Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville ....................................................95

Short Term Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL March 2022 Forecast

2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2023:2 2023:3 2023:4 2024:1 2024:2 2024:3 2024:4 2025:1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 34.6 35.2 35.7 36.0 36.4 36.9 37.4 37.9 38.4 38.9 39.4 39.9 40.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 4.9 5.6 4.9 5.4 4.7 4.5 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 Wages and Salaries 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 Nonwage Income 18.2 18.5 18.8 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.6 Real Personal Income (12$) 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.8 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.9 32.2 32.4 32.7 33.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4 0.2 1.7 2.2 3.5 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 Per Capita Income (Ths) 55.9 57.0 57.7 58.0 58.5 59.1 59.7 60.5 61.3 61.9 62.5 63.2 64.0 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 48.2 48.8 49.2 49.3 49.5 49.8 50.1 50.5 50.9 51.1 51.4 51.7 52.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 67.4 68.2 68.6 68.9 69.4 69.7 70.1 70.9 71.7 72.5 73.3 74.1 75.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.2 5.2 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 240.0 242.9 244.6 245.1 245.6 246.7 247.3 247.8 248.3 248.4 248.5 248.5 248.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 5.5 4.7 3.3 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 Manufacturing 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.4 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 Nonmanufacturing 209.6 212.6 214.4 214.9 215.7 216.7 217.3 217.8 218.2 218.5 218.6 218.7 219.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 5.9 5.5 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 Construction & Mining 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.3 16.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 1.4 1.5 2.5 2.1 0.6 -1.1 -2.1 -2.9 -3.1 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 39.6 40.1 39.9 39.0 38.7 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.2 38.0 37.9 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.7 2.8 -0.9 -2.3 -2.1 -1.8 0.5 0.4 -2.8 -3.1 -3.3 -2.8 Wholesale Trade 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 Retail Trade 29.6 30.0 29.4 28.4 27.9 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 Information 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.0 6.7 1.0 0.3 -1.1 0.6 0.7 -1.4 -0.2 1.1 4.0 5.9 6.2 Financial Activities 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 3.3 2.6 1.7 3.0 2.6 1.5 1.9 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 Prof & Business Services 40.1 40.5 41.1 41.3 41.7 41.5 41.5 41.7 42.1 42.4 42.5 42.6 42.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.5 8.4 6.5 2.5 3.9 2.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.5 Educ & Health Services 36.9 37.2 37.5 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 38.0 38.3 38.6 38.8 38.9 39.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 6.2 5.0 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 28.8 30.0 30.4 31.6 31.9 32.5 33.0 33.0 32.8 33.0 33.0 33.0 32.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 17.0 10.5 15.4 18.0 10.7 8.3 8.4 4.3 3.0 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 Other Services 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.5 7.2 8.5 8.3 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.6 Federal Government 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.8 1.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.9 -1.7 -1.3 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 State & Local Government 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 2.6 2.0 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.8

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 618.0 618.8 619.9 621.2 622.8 624.2 625.5 626.6 627.7 628.9 630.3 631.6 633.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 Labor Force (Ths) 302.0 305.1 307.9 309.9 311.3 312.4 313.3 313.9 314.1 314.3 314.5 314.8 315.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 Total Housing Starts 6076.4 5697.0 5504.7 5273.9 5060.5 4724.4 4528.0 4423.4 4359.1 4318.5 4302.6 4284.2 4273.5 Single-Family 5112.9 4748.8 4551.1 4343.8 4106.9 3845.8 3695.1 3615.4 3540.5 3502.9 3492.1 3461.6 3465.9 Multifamily 963.5 948.2 953.6 930.1 953.6 878.6 832.8 808.0 818.6 815.6 810.4 822.5 807.5

PROFILES

The Panama City MSA, known for its beaches and emerald green water is located in the Northwest portion of the state. Panama City is the largest City between Tallahassee and Pensacola. This area is the more populated of two principal cities of the Panama City-Lynn Haven MSA and it is the county seat of Bay County.

QUICK FACTS

• Metro population estimate of 182,161 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Bay County population estimate of 182,161 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census

Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 92,543 in December 2021 (Florida Research and Economic

Database). • An unemployment rate of 3.4% as of December 2021, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 3,134 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Panama City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) will show mixed levels of growth in the studied economic indicators when compared to other MSAs. The MSA will have Gross Metro Product at $9,315.01. Average annual wage growth will average 5.4 percent, the third highest, leading to an average annual wage of $58,800. Personal income growth will average 4.9 percent, leading to a per capita income level of $49,800.

Employment growth will average 1.8 percent, ranking in the bottom half of the MSA list. However, Palm Bay’s unemployment rate will hover around 3.8 percent.

The Leisure sector will lead the way in Panama City with an average annual growth rate of 6.4 percent. The Professional & Business Services sector will follow with a growth rate of 4.6 percent, and Other services will be third at 2.9 percent average annual growth.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

OTO Development acquires SpringHill Suites in Panama City Beach

• OTO Development, a hotel development and hospitality management company based in

Spartanburg, announced Nov. 30 it acquired

SpringHill Suites Panama City Beach Beachfront at 12513 Front Beach Road for an undisclosed amount. • The 11-floor hotel features 200 guest suites and 2,610 square feet of meeting space. • The hotel joins OTO’s portfolio, which includes properties in Marathon, Cocoa Beach and St.

Pete Beach, Florida; Wrightsville Beach, North

Carolina; Oakhurst, California; and Myrtle

Beach, South Carolina. Source: UBJ, December 1, 2021

Downtown Panama City business booms in 2021

• Downtown Panama City is experiencing a major comeback. Dozens of new businesses opened in 2021, the first of which being The Press

Downtown coffee shop. • The Press was one of 37 businesses to open in

Downtown Panama City this year. The growth this year has brought in a new customer base paving the road for events and tourism in the future. • Panama City officials also invested in the growth, awarding around $138 thousand to business owners with CRA grants. Mayor Greg Brudnicki said the bulk of these grants go towards improving the exterior of the buildings. Source: myPanhandle, December 7, 2021

FedEx to build regional headquarters in Panama City; will service area from Pensacola to Tallahassee

• FedEx plans to build a new distribution center in

Panama City to service the region from Pensacola to Tallahassee, economic developers announced on Tuesday.

• According to the Bay County Economic

Development Alliance, the new 251,000-squarefoot FedEx Ground facility will support 208 jobs and will be built in the Port Panama City-owned

Intermodal Distribution Center on Highway 231. • Construction has begun and the facility is set to open in the fall. Source: Panama City News Herald, January 4, 2022

Panama City pays off $75 million debt for Hurricane Michael response and recovery

• The Panama City Commission announced during its Tuesday meeting that it had paid off the $75 million line of credit note for Hurricane Michael response, recovery and mitigation from 2019. • Hurricane Michael in 2018 caused millions of dollars in damage, destroyed hundreds of homes and downed thousands of trees. City Manager

Mark McQueen recalled the damage it left to the community, both financially, physically, and emotionally. • The total amount drawn on the loan came out to $69,054,496.83. The total interest paid on the loan was $1,769,415.05. Source: Panama City News Herald, January 14, 2022

Panama City Mall has sat mostly defunct for over 3 years. Officials just moved toward revitalizing it.

• The Panama City Commission voted Tuesday to adopt the finding of two studies that enable the Panama City Mall area to be added to the

Downtown North Community Redevelopment

Area. • Doing so moves the city forward with plans to restore the mall that has been mostly damaged and defunct since Hurricane Michael hit more than three years ago, officials say. • There are currently 860 acres in the CRA area, with the Panama City Mall adding 72 acres. Source: Panama City News Herald, February 9, 2022

Bay County’s COVID-19 cases drop 32% and 5 fewer deaths reported last week

• Bay County reported a drop in new COVID-19 cases and deaths last week. According to the latest statistics, the county’s COVID-19 rate fell 32% for a total of 1,047 cases during last week ending Sunday, down from 1,539 a week earlier. • The county also reported 11 new COVID-19 deaths last week, a drop from the 16 deaths the prior week. • Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the county has reported 45,743 cases and 740 deaths. Source: Panama City News Herald, February 15, 2022

Panama City eyes cutting alcohol sales hours after violent Spring Break weekend in PCB

• City commissioners held an emergency meeting

Wednesday to propose a change in their alcohol sales policy in response to last weekend’s Spring

Break chaos in Panama City Beach. • City officials proposed a change to Ordinance 3059, which would annually prohibit the sale of alcohol within city limits between 2 and 7 a.m. from March 1 to April 30. • For establishments selling alcohol to remain open past 2 a.m. the remaining 10 months out of the year, they must pass certain requirements, such as adequate off-street parking, criminal background checks of owners and operational security systems. Source: Panama City News Herald, March 30, 2022

Panama City MSA Industry Loca�on Quo�ents

Total Nonagricultural Employment

Total Private

Goods Producing

Service Producing

Private Service Providing

Mining, Logging, and Construc�on

Manufacturing

Trade, Transporta�on, and U�li�es

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transporta�on, Warehousing and U�li�es

Informa�on

Financial Ac�vi�es

Professional and Business Services

Educa�onal and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Government

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

Long Term Outlook for Panama City, FL March 2022 Forecast

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.4 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.9

Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries

1.8 4.3 1.5 6.9 9.2 1.7 3.6 5.3 5.2 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 Nonwage Income 4.5 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.2 Real Personal Income (12$) 8.1 8.4 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 3.5 -1.0 5.6 4.9 -2.4 1.8 3.3 3.1 Per Capita Income (Ths) 40.4 42.3 45.6 49.8 55.2 56.5 58.5 61.3 64.0 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 39.6 41.2 43.2 46.7 49.7 48.8 49.7 51.1 52.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 43.0 44.5 48.1 50.6 55.2 57.9 59.7 62.4 65.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 3.4 8.1 5.2 9.1 4.9 3.1 4.6 4.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 84.1 83.9 80.7 78.4 81.1 83.8 84.0 84.0 84.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 -0.2 -3.8 -2.9 3.4 3.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 Manufacturing 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.6 -4.9 -1.8 4.9 0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 -1.1 Nonmanufacturing 80.8 80.8 77.7 75.2 77.9 80.6 80.8 80.8 81.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 0.0 -3.9 -3.2 3.6 3.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 Construction & Mining 5.1 5.5 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 7.6 24.8 1.8 4.8 -0.3 -5.6 -6.2 -4.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 16.5 16.1 15.7 15.8 16.4 17.0 16.4 15.8 15.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -2.4 -2.1 0.2 4.0 3.7 -3.4 -3.5 -1.7 Wholesale Trade 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 Retail Trade 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.8 12.4 12.9 12.3 11.6 11.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Information 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.8 1.0 -10.7 -19.2 -4.2 -3.6 -6.3 0.8 4.5 Financial Activities 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.0 -1.9 5.0 4.2 1.6 -0.7 1.0 0.6 Prof & Business Services 11.0 10.9 11.1 10.0 10.7 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 -1.0 2.0 -9.7 6.4 7.4 2.9 1.8 0.9 Educ & Health Services 11.6 11.6 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 -0.1 -17.0 -0.9 -1.0 0.3 0.9 2.9 2.2 Leisure & Hospitality 14.2 14.2 13.0 11.7 12.8 14.0 14.7 15.0 15.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 -0.1 -8.9 -9.6 9.3 9.2 5.0 1.9 1.0 Other Services 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.3 -6.3 -3.0 0.3 5.3 1.1 5.0 5.1 Federal Government 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.6 -4.4 5.5 -0.8 1.8 1.1 0.1 -0.2 State & Local Government 10.5 10.4 9.8 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -0.7 -5.9 -4.4 -0.7 -1.1 0.4 0.7 0.4

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 204.8 203.8 192.2 187.8 184.9 183.9 184.0 184.8 186.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 -0.5 -5.7 -2.3 -1.5 -0.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 Labor Force (Ths) 94.2 93.9 89.7 87.8 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7 93.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -0.2 -4.5 -2.1 5.4 0.5 -0.5 0.2 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.2 4.1 3.9 6.2 4.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 Total Housing Starts 1493.7 1501.1 1704.8 1930.6 2132.1 1757.3 1478.0 1396.8 1386.8 Single-Family 952.2 1104.3 1398.9 1529.5 1489.2 1262.1 938.0 849.9 837.0 Multifamily 541.5 396.8 305.9 401.1 642.9 495.1 540.0 547.0 549.8