MYTH OF RENEWABLE ENERGY: SOLAR AND WIND In Myanmar, myths about solar energy abound. One example is that solar is expensive. Another is that solar will destroy the stability of the national grid infrastructure. The widespread belief in these myths hinders the successful development of solar power plants, especially on the commercial to utility scale. In the early 2000s, these myths were true to some extent. However with the current innovation and evolution of technology, they have become legends of the past. Based on the 2020 Incoterms8 that EAM has sought for CIF Yangon’s offer, the cost of solar panel modules is plummeting to US$0.22 per Wp for large scale projects – an astounding drop compared to a decade ago. Moreover, the efficiency of the module has steadily improved by more than 20 per cent, providing better annual yield. If we combine bifacial modules9 with solar tracking systems, efficiency can easily improve within the range of 22-28 per cent. With greater yield and less space requirement, the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) from a solar power plant is now more cost effective than other generation technologies, including fos sil-fuel-based generation. The average LCOE generated by large solar plants has fallen to US$50/MWh since October 2019, according to the Bloomberg NEF study10. Based on 2019 MOEE data and the EuroCham Myanmar Guidebook11, Myanmar has a capacity of 5504MW and a generation capacity of over 20,000GWh. Hydropower contributes to the largest share of electricity generation accounting for 55 per cent, followed by natural gas at 42 per cent and coal at 2 per cent. Generation from diesel is negligible. This mix of technologies presents a major opportunity for Myanmar to integrate variable renewable energy. Natural gas plants have a high ramp up and ramp down rate, which could compensate for solar’s variable qualities. Moreover, the availability of hydro and solar energies is a perfect match for each other. During rainy season, when there is less sunshine available, a greater share of the energy demand can come from hydro. During summer, when there are less water resources, solar can produce relatively stable energy during the daytime. In turn, this contributes to the energy mix, lowering the cost during the summer months and actually improving the overall reliability of the energy system. In addition, due to improvements in power electronics and control, it’s relatively easy to manage the variability of solar output. As such, the second myth of solar energy – that it affects grid stability – does not hold up as long as solar power plants are designed and installed according to existing grid infrastructure capacity. EAM believes that due to the downward trend of the costs of energy storage technology, in the near future we will reach a point with 100 per cent stability and constant generation from renewable energy at a cheaper cost than other generation technologies to integrate into the existing grid. With the recent announcement of 1GW solar tender by MOEE and considering the above two factors, we could expect to see such utility scale solar power plants with cheaper tariff rates (possibly below US$0.06 per unit) without negatively affecting the stability of the grid in Myanmar within the coming year. Min Chan Win and Ye Thu Win, EAM 8.
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“Incoterms®” is an acronym standing for international commercial terms and a trademark of the International Chamber of Commerce, registered in several countries. The ICC developed Incoterms in 1936 and updates them periodically to conform to changing trade practices. Bifacial modules produce energy from the rear side of the module as well as the front, working like two solar panels attached together. They also harness the additional reflected energy from the ground. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/30/lcoe-from-large-scale-pv-fell-4-to-50-per-megawatt-hour-in-sixmonths/ https://eurocham-myanmar.org/library/
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