EDB INTEGRATION BAROMETER – 2015

Centre for Integration Studies

EDB INTEGRATION BAROMETER 2015 Analytical Summary Report 33 2015

EDB INTEGRATION BAROMETER – 2015 (Fourth Wave of the Survey) Analytical Summary

Centre for Integration Studies Saint Petersburg 2015

UDC 316.44(327+339) BBK 65.7.65.04.60.524.60.522

Editor of the series of reports: Managing Editor: Translation: Proofreading: Layout:

Evgeny Vinokurov, PhD (Econ) Anna Isakova Sam Pinson Peter Christensen Yaroslav Podkorytov

Authors: Igor Zadorin, Olga Gurkina, Lelya Zhvirblis, Tatyana Karabchuk, PhD (Soc), Anita Moiseeva, Larisa Pautova, PhD (Soc), Lyudmila Shubina Project Manager: Vladimir Pereboev, PhD (Pol) (EDB Centre for Integration Studies)

EDB Integration Barometer — 2015 (Fourth Wave of the Survey). Analytical Summary. — St. Petersburg: EDB Centre for Integration Studies, 2015. — p. 44 ISBN 978-5-906157-24-9 The “EDB Integration Barometer” is a project of the Eurasian Development Bank’s Centre for Integration Studies, implemented in partnership with “Eurasian Monitor” International Research Agency. This project has been in operation since 2012. The purpose of the research is to monitor the integration preferences of populations in post-Soviet states (citizens of the CIS and Georgia), and to assess the foreign political, foreign economic, and sociocultural orientation of the region’s population. In 2015, the study was conducted in nine CIS countries (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Ukraine) with more than 11,000 people being surveyed (between 1,050 and 2,100 in each country).

UDC 316.44(327+339) BBK 65.7.65.04.60.524.60.522 ISBN 978-5-906157-24-9

© Eurasian Development Bank, 2015

EDB Centre for Integration Studies 7 Paradnaya street, St. Petersburg, 191014, Russia Tel.: +7 (812) 320 44 41 E-mail: centre@eabr.org Design, layout and publishing: Airoplan design studio. www.airoplan.ru. 8a Zaozernaya, St. Petersburg, Russia.

All rights reserved. Any part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise on the condition providing proper attribution of the source in all copies. Points of view or opinions in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of Eurasian Development Bank.

TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Research methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ATTITUDES TOWARD EURASIAN INTEGRATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 The perception of the Eurasian Economic Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Attitudes toward supranational institutions under the EAEU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 ECONOMIC ATTRACTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Consumer preferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Vectors of potential temporary labour migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Preferred sources of foreign capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Preferences regarding cooperation in science and technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 POLITICAL ATTRACTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Perceptions of the friendliness/unfriendliness of other countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Opinions regarding the prospect of mutual convergence of countries of the CIS region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 SOCIOCULTURAL ATTRACTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Personal communication with people from other countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Personal experience visiting other countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Educational attractiveness of other countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 GENERAL ATTRACTION INDICATORS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Indicators of mutual attraction among countries of the CIS region. . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Introduction The “EDB Integration Barometer” is a project of the Eurasian Development Bank’s Centre for Integration Studies, implemented in partnership with “Eurasian Monitor” International Research Agency. This project has been in operation since 2012. The purpose of the research is to monitor the integration preferences of populations in post-Soviet states (citizens of the CIS and Georgia), and to assess the foreign political, foreign economic, and sociocultural orientation of the region’s population.

In 2012, 11 countries participated in the nationwide survey (10 CIS countries and Georgia). In 2013, a twelfth country (Turkmenistan) joined the project. In 2014, the study was conducted in 11 countries, as in 2012 (10 CIS countries and Georgia less Turkmenistan). In 2015, the study was conducted in nine CIS countries (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Ukraine) with more than 11,000 people being surveyed (between 1,050 and 2,100 in each country).

Research methodology

EDB Integration Barometer research is conducted through regular surveys of public opinion using a consistent methodology. This makes it possible not only to record the present state of integration preferences in public opinion but also to detect changes in these preferences.

The concept of an individual’s “integration preference” is interpreted in the Integration Barometer through the simpler basic concept of “attraction to a country.” This concept —“attraction”— on the level of the individual includes interest, sympathy, connections (through work, relatives, etc.), and willingness to work together, while on the level of a country’s entire population it reflects public support for cooperation and integration, as expressed in aggregate public sentiment. Attraction is measured across three dimensions: sociocultural, economic, and political. Each dimension, in turn, is revealed through a respondent’s specific interest and an appropriate question.

The specified list of questions and answers has made it possible to form three groups of conclusions with respect to the data for each question: integration preferences for post-Soviet states (preference for CIS countries)1, integration preference outside this space (preference for the European Union or the “rest of the world”), and the level of public opinion for a country’s own autonomous development (no “attractive” countries, or difficulty in making a choice). The justification for assigning each respondent’s answers to one of the attraction vectors is his or her choice of at least one country from the corresponding cluster (see Table 1).

A detailed description of the research methodology can be found in the full version of 1

In this summary, post-Soviet space means the 12 former republics of the USSR that originally belonged to the CIS. The term CIS region is used synonymously. The three pre-Baltic countries are classified as European Union countries and do not belong to the post-Soviet space.

4

Introduction 

Countries (possible responses) 1

Azerbaijan

2

Armenia

3

Belarus

4

Georgia

5

Kazakhstan

6

Kyrgyzstan

7

Moldova

8

Russia

9

Tajikistan

10

Turkmenistan

11

Uzbekistan

12

Ukraine

13

Great Britain

14

Germany

15

France

16

Other EU countries (specify which)

17

India

18

China

19

United States

20

Turkey

21

Japan

22

Countries of the Arab/Islamic world (Middle East and North Africa)

23

Other countries (specify which)

24

None

Country cluster (geopolitical vector) Countries of the CIS region

Table 1. Potentially attractive countries (available choices)

European Union countries

Other countries (“rest of the world”)

Autonomy

the analytical report on the EDB website2. The primary survey data is publicly available.

This analytical summary presents the main results of the fourth wave of the EDB Integration Barometer, changes to integration sentiment for 2012–2015, and attitudes toward Eurasian economic integration. A distinguishing feature of the 2015 research is an examination of integration preferences by age group and separate macro-regions in certain countries.

2

The full version of the “EDB Integration Barometer — 2015” report, which is the basis for this analytical summary, as well as appendices and other supplementary materials on the research results are available in Russian on the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) website at http://www.eabr.org/r/research/centre/projectsCII/integration_barometer/. Tables and figures provided in this text are taken from the full version of the report.

5

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Attitudes toward Eurasian integration The perception of the Eurasian Economic Union

The research gave special place to studying the attitudes of the public in Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states toward their participation in the EAEU, and public opinion in other countries of the CIS region regarding the expediency of their states joining the EAEU. Recall that the EAEU was created in 2015 from the Customs Union (CU) and the Single Economic Space (SES). Thus, before 2015, public opinion was analysed with respect to the CU and SES. The distribution of responses to this survey question is depicted in the chart in Figure 1.

According to the 2015 survey, in EAEU member states a positive attitude toward Eurasian economic integration prevails (Fig. 1). Public support for participation in the EAEU in Russia and Kazakhstan stands at 78% and 80%, respectively. Citizens of Armenia and Belarus place the least value on participation in the EAEU (56% and 60%, respectively). Moreover, the trend for the year is slightly negative (positive responses fell by 8 percentage points in both countries). Furthermore, Armenia has seen gradual growth in the percentage of citizens who are indifferent or hold a negative attitude toward the country’s participation in the Eurasian Economic Union.

We should also say a word about Kyrgyzstan, which at the time the survey was conducted (April–June 2015) was in the process of joining the EAEU. Since Kyrgyzstan became a full EAEU member state in August 2015, its citizens were surveyed regarding the desirability of joining the EAEU. According to the research results, among the countries in the region, Kyrgyzstan registered the highest level of public support for Eurasian economic integration, setting a four-year high after increasing from 50% of the population in 2014 to 86% in 2015 (in 2012 and 2013, the figures were 67% and 72%, respectively).

Among countries that do not yet belong to the EAEU, the greatest indicators of public support for the prospect of joining the union were exhibited by Tajikistan (72%), whose population is predominantly oriented toward economic cooperation with countries in the CIS region, chiefly Russia. This fact indicates the expediency and demand for further strategic development of EAEU’s integrated cooperation with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan where, in 2014, 68% of the population wanted to see their country in the EAEU. In 2015, Moldova experienced some growth in the percentage of its citizens who would like to see their country in the EAEU — from 49% in 2014 to 53% in 2015— as well as a slight reduction in the share of those who oppose or are indifferent to that possibility.

In Ukraine, support for the prospect of joining the EAEU fell by one-third last year 6

Attitudes toward Eurasian integration 

EAEU member states

Definitely favourable, probably favourable / Definitely yes, probably yes Indifferent Probably unfavourable, definitely unfavourable / Probably no, definitely no It’s hard to say Kazakhstan

2012 2013 2014 2015

Russia

2012 2013 2014 2015

Belarus

2012 2013 2014 2015

Armenia

2012 2013 2014 2015

Kyrgyzstan

Countries who have signed the European Union Association Agreement

Tajikistan

Georgia

2012 2013 2014 2015

Ukraine

67 60 60

Azerbaijan

2012 2013 2014 2015

Turkmenistan

2012 2013 2014 2015

15 28

67

23

26 29

21

86

30 41

49

19 22

39

65 11

53 57

8 38 37

9 50

34

23

8

8 31 50

60 46

6

64 13

53

14

7 6

Question put to countries that are not EAEU members: As you know, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia joined the Eurasian Economic Union (essentially a single market for the four countries).

Do you think it would be desirable for our country to join this union?

(In %)

14 6

1

17 4

1

3 2

5

16 20 24 31 29

11

12

9

6

9

9

11

54

50

31

14 10

59

53

.

3 5 8 10

13 15

77

68

2

6

6

76 75 72 72 67

5

6 5

12

30

10

4

2 3

19

15

72

4

17

24

30

67 64

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015

79 78

4

5

17 24

72

6

7

10

61 56

10

15

84

65 68

2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015

Moldova

80

2012 2013 2014 2015

Uzbekistan

80

73

Figure 1. Question put to EAEU member states: As you know, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia joined the Eurasian Economic Union (essentially a single market for the four countries). What is your opinion of this decision?.

7

5

28 11

9 100%

and stood at just 19% in 2015 (with 60% negative responses). Although not as sharp, a statistically significant drop was recorded in Georgia: the share in favour of a hypothetical accession into the EAEU declined from 53% in 2014 to 41% in 2015, while the percentage of those opposed climbed from 23% in 2014 to 34% in 2015. Thus, in these two countries, the number of advocates for Eurasian economic integration has fallen significantly relative to last year.

7

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

The group of countries with a predominantly sceptical view of Eurasian integration has traditionally included Azerbaijan where 64% of residents in 2014 were against a potential accession into the EAEU, and only 22% expressed support for the possibility.

We may expect this trend to continue in the coming years since scepticism of integration is a normal phenomenon experienced by virtually every integration union in the world.

An analysis of the differing opinions of various age cohorts regarding support for Eurasian integration shows (Fig. 2), for example, that people from 18 to 34 years old in Kazakhstan and Armenia are slightly more likely than the adult population to view their countries’ membership in the EAEU favourably. By contrast, young people in Belarus and Russia are somewhat less likely than the adult population to give a positive opinion of membership in the EAEU. The entire population of Tajikistan, regardless of age, has a positive opinion of the possibility of joining the EAEU. This is also characteristic of Kyrgyzstan, which has already joined the EAEU (Fig. 3).

The young people of Georgia and Moldova can be divided into supporters of and opponents to accession into the EAEU, with a preponderance of supporters among the young people of Moldova and opponents among the young people of Georgia. The young people of Ukraine and Georgia, and especially Moldova, have a more negative opinion than the adult population regarding the prospect of joining the EAEU. In Ukraine, amid a general negative attitude toward the idea of joining the EAEU, the percentage of the adult population (55 years and older) in favour of joining the union exceeds that of the young people by 14%.

Figure 2. As you know, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia joined the Eurasian Economic Union (essentially a single market for the four countries). What is your opinion of this decision? (Percentages of “Favourable” and “Indifferent” responses in countries of the post-Soviet space that belong to the EAEU, grouped by age, %)

Favourable Indifferent

83

58

52

76

82

81

73

67

62

58

79

48 39

28

28

32

29

24

20 10

18-34

35-54 Armenia

8

55 and older

18-34

35-54 Belarus

55 and older

18-34

10 35-54 Kazakhstan

11 55 and older

18-34

14

35-54 Russia

10 55 and older

Attitudes toward Eurasian integration 

Desirable

Indifferent 88

84

Not desirable 88 78

75

69

65

59

37 37

42

53

47

44 34

52

36

31

28

22 10

11

11

63

58

55

55

7

8

27 17

15

9

13

9 3

2

16 7

8

1

7

Figure 3. Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia joined the Eurasian Economic Union (essentially a single market for the four countries). Do you think it would be desirable for our country to join this union? (Percentages of responses in countries of the post-Soviet space that do not belong to the EAEU, grouped by age, %)

18-34 35-54 55 and 18-34 35-54 55 and 18-34 35-54 55 and 18-34 35-54 55 and 18-34 35-54 55 and older older older older older Georgia

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Attitudes toward supranational institutions under the EAEU

As part of the 2015 survey, the populations of four EAEU member states were asked about their attitudes toward the creation of several common institutions under the EAEU: a common currency, common laws, a common army, and a common regulatory body. The responses are shown in Table 2.

An analysis shows that, without exception, citizens in all four EAEU member states lack a unified position regarding the need for the indicated common institutions: opposing opinions were split nearly evenly. The sole exception was the attitude toward a common army in Belarus and Russia: the majority of the population responded negatively. However, the view that there is no need for a common army cannot be considered dominant: only slightly more than half of respondents were opposed (57% in Belarus and 53% in Russia). Armenia also stands out: most citizens favoured a single currency, but here, too, the majority, comprising 55%, was not dominant.

Thus, we can state that an established opinion regarding the need for common institutions among EAEU member states is lacking today, and the responses received during the survey are largely arbitrary. Most likely, respondents in these countries did not expect the questions, and they answered spontaneously, as usually happens in such cases.

There is a need for a specially organized information policy designed to establish the public opinion of EAEU member states by educating the population about the essence, point, benefits, etc. of forming such common institutions.

9

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Table 2. Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia joined the Eurasian Economic Union (essentially a single market for the four countries). Do you think the Union needs…:

Armenia

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Russia

A COMMON CURRENCY Probably needed

55%

34%

46%

43%

Probably not needed

35%

46%

40%

43%

It’s hard to say

10%

20%

14%

13%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Total

COMMON LAWS Probably needed

48%

39%

42%

44%

Probably not needed

40%

43%

44%

43%

It’s hard to say

12%

18%

14%

13%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

A COMMON ARMY Probably needed

46%

24%

36%

34%

Probably not needed

44%

57%

46%

53%

It’s hard to say

11%

18%

17%

14%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

A COMMON REGULATORY BODY Probably needed

47%

37%

37%

44%

Probably not needed

38%

43%

44%

41%

It’s hard to say

15%

20%

19%

15%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

10

Economic attraction 

Economic attraction To further evaluate the attractiveness of Eurasian economic integration, we note public preferences in matters of economic cooperation in various areas among countries of the CIS region. Economic attraction among countries of the post-Soviet space generally reflects the trends observed in the previous waves of the EDB Integration Barometer.

Emigration- and immigration-preferences vectors are largely limited to the post-Soviet space and European Union countries. However, interest in business partnerships and the import of goods and technologies extends beyond the bounds of the specified territories and is primarily directed at countries in the “rest of the world,” generally the United States, Japan, and Turkey3.

Among the major trends in the economic attraction block, we may point out the following: • Persistent orientation toward Russia with respect to import of goods, labour emigration, an influx of labour and financial resources, and scientific and technological cooperation in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and, to a lesser degree, Moldova; • Increasing “openness” of the populations of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to economic cooperation with various countries but with preference for Russia continuing to dominate; • Growth of autonomous sentiment in Russia and Belarus, with Belarus maintaining its dominant attraction toward the CIS region; • Further separation of the populations of Georgia and Ukraine in terms of economic-attraction vectors: prevalence of preferences to draw closer to European countries and the United States, and gradual weakening of the desirability of ties with the countries of the post-Soviet space.

Consumer preferences

A comparison of consumer preferences across three country groups (CIS region, European Union, and “rest of the world”) does not reveal significant differences between the clusters. When comparing the average preference scores for nine countries, all three attraction vectors are mentioned with roughly equal frequency. But different priorities are registered in different countries.

In Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia (and in Uzbekistan, based on 2014), products imported from countries of the CIS region are most trusted. Residents of Georgia and the countries of the European portion of the post-Soviet space (Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova) prefer to buy goods from countries in the EU (Fig. 4). In Kyrgyzstan, consumers prefer goods from the “other countries” category, largely due to the popularity of products 3

In what follows, italics will be used to identify the countries or country clusters whose attraction level, i. e. the percentage of respondents indicating an attraction thereto, is being given.

11

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Figure 4. Which countries’ products do you prefer to buy and trust the most? (Responses grouped into four categories, in %)

Interest in countries of the CIS region: 80

2012

70

2013

2014

2015

56

60 50

34

40 30

28 30 31 29 23 24

24 25

35

28

39 40 35 23

31

34 38

59 59 57

50

67

74

36

32 28 32

62 60

59 62 59

78

69 57

67

64

34 23 24 25

20 10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in countries of the European Union: 80

2012

70

53

60 50 40

47

2013

39 43

41 41

36

2014

46

43

2015

50 47 46

43 43

55 53 56 51 36 36

48 37 33

36

46 45 43 26 27

30

30 29 26 32

20

39 24 25

22 17 16 20 19

18

24

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Interest in “other countries”: 80

2012

70

2014

2015

64

60

60 50

2013

45

44 45

35 34 36

40

41

30

32 37 36

42

38 18

20

28 26

23

40 29

36

35 23

29

67 69

Tajikistan

77 65 55

64 51

55

65

63

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

72

70 60 60

52

50

54

39

34

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

No interest in any country clusters (“autonomy”): 80

2012

2013

2014

2015

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

32

26 30

24

29

33

28

32

23 27

33

27 30

37 38

10 Russia

35 20

18 20

23

30 18

5 Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

18 17

13

Azerbaijan

11 15 11 13 10 9 9 5 Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

17 2 3 5 3 Tajikistan

9

2

7

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

from Turkey. In Russia, preference is also given to goods imported from “other countries,” especially Japan and China. In each of these situations, the corresponding attraction vector (country cluster) has substantially greater weight relative to the other two.

In comparison with 2014, Kazakhstan experienced a considerable rise in interest in goods from countries of the CIS region (a change of 10 percentage points). Conversely, in Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, the percentage of the population oriented toward buying products from countries of the CIS region fell significantly. For example, 12

Economic attraction 

in 2015, the percentage of references to these countries in Kyrgyzstan (39%) and Georgia (32%) amounted to only half of what it was in 2014 (69% and 56%, respectively).

Residents of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova are most oriented toward the domestic market, while the populations of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan are least so.

Speaking of consumer preferences when choosing products from specific countries, Russia, Germany, and Turkey hold the top positions for the residents of the CIS region.

Moreover, loyalty to German products was expressed moderately most often: 14–44% of respondents in various countries mentioned Germany. Goods from Russia are preferred by 26–66% of the populations of the participating countries, i. e. the maximum value of the indicator is substantially higher. Russian goods are popular in Tajikistan (66%), Kazakhstan (62%), and Armenia (35%). Residents of Georgia (44%), Ukraine (40%), Russia (30%), and Armenia (25%) are oriented toward products from Germany. Goods from Turkey are preferred by 30% of the population in Kazakhstan, 36% in Tajikistan, and up to 44% in Kyrgyzstan.

Judging by the distribution of responses in various sociodemographic groups, consumer preferences in most countries of the post-Soviet space are noticeably age-dependent: the younger a respondent, the less likely he or she is to express a desire to purchase goods from individual countries of the CIS region (in most cases, from Russia), and the more likely he or she is to want to buy European and American goods.

Vectors of potential temporary labour migration

One of the most important indications of a country’s economic attractiveness is the number of people expressing an intention to temporarily work in that country (Fig. 5). Of the three geopolitical blocks, none takes the lead based on average values: “Countries of the CIS region,” “European Union countries,” and the “Other countries” clusters received an average of 20–25% of mentions. The following important deviations may be noted in individual countries: • In Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan (all in 2015), and in Uzbekistan (based on data for 2014), the most expressed preference vector was for countries of the CIS region (mainly Russia).

• Increased interest in European Union countries can be seen in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Belarus, and Russia. There have not been any major changes in the distributions compared with 2014.

Within the post-Soviet space, Russia remains the leader in terms of the attractiveness of work. It is especially popular among the residents of Tajikistan, where this metric grew to 53% from 42% in 2014, and among the population of Kyrgyzstan, where 38% of respondents expressed interest in the possibility of temporary work in Russia (Fig. 5A).

This metric registered the lowest levels in Ukraine and Georgia (as expected) and in Belarus (which was relatively unexpected).

Among other trends, we should note the orientation toward temporary work in Germany among the population of Ukraine (21%), Georgia (15%), Armenia (16%), and Belarus 13

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Figure 5. In which countries would you like to temporarily work if you had the opportunity? (Responses grouped into four categories, in %)

Interest in countries of the CIS region: 80 70

2012

2013

2014

2015

62

60 50

37 38

40 30

21

20 10 0

16 15

9

3 4 2 2 Russia

Belarus

14

18

12

28 29

25

32

42

38 28

16 11 13 9

7

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

23 20 22

Azerbaijan

25 23

18

46 37

44 45

49

57 42

24

Kazakhstan

23

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

27

21

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in countries of the European Union: 80 70

2012

2013

2014

2015

60 50 40 30

31 29 29

22

20

30 27

25 23

33

40

36 37 33 35

28 30 29 28 29 30

22

30

23 27 22 20 23

26 24

18 17 18

26 13 15

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

16

8 12

18

Tajikistan

13 11 9

17

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in “other countries”: 80

2012

2013

2014

2015

70 60 50

39 38 40

40 30 20

19 16 19

10 0

20 11

Russia

16 16 14 17

Belarus

21 18 17

Ukraine

16 12 14 8 Moldova

25 24 25 22

Georgia

14

22 12

32

19

Armenia

Azerbaijan

26 26

34

41 30 31

22

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

34 35 32

27

Tajikistan

23 21 20

28

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

No interest in any country clusters (“autonomy”): 80

2012

60 50

2013

69

70

56 58

49

40

44

51

56

2014

2015

64 52 42

50 52

42 41

47 44 45 48 48

30 30

30

38 38 40 37 39

39

45

28

20

30

29 14

10 0

55

51 48

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

22 23

Kyrgyzstan

55

50 36

30

24 11

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

(15%). Among the desired destination countries for migrant workers, we note the United States, which is first in terms of mentions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Armenia (18%, 16%, and 15%, respectively).

In the overwhelming majority of countries of the CIS region, young people express a desire for temporary work in European Union countries and in the “rest of the world” more often than the adult population. For example, in Belarus 27% of young people chose Germany as their country of choice for a possible relocation for temporary work, as 14

Economic attraction 

(10–20%]

Figure 5A. In which countries would you like to temporarily work if you had the opportunity?

(Preferences within the CIS region)

(20–40%] (40–60%]

Georgia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan 14%

Belarus

27% Armenia 23%

Uzbekistan

27%

Russia 14%

38% 23%

Moldova

53% Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan

Tajikistan

For a comparison, we present data for Turkmenistan for 2013 and for Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan for 2014 (gray arrows).

compared with 13% of middle-aged respondents, while in Armenia 22% of people up to 25 years old chose the United States compared with 12% of the middle-aged population, and 22% chose Germany and France compared with 14–15% of adult respondents).

Among the countries of the post-Soviet space, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan exhibited the biggest divergence in the opinions of the young people and the adult population with respect to the “other countries” cluster: young people are more likely to express a desire to temporarily work in Turkey and the United States.

Among countries whose populations are most oriented toward the domestic labour markets, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine lead (69%, 64%, and 52% of “autonomists,” respectively). However, there has been a radical shift toward autonomy in Russia where the percentage of people oriented toward the domestic labour market increased by 20 percentage points relative to 2014. Belarus continues to gradually move toward autonomy: the number of people there who do not support the idea of temporary labour migration grows each year.

Preferred sources of foreign capital

In addition to determining the preferred directions of labour flows, our research also clarifies public preferences in countries of the CIS region with respect to sources of foreign capital.

According to the research, the distance between the preference vectors in countries 15

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

of the post-Soviet space for any particular investor country is not so significant: the countries of the CIS region, European Union, and the “rest of the world” were on average mentioned approximately equally — by 43%, 43%, and 47% of respondents, respectively (Fig. 6).

As with other questions concerning economic integration preferences, the populations of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan are predominately oriented toward capital inflow from the countries of the CIS region. The residents of Kyrgyzstan share the orientation in this area.

In Ukraine and Moldova, interest in capital inflow from European Union countries was more pronounced, chiefly due to the high frequency of references to Germany.

However, preferences for business and investments arriving from the “rest of the world,” especially the United States and Japan, are quite high in Ukraine.

In 2015, the population of Georgia expressed the greatest orientation toward investments flowing in from the “rest of the world.” This bias is the result of the high popularity of the United States, which was mentioned by more than half of respondents (52%). In Russia, there are also prevailing orientations toward foreign investors and capital inflow from non-CIS countries; China and Japan are particularly popular.

Residents of Armenia and Belarus are roughly equally oriented toward all three country blocks with a slight preference for the “other countries” cluster. This distribution may indicate that these countries are highly open to foreign investments, but their rather high desire for “autonomy” prevents an unambiguous conclusion.

The 2015 study documents the following changes relative to the data from the previous waves. In Ukraine, as with other questions, the percentage of people who prefer an inflow of investments and business from the countries of the CIS region shrank somewhat (from 25% to 19%). A slight drop in the demand for this cluster can also be seen in Georgia. However, in Kazakhstan interest in investments and business from neighbouring countries of the CIS region grew from 45% of the population in 2014 to 51% in 2015.

Interest in investor countries from the European Union grew substantially in Tajikistan and Armenia and fell in Russia. Amid the weakening attraction toward the European block, in Kyrgyzstan countries in the “rest of the world” are experiencing an increase in popularity, led by Turkey (in terms of the number of mentions). We should also note that in 2015, in all countries except Tajikistan, the percentage of people supporting an influx of investments from the EU increased by differing degrees. Significant changes have not been seen in the remaining cases.

A disposition toward autonomy in investment matters is most apparent in Russia, where more than one-third (38%) of residents could not name countries from which an inflow of foreign capital would be desirable (Fig. 6). Residents of Tajikistan, where “autonomists” only registered 7%, rely least on the resources of their own country and are accordingly open to foreign business and investments.

Based on the 2015 study, there were no significant changes in the choice of investor countries. As in the surveys of 2012–2014, among countries of the CIS region

16

Economic attraction 

Interest in countries of the CIS region: 80

2012

2013

2014

2015

70

62

60 50

41 43

40

25

30 20 10 0

50

45 49 31

39 36 26

25

43 40 42

Belarus

50

47

29

42 45

65 64 67 63

60

51

49

48

44

27 17 16

15

13 14 9 10 Russia

46 47 45

71

74 75

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in countries of the European Union: 80

2012

70 60 50

48

43 43

40

36

2013

42

37

41

2014

47

2015

59 55 57

51

58

52 54

40

48

53 52 51 38

42

47 34

26 25 26

30

30 33

35 35

38 36

37 27

27 16

20

42

36

Figure 6. From which countries would it be desirable for our country to receive capital, investments, and an influx of companies, entrepreneurs, and businessmen to set up their firms among us? (Responses grouped into four categories, in %)

33

21 23 19

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in “other countries”: 80

2012

70

2013

60 50 40

42 39

37

45 46 44

49

2014

54

47 49

2015

55

37

59 60 59

50 40

75

66

39 41

54 54 56 35

43

37

44

43 44

37

42

48

66

58

53

62 61 45

42 27 23

27

30 20 10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

30 29 27

26 29 26

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

No interest in any country clusters (“autonomy”): 80

2012

2013

2014

2015

70 60 50 40 30

32

36 34 38

20

36 22 25 23

17

24 23 25

19 19 19 13 16

10

8

15 17

26 26 26 23

35 21

13

9

15

20 11

0 Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

7 2 3 3 Tajikistan

12 16

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

the leading position as a source of foreign capital are held by Russia, which is preferred by the residents of all countries in the post-Soviet space (mentioned by an average of 37% of respondents), except Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. As a source of foreign capital, Russia enjoys special popularity in Tajikistan where it was mentioned by nearly 70% of residents, and Kyrgyzstan (59%). Russia also strengthened its position in Armenia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan where there is a small positive trend.

17

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

However, in Ukraine this year there has been a major collapse in Russia’s attractiveness as a source of foreign capital: for the first time in four years, this indicator sank to 9% (in 2013 and 2014 the figures were 27% and 21%, respectively). There were no major changes in the remaining countries.

The population of Georgia remains consistent in its views and prefers an influx of investments from the United States, which was mentioned by more than half of the country’s residents (52%). Approximately the same percentage of respondents support US investment in Armenia (45%) and Ukraine (47%), which have experienced substantial growth in support for business and investments coming from the United States (compared with the 2014 wave, this indicator has increased from 27% to 45%, and from 39% to 50%, respectively). Germany is one of the most desirable partners in Ukraine (50%), where we note that the attractiveness of German business has grown by 11 percentage points, and in Moldova (42%). An influx of investments from China is preferred by roughly one-third of the residents of Belarus (37%) and Russia (32%). An orientation toward Asian business partners is expressed slightly more often in the latter due to mentions of Japan (18%).

Preferences regarding cooperation in science and technology

The set of indicators of economic attraction also traditionally includes a determination of the preference vectors for cooperation in science and technology.

Compared with the previous wave of the Integration Barometer, there have not been any major shifts in public preferences among participating countries in the choice of clusters: based on the total number of mentions, countries outside the EU and the CIS region remain the leading partner countries for scientific and technological cooperation — the “Other countries” cluster was mentioned by half of respondents on average (53%).

Second place was taken by “European Union countries” (44%), with “Countries of the CIS region” (40%) lagging significantly behind. This bias is the result of a large number of mentions of countries with innovative economies: Japan, the United States, and China. In all, the “Other countries” cluster has the greatest relative weight, compared to the other clusters, in Russia, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Armenia (and in 2014 in Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan) (Fig. 7).

With regard to scientific and technological cooperation, the countries of the CIS region are primarily oriented toward Russia (35%), Germany (36%), and Japan (31%).

Russia is most attractive as a partner in scientific and technological cooperation in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (more than 50% of mentions), and in Kazakhstan and Belarus (49% of mentions). The lowest figures for this question were registered in Georgia and especially in Ukraine where interest in Russia as a partner in the innovative sector of the economy fell by a factor of two and, just as with a number of other questions, stands at a record low (11%).

Approximately half of the residents of Belarus (47%), Georgia (46%), Ukraine (44%), and Moldova (41%), and slightly more than one-third of the populations of Russia and Armenia (36% and 33%, respectively) are interested in Germany as a key partner in sci18

Economic attraction 

ence and technology. In the area of science and technology, cooperation is most desirable with Japan according to the populations of Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus (the percentage of mentions ranges from 40% to 50%). Partnership with the United States is preferred in Ukraine, Armenia, and Georgia (by 38–42% of respondents), while in Russia and Belarus (43% and 38%, respectively) the preferred partner is China. Among the dynamic shifts, the strengthening of China’s position as a partner in science and technology in Russia stands out the most (from 27% in 2014 to 43% in 2015).

Interest in countries of the CIS region: 80

2012

70

2013

2014

60

60

46 46 50 40

50 40

10

49 32

30 20

2015

39 27

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

41

41

37

Moldova

Georgia

49 50

42 31

25

16 19 20 16

18

14 9 10 12

0

43 46

Armenia

20

53

61 63

65

58

68 71

67 55

60 49

59 49

26

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in countries of the European Union: 80

2012

70 60

55

50

47 46

40

42

2013

48

42

2014

47 51 49

2015

53 53 54 50 55 51 52 53 50 53 52

43

41 42 31

30

34 34 35

37 37 39 37 24

32 29

39 39 42 38 24

20

46

Figure 7. With which countries would it be beneficial to our government and businesses to engage in scientific and technological cooperation, conduct joint research, and exchange developments, technologies, and scientific ideas? (Responses grouped into four categories, in %)

19 20 20

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in “other countries”: 2012

80 70 60

64 61 61

69

2013

2014

59 56 60 60

50

48

57 54

2015

62

60 61 40

40

46

65 64 41

38 39

55

49

59 62

67

62 59

74 70 58

55 52 55 54

40

67 65

67

50 34

30

33 31

20 10 0 Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

No interest in any country clusters (“autonomy”): 80

2012

70

2013

2014

2015

60 50 40 30 20

15

20 19 18

10 0

Russia

10

17 17

Belarus

22 11

16 19 18

Ukraine

11

19 20 20

Moldova

20

15 14 16

Georgia

22 23

27

23

Armenia

27 26 16

Azerbaijan

11

17 15 15

Kazakhstan

11 11 13 7 Kyrgyzstan

17 4 3 3 5 Tajikistan

9 13

13

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

19

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Seen overall, in the economic sphere, virtually no countries share a dominant integration preference. However, the countries of the post-Soviet space may be divided into the following groups: • Oriented chiefly toward the CIS region: Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

• Oriented chiefly toward the CIS region and “other countries”: Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

• Oriented chiefly toward “other countries”: Azerbaijan (and Georgia, to a degree).

• Oriented chiefly toward European Union countries and “other countries”: Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and Russia. However, Moldova has a high percentage of respondents oriented economically toward the CIS region.

• No priority, the attraction of the three clusters (“Countries of the CIS region,” “European Union countries,” and “Other countries”) are approximately equal: Armenia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

It is conspicuous that, just as in the previous waves, the population of Russia demonstrates the highest sentiment toward autonomy in the economic sphere and more similarity in its orientations with those of Georgia and Ukraine than with those of the citizens of the EAEU member states (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan).

20

Political attraction 

Political attraction Perceptions of the friendliness/unfriendliness of other countries

Day-to-day perceptions of political integration (alliances) are the most complex metalevel of public consciousness. In particular, political appraisals, sympathy, and challenges most often become the focus of sociological campaigns, media outlets, and authorities.

Moreover, foreign political sentiments can fluctuate widely since they are rigidly tied to the sequence of events. They are to a lesser degree linked to personal experience but are highly dependent on the information context.

In everyday awareness, the political “solitaire” of the countries of the post-Soviet space over the last year maintained its overall layout and logic but changed substantially in a few areas. As before, there is no discernible difference of opinion among countries regarding assessments of governments’ friendliness/unfriendliness or the possibilities of military and political aid. Just as in previous years, in the majority of countries of the post-Soviet space the population is more likely to call countries within the same CIS region friendly — former republics of the USSR (countries adjacent to the CIS region were preferred on average by 80% of the populations of all of the countries studied in 2015) (See Fig. 8).

However, the specific details of this preference for various countries are not so single-valued. For example, the populations of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, and the countries of the central Asian subregion are most likely to designate Russia, Belarus, and other countries within the same central Asian subregion as friendly countries. However, if the citizens of Georgia, Ukraine, and to a degree Moldova choose allies among the other countries of the CIS region, they generally choose them out of this same provisional “GUAM” (Georgia–Ukraine–Azerbaijan–Moldova) block.

Furthermore, Ukraine and Moldova have registered an increased perception of the friendliness of European Union countries, while in Georgia we can see the same phenomenon with respect to the “rest of the world” (mainly with respect to the United States. This is also characteristic of Ukraine in the last year).

The serious change in Ukrainian citizens’ military and political orientations over the last two years is conspicuous: they shifted from a feeling of friendliness of the countries of the CIS region to searching for allies outside of this region4. Stable geopolitical attraction is characteristic for the remaining countries, except in Armenia and Moldova where remarkable fluctuations in political attraction indices have been observed over the four waves of surveys.

The population of Azerbaijan did not participate in the 2015 survey, but based on prior data for 2012–2014 we should note that in addition to historical sympathies toward the CIS region it is traditionally oriented toward Turkey.

4

We note that the change in public opinion in Ukraine from 2014 to 2015 is largely shaped by the change in the “borders” of the total population participating in the surveys (in 2014, this total didn’t include Crimea, and in 2015 Donbass was excluded).

21

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Figure 8. In your opinion, which of the listed countries are friends of our country (i. e. countries we can rely on for help in an hour of need)? (Responses grouped into four categories, in %)

Interest in countries of the CIS region: 2012 100 90 80 70

65 68

78 79

2013

2014

2015

83 86 86 87

76 78

67 68 53 55

60 50

92 94 88 87 65

72 76 76

69

89 89 92 91 90

97

86

95 90 95 92

96 91 95 95 76

63 61 59

58

40 30 20 10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Interest in countries of the European Union: 80

2012

70

2013

2014

60

48 51

50 40 30 20

28

22

28 17 14

10 0

2015

Russia

36

56 46

42

51

49 38

43

46 34

38

Belarus

19

16

11 12 11 14 Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

37

32 8 6 5

Armenia

Azerbaijan

23

17 14

Kazakhstan

6

15

14

34 23 13

3 5

Kyrgyzstan

Uzbekistan

7 7

11

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Interest in “other countries”: 80 70

2012

60

30

2014

2015

70

67 65 63

52

50 40

2013

41 27 28

36

31 29 30 33 18

20

45

40 26

23

14

22 20

15 18

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

63

49 51

Georgia

25 7

34 32

18

13

Armenia

Azerbaijan

35

30 32 29

Kazakhstan

25

Kyrgyzstan

33

Uzbekistan

33

29

37 24

Tajikistan

29

Turkmenistan

No interest in any country clusters (“autonomy”): 80

2012

2013

2014

2015

70 60 50 40 30 20

26 24

16 14

10 0

Russia

25 13 12 11 11 Belarus

18

23 24 8 7

Ukraine

14 15

Moldova

20 10

4

10

Georgia

4 4

10 10

Armenia

16 16

24 11

Azerbaijan

8 9 7 8 Kazakhstan

7

12 2

2

Kyrgyzstan

8

3 6

2 5 3 4

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Here and in similar diagrams that follow (grouped by the clusters “Countries of the CIS region,” “European Union countries,” the “Rest of the world,” — “Other countries,” and “Autonomy”), percentages are calculated as the share of respondents who mention at least one country from the corresponding cluster. For example, in Fig. 1 87% of the residents of Belarus mentioned at least one country from the CIS region, 14% at least one country from the European Union, and 33% at least one country from the “rest of the world” (see the “Belarus” column for 2015).

22

Political attraction 

Figure 8 shows that European Union countries are noticeably more likely to be called friendly by respondents in Georgia and especially in Ukraine and Moldova. In 2014, in Moldova and Georgia, this figure had dropped somewhat, but in 2015 it grew in all three countries. However, this year there was a notable drop in the frequency of mentions of “other countries” as friendly in Georgia (from 63% to 45%) and a sharp rise in such mentions in Russia (from 41% to 52%) and Ukraine (from 36% to 44%). In 2015, we should also note the increased trust in the “rest of the world,” especially in Russia (from 41% to 52%) and Ukraine (from 36% to 44%). Having said that, the increased sympathies are the result of different factors: in Ukraine, they are due to increased sympathies for the United States; in Russia due to increased feelings for China. We note here that, based on the 2015 survey, the countries friendliest towards Russia, according to citizens, are primarily Belarus (66%), Kazakhstan (54%), and China (45%) (see Fig. 9).

Within the post-Soviet space, Russia is still rated as “friendly” most often: respondents from six countries ranked Russia first based on the frequency of mentions as a “friendly country” (Fig. 10). Among other countries, Kazakhstan (with three incoming sympathy vectors: Russia (84%), Belarus (48%), Kyrgyzstan (30%)) and Belarus (with two vectors: Russia (66%) and Kazakhstan (54%)) are becoming notable objects of attraction at the level of 40–60%.

The most significant change concerns relations between the populations of Ukraine and Russia: in 2013, Russia was designated a “friendly country” by 54% of respondents in Ukraine, then by 24% in 2014, and by only 9% in 2015.

In Ukraine and Belarus, there is the greatest difference of opinion among different age groups. The young people of Belarus are relatively less inclined to consider Russia a friendly power than the older population (73% of young people versus 84% of the adult population), while the young population of Ukraine is considerably more likely to express sympathy for European Union countries (especially Germany) and the United States.

We should note the obvious influence of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict on the attitudes of the residents of these two countries. If in 2014 we could draw only cautious conclusions, then in 2015 the negative trends or unstable oscillations have become more distinct. Ukraine saw an intensification of the previous year’s sharp decline in the number of mentions of Russia as a friendly country amid a simultaneous rise in orientations toward European Union countries and the United States. In parallel with the erosion of Russia’s friendly image in Ukraine, negative opinions of the neighbouring state are also growing among Russians. However, and this is very important, at this stage the force of the conflict is not affecting the private interests of the residents of other states so as to abruptly alter attitudes toward both Russia and Ukraine. In other words, in the view of many residents of other countries of the CIS region, the Russian–Ukrainian conflict remains just that — a Russian–Ukrainian conflict — without dividing other countries into two opposing camps.

23

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Figure 9. In your opinion, which of the listed countries are friends to our country (i. e. countries we can rely on for help in an hour of need)? (Top 3 in each country on average for 2013–2015, in %)

2012 100

2013

2015

2014

Azerbaijan

100

Armenia

91

100

87 86

90

90

80

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

66

70 60

44

50 40 30

25

20

14

20 10

0

0 Georgia

30

30

21

10 Turkey

37

40

29 30

90

Russia

27 15

Russia

Georgia

Kazakhstan

80

80

70

70

56 52

50

46 33

40

100

83 85 84

60

42

38

40

24

32 30

20

20

10

10

10

0

Moldova

Belarus

Kyrgyzstan

Russia

Russia 100

100

90

90

80

72 47

46

50 40

60

38

43

50

39

20

18

10 0 Russia

Other countries of the EU

Ukraine

Turkmenistan

100

90

90

70

17

Belarus

Kazakhstan

China

50

47

20

15 16

0 Russia

90

Kazakhstan

China

100

86

90 80 70

60

52

50

50

20

20

20

10

10

10

0

0

0

31 30

Russia

Kazakhstan

54

60

46

30

24

29

22 26

30

40

Belarus

42

40

30

Ukraine

86 90

50

40

Russia

78

Ukraine

70

54

Turkey

10

80

70

60

32

Uzbekistan

100 80

33

20

0

Kazakhstan

60

45

42

30

10

12 14

70

54

50

40

24

30

80

65 66

70

56

60

18

Tajikistan

90 70

25

30

100 80

42

0 Russia

Azerbaijan

54

40

30

United States

Ukraine

89

50

20

Ukraine

81

60

30

0

93

90

46 46 48

50

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

80

53

26 24

0 France

90

59

43

20

100

54

39

43

30

90

60

54

40

100

70

80 83 81

10 Russia

Georgia

21

Belarus

Turkmenistan

40 30

46 29

40

37 28

26

24 9

Belarus

Other countries of the EU

Russia

Political attraction 

(60–80%]

(20–40%]

(80–100%]

(40–60%] Ukraine

Azerbaijan Georgia

Armenia

Belarus

66%

86% Uzbekistan

86%

Azerbaijan

53%

38%

Ukraine

37%

Georgia Armenia Belarus

81%

54%

Uzbekistan

Russia

Figure 10. In your opinion, which of the listed countries are friends to our country (i. e. countries we can rely on for help in an hour of need)? (Preferences within the CIS region, 2015)

Russia

46% 89% 84%

70%

Moldova

90%

Kyrgyzstan

Turkmenistan Kazakhstan

Tajikistan

42% Kyrgyzstan

54%

54%

Moldova

47%

48% 46%

Turkmenistan Kazakhstan

42%

Tajikistan

The diagram is split into two parts to enhance readability. The gray arrows indicate survey data from 2014 and 2013 for purposes of comparison, since in 2015 the survey was not conducted in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Here and in similar diagrams, an arrow from Country 1 to Country 2 means that when answering this question n% of respondents in Country 1 mentioned Country 2, e. g. in responses to this question 84% of those surveyed in Kazakhstan called Russia a friendly country. The size of each data point is proportional to the average percentage of mentions of the country, calculated across all countries.

Opinions regarding the prospect of mutual convergence of countries of the CIS region

An important indication of the attitude toward the political integration of countries in the post-Soviet space is the attitude toward the prospects of integration processes. Accordingly, a corresponding direct question was added to the EDB Integration Barometer questionnaire (Fig. 11).

In Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Belarus, the percentage of respondents who believe that in the next five years the countries of the CIS region will converge amount to between 41% in Belarus and 70% in Kyrgyzstan and significantly exceed the percentage of “pessimists.”

In Armenia and Moldova, the “integration optimists” also outnumber the “sceptics”— but not by as much — and they do not comprise a dominant group. In Georgia, the percentages of “pessimists” and “optimists” are extremely close, except that over the last year the balance has changed toward pessimism.

Finally, in Ukraine, just as in 2014, the percentage of respondents who believe that the countries of the CIS region will move further apart exceeds those who hold the opposite point of view. This result has been seen since 2014 and is undoubtedly the consequence of Ukraine’s abrupt turn toward Europe and the rise in the Ukrainian population’s negative attitudes toward Russia and the associated post-Soviet world.

In Armenia, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, a favourable view of the future of integration processes is more typical of the older generations. The opposite trend exists in Georgia and Moldova. Young people up to 24 years old in Moldova and Georgia describe the future of CIS countries’ integration processes more positively, which is among the survey’s lowest (after Ukraine) overall average share of “The countries will converge” responses.

25

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Figure 11. Do you think that in the next five years the CIS countries (former USSR) will converge or move apart, or that nothing will change substantially?

(In %)

The countries will converge

Nothing will change

The countries will move apart

It’s hard to say 46

2012 2013 Uzbekistan 2014 2015

45 53 51

2012

Kazakhstan 2013 2014

59

2015

2012 Tajikistan 2013 2014 2015

50 51 46

2012 2013 Kyrgyzstan 2014 2015

46

2012 2013 Turkmenistan 2014 2015

41

2012 2013 Belarus 2014 2015

41

Russia

37

27 26

23

2012 2013 Moldova 2014 2015

2012 Azerbaijan 2013 2014 2015

26

62

23

50

32

70

13

18

18

27 25

23

19

35 26 27

24

38 23

33

36

33

9

9 17

4

7

15 8

10

14

14 14 19 25

24

22 17

38 34

33 30

17 18

24

17 33

30

15 12

8

8

12

29 28

16

25

18

21

24 20

29

10

18 12

39

15

12 10 14

9 13

7

41

30 25

20

11

41

25

32 37

26 32

38

4

33

34 37

4

14 15 13 12

7

6

41

15

27

5

7

26

29

32 29

28 26

19 25

33

34 32

30 32 29

5 3

33 28

21

26

2012 2013 2014 2015

2012 Ukraine 2013 2014 2015

63

49 47

2012 2013 Armenia 2014 2015

Georgia

28 30

27

2

14

8

19

41

2012 2013 2014 2015

7

20

69

13

18 21

22

17 19 21

29 16

11 13 100%

Sociocultural attraction 

Sociocultural attraction Sociocultural attraction under this project is above all considered to be an expression of citizens’ practical interests with respect to other countries in the sociocultural sphere, e. g. the presence of continuously maintained personal ties, a desire to visit these countries as a tourist, or interest in receiving an education there.

The routine of interaction with various countries, of course, largely determines any particular integration orientations. At present, intense personal communications are maintained between citizens of different countries (Ukrainians, Belorussians, Armenians, and Azerbaijanis in Russia; Russians in the countries of Central Asia and Ukraine; etc.), including by relatives and friends. To a great extent, this is a legacy of the USSR. These communications have been supplemented by the “new” connections that have emerged from labour migrations since the 21st century began (residents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in Russia; residents of Moldova in Russia and Ukraine; citizens of Uzbekistan in Russia and Kazakhstan). In some countries, the age distribution indicates that interest in countries that formerly belonged to the USSR is gradually being left in the past, and the young people are increasingly interested in other countries.

Personal communication with people from other countries

One of the important indicators of the sociocultural closeness of countries is the presence of real communication with relatives, friends, and colleagues located in other countries. On average across the nine countries in which a question about the presence of close personal connections with whom communications are maintained, 57% of those surveyed indicated that they have such connections in countries of the post-Soviet space (recall that in 2014 this figure was 59% for 11 countries, i. e. it remains virtually unchanged). This is evidence of the presence of significant social integration in the CIS region, which is an important precondition for the progress of Eurasian integration.

Among the EU countries with which residents of the post-Soviet space maintain continuous connections, we should make specific mention of the following: • Residents of Moldova maintain close communications mainly with connections from Romania and Italy (more than 33%).

• Residents of Armenia communicate most often with acquaintances in France (14%).

• Residents of Georgia communicate a lot with people in various European Union countries (29%).

Armenia has a relatively far-reaching “communications diaspora”5 beyond the post-Soviet space and Europe. One in five residents over the age of 18 maintains contact with residents in the United States (19% of those surveyed). Residents of Georgia have a large number of contacts with people in the United States and Turkey (9% and 12%, respectively).

5

Please note that the meaning of “diaspora” here is different than normal.

27

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

(20–40%]

Figure 12. In which of the listed countries do you have relatives, close friends, and colleagues with whom you maintain regular communication (in person, by mail, phone, etc.)?

(Preferences within the CIS region, 2015)

(40–60%] (60–80%] Belarus

Грузия Azerbaijan

21% 25%

Ukraine

43%

31%

21% 82%

Armenia

31% 20% 55%

Russia 41% Uzbekistan

65% 21%

27% 45%

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

79%

Moldova

Turkmenistan

Tajikistan

Remember that this type of diagram (with arrows) shows information about responses with percentages that exceed a certain minimum threshold. This threshold is indicated in the diagram’s legend (in this case, 20%). An arrow from Country 1 to Country 2 means that n% of respondents in Country 1 mentioned Country 2 when responding to this question. For example, 82% of those surveyed in Armenia mentioned Russia in response to this question. The size of each data point is proportional to the average percentage of mentions of the country, calculated across all countries. For a comparison, we present data for Turkmenistan for 2013 (gray arrow), and for Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan for 2014.

Within the countries of the CIS region, the strongest ties with Russia were expressed by Armenia (82% of respondents maintain contact with friends and colleagues in Russia), Tajikistan (79%), and Kyrgyzstan (65%). In 2015, ties with Ukraine fell in all countries except Moldova and Tajikistan (this interest has been stable there through all of the years the study has been conducted) (Fig. 12).

Personal experience visiting other countries

The next two indicators of countries’ sociocultural attraction — indicators of the real and potential cross-border mobility of the population of the post-Soviet space — largely characterize the population’s actual personal interests and the level of their realization.

On average across the countries participating in the project, roughly one-third of the population declared that over the past five years they had visited at least one country within the CIS region. This indicator is highest in Moldova, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan where approximately every second person had visited a state in the post-Soviet space. Compared with 2014, the percentage of residents of Tajikistan who had visited other countries of the post-Soviet space dropped sharply (from 60% to 33%), after variations in public sentiment returned to the level of recent years. Russians’ “mobile interest” in countries of 28

Sociocultural attraction 

(10–20%]

Figure 13. Which of the listed countries have you visited in the last five years for personal, business, or tourism purposes? (Preferences within the CIS region, 2015)

(20–40%]

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia 12% 15%

16%

34%

26% Ukraine

Armenia

11%

30%

11%

Russia Uzbekistan

17% 34%

16%

Moldova

30%

16% 29%

30%

Kyrgyzstan

Turkmenistan 15% Kazakhstan

Tajikistan

the CIS region also fell sharply (from 27% to 18%). The lowest interest in cross-border mobility with respect to the CIS was recorded in Ukraine (14%) and Georgia (8%).

In Moldova, roughly one in five residents older than 18 visited at least one European Union country (Romania, in most cases) in the last five years. This is a consistently noticeably higher figure than for other countries participating in the project. Compared to other countries, Belarus also registered a rather high figure for visits to EU countries (17%).

Within the post-Soviet space, the main destination of cross-border mobility is Russia. The Russian Federation was the destination for the largest share of visits from nearly all countries, while Ukraine was the main destination for Belarus, Moldova, and Russia (Fig. 13), but the percentage of visits shrank in comparison with last year.

Educational attractiveness of other countries

As has been previously recorded in past waves of the EDB Integration Barometer, based on the indicator of the attractiveness of the educational services market, the post-Soviet space does not possess competitive advantages over the European Union or the most frequently mentioned countries in the “rest of the world.”

In 2015, the highest level of educational interest in the “Countries of the CIS region” 29

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

cluster was recorded in Tajikistan (63%). In Kazakhstan, interest in education within the post-Soviet space is approximately the same as the level of responses indicating “European Union countries” and “Countries of the rest of the world” (26% versus 28% and 32%, respectively). Armenia and Belarus have seen a decline in educational interest in the CIS region (from 26% to 15% and from 15% to 7%, respectively, in 2014 and 2015).

In the 2015 survey, countries of the European Union were mentioned more often that others as preferable in educational plans by respondents from Georgia (53%), Armenia (43%), Ukraine (42%), and Moldova (38%). According to Georgia’s population, the most popular countries are Great Britain and Germany, in Armenia they are Germany and France, and in Moldova they are Romania and Italy.

In 2015, Russia saw a substantial reduction in the orientation toward European Union countries as preferred destinations for receiving an education (from 46% to 25%).

Belarus experienced a similar reduction.

In all of the other countries of the CIS region, interest in receiving an education in European Union countries has grown. For example, in Tajikistan, interest in receiving an education in Germany grew over the year from 7% to 18%, and Tajikistanis’ educational interest in Great Britain rose from 5% to 15%.

More than others, the preferences of the residents of Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, and Tajikistan are directed beyond the CIS region and the European Union. In Kyrgyzstan, the total share of “Other countries” responses is greater than the share of responses from the other two. Tajikistanis’ educational interest in this cluster continues to decline.

Among the specific countries located outside the post-Soviet space and the European Union, residents of Armenia, Georgia, and Belarus prioritize receiving an education in the United States, residents of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan prefer China and the United States, residents of Kyrgyzstan prefer the United States and Turkey, and the residents of Ukraine prefer the United States (see Fig. 14).

We should note that young people up to 25 years old in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine most often give preference to receiving an education in European Union countries. However, the young population of Tajikistan is more oriented toward education in the countries of the CIS region.

On average across the countries, roughly one-third of the population is not considering any international education option (for themselves or their children). The highest percentages of educational “autonomists” are found in Russia (67%) and Belarus (63%), while the lowest level is seen in Tajikistan (14%).

In general, if you do not count Russia, the post-Soviet space is not overly attractive as a location for receiving an education. The percentage of mentions of the other countries of the CIS region did not exceed 4%. Over the last year, the attractiveness of receiving an education in Russia rose in Kazakhstan (from 19% to 24%), is growing consistently in Tajikistan after a small decline in 2014, and remains at the same level in Kyrgyzstan (29%). Conversely, this figure decreased again in Belarus (from 13% to 6%).

In general, sociocultural ties may be described by the following patterns: 30

Sociocultural attraction 

2012

2013

2015

2014

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Belarus

80

80

80

70

70

70

60

60

60

50

50

50

40

40

40 30

26 28

20

20

19

14

10 0

30 20

12

21

21

14

19

13

19

17

10 Turkey

Great Britain

United States

0

Georgia

20 12

30 20

United States

France

Kazakhstan 80

80

70

70

70

60

60

60

50

50

50

40

40

40

30 32 30

32 30

26

23

27 30

30

20

20

10

10

0

80

United States

Great Britain

Germany

Moldova

0

80

27 19

24

23 14 14

20

Russia

United States

Great Britain

Russia

0

80

60

60

60

50

50

50

40

40

40

20

20

18

30

14

18

15

10 0

Russia

Other countries of the EU

10

14

Great Britain

20

19

Turkmenistan

14

15 16

Great Britain

12

Germany

10 9

4

United States

0

Uzbekistan

70

70

70

60

60

60

50

50

50

40

40

40

20

11

10 0

Russia

United States

11 Turkey

20

21

25

30

18 17

17 15

10 0

16 14 13

Turkey

Tajikistan

59 45 44 27

19 20

Russia

United States

12 13 11 China

Ukraine 80

30

United States

10

80

28

Russia

20

80

30

26 16 14

30

23

10 0

United States

10

70

23

28 29

20

70

26

Germany

45

30

16 13

70

30

Great Britain

11 8 12

Kyrgyzstan

80

30

17 14 14

10 0

Germany

18 19 16

Figure 14.

Please indicate which of the listed countries you would like to travel to for educational purposes (or send your children to for educational purposes)? (Top 3 in each country, in %)

26

22 22

20

21 19 20

17

21

14

10 Russia

United States

Great Britain

0

Great Britain

Germany

Other countries of the EU

31

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

• The entire central Asian subregion (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) shows the greatest cultural preference for the post-Soviet space.

• An orientation toward the European Union is dominant in three countries (Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine). However, Moldova has a high percentage of respondents culturally oriented toward the CIS region.

• The “Other countries” cluster is preferred by the population of Azerbaijan (oriented toward Turkey).

• Finally, in the sociocultural sphere, the populations of Armenia, Belarus, and Russia (EAEU member states) manifest a remarkable diversity of preferences (expressing equal sympathies for countries of the CIS region, European Union, and the “rest of the world”) and an elevated level of orientation toward autonomy.

The changes over the last year are small for most countries (except for Ukraine), but the gradual accumulation of these changes will lead to a fundamental shift in countries’ positions in sociocultural preferences. Overall, these changes match the trends in economic preferences.

32

General attraction indicators 

General attraction indicators To generalize the data about the integration preferences of the populations of the countries participating in the EDB Integration Barometer project, we calculate several groups of composite indices that reflect the overall strength of the “attraction” of these countries to other countries and thus describe the integration orientations of the countries of the post-Soviet space as a whole (more on that in the full version of the analytical report).

The special attraction indices for individual topics have been converted to general attraction indices for country clusters. Figure 15 shows the values of the general attraction indices similarly to how it was done for the individual questions in the previous sections of this analytical summary.

As can be seen, across the three components — politics, economics, and culture — the post-Soviet space remains the top attraction vector for a relative majority of countries of the CIS region, and the political factor is key for this arrangement. Based on the 2015 survey, the populations of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are predominantly oriented toward the post-Soviet space. According to the data from past waves of the EDB Integration Barometer, we could also add Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (where the survey was not conducted in 2015) to this group.

The citizens of the remaining five countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and Russia) participating in the research exhibit very diverse integration sentiments but with a predominantly lower level of attraction to the CIS region.

For example, Azerbaijan’s population is primarily oriented toward Turkey (“other countries”), although with a persistently remarkable level of attraction to the CIS region.

Ukraine has established a trend of increasing preferences for European Union countries while maintaining highly diverse geopolitical orientations and a high level of preference for autonomy.

The integration positions of Russia, Georgia, and Moldova are essentially undefined and have multiple orientations. These countries belong to a zone of uncertainty, although Georgia and Moldova maintain a slight preference for the European Union while Russia leans toward the CIS region and the countries of the “rest of the world” (China, in particular).

We must also note the high level of preferences for autonomy, which are characteristic of the populations of Russia and Ukraine and have grown significantly over the last year in Moldova and Belarus.

Thus, we may state that the populations of former Soviet states currently demonstrate four types of strategic integration orientations: 1) Predominantly oriented toward the CIS region (for example, Kyrgyzstan).

2) Predominantly oriented toward European Union countries (for example, Ukraine).

3) Preferentially oriented toward other countries, i. e. the “rest of the world” (for example, Azerbaijan).

4) Lacking a dominant orientation (for example, Russia).

33

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Figure 15. General attraction indices for groups of countries (geopolitical clusters) (Responses grouped by four attraction vectors, in %)

Interest in countries of the CIS region: 80

2012

2013

2014

2015

70 60

43 43 44 40

50 40 30

30 26 28 28

32 33

20

40 24 22

42 38

35 35 33 23

44

51 50 46 46 45 48 47 49 49 49

39

60

56 41 41

48

40

30 30 29

27 27 27

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

17 15 15

17 20 18 17

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

13 16 12 10

12 9 11 16

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in countries of the European Union: 80

2012

2013

2014

2015

70 60 50 40 30

27 26 24

20

22 21 21 20 20

27 30

33 32 33 33 32 33 30 32 30 30 28 29

23 26

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

15 18 15

19

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Interest in “other countries”: 80 70

2012

2013

2014

2015

60 50 40 30

25 25

27 30

20

23 22 22 22 21 23 23 26

35 32

39 39 41

31 29

16 18 18 16

16

21

26 26 25 24 27 28 22 28

16 19

33 36 23 22

31 31 28

29

10 0

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

11 7 12 11

13

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

No interest in any country clusters (“autonomy”): 80 70

2012

2013

2014

2015

60 50 40 30 20

23 20

18 20

10

18 12 15 15

21

14

20 20

11 13 14

19

13 10 11 14

15 12 17 15

Georgia

Armenia

15 15 15

7

16 13

4 5 6 6

13 10 8

13

0 Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

Moldova

Azerbaijan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Each country in the post-Soviet space is positioned along the dominant attraction vector based on the results of each wave of the EDB Integration Barometer.

In Table 3, based on the composite attraction indices, countries are grouped by their preferred geopolitical vectors for each year. This makes it possible to analyse how these positions are changing. According to Table 3, most countries have maintained their dominant attraction vectors over the four years of monitoring.

However, in Georgia, Moldova, and to some extent Russia, the picture is unsta34

General attraction indicators 

ble, which suggests that the various integration orientations are engaged in a certain “struggle” with different vectors prevailing (somewhat) in different years (see Table 3).

The change in the configuration of integration sentiments (geopolitical attraction) in countries, representing different types of countries based on integration orientation priorities, is presented in the diagrams below (Fig. 16). To minimize the influence of shifts in indicators resulting from, among other things, the organizational and methodological characteristics of the surveys, and to facilitate a proper comparison of all 12 countries, the indicator values have been averaged over the periods 2012–2013 and 2014–2015. The visual summary of integration sentiments presented in the diagrams below vividly depicts the cross-country differences in the dominant attraction vectors (the index values presented in Figure 15 have been divided by 100 here).

2012–2013 2014–2015 Kyrgyzstan

Ukraine CIS region

Autonomy

CIS region

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1 0

European Union

Autonomy

Rest of the world

0.1 0

European Union

Rest of the world

Azerbaijan

Russia CIS region

Autonomy

Figure 16. Changes in general geopolitical attraction indices for country clusters

CIS region

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1 0

Rest of the world

European Union

Autonomy

0.1 0

European Union

Rest of the world

35

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

Table 3. Grouping of countries based on their preferred geopolitical vectors

Attraction vector Countries of the CIS region

European Union countries

Other countries Undefined

2012

2013

Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Moldova

Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan

Russia Ukraine Azerbaijan Georgia

2014

2015

Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan

Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan [Uzbekistan]

Moldova Georgia Russia Ukraine

Georgia Ukraine

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan

[Azerbaijan]

Moldova Russia

Georgia Moldova Russia

Indicators of mutual attraction among countries of the CIS region

Besides recording dominant vectors of integration orientations, it is no less interesting and important to analyse the mutual attraction of countries in the post-Soviet space, without considering the attraction of other countries. Moreover, for the participating countries we have recorded the population’s bilateral (rather than unilateral) interest.

Table 4 shows the values of non-symmetrized (original) mutual attraction indices for the countries of the post-Soviet space. The table shows which countries of the post-Soviet space were chosen most often as preferred (attractive) by all other countries participating in the project6. To minimize the influence of shifts in the indicators and to properly compare the countries, the indicator values have been averaged over two years (2014– 2015).

We can see that the greatest mutual attraction in the latest surveys of 2014–2015 has been demonstrated by residents of the three original members of the EAEU: Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (Table 4). In the very first waves of the EDB Integration Barometer, this group of mutually selecting countries also included Ukraine, but by 2015 Ukraine had entirely withdrawn from the integration nucleus. The unifying influence of the EAEU, on one hand, and the divisive effect of the Russian–Ukrainian crisis, on the other, are also gradually leading to more rigid lines of integration in the public’s consciousness.

The most frequently mentioned (preferred) country among all the countries of the post-Soviet space is Russia. Respondents from Georgia were the sole exception. Among the countries of the post-Soviet space, their responses most often included Ukraine. It is remarkable that in the period between the 2012–2013 and the 2014–2015 waves, the average mentions of Russia as an attractive country fell in Moldova and Ukraine but grew in Belarus.

6

The data is presented by columns, i. e. along the vertical we have the weighted average percentages of the row-countries’ mentions in the column-country.

36

General attraction indicators 

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

0%

9%

10%

5%

2%

4%

8%

2%

7%

3%

9%

6%

6%

2%

4%

11%

1%

5%

3%

3%

16%

4%

7%

25%

4%

6%

13%

4%

2%

4%

5%

2%

5%

10%

15%

4%

16%

14%

16%

5%

4%

8%

8%

7%

2%

7%

2%

4%

5%

60%

45%

14%

6%

2%

9%

2%

1

Azerbaijan

2

Armenia

0%

3

Belarus

3%

2%

4

Georgia

14%

9%

8%

5

Kazakhstan

6%

1%

16%

2%

6

Kyrgyzstan

2%

0%

7%

1%

11%

7

Moldova

3%

1%

7%

2%

4%

2%

8

Russia

15%

44%

44%

12%

49%

48%

35%

9

Tajikistan

2%

0%

6%

1%

4%

3%

4%

7%

10

Turkmenistan

3%

0%

7%

1%

4%

3%

4%

5%

6%

11

Uzbekistan

3%

0%

7%

1%

8%

5%

4%

7%

7%

12

Ukraine

9%

2%

12%

20%

4%

2%

13%

8%

2%

Turkmenistan

Table 4. Mutual attraction indicators in 2014–2015 (weighted average percentages of countries’ mentions in the 12 “supporting” questions)

2% 4%

In Russia, Kazakhstan is second to Belarus in terms of the frequency of mentions, having replaced Ukraine as an ally and integration partner in the minds of Russians.

Overall, we note that the crisis in Russian–Ukrainian relations has, undoubtedly, affected public opinion in countries of the post-Soviet space in terms of likely integration vectors.

However, the level of replaced sympathies/antipathies is not so significant and in various countries amounts to between 2–3% and 12–15% of the population (if, of course, you exclude the population of Russia and Ukraine where the trend is substantially more notable).

At any rate, the high level of public support for participation in the EAEU in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus, which comprise the EAEU’s “integration nucleus,” and the high level of support for Eurasian economic integration from the EAEU’s new members (Armenia and Kyrgyzstan), are a stabilizing factor. However, the Eurasian Economic Union (as represented by its member states, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and other EAEU institutions) would be wise to expend greater efforts on improving the longterm stability of the Eurasian integration project and its internal and external attractiveness — not only economically, militarily, and politically but also scientifically, educationally, culturally, and in general humanitarian aspects, especially among youth.

37

EDB Integration Barometer – 2015 

General conclusions Based on the results of the fourth wave of the EDB Integration Barometer, we can make a few general conclusions.

1. The populations of the countries of the CIS region are exposed to serious competition from various attraction vectors and various integration projects. A result of this competition is that virtually no country (except perhaps for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) at present has an overwhelming preference for the target of its integration convergence. On the contrary, the public has diverse integration orientations.

2. Among all of the countries of the post-Soviet space, an “integration nucleus” of countries has formed where, with all the differing views, there still prevails attraction to the countries of the CIS region, the feeling that these countries are friendly, and the intention to expand cooperation with them (militarily, politically, economically, and culturally).

This nucleus includes primarily the countries of the central Asian subregion (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) as well as Belarus and Armenia. We note that this nucleus includes four of the five countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), e. g. to some extent we can say that the EAEU currently has a substantial societal base of support and stability.

3. The populations of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine exhibit a dominant attraction to countries outside the CIS region: to countries of the European Union (mainly Ukraine), the United States (Georgia and Ukraine), and Turkey (Azerbaijan).

Moreover, integration orientations in Azerbaijan have been stable through all the years of the survey. In Ukraine, “pro-European” sentiments have strengthened, and “pro-Eurasian” sentiments have dropped sharply. Georgia and Moldova exhibit notable shifts in public opinion with a weakening Eurasian (post-Soviet) vector.

4. The integration sentiments of the population of Russia have special significance in the current situation. Russia is the obvious centre of attraction for many residents of most countries of the CIS region, and the citizens of these countries support cooperation with Russian in various areas, expressing serious economic and cultural interest in it. However, the Russian population is substantially divided in its integration priorities: The country’s public opinion is split equally among different integration orientations (“CIS region,” “European Union,” and “Rest of the world”), and “autonomist” (anti-integration) sentiments are extremely widespread. The opinions of a significant part of the population of Russia demonstrate concern about potential growth in the immigration of residents of countries of Central Asia as a result of increased integration, and while they steadfastly support the creation of the EAEU, they do not yet feel concrete benefits. Similar sentiments are becoming more widespread among the citizens of two other integration engines (Kazakhstan and Belarus).

5. The results of the fourth wave have confirmed the long-recognized age differentiation of the populations’ integration orientations. The young people of nearly every CIS country are noticeably less likely than the adult population to choose the Eura38

General conclusions 

sian vector in their economic and cultural preferences. The cross-generational gap is especially large in the European CIS countries (Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine).

6. An analysis of the data reveals that in large countries (such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine) there is a domestic territorial differentiation of the population’s integration sentiments. In Russia, the level of this differentiation is lower than in the two other countries mentioned: the general information field within the Russian Federation supports the similarity of its citizens’ integration orientations amid very minor differences. The differences are greater in Kazakhstan, but also do not exceed the critical level. But in Ukraine, a substantial territorial differentiation of the population’s integration preferences has been identified: “West and Centre” and “East and South.”

39

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Comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic effect of different forms of intensive economic cooperation by Ukraine with the member states of the Customs Union and the Single Economic Space within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) The main goal of the project is to assess a macroeconomic effect of the creation of the Customs Union and Single Economic Space of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, and to determine prospects of the development of integration links between Ukraine and the CU. The project was conducted by the team of five research institutions. The results presented in the Report have been widely recognized and

become standard.

Available in Russian and English.

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/projectsandreportsCIS/ ukraine/

Studies of Regional Integration in the CIS and in Central Asia: A Literature Survey

Monitoring of Mutual Investments in the Member States of the CIS The monitoring of mutual CIS investments provides analytical support for work conducted by state and supranational agencies on developing a suitable strategy for deepening integration processes throughout the post-Soviet space.

The Centre in partnership with IMEMO (RAS) has created and is regularly updating the most comprehensive database up to date.

Available in Russian and English http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/invest_monitoring/

Customs Union and cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia Research on the economic effects of the development of industrial relations under the influence of the Customs Union in the border regions of Russia and Kazakhstan.

This report, published under auspices of the EDB Centre for Integration Studies, summarizes both international studies in the area of regional integration within the former Soviet Union and Russian language materials on this issue, reviewing the research papers and publications in the area of economics, political studies, international relations and international political economy, law and area studies.

Available in Russian and English.

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/kaz_rus_e/

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/CIS_CentralAsia/

Unified trade policy and addressing the modernization challenges of the SES

Assessment of the economic, institutional and legal impact of labour migration agreements within the framework of the Single Economic Space

The Report presents an analysis of the key economic risks arising under the agreement by SES participants of a foreign trade policy, formulates proposals on the main thrusts of SES Common Trade Policy, and names measures for its reconciled implementation.

The project included analysis of two labour agreements that came into force on January 1, 2012 within the SES of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. It analyzes their economic and social inpact on labour migration processes, labour market and productivity, strengthening of the regional economic relations. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/labour_migration/

EDB integration barometer 2012 The EDB Centre for Integration Studies in cooperation with the Eurasian Monitor International Research Agency examined the approaches of population to regional integration.

Available in Russian and English http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/integration_barometer/

Threats to public finances of the CIS in the light of the current global instability (in Russian) The Report deals with the assessment of the risks for the government finances of the CIS countries in the light of current world instability.

The report was conducted at the request of the Finance Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and presented at the permanent council of the CIS Finance Ministers. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/risks/

http://eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/projectsandreportsCIS/trade_policy/

SES+ Grain policy Growth in grain production is propelling Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia to the leadership ranks of the global grain market. The Report systematically analyzes trends in development of the grain sector and actual policies and regulations in SES countries, Ukraine and other participants of the regional grain market. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/grain_policy/

Technological Сoordination and Improving Competitiveness within the SES The report presents a number of proposals aimed at improving SES competitiveness within the international division of labour. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/technological_coordination/

Cooperation between 27 cross-border regions of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine has significant potential; however the existing frontiers and barriers are a significant factor that fragments the region’s economic space.

The report proposes a broad spectrum of approaches to the fostering of deep and pragmatic integrational interaction between the CU/SES and countries throughout the Eurasian continent.

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/project16/

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/cu_and_neighbors/

Labour Migration and Human Capital of Kyrgyzstan: Impact of the Customs Union

Customs Union and Ukraine: Economic and technological cooperation in sectors and industries

The report focuses on the effects of Kyrgyzstan’s possible accession to the Customs Union (CU) and Single Economic Space (SES) on the flows of labour resources, the volume of cash remittances, labour market conditions and professional education and training in this country.

The authors of the report study the issue of industrial and inter-industry links between the SES economies and Ukraine and come to a conclusion that cooperation between enterprises has been maintained in practically all segments of the processing industries, while in certain sectors of mechanical engineering this cooperation has no alternatives.

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/labor_migration_ kyrgyzstan_cu/

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/project18/

Tajikistan’s Accession to the Customs Union and Single Economic Space Tajikistan’s accession to the CU and the SES will have a positive economic impact on the country’s economy. The Report includes a detailed economic analysis of the issue using various economic models and research methods.

Monitoring of direct investments of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in Eurasia Monitoring of direct investMents of Belarus, KazaKhstan, russia and uKraine in eurasia RepoRt 19 2013

The Eurasia FDI Monitoring project supplements another research by the EDB Centre for Integration Studies —Monitoring of Mutual Foreign Investment in the CIS Countries (CIS Mutual Investment Monitoring).

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/Tajikistan_CU_ SES/

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/project19/

Monitoring of Mutual Investments in the CIS

Armenia and the Customs Union: Impact of Accession

The report contains new results of the joint research project of the Centre for Integration Studies of EDB and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. It is aimed at the maintenance and development of the monitoring database of mutual direct investment in the CIS countries and Georgia. A general characteristic of mutual investments in the CIS at the end of 2012 is provided.

ARMENIA AND THE CUSTOMS UNION: IMPACT OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION RepoRt 20 2013

This report provides the assessment of the macroeconomic impact of Armenia joining the Customs Union. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/project20/

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/

System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration

EDB Integration Barometer — 2013 The EDB Centre for Integration Studies in cooperation with the Eurasian Monitor International Research Agency examined the approaches of population to regional integration. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/integration_barometer/

SyStem of IndIcatorS of euraSIan IntegratIon II

The System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration (SIEI) is designed to become the monitoring and assessment tool for integration processes within the post-Soviet territory. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/siei/ index.php?id_16=37610

EDB CENTRE FOR INTEGRATION STUDIES PUBLICATIONS

Cross-Border Cooperation between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine

Order printed versions of reports: http://airoplan.ru/shop/category/doklady-en

The Customs Union and Neighbouring Countries: Models and Instruments for Mutually Beneficial Partnership

EDB CENTRE FOR INTEGRATION STUDIES PUBLICATIONS

Quantifying Economic Integration: of the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union: Methodological Approaches QUANTIFYING ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION: METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES RepoRt 23 2014

The objective of the project is to discuss and analyse economic integration in Eurasia, both on the continental scale “from Lisbon to Shanghai,” and in the EU-EEU dimension “from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”

Monitoring of direct investments of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine in Eurasia — 2014

Centre for IntegratIon StudIeS

MONITORING OF DIRECT INVESTMENTS OF RUSSIA, BELARUS, KAZAKHSTAN AND UKRAINE IN EURASIA 2014

report 28 2014

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/project21/

http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/project24/

Pension Mobility within the Eurasian Economic Union and the CIS

ЦЕНТР ИНТЕГРАЦИОННЫХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ

МОБИЛЬНОСТЬ ПЕНСИЙ

в рамках Евразийского экономического союза и СНГ

ДОКЛАД № 24 2014

In the report the experts evaluate the prospects of implementing effective mechanisms in the region to tackle pension problems of migrant workers. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/project24/

An Assessment of the Economic Effects of Lifting Non-Tariff Barriers in the EEU

CentRe foR IntegRatIon StudIeS

ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF REDUCING NON-TARIFF BARRIERS IN THE SES RepoRt 29 2015

EDB Integration Barometer — 2014 Centre for IntegratIon StudIeS

EDB INTEGRATION BAROMETER 2014 Analytical Summary report 25 2014

The results of the third research into preferences of the CIS region population with respect to various aspects of Eurasian integration suggest that the “integration core” of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) continues to form and crystallise. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/integration_barometer/index.php?id_16=42460

An Assessment of the Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers in the EEU: the Results of the Survey of Eхporters

Centre for IntegratIon StudIeS

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NON-TARIFF BARRIERS IN THE EEU: RESULTS OF ENTERPRISE SURVEYS

Monitoring of mutual CIS investments 2014

Centre for IntegratIon StudIeS

MONITORING OF MUTUAL INVESTMENTS IN THE CIS 2014

report 26 2014

This is the fifth report on the results of the longterm research project devoted to monitoring of mutual direct investments in the CIS countries and Georgia. The current report provides detailed information on the scope and structure of mutual investments of CIS countries up to the end of 2013. The report provides information on the most important trends in the first half of 2014, including the situation in Ukraine and its impact on the Russian direct investments in the country. It also presents an analysis of the prospects for mutual direct investments of the Eurasian Economic Union countries. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/invest_monitoring/ index.php?id_16=42737

EDB Regional Integration Database Центр интеграЦионных исследований

БАЗА ДАННЫХ РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЙ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ: СОСТАВ И ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ Методический отчет

доклад № 27 2014

This is an applied research project, which represents the creation of a specialized regularly updated database of the most significant regional integration organisations (RIOs) and economic/ trade agreements of the world. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/ projectsandreportsCIS/project26/

The EDB Centre for Integration Studies publishes the first comprehensive assessment of the effects of non-tariff barriers on mutual trade in the EEU and provides recommendations as to how to remove them. The report has been prepared by the Centre for Integration Studies based on a poll of 530 Russian, Kazakh and Belarusian exporters http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/projectsandreportsCIS/index. php?id_4=47863&linked_block_id=0

report 30 2015

Order printed versions of reports: http://airoplan.ru/shop/category/doklady-en

The second report presents new results of the permanent annual project dedicated to monitoring of direct investments of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in Eurasia.

On the basis of the statistics collected during monitoring, detailed information is provided on the dynamics, actual geographical location and sectoral structure of the investments.

A large-scale poll of 530 enterprises in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia suggests that non-tariff barriers account 15% to 30% of the value of exports. Belarusian exporters estimate non-tariff barriers in their trade with Russia and Kazakhstan at 15% of the value of their exports, Kazakh exporters at 16% for exports to Russia and 29% for exports to Belarus, and Russian exporters at about 25% for exports to each of the two other countries. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/projectsandreportsCIS/index. php?id_4=47864&linked_block_id=0

CentRe foR IntegRatIon StudIeS

MONITORING OF MUTUAL INVESTMENTS IN THE CIS 2015 RepoRt 32 2015

Monitoring of Mutual Investments in CIS Countries 2015 According to the sixth report of a years-long research project in 2014 the fall in mutual foreign direct investments (FDI) between the CIS countries was $6.3 billion, or 12% year-on-year.

One of the main causes for this drastic decline in all mutual FDI in the CIS was the destabilised economic and political situation in Ukraine. At the same time, while overall investment activity in the CIS has shrunk, the young integration organization – the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – demonstrates stability. Even despite the devaluation of national currencies, mutual FDI in the EAEU region in 2014 grew from $24.8 billion to $25.1 billion. The positive dynamics in investment flows in the EAEU was largely due to the advancement and strengthening of regional economic integration. http://www.eabr.org/e/research/ centreCIS/projectsandreportsCIS/ index.php?id_4=48979&linked_block_ id=0

http://eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/monographsCIS/

Holding-Together Regionalism: Twenty Years of Post-Soviet Integration (Euro-Asian Studies) Alexander Libman, Evgeny Vinokurov Basingtoke: Palgrave Macmillan An in-depth analysis of one of the most important and complex issues of the post-Soviet era, namely the (re-)integration of this highly interconnected region. The book considers the evolution of “holding-together” groups since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, looking at intergovernmental interaction and informal economic and social ties. http://eabr.org/e/research/centreCIS/monographsCIS/

EDB CENTRE FOR INTEGRATION STUDIES PUBLICATIONS

“Vinokurov and Libman have pulled together a tremendous range of information and insight about Eurasian economic integration. Their eminently readable book tackles an important and timely topic, which lies at the heart of global economic and political transformation in the 21st century.”

Johannes Linn, Brookings Institute

Order printed versions of reports: http://airoplan.ru/shop/category/doklady-en

Eurasian Integration: Challenges of Transcontinental Regionalism Evgeny Vinokurov, Alexander Libman Basingtoke: Palgrave Macmillan

ISBN: 978-5-906157-24-9

9 785906 157249

Saint Petersburg 2015