THE CALIFOR}-IIA LUMBERMERCHANT

M. ADAMS Clmhtio Mue3rr

How Lumber Looks

Well informed lumbermen from coast to coast harbor the solid conviction at this time that there is a very definite bulge developing in the national lumber industry. The selfsame urg'e that is making the stock market soar upward of late, is going to have a lot to do with it. Fear of inflation is the stoutest element in the stock market rise. people with money are inclined to buy something with it, rather than keep it locked up. Lumber is bound to feel the effects of that opinion. Besides that, retail lumber inventories have been reduced steadily all over the country for the last several months. Dealers never buy on a weak price market. They buy when lumber shows signs of rising. A whole lot more lumber has been sold by the retail trade, than has been bought by thbt same group. Plenty of lumber is needed to fill in the gaps. The dealers generally are in good financial shape and well able to buy and pay for the lumber they need, when the buying starts. California has probably been buying more freely for immediate use than any other part of the country, and while prices are unsatisfactory, volume is high. Building permits remain high. When buying in the rest of the country starts, and there are general reports that it is now starting, the general price situation will be promptly strengthened. Many wise men believe that we will have a very ambitious lumber maiket from coast by the end of the summer.

A recent survey of sawmill operations in Washington and Oregon by the West Coast Lumbermen's Association shows that of 950 large and small mills.in those two states,

550 are entirely down, and only 115 are running full time.

Now that the President has signed the new wage and hour law, making it effective in October, there is much inquiry as to what efiect it will have on the lumber situa_ tion. In the West it will have none to speak of. In the South there are an almost countless number of small mills paying far less than the legal minimum, and running far more than the legal maximum of hours. If the law became effective at once, those mills would have to close, assuming that the measure will be enforced. They could not possibly run and sell their lumber at the present price of smallmill Yellow Pine. Only a tremendous increase in yellow Pine prices between now and October ,could keep those mills operating. That is the secret of the 120 days delay in making the law operative. If it went into effect today, many thousands of small mills would close, their employes would be thrown out of work with no work to be had, and the political effect would be very bad. If a high lumber market comes by early winter, this will be minimized. If not, the shut-downs will be too close to the fall elections to make any difference in that way.

151 down and operating mills in Washington and Oregon whi,ch reported to the West Coast Lumbermen,s Association for the week ended June 18, produced 74,96f.,893 feet of lumber. New business for the week reported by these mills was 86,190,043 feet, and shipments were 84,778,79O f.eet. The unfilled order file stood at 235.830.879 feet.