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North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton................................................ 80
Short Term Outlook for North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL March 2022 Forecast
2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2023:2 2023:3 2023:4 2024:1 2024:2 2024:3 2024:4 2025:1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income 57.1 58.1 59.1 59.7 60.6 61.5 62.6 63.7 64.8 65.6 66.4 67.3 68.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 3.3 4.9 4.8 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.7 5.3 Wages and Salaries 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.3 Nonwage Income 37.3 37.9 38.6 39.0 39.5 40.2 41.0 41.7 42.6 43.1 43.7 44.3 45.0 Real Personal Income (12$) 47.4 48.0 48.6 48.9 49.4 50.0 50.7 51.3 51.9 52.3 52.7 53.1 53.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.5 -1.3 1.1 2.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.0 3.7 3.3 Per Capita Income (Ths) 66.0 66.8 67.6 68.0 68.6 69.4 70.4 71.3 72.3 72.9 73.5 74.3 75.0 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 54.8 55.2 55.6 55.7 56.0 56.4 56.9 57.4 57.9 58.1 58.4 58.6 58.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 60.9 61.8 62.3 62.6 63.0 63.4 63.8 64.3 64.8 65.4 65.9 66.5 67.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.1 4.8 4.0 3.5 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)
Total Employment 322.8 325.6 327.7 330.3 332.2 334.5 337.2 339.3 341.2 342.5 343.5 344.5 345.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 5.5 4.5 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.2 Manufacturing 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 4.9 1.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 Nonmanufacturing 305.4 308.2 310.4 312.9 314.9 317.2 319.8 322.0 323.9 325.2 326.3 327.3 328.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 5.5 4.7 3.7 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.3 Construction & Mining 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 6.1 3.8 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 62.2 63.2 62.9 62.0 61.8 62.6 62.6 62.8 62.5 61.5 61.3 61.0 60.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 6.5 4.6 1.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 1.3 1.1 -1.7 -2.1 -3.0 -2.8 Wholesale Trade 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 Retail Trade 45.8 46.5 45.5 44.4 43.8 44.6 44.3 44.3 43.6 42.4 41.9 41.4 40.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 Information 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.8 2.6 3.1 3.6 5.0 2.3 -0.5 -1.3 -1.4 1.2 3.1 3.6 Financial Activities 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 4.3 4.5 3.9 3.1 1.5 -0.4 0.3 1.3 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.0 Prof & Business Services 52.1 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 53.1 53.5 54.1 54.9 55.3 55.5 55.6 55.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.5 10.3 7.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.8 3.4 4.1 3.6 2.7 1.7 Educ & Health Services 60.6 60.3 60.6 60.2 60.2 60.0 60.7 61.1 61.8 62.2 62.4 62.6 63.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.5 6.3 1.5 0.0 -0.7 -0.4 0.2 1.5 2.7 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 Leisure & Hospitality 39.7 40.8 41.5 44.6 46.1 47.5 48.8 49.1 49.3 50.0 50.6 51.0 51.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 -0.3 6.1 15.4 16.0 16.2 17.5 10.0 7.0 5.3 3.6 4.0 3.8 Other Services 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 2.1 5.6 5.3 4.7 2.4 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.7 Federal Government 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2 2.0 9.1 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 State & Local Government 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.7
Other Economic Indicators
Population (Ths) 865.0 869.4 873.8 878.2 882.5 886.3 889.8 893.2 896.6 899.9 903.1 906.3 909.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 Labor Force (Ths) 389.3 393.3 396.8 399.8 401.9 404.1 406.3 408.2 409.3 410.2 410.7 411.4 411.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 4.4 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 Total Housing Starts 13323.8 11838.6 10815.4 9929.7 9305.3 8898.8 8650.7 8516.1 8396.7 8294.8 8221.6 8146.9 8090.2 Single-Family 10910.5 9633.4 8815.4 8082.2 7503.8 7098.8 6850.4 6749.5 6624.9 6546.1 6509.1 6436.1 6419.7 Multifamily 2413.3 2205.2 2000.0 1847.5 1801.5 1800.0 1800.3 1766.6 1771.7 1748.8 1712.6 1710.8 1670.5
PROFILES
Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.
QUICK FACTS
• Metro population estimate of 353,526 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Marion County population estimate of 365,579 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 146,284 in December 2021 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 4.0% as of December 2021, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 5,831 unemployed people (Florida Research and
Economic Database).
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show weak levels of growth in its economic indicators. Ocala’s Gross Metro Product is $10,697.58. Average annual wage growth of 5.2 percent will lead to an average annual wage of $54,900, among the lowest in the state. Personal incomes will grow by 6.0 percent, the fourth highest in the state. This will lead to a per capita income level of $40,40. Population growth will average 1.8 percent.
Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.7 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 4.8 percent.
The Leisure & Hospitality sector will lead Ocala at an average annual growth rate at 7.2 percent. The Professional & Business Services sector and the Other services sector will expand at respective rates of 2.2 percent and 7.0 percent.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
Ocala/Marion: Christmas tree inventory is in flux; if your stand is empty, fill it now
• Local shoppers are hitting the big box stores, seasonal businesses and tree farms searching for the perfect tree amid swirling reports of tree shortages and higher prices. • At Trinity Catholic High School, tree sales were cut nearly in half because of a lack of inventory from the North Carolina supplier who cited smaller crop planting during the economic downturn of the 2008-2009 season. • Doug Hundley, spokesman for the Coloradobased National Christmas Trees Association (realchristmastrees.org), said in a phone interview there is “not a nationwide shortage of trees’’ but there can be localized shortages. He also expects prices of real trees to rise “about 5 to 10 percent” this year due to increased shipping costs and reduced supply. Source: Yahoo Sports, December 4, 2021
DeSantis announces preventative COVID-19 monoclonal treatment available on limited basis
• The state has allocated 3,100 doses of
AstraZeneca’s Evusheld, an antibody combination intended to prevent individuals from contracting COVID-19 to Ocala Regional
Medical Center. • The state plans to have Evusheld available within two hours of all Florida residents. • In a press conference, it is clear that Florida will continue taking a treatment-focused approach to
COVID-19, including monoclonal antibodies, before or after infection rather than mandates and closures. Source: Ocala Star Banner, December 17, 2021
Marion County commissioners approve grant agreement for Heagy Burry Park improvements
• Marion County commissioners have unanimously approved a grant agreement with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) for improvements to the Heagy Burry Park and
Boat Ramp. • According to county staff, the park has an estimated $2 million economic impact each year based on information provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. • These improvements are expected to increase boating access and accessibility to Orange Lake in Marion County. County staff feels that the improvements will enhance the local community by providing a premier venue for outdoor recreation, sport fishing, and tournaments. Source: Ocala-News, January 19, 2022
No clowning around: CEP’s top five-year goal is to bring commercial airlines to Marion
• The top priority given at the annual Ocala Metro
Chamber & Economic Forecasting Partnership (CEP) was to secure passenger air service at
Ocala International Airport. • The CEP surpassed its job, wage and capital investment goals, and set new goals for 20222026, which include 5,000 new jobs and $500 million in additional capital investment. • Additional goals include increased workforce housing, boosting female workforce participation rates, and create more incubators such as health care with laboratory space. Source: Ocala Star Banner, February 22, 2022
Marion County storm was EF-1 tornado with 110 mph winds causing over $12 million in damage
• The strong storm that passed through Marion
County on Saturday was an EF-1 tornado with a maximum sustained wind speed of 110 mph according to the National Weather Service. • The estimated property loss - including structural damage, loss of personal property, and the cost of debris removal – is $12.3 million. • The official response included Governor
DeSantis’ inclusion of Marion on a list of counties where a state of emergency was declared, as well as a statement by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity which invited affected businesses to complete an assessment at
Ocala’s hot housing market explained, where cash is king
• According to recent numbers from Florida
Realtors, sales rose in the Ocala market by nearly 3% in February, and the median sales price on homes is up 39%. On average, homes are selling just 15 days after being put on the market. • Market prices had been stable until now when demand exceeds what agents have in inventory.
According to Realtor Larissa Ortiz, there are only enough houses on the market to last about a month. • Ortiz said that people from around the world, including India, China, Canada, Puerto Rico, and Mexico are coming to Ocala to live, putting a massive strain on the housing market.
OMCAR President Virginia Wright said that the hot market “…kind of priced out some of our local citizens”. Source: WCJB 20, March 22, 2022
Ocala MSA Industry Loca�on Quo�ents
Total Nonagricultural Employment
Total Private
Goods Producing
Service Producing
Private Service Providing
Mining, Logging, and Construc�on
Manufacturing
Trade, Transporta�on, and U�li�es
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transporta�on, Warehousing and U�li�es
Informa�on
Financial Ac�vi�es
Professional and Business Services
Educa�onal and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Long Term Outlook for Ocala, FL March 2022 Forecast
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income 12.9 13.5 14.2 15.5 16.9 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.8
Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries
6.0 4.6 5.2 9.4 9.0 2.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.2 Nonwage Income 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.5 11.3 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.6 Real Personal Income (12$) 12.8 13.3 13.9 15.0 15.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.2 4.1 8.5 4.7 -1.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 Per Capita Income (Ths) 36.1 37.1 38.3 41.0 43.7 44.1 45.9 48.1 50.4 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 35.8 36.7 37.5 39.7 40.7 39.4 40.3 41.4 42.6 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 41.1 42.3 43.7 47.4 51.7 54.2 55.6 57.9 60.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 2.8 3.2 8.5 9.2 4.8 2.5 4.1 4.4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)
Total Employment 103.0 105.7 108.4 105.9 108.7 114.1 116.7 117.6 118.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.7 2.5 -2.2 2.6 5.0 2.3 0.8 0.4 Manufacturing 8.1 8.6 9.3 9.5 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 5.3 7.8 2.6 6.5 5.3 0.5 -0.9 -2.1 Nonmanufacturing 94.8 97.1 99.1 96.4 98.6 103.4 106.0 107.0 107.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.4 2.0 -2.7 2.2 4.9 2.5 1.0 0.7 Construction & Mining 7.3 7.8 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 8.0 8.0 2.2 3.0 4.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 24.7 25.4 26.1 26.2 27.3 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 2.7 2.7 0.6 4.2 5.4 0.0 -1.4 -0.6 Wholesale Trade 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 Retail Trade 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.7 17.4 17.1 16.4 15.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.5 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 Information 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 -5.2 -17.4 -17.3 -4.5 1.8 0.6 3.6 5.3 Financial Activities 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.6 0.7 -2.4 -1.5 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.8 Prof & Business Services 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 5.3 0.1 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.1 Educ & Health Services 18.5 18.8 18.8 18.3 18.4 19.2 19.7 20.4 20.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.7 0.2 -2.7 0.7 3.9 2.7 3.6 2.5 Leisure & Hospitality 12.9 13.1 13.5 11.6 12.2 13.8 15.1 15.3 15.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.1 2.6 -13.7 4.7 13.2 9.4 1.6 -0.4 Other Services 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -2.5 1.5 -5.6 4.5 12.8 4.9 5.7 5.6 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.0 3.6 19.7 -7.5 4.2 -0.8 -2.1 -0.6 State & Local Government 14.1 14.2 14.5 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.9 14.1 14.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 0.7 2.2 -5.0 -1.3 -0.6 2.9 1.5 0.8
Other Economic Indicators
Population (Ths) 357.0 363.1 370.2 378.9 387.5 394.9 401.5 407.0 411.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 Labor Force (Ths) 133.7 135.7 139.2 138.5 145.4 149.2 150.7 150.6 151.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.5 2.6 -0.5 5.0 2.7 1.0 0.0 0.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 4.4 4.0 7.2 5.7 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 Total Housing Starts 2075.0 2646.7 2415.4 3628.6 5977.7 5413.5 3861.0 3483.9 3427.9 Single-Family 1923.3 2600.2 2403.9 3612.3 5674.0 4888.4 3627.3 3288.4 3230.0 Multifamily 151.7 46.5 11.5 16.3 303.7 525.1 233.7 195.5 197.9
