How Lumber Looks

Derpite the continued surplus of production over orderr in both the Douglar fir and Southern pine regionr, lumber pricel remain rteady. But they have not strengthened.

In fact a few particular items have weakened rlightly, but this ir nothing more than a normal f,uctuation in pricer and doec not indbate a general decline, either actual or1 prorpective.

On the other hand, there ir no reason to expect a general advance this fall. Some items may go up the same as others may go dowrr, but the market as a whole is not rtrong enough to support substantial advancer either for individual iteme or for the lirt aa a whole.

The obreryation offered by one buyer early this month that "lt would be easier to force the market down a dollar than up a dollar," holds juet as good today as it did then, but the significant fact about that particular exprersion of philorophy is that the general market hal NOT been forced down a dollar, or any part of a dollar.

It is scldom that the California market is forced down between September I and the middle of December, and thie year probably will prove no exception. Demand for lumber in California and Arizona ir jurt ar active now ar it was 9O days ago. This territory has no seasonal weather to contend with and building operations chow no aigne of abating this winter.

The car rituation in the Northwert is a little easier than 3O dayr ago and rail ahipperr are getting better deliverier on stock 'coming from Oregon. This may be responsible for the fact that there has been a slight weakening in some upper grades of fir, particularly No. 2 V. G. f,ooring and green clean.

Earlier in the fall there waa a ecarcity of these itemg in California and buyerr sought to protect their customers and ordered heavily. Now trhat there orders are being delivered, it is apparent that the market is not quite in porition to absorb them all.

However, fir commons are holding firm at pricer that have prevailed through the early fall. Mi[r stilt are aomewhat independent and insisting on the going pricer. Lumber L plentiful but at the sarn€ time romewhat hard to buy.

The redwood market is just ar firm today as it war 3O dayr ago and 60 dayr ago-a bit firmer, if anything. Thit gituation is accentuated by the car shortage in Humboldt and Mendocino countiea. Mitls are having a hard time to get box can. There !€!em,! to be an ample rupply of fatr and gondolas, and rome mills now are rhipping uppcl grades of redwood in thece open cars, covering them with reveral layers of commons. ln this way a great many buyers have been asked to take a rmall quantity of commonr along with their ordetrs of uppers so as to inrure prompt rhipment. Thir practice has been carried out ruccerfully for California bueiness, but har not been resorted to on tranrcontinental shipmentr.

----Southern California has been experiencing a peculiar local situation due to the car shortage at the San Pedro and Wilmington terminalr. Docks and wharyer have becn congerted with Iumber and earlier in the month ceveral veselr were tied up for dayr at a time unable to rmload. The railroads have brought relief in the shape of additonal car rupply in the last week and to some extent the congertion ir being cleaned up. However, many retailers in all the territory rerved through the big routhetrr terminalr have been required to wait for deliveriec.

One commodity that has taken a dirtinct dump in the last 3O days ir shingles. Prices have dropped fully 25 centr per thousand, or square, and the market rhowr no rign of early recovery. This ir not a local situation, either, ar rGports indicate a decided weakneu in ehingleo in other padr of the country.

Market conditions in the country at large are rpotted. California and the Atlantic Coart are the two dirtrictr that are buying heavily. In fac{, they are the principal elementr of rupport in the present market. The Middle Wert ir not buying its normal volume, and due to the errtwhile ehortagc of cars the mills did not take on a lot of rail orderr, contenting themselves with water bueinesr. Thir appliee, of coune, to tidewater rnills, primarily, but many interior millr have been shipping to tidewater by rail co a! to share in cargo business.

Cargo orders now constitute nearly 4O per cent of all businesr of the fir mills, but rail burineu ir relatively ro weak that all the nw buriness taken together ic rtmning from 15 to 20 per cent below production. Millr are piling up a surplur of lumber.

The rarne ic true of Southern Pine. Ordere are rubstantially below production, but rhipmentclue to lack of can -are elightly below orderr. The car situation har beeri relieved somewhat in the South in the last few weekr and mills that have rejected business on account of threatened inabititv to ehip now are accepting orden again. Thir nay