantage point of the holidays, it’s easy to look ahead to a new year in the turkey business with optimism and energy. Those who work in agriculture and food production tend to optimism by their very nature, seeing a possible new beginning with each season and production cycle. Certainly the harvest this fall gives reason for cautious optimism — corn will not be as scarce and, at least for 2014, the supply will be more dependable. Thanks to the Environmental Protection Agency acknowledging the limits of ethanol’s utility in the fuel supply, slightly less corn may be diverted to ethanol. The Joel Brandenberger is president of the National Turkey Federation with offices in Washington, D.C.
forced siphoning away of to drought conditions feed corn into gasoline may be more widely recblending has dramatically ognized by policymakchanged the feed markets ers, but the underlying in the last eight years, statutes governing U.S. and feed accounts for 70 biofuels policy remain percent of the production unchanged. cost in turkeys. But, we The National Turkey cannot delude ourselves: Federation has actively EPA’s decision had nothpromoted a broader ing to do with concern Brandenberger public understanding over ethanol’s impact that forced diversion of on the feed or food supcorn-to-fuel drives up ply. The agency made this decision corn feed, which increases the price because the Renewable Fuels Man- of food. Feed prices should come date for 2014, if left unadjusted, down eventually — but it will be could not have been met. Gasoline well into 2014 before the plentiful retailers simply did not want gaso- harvest and corresponding moderline with more than 10 percent etha- ated corn prices will show up fully nol; the market cannot assume much in feed bins. A notable number of more than the adjusted level EPA hardworking turkey operations proposes for the coming year. The suffered economically through the volatility and uncertainty caused volatility in prices, some through by year-to-year ethanol blending bankruptcy and many through layrequirements that are not sensitive offs. To remove the year-to-year un-
certainty, Congress must reform or remove the mandate as a permanent fix to volatility. Also in the New Year, it seems almost certain a vast, positive change in food safety will come in the form of modernized USDA regulations for poultry inspections at processing plants. Federal inspectors will be given new freedom to examine and sample beyond their previous limitation of primarily looking at carcasses going by on the line. In the years of refining this new system in selected chicken and turkey processing plants, results have shown it will meet or exceed federal food safety performance standards. Rather than requiring federal inspectors to only look for visible carcass defects, they will now spend more time testing for microbes and patrolling other areas of the operation while the plant employees take the first crack at rejecting visible defects in carcasses
before a line inspector conducts the final review. Securing a reliable, legal workforce in processing plants remains a challenge within the larger national debate over immigration reform. While seasonal agricultural workers work for a portion of the year before returning to their native countries, processing plant employees gain skills in jobs that continue without regard to season. Poultry processors seek legal workers to fill jobs in rural locations that have a small available workforce. The National Turkey Federation supports a work permit for an immigrant to train and establish job skills in the processing plant, but remain no more than 18 months at a time in the United States. Verifying the legality and identity of the worker must also be established with complete reliability on federal
See NTF, Page 11
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POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
Viewpoint Compiled by Barbara Olejnik, Associate Editor 770-718-3440 bolejnik@poultrytimes.net
US-EU trade agreement could hinge on poultry By Jim Sumner
Special to Poultry Times
STONE MOUNTAIN, Ga. — When the U.S. government and the European Commission got the idea for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), they envisioned an agreement that would bring the industrial, manufacturing, services and technical sectors together under an umbrella of free trade. Sumner The agriculture community, however, did not want to be excluded from such a far-reaching and comprehensive agreement. Agriculture made the following point: “If we’re going to have an agreement that includes agriculture, it must adhere to the long-standing tenet that there will be no exclusions.” For those observers who have not followed global trade policy over the years, this means that U.S. poultry must not be left out of the negotiations. The reason is simple: the European Union has for the past 17 years blocked the import of U.S. poultry for reasons we believe to be not only scientifically invalid, but that Jim Sumner is president of the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council with offices in Stone Mountain, Ga.
go against the grain of international trade rules laid out by the World Trade Organization. Therefore, it’s conceivable that “the poultry issue” could be one of the biggest stumbling blocks to TTIP becoming a reality, not just for agriculture, but for all sectors. If the U.S. and the EU cannot come together on such a basic issue as poultry processing, then how will they come together on the myriad other issues that will be on the negotiating table? Our industry has been a strong supporter of our government in negotiating free trade agreements with other countries. Exports are vital to the economic well-being of our industry. Our industry exports more than 20 percent by weight of all the chicken meat produced in the U.S., and about 11 percent of the turkey meat. In 2012, the total value of these exports reached $4.9 billion. We have calculated that if the EU opened to our products it would add another $600 million in exports annually. Why does the EU bar U.S. poultry imports? The U.S. and the EU have always approached poultry processing somewhat differently. The Euros claim their system addresses pathogens like salmonella and campylobacter sufficiently at the farm level so they don’t have to use interventions at the slaughter plant. The U.S. also addresses pathogens at the farm level, but has a strong, prescriptive pathogen-reduction program at the plant in order to meet USDA standards. The EU employs an air-chilling system for post-slaughter poul-
try carcasses, while we in the U.S. use a water-based chilling system. Our industry has always employed safeguards during processing that include anti-microbial treatments of poultry carcasses in the final rinse water that include chlorine or its components, or other effective pathogen-reducing compounds that are accepted by international agencies such as the Codex Alimentarius Commission, which sets international guidelines for food safety. We don’t argue whether either system is right or wrong or better than the other; they are simply two different ways of producing safe and wholesome products with equivalent results. In 1997, the EU banned U.S. poultry because of chlorine, which they claim is a carcinogen that poses an unacceptable risk to consumers. As we negotiated this issue with the EU over the years, our government proposed that the EU should accept alternative treatments, and the European Food Safety Authority accepted four compounds. The European Commission brought these to a vote of commissioners of all the member states. In a purely political move, the commissioners rejected them unanimously. The Food Safety & Inspection Service recently announced a 55 percent decrease in the incidence of salmonella on raw chicken carcasses in the last five years and a 26 percent decrease in the first quarter of this year as a result of the agency’s pathogen-reduction program. Also, FSIS noted a 50 percent decrease in campylobacter since 2011, when the agency began monitoring the bacterium. While campylobacter has always been a concern in the U.S., it is more of a public health problem in the EU. At a recent international poultry meeting in Europe, our colleagues from the EU said they are concerned with their inability to control campylobacter. But, as one of our technical experts noted, campylobacter might not be such a problem had Europe not disallowed pathogen-reduction treatments in its processing plants.
“
‘It’s conceivable that “the poultry issue” could be one of the biggest stumbling blocks to TTIP becoming a reality, not just for agriculture, but for all sectors.’ Jim Sumner
USAPEEC president
While some countries, such as the U.K. — where campylobacter is a serious problem — might be more receptive to the use of antimicrobials, others would rather fall on their swords than to do anything that could open the door to imports, even though Brazil has more than
made up for the U.S. absence in the market. At a recent meeting of European poultry processors, I made these points, and noted that it’s unfortunate that consumers in two of the
See Sumner, Page 5
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POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
AEB: Showcasing the benefits of REAL eggs By Joanne C. Ivy
Special to Poultry Times
PARK RIDGE, Ill. — As 2014 approaches, the American Egg Board plans to continue several strategic marketing projects that were launched in 2013. AEB has a long history of reaching food formulators and manufacturers about the benefits of using REAL eggs and egg products in their formulations. AEB Ivy strongly believes that, for a variety of reasons, the time-tested, all-natural REAL egg remains the best option for consumers, foodservice companies and food manufacturers. To address egg replacers, AEB has developed a new educational campaign for food manufacturers about the functionality and versatility of eggs and eggs’ role in keeping ingredient labels clean. Eggs are a staple ingredient for food manufacturers because of their 20+ functional properties; however, Joanne C. Ivy is president & CEO of the American Egg Board with of*SRB40 PTimes 2C_Layout 1 3/6/12 fices in Park Ridge, Ill.
AEB recognizes the threat of egg replacer ingredients and has developed an aggressive, surround-sound approach to combat this threat. Today’s consumers demand transparency and simplicity in their food products. According to 2013 International Food Information Council “Health and Wellness” annual survey, 93 percent of consumers prefer to see familiar ingredients, such as eggs, on food labels. In October 2013, a print and digital ad campaign launched in the ingredient supply media promoting eggs as a familiar, trustworthy ingredient that can make a difference in quality of packaged goods and consumer buying decisions. AEB’s strategic response campaign targets food manufacturers and highlights the benefits of using REAL eggs versus egg replacer ingredients. AEB’s objectives are to: yy Convince food manufacturers to continue to use REAL eggs within their formulations and be inspired to develop new products with egg ingredients. yy Discourage food manufacturers from considering egg replacers or, at the very least, question the viability of that option. AEB aims to educate this market segment about the breadth and versatility of eggs’ functional aspects. Food manufacturers don’t always realize that eggs are multifunctional performing several roles in food formulations. Most egg re1:45 PM Page 1 placers are single-function. Without
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eggs, a more complex and lengthy ingredient statement occurs. On social media, this target audience will read these messages through Twitter and blog posts. Elements of this surround-sound campaign include a white paper titled “The Egg & Clean Labeling” that outlines the relevance and importance of eggs in today’s marketplace and their power to build trust with consumers. The white paper has been posted on AEB.org/RealEggs. Comparing the nutrition benefits of plant-based egg replacers with REAL eggs, the Egg Nutrition Center’s Executive Director Dr. Mitchell Kanter says, “The notion that you can replace a REAL egg, which is the gold standard of high-quality protein, with a combination of lowquality plant protein sources, is misguided. There is no comparison in the nutritional value of using REAL eggs to synthetic, plant-based replacers.” In 2014, AEB will leverage video testimonials from food manufacturers who tried replacers but were
(Continued from page 4)
most scientifically advanced regions of the world are being deprived of each other’s specialty poultry products because of the inability of our governments to rationally address
the situation I’ve just described. Poultry politics are among the strongest of nearly all other sectors of agriculture, and may also surpass other non-agricultural trade issues as well.
See AEB, Page 13
While a successful TTIP negotiation would be mightily beneficial to the struggling economies of Europe and the U.S., if the EU cannot accept the politics of poultry, then it could very well become a failed agreement.
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last 50 years. This is an extraordinary story to be told. AEB committed significant assessment dollars to conduct a very comprehensive campaign to reach consumers, retailers, food manufacturers, foodservice operators, health professionals and others. Across America egg farmers provide safe, fresh, locally-produced eggs, while caring for hens in accordance with the highest national standards. Egg farmers have also made great strides toward making egg production practices more efficient, allowing them to provide an affordable source of high-quality protein while producing less waste and requiring fewer resources. Lifecycle analysis findings of U.S. egg production from 1960-2010 found environmental efficiencies as a result of a wide range of factors. Ongoing outreach will promote these incredible results to targeted audiences. For Easter, AEB will build on its success from 2013 with a robust
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disappointed with the results. Additional tactics for next year include: yy Webinar showcasing how eggs contribute to clean labels yy Web-based animated infographic yy Additional white papers yy Press releases and social media. All these efforts and those still in development reinforce that REAL eggs are valuable in meeting diverse formulation requirements, while providing the clean labels consumers insist on. Further processor can feel confident that AEB is taking an aggressive approach to maintain, and even increase, the importance of REAL egg as an essential ingredient to food manufacturers - not to be replaced by a synthetic egg.
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POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
Business Compiled by David B. Strickland, Editor 770-718-3442 dstrickland@poultrytimes.net
Henriksen new Aviagen CEO of Broiler Breeding Group Ennis appointed EW Group global bus. develop. director HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — On Jan. 1, 2014, Jan K. Henriksen will join Aviagen® Broiler Breeding Group as new CEO. Henriksen brings with him more than 20 years of experience in global agribusiness. Currently, he is CEO of Landmännen Unibake, the international bakery division of Landmännen Group. Prior to this, Henriksen was CEO of Landmännen Kronfogel Group, one of the leading broiler integrations in Northern Europe. During this time he worked closely with Aviagen and is very familiar with the needs and requirements of the broiler industry, the company noted. “We are pleased to Henriksen have Jan Henriksen on board as new CEO of the Aviagen Broiler Breeding Group,” said Dirk Wesjohann, chairman of Aviagen Group. “With his broad experience in the successful management of international agricultural and poultry businesses he is the ideal person to continue the successful development that Aviagen has experienced over the years.” Randall Ennis, current CEO of the Aviagen Broiler Breeding
Group, has been appointed director Global Business Development for EW Group, effective Jan. 1. In this role Ennis will report directly to the owners of EW Group and will be responsible for a number of important expansion projects for the wider group. “Randall has been with Aviagen for more than 18 years and has held a range of Ennis important management roles during this time,” said Erich Wesjohann, CEO of the parent company EW Group. “Under his leadership Aviagen`s broiler business has developed into a real global player with subsidiaries in more than 20 countries around the world. We are convinced that Randall`s excellent knowledge of the global breeding industry, combined with his extraordinary international experience and network make him the ideal fit for this important position in EW Group.” EW Group, based in Visbek, Germany, is a family-owned holding company with more than 80 subsidiaries in more than 30 countries. The core business of the group is animal breeding, animal nutrition and animal health. EW Group employs more than 7,000 people worldwide.
Other Business News Michael partners with Eggland’s Best MINNETONKA, Minn. — Michael Foods Inc. has announced it will begin a partnership with Eggland’s Best LLC. Under the agreement, Michael Foods will be the exclusive U.S. licensee of the Eggland’s Best® brand for certain egg products across the retail, foodservice and food manufacturing markets. Michael Foods will immediately begin producing Eggland’s Best 100 percent Liquid Egg Whites for retail markets. In addition, the company plans to introduce valueadded, Eggland’s Best egg products for the foodservice and food manufacturing markets. “Eggland’s Best is the number one brand in the North American retail shell egg category and has grown at a double-digit rate for the past 17 consecutive years; growing that brand within the egg products category is an outstanding opportunity for Michael Foods,” said Jim Dwyer, chairman and CEO of Michael Foods Inc. “Michael Foods is committed to providing innovative solutions for our customers and to providing them with egg products that are of the highest quality. By aligning our expertise in valueadded egg products with a premium brand like Eggland’s Best, both companies will be positioned for growth and expansion into new markets.” Eggland’s Best eggs come from hens fed an all-natural, all-vegetarian diet of healthy grains, the company noted. Eggland’s Best 100 percent Liquid Egg Whites are currently available at retail and will now be produced by Michael Foods. Michael Foods currently produces and distributes value-added egg products for retail, foodservice and food ingredient markets. While specific plans are still in development, the company expects to introduce Eggland’s Best-branded
products to the foodservice and food manufacturing markets in the future. Michael Foods Inc., based in Minnetonka, Minn, is a producer and distributor of food products to the foodservice, retail and food ingredient markets. Its principal products are specialty egg products, refrigerated potato products, cheese and other dairy products. More information can be obtained at www.michaelfoods.com.
Pilgrim’s announces invest./streamlining GREELEY, Colo. — Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. has announced several operational changes to improve efficiencies as part of its goal to generate approximately $200 million in savings in 2014. Effective Jan. 24, 2014, Pilgrim’s will expand its operations in Russellville, Ala., and Douglas, Ga., to absorb the current fresh poultry processing operations in Boaz, Ala. This consolidation will allow the company to maintain current production levels, more efficiently utilize idle capacity and generate more than $20 million in incremental margin, the company said. In addition, the company will invest approximately $10 million to upgrade its feed mill in Falkville, Ala., and add approximately 100 jobs at the Douglas and Russellville operations. “Today’s announcement reflects the strength of our balance sheet, our willingness to strategically invest in our business and our continued commitment to the pursuit of operational excellence,” said Bill Lovette, president and CEO of Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. “Given our decision to consolidate operations, our intent is to offer retention incentives to encourage many of our Boaz team members to remain with the company in different capacities. We are confident these capital improvement projects will position
the company, our stakeholders and our team members for success for many years to come.” Purchased by Pilgrim’s in 2007, Boaz is the company’s smallest operation in terms of processing capacity and employs approximately 1,100 people. Many Boaz employees will be offered opportunities at other nearby Pilgrim’s operations and all employees will be offered retention incentives. The company anticipates that contract growers who currently supply the Boaz operation will have an opportunity to meet the enhanced supply needs of Pilgrim’s operations in Russellville and Douglas. Pilgrim’s, consistent with its long-term strategy to align the company’s core competencies with customer needs, will also invest approximately $25 million to expand large bird deboning capacity and modernize utilities at its Mt. Pleasant, Texas, facility. The company previously announced an investment of $25 million to upgrade its feed mill and processing operations in Enterprise, Ala. These strategic decisions will allow Pilgrim’s to optimize its operational network and efficiently deploy resources and capital to facilities with improved infrastructure, greater scale and more favorable opportunities for long-term, sustainable profitability, the company added. More information can be obtained at www.pilgrimspride.com.
Worker injuries at all-time low WASHINGTON — The incidence of non-fatal occupational injuries and illnesses in the poultry sector, which includes slaughter and processing, is at an all-time low, according to the 2012 Injury and Illness Report recently released by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Continued on next page)
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POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013 (Continued from previous page)
The total recordable poultry processing illness and injury rate for 2012 was 4.9 cases per 100 full-time workers (per year), down from 5.8 in 2011. In terms of injuries per 100 full time workers, the poultry industry’s rate of 4.9 was below the rate of 6.3 for all animal slaughter and processing and lower than the rate of 5.6 for the entire food manufacturing sector. Poultry processing’s 2012 rate of 4.9 represents a 78 percent decrease from 1994 (the oldest data available on the BLS website), when the recorded rate was 22.7, demonstrating the enormous progress the industry has made in improving safety for its workforce. “The significant and consistent decline in illness and injury rates among our workforce over the past two decades is a direct result of the poultry industry’s strong commitment to worker safety,” said National Chicken Council President Mike Brown. “Our employees are our most important asset. I commend poultry companies and their management teams for their tremendous efforts to protect them and for their ongoing dedication to further progress.”
Ziggity launches edu. campaign MIDDLEBURY, Ind. — Ziggity Systems Inc. is launching an educational campaign and a new web resource called Poultry Watering U to promote better management of poultry watering systems, including correcting misconceptions about the effective management of such systems that could hurt flock performance results. The campaign will consist of paid advertising space and public relations efforts in conjunction with the Poultry Watering U website at www.poultrywatering.com, where producers can go to access videos and other current information about watering systems management for nipple-type drinkers. Visitors may
also subscribe to regular e-bulletins about poultry watering systems management through the site. As the only manufacturer exclusively focused on poultry watering systems, Ziggity has extensive field experience with helping producers optimize their management procedures for best results, the company notes. Ziggity is concerned about several common misconceptions regarding how birds drink and what it sees as misguided attempts to create standards by which producers set “correct” water pressure. Ziggity says such standards are seriously flawed in ways that can negatively affect flock production. “The standards that have been proposed by some do not accurately reflect what happens when chickens actually drink, and do not correlate across different brands of drinkers or to any optimal way of enhancing flock performance,” the company said. “In fact, we have found just the opposite often happening: birds drinking from water lines ‘managed by formula’ are often receiving too little or too much water, both of which can negatively impact flock performance. “Our effort includes boiling down into clear language how birds actually interact with enclosed watering systems, and demonstrating, through our own testing, the watering procedures that we have found to yield the best results. “We believe it is in the best interest of everyone — producers, distributors and poultry companies — to refine poultry management practices to yield the best possible results. This is important enough that we have chosen to focus much of our marketing budget on this educational campaign in an effort to move our industry forward in this regard.” The main thrust of the campaign focuses on such issues as water usage versus water consumption — water actually consumed by birds versus amount of water delivered through drinking lines — and environmental factors that can affect litter conditions, with such conditions being the most useful guide to optimizing flock water delivery,
Ziggity noted. “Producers should find the videos and other materials on the Poultry Watering U website most helpful in understanding the ‘why’ of watering system management as well as the actual procedures themselves,” the company noted. “These are all concepts and procedures our representatives go over with our customers that we think would be helpful to communicate to a broader audience. There really is a science to poultry watering management that needs to be better understood industrywide.” More information can be obtained at www.poultrywatering.com.
N.Y. Women’s Forum honors Tyson Foods SPRINGDALE, Ark. — The New York Women’s Forum recently honored Tyson Foods Inc. for the company’s achievement in women’s diversity by having two women serving on its nine-member board of directors. Sara Lilygren, executive vice president of corporate affairs for Tyson Foods, represented the company at the event held at the New York Stock Exchange. “We are honored to be here today among all the great companies that strive to provide opportunities for women at all levels,” said Lilygren. “But we aren’t there yet. We’ve set aggressive goals for ourselves to continue to grow opportunities for the women at Tyson Foods, including current and future team members.” In fiscal year 2013, nearly half of all officer positions at Tyson Foods were filled with females, and nearly 40 percent of the company’s 115,000 team members are women
Joyce Foods changes name WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. — Joyce Foods Inc., a provider of poultry, game and beef to chefs and restaurants nationwide, is changing
Business the company name to Joyce Farms Inc. and simplifying its brand names under the new Joyce Farms label. As part of the transition, the company recently launched a new website and online store at www.JoyceFarms.com. The company’s ownership, headquarters location, management and family farms remain unchanged. With the change, the company’s well-known Ashley Farms and Tanglewood Farms poultry brands will now be called Joyce Farms’ “Naked Chicken” — referencing the company’s commitment to raising poultry following a strict “neverever” philosophy of never adding hormones, antibiotics, pesticides, preservatives, artificial ingredients or anything else to the poultry, ever. Joyce Farms’ “Heritage” brand will include the company’s slowgrowing heritage poultry breeds — Poulet Rouge, Poussin, Capon, Pintade, Pheasant and Black Turkey — raised using older, more traditional European farming methods, and air-chilled. “When we see an opportunity for change that directly benefits our customers, we act on it,” explains Ron Joyce, Joyce Farms’ president and CEO. “For years, many customers have called us Joyce Farms and we decided that Farms is a much better way to describe what our company truly represents — we grow our poultry on small farms using Old-World methods that produce delicious, healthy and humanelyraised poultry. The name change also makes it easier for chefs and distributors to describe, specify and order the poultry and game products they desire.” Joyce Farms Inc., with headquarters in Winston-Salem, N.C., was founded in 1962 and produces a complete line of poultry and beef grown on small family farms. The company supplies its products to
chefs, restaurants and consumers nationwide through select retailers and distributors, and online at www. Joyce-Farms.com.
Soy demand grows for animal agri. ST. LOUIS — U.S. animal agriculture’s consumption of U.S. soybean meal increased by 1 million tons, or the meal from 42 million bushels of soybeans, in the 2011/12 marketing year, according to a soycheckoff-funded report, notes the United Soybean Board. Domestic animal agriculture uses about 97 percent of the U.S. soybean meal consumed in the U.S. Despite this welcomed increase, the report concluded that U.S. soybean farmers shouldn’t let their support for the animal ag industry weaken, USB said. Animal ag farmers face pressures like rising feed costs and dwindling U.S. consumer demand. Because animal ag continues to be U.S. soybean farmers’ number one customer, these pressures also threaten the profitability of all soybean farmers, the report said. According to the study, U.S. poultry, livestock and fish farmers used more than 30 million tons of soybean meal in the time period measured, or the meal from more than 1.26 billion bushels of U.S. soybeans. Broilers and swine continue to be by far the two biggest soybean-meal consumers. The meal consumption per species breaks down as follows: yy Broilers: the meal from about 476 million bushels of U.S. soybeans. yy Hogs: the meal from about 410 million bushels. yy Laying hens: the meal from 84 million bushels. yy Turkeys: the meal from more than 75 million bushels. More information can be obtained at www.unitedsoybean.org.
8
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
NTF presents Thanksgiving turkey to President Obama WASHINGTON —President Barack Obama on Nov. 27 accepted the National Thanksgiving Turkey from National Turkey Federation Chairman John Burkel of Badger, Minn. The presentation has occurred each year since 1947. “This is a quintessentially American holiday, and during this time we give thanks to our friends and our family, for citizens who show compassion to those in need and for neighbors who help strangers they’ve never met. We give thanks
for the blessings of freedom and opportunity that previous generations worked so hard to secure for. And we give thanks for the service and sacrifice of our brave men and women in uniform who serve our nation around the world,” said President Obama. Keeping with tradition, the president immediately pardoned the turkey “Popcorn” and its alternate, “Caramel.” Names for the birds were suggested by school children through the Minnesota Turkey
Growers Association. Burkel, wife Joni, and five children raised and selected the turkey given to President Obama. “My family came to appreciate that raising the National Thanksgiving Turkey for this presentation is an opportunity for Americans to reflect on the season as a thoughtful and thankful country,” said Burkel. “Sharing in the tradition of Thanksgiving, the president has reminded us of the blessings of a good harvest, and the capacity for greatness and
as turkey processors determine that falling feed costs more than offset lower prices and strong competition from the broiler industry in both the domestic and export markets.” Overall turkey stocks for this year have been more than 2012, the report noted. “Cold storage holdings of turkey products at the end of September were 542 million pounds, 4 percent higher than a year earlier,” ERS says. “Overall turkey cold storage holdings at the end of 2013 are estimated at 300 million pounds, 20 million pounds lower than the previous estimated and about even with cold storage holdings at the end of 2012. In 2014, the quarterly ending stocks forecasts are expected to be slightly higher throughout the year.” The report added that the increase in amounts has led to a decrease in whole turkey prices. “Prices for whole frozen hen turkeys at the wholesale level averaged $1 per pound in third quarter 2013, down from $1.08 per pound in third quarter 2012,” the department noted. “Whole frozen hen prices are expected to average $1.01 to $1.05 per pound in fourth quarter 2013, down about 3 cents from the $1.06 per pound average in fourth quarter 2012. “The quarterly price forecasts
for frozen whole hens in 2014 are expected to be very close to slightly lower than the levels seen in 2013.”
goodness in our nation.” Burkel is a member of Northern Pride Inc., and its 25 grower-owned turkey processors in Thief River Falls, Minn. Hybrid Turkeys, represented by Peter Gruhl, provided the newly-hatched poults, born this summer. Jaindl’s Turkey Farm in Orefield, Pa., gave the president’s family two dressed turkeys as part of the First Family’s food donations in observance of Thanksgiving. The night before the presentation,
“Popcorn” and “Caramel” roomed at the Willard Hotel, near the White House. Their permanent home is with Morven Park’s Turkey Hill at the historic turkey farm and home of former Virginia Governor Westmoreland Davis (1918-1922) in Leesburg, Va. Before settling at their Morven Park home, the turkeys have a traditional holiday stay at George Washington’s Mount Vernon Estate Museum and Garden until Jan. 6.
•Outlook (Continued from page 1)
breast meat have fallen sharply over the last several months. In May, prices for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.95 per pound, but by October prices had fallen to $1.32 per pound. Weekly prices at the beginning of November seem to indicate that prices have fallen into the high $1.20s per pound.”
Turkeys ERS noted that turkey meat production for the fourth quarter of 2013 is estimated at 1.48 billion pounds, or 4 percent less than the same time in 2012. This is being attributed to less turkeys being slaughtered and small gains in average liveweights. For next year, the report noted turkey meat production at 6 billion pounds, which is 1.7 percent more than 2013. However, “this is a decrease of 95 million pounds from the previous forecast, as turkey poult placements continue to be significantly lower than the previous year,” ERS says. “The decline in turkey production is expected to result from a combination of lower prices in 2013 for both whole birds and many turkey parts. Production is expected to begin to expand in the second half of the year
Eggs Table egg production continues its increasing trend, ERS noted. “On a year-over-year basis, table egg production has been above yearearlier levels for the last 11 consecutive quarters,” the report said. “During September, the number of table egg layers in production totaled 291 million birds, an increase of 1.4 percent from September 2012. Table egg production is expected to continue above the previous year’s level in fourth quarter 2013, with production expected at 1.8 billion dozen, an increase of 2.7 percent from the previous year.” For next year, table eggs are anticipated to total approximately 7 billion dozen, which is an increase of 1.5 percent from this year, the department noted. Hatching eggs for the third quarters of this year were about 268 million dozen, a 4.7 percent increase from the same time in 2012, the report said. This is attributed to broiler production increases. “Hatching egg production is expected to total 270 million dozen eggs in fourth quarter 2013, an
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increase of almost 6 percent from the previous year. This expansion is expected to continue to come largely from higher production of meat-type hatching eggs, as broiler production is expected to be higher through the end of 2013,” ERS says. “Hatching egg production growth is forecast to continue to expand in 2014, driven by higher broiler production; however, the growth is expected to moderate somewhat and total 1.1 billion dozen, 2.7 percent
higher than the previous year.” For table egg prices, fourth quarter seasonal demand is anticipated to keep prices higher, the report said. The wholesale prices are forecast to be approximately $1.26 to $1.32 per dozen. “With additional growth in production forecast in 2014, prices are expected to average $1.06 to $1.14 per dozen, down about 9 percent from the expected average for 2013,” ERS noted.
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9
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
U.S. poultry and egg exports continue on record pace STONE MOUNTAIN, Ga. — Although U.S. poultry exports through the third quarter of 2013 continued on a record pace, growing marginally in quantity and value over the same period last year, combined exports of table eggs and processed egg products reached historical highs, according to trade data released recently by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Total January-September poultry exports reached year-on-year records of 3.077 million metric tons valued at $4.152 billion, up 1 percent and 3 percent, respectively. Combined U.S. exports of eggs and processed egg products through the third quarter of the year, measured in shell-egg equivalents, reached 250.5 million dozen, up 28 percent from the same period in 2012, while export value hit $245.61 million, up 33 percent. Both export quantity and export value set yearon-year records. September exports of U.S. broiler meat (excluding paws) dipped by 1 percent to 276,135 tons, while value rose by less than a percent to $354.5 million, compared to September 2012. Cumulative January-September broiler meat exports (excluding chicken paws) reached 2.5 million tons, up 2 percent, valued at $3.21 billion, up 4 percent. Both export quantity and value set year-on-year records. Exports to key markets for the period included Mexico, 484,958 tons, up 19 percent; Russia, 213,316 tons, up 3 percent; Angola, 148,256 tons, up 20 percent; and Canada, 127,648 tons, up 0.2 percent. Shipments to other important markets included Cuba, 110,757
tons, down 1 percent; China, 104,113 tons, up 59 percent; Iraq, 120,613 tons, up 23 percent; Taiwan, 68,099 tons, down 31 percent; Georgia, 59,550 tons, up 1 percent; and Guatemala, 59,082 tons, up 14 percent. September exports of U.S. turkey meat slipped by 10 percent from September 2012 to 30,052 tons. Export value, meanwhile, rose by 1 percent to $59.9 million. Cumulative January-September turkey meat exports fell by 4 percent to 252,700 tons, while export value rose by 2 percent to $496.8 million. Export value for the three quarters set a year-on-year record, while quantity was the second-highest ever. The main reason for the dip in export quantity was a decline in exports of U.S. turkey to the top market of Mexico. Shipments dropped by just over 3 percent to 133,635 tons, which was offset by a rise in export value to $271.9 million. Shipments to China, the second-largest U.S. turkey market, were 34,385 tons valued at $53.9 million, up 3 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Top markets included Mexico, China, Canada, South Africa and the Philippines. September exports of chicken paws fell by 19 percent to 25,046 tons, while export value declined by 12 percent to $31.1 million. Shipments of paws to mainland China decreased by 40 percent to 12,978 tons, while exports to Hong Kong increased by 9 percent to 8,947 tons. Cumulative January-September paw exports fell by 17 percent to 229,069 tons, while value dropped by 20 percent to $279.7 million. China and Hong accounted for 82
percent of U.S. export quantity of paws. Exports of U.S. table eggs for September slipped by 8 percent to 16.5 million dozen, while value declined by 13 percent to $16.1 million. Cumulative January-September exports of table eggs were up 65 percent in quantity and 71 percent in value to 140.29 million dozen and $134.71 million, respectively. Top export markets included Mexico, Hong Kong, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union. For egg products, September exports were $10.74 million, down 18 percent from September 2012. Export value to Japan, the top export market for U.S. egg products, dipped 12.7 percent to $3.89 million. Export value to key markets of Canada increased slightly, while shipments to Mexico and the EU were down significantly from September 2012. Cumulative exports of egg products for January through September rose by 4 percent to $110.89 million. Exports to top market Japan increased by 5 percent to $35.62 million, accounting for 32.1 percent of total U.S. exports of egg products. Exports to Mexico quadrupled from 2012 to $28 million, while exports to the EU plummeted by 63.6 percent to $12.8 million. While exports to Canada increased by 53.7 percent to $9.5 million, exports to Hong Kong were up by 34 percent to $2.9 million. More poultry export information can be obtained from the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council at www. usapeec.org.
Special
Broilers: U.S. broiler (including paws) exports in January to September since 1990. Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GATS database.
Special
Turkeys: U.S. turkey exports in January to September since 1990. Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GATS database.
For the latest poultry markets and trade information Special
see page 14
Eggs: U.S. exports of table eggs and egg products (in shell egg equivalent) in January to September since 1990. Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GATS database.
10
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
Calendar Compiled by Barbara Olejnik, Associate Editor 770-718-3440 bolejnik@poultrytimes.net
DEC 18-20 — USAPEEC WINTER MTNG., Mandarin Oriental Hotel, Washington, D.C. Contact: USA Poultry & Egg Export Council, 2300 W. Park Place Blvd., Suite 100, Stone Mountain, Ga. 30087. Ph: 770-413-0006; usapeec@usapeec.org; www.usapeec.org.
2014 JAN 12-14 — FMI MIDWINTER EXECUTIVE CONF., The Phoenician, Scottsdale, Ariz. Contact: Food Marketing Institute, 2345 Crystal Drive, Suite 800, Arlington, Va. 22202-4813. Ph: 202-4528444; fmi@fmi.org; www.fmi.org. JAN 12-15 — AFBF ANNUAL MTNG., San Antonio, Texas. Contact: John Hawkins, American Farm Bureau Federation, 600 Maryland Ave., S.W., Suite 1000 W,
Washington, D.C. 20024. Ph: 202-4063677; jhawkins@fb.org; www.fb.org. JAN 27-28 — UEP BOARD MTNG., Omni Hotel & CNN Center, Atlanta, Ga. Contact: United Egg Producers, 1720 Windward Concourse, Suite 230, Alpharetta, Ga. 30005. Ph: 770360-9220; www.unitedegg.com. 28 — NCC TECHNICAL & JAN REGULATORY COMMITTEE, Georgia World Congress Center, Atlanta, Ga. Contact: National Chicken Council, 1152 15th St., N.S., Suite 430, Washington, D.C. 20005. Ph: 202-296-2622; ncc@ chickenusa.org; www.nationalchickencouncil.org; www.eatchicken.com. JAN — INTERNATIONAL 28-30 PRODUCTION & PROCESSING EXPO, Georgia World Congress Center, Atlanta, GA. Contact: U.S. Poultry & Egg Association, 1530 Cooledge Road, Tucker, Ga . 30084-
7303, Ph: 770-493-9401; American Feed Industry Association, 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 916, Arlington, Va. 22201, 703-524-1921; American Meat Institute, 1150 Connecticut Ave., N.W., 12th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20036, 202-587-4200; www.ippexpo.org. JAN 30 — NATIONAL EGG QUALITY SCHOOL STAKEHOLDERS MTNG., Georgia World Congress Center, Atlanta, Ga. Denna Baldwin, program manager, Maryland Department of Agriculture, Food Quality Assurance Program, 50 Harry S. Truman Pkwy., Annapolis, Md. 21401. Ph: 410-8415769; denna.baldwin@maryland.gov. JAN 30 — NCC BOARD MTNG., Georgia World Congress Center, Atlanta, Ga. Contact: National Chicken Council, 1152 15th St., N.S., Suite 430, Washington, D.C. 20005. Ph: 202-296-2622; ncc@ chickenusa.org; www.nationalchickencouncil.org; www.eatchicken.com. 7-10 — YF&R LEADERSHIP FEB CONF., Virginia Beach, Va. Contact: Marty Tatman, American Farm Bureau Federation, 600 Maryland Ave., S.W., Suite 1000 W, Washington, D.C. 20024. Ph: 202406-3682; martyt@fb.org; www.fb.org. FEB 9-12 — NGA SHOW, Mirage Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nev. Contact: National Grocers Association, 1005 N. Glebe Road, Suite 250, Arlington, Va. 22201-5758. Ph: 703-
516-0700; amamone@nationalgrocers.org; www.nationalgrocers.org FEB 10 — ISPA BANQUET, Indianapolis, Ind. Contact: Indiana State Poultry Association, Purdue University, Animal Sciences, 915 W. State St., West Lafayette, Ind. 479072054. Ph: 765-494-8517; ispa@ purdue.edu; www.inpoultry.org. FEB 16-18 - AMI ANNUAL MEAT CONF., Atlanta Marriott Marquis, Atlanta, Ga. Contact: American Meat Institute, 1150 Connecticut Ave., N.W., 12th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20036. Ph: 202-587-4242; www.meatami.com. FEB 19-20 — NPI CONV., Norfolk Lodge & Suites, Divots Conference Center, Norfolk, Neb. Contact: Nebraska Poultry Industries Inc., University of Nebraska, 102 Mussehl Hall, P.O. Box 830721, Lincoln, Neb. 68583-0721; 402-472-2051; eggturkey@uni.edu; www.nepoultry.org. FEB 20-21 — USDA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM, Arlington, Va. Contact: www.usda.gov/oce/forum. FEB 24-26 — PEPA ANNUAL CONV., Sheraton Maui Resort & Spa, Lahaina, Hawaii. Contact: Pacific Egg & Poultry Association, 1521 I St., Sacramento, Calif. 95814. Ph: 916-441-0801; dmurdock@cgfa.org; www.pacificegg.org. FEB 27-March
1
—
COMMODITY
CLASSIC, San Antonio, Texas. Contact: American Soybean Association 12125 Woodcrest Executive Drive, Suite 100, St. Louis, Mo. 63141. Ph: 800-688-7692; membership@ soy.org; http://soygrowers.com. MAR 3-5 — FMI ANNUAL BUSINESS CONF., Hilton Anatole, Dallas, Texas. Contact: Food Marketing Institute, 2345 Crystal Drive, Suite 800, Arlington, Va. 22202-4813. Ph: 202452-8444; fmi@fmi.org; www.fmi.org. 4-23 — HOUSTON LIVESTOCK MAR SHOW & RODEO, Houston, Texas. Contact: Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, P.O. Box 20070, Houston, Texas 77225-0070. Ph: 832-667-1000; questions@rodeohouston.com; www.hlrs.com. MAR 10-12 — ASA BOARD MTNG., Hyatt Regency, Washington, D.C. Contact: American Soybean Association 12125 Woodcrest Executive Drive, Suite 100, St. Louis, Mo. 63141. Ph: 800-688-7692; membership@ soy.org; http://soygrowers.com. MAR 10-14 — AFIA SPRING COMMITTEE MTNGS./PURCHASING & INGREDIENT SUPPLIERS CONF., Caesar’s Palace, Las Vegas, Nev. Contact: American Feed Industry Association, 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 916. Arlington, Va. 22201. Ph: 703524-0810; afia@afia.org; www.afia.org.
11
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
USPOULTRY research celebrates 50 years
•NTF
TUCKER, Ga. — The U.S. Poultry & Egg Association is celebrating 50 years of achievement in research for the poultry and egg industry. USPOULTRY’s research program was implemented 50 years ago in response to the need of the poultry industry for research directed toward solving the most important problems facing the industry. During the early years of the development and organization of the U.S. poultry industry, one of the most limiting factors to success was the widespread incidence of disease in broiler, breeder, layer and turkey flocks. As farms grew larger and production intensified, new diseases appeared for which control measures did not exist. The poultry industry needed research to be con-
(Continued from page 3)
ducted, which could find solutions to some of these disease problems. During the past five decades, USPOULTRY’s research program has advanced in size, scope and organization to become an indispensable asset of the U.S. poultry industry and has helped the industry overcome many of the hurdles which initially impaired the industry’s development and success. “As a researcher and professor, the funds provided by the USPOULTRY research program have been invaluable to my work on infectious proventriculitis of broilers. Without the program’s funding, the research I have conducted would not have been made possible,” said Dr. James Guy, professor at the College
of Veterinary Medicine at North Carolina State University. Guy is the first recipient of the Dr. Charles Beard Research Excellence Award, a USPOULTRY award named for Dr. Charles Beard, former director of the Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory and former vice president of research at USPOULTRY. “The impact of the USPOULTRY research program has been very significant. Many of the great advances in disease control, nutrition, poultry production, genetics, animal welfare, food safety and environmental management in the poultry industry have come about as a direct result of research funded by USPOULTRY,” said Dr. John Glisson, director of research programs at USPOULTRY.
•NCC (Continued from page 2)
est rate, per capita consumption could then reach over 86 pounds. Compared with the record high of 87.7 pounds in 2006, per capita consumption in 2014 could fall short of the previous top mark. More important than achieving a record high in consumption is the basic question of “Are consumers ready, willing, and able to pay for a year-to-year increase that may approach 3 pounds more per person?” Prosperity may continue for the chicken industry in 2014 if the answer to this question is “yes.” yy Have the wheels come off the ethanol wagon? Under the “good news column” for the chicken industry in 2014 is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Nov. 15, 2014, proposal to reduce the conventional biofuels mandate (corn-based ethanol) to 13 billion gallons rather than the originally scheduled 14.4 billion gallons renewable fuels standard. This action when finalized means that about 500 million bushels of corn will not be government man-
immigration and law enforcement officials who have resources to identify false documentation. Legislation to reform immigration laws is not likely to occur without considerable struggle over the hardened positions taken by some in Congress but NTF has not lost its optimism that reform is achievable. While attracting temporary workforce skills is unresolved, trade in agricultural goods remains a hopeful route of commerce that the United States can broaden. Exports of turkey are projected to reach $740 million dollars to Mexico, Canada, Hong Kong, Russia and South Ko-
rea, representing 12 percent of our production that is exported. With continued work within trade agreements, and in one-to-one trust building, the National Turkey Federation has supported the successful and exacting work of the U.S.A. Poultry & Egg Export Council. Opportunities to broaden the market for turkey products are just over the horizon. The commitment to turkey production is renewed as each new flock of poults is put down into the turkey house. The challenge of the year ahead is as straightforward a choice as it is for any of us in agriculture. A new year, a new time for anticipation, begins.
For more poultry industry news visit dated to go to make ethanol. EPA’s announcement did not take the wheels off the ethanol wagon, but it certainly loosened the lug-nuts and is causing the wheels to wobble. It is unlikely the nuts will be retightened by the government or the courts as the wagon rolls down the road in the years ahead. It is somewhat apparent that the 13 billion gallon mandate for 2014 will be the high water market corn-based ethanol. The blend wall issue will not become less of an issue but actually more of an issue. As the quantity of gasoline annually used for over-theroad purposes continues to decline, the quantity of ethanol needed to make the E10 gasoline blend will also experience a decline. Despite the ethanol supporters touting the exciting future of E-85 and E-15 gasoline/ethanol blends, these higher blends will not be a significant factor in the marketplace to change the direction and critical nature of the blend wall issue. Some ethanol industry observers argue that if the corn prices are low enough and the crude oil prices are high enough, ethanol will be in greater demand for the export mar-
ket. That scenario is quite plausible, but market forces will drive that development, not a government mandated program.
Beyond 2014 Among the grain analysts there is a general consensus that corn will be in the $4 plus/minus per bushel range for the next few years. If there are lower feed costs for an extended time, and if the price volatility experienced in corn prices since 2007 is held in-check, chicken will be able to provide both U.S. consumers and buyers abroad with a very abundant, on-going supply of chicken at favorable values. If history provides any lesson about chicken industry profitability, it is that maintaining disciplined growth in production that is in concert with the growth in consumer demand is a worthy but more oftenthan-not an elusive goal. However, the chicken industry learned to live with record high and volatile feed costs. So, perhaps there is hope that the industry can learn to live with prosperity in 2014.
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12
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
EPA applauded for decision to lower ethanol requirements WASHINGTON — The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, on Nov. 15, released a proposed 2014 renewable fuel standard (RFS) that will require refiners to blend up to 15.21 billion gallons of biofuels into gasoline next year, which represents the first-ever reduction in a biofuels mandate that Congress created during the George W. Bush administration. The conventional fuel mandate (corn-based ethanol) would be 13 billion gallons rather than the originally required 14.4 billion gallons. “EPA’s announcement today is a good first and welcome step, but ultimately, Congress must act. Congressional action to repeal the RFS remains the most viable pathway to allowing all users of corn to have equal standing in the marketplace,” said National Chicken Council
President Mike Brown. “As corn comprises nearly 70 percent of the feed given to chickens, our single largest input cost, rising prices directly affect farmers and consumers bottom lines,” Brown added. “Since the RFS was aggressively escalated in 2007, average annual feed costs have skyrocketed by $8.8 billion for poultry producers. Last year, the average U.S. family of four faced a $2,000 increase in food costs due to higher corn prices brought on largely by the RFS. We know all too well from last year that corn crop projections and inventories can be erased by Mother Nature’s wrath.” This action marked the first time EPA has lowered the overall ethanol-blending requirement from the prior year’s target. The move lowers the mandate from the 2013 required
volume, 16.55 billion gallons, back to where it was in 2012. The agency is taking comments on a range of 15 to 15.52 billion gallons in its proposal. Congress sets the renewable fuels volume mandates, but EPA can administratively lower the requirement in certain situations. EPA’s proposed 2014 renewable fuel standard rule relies on a legal provision that allows it to lower its advanced biofuels and total renewable fuel targets using two waiver authorities in the Clean Air Act, EPA said. The first waiver authority allows the agency to lower the advanced biofuel volume mandate because of a shortage in available supply of cellulosic biofuels. The second waiver allows EPA to lower the overall renewable fuel requirements because of limits on the volume “of ethanol that can be con-
sumed in gasoline given practical constraints on the supply of higher ethanol blends to the vehicles that can use them and other limits on ethanol blend levels in gasoline.” In addition, NCC joined a coalition of livestock and poultry groups in releasing the following statement: “We appreciate this action as it acknowledges a problem exists with the current policy. The inflexible RFS mandate continues to have a detrimental impact on the economy and makes feeding animals risky because our industries are not competing on a level playing field. Today is a step in the right direction, however, it is the responsibility of the Congress to find a lasting solution to this rigid, inflexible program and put livestock and poultry producers back on equal standing in the
marketplace.” This coalition includes: the American Feed Industry Association, American Meat Institute, American Sheep Industries, California Dairy Campaign, California Dairies Inc., Dairy Producers of New Mexico, Dairy Producers of Utah, Idaho Dairymen’s Association, Milk Producers Council, North American Meat Association, National Cattlemen Beef Association, National Chicken Council, National Pork Producers Council, National Turkey Federation, Nevada State Dairy Commission, Northwest Dairy Association/Darigold, Oregon Dairy Farmers Association, South East Dairy Farmers Association, Southeast Milk Inc, Washington State Dairy Federation and Western United Dairymen.
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13
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
USPOULTRY research initiatives to address emerging issues By John Starkey
Special to Poultry Times
TUCKER, Ga. — The U.S. Poultry & Egg Association research program has a long history of accomplishments. This year the program is celebrating 50 years of funding the research that has allowed the poultry industry to adopt new technologies in all areas and become the most advanced animal protein production industry in the world. The USPOULTRY research program has invested almost $25,000,000 in 19 research topic areas, ranging from nutrition, processing and environmental management to food safety, poultry welfare and disease prevention. The research program is funded jointly by USPOULTRY and the USPOULTRY Foundation. Research proposals on any of the 19 topic areas are submitted by researchers twice per year. Those proposals are reviewed by the Foundation Research Advisory Committee (FRAC), which is composed of 14 professionals who are employed in
the U.S. poultry industry. The expertise of the FRAC membership covers all of the areas of poultry production, allowing the FRAC to Starkey make very informed evaluations of the research proposals. The FRAC recommends to the USPOULTRY and USPOULTRY Foundation boards which research proposals should be funded. As the needs of the industry have shifted over the years, the USPOULTRY research program has responded by funding research to meet these changing needs. For example, since 2000, the research program has provided $688,000 to fund research on salmonella control. Similarly, during that same time period, the USPOULTRY research program has invested $470,000 in research related to poultry welfare,
$429,000 in research to provide the knowledge that allowed the adoption of phytase use in poultry feeds and $692,000 for research related to litter and manure management and composting. Most of the research projects relate broadly to all segments of the poultry industry, but the research program has focused significant assets on research that addresses specific needs of the different areas of the industry. Since 2000, the research program has spent $835,000 on projects which address specific issues in the turkey industry, $445,000 on projects which targeted research in the layer industry and $789,000 on research specific for issues in the broiler industry. The USPOULTRY research program has never solicited research proposals on very specific topics. Instead, the FRAC has established a list of research priorities and invited the research community to submit research proposals on any of the priority topics. This open process has provided the basis for the very successful, broad-based research
•AEB
program and has allowed the USPOULTRY research program to contribute to the advancement of the poultry industry in many areas. But sometimes the program receives very few proposals on some of the most critically important topics.
New research program To address this, the boards of USPOULTRY and the USPOULTRY Foundation have announced the creation of a new additional research program to address current issues facing the poultry industry. This Board Research Initiative will operate alongside the current USPOULTRY research program and is designed to augment the great success of the current program by focusing additional resources toward defined areas of research. This year the boards have chosen two research topics for funding. The first area of focus is the exploration of systemic salmonella infection in chickens and turkeys and determination of the relation-
ship with salmonella contamination of ground poultry products. The second topic will address animal well-being and will seek research that will lead to advances in the poultry industry in this area. Funding for this initiative is estimated to be $250,000. Detailed Requests for Proposals will be released soon and deadlines for submission of proposals will be in the spring of 2014. The USPOULTRY research program is not resting on its history of success. The new Board Research Initiative will allow the research program to respond more promptly to the changing needs of the poultry industry and direct funding to specific critical topics. This new program, along with the traditional USPOULTRY research program, will help provide a bright future for the poultry industry. John Starkey is president of the U.S. Poultry & Egg Association, based in Tucker, Ga.
Technical Service Representative Upper Midwest & Northeast US and Canada
(Continued from page 5)
campaign designed to increase egg category sales. As the “Taking Back Easter 2013” campaign was recognized by the International Egg Commission (IEC) as the world’s best, I can’t wait to share results from the upcoming campaign. This comprehensive, successful campaign resulted in a 3.8 percent increase in egg category sales, as compared to
Easter 2012. This increase equated to 8.1 million more dozens sold and $40 million more in dollar sales. We’ve set the bar high, but I know our AEB team and valued partners will again exceed expectations. To date, according to AEB’s Demand Dashboard, all channels — retail, foodservice, food manufacturing and USDA’s per capita consumption — show increases for 2013. I’m thrilled with the role
AEB’s marketing initiatives play in the marketplace and how we’re able to make an impact because of producers’ investment into AEB. Lastly, I’ve always held the belief that an informed producer is a supportive producer. If you would like more information on AEB programs or recent results, please do not hesitate to contact me by phone, 847-296-7043, or by e-mail, jivy@ aeb.org.
To subscribe to Poultry Times call 770-536-2476
Hubbard LLC is a worldwide producer of Primary Poultry Breeding stock with strong commitment to our customers, employees, contract producers and especially to the welfare of our animals. Due to growth, we have an open position of Technical Service Representative. The position will be responsible for the Upper Midwest & Northeast US and Canada, and will report directly to the Company’s Technical Service Manager North America. The Technical Service Representative serves as a key member of the Technical Support Team and will provide technical support to customers as well as provide feedback to the Company’s management team. The successful candidate will be a highly motivated individual with a B.S. degree in Agriculture or equivalent. Qualified candidate should have a minimum of 10 years experience in poultry live production with an emphasis in breeder and broiler management. Duties include but are not limited to making regular visits to Hubbard LLC customers in region of responsibility, and advising and making recommendations for proper management of Hubbard products. Attendance and involvement with industry associations and regional industry meetings will also be expected. Adequate computer skills related to Microsoft Outlook, Excel, Word and PowerPoint will be needed as well. Ideal candidate will be highly self-motivated with good communication skills, have the ability to perform described duties with minimal supervision, and be located near or in the region of responsibility. Position will require significant travel. Hubbard LLC offers a competitive salary and a comprehensive benefits package. Interested candidates please send your confidential cover letter and resume before December 31st, 2013 to: Hubbard LLC Human Resources, PO Box 415, 195 Main St, Walpole NH 03608 or to rosina.zaretzki@hubbardbreeders.com or Fax: 1-603-756-4402 Hubbard LLC is an Equal Opportunity Employer www.hubbardbreeders.com
14
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
Markets
dealers assessed market conditions. Prices were trending generally steady for most items. Offerings of breast cuts and tenders were mostly moderate. Wings and dark meat items were moderate to instances heavy. Market activity for parts was slow to moderate. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights.
Compiled by David B. Strickland, Editor 770-718-3442 dstrickland@poultrytimes.net
Nat’l. Broiler Market: (Dec. prices West, of all
2): Whole broiler/fryer were steady to weak in the steady elsewhere. Offerings sizes were light to moder-
ate. Retail and foodservice demand was light to moderate following the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Floor stocks were balanced. Market activity was seasonally slow to moderate. In the parts structure, movement was light and selective as
F owl: Nov. 29: Live spent heavy fowl
Final prices at Farm Buyer Loading (per pound): range 10½-22¢
P arts: Georgia:
The f.o.b. dock quoted prices on ice-pack parts based on
truckload and pool truckload lots for the week of Dec. 2: line run tenders $1.87½; skinless/boneless breasts $1.85; whole breasts $1.07½; boneless/skinless thigh meat $1.40½; thighs 73¢; drumsticks 70½¢; leg quarters 50½¢; wings $1.23½.
N ational Slaughter: Broiler: Estimated slaughter
for week ending Nov. 30 is 134,738,000. Actual slaughter for the week ending Nov. 23 was 156,939,000. Heavy-type hen: Estimated slaughter for the week ending Nov. 30 is 990,000. Actual slaughter for the week ending Nov. 23 was 1,610,000. Light-type hen: Estimated slaughter for the week ending Nov. 30 is 628,000. Actual slaughter for the
The following chart provides an annual high and a comparison of recent activity of major poultry company stocks.
USDA Shell Eggs AMS weekly combined region shell egg prices Average prices on sales to volume buyers, Grade A or better, White eggs in cartons, delivered warehouse, cents per dozen.
Nov. 29
Company Annual High Nov. 26 Dec. 3 Cal-Maine 54.85 54.46 55.31 Campbell Soup 48.83 38.77 38.81 37.28 32.45 32.94 ConAgra Hormel 45.53 44.95 45.98 Pilgrim’s Pride 19.23 16.40 16.38 Sanderson Farms 75.53 68.95 67.66 Seaboard 2948.24 2778.51 2730.00 Tyson 32.40 31.69 32.84
Extra Large Regions: Northeast 157.00 Southeast 163.50 Midwest 153.50 South Central 163.50 Combined 159.53
Large
Medium
156.00 114.00 161.50 113.00 151.50 108.50 163.50 115.50 158.35 112.85
Computed from simple weekly averages weighted by regional area populations
Grain Prices OHIO COUNTRY ELEV. Nov. 19 Nov. 26 Dec. 3 No. 2 Yellow Corn/bu. $3.92 $4.07 $4.04 Soybeans/bu. $12.72 $13.14 $13.06 (Courtesy: Prospect Farmers Exchange, Prospect, Ohio)
(Courtesy: A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc.)
Broiler Eggs Set/Chicks Placed in 19 States EGGS SET (Thousands)
CHICKS PLACED (Thousands)
Nov. 2
Nov. 9
Nov. 16
Nov. 23
Nov. 2
Nov. 9
Nov. 16
Nov. 23
Del Fla Ga Ky La Md Miss Mo. N.C. Okla Pa S.C. Tex Va Other states
23,998 19,767 10,242 4,238 1,221 31,621 7,384 3,728 7,614 15,510 7,420 20,099 6,965 3,752 5,215 14,943 6,032 6,969
26,348 20,082 9,562 4,198 1,221 30,498 7,128 3,607 7,648 16,467 7,543 19,940 6,589 3,991 5,279 14,046 6,008 7,507
27,041 21,269 10,584 4,241 1,221 33,361 7,628 3,818 7,940 17,193 8,491 20,420 7,042 3,938 5,313 14,118 6,494 7,702
27,970 20,997 10,043 4,410 1,220 32,989 7,739 3,622 7,920 17,064 8,488 20,512 7,093 3,869 5,244 14,274 6,421 7,722
20,711 18,864 9,374 5,938 1,395 24,840 6,104 3,018 4,424 13,314 5,949 14,659 3,738 3,118 3,908 11,360 5,532 5,594
19,650 17,588 8,974 5,670 1,298 23,840 4,755 3,011 4,578 14,007 5,289 15,492 5,038 3,135 4,886 11,122 5,591 5,885
20,210 18,330 8,812 4,415 1,271 24,883 5,745 3,535 7,082 14,741 4,675 15,761 5,113 2,693 5,023 12,560 4,872 5,934
18,512 18,614 8,793 5,106 1,328 24,967 4,462 3,162 5,943 13,162 4,523 16,168 5,126 2,957 4,448 12,352 4,698 5,480
19 States Total
189,749
190,155
200,112
199,875
156,246
153,924
159,721
154,821
% Prev. yr.
105
100
102
102
103
104
102
102
Ala Ark
Ca,Tn,Wv
1/Current week as percent of same week last year.
Estimates: The estimated number of broiler/ fryers available for slaughter the week ending Nov. 30, was 157.3 million head compared to 125.4 million head slaughtered the same week last year. The estimated U.S. slaughter for the week of Nov. 30, was 135 million head, or 22.3 million less than estimated available. For the week of Dec. 7, the estimated number of broiler/fryers available is 154.9 million head, notes USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service, Poultry Programs, Market News & Analysis.
Broiler/Fryer Report
Industry Stock Report
week ending Nov. 23 was 1,458,000. Total: Week of Nov. 30: 136,356,000. Week of Nov. 23: 160,007,000.
USDA National Composite Weighted Average For week of: Nov. 29 For week of: Nov. 22
94.44¢ 95.12¢
Nov. 29 93¢-$1.02 95¢--99¢ 83¢--92¢ 83¢--92¢ 90¢--97¢ 90¢--97¢
Majority (whole body) Eastern Region: New York: Central Region: Chicago: Western Region: Los Angeles:
Negotiated prices in trucklot and less-than-trucklot quantities of ready-to-cook whole body broiler/fryers delivered to first receivers; prices in cents per pound.
Turkey Markets Weighted avg. prices for frozen whole young turkeys Weighted average (cents/lb.) F.O.B. shipper dock National Week ending Nov. 29 Last year Hens (8-16 lbs.) 101.64 108.34 Toms (16-24 lbs.) 103.17 109.80 Week ending Nov. 22 Hens (8-16 lbs.) Toms (16-24 lbs.)
105.21 103.71
Nov. avg. 105.64 104.49
Egg Markets USDA quotations New York cartoned del. store-door: Nov. 26 Dec. 3 Extra large, no change $1.63--$1.67 $1.63--$1.67 Large, no change $1.61--$1.65 $1.61--$1.65 $1.20--$1.24 $1.20--$1.24 Medium, no change Southeast Regional del. warehouse: Nov. 26 Dec. 3 $1.54½--$1.70 $1.61--$1.77 Extra large, up 6½¢ Large, up 10¢ $1.50--$1.70 $1.60--$1.77 Medium, up 8¢ $1.03½--$1.21 $1.11½--$1.29
15
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
AMERICAN EGG BOARD HOTLINE
Food Trends Tyson Foods
Chili’s
Tyson Foods has introduced new Mix & Match Creations meal options available in the freezer section at select Walmart stores. Walmart challenged Tyson to, in three steps, feed a family of four starting at $10 in 15 minutes. The new products allow consumers to create customized meals made by combining one of five Tyson proteins, one of eight family sized servings of Birds Eye vegetables and/or starch and one of six Tyson Bistro Flavors complimenting sauces. There are 76 unique meal combination possibilities to meet changing appetites and keep dinner interesting for the entire family. Meals such as Sautéed Beef with Bourbon Peppercorn sauce and Mixed Vegetables or Breaded Chicken served with White Rice with an Orange Teriyaki Glaze are as easy as 1 -2 - 3. yy More information: http:// www.tysonfoods.com
Chili’s Grill & Bar has added two new chicken-based flatbreads to its menu. They are Chipotle Chicken Flatbread with chipotle pesto, cheddar, Monterey Jack, mozzarella, cilantro, pico de gallo and tomato sauce; and California Grilled Chicken Flatbread with applewood smoked bacon, Monterey Jack, mozzarella, cilantro, fresh avocado slices, pico de gallo and roasted garlic aioli. The new dishes are available nationwide. yy More information: http:// www.chilis.com
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, a division of AFC Enterprises Inc., puts a new twist on a southern favorite with the introduction of Chicken Waffle Tenders. Popeyes takes its handcrafted, juicy, all white meat chicken tenders marinated in
Louisiana spices, then hand-batters them in a unique and crispy waffle style coating. The fried up fresh Waffle batter-coated chicken gives guests that southern savory taste, while added Honey Maple Dipping Sauces provides a hint of rich butter flavor. yy More information: http:// www.popeyes.com
Olive Garden Olive Garden is adding a line of small plates to its permanent menu. The new “Tastes of Italy” small plates feature seven dishes, including Chicken Meatballs, Grilled Chicken Spiedini, Crispy Risotto Bites, Pizza Freita Napoli, Tuscan White Bean Humus, Tortelloni al Forno and Parmesan Roasted Asparagus. The smaller menu will be available to the chain’s 800 restaurants nationwide in December. yy More information: http:// www.olivegarden.com
Index of Advertisers Acme, Cover B.................................................................................................................................................. 918-682-7791; www.acmeag.com Agrifan, 2........................................................................................................................................................ 800-236-7080; www.envirofan.com Animal Health International, Cover A.................................................................................. 817-859-3000; www.animalhealthinternationalcom Cid Lines, Cover D......................................................................................................................................................................www.cidlines.com DSM, Cover C.............................................................................................................................................. www.unlimitednutrition-na.dsm.com Ecodrum, Cover B...........................................................................................................................701-446-6139; www.ecodrumcomposter.com Farm Alarm, Cover D....................................................................................................................................800-407-5455; www.farmalarm.com Flame, 3............................................................................................................................................. 800-255-2469; www.flameengineering.com FPM, Cover D.......................................................................................................................................................402-729-2264; www.fpmne.com Gasolec, Cover D................................................................................................................................................................................800-628-4588 Grassworx, 10............................................................................................................................................................................... grassworxllc.com Hubbard, 13..................................................................................................................................................................www.hubbardbreeders.com IPS- Carefree Enzymes, 11...................................................................................................................262-878-3899; www.naturesenzymes.com Liphatech, Cover III........................................................................................................................................415-351-1476; www.liphatech.com Preserve, Cover II...............................................................................................................................................................................800-995-1607 Reeves, Cover IV.......................................................................................................................................888-854-5221; www.reevessupply.com Space-Ray, 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 800-849-7311; www.spaceray.com Star Labs, Cover B............................................................................................................................................800-894-5396; www.primalac.com Weigh Tech, Cover B................................................................................................................................ 800-457-3720; www.weightechinc.com
16
POULTRY TIMES, December 9, 2013
Corn growers remain on track for record production year WASHINGTON — U.S. corn growers remain on track for a record high 14 billion bushel production year, according to the Crop Production report, recently released by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. In addition to corn numbers, the report also included updated forecasts for U.S. citrus production, and major field crops, such as soybeans and cotton. Based on administrative data, NASS revised the acreage planted to corn this season to 95.3 million acres, down 2 percent from the previous estimate. Despite the decrease, however, production forecast remained high due to high forecasted yields. This season’s yields are expected to average 160.4 bushels per acre, with corn growers in 18 states forecast to reach record yields this year. The weather also remains good for harvest so far this year, allowing growers to harvest 73 percent of the
corn crop by Nov. 3, which is 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average harvest rate. NASS also reduced the planted area for soybeans to 76.5 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous forecast. Just as with corn, however, favorable weather conditions account for higher pod counts compared with the 2012 yield. Soybean yields are expected to average 43 bushels per acre, with the final production forecast at 3.26 billion bushels. If realized, this will be the third largest production year on record. NASS interviewed approximately 10,000 producers across the country in preparation for this report. In addition to farmer interviews, NASS also used its national and state level objective yield measurements to determine accurate yield and production forecasts. The Crop Production report is published monthly and is available online at www.nass.usda.gov.
Stock.Xchng
MU economist: strong beef price outlook for two years LAKE OZARK, Mo. — Rising beef prices would be even better in returning profits to feeding and producing cattle if based on rising demand and not shrinking supply, said a University of Missouri beef economist. Livestock producers heard optimism with a bit of caution from Scott Brown at the recent annual Missouri Forage and Grassland Conference at Port Arrowhead at Lake Ozark. Brown said with lower corn prices and higher cattle prices, it’s hard not to be optimistic about profits in the beef business. He used all fingers on his left hand to tick off reasons for optimism in 2014 and 2015. Export demand is booming, do-
mestic demand is improving, the drought monitor map looks better, U.S. cow herd has dropped more than 6 million head in 10 years and demand for quality beef continues up. He compared current outlook to the “golden era” of beef profits in 2004. “We haven’t seen these conditions in years,” he said. His charts showed a sharp rise in live-cattle futures prices since 2010, from $80 per hundred to $135. Then he showed changes in cow-calf returns from minus $25 per cow in 2009 to plus $25 in 2012. However, that average jumps to $300 per cow in 2014. That estimate is from the Livestock Market Information Center in Denver. The economist was quick to add,
“All bets are off if there is a drought in 2014.” Risks in the beef business could return in a faltering economy or disease outbreak, or if prices rise too high for consumers. A weak link is domestic demand. “Consumer disposable income will have a big impact,” Brown said. “That is recovering, but any weakness in the general economy will be felt.” The recession caused a shift away from eating out as often. “The restaurant trade helps beef prices. But you must provide a good eating experience, especially as the price goes up,” Brown told producers. The wholesale beef dollar value increased most over the past decade for USDA choice-grade beef.
Choice gained nearly $15 billion while lower-quality USDA select increased only $2 billion. More recently, the biggest gain has been in USDA prime grade returns. But that makes up a small part of the total production. Less that 5 percent of all carcasses grade prime. However, Brown cited research at the MU Thompson Farm; steers from the AI-bred herd now grade 30 percent prime when fed out. Those results from the agricultural research center are now being topped by producers who’ve adopted the protocols. “Investment in genetics can increase carcass premiums by $25 per hundredweight,” Brown said. “The research shows that it is not just in the feeding but in the genetics that
make prime possible.” The turnaround in beef will be slow because of the long biological lag between breeding and final fed steer. Pork and chicken can reenter the market quicker than beef. “We already see increased chicken consumption following their dip in marketing that started in 2008.” To compete, beef must continue to provide the flavor and tenderness that consumers want. “It’s unfortunate that high beef prices result from the loss of supply,” Brown said. “A growing economy would do the most for beef demand.” Brown, a member of the MU agricultural economics unit, covers beef and dairy policy for the MU College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.
New
aNd Improved!
D OVE N R P O IM LATI U M FOR & NEW ! PE SHA
Up to 54% more palatable - more dead rodents for your money! New gnawing edges to promote feeding Stop-feed action: rodents cease feeding after consuming a lethal dose Kills rodents within 24 - 48 hours Perfect for knocking down rodent populations when de-populating flocks or herds Breaks the anti-coagulant cycle .5oz (14 gram) mini block 130 count mini block pail, 4 pails / case Norway Rat Test - Grain Storage Facility Consumption in 13 Days
Grams Consumed
(800) 351-1476 www.liphatech.com
Grams Consumed
House Mouse Test - Grain Elevator Consumption in 31 Days
New & Improved Formulation Current Formulation
Data is based on a summary of Liphatech field study results.
Merry Christmas from
Reeves Supply
We are very thankful for your business