[Free Release] LED Industry outlook in 2011

LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Industry

Outlook in 2011

Roger Chu 02 Nov. 2010 19 November 2010| Page 1 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Our Research Department

集邦科技 Intelligence

(DRAM, Flash)

(Component,

Panel, S/I)

(LED, Applications)

(Solar,Battery)

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

About LEDinside Our Page view reaches 3.5 M per month

BeLight Magazine Global Distribution

3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Silver Member Service Standard Price: 3,000 USD

LEDinside Market

Gold Member Service

Intelligence Service

Standard Price: 12,000 USD

Subject Report

By Case

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Back

LEDinside-Silver Member Service Quarterly Price Information (EXCEL) Netbook/Notebook Application

Mobile Backlight Application Large-sized Backlight (TV/Monitor) Application Lighting (High Power) Application Quarterly Market Trend (PDF) Lighting Market Overview and Forecast Backlight Market Overview and Forecast Real-time Market Update (PDF) Show Reports Product Applications Technology Development Others

Standard Price: USD 3,000 Update Frequency: Quarterly Report Format: PDF & Excel 19 November 2010| Page 5 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Gold Member Service Worldwide LED Market Forecast and Summary

WW High Brightness LED Market Forecast(Annual) Worldwide LED Demand Forecast Mobile Application

Medium-Large Display Backlight Application Lighting Application Forecast Automotive Lighting Application Forecast Signs and Traffic Signals Forecast Other Application Forecast Worldwide LED Supply Forecast Equipment Maker Chip Maker Pkg Maker Cost Analysis Comapre to Traditional Light Source Price Forecast in White LED

Standard Price: 12,000 USD Update Frequency: Quarterly Report format: Excel

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Subject Report

Number of LED Chip Enterprises by Year 75

80 64

70 46

50

20 10

3

8

13

17

17

26

29

2005

30

2002

40

2004

38

2001

Enterprise Number

60 32

20

1H10

2009

2008

2007

2006

2003

2000

1999

1998

0

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Outline 1) LED Industry Overview 2) LED Supply Side Forecast 3) LED Demand Side Forecast 4) Competitions Between LED Industry

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Industry Overview

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Worldwide LED Revenue Ranking

WW LED Revenue in 2010 : $12.7 bn Breakdown By Region

Taiwan

19%

China

USA

China

USA

10%

10%

6%

9%

Europe

Taiwan

Europe

12%

21%

13%

Japan

Korea

HB LED Revenue in 2010 : $8.6 bn Breakdown By Region

26%

23%

Japan Korea

27%

24%

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Worldwide HB LED Market Forecast HB LED Market By Application (2010) S igns &

Ot her

Mobile

9%

appliance

S ignal A ut omotive

20,000

16%

10%

HB LED Market Forecast (2010~2014)

2010~2014 CAGR 17%

16,000

11% L arge display b a cklight

Lighting

12,000

33%

21%

8,000

HB LED Market By Application (2014) S igns &

S ignal 7%

4,000

Mobile

Ot her

appliance

5%

5%

0 L arge display

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

b a cklight

A ut omotive

29%

11%

Lighting

43%

Mobile appliance

Large display backlight

Lighting

Automotive

Signs & Signal

Other

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Supply Side Forecast

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Background of MOCVD Equipment Subsidy Policies in China



Self-sufficiency rate of China’s chip enterprises is quite low LED demand in China surged. Self-sufficiency rate of China’s LED chips is only 47%. Hence, developing epitaxial wafer / chip technology and increasing self-sufficiency rate of LED chips are the major objectives in LED development for China’s government.



Bright future in LED application market Except for a great potential in the general lighting market, new LED applications are discovered.



Official performance index As the green energy industry is greatly supported by the China government, the LED industry is seen as an important achievement.

By providing investment incentive policies, LED chip enterprises which have advanced technological know-how are expected to set up plants in China. (Yangzhou-Forepi), other local governments have also attracted the investment of leading LED chip manufacturers.

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Taiwan’s Enterprises Gain Subsidies and Close Interaction Investor

Company

Type

Notes

Changzhou Jingpin

Taiwan-capital

Xiamen Epi-sky

Taiwan-capital

Dalian Jingtian

China-Taiwan joint venture

JVS with Dalian Zhongjian and Shanxi Guangyu

Shandong Guanquan

Taiwan-capital

JVS with UMC

Unilite

Dongguan Unilite

Taiwan-capital

Formosa Epitaxy

Jiangsu Canyang

China-Taiwan joint venture

Dongguan Jingrui

Taiwan-capital

Epistar

Genesis Kunshan Genesis

Taiwan-capital

Shanxi Changzhi Arima

China-Taiwan joint venture

Opto tech

Ningbo Opto tech

Taiwan-capital

Powerchip

Xuzhou Jingwang

Taiwan-capital

Walsin Lihwa

Xian Walsin Lihwa

Taiwan-capital

Tyntek

Wuhan Yuanmao TBC (project by Fuzhou Tyntek)

Taiwan-capital

Dongguan Gaohui

China-Taiwan joint venture

Lextar

Taiwan-capital

Arima

Bright LED Electronics AUO

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Changzhou Jingpin: 30 MOCVD units

JVS with AmTran, Unity and etc

Shandong Guanquan : Over 10 MOCVD units

Long term: 50 MOCVD units Long term: 50 MOCVD units Long term: 100 MOCVD units

Long term: 100 MOCVD units 2011 plan: 5019MOCVD November units 2010| Page 14

LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Greatest Growth on LED Capacities in China MOCVD total installation volume (In Gan Base)

MOCVD installation volume in 2010

5,000

4,000 Korea

3,000

Korea

Taiwan

31%

32%

Europe US

2,000

Japan China

1,000

Taiwan

Europe 1% US 3% Japan

7%

0 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014



700 MOCVD sets are planed in 2010.



MOCVD sets in 1H10 were in S.Korea and Taiwan.



MOCVD sets plan to be installed in China in 2H10.

China

26%

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Demand Side Forecast-Backlight Market

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Application Trend for TV Backlight, 42�

- Luminous improvement and cost reduction continue to drive the market growth.

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Thick or Thin Films? Which Conducts TV Backlight ?

Edge Type

Optical Film LGP

2H092H10

2011

LED PKG

5630 6046

5630/5620 4014/7020

LGP

3.0~3.5t

2.0~2.5t

LCM

10mm

9 mm

Reflector

Direct Type

2H10~1H11 LCD Panel

LED PKG

Optical Film Diffuser Plate Reflector

32*32*1.65mm 32*28(Sharp)

Diffuser

6.0t

LCM

20~25mm

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Backlight Application Forecast



15%, and 18% respectively for LCD monitor and LCDTV in 2010



Driven by further cost and green consciousness, the penetration rate for LCD Monitor and LCD TV are projected to reach 55% and 43% respectively for 2011.



Edge-lit backlight TV is dominating the market, while direct-lit backlight is slowly emerging.

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Demand Side Forecast-Lighting Market

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Overview of LED Lighting Market in 2010 HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting -By Pkg Type

HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting -By Application Consumer Entertainment

portable

2%

Residential

4%

1%

Outdoor area

Other

2%

9% Architectural Commercial/indust

45%

rial 11% Retail display

12%

Replacement 14%



The HB LED for Lighting ,Market size in 2010 is $1.8 bn, the LED usage volume reaches 7.5bn pcs.



High Power LED accounts for 76%, viewed from package type.



The greatest application segment is the architectural lighting, but the output value of the main lighting is still at low level.

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Lighting Application Forecast



The LED lighting market is projected to grow from US$1,017M in 2009 to US$8,175M in 2014, at CAGR of 52%.



The highest growth rate will be coming from the replacement lamp, at CAGR of 92%, and we have witnessed smooth adoption in Japan market.



The outdoor lighting will be evolving regularly as technology advance, though there are some aggressive expectation, the projected CAGR is 43%.

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Replacement-Momentum of LED light bulbs decreased in Japan ＬＥＤ電球は昨年夏にシャープが従来品の半額以下の製品を発売して以降、家電各社が同水準の 価格で次々に販売。調査会社のＧｆＫジャパンによると、電球市場に占めるＬＥＤ電球の割合は、 個数ベースで０９年９月の約３％から１０年９月は約１９％に拡大している.

(2010年10月5日.東京朝刊) High Power LED Price for per klm

LED Bulb penetration rate in Japan

USD 25

100% 20

20

18

80% 16

15

10

9.22

8.44

7.78

15

7.22

60% 14 7.08

12 6.84

10.90

40% 20%

6.16

5

0%

0

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09 Price High

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

Price Low

LED

CFL

Incandescent

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Replacement-LED Light Bulb Is Emerging in the Long Term LED bulb is projected to growth from less then 2% light bulb market this year to more than 10% by 2013.Driven by performance improvement, cost reduction and government policy, LED bulb is emerging aggressively.

Demand is driven by cost reduction

LED bulb is emerging in the long term 15000

25.00

20.00

20% 15%

10000

LED Bulb Retail Price

15.00 10.00

3X

5.00

CFL Bulb 0.00 2009

2010

2011

2012

LED

AC/DC Driver

Optics

Housing

E27 Socket

Others

2013

2014

Heat Sink

10% 5000

5%

0

0%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Incandescent Lamp

Fluorescent Lamp

LED Lamp

Others

LED Lamp Penetration Rate

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Outdoor Lighting – LED Streetlights Yet To Be Supported By Policies Global Streetlight Installation Volume

LED streetlights market shares in 2010

unit:K

Others 18%

8,000

China 40%

Japan 10%

6,000 4,000

2,000

Europe 16%

0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

USA 16%

2013

Quantity of newly installed LED streetlights

Taiwan 1%

Source: LEDinside

Source: LEDinside



China: Total LED streetlights installation volume in 2009 was around 250K, 287K in 2010.



Global LED streetlight installations in 2009 amounted to about 610 K units.



LED streetlight installation is estimated to reach 743 K units by 2010.

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Competitions Between LED Industry

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Supply Chain for LED Backlight TV



Korean LED vendors enjoy more stable adoptive application from well implemented vertical integration.



More challenges for less vertical integrated Japan and Taiwan vendors on resource alignment and cost pressure.

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Lighting Competitive Landscape  Lots companies are participating in LED luminaire globally  Many companies are vertically integrated from chip to luminaire system Traditional lluminaire co.

LED focused co.

EU

TWN

Midea(美的照明)

Hemlighting(華而美) NVC(雷士) Yaming(上海亞明)

Others Edison

LiteOn Everligh t CMI Lextar (AUO)

Kumho

BridgeLux

Seoul Semiconductor LG Samsung Innotek LED

Nichia TG

Cree

Chip

China

Delta

Okamura NEC

LEDs

Korea

Rohm Citizen Sharp Toshiba

Panasonic

GE

Zumtobel Osram

Philips

Module

Japan

Kichler Acuity Nuventix

Bulb

Cooper Hubbell

Schreder iGuzzini TRILUX

System

USA

Forepi Epistar

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LED Industry Outlook in 2011

LED Policies Drive the Worldwide LED Market China: 1. 12th Five-Year plan focus on green energy 2. Industry scale > 500 B RMB in 2015 3. LED Chip Self-sufficiency rate 70% in 2015.

4. 2-3 large scale LED chip companies in 2015.

5. 3-5 leading SSL application companies in 2015.

Korea: 20 million USD for LED(2011) USA: 1. DOE “Next Generation Lighting Initiative” (NGLI) to support the R&D of SSL 2. 50 million USD from 2007-2013 3. Total 350 million USD for R&D investment in SSL 4. Reach 219 lm/w, 1000 lm /1USD in 2020 (March 2010)

Japan: 2.90 billion USD is requested for promoting the LED market (June 2010)

TW: 83 million USD investment in LED for five years (2010-2015)

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19 November 2010| Page 29

LED Industry Outlook in 2011

Thank You for Your Attention!

TrendForce/ LEDinside http://www.ledinside.com ----------------------------------------儲于超 Roger Chu Research Director rogerchu@ledinside.com

TrendForce/ LEDinside http://www.ledinside.com ----------------------------------------Joanne Wu Research Assistant joannewu@trendforce.com 19 November 2010| Page 30

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