Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent ..................................................... 105

Short Term Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL March 2022 Forecast

2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2023:2 2023:3 2023:4 2024:1 2024:2 2024:3 2024:4 2025:1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.3 30.7 31.0 31.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 4.1 5.3 4.6 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 Wages and Salaries 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 Nonwage Income 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 Real Personal Income (12$) 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.8 -0.5 1.4 2.0 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 Per Capita Income (Ths) 51.7 52.5 53.1 53.4 53.8 54.4 54.9 55.5 56.1 56.6 57.2 57.7 58.3 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 46.1 46.5 46.8 46.9 47.1 47.4 47.6 47.9 48.2 48.4 48.7 48.9 49.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 59.7 60.3 60.7 61.0 61.4 61.8 62.1 62.9 63.6 64.3 65.0 65.6 66.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.3 4.6 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.3 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 193.0 195.3 196.5 197.0 197.4 198.7 199.5 199.9 200.2 200.3 200.5 200.6 200.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 5.1 5.1 3.5 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 Manufacturing 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -1.5 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 Nonmanufacturing 185.9 188.2 189.4 189.9 190.3 191.5 192.3 192.8 193.1 193.3 193.5 193.7 193.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 5.2 5.2 3.6 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 Construction & Mining 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 4.9 1.9 -1.4 -1.1 -1.9 -3.0 -3.6 -4.1 -4.1 -3.9 -3.6 -3.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 35.4 35.9 35.7 34.9 34.5 34.9 34.8 34.9 34.7 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 5.8 4.0 -0.5 -2.4 -2.6 -2.3 0.1 0.5 -2.3 -2.5 -2.6 -2.4 Wholesale Trade 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 Retail Trade 24.8 25.2 24.7 23.9 23.5 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.5 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 Information 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -0.8 -3.4 -0.8 -2.6 -1.2 -1.1 -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 2.4 4.3 4.7 Financial Activities 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 7.5 5.3 2.7 3.7 3.7 3.0 4.0 3.6 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.5 Prof & Business Services 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 2.5 5.5 2.4 3.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.7 Educ & Health Services 31.6 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.9 32.1 32.4 32.6 32.9 33.1 33.2 33.3 33.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 26.7 27.7 28.2 29.3 29.5 30.2 30.9 30.9 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.9 12.0 15.9 18.2 10.4 9.1 9.8 5.3 4.0 1.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Other Services 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 4.7 7.5 8.2 4.6 1.7 -0.2 0.3 0.9 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 Federal Government 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 7.2 8.2 2.4 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 State & Local Government 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.5 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 523.2 524.5 525.6 526.7 528.1 529.5 531.1 532.5 533.7 534.9 536.2 537.4 538.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 Labor Force (Ths) 244.1 246.8 249.0 250.7 251.5 252.4 252.8 253.0 253.0 253.0 252.9 252.9 252.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.0 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 Total Housing Starts 3475.8 3247.0 3082.3 2996.7 2881.1 2792.6 2734.7 2689.2 2634.9 2606.0 2564.8 2553.4 2541.8 Single-Family 2907.9 2772.7 2734.2 2689.4 2635.7 2580.5 2543.9 2494.4 2438.6 2409.5 2369.9 2351.8 2352.6 Multifamily 567.9 474.3 348.1 307.3 245.4 212.0 190.8 194.8 196.3 196.5 194.9 201.6 189.2

PROFILES

The Port St. Lucie MSA is a city on the Atlantic coast of southern Florida. Located in St. Lucie county, this municipality is the most populous in the county. Known for its Botanical Gardens and the waterways of the North Fork St. Lucie Aquatic Preserve which are home to manatees, river otters, egrets and alligators.

QUICK FACTS

• Metro population estimate of 472,012 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Martin County population estimate of 159,065 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • St. Lucie County population estimate of 312,947 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census

Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 233,433 in December 2021 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 3.5% as of December 2021, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,223 unemployed people (Florida Research and

Economic Database).

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Port St. Lucie Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show slightly below average levels of growth in its economic indicators. Port St. Lucie’s Gross Metro Product will be $17,859.20. Average annual wage growth of 5.3 percent will lead to an average annual wage of $58,400, ranking twentieth in the state. Personal incomes will grow by 5.3 percent. This will lead to a per capita income level of $56,800, the fifth highest in the state. Population growth will average 1.3 percent.

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 3.3 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 4.3 percent.

The Leisure sector will lead Port St. Lucie at an average annual growth rate at 8.1 percent. The Professional & Business Services sector and the Other Services sector will expand at respective rates of 6.5 percent and 4.6 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

Port St. Lucie voters approve renewal of economicdevelopment tax-abatement program

• Voters Tuesday approved renewing a city taxabatement program for another 10 years in a special referendum. The program will help the city continue to attract companies paying above the county average wage of $40,640. • The program, which is used throughout the

Treasure Coast, does not affect homeowners’ property taxes. Rather, it’s an economicdevelopment tool that provides performancebased incentives to encourage new construction, capital investment and job creation. • FedEx, Cheney Brothers and Sansone Group are recent examples of companies that were awarded incentives, such as temporary tax breaks, through the program. Source: TC Palm, December 7, 2021

WalletHub: Port St. Lucie ranks last on ‘2021’s Most Sinful Cities in America,’ study finds

• The seventh-largest city in Florida has gained plenty of recognition nationwide, named one of the oldest cities, best places to retire and safest cities to raise a child. A new study now ranks it the least sinful city in America. • The Wallethub study analyzed seven categories, including anger and hatred, jealousy, laziness and greed. To analyze anger, the study included information like violent crimes and hate-crimes and for greed the study turned to charitable donations. • Of cities within the state of Florida, Miami and

Orlando scored the highest and clenched the No. 8 and No. 19 spots, respectively. Source: TC Palm, December 14, 2021

Wylder residential development joins Amazon, Wavegarden, Willow Lakes at I-95, Midway

• The new, 1,970-acre, 4,000-home residential community at the intersection’s southwest corner broke ground January 11. Wylder will include 3,400 single-family homes, 600 multifamily units and other neighborhood amenities. • Wylder joins two other large-scale projects at the intersection of Midway Road and I-95: an

Amazon fulfillment center and the proposed

Wavegarden and Willow Lakes Resort Village communities. • The City Commission Tuesday unanimously gave its first approval for Phase 1A site plans for the two other communities. A final vote is expected next month. Source: TC Palm, January 20, 2022

Omicron cases causing staffing shortages at businesses, impacting trash pickup in St. Lucie County

• Many businesses and services are again being impacted by the spike in COVID-19 cases as the omicron variant spreads across Florida. • Library hours have been scaled back and trash pickup delayed as the spike of cases and workers calling out sick disrupts daily life in St. Lucie

County. • To help control the spread of omicron, officials in St. Lucie County will be distributing more than 5,000 at-home COVID test kits beginning

Wednesday at 9 a.m. at the county’s six branch libraries. Source: WPTV, January 24, 2022

Swing and a miss: Jupiter restaurants and hotels brace for weeklong spring training delay

• Historically, MLB spring training has pumped $15.3 million into Port St. Lucie’s local economy.

The continued lockout, however, means spring training games will be delayed until at least

March 4. • After the pandemic canceled spring training in 2020 and limited seating in 2021, Jupiter and

Port St. Lucie expected a return to normalcy.

Nearby hotels, which would normally be packed with Mets fans visiting Clover Park, can expect a decline in revenue. • Restaurants will also be affected by the lockout.

Brian Downing, the owner of Tail Gator Brews and Grill – just a mile from Clover Park – expects a 50% decline in revenue compared to 2019. With low traffic also comes uncertainty for employees, who may be sent home depending on future business. Source: The Palm Beach Post, February 22, 2022

‘There’s no catch:’ IRSC offers free tuition to Treasure Coast high school graduates

• At a special assembly for 12th-grade students at

Fort Pierce Central High School, Indian River

State College announced the IRSC Primise

Program – which provides tuition-free Associate’ degrees to qualifying 2022 graduates. • Sponsored by the IRSC Foundation, the IRSC

Promise Program comes at a critical time. One million fewer students are enrolled in higher education today than two years ago. Rising consumer prices, including the cost of college, have made college less accessible. • The program should help not just students but the greater community. Seventy-six percent (76%) of

IRSC students stay in the local community after graduation, contributing to the local economy as workforce members and as consumers. Source: The CW 34, March 3, 2022

Port St. Lucie MSA Industry Loca�on Quo�ents

Total Nonagricultural Employment

Total Private

Goods Producing

Service Producing

Private Service Providing

Mining, Logging, and Construc�on

Manufacturing

Trade, Transporta�on, and U�li�es

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transporta�on, Warehousing and U�li�es

Informa�on

Financial Ac�vi�es

Professional and Business Services

Educa�onal and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Government

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

Long Term Outlook for Port St. Lucie, FL March 2022 Forecast

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 25.2 26.4 27.7 29.3 31.6 32.5 34.2 36.0 37.9

Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries

6.3 4.8 4.7 5.7 8.1 2.7 5.3 5.2 5.2 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.7 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.1 Nonwage Income 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.7 22.9 22.8 24.1 25.4 26.7 Real Personal Income (12$) 23.8 24.5 26.2 27.4 28.5 28.1 29.1 30.0 30.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 3.1 7.1 4.5 3.8 -1.4 3.5 3.2 3.1 Per Capita Income (Ths) 54.1 55.9 57.5 59.7 63.3 64.2 66.8 69.7 72.6 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 50.9 51.7 54.5 55.9 57.0 55.4 56.7 58.0 59.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 44.3 45.4 46.9 50.2 55.0 57.8 59.3 61.7 64.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.4 3.3 7.0 9.6 5.1 2.5 4.0 4.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 146.1 151.3 155.6 151.2 157.3 166.6 170.7 171.8 172.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 3.5 2.9 -2.8 4.0 5.9 2.5 0.7 0.3 Manufacturing 6.8 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 2.5 8.3 -1.3 5.3 4.2 0.8 -1.1 -1.9 Nonmanufacturing 139.3 144.3 148.1 143.8 149.4 158.5 162.5 163.7 164.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 3.6 2.6 -2.9 3.9 6.0 2.5 0.7 0.4 Construction & Mining 10.2 11.3 12.0 12.3 13.2 13.7 13.8 13.4 13.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 10.6 5.9 2.4 7.5 3.9 0.8 -2.8 -2.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 31.0 31.2 31.0 30.8 30.9 31.9 31.5 31.0 30.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.4 3.3 -1.2 -1.8 -0.8 Wholesale Trade 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 Retail Trade 21.3 21.5 21.2 20.8 20.7 21.2 20.6 19.7 19.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.5 4.6 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 Information 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -5.2 -1.4 -11.1 12.4 6.8 -3.8 0.5 4.3 Financial Activities 5.6 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 -0.6 7.1 0.3 2.7 3.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 Prof & Business Services 17.6 19.2 20.7 21.6 24.2 26.1 27.2 27.8 28.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 9.0 8.1 4.3 11.9 8.1 4.2 2.0 0.8 Educ & Health Services 26.8 27.5 28.6 27.7 28.1 29.1 29.6 30.5 31.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 2.8 3.7 -3.1 1.3 3.7 1.7 2.9 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 19.3 20.5 20.9 17.8 19.4 22.4 24.2 24.2 23.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 6.0 2.3 -14.9 9.1 15.0 8.3 0.0 -1.4 Other Services 8.0 8.2 8.0 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 2.3 -2.1 -7.7 2.6 8.5 3.0 4.2 4.7 Federal Government 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.0 2.5 5.4 -7.3 4.2 -0.3 -1.9 -0.8 State & Local Government 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.1 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.2 19.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.7 0.6 -3.3 -1.9 3.4 3.1 1.6 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 466.4 473.5 481.3 490.8 499.7 506.2 512.3 517.1 522.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.0 Labor Force (Ths) 211.0 215.4 219.9 217.4 227.4 237.8 241.3 241.2 241.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.1 2.1 -1.1 4.6 4.6 1.5 0.0 0.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.9 4.2 3.9 7.3 4.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 Total Housing Starts 2158.7 3583.0 4092.1 4955.4 6773.1 5861.4 4457.4 4151.6 4106.4 Single-Family 2085.9 2794.4 3572.7 4607.0 5664.4 4808.2 3661.1 3351.3 3286.4 Multifamily 72.8 788.6 519.4 348.4 1108.7 1053.2 796.3 800.3 820.0