Tourist carrying capacity of Santana cave (PETAR-SP, Brazil)

Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 67–75

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Tourist carrying capacity of Santana cave (PETAR-SP, Brazil): A new method based on a critical atmospheric parameter Heros Augusto Santos Lobo ⁎ Department of Geography, Tourism and Humanities, Federal University of São Carlos (DGTH/UFSCar), Brazil

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 24 September 2014 Received in revised form 28 May 2015 Accepted 11 July 2015 Available online xxxx Keywords: Carrying capacity Show cave Sustainable tourism Cave microclimate Ecotourism

a b s t r a c t This article presents a method used to identify thresholds to tourist carrying capacity of Santana cave (CCSC), in Brazil, and their results. The method comprised three steps: the delimitation of the tourist path; the projection of tourist scenarios; and the verification of the scenarios based on a critical atmospheric parameter: the air temperature. The impacts from visitation were up to 1.1 °C and stabilized in 264.1 min, in average. The results were related to the recovery of the critical factor and were compared to the projected scenarios, which were considered as acceptable. Thus, the suggested CCSC was based in groups of 24 visitors with an entrance interval of 30 min in working days and 18 visitors within 20 min in weekends and holidays. The conclusion reinforces the need to understand the tourist carrying capacity as a dynamic tool, not just to limit, but also to improve the tourist visitation. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Carrying capacity is a conceptual and practical way for tourist planning and management, which aims to identify the acceptable level of intensity of the anthropogenic changes caused by the tourists in one specific area, although its application also indicates the ideal conditions of tourist use (Cifuentes-Arias, 1992; Mexa & Coccossis, 2004; Stankey, Cole, Lucas, Petersen, & Frissell, 1985). In modern times, carrying capacity is used as a dynamic technique. The results of its application are subjected to variations due to the circumstances that are involved in the analysis of the variables that were considered, as well as due to the different levels of intensity and frequency of its use and to the fragility and vulnerability of the environment (Mexa & Coccossis, 2004; Šebela & Turk, 2014a).

Carrying capacity is currently used to decide which is the limit to visitation in a determined period of time inside caves (Cigna & Forti, 2013; Hoyos, Soler, Cañavera, Sánchez-Moral, & Sanz-Rubio, 1998), based on the principle of not to cause any irreversible change in the dynamics of the natural environment (Cigna & Burri, 2000; Gillieson, 1996).

Therefore, the resulting carrying capacity (stricto sensu) depends on the inputs of visitors and the responses (impacts) on selected environmental variables, also considering the natural variation of the environment (Fernández-Cortés, Calaforra, & Sánchez-Martos, 2006a) and its seasonal cycles (Lario & Soler, 2010; Šebela & Turk, 2014b). The ⁎ Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Campus Sorocaba, Departamento de Geografia, Turismo e Humanidades, Rodovia João Leme dos Santos (SP 264), Km 110, Bairro Itinga, CEP 18052-780 Sorocaba, SP, Brazil.

E-mail address: heroslobo@ufscar.br.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2015.07.001 2211-9736/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

environment does not have a default response to the inputs of visitors.

The impacts may vary, taking into account the different levels of exchange of mass and energy in the different environments of show caves (Calaforra, Fernández-Cortés, Sánchez-Martos, Gisbert, & Pulido-Bosch, 2003; De Freitas, 2010; Lobo, Perinotto, & Boggiani, 2015).

There also is a degree of tolerance to be observed on the impacts, provided that they don't definitely change the general state of conservation of the cave's natural system and its dynamics (Lobo et al., 2013).

Due to this tolerance, the carrying capacity principle should also allow a flexible tourist use of a cave, rather than just limit the visitation rate (Lobo et al., 2013; Navarro Jurado et al., 2012). To establish definitive numbers of visitors is a utopia because in most of the cases the environment does not provide direct and linear responses to the impacts to which it is subjected (De Freitas, 2010; Mexa & Coccossis, 2004).

There are nearly 1500 most notorious show caves opened to the public worldwide (Duckeck, 2015). In some caves, like Postojna (Slovenia), Mammoth (United States), Nerja (Spain) and Jenolan (Australia), the annual number of visitors reaches 500,000.

By mid-1980, show caves were designed and managed in a massive and hyper-structured way, with a low control of the environmental impacts (Cigna & Burri, 2000; Gillieson, 2011). After the 1990s, a new perspective of tourism emerged with a focus on a sustainable use of caves.

In practical terms, this enhanced sustainable view was implemented through initiatives to minimize the visitation impacts, to improve the construction techniques of the inside and outside infrastructures, to use new inert materials and energy saving light systems and to increase environmentally educational practices (Cigna & Forti, 2013; De Freitas, 2010; Gillieson, 2011). In this context, the annual total number of tourists has decreased in some important show caves, as a result of the

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H.A.S. Lobo / Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 67–75

sustainable perspective of tourism without mass consumption, and also reflecting the variations on the tourist profile and the economic crisis around the world (Spate & Spate, 2013).

In Brazil, almost 300 caves have a formal tourist use in the country.

The most visited ones, Lago Azul and Maquiné, receive around 60,000 tourists per year. Most of these caves are located in Public Natural Protected Areas (PNPAs), where tourism is managed in a very restrictive way. In fact, in those show caves located in PNPAs, carrying capacity is understood as a way to limit the visitors due to structural restrictions, exactly as Cifuentes-Arias (1992) pointed out in the management of trails in Costa Rica.

The present case study refers to a tourist attraction in a PNPA, the Santana cave, which is one of the most famous Brazilian show caves, receiving up to 30,000 visitors per year. The study was carried out in the cave to establish the parameters to its carrying capacity, also complying with the obligations imposed by Brazilian conservation policies. An environmental monitoring survey was developed focusing on the air temperature, relative humidity, CO2 and atmospheric pressure, during two years, with some periods of discontinuity. The objective of the research was to develop and apply a method to establish referential threshold values to the carrying capacity of the Santana cave, according to its environmental characteristics, and also to contribute with the proper use of this important Brazilian geosite.

studies that are called “Plan of Speleological Management”. The determination of the tourist carrying capacity is one of such requirements.

The current limit of visits is 117 a day, as determined by Lobo (2008) in a study based on the method created by Cifuentes-Arias (1992) for calculating the carrying capacity on trails. Using this method to prepare the provisional authorization for tourist use of Santana cave, Lobo (2008) pointed out some problems that led to a review of the previously established numbers. The previous studies did not consider the relationships of cause and effect of the critical environmental factors with tourist visitations. Although the Plan of Speleological Management has not yet been implemented, a new increased provisional limit (based on PTCC method — Lobo et al., 2013) has been established for 297 visits a day, after the review.

3. Proposed methods and steps The proposed and tested method to establish the carrying capacity of Santana cave (CCSC) is divided into three steps. Those steps will be detailed in the following subsections, and were based on previous studies carried out in the cave (Lobo, 2008; Lobo et al., 2015; Scaleante, 2003), and also on general recommendations for cave management (Cigna, 2011; Gillieson, 1996, 2011; Lobo et al., 2013).

2. Study area The Santana cave is located in the State Tourist Park of Upper Ribeira (PETAR), State of São Paulo (Fig. 1). Ecotourism is practiced there, and its main features are: a) direct contact with the environment, without the interference of any big infrastructure; b) no illumination fixtures, the visitation occurs under flashlights; and c) relatively small groups of visitors, due to the restrictive cave passages and halls, accompanied by local guides. This cave is approximately 9 km long, currently mapped, and only 480 m are opened to visitation, in a semi circular route — one single place serves as the entrance and the exit of the cave (Fig. 1).

The last set of reasons for choosing the Santana cave was constrained by legal issues. Public policies, established by federal and state agencies that rule the conservation of caves in Brazil, require previous technical

3.1. Preliminary delimitation of the tourist path and analysis of the tourist attractions The CCSC depends on the availability of space, considering the limitation of the tourist path and its interpretative stops, in strategic points, to allow the visitors to observe the cave (cf. Boggiani et al., 2007; Cigna, 2011). The traditional tourist path was established according to the attractions of the cave as well as to the proper conditions to reach them.

The previous tourist path was not circular, but there were favorable conditions for that, and it was changed. The interpretative stops were determined according to the traditional tourist use of the cave and were fundamental to determine the bottlenecks to visitation.

Fig. 1. Santana cave location and details of the passages for tourist visitation and its surroundings.

Map source: IGc (1991); GPME (2009).

H.A.S. Lobo / Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 67–75

3.2. Designing the ideal tourist scenario

3.3. Obtaining a time limit based on environmental critical factors as a threshold for CCSC

The projection of the tourist scenario was the starting point to obtaining thresholds to CCSC. The initial premise was to design the ideal conditions of the use of the Santana cave, considering the aspects of the management, the product quality, the experience of the visitors and their safety, as in Lobo et al. (2013). The tourist scenario is, therefore, a working hypothesis, to be tested in field experiments to check its operation and the responses of the environment to the human pressure.

The second step was not only to established the number of people that could use a tourist attraction, either as group or in a period of time, as in previous studies such as Calaforra et al. (2003) and Fernández-Cortés, Calaforra, Sánchez-Martos, and Gisbert (2006b). Considering the differences in the yearnings of different tourist stakeholders (Lobo et al., 2013; Navarro Jurado et al., 2012; Saarinen, 2006), the focus was to establish how many persons the managers and tourist stakeholders wanted in the tourist attraction and to check if it was feasible. To reach this goal, it was necessary to answer two questions: How long the tourist attraction should be opened for visitation by day? What should be the average duration of each visitation tour?

The State Park, where the cave is located, restricts the visitation of the cave to its regular working hours. This rule was taken into account when the visitation schedule was designed. Therefore, the last group of visitors should get in the cave with a time lapse that should be enough to complete the route before the park closing hours, which is represented by Eq. (1). atv ¼ ttv−rd

ð1Þ

where atv is the available time for visitation, ttv is the total time for visitation (difference between opening and closing hours) and rd is the route duration: the time spent to walk the visitation route. Time units were calculated in minutes.

Once the atv was obtained, it was possible to assess the time lapse between groups (tbg) to enter into the tourist route. The estimated tbg was based on the availability of tour guides, as well as on the financial sustainability of the tourist attraction and the visitation goals. Afterwards, the number of groups of visitors per day (ng) to get into the tourist route was calculated, based on Eq. (2): ng ¼

atv tbg

ð2Þ

where ng is the number of groups that is supposed to daily visit the cave and tbg is the lapse of time between groups to enter into the cave's tourist route, stated in minutes.

The initial hypothesis of the projected visitation scenario was complemented with the size of visitors' groups (sg). This number was established based on previous studies (Scaleante et al., 2009), which tested different tour guides and groups of various sizes that led to a daily limit of visitation as projected by Eq. (3): dlv ¼ ng sg

69

ð3Þ

where dlv is the daily limit of visitation, as a provisional number for pilot tests, and sg is the maximum size of groups of visitors.

The results of this second step provided: a) the duration of the visitation; b) the time available for visitation; c) the time lapse between groups to enter into the cave; d) the number of tourist groups that are supposed to visit the cave per day; e) the maximum size of the visitors' groups; and f) the daily limit of visitation tours. These six components make up the visitation scenario: the initial hypothesis of tourist management.

Previous environmental studies in Santana cave identified some environmental critical factors regarding tourist use, and the main results were published by Lobo et al. (2015). The results from studies in biology, geology, geomorphology and speleology contributed to the delimitation of the tourist path, the cave zoning – a requirement of Brazilian environmental laws (cf. CONAMA — Conselho Nacional do Meio Ambiente, 2004) – and even to the provisional tourist carrying capacity of the cave, based on the method of Lobo et al. (2013). Cave atmosphere studies have also contributed, however with a difference: air temperature, relative humidity and CO2 concentration can respond to the presence of visitors in confined places (Calaforra et al., 2003; Cigna, 2002; Fernández-Cortés et al., 2006b).

Therefore, the responses were registered and analyzed based on the inputs from the pilot tests. These studies revealed the critical seasonal factors to avoid damages to the environment, which may prove to be naturally irreversible, as suggested by Calaforra et al. (2003). This premise of cave management and tourist carrying capacity is being used in Slovenian show caves (Šebela & Turk, 2014b), as well as in other countries, under the perspective of sustainable use of nature's attractions. Other examples can be seen in Australia (Gillieson, 2011) and in the report of Land, Veni, and Joop (2013), highlighting the importance of establishing and implementing scientific protocols of carrying capacity for caves in the National Parks of the United States of America.

The analyses of the data were based on two principles. The first was the selection of the main bottleneck of the cave environment that presented the most critical responses from the atmospheric parameters. This principle was taken into consideration to avoid the overlaying of parameters, that was observed in traditional methods to estimate tourist carrying capacity (e.g. Cifuentes-Arias, 1992), which mask the results by superimposing different problems. Only the variables with a higher increase and in a single spatial bottleneck of the cave were considered.

The second principle was the verification of the intervals between visits, as defined in the projected scenarios, in relation with the dynamics of the cave atmosphere. This verification aimed to determine whether the impacts on selected critical factors could be reverted. In case they could not, that means that some of the temporal variables of the initial scenario should be modified. A similar strategy has been used in cave management in other countries. In New Zealand, Waitomo Glowworm cave microclimate data are being used as a fundamental element to the conservation of the famous cave fauna, which is its main attraction. Microclimate monitoring protocols were implemented in 1983, and are providing the managers relevant information about tourism and environment patterns, helping the protection of the fauna of the cave and the cave itself (De Freitas, 2010). In the giant Geode of Pulpí, Spain, research data show that a small amount of visitors was enough to increase the air temperature and the CO2 concentration, and the stabilization would require more than 24 h (Fernández-Cortés et al., 2006b). Therefore, the authors recommended not opening the Geode for tourism.

The relation among time variables and impacts was obtained by controlling three main factors: 1) the pause time (pt), which is the duration of the stay in an interpretative stop, which is a bottleneck and impacts a main atmospheric factor, as identified in the pilot test visits; 2) the total recovery time (trt), which is required after the impact of the visitation, as identified in the pilot tests, for a specified atmospheric parameter; and 3) the maximum possible time to the atmosphere to recover (mrt), which is obtained from the time the visitation is closed to the opening hours the following day. These time factors were related between themselves and resulted in Eq. (4):

mt ¼

pt mrt trt

ð4Þ

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H.A.S. Lobo / Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 67–75

Fig. 2. Proposal for alteration in the traditional visitation circuit inside the Santana cave, in the Cavalo hall (1) and the Cristo hall (2).

Map source: GPME (2009).

where: mt = maximum time of stay accepted for a particular area inside a cave, in minutes; pt = pause time; the duration of the stay that generated the impact as identified in the pilot test visits, in minutes; mrt = maximum possible time to atmosphere recovery, which is attained from the time the visiting is closed to the opening hours the following day, in minutes; and; trt = total recovery time required, after an impact of visitation is identified in the pilot tests, for a selected atmospheric parameter, in minutes.

The result of this analysis was the maximum time of stay (mt) accepted for a particular area inside a cave, to avoid cumulative impacts of visitation on critical atmospheric parameters. The CCSC was calculated by testing the designed visitation scenario, comparing the projected interval of entrance between the groups (tbg) with the pause time (pt) and the maximum time of stay (mt) in a specific interpretative stop in the cave. The goal was to obtain a pt suitable to the interpretative and contemplative needs of each interpretative stop, limited by the mt and related to the tbg. If tbg b pt, the possible consequences could be: a) increase the probability of generating cumulative impacts on the atmosphere of the cave, as related by Song, Wei, and Liang (2000) in Baiyun cave, China, with hundreds of thousands of visitors per year and by Fernández-Cortés et al. (2006b) in the Geode of Pulpí, Spain, in a test with less than five visitors; and b) occasional encounters between groups of visitors inside the cave, causing discomfort, poor quality of visitation and increasing risks to the visitors and to the environment. The mentioned consequences show that the interval of entrance must be adjusted.

Consequently, due to the critical factor that was selected, it was understood that tbg ≥ pt, which means that the projected scenario is acceptable from the point of view of the capacity of recovery of the underground atmosphere. It is possible to accept that the projected scenario are the thresholds to the CCSC, should the cumulative impacts not to occur on the critical factors that are being studied, so that the

variations do not exceed the limited time for the environment to recover (trt). Nevertheless, there is no final definition of a “magic number” (cf. McCool & Lime, 2001; Mexa & Coccossis, 2004) of tourist carrying capacity, but the confirmation of the yearnings previously surveyed.

4. Results and discussion The method, hereto discussed, was applied using the data from the Santana cave, published in Lobo et al. (2015). At first, a partial correction of the traditional tourist route was proposed, once it presented two physical bottlenecks in the tourist path: Cavalo hall and Cristo hall. A modification in the tourist path was proposed (Fig. 2), taking into consideration that there are other possibilities to a circular route around those places. The purpose for this suggestion is to improve the visitation flow inside the Santana cave, mainly in the Cristo hall, which presented an atmospheric response to the visitation during the research.

Calculations were also made regarding the areas of possible bottlenecks at all the interpretative stops in halls along the tourist route: Bolo de Noiva (37 m2), Fafá (37 m2); Bacon (21 m2); Cristo (27 m2) and Encontro (22.5 m2). Among the aforementioned halls, the Bacon was considered as a critical point concerning space availability. Those calculations were used to determine the maximum number of people per group, including the space used by each person. Studies about the carrying capacity in trails indicate that each individual occupies 1 linear meter, whereas other studies on beaches (e.g. Ruschmann, Paolucci, & Maciel, 2008) mention values between 5 m2 and 20 m2 to establish an area for the beachgoers to feel comfortable.

Furthermore, field experiments that were performed, in Santana Cave, during the research period and showed that an area of 0.85 m2 (0.92 m × 0.92 m, in average) is enough to a visitor to stand up comfortably. This measurement was taken as a preliminary space parameter for the purpose of the present research.

Based on the physical bottleneck (Bacon hall) and on the average space occupied for one person, it was possible to identify the maximum appropriate number of people for this hall as 24.7 at a time (for practical purposes rounded to 24), and this was the number used as the maximum limit in the further calculations, after the field tests.

336 visitors 378 visitors 18 visitors 14 groups

24 visitors

Daily limit of visitors — working days (dlvwd) Size of groups — weekends and holidays (sgwh)

Following those calculations, the visitation scenario for the Santana cave was designed. For this purpose, field tests were conducted with real groups of tourists with different numbers of people, up to 30 visitors per group, because the objective was to study the different environmental responses according to the kind of stimuli that were applied.

The visitation circuit was opened to visitation for the total time (ttv) of 9 h (540 min) a day. Based on the data collected during the field study, it takes an average of 1 h and 53 min, or 113 min to walk the visitation circuit (rd). Once the data were collected the atv was firstly calculated: atv ¼ ttv – rd atv ¼ 540 – 113 atv ¼ 427 min: To test the method, two models of visitation groups were used, accordingly to the regular visitation pattern of the cave: a) groups with 18 visitors during the weekends and holidays (16 tourists and 2 local guides), to accomplish with the demand for leisure tourism; and b) groups with 24 visitors during working days (21 visitors and 3 local guides) to suit the visitation of school groups. Scaleante et al. (2009) tested these models, and the tbg was defined in 20 min in weekends and holidays and 30 min in working days. The difference was justified considering that during the weekends/holidays, several small groups arrived separately at Santana cave, and a small interval, between the groups, proved to better accommodate this situation. During the working days, the demand of school groups happens in a more organized way, and they want to stay longer inside the cave. From these data it was possible to obtain the ng of the Santana cave: ng ¼

atv : tbg

21 groups

427 20 ¼ 21:35; or 21 groups; in practical terms:

ng wh ¼ ng wh

30 min

And the ng for working days (ngwd) being: 427 30 ¼ 14:23; or 14 groups; in practical terms:

ng wd ¼ ng wd

20 min

To complete the projected scenario, the daily limit of visitation was calculated, starting with the dlvwh, for weekends and holidays: dlvwh ¼ ng wh sgwh dlvwh ¼ 21 18 dlvwh ¼ 378 visitors=day:

113 min 540 min

427 min

And finally, the daily limit of visitors for working days (dlvwd):

Route duration (rd)

Available time of visitation (atv)

71

The ng for the weekends and holidays (ngwh) being:

Total time of visitation (ttv)

Table 1 Projected visitation scenario of Santana cave.

Time between groups — weekends and holidays (tbgwh)

Time between groups — working days (tbgwd)

Number of groups — weekends and holidays (ngwh)

Number of groups — working days (ngwd)

Size of groups — working days (sgwd)

Daily limit of visitors — weekends and holidays (dlvwh)

H.A.S. Lobo / Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 67–75

dlvwd ¼ ng wd sgwd dlvwd ¼ 14 24 dlvwd ¼ 336 visitors=day: These preliminary calculations determined the projected visitation scenario to Santana cave, which is summarized in Table 1.

The projected scenario of Table 1 was used in pilot tests simultaneously with an atmospheric monitoring. Considering the scope of this article, just the summary of all variables is herein presented, focusing in the average of the results and the identified impact from visitors (Table 2).

The data presented in Table 2 show that the relative humidity and the air pressure were not impacted by the visitation. In the case of the relative humidity, the presence of a stream in the cave, the active process of percolation and the localization of the cave in a humid forest region (Mata Atlântica, the Atlantic Rainforest), together with the amount

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Table 2 Summary of the results of the atmospheric monitoring.

Variable and monitoring station

Descriptive statistics

Air temperature (Cristo hall) CO2 (Cristo hall) Relative humidity (Cristo hall) Air pressure (Bacon hall)

Confirmed human impacts

Min.

Avg.

Max.

18.9 °C 1035 ppm 99.9% 973.6 hPa

19.3 °C 1091.7 ppm 99.9% 981.7 hPa

20.3 °C 1294 ppm 99.9% 986 hPa

of heat released by human body (82 W to 160 W, in accordance with Villar et al., 1984) were not enough to “dry” the air. Previous studies in Santana cave (Scaleante, 2003) and in Penhasco cave, Brazil (Lobo & Zago, 2010), showed that the relative humidity is affected by the human presence when the visitors are using fire as a light source, for example, from carbide lamps. Studies about the relationship of the human presence, by itself, and its impacts on the air pressure were not found.

The analysis of the data in Table 2 shows that the CO2 rates were impacted by the human presence, as observed in other studies related to show cave management (e.g. Liñán, Vadillo, & Carrasco, 2008). However, considering the principle of stabilization of the variable after the impact, in Santana cave the CO2 was not considered the critical atmospheric factor to the cave management. The impact from visitation was small when the values were compared to the natural ones. The data related to the post-visitation reading showed a variation similar to the natural one and the levels of CO2 returned to their previous standard values in less than 120 min.

Table 2 also presents the air temperature. This variable is considered by the literature as one of the key factors in show cave management (Cigna, 2011) and was mentioned in several studies of tourist carrying capacity and management of caves (e.g. Calaforra et al., 2003; Gillieson, 2011; Šebela & Turk, 2014a,b). Inside Santana cave, the impacts on the air temperature were detected in several halls, especially in Cristo hall, because the time required for the stabilization was longer than in other halls. To support the comprehension about the natural and human induced variations, Fig. 3 presents the results of an annual series of monitoring in two internal stations together with another station in the entrance of the cave.

The analysis of the data presented in Fig. 3 demonstrated that the variations on Cristo hall are not related to the outside variations. The Entrance Station was located in the edge of the outer side of the cave and its variations were processed in a 24-hour cycle. Correlation tests between those series were made by Lobo et al. (2015). The series of the Entrance and Fafá stations had a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.784, which was considered significant. However, the coefficients between Entrance and Cristo (0.353) and Fafá and Cristo (0.235) stations were considered weak, and they revealed a different pattern of variation

30

Entrance Fafá hall

Temp. (°C)

25

Cristo hall

20

15

10

Mar 27, 2010

Feb 25, 2010

Jan 26, 2010

Dec 27, 2009

Nov 27, 2009

Oct 28, 2009

Sep 28, 2009

Aug 29, 2009

Jul 30, 2009

Jun 30, 2009

May 31, 2009

May 1, 2009

Apr 1, 2009

5

Fig. 3. Annual results of the air temperature monitoring on three selected stations in Santana cave.

Source of data: Lobo et al. (2015).

+1.1 °C +160 ppm – –

of the temperature of the air in Cristo hall. Nevertheless, the coefficient between Cristo and the visitation reached 0.721, showing more significance, which can be seen on Fig. 4.

The data series about the number of visitors were collected between October 4 to December 12, 2009 (Fig. 4; Table 3) and July 1 to September 11, 2010 (Table 3). As demonstrated in Fig. 4, some of the highest temperature values are not related to the days with more visitors (e.g.

December 2: 20.2 °C with 14 visitors) and the days with the highest number of visitors are not related to the hottest days in Cristo hall (e.g. November 20: 19.5 °C with 210 visitors). Lobo et al. (2015) called attention to the low linearity between temperature increase and the number of visitors. However, a strong relation between the air temperature and the time of permanence in Cristo hall was observed.

The analysis led to the interpretation of the results showing relations between: the duration of the stay that generated the impact — the pause time (pt); the total recovery time required (trt) after an impact of from visitation (as identified in the pilot tests); and the maximum possible time to the atmosphere recovery (mrt). A synthesis of the data is herein showed (Table 3), so that the trt could be identified as a result of the thermal impacts generated in the Cristo hall.

According to Table 3, the longest time required for stabilization was 720 min, recorded on October 17, 2009. The higher values are associated to weekends and holidays. The average of trt was 264.1 min. The value of the maximum time of stay (mt) was defined based on the descriptive analysis of the data by a histogram (Fig. 5).

Taking into consideration that the trt was below 300 min in most of the cases (77.27%), as well as the average of the series was 264.1 min, values as high as 600 min up to 720 min were understood as exceptions to the usual pattern of the atmospheric response to the permanence of the visitors inside the cave. These values are important to confirm the understanding of the low linearity in the responses from the environment to the atmospheric impacts (Lobo et al., 2015). Such responses are a warning to the tourist capacity studies aiming to avoid cumulative impacts and potential damages to the cave environment (Domínguez-Villar, Fairchild, Carrasco, Pedraza, & Baker, 2010; Fernández-Cortés et al., 2006b). A proper research should not be based on a single measurement because an environmental response can be exacerbated or underestimated, but may not necessarily represent a pattern.

In the present study, the average and the maximum values for the trt were use, and the limit of time for the atmosphere to recover (tar) was based on the interval between the time that the cave is closed for visitation (17:00 h) and the opening hour (09:00 h) the next day, with a 16 hour (960 min) lapse. The pause time (pt) was based in the field research of Scaleante et al. (2009), which measured the time of permanence of tourist groups, for schools visits and leisure purposes, in all the interpretative stops of the Santana cave. In the Cristo hall, the average of pt was 15 min. Once these data were available, it was possible to calculate the maximum time of stay (mt) for the Cristo hall based on the air temperature as a critical factor. Firstly, the calculation of mt was based on the average of trt: pt mrt trt avg ð15 960Þ mt ¼ 264:1 mt avg ¼ 54:5 min: mt ¼

H.A.S. Lobo / Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 67–75

73

250

20.4 Visitors/day

Visitors/day

20.2

Cristo (Temp. max.)

200 175

20

150

19.8

125 100

19.6

75

19.4

Temp. (°C)

225

50 19.2

25 0 Dec 9

Dec 3

Nov 27

Nov 21

Nov 15

Nov 9

Nov 3

Oct 28

Oct 22

Oct 16

Oct 10

Oct 4

19

2009 Fig. 4. Daily comparison between the number of visitors and the maximum temperature in Cristo hall (Oct. 4–Dec. 12).

Afterwards, the calculation of mt was based on the maximum value of trt: pt mrt trt max ð15 960Þ mt ¼ 720 mt max ¼ 20 min:

mt ¼

The results of mt were compared to the projected tourist scenario on Table 1. As to the mtavg, the result of 54.5 min was higher than both projected time between groups (tbg) to enter the cave (20 min on weekends and holidays and 30 min on working days) and the pause time (15 min). Therefore, the pause time in this spot of the cave could be increased, until the limit of the projected tbgs. On the other hand, if the mtmax was considered, the tbgwd would be above its limit, that is 20 min (mtmax) versus 30 min (tbgwd). However, the value of trtmax of 720 min was not recorded in working days, but in a weekend. Thus,

the possibility of changing tbg in working days for school groups was not adequate, considering that the higher values of trt were all recorded in weekends and holidays.

Therefore, the previous projected scenarios could be accepted as the CCSC, as follows: • Entry interval of 20 min in the weekends and holidays which allows a maximum of 21 groups of 18 visitors each, with a total of 378 visitors a day; • Entry interval of 30 min during the workdays which allows a maximum of 14 groups of 24 visitors each, with a total of 336 visitors a day.

Such results grant more objectivity for the tourist management of the Santana cave, and are more consistent when compared to the previously proposed tourist carrying capacity. Based on the method developed by Cifuentes-Arias (1992) for trails, Sgarbi (2003) and Lobo (2008) carried out some studies and obtained a result of 430 visitors a

Table 3 Analysis of the total time required for the stabilization of the air temperature when a more significant thermal increase occurred — Cristo hall.

Date

Type of visitation (weekend/holiday = wh; working day = wd)

Temp. (°C) pre-visitation (9:00 h)

Thermal peak (°C)

Peak hour

Time of stabilization

Total recovery time (trt) required (min)

Oct. 10 2009 Oct. 11 2009 Oct. 17 2009 Oct. 22 2009 Oct. 23 2009 Oct. 24 2009 Oct. 28 2009 Nov. 01 2009 Nov. 07 2009 Nov. 14 2009 Dec. 02 2009 Jul. 04 2010 Jul. 09 2010 Jul. 10 2010 Jul. 13 2010 Jul. 17 2010 Jul. 20 2010 Aug. 14 2010 Aug. 19 2010 Sep. 05 2010 Sep. 06 2010 Sep. 09 2010

wh wh wh wd wd wh wd wh wh wh wd wh wh wh wd wh wd wh wd wh wh wd

19.0 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.6 20.0 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0

19.5 19.6 19.9 19.6 19.7 19.9 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.6 20.2 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.1 20.5 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.7

15:00 h 13:30 h 14:30 h 14:30 h 10:30 h 11:30 h 11:30 h 13:30 h 15:00 h 11:00 h 16:00 h 15:00 h 11:40 h 13:20 h 11:00 h 11:20 h 11:00 h 16:20 h 15:00 h 13:00 h 14:20 h 15:40 h

21:30 h 17:30 h 2:30 h 15:30 h 16:30 h 13:00 h 15:00 h 16:00 h 17:00 h 14:30 h 19:00 h 17:20 h 16:40 h 17:40 h 15:40 h 19:20 h 13:00 h 19:20 h 19:00 h 0:40 h 19:20 h 18:00 h

390 240 720 60 360 90 210 150 120 210 180 260 300 260 280 1801 120 180 360 700 300 140

1 In July 17 for the stabilization time was not accounted according to the highest peak but to a secondary peak that occurred further on.

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needs of the tourist stakeholders and managers. This new method was tested in field, to check if they are feasible.

5. Conclusions

Fig. 5. Analysis of the trt to the air temperature to return to the previous standards in the days when a greater thermal rise occurred — Cristo hall.

day (Sgarbi, 2003) and 117 visitors a day (Lobo, 2008). Afterwards, the use of the method of the preliminary tourist carrying capacity (Lobo et al., 2013) resulted in a new daily limitation of 297 visitors. This limitation was established in the management plan for the cave (Apr 2010), although it has not yet (as of Oct 2014) been implemented.

Considering the daily limits suggested in this article, Santana cave could receive up to 109,200 visitors per year, considering that on Mondays the State Park is closed. This total is almost twice the number of visitors in the most visited Brazilian' show caves and close to four times of the real influx of visitors to Santana cave in the last five years. The daily limits which can be understood as restrictive are, in fact, much greater than the records show. Some other facts have to be considered in this analysis: a) the kind of tourism practiced in Santana cave, which is understood as ecotourism and is designed for small groups of visitors, it is also classified as adventure tourism, as described by Carnicelli Filho, Schwartz, and Tahara (2010) for other adventure tourism activities in Brazil; b) the lack of structure and human resources, pointed out by Scaleante et al. (2009), are related to the public policies of the State of São Paulo, that do not prioritize the effective management of PETAR. Although all previous studies are valid, the problem is that they present their results as fixed and exact values. Therefore, CCSC must not be simply understood just as a calculation. As stated in other papers (e.g. Lobo, 2008; Mexa & Coccossis, 2004), the carrying capacity is a continuous process, as a tool for a daily management to reduce or enhance the flow of visitors in a cave according to the results of a monitoring program.

Based on the analysis of the time scales, it was possible to identify the acceptable limitations for the alterations on the environmental variables for Santana cave in the tourist route, where there are no dominant fragile features, like rock paintings or unstable minerals. Such features were a reason to reduce the number of visitors, as it has been suggested in other studies (e.g. Fernández-Cortés et al., 2006b; Hoyos et al., 1998).

Therefore, two traditional rules to establish the carrying capacity in caves were partially refuted: a) sizing the visitation rates through factors turned into space restrictions, based on the method developed by Cifuentes-Arias (1992) and applied by Boggiani et al. (2007) and others; and b) the visitation limits in view of the limitation determined by the usual environment thermal amplitude, just like Hoyos et al. (1998), among others, applied. In the present study, a new basis was established for the management of the visitation schedule, which is focused on time factors and on the capacity of the atmosphere to recover. Hence, the daily rate of visitors was no longer a principle of the method and became a consequence of the

What is the maximum number of visitors per day in Santana cave?

The answer to this question was not provided, and probably is still unknown. Instead, the focus of CCSC was to ask such question to someone that could answer: the tourist stakeholders and managers. Based on their answer, the possibilities of tourist use of the Santana cave were checked, considering the main critical environmental parameters.

After the field tests and the analysis of their results, a threshold for CCSC was established. The possible interval between the groups entering the cave should be 30 min during the work days and 20 min during the weekends and holidays, resulting in a feasible daily limit of 378 visitors in weekends and holidays and 336 visitors during the week. These rates are in accordance with the characteristics of the tourism practiced in the Santana cave.

It is very important to remind that the entrance intervals, as suggested in this article, show the flexibility of the method herein proposed. Flexible entrance intervals also show the importance of a continued monitoring of the environmental factors, of the visitors satisfaction and of the dynamics of the tourism inside the cave, so that more adequate schedules of visitation can be established.

The use of the temperature of the air in a tourist carrying capacity evaluation has opened a new field of possibilities, against the paradigm of zero impact. It has also pointed out that each and every study of tourist carrying capacity, for each cave or even for several routes inside one same cave, need to consider different contexts for different groups of visitors. The process to establish the tourist carrying capacity of show caves requires a thorough study, with a minimal base including one complete yearly cycle of rain and drought. The use of the present method is not recommended for a shorter period of data (weeks or months).

The results from the present study also show the need to understand the carrying capacity as a management tool. The method does not present a fixed limitation of the quantity of visitors, but instead proposes a dynamic interval, according to the responses from the field tests. Such responses can be different due to the tourist and climate seasons, resulting in different levels of carrying capacity for each season of the year or tourist season, as it has already been mentioned in the study

by Lario and Soler (2010) and Šebela and Turk (2014b). Considering the aforementioned conditions, each season of the year will present different levels of carrying capacity.

The results also provided a basis for another conclusion: no mathematical and linear responses should be expected to arise from the environment that could solve the problem of the tourist management, exempting the managers and researchers from their responsibilities.

The fact that there is a wider range of possibilities of tourism activities in caves reinforces the need to adopt scientific practices and long term measures. The management plans should have the responses from the measurable environment parameters as strategic benchmarks to responsible actions related to the management of other show caves. Several show caves around the world keep up with environmental and atmospheric monitoring protocols for long periods.

Moreover, the managers of show caves constantly deal with the issue of carrying capacity and the acceptable impacts on the environment in their management routines. Many of these caves receive an annual number of visitors that, sometimes, is much higher than the Santana cave does, and their visitation area is also larger. This being said opens up the possibility of application of the CCSC method in show caves with larger volumes of visitation in larger available spaces.

Therefore, the alternative presented in this article provides a different way to formulate new questions and get the answers, focusing on the dynamics of the environment and the tourist demand, in a sustainable perspective of management.

H.A.S. Lobo / Tourism Management Perspectives 16 (2015) 67–75

Acknowledgments The author thanks the CAPES (Coordination of Improvement of Higher Level Personnel) and the CNPq (National Council of Technological and Scientific Development) for the scholarship during the field works of the present research.

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Heros Augusto Santos Lobo Bachelor in Tourism, Specialist in Environmental Management in Forestry Systems, Master in Geography, PhD in Geosciences and Environment, Adjunct Professor of Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar), Member of the Board of Directors (2014–2018) of International Show Caves Association (ISCA). H. Lobo has an experience in Tourism and Environment, acting on the following topics: tourist planning, tourist management of destinations and natural protected areas, ecotourism, management of show caves, climate monitoring and tourist carrying capacity.