How Lumber Looks

Three facts stand out in considedng the softwood lumber situation in California today.

First, the stock of unsold lumber at San Pedro is very low.

Second, inventories show stocks in the hands of t{re dealers all over California, and particularly in Southern California, to be unusually low. Hand-to-mouth buying that has never been more hand-to-mouth, is the rule.

Third, fotced to that action by depressed conditions, low volume, and low prices, a huge shuaing down of the Fir mills of the Northwest is already under way. Several big mills r€Port that they are actually boarding up their mills and leaving only a watchman on the job, and will stay down indefinitely. Some mills are closing and not even going to offer fot sale their stock on hand. They are going to let it ride for the next few months. Big mills are closing, according to definite reportsr on all hands. Many are already down. Othets are going down rlrtough June and up to July 4th, at which time there will be a shut-down of scores of big mills fot an indefinite period.

ft looks as though lumber is going to be scarce, and, regard' less of the fact tfiat there is no immediate ProsPect of large in' crease in California consumption, the closing of the mills is going to have a very definite efrect on the California situation.

ft would be very wise for lumber buyers to consider thought' fully what efiect the conditions just noted are likely to have.

A total of. 342 mills reporting to the Vest Coast Lumberments Association for the week ending May 30 oPereted at 44.21 pe cetrt of capacity, as compared to 46.46 per cent of capaciiy for t'he preceding week and 57.82 per cent of capacity during the same week last year. For the first 21 weeks of 19fl these mills have operated at 41.38 per cent of capacity, as com' pared to 65.fi) per cent for t{re same period in 1910.

Production, orders and shipments et 22O identical mills for tfie week ended May 30 were tePorted to the Association as follows: Production 1121829,790 feet; Shipments 1271579,457 feet; Orders 108,4471252 feet. Orders were 3.88 per cent under ptoduction, and shipmenr 13.07 Per cent over the outPut.

Details of orders and shipments for the week as reported by these 220 mills follows: Orders-Rail 32,726,6O3 fieeti Domestic Cargo 47r}g9,Ell feet; Export 17,4t1r349 feet; Local 1O,3E9r489 feet. Shipments-Rarl 4l'378r8o7 feet; Domestic Cargo 5r,57rrE 7 feet; Export 22,2t7,274 feet; Local 1o'389'489 feet.

During the past 26 weeks orders at these 22O mills have aver' aged 8.39 pet cent ovet production. Inventories are now lower tF.tt "t thL time last year, t{re Association statesr and unfilled orders erc holding at about the equivalent of four weelc' pro' &mion *t currcot levels.

Unsold stocks on the public docks at San Pedro on June 10 totaled ErtTTrOOO feet. incoming Fir cargoes at San Pedro for the week ended June 6 totaled 1grg44,ooo f.eet. Fifty lumber vessels in the Cafifornia service are reported laid up, with none operating off shore.

The California White & Sugar Pine Manufacturers' Associa' tion reported production f.tom 24 mills for the week ended May 3O as'16r732OOO f."t, shipments 1-Trl22rOOO feet and orders lSrTOTrOOO f.eet. The same number of mills reported prodlc' tion 4i per cent less and orders 7 per cent more than for the same week last year.

Lumber orders received at the mills during the week ended Mray 3O returned to a level approximating production, it is indicatfo in telegraphic reports lrom 758 leading hardwood, and softwood mills to the National Lumber Manufacturers Association. These mills reported new business as one Per cent under a total productio[ of 226182610OO f.eet. Shipments were 8 per cent above this figure.

Five hundred sixty-one softwood mills reported orders for the week ended llay 3O as 2O3r0l4rOOO feet, or 2 per cent below production of the same mills. Shipmetrts as reported for the -same week were 22217651000 feet, or 7 per cent above produc' tion. Production was 2O7,564,0N f.eet.

Reports from 214 hardwood mills for the week-give new-brrsi' rro, .t 2110851000 feet, or 9 per cent above production, Ship' m€nts as reported for the same week wete 22r00lr000 feet, ot 14 per cent'above production. Production was 1912621000 feet'

The current relationship of shipments and orders to produc' tion for the first 21 weeks of. 1937, as reported to the National Lumber Manufacturers Association by the regional associa' tions, follow:

Vest Coast Lumberments Association-Production 2r2t6rl8L M feet; Shipments 2rr50r5r5 M feet; Orders 2,4051248 M feet' California Vhite and Sugar Pine Manufacturers Association (20 weeks)-Production 176871M feet; Shipments 313,882 M feet; Orders 3291585 M feet.

Vestern Pine Manufactuterst Association-Production 555r' g77 M feet; Shipments 599,977 M feet; Orders 576,812 M feet.

Southetn Pine Association-Production 7791524 Shipments 849rffi M feet; Orders 847523 M feet.

Total Hardwoods-Production 46'31382 M feet; 4g7,gll M feet; Orderc 5O2,t5O M feet.

M feet; Shipments

MAT{Y NORTHWEST MILTS HAVE CLOSED DOWN INDEFINITELY ACCOUNT PRICES AND MARKET CONDITIONS. SCORES OF OTHER MILIS WLL CLOSE BY JULY FOURTH TO REIT{AIN DOWN FOR A LONG, LONG PERIOD. IT IS OUR FIRM OPINION THAT LUMBER WILL SOON BECOME COMPARATIVELY SCARCE. REGARDLESS OF CONSUMPTION THE PRICE OF WHOLESALE LUMBER IS DUE TO ADVANCE. WE OFFER THIS OPINION TO THE TRADE FOR EXACTLY WHAT IT IS WORTH.