Prosperity Still Aheud, Says Credit Association

New York, Sept. 3.-Business in general moves steadily and confidently along, and making allowance for a few "soft spots," general prosperity is still an undeniable fact, according to the Nati,onal Association of Credit Men.

The September bulletin of the association's executive manager, says that "it is impossible to see how business, both wholesale and retail, can suffer any serious reverse while the underlying factors of prosperity continue on their present sound and satisfactory basis."

The bulletin says: "The expression 'increase over the totals of last year' has to be used frequently, in many lines of production and distribution.

"The full import of this fact appears only when we recall that 1928 was itself a record year in many industries. Manufacturing output, which the Department of Commerce regards as the most comprehensive measure of economic activity, in 1928 went three per cent beyond the previous peak of 1926, and five per cent over 1927.

"Thrift and industry are earning generous returns. According to Department of Commerce figures, dividends and interest paid to holders of principal American securities during the trst half of l9D totaled approximately $3,265,545,000, as compared with $2,876,405,000 for the first half of 1928.

"The Department of Labor, on the basis of reports from about 13,000 concerns in 54 industries, shows that manufacturing payrolls are running about 10 per cent ahead of last year.

"Iron and steel production in July set up a new high record for that month. Normally, hot weather brings a marked reduction in plant operation, but this summer the decline was much smaller than in preceding years.

"Decreased takings of steel by the motor car manufacturers have been more than offset by heavy buying of steel pipe and rolling stock for the railroads.

"Pig iron production in July established a new record for the month, being t'wo per cent higher than in June. Larger production in July than in June has not been recorded since 1923.

"Automobile mahufacture has continued at record-breaking levels. The output of medium and high priced cars declined somewhat, due largely to factory shutdowns in order to adjust ,machinery for making new models, but these losses were made up by increased production of smaller cars.

"Manufacturers of parts and accessories have shared in the general activity and the prosperity resulting from it. The production of a half-million cars and trucks in the United States and Canada in July clearly indicates that forecasts made early in the yea.-*ere not tbo optimistic.

"Building construction, after several months on a descending scale, took another spurt in July. when total contracts in the 37 states east of the Rocky Mountains, according to Dodge figures, totaled $652,436,100. This was the second largest monthly total on record, and showed an increase of 12 per cent over the total for July, 192f., and, of 20 per cent over June, 1929."

In a special survey covering California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Utah, the education and research department of the association finds that 72 per cent of reporting concerns had larger sales in July than in June, while the remaining 28 per cent reported smaller volume. Comparing July, l9D, with July, 1928, 7l per cent had larger volume and 29 per cent smaller volume in July of this year.

Eighty per cent had larger collections in July, l9D, than in the preceding month. Seventy-four per cent indicated larger volume of receivables outstanding on August l, l9D, as compared with outstandings on August l, lgn. Fewer business failures in the next six months were anticipated by 52 per cent. For the next six months, 64 per cent look for improved sales and collections, while 27 per cent expect no change and nine per cent anticipate less favorable conditions.

The survey say,s that reports from these Western states are particularly favorable. Cr'op prospects are good in Idaho, Oregon and Washihgton, and are fair in Utah and California, according to the survey.