Urban Contingency - 2022 - Semester booklet by Urban Ecological Planning_NTNU

Urban Contingency Practice and Planning Semester booklet, Spring 2022 Urban Ecological Planning (UEP) Master’s Programme Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

AAR5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning Semester Booklet, Spring 2022 Urban Ecological Planning (International Master’s Programme) Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway Course Coordinator: Mrudhula Koshy Assistant professor and Doctoral researcher, NTNU Course Lecturers: Mrudhula Koshy (Uncertainty and Contingency) Assistant professor and Doctoral reseacher, NTNU Peter Gotsch (Scenario Planning) Professor, NTNU Wang Yu (Disaster and Risk Management) Senior Researcher, NTNU Riny Sharma (Academic writing) Assistant Professor, NTNU Guest Lecturers:

David Smith (Resilience) Post-doctoral researcher Université de Montréal’s School of Architecture, Montréal, Canada Shuaib Lwasa (Climate Change Adaptation) Principal Researcher, Global Centre on Adaptation Groningen, The Netherlands David Sanderson (Humanitarian response) Professor, University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia

Booklet Layout and design:

Nick A. Kiahtipes Student Assistant, UEP (2020)

Foreword 2022 has been an intense year. The COVID pandemic continues to persist into the third year, countries and communities from all over the world are experiencing uncertainties due to climate change, protracted displacement and armed conflict, impacting every aspect of our lives in unexpected ways. More than ever, there is a global realization from governance institutions, decision makers and civil society organizations on the necessity and value of effective contingency planning to deal with uncertainties and unprecedented events. The ‘Urban Contingency Practice and Planning’ course (7.5 credits) attempts to understand how theory, practice and policy could be reconfigured to deal with contingencies. The course is held every spring semester in association with the Urban Ecological Planning (UEP) Master’s program at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway. By discussing various concepts such as uncertainty, contingency, resilience and scenario planning at the intersection of spatial planning, disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and humanitarian response, the course equips students to recognize and synthesize uncertainties of various levels and intensities, and to develop contextual and multi-scalar plans and design responses that are flexible and adaptable. The premise of this group assignment was to prepare a contingency plan for a hypothetical crisis of unexpected floods (due to sea level rise or heavy rainfall) in Trondheim. Like many cities around the world, Trondheim faces a range of risks and threats. In such cases, rather than viewing uncertainty as a catastrophe, envisioning different scenarios can be seen as a catalyst so that institutions, organizations, and communities can enable visions for radical and transformative change. To stimulate transdisciplinary research, the general objectives of this group work were to:

1. Explore the range of perceived and documented risks, threats, and uncertainties in Trondheim. 2. Analyze the various stakeholders,institutions, and organizations in Trondheim, which are dealing with (perceived) disruptions and the ways they could prepare, respond, adapt, and transform. 3. Understand that the range of scenarios and different constraints can lead to different outcomes in plans and strategies. While it might be tempting to adopt generic practices since it is a hypothetical scenario, students were reminded that the existing morphology, spatial structure, and geographical location of the selected area in Trondheim could have a substantial influence on their proposed plan. 4. Document best practices and cases from other disaster-prone and vulnerable areas that are appropriate for the given scenario. 5. Propose a contingency plan based on the hypothetical scenario and, through it, outline a response strategy, implementation plan, operational support plan, preparedness plan and budget. This can also include sets of flexible tools, strategies and frameworks that can deal with unexpected and unprecedented uncertainties and enhance planning for contingencies based on this exploration. Each team was given one hypothetical scenario with a different set of resource, institutional, spatial and climate change constraints. Within the given constraints, students prepared a contingency plan which comprises a set of frameworks, tools and strategies that are flexible and adaptable. The group work was substantiated with peer-to-peer learning and feedback. We hope you enjoy reading this compiled booklet of the students’ hard work as much as we enjoyed teaching the course! Kind regards, Mrudhula Koshy, Wang Yu, Riny Sharma and Peter Gotsch.

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Contingency plan for Bakklandet A safe gateway Group 2 Asad Delsouzkhaki Angela Subedi Alberto Vertiz Ingvild Mathisen Sofie Johannessen Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Introduction

Two global phenomena are making their mark on the world today; climate change and increasing urbanization. This can be a challenging cocktail that can cause major flooding, destruction and, in worst case, cost human lives (NGI, 2017). Worldwide, floods affect about 250 million people annually, and cause financial losses in the order of 200 billion Norwegian kroner (OECD, 2016)

shows the height profile of the site. The site is known for its characteristics of old buildings, especially along the streets of Nedre Bakklandet and Nygata, together with Kjøpmannsgata on the other side (outside our site) and the river Nidelva creates an important cultural area, which Trondheim is known for (Visit Trondheim, 2021).

“Climate change is causing more frequent and more intense extreme events such as hurricanes, storm surges and torrential rains. At the same time, more and larger areas are being urbanized, with large population concentrations and more advanced infrastructure. Together, this threatens life and safety, and can lead to greater and greater financial losses for society” - Carl B. Harbitz, head of department for Risk, Avalanche Geotechnics and Climate Adaption at NGI (NGI, 2017) Society in general is vulnerable to extreme rainfall and floods, as we have seen in Oslo in 2019 and Germany/Belgium in the summer of 2021. In the course Urban Contingency Planning and Practice (AAR5220) at NTNU we will look at the challenges surrounding urban flooding and produce a contingency plan for a hypothetical scenario at a specific location in Trondheim city, Norway. The contingency plan will include short-term and long-term measures to reduce the risk and consequences of flooding due to heavy rainfall and will operate as a guide on how the local community should act before, during and after a flood event.

Symbology: Site area Nidelva river Green / Forrest area

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Figure 1: The chosen site (Source: Norgeskart/group 2).

Background

Residential area Forest Open area

Given scenario

The hypothetical scenario for this assignment explores the fact that Trondheim is a very low-density city and is prone to unexpected floods due to heavy rainfall. Although the municipality has limited financial resources, there is a well set-up disaster management authority (DMA). There could be a potential water level rise of Nidelva River due to heavy rainfall, however, this assignment does not focus on that scenario. Hence, the scenario focuses on the impacts due to heavy rainfall like inundations, landslides in quick clay areas, heritage damage, loss of homes and workplaces, and risk of loss of lives.

Figure 2: Height profile showing the slope from Nedre Bakklandet up towards Kristiansten Fortress, a quite steep slope from 0 m.a.s.l. to approximately 70 m.a.s..l. within 400 meters (Source: Norgeskart/kartverket).

Location

The location of the site was decided based on our given scenario where uncertain flooding due to heavy rainfall could impact both population and important cultural heritage. We therefore chose the area called Bakklandet which is located near the city centre. In addition, we made the decision to extend the site up towards Kristiansten fortress, where there also are many old residential buildings as shown in figure 5. In addition, the site has a slope which could make the flood even more hazardous with strong water flowing down, potentially destroying buildings or creating landslides. Figure 2 Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Methodology

Given the constraint of limited financial budget, the main question that arose was how to integrate a proper flood management without any money. The asset turned out to be disaster management authority that can help mobilize the community as well as administrative departments to come up with a holistic approach to flood management. The initial research for this report started with understanding the given scenario. The main tool was secondary research that paved our way to select a site matching the given scenario. After

selecting the site at Bakklandet, the next phase was to understand the context with site visits and direct observations. On multiple site visits, we made observations and took pictures of the vulnerabilities at site, the community’s own adaptive capacity and the blue-green infrastructure that exists at the site. After the observations, we proceeded to make a list of stakeholders involved in the case. With stakeholder mapping, we could better understand the relationships of stakeholders, their involvement with the issues at hand and their contribution before, during and after the hazard. We sent out a few questionnaires to relevant stakeholders in the community to know their opinion on this case. We were able to contact Bakklandet Community (Bakklandet Velforening) who gave us valuable input regarding their approach to flood management at site. Researching best practices from around the world who also had a very low budget for flood adaptation, we derived certain strategies that could be implemented on the site for proper flood management. Brainstorming the ideas and interventions, we proceeded to sketch them out, firstly on paper and then on digital graphics tools like photoshop.

Figure 3: Site visit to Bakklandet (Source: Group 2).

Secondary research

Interviews/Questionnaire

Site visits

Brainstorming

Observations, taking pictures

Sketching

Stakeholder mapping

Mapping

Figure 4: Methology timeline (Source: Authorship of group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Theory

Disasters can happen at any given time, especially when it comes to natural disasters as we cannot predict the earth’s natural biological and geological changes. Hazards are harmful events that can happen at any given time while vulnerability is the inability to protect oneself against the adverse impacts of those hazards and recover quickly from the effects (Garatwa and Bollin, 2002). Vulnerability is linked with uncertainty as we as humans can’t predict when heavy rainfall is going to happen, and we are left with uncertainty of how it’s going to impact and develop over time. Therefore, communities are sometimes left stranded after floods and landslides as they do not have the resources to build houses and governmental financial resources are insufficient for disaster risk management (Garatwa and Bollin, 2002). Sometimes the required resources can’t get to the affected zones quickly or the amount provided by governments is lacking. According to the #NoNaturalDisasters campaign many people argue that the term ‘natural disaster’ is incorrect or misleading as whilst some hazards are natural and unavoidable, the resulting disasters almost always have been made by human actions and decisions. This is because we are the ones who build structures and reform the natural landscape to live, creating a further risk for ourselves when a natural earth phenomenon occurs. For this theoretical investigation we assume that Bakklandet experiences heavy rainfall and possible landslides because of its urban context of one of the highest points of the city. Therefore, Bakklandet always lies at risk. A risk is defined as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from interactions between natural or human induced hazards and vulnerable conditions (UNISDR, 2009). It is important that we consider people as the main element at risk. Other possible elements could be physical assets such as built-up areas, transport lines or similar types of infrastructure, as these can also be at risk of collapse in the event of a flood caused by rainfall, further creating chaos withing the city (Schneiderbauer and Ehrlich, 2004).

along the river and increased the activity at Bakklandet even more. Eventually Bakklandet became a thriving trading place where businesses and houses established unregulated and located wherever there was space. In 1960s Bakklandet was threatened to be demolished due to plans on creating a new highway to the city centre, but it started a big protest to preserve Bakklandet and the plans never came through. The buildings were then rehabilitated, and now the area has become an idyllic place with many visitors from around the world and today, the wooden stilt buildings at Bakklandet are said to be one of Europe’s most important heritages (Bakklandet info, no date). The area is protected by the cultural heritage consideration zone and therefore needs approval by the municipality and the cultural heritage authority when changes are being made. This means that the cultural landscape should be preserved, and new establishments like housing or physical structures must follow the existing environment (Trondheim kommune, 2021a). Kristiansten fortress Kristiansten Fortress was built after Trondheim’s great city fire in 1681 with the intention to prevent enemies from being able to shoot down the city. It is Norway’s best-preserved tower fortress from the 17th century, with the distinctive donjon visible from all over the city making it distinctive landmark in Trondheim (Forsvarsbygg, no date). The fortress, with its relatively large and park-like terrain, forms an important part of the cities’ recreational areas and is a very important cultural monument which are protected by the National Heritage Board since 2014 (Hammer, 2022). Figure 5 shows the antiquarian value of the buildings located in the site. The value is divided into three classes that is made by the Norwegian Directorate for Cultural Heritage. The different classes show the degree to which the buildings need to be preserved and changes should follow the characteristics of the area. As the figure shows, there are many buildings in the entire site that has antiquarian value, and the fortress is classified as protected (Trondheim kommune, 2021a). C: Antiquarian value B: High antiquarian value

For our case, the involvement of the community is an asset in absence of substantial financial resources. Therefore, community involvement and building resilience will be emphasized to cope with the risks of the floods. According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, resilience is defined as the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management (UNISDR, 2009). Disasters provide dramatic situations in which affected local communities reveal extraordinary capacities to re-imagine and re-design their structures and processes to survive (Imperiale and Vanclay, 2016).

A: Very high antiquarian value Protected

Site analysis

The chosen site starts from Nedre Bakklandet and continues up to Kristiansten fortress as shown in the figure 1.

Cultural monuments and history

Bakklandet was first established in the early 1600s where the need to build outside of the city centre emerged due to increasing population, which made Bakklandet Trondheim’s first suburb. Initially, there were scattered buildings in this area, but when the City bridge (Bybroen) was established, more traffic and possibilities to build houses emerged. After several fires, docks were placed Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Figure 5: Antiquarian value of buildings on the site (Source: Trondheim kommune, 2021a/Group 2).

Climate change in Trondheim and Trøndelag region In Trøndelag, episodes of heavy rainfall are expected to increase significantly in both frequency and intensity as climate change continues. The amount of precipitation for days with heavy rainfall is expected to increase by approximately 20 percent, and even higher for durations shorter than one day, leading to problems with surface water and changes in flood conditions and size. In addition, this also increases the risk for landslides from soil erosion, slush flows and the risk for quick clay landslides. The average annual temperature is estimated to increase by approximately 4.0 ° C where winter and autumn has the highest increase with 4.5° C. In winter and autumn especially, increased water flow is therefore expected because precipitation increases and more will come as rain instead of snow. In densely populated areas with a lot of hard surfaces, this will create problems and Trondheim municipality needs to adjust to these expected changes to face the potential hazards (Norwegian Climate Service Center, 2021). Figure 6 shows the flood line projection for 20 years due to heavy rainfall and the impacted areas.

Flooding in the area

In Norway, most municipalities manage surface water by a method called the three-step strategy, to prevent surface water and limit large quantity of water entering the pipes. The first step is infiltration, which deals with smaller amounts of rain by letting it infiltrate the groundwater. The second step is delaying the medium rain, for example in depressions and cavities in the terrain or in surface water measures in developed areas. The third step is safe flood paths for heavy rain, where rain is led safely to the recipient via natural or planned flood routes. When large amounts of surface water can’t follow natural or planned flood routes, but instead runs through buildings, into garages and basements etc., it damages the infrastructure and buildings and in worst case also endangers the life and health of humans (NVE, 2021). Pipes below ground are important to deal with access rainwater, but in Midtbyen (including the site area) the pipes were built a long time ago when it was less precipitation, in addition to larger green areas. Today, with a lot of hard surfaces and increased rainwater, the pipes have become too small to deal with all the access water. In addition, they were built to store surface water

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Figure 7: Depressions in the terrain where water can accumulate (Source: Trondheim kommune).

Flood zone - 20 year flood River and water Exposed to flooding

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Figure 6: Flood line projection for 20 years (Source: NVE, 2017).

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

and sewage in the same pipe in a so-called common system. When the pipe gets full, the solution is to throw diluted sewage into the nearest river, stream, or pipe, and this is one of the biggest concerns with surface water since it leads to pollution problems. For our case, this leads to pollution in Nidelva, which is an important habitat for salmon (Standal & Brodshaug, 2021). Capacity problems in the pipe system should therefore be prevented by the three-step method by using other methods for dealing with surface water and leading the water in a safe, natural way to the river. Figure 7 shows depressions in the terrain where the water can accumulate after major precipitation or snowmelt events. This can occur if established drainage (drains, drainage pipes, stream closures) or natural drainage (infiltration) for some reason do not work or if there is not established sufficient safe flood paths (Trondheim kommune, 2021b). 0

Geology Quick clay The site has a varied topography but continues in a slope towards the river. At Festningen, it consists of a park-like terrain with vegetation that can infiltrate some of the rain, as well as some greenery towards the river. The rest of the site mostly consists of hard surfaces with no infiltration capacity, but some manual interventions for leading the rain can be established. In addition, as shown in figure 8, the green area around Festningen is classified to have assumed small amount of infiltration potential, meaning that it does not have the capacity to deal with the increased amount of heavy rainfall that is expected. The site also consists of areas with quick clay. Quick clay is the term for a special type of clay that can collapse and become thin when overloaded and is usually found below the marine boundary. During the last ice age, clay particles carrying salt were carried and deposited in what was once a beach zone in Bakklandet. With the salt the clay got an internal lattice structure and become stable. However, when the salt eventually gets washed out by freshwater, the particles lose its stability and collapses (NGI, no date). Quick clay is therefore an important consideration for our study area and will have to be considered when designing the contingency plan as some of the areas are classified to have a very high landslide hazard (see figure 9).

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Figure 8: Infiltration potential of the site (Source: NGU / Group 2 ).

The combination of little infiltration at Festningen, potentially leading to flood, erosion, and landslides from above, with the hazard of quick clay landslides from freshwater outwash, will therefore need to be considered in the making of the solution for the contingency plan.

Figure 9: Areas of quick clay where the red colour states a high risk of quick clay loosening (Source: NVE / Group 2 )

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Stakeholders

Freeman (1984) defines a stakeholder as “any group or individual who can affect or is affected by the achievement of the organization’s objectives”. In the scenario of flooding due to heavy rainfall in a defined site area, stakeholders can be users, neighbors, landowners, business owners, utility providers, general public, surrounding institutions and administrative local organizations who are directly or indirectly affected by the hazard. While identifying the stakeholders is necessary to understand who is involved in the issues, who is impacted by it and who impacts, a stakeholder mapping can help improve our understanding of the situation with a visual representation of who can help with the efforts. So, we identified the organizations, governmental and non-governmental institutions, communities, and individual stakeholders that can help in solving the issues for contingency planning and further analyzed them graphically.

Stakeholder mapping

The development of a stakeholder-issue interrelationship map was necessary to show how the different governmental and non-governmental institutions are intertwined together to address our issues. Additionally, we grouped some stakeholders as they are related to one another and could potentially work together to support, improve, strengthen, or manage the different issues that need to be addressed on the contingency plan. One of the key issues that our scenario has is the limited financial resources that are available to tackle the heavy rainfall and flooding in the area. This is the reason we believe that various stakeholders can work in conjunction to gather necessary resources. The stakeholders such as The Cultural Unit, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Finance and Economics Department and the businesses that are stationed at Bakklandet, and Disaster Management Authority (DMA) collaborating with these stakeholders to create a substantial fund that can be used for integrated flood management. The Unit for Safety and Emergency Preparedness along with the Police and Fire Department will be needed to raise awareness and tackle the incident of flooding when it happens. These officials will be in the front line along with the community leaders who will prepare, organize, and evacuate the affected groups.

Figure 10: Stakeholder-issue interrelationship diagram (Source: Group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Best practices: Case studies 1. Case Study: Tabasco, Mexico The region of Tabasco in Southern Mexico experiences a lot of heavy rainfall which causes big floods in some low-density rural communities which often affect their crops and homes. Since 2013, the Mexican Red Cross in association with Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance have implemented community resilience programs to educate the community people how to prepare for flooding events. The Red Cross builds local capacity and works on enhancing the effectiveness of existing, and develops new, innovative, and scalable flood mitigation technologies (Flood Resilience Portal Zurich, 2022). Additionally, community brigades are made up of members of the community for them to act and co-ordinate on what to do when heavy rainfall affects their area. These brigades help coordinate how to move livestock away from the affected areas, as well as build natural barricades alongside rivers or lakes, while making their crop areas into catchment zones. Therefore, the community members have realized the value of community brigades in an emergency, showing significant interest in joining the brigades. So, Zurich Flood Resilience Aliance and the Red Cross have expanded their programs to other communities in the region of Tabasco and the South of Mexico.

Figure 11: Flooding in Tabasco (Source: Flood Resilience Portal Zurich)

2. Case Study: Bergen, Norway Vestland county experiences large amounts of precipitation annually with associated flood events, where Bergen municipality is widely known for its frequent rainfall. In the period 2017-2021, the Hordaflom report was prepared in collaboration between Norce Klima, the University of Bergen, NVE and Bergen Municipality as a contribution to strengthen flood prevention and management in the future (Paasche et.al, 2021). A costly flood in October 2014 helped to focus on climate danger in Western Norway precisely because it made them realize what large amount of precipitation over a few days can result in. Although life threats were avoided, there was extensive material damage to more than 1,000 properties, and damage to roads and other types of infrastructure (NVE, 2015). The report and the research work for the preparation of it has made it possible to predict where and when a flood event will occur and thus be able to carry out measures to mitigate the extent of the damage. The measures include both short-term and long-term perspectives. Where short-term can involve draining water reservoirs ahead of a heavy rainfall or snow melting period to increase the capacity to handle large amounts of precipitation, or smaller measures such as moving grazing animals and valuables to safer Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

grounds. Long-term measures include strict rules for development, where it is required for all new construction cases that a risk and vulnerability analysis is performed and building and construction in flood-prone areas is strictly prohibited. It is also considered to move important emergency routes and services to areas that are not exposed to floods in the future.

Figure 12: Flooding in Bergen (Source: Bergensavisen)

3. Case Study: Quang Bhin, Vietnam The central region of Vietnam where the Quang Bhin province is located experiences an extremely hard and devastating typhoon season each year which affects roughly 7.5 million people who are amongst the poorest in Vietnam (ADRC). Exposure to disasters creates vulnerable communities and therefore is one of the main reasons for poverty in the area. Heavy rainfall is caused when typhoon storms hit the mountainous regions of the country, and these create flooding canals towards the different provinces. The government every year mobilizes its army forces to different provinces to alert the communities and help them evacuate the affected areas (ADRC). Farmers living on the valleys and sides of mountains remove their crops to create flood plains and with the help of the army they create ditches and higher grounds around their homes to prevent flooding. Army vehicles with the help of the Red Cross bring food aid and household kits are distributed to the affected people. The army helps build barricades and set up emergency routes to evacuate residents to higher and safer places where they will have access to services while the situation is dealt with. The Vietnamese Red Cross Society as well as the disaster management authority provide budget resources for the people affected, this money is normally collected through funding campaigns.

Figure 13: Typhoon in Quang Bhin (Source: ADRC)

Findings from best practices Table 1: Findings from best practices (Source: Group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Contingency plan

Response strategy

The objective of contingency planning is preparing for uncertain events to minimize the impacts and resume the normal life after the crisis. UNHCR and UN Disaster Management Training Programme define contingency planning as: “A forward planning process, in a state of uncertainty, in which scenarios and objectives are agreed, managerial and technical actions defined, and potential response systems put in place in order to prevent, or better respond to, an emergency or critical situation.” The given hypothetical scenario and the contextual analysis of the chosen site at Bakklandet lay the foundations for the scenario based contingency plans below. The possible impacts are that the buildings could be destroyed, people could be in danger and drainage system could collapse. As illustrated in Fig. 14, Choularton (2007) states that contingency planning is an ongoing process with lessons learnt after each disaster so that the plans can be improved to face the next disaster. The contingency plan below builds on both shortterm and long-term measures and is derived through community-based approaches since we lack necessary financial resources.

Emergency Intensified contingency planning Assessment

ONGOING CONTINGENCY PLANNING

Early warning

Emergency response planning

Lessons learned

Durable solutions (long-term response)

Emergency response implementation

Figure 14: The contingency planning continuum (Source: Care international / Group 2)

Figure 15: Timeline of respons strategy (Source: Group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

The response strategy explores what measures would be needed to alleviate the situation of flooding, developing appropriate humanitarian responses of emergency management before, during and after the hazard. The aim is to maintain and improve preventive measures for people and to bring all people to safety without any loss of lives during the flooding caused by heavy rainfall. The measures that can be implemented before the threat of hazard is identifying evacuation routes and safe places away from the quick clay areas.

Short-term (immediate) measures It is important to acknowledge the value of time for quicker response. Local responsibility and ownership are important to enable the community members to respond better. Before the hazard, rainfall forecasting, and early warnings should be provided to alert the first respondents of the community. The community can place private low-cost barriers like sandbags around their property to prevent any losses. The response during the hazard starts with identification of all floods affected areas for humanitarian response and navigating through safe evacuation routes. Once the people are on safer ground, the next step would be to provide temporary shelters and essential support for the affected population. These measures can be implemented with the help of Disaster Management Authority (DMA). After the risks are reduced, the site should be cleaned up. More help should be searched and resources can be shared to help each other. The damaged structures should be rehabilitated. After everything is out of danger, evaluation reports must be prepared to assess the impacts of the hazard. Long-term measures With the immediate response in effect, long-term measures can be implemented with the objective of hazard prevention. Choularton (2007) states that “early warning is a catalyst for contingency planning processes. Early warning prompts conting-ency plans to be developed, updated and implemented.” Thus, organizational changes like improved rainfall forecast and early flood warning systems can enable quicker response. Similarly, identification of vulnerable groups and increasing awareness and training of the communities can help prepare the people for possible hazard. As learnt from the case of Tabasco, ’community brigades’ can be formed and trained well to

Figure 16: Illustration of a responsive community (Source: Group 2)

help the community by exchanging experience and information before any hazard occurs. Other measures that can help for quick response in long-term are allocating basic resources for emergency response like food, water, clothing and shelter (as refuge camps); evidently residents at Bakklandet are already preparing for such events (see text boxes in figure 17).

Implementation plan

The implementation plan explores how the actions can be taken, that include emergency needs assessment, targeting, partnerships, monitoring and evaluation, reporting, logistics and security (Choularton, 2007). The first step would be to set up a Local Flood Management Committee (LFMC) with the help of the Disaster Management Authority (DMA). LFMC with collaborative efforts with local government can effectively implement the plans at micro level. Other measures that don’t require large investments that the community can implement on their own property are having green structures and water basins based on three step method described earlier in this report that is implemented in Norway. The three steps include 1) infiltration of water, 2) delaying medium rain by making depressions and cavities, and 3) safe paths for heavy rain through natural or planned flood routes. As observed at the site, the community already has soft interventions implemented in the community (pictured in figure 18-21). The implementation plan is prepared with the idea that although the scenario limits the financial resources available at present, at some point in the future, there will be substantial resources in the long-term to implement proper integrated flood management. While the short-term implementation plan will be capacity based, the long-term plan will be needs based planning catering for overall anticipated humanitarian needs.

Figure 17: Text boxes of interviews with residents and Bakklandet Community / velforening (Source: Group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Figure 18: Gravel roads to allow water to percolate (Source: Group 2)

Figure 20: Green structure (Source: Group 2)

Figure 19: Green structure (Source: Group 2)

Figure 21: Drainage ditch established by a resident (Source: Group 2)

Warning

Hazard occurs

Response

1 Emergency needs assessment Contingency plan based on hypothetical scenario

2 Implementation based on targeting Better prepared for future

Framework for action

3 Partnership for operational support plan

Implementation of plans based on budget Update guidelines new preparedness and budget allocation Budget allocation and finding more resources Implementation and monitoring

Low risk High risk

6 Preparedness of logistic and security for future event

5 Reporting

Revise and update contingency plan

Figure 22: Framework for action (Source: Group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Repeat if the impacts persist

Alternative response

4 Monitoring and evalution

The ‘Framework for Action’ in figure 22 illustrates the overall implementation plan that includes the overarching vision of mitigating flood risks.

1: Emergency needs assessment This starts with the assessment of humanitarian needs through reviewing existing data and collecting new data to support decision making, identifying vulnerable groups through needs assessment. The DMA will conduct the assessments with the help of LFMC. The result of emergency needs assessment will be reassessed to refine the contingency plan prior to implementation.

4: Monitoring and evaluation The monitoring and evaluation indicators that will be used are a) Determining the scope of assessment, b) Identifying what needs to be assessed, c) Specifying reporting requirements, d) Determining relevant indicators, and e) Developing measures for indicators. The monitoring phase will derive strategies to discourage people from building in vulnerable areas. The people will be encouraged to build houses higher than surrounding green catchment areas. The stakeholders list will be continuously revised so that more people are incorporated in the plan.

5: Reporting Preparing evaluation reports will be done by DMA in collaboration with LFMC. The reports will be prepared every five years with updated plans. In addition, documenting new stakeholders and creating a strong network by the DMA will be implemented.

2: Targeting The targeting will be based on administrative capacities and socio-economic condition of the community members. While the LFMC will implement the plans at local level based on socio-economic conditions of the residents, Trondheim Kommune with its relevant departments will carry out the plans in a larger scale based on administrative capacities. This process will also target to improve the socio-economic condition and awareness of the community. Targeting the vulnerable communities, training programs will be conducted and ‘community brigade programs’ will be created and expanded to share the knowledge and perform periodic drills.

6: Logistics and security The logistical support that will be required are storage of essential goods, transportation of people and services, and preparation of refuge area. Other logistics include distribution of food and other essential items, rehabilitation of infrastructure and shelter, and taking care of health and sanitation. The security measures support the ability to implement the plans. Monitoring early warning systems enables that. The backup plan to be considered is that if the first respondents and humanitarian response must be evacuated then there is need to seek help from other municipalities and NGOs. Insurance of life and property can ensure security to the residents and businesses.

3: Partnership The different stakeholders support in alleviating each issue that are graphically presented in the stakeholder mapping fig. 10. The operational support plan can be understood in fig 27, that allows for partnership of different stakeholders. While the role of national and regional governments would be to provide support to Trondheim Kommune, the Kommune disseminates the received support to relevant departments at local level. The community members can share space for meetings and working together and identify safe place for themselves. With the partnership of the community groups, the first respondents can be trained and prepared timely. The DMA will help in building a network of stakeholders. Community saving programs will be implemented in partnership with different land owners and businesses.

Long-term measures that span 20 years (after gaining substantial financial resources) Timely renovations and maintenance of heritage structures can be implemented in the national plans via the cultural unit. The dangerous buildings can be removed or repaired. Bluegreen interventions like rain catchment channels for proper drainage of water accumulated can be implemented on areas where the water accumulates on site as shown in fig 24. The example of such rain catchment is illustrated in fig 28. Additionally, placing permanent barriers at the areas that are prone to landslide due to heavy rainfall can reduce the damage. In terms of policies, the planning policies can be revised, and erosion protection systems can be built on the site to prevent landslide due to quick clay. The municipality can provide better water and sewage systems to mitigate rainfall related hazards. shelter, and taking care of health and sanitation.

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Symbology Erosion protection

100m

Other measures Figure 23: Existing erosion protection and bottom protection systems built at site (Source: NVE).

Symbology Site area

Affected area by landslide

Nidelva river

Barriers

Water of Flood

Accumulation of Water

Water flow of Flood Figure 24: Possible solution to drain the water of the site (Sourc: Norgeskart / Group 2).

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

100m

Figure 25: Bakklandet area before the hazard (Source: Group 2)

Figure 26: Bakklandet area after the hazard (Source: Group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Responsibilities and actions Table 2: Responsibilities and actions (Source: Group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Operational support plan National govenment and its ministries Regional government

Seek

NVE Trøndelag County Municipality

Mapping Research

Trondheim Kommune

Forecast

Finance Economic Department

Local level

Trondheim Cultural Unit Disaster Magement Authority Police

Fire department

Trondheim Property Department

Meteorologial institute

Financial support

Urban Development Department Humanitarian response

Local Flood Management Committee Health and Welfare Department

Businesses Community leaders

International support

Emergency support

Land owners Community and citizens

NGOs

Organize Inform

Volunteer groups

Refugee area

Figure 27: Operational support plan (Source: Group 2)

This part explores what material, supplies and staff would be needed for the contingency planning. The operational support plan ensures that there is sufficient administrative and financial support. It shows how the different stakeholders can support with various human resources, information and telecommunications and other support. This is important as here humanitarian action needs to be provided to the ones affected but also financial aid needs to be distributed to reduce the damage caused by the hazard. The main stakeholder is the Trondheim Kommune with its different departments. The national and regional level will help with seeking international support and NVE will provide technical advice through mapping and research. The meteorological institute will help with accurate weather forecast. The different departments of the Kommune will help with financial support and emergency support to the community. DMA and LFMC will seek humanitarian assistance from NGOs and organize and inform the community. The cluster of citizens, community and community leaders in the stakeholder mapping are one of the main groups as these people will have to be trained or informed on what to do when disaster strikes. Furthermore, assistance for children, women and elderly people will have to be implemented. Community leaders will need to inform people about the potential evacuation routes towards high ground where Kristiansten Festning can serve as a meeting point and across the bridge towards the green areas near Nidarosdomen Cathedral. Furthermore, the health and welfare department will be crucial in this situation to assist everyone to safety and have rescue brigades help the elderly and people with disabilities move to meeting points.

Preparedness plans

This part explores what preparation is necessary. The hypothetical scenario allows the stakeholders enough time to prepare for possible hazards. As mentioned earlier in the ‘Framework for action’, the people should be trained, and logistics must be planned well before the hazard. The community can prepare by pre-positioning food and non-food items. Significant resources must be committed by the Kommune to support preparedness efforts of the community. Kommune must upgrade logistical management system, improving supply route and improving regional coordination. Enhancing

Figure 28: Rain catchment channels that can be implemented in long-term (Source: Group 2)

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Figure 29: Illustration of community working on filling sandbags (Source: Group 2)

community awareness will be important so that the inhabitants know how to react and where to go in an emergency. It is necessary that there is efficient communication from the meteorological institute and from NVE to the Kommune about the flood hazard so that there is enough time to evacuate with important belongings from the site. This could be done by supplying the inhabitants of the community with an app that will alert them before flooding. Effective communication and coordination between the different departments such as the police and fire department will also be of high importance.

Budget

This part explores how much will the contingency planning and implementation cost. The financial resources available for this scenario is very low, therefore many of the ideas and interventions presented above are simple but effective. Most of the financing will come through funds gathered by the different stakeholders who are involved in the project. They will set up fundraisers and raise awareness among the community and people who live around the area. Considering that there are a lot of historical and cultural buildings in Bakklandet, there are possibilities to secure financial aid from the Heritage subdivision of the Trondheim Kommune. This would be important also in the long term as these heritage buildings could be reinforced or better protected against risks in the future and the businesses set up here will help in renovation as their interests lie in this area due to high tourist flow in Bakklandet. Many of the community resilience programs as well as awareness schemes and marketing will be carried out by subdivided groups of stakeholders therefore the costs for these are minimal. The following table depicts a rough idea of how the budget will be implemented across the different measures of the project.

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

Discussion

From the given scenario with flooding due to heavy rainfall and limited financial resources, we developed a community-based approach based on knowledge gained from best practices around the world. This approach includes developing a community response strategy as well as engagement of DMA and LFMA and other important stakeholders to mobilize the community and to create a holistic approach to the flood management. The various stakeholders help to gather the necessary resources to create more long-term solutions, like erosion banks along the river to integrate a more proper flood management. The Bakklandet community and its citizens are of importance for increasing the resilience and reducing the vulnerability when an event occurs, where various efforts include increasing preparedness and awareness by training, co-ordinate for flood events, and making simple adjustments on the private land to reduce risks. In addition, the importance of ensuring the safety of the most vulnerable in the community is assessed. The various efforts include actions both before, during and after an event, involving both the community and stakeholders to take measures. If an extreme event occurs, evacuation networks to Festningen in addition to other green areas near Nidarosdomen will be assessed for safety and health care. For dealing with lesser surface water flooding and prevention, the citizens themselves can take simple measures to prevent losses and to lead the water away in a safe way, while the more expensive interventions like making flood paths outside quick clay areas are made after gathering and allocating substantial resources. By developing early warning systems and improved rainfall forecast this can enable quicker response. Best practices shows that small interventions together with warning systems, training, coordination together with preventive measures can have a significant effect in dealing with floods. Using this approach for the short-term, while also including the resources in the long-term, we involve both the top organizations as well as the locals that together builds flood resilience.

Table 3: Measure, response and budget (Source: Group 2)

MEASURE

RESPONSE

BUDGET

PRE HEAVY RAINFALL

Mapping of flood zones and inform residents of the risk zones so they are prepared

The Norwegian Water Resource and Energy Directorate (NVE)

Construct soft-interventions

Citizens, Community, Community leaders, Businesses, Landowners

Protection of heritage buildings

Cultural and Sports Department & The Cultural Unit & Urban Development Department & Trondheim Property Department

Make changes to legal plan

Trondheim Kommune

Warnings

Trondheim Kommune

Ensure evacuation routes and help vulnerable people

Unit for safety and emergency preparations & Disaster Management Authority (DMA)

Rescue citizens

Fire and Police departments

Provide healthcare

Health and Welfare Department

Provide shelter and food for communities and citizens affected

Unit for safety and emergency preparations & Disaster Management Authority (DMA)

++ ++

DURING HEAVY RAINFALL

+ + ++ ++

POST HEAVY RAINFALL Clearance of the affected area

Trondheim Kommune & The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)

Provide relief goods and services

Businesses & Health and Welfare Department

Provide temporary housing to those affected

Trondheim Kommune & Urban Development Department & Trondheim Property Department

Rebuilding houses

Urban Development Department & Trondheim Property Department

Checking and rebuilding heritage housing

Cultural and Sports Department & The Cultural Unit

Construction of long term solutions

Finance and Economics Department

+ ++ ++ +++ +++ +++

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

By training and creating awareness to the citizens and engaging community response, the locals become involved from the start giving them knowledge about the location and what to do in face of hazardous events, this also helps to give them a sense of local responsibility as well as ownership to the location, which are important for creating a better community response. In addition, the help from the various stakeholders regarding response strategies and implementation, proper integrated flood management is implemented catering for overall anticipated humanitarian needs. Together, these factors deal with the uncertainties of flooding which could happen in the future and builds long-term resilience.

Conclusion

With the given scenario, this report investigates and tries to find answers to how to prepare for and reduce future flood disasters created by heavy rainfall when having a disaster management authority, in a low-density area, with limited financial resources. By choosing the area of Bakklandet we incorporated both low population density in the city, while also including the important cultural heritage buildings. The site analysis, literature review and best practices from several places made way for creating an exhaustive Contingency Plan based on the hypothetical scenario at Bakklandet. From the investigation on the site with inspiration from best practices, the Contingency Plan gives thorough interventions both including short-term and long-term measures, and contains a response strategy, implementation plan, operational support plan, and a preparedness plan engaging both local community as well as relevant stakeholders. The different strategies and frameworks developed are suggestions that are meant to deal with the anticipation of increased heavy rainfall that potentially could lead to floods while also addressing other related hazards. By having limited resources, the initial focus is on creating a ‘community brigade’ and response, but as a long-term solution, more substantial funding is expected, and more expensive implementation tasks can be implemented. In a combination, the two focus areas can together create a long-term resilience and reduce the vulnerability/ risk of the residents/area.

Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

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NVE (no date) NVE Map catalogue. Available at: https://kartkatalog. nve.no/#kart. OECD (2016) Coping with the financial consequences of devastating floods. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/finance/insurance/ coping-with-the-financial-consequences-of-devastatingfloods.htm (Accessed: 19th April 2022). Paasche, Ø. et al. (2021) Hordaflom rapporten – Klima og flom. Available at: https://hordaflom.norceresearch.no/ (Accessed: 19th April 2022). Schneiderbauer, S. and Ehrlich, D. (2004) Risk, hazard and people’s vulnerability to natural hazards, A review of definitions, concepts and data. European Commission Joint Research Centre. EUR, 21410, pp. 40. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/268149143_Risk_Hazard_and_People%27s_ Vulnerability_to_Natural_Hazards_a_Review_of_ Definitions_Concepts_and_Data. Standal, O. and Brodshaug, B. (2021) Mange bekker små. Under Dusken. Available at: https://underdusken.no/mange-bekkersma/170539. TrondheimKommune (2021a) Aktsomhetskart kulturminner. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/byantikvaren/ kartinfo/. TrondheimKommune (2021b) Aktsomhetskart flomfare. Available at: https://www.trondheim.kommune.no/tema/veg-vann-ogavlop/vann-og-avlop/aktsomhetskart-flomfare/. Ulrich, J. et al. (2021) Community Brigades were put to the test during floods in Tabasco, Mexico. Available at: https://www. preventionweb.net/news/community-brigades-were-puttest-during-floods-tabasco-mexico. UNISDR (2009) Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Available at: https://www.unisdr.org/files/7817_ UNISDRTerminologyEnglish.pdf. VisitTrondheim (2021) Koselige Bakklandet. Available at: https:// visittrondheim.no/aktiviteter-attraksjoner/bydeler/ bakklandet/ (Accessed: 24th May 2022).

NorwegianClimateServiceCenter (2022) Klimaprofil Sør-Trøndelag. Available at: https://klimaservicesenter.no/kss/ klimaprofiler/sor-trondelag (Accessed: 19th May 2022).

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NVE (2021) Overvann i arealplanlegging. Available at: https://www. nve.no/arealplanlegging/overvann-i-arealplanlegging/ (Accessed: 19th May 2022). Contingency plan Bakklandet | A safe gateway

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Ila Vision Zero

A toolkit with strategies to reduce hazard related impacts GROUP 4 Bhuvana Nanaiah Erik Lungård Ekeren Huan Chang Mariana Costa Silva Nils Hornet Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

Introduction Climate change in combination with global warming is said to increase the predictability of ‘disasters’ in many places around the world. This, in combination with the rapid urbanization and densification that cities have been subjected to make urban spaces further vulnerable if necessary actions are not taken. To be well prepared for unforeseen events in the future, the report suggests planning processes to engage in an indepth contextual analysis, on the basis of which, two kinds of measures can be suggested: Preventative and Reactive. A combination of these processes can be comprised in a contingency plan, which is defined as “A management process that analyses disaster risks and establishes arrangements in advance to enable timely, effective and appropriate responses” (UNDDR, n.d) Trondheim, the third largest city in Norway, is also predicted to face many risks in the years to come due to the presence of many waterbodies, quick clay and mountainous regions. This report is therefore an academic exercise to study a locality in the city based on a hypothetical scenario that was provided and suggest appropriate contingency measures to tackle the uncertainties it entails.

Scenario assignment and Site selection The hypothetical assignment scenario given to the team is, “Trondheim is a very highdensity city and is prone to floods due to heavy rainfall. The municipality has substantial resources and has a disaster management authority.” Based on the presumption above, the neighbourhood of “Ila” in West Trondheim, which has a long history of flooding was chosen for the purpose of this project. Rainfall related flood-risks in this area were analysed and appropriate actions to manage it have been proposed. Ila, is a vast area that comprises a plethora of land-use and building typologies. However, for the scope of this project, we shall only consider the study and design of strategies that impact the predominantly residential zone, shown in figure 1.

Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

Figure 1: Site location (Source: Authorship of the Team)

Figure 2: Project Extents vs Actual Extents of Ila (Source: Authorship of the Team)

Terminology

“Uncertainty refers to the situation in which there is not a unique and complete understanding of the system to be managed.” - (Brugnach, et al., 2008)

Vulnerability refers to “The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards.” – (UNDDR, n.d)

A Disaster is “A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society at any scale due to hazardous events interacting with conditions of exposure, vulnerability and capacity, leading to one or more of the following: human, material, economic and environmental losses and impacts.”- (UNDDR, n.d)

Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

A Hazard is “a process, phenomenon or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.” (UNDDR, n.d)

A (disaster) Risk is “The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity” (UNDDR, n.d)

“Prevention aims at reducing vulnerability and exposure in such contexts where, as a result, the risk of disaster is removed, even while some disasters cannot be avoided.” (UNDDR, n.d)

Response actions are “ taken directly before, during or immediately after a disaster in order to save lives, reduce health impacts, ensure public safety and meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected” (UNDDR, n.d)

Methodology

Even though the team recognizes the need for a participatory approach for better contingency planning, limited stakeholder engagement was conducted due to constraints such as time and GDPR guidelines. Furthermore, due to the focus on terminologies such as ‘risks’ and ‘hazards’, the team wanted to avoid the miscommunication of a ‘disaster risk’ amongst residents despite the hypothetical nature of the project. The core methodology of the project has been guided by the framework laid out in the toolkit, ‘Change Vulnerability and Risk’ by the UN Habitat (2020). Accordingly, the entire project has been divided into four phases:

Figure 3: Project methodology (Source: Authorship of Team, Adapted from the toolkit, ‘Change Vulnerability and Risk’ by the UN Habitat (2020) )

1. Preparation A detailed situational analysis is vital groundwork for any planning task. This is only possible when ample data on the site, it’s existing situation, the residents and the various institutions that impact business as usual is collected. The preparation phase therefore involves data collection through primary and secondary methods of research. While the primary sources were mainly surveys and site visits, the secondary data methods involved collection of information from the internet, news articles, research papers, and the report on the participatory study of the neighbourhood that was carried out in the ‘Urban Ecological Planning Project Course’ by the students of MSc. In Urban Ecological Planning at NTNU in 2021. 2. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Once sufficient information was gathered, the situation in Ila was further interpreted and analyzed. The stakeholders and institutions that influence Ila were analyzed by means of a Power-interest stakeholder diagram. The interpretations were finally classified to identify the vulnerabilities, exposure and hazards in Ila, which helped narrow down the possible risks the neighbourhood faces in the future. Following this, the various qualities of the neighbourhood were segregated using a SWOT table, to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in Ila. 3. Action Planning Based on the situational analysis, an objective was framed for the project using framework suggested in the toolkit, “The Field-Guide to Human Centred Design”. Two prime strategies were chosen to help prioritize the actions that would be further elaborated in the next stage. A literature study of various best practices around the world was undertaken to understand the different solutions that can be contextualized to Ila. 4. Planning and designing for implementation In this phase, the actions have been designed for execution in two phases- Implementation and Operation. A timeline to identify the tentative chronology and duration of these actions has been decided upon. The spatial and technocratic actions of the implementation phase have been humanised in the operation stage. Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

Photo of Ilsvikøra, Authorship of the Team

PHASE 1: PREPARATION Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

DATA COLLECTION Site study

TRO F

INDUST IN

ILSVIKA ILSVIKØRA (LOWLAND)

ILADALEN BYMARKA (HILLY TERRAIN)

LEGEND

SITE BOUNDARY

STREAM

The site is in the west of Trondheim and is bordered by Trondheim Fjord to the north, Bymarka to the west and the city centre to the east. The proximity to the city centre benefits the neighbourhood with frequent public transport connectivity, in addition to the availability of other facilities such as drainage, good roads and network connectivity. The selected area is predominantly residential. However, facilities like schools, nursing homes, clinics, stores, church, and a volunteer centre also exist. The north part of Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

STREAM IN PIPES

GUTTER

Ila is highly industrial and is characterized by large buildings with access to trucks, devoid of social activities. In terms of residential buildings, three main typologies were identified: boat houses anchored to the fjord, older single family wooden houses in the eastern part of the neighbourhood, and multistoried concrete buildings in the western part of Ila. The multi-storied residences were further characterized by private courtyards, and commercial spaces on the first floor.

ONDHEIM FJORD

TRIAL ZONE N ILA

ILA

ILAPARKEN

100 m Figure 4: Site Analysis and land-use typologies (Source: Authorship of the team)

SITE BOUNDARY

TRONDHEIM FJORD AND NIDELVA RIVER The site is surrounded by many natural features. In fact, many of the residents believe it is one of the best things about living in Ila (UEP Report, 2022). Bymarka to the west is a hilly forested region, that remains green throughout the year. The site is also intersected by two water streams that originate in Bymarka and make their way to the Fjord. The flow of these water bodies is controlled by two damns- Theisendammen, and Kobberdammen. The river Nidelva, famous for multiple instances of flooding borders the south of Ila.

Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

NATURAL DRAINAGE N DIRECTION Multiple flood prevention measures are already in place in Ila. The lower course of the stream ‘Ilelva’ has been transformed into a rainwater park, ‘Iladalen’. The course of Ilelva and other streams has been modified and controlled by construction of channels, terraced river beds, and concrete pipes. Ilsvika is developed on a raised pedestal to protect it from flooding due to storm surge from the fjord. These existing measures can very well be used as best practices that can be implemented in other parts of the country with similar contexts.

CLIMATE The Trondheim area has a coastal climate with substantial amounts of precipitation. Figure 5 shows the average precipitation in the Trondheim city centre, between 1991 and 2020, according to which, a yearly average between 750 mm and 1000 mm (light blue) is most common in the city, while some areas have between 1000 and 1500 mm yearly (dark blue). (Senorge, n.d.). Worth noting is that Bymarka, a large hill elevated above the city centre and a popular outdoor recreational area situated southwest of Ila, falls under the dark blue zone, showing higher levels of precipitation. The elevation in Bymarka varies between approximately 200 and 500 m.a.s.l. and with the area collecting a lot of precipitation, this gives way for a set of streams, most notably Ilabekken, running down to Ilsvikøra and out in the fjord. With its location in this runoff zone from Bymarka, Ila is very vulnerable to fluctuations in precipitation that may cause flooding.

Figure 5: Average Rainfall in Trondheim between 1991 and 2020 (Senorge, n.d.)

Flood Risk Study As established, flooding due to high precipitation is a risk at Ila, but flooding could also be caused by other factors. When it comes to expected sea level rise at Ila, this is relatively small, and is not expected to pose a major risk alone. Storm surges on the other hand, already pose a significant challenge, and the size of storm surges is expected to increase in the future.

Figure 7: 200-year storm surge risk areas (NVE, n.d.)

The figures 7 and 8 show how Ila is affected by it, (NVE, n.d.) particularly Ilsvikøra, which can be seen almost fully submerged in the 1000-year storm surge, is very vulnerable to these types of floods, due to its low elevation compared to the rest of Ila. If a storm surge of this magnitude is seen in combination with heavy rainfall or high amounts of meltwater,

Figure 8: 1000-year storm surge risk areas (NVE, n.d.)

Figure 6: Longterm weather forecasts tells us that the climate in Trøndelag is getting warmer and wetter, so we can expect more precipitation in the coming years. (FloodProbe, 2011)

Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

the neighbourhood of Ila appears to be one of the more vulnerable locations in Trondheim, due to the location in close to the sea, and in the outlet area of several streams running down the steep hills from Bymarka. Although an exceptional event, a dam collapse risk area, which could be triggered by heavy precipitation has also been made (Figure 9). If so, this would affect most of Ila. Figure 9 Dam collapse risk map (Trondheim Kommune , n.d.)

Flooding might also occur in one of the two streams that runs out in Ila. Figure 10 shows areas of caution during a possible flood, with Ilabekken, to the right, affecting an area much bigger than stream itself. It is also worth noting that the sewer system in many parts of Trondheim is built before 1965, meaning that the drainage system is not built for peak runoff discharge. (FloodProbe, 2011) This might be particularly problematic in winter, when frozen inlets and pipes can contribute to even slower drainage, especially during winter rain events.

Figure 10: Flooding due to Ioverflowlabekken river (NVE, n.d.)

Between 1978 and 2000, 7 out of 12 major floods occurred during winter. (Jotte, et al., 2017) With two streams passing through the area and a possible insufficient capacity of the drainage system, Ila is also very vulnerable to these types of floods.

Terrain

The terrain surrounding Ila is characterized by the steep hills towards Bymarka. This does not only mean that Ila is exposed to runoffs and snow-melt, but also that landslides could be a possible scenario. Quick clay slides are a risk in the Trøndelag region in general, due to marine deposits. In Ila there are several areas that have been labelled quick clay risk areas (Figure 12). Worth noting is that the red zone covers a high-density residential zone in Ila. However, this risk will not be investigated further as it is beyond the scope of the project.

Figure 11: Section across Bymarka and Ila showing the terrain (Kartverket, n.d.) Figure 12 Quick clay zones (NVE, n.d.)

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Figure 13: Flooding timeline at Ila (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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Demographics Based on the Trondheim’s municipality population forecast both Trondheim city and the Ila area will exhibit an overall slower growth in the coming years. According to the municipality’s website this is due to less immigration and fewer births followed by an increase in the elderly population. (Trondheim Kommune, 2020). As it can be seen on the graphic below with the negative peak close to the year 2030 on the ages from 0-12 years.

Graph 1: Percentage growth in population size from 2020 baseline for age groups, Authorship of the Team, statistical database extracted from (SSBs grunnkretsbaserte statistikk, 2020)

Ila is one of the oldest districts in Trondheim and it is known for its cultural scene and the contrast between the old and new. The area went through a densification process in the early 2000s (Trondheim Kommune, 2022) increasing drastically the population in the areas of Ilsvika and Skansen. In 2020 the whole district of Ila corresponds to 3% of Trondheim’s population (SSBs grunnkretsbaserte statistikk, 2020). This proportion is kept for all years of the forecast (2020 to 2060). The aging of the local population shows a considerable portion of a vulnerable group that requires for specific measures during a hazardous event. The large number of people with less mobility indicates that a standard quick evacuation might be more difficult and less effective. To avoid casualties the process should require earlier alerts sent to the locals and authorities to ensure safety and effectiveness during the operation of the contingency plan. Having the risk groups as priority and attention of all involved in the process. There is another vulnerable group that is hardly predictable, foreigners that are not able to communicate with the locals (Team Ila-UEP, 2021). The neighbourhood’s densification plans with lower prices might justify the percentage of foreigners currently residing in the area (Team Ila-UEP, 2021). And even though the migration numbers are foreseen to be reduced, in an emergency, this group might still exist and be less connected to the neighbours, therefore less aware of danger and the need to exit their residences during an emergency, along with language barriers that might exist. So, this possible vulnerability is also considered.

Figure 14: Resident Survey Response-1 (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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Lastly, the survey conducted by the team shows that despite the vast history of floods and quick clay dangers, the residents of Ila have unfortunately received no training on emergency protocols to be followed when faced with a hazard (Figure 14). Furthermore, only 2 out of 8 respondents acknowledged the flood risk (Figure 15). Participative action is therefore crucial to better equip the residents to respond to the risks they are exposed to.

Figure 15: Resident Survey Response-2 (Source: Authorship of the Team)

Future plans As per the Ila UEP Report (2020), the municipality in an interview stated their plans to make the city centre and the surrounding areas such as Ila more familyoriented in the future by constructing new housing units with a diverse range of apartment typologies for different family types. Figure 16 Future development proposal for Ila with new buildings highlighted (Trondheim Kommune, n.d.) However, they do not prioritize further densification of the area in the immediate future as the area has already attained the city’s desired density. Nevertheless, long term plans do indicate demolition, reconstruction, and refurbishment of several buildings to accommodate the rising population figures as shown in Figure 16

Stakeholders The main stakeholders have been identified and classified based on their geographical levels: national, regional, city, and local level. Then, the power interest matrix represented in Figure 17 was made to provide an overview of the stakeholders and their role regarding flood risk management.

Figure 17: Power-interest matrix of the different stakeholders (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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Four main government agencies have been identified at the national level: •

The Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB), provides regulations and guidelines on safety and preparation protocols for emergencies in local, regional and national levels. (DSB, n.d.)

•

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) is responsible for the management of Norway’s water and energy resources. Due to its expertise in systemic mapping, NVE provides detailed data on floods, landslides and how to reduce the damage caused by it. NVE, 2021)

•

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, forecasts weather, conducts climate research, and is responsible for awareness and rescue services in case of extreme weather. (Meteorologisk Institutt, 2020)

•

The Norwegian Public Roads Administration deals with transport system, an essential facility in emergencies. (Statens vegvesen , n.d.)

These stakeholders have strong decision-making power, but they operate at a national level. Hence, they are not sufficiently interested and cannot provide solutions in specific cases such as Ila. At the regional level, Trøndelag county authority contributes to regional planning (Norwegian Ministry of Local Government and Modernisation, 2014) but they have lower power and interest concerning flood management. At the city level, Trondheim municipality plays a key role in urban planning, disaster preparedness and flood response. Experts, especially academic researchers from NTNU, could help design relevant solutions adapted to the context of Ila.

Furthermore, the humanitarian organizations and emergency services at the city level, such as Trondheim RedCross, Caritas Trondheim, the Norwegian Church Aid, St Olav’s hospital, Trondheim fire rescue service, the police, or some special groups like the Norwegian search and rescue dogs are engaged during a hazardous event. Local economic actors in Ila- such as café, bars, and industries in Ila, residents- both Norwegians and immigrants, new residents and also families who have lived in Ila for many generations are exposed to risks and impacted by adaptive measures the most. These local actors lack sufficient resources to manage flood risk but are still highly interested parties. Their opinion must therefore be considered through participatory methods. Lastly, social media rose as an important communication tool during the pandemic (Team Ila-UEP, 2021). Hence, local groups, websites, the Norwegian Radio Relay League, who can disseminate information should be involved. Trondheim municipality appears as a central stakeholder to implement a contingency planning. However, the institution doesn’t have enough resources to deal with flood management and should follow national guidelines (FloodProbe, 2013). Moreover, the interest of Trondheim municipality in flood management is limited, in that the municipality deals with broad issues. To conclude, there are many authorities in charge of disaster management, that operate independently. As the stakeholder analysis points out, the management of flood risk is indeed shared between different expert groups and corps. FloodProBE (2013) however pinpoints the insufficient communication among private and public stakeholders, and the difficulty to find the relevant interlocutor.

Photo of Ilsvika, Authorship of the Team

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Photo of Ilsvikøra, Authorship of the Team

PHASE 2: VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

Risk assessment

SWOT analysis

Due to climate change and the geographical context, there are different hazards in Ila, especially flood and quick clay. Moreover, the high density of the neighbourhood, the lack of coordination between authorities, the locations and the typologies of the buildings could make Ila more vulnerable. The exposure in Ila is also increased by the presence of vulnerable groups, non-Norwegian residents who don’t speak Norwegian, and the lack of training in case of emergency. Finally, all these elements contribute to increasing the risks in Ila as Figure 18 illustrates.

Despite the risks described in the previous part, which mostly result from the weaknesses and threats presented in Figure 19, Ila also presents many strengths and opportunities. Indeed, the substantial resources available, the presence of a disaster management authority, the experience from previous events, and the quality of the services and the buildings around Ila are key elements to manage risks. Moreover, Iladalen is a relevant flood infrastructure, and the importance of communities as well as the characteristics of the current population decreases the vulnerability in the area.

Figure 19: SWOT analysis of Ila (Source: Authorship of the Team) Figure 18: Risks assessment of Ila (Source: Authorship of the Team, Adapted from the toolkit, ‘Change Vulnerability and Risk’ by the UN Habitat (2020))

Probability-Predictability Matrix

High Low

Probability of occurance

Higher degree • • • •

Heavy rainfall Flooding in Ilsvikøra Process uncertainty Storm surges

• Landslides • Flooding

Degree of predictability

Lower degree

• Foreign migration due to presence of social housing in Ila. • Language barrier

• Dam collapse due to precipitation • Building collapse • Communication blackout

Figure 20: Probability-Predictability Matrix (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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Hazard map

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Photo of Ilabekken, Authorship of the Team

PHASE 3 : ACTION PLANNING Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

OBJECTIVE Vision Zero Toolkit The geographical placement of Ila in combination with the developmental trends makes this region susceptible to flooding due to high precipitation. The external risks stem from a variety of conditions, such as- topography of the area, poor urban drainage, presence of many waterbodies, hardscaping due to development to list a few. A multi-faceted context such as this therefore calls for a multi-faceted solution. Traditional planning processes involved a more spatial-technocratic approach to deal with uncertainty (Fine & Owen, 2005). However, such solutions are futile when implemented independently by different organizations without mutual coordination. Moreover, while these solutions reduce the risks, they don’t fully mitigate it. The demographic group that is exposed to the risk are not just the first to usually respond, but also the ones impacted the most. Decisions and solutions made singularly by those who hold the power are not necessarily the ones a community need or would welcome. Participative action is therefore imperative to successful risk adaptation. The Vision Zero Toolkit aims to adapt Ila to the changing physical, climatic and socio-demographical conditions, and achieve zero casualties in the face of hazards. It envisions to ultimately reduce the impact of high-precipitation related hazards in Ila and is achieved by juxtaposing technocratic, spatial and governance interventions.

STRATEGY To achieve this vision, the toolbox strategizes the combination of two kinds of actions, adaptive and responsive, which are further operationalized through governance reforms and participative planning. Adaptive actions These actions comprise spatial tools that can prevent, mitigate, and adapt to the looming risks identified in the ‘Vulnerability and Risk Assessment’ phase. The blue-green nature of these proposed tools, in addition to tackling the risks, will also have ancillary benefits on the locals such asimproving their well-being, creating new employment sources, avenues for urban farming, etc. Responsive actions The risk of hazards exists during the implementation of physical measures and after its completion. To truly achieve zero casualties, it is fundamental to design a crisis management plan for when the hazardous event occurs, considering the most important asset: humans. The proposed strategy was created based on the stakeholder analysis and should be constantly reviewed, adapted, and updated, when there is a significant change, whether a new public agency or new data regarding local population. Photo of Industrial part of Ila, Authorship of the Team

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CASE STUDIES Valley of Gudbrandsdalen, Norway Gudbrandsdalen is known as the valley of the valleys in Norway, with 230 km of extension, the valley has its plains occupied by farms and other settlements. (Hafjell resort, 2022) After two major flood events (100-year period flood) that were a combination of snowmelt water with an extreme rainfall, nearly 300 homeowners evacuated their homes in 2013. (News in English, 2013) The village looked for solutions to reduce the damages when Figure 21: Aerial photo showing the location of the existing flood barrier, and the proposed one by the event happens again. The risk exists due the (PHUSICOS, 2020) Norwegian extreme weather conditions as well as climate change. (The Norwegian Agency for Local Governments, n.d.) PHUSICOS analysed the case and proposed some nature-based interventions: “One intervention is a receded flood barrier, which allows the river to flood the floodplain riparian forest and the nearest farmland during extreme events, will significantly reduce the risk for areas outside of the barrier, and reduce erosion and sediment deposition in the confluence zone with the main river, where this changes the river bottom and leads to increased flood problems” (2020). The solution was costly and not viable for the village; however, Ila has substantial resources and a smaller area, facilitating this intervention to be built.

Roofscapes, Rotterdam Rotterdam as many modern cities, faces challenges related to its densification. Some of those are: lack of space dedicated to leisure with green areas, water storage, sustainable energy production and efficient use of energy. As part of a study, the urban design company DE URBANISTEN found the opportunity right above them. Rotterdam consists of 14,5 km2 of flat roofs. (DE URBANISTEN, n.d.) Of different typologies and therefore different possibilities. The designers colour coded the possible uses for the roof (DE URBANISTEN, n.d.): • Green vegetated roofs; • Blue roofs to buffer rainwater; • Yellow roofs that generate sustainable energy; • Red roofs that are actively usable for people. Each colour is placed considering the surrounding characteristics and mixed with others, to better suit the users.

Figure 22: Aerial photo showing the location of the existing flood barrier, and the proposed one by

Spongecity, Wuhan Wuhan in central China was formerly known as the “city of one hundred lakes”. The number of lakes here dropped from 127 to 30 from 1949 to 2019 (Jing, 2019), (Huang, 2016) due to decades of rapid urbanisation, changing the areas that were once lakes to buildings or impermeable roads. This interfered with water in natural streams causing waterlogging problem in the now urban settlements. Wuhan then became part of the ‘Chinese Sponge City Programme’, with a goal of “retaining rainfall and make use of natural forces to accumulate, Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

(PHUSICOS, 2020)

infiltrate and purify rainwater like a sponge in a new type of urbanization” (Peng & Reilly, 2021). According to (Oppla, 2021) the natural forces can be better described as nature base solutions, as follows: • Rain gardens • Green roofs • Grass swales and bio-retention facilities Grey infrastructure is part of the solution to achieve the objective of a sponge city, some interventions are: • Permeable pavements • Pervious concrete pavements • Infiltration trenches • Rainwater storage modules

Figure 23: An aerial view of flood-prone Wuhan, sited where the Yangtze and Han rivers merge. Photograph: Sino/Getty

The implementation of the project started in 2015, and when it was tested in 2020, it was observed that even when some areas of the city recorded precipitation as high as 472.3mm in a day, no serious floods or waterlogging occurred. Thus, the intervention was successful when compared to a previous storm event in 2016. Additionally, the green solutions are cost effective when compared to conventional grey solutions, and the city has saved approximately EUR 509 million. (Oppla, 2021)

Figure 24 Sponge city model adapted by (Nie & Jia, 2018)

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Anti-flood system, Venice Venice has been exposed to floods for centuries, and with the constant sea level rise the city is sinking. As a measure to save the city from flooding, the Italian government began to experiment. In 2015 the Experimental Electromechanical Module for flood control was implemented with the intention to hold the water when the tides are forecast to be higher than one meter (Sharma, et al., 2016).

Figure 25: This diagram shows how the gates sit on the sea floor and are lifted when filled with compressed air (Daily Mail UK, 2014)

Due its innovative concept, this project should be observed and studied. The implementation has shown to be costly, and the long-term effects and efficacy are not yet known.

Figure 26: This map shows the three inlets where gates have been constructed, which can be raised to stop flooding inside the lagoon (Daily Mail UK, 2014)

Urban governance for resilience in Cape Town Cape town has had a history of flooding, especially in its low income settlements, which is only predicted to get worse as a result of climate change (Olorunfemi, 2011). Four different institutions in the city, namely, Development Services, Disaster Risk Management Centre (DRMC), Informal Settlements Management (ISM), and Roads and Stormwater (RSW) have been assigned the task of dealing with flood management, but do not effectively meet the desired goal due to a lack of commonality in their approach. Furthermore, the institutions follow a top-down approach, and tackle the situation with solutions that are predominantly technocratic. The local government however has benefited from the establishment of the ‘Task Team’, which brings the key departments together and recognizes the need to engage the community (Ziervogel, et al., 2016). Ziervogel et al therefore suggest that, “the notion of governance in flood risk management can result in a more holistic understanding of the causes, impacts and possible responses to flooding, which can build a platform for developing collaborative activities that will help reduce flood risk in a proactive and holistic way.” (2016) Figure 27: Water policy implementation timeline with the support of the task force in Cape Town (Source: Carden & Fell, 2021)

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Photo of Ilabekken, Authorship of the Team

PHASE 4: PLANNING AND DESIGNING FOR IMPLEMENTATION Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

VISION ZERO TOOLKIT Implementation Plan: Adaptive Strategy- Spatial Toolkit The spatial toolkit comprises interventional tools that can be implemented independently in and around Ila, to achieve the primary objective of hazard adaptation and secondary benefits such as improved well-being, water management, community engagement and employment creation.

Figure 28: Adaptive Strategy Map (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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Urban Tree Belt with Drainage on Slopes What is it? This involves planting local tree species and hedges along slopes to slow down storm water runoff to Ilsvikøra and other parts of Ila. However, excess water could trigger a quick clay release. Therefore, French drains can be located below shallow ditches, called swales, to collect excess rain water and slowly release it to a detention pond or rainwater storage unit.

Figure 29: The picture above shows one of the steep hills in Ila, where a green barrier could be implemented as a measure to reduce flood risk. (Source: Authorship of the Team)

What is it used for? Ila is characterized by several hills extending towards the fjord. The terrain may cause heavy surface water flow in cases of heavy rainfall, and buildings located in the lower end of these hills are vulnerable to flooding. The combination of an urban tree belt with a drainage system can both reduce the water flow and absorb water. It is also effective to prevent soil erosion, and consequently landslides.

How is it done? Slopes around Ilvsikøra and also slopes with quick clay soil, less vegetation and incline higher than critical slope gradient (41.5o -50o) area identified (Qing-quan, et al., 2001). Pipes are laid below the soil to drain out excess water. Then, local plant and tree varieties are planted above this. The slope above the piping can be transformed to a minor swale to further slow down the water flow and enable percolation.

Figure 30: The picture above shows one example of how a green barrier could be implemented as a measure to reduce flood risk (Source: Authorship of the Team).

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Green roof What is it? The high density of Ila has simultaneously resulted in impermeable areas, which do not absorb storm-water runoff, thereby creating a favourable environment for floods. Therefore, green areas are of extreme importance. In dense built areas, one alternative that has become popular over the years is the green roof. Green roofing is a process of growing vegetation over the roof of a building. Figure 31: Ilsvika without green roof (Source: Authorship of the Team)

What is it used for? Its main function is to retain the water from the rain, for eventual evapotranspiration, or discharge to the drainage system at a slower pace (Urbanscape, 2019). This reduces the run-off volume on the streets, sidewalks, and other impermeable areas, reducing the risks of larger damages in the area. It can also create avenues for urban agriculture, which is already a popular community activity in the area (Team Ila-UEP, 2021).

Figure 32: Green roofs designs. (a) Usual layers of a green roof. (b) Example of a green–blue roof with storage layer to prevent flash floods (Brasil, et al., n.d.)

How is it done? Ilsvika has many multi-storeyed residential structures which have the potential for green roofs. The structural capacity of these structures to bear the excess load need to be checked before providing layers for water proofing, and drainage as shown in figure 32. Allowing public access to ‘prototype’ green roofs and linking it with existing urban farming initiatives can enhance the understanding of this concept among the masses and lead to implementation of this tool across the neighbourhood Green Communities, n.d.)

Figure 33: Ilsvika after green roof implementations (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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Storm Drain Catch Basin What is it? This consists of two systems- a detention pond and a storage system. The detention pond is a man-made pond or basin, that can be built along rivers, lakes or even hardscapes, to temporarily store excess storm water before releasing it to a storage system in a controlled manner. Figure 35: Storm drain catch near impermeable development (Bullen, 2021)

What is it used for? This solution is necessary in two circumstances- firstly, when urban settlements are established near the downstream river causing reduction of the permeability of that area, which might increase of urban runoff and subsequently the chances of flood. Secondly, it is also needed when the riverbed has suffered forced changes such as a channelisation. The combination of those examples is the case of Ila. The water collected can be reused for non-potable purposes like gardening and flushing.

Figure 36: Construction of Stormwater chamber on Trondheim Torget, (Source: (Adresseavisen, n.d.)

How is it done? The detention area consists of an inlet, a basin and an outlet. It usually traps sediments and debris while collecting water, which need to be removed from time to time to enable smooth functioning of the system (Apex Companies, LLC, 2020). The storage system can initially be implemented as small tanks at the periphery of buildings and later converted to storm water tunnels under parking areas and roads (Zolbert, 2012), or even larger retention ponds to deal with probable increase in flood risks.

Figure 34: Storm Drain Catch along Ilabekken (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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lsvikøra – Anti-surge system What is it? Ilsvikøra is the part of Ila on the shore of Trondheim fjord. The stream Ilabekken joins the fjords here through a channel. The area is exposed to flood risk by storm surge in the fjord and also obstacles in the stream course that prevent the stream from discharing into the fjord. In order to adapt to stormsurges here, Anti-surge systems, which are physical barriers that drain excess water into a suitable drainage system can be placed in the water. What does it do? Figure 35: Example of the mechanism getting activated (Source: The Times, 2019)

When the water level reaches higher than safe levels, the system tilts itself to allow the excess water to be released into a suitable drainage network. How is it done?

Figure 36: Trondheim Fjord in Ilsvikøra (Source: Authorship of the Team)

The project works with a complex system of barriers and sliding gates that require a comprehensive network of pipes and electric cables (Spitz, 2021). Further study is necessary, and the participation of the local scientific community is required to unfold this project. The proposal is based on the case “Venice with the Experimental Electromechanical Module”.

Figure 36b: Example of Trondheim Fjord with Anti surge system in Ilsvikøra (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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Implementation Plan Summary Before

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After

Vision Zero Toolkit Timeline

Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

Figure 37: Project timeline, Authorship of the Team

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Response strategy- Crisis Management Plan 1 . Setting up of Evacuation points If a hazardous event were to happen, one is dependent on evacuation points. Where do people go when danger is imminent? Approaching this problem, it is preferred to look at the nature of the situation itself. Ila is vulnerable to many situations with different outcomes. As seen in the site analysis, a storm surge would affect a different area of Ila, than if the quick clay area with high degree of danger were to collapse. This also calls for several evacuation points, and evacuation points that are dependent on the situation.

access out of the area. One of the more ‘exceptional events’ to happen is a dam collapse. In this case, the park next to Ilsviken Gård could serve as an evacuation point. This is outside the dam collapse risk area, and an evacuation route could be made towards Killingdal bus stop, for access to the main road. Additional evacuation points can be provided above the high story residential towers, with evacuation by air, to serve all the hazards. There are a lot of different factors that need to be considered when it comes to evacuation points. An important

Figure 38: Consolidated hazard map of Ila (Source: Authorship of the Team)

Ilsvikøra is to be seen as the most vulnerable part of Ila, as it is particularly exposed to storm surges and flooding from Ilabekken. Therefore, an evacuation point at the parking lot outside Mellomila 56 is preferred. This multi-story building is in immediate vicinity of Ilsvikøra and elevated in comparison and is easily accessible by vulnerable groups like old people and children. Another preferred evacuation point is at Ilsvikveien 18, the park next to 3T training centre (figure 39). This is an elevated area in the middle of Ilsvika which gives a rather easy accessibility to many residents in the area. It is outside of the red quick clay zone, and close to Ilsvikveien which gives easy Trondheim - Ila | Ila Vision Zero

factor is that Ila has a varied demography. To make sure that elderly people and people with physical disabilities have an evacuation point, these must also be selected accordingly. The evacuation points need to be as near as possible, and accessible for people with disabilities. The evacuation points proposed above are selected based on the risks and possible scenarios that Ila might face and placed accordingly by logical reasoning. To make sure that the evacuation points are at the most accessible points for everyone, there is a need for a more thorough accessibility analysis, combining a multitude of attributes.

2. Designing Emergency Protocol • The alert is received. • The local authorities, after being informed, begin the emergency procedures each one was assigned to. • Humanitarian organizations: Prepare the shelters and emergency kits. • Hospitals: Inform all health professionals to be on alert for emergency calls, transfer the patients that are not on emergency to another health unit. • Fire department and police force: Check and prepare vehicles for rescue. • Community leaders: Alert residents, make sure the information is received to all, and guide the residents to the evacuation meeting points. • Residents: Buddy check- Each resident is assigned to a neighbour that should be checked on to assure no one is left behind. • Residents proceed to designated evacuation points for rescue. • Emergency personnel make their way to the various evacuation points

Figure 39: Suggested Evacuation points for various hazards events (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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3. Operation Plan

Figure 40: Stakeholder influence and coordination after implementing the Task Force (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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I. Setting up a combined Task-Force and Control Room From the stakeholder analysis, it is evident that several authorities that are equipped with the skillset to manage disasters already exist in the bureaucratic framework. However, they are quite technocratic in nature, and work independently. Furthermore, the residents of the area are exposed the most to the threat. Unfortunately, they currently also have the least say in the matter. Therefore, a task force with representatives from each of these bodies can be set up to co-ordinate the activities of the different institutions. The task force must organize participative activities to assess community needs from time to time before analysing the way forward. The existing voluntary spirit of Ila (Team Ila-UEP, 2021) could prove advantageous in finding community representatives for the task force. In addition to setting up a governance structure, a control room that can co-ordinate the different operations in a hazardous event- rescue, rehabilitation, emergency supplies, first aid, etc. must also be established and maintained by the Task force. II. Training Residents History has shown us that when a hazardous event occurs, it is residents who live in the area that are usually the first responders to the threat. However, the citizen survey of Ila clearly showed that none of the respondents living here had received any prior training on how to react when faced with a threat. An annual training for residents on First aid, Buddy check, first response, evacuation protocols must therefore be organized. Evacuation and response strategies could also be included in educational curriculum.

III. Assigning responsibilities to Institutions The Task Force that is set up should oversee the coordinated operationalization of the following activities: • NVE and MI bear the responsibility to send out alerts to all. • The local authorities will have emergency procedures that should be divided so each one is assigned to a specific task that should be trained at least once a year and reviewed when necessary. • Humanitarian organizations: Recruit volunteers, regularly check shelters’ capacity and if necessary, look for more capacity. Have clear procedures on how to prepare the shelters and emergency kits, and get it approved by the task force annually. • Hospitals: Every year, provide first aid training to residents, community leaders and volunteers, as well as internal training or seminars about extraordinary situations where all health professionals should be on alert for emergency calls and be oriented to transfer the patients that are not in emergency to another health unit. • Fire department and police force: In every semester provide training to residents, community leaders, staff and volunteers about evacuation procedures and safety practices during an emergency.

Figure 41: Participative action, ‘SDG Workshop’ organized by Trondheim kommune (Subendran, 2021)

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Budget Different solutions should be implemented to design a relevant contingency plan. The suggested strategy consists of a mix of spatial actions and organizational solutions, which correspond to different costs and level of stakeholder involvement. Some actions are easy and cheap, but essential, such as the sharing of responsibilities and the identification of evacuation points. On the other hand, some solutions require more human resources as well as coordination among stakeholders, which are then more expensive to set up, especially the design of the emergency protocol, the training of the residents, and the creation of a new institution to coordinate the plan. Finally, spatial interventions require high human and financial resources, in particular the design of green roofs, retention ponds and the suggested anti-surge system which impact urban planning on a larger scale. Despite the high cost of some actions in terms of resources and human needs, these suggestions seem relevant due to the substantial resources available for contingency planning.

Table 1: Cost and main stakeholders involved in the planned actions , (Source: Authorship of the Team)

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Discussion and Conclusion Developing a contingency plan requires a lot of research in many different areas. Planners must recognize that many aspects of this contingency plan would need recurring assessment. The plan proposes several measures to cope with the problematic situations high precipitation can cause. These measures have been selected on the basis of a site analysis, and desirably this analysis and resultant proposals would have been even more thorough. This would result in a more timeconsuming project with an end product exceeding the limitations of this assignment. On the other hand, the authors believe that the proposed project provides a solid foundation for developing a more detailed contingency plan. The Vision Zero Toolkit is a continuous process, designed keeping in mind the continuum model (Choularton, 2007). The model aims at coping with the uncertainty of events, as any given situation is bound to change. Accordingly, contingency planning must be flexible and adaptable to how a certain event develops. A contingency plan is therefore never a finished plan. Furthermore, the tools suggested by the toolkit are inexhaustive. With change in development and advancement of new technology, it is likely that newer, more efficient tools will be available for execution. For instance, Wuhan uses IoT (Internet of Things) to predict floods by monitoring its sewer networks in real time (Interesting Engineering, 2021). Exploration of the feasibility of IoT for flood predictability, and possibly automating the coordination of the many tools in Ila would be an interesting undertaking. Providing a toolkit, as opposed to a step-by-step plan leaves room for integrating such ‘advanced’ methods . Despite earnest efforts from all stakeholders, certain contextual elements can always be overlooked due to prejudice, politics and other factors. Often, these come into the limelight when a hazard manifests itself. Looking at the continuum model, the aftermath of an emergency is seen as a very important learning process, and it is seen crucial that further assessments are being made based on the experiences the emergency gives us. Following this model, the toolkit does not only prepare us for a possible emergency, but also the next one, and the next one after, as the cycle of learning lessons continues...

Figure 42: Continuum in contingency planning (Choularton, 2007)

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