2 BACKGROUND Since the publication of Myanmar’s Electricity Vision in 2016, the global cost of solar has decreased faster than expected. The development outlook for Myanmar has also changed and requires updating. The modelling work covered in this report is intended to promote a high level of solar and other sustainable renewable energy sources to highlight ambitious, but possible, cost-effective solutions to meet the growing electricity needs of Myanmar towards an affordable renewable energy future.
2.1 MYANMAR NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS Myanmar in 2020 prepared its draft Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) report which sets out greenhouse gas mitigation targets for the country based on conditional and unconditional targets relative to a baseline. The conditional target is based on obtaining more international support for implementation by way of finance, technology and capacity building. The unconditional target is based on leveraging only domestic resources and limited national capacities of Myanmar. zz zz zz zz zz
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A summary of the NDC background and baseline and conditional and unconditional targets are summarized below. Although the coverage of the NDC is economy-wide, the focus here is on the electricity sector: Myanmar is rich in natural resources with a population of 55 million people; it is also one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change; Myanmar has a relatively low greenhouse gas emissions level of 0.61 tons of CO2e/person; Myanmar’s baseline emissions target for the electricity generation sector is 297 million tons CO2e for the baseline and 192 and 153 million t-CO2e over the period from 2021 to 2030 for the conditional and unconditional targets respectively; To achieve its emissions reduction goals in the energy sector, the total share of renewable energy (solar and wind) needs to increase from 2,000MW to 3,070MW by 2030, and the share of coal needs to decrease from 7,940MW to 2,120MW by 2030; Under the national programme for rural electrification, mini-grid development and additional renewable energy will increase access to 2.7 million and 3.6 million people in the unconditional and conditional scenarios respectively, significantly higher than the 1.8 million under the baseline scenario; Myanmar also recognizes the importance of promoting energy efficiency and has set 2030 targets of 7.8% for the residential sector, 6.63% for the industrial sector, 4% for the commercial sector and 1.36% for all other sectors; Myanmar plans to phase out coal by 2050 and not increase its capacity after 2030.
2.2 ELECTRICITY VISION SCENARIOS The updated report explores several scenarios up to a 100% renewable energy roadmap for Myanmar using minimal hydropower. The scenarios modelled as part of this work include a base scenario (Base), Increased Renewable Scenario (IRS) and Advanced Renewable Scenario (ARS). IRS and ARS are more ambitious than the unconditional and conditional 2030 NDC targets and are intended to show that high RE outlooks can be just as feasible and cost-effective. A summary of the scenario components modelled is provided in Table 2 below. zz
Base scenario: Based on current NDC (December 2020 draft) baseline, period to 2050 is extrapolated from the NDC 2030 targets. Propose for no more coal developments after 2030, with any Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) and Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) older than 30 years lifetime on domestic gas to be replaced by LNG over time.
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Increased Renewable Scenario: Increased development of Myanmar’s RE potential. Restrained development of hydro (to what is committed).
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Advanced Renewable Scenario: Takes a more ambitious view on RE adoption with a 100% generation target by 2050. Considers new emerging technologies (and includes demand side initiatives).
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