2007 october mike on markets by karen bosso

Mike on the Markets Vol. I, Iss. 2

October 2007

Should we Worry about a Recession?

For as many times as we’ve heard the word “RECESSION!” being yelled over these last few months, it’s a wonder we’re not all dead or penniless, or worse.

I’m not an economist, nor do I play one on TV (the older folks’ll understand that…), and as such, I won’t try to predict when the next recession will happen. I am, however, willing to predict another one will happen someday and economic signs suggest sooner rather than later. Some segments of the economy, Real Estate for example, are already in their own private recessions.

So what does this mean for you, the average American investor? What is a recession? Is there any way to protect yourself when one comes to pass? And they do pass.

The first thing to understand is that worry doesn’t benefit anyone but psychiatrists. Recession needs to be understood for what it is: a natural part of the business cycle. Since 1970, the stock markets have had 21 corrections (losses) of 10% or more. In the last 50 years, we’ve seen 11 bear markets,

Michael Bosso

Financial Adviser

1

defined as a decline of 20% or more.

Perhaps the easiest way to think of it is the saying, “Two steps forward, one step back.” It would be nice if the markets handed out their rewards in exact, orderly increments, but they don’t. And as long as we understand this fact, it helps take some of the anxiety out of the dreaded recession.

Financial Benefits Resources One Lincoln ~ Ste. 375 10300 Greenburg Road Portland, OR 97223 Office 503-595-1662 Toll Free 877-421-9991 Fax 503-595-1666 Cell 971-212-9464 mike@teamfbr.com

Not only are recessions/corrections completely normal, they can even be viewed as healthy for the economy.

They serve as pressure release valves, putting a brake on rampant speculation, and reminding us of the real risks inherent in the system.

Now that said, we don’t have to take recession lying down!

There are concrete things we can do to take more than a little of the sting out of these inevitable economic downturns. Please read further into this newsletter to find out what a few of those things are.

Inside

1

Should we Worry about a Recession?

We Like to Watch…last month’s stocks

2

Recession-Proof Your Portfolio

What do they 3 Index Shmindex? mean for you?

Index-Linked CD’s

1

Peter Lynch <http://personal.fidelity.com/ global/whatsnew/content/101008.html?s> See also p. 4 of this newsletter

4

Trading CardsTM – Peter Lynch New Stocks to Watch

We Like to Watch…last month’s stocks were worth watching Name

Symbol

Price U$

8/24 Price

$ Change

% Change

P/E Ratio

Divid.

Yield%

Industry

Category

Mike’s Commentary

Calamos Convertible & Hi Inc

CHY

14.95

14.56

0.39

+2.7

7.91

9.79

Closed End Fund

Aggress Inc

I still like it

Euroseas

ESEA

20.01

13.36

6.65

+49.8

14.02

5.0

Shipping

Aggress G&I

I liked it better at 13.36

Applied Materials

AMAT

21.62

20.84

0.78

+3.7

16.31

1.11

Manufacturing

Growth

Becoming disillusioned

Danaher

DHR

81.40

75.51

5.89

+7.8

22.79

0.15

Manufacturing

Growth

Still a favorite

PBT

15.52

13.45

2.07

+15.4

12.07

10.91

Oil and Natural Gas

DUK

18.77

18.38

0.39

+2.1

13.20

4.69

Utility

Growth & Income Growth & Income

DE

150.60

129.30

21.30

+16.5

20.55

1.33

Agric. Equip.

BHP

82.86

57.60

25.26

+43.9

18.09

1.30

Commodities

Growth

Still like it

Energy

Growth & Income

He with the last barrel will be crowned king…

Permian Basin Trust Duke Energy Deere BHP Exxon

XOM

94.80

83.15

11.65

+14.0

13.57

1.48

Growth

These same 9 stocks were listed in my August newsletter as worth watching.

Please see p. 4 for important disclosure information and New stocks to watch!

Still a favorite Still a favorite Nothing runs like a Deere!

Page | 1

Recession-Proof Your Portfolio 1 What you need to know…

As I suggested in the front page article “Should I Be Worried…” investors don’t have to take economic downturns lying down. Because the handiest tool in your toolkit is always education, I’d like to outline for you the major factors worth keeping in mind if/when the economy appears to be heading into a recession.

Ups and Downs…

Stock markets go up based on a belief that corporate earnings (amount of stuff they sell) will be higher next year than they were this year. Likewise, stocks decrease in value on the belief that earnings will be lower next year than they were this year. They “go sideways” or remain flat when earnings are expected to remain the same. Other market forces, such as speculation, mergers and buyouts, and other unforeseen events also affect stock prices, but for a very general discussion, the above is accurate.

Take home: Beliefs and expectations translate into dollars gained or lost.

Watch earnings reports for the stocks you own.

Picky Picky…

Some segments of the economy outperform others during recessionary periods. For instance, when the economy as a whole slows down, stocks related to building, retail, and items related to discretionary purchases, slow down much more than do others.

Take home: Some spots are definitely better, but if you can’t be in the winning spot a good percentage of the time—diversify. Then diversify some more.

A Stock by any Other Name…

Mutual funds are the primary investment vehicle held by most Americans.

Mutual Funds by their nature are comprised of stocks and bonds. I have had people tell me they do not wish to have the risk of stock market exposure, only to discover the mutual funds they are holding are made up primarily of growth stocks (an even riskier class of stocks).

Take Home: Know what stocks are held in your Mutual Funds, and don’t hesitate to reposition your assets for correct balance.

Goals are Good…

How many years before you’d like to utilize your investment earnings?

What is your risk tolerance? Can you realistically make it from point A (I gotta go to work) to point B (I wanna go fishing, traveling, etc.) with your current investment strategy and those two pieces of information? How about point C? Take home: You’ve got to know where you’re going in order to get there.

Do you have a readable map?

A

B

…and what to do if you don’t…

Unless it’s your “thing,” education is valuable as a means to an end. Most of us can remember sitting in a classroom at one time or other wondering, “Why am I here? I won’t ever use this!”

Information usually doesn’t “stick,” because we don’t use it. This is especially true for investing: Use it or lose it. Literally.

Some people find taking charge of their own financial future to be a labor of love. Others find the idea of intelligent, responsible investing to be confusing, overwhelming, or just plain boring. Neither way is good or bad.

Compare this to your car, a significant investment about which you may know very little, except how to add fuel. But unlike the typical automobile, a well-maintained portfolio should not decrease in value with each passing year. Like your car, you don’t have to have an intimate understanding of its inner workings.

Most folks rest easy knowing they have a trusted mechanic who knows that stuff. Think of your financial advisor as a money mechanic.

“Think of your financial advisor as a money mechanic.”

You add the fuel (money) and oversee the mechanic, but he or she does the work.

If you find yourself unable or unwilling to manage your investments at least monthly, you owe it to yourself to find someone who can do it for you. And if your current advisor doesn’t like to get his or her hands greasy in the stock market, it may be time to switch to someone who loves doing just that.

If you would like more information on how to recession-proof your investment strategy, please call me for a free portfolio review. We can set up a no-obligation appointment at your home or office, my office, or any comfortable location. I make house calls throughout the Willamette Valley. Please find contact information on the front of this newsletter.

C

Page | 2

Index Shmindex?

You hear about them every time you watch the news. When you sit down for coffee in the morning and look at your newspaper, the business section has them listed at the top of the page. When you open your mail, you see your mutual funds and stockbroker comparing their performance to them. I’m talking about what the investment industry calls an “index.” You’ll hear them by these names:  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)  The Standard & Poors 500 (“The S&P”)  The Nasdaq 100  The Russell 3000  And many, many, many others.

The Russell 3000 on the other hand, while seemingly large, only covers about 82% of the US stock market by number of companies. If you can find the Russell 3000 performance numbers, you’ll have a fairly decent scope of the entire market.

“Diversify, diversify, diversify” has been the mantra since the last tech bubble burst in 2000-2001. Those who learned that lesson are probably holding a portfolio somewhere between the S&P and the Russell 3000 by virtue of the contents of their mutual funds.

Yet oddly enough, the larger indexes are the ones you hear about the least. I don't think there is a conspiracy here, nor do I believe there is a fundamental oversight.

An index, by definition, is just a list of individual stocks someone has grouped together to tell a particular story. So when the performance of an index is quoted (ie: “The Dow is down 175 points today on heavy trading…”), before you get too worried or excited, you might want to ask yourself, “What does that really mean to me?

Here’s the dirty little secret everyone should know. The indexes mean very, very little to the average investor. For the most part, indexes (indices if we were proper, but we’re not) are just a yardstick against which to compare your own performance at some level or other.

The Dow Jones (the most widely quoted index) is comprised of just 30 stocks.

They’re 30 pretty powerful stocks, but nevertheless, they’re just 30 of the more than 3600 companies said to make up the entire stock market – and that’s just in the U.S1. Unless you happen to own those 30 industrial stocks in the same percentages at which the index tracks them, the Dow’s performance means little to you.

The S&P 500 is comprised of, guess how many? It tracks 500 stocks, making it a slightly better yardstick, but here, only roughly 25% are manufacturing stocks, 20% financial services, 11% energy, 20% information, and 23% services. Once again, US stocks only.

The Nasdaq 100 is comprised of the top 100 technology companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Although with the Nasdaq, you will typically hear the entire Nasdaq Composite Index quoted, which is all 3,113 of its stocks.

The more popular indexes were historically used by economists and professional investors as indicators of the US markets’ overall health. Since there is a “tradition” of tracking the Dow and the S&P, the numbers continue to be reported, but their relevance to your accounts may not be significant.

If you are still reading at this point, you are very perseverant! Here’s the bottom line: Unless you own investments that track directly against a particular index, its best use is to remind you to check your own accounts once in awhile. And when you do so, be prepared for what may be little, if any, correlation to what you hear on the news. If you find yourself doing consistently worse, then you might want to consider one of the index-linked investments such as the CD’s described below. For everyone else, use the indexes as an interesting side note, but don't automatically assume your investments are experiencing the same up and down performance.

1

Based on the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index.

See: http://finance.yahoo.com\q\pr?s=VTSMX 2 Index-linked mutual funds and exchange traded funds are also available

Index-Linked CD’s –the calm…

Let’s pretend for a moment that you could: 1) invest in the stock market, 2) be assured a minimum rate of return, and 3) have the government guarantee you won’t lose any of your principal.

You don’t have to pretend any longer, because this has become a reality that most people can take advantage of.

A relatively new product in the US, IndexLinked Certificates of Deposit (CD’s) allow investors to achieve the above with minimum investments in 1, 3, and 5-year increments similar to conventional bank CD’s. The potential earnings of these investments are linked to a particular index of stocks and like regular CD’s, the FDIC guarantees that you will not lose any of your principal even if the market heads south.

If, for instance, the S&P 500 corrects over the next year, your index-linked mutual fund will lose money. Your index-linked CD, however, may not make anything more than the guaranteed rate, but at least

you will not lose principal. 1 Similar exposure, with less risk is a winning recipe for most investors.

Since my last newsletter, many clients, new and old, have felt this investment was a “no-brainer” for them simply because we really don't know what the future holds. We believe the stock markets will go up in value, and we hope the worldwide economy will keep chugging along, but we also remember market corrections and bear markets in the past that lost investors thousands of dollars.

If your financial institution does not offer Index-Linked CD's, please contact me to discuss if they are right for you and how we can make them part of your portfolio. many, but not all index-linked CD’s offer a minimum return 1

Page | 3

Trading Cards Peter Lynch

was born January 19, 1944. He is a graduate of Boston College and like many other financial luminaries, studied at the prestigious Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

despise) is called “local knowledge.” He believed that the average, small investor had an edge over larger institutional ones in that they could find solid investments in their day-today lives and move on them more quickly and fluidly. Some of his largest gains were in companies he himself found that very way.

He went to work for Fidelity Investments in the late 1960’s, becoming their director of research in 1974. When he assumed management

He is co-author of three books aimed at readers of all levels of investing knowledge or ability. Lynch views philanthropy as an investment in its own right. He walks his talk through four charitable foundations or trusts (one valued at $74 million in 2003) as well as donating proceeds from his books.

of the little-known Magellan Fund in 1977, it contained a mere $18 million in assets. Upon his retirement in 1990, the fund had grown to over $14 billion, averaging a 29% annual return, and reportedly beating the S&P in 11 of those 13 yrs. making him one of the most successful money managers of all time.

Mr. Lynch currently serves as vice-chairman of Fidelity Management & Research Co., where he primarily mentors young analysts.

Sources http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Lynch http://www.investopedia.com/university/greatest/peterlynch.asp

Lynch might be most well known for his philosophy “invest in what you know,” which in economist’s language (which he seems to

wit and wisdom from peter lynch

Investing is fun, exciting, and dangerous if you don't do any work.

Go for a business that any idiot can run, because sooner or later, an idiot probably is going to run it.

A stock market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you're prepared, it can't hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.

I've always said if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 10 minutes.

IF ALL THE ECONOMISTS IN THE WORLD WERE LAID END TO END, IT WOULDN'T BE A BAD THING.

The re i s al ways s ome thi ng to w or ry abou t. A voi d w eek end thi nki ng and th e l at est di r e pr edi c ti o ns of ne w sc ast er s.

Sel l a stoc k b ec aus e the c ompa ny ’s funda men t al s dete ri ora te , n ot bec au se th e sky i s fal l i ng .

We Like to Watch……new stocks I’m watching Name Cree Technologies Diana Shipping

Symbol

Price U$

P/E Ratio

Divid.

Yield%

CREE

26.70

36.34

N/A

DSX

34.46

25.4

6.1

Tata Motors

TTM

19.82

13.71

1.9

Boulder Tot Ret Fund

BTF

22.22

5.79

4.7

Viropharma

VPHM

9.44

7.51

N/A

Industry Technology Shipping Diversified Mfg Closed-end fund Healthcare

Category Aggress Growth Growth & Income Growth & Income Growth & Income Growth

Mike’s Commentary LED light pioneer; long term future looks bright. Really.

Growing fleet; pre-sells their capacity The next General Electric? Bringing air-powered car to market 15% disct. to act value; cheap way to buy Berkshire-Hathaway Drugs for resistant bacteria; Stage 2 trials for Hep C & common cold treatments

Important Disclosure Information Please note that the mention of stocks in this publication is a not recommendation to buy or sell those stocks. I personally hold, or have family and clients who hold, every stock mentioned except AMAT, TTM, & VPHM. Indexes are unmanaged groupings of stocks used to approximate general stock market performance. You cannot invest directly into any of these indexes.

Stock prices current as of 17 October 2007 Securities offered through Pacific West Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC, Advisory Services offered through Pacific West Financial Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor ~ Clearing services offered through Pershing, a subsidiary of the Bank of New York.

Certificates of deposit offered subject to change and availability. FDIC insured up to $100,000. Minimum deposit required. Periodic interest payments may not be reinvested in the certificate of deposit. Certificates of deposit sold prior to maturity may result in an uninsured capital loss.

The comments contained herein are for general educational purposes only, do not address the entire topic, and should not be considered investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of invested principal. Past performance is NOT a guarantee of future results. Be advised that security transactions involve trade costs. For more specific information on investment risks, you should consult the offering’s prospectus. Prior to implementing any strategy, taxpayers are urged to seek the advice of their tax advisors.

~ Newsletter Design by karen bosso ©2007 ~

Page | 4