Lessons from the recesslon

r;tltnsr, I sope ro to see many of you later this month in Las Vegas at the lumber -[ inAuttr''r premier event, the Nnyg14 Traders Market. Look out in the center ;thi, issuL fo'r our 56-page, pull-out feature (our biggest in some time) covering ihr "u.nt and its extriUitJrs.^there is still time to sign up, and it looks like a t"uttty turnout and an indication that the industry continues to grow^again.

www.bu ild i n g-Prod ucts.com

A oublication of Cutler Publishing 4500 Campus Dr., Ste.480, Newport Beach, CA 92660

Publisher Alan Oakes ajoakes@aol.com

Publisher Emeritus David Cutler

Director of Editorial & Production

David Koenig dkoenig@building'Products.com

Editor Karen Debats kdebats@building-Products.com

Contributing Editors

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All signs are that 2014 will surpass 2013 in housing starts, with forecasts from several e"conomists hitting what many believe to be the realistic number of about l.l million starts. With tlhis total, we are starting to get to a more realistic level that past history can support. Even those numbers will likely create issues of supply and transportation, but it's a much better place to be' it" major lesson should be that even though one might qualify to borrow money, noi all should. The credit explosion in 2004-2006 that created the housing bubb6 showed that not all people are responsible and fiscally attuned to what can happen. Having debt (business^or private) in a prolonged downturn creates all the issues that lead to companies closing, widescile unemployment' a wipe out of equity ano possibly losing everything-. we learned that our homes are not piggy banks and ihould not be relied on to provide funding for endeavors such as schooling, lavish vacations, autos or even that second-or third-home. Those low teasEr rates don't continue forever. Indeed, I saw offers that actually lasted only one month! Your house should be a place to live and a lifestyle choice, not an investment asset.

'Thut being said, I-along with many readers, judging by your feedback-am stili jumpy &er wtrat has tianspired since 2O07. Many of us still can't believe ttrings are even okay. while we all agree things are better, there seems there is ui*ivr a but coming. There's a lingering sense that another shoe could drop, so I have tried to think through what leisons we should learn from the recession. The official recession lasted 6nly 17 months, but I think for our industry it was closer to five years. Estimates ,ugg"rt more than 8 million jobs were lost and almost $19 trillion of household wealth.

We also learned that the stock market can go down as well as up' Yes' we all knew that, but none of us had ever seen how quickly it could drop. I teadthat 12 y"urc of gains were wiped out in months.. And the daily fall, often by several hunired points, led to some very costly panic decisions, especially among those at or near ietirement. But the maiket hai iome back. If you sold, you committed yourselves to losses. Sitting tight despite the angst and having a balanced, well-man-

Dwight Cunan James Olsen Carla Waldemar

Advertising Sales Manager Chuck CaseY ccasey@building-Products.com

Administration Director/Secretary Marie Oakes mfPoakes@aol'com

Circulation Manager Heather Kelly hkelly@building-Products.com

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Ghuck CaseY

Phone (949) 852-1990 Fax 949-852-0231 ccasey@bu ilding-Products.com

Alan Oakes www. bui lding'Products.com

Phone (949) 852-1990 Fax 949-852-0231 ajoakes@aol.com

CLASSIFIED David Koenig

Phone (949) 852-1990 Fax 949-852-0231 dkoenig@building-Products'com

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SUBSCRIPTIONS Heather KellY Phone (949) 852-1990 Fax 949-852'0231 hkelly@building-Products'com or send a check to 4500 CamPus Dr., Ste. 480, NewPort Beach, CA 92660 the mental toll it took was palpable' I know we all think the final lesson is that it is easier to find a new job when employed rather than when unemployed.

The events of the last five years will hopefully guide us in the future. We do tend to forget easily. Let's hope we do not and instead better assess risk'

Alan Oakes, Publisher ajoakes@aol.com

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