LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Industry
Outlook in 2011
Roger Chu 02 Nov. 2010 19 November 2010| Page 1 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Our Research Department
集邦科技 Intelligence
(DRAM, Flash)
(Component,
Panel, S/I)
(LED, Applications)
(Solar,Battery)
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
About LEDinside Our Page view reaches 3.5 M per month
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Back
LEDinside-Silver Member Service Quarterly Price Information (EXCEL) Netbook/Notebook Application
Mobile Backlight Application Large-sized Backlight (TV/Monitor) Application Lighting (High Power) Application Quarterly Market Trend (PDF) Lighting Market Overview and Forecast Backlight Market Overview and Forecast Real-time Market Update (PDF) Show Reports Product Applications Technology Development Others
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Gold Member Service Worldwide LED Market Forecast and Summary
WW High Brightness LED Market Forecast(Annual) Worldwide LED Demand Forecast Mobile Application
Medium-Large Display Backlight Application Lighting Application Forecast Automotive Lighting Application Forecast Signs and Traffic Signals Forecast Other Application Forecast Worldwide LED Supply Forecast Equipment Maker Chip Maker Pkg Maker Cost Analysis Comapre to Traditional Light Source Price Forecast in White LED
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Mobile ,NB, Monitor,TV, Lighting Application 19 November 2010| Page 6 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Subject Report
Number of LED Chip Enterprises by Year 75
80 64
70 46
50
20 10
3
8
13
17
17
26
29
2005
30
2002
40
2004
38
2001
Enterprise Number
60 32
20
1H10
2009
2008
2007
2006
2003
2000
1999
1998
0
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Outline 1) LED Industry Overview 2) LED Supply Side Forecast 3) LED Demand Side Forecast 4) Competitions Between LED Industry
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Industry Overview
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Worldwide LED Revenue Ranking
WW LED Revenue in 2010 : $12.7 bn Breakdown By Region
Taiwan
19%
China
USA
China
USA
10%
10%
6%
9%
Europe
Taiwan
Europe
12%
21%
13%
Japan
Korea
HB LED Revenue in 2010 : $8.6 bn Breakdown By Region
26%
23%
Japan Korea
27%
24%
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Worldwide HB LED Market Forecast HB LED Market By Application (2010) S igns &
Ot her
Mobile
9%
appliance
S ignal A ut omotive
20,000
16%
10%
HB LED Market Forecast (2010~2014)
2010~2014 CAGR 17%
16,000
11% L arge display b a cklight
Lighting
12,000
33%
21%
8,000
HB LED Market By Application (2014) S igns &
S ignal 7%
4,000
Mobile
Ot her
appliance
5%
5%
0 L arge display
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
b a cklight
A ut omotive
29%
11%
Lighting
43%
Mobile appliance
Large display backlight
Lighting
Automotive
Signs & Signal
Other
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Supply Side Forecast
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Background of MOCVD Equipment Subsidy Policies in China
Self-sufficiency rate of China’s chip enterprises is quite low LED demand in China surged. Self-sufficiency rate of China’s LED chips is only 47%. Hence, developing epitaxial wafer / chip technology and increasing self-sufficiency rate of LED chips are the major objectives in LED development for China’s government.
Bright future in LED application market Except for a great potential in the general lighting market, new LED applications are discovered.
Official performance index As the green energy industry is greatly supported by the China government, the LED industry is seen as an important achievement. By providing investment incentive policies, LED chip enterprises which have advanced technological know-how are expected to set up plants in China. (Yangzhou-Forepi), other local governments have also attracted the investment of leading LED chip manufacturers.
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Taiwan’s Enterprises Gain Subsidies and Close Interaction Investor
Company
Type
Notes
Changzhou Jingpin
Taiwan-capital
Xiamen Epi-sky
Taiwan-capital
Dalian Jingtian
China-Taiwan joint venture
JVS with Dalian Zhongjian and Shanxi Guangyu
Shandong Guanquan
Taiwan-capital
JVS with UMC
Unilite
Dongguan Unilite
Taiwan-capital
Formosa Epitaxy
Jiangsu Canyang
China-Taiwan joint venture
Dongguan Jingrui
Taiwan-capital
Epistar
Genesis Kunshan Genesis
Taiwan-capital
Shanxi Changzhi Arima
China-Taiwan joint venture
Opto tech
Ningbo Opto tech
Taiwan-capital
Powerchip
Xuzhou Jingwang
Taiwan-capital
Walsin Lihwa
Xian Walsin Lihwa
Taiwan-capital
Tyntek
Wuhan Yuanmao TBC (project by Fuzhou Tyntek)
Taiwan-capital
Dongguan Gaohui
China-Taiwan joint venture
Lextar
Taiwan-capital
Arima
Bright LED Electronics AUO
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Changzhou Jingpin: 30 MOCVD units
JVS with AmTran, Unity and etc
Shandong Guanquan : Over 10 MOCVD units
Long term: 50 MOCVD units Long term: 50 MOCVD units Long term: 100 MOCVD units
Long term: 100 MOCVD units 2011 plan: 5019MOCVD November units 2010| Page 14
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Greatest Growth on LED Capacities in China MOCVD total installation volume (In Gan Base)
MOCVD installation volume in 2010
5,000
4,000 Korea
3,000
Korea
Taiwan
31%
32%
Europe US
2,000
Japan China
1,000
Taiwan
Europe 1% US 3% Japan
7%
0 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
700 MOCVD sets are planed in 2010.
MOCVD sets in 1H10 were in S.Korea and Taiwan.
MOCVD sets plan to be installed in China in 2H10.
China
26%
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Demand Side Forecast-Backlight Market
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Application Trend for TV Backlight, 42� - Luminous improvement and cost reduction continue to drive the market growth.
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Thick or Thin Films? Which Conducts TV Backlight ? Edge Type
Optical Film LGP
2H092H10
2011
LED PKG
5630 6046
5630/5620 4014/7020
LGP
3.0~3.5t
2.0~2.5t
LCM
10mm
9 mm
Reflector
Direct Type
2H10~1H11 LCD Panel
LED PKG
Optical Film Diffuser Plate Reflector
32*32*1.65mm 32*28(Sharp)
Diffuser
6.0t
LCM
20~25mm
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Backlight Application Forecast
15%, and 18% respectively for LCD monitor and LCDTV in 2010
Driven by further cost and green consciousness, the penetration rate for LCD Monitor and LCD TV are projected to reach 55% and 43% respectively for 2011.
Edge-lit backlight TV is dominating the market, while direct-lit backlight is slowly emerging. 19 November 2010| Page 19
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Demand Side Forecast-Lighting Market
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Overview of LED Lighting Market in 2010 HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting -By Pkg Type
HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting -By Application Consumer Entertainment
portable
2%
Residential
4%
1%
Outdoor area
Other
2%
9% Architectural Commercial/indust
45%
rial 11% Retail display
12%
Replacement 14%
The HB LED for Lighting ,Market size in 2010 is $1.8 bn, the LED usage volume reaches 7.5bn pcs.
High Power LED accounts for 76%, viewed from package type.
The greatest application segment is the architectural lighting, but the output value of the main lighting is still at low level. 19 November 2010| Page 21
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Lighting Application Forecast
The LED lighting market is projected to grow from US$1,017M in 2009 to US$8,175M in 2014, at CAGR of 52%.
The highest growth rate will be coming from the replacement lamp, at CAGR of 92%, and we have witnessed smooth adoption in Japan market.
The outdoor lighting will be evolving regularly as technology advance, though there are some aggressive expectation, the projected CAGR is 43%. 19 November 2010| Page 22
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Replacement-Momentum of LED light bulbs decreased in Japan ＬＥＤ電球は昨年夏にシャープが従来品の半額以下の製品を発売して以降、家電各社が同水準の 価格で次々に販売。調査会社のＧｆＫジャパンによると、電球市場に占めるＬＥＤ電球の割合は、 個数ベースで０９年９月の約３％から１０年９月は約１９％に拡大している. (2010年10月5日.東京朝刊) High Power LED Price for per klm
LED Bulb penetration rate in Japan
USD 25
100% 20
20
18
80% 16
15
10
9.22
8.44
7.78
15
7.22
60% 14 7.08
12 6.84
10.90
40% 20%
6.16
5
0%
0
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09 Price High
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
Price Low
LED
CFL
Incandescent
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Replacement-LED Light Bulb Is Emerging in the Long Term LED bulb is projected to growth from less then 2% light bulb market this year to more than 10% by 2013.Driven by performance improvement, cost reduction and government policy, LED bulb is emerging aggressively. Demand is driven by cost reduction
LED bulb is emerging in the long term 15000
25.00
20.00
20% 15%
10000
LED Bulb Retail Price
15.00 10.00
3X
5.00
CFL Bulb 0.00 2009
2010
2011
2012
LED
AC/DC Driver
Optics
Housing
E27 Socket
Others
2013
2014
Heat Sink
10% 5000
5%
0
0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Incandescent Lamp
Fluorescent Lamp
LED Lamp
Others
LED Lamp Penetration Rate
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Outdoor Lighting – LED Streetlights Yet To Be Supported By Policies Global Streetlight Installation Volume
LED streetlights market shares in 2010
unit:K
Others 18%
8,000
China 40%
Japan 10%
6,000 4,000
2,000
Europe 16%
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
USA 16%
2013
Quantity of newly installed LED streetlights
Taiwan 1%
Source: LEDinside
Source: LEDinside
China: Total LED streetlights installation volume in 2009 was around 250K, 287K in 2010.
Global LED streetlight installations in 2009 amounted to about 610 K units.
LED streetlight installation is estimated to reach 743 K units by 2010. 19 November 2010| Page 25
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Competitions Between LED Industry
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Supply Chain for LED Backlight TV
Korean LED vendors enjoy more stable adoptive application from well implemented vertical integration.
More challenges for less vertical integrated Japan and Taiwan vendors on resource alignment and cost pressure. 19 November 2010| Page 27
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Lighting Competitive Landscape Lots companies are participating in LED luminaire globally Many companies are vertically integrated from chip to luminaire system Traditional lluminaire co. LED focused co.
EU
TWN
Midea(美的照明)
Hemlighting(華而美) NVC(雷士) Yaming(上海亞明)
Others Edison
LiteOn Everligh t CMI Lextar (AUO)
Kumho
BridgeLux
Seoul Semiconductor LG Samsung Innotek LED
Nichia TG
Cree
Chip
China
Delta
Okamura NEC
LEDs
Korea
Rohm Citizen Sharp Toshiba
Panasonic
GE
Zumtobel Osram
Philips
Module
Japan
Kichler Acuity Nuventix
Bulb
Cooper Hubbell
Schreder iGuzzini TRILUX
System
USA
Forepi Epistar
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LED Industry Outlook in 2011
LED Policies Drive the Worldwide LED Market China: 1. 12th Five-Year plan focus on green energy 2. Industry scale > 500 B RMB in 2015 3. LED Chip Self-sufficiency rate 70% in 2015. 4. 2-3 large scale LED chip companies in 2015. 5. 3-5 leading SSL application companies in 2015. Korea: 20 million USD for LED(2011) USA: 1. DOE “Next Generation Lighting Initiative” (NGLI) to support the R&D of SSL 2. 50 million USD from 2007-2013 3. Total 350 million USD for R&D investment in SSL 4. Reach 219 lm/w, 1000 lm /1USD in 2020 (March 2010)
Japan: 2.90 billion USD is requested for promoting the LED market (June 2010)
TW: 83 million USD investment in LED for five years (2010-2015)
Source: LEDinside (October 2010) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.
19 November 2010| Page 29
LED Industry Outlook in 2011
Thank You for Your Attention!
TrendForce/ LEDinside http://www.ledinside.com ----------------------------------------儲于超 Roger Chu Research Director rogerchu@ledinside.com
TrendForce/ LEDinside http://www.ledinside.com ----------------------------------------Joanne Wu Research Assistant joannewu@trendforce.com 19 November 2010| Page 30
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