mar13
12/3/13
9:45 am
Page 1
A Cheltenham Festival preview from the Deep-London racing correspondant, Flash Harry
H
ELLO playmates! Ready for the best week's racing of the year? Ascot is great, Goodwood is perhaps even better than Ascot, the Chester May meeting is something else as well, but nothing come close to the Festival. As we speak, plots are hatching, wagers are being made. Come March 15 it will be do-or-die for punters, and a lot will do their brains. It's the nature of the game. You need guinness, a big telly, some money in your bookmaker's account and a fair deal of nerve and patience. Get it right and you're laughing; get it wrong and ... well, you will still have seen some great racing. A heavy loser during Festival week is easy to spot round pubs in the middle week of March: they will be the character at the bar with the Racing Post spread in front of them, a large scotch, a thousand-yard stare and
the Samaritans on speed-dial. Pay no attention to them: bad luck rubs off. Talking of which, it hasn't been the best jumps season for Flash, dunno why (see side article about Betfair). When things get thin over the sticks, Flash makes a beeline for the all-weather, where knowing how the donkey races work can make you king of the sand! Nonetheless, I keep an eye on proceedings in the world of jump racing and what follows is my general views on the greatest show on Turf, and maybe even a few live ones for your punting consideration. The great trouble with the huge status of the Festival is that January and Febuary become months where horses which have festival entries are campaigned carefully in order to have them bang right for March. This can be a little frustrating. Is the horse out to play or
mar13
12/3/13
9:45 am
Page 2
Have betting exhanges changed the game forever?
getting himself together for the big week? The flip-side of this uncertainty is that once the Festival gets started you can be sure that every horse worth a light will be seriously out to play. So, eyes down for a full house. The Supreme Novices Hurdle: My Tent or Yours, the 6/4 favourite looked a seriously strong beast when knocking the competition bandy at Newbury the other week, but I'm not interested in horses at the price unless they're Frankel. The two horses in this race that interest me at DODGING BULLETS (currently a general 8/1) and RIVER MAIGUE (generally 12/1). They are both very good horses. Maigue was a length-second to Bullets at Cheltenham last November, so they have course form. At a bigger price I reckon the delightfully named CHAMPAGNE FEVER (16/1) will show big. CONTINUED OVER...
BLIMEY, is it nearly that time again? The time has come to get our wager money and drinking vouchers together and sort out the beef from the lasagne, if you get my drift. How have you spent the year since the last Cheltenham Festival, or to give it its proper title - plummy accent - the National Hunt Meeting. Me? In between birds and boozing and generally keeping the Flash Harry Exchequer in the black, I've been looking at the betting markets for the gee-gees with some alarm. I don't want to get too technical here, but: The Flash Harry approach to finding winners at decent prices, or at the very least prices far better than they should be, has always rested on spotting an edge in the market, a factor that the market makers - odds compilers, bookies, punters, tipsters - have missed, or rather undervalued. This is not as hard as it may sound, if you school yourself in the arcane art of form study. Horses that only perform in certain ground conditions, horses campaigned at tracks that go left handed when they like going right, young horses that have failed at five furlongs but steam up at seven, horses that are well-in at the weights once explanations for previous poor runnings have been arrived at, and many other signs and signals. All these things could result in a horse going off at tasty prices when they should be much shorter. Spotting these factors is is how Flash and many others make a crust out of the racing game. But this past jumps season, and to an extent the one before, your friendly neighbourhood nag scribe has felt that there is something amiss, and he has a theory to explain it: in a word, Betfair: the betting exchange. Take a look at almost any bookie at a racecourse and you'll find him ducking behind his board from time to time to have a look at something, and let me tell you, it ain't a MercedesBenz catalogue (that will be on the coffee table at home). No, it's a laptop tuned to the Betfair market. All the best racing brains and insider knowledge are moving money around on the exchange (as they have every right to do, it's what it is there for) and finally bookies big and small have woken up to it. There was a time not so long ago when the disparity between a Betfair price and a bookie's price, even allowing for the bookmaker's profit margin to round down the odds, could be substantial. Now it is virtually the same, because the prime market-maker is not to be doubted. If my theory is correct, the net result is a reduction in the amount of big-priced winners in bread-and-butter jump racing. And as any halfway serious betting man will tell you, it's two or three of these a month that keep you ahead of the poorhouse in the winter months. The ultimate test will be the Festival, playmates, so keep your binoculars handy and watch them prices! Of course, the other solution is to take a chance and get on early. See you in the champagne bar, Flash Harry
mar13
12/3/13
9:45 am
Page 3
River Maigue
The RSA Chase: I'm inclined towards a big price, natch. A brave, strong horse with all important course credentials is what is needed here, and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, currently a gigantic 40/1, fits the bill. An each-way punt if ever there was one. The Ryanair Chase: The mighty Cue Card could show out here, but I think we will see a huge fight from Willie Mullins's Sir Des Champs (providing he doesn't switch to the Gold Cup), who showed his credentials when winning at a Festival clue meeting at Leopardstown, in Ireland, a couple of weeks back. However, he wasn't entirely fluent and may fluff his lines come March. At a general 9/2 he is worth taking on. I'd be inclined to keep an eye on David Pipe's GRANDS CRUS (20/1). This nag
Grands Crus
was what we call in the game a talking horse last season, and the one before. Acres of newsprint was covered with theories of how far he was gonna after he made a good start. Sadly, he soon went the other way, however, the odds compilers kept sticking him in as favourite and the market voted with its feet: I wouldn't like to think how many
tons of tenners he swept into bookies' satchels when it all went pear-shaped. The thing about these sort of horses is that when favouritebackers and journalists have given up on them, they tend to hose up somewhere at a gigantic price, not by design just by dint of the horse not being straightforward. So watch out. If the ground's good it will also be worth taking a chance on FINIAN'S RAINBOW (16/1), who is a great horse who has run some stinkers on soft ground, and his price reflects this. If there's good ground, watch the market. He holds an entry in the Queen Mother Champion Chase as well. As does Cue Card. In The Triumph Hurdle I'm inclined to look past the front of the market at two who were out at
Finians Rainbow
at a general 25/1. He has only raced seven times and never been out of the first three, albeit in small fields. BOB'S WORTH will probably win the Cheltenham Gold Cup but at a general 3/1 ante post he doesn't excite me very much. There are numerous each way options, but I quite fancy CAPE TRIBULATION as
Cape Tribulation
an each-way prospect at 20/1. He beat former Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander (tipped by yours truly) some weeks ago at Cheltenham, when giving the old stager 6lb. Malcolm Jefferson, Cape Tribulation's trainer, is not a festival big shot, but we like an underdog in this column. So there's the tips, and it only remains for me to say: playmates, drink, smoke and gamble freely, 'cos we're all horsemeat in the end. Be lucky.
Kempton two weeks ago. Paul Nicholls's IRISH SAINT and Nicky Henderson's VASCO DU RONCERAY. The pair of them had a (All prices correct at time of going fine old dust up in the closing stages to press.) of the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle with Irish Saint getting up beating Vasco by half a length at the ps! ’s top ti f i n i s h . sh Harry a l F H o w e v e r, Maigue es: River ic v o N e m the ground ux Supre Des Obea was good : Houblon e s a h C A s RS that day and nds Cru hase: Gra Vasco is a Ryanair C nceray sco De Ro a V : le horse for d r u Triumph H ulation. good/soft. Cape Trib : p u C ld Go Should we get Maige b l e : River that come u o D s ’ y Harr ay festival week I u Roncer & Vasco D think he needs very serious consideration