Housing Industry News Vol. 5 Issue 1 - February 2021 by Housing First Minnesota

VOL. 5 ISSUE 1, FEB. 2021

THE MINNESOTA HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS SOURCE BY HOUSING FIRST MINNESOTA • HOUSINGINDUSTRYNEWS.ORG

We now sit at record-low housing inventory across the state of Minnesota, with home prices hitting new highs in every region. State housing advocates are working to address the issue during the 2021 session.

Inventory and affordability problem growing, housing INSIDE THIS ISSUE on the 2021 legislative agenda At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, some thought home prices may level off or even drop and that the inventory of homes for sale would finally grow. One year later we know that could not be further from the case. We now sit at record low housing inventory across the state of Minnesota, with home prices hitting new highs in every region. With the Minnesota legislature back in session, state housing advocates are turning their attention to legislative leaders to see how they will address Minnesota’s growing housing shortage and affordability crisis. The 2021 legislative session will be different The Minnesota Legislature convened on Jan. 5 to begin its two-year session. COVID-19 safety protocols influenced

the earliest days of session, keeping most meetings virtual and limiting attendance in committee meetings and floor sessions. The opening month of the 2021 session featured the traditional emphasis of a budget year, with state agency orientations and updates from organizations and trade groups active in the legislative process. The early portion of the session was also marked by the introduction of the governor’s budget, a key milestone in the legislature’s work. In subsequent months, the pace of activity will increase and the intensity surrounding issues will grow. Housing committee testimony Housing committees in both the House and Senate have heard from a variety of agency, nonprofit and industry stakeholders over the early weeks of session. The Senate Housing Finance and Policy

Committee received testimony from industry stakeholders in a late January hearing. Industry leaders shared updates on the remarkable rebound of the market in 2020, and also the inventory and affordability challenges impacting many homebuyers. David Siegel, executive director of Housing First Minnesota, cited inventory and affordability as two areas where the legislature must act. “We are only building about 65% of the homes necessary to supply our market, and those homes are being predominantly built at mid-level and higher price points,” said Siegel. He continued by sharing the challenges related to exclusionary policies that have compounded over the years in Minnesota,

CONTINUED >> PAGE 7

Lumber prices continue wild ride PAGE 10

REALTORS®: Inventory shortage continues to plague the Twin Cities housing market PAGE 11

New campaign looks to promote homeownership for everyone, everywhere PAGE 13

Six Minnesota homebuilders recognized as top energy-efficient builders in the nation Minnesota homebuilders continue to lead the nation in energy efficiency in 2020. According to an annual report by the Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET), six Minnesota builders who build more than 50 homes a year made the list of the top 20 builders nationwide with the lowest average Home Energy Rating System (HERS) Index scores.

Hanson Builders, Key Land Homes, OneTenTen Homes, Robert Thomas Homes, Lennar Minnesota and Bigelow Homes all made the list with HERS scores well below the average of 58. Five of the six builders are members of Housing First Minnesota and participate in Housing First Minnesota’s Green Path energy CONTINUED >> PAGE 12

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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2960 Centre Pointe Drive Roseville, MN 55113 HousingFirstMN.org

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PRESIDENT’S NOTE

Housing industry is ready for a strong 2021 Looking back, 2020 brought so many unexpected changes to our industry—it’s amazing to think of all that has transpired in the past year. For housing, we started strong, dropped steeply and then surged. We are fortunate to have experienced a V-shaped recovery. This is a testament to the demand for housing from Minnesotans across the state. Looking ahead, 2021 will continue to challenge us as we move through the COVID-19 era. Safety protocols will remain in place, and it’s very important that we all do our part to keep our customers and fellow members of the housing industry safe during this time. We all know that the labor market is tight and that supply chain issues will challenge us in 2021. We will also need to continue to innovate and find new ways to deliver for our

customers and trade partners. These items are critical because so many people are counting on us to have a productive 2021! We know Minnesotans want to own homes and that demand remains strong across the state. With historic interest rates, it’s a great time to build, remodel or purchase a home. We also know that our inventory of available homes is extremely low. This will put pressure on the entire housing market as it waits for our industry to build out more housing. That issue, building more homes, is key for all of us in 2021. Our industry knows the blueprint for how to supply the market, but it is going to take a special effort this year and beyond to make it happen. Housing First Minnesota is working with legislators and other key stakeholders to open our housing market so it can serve all of Minnesota.

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS February 2021, Volume 5, Issue 1 PUBLISHER David Siegel David@HousingFirstMN.org EDITOR Katie Elfstrom Katie@HousingFirstMN.org GRAPHIC DESIGN Emily Doheny ACCOUNTING Janice Meyer

Todd Polifka 2021 President, Housing First Minnesota

Let’s all pull together and create the opportunity of homeownership for everyone, everywhere.

ADVERTISING SALES Brad Meewes Kori Meewes CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Katie Elfstrom Katie@HousingFirstMN.org

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News Tips Have an idea for a story for our next issue? Contact Editor Katie Elfstrom at Katie@HousingFirstMN.org or send your story to Info@HousingIndustryNews.com

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3.15.2021

Housing Industry News is a publication of Housing First Minnesota. Housing Industry News is published and distributed six times per year to housing industry professionals and others associated with the homebuilding industry. Neither the advertisers, nor Housing First Minnesota, will be responsible or liable for misinformation, misprints, typographical errors, etc., herein contained. For address change information, contact Housing First Minnesota. Suggestions, ideas and letters are welcome. HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS 2960 Centre Pointe Drive Roseville, MN 55113 info@housingfirstmn.org www.HousingFirstMN.org Housing Industry News is published by Housing First Minnesota Entire contents copyright 2021 All rights reserved

SHARE YOUR HOUSING STORY Homeownership has become even more important to us in recent times. Home is a sanctuary, a safe place, a school, an office, and so much more. Homeownership is threatened in Minnesota, and it is more important than ever that we share the roadblocks that stand in the way of building new housing. Join us for a virtual Housing Day at the Capitol. The event will open with key messages and lobbying tips, followed by virtual meetings with your legislators. Share your voice to grow the opportunity of homeownership for everyone, everywhere.

Housing First Minnesota is the voice for homebuilders, remodelers and all who are dedicated to building safe, durable homes at a price Minnesotans can afford.

R E G I ST E R AT H O U S I N G DAY M N .O R G F R E E TO PA R T I C I PAT E ! THA N K YOU TO OU R 2021 SPON SOR S

Housing First Minnesota is dedicated to advancing the American dream of homeownership for Minnesotans and is the leading resource for housing-related issues in Minnesota. This advocacy work has never been more important. The housing industry remains under intense regulatory and political pressures that impact Minnesota homeowners’ ability to buy, build, and remodel their dream home. Housing First Minnesota supports reasonable policies, regulations and protections, but our call for affordability for families is a voice that must be heard. Learn more at HousingFirstMN.org.

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THE HOUSING BEAT

Across the country, there is much talk about housing HERE ARE SOME OF THE LATEST QUOTES ON THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY:

To prepare for the surge in renters and coming demographic changes, we need to increase the supply of affordable homes and better tailor these homes to the needs of future owners and renters through more flexible zoning and land use regulations.”

City planners control what sort of housing can be built—and where— through zoning and land-use laws. These central planners tell us where housing must be single-family or multi-family. They tell us if you're allowed to rent out one of your bedrooms to a non-relative. They tell us if you can build an auxiliary housing unit on your property.”

ROGER VALDEZ FORBES

RYAN MCMAKEN MISES INSTITUTE

LAURIE GOODMAN & JUN ZHU URBAN INSTITUTE

The only way to fix a deficit of supply is to build more homes, and to make it cheaper to build new housing."

There aren’t two problems at all, there is one, too much regulation squeezing housing production and vexing the operation of rental housing."

Skyrocketing home prices are the result of a massive policy failure at all levels of government.” URBAN REFORM INSTITUTE

We are in a really huge supply crunch. It becomes a cycle where people don't want to move because it's so difficult to buy a home, and then that in turn makes it even more difficult to buy a home because people aren't moving and freeing up inventory." DARYL FAIRWEATHER REDFIN CHIEF ECONOMIST

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REGULATORY AFFAIRS

March license renewal deadline approaching For about half of the state’s residential contractors, business licenses expire on March 31, meaning the renewal window is quickly approaching. Any renewal received after the deadline is subject to a $60 late fee. The March 31 deadline applies to business licensees and not the “Qualified” or “Q” licenses, which expire two years from their last issued date: “QB” for qualifying builder, “QC” for qualifying remodeler, and “QR” for qualifying roofer. Please note, for some license holders up for renewal in 2021, the individual’s deadline for completing their continuing education (CE)

is not always the same as the expiration date of the contractor’s business license. Qualifying person and CE credits The Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry (DLI) requires that every two years, the qualifying person for a building contractor or remodeler license must complete 14 hours of approved CE courses. Of the 14 hours, one hour must relate to business management and one hour must relate to the Minnesota energy codes.

Check CE status at secure.doli.state.mn.us/lookup/licensing.aspx If you have questions, contact DLI at dli.license@state.mn.us or 651-284-5034

Research indicates that in states where regulatory overlap is common and oversight is intense, housing costs rise dramatically.

Could greenhouse gas environmental review be coming to housing? For many of the state’s residential contractors, the renewal window for business licenses is quickly approaching.

New DLI commissioner named Temporary Commissioner Roslyn Robertson promoted Gov. Tim Walz appointed Roslyn Robertson, formerly the temporary commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry (DLI), to the permanent commissioner position on Jan. 22. "Roslyn Robertson's deep and broad experience in worker protection issues have prepared her well to lead during this unprecedented time," Walz said. "I am proud to appoint her to this critical role of keeping Minnesota workers safe and businesses strong as we continue to navigate the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic together." Commissioner Robertson is a familiar face to many in the industry, having spent more than three decades with the agency. Robertson has served as a deputy commissioner overseeing the agency operation areas of Apprenticeship, Construction Codes and Licensing, Labor Standards, Occupational Safety and Health, and Workers' Compensation, in addition to other leadership positions she has held within DLI. “Commissioner Robertson has already shown the industry that she understands the need to balance regulatory considerations with housing affordability,” said David Siegel, executive director of Housing First Minnesota. “Her decision to follow the recommendations of the administrative law judge and not open rulemaking on the residential energy code in December was welcomed and needed news for Minnesota’s homebuyers.”

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

Roslyn Robertson Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry Commissioner

Robertson was appointed temporary commissioner last year after former-Commissioner Nancy Leppink failed to be confirmed by the Minnesota Senate.

Minnesota state agencies seek expanded regulations for new subdivisions The Minnesota Environmental Quality Board is leading a multiagency effort to expand environmental review requirements on residential subdivisions. This draft proposal would require a plethora of regulators—local and state—to study the greenhouse gas emissions of new developments, including residential subdivisions. Developers would be required to disclose how they intend to offset the emissions caused by the new development. These proposed reviews are intended only to inform government entities, and not be used in project approval or denial. According to agency data, residential development accounts for 12% of environmental reviews in Minnesota. Industry association Housing First Minnesota has concerns with the proposed new environmental review requirements, citing Minnesota’s already highly efficient new homes and the high cost of housing in our region. “Minnesota produces the highest number of energy-efficient homes in the nation,” said Nick Erickson, director of research and regulatory affairs at Housing First Minnesota. “This is often lost on our government partners, as is the sharply rising cost of housing in the state.” Developers have often said that it’s not uncommon for two or more environmental regulators to demand mutually exclusive requirements or designs. This increases housing costs, while muddying the effectiveness of the policies put into place. “More often than not, the right hand doesn’t know or understand what the left hand is doing,” Erickson explained. “In Minnesota, multiple regulators oversee erosion control strategies, leading to confusion over who to listen to when state and local governments disagree on certain mutually exclusive requirements.” Research by the nonprofit Housing Affordability Institute, echoed by other academic research, indicates that in states where regulatory overlap is common and oversight is intense, housing costs rise dramatically.

REGULATORY UPDATE

Electrical code appeal, plumbing code corrections, construction waste, ICC process under scrutiny Electrical code: court challenge Housing First Minnesota has filed a challenge to the Minnesota Board of Electricity’s adoption of the 2020 National Electric Code with the Minnesota Court of Appeals. The industry association submitted its appeal to the court on Jan. 20. According to the filing, Housing First Minnesota’s challenge is based on procedural concerns laid out in the August 2020 administrative law hearing. Housing First Minnesota argues that the Board of Electricity did not produce an adequate Statement of Need and Reasonableness (SONAR), and did not give appropriate consideration to the cost of implementing the new code and its impact on homeownership. The Board of Electricity has 30 days to submit its reply to the challenge. Plumbing code: target late 2021/ early 2022 At its Jan. 19 meeting, the Minnesota Plumbing Board approved several technical corrections to the code. These corrections included adding a missing footnote reference, adjusting renumbering related to a Minnesota-specific amendment and addressing a

missing reference in the final section of the Plumbing Code. The Board’s attorney expects these to be the final changes before adoption of the Minnesota Plumbing Code, which is expected to be in March 2021 with a late December 2021 or early January 2022 effective date. Of particular note, Housing First Minnesota’s request to remove the dishwasher air gap was included in the code modifications and would become effective upon code adoption. Construction demolition landfill The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) is continuing its work to develop new rules for construction and demolition landfills, and advancing a program to reduce the amount of construction waste sent to these landfills. Work began on this in 2019 due to water quality concerns near demolition landfills. The waste diversion team plans to form six focus groups across Minnesota in an effort to better understand the current situation and incorporate feedback into development of the rules. Industry seeks International Code Council process changes A coalition of construction industry groups

have reached out to the International Code Council (ICC) demanding changes to the process used to end “political manipulation” of the model codes. For the bast several years, builders and code officials have grown increasingly frustrated with the role that product manufacturers’ groups are playing in the development of the model building codes. In a letter to the ICC, the National Association of Home Builders, Leading Builders of America, American Gas Association, American Wood Council and APA-The Engineered Wood Association all said they support moving away from the consensus-based current process, to a more formal structure. The American National Standards Institute (ANSI) committee-based process proposed by the coalition would result in a more balanced and cost-effective code development process, the coalition says. “The [current] process showed that the online vote allows for political manipulation of the outcome,” the letter states. “Changing to an ANSI process will eliminate this possibility and better ensure the results are representative of the broader ICC membership.” In 2020, online votes from non-industry ICC members in the final round resulted in

the passage of IECC code provisions that previously failed to pass the technical review of building experts, including code provisions that were out of scope and provisions that violated federal law. This story includes references to several emerging housing regulatory issues in development. Information was current at the time of printing.

Housing First Minnesota’s challenge is based on procedural concerns laid out in the August 2020 hearing.

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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HOUSING ON THE HILL

A homebuilder-turned-senator’s take on housing in Minnesota Q & A with Sen. Gene Dornink Dornink: Think about the first home you bought and how exciting it was. Having your own home gives us pride, responsibility, and a feeling of success and accomplishment. You have something you worked hard to obtain and a place for you and your family to live and grow. You become a part of a community, and you have a long-term commitment to that community. You put your roots down, and it’s your community. A thriving housing market allows for upward mobility and provides a stable tax base. You can’t have a thriving community without a thriving housing market. Starter homes, middle-class homes and wealthy homes allow for everyone to participate.

Sen. Gene Dornink (R, Hayfield)

Sen. Gene Dornink of Hayfield was recently elected to represent District 27, which includes Albert Lea and Austin as well as an area bordering Iowa. He is a lifelong Minnesotan who was raised on a family dairy farm. He spent his career working as a union carpenter and later started his own small residential construction business. Q: As a homebuilder, what have you seen as the benefits to homeownership?

Q: How important is it for the legislature to balance the costs of permits, codes and land regulations to keep affordable options for Minnesotans? Dornink: We see, over and over, added regulation and fees. It seems like the government, instead of telling you they are raising taxes, hide behind increased fees. They collect taxes to pay for government but then add additional fees, which the public doesn’t realize is a form of taxation. In the housing market, the government will increase the fees, and the builder is the only one who sees those fees, so they have to increase the cost of building the homes. We all pay in the end. It's not just the increase in fees; it's also the increase in regulations for electrical,

plumbing and other requirements. It all adds up to an increase in building our homes. Those of us in the housing market understand that they add regulations and fees but never reduce them. The people, who these regulations and fees affect, are never given a place at the table. It's time that the people, who these regulations affect, get to be a part of the decisions. I will work with all sides so everyone can participate. Q: The housing industry is experiencing a labor shortage— how can we attract more young

Minnesotans to all aspects of homebuilding and construction? Dornink: With my background, I hope I can be an advocate for the trades. I think the legislature in the next few sessions will need to put a higher emphasis on showing young people the trades side of the workforce. So much in the past has been “you have to go to a university to succeed.” I think that type of thinking is changing and will need some exposure through the legislature by putting the trades in front of young people to help them understand that they can succeed by going into the trades. I grew up in a period when the trades were a part of high school. Partnering with local groups and prioritizing educational spending for the trades would be a start. Our high schools and technical schools have been kicked to the back of the class, and it's time we put them front and center. We need to help those students who love the trades and want to be successful while staying in their communities.

Dornink spent his career working as a union carpenter and later started his own residential construction business.

Introducing the trades to the next generation

Under HF 127/SF 134, 16- and 17-year-olds would be permitted to work in or around a construction or building project.

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

Sen. Rich Draheim (Madison Lake) and Rep. Kristin Robbins (Maple Grove) are the chief authors of a bill that would allow 16- and 17-year-olds the opportunity to work in the trades. Skilled labor availability is one of the big issues keeping builders up at night. A new bill introduced at the legislature will help address this issue by introducing young people to the opportunities available in construction. Under HF 127/SF 134, 16- and 17-year-olds would be permitted to work in or around a construction or building project. This legislation would require, at a minimum, completion of OSHA 10 training before employment could begin. If signed into law, this legislation would bring Minnesota in line with federal guidelines and many other states that already have similar laws on the books.

CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1

Inventory and affordability problem growing, housing on the 2021 legislative agenda Housing legislation anticipated Housing committees in both the Senate and the House are expected to hear finance and policy proposals as the session moves forward. Industry leaders believe that, despite budget and logistical lobbying challenges, housing legislation will be discussed in 2021. “The focus is definitely going to be on the budget, but I expect that housing policy will be on the short list for many legislators,” said James Vagle, Housing First Minnesota’s vice president of advocacy. “With inventory challenges impacting homeownership access and the equity gap, we can expect zoning, permitting and infrastructure policy discussions.” Committee work is scheduled to continue through late March.

Industry leaders believe that, despite budget and logistical lobbying challenges, housing legislation will be discussed in 2021.

including zoning and approval processes that block many affordable homes from being built. “We must be allowed to build more homes at the starter home and first move-up level. These homes are the pathway to homeownership and are the basis for Minnesota beginning

to address our housing equity gap,” said Siegel. The testimony of Housing First Minnesota was buttressed by comments from the Minnesota Association of REALTORS® confirming through its data the massive shortfall in available product for sale.

Housing in the governor’s budget The governor and legislature begin the session facing the daunting task of building a budget while patching a large $1.2 billion deficit, according to the state’s November forecast. Gov. Walz introduced his budget in late January with a focus on COVID-19 recovery. The overall budget proposal came in at $52.4 billion over the two-year budget period. This figure represents a spending increase of $1.3 billion when compared to the current biennial budget. As it relates to housing investments, the governor’s budget recommends $250 million in appropriation bonds: $100 million in housing infrastructure bonds at Minnesota Housing and $150 million in redevelopment appropriation bonds at the Department of Employment and Economic Development. In addition to the housing investments, Walz is recommending increases to several existing programs aimed at homebuyer education and affordable homeownership. The budget proposal will be reviewed by the legislature, which will work on a budget proposal of its own to send the governor by session adjournment in mid-May.

Federal update: Biden forwards HUD nomination, extends eviction moratorium Following his election, President Joe Biden announced his nominee to lead the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Rep. Marcia Fudge from Ohio. Pending her confirmation from the U.S. Senate, Fudge would be the second Black woman to serve as HUD secretary, and the first in more than 40 years, since former President Jimmy Carter’s administration. Biden made a point of promising a diverse cabinet if elected, and his appointments prove he’s delivering on that pledge. Matthew Ammon is serving as HUD’s acting secretary until Fudge’s Senate confirmation. On Jan. 20, Biden’s first day in office, his administration made a request to HUD to extend its foreclosure and eviction moratorium on federally backed single-family mortgages through the end of March 2021. The next day, HUD announced that the administration’s request had been implemented. According to HUD, “the moratorium prohibits servicers from initiating or

proceeding with foreclosure and foreclosure-related eviction actions for HUD insured or guaranteed single family forward and reverse mortgages, except for those secured by legally vacant and abandoned properties. Further, HUD requires mortgage servicers to provide up to six months of COVID-19 forbearance when a borrower experiencing a financial hardship due to COVID-19 requests this assistance, and up to an additional six months of COVID-19 forbearance for a borrower who requests an extension of the initial forbearance.” As COVID-19 nears its one-year mark in America, the HUD action attempts to address the challenging impacts felt by many families throughout the country. Many observers have also noted that this action is a step toward avoiding the cascading effects felt in 2008 when evictions and foreclosures surged. “Millions of Americans are at risk of eviction or foreclosure because of the COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic crisis, and the Biden

“Millions of Americans are at risk of eviction or foreclosure because of the COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic crisis, and the Biden Administration is pursuing a comprehensive strategy to prevent widespread housing loss." Matthew Ammon

ACTING SECRETARY OF HUD

Administration is pursuing a comprehensive strategy to prevent widespread housing loss. As we have seen throughout the pandemic, this looming wave of evictions and foreclosures disproportionately impacts communities of color. These executive actions are a critical first step to ensure that families hit hard by the economic crisis will not be forced from their homes during their time of need,” said Ammon.

Rep. Marcia Fudge (DFL, Ohio)

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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MARKET REPORT

Housing market report Minnesota housing market shows strength going into 2021 Homebuilding in Minnesota ended the year on a high note. After pandemic-related economic woes in early spring, single-family homebuilding saw a surge throughout the summer and fall months. Homebuyers, fueled by low mortgage interest rates and a sudden need for new space, flooded the market. Single-family construction in December was the best on record since 2005. However, rising home prices and depleting inventory are keeping the market extremely competitive among buyers and continue to elevate the affordability challenge.

State of Minnesota

Moorhead

120 SOURCE: CITY OF MOORHEAD

30,753

Duluth

103

Year-to-Date Housing Units

Through December, 2020 SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

St. Cloud

117 SOURCE: CITY OF ST. CLOUD

Twin Cities

21,408

Mankato

315

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

Rochester

477

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS. HOUSING FIRST MINNESOTA COLLECTED THE ABOVE PERMIT INFORMATION FROM AVAILABLE PUBLIC RESOURCES.

DEC. 2020

$307,000

$277,000

DEC. 2019

+10%

+10.4%

$279,000

DEC. 2019

$251,000

2019

$279,000

$251,000

Twin Cities Median Sales Price

Minnesota Median Sales Price

SOURCE: MINNEAPOLIS REALTORS

SOURCE: MINNESOTA REALTORS

Twin Cities Construction Employment Past 5 Months

United States

South - 76

SOURCE: DEED

Midwest - 79

Northeast - 81

Regional Remodeling Market Indices, 2020 Q4 SOURCE: NAHB

The Overall Remodeling Market Index is calculated by averaging the Current Marketing Index and the Future Market Indicators Index. Any number over 50 indicates that more remodelers view remodeling market conditions as higher than the previous quarter. Results are seasonally adjusted.

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

SOURCE: DEED

Y-Y Change

West - 83

Minnesota Construction Employment Past 5 Months

Employment Update Minnesota’s unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.4% in December, according to the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED). This is compared to the November unemployment rate of 4.5%. The national unemployment rate saw an increase from 6.4% in November to 6.5% in December. Construction in Minnesota recorded a 3.9% employment decline, or 4,694 jobs, since December 2020.

The economist’s view: bullish in 2021

Home Equity and Home Prices SOURCE: MBA

With COVID-19 numbers hitting new highs, vaccinations not off to the start many had hoped for and the economy taking significant blows, 2021 seems to be off to a rough start. Even with all of that doom and gloom in the first quarter of the year, economist Elliot Eisenberg, like many others, says he is increasingly optimistic about the rest of the year. “Beyond Q1 things should really start to turn around. By April the vaccine numbers should be better, restaurants will be open, we can get out of the house and the economy will grow,” said Eisenberg. “We’ll have more monElliot Eisenberg ey coursing through the economy, and it will get sequentially better throughout the year.” Eisenberg currently predicts we’ll see more than 5% growth in GDP by quarter two of 2021. But he states that this all depends on the vaccine rollout and whether or not we have additional stimulus out of Washington D.C. “Unemployment will fall, inflation doesn’t look all that bad, lots of manufacturing bottlenecks are bad right now but given some time, come spring we’ll be spending more on services, and low interest rates will be good. I’m pretty bullish on 2021 outside of this first quarter,” said Eisenberg. Eisenberg says he would have never predicted that housing would lead the way as it did in 2020 despite the pandemic. His forecast for 2021 predicts that housing will have another year of growth. The biggest surprise for Eisenberg now is that he is feeling as optimistic as he is about the broader economic forecast for the year. “If someone would have told me back in April when the stock market fell and we were losing jobs, I would have been surprised that we have recovered to where we are,” said Eisenberg. “This recovery seems to be much more like a natural disaster recovery, after the storm you clean up and you get back to work, not a normal loss-of-confidence recession.”

Data indicates an 11% increase in November 2020, the highest year-over-year growth since 2005.

Housing equity hits record high in 2020 Low inventory of homes for sale matched with exponentially rising prices has become a growing problem in housing markets across the country. This pair of issues is making it more difficult for potential buyers to enter the market. But for those already in the market, it has boosted the equity in their home to new highs. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), equity among homeowners reached a record-shattering level. Those who owned their homes accumulated $20.4 trillion in equity in the third quarter of 2020. A trend that has been consistently rising since 2012. “The interest in homebuying is high, even as the economy and job market have yet to return

to pre-pandemic levels of activity,” the MBA reports. Data from the Federal Housing and Finance Agency indicates an 11% increase in November 2020, the highest year-over-year growth since 2005. As the national economy across all sectors continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the MBA anticipates high prices and low inventory to continue to be a concern into 2021. MBA points to new home construction as the key to slowing the record pace of home price increases. “We expect the pace of home-price growth to slow, as homebuilding continues to ramp up and housing inventory loosens,” MBA concludes.

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suited for both homeowner and professional builders’ needs. WeMake takeus pride personal yourinfirst source service, for doors, and our talented and experienced team provides support to meet the needs of your specific windows, siding, lumber, roofing, and more. project. We provide quality materials that will perform well and look us your first Call or great. come Make in today. source for doors, windows, siding, lumber, roofing, and more. Call or come in today. Builders FirstSource, formerly ProBuild, carries a wide selection of high quality building materials suited for both homeowner and professional builders’ needs. We take pride in personal service, and our talented and experienced team provides support to meet the needs of your specific project. We provide quality materials that will perform well and look great. Make us your first source for doors, windows, siding, lumber, roofing, and more. Call or come in today.

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Lakeville, MN 55044 952-469-3466 HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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MARKET REPORT

Lumber prices continue wild ride Since April, lumber prices have been elevated and have emerged as a critical concern in the homebuilding industry. The surge in lumber prices accelerated from early June 2020 and reached a peak in mid-September 2020. Prices then moderated through fall, only to turn higher again in November and December as 2020 came to a close. They remain elevated in early 2021. The market swings are remarkable not only for the heights of the price increases, but also for the volatility in the market. Stay-at-home orders and concerns about safety disrupted lumber production during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Workflow and production capacity was diminished throughout the country. At the same time, industry projections of a slowing housing market failed to materialize, and instead, 2020 brought stunningly strong market demand. Federal officials, noting the volatility and rising prices in the market, took action in late 2020. In early December, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a final determination that would reduce tariffs on shipments of Canadian lumber into the United States by more than half. The reduction from 20% to 9% is expected to have a stabilizing impact on lumber prices.

David Siegel, executive director for Housing First Minnesota, said that lumber prices have grabbed the attention of housing industry professionals. “The surge in lumber prices was a challenge on top of an already challenging year,” Siegel said. “We are already facing a powerful shortage of inventory and regulatory barriers to new construction. We’re hopeful that the federal action taken in late 2020, along with a more normalized lumber production level, will balance out strong consumer demand in 2021 and stabilize prices.”

“The surge in lumber prices was a challenge on top of an already challenging year.” David Siegel

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, HOUSING FIRST MINNESOTA

The increased and accelerated demand has impacted the price of homes during this period. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that rising lumber costs increased the price of new single-family homes by $16,000 and apartment prices by $6,107 per unit.

SOURCE: NAHB

The National Association of Home Builders estimates that rising lumber costs increased the price of new single-family homes by $16,000 and apartment prices by $6,107 per unit.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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REALTORS®: Inventory shortage continues to plague the Twin Cities housing market

The extended time at home has specialty rooms and spaces gaining a lot more interest from homebuyers.

Homebuyers have new wants in 2021 Few would have predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic would have the impact that it has had on new home sales. The global crisis has changed the way that we live. That can be seen in what consumers now want in their home. According to Zonda’s most recent consumer survey, there have been some significant shifts in what is important to homebuyers. “Your home and community have never been more important,” said Molly Carmichael, a Zonda strategist. “Home used to be just your place for nurturing and family, now we are looking to your home to accommodate work and school, and we’re embracing this and adding more of an entertainment aspect to home as well.” More than 62% of homebuyers now work from home, with 60% reporting this is a new lifestyle change due to the global pandemic. All of this time at home has led many to desire a new style in their home, with others wanting to make a move for more functional space. “Better style and more functional space were the number one and number two wants from surveyed homebuyers,” said Carmichael. “A large home and a large lot were the least important to surveyed homebuyers.” According to Zonda’s survey, 1,500 to 2,500 square feet

During their annual joint press conference, the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® (MAR), the St. Paul Area Association of REALTORS® (SPAAR) and the Minnesota REALTORS® reflected on a year that saw high activity across the metro despite pandemic-related worries. Home purchases in 2020 were up 7.7% from the previous year. The Twin Cities metro overall had the highest level of new listings since 2016. The median sales price increased 8.9% to $305,000. Despite this record activity, Minnesota’s housing market remained extremely competitive among potential buyers with many homes receiving multiple bids in a matter of hours. As a result, sellers received a record-high percentage of the original list price. The Twin Cities’ supply of inventory fell 39.3% from 2019. “Predictably, the result of record sales combined with ultra-low inventory meant rising prices and sellers accepting stronger offers in less time,” according to Tracy Baglio, president of SPAAR. Despite pandemic-related economic worries earlier in the year, the housing market remained bullish throughout the late spring, summer and fall months. Increased time spent at home led to higher sales in suburban and exurban areas. Furthermore, record-low interest rates gave many buyers that extra push to get into the market. Predictably, the three REALTORS® groups concurred that inventory of available homes remained the single biggest challenge for the overall housing market. “Despite several challenges, the Twin Cities housing market exceeded all expectations,” remarked Todd Walker, president of MAR. “Inventory remained a hurdle, but homeowners have never had so much equity in their homes and buyers haven’t seen rates this low in 50 years, offsetting rising prices.”

is the most popular home size for younger homebuyers and downsizers. Some of this renewed interest in smaller homes is due to a change in demographics, and much of it is due to affordability. “We need to get creative with space as affordability again remains constrained,” says Carmichael. The extended time at home has specialty rooms and spaces gaining a lot more interest from homebuyers. This includes home vegetable gardens, chicken coops and ways to live a little more independently. A growing number of people like the idea of being self-sustainable and more off the grid, according to Carmichael. “Nesting and isolation will continue to grow, it will be a challenge to get people out the door,” said Carmichael. “Consumers don’t have to leave the house to go to movies, to make dinner, to go to work or even a classroom, turning that living room into a big movie theater. All those things are so important.” Other consumer trends Carmichael predicts include more color as homebuyers get bored in their homes, more online home shopping and more interest in front porches on homes as the retired boomers and young families alike see the porch as an opportunity to stay engaged in the community and of greater interest as they spend more time at home.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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INDUSTRY IN ACTION CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1

Six Minnesota homebuilders recognized as top energy-efficient builders in the nation

According to RESNET, for states that energy test more than 1,000 homes, Minnesota leads in energy efficiency with an average HERS Index Score of 50.

Minnesota. Created by Housing First Minnesota in 2011, the program has provided HPRs to more than 27,000 newly built homes.

program, which provides homebuyers with a Home Performance Report (HPR) detailing their HERS score and their air exchanges. “It’s really a testament to our Green Path program that five of the top 20 builders in the country as far as energy efficiency are members of Housing First Minnesota,” said David Siegel, executive director of Housing First Minnesota. “These builders are shining examples of how many in our industry go above and beyond to create high-performing, energy-efficient homes that have a lasting impact on our communities and our environment.” According to Ryan Meres, program director at RESNET, who appeared at the Green Path Building Conference in November 2020, for states that energy test more than 1,000 homes, Minnesota leads in energy efficiency with an average HERS Index Score of 50. “By comparison, a HERS Index Score of 100 represents a home built as recently as 2006. Not only are homes with low HERS Index Scores more comfortable for owners of the homes, they also annually save their families an average of over $750 a year in utility costs, fostering local economic development, and reduce annually an average of 4.39 tons of carbon emissions aiding the environment,” says Steve Baden, executive director of RESNET. Minnesota’s Green Path is the leading energy efficiency and green building program for the residential construction industry in

MINNESOTA'S TOP ENERGY-EFFICIENT HOMEBUILDERS Hanson Builders MINNEAPOLIS

Key Land Homes PRIOR LAKE

OneTenTen Homes BURNSVILLE

Robert Thomas Homes MINNEAPOLIS

Lennar Minnesota MINNEAPOLIS

Bigelow Homes ROCHESTER

SOURCE: RESNET

GREEN PATH IS SPONSORED BY

For more information on Minnesota’s Green Path, visit MNGreenPath.org

Helping you succeed is our calling. Whether that’s through direct money-saving benefits, powerful advocacy helping our industry thrive, providing Minnesotans the opportunity for homeownership, nationleading marketing to help your business grow, or networking and connections that create trust and facilitate business, we are here for you. If you are not yet a member of Housing First Minnesota, we warmly invite you to consider membership. Join us as we seek to provide the opportunity of homeownership for everyone, everywhere.

DIRECT MONEY-SAVING BENEFITS • Association health insurance plan • Sample contracts • Auto dealership discount: Jeff Belzer’s • Contractor University online, on-demand • Member discounts: Holiday, HomeSphere, Speedway, Verizon, and more

ADDITIONAL VALUE • Everything Home Minnesota consumer magazine and membership directory • Advocacy efforts to keep homeownership viable and attainable

Join Us. HousingFirstMN.org/Membership Membership@HousingFirstMN.org 651-697-7570

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

•

Marketing and industry information: Housing Industry News, the Digest magazine and our digital Hot Sheet provide resources to operate your business more efficiently and profitably

New campaign looks to promote homeownership for everyone, everywhere Following a year where there was a larger emphasis on home, Housing First Minnesota is looking to raise awareness on the importance of home and more importantly the importance of owning that home. They launched the Homeownership is all of it campaign in December and will continue to ramp up efforts throughout the year. Homeownership is all of it focuses on the benefits of homeownership, noting that it is currently not attainable for everyone in Minnesota. The initiative’s website gives a glimpse at the main issues impacting housing and the history of how our housing market has grown more expensive and left many groups, especially communities of color, out of the market entirely. “Owning a home builds self-esteem, wealth, and community,” said David Siegel, executive director of Housing First Minnesota. “Our housing market is drastically undersupplied and that is causing home prices to skyrocket leaving too many families, many Gen-Z, Millennial, communities of color, and members of Minnesota’s workforce, priced out of homeownership.” Minnesota currently has some of the worst housing inventory in the country. On top of that the state also holds the title of having the worst homeownership gap between black and white Minnesotans. Housing First Minnesota points to building more inventory at all price points as an important step in making homeownership more attainable for all Minnesotans. Unfortunately, building at the all-important lower price points is currently nearly impossible across the state due to layers of local and state fees and regulations. “Today’s roadblocks started many decades ago – and they’ve become overgrown and duplicated,” said Siegel. “Many cities require that all new homes be built on large lots, with large homes, and large garages with stone exteriors and fancy landscaping. This may make for posh, designer cities, but it makes homes so expensive that many Minnesotans are left out.” Learn more about the Homeownership is all of it campaign at HomeownershipMN.org

Homeownership is all of it is about making homeownership more attainable for all Minnesotans.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

| 13

INDUSTRY GIVES BACK

Remembering Joe Weis, industry champion Minnesota’s housing industry lost one of its leaders when Joe Weis passed away in late January. Weis and his brother Eugene launched Weis Builders in 1960, a company that has grown to be one of the largest providers of affordable housing in Minnesota and neighboring states. Outside of the company’s success, Weis was known as one of the most prominent housing industry figures in Minnesota politics. Weis participated in many local, state and national trade groups, and he was a tireless housing advocate. “Joe loved housing and he loved politics,” said David Siegel, executive director of Housing First Minnesota. “He was a tireless housing champion and became one of the most familiar industry faces in St. Paul and all the way to Washington, D.C. He always had a good cigar to share and was constantly working to improve housing policies for all of us.”

Project Build Minnesota's vision is to make careers in construction the first choice for hardworking people through three main goals.

Project Build Minnesota starts 2021 with new vision and mission During the past year, we’ve seen demand for new homes climb to new heights, but in order to build those homes, the housing industry needs the workforce to do so. With renewed goals, the nonprofit Project Build Minnesota (PBM) is hoping to help attract more men and women to careers in construction in Minnesota. The vision of PBM is to make careers in construction the first choice for hardworking people through three main goals. First, PBM will strengthen relationships with educators who inform and Joe Weis Weis Builders

influence young people’s career choices in order to reach more young adults with the PBM message. Second, the organization will continue to use the web and social media to educate more young people about the careers in construction. Finally, PBM hopes to expand its network of industry partners and firms to support these efforts. Housing First Minnesota, Associated Builders and Contractors, Minnesota Builders Exchange and The Builders Group founded PBM a few years ago to meet the growing need for skilled labor. David Siegel, executive director

of Housing First Minnesota, and Peter Jacobson, founder of Lake Country Builders in Excelsior, represent the residential construction industry on the PBM board. According to PBM, Jacobson’s interest in construction was piqued in high school and led him to a wonderfully successful career as a remodeler, building a business that was named Remodeler of the Year by Housing First Minnesota in 2020. Now retired, Jacobson wants to share his passion and inspire Minnesota youth to consider a career in the field.

For more information about Project Build Minnesota, visit ProjectBuildMN.org

SOURCE: WEIS BUILDERS

Real Estate Law at Every Level Larkin Hoffman has been a go-to real estate law firm for more than six decades. We provide a comprehensive range of services including financing, tax increment financing, acquisitions and dispositions, construction, development, land use, environmental regulation, property conversions and redevelopment, leasing, renewals, eminent domain and inverse condemnation, property tax appeals, and litigation. This full-service approach ensures we can address and manage every element of our clients’ real estate matters.

Peter Coyle | pcoyle@larkinhoffman.com | 952-896-3214 14 |

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

IN THE DIRT

A quick recap of housing news and development updates

SOURCE: TIM NELSON, MPR NEWS

SOURCE: MN HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY

SOURCE: MINNEAPOLIS AREA REALTORS

St. Paul Planning Commission prefers empty lot

Feds send more rental assistance

A new record: Twin Cities median home price rises to $305,000

A proposal to build a six-story, mixed-use housing development with 150 affordable units was rejected by the St. Paul Planning Commission. The project would have been a $57 million housing development along the Green Line. Despite the project not needing a variance or city assistance, the commission voted 8-7 to deny the application. For now, the long-vacant lot near Lexington Parkway and University Avenue will sit empty.

After Congress passed and former President Donald Trump signed the December 2020 stimulus bill, Minnesota is poised to receive $375 million in rental assistance. The previous stimulus bill had sent $100 million to Minnesota. The Minnesota Housing Finance Agency is tasked with working with counties and cities to distribute the dollars to tenants and landlords that need the help.

As millennials continue to age into their homebuying years and interest rates remain at record lows, demand for housing has increased substantially, while supply remains at historically low levels. The result is bidding wars and ever-climbing prices for housing. 2020 saw an 8.9% increase in the median home price in the Twin Cities to $305,000. The median home price has risen by 24% in the Twin Cities in just three years. It has risen 27% for Greater Minnesota in that same time period.

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