COVID-19
LOCKDOWN 2 LUMINA INTELLIGENCE
LOCKDOWN WILL BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME AS THE UK HEADS BACK INTO LOCKDOWN FOR A SECOND TIME, LUMINA INTELLIGENCE CONSIDERS THE LIKELY IMPACT ON FOOD SHOPPING AND CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR, REFLECTING ON THE KEY TRENDS OF LOCKDOWN ONE.
INCREASED SHOPPING ONLINE FOR GROCERIES While there has been less strict advice for swathes of the population to ‘shield’, there will be many people keen to avoid going out to busy shops, as well as those wishing to plan ahead and secure grocery delivery slots given this became such a race in the first lockdown. Penetration of online grocery increased to four in 10 shoppers in April 2020, compared to just three in 10 in February 2019 and we predicted that grocery delivery would be a legacy behaviour coming out of the pandemic.
HOW WILL IT BE DIFFERENT? Through the spring and summer, many grocers significantly increased their online grocery capacity – Tesco for example more than doubled the number of delivery slots to more than 1.5 million a week. Greater capacity should mean there are enough slots to go around, although if panic buying sets in again then demand could well outpace even this increased supply.
1. STOCKPILING At the beginning of the first lockdown, shoppers were regularly faced with empty shelves and panic buying set in. The ‘stockpiling’ mission became a significant feature of shopping in supermarkets and online, accounting for 11% and 17% of shopper missions to these channels respectively in March 2020.
HOW WILL IT BE DIFFERENT? Over the summer, the stockpiling mission fell back to single
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digits, but we are seeing it creep back up again, particularly online, where it reached 14% in w/c 19 October. The level of stockpiling will be led by consumer fear of out of stocks and therefore the grocers – as well as the UK government – are sending a clear message that there will be enough food to go around provided the public shops sensibly, with some grocers already implementing limits on the number of items shoppers can buy in certain categories.
2. FOODSERVICE DELIVERY INCREASES SHARE After a slow start, foodservice delivery picked up pace throughout the first lockdown. Initially there was limited supply as most major operators closed their doors completely and many smaller foodservice operations didn’t have delivery capability. Over the months that followed, supply returned to the market with an increasing number of operators offering delivery, takeaway and drive thru services – ahead of the reopening of dine-in at the beginning of July. As a result of this additional capacity – and strong demand from consumers who were seemingly bored of home cooking – we saw delivery usage increase from an average of one meal a month (pre-pandemic) to around five (with a strong bias towards younger consumers).
HOW WILL IT BE DIFFERENT? Now that restaurants, pubs and cafes have established operating procedures taking account of social distancing and other safety restrictions, many more operators are able to continue to trade through the second lockdown. Due to the shutdown of most of hospitality, delivery & takeaway will
