Evidence That There Will Soon be a Reversal of Lumber Situation, Says A. J. Russell

We are reprinting the following letter which was sent out by Mr. A. J. Russell, manager of the Santa Fe Lumber Co., San Francisco, under date of March 2. After a careful survey of lumber conditions today as compared with the year 1925, Mr. Russell says that there is almost conclusive evidence that there will shortlv be a reversal of the lumber situation that has existed for the past few years. Mr. Russell's letter, which contains valuable information on the lumber situation, is as follows:

A survey of lumber conditions today as compared with the year 1925 is almost conclusive evidence that there will shortly be a reversal of the situation that has existed for the past four years.

Shipments and orders in Douglas Fir and in Southern Pine have exceeded production since January l, 19?f,.

Since 1925 there has tctuallv been consumed more ltrm, ber in these two great woods tiran has been producetl.

The following shows actual production- of these two woods for the past three years and the estimated production o_f same for the year 1928. To this there is compared Dodge Corporation Statistics of lumber consumption as estimatid by them and as actually consumed for the same period.

CONSUMPTION

Dodgc Corporation Statistics t925

tns Forccart Achral

_.Read-qlese figures. They are of a convincihg nature. Since 1925 there has been no increase in YO'UR stock on hand or in stock on hand at the mills.

A. C. HORNER ATTENDS CHICAGO CONFERENCES

-A.. C,Fgtner, San Francisco, western division manager gf the National Lumber Manufacturers' Association, iJin Chicago- attending the Trade Extension and Regional Secretaries conferences of the National Lumber Manufacturers' Association that will be held during the week of March 12.

As a matter of fact the reverse is the case.

ln 1925 a car of lumber took 30 days in transit to an average California point.

Today 12 days is a good average. The same comparison is true all over the nation in even a greater degree.

If the saving in time amounted, to say, 18 days, in 1927, and will be the same ih 19?8, and, if the shipments cf the United States amount to 110 million ft. per day, wh.ich they do, then where is the 18 times 110 million ft. that belongs to the mill, or to you, or was in transit in L925?

The answer is "it ain't."

Study the above comparisohs again. Production has decreased yearly, consumption has increased yeaily for the past three years. The lumber required to take care of the decrease on one hand and increase on the other has all that time been very gradually supplied by improved time 'in transit.

In other words during the past three years we have had three separate stocks of lumber on hand. One with the mills, which has not increased. One in the hands of the railroads, which has been almost wiped out by the speeding up of trahsportation and one in your hands.

It is a safe bet that YOUR footage was less January l,1928 than January l, 1925.

It was perfectly proper that your footage should have been less in your last inventory, because you were securing immediate shipment and immediate delivery, but the day of 48 hour loading is drawing to a close and delay in transportation.

On January I, 1928 62 per cent of all the lumber in the Northwest was owned by 12 firms, showing that mixed carloading was not quickly available at every plant.

As we see it since l9ZS-production has decreased; consumption has increased; thi "third" stock of lumbir (in transit) has been consumed.

Eveiy- in-dication points t-o-delayed -shipments, stronger prices, abolishment of hand-to-mouth buying.

cHAs. R. MccoR"Sf;y"t$trs Los

Chas. R. McCormick, Chas. R. McCormick Lumber Co., San Francisco, spent a few days at the compahy's Los Angeles office, the early part of the month. While in Los Angeles he called on many of his lumbermen friends and also spent a ferv days at the company's yard at San f)iego.

(^\N March 17th, 1928, this double page in lt-/ four colors will appear in The Saturday Eevening Posg featuring the design that won the $2,000.00 f.rst prize. The Post has a circulation of nearh 3 million, with a possible reader circulation of 12 million.

Supplementing this dominant Post advertise. ment will be full pages in House and Garden, House Beautiful, Better Homes and Gardens, The National RealEstate Journal, Architectural Forum, American Architect, Architectural Record, Pencil Points, Pacific Coast Arehitect, The Ametican Builder, Building Age and National Builder.

It is expected that tens of thousands of prospectivebuilders will answer these advertise. ments in The Post, without counting the additional inquiries that will come from the '!7est Coast woods advertising program which will continue throughout the building season, featuring the best of the 'lfest Coast woods prize homes.

In addition, the names of these prospective builders will be mailed to the sales representatives and field promotion men of the Bureau member mills to be passed on to retail lumber dealers, with the expectancy that they will follow up these inquiries from prospective builders in their localities and sell them their lumber requirements.