EVALUATION OF CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION OF GCIP PROJECTS – CREATING A BETTER FUTURE FOR PAKISTAN
REPORT 2016
UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION GLOBAL CLEANTECH INNOVATION PROGRAMME
This report is based on Global Cleantech Innovation Programme (GCIP) projects to calculate emission reductions of projects that are carried out in 2016. The study involves research work with key authority of United Nation Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). The UNIDO has overseen the development of this study. The report was prepared by Asma Khalil, Student of Bahria University, Islamabad, supervised by Mr. Hammad Bashir (Technical Expert, Cleantech Pakistan – UNIDO) and Mr. Asif Javed (Associate Professor – Bahria University, Islamabad). Mr. Hammad Bashir Technical Expert, Cleantech Pakistan UNIDO Phone : +92518354813 Email : m.saeed@unido.org Mr. Asif Javed Assistant Professor Bahria University, Islamabad Phone : +923005684124 Email : asifjavedkhan@hotmail.com Ms. Asma Khalil, MS Environmental Science Bahria University, Islamabad Phone : +923365537113 Email :asmach13@yahoo.com
CONTENTS List of Tables ……………………………………………………… List of Figures
i
……………………………………………………...
iii
List of Abbreviations
……………………………………………...
iv
Project Summary
………………………………………………
vii
1. Introduction ……………………………………………………………... 1.1. Climate Change ……………………………………………... 1.2. Climate Change in Pakistan …………………………….... 1.3. Conference of parties and Pakistan ………………………
1 1 1 4
2. UNIDO 2.1. 2.2.
……………………………………………………………… GCIP ……………………………………………………… UNIDO – Cleantech in Pakistan ……………………………… 2.2.1. Framework of Activities ……………………………………… 2.2.2. Description of GCIP Projects ……………………………… 2.2.3. Projects Details ………………………………………………
5 6 6 7 10 11
3. Methodology ……………………………………………………………… 3.1. Environmental Analysis ……………………………………… 3.1.1. Tier 1 ……………………………………………………… 3.1.2. Energy Baseline and its Development ……………………… 3.1.3. Emission Reductions ……………………………………… 3.2. Economic Analysis ……………………………………… 3.2.1. Pay Back Period ………………………………………………
18 18 18 18 19 27 27
4. Results 4.1.
28 30
……………………………………………………………………… Benefits of projects through CDM ………………………………
5. Conclusion
………………………………………………………………
31
6. Recommendations/policy implications ………………………………………
32
7. Bibliography
33
8. Glossary 9. Annexure – (A)
………………………………………………………………
LIST OF TABLES Table No.
Caption
Page No.
1
Energy Demand Projections (2005-2030)
2
2
Scenario of Energy Security
4
3
Details of Project Solar Water Pump
11
4
Details of Project Bitsym Watersense
12
5
Details of Project Jal Bujh
13
6
Details of Project BOLT Bike
14
7
Details of Project Biomass Gasifier
15
8
Details of Project Dry Bio-waste Gasifier
16
9
Details of Project IoT Device
17
10
Emission reduction of solar water pump
20
11
Emission reduction of bitsym watersense device
21
12
Emission reduction of jal bujh device
22
13
Emission reduction of BOLT Bike
23
14
Emission reduction of biomass gasifier cooking stove
24
i
15
Emission reduction of agricultural dry biowaste gasifier
25
16
Emission reduction of IoT Device
26
17
PBP of Projects
27
18
Total emission reduction of all Projects
30
ii
LIST OF FIGURES Figure No.
Caption
Page No.
1
Framework of Activities
8
2
Map of Pakistan – target areas of study
10
3
Mono-block Surface DC Solar Water Pump
11
4
Bitsym Watersense Device
12
5
Jal bujh Device
13
6
BOLT Bike
14
7
Biomass Gasifier: Biomass fired cook stoves
15
8
Agricultural dry bio-waste gasifier
16
9
IoT Device
17
10
Total emission reduction of all projects
28
11
Emission reduction of GCIP projects
29
iii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BAU
Business As Usual
BTU
British Thermal Unit
CDM
Clean Development Mechanism
CER
Certified Emission Reduction
Cleantech
Clean Technology
CO2
Carbon-dioxide
COP
Conference Of Parties
DC
Direct Current
GEF
Global Environment Facility
GHG
Greenhouse Gas
Hp
Horse Power
INDC
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Kg
Kilogram
Km
Kilometer
iv
kW
Kilowatt
kWh
Kilowatt Per Hour
Ltr
Litre
MMBTU
Million British Thermal Unit
MtCDE
Metric Tons of Corbon-dioxide Equivalent
Mtoe
Million Tons of Oil Equivalent
MW
Mega Watt
NPO
National Productivity Organization
NCTP
National Cleantech Platform
OECD
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PBP
Pay Back Period
PCST
Pakistan Council for Science and Technology
PIM
Pakistan Institute of Management
PM
Prime Minister
SMEs
Small and Medium Sized Enterprises
tCO2e
Tons of Carbon-dioxide Equivalent
v
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USA
United States of America
USD
United States Dollars
WAPDA
Water And Power Development Authority
vi
PROJECT SUMMARY Climate change is an emerging serious global challenge. The impacts are being visible in the form of natural calamities, which is affecting human lives around the world. Pakistan has been experiencing severe weather patterns, killing countless people and wiping out acres of farmland across the country. Therefore, Pakistan is ranked among the top 10 countries most at risk in context of climate change. Pakistan‘s GHG emissions have nearly doubled in the past 16 years and is on 137th number and contributing almost 0.47 percent (0.2 million metric tons) in global GHG emissions, but it is consistently ranked among the countries that have harmful effects of climate change, owing to its natural climatic conditions. UNIDO is managing a global programme called Global Cleantech Innovation Programme. It is involved in promoting Cleantech innovation programs for SMEs around the world in order to promote inclusive and sustainable industrial development. This competition is simultaneously been carried out in seven countries around the world, the main aim of this competition is to foster innovations in Renewable energy, Energy Efficiency, Water Efficiency and Waste to Energy. The 'Global Cleantech Innovation Programme for SMEs and Startups' for small businesses seeks to promote clean energy technology innovations through a cross-sectoral and multi-tiered approach that combines strengthening of the national technology innovation policy framework with institutional strengthening so as to build a sustainable “ecosystem� for innovative entrepreneurship in small businesses. The study comprises of seven small projects under the GCIP, UNIDO. All seven innovative projects base on new innovated devices or technologies that are claimed to be zero emission or less emission. Carbon emission reduction of these technologies is calculated as compared to other non renewable resources as BAU. Furthermore, the study comprises of three main parts. The first part is descriptive analysis in which the basic information about the projects was captured like; expenditure on energy items, and the use of alternative sources of energy and the relative costs associated with the non-renewable resources consumption. In the second part, environmental analysis was carried out to estimate the carbon emission reductions that would have occurred in the absence of the projects that depicted clear results of overall emission reduction levels of all the projects. The projects are compared with non-renewable resources as BAU to assess and calculate CO 2
vii
emissions by the use of non-renewable resources in absence of project activity. Finally, in the third part, economic analysis was undertaken, which included the estimation of Pay Back Period (PBP) of the GCIP projects. The collected data was then entered into Microsoft Excel for statistical analysis. Lastly, the analysis estimated the total emissions that will be reduced by the projects. This reduction is 196.9503 tCO2e per annum. This reduction in CO2 could earn Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) through CDM which is also a benefit from these projects. Setting the price of one tone of CO2 as $23, the total value of the CERs will be $4,529.85 per annum.
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1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Climate Change Climate is the average weather conditions at a particular place over a period of 11 to 40 years generally. It refers to a number of factors i.e. temperature, behavior of winds and air pressure. A change of climate is directly or indirectly related to human activity that alters the composition of the atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability over comparable time periods leads to air quality deterioration. The growing rate of industrialization, the burning of greater quantities of fossil fuels (e.g. coal, gas and oil) and the unchecked destruction of forest cover has resulted in increased levels of carbon-dioxide (CO2) being emitted into the atmosphere. This carbon covers the earth, trapping its heat, causing global warming, which in turn leads to climate change. There are growing global consensus that climate change is human kind’s greatest threat in modern times and is likely to have profound consequences on socio-economic sectors such as health, food production, energy consumption, security and natural resource management. Thus, global climate change resulting from an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere has become an accepted and major theme of today‘s world. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature of the earth increased by 0.6°C over the last century and it is expected to further increase by 1 to 3.5°C (about 2 to 6°F) by the year 2100, with an associated rise in sea level of 15 to 95cm (about 6 to 37inches).
1.2. Climate Change in Pakistan Climate change is a serious global challenge. The impacts are being visible in the form of natural calamities and catastrophes, which is badly affecting human lives around the world. Deforestation, melting glaciers, rise in sea level and rapid urbanization all contribute to climate change. There is little doubt that pollution, industrialization and deforestation have added to climatic woes, producing abundant amount of GHG emissions in the environment. With rising population already feeding on scarce resources, the climate change time bomb is ticking for the country. Pakistan, a country whose range includes high mountains, arid plains and
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low lying coastal areas, is extremely vulnerable to a whole diversity of climate change impacts. It is important to recognize and understand the nation‘s role in the production of GHGs. Pakistan‘s
biggest
contributor
is the energy
sector
with
a 50%
share
followed
by
the agriculture sector (39%), industrial processes (6%) and other activities (5%). The GHG inventory of Pakistan shows that energy sector emissions were 157MtCDE (50.7% of total emissions) in 2008 and these were expected to grow 17 fold by 2050, to 2730MtCDE (64% of total emissions). The reason why these emissions are expected to grow significant by 2050 is because the size of the energy sector is expected to increase considerably due to higher population, industry needs and expected growth across all sectors of economy. Emissions are also expected to increase dramatically by 2050 as the country will be meeting the increased energy demands through an increased reliance upon coal resources, which are reportedly equivalent to the combined oil reserves of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Energy Demand Projections by Fuel in Pakistan’s Energy Security Action Plan (2005 – 2030) 2005
2030
Mtoe
Share (%)
Mtoe
Share (%)
Oil
16.33
29.4
66. 84
18.5
Natural Gas
28.17
50.8
162.58
45
Coal
4.22
7.6
68.65
19
Hydro
6.13
11
38.93
10.8
Renewable
0
0
9.2
2.5
Nuclear
0.67
1.2
15.11
4.2
Total
55.5
100
361.31
100
Table 1: Energy Demand Projections (2005-2030)
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Pakistan‘s GHG emissions have nearly doubled in the past 16 years. Temperatures in northern Pakistan have already been estimated to increase by 1.9 degree centigrade in the past century and resultantly, glacial cover in Pakistan is on the decline. According to recent data on GHG emissions from 2011 to 2015, China and USA are among world’s top emitters of carbon dioxide. Pakistan is on 137 th number and contributing only 0.47 percent (0.2 million metric tons) in global GHG emissions, but it is consistently ranked among the countries that have harmful effects of climate change, owing to its natural climatic conditions. Over the years, Pakistan has been experiencing severe weather conditions, mass destruction and wiping out acres of farmland across the country. German watch, an international think tank, has warned that Pakistan is among the top 10 countries most at risk due to climate change. The year 2015 was a terrible year for Pakistan; salinity of coastal areas, deadly heat wave, mangroves depletion, hazardous cyclone and floods were devastating repercussions of climate change in the country. In Karachi alone, over 1200 people lost their lives due to last year’s deadly heat wave. Furthermore, with the rise in temperature around the country and mangrove forest depletion across the coast, the National Institute of Oceanography has warned that there is clear danger that many parts of Karachi could be drown in next 35-45 years. According to the experts, if climate change would not be taken seriously, the resulting damage will be irreversible and unimaginable for the country. This information leads to the scientific reality governing all GHG emissions: they are mainly created by the developed world yet their consequences are felt globally. Much like other developing countries, Pakistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, putting its water, food and energy security, as well as the livelihoods of millions of people, at stake. Table 2 explains the assertion made above:
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Country/region
Per Capita Energy Per
Capita
CO2 CO2 Emissions Per Unit
Consumption
Emissions
(tCO2/ Energy
(toe/capita)
capita)
(tCO2/ toe)
World
1.77
4.18
2.37
USA
7.91
19.73
2.49
OECD
4.73
11.09
2.34
China
1.25
3.66
2.93
India
0.53
1.02
2.40
Pakistan
0.49
0.76
1.56
Bangladesh
0.16
0.24
1.47
Consumption
Table 2: Scenario of Energy Security
1.3. Conference of Parties and Pakistan The UNFCCC was formed as a response to the increasingly negative impacts of climate change and the Conference of the Parties (COP) are held every year to discuss and agree upon approaches to deal with it. The COP 21, held at Paris in 2015, was extremely important as it intended to achieve this universal and legally binding agreement on combating climate change (the Global Climate Agreement), primarily by trying to achieve the extremely difficult task of keeping global warming below 20°C. This means that all signatory countries are required to communicate the contributions they will make to this end i.e. what actions will they be putting in place to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to combat climate change. This global climate agreement assumed to serves as the mechanism for all future action. In COP 22, 2016, it was stated that Pakistan’s GHG emissions will increase from 405 CO 2e in 2015 to 1600 in 2030. This covers energy, agriculture, transport, industrial process, forestry and waste. So, in contrast to the vague, 2 page INDC submission last year, the current 31 page INDC submitted to the secretariat the country pledged to cut its business as usual emissions by 20% by
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2030. This however, is dependent on receiving up to USD 40 billion in aid. In the INDC, Pakistan estimates a quadrupling of its carbon emissions from 5 sectors (excluding transportation) from 400 million currently to over 1.6 billion by 2030. Even with the 20% reduction in the GHG output, its carbon emissions will still have more than tripled by 2030.
2. United Nations Industrial Development Organization The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) is the specialized agency of United Nations that promotes industrial development for poverty reduction, inclusive globalization and environmental sustainability. The mandate of UNIDO is to promote and accelerate inclusive and sustainable industrial development in developing countries and economies in transition. Within this context, in 2011, the Government of South Africa, with the support of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and UNIDO, successfully implemented the ‘Greening the COP17’ project. One of the four components of the project focused on the design and implementation of the first South Africa Clean Technology Competition for green entrepreneurs and small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) with innovative ideas and concepts in the areas of energy efficiency, renewable energy and green building practices. This competition was a great success as it drew the interest of policy makers and private sector and uniquely interlinked the issues of employment, green growth, and the role of science and innovation in the area of clean technologies. Building on this success, and on the lessons learned, the GEF and UNIDO have agreed to develop a global flagship programme to promote Cleantech innovations and Cleantech entrepreneurs around the world. This is in line with the GEF Council’s Revised Strategy for Enhancing Engagement with the Private Sector, Modality 3, namely “SME Competition Pilot: Encouraging Entrepreneurs and Innovators,” which provides support to entrepreneurs and innovators seeking to establish commercial ventures in clean technologies. Given the significance and contribution of small businesses to the promotion of job creation and overall economic development of Pakistan, UNIDO has developed a GEF funded Cleantech Programme for SMEs in Pakistan, emphasizing the promotion of innovations in clean
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technologies. Supported by the Pakistan Council for Science and Technology (PCST), National Productivity Organization (NPO), and Pakistan Institute of Management (PIM), the project was approved by the GEF Secretariat in September 2013.
2.1. Global Cleantech Innovation Programme UNIDO is managing a global programme called Global Cleantech Innovation Programme (GCIP). It is involved in promoting Cleantech innovation programs for SMEs around the world in order to promote inclusive and sustainable industrial development. Cleantech is a global competition aimed at promotion of Innovations in the area of Clean Technologies. This competition is simultaneously been carried out in seven countries around the world, the main aim of this competition is to foster innovations in Renewable energy, Energy Efficiency, Water Efficiency and Waste to Energy. The target market of Cleantech competition is SMEs and Startup companies. This programme involves extensive mentoring, training, access to investors and opportunities to showcase their innovations. Winners will be given prizes ranging from US$ 15,000 to 20,000 plus winners will be given further mentorship and training in Silicon Valley, USA”. Cleantech is basically a business accelerator programme which is aimed at converting the Cleantech ideas into viable businesses.
2.2. UNIDO – Cleantech in Pakistan The 'Global Cleantech Innovation Programme for SMEs and Startups' for small businesses seeks to promote clean energy technology innovations through a cross-sectoral and multi-tiered approach that combines strengthening of the national technology innovation policy framework with institutional strengthening so as to build a sustainable “ecosystem” for innovative entrepreneurship in small businesses. The project focuses on fostering emerging clean energy technology start-ups in Pakistan, enhancing engagement with the private sector, scaling up the momentum for sustainable development and strengthening the policy framework as required. The project employs a competition-based ecosystem approach to identify the most promising entrepreneurs across the country. A local business acceleration programme supports, promotes and “de-risks” the participating companies and connects them to potential investors, customers, and partners. An integral part of this project is strengthening the institutional infrastructure and
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capacity of local implementing partners, which are mainly government agencies, focused on fostering cleantech innovations.
2.2.1. Framework of Activities Following are main component as per the project document;
Project Component 1: National Cleantech Platform (NCTP) to promote clean technology innovations and Competitiveness in SMEs in Pakistan to deliver global environmental benefits. Output: A coordination mechanism/ platform established at the national level to promote clean technology innovations and entrepreneurship; clean energy technology innovators identified, coached and supported during and beyond the Cleantech competition.
Project Component 2: It’s capacity enhancement initiative for clean technology innovations. Output: National institutional capacity build for mentoring and training programmes as part of the competition and accelerator programme.
Project Component 3: Policy and regulatory framework strengthened for scaling up of Cleantech competition, innovations and acceleration activities across Pakistan
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Output: Policies and institutional framework strengthened to promote Cleantech innovations in SMEs and support the local innovation ecosystems in the country. The following project activities are been carried out to cater for all the three components of the project.
Figure 1: Framework of Activities
Activity 1 Applications are solicited from our target market that is Startups and SMEs working or related to our thematic areas i.e. Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Waste to Energy and Water Efficiency. A two to two and half months outreach activity is carried out, comprising of Seminars, Social Media, Print media, and other means of information dissemination. Target markets are technical universities, Chambers, research institutions etc. Applicants have to apply online at the online module only.
Activity 2 Semifinalists are announced after Round 1 Judging that is scrutiny of applications by a panel of 3 external and neutral judges. Semifinalists are our subject, for the purpose of other activities.
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Activity 3 National academy held, in which semifinalist are trained on making and improving their business plans, this activity is followed by Business Clinics. Which are meetings held with all semifinalists whereby the problems and issues in their business plan is discussed and suggestions are made on how to improve these.
Activity 4 Each Semifinalist is assigned two mentors i.e. Specialist (the subject expert) and Generalist (the business expert) plus an international mentor to guide them on international best practices. Simultaneously a series of webinars starts, these seminars are webcasted directly from Silicon Valley USA, for Semifinalist, it is an interactive session on 10 topics which are crucial business aspects for any startups.
Activity 5 Mock judging activity is preparation and improvement of teams for their final judging activity in which marks are not given but improvement is suggested in their final presentation.
Activity 6 The final judging activity is carried out, where a panel of 5 external judges attend the final presentations and give their marks based on which the National Winner and Runner ups are decided.
Activity 7 Final gala event is held where the winners are announced.
Activity 8 Winners proceed to Silicon Valley, USA to attend the Global Forum and meet with the potential investors.
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Post Competition Services Offered: UNIDO provides the semi-finalists, a bunch of services like; Incubation services, Investor connect, testing and calibration services to help them improve their business prospects.
2.2.2. Description of GCIP Projects The study comprises of seven small projects under the GCIP, UNIDO. All seven innovative projects base on new innovated devices or technologies that are claimed to be zero emission or less emission. Carbon emission reduction of these technologies is calculated as compared to other non renewable resources as BAU. There are seven projects of GCIP that are covered in this study. Two of them are Islamabad based, four are Lahore based and one is Karachi based project.
Figure 2: Map of Pakistan – target areas of study
2.2.3. Projects Details Project 1 Company
Pak Agro Tech International
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name City Product name Description
Islamabad DC Solar Water Pump The ‘Mono-block Surface DC Solar Water Pump’ runs on direct sun light. It works efficiently in regions with shallow water depth and saves the costs of electricity or diesel. It provides more water in less time and energy as compared to other normal solar water pumps that grabs more uniqueness to it
BAU
in the market. The alternative non-renewable energy options for the purpose of pumping
NRE Source GHG
water are use of electricity or the diesel engines. Electricity and Diesel CO2 (in both electricity and diesel)
Emissions Table 3: Details of Project Solar Water Pump
Figure 3: Mono-block Surface DC Solar Water Pump
Project 2 Company
Bitsym International
name City Product name Description
Islamabad Bitsym Watersense Device The device sits in water tanks and periodically releases disinfectants so that water can get free of any bacterial impurities that could be hazardous for
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BAU
human health. The common practice used as an alternate to disinfect water, by most of the
NRE Source GHG
people is boiling water. Natural Gas (in normal stoves) CO2
Emissions Table 4: Details of Project Bitsym Watersense
Figure 4: Bitsym Watersense Device
Project 3 Company
Zaheen Machines
name City Product name Description
Lahore Jal Bujh Device The device has capability to turn gas burning water heaters on and off manually or via time schedule setup by a smart phone application. This device directly cuts off the wastage of natural gas and therefore, saves the
BAU
cost and natural resource. Natural gas is non-renewable energy source, which is used in these
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NRE Source GHG
thermostat water heaters. Natural Gas CO2
Emissions Table 5: Details of Project Jal Bujh
Figure 5: Jal bujh Device
Project 4 Team name City Product name Description
BOLT Bikes Lahore BOLT Bike BOLT Bike is a hybrid technology bicycle run by battery power and human muscle power (pedaling) and therefore, cuts off the cost and consumption of
BAU
petrol in a normal bike. This hybrid bicycle will be compared with the petrol (motor gasoline) consumption rate of a motorcycle and average emissions emitting from that
NRE Source GHG
on road vehicle. Petrol (motor gasoline) CO2
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Emissions Table 6: Details of Project BOLT Bike
Figure 6: BOLT Bike
Project 5 Team name City Product name
Biofire Renewable Energy Lahore Biomass Cooking Stove
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Description
Biomass fired cook stoves run by palletized dry agriculture waste. These stoves cut off the wastage of natural gas and save the cost and natural resource. In addition smokeless and noiseless operation of this product
BAU
makes it unique. This biomass gasifier cook stove has replaced a normal cooking stove that
NRE Source GHG
either run on natural gas or dry biomass (wood). Natural gas and dry biomass (wood) CO2
Emissions Table 7: Details of Project Biomass Gasifier
Figure 7: Biomass Gasifier: Biomass fired cook stoves
Project 6 Company
Tawanai Solutions
name City Product name Description
Lahore Dry Bio-Waste Gasifier Agricultural dry bio-waste gasifier, run by palletized dry crop waste that produces syn-gas with high hydrogen component. This gasifier can be used
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BAU NRE Source GHG
in agriculture for running tractors. Alternative non renewable energy source in this project is Petrol (Gasoline). Natural gas and Diesel CO2
Emissions Table 8: Details of Project Dry Bio-waste Gasifier
Figure 8: Agricultural dry bio-waste gasifier
Project 7 Company
Nexdegree
name City Product name Description
Karachi IoT Device IoT device sits in the mains of home and office buildings and collects detailed information about energy consumption. This allows people to identify devices that are running inefficiently and enables the user to not only reduce their energy costs but also reduce their carbon footprint through less
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BAU
energy wastage. Alternative non renewable energy sources in this project in case of household cooking and heating is natural gas, and in case of running tractors, water
NRE Source GHG
pumps, industrial fuel furnace and electricity generators is diesel. Natural gas and Diesel CO2
Emissions Table 9: Details of Project IoT Device
Figure 9: IoT Device
3. METHODOLOGY This part is further divided into three sections. In the first section, descriptive analysis is undertaken to capture the basic information about the projects like; expenditure on energy items, and the use of alternative sources of energy and the relative costs associated with the nonrenewable resources consumption. The collected data was then entered into Microsoft Excel for statistical analysis. In the second stage, environmental analysis is carried out to estimate the carbon emission reductions that would have occurred in the absence of the projects. In the third stage, economic analysis is undertaken, which includes the estimation of Pay Back Period (PBP) of the GCIP projects.
3.1. Environmental Analysis
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GCIP project are clean source projects that causes no or less GHG emissions. The generation of clean energy through these projects replaces use of non-renewable resources (NRR) and thus leads to reduction in CO 2 emissions. The collected data is analyzed by using Tier 1 methodology of IPCC Guidelines, 2006.
3.1.1. Tier 1 The Tier 1 method is fuel-based, since emissions from all sources of combustion can be estimated on the basis of the quantities of fuel consumed and average emission factors. Tier 1 emission factors are available for all relevant direct GHGs. The quality of these emission factors differs between gases. For CO2 emission factors mainly depend upon the carbon content of the fuel. Formula: Carbon Emission Reduction = Fuel Consumed x Emission Factor
3.1.2. Energy Baseline and Its Development The energy baseline is the fuel consumption of technology that would have been used in the absence of the project activity. The emission baseline is calculated using the aggregate of annual kW /kg /BTU /liter per hour output of all the projects times the CO 2 emission factor for the fuel displaced. To estimate the total annual emission reductions, first the total annual energy generation by aggregating the project in hours is calculated. Then, it is multiplied by the emission factor of the displaced fuel. Lastly, it is converted to tones of CO 2e.
3.1.3. Emission Reductions This part describes that how the anthropogenic GHG emissions by sources are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of these projects. As there is less progress to green technology or innovations, there is more probability of using non-renewable resources by the local population. This practice leads to more use of costly fuels. This not only leads to more expenditure on fossil fuels but also causes GHG emissions. Moreover, due to increase in
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population and demand for energy, there are high chances that there will be more consumption of non-renewable resources. Therefore, GCIP projects are expected to reduce the GHG emissions that would otherwise be produced by the use of non-renewable resources.
Project 1 DC Solar Water Pump It is totally dependent on sunlight, and has no direct carbon emissions so alternatively we consider the pump running on electricity from WAPDA. A solar water pump works for 8 hours maximum in winters and 12 hours in summers depending on the length of the day and variation in the duration of sunlight in both seasons. Considering the load shedding, line losses, and other faults; average 8 hours are taken for continues consumption of electricity to run a water pump of 10hp motor that consumed 7.4kW per hour. Total emissions are 8.92tCO 2e per annum that are reduced by replacing the electric water pump with solar water pump.
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In second case, the diesel generator is used for operating 10hp pump for 8 hours daily in the absence of project activity. Total emissions are 7.78tCO 2e per annum that are reduced by replacing the diesel powered water pump with solar water pump.
BAU
Annual Consumption
Carbon Emission/year
Electricity
21,312kWh
8.8 tCO2e
Diesel
2,880litre
7.78 tCO2e
Total Emission Reduction of Solar Water Pump
16.58 tCO2e/yr
Table 10: Emission reduction of solar water pump
Project 2 Bitsym Watersense The device is attached to water tank entry point where it gets activated when water is supplied to the storage tank and disinfects the water. Boiling water on stove is a common practice for the same purpose of disinfecting the water that consumes natural gas in the process. Although the device is far more efficient and purifies greater quantity of water in less time as compared to common practice, the quantity of natural gas consumed to boil one liter of water in one hour in a normal one burner stove and quantity of wood used for same task is considered to calculate the emissions. Usually 4 hours per day are considered to boil 4 liters of water a day that can serve drinking water to two persons daily.
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Total emissions are 0.000684tCO 2e per annum that are reduced by replacing the BAU with Bitsym Watersense device. In second case, the dry wood is used as a burning fuel for boiling water for the same purpose of disinfecting water to make it drinkable. Same scenario of time and quantity is taken as mentioned above but, in case of dry wood, generally 2kg wood consumes in 1 hour. Total emissions are 4,723.2tCO 2e per annum that are reduced by replacing the wood consumption Bitsym Watersense device. BAU
Annual Consumption
Carbon Emission/year
Natural Gas
13.680mmBTU
0.000684 tCO2e
Wood
2,880kg
5.199 tCO2e
Total Emission Reduction of Bitsym 5.199684 tCO2e/yr Watersencse Device Table 11: Emission reduction of bitsym watersense device
Project 3 Zaheen Machines – Jal Bujh Device The device is attached to a 35 gallon geyser that runs on natural gas. It is used to operate the device automatically through a mobile application. Usually the natural gas burns in the geyser for continually 24 hours a day, but through this device the timing can be controlled and time slots are set in mobile application to on and off the geyser via Jal Bujh device. In this case the consumption of natural gas in geyser cuts down from 24 hours to approximately 6 hours a day by saving 18 hours of natural gas wastage. In case of consumption for 24 hours, total emissions are 0.014tCO 2e per annum. In case of consumption for 6 hours a day, total emissions are 0.010409tCO 2e per annum.
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BAU Natural
Annual Consumption
Carbon Emission/year
Gas 287.28mmBTU
0.014 tCO2e
Gas 71.82mmBTU
0.010409 tCO2e
(24 hrs) Natural (6 hrs) Total Emission Reduction of Jal bujh 0.003591 tCO2e/yr Device Table 12: Emission reduction of jal bujh device
Project 4 BOLT Bike It is a two wheeler bike with special design of hybrid technology that runs by battery power and human muscle power (pedaling) and therefore, cuts off the cost and consumption of petrol in a normal bike. This hybrid bicycle is compared with the petrol (motor gasoline) consumption rate of a motorcycle and average emissions emitting from that on road vehicle. This bicycle is compared with a Honda 70 by Atlas Honda motor bike, which is the most economical motorcycle in Pakistan. Besides being most economical it is also most popular, durable and most selling motorbike in Pakistan that is the reason why it is chosen to be compared with BOLT Bike.
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Honda 70 claims to give ride of 45 miles (72km) per litre but generally it rides almost 60km in per litre of petrol in a normal traffic flow. The bike has 9-litre fuel tank, and its current price is Rs. 70,000. Total emissions are 0.83tCO 2e per annum that are reduced by replacing the motor bike with BOLT Bike.
BAU
Annual Consumption
Carbon Emission/year
Petrol
360litre
0.83 tCO2e
(Gasoline) Total Emission Reduction of BOLT Bike
0.83 tCO2e/yr
Table 13: Emission reduction of BOLT Bike
Project 5 Biomass Cooking Stove Biomass fired cooking stoves run on palletized dry agriculture waste. These stoves cut off the wastage of natural gas and save the cost and natural resource. In addition smokeless and noiseless operation of this product makes it unique. This biomass gasifier cooking stove has replaced a normal cooking stove that either run on natural gas or dry biomass (wood). In case of natural gas, total emissions are 0.001026tCO2e per annum. In case of dry wood, total emissions are 7.8tCO 2e per annum.
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BAU
Annual Consumption
Carbon Emission/year
Natural Gas
20.52mmBTU
0.001026 tCO2e
Dry Wood
4,320kg
7.8 tCO2e
Total Emission Reduction of biomass gasifier 7.801026 tCO2e/yr cooking stove Table 14: Emission reduction of biomass gasifier cooking stove
Project 6 Agriculture Dry Biomass Gasifier Agricultural dry bio-waste gasifier, run by palletized dry crop waste that produces syn-gas with high hydrogen component. This gasifier can be used in agriculture for running tractors of 50 – 85hp. Alternative non renewable energy resource used in this project is Petrol (Gasoline). A tractor consumes approximately 7litre petrol per hour and standard 7 hours per day are taken as an operational period of tractor on a normal (neither hard nor soft) surface. Dry agricultural bio-waste is consumed in this project that otherwise be dumped in a landfill that ultimately contributes in GHG emissions. During project activity emissions from landfill are also reduced. In case of Petrol (Gasoline) consumption, total emissions are 40.97tCO 2e per annum.
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In case of agricultural dry bio-waste landfill dumping, total emissions are 0.126tCO 2e per annum.
BAU
Annual Consumption
Carbon Emission/year
Petrol (Gasoline)
17,640litre
40.97 tCO2e
Landfill dumping of dry 5040kg
0.126 tCO2e
agriculture bio-waste Total Emission Reduction of Agricultural dry bio- 41.096 tCO2e/yr waste gasifier Table 15: Emission reduction of agricultural dry bio-waste gasifier
Project 7 IoT Device An IoT device sits in the mains of home, office, building collecting detailed information about energy consumption. The device pushes the information to the cloud nexdegree tells the user exactly how they are consuming power. This allows people to identify devices that are running inefficiently as well as to assess exactly where the primary power draw is coming from. This actionable information enables the user to not only reduce their energy costs but also reduce the emissions through less energy wastage. This device particularly reduces 24% of electricity consumption per day. At home, actual emissions are 2.23tCO 2e per annum and with IoT device, emissions are 1.69tCO2e per annum.
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At office, actual emissions are 520.38tCO 2e per annum and with IoT device, emissions are 395.48tCO2e per annum. BAU
Annual Consumption
Home
Carbon Emission/year CER by using IoT
5400kWh
2.23 tCO2e
Device) Home (with 4104kWh
1.69 tCO2e
IoT Device) Office
520.38 tCO2e
(without
(without
Device 0.54 tCO2e/yr
IoT
1260000kWh
124.9 tCO2e/yr
IoT
Device) Office (with 957600kWh
395.48 tCO2e
IoT Device) Total Emission Reduction of IoT Device
125.44 tCO2e/yr
Table 16: Emission reduction of IoT Device
3.2. Economic Analysis Economic analysis examines the flows of resources among groups of entities and their impact on society as a whole. This analysis is estimated on excel spread sheets. Data that is used for this analysis is initial capital cost of Projects units, operating and maintenance cost and total cost. This data was obtained through primary survey from the owners of the projects. The benefits of the project are the savings of households and owners of businesses and service shops that use the clean technology projects. The values of benefits in monetary terms are collected.
3.2.1. Pay Back Period Pay Back Period is the length of time required to recover the cost of investment. Pay Back Period= Cost of Project / Annual cash inflows
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Project Title
BAU
Cost of Project Annual
Cash PBP
(Rs.)
Inflow (Rs.)
6,45,000
3,19,680
2 years
6,45,000
209,664
3 years
Natural Gas Wood Zaheen Machines Natural Gas
4,000 4,000 5,350
8,208 48,960 43,092
5 months 8 weeks 1 month
– Jal Bujh Device BOLT Bike Honda 70 Biomass Cooking Natural Gas Wood Stove Agriculture Dry Petrol
80,000 69,800 69,800
94,420 12,312 73,440
8 months 5.5 years 9 months
235,000
1,137,780
2 months
__
__
__
DC
Solar
Water Electricity
Pump
Diesel generator
Bitsym Watersense
Biomass Gasifier IoT Device
__
Table 17: PBP of Projects
4. RESULTS All the seven GCIP projects were taken to conduct their detailed study in their respective areas of Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi. GCIP projects are clean source projects that cause no or less GHG emissions. The generation of clean energy through these projects replaces use of nonrenewable resources and thus leads to reduction in CO 2 emissions. The collected data is analyzed by using Tier 1 methodology of IPCC Guidelines, 2006. The Tier 1 method is fuel-based, since emissions from all sources of combustion can be estimated on the basis of the quantities of fuel consumed and average emission factors. The environmental analysis is carried out to estimate the carbon emission reductions that would have occurred in the absence of the projects activities and then the collected data was entered into Microsoft Excel for statistical analysis.
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Figure 10: Total emission reduction of all projects
The bars depict overall emission reduction levels of all the projects. The projects are compared with non-renewable resources as BAU to assess and calculate CO2 emissions by the use of nonrenewable resources in absence of project activity. Along with emission reduction the devices have other multiple pros, including compact and lower cost equipment, greater work efficiencies with advanced system technologies, and almost complete carbon capture and sequestration of the CO2 emissions. Having look at figure 10, the project 1 that is solar power water pump can reduce total carbon emissions of 16.58tCO2e per year when it is compared with the BAU: Electric water pump or pump operating on diesel engine, project 2 that is bitsym watersense device can reduce total 5.19tCO2e per annum as compared to natural gas cooking stove or wood burning activities. Similarly, project 3 of jal bujh device can reduce up to 0.003tCO 2e per year by limiting the consumption rate natural gas in geysers, and project 4 is BOLT Bike, which is the best option to replace the motor bikes that can emit up to 0.83tCO2e per year. Likewise, project 5 and 6 are somehow of the same nature as wood waste or agricultural bio-waste is used in these projects to produce gas that can ease the burden on natural gas, petrol and forests that are nation’s precious resources, thereby, working in their own domains, project 5 and 6 can reduce 7.8 and 41.09 tCO2e per year that can otherwise be emitted in the absence of these project activities. The best part of these two projects is that they use palletized biomass, which is safer in context of direct
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carbon emissions or smoke that can otherwise be produce by the consumption of raw wood. Lastly, project 7 that is an IoT device is effective in its own nature as it reduces the emissions through less energy wastage and therefore, particularly reduces 24% of electricity consumption per day. So, it can reduce up to 125.44tCO2e per year at a home and office.
Figure 11: Emission reduction of GCIP projects
All the projects are of different nature and different capacity. Hereby, Figure 11 shows the percentage of each project contributing in Carbon emission reduction in case of adoption of BAU in place of these projects.
4.1. Benefits of Projects through CDM Pakistan signed the UNFCCC in 1992. Thus it qualifies to take benefits from market based flexible mechanism under the convention for addressing the issue of climate change. One of the mechanisms is called Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Kyoto protocol of the UNFCCC is dealing with climate change mitigation. It is a milestone towards global carbon mitigation efforts. The protocol led to the establishment of carbon markets through CDM. While the CDM is a great opportunity for Pakistan, the country has not yet optimally utilized this mechanism to get financial benefits through selling Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Therefore, to get full benefits Pakistan has to initiate clean technology or renewable energy projects as GCIP Projects. This will on the one hand provide the clean energy to the community and on the other hand earn
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revenue through CDM by reducing green house gas emissions. Taking the current price of one ton of CO2e as $23, the given projects if registered with CDM will earn $4,529.85 per annum. Project Title
Total CER per year
1
DC Solar Water Pump
16.58 tCO2e/yr
2
Bitsym Watersense
5.199684 tCO2e/yr
3 4 5 6 7
Zaheen Machines – Jal Bujh Device BOLT Bike Biomass Cooking Stove Agriculture Dry Biomass Gasifier IoT Device
0.003591 tCO2e/yr 0.83 tCO2e/yr 7.801026 tCO2e/yr 41.096 tCO2e/yr 125.44 tCO2e/yr
Total Emission Reduction of all Projects
196.9503 tCO2e/yr
Table 18: Total emission reduction of all Projects
5. CONCLUSION Climate change is an emerging serious global challenge. It is important to note that some levels of GHGs are necessary to maintain temperatures needed to sustain human and animal life. The average mean temperature of the earth is 15°C, without greenhouse gases it would sit at -18ºC, a temperature which is unsuitable for overall life. Recent history points to a rapid increase in both Greenhouse gas emissions and a parallel warming of the earth on a global scale. As such, this is a global problem, which can only be tackled through dedicated global support. It seems climate change cannot be defeated through the introduction of a ‘one size fits all’ approach: each nation must understand its local context and responsibilities and create a sustainable strategy for climate change mitigation/adaptation. In context of Pakistan, the impacts are being visible in the form of natural calamities, which is affecting human lives around the world. Pakistan has been experiencing severe weather patterns, killing countless people and wiping out acres of farmland across the country. Therefore, Pakistan is ranked among the top 10 countries most at risk due to climate change. Pakistan‘s GHG emissions have nearly doubled in the past 16 years and is on 137 th number and contributing almost 0.47 percent (0.2 million metric tons) in global GHG emissions, but it is consistently Evaluation of Carbon Emission Reduction of GCIP Projects – Creating a Better Future for Pakistan
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ranked among the countries that have harmful effects of climate change, owing to its natural climatic conditions. UNIDO is managing a global programme called Global Cleantech Innovation Programme. It is involved in promoting Cleantech innovation programs for SMEs around the world in order to promote inclusive and sustainable industrial development. This competition is simultaneously been carried out in seven countries around the world, the main aim of this competition is to foster innovations in Renewable energy, Energy Efficiency, Water Efficiency and Waste to Energy. The 'Global Cleantech Innovation Programme for SMEs and Startups' for small businesses seeks to promote clean energy technology innovations through a cross-sectoral and multi-tiered approach that combines strengthening of the national technology innovation policy framework with institutional strengthening so as to build a sustainable “ecosystem” for innovative entrepreneurship in small businesses. The study comprises of seven small projects under the GCIP, UNIDO. All seven innovative projects base on new innovated devices or technologies that are claimed to be zero emission or less emission. Carbon emission reduction of these technologies is calculated as compared to other non renewable resources as BAU. Kyoto protocol of the UNFCCC is dealing with climate change mitigation. The protocol led to the establishment of carbon markets through CDM. Pakistan ratified the Kyoto Protocol in January 2005, and thus became eligible to benefit from CDM. While the CDM is a great opportunity for Pakistan, the country has not yet optimally utilized this mechanism to get financial benefits through selling Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Therefore, to get full benefits Pakistan has to initiate clean technology or renewable energy projects as GCIP Projects. This will on the one hand provide the needed energy to the community and on the other hand earn revenue through CDM by reducing green house gas emissions. Taking the current price of one ton of CO2e as $23, the given projects if registered with CDM will earn $4,529.85 per annum.
6. Recommendations/ Policy Implications
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Policy makers need to understand and acknowledge the importance of COP 21, as well as the fact that sustainable, holistic, inclusive and climate resilient development is the only way forward to achieving long-term economic growth and social development objectives. The government should design a proper institutional arrangement to tackle the issues GHG emissions and to market the clean technologies with UNIDO. To improve the efficiency and sustainability of the GCIP projects, awareness workshops should be arranged for the community members, so that they can use the clean technology in a sustainable manner by avoiding misuse and exploitation of natural resources as well as their impacts on environment.
Bibliography Akhtar, M. (2016, 5 14). Climate change: a serious issue for Pakistan. Daily Times . http://www.lead.org.pk/cc/basicguide_climate_change.html Husain, T. (2015, 12 14). Pakistan bears the worst of climate change effects. The Express Tribune . Khan, M. A. (2011). National Economic, Environment & Development Study. Muhammad Umar, A. H. (2015). Micro Hydro Power: A Source of Sustainable Energy in Rural Communities: Economic and Environmental Perspective. PIDE , pp. 3-34. Mustafa, Z. (2015). Climate Change and its Impact with Special Focus in Pakistan. Symposium on “Changing Environmental Pattern and its impact with Special Focus on Pakistan” , pp. 100117. Nazar, S. (2016, 3 4). Pakistan’s Big Threat Isn’t Terrorism—It’s Climate Change. (T. S. Channel, Interviewer) Evaluation of Carbon Emission Reduction of GCIP Projects – Creating a Better Future for Pakistan
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Shabbir, A. H. (2016, 3 24). CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS REALITIES FOR PAKISTAN. Pak Agri Outlook . Umar, M., Hussain, A. (2015). Micro Hydro Power: A Source of Sustainable Energy in Rural Communities: Economic and Environmental Perspective. PIDE , pp. 3-34.
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GLOSSARY BAU: BAU is the acronym for 'Business As Usual'.Business As Usual is the view of an organisation, business unit, work team or team member that happens every day in the normal way. BAU is the work that is understood by teams to be carried out as part of their standard daily work practice. Biomass: Biomass is biological material derived from living, or recently living organisms. In the context of biomass for energy this is often used to mean plant based material, but biomass can equally apply to both animal and vegetable derived material. CDM: The Clean
Development
Mechanism (CDM)
is
one
of
the
Flexible Mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2007) that provides for emissions reduction projects which generate Certified Emission Reduction units (CERs) which may be traded in emissions trading schemes. Certified Emission Reduction: are a type of emissions unit (or carbon credits) issued by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Executive Board for emission reductions achieved by CDM projects and verified by a DOE (Designated Operational Entity) under the rules of the Kyoto Protocol. Climate Change: A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Coal: A natural dark brown to black graphite like material used as a fuel, formed from fossilized plants and consisting of amorphous carbon with various organic and some inorganic compounds. Coal is a mineral, a black rock that can be extracted from the earth and burned for fuel. Most of the electricity that is produced in the world is powered by the burning of coal. COP 21: France hosted the 21st session of the Conference of Parties (COP21) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris. The UNFCCC was formed as a response to the increasingly negative impacts of climate change and the Conference of the Parties (COP) are held every year to discuss and agree upon approaches to deal with it. Diesel: Diesel oil includes heavy gas oils. Diesel oil distils between 180ºC and 380ºC. Several grades are available depending on uses: diesel oil for diesel compression ignition (cars, trucks, marine, etc.), light heating oil for industrial and commercial uses.
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Electricity: A type of energy fueled by the transfer of electrons from positive and negative points within a conductor. Electricity is widely used for providing power to buildings, electric devices, and even some automobiles. Emissions: The production and discharge of something, especially gas or radiation. Greenhouse Gas: A greenhouse gas (sometimes abbreviated GHG) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. Hydropower: Hydropower or water power is power derived from the energy of falling water or fast running water, which may be harnessed for useful purposes. INDC: a term used under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that all countries that signed the UNFCCC were asked to publish in the lead up to the 2015. INDCs are the primary means for governments to communicate internationally the steps they will take to address climate change in their own countries. INDCs reflect each country's ambition for reducing emissions, taking into account its domestic circumstances and capabilities. Landfill Gas: Landfill gas is derived from the anaerobic fermentation of biomass and solid wastes in landfills and combusted to produce heat and/or power. Natural Gas: A mixture of hydrocarbon gases that occurs naturally beneath the Earth's surface, often with or near petroleum deposits. Natural gas contains mostly of methane but also has varying amounts of ethane, propane, butane, and nitrogen. It is used as a fuel and in making organic compounds. Non-renewable Resources: A nonrenewable resource is a resource of economic value that cannot be readily replaced by natural means on a level equal to its consumption. Most fossil fuels, such as oil, natural gas and coal are considered nonrenewable resources in that their use is not sustainable because their formation takes billions of years. Nuclear Energy: Nuclear energy is the energy in the nucleus of an atom. Nuclear energy can be used to produce electricity. Actually, nuclear power plants can only use nuclear fission to produce electricity. Pay Back Period: The payback period is the length of time required to recover the cost of an investment. The payback period of a given investment or project is an important determinant of whether to undertake the position or project, as longer pay back periods are typically not desirable for investment positions. Petrol (Motor Gasoline): This is light hydrocarbon oil for use in internal combustion engines such as motor vehicles, excluding aircraft. Motor gasoline is distilled between 35ºC and 215ºC and is used as a fuel for land based spark ignition engines. Motor
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gasoline may include additives, oxygenates and octane enhancers, including lead compounds such as TEL (Tetraethyl lead) and TML (Tetramethyl lead). Renewable Energy: Renewable energy is generally defined as energy that
is
collected from resources which are naturally replenished on a human timescale, such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves, and geothermal heat. UNFCCC: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992, then entered into force on 21 March 1994. Wood/ wood waste: Wood and wood waste combusted directly for energy. This category also includes wood for charcoal production but not the actual production of charcoal (this would be double counting since charcoal is a secondary product).
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ANNEXURE – (A)
EPA Emission Factors for Greenhouse Gas Inventory Last Modified: 4 April 2014 Typically greenhouse gas emissions are reported in units of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2e). Gases are converted to CO2e by multiplying by their global warming potential (GWP).
Fuel Type Diesel Fuel Landfill Gas Motor Gasoline (Petrol) Natural Gas Wood or wood residuals Electricity
kgCO2e 10.21 Gallon 0.025254 Scf 8.78 Gallon 0.05444 Scf 1640 short ton National Grid Emission Factor 0.413 kWh
Unit
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