Better Together - Community Resilience for an Uncertain Future A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR HOMMELVIK Arne Jenssen Hamish Hay Karla Cristina Flores Nikoo Mohajermoghari
Abstract
Introduction
Flooding one of the most significant risks facing urban areas today, and climate breakdown and human development will continue to worsen their impact on communities. Traditional ‘hard’ engineering solutions to flooding are seen as increasingly unaffordable, whilst ‘soft’ engineering and adaptive approaches can offer resilience in the face of uncertainty. This report examines flood risk from rivers and surface water in Hommelvik, Norway, in the scenario of limited resources but with Malvik Kommune as the Disaster Management Authority, and proposes a Contingency Plan.
Background
Using academic frameworks for assessing resilience, it examines the significance of flood risk for infrastructure, buildings, people and institutions and concludes that despite strong social networks within the community, there is a very low level of awareness of flood risks, a lack of community and household-level preparedness, and little investment in physical protection. The Contingency Plan proposes building on the existing strengths of the community including social, physical and natural assets. By building widespread awareness, strengthening network capital and enhancing water retention through Natural Catchment Management approaches, the resilience of the community could be enhanced. Furthermore, by embracing uncertainty (Kato & Ahern, 2007) through continuous monitoring, learning and adaption, the approach offers insights for communities around the world in long-term resilience building. Figure 1: Map of Hommelvik
As part of AAR5220 Urban Contingency Planning and Practice, we were given a group assignment to prepare a contingency plan on a hypothetical crisis of unexpected floods in the Trondheim area. Our outline of a hypothetical scenario consists of: Risk and threats in a low-density area can provide its own unique challenges and opportunities.
LOW DENSITY
We can expect more and more intense floods due to heavy rainfall. Rivers running through populated areas are especially exposed.
FLOODS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
Forces us to be creative to raise necessary funds and making low cost spatial interventions
LIMITED RESOURCES
Helps make the required changes and implement plans that can decrease the risk of disaster.
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT Figure 2: Characteristics of scenario
LOW, MEDIUM AND HIGH RISK SCENARIO 1
LOW: Seasonal surface water flooding
Seasonal surface water flooding can be problematic and cause preventable structural damage each year
2
MEDIUM: 1-in-200 year flood
Based on the NVE 200-year flood map of Hommelvik. This is a more intense version of the seasonal surface water flooding scenario.
3
HIGH: Future ice dam event
"Shock" event based on the ice dam event that occurred in 2002. A dam breach together with intense floods can create a shock effect to the flood caused by heavy rainfall. Figure 3: Scenarios
The case: Due to our scenario outline we have chosen to examine the village and the administrative centre of Malvik municipality, Hommelvik, as it fits well with the given scenario. The village is home to around 5400 people, and lies by the Trondheimsfjord, 25 kilometres east of Trondheim. The river, Homla, runs through the village. There are examples of extreme flooding in the past (NRK,2002) and the risk of yearly flooding due to snowmelt. This poses risk to the nearby buildings and its inhabitants.
future. According to The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), the Homla is prone to a water rise of 6 – 7 meters due to a potential 200-year flood. The area affected by the flood, outlined by blue shading in Figure 4, contains many homes and important institutions, like the primary school. Scenarios with low, medium and high impact will be the basis for this report and the contingency plan. Each of these scenarios are described in more detail in the contingency plan.
The Homla is prone to extreme flooding in the Figure 4: Flood risk map for Hommelvik
NVE Aktsomhetskart for Flom MaksimalVannstandstigning 2-3m 4-5m 6-7m NVE Aktsomhetskart for Flom Flom_aktosomhetsomrade
Approach and Theoretical Background Flooding is the most widespread natural hazard affecting urban areas (Liao, Le and Nguyen, 2016). In the last decades, there has been a change from structural and large-scale flood protection to adaptive flood risk management (FRM). This acknowledges that floods cannot be prevented and explores how to reduce the suffering and vulnerability of disaster-prone communities (Schelfaut et al., 2011). While traditional flood management is focused on controlling and fighting water, an adaptive flood risk governance approach accepts flooding as a natural phenomenon and is meant to accommodate water through strategies such as ‘space for the rivers’ and ‘managed retreat’ to reduce the impacts of floods (Mees, Driessen and Runhaar, 2014). However, resilience is not just about built structures and can also depend on communities. The characteristics of resilient communities is the ability to reduce, prevent and cope with the flood risk. They must be able to demonstrate the ability to buffer the event, self-organise before, during and after, and adapt and learn from the event (Schelfaut, Pannemans et al. 2011, Keogh, Apan et al. 2011). In order to do so, they improve their capacities in different phases of the contingency plan. Community awareness and preparedness for flood are two important entities of resilient communities (Schelfaut et al., 2011). For instance, the understanding of the essence, cost and effectiveness of people’s action can increase community awareness. Based on an study conducted year 2006, monetary damage of flooding in urban areas can be reduced by around 80% if the residents exhibit self-protective behaviour. However, another study conducted in Glomma, Norway found that less than half the participants would immediately obey an order to evacuate, and a third would wait and see, which was a result of poor community awareness (Keogh, Apen et al. 2011). Apart from the raised awareness and preparedness, a bottom-up involvement is also needed where local knowledge and concerns of Figure 5: Overview of Hommelvik
local communities are translated back into flood risk management. Local communities should become an active player in the whole, rather than merely executing higherlevels decisions. For instance, this principle is laid down in the Swedish Government’s legislation as ‘proximity’. This means that major emergencies should be managed locally where they occur by authorized public personnel at the lowest possible decision making level, only assisted by regional and national levels when necessary (Mees, Driessen and Runhaar, 2014). For communities to be confided with such responsibility the authorities must ensure they understand the rationale behind decision-making. Private sector of flood damage control and flood recovery raises the issue of whether citizens (1) have sufficient sense of urgency of what is at stake and (2) have the capacity to take action on flood remediation and flood recovery, and to what extent this might result in differences in flood risk allocation and actual flood damage. Irrespective of the type of arrangement, for these private responsibilities to be perceived as legitimate, public authorities must take responsibility for the communication of flood risks on a continuous basis. Public authorities could also play a role in increasing the capacity of more vulnerable citizens/ neighbourhoods through, for instance, subsidy programs for adaptive building measures, and/ or ensure equal access to insurance programs (in some countries, flood insurance does not currently exist) (Mees, Driessen and Runhaar, 2014).
Analysis Methodological Approach Our methodological approach aims to achieve our vision of building long-term, sustainable flood resilience in Hommelvik whilst considering constraints such as the limited resources available, and the need to account for process uncertainty and environmental uncertainty, (Zandvoort et al., 2018) especially due to climate breakdown. Reflecting our focus on people and communities, resilience in this context is: “the capacity of the community of Hommelvik to function in the face of flood risk so that those living and working there can survive and thrive” Adapted from Arup’s City Water Resilience Index (Arup, 2015)
Developing a framework The team integrated multiple academic approaches suitable for low-resource contexts. ‘A framework for urban climate resilience’ proposes an operational framework for urban climate resilience (Tyler and Moench, 2012) as shown Figure 6. In particular, it identifies how agents and institutions can build resilience by increasing: •
Responsiveness e.g. ability to predict, plan for and prepare for a threat;
•
Resourcefulness e.g. ability to mobilise assets, such as community buildings, in the face of a disaster; and
Figure 6: Resilience planning, after Tyler and Moench, 2012
SA FE
AGENTS
SHARED LEARNING
S EM
AG E
NT RESPON SIV S EN ES RESOU S RC + EF L UL NE
RE
UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY
IVERSITY ST Y&D LIT SY IBI NDANCY EX EDU FL &R Y IT AR
FA IL MO U DU L
RN EA SS
CLIMATE EXPOSURE
BUILDING RESILIENCE
SYSTEMS
TION ACCE ORMA SS INF ISION MAKING DEC
ITUTIONS INST
INSTITUTIONS
LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
CATALYTIC AGENT
SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE
STEPS FOR STAGE OF CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS PLANNING
PRACTICES FROM PHILIPPINES
after Ohara et al., 2018
1
UNDERSTANDING CURRENT CONDITIONS
2
IDENTIFYING RISK
Flood Risk Simulation workshop understandable by the community Understanding the probability of events with different impacts
3
Identifying problems communities may face in the event of a flood
4
DEVELOPING RESPONSE STRATEGIES
A workshop where the participants were requested to share opinions on necessary actions
5
6
SHARING EVIDENCE-BASED CONTINGENCY PLANS
The community and local authority developed a contingency plan based on the previous steps, with the help from the experts. The developed contingency plan has been shared among community members and with other municipalities.
Figure 7: Contingency planning steps
PRACTICAL METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES FOR HOMMELVIK
after Tyler and Moench, 2012
Administering interviews and questionnaires to local government officials Interviews at selected individual households
ANALYSING IMPACT
DEVELOPING EVIDENCE-BASED CONTINGENCY PLANS
APPROACHES TO RESILIENCE PLANNING
IDENTIFYING CURRENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF HOMMELVIK THROUGH SURVEYS.
UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITIES IN AGENTS, SYSTEMS AND INSTITUTIONS
IDENTIFYING SCIENTIFIC AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
UNDERSTANDING CURRENT AND FUTURE RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH SURVEYS DESKTOP ANALYSIS, AND THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXAMINING THE IMPACT PATHWAYS AND RECEPTORS THROUGH SURVEYS AND SITE VISITS.
USING CASE STUDIES TO INSPIRE RELEVANT RESPONSES
BUILDING RESILIENCE IN AGENTS, SYSTEMS AND INSTITUTIONS HARNESSING SCIENTIFIC AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE TO IDENTIFY APPROPRIATE RESPONSES
DEVELOPING FIVE CONTINGENCY PLANS
SHARING AND CRITIQUING THESE PLANS
•
The capacity to learn e.g. ability to internalise past experiences, avoid repeated failures, innovate and improve performance.
As highlighted by Rauws (2017), embracing uncertainty (both environment and process uncertainty) in planning involves “supporting learning and adjustment over time”, implying a continuous process of learning and adjustment . The framework demonstrates resilience planning as an-ongoing loop of understanding vulnerability, and building resilience. A second academic inspiration was ‘A Framework to Evaluate Community Resilience to Urban Floods’ by Ming et al. (2020). It identifies five indicators of community resilience to urban floods, which were developed through quantitative methods in three villages in Nanning, China. Our temporal approach to development the plan was the ‘six steps of evidence-based flood contingency planning’ proposed by Ohara et al. (2018), which was also applied to a case in The Philippines. The stages of our approach, and associated theoretical inspirations, are summarised in Figure 7.
Research Methods for data collection Our approach to data collection includes qualitative and quantitative, with the aim of understanding the risk of flooding, the resilience of the community, and how the strengths of the community can be built-upon to ensure long-term resilience into the future.
Site Visit During the early stages of the process one member of the team carried out a limited site visit with the aim of understanding the dimensions of community resilience (as explained in Figure 12). In particular, it aimed to: •
Confirm the location of buildings and infrastructure and the public realm in relation to sources of flood risk (part of ‘the built environment’ dimension)
•
Understand the character of the community in terms of social networks, social cohesion and demographics, attitudes to and awareness Figure 9: An unmaintained drainage channel in Hommelvik
Figure 8: Bridge over the river Homla
of flood risk (‘socio-economic status’ & ‘organisations and institutions’ dimensions) •
Recording the nature of the natural environment in and around Hommelvik, particularly around green spaces, planted areas and slopes which can influence the incidence of flood events (‘natural environment’ dimension).
As part of this, the team member conducted informal outdoor interviews, recorded observations and took photographs.
Online engagement and survey Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, arranging formal and informal face-to-face interviews proved difficult. Therefore, we produced an online survey in Norwegian and posted in on Facebook groups representing various local organisations in Hommelvik. The full survey is available in the Appendix. “A survey is a systematic method of collecting data from a sample of people to provide a statistical description of the population from which the sample is drawn” (Ringdal, 2013) The questionnaire can be composed in many different ways dependent on the goal of the questionnaire. When forming a survey, it is important to not ask leading questions, not use difficult language and to form questions in such a way that every person should interpret the question in the same way. It is important with sufficient amount of answers in a survey for a general population to be able to generalise the answers. This is because the answers should be representative for the whole population to be used in any conclusive matters. To get the desired people to answer a survey one must make it broadly available in relevant forums. It is integral that people outside the desired population do not answer the survey, so it should only be made available in the right forums. (Ringdal, 2013).
Data collection This report is based on the theory used in AAR 5220 - Urban Contingency Practice and Planning. Relevant complementary sources were found according to NTNU’s site about finding and be critical towards sources (NTNU, 2020). Figure 11: Screenshot of our online survey
Figure 10: The river Homla
Analysis Methods SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
How accurate are the flood risk forecasts for Hommelvik?
How exposed are building and infrastructure to flood risk? Is the public realm designed to account for this, including flood defences and green infrastructure?
Do relevant contingency or disaster preparedness plans exist at present?
SOCIAL
The stakeholder analysis proceeded to identify the different organisations at the national, regional and local levels that would intervene in the event of a disaster, as shown in Figure 13.
THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
Are the right organisations in place to take on the role of Disaster Management?
NATURAL
The Directorate for Civil protection and Emergency Planning (DSB) In the area of national preparedness, DSB is an organization that works at national level in the area of emergency preparedness, it has the mission of coordinating, developing and maintaining emergency, preparedness and response plans, it works in collaboration with the Ministry of Justice and the Police. As well as assessing and reporting to the Ministry and the Government in connection with national crisis management. Aims to identify risks and vulnerabilities in the community, in order to prevent accidents and crises and its objective is to maintain a full overview of the risk and vulnerability in society. (European Commission, 2017)
SOCIAL ECONOMIC STATUS
Stakeholder Analysis
PHYSICAL/ MANUFACTURED
APPLICATIONS TO COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO FLOOD RISK IN HOMMELVIK
What is the level of uncertainty?
AND INSTITUTES
As explained in Figure 12, community resilience to flooding can be considered in terms of five ‘dimensions’ (Ming et al., 2020), which can be closely mapped to the ‘5 capitals’ approach to sustainable development (Forum for the Future).
SOCIAL
ORGANISATION
Mapping community strengths and assets
THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
CAPITALS
SOCIAL/ECONOMIC /FINANCIAL
Does the river catchment help attenuate or mitigate floodwaters?
Are residents aware of or prepared for flood risk? What is the level of social cohesion? Are there individuals or groups with a very high level of vulnerability?
Figure 12: Indicators of resilience to flooding
The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE): Due to the fact that a contingency plan is being developed in case of flooding, one of the authorities that would intervene on behalf of the national government is the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, which operates under the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy.
Figure 13: Stakeholder organisations in the event of a disaster
MINISTRY OF JUSTICE AND THE POLICE
MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND ENERGY
NATIONAL POLICE DIRECTORATE
REGIONAL
DIRECTORATE FOR CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY PLANNING (DSB)
COUNTRY ADMINISTRATION BOARD (COUNTY GOVERNOR)
LOCAL
NATIONAL
GOVERNMENT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COUNCIL
MUNICIPALITY CIVIL EMERGENCY PLANNING
THE NORWEGIAN WATER RESOURCES AND ENERGY DIRECTORATE (NVE)
NGOs
LOCAL RESCUE SUBCENTRES (RSC)
The NVE overall responsibility is the prevention of damages caused by flood, in this regard some of its functions include assist local authorities to identify hazards, analyse and evaluate the risk associated with flooding and determine appropriate ways to eliminate or control flooding. (Ortega et al,, 2020) Ministry of Justice and the police: The Ministry of Justice and the Police are in charge of managing the coordination of work in “safety, security and emergency planning within the civil sector in general”. (European Commission, 2017). This includes the responsibilities for decision making in the area of preparedness systems. The Council for emergency planning is responsible for managing the budget and creating policies along with other ministries.
Figure 14: Houses at risk of flooding.
County Administration Board (County Governor) “The County Governor is the government’s representative at the county level. The County Governor has regional coordination responsibility for civil protection.”. (Norwegian Ministry of Justice and Public Security, 2018). One of their responsibilities is to prepare a risk and vulnerability analysis in collaboration with other regional actors in the County in order to maintain an overview of the situation and to have a common platform to anticipate incidents as well as to strengthen coordination between regional organisations. (Norwegian Ministry of Justice and Public Security, 2018) Municipality Municipalities are responsible for the continuous functioning of essential services in emergency conditions. Their main responsibility is to address any peacetime emergency. One way to deal with these emergencies is to establish local crisis management plans. In addition, municipalities are required by law to undertake civil emergency preparation for the health sector. (European Commission, 2017)
Findings Site Analysis Hommelvik is a 2.85km2 village with a density of 1,900 inhabitants per square kilometre, lower than the density of 2,400 inhabitants per square kilometre experienced in Trondheim. It is nestled in a compact bay with steep wooden slopes running Figure 16: Stream in Hommelvik.
Figure 15: Play area in Hommelvik.
Figure 13: Houses at risk of flooding
down to the village from the east, south and west, with the sea to the north. The residential areas comprise of primarily detached wooden houses, surrounded by large gardens with plenty of vegetation and significant spacing (>10 metres) between them, with wide roads and plenty of parking spaces, as shown in Figure 14. The areas have a very ‘village-like’ feel, with few barriers or fences. The eastern part of the village is considered a kulturlandskap verdifulle, or valued cultural landscape, for planning purposes. As shown in Figure 17, there are a significant number of large cultural institutions dotted around the site, including a church, primary school, middle school, cultural centre, sports facilities and the buildings of the Malvik Kommune. The major north-south highway, the E6, runs to the south of the whilst the major Nordland railway line from Trondheim – Bødo runs just to the north of the village along an embankment adjacent to the sea. Both of these pieces of infrastructure are vital links between southern and northern Norway. The catchment area around the village is heavily forested with primarily commercial forestry, with multiple small streams running down into the village through a number if disused dams. As significant area of upstream forestry is A områder hovednaturtype skog, or type A protected forestry, which is the ultimate responsibility of the Norwegian Environment Agency1. At the time of visiting, there was evidence of significant snowmelt occurring. The Homel river itself runs to the east of the village directly adjacent to residential areas and sports facilities, and is fast-flowing and around 20 metres wide.
Site Visit The short site visit revealed important findings around the spatial and social landscape of Hommelvik through field observations and four informal interviews. The interviews revealed a strong community spirit, with people socialising and interacting on the street and inside institutions such as Café Rampa. There was a very low level of awareness of the risks of flooding in the town, especially amongst the younger interviewees, and of risks to the village Figure 18: The river Homla. https://www.environment.no/topics/biodiversity/protected-areas/; https://faktaark.naturbase.no/?id=VV00003197 1
Figure 17: Cultural institutions include the Kommune (up), church (left), and Culture House (right)
Area of 1-in-200 year flood risk from rivers
TRONDHEIM FJORD
Schools Sports areas
RAILWAY STATION
Public institutions
KOMMUNE BUILDINGS
RESIDENTIAL STEEP SLOPES
ABANDONED DAM
ABANDONED DAM
CULTURE HOUSE
HEALTH CENTRE SMALL STREAMS
RESIDENTIAL STEEP SLOPES
ST
MIDDLE SCHOOL
MIDDLE SCHOOL
TEEP SLOPES
RESIDENTIAL
ay
H E
Rive rH om la
i H E6
w h g
Figure 19: Indicative map of Hommelvik
in general. Notably, the site visit took place during the Covid-19 global viral pandemic, and residents noted that this had little impact on their day-to-day life. The team noted that this could reflect a wider attitude towards risk management as a whole, and possible a low ‘capacity to learn’ from past events (Tyler and Moench, 2012). The informal interviews have been developed into four personas, as shown in Figure 20.
Dimensions of vulnerability to flooding As described by Ming et al. (2020), the vulnerability of communities in Hommelvik to flooding has been outlined in terms of five dimensions as shown in Figure 21. These highlight existing strengths and weaknesses as well as opportunities for harnessing improvements that could form part of the contingency plan. Particular strengths include the presence of public buildings outside of risk areas as well as strong social and economic capital and networks in the community. However, weaknesses include a very low level of awareness of flooding and impermeable surfaces within the village itself.
WEAKNESSES
STRENGTHS
THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ORGANISATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS
“PRUDENCE”
“There’s a strong community spirit in town, with people helping each other out and looking out for each other. The corona crisis hasn’t really affected us to be honest, even though it must be the biggest disaster we’ve ever faced! We’ve never experienced flooding except during the 2002 ‘ice dam’ event when children were briefly kept away from school. It didn’t affect us much though”
“Hmm, yes there is a minor issue with flooding. Especially, when we have heavy rain or snowmelt, the surface water comes rushing down and can cover the roads and flood peoples cellars. It’s never really been an issue though. I think the last time this happened was two years ago”
Two elderly ladies in their late seventies, enjoying a drink in Café Rampa, who have been retired for many years and lived in Hommelvik their whole lives.
An elderly lady recently retired, out doing her shopping in the local farm shop.
“ANDERS”
“MOKOLAJ”
“I’ve only lived here for about 10 years, but never heard of any flooding or flood risk before!”
“I’ve never heard of any flooding here”
Young working man who lives in the hills around the town.
A recent immigrant to the town who lives directly adjacent to the river..
Figure 20: Illustration Figure 21: Indicators of community vulnerability to flooding, based on Ming et al. (2020)
SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS
THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY NVE has identified flood risks within the village and data is freely available
Some existing flood defences and drainage channels adjacent to the village
Presence of Kommune and multiple social associations in village
Strong sense of community spirit and cohesion
Heavily planted, permeable upstream catchment
Some multi-story stone/brick public buildings are constructed away from areas of flood risk
Two health centres within the village
Evidence of mutual support during Covid-19 crisis
Much of the catchment is protected as a Nature Reserve
Primary school and some residential areas exposed to flood risk
No Disaster Management Authority (DMA) assigned at present
Very low level of awareness of flood risk in the village
Very steep slopes, streams, with some areas of deforestation around the village could lead to high levels of water run-off during heavy rains
Detailed data on return period of fluvial or surface water flooding is not available
Immigrant communities in the village may not have such strong socio-economic networks
High proportion of hard surfacing and few permeable/natural features within the village itself
Little evidence that the future risk of ice dams is considered
Potential to increase awareness of flood risk by harnessing existing strong social networks
Working with landowners to reduce runoff from the upstream catchment could control flood risk
Opportunity to conduct and publish more detailed flood risk mapping for Hommelvik
Permeable surfaces and ‘green’ features in the village centre could help attenuate floodwater
Opportunity to create flood warning systems for homes and public buildings in at-risk areas
Potential risk to transport infrastructure and services Cellars are particularly exposed to flooding
OPPORTUNITIES
“HILDE AND GERD”
Opportunity to use public buildings for emergency shelters during crises
Kommune has the potential to act as the Disaster Management Authority (DMA)
Opportunity to create drainage and water storage as part of the public realm
Potential to hardness existing community institutions for flood planning and response
Stakeholder map NATIONAL
Among the organizations included are Malvik Jager & Fiskerforening, Historielagt Hommelviks Venner y Lions Club Malvik Therefore, they should be included in the process as they will probably be the first to respond. An analysis was made of the power and willingness of these actors who would intervene if necessary as shown in Figure 22.
Outcomes of online survey The purpose of the survey was to get a broader understanding of the local knowledge concerning flood risk, risk management and the local community. The survey was posted on the Facebook group: “Hva SKJER i Malvik”. The group is described as a bulletin board for everyone in Malvik Municipality, where one can share information about local events, pictures and companies. The group has 5500 members and it is the largest online forum one can reach the population of Malvik and Hommelvik. The survey got 30 responses. This is generally not a large enough selection of the entire population to generalise the answers, but since many questions have written answers and many of the answers are quite one sided, they could still have use. The survey and the answers can be found in the attachments.
LOCAL
EV
DSB
Malvik kommune (DMA)
County Emergency Council
P O W E R
Previously, several actors were mentioned who are part of the emergency response in Norway. This intervention is taking place in a community with a low population density where communitybased social organisations have an important role, as they provide us with pre-existing links in the community.
REGIONAL
Malvik Jeger & Fiskerforening
Historielagt Hommelviks Venner
Lions Club Malvik
I N T E R E S T Figure 22: Stakeholders power-interest analysis
On a scale from 1 (no) to 5 (yes), are you aware of the flood risk in Hommelvik? 1 No 2 3 A little 4 5 Yes
36.7% 10%
43.3%
On a scale from 1 (weak) to 5 (strong), how strong is the "sense of community" in your local community?
26.7%
1 Weak 2 3 4 5 Strong
33.3%
36.7%
Figure 23:Results from survey
Case Study: Natural Catchment Flood Management Approaches “Healthy river catchments store water in the landscape and slow the flow of water downstream”, and ‘Natural Flood Management’ approaches aim to restore and replicate natural processes associated with rivers, catchments and floodplains (Catchment Based Approach, 2020). Flood risk can be reduced in the following ways: 1. Increasing water storage – storing water reduced peak runoff flows e.g. by restoring flood plains and creating attenuation ponds. 2. Increasing catchment roughness - reduces runoff flows by, for example, planting, creating hedgerows and meandering rivers. 3. Increase losses – removing surface water through infiltration or evaporation by, for example, reducing soil compaction, constructing infiltration ponds or plant cover.
Figure 24: An example of a ‘leaky dam’ constructed in the Upper Slad Valley for reducing surface water runoff intro Stroud.
Such measures can be trickier to implement when compared to traditional solutions (such as hard embankments), as they often require co-operation across an entire river catchment with multiple stakeholders, and the outcome of interventions can be hard to predict. However, when implemented effectively they can be low cost and bring multiple additional benefits. In Stroud, UK, is a Natural Flood Management project with a tiny budget that worked with public bodies, private companies, farmers, other NGOs and local communities to restore natural drainage and reduce flood risk following a major flood in 2007. Similar to Hommelvik, Stroud is surrounded by steep-sided hills that are vulnerable to rapid water runoff. Across the 250km2 catchment over 400 small interventions were constructed over just four years. These include ‘leaky dams’ for attenuating water, ‘soakaways’ to encourage infiltration into the ground, extensive tree planting and soil erosion protection. These were installed by forming close partnerships between multiple organisations including landowners and community groups and harnessing existing sources of funding. Required maintenance is minimal, the quality of the natural environment has been improved, and existing partnerships formed during the project should be maintained. Since completion of the project, riverrunoff has been dramatically reduced during storm events, and no flooding has been recorded.
Figure 25: A comparison of the downstream river stage before the project (2012) and during (2016) for a comparable rainfall event
Figure 26: Flooding in Stroud in 2007.
The Contingency Plan
01
02
03
04
05
06
HYP O P T H E T I C A L S C E N A R I O
Low impact: Seasonal surface water flooding. Medium impact: 1-in-200-year flood. High impact: Future ice dam event.
RESPONSE STRATEGY
Building a resilient community: Based on raised awareness. Natural Catchment Management: Community-driven approach. Change of building codes and regulations: Through research working in collaboration with universities.
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
Short-Term: Better preparation, developing Information resources and sharing them with the Community. Mid-Term: The six-step evidence based contingency plan held by the existing DMA Long-Term: Play Out The Contingency Plan
O P E R AT I O N A L S U P P O R T P L A N The Disaster Management Authority as the main stakeholder, it is responsible for ensuring sufficient funds and proper communication between the other stakeholders
P R E PA R E D N E S S P L A N
In this case, preparedness is focussed around awareness, information, and coordination.
BUDGET AND TOOLS
Focussed on harnessing existing community assets wherever possible and identifying alternative sources of funding. Figure 27: Overview of Contingency Plan
LOW IMPACT
Scenarios Low impact: Norway’s scientists predict that with worsening climate change there will be increased precipitation. During the winter this mean greater snowpack on the hills and mountains. As for the spring this means more intense rainfall. This scenario is described as the most highly probable, but with the lowest overall impact. Due to the high intensity of rainfall, the Homla river could overtop, causing mainly material damage and affecting infrastructure, mostly homes located along the riverbanks. Without taking precautionary measures this scenario can be problematic in addition to causing preventable structural damage to infrastructure. The affected houses would suffer damages such as flooding in basements and some roads would be affected causing mobility issues. Medium impact: This scenario is based on the NVE 200-year flood map of Hommelvik. It is a more extreme form of the scenario described above. In this situation the Homla river could have a water rise of 6-7 meters. In this scenario it is not only the houses that would be affected, along the Homla river several important institutions are located, from the school, banking institutions, shops, the stadium to the Hunting and Fishing Association of Malvik would be affected, as well as damage to roads and bridges that would impact the mobility of the area. High Impact: Currently, about 30% of annual precipitation in Norway falls in the form of snow. Climate change is expected to change the contribution of snow and rain in different ways. As a result, the magnitude and frequency of precipitation in the face of snowmelt floods in Norway will also change (Vormoor, 2016). In 2002, during the winter, accumulated ice masses caused flooding in Homla. Due to the lack of preparation for this event, the municipality was forced to try to dynamite the ice and finally use machinery. However, this resulted in several of the roads and garages being partially submerged (Elgåsen 2002). In this scenario, due to the snowmelt in the Homla the flooding would be extreme causing damage to important infrastructure, houses and roads.
On winter greater snowpack on the hills and mountains. As for spring more intense rainfall. Most highly probable, but with the lowest overall impact.
Due to the high intensity of rainfall, the Homla river overflowed.
Mostly homes located along the riverbanks were affected. damages include flooding in basements, and affected roads.
MEDIUM IMPACT
Based on the NVE 200-year flood map of Hommelvik.
Extreme form of the scenario described above.
The Homla river could have a water rise of 6-7meters. Not only the houses would be affected, also important institutions, as well as damage to roads and bridges.
HIGH IMPACT Currently, about 30% of annual precipitation in Norway falls in the form of snow.
Climate change is expected to change the contribution of snow and rain in different ways.
Based on 2002 flooding
Due to the snowmelt the flooding would be extreme causing damage to important infrastructure, houses and roads Figure 28: Scenarios description.
Response Strategy The main utility of a response strategy in a plan of contingency is developing appropriate humanitarian responses based on the defined scenario. So far, we have identified the characteristics of our target community and context, Hommelvik, and we are taking into consideration the pre-defined elements of our scenario. Based on these we focus on the following main objectives to build our contingency plan upon: 1. Building a resilient Community Based on our localised flood mitigation approach, we would like to create resilience in the Hommelvik community. To do so, we need to first, raise awareness because based on our field research it seems like not many people are aware that there’s a risk of flooding. Second by giving information in a simplified manner, understandable by most, we promote flood preparedness; and through our disaster management authority we create a local-level commission made of community gatekeepers to benefit from local knowledge and bottomup decision making and develop a contingency plan based on the six-step process suggested
by Ohara et al.. 2. Natural Catchment Management Due to limited financial resources it’s not possible to count on robust flood prevention structures. For example, in the Netherlands, it is estimated that building a new dike costs in the region of 200 million NOK/km per meter of dike raised (Aerts, Water and Climate, 2018) which we consider to be unaffordable for Hommelvik. Part of the strategy is a community-driven approach to natural catchment management, by working with landowners to install costeffective catchment solutions – such as leaky dams and attenuation ponds. 3. Change of building codes and regulations through research Hommelvik is located close to Trondheim and many NTNU campuses. This proximity to such a large knowledge and technology base can turn Hommelvik to a study case for flood prevention studies. In the longer run, these research and suggestion can result in change of building codes, zoning and regulations.
Figure 29: Representation of response strategy in practice.
Implementation Plan Figure 30: Implementation plan.
RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
NATURAL CATCHMENT MANAGEMENT
(0-1 YEAR)
SHORT TERM
Better preparation (e.g. Supply of sandbags, not storing valuables in basements)
Developing information resources and sharing them with the community (e.g. Information Campaign, Art Project)
CHANGE OF BUILDING CODES AND REGULATIONS THROUGH RESEARCH
RISK COMMUNICATION / DURING CRISIS PROCEEDINGS
Allocate proper resources to establishing network bridge Create a Catchment Management Authority
Install evacuation signs Create the network bridge between NTNU and Malvik Municipality
The six-step evidence based contingency plan held by the existing DMA
Construction of leaky dams, soakaways, infiltration ponds, plant cover
Play out the Contingency Plan
Monitoring and Maintenance
(5+ YEARS)
(1-5 YEARS)
MEDIUM TERM
The six-step evidence based contingency plan held by the existing DMA
LONG TERM
Improve flood modelling and warning systems (e.g. river height reading stations) Conduct research and suggest new regulations and master plans
Enforcement of planning legislation
Flood Risk Mapping Prepare an additional professional team on-call in case of flooding event. (From Trondheim perhaps)
Operational Support Plan The main utility of an operational support plan is to identify the resources and the stakeholders available, the needs in a response and ensuring sufficient funds and communications between the stakeholders. It is important to focus on the operational support plan because we have an identified potential crisis and we want to involve the community in the preparing, implementation, and response part of the contingency plan. Example of such community groups also referenced in the stakeholder map are Malvik Jeger & Fiskerforening, Historielagt Malviks Venner and Lions Club Malvik.
The municipality are responsible the conduction of impact assessments for measures and planes that could have significant effects on the environment and society (Lov om planlegging og byggesaksbehandling, 2014). A cooperation with NVE would be beneficial here to assess the potential risk in the future.
In our scenario we have disaster risk management authority the main authority would be the Disaster Management Authority. They would oversee the training and the delegating of responsibility to different stakeholders and the community because of the limited resources. Figure 31: How the Disaster Management Authority works with other stakeholders.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY (MALVIK KOMMUNE / MUNICIPALITY)
FIRE DEPARTMENT
HEALTH DEPARTMENT
NTNU DEPARTMENT OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT
MUNICIPALITY COUNCILS: USER COMITTEES ELDERS COUNCIL SPORTS COUNCIL
NORWEGIAN CIVIL DEFENCE / NORWEGIAN MILITARY
YOUTH COUNCIL NVE
Municipal functions Government functions
NETWORK BRIDGE
POLICE DEPARTMENT
CULTURE COUNCIL
COMMUNITY LEADERS
Preparedness Plan Disaster preparedness is defined as the “knowledge, capabilities, and actions of governments, organizations, community groups, and individuals to effectively anticipate, respond to, and recover from [hazards]” (Chan and Ho, 2018). Preparedness planning focusses on actions that can be taken before a crisis to improve the response. In this case, preparedness is focussed around awareness, information, and coordination.
knowledge is sound information. Actions will include: •
Partnering with local hiking or outdoors sports to report the presence of ice dams.
•
Lobbying NVE to create more detailed longterm flood mapping of Hommelvik for multiple risk levels with predicted water depths and velocities
•
Working with the national government to provide automatic risk assessments for all addresses, based on the national folkeregister
Greater Awareness Awareness involves ensuring the community “perceives” the risks of flooding and has the “preparedness knowledge” to respond appropriately. Chan and Ho note that “gender, age, education, and family income have potential to affect an individual’s emergency preparedness” and therefore a tailored approach is required (2018). For reaching children, it is recommended that both the primary and secondary school integrate awareness of flood risk into their curriculums. It is proposed that a fund is made available for a lowcost art project (Figure 32) to highlight the risk of flooding in the face of climate breakdown, in collaboration with local associations.
Figure 33: Large-scale art used as part of climate protests in Bristol, UK
More Effective Coordination Building close relationships between existing associations, harder-to-reach groups (such as recent immigrant populations), the Kommune and national authorities such as NVE is an important tool for leveraging social capital and other community assets during a crisis. The Kommune will host a workshop with representatives of all local groups, businesses and educational/cultural institutions in order to:
Figure 32: An art project in Bristol, UK, dramatically highlights the potential impact of rising seas levels (Trust New Art Bristol)
•
Identify more vulnerable individuals and groups who are at greater risk from flooding.
•
Assign community ‘first responders’. In the event of a crises would be responsible for informing and working with vulnerable groups to help them move to places of greater safety.
•
Allocating ‘safe spaces’ in community buildings, that can be used as emergency shelters in the event of severe flooding.
Better Information “Less knowledge about the causes of flood events was associated with lower flood risk perception” (Chan and Ho, 2018, p. 97), and the basis of
Budget and Tools The contingency plan is based on the assumption of a very limited budget, but a strong disaster management authority. Therefore, the approach is Estimated budget
Item
($ > $$$$$)
focussed on harnessing existing community assets wherever possible and identifying alternative sources of funding.
Source of funding
Comments
Short and medium term measures
Risk communication
$ (Relatively low cost – estimated at around 200 NOK per household)
Malvik Kommune
To include household-level information on flood risk in Hommelvik and mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery in the event of a crisis.
Installation of simple evacuation signs
Malvik Kommune, fundraising from local businesses, and the Arts Council Norway
Art project (biannual)
$$ (Relatively low cost, consider harnessing funds from other sources)
Community coordination workshop
$$ (Assuming venue is free, Malvik Kommune primary cost is staffing)
Hosting community coordination and preparedness workshop. Attendees to include community groups, police service, fire service, the Red Cross and others.
Flood risk mapping
N/A (Possible staff time from Malvik Kommune)
Lobbying NVE to create more detailed flood risk mapping for Hommelvik
Network bridge
$$
Malvik Kommune
Malvik Kommune NTNU
Household-level flood resilience
$$$$ The cost to individual homes could be in the order of 20,000-100,000 NOK for Individual households wet or dry flood proofing (Aerts, Water and Climate, 2018)
A bi-annual fund to promote community-level art to highlight the changing risks of flooding.
Knowledge sharing for better planning regulations The cost of building household-level resilience into properties at risk of flooding. Both ‘dry’ and ‘wet’ measures could be considered. ‘Dry’ measures and isolate and waterproof the house against floodwater, whereas ‘wet measures’ allow flood water to enter and retreat with minimal damage to assets.
Long term measures Changes to planning regulations and area masterplan(s)
N/A (Possible staff time from Malvik Kommune)
Malvik Kommune
$$-$$$ Around 4 million NOK (estimated from Stroud Rural SuDS). Cost if NVE, Malvik Kommune, Homla Catchment primarily for staff coManagement landowner contributions ordinating landowners for the construction of low-cost interventions.
Lobbying the Planning department to consider household-level mitigations for new developments. To ensure the mandatory use of Sustainable Urban Drainage (SuDS)
Creating a consortium for effective catchment management
Discussion & Conclusion Reflections on process and challenges The situation that Covid-19 has created can be a good representation of how timely contingency planning can mitigate the possible disturbances. The probability of a pandemic happening has not been an unknown factor and many have predicted that as before a pandemic will happen again eventually. If the necessary measures have been taken after the last similar events such as SARS or Ebola outbreak, then today we wouldn’t have to spend months in quarantine. However, the lessons that can be learned from this event are quite priceless. National or international health care systems, individual lifestyles, politics, our approach towards globalization and how we are treating our surroundings might or might not change. But the lesson we took in this course was the importance of interaction in a fieldwork. Unlike our experience last semester, this time we weren’t able to familiarize ourselves enough with the context of our study and the study lacks more one-on-one interviews that otherwise would have verified and evaluated the extent to which our approach can be efficient in Hommelvik.
Discussion Based on the scenario with flood due to heavy rainfall, limited financial resources, disaster management authority and a thorough analysis of the area we have created a contingency plan specific to Hommelvik. We believe that the contingency plan is general and flexible enough to be implemented in other areas with the same scenario, given that a local analysis of the area and its population takes place. Due to the findings from the survey and the informal interviews we can conclude that the flood risk awareness in the area is low and according to the survey, the people do not know who or which organisation has the management responsibility in a flooding situation. This makes it difficult to create a tailored approach. When working with the community and the community leaders we can spread awareness, coordinate low cost physical preventative measures, and inform about the routines in the event of a crisis.
In many parts of the process the community can be integrated. With a small budget and a strong focus on community engagement, low cost, physical and natural preventative measures is a natural action. Examples of this is tree planting along the river in vulnerable areas to soak up the water and/or lots of small-scale dams upstream to reduce river-runoff during storm events. For example, the characters that we have introduced and interviewed in our short site visit could behave as follows in this new approach. The hypothetical response of some local residents in Hommelvik to the proposed contingency plan is shown in Figure 34. Figure 34: Personas
“HILDE AND GERD”
They are now active community gatekeepers and attend the flood mitigation community meetings regularly. DMA also benefits from their knowledge resulted from their long-term residence in Hommelvik.
Two elderly ladies in their late seventies, enjoying a drink in Café Rampa, who have been retired for many years and lived in Hommelvik their whole lives.
“PRUDENCE”
She has been a former NTNU student and now she is helping NTNU researchers to conduct interviews as necessary and helps creating the ‘Network Bridge’ between the Kommune and NTNU.
An elderly lady recently retired, out doing her shopping in the local farm shop.
“ANDERS”
“MOKOLAJ”
After getting familiar with natural catchment solutions in community workshops, now in his free time he helps the other volunteers to make leaky dams here and there in the woods – making some new friends at the same time!
He is very busy and might not attend the workshops but he is happy that now he knows more about his town and he has a stronger sense of belonging. As a result of the raised awareness now he stores sandbags in his basement, keeps valuables upstairs, and knows what steps to take if flooding event occurs.
Young working man who lives in the hills around the town.
A recent immigrant to the town who lives directly adjacent to the river..
MUNICIPAL COUNCIL 31 Members
CONTROL COMMITEE 5 Members
MAYOR
PRESIDENCY 7 Members
COMMITTEE FOR HEALTH AND WELFARE
COMMITTEE FOR CHILDHOOLD AND CULTURE
7 Members
7 Members
ADMINISTRATION COMMITEE 5 Members
COMMITTEE FOR LAND AND COMMUNITY PLANNING 7 Members
USER COMMITTEE
SPORTS COUNCIL
ELDERS COMMITTEE
CULTURE COUNCIL
YOUTH COMMITTEE
Figure 35: Malvik municipality political structure
When examining the Malvik municipality we were positively surprised that they already had many councils for different community groups like youth, elders, sports and culture. This made it easier to structure an operational support plan map where the existing councils could be used as a connection from the disaster management authority to the general population. The natural leaders of the community could be trained to be the first responders in a crisis, engage the community and relay information to the general population. The lack of information and expertise in any contingency plan can create more, unnecessary uncertainty. A further, in depth dive into the different community groups at risk could make a more comprehensive understanding of the actions that need to be taken. Especially a deeper understanding of the schools in the susceptible area could help us make tailored measures. Children needs greater guidance in an event that requires evacuation. Tailored evacuation plans for the kids with yearly training exercises, like one would have fire exercises, could be a possibility. We hope that the municipality councils for the different community
groups can provide us with the necessary information. Further local analysis from NVE are also needed to make informative plans and measures. Different scenarios based on impact creates the need for an approach that can map the procedures for responses and implementation and budget plan. Due to time constraint, word count and the difficulty of collaboration caused by Covid-19 we have not implemented such an approach. To further improve this plan in the future, we recommend creating a decision tree analysis based on the different scenarios in collaboration with further studies from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE). A possible different approach can be to create a down selection or matrix mapping in collaboration with both the community and NVE to pinpoint the most pressing measures and the correct actions. The contingency plan should be updated frequently. The climate is ever changing, and an updated plan is the best tool for preventing physical and humanitarian losses in an unpredictable event.
Conclusion Flood risks from rivers can be catastrophic and ruinous for people’s livelihoods, and as the risk of more extreme weather becomes more significant due to climate breakdown these could become even more of a threat. With limited resources, our approach has focussed on building on the existing strengths of the community in Hommelvik and harnessing the benefits of strong social networks to build long-term resilience using the principles of shared learning. These include focussing on solutions that increase preparedness and anticipation of flood risks within the community, using better and more targeted information to build household resilience and protecting the most vulnerable in the community. In the most catastrophic events (such as an ice dam collapse), networks and public buildings will be harnessed to provide places of safety and first aid. During more
regular surface water and fluvial flooding, losses can be minimised by integrating flood protection such as sustainable urban drainage (SuDS) and wet and dry household protection. Examples from around the world have shown how small, targeted solutions at catchment level (such as small leaky dams) can have a dramatic cumulative effect. Through such an approach, flood resilience can be built a scales, from catchment level to household and street level, with loops of learning working to improve effectiveness over time. In an uncertain world with limited resources, such an approach could provide value across the developed and developing world.
Figure 36: Hommelvik from the surrounding hills
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Appendix 1: Survey Feedback Introduction:
Hvis du husker flommen i 2002, hvordan påvirket det deg? 11 responses • • • • •
Husker ikke noe spesielt (4 personer) Jeg bodde ikke så nærme at det påvirket meg (3 personer) Ikke direkte påvirket, men mange jeg kjenner fikk kjellere fulle av vann (1 person) Kjelleren full av vann (2 personer) Høy vannstand, men ingen større fare (1 person)
Flood Risk: Risk management: Hvilken organisasjon tror du ville hatt ansvaret i en flomsituasjon? 30 responses • • • • • • • •
Vet ikke (4 personer) Beredskapsteam i kommune, samt nødetater (7 personer) Brannvesenet (1 person) Politiet (1 person) Forsvaret (1 person) Sivilforsvaret (1 person) Kommunen (12 personer) NVE (3 personer)
The local community: Er du klar over mennesker i bygda som kan være mer utsatt for flom enn andre? 26 responses • • • •
Ja (18 personer) Ja, de som bor nær elva (5 personer) Ja, de som bor i Danielstrøvegen (2 personer) Nei (1 person)