State of the world cities 2012/2013 by Honorata Grzesikowska Architect and Urbanist

The Report maps out major policy steps to promote a new type of city – the city of the 21st century – that is a ‘good’, people-centred city. One that is capable of integrating the tangible and more intangible aspects of prosperity, and in the process shedding off the inefficient, unsustainable forms and functionalities of the city of the previous century. By doing this, UN-Habitat plays a pivotal role in ensuring that urban planning, legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks become instruments of prosperity and well-being.

United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) P.O. Box 30030, Nairobi, Kenya Tel: +254 20 7621 234 Fax: +254 20 7624 266/7

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The Report advocates for the need of cities to enhance the public realm, expand public goods and consolidate rights to the ‘commons’ for all as a way to expand prosperity. This comes in response to the observed trend of enclosing or restricting these goods and commons in enclaves of prosperity, or depleting them through unsustainable use.

PROSPERITY

C TIV

What this new edition of State of the World’s Cities shows is that prosperity for all has been compromised by a narrow focus on economic growth. UN-Habitat suggests a fresh approach to prosperity beyond the solely economic emphasis, including other vital dimensions such as quality of life, adequate infrastructures, equity and environmental sustainability. The Report proposes a new tool – the City Prosperity Index – together with a conceptual matrix, the Wheel of Prosperity, both of which are meant to assist decision makers to design clear policy interventions.

PROD U

However, when prosperity is restricted to some groups, when it is used to pursue specific interests, or when it is a justification for financial gains for the few to the detriment of the majority, the city becomes the arena where the right to shared prosperity is claimed and fought for. As people in the latter part of 2011 gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol, in front of London’s St Paul’s cathedral, or in New York’s Zuccotti Park, they were not only demanding more equality and inclusion; they were also expressing the need for prosperity to be shared across all segments of society.

EQUI TY A ND SO CI AL

The City is the Home of Prosperity. It is the place where human beings find satisfaction of basic needs and access to essential public goods. The city is also where ambitions, aspirations and other material and immaterial aspects of life are realized, providing contentment and happiness. It is a locus at which e prospects of prosperity and individual and collective well-being can be increased.

ITY ABIL N I TA US S L TA N E

N SIO LU NC

Prosperity of Cities

STATE OF THE WORLD’S CITIES 2012/2013 Prosperity of Cities

STATE OF THE WORLD’S CITIES 2012/2013

IN F R A S T R U C T U R E

STATE OF THE WORLD’S CITIES 2012/2013 Prosperity of Cities

World Urban Forum Edition

STATE OF THE WORLD’S CITIES 2012/2013 Prosperity of Cities

Copyright © United Nations Human Settlements Programme, 2012. All rights reserved United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) P.O. Box 30030, Nairobi, Kenya Tel: +254 20 7621 234 Fax: +254 20 7624 266/7 Website: www.unhabitat.org

DISCLAIMER This is a World Urban Forum edition of the State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013: Prosperity of Cities. The final edition will include the foreword by the Secretary General of the United Nations, maps, bibliography, index and all illustrative text boxes. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or regarding its economic system or degree of development. The analysis, conclusions and recommendations of this reports do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme or its Governing Council. The Report is produced with official data provided by governments and additional information gathered by the Global Urban Observatory. Cities and countries are invited to update data relevant to them. It is important to acknowledge that data varies according to definition and sources. While UN-HABITAT checks data provided to the fullest extent possible, the responsibility for the accuracy of the information lies with the original providers of the data. Information contained in this Report is provided without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and noninfringement. UN-HABITAT specifically does not make any warranties or representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any such data. Under no circumstances shall UN-HABITAT be liable for any loss, damage, liability or expense incurred or suffered that is claimed to have resulted from the use of this Report, including, without limitation, any fault, error, omission with respect thereto. The use of this Report is at the User’s sole risk. Under no circumstances, including, but not limited to negligence, shall UNHABITAT or its affiliates be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages, even if UN-HABITAT has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

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Front cover pictures Equity and Social Inclusion: © Meunierd/Shutterstock.com Quality of Life: © 2012 Peter Herbert/fotoLIBRA.com Infrastructure: © Paul Smith/Panos Pictures Productivity: © Atul Loke/Panos Pictures Environmental Sustainability: © Anne-Britt Svinnset/Shutterstock.com Back cover picture © Claudio Zaccherini/Shutterstock.com Part One pictures Page 8: © Ragma Images/Shutterstock.com Page 10: © Denis Mironov/Shutterstock.com Page 25: © Christian Als/Panos Pictures Part Two pictures Page 34: © Joyfull/Shutterstock.com Page 36: © Claudio Zaccherini/Shutterstock.com Page 48: © Philip Lange/Shutterstock.com Page 59: © Philip Lange/Shutterstock.com Page 68: © Clive Shirley/Panos Pictures Page 78: © Edwina Sassoon/fotoLIBRA.com Part Three pictures Page 88: © Steve Forrest/Panos Pictures Page 90: © Denis Mironov/Shutterstock.com Page 103: © Chris Stowers/Panos Pictures

Contents Foreword iv Introduction v Acknowledgements vi

Part One: Prosperity and Urban Trends

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

Urban and Regional Trends

Urban Change in Developed Countries

Urban Change in Developing Countries

Part Two: Prosperity of Cities

Productivity and the Prosperity of Cities

Urban Infrastructure: Bedrock of Prosperity

Quality of Life and Urban Prosperity

Equity and the Prosperity Of Cities

Environmental Sustainability and the Prosperity of Cities

Part Three: Policies for Prosperous Cities From Comparative Advantage to Urban Prosperity

88 90

Policy-Related Factors Underlying the Prosperity of Cities Innovating to Support the Transition to the City of the 21st Century

92 103

Urban Prosperity Through Planning and Design

108

Empowering Laws and Institutions for Urban Prosperity

114

Statistical Annex

122

iii

Foreword This is a time of crises. This is also a time for solutions. Indeed, the world is currently engulfed in waves of financial, economic, environmental, social and political crises. Amidst the turmoil, however, we are also witnessing valiant and creative attempts at different levels and by different actors to seek for solutions. The State of the World’s Cities Report 2012 presents, with compelling evidence, some of the underlying factors behind these crises that have strongly impacted on cities. It shows that a lopsided focus on purely financial prosperity has led to growing inequalities between rich and poor, generated serious distortions in the form and functionality of cities, also causing serious damage to the environment – not to mention the unleashing of precarious financial systems that could not be sustained in the long run. The Report proposes a fresh approach to prosperity, one that is holistic and integrated and which is essential for the promotion of a collective well-being and fulfilment of all. This new approach does not only respond to the crises by providing safeguards against new risks, but it also helps cities to steer the world towards economically, socially, politically and environmentally prosperous urban futures. In order to measure present and future progress of cities towards the prosperity path, the Report introduces a new tool – the City Prosperity Index – together with a conceptual matrix, the Wheel of Prosperity, both of which are meant to assist decision makers to design clear policy interventions. To varying degrees of intensity, cities have been hit by different crises. However, this Report tells us that cities can also be a remedy to the regional and global crises. When supported by different tiers of government, and in the quest to generate holistic prosperity, cities can become flexible and creative platforms to address these crises in a pragmatic and efficient manner. Prosperity, in this sense, can be seen as a Pharmakon – both a cause of the problem and a remedy. As per this ancient Greek construct, when used properly, it can help decision-makers to steer cities towards well-balanced and harmonious development.

In this Report, UN-Habitat advocates for a new type of city – the city of the 21st century – that is a ‘good’, peoplecentred city, one that is capable of integrating the tangible and more intangible aspects of prosperity, and in the process shedding off the inefficient, unsustainable forms and functionalities of the city of the previous century. By doing this, UN-Habitat plays a pivotal role in ensuring that urban planning, legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks become an instrument of prosperity and well-being. This is a time of solutions to the numerous challenges that confront today’s cities. If we are to take measures that will make a difference to the lives of the billions of people in the world’s cities, and to future generations, we need sound and solid knowledge and information. This Report provides some of these crucial ingredients. I am confident that it will serve as a useful tool in the necessary redefinition of the urban policy agenda at local, national and regional levels. I do believe also that it will provide valuable insights in the search for urban prosperity and related policy changes in the years ahead. The Report is a bridge between research and policy, with inputs from more than 50 cities, individual scientists and institutions, particularly the Directorate-General for Regional Policy from the European Commission, and other partner institutions around the world that participated actively in the preparation of this study. I would like to thank them for their immense contribution. I would also like to thank the Government of Norway for its financial support. The partnerships that have evolved during the preparation of this report are part and parcel of, as well as critically essential in, creating the building blocks of a more sustainable prosperity, one that is shared by all. UN-Habitat is determined to sustain and consolidate such partnerships as we collectively chart a better future.

Joan Clos Under-Secretary-General, United Nations Executive Director, UN-Habitat

Introduction As the world moves into the urban age, the dynamism and intense vitality of cities become even more prominent. A fresh future is taking shape, with urban areas around the world becoming not just the dominant form of habitat for humankind, but also the engine-rooms of human development as a whole. This ongoing evolution can be seen as yet another assertion, albeit on a larger scale, of the time-honoured role of cities as centres of prosperity. In the 21st as in much earlier centuries, people congregate in cities to realize aspirations and dreams, fulfil needs and turn ideas into realities. Prosperity in this broader, organic sense transcends narrow economic success to encompass a socially broadbased, balanced and resilient type of development that combines tangible and more intangible aspects. Taken in this multi-dimensional sense, urban prosperity tightens the links between individuals and society with their everyday environment, i.e., the city itself. Amidst multiple challenges facing cities today, a focus on poverty reduction and/or responses to the economic crisis is gradually shifting to a broader and more general understanding of the need to harness the transformative dynamics and potentials which, to varying degrees, characterize any city anywhere in the world. How to rekindle momentum, optimize regenerating potential, enhance strategic position in the international business sphere, polishing both image and appeal – in other words, how to foster prosperity – has become the main thrust behind urban development. In this endeavour, every city will inevitably find itself on its own specific and unique historic course. Still, a common set of conditions can be found prevailing in all cities, which enable human beings to flourish, feel fulfilled and healthy, and where business can thrive, develop and generate more wealth. These conditions mark out the city as the privileged locus of prosperity, where advancement and progress come to materialize. This Report focuses on the notion of prosperity and its realisation in urban areas. More specifically, this Report advocates a shift in attention around the world in favour of a more robust notion of development – one that looks beyond the narrow domain of economic growth that has dominated ill-balanced policy agendas over the last decades. The gist of this Report is the need for transformative change towards people-centred, sustainable urban development, and this is what a revised notion of prosperity can provide. This focus on prosperity comes as institutional and policy backgrounds are in a state of flux around the

world. Prosperity may appear to be a misplaced concern in the midst of multiple crises –financial, economic, environmental, social or political – that afflict the world today. It may appear as a luxury in the current economic predicament. However, what this Report shows with compelling evidence is that the current understanding of prosperity needs to be revised, and with it the policies and actions deployed by public authorities. UN-Habitat suggests a fresh approach to prosperity, one that reaches beyond the sole economic dimension to take in other vital dimensions such as quality of life, infrastructures, equity and environmental sustainability. The Report introduces a new statistical instrument, the City Prosperity Index, measuring the prosperity factors at work in an individual city, together with a general matrix, the Wheel of Urban Prosperity, which suggests areas for policy intervention. As the privileged locus of prosperity, the city remains best placed to deal pragmatically with some of the new, postcrisis challenges. With adequate backing from higher tiers of government, the city appears as a flexible, operational, creative platform for the development of collaborative agendas and strategies for local responses to the global crisis. Cities can offer remedies to the worldwide crises – if only we put them in better positions to respond to the challenges of our age, optimizing resources and harnessing the potentialities of the future. This is the ‘good’, people-centred city, one that is capable of integrating the tangible and more intangible aspects of prosperity- in the process shedding the inefficient, unsustainable forms and functionalities of the previous century or so – the city of the 21st century. This Report comes at a transitional juncture in the international agenda: in the wake of the ‘Rio + 20’ conference on the environment and development, and ahead of a fresh, updated Habitat Agenda due in 2016 (Habitat III). Against this background, this UN-Habitat Report calls on countries and cities to engage with a fresher notion of prosperity in their respective agendas. Prosperity involves a degree of confidence in the foreseeable future. As the world recovers from one of its worst-ever economic crises and a variety of interrelated predicaments, we must find a new sense of balance and safeguard against risks of further turmoil. With dominant roles in economic, political and social life cities remain critical to setting our nations on a more inclusive, productive, creative and sustainable course.

Acknowledgements Core Team

Support Team

Director: Oyebanji O. Oyeyinka

Contributors: Wandia Seaforth, Obas John Ebohon, Cecilia M. Zanetta, Kaushalesh Lal, Dina K. Shehayeb, Olumuyiwa Alaba, Sai Balakrishnan, Maria Buhigas, Christopher Horwood

Coordinator: Eduardo López Moreno Task Manager: Ben C. Arimah Statistical Adviser: Gora Mboup

Statistics: Omondi Odhiambo, Joel Jere, Julius Majale, Wandia Riunga, John Obure, Anne Kibe, Wladimir Ray, Kaushalesh Lal

Principal Authors: Eduardo López Moreno, Ben C. Arimah, Gora Mboup, Mohamed Halfani, Oyebanji O. Oyeyinka

Maps: Maharufa Hossain, Jane Arimah

Research: Raymond Otieno Otieno, Gianluca Crispi, Anne Amin

Administrative Support Team: Beatrice Bazanye, Anne Idukitta, Elizabeth Kahwae, Jacqueline Macha, Mary Dibo

City Prosperity Index: Gora Mboup, Wandia Riunga, John Obure Editor: Thierry Naudin

UN-HABITAT advisory and Technical Support

Africa: Femi Olokesusi (Accra, Ibadan and Lagos);Yeraswork Admassie (Addis Ababa); Hany M. Ayad (Alexandria); Madani Safar Zitoun (Algiers); Albino Mazembe (Beira); Aldo Lupala (Dar es Salaam); Faustin Tirwirukwa Kalabamu (Gaborone); Rosemary Awuor Hayanga (Johannesburg); Allan Cain (Luanda); Godfrey Hampwaye and Wilma Nchito (Lusaka); Alfred Omenya (Nairobi); C. Fernandez (Praia)

Elkin Velasquez, Laura Petrella, José Chong, Claudio Acioly, John Hogan, Raf Tuts, Ana Moreno, Alioune Badiane, Mariam Yunusa, Roi Chiti, Axumite Gebre-Egziabher, Kibe Muigai.

International Advisory Board Patricia Annez; Mark Redwood; Billy Cobbett; Lamia Kamal-Chaoui; Edgar Pieterse; Amin Y. Kamete; Smita Srinivas; Alfonso Iracheta; Yu Zhu; Dina K. Shehayeb, Inga Klevby, Maha Yahya, Javier Sanchez-Reaza

Asia and Arab States: Saswati G. Belliapa (Bangalore); Francisco L. Fernandez (Cebu); Yanping Liu and Yuehan Wang (Chongqing); Amelita Atillo (Davao); Pelin F. Kurtul (Gaziantep); Dung D. Dzung (Ho Chi Minh City); Satyanarayana Vejella (Hyderabad); Syed Shabih ul Hassan Zaidi. (Lahore); Lan Jin and Yanping Liu. (Shenzen); Centre for Livable Cities (Singapore); Omar Khattab (Kuwait City); Ali Shabou, Nashwa Soboh, Kamal Jalouka, Deema Abu Thaib, (Aqaba and Amman); Sinan Shakir A. Karim (Basra); Mona Fawaz and Nisrene Baghdadi (Beirut); Ahmedou Mena (Doha); Darim. Al-Bassam and Jalal Mouris (Dubai); Dara al Yaqubi (Erbil); Falah Al- Kubaisy (Muharrak); Rana Hassan and Ismae’l Sheikh Hassan (Saida).

Financial Support Government of Norway

Special Technical Contribution Directorate-General for Regional Policy from the European Commission various background documents from: Corinne.Hermant, Zoé BUYLE-BODIN, Christian.SVANFELDT, Antonio G. Calafati, Celine Rozenblat, Moritz Lennert, Gilles Van Hamme, Uwe Neumann Birgit Georgi

Additional Contributions: Thematic Background Papers:

Input to boxes: Cilla Ng, Inga Klevby, José Chong, Zeltia Gonzales, Estefania Villalobos, Laura Petrella; Alexy Romero Garcia C.; Francisco Perez Arellano,

Brian H. Roberts; Pengfei Ni; Robert M. Buckley and Achilles Kallergis; David Simon, Michail Fragkias, Robin Leichenko, Roberto SánchezRodríguez, Karen Seto and Bill Solecki, Susan Parnell and Matthew Sharp; Ivan Turok.

Design and page layout: Bounford.com (UK)

City Reports for policy analysis: Latin America and the Caribbean: Francisco Perez Arellano (Guadalajara);Ana Raquel Flores (Ciudad Del Este); Vladimir Morales Gonzalez (Valparaíso);Flávio José Nery Conde Malta (Santos); Ibarra Rolando Mendoza (Panama City); Oscar Bragos (Rosario); Tito Alejandro Alegría Olazábal (Tijuana); Grethel Castellanos (Santo Domingo); Haydée Beltrán Urán (Medellín); Isabel Viana (Montevideo); Miguel Coyula (Havana); Carlos Foronda (La Paz); Alberto José Tobío (Guarenas); Luis Delgado Galimberti (Lima); Alain Philippe Yerro (Fort-De-France)

Part One

Prosperity and Urban Trends

Chapter 1.1

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

might well on their own call into question the relevance and even the viability of a Report on prosperity. This proliferation of risks might even challenge the conventional notion of “Cities as the Home of Prosperity”, i.e. where, by definition, “successful, flourishing, or thriving conditions” prevail. As people in the latter part of 2011 gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square or Madrid’s Puerta del Sol, in front of London’s St Paul’s cathedral or in New York’s Zuccotti Park, they were not only demanding more equality and inclusion; they were also expressing solidarity with fellow citizens that belong with the“99 per cent” (the vast majority) as opposed to the “one per cent” (those with vastly disproportionate shares of wealth and decisionmaking capacity). These movements highlighted the inherent risks of ill-balanced growth or development policies, and their failure to safeguard prosperity for all. Throughout history, cities as seats of power have served as stages for protests and the recent social movements are no exception. Demographic concentrations in dense urban spaces allow critical masses of protestors to congregate and air new ideas, highlighting cities’ role as sounding boards for positive social change. This At best, points to another of the prosperity promises of a prosperous as conventionally city – not just a more understood seems to be productive socio-economic an unnecessary luxury use of space and the built in a time of crisis. At worst, prosperity can environment, but also one be seen as a harbinger that safeguards the city’s of yet another singlerole as a public forum minded pursuit of purely where plans and policies economic prosperity can be discussed and that might bring the challenged for the sake of a global economy to the brink again. more prosperous society.

The City is the Home of Prosperity Cities are where human beings find satisfaction of basic needs and essential public goods. Where various products can be found in sufficiency and their utility enjoyed. Cities are also where ambitions, aspirations and other immaterial aspects of life It is in every are realized, providing city’s interest to adopt organically integrated contentment and happiness types of development and and increasing the prosperity that transcend prospects of individual and the narrow confines of an collective well-being. accumulation-driven model However, when that benefits only a few to prosperity is absent or the detriment of the majority. restricted to some groups, when it is only enjoyed in some parts of the city, when it is used to pursue specific interests, or when it is a justification for financial gains for the few to the detriment of the majority, the city becomes the locus where the right to shared prosperity is claimed and fought for.

policy

FACT

Prosperity: A Misplaced Concern in the Midst of Crises? Never before had humankind as a whole faced cascading crises of all types as have affected it since 2008, from financial to economic to environmental to social to political. Soaring unemployment, food shortages and attendant price rises, strains on financial institutions, insecurity and political instability, among other crises, 10

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

Box 1.1.1 Crises, Cities and Prosperity The financial crisis: Borrowing, borrowing, borrowing Prominent scholars such as Joseph Stiglitz ascribe the 2008 financial crisis to rising income inequalities in countries around the world. In the face of stagnating real earnings, those households in the lower- and middle-income brackets were forced into more and more borrowing in order to maintain or improve living standards. With financiers experimenting with risky schemes at the other end of the credit chain, this situation led to a spate of defaults and, ultimately, the financial crash of 2008. The double irony of this crisis is that it originated in the efforts of a supposedly sophisticated financial system to give low-income categories a much-desired access to housing finance – and a foothold in prosperity.

These protests highlighted the fact that economic growth was a necessary condition for prosperity, though insufficient on its own: social and political inclusion is vital for prosperity. The environmental crisis: The convergence of climate change and urbanisation The current pattern of urbanization both in developed and developing countries converges on one and the same model: low density-based suburbanisation. Land speculation is associated with indiscriminate conversion of rural land to urban uses in the peripheries; this phenomenon combines with a growing reliance on individual motor vehicles and new-fangled middle-class lifestyles to expand urban areas way beyond formal city boundaries. A variety of economic agents can typically be found behind this trend, including real estate developers, home- and road-builders, national and international chain stores, among others, more often than not with support from banks and finance houses. Wasteful expansion of cities in endless peripheries is a major factor behind climate change. Beyond the physical threats from climate change, some cities stand to face an array of additional risks related to the provision of basic services and public goods (water supply, physical infrastructure, transport, energy, etc.), affecting industrial production, local economies, assets and livelihoods. Climate change may have ripple effects across many sectors of urban life, affecting the potential for prosperity of the more vulnerable populations: women, youth, children and ethnic minorities.1

The democratic crisis: “We are the 99 per cent!” The recent crisis is more than just an economic one. More fundamentally, it has exposed a number of risks to social justice, fairness, participation and, ultimately, democracy. Systematic decision-making in favour of those better-off is, in itself, a form of democratic deficit, and one that has led to popular movements like New York’s Occupy Wall Street. The movement “calls for a society organized around the needs, desires, dreams, of the 99 per cent, not the one per cent.” The other major uprisings of 2011 – the Arab Spring in North Africa and the Middle East, and Spain’s own Indignados – were also motivated by similar demands for better and deeper democracy as essential for overall prosperity.

Cities: Remedy to the Global Crises

with attendant employment and income generation. If urban responses to economic crises are to be effective on a local scale with positive regional or national repercussions (‘multiplier effects’), then efficient, multi-way institutional, policy and budget linkages are required between all relevant

If anything, the recent crises have demonstrated that cities around the world are, to varying degrees of intensity, exposed at least as much to the destructive as to the more beneficial effects of international markets, including social and political repercussions. In this sense, these crises did more than expose systemic market failures: they also highlighted major imbalances at the core of economic policy-making.2 When responding to such crises, national macroeconomic policies definitely have a major role to play through countercyclical public expenditure, strengthening bank supervision and financial regulations, introducing progressive income taxation, and reinforcing worldwide financial governance mechanisms, among other solutions. However, responses to global crises must also allow for a vigorous role for cities. So far, cities have been perceived as the ‘engines’ of national economies and there is no reason to depart from that view. Indeed, urban authorities find themselves, at least notionally, in a position to boost production in the real sector of the economy at local level,

FACT

Cities are a remedy to the global crises. They provide ready, flexible and creative platforms that can mitigate the effects of regional and global crises in a pragmatic, balanced and efficient way. Cities can act as the fora where the linkages, trust, respect and inclusiveness that are part of any remedy to the crisis can be built. Acting locally in different areas and spaces, urban responses to the crisis can be structured and included in national agendas for more efficiency, with better chances of flexible responses and more beneficial effects. Although not immune to divisive partisanship and ideologies that can paralyze decision-making, cities find themselves in more privileged positions than national governments to negotiate and agree on responses with local stakeholders. They can forge new partnerships and local social pacts which, in turn, can strengthen national governments in the face of global challenges.

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

policy

Cities can devise a number of safeguards against a variety of socioeconomic risks. Municipal authorities can prioritize expenditures on social security nets, local/regional infrastructure and other types of development, with a view to securing longer-term growth while stimulating consumption and/ or employment in the short term.

policy

Cities can also deploy safeguards against the risks international markets may bring to bear on local socioeconomic conditions, deploying redistributive policies in close collaboration with central government in order to reduce income gaps and other local structural problems.

FACT

This edition of the State of the World’s Cities Report presents a fresh perspective on prosperity based on five dimensions – productivity, infrastructures, quality of life, equity and environmental sustainability.

China: busy traffic on one of Beijing’s boulevards. Wide avenues such as this bring a sense of space to city centres but increasing wealth has led to a massive growth in private car use. © Yu Yang/Shutterstock.com

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

tiers of government. In this respect, proper alignment of central and local government expenditures at city level can facilitate transfers and their effective use by urban authorities.

policy

Shared urban prosperity puts people first, values the tangible and intangible aspects of development, promotes inclusive economic growth, protects human rights, ensures enabling equitable development, cares for the natural environment, reduces disaster risks and vulnerabilities for the poor and builds resilience to adverse forces of nature. This new city – the city of the 21st century –creates harmony between the five dimensions of prosperity and enhances the prospects for a better future.

Re-Thinking Urban Prosperity A poverty-stricken plumber in Hyderabad (India), a factory worker in Bogotá (Colombia), a middle manager in Madrid (Spain), a businessman in Fortaleza (Brazil), a car mechanic in Nairobi (Kenya) − all five will have aspirations to prosperous lives. However, prosperity means different things to different people around the world. Whatever the individual perception, regardless of culture and civilization, prosperity refers to a sense of general and individual socioeconomic security for the immediate and foreseeable future, which comes with the fulfilment of other, nonmaterial needs and aspirations. Yet, the prevailing view continues to confine prosperity to the realm of economics; a limiting view that shuts out other dimensions that are integral to human well-being and necessary for individual and collective fulfilment. If anything, the 2008 financial crisis has amplified the need to include other, non-economic dimensions in the understanding and measurement of prosperity. This Report introduces a new gauge for the degree of prosperity in the cities of the world. Known as the City Prosperity Index and developed by UN-Habitat, this new instrument combines the five dimensions of prosperity as understood in this Report and as subsumed in measurable indicators. The index pinpoints strengths and weaknesses, in the process suggesting where policy action can address imbalances. Re-thinking prosperity in those terms requires a shift away from the current dominant perspective, which is outdated and unsustainable on many grounds with its combination of cheap fossil fuel, heavy dependence on the motor car, highly segmented urban forms, socially and economically segregated spaces, endless urban peripheries that consume land, resources and in many cases natural protected areas – and all largely steered by private, not public interest.

policy

The ‘good’, people-centred city of the 21st century stimulates local job creation, promotes social diversity, maintains a sustainable environment and recognises the importance of public spaces. In short, this is a city that comes with a change of pace, profile and urban functions and provides the social, political and economic conditions of prosperity – a city that is all-encompassing and accessible to everyone.

wellbeing of the population? Put differently, what are the manifestations or outcomes of a prosperous city? In general terms, a prosperous city offers a profusion of public goods and develops policies and actions for a sustainable use and equitable access to ‘commons’.3 More specifically, several elements which come to mind guide what constitutes the UN-Habitat conceptualization of Prosperity. First, a prosperous city contributes to economic growth through productivity, generating the income and employment that afford adequate living standards for the whole population. Second, a prosperous city deploys the infrastructure, physical assets and amenities – adequate water, sanitation, power supply, road network, information and communications technology etc. – required to sustain both the population and the economy. Third, prosperous cities provide the social services – education, health, recreation, safety and security etc. – required for improved living standards, enabling A fresh the population to maximize approach individual potential and to prosperity is needed, lead fulfilling lives. not just to respond Fourth, a city is only to the effects of the crisis and safeguard prosperous to the extent against new risks, but that poverty and inequalities also to steer the world are minimal. No city can towards economically, claim to be prosperous socially, politically when large segments of the and environmentally population live in abject prosperous urban futures. poverty and deprivation.

policy

Conceptualizing Prosperity: The UN-Habitat Approach Prosperity implies success, wealth, thriving conditions, and wellbeing as well as opportunity. In any urban setting, a key question will arise: What are the essential conditions and elements that are required for a city to thrive, or for an urban area to be described as prosperous, or for the 13

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Table 1.1.1 Defining a prosperous city A prosperous city is one that provides Productivity

Contributes to economic growth and development, generates income, provides decent jobs and equal opportunities for all by implementing effective economic policies and reforms

Infrastructure development

Provides adequate infrastructure – water, sanitation, roads, information and communication technology in order to improve urban living and enhance productivity, mobility and connectivity

Quality of life

Enhances the use of public spaces in order to increase community cohesion, civic identity, and guarantees the safety and security of lives and property

Equity and social inclusion

Ensures the equitable distribution and redistribution of the benefits of a prosperous city, reduces poverty and the incidence of slums, protects the rights of minority and vulnerable groups, enhances gender equality, and ensures civic participation in the social, political and cultural spheres

Environmental sustainability

Values the protection of the urban environment and natural assets while ensuring growth, and seeking ways to use energy more efficiently, minimize pressure on surrounding land and natural resources, minimize environmental losses by generating creative solutions to enhance the quality of the environment

This involves reducing the incidence of slums and new forms of poverty. Prosperous cities are equitable and socially inclusive. The benefits and opportunities that come with a prosperous city are equitably (re)distributed. A prosperous city ensures gender equality, protects the rights of minority and vulnerable groups, and ensures civic participation by all in the social, political and cultural spheres. Fifth, the creation and (re)distribution of the benefits of prosperity do not destroy or degrade the environment, instead the city’s natural assets are preserved for the sake of sustainable urbanization.

infrastructure may be well-advanced, but inaccessible to large portion of the population, therefore compromising the notion of equity. In other, frequent situations, a city may be economically efficient, enhancing job opportunities, but the natural environment is neglected. Since socioeconomic conditions keep changing on a local and a broader scale, they will have an effect on one or more of the five dimensions of prosperity, and it will be for policy interventions to restore the balance. In this endeavour, urban authorities will find that the various interlinkages and interdependencies between the five dimensions can The ‘hub’ also be of a positive nature. is made For instance, provision of the local urban of water and sanitation power functions, both in informal settlements public (municipal and will improve both equity other institutions and agencies, laws and and quality of life, and regulations, including even the environment. urban planning) and This points to the non-public (civil society, ‘natural’ or ‘spontaneous’ business, etc.).they interdependencies between combine in a variety of the five dimensions along ways according to local needs and conditions, the outer rim of the with the synergies wheel. These can also between them be strengthened with a resulting in innovative multiplier effect through institutional or policy deliberate, well-targeted practice, all for the sake interventions through the of the public interest and shared prosperity. ‘hub’ of the wheel, i.e., the

FACT

The ‘Wheel of Urban Prosperity’ Prosperity, as defined by UN-Habitat, is a social construct that materializes in the realm of human actions. It builds deliberately and conscientiously on the objective conditions prevailing in a city at any time, wherever located and however large or small. It is a broader, wide-ranging notion that has to do with well-balanced, harmonious development in an environment of fairness and justice. As described above, prosperity takes in all urban functions as subsumed in five main categories. Since shared, balanced development is a crucial feature of prosperity, none of the dimensions must prevail over the others and all must be kept roughly ‘equal’ – for the sake of a smooth ‘ride’ on the path of prosperity. In practice, of course, it is a rare city where the five dimensions will be found equal at any point in time, and this is where policy interventions will be called for, as suggested graphically by the profile of the city’s specific ‘city prosperity index’. For instance, 14

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

Figure 1.1.1 The Wheel of Urban Prosperity URBAN PROSPERITY

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combined power functions at work in the city. For instance, building a school and a covered market next to a poor area is likely to have multiplier effects across the five dimensions of shared prosperity. This goes to show that far from some new ‘model’ or ‘utopia’ or branding/marketing technique, UN-Habitat’s ‘wheel of prosperity’ symbolises the well-balanced development of the five dimensions, the current condition of which is graphically represented in the City Prosperity Index (CPI – see below). The ‘outer rim’ absorbs the cumulative forces transmitted through the ‘spokes’ – the five dimensions of prosperity. At the centre is the ‘hub’ – the local urban power functions, with four interrelated roles: (i) ensuring the prevalence of public over any other kind of interest); (ii) controlling the direction,

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pace and momentum of the ‘wheel’; (iii) ensuring the balanced development of the five ‘spokes’ and associated synergies; and (iv) in a two-way relationship, absorbing and amortising any ‘shocks’ transmitted by the ‘spokes’. The ‘hub’ brings together the power functions (e.g., laws, regulations UN-Habitat and institutions, urban suggest that the project for the planning, civil society, city of the 21st century trade associations, special is one of achieving agencies, etc.) associated balanced prosperity, with the five ‘spokes’. implying making the In this role the ‘hub’ ‘wheel’ well rounded represents human agency with synergetic spokes and a dynamic hub. in all its embodiments.

policy

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013 an end to “GDP fetishism” and, one year later, the British government announced that it would, for the first time, survey happiness in addition to purely economic measures.6 Prosperity is a more complex notion, one that cannot be captured through straightforward indices that measure how much money people earn or how many cars they own. A ‘prosperous’ life includes other non-material, non-tangible dimensions, like having a voice in shaping the future of one’s city, having meaningful relationships, belonging to supportive communities, and having the resources and capabilities to transform your dreams into concrete realities. Recent efforts have attempted to include these other dimensions of prosperity for a more accurate representation of societal progress. Table 1.1.2 presents a summary of these methods and approaches.

It holds the five ‘spokes’ together and endeavours to maintain their balance and symmetry.

Measuring Prosperity: Attempts, Failures and Progress Prosperity remains one of humankind’s most enduring pursuits across time and space. But it is only in the past few decades that decision-makers, academics, practitioners and populations have started to measure this important dimension of human development. This has been a journey of learning, trial and error. The adage “what gets measured, gets done” has injected a sense of urgency in the pursuit not just of prosperity per se, but also of an operational definition complete with specific indicators. More than 70 years ago in 1937, the Nobel-winning metric of gross domestic product (GDP) was purported to be the ‘mother of all statistics’, capturing the notion of prosperity through total production of goods and services. Although GDP spread rapidly and was widely accepted for decades, it is becoming more and more apparent that this aggregate is too narrow to provide the accurate measure of a society’s overall well-being today. In 1972, the king of Bhutan declared he was interested in measuring ‘Gross National Happiness’ (GNH). In 1990, US economist Mahbub ul-Haq convinced future Nobel laureate Amartya Sen to create “an index as vulgar as GDP but more relevant to our own lives.”4 In 2006, China developed its own “Green GDP Index”, which seriously challenged the validity of the standard aggregate, once environmental aspects were factored in.5 In 2009, Joseph Stiglitz called for

The UN-Habitat “city Prosperity Index” Cities can take different paths to prosperity. UN-Habitat views development as a non-linear, non-sequential and complex process and recognizes that development paths are differentiated and unique.7 Still, actions and policies implemented by governments to increase prosperity and the outcomes of these policies can be measured to provide an indication of how solid or weak are the factors of prosperity available to any individual urban area.

Fetching water in Debre Zeit city, Ethiopia. Quality of life and prosperity require an urban growth with commensurate infrastructure and basic services. © Eduardo Lopez Moreno

FACT

Conceptually, the notion of prosperity still belongs within the realm of economic growth, but it has to do with more than just economic well-being and material progress. Trying to integrate other tangible and less tangible human dimensions of development, such as well-being and prosperity, has been an ongoing story for more than 40 years, with efforts to create new metrics and approaches that add nuance to standard GDP.

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

Table 1.1.2 Measuring Progress and Prosperity Human Development Index (HDI) United Nations Development Programme 1990

HDI combines indicators of life expectancy, educational attainment and income into a composite human development index. It is a single statistic that serves as a frame of reference for both social and economic development, ranking countries by level of “human development”.

Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) Think-tank Redefining Progress 1994

GPI was developed as an alternative system to GDP measurement. It is used as a more inclusive type of economics based on “True Cost” economics, looking how the increased production of goods, and expanding services have actually resulted in the improvement of welfare or well-being of the people.

Measuring Sustainable Development UNECE, OECD, EUROSTAT 2005

This is structured around the concept of capital, as measured under four main dimensions – economic, natural, human and social – that all pertain to sustainability. The idea is to make this concept operational for public policies.

Prosperity Index Regional Research Institute, USA 2006

This index measures regional economic prosperity and tracks performance at city level, assessing competitiveness and identifying opportunities to improve business. Although based on economic prosperity, the index includes three main components: business, people and place.

Commission on the measurement of economic performance and social progress, France 2008

This Commission proposed to shift emphasis from measuring economic production to measuring people’s well-being, against a background of sustainability. The Commission concluded that well-being is better assessed on the basis of income and consumption rather than production.

Legatum Prosperity Index Legatum Institute, UK 2008

The index purports to measure national prosperity based on wealth and well-being, using a composite indicator. It ranks 110 countries based on eight “pillars of prosperity”: economic conditions, entrepreneurship and opportunity, governance, education, health, safety and security, personal freedom, and social capital.

Redefining Prosperity UN Sustainable Development Commission 2009

Prosperity is redefined based on three aspects: a) fulfilment of material needs; b) the social and psychological dimensions that contribute to an enhanced sense of identity, meaning, belonging and hope; c) individual capability to flourish in more prosperous environments.

National Well-Being Accounts Index New Economics Foundation, UK 2009

The index measures social progress based on subjective well-being. It combines two types of data: personal (emotional well-being, satisfying life, vitality, resilience, self-esteem) and social well-being (supportive relationships, trust and belonging).

Global City Index (GCI) Foreign Policy Magazine, Kearney & Chicago Council on Global Affairs 2010

The GCI measures the international standing of cities along five dimensions: business activity, human capital, information exchange, cultural experience and political engagement. The index results in competitiveness rankings of cities in terms of business opportunities and economic innovation.

Sustainable Development Index Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK 2010

This index combines four sets of data: sustainable consumption and production, climate change and energy, protecting natural resources and enhancing the environment, and creating sustainable communities. The index is a composite of a total 68 indicators.

Various sources, compiled by UN-Habitat, 2012.

UN-Habitat’s “City Prosperity Index” (CPI) does not only provide indices and measurements; it also enables decision-makers to identify opportunities and potential areas along the path of prosperity. The CPI includes various indices and indicators that are relevant to urban areas, and important for prosperity-oriented public policy-making.

Being based on the UN-Habitat concept of prosperity, the CPI includes the five dimensions (the ‘spokes’ in the ‘wheel’) of urban prosperity. Each is further disaggregated in various variables and sub-indices. UN-Habitat has adopted an incremental approach to the development of this index. Two of the dimensions – productivity and quality of life – correspond to components of the Human Development 17

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Box 1.1.2 Cities and Human Development Cities with high HDI values appear both as engines for positive change and as beneficiaries of prosperity. In the developing world, some urban areas are becoming so prosperous that they have closed the gap with, or even surpassed the HDI of cities in developed nations. For example, Seoul, South Korea, features a HDI as high as 0,911, higher than that of many European cities, particularly the Southern and Eastern regions where HDI readings, though high, come under 0.900 in cities such as Lisbon, Athens or Warsaw.

FACT

UN-Habitat analysis shows that some cities in the developing world are becoming more prosperous (with higher HDI values), reflecting very significant progress on health and education, and at times even in the absence of sustained economic growth.

City and National HDI values HDI Index 1.0

Country HDI 2010

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Index (HDI), and have been used to compute the “City Human Development Index” (CHDI). The three other dimensions – infrastructure, environmental sustainability and equity – are made of various key indicators as indicated in Table 1.1.3. Although more refinement is still needed in terms of what indicators are included in the index and with which respective The Human weightings, those that have Development Index been selected offer the (HDI) is typically higher possibility of disaggregating in cities compared with the different dimensions relevant national averages. Indeed, cities are in general of prosperity, in the richer than the rest of any process identifying policy country. However, differences intervention areas.8 between City and country Although in many cases HDI measures are much the prosperity of a city will steeper in nations with lower go hand in hand with that than those with higher HDI measures. of the country, significant variations in CPI measures

can be found in cities in the same country, and this goes to show that national aggregates do not necessarily reflect what happens in different regions or cities. Most existing prosperity indices provide estimations for countries only (see Table 1.1.2). By comparison, the UN-Habitat City Prosperity Index is unique in the world for two reasons: (i) it focuses on individual cities, as opposed to countries, and (ii) it is concerned with prosperity as measured across five dimensions, of Despite which the local economy is their high only one, as opposed to the production of goods sole business environment. and services, European cities are experiencing The resulting CPI values many crises –financial, can be regrouped in six employment, housing, distinct brackets that range among others – and it from cities with ‘very solid’ is expected that their prosperity factors to those respective CPI values where those factors are will reflect this in the near future. found to be ‘very weak’.9

FACT

policy

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

Table 1.1.3 The UN-Habitat City Prosperity Index Dimensions

Definitions/variables

Productivity

The productivity index is measured through the city product, which is composed of variables such capital investment, formal/informal employment, inflation, trade, savings, export/import and household income/ consumption. The city product represents the total output of goods and services (value added) produced by a city’s population during a specific year (details of the methodology can be found in the complete Report).

Quality of life

This index is a combination of three sub-indices: education, health sub-index and public space.

Infrastructure development

This index combines two sub-indices: one for infrastructure proper, and another for housing.

Environmental sustainability

This index is made of three sub-indexes: air quality (PM10), CO2 emissions and indoor pollution.

Equity and social inclusion

This index combines statistical measures of inequality of income/consumption, (Gini coefficient) and inequality of access to services and infrastructure.

Cities with very solid prosperity factors (0.900 and above): In the world’s most prosperous cities the five ‘spokes’ are well-developed overall, with very little variations among them. Urban power functions such as good governance, urban planning, laws, regulations and institutional frameworks ensure that no particular dimension of prosperity gains prevalence to the detriment of the others. More specifically, they feature high volumes of goods and

services as well as strong economic fundamentals and high productivity. Their populations live longer and are well educated. Infrastructures are available and the environment is well managed. These cities are well governed and ensure safe, secure environments. It is clear that the five ‘spokes’ of urban prosperity are kept together in balance and at a right pace by a ‘hub’ that has the collective interest as its core. When the equity index is included in the CPI, the findings show that urban equity and prosperity are closely linked: not unsurprisingly, cities that do well on the first

Figure 1.1.2 Cities with very solid prosperity factors CPI Index (with five dimensions)

Productivity Index

Infrastructure Development Index

CPI Index (with four dimensions)

Quality of Life Index

Environmental Sustainability Index

Equity Index

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FACT

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In broad terms, the classification of cities by CPI values results in regional brackets with various cities in the developed world featuring solid prosperity factors (CPI: 0.900 or higher), a majority of African cities with a very weak readings, constituting the last two groups (CPI: 0.600 or below). In between a large number of Asian and Latin American cities make up the third and fourth groups (with CPI values of 0.700–0.799 and 0.600–0.699, respectively).

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

FACT

All the cities in this group feature very high Gross National Incomes (GNI) per capita (from US$ 25,478 for New Zealand to US$ 58,810 for Norway) and they produce a substantial share of the country’s GDP (e.g., Brussels – admittedly an exception – contributes as much as 46 per cent of Belgium’s GDP). The economic power of some of these cities is comparable to that of many national economies. Estimated GDP equivalents in Tokyo and New York are similar to those of Canada or Spain, while London’s GDP is higher than those of Sweden or Switzerland.

four dimensions of prosperity (with very solid prosperity factors) seem to be more equitable. In most cities of this group, inequality is relatively low, as reflected in low Gini coefficients (typically below 0.4, the exception being New York where inequality is significantly steeper (0.5)). When the equity dimension is taken into consideration, the CPI remains high for all cities (i.e., above 0.800), but only half remain with ‘very solid’ prosperity factors (i.e., CPI above 0.900). Cities with solid prosperity factors – first category Recycling is a vital service in modern city dwelling. (CPI: 0.800–0.899): Cities in this bracket feature high © EGD/Shutterstock.com CPI values. The five ‘spokes’ of prosperity are connected, generating a selfreinforcing, cumulative momentum along the Figure 1.1.3 path of prosperity. The Cities with solid prosperity factors – first category minute variations between Productivity Index Infrastructure Development Index CPI Index (with five dimensions) the ‘spokes’ is evidence Environmental Sustainability Index Quality of Life Index CPI Index (with four dimensions) of the efficiency of the 1.0 ’hub’, i.e., relatively strong institutions, 0.9 responsive legal and 0.8 regulatory frameworks 0.7 and large availability of

Equity Index

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FACT

Cities with solid prosperity factors belong to countries with different stages of economic development and different HDIs, with Kazakhstan featuring the highest (0.884) and China, Turkey and Brazil the lowest (0.663, 0.679 and 0.699, respectively).

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

Box 1.1.3

policy

Cities in emerging economies such as Brazil or China combine high economic growth and strong infrastructure, and are expected to move faster along the path of prosperity – but then, for the sake of balanced development, they must tackle inequalities and environmental degradation. They also must look to improve quality of life through more ample provision of public goods.

Promising African cities Among the 20 African cities included in UN-Habitat’s CPI sample, Cape Town, Johannesburg, Cairo and Casablanca are the only ones featuring solid prosperity factors. Cairo’s current political turmoil highlights the need for a more integrated pathway and more balanced growth with some dimensions (quality of life and infrastructure) progressing much faster than others (equity and social inclusion). Morocco, on the contrary, has embraced political change with a new constitution that enhances civil liberties and expands the notion of prosperity, which stand to benefit Casablanca and other cities. South African cities have experienced significant economic growth, but in the past two decades life expectancy has declined substantially, affecting quality of life.

performance in terms of prosperity. When the equity index is included in the CPI, both cities score below 0.800. This suggests that, although prosperity factors remain on the whole solid, they are somewhat weaker. While inequality is historically entrenched in most Latin American cities, it is a recent phenomenon in Russia, in the extended aftermath of economic liberalization. public goods. Cities in Southern and Eastern Europe such Cities with solid prosperity factors – second category as Lisbon, Athens, Warsaw, Budapest, Prague, Bucharest (CPI: 0.700–0.799): This group is heterogeneous, with and Moscow feature in this bracket, along with others in some cities showing a ‘less coordinated’, ill-balanced Latin America and Asia: São Paulo, Mexico City, Almaty development in the ‘spokes’. This comes as the result (Kazakhstan), Shanghai, Seoul and Ankara. of institutions, legal and regulatory frameworks and However, it is important to note that high inequalities urban management practices that are being consolidated in Moscow, Mexico City and São Paulo interfere with their and because of this; they cannot hold together all the elements of the ‘wheel’ to operate with stability. Heterogeneity is also Figure 1.1.4 related to the stage of Cities with solid prosperity factors – second category development of the Productivity Index Infrastructure Development Index CPI Index (with five dimensions) Equity Index relevant countries. Environmental Sustainability Index Quality of Life Index CPI Index (with four dimensions) Measured by HDI 1.0 readings, significant variations occur between 0.9 countries like Jordan 0.8 (0.884) and Indonesia 0.7 (0.600), for instance. 0.6 0.5

FACT

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Most of the cities in this group are located in Asia: Amman, Bangkok, Hanoi, Yerevan, Beijing, Jakarta and Manila. Four African cities are feature: Cape Town, Johannesburg, Cairo and Casablanca. Kiev in Ukraine is the only city in Eastern Europe.

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

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Interestingly, the capital Figure 1.1.5 cities of these two Cities with moderate prosperity factors countries do not feature Productivity Index Infrastructure Development Index CPI Index (with five dimensions) Equity Index such extreme variations Environmental Sustainability Index Quality of Life Index CPI Index (with four dimensions) in their respective HDIs 1.0 (0.810 for Amman and 0.755 for Jakarta). 0.9 However, it is important 0.8 to note that inequality 0.7 is inconsistent with prosperity as understood 0.6 in this Report. When the 0.5 equity index is included 0.4 in the CPI, Cape Town and Johannesburg (which 0.3 both feature very high Gini 0.2 coefficients), drop from the 0.1 bracket of cities with ‘solid’ prosperity factors and join 0 the group with ‘weak’ or even ‘very weak’ prosperity factors, with CPI values of 0.590 and 0.479 respectively. Cities with moderate prosperity factors (CPI: 0.600–0.699): The difference infrastructure and environment in most of the cities in between ‘solid’ and ‘moderate’ prosperity factors this bracket. Production of goods and services is still too lies in wider discrepancies among the values of the low, a reflection of underdevelopment. Historic structural various components. This points to institutional and problems, chronic inequality of opportunities, widespread structural failures, as the ‘hub’ fails to keep the ‘spokes’ poverty, inadequate capital investment in public goods, at a relatively same ‘length’. Cities with less balanced and lack of pro-poor social programmes are critical factors development feature contrasted patterns, with a neat behind such low degrees of prosperity. divide between rich and poor. The city product of African cities in this bracket is low, In Nairobi, prosperity is compromised by steep as are the ratings for quality of life and infrastructure. Most inequality (Gini coefficient: 0.59), causing its CPI value to drop from ‘moderate’ to’ weak’ (0.673 to 0.593). Box 1.1.4 Cities with weak prosperity factors (CPI: 0.500–0.599): Much remains to be done there in terms of quality of life, Low production, highly available public goods Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, features a very low city product (0.34) that is almost half of those of Mumbai (0.645) or New Delhi (0.596). Still, this combines with very high readings for quality of life (0.85), infrastructure (0.895) and clean environment (0.894), similar to those for much richer cities like Auckland, Brussels, London or New York. With a very modest economic base, the city has been able to deliver sufficient public goods to reach a moderate degree of prosperity. This goes to show that various dimensions of urban prosperity can be deployed while economic growth remains relatively weak.

FACT

Most of the cities in this bracket – Tegucigalpa, Nairobi, Phnom Penh, Ulaanbaatar, Guatemala city, Yaoundé, Mumbai and New Delhi – feature low HDIs (below 0.62). While in most cities a moderate CPI value is associated with a low city product, in the case of the two Indian cities the low CPIs mostly reflect poor environmental conditions.

FACT

In Nairobi, prosperity is compromised by steep inequality (Gini coefficient: 0.59), causing its CPI value to drop from ‘moderate’ to’ weak’ (0.673 to 0.593).

Conceptualizing Urban Prosperity

Figure 1.1.6

policy

Cities with weak prosperity factors CPI Index (with five dimensions)

Productivity Index

Infrastructure Development Index

CPI Index (with four dimensions)

Quality of Life Index

Environmental Sustainability Index

Equity Index

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7

Poor performance of the ‘hub’ points to the need for more effective urban power functions such as governance, urban planning, laws, regulations, and institutions that can pave the way for more prosperous futures for these cities.

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like Monrovia (0.048), Antananarivo (0.171) or Conakry (0.133). In 2002, Zimbabwe recorded the lowest slum prevalence of the region, and one of the lowest of all the developing world (four per cent); poor governance, political instability and massive housing evictions in 2005 have raised that percentage to 17 per cent, mainly due to overcrowding; and yet, Harare features high infrastructure development (0.899), similar to that of emerging economy cities like Ankara, Manila, Mexico City or Mumbai. Quality of life in Harare is also very low, ak

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of these cities perform better on the environment indicator (low emissions of fine particles (PM10). Recent progress in Ghana in the economic and political spheres looks certain to improve the CPI value for Accra, which at the moment is low (0.533) due to poor economic performance (0.347). Addis Ababa features relatively low in all CPI components, and this relative uniformity reflects a fair balance among the ‘spokes’ (0.52 on average). The city continues to make progress, thanks to higher investment in infrastructure and construction, manufacturing and tertiary activities. This in turn paves the way for job creation, and it is for central government to ensure that this economic model, which involves several dimensions of prosperity, retains both momentum and good synchronization. Various cities/countries from this group have a recent past marred by The bulk of this bracket can be conflicts, political instability found in Africa: Abidjan, or economic crisis. The Accra, Addis Ababa, city product of Harare Dakar, Dar Es Salam, (0.246), not long ago a Harare, Kampala, very vibrant economic Lagos and Lusaka. Also centre, is almost as low as included are Dhaka, Kathmandu and La Paz. that of post-conflict cities

El Alto, Bolivia: a large and poorly serviced part of greater La Paz, where the population is 80% indigenous © Eduardo Lopez Moreno

FACT

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

reflecting a dramatic reduction in life expectancy (to 1970s levels). Similar declines are also observed in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Swaziland or Zambia. It is important to note that inequality further weakens the CPI values for Lagos, Harare and Lusaka. When the equity index is included in the CPI, all three cities move from ‘weak’ to ‘very weak’ prosperity factors (below 0.500). Cities with very weak prosperity factors (CPI below 0.500): Cities in this bracket feature contrasted patterns among the sub-indices in the CPI. For some, the dispersion of index values across the ‘spokes’ reflects institutional and structural problems. For others, the five dimensions of prosperity do converge, only at very low values, a hallmark of dysfunctional systems, institutional failures, sluggish economic growth as well as widespread poverty and destitution.

Figure 1.1.7

FACT

There are only five cities with very weak prosperity factors (CPI below 0.500) in UN-Habitat’s worldwide sample – Bamako, Antananarivo, Monrovia, Niamey and Conakry. Their common feature is that they have recently experienced various types of conflict with various degrees of intensity. In each of them, production, quality of life and infrastructure indicators are very low.

Cities with very weak prosperity factors CPI Index (with five dimensions)

Productivity Index

CPI Index (with four dimensions)

Quality of Life Index

Infrastructure Development Index

Equity Index

Environmental Sustainability Index 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

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Box 1.1.5 Visualizing the 5 dimensions of the CPI Productivity index

Equity index

Productivity index

Quality of life index

1.0

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Equity index

Quality of life index

0 Vienna

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Mexico City

0 Vienna Cairo Nairobi

Johannesburg Environmental index

0.5

Infrastructure index

Environmental index

Infrastructure index

environment appears to be the weaker point in an otherwise well-balanced pattern of prosperity – although at an overall lower level compared with Vienna. Similar interpretations can be derived from the pentagon to the left, which compares the relative performances of revealing the prosperity patterns for the Mexico and Johannesburg, again against Vienna’s.

The two pentagons represent the five ‘spokes’ of prosperity as measured in five cities and the extent to which they are imbalanced /balanced in relation to each other. The radar-shaped graphs suggest where policy interventions are required. For instance, Nairobi (to the right) performs well in terms of the environment and infrastructure, but less so on equity, productivity and quality of life. In Cairo, the situation is the reverse, as the

Chapter 1.2

Urban and Regional Trends

Urban Change in Developed Countries

More than Half of the World is Now Urban

Urban Population Growth is Next to Stagnant

It is really remarkable that only one century ago, two out of 10 people in the world were living in urban areas. In the least developed countries, this proportion was as low as five per cent, as the overwhelming majority was living in rural areas. The world has been rapidly urbanizing since then and, in some countries and regions, at an unprecedented pace. It was only two years ago that humankind took a historic step when, for the first time in history, the urban outnumbered the rural population. This milestone marked the advent of a new “urban millennium” and, by the middle of this century, it is expected that out of every 10 people on the planet, seven will be living in urban areas. Interestingly, only 60 years ago or so (1950), the number of people living in urban centres was slightly higher in the developed nations (54 per cent, or 442 million) compared with developing countries. Today, of every 10 urban residents in the world more than seven are found in developing countries, which are also hosts to an overwhelming proportion of humankind (82 per cent of the world’s population). Moreover, it is estimated that, between 2010 and 2015, some 200,000 people on average will be added to the world’s urban population each day. Worth noting is that 91 per cent of this daily increase (or 183,000) is expected to take place in developing countries.

In the more advanced nations, urban population growth is next to stagnant (0.67 per cent on an annual average basis since 2010), which represents an additional six million or so every year. In Europe, the annual increase is only two million. By comparison, the aggregate annual population increase in six major developing-country cities – New Delhi and Mumbai (India), Dhaka (Bangladesh), Lagos (Nigeria), Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of Congo) and Karachi (Pakistan) – is higher than Europe’s entire population. Population in North American cities was the least slow of all those in the developed world between 2005 and 2010, particularly in the United States (one per cent on average). The Growth, Decline and Prosperity of Cities: There is no clear association between the demographic growth or decline of cities and their degrees of prosperity. Although population numbers have declined in a number of cities in Western Europe, Canada and New Zealand, this did not affect living standards, which in some cases even improved. On the other hand, and as might be expected, population declines in In the last a number of cities in 20 years, the proportions of Eastern Europe and the European cities with United States of America demographic growth are strongly associated rates over one per cent with economic decay. The and of those with deterioration of inner population declines city conditions (deserted were comparable.

FACT

State of the Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cities 2012/2013

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Cities must create the conditions (and record accurate data) that will enable them to understand and anticipate trends, including the growth or decline of some areas or regions, if they are to be in a position to develop expansionary or recovery strategies.

China, Ruili, Yunnan Province. Dai minority threshing rice harvest in fields which are gradually being swallowed by this booming border city. ÂŠ Mark Henley/Panos Pictures

Urban and Regional Trends

Figure 1.2.1 Population density in Europe, 2001

Source: ORNL LandScan – cartography DG REGIO, European Commission.

residential areas and crumbling infrastructure) have all gone hand in hand with population declines. Growing Cities are Located in Growing Regions. Cities and the surrounding regions are typically interdependent economically and tend to share similar socio-economic and demographic trends. In most North American cities, surrounding regions tend to predominate over urban areas. In contrast, in Western Europe the prosperity of entire regions is largely dependent on a primate conurbation and the concentration of services and manufacturing that comes with it. Cities in the North will continue to attract migrants. European urban areas, Regional and national in particular, will continue to urban planning through feature low fertility rates and central government rapidly aging populations. plays a critical role in These demographic trends creating a system of are unmistakable and point cities and in determining to overall demographic the prosperity and growth of cities. decline.

Between 2005 and 2010, net international migration In the European Union, deaths counterbalanced the excess should outnumber births of deaths over births in 11 from 2015 onwards, putting developed countries, while an end to population growth contributing twice as much through natural increase. to population growth in Positive net migration will another nine countries.11 be the only demographic growth factor until 2035.10 With the ongoing economic crisis, the aggregate flow of immigrants to developed countries has slowed down from an annual 2.3 per cent average rate in 2000–05 to 1.7 per cent in 2005–10. Rising unemployment in some of the host cities/countries may cause governments to impose restrictions on immigration.12 It would be in the best interests of European countries/ cities to review immigration policies with a view to maximizing the benefits and reducing the more negative aspects of the phenomenon, with inclusionary social and political mechanisms to bring prosperity to all.

FACT

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State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Urban Change in Developing Countries

Caribbean is expected to reach 642 million, 566 million and 560 million, respectively. In an apparent paradox, by that same year 2025 Africa will still be the least urbanized region in the world (45 per cent of the population). Asia: Moving into the “Urban Century”: Half of the world’s urban population now lives in Asia. This region has accounted for about 65 per cent of the demographic expansion of all urban areas across the world since the beginning of the 21st Century. Undoubtedly, this is the “Asian Urban Century”.13 Large population concentrations in mega-cities are to remain a prominent feature in urban Asia (today, seven out of the 10 most populous cities of the world are in this region). In the recent past, Delhi and Shanghai have joined the league of ‘meta-cities’, those massive conurbations of more than 20 million people. It is expected that by 2020, another three Asian cities – Beijing, Dhaka and Mumbai – will have reached the 20 million mark. Latin America and the Caribbean: Inter-city migration predominates: This is the most urbanized region in the world (80 per cent of the total population, compared with Europe’s 73 per cent).The urban transition in this region was achieved in the early 1960s, or about 16 years before Western Asia (the second sub-region in the developing world to become predominantly urban), and 30 and 45 years respectively before Southern and North Africa (or, on current trends, some 70 years before the whole of Africa).

Divergent Urban Growth Patterns In the last decade, the urban population in the developing world grew an average 1.2 million people per week, or slightly less than one full year’s demographic growth in Europe’s urban areas. Asia dominated the picture, adding 0.88 million new urban dwellers every week. Africa was the second largest contributor with an additional 0.23 million per week, dwarfing Latin America and the Caribbean’s 0.15 million weekly increment. Africa: The urban population is set to outstrip Europe’s: In what promises to be one of the more remarkable forthcoming developments in the overall pattern of urbanization in Africa, the region’s population is poised to outgrow both Europe’s and Latin America’s, which was the first region to become predominantly urban in the developing world. In 2025, the aggregate urban population of Africa, Europe, Latin America and the

FACT

Urbanization in Africa has not yet brought the economic development and degree of prosperity that might have been expected. Inadequate education and physical infrastructure, combined with poor governance, have constrained the efficient use of productive resources, and the industrial development that might have come with it. At the same time, the ongoing urban economic momentum in Africa is a result of a number of the typical factors of prosperity at work in other regions of the world, such as economies of agglomeration, location advantages, and diversification of the economic base, albeit all in nascent form.

Convergent Urban Growth Patterns Cities are expanding in a discontinuous, scattered and low-density form that is not sustainable: A defining feature of cities in the developing world is an outward expansion far beyond African formal administrative cities must boundaries, largely connect to regional and global business propelled by the use networks, enhance of the automobile and quality of life, improve land speculation. A large basic infrastructure number of cities – whether and communication in Angola, Egypt, Brazil, networks, address China, or almost any other public transport deficiencies and country – feature very environmental land-consuming suburban conditions, and respond sprawling patterns that to inequality and often extend even to poverty issues, if they farther peripheries. A study are to turn into real on 120 cities shows that engines of national growth and prosperity. urban land cover grew,

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FACT

Asia is also confronted by the same urban paradox as Africa. Despite high concentrations of population in large cities, the continent ranks among the least-urbanized regions in the world (45 per cent urban). The tipping point for ‘urban Asia’ is expected to happen earlier though (around 2020s).

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The economic success of many countries/cities goes hand in hand with urbanization. Cities must give more attention to rising inequalities and the worrying trend of environmental degradation.

Urban and Regional Trends

FACT

Urban populations maintain high growth rates in the developing world, but the pace has slowed down, from just under three per cent in the year 2000 to 2.4 per cent in 2010, which is still three and a half times higher than the annual average population growth rate in developed countries.

La Paz, Bolivia sprawls ever higher up the mountain side. The metropolitan area, formed by the neighbouring cities of La Paz, El Alto and Viacha, is the most populous area of Bolivia. © 2012 Robert Gilhooly/fotoLIBRA.com

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

on average, more than double the growth of the urban population. Similar urban trends can be observed in other parts of the world. For instance, in Mexico, the urban

physical expansion of all urban areas over the last 30 years was estimated to be at around 7.4 per cent on an annual average basis, outstripping population growth by a multiple of nearly four.14 Cities are becoming endless expanses, with high degrees of fragmentation of the urban fabric that result in vast interstitial open spaces. At the periphery, residential neighbourhoods are characterized by lowdensity developments which, along with under-used spaces and fragmented built-up areas in the intermediate city-rings, are contributing to dramatic reductions in residential densities.

FACT

Latin America and the Caribbean will be nearly 87 per cent urban in 2050, by which time the annual average pace of growth in the urban population is expected to slow down to 0.3 per cent. Some cities already see their populations shrinking. Latin America and the Caribbean stands out as the only region where migration between urban areas is a significant determinant of urban population growth, accounting for nearly 50 per cent and due to several factors, chief among them the pursuit of prosperity.

Novel Urban/Regional Configurations and Prosperity

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Latin American cities must become more productive and generate local jobs, improve transport infrastructure and living conditions, short of which they will face prospects of population decline due to higher mobility from city to city. They must reduce entrenched inequalities while improving quality of life and environmental protection. More prosperous cities must articulate better their strategic advantages with national economic policies and enhance their creative capital to increase prosperity prospects.

Cities large or small have increasingly come to merge together to form new spatial configurations that typically take three principal forms: mega-regions, urban corridors and city-regions. Each on its own spatial scale, these three forms seem to act as nodes where global and regional flows of people, capital, goods and information combine and commingle, resulting in faster growth, both demographic and economic, than that of the countries

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Even though the region is more urbanized than Europe, GDP per capita (PPP) was nearly three times lower than the European Union’s in 2010. The main reasons include chronic inequalities and mass poverty, insufficient infrastructure, poor public services, inadequate connectivity, poor governance and fragile institutions.

Box 1.2.1 Novel configurations: A typology Mega-regions surpass mega- and meta-cities by population and economic output, combining large markets, skilled labour and innovation and amalgamating several cities within the orbit of the overall region. Example: Japan’s Tokyo-Nagoya-Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe region, with a population close to 60 million.

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Against this background, cities must accommodate demographic and spatial expansions, with a concomitant development of well-devised urban structures that would reduce transport and service delivery costs, optimize land use and support the deployment and/or protection of open spaces. Better connectivity, mobility and accessibility and wellplanned integration of land-use, density and transport have the potential to reduce energy consumption drastically, making cities more sustainable.

Urban corridors, a number of urban centres of various sizes are connected along transportation routes in linear development axes that are often linked to a number of megacities, encompassing hinterlands. New developments in some fringe areas experience the fastest growth rates and the most rapid urban transformation. Example: in Malaysia, the Kuala Lumpur-Klang corridor along the Klang Valley.

FACT

City-regions take on a larger scale than large cities, expanding beyond formal administrative boundaries to engulf smaller ones as well as semi-urban and rural hinterlands, and even merge with other intermediate cities, creating large conurbations that eventually form city-regions.

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Most urban plans and regulatory regimes in the developing world have been incapable of preventing the conversion of rural land to urban use in city peripheries. as a result, the reclassification of settlements from ‘rural’ to ‘urban’ has become the second most significant determinant of urban population growth and expansion in the developing world today.

Examples: São Paulo, Brazil; Cape Town, South Africa; Bangkok, Thailand.

Urban and Regional Trends

where they are located. These new configurations are more and more spatially connected and functionally bound by their economic and environmental ties, at times even socially and politically. They play an increasing role in the creation and distribution of prosperity far beyond their own specific geographic areas. Large urban configurations, as grouped in networks of cities, amplify the benefits of economies of agglomeration, increasing efficiencies and enhancing connectivity. They also generate economies of scale that are beneficial in terms of labour markets, as well as transport and communication infrastructure, which in turn increase local consumer demand.

FACT

A critical mass of people, ideas, infrastructure and resources acts as a magnet of development, attracting migrants, private firms, investors and developers. All of this enhances the prospects for more employment opportunities, wealth creation, innovation and knowledge, which are all major factors of prosperity.

and developing a strong regional vision for the whole large configuration. For instance, in the Pearl River Delta mega-region in China, each of the cities capitalizes on its comparative strengths, and contributes to the overall prosperity of the large configuration. Infrastructural development: Transport infrastructure improves

Enhancing Prosperity in Large Urban Configurations: The 5 Dimensions Large urban configurations concentrate so many resources and opportunities that give substance to the five dimensions of prosperity: productivity, infrastructural development, quality of life, equity and social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. Enhanced productivity: Planning large urban configurations as a ‘portfolio’ of functional and complementary areas of specialization can lead to more diversified economies, capitalizing on the comparative advantages of each city within the large agglomeration

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It is in a city’s interest to establish linkages with other neighbouring urban areas for the sake of complementary functions in order to acquire a strong collective regional identity, in the process achieving greater economic momentum than if they remain in isolation.

India, Tirupur, Tamil Nadu.Workers at a textile factory in Tirupur. There are some 7,000 garment factories in the city, providing employment to close to one million people. © Atul Loke/Panos Pictures

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

China: high-speed train in Lujiazui City, the financial district of Shanghai. Bullet trains in China substantially reduce transit times between cities, a 140 km journey taking only 30 minutes.

connectivity and spatially integrates the networks of cities that make up the urban/regional configuration. The large economically prosperous cities of Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing have invested in infrastructure to connect peripheral towns and Investments enhance the large urban in transport infrastructure and related configuration. Beijing has reforms, including finance extended 304 km of roads and regulations, deliver to link all ‘administrative major economic benefits, villages’ to the city (2005). contributing to poverty Shanghai has built 750 km alleviation and improving of highways to integrate quality of life. the rural hinterland (2007).

Guangzhou has completed extensive networks of roads, electricity and water distribution to all neighbouring rural settlements with more than 100 residents (2007).15 Equity and social inclusion: The market-driven logic of scale economies can interfere with equitable distribution, such as unregulated land markets, spatial segregation, extreme income inequalities and uneven development. Speculative real estate development in many of these large urban configurations effectively excludes not only the poor, Increasing but even the middle class, evidence from formal land markets, shows that creating an uneven interventions to patchwork of privilege and promote quality of life have clear underprivilege across large positive effects on urban areas. the other dimensions Quality of life: When of prosperity. city leaders cooperate, Unsurprisingly, progress rather than compete, in a on the other dimensions number of areas (crime, of prosperity is found to enhance quality of life. poverty, social inequalities,

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Cities and regional governments should encourage social and institutional innovations that can level out socio-spatial inequalities; this can include tax revenue transfers among urban authorities within the large urban configuration, or revenue-sharing, or equalization grants.

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New or strengthened, more effective local and regional institutions, new linkages and alliances across the three tiers of government, together with a comprehensive vision with clear plans favouring inclusiveness, are all crucial for equitable development and prosperity.

Urban and Regional Trends

transport systems, infrastructure) a more effective type of regional governance emerges that has direct implications on the quality of life both inside and outside the large urban configuration. Environmental sustainability: Environmental challenges transcend political/administrative boundaries. Yet, local authorities may find themselves with little power or resources to counter negative impacts of growth on the environment, particularly in the face of negative externalities generated by neighbouring cities.

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Looking beyond their own local interests and cooperating with the other jurisdictions involved, local authorities can improve competitive advantage while also preserving the environment.

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Working together, cities in a large urban configuration are in better positions effectively to protect, manage, and plan for physical environments that span multiple jurisdictions.

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The economic surpluses that large urban agglomerations derive from productivity gains can be channeled towards the protection of natural resources in the region, with the costs of maintaining these indivisible public goods equitably shared among the population.

Large Urban Configurations face specific risks Large urban configurations come with a number of wellidentified, specific risks: poor urban/regional planning, lack of coordination and deficient coping strategies in the face of social and fiscal disparities. Although these affect the whole population, the bulk of the risks fall disproportionately on the poor. Economic forces and spontaneous growth in the large urban configurations tend to sharpen spatial and social disparities, which are further compounded by inefficient use of land and other resources. Close links with world financial

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Should they fail to address those detrimental side effects, large urban configurations may find it increasingly difficult to attract investment, labour and skills, in the process compromising future prosperity.

markets and the impacts of global and regional economic crises shape ‘uneven geographies of development’.

Endnotes 1

UN-Habitat (2011) Cities and Climate Change: Global Report on Human Settlements 2011, Earthscan, London

United Nations (2010) World Economic and Social Survey 2010: Retooling Global Development, United Nation (DESA),New York, http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/ wess2010files/wess2010.pdf

Historically, water, biodiversity, knowledge and some other shared resources, including roads, sidewalks, highways and other public infrastructure have been considered as ‘commons’. ‘Commons’ are also intangible aspects such as clean environmental conditions, identity, cultural and symbolic spaces. More recently, from an institutional governance perspective, ‘commons’ are institutional arrangements such as ‘spaces’ for negotiation and participation, cultural norms and legal and statutory provisions.

Further compounding the problem of data dearth is the fact that most of the existing information was not collected in a uniform way to allow for comparisons of cities across countries and regions.

This classification has used data from multiple sources for the various components of the UN-Habitat City Prosperity Index, and this calls for a word of caution when interpreting some of these variations.

10 Eurostat (2008) ‘Ageing characterizes the demographic perspectives of the European societies’, Eurostat - Statistics in focus, 72/2008, Author: Konstantinos Giannakouris. European Commission, Brussels. 11 United Nations (2010) World population policies 2009, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York, http://www.un.org/esa/ population/publications/wpp2009/Publication_complete.pdf

Dickinson, E. (2011) ‘GDP: A Brief History’, Foreign Policy, January/February 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/gdp_a_brief_history.

The outcome of China’s “green GDP” index was that if air pollution, water shortages, desertification, and depletion of fish stocks and wildlife were factored into its GDP calculation, the 2004 GDP would have been 511 billion yuan (US$ 66 billion), or three per cent lower (SEPA and NBS, 2006).

Dickinson, 2011.

14 ONU-HABITAT and SEDESOL (2011), El Estado de las Ciudades de México, ONUHABITAT (Oficina Regional para América Latina y el Caribe), Rio de Janeiro,

Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, B. and P.G. Sampath (2010) Latecomer Development: Innovation and Knowledge for Economic Growth, Routledge, London and New York.

15 World Bank (2009) World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography, World Bank, Washington.

12 Ibid. 13 Mohan, R. (2006) Asia’s Urban Century: Emerging Trends, Key note address delivered at the Conference of Land and Policies and Urban Development, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge, Massachusetts, June 5, http://www.bis.org/review/ r060705e.pdf.

Part Two

Prosperity of Cities

Chapter 2.1

Productivity and the Prosperity of Cities

per capita fails fully to reflect the complex dynamics determining urban productivity.

Rising Urbanization and Increasing Productivity

Enhancing urban productivity is clearly desirable, as it improves competitiveness and, ultimately, the prosperity of any city. More productive cities are able to increase output with the same amounts of resources, generating additional real income that can raise living standards through more affordable goods and services. More specifically, the extra income and municipal revenue generated through productivity will enable any city to provide more, better services, such as housing, education and health services, social programmes and expanded infrastructure networks to support both productive and leisure activities. Urban productivity refers to the efficiency with which a city transforms inputs into outputs. However, because of limited data, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is commonly used as a proxy for urban productivity, with a city’s GDP measuring local production of Raising urban goods and services and productivity the population serving is not a goal in itself, but as a proxy for inputs a critical starting point related to human capital. to provide residents with However, it is important decent income for their basic needs and adequate to emphasize that, despite living standards.1 its expediency, GDP

As countries become more urbanized, both urban and national productivity will increase. As shown in Figure 2.1.1, rising urbanization and per capita income went hand in hand for the world as a whole over the past five decades. While the share of urban populations worldwide increased from 33 to 51 per cent between 1960 and 2010, per capita income increased by 152 per cent – from USD 2,382 to USD 6,006 – over the same period.4 However, as shown in Figure 2.1.2, the positive link between urbanization and national productivity holds mainly for high- and middle-income countries, signaling healthy urbanization dynamics fueled by prosperous cities acting as magnets for rural migration. Low-income countries display a more mixed trend. While these countries as a whole experienced a fast pace of urbanization from 1960 onward, GDP per capita remained largely unchanged, and even In OECD countries, the decreased, particularly GDP per capita is, on between 1970 and the average, 64 per cent year 2000. This would higher in towns and suggest that, rather than cities than in rural being attracted by better areas. Similarly, in economic opportunities European cities with populations over in urban areas (demand one million, average pull’), rural migrants GDP per capita is were only seeking refuge 25 per cent higher than from famine, war or other in the EU as a whole, calamities in what is often and 40 per cent higher referred to as ‘supply push‘ than that of their home nations.3 urbanization.5

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FACT

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Cities are naturally more productive than rural areas, as they benefit from larger pools of labour and talent, together with concentration efficiencies for both producers and consumers, and a more fluid exchange of ideas and innovations.2

Productivity and the Prosperity of Cities

more rapidly, reflecting The correlation the productivity gains between from improvements in urbanization rates and manufacturing and services productivity over the past as well as infrastructure five decades has also varied investments made during across and within regions, the inter-war years.6 reflecting the multiplicity of factors affecting both Brazil, a higher middlephenomena. income country, underwent a seemingly similar growthurbanization path until the late 1960s, when about half the population became urban. Thereafter, productivity neither grew significantly faster than urbanization, nor were productivity gains sustained, suggesting that urbanization alone may not guarantee continued productivity increases. China, a lower middle-income country, experienced a gradual increase in urbanization rates and productivity until the late 1970s, when urbanization reached 20 per cent. After the opening up of the economy in 1978, productivity increased at a much faster pace – GDP per capita grew by a factor of roughly 15 between 1978 and 2010, while the percentage of the urban population increased by a factor of ‘only’ 2.4 during the same period.

Figure 2.1.1

FACT

Urbanization and per capita GDP across countries as % of base year, 1960–2010 GDP per capita

Urban population (%)

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

10 20

05 20

00 20

95 19

90 19

85 19

70 19

65 19

0.0

Note: Both time series are indexed to 1 in the initial year. The y value of each series shows the unit change with respect to the base year. Source: UNDESA (2012) urbanization; World Bank (2012) GDP per capita.

The experience of the USA, Brazil, China and Kenya illustrates some of the specific factors at work in individual countries. Figure 2.1.3 shows that in the USA, urbanization rates and per capita income moved together until roughly 1940, when urbanization reached close to 60 per cent. Thereafter, per capita income grew

Shenzen, China: inside the factory of the biggest CCTV surveillance camera producer in China. © Bartlomiej Magierowski/Shutterstock.com

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Figure 2.1.2 Trends in urbanization and national GDP per capita – for various levels of income, 1960–2010 GDP per capita

5.0

Lower middle-income countries, 1960–2010

4.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Low-income countries, 1960–2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

3.5

4.0

Urban population (%)

Higher middle-income countries, 1960–2010

4.5

High-income countries, 1960–2010

4.5

5.0

Lastly, Kenya illustrates the experience of the limited number of low-income countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where productivity growth was negligible even though urbanization rates Despite continued to rise.7

FACT

In the USA, New York City contributes about 10 per cent of the country’s GDP and only 6.3 per cent of the total population. The 10 US cities with the largest GDP produce 36 per cent of the country’s goods and services and 24 per cent of the total population.8 São Paulo – Brazil’s economic and financial capital accounts for 10 per cent of the population, but 25 per cent of national GDP.9 In China, the 53 metropolitan regions with populations over one million contribute about 62 per cent of national non-farm GDP and 29 per cent of the country’s population. In Kenya, Nairobi, with 8.4 per cent of the country’s population, accounts for almost 20 per cent of the country’s GDP.10 Worldwide, the largest 100 cities accounted for around 30 per cent of the total production of goods and services in 2008, with the top 30 cities alone accounting for around 18 per cent.11

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Factors Affecting Urban Productivity The factors determining urban productivity can be split into two broad categories: external factors that give cities additional comparative advantage, including national and 38

differences in the pace of productivity growth with respect to urbanization, the urban dominance in economic productivity is evident across countries. In other words, urban areas contribute disproportionately to national productivity.

Productivity and the Prosperity of Cities

Figure 2.1.3 Urbanization and GDP per capita in selected countries GDP per capita 1,200

Urbanization

350 Kenya

USA

300

1,000

250

800

200 600 150 400

350

2,250 Brazil

2,000

300

10 20

05 20

00 20

95 19

90 19

85 19

80 19

75 19

70 19

60 19

200

100

China

1,750 250

1,500

200

1,250

150

1,000 750

100

500 50

250

10 20

05 20

00 20

95 19

90 19

85 19

80 19

75 19

70 19

60 19

10 20

05 20

00 20

95 19

90 19

85 19

70 19

65 19

60 19

Note: Both time series are indexed to 100 in the initial year. The y value of each series shows the percentage change with respect to the base year. GDP per capita is in constant 2000 USD. Source: Source: UNDESA (2012) urbanization; World Bank (2012) GDP per capita.

regional factors; and city-level factors that affect the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s production function, such as physical infrastructure, growth management, human capital, and innovative and entrepreneurship spirits.

cities a comparative advantage, and have served to spur the growth of resort cities around the world, from the French Riviera to Punta del Este (Uruguay), Eilat (Israel), Jurmala (Latvia) or Las Palmas (Canary Islands). The importance of Cities located national comparative in countries advantage is illustrated by with a well-educated labour force, sound infrastructure, the fact that, while 22 of mature financial markets, the top 30 largest urban stable political systems and areas (by population) were firmly grounded market located in emerging or mechanisms have higher developing economies in productivity than those 2008, only seven emerging located in countries that do not offer these conditions. economy cities ranked among the top 30 in terms

External factors

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External factors are largely beyond citiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; orbits of influence. Some of the differences in productivity among cities are explained by external factors, such as geographic location, as well as regional and national comparative advantages (Table 2.1.1). In terms of geographic location, coastal areas and river deltas have been preferred locations for cities. Currently, 14 of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 19 largest cities are port cities, which benefit from lower shipping costs and access through wider markets.12 Natural beauty and warmer weather also give 39

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

of urban GDP. The group Table 2.1.1 included Mexico City, External factors determining a city’s productivity São Paulo, Buenos Aires, Geographical Physical attributes Moscow, Shanghai, Mumbai comparative Climate and Rio de Janeiro, but advantage Location (e.g., ports, rivers) no Middle Eastern or Natural endowments Soils African cities. The average Minerals GDP per capita of these Energy emerging/developing Natural beauty country cities tends to be Archeological heritage substantially smaller than Regional Economic opportunities that of developed cities comparative Access to markets, investors and skills (Figure 2.1.4). advantage Regional hubs and/or clusters Subsequent expansion National Level of development in individual cities triggered comparative Pool of labour, skills, scientific and the emergence of ‘city advantage technological capital Social conditions (e.g., poverty, inequality) clusters,’ spurring the Economic infrastructure growth of second-tier cities such as Tianjin, Shijiazhuang Institutional conditions and Tangshan, which respectively developed around Beijing; Sound institutions Zhuhai, Dongguan and Foshan around the provincial Sound governance capital of Guangzhou; and Suzhou, Wuxi and Hangzhou in Political stability close proximity to Shanghai. These city clusters generated Maturity of financial markets agglomeration economies at the regional level, expanding Economic policies opportunities for trade and enhancing their (and their entire Ease of doing business region’s) attractions for investors.13 This cumulative effect Investment attractiveness Macroeconomic stability has resulted in dramatic differences in productivity between coastal cities and their counterparts in the hinterland, with Vision National leadership the growth differential surpassing 6 per cent, and the per capita fiscal Figure 2.1.4 revenues between the Population, GDP per capita and total GDP for selected metropolitan areas (2008) richest and the poorest provinces increasing from a 2008 GDP per capita (Thousands US$ PPPs) 100 ratio of 2:1 to 19:1.14

FACT

In China, national policies have played a key role in improved productivity in coastal cities. Three decades ago, China initiated policies designed to promote economic growth in those cities through a combination of industrialization and financial incentives, putting them in a better position to compete for foreign investment and infrastructure spending.

City-level factors affecting urban productivity

Cities play a key role in determining their own productivity, since many factors that affect urban productivity play out at the city level. Some of these factors are intrinsic to all urban areas – occurring naturally such as agglomeration and scale

Sphere surface represents total urban GDP (2008 US$bn PPPs)

New York

Boston

70 60

Atlanta

Los Angeles

Paris

Houston

Sao Paulo** Shanghai

Buenos Aires

Mexico City Tokyo

Istanbul

Cairo

Lagos

0 0

Karachi 10

Dhaka

Mumbai (Bombay)****

2008 Population (Millions)

** New data found from national data sources on GDP per capita in all major Brazilian Cities including Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. **** New data found from national data sources on GDP per capita in Mumbai (as well as Delhi, Bangalore and Kolkata in full rankings).

Source: Data from PricewaterhouseCoopers (2009)

Productivity and the Prosperity of Cities

Table 2.1.2

fact

The concentration of infrastructure, people as well as economic, social and cultural activities, leads to substantial benefits and efficiency due to agglomeration and scale economies.

City-specific factors determining a city’s productivity Intrinsic (natural) productivity growth factors

Extrinsic productivity growth factors

Economies of scale Provision of urban services Agglomeration economies Matching Sharing Learning

benefit from a wider range of potential employers, which lowers their risk of failure. Better matching between labour supply and demand results in greater flexibility, higher productivity and stronger growth for both workers and businesses. Cities also offer firms and residents access to a wider and better range of shared services and infrastructure.16

Technical efficiency Structural efficiency Land management policies Space efficiency Infrastructure investment Taxation Disaster prevention Operational efficiency Day-to-day urban management Service delivery Emergency management Institutional scaffolding Sound local institutions (e.g., decentralization) Sound governance Ease of doing business Quality of life (quality of education, safety, cultural life, liveliness) Attractiveness to knowledge-base industries Attraction and retention of the ‘creative class’

Extrinsic city-level factors

policy

Agglomeration economies give cities a competitive advantage over rural areas, as well as large cities over smaller cities. Agglomeration economies also benefit densely populated areas within cities.

policy

The structural productivity of cities in part rests upon an efficient supply of serviced land and reliable infrastructure, including transport, power, water and sanitation as will as ICT. These are critical enabling factors of urban development, as they constitute basic inputs of productive activity and, if deficient, constitute a limiting constraint on growth and private investment.

As cities continue to grow, higher productivity comes to depend on other factors, such as the ability of a city to maximize the technical efficiency of urban systems, both structural and operational. Effective management of agglomeration diseconomies – including congestion and rising input prices – enables the population and businesses to maximize their own productive potential. This has been the case in Mumbai, where serious attempts to create an international financial hub have been defeated by chaotic local transport conditions together with a prohibitive property (rental) market, with

Learning-based efficiency Creativity and innovation Research and development and technological development Entrepreneurship Vision Local leadership Local governance

economies (Table 2.1.2). Other city-specific factors depend on the city’s ability to capitalize on the natural productivity potential of agglomeration economies (‘extrinsic cityspecific factors’).

Intrinsic city-level factors15 One of the most obvious factors determining urban productivity is population growth. As a city’s population increases, so does the pool of workers and consumers. Agglomeration economies are the benefits firms derive from locating near customers and suppliers in order to reduce transport and communication costs and having access to a large labour pool. In larger cities, workers

fact

Lack of adequate infrastructure severely hinders the structural productivity of cities, limiting their capacity to achieve full potential.

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

rents twice as high as Manhattan’s pushing major financial companies away from the city.17 Several cities are actively expanding infrastructure as part of their development strategies. Kenya’s capital Nairobi is developing transport and communications infrastructure, with tangible results in terms of efficiency and productivity in various economic sectors. Similar efforts are underway in Guadalajara in central Mexico in a bid to attract more high-technology firms (electronics and communications). As a result, production structures are undergoing rapid change, and suburban landscapes with them.

For example, Rio de Janeiro’s newly established Operations Centre offers a glimpse of the way cities might be managed in the future.18 Conceived as a city-wide decision-making mechanism for emergency situations based on real-time information, the centre integrates information from multiple departments and government agencies, Visual displays of data from various urban systems, including surveillance cameras, together with maps, news updates, information about incidents and even simulations, facilitate real-time monitoring and analysis. Although initially designed for forecasting floods and other emergencies, the Centre is also used for dayto-day management of urban functions. Similar projects have already been implemented in New York City and in Gauteng (South Africa).19 With the decline of physical constraints on cities and communities as a result of technological progress in recent decades, creativity and innovation have arguably become major driving forces of productivity and economic growth in urban areas.

policy

The sound operation of cities, which encompasses traffic to emergency management, transport services, garbage collection, and the provision of urban services that offer critical support to social and economic activities are important determinants of the operational productivity of cities.

Figure 2.1.5 Factors hampering economic productivity

per cent

Corruption/lack of good governance

Cost of conducting business

Weak public institutions

Lack of appropriate knowledge & skills development

Deficient infrastructure

Poor access to information

0 Africa

Asia

LAC

Arab States

All regions

Productivity and the Prosperity of Cities

fact

New technologies offer opportunities for enhanced urban management, making cities more efficient and productive.

While physical factors are undoubtedly key determinants of productivity, local experts around the world emphasize the importance of ‘soft’ factors. Specifically, corruption and lack of good governance were identified as the most significant barriers to economic productivity by 25 per cent of the local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat (Figure 2.1.5). Additional factors included the high cost or difficulty of doing business, weak institutions, insufficient knowledge and skills, deficient infrastructure and poor access to information.

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Some cities are strengthening comparative advantage by showcasing their tangible and intangible heritage and exploiting their cultural identity, in an effort to bring about social and economic transformation.20 Doha, for example, is developing education and arts as part of the city’s new Cities that cultural vision.21 Gaziantep succeed in in eastern Turkey has educating, attracting started to use cultural and retaining creative individuals are more likely heritage as a touristic to prosper, as they not only asset for the purposes generate new ideas and of increased prosperity. products but, in turn, also Heritage restoration and attract high-value added rehabilitation enhance firms, such as knowledgequality of life while based industries. contributing to economic development.22 Talent, in turn, is a A city’s existing function of the quality of talent pool is school systems and higher a major determinant of education. Many cities in productivity. The more the developing world are highly skilled a city’s faced with brain drain population, the more likely it is to attract more talent. due to lack of local and national policies to retain highly qualified individuals. With the exception of By offering an Asia, where about half of environment the local experts perceive conducive for Research and that cities are making Development, cities can be key players in a knowledgeefforts to retain talent, the based economy, as there proportions are alarmingly is a direct link between low in other regions. Research and Development, There are exceptions, technology and productivity. though: Dubai emphasizes higher education and training in engineering and 23 information technologies. Chongqing has developed an ambitious training programme to support the transition of rural migrants from manual-based to skill-based types of work; by 2009, nearly one-third of migrants had benefited from the scheme.24

Some cities in developing countries have embraced the model of world-class innovation clusters, such as California’s Silicon Valley or Boston’s Route 128, to become ‘high-tech hubs’. Those that have met with success in this endeavour, such as India’s Bangalore, owe it to the same basic factors: the presence of top-quality academic and research institutions as well as substantial public and corporate investment. However, some observers claim that the city needs to pay more attention to infrastructure development and to ensure that the benefits of growth are more evenly distributed across all the population. Quality of life is rapidly emerging as a major asset in any efforts to attract and retain creative minds and businesses. It comes as no surprise that Toronto, San Francisco or Stockholm should consistently rank among the top performing cities in the world, since they are found as performing particularly well in a wide range of both economic and quality of life indicators, crime, green areas, air quality and life satisfaction. Outside the more developed nations, Singapore, with a similar balance of quality of life attributes, also ranks among the top world cities and the highest among developing countries.

FACT

Cities that succeed in fostering the exchange of ideas and innovations are able to tap into growth dynamics that fuel the creation of social and intellectual capital, thereby further contributing to their productivity.

policy

Urban Productivity: Some Challenges

fact

While China’s urban population increased from 17 to 39 per cent within a span of 40 years (from 1963 to 2003), the same change in urban population took 120 years in Great Britain and 80 years in the USA.26 Cities in more advanced countries are better positioned to capitalize on the agglomeration economies associated with population growth. This is not just because that growth is more manageable (typically around one per cent per year); but also because, as suggested by their high GDP per capita, these cities already have the physical and institutional support needed to capitalize on that demographic potential. Such capacities are generally not available in developing countries, leaving fast-expanding cities more exposed Top performing to the agglomeration cities derive diseconomies which their strengths not just from their status prevent them from as global economic fully capitalizing on the powerhouses or productivity potential from sophisticated associated with sustained infrastructure, but population growth also from their ability (typically an annual rate to enhance quality of life.25 of two to four per cent or

policy

fact

Productivity and the Prosperity of Cities

more). Despite the difficulty, some cities such as Shenzhen, China has made remarkable progress as indicated in the box below. This is the case of Dhaka the capital city of Bangladesh, with an average annual population growth of 4.4 per cent between 1990 and 2008. The ninth largest city in the world, Dhaka is one of the fastest growing in Asia. While some of the population growth has only reflected recent expansion boundaries, the Dhaka region has long attracted migrants from rural areas looking for opportunities in the booming metropolis. They provide much-needed labour in rapidly

growing sectors of the The fast pace economy. Fueled by the of urbanization continuous growth in the in developing countries financial, manufacturing presents both challenges and telecommunications and opportunities for the sectors, annual GDP productivity of cities. is an estimated USD75 billion.28 At the same time, Dhaka’s GDP per Not all cities are capita is the lowest of all fully capitalizing mega-cities, suggesting on the gains of population that agglomeration growth. diseconomies are likely to have offset a large proportion of the potential benefits associated Unfortunately, with strong population Dhaka’s experience is not exceptional. In the UNgrowth. In other words, Habitat survey, urban experts the productivity gains expressed scepticism associated with such regarding the progress being growth would have been made towards distributing remarkable if only Dhaka the benefits of a prosperous had been able to manage city. In cities like Bangalore, Ho Chi Minh and Chongqing, its growth more effectively the benefits of economic and distribute benefits it in prosperity are perceived to a more equitable manner. be captured mainly by the As shown in educated class; in Alexandria Figure 2.1.6, urban experts and Nairobi, mostly by the wealthy; while in Santo from all regions share the Domino, Dubai and Dar-essame grim assessment, with Salam, largely by politicians. Asia showing just a slightly more positive outlook – as 20 per cent of local experts perceive that economic prosperity is evenly distributed, compared to 14 per cent in the Middle East and roughly 7 per cent in Africa and Latin America.

policy

fact

Box 2.1.1 Shenzhen: Capitalizing on the gains of urban growth

fact

Shenzhen is one of the world’s fastest growing cities. During the past 30 years, Shenzhen’s GDP per capita ranked first among China’s major cities – averaging a phenomenal 27 per cent annual growth in urban GDP. Notably, the gains from Shenzhen’s fast pace of industrialization, urbanization and modernization have served to enhance the quality of life of all its residents. Income and living conditions have improved steadily. A new social security and public health insurance system has been successfully implemented. The city’s Gini coefficient has remained around 0.3, far less than that of the other cities on the mainland, denoting the city’s efforts to achieve an equitable growth pattern.27

Figure 2.1.6 Perceptions of experts regarding the distribution of economic prosperity per cent 20

How to raise a city’s productivity? Some general policy guidelines

While urban productivity is generally linked to stable macroeconomic conditions, sound institutions and adequate infrastructure, the focus of policy actions will depend on a city’s level of development. The management of urban growth is particularly important if rapidly expanding cities in early stages of development must be able fully to capitalize on the natural benefits of agglomeration economies and to reduce future inefficiencies.

ns eg io lr Al

LA C

ia As

ric

Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Policy Survey, 2011

State of the Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cities 2012/2013

Ineffective land management, inadequate spending on infrastructure, distorting taxation schemes and unduly cumbersome business regulations are detrimental to any cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s structural productivity.

It is important to identify any barriers that prevent any city from maximizing its productivity potential. In this regard, reducing traffic congestion, enhancing mass transit options and providing efficient, reliable services are

policy

As cities progress along the development path, they must facilitate production processes, addressing the technical and organizational inefficiencies that hinder structural and operational productivity.

Cities at the early stages of development need to strive towards enhancing good transport connectivity to its markets and providing access to adequate health and basic education to its population.

policy

The importance of sound governance structures to prevent corruption, together with strong local institutions, and businessconducive regulations, cannot be overemphasized.

China: docks on the Huangpu river, which flows through the centre of Shanghai. The Huangpu is a tributary of the Yellow River, joining it just before that river flows into the East China Sea, and thus the port has developed as a major import/export hub. ÂŠ Claudio Zaccherini/Shutterstock.com

Productivity and the Prosperity of Cities

major determinants in any city’s operational productivity. In addition, cities at intermediate levels of development should also enhance their technological capacities with a sharper focus on higher education and training as well as ICT infrastructure. While the factors at work are less easy to grasp than in the case of technical efficiency, experience from around the world points to the importance of supporting research and development in quality higher education and research institutions with both public and corporate investment. Promoting an entrepreneurial spirit, particularly among youth, is a desirable strategy for any city, regardless of development level or economic strength. Similarly, far from a desirable though ultimately dispensable aspiration, enhancing overall quality of life should be considered as essential to any economic development strategy if a city is to attract creative people and businesses. Leadership will always be always a critical factor, be it collective, as exercised through sound governance systems, or individual, i.e. relying on a particularly inspiring

politician or local figure. It takes leadership to change the prevailing urban paradigm and develop the transformative vision that will not just boost productivity of a city, or region, or even country, but also broadly distribute the associated benefits for the sake of shared prosperity.

policy

To be able to sustain higher wages and the associated standards of living, more advanced cities need to tap into innovation-driven productivity gains by supporting businesses’ ability to compete based on more sophisticated and innovative production processes and products.

policy

To enhance productivity, cities at all stages of development must seek support from a wide range of stakeholders, including various public authorities, other urban areas in the same region, and major economic actors, and set in motion the process of desirable change.

Endnotes 1

Bodin-Buyle Z., and C. Hermant-De Callataÿ (2011), Urban Prosperity and Quality of Life in European cities – Beyond GDP, Background paper prepared for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” as part of EU /UN-Habitat collaboration.

UN-Habitat (2010), State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011 : Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide.,Earthscan,London

European Commission (2009) Promoting Sustainable Urban Development in Europe: Achievements and Opportunities. European Commission , Brussels

World Bank (2012) World Bank Data: World Development Indicators & Global Development Finance, Online database last updated July 9 2012, http://data.worldbank.org

Buckley, R. and A. Kallergis (2011) The Wealth of Cities and Equitable Growth, background paper for ‘State of the World Cities Report 2012/13’

Buckley, R. and A. Kallergis (2011) op. cit.

PricewaterhouseCoopers (2009) ‘Global city GDP rankings 2008-2025’ PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook, November 2009, London. http://www. ukmediacentre.pwc.com/Media-Library/Global-city-GDP-rankings-2008-2025-61a.aspx

Cities Alliance (2006) Guide to City Development Strategies: Improving Urban Performance, Cities Alliance, Washington, D.C. http://www.citiesalliance.org/ca/sites/ citiesalliance.org/files/CA_Docs/resources/cds/cds-guidelines/role_of_cities.pdf

16 As noted by Turok, see Jacobs,J. (1969) The Economy of Cities, London, Jonathan Cape; Jacobs, J. (1984) Cities and the Wealth of Nations, New York, Random House; Porter, M. (1998) ‘Clusters and the new economics of competitiveness’, Harvard Business Review, December, pp.77-90. 17 Bloomberg Business Week, April 23, 2011 as quoted by Buckley, R. and A. Kallergis (2011) op. cit. 18 Rio’s Operation Centre builds upon advanced technologies created by IBM Research labs around the world. 19 Astroman (2011) City Government and IBM Close Partnership to Make Rio de Janeiro a Smarter City, January 3, http://www.astroman.com.pl/index. php?mod=magazine&a=read&id=871 20 Spirou, C. (2011) Urban Tourism and Urban Change: Cities in a Global Economy, New York, Routledge, 21 Mena, A. (2011) City Report on Doha. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 22 Kurtul,P. F. (2011) City Report on Gaziantep. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 23 Al-Bassam, D. and J. Mouris (2011) City Report on Dubai. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 24 Liu, Y. and Y. Wang (2011) City Report on Chongqing. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

10 Kenya’s 2008 GDP (PPP current International), total population, population in the largest city: World Development Indicators (2012); Nairobi’s 2008 GDP (PPP): PricewaterhouseCoopers (2009).

25 PricewaterhouseCoopers (2010) Cities of opportunities. PricewaterhouseCoopers/ The Partnership for New York City, Inc. http://www.pwc.com/us/en/cities-ofopportunity/2011/pdfdownload.jhtml

11 PricewaterhouseCoopers (2009) op. cit. 12 UN-Habitat (2008) State of the World’s Cities Report 2008/09: Harmonious Cities. UN-Habitat, Nairobi.

26 China’s urban growth rates: UNDESA (WUP): US’ and Great Britain’s urban growth rates: Buckley, R. and A. Kallergis (2011) op. cit.

13 ActiveUKChina (2012) Business and economic distributions and clusters, http://www. activeukchina.com/business-environment/business-and-economic-distributionsand-clusters/

27 J Jin, L. and Y. Liu (2011) City Report on Shenzhen. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”. 28 PricewaterhouseCoopers (2009) op. cit.

14 UN-Habitat (2008) op. cit. 15 This section draws heavily from Turok, I. (2011) Urban Employment and the Prosperity of Cities. Background paper prepared for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

Chapter 2.2

Urban Infrastructure: Bedrock of Prosperity

contributes to the sustainability and economic growth of urban areas, promotes the competitiveness of local businesses, improves labour productivity, enhances the investment climate in the city and contributes to its attractiveness. Physical infrastructure like roads, power and communication facilities, improves urban connectivity, which is essential to induce growth and reduce poverty. There is a positive link between the provision of infrastructure and the level of urbanization. More urbanized countries tend to provide more infrastructures (Figure 2.2.1).

Infrastructure is crucial for the development, functionality and prosperity of urban areas. It provides the foundation on which any city will thrive. Adequate infrastructure – improved water and sanitation, reliable and sufficient power supply, efficient transport networks and modern information and communication technologies (ICTs) –

Mexico: aerial view of Guadalajara.

fact

The cities that have managed to attract investment and enhance competitiveness in a highly globalized economy are those that have vastly improved the range and quality of their infrastructure. Conversely, poor infrastructure is a major impediment to development, poverty reduction and improved standards of living.

policy

Cities that fail to provide adequate infrastructure are less likely to be prosperous and sustainable in terms of balancing economic and social development, and environmental protection.1

Urban Infrastructure: Bedrock of Prosperity

Figure 2.2.1 Infrastructure provision is closely related to levels of urbanization Access to water(%)

Access to sanitation(%)

100

r=0.4907

60 50

Improved water

0 0

50 60 % urban

r=0.4778

Improved sanitation

0 100

Trends in the Provision of Urban Infrastructure: Important Regional Variations

50 % urban

100

from 4.1 per cent to 5.6 per cent of GDP. The average for Latin America and the Caribbean is under two per cent of GDP3, compared with Africa’s estimated 5–6 per cent.4

Differences in infrastructure across regions have implications for the prosperity of cities and reflect a variety of factors, including levels of income or development, economic growth, pace of urbanization, technical capacities and political commitment. The lowest levels of infrastructure provision are to be found in urban Africa (average water and sanitation coverage is 89 and 69 per cent respectively; electricity: 69 per cent; paved roads: 28 per cent; fixed telephone lines: 4 per cent; mobile telephones and Internet connectivity: 57 and 10 per cent, respectively). Asian cities have strongly invested in infrastructure development in the last few decades, achieving nearly universal provision of water, electricity and mobile telephone services. Infrastructure is the In particular, China has most common entry pursued a conscious point to achieving strategy of infrastructureprosperity in cities; led growth since the consequently, prioritizing 1990s. Investment in infrastructure is this area increased from part of long-term 5.7 per cent of GDP in economic development 1998 to 14.4 per cent in for most cities. 2006.2 During the same social development, period, India increased and environmental 1 protection. infrastructure spending

Makoko district of Lagos, Nigeria: a man bathes in fresh water sold to him by a nearby wealthy family. © Jacob Silberberg/Panos Pictures

policy

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Figure 2.2.2 Infrastructure coverage by region percentage of urban population with improved water per cent

percentage of urban population with improved sanitation

percentage of urban population with electricity

paved roads as a percentage of total

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

fixed telephone lines

mobile cellular subscriptions

per 100 inhabitants 25

per 100 inhabitants 120

100

or ld W

tri

As ia

ric a Af

or ld

tri

As ia

ric a Af

or ld W

tri

As ia

ric a Af

or ld W

tri

As ia

ric a

internet users

broadband (fixed) subscriptionsper

per 100 inhabitants 40

per 100 inhabitants 12

30 80

60 10

20 15

ld or

es tri

un co ng De

ng pi lo ve De

C LA

ia As

a ric Af

ld or

es tri

C LA

a ric

ld or

es tri

un ng De

C LA

ia As

a ric Af

or W

pi lo ve De

tri

ric Af

Source: WHO/UNICEF (2010); International Energy Agency (2010); International Road Federation (2009); ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database (2010)

Water Supply: When Good Governance Changes the Equation

Lusaka, Lagos and Nairobi, which suffer continuous water shortages. Despite 78 to 98 per cent of households in four of these cities – Accra, Lagos, Nairobi and Lusaka – benefiting from improved access to water, most experts also mention them as experiencing severe water shortages. Interestingly, despite its semi-arid climate and its location in a water-scarce country, Gaborone is where shortages are least severe, suggesting good water governance. The water shortage pattern is more mixed in Asian cities: half of the cities in the UN-Habitat survey experience water shortages. Those with the more severe shortages are Cebu, Davao, Bangalore, Lahore, and Hyderabad. In Bangalore, water is supplied once in 46 hours for a period of 2–3 hours.5 This trend had been observed by one analyst who noted that: “no South Asian city can supply water

Adequate water supply is essential for environmental sustainability and quality of life. Access to clean water reduces morbidity and mortality, and improves the productive abilities of the poor. Water scarcity characterizes African cities. Although official statistics reveal that 89 per cent of the urban population in Africa is now enjoying improved water supply, a large majority of Sub-Saharan African cities experience regular water shortages. The UN-Habitat survey shows that 11 of the 14 African cities (79 per cent) under review are associated with serious such problems. Experts concur that worst affected are Ibadan and Dar es Salaam, closely followed by Accra, Addis Ababa, Luanda, 50

Urban Infrastructure: Bedrock of Prosperity

24/7 to its residents”.6 On the other hand, water scarcity is unknown in Singapore, according to all local respondents to the survey. Other cities where water shortages are perceived to be relatively insignificant include Chongqing, Gaziantep, Kuwait City and Shenzhen. Water shortages vary a lot in Latin American cities: The UN-Habitat survey revealed that eight of the 15 cities under review in this region were found to have serious water shortages, including Havana, Panama City, Guarenas (Venezuela), Lima, Ciudad del Este (Paraguay) and Guadalajara. Cities with moderate water scarcity are Tijuana, La Paz and Valparaíso. Those cities without perceived water shortages are Medellín, Fort de France (French Antilles) and Montevideo. Differences in shortages across cities reflect local conditions and the state of water management. In 2011, Havana experienced its worst water shortage since 1961 due to the effects of drought and depletion of fresh supplies as well as a deteriorated network (70 per cent in poor condition).7 In contrast, regular supplies in Medellín reflect sound management by Empresas Públicas de Medellín (EPM), one of the most successful public utility companies in Latin America. In 2009, EPM launched the Water Programme Litros de Amor to provide free-ofcharge water (a daily 25 litres per head) to economically poor households.8 Limited water shortages in Arab State cities: Despite their typical location in hyper-arid regions, Arab state cities generally do not suffer from severe water shortages. However, according to local experts, three of the surveyed cities are finding water supply a major challenge: Amman, Basra and Saida (Lebanon). In Amman, the situation is quite critical with supplies only once or twice a week.9 In Basra, the supply falls short of around Cities 33 per cent of the needs authorities of the population.10 need to systematically Residents often complain maintain their stock about quality (taste, of infrastructure to smell and colour).11 ensure that the benefits Arab cities deemed to be of infrastructure are fully capitalized. It meeting their water needs is in their interest to include Aqaba, Doha, improve coordination Al-Muharrak (Bahrain), with the different Dubai and Erbil. levels of government There are remarkable in the design, provision inter-city differences and maintenance of infrastructure. in experts’ perceptions

fact

The success of Singapore in meeting local water demand is down to effective water governance. The specialized agency has developed a long-term strategy known as the Four National Taps to ensure a robust and sustainable supply of water. The strategy entails using water from different water sources: water catchment, recycled water, desalinated water and imported water.

fact

Many Arab cities are able to meet their water requirements because of the high political priority given to the provision of this public good.12 City authorities have improved water security through increased supplies, demand management, conservation and desalination.13

Saudi Arabia: an old water tower, a well-known feature in the city of Riyadh. © Fedor Selivanov/Shutterstock.com

policy

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Box 2.2.1 Ranking of Urban Infrastructure given to recreational infrastructure implies that access to public spaces in many cities is limited, as indicated in Chapter 2.3 (Quality of Life). Similarly, the low priority given to urban transport has wider-ranging implications, in this case for intra- and interurban mobility.

UN-Habitat survey experts report that across all developing regions the least developed components of urban infrastructure relate to recreation, sanitation and urban transport, while the most developed is telecommunications; all of this has important implications for urban prosperity. For instance, the low priority

Ranking <1 least developed to 5 most developed> most developed

ranking 5.0

Africa

Asia

LAC

Arab States

All regions

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

1.0 0.5 W Sa ate ni r Te l Tr ec E tatio an om lec n sp m tr or un ici t i ic ty nf at ra io st ns ru Re ctu cr re ea tio n

W Sa ate ni r Te Tr lec E tatio an om lec n sp m tr or un ici t i ic ty nf at ra io st ns ru Re ctu cr re ea tio n

0 W Sa ate ni r Te l Tr ec E tatio an om lec n sp m tr or un ici t i ic ty nf at ra io st ns ru Re ctu cr re ea tio n

least developed

1.5

Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Branch, Policy Survey,

regarding the coverage and quality of urban infrastructure. These differences are discussed below with respect to water, roads and ICTs.

free movement and making travel frustrating and timeconsuming.14 Road infrastructure remains poor in African cities: In most African cities, roads account for less than seven per cent of land area, compared with 25–30 per cent in developed cities.15 In cities such as Kinshasa, Kampala and Ouagadougou, paved roads account for less than 12 per cent of the whole urban network. In many cities, the road network has barely kept pace with urban growth: in Douala, for Road congestion, instance, it has remained poor facilities for unchanged for the past 20 pedestrians, power years despite a doubling of outages and flooding the population, increased are major infrastructural numbers of vehicles, deficiencies, and thus and urban sprawl.16 The adversely affect the prosperity of cities. dysfunctional nature of

Trends in Road Infrastructure The road network will rank amongst any city’s most prized assets, as it facilitates the movement of people and goods. Apart from access, road networks also form the basic grid for trunk infrastructure for water, sanitation and power supplies. Roads also contribute to effective mobility, which is crucial for the prosperity of cities. Congested roads and poor facilities for pedestrians are the most pervasive transport problems affecting cities in developing countries. The UN-Habitat survey shows that to a large majority of experts – 96 per cent in Africa; 91 per cent in Asia; 88 per cent in Latin America; and 80 per cent in Arab states – traffic congestion is the main form of infrastructure deficiency plaguing cities in those regions, hindering

fact

Urban Infrastructure: Bedrock of Prosperity

road infrastructure in Africa poses a major challenge to mobility and prosperity and is an important source of congestion. In addition to this, poor maintenance is a major problem: only 18.5 per cent of experts across African cities believe that infrastructure is systematically maintained. Some African cities have taken innovative steps to enhance mobility and tackle traffic congestion. Lagos introduced Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in 2008. South Africa’s Gauteng Province launched in 2010 the ‘Gautrain’, a stateof-the-art 80-km mass rapid transit railway system. Cities like Nairobi and Dakar have achieved significant progress in the development of road infrastructure increasing prosperity prospects. Significant improvements in road infrastructure in Asian cities: In recent years, various Asian countries have embarked on ambitious programmes of road development and expansion. In 1997, India started the Golden Quadrilateral motorway to connect the country’s largest cities – Kolkata, Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai. An EastWest corridor has also been recently completed, not just improving connections between cities but also opening up the hinterlands. In China, cities have been at the forefront of massive infrastructure development with emphasis on new roads and subway systems. The urban road network more than doubled between 1990 and 2003,19 largely contributing to urbanization and economic growth. Cities like Beijing and Shanghai have extended infrastructure to suburban areas in a bid to match spatial expansion. Beijing currently allocates 30 per cent of its construction budget to mass transit20 and Shanghai spends 10 per cent of its GDP on infrastructure, of which 40 per cent is for transportation. Singapore’s public transportation system is considered to be one of the most integrated and well-planned in the world. In addition, adequate facilities are provided for pedestrians with a safe and comfortable walking environment that enhances quality of life. In major Asian Massive economic cities, some growth in Asia, particularly 11 per cent of land China and India, has space is devoted to spurred spectacular roads, well below the 20–30 per cent rate increases in the numbers common in US cities.21 of motor vehicles. This In Indian cities, the has contributed to traffic proportion varies from congestion, air and 21 per cent in Delhi to noise pollution, road 11 per cent in Mumbai accidents and energy use to five per cent in 22 Kolkata. in the region. In India,

fact

A notable feature of the transport system in African cities is the virtual absence of State-operated public transport. The private sector is the major provider of transport services, often in the form of secondhand mini- and microbuses, shared taxis, and more recently commercial motorcycles.17 The needs of pedestrians are hardly taken into consideration despite the fact that walking accounts for over 60–70 per cent of trips in cities such as Conakry, Douala or Kinshasa.18

the number of passenger In India, public vehicles increased by nine transport accounts million, or 12.9 per cent, for only 22 per cent between 2007 and 2008.23 of urban trips among In China, the number of ever-increasing numbers of private vehicles.24 A vehicles increased 10-fold greater proportion of these between 1990 and 2002; of vehicles are concentrated particular significance is the in only a few cities: New increase in motorcycles and Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata scooters, which increased and Bangalore, which host from just 200,000 in 1981 five per cent of India’s population but 14 per cent to 50 million in 2002. of registered vehicles.25 Latin America and the Caribbean region features the highest level of motorization in the Cities must developing world: the address the region has five times more road congestion problems cars than sub-Saharan that adversely affect their prosperity Africa and Asia, and about twice as many as the Middle East and North Africa.26 Motorization in the region increased from 100 vehicles per 1,000 in 1990 to 155 in 2005, before reaching 169:1,000 in 2008. Rising incomes, expanding middle classes, high levels of urbanization, an expanding local automobile industry, and availability of low-cost vehicles are the major forces driving motorization in the region. As a result, cities in the region experience severe traffic congestion. A great majority of experts in the UN-Habitat survey (over 80 per cent) indicate that the roads in their respective cities are congested, costing the region USD2.2 billion a year in lost productivity.27 Time spent in traffic deteriorates quality of life, causing pollution, traffic accidents, increased fuel consumption and emission of greenhouse gases. In São Paulo, public transport as a share of all trips declined from 46 per cent in 1977 to 33 per cent in 1997 and

fact

policy

fact

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

30 per cent.30 Factors behind these sharp declines include a poor perception of public bus services; lack of information on availability, routes and schedules; crime and safety concerns; and the long distances that commuters have to walk to bus stops/terminals. Cities in the Arab States have the highest level of vehicle ownership: The quality and maintenance of roads in Arab cities are high when compared with other developing countries. However, despite massive investment, the expansion in road networks has not matched rapid increases in vehicle numbers, or urban sprawl. Over the past two decades, the Arab region has witnessed phenomenal rises in motorization. In 2008, the total number of vehicles reached 26.7 million – growing at a 4.2 per cent annual average between 1997 and 2008.31 In Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, the ratios of motor vehicles per 1,000 stand at 509, 507, 724, 313 and 225, respectively.32 Factors behind this trend include the affluence occasioned by the oil-driven economic boom, a strong preference for private cars, subsidized fuel, greater availability of car loans, and lack of effective mass transit systems. High levels of motorization in Arab cities have led to chronic traffic congestion. The traffic situation in Dubai typifies those of cities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: with over one million cars, the ownership ratio – 541:1,000 – exceeds those of London (345) and New York (444).33 Dubai‘s Metro began operating as a fully automated rail transit

fact

A trend closely associated with motorization in Latin American and Caribbean cities is the decreasing share of public transport.

policy

It would be in the best interests of cities to develop sustainable public transport solutions that have positive repercussions on all ‘spokes’ of prosperity.

down to 29 per cent in 2001.28 In Havana, the total number of public transport users declined from 3.5 million in 1991 to 540,000 in 2011.29 In Guadalajara the use of private cars increased Bogotá and Curitiba feature the highest from 30 to 50 per cent of shares of dedicated bus all trips between the years lanes in the region, which 2000 and 2010, while the have served as models for number of public transport BRT across the world. users declined from 60 to

fact

Curitiba, Brazil: a tubular bus station and sleek, modern bus, part of the city’s integrated transport system. © Paul Smith/Panos Pictures

Public transport systems are inadequate in many cities of this region. For instance, in Beirut, fewer than 10 per cent of commuters are served by public transport34; in Amman, the corresponding figure is 14 per cent.35

Urban Infrastructure: Bedrock of Prosperity

system in 2009, and when fully operational in 2012 is expected to reduce car use by 30 per cent.36 In 2010, the Greater Amman Municipality launched a USD175 million

BRT project along three busy corridors totaling 32km; when completed in 2012, the system will have a transport capacity of 6,000 passengers per hour.37

Box 2.2.2 Information and communication technologies (ICTs) and the Prosperity of Cities estimated average USD56 billion or 3.5 per cent of GDP, to the regional economy every year,41 as well as employment for over five million Africans.

Over the past decade, worldwide expansion in ICTs has been nothing short of phenomenal. In the sole mobile telephony area, for instance, the total number of subscriptions increased from 962 million in 2001 to six billion in 2011 – resulting in a worldwide ratio of 867:1,000.38 It is worth noting that developing countries account for over 75 per cent of global mobile cellular subscriptions. No other component of infrastructure has witnessed such spectacular growth. Advances in ICTs and liberalization of telecommunications markets have led to wealth creation and economic growth, with cities the major beneficiaries. ICTs play a major role in any city’s competitiveness, productivity and prosperity as they facilitate innovation, efficiency and effective service delivery. An overwhelming majority of surveyed experts – 85 per cent in Africa; 96 per cent in Asia; 86 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean; and 90 per cent in Arab States – rank telecommunications infrastructure as ‘highly developed’ or ‘developed’ in their cities.

ICTs in Asian cities: Mobile telephony has also expanded dramatically in this region. India’s four major cities – Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai – feature mobile telephone connection rates of 138 per cent, 112 per cent, 102 per cent and 143 per cent respectively.42 In Singapore, telecommunications infrastructure is highly developed. In 2010, the household fixedline penetration rate was 103 per cent, and the mobile population penetration rate was 144 per cent, with 82 per cent of households having access to Internet.43 ICTs are major contributors to economic growth in Asia accounting for USD485 billion, or 2.7 per cent of GDP; they also provide 11.4 million jobs – for each job created by a mobile operator, eight additional ones are generated.44 The major role played by the mobile telephone sector has seen it act as a buffer against economic recession in the region.

fact

In Africa, the total number of mobile telephone connections has grown an average 30 per cent per annum since 2001, and by 2011 over 60 per cent of the population was connected. In Asia-Pacific, the number of mobile connections increased from 824 million in 2005 to three billion in 2011– making the region the largest mobile telephone market in the world. Remarkable growth rates have also been recorded in the Middle East, where the number of mobile connections increased from 177 million in 2007 to 334 million in 2011.39

ICTs in Latin American cities: The ownership of mobile telephones is fairly widespread. Urban areas in Brazil, Chile, Panama, and Paraguay feature the highest connection rates, with at least 80 per cent of households owning mobile telephones.45 In major Mexican cities, ownership varies between 66 and 84 per cent of the population. Compared with Africa and Asia, fixed lines are more developed in Latin American cities. For instance, between 41 per cent and 68 per cent of households in Mexico’s major cities have fixed lines. The mobile telephone industry contributes significantly to the region’s economy: 1.7 per cent of regional GDP46 (or USD82 billion) in 2010. Increases in mobile telephone connectivity have also been found to boost GDP per capita.

ICTs in African cities: Mobile telephones have leapfrogged landlines in Africa when compared with developed regions that invested in landlines before moving to mobile networks.40 At least 90 per cent of households in Abuja, Accra, Dakar, Lagos, Luanda and Nairobi own mobile telephones; even where ownership of mobile telephones appears to be low, it hardly falls below 50 percent. The use of mobile telephones surpasses fixed lines in virtually all cities. In Kinshasa, there are 119 times as many households owning mobile telephones as fixed lines. In Lagos, Harare, Kampala and Mombasa, households are 12 times more likely to own mobile telephones than landlines. Apart from facilitating connectivity and communication, the cell-phone industry also serves as a catalyst for growth, contributing an

ICTs in Arab States cities: Urban ownership of mobile telephones in Arab States, especially Gulf Cooperation Council countries, is widespread. Penetration rates in Doha, Dubai, Amman, Kuwait, Muscat and Riyadh are in excess 100 per cent (Dubai’s penetration rate is the highest in the world with over 200 mobile telephones per 100 residents). The UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries have invested in ITC-dedicated parks as a boost to socioeconomic growth and diversification away from an oil-dependent to a knowledge-based economy. The ICT sector plays a significant role in the region’s economy. In the case of the UAE, the sector contributed 5.3 per cent to GDP in 2010, up from 4.1 per cent in 2007, and currently employs over 11,500.47

Ec on he al

gr ow th M th ob & i ed lity u Qu cati o al ity n of En Ur Im viro ban life nm G pr ov en row in Re ta th g du slu l qu cin m al i g sp con ty di at t ia l d ions isp ar iti es Ec o no Ac m ce ic ss gr to ow he th al M th ob & i ed lity u Qu cati o al ity n of En Ur Im viro ban life nm G pr ov en row in Re ta th g du slu l qu cin m al i g sp con ty di at t ia l d ions isp ar iti es Ec on Ac om ce ic ss gr ow to he th al M th ob & ili ty ed u Qu cati o al ity n of En Ur Im viro ban life nm G pr ov en row in Re ta th g du slu l qu cin m al i g sp con ty di at t ia l d ions isp ar iti es

Ac ce ss

State of the Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cities 2012/2013

Box 2.2.3

Infrastructure Development and the Dimensions of Prosperity Contribution of Infrastructure to the Prosperity of Cities

100 per cent

per cent Africa

LAC

Asia

policy

Consistent and targeted investments in transport and communications infrastructure are a major factor behind urban prosperity.

100 Arab States

Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Branch, Policy Survey, 2011

56 All cities

Urban Infrastructure: Bedrock of Prosperity

It is possible to identify the specific contributions adequate infrastructure can make to the prosperity of cities, but it must be remembered that they are interrelated and interact with one another in a variety of ways. As perceived by experts participating in the UN-Habitat survey, these contributions are the following (by order of decreasing importance): economic growth; facilitating mobility; improving access to health and education; improving quality of life; steering spatial expansion; environmental quality; improving slum conditions and reducing poverty; and reducing spatial disparities. These eight types of contribution are presented in the charts for the four regions under review. Economic Growth: Infrastructure plays a crucial role in supporting economic growth, and it is worth noting that the reverse causal relationship also holds – that is, infrastructure benefits from economic growth. Infrastructure contributes to growth through enhanced productivity of the factors of production. Indeed between 1990 and 2005, improved infrastructure contributed one per cent to per capita economic growth in Africa, and 1.2 per cent in Asia.48 In Africa, the greatest impact has been attributed to telecommunications and, to a lesser extent, roads. Facilitating Mobility: Seamless movement within and between cities thanks to efficient mass transit systems is essential to the proper functionality and prosperity of cities. Cities that have deployed sustainable transport policies to enhance mobility have reaped huge advantages that positively impact on the other ‘spokes’ of prosperity. In Bogotá and Curitiba, for instance, BRT makes both cities more livable in very tangible ways, including reducing traffic congestion, decreasing travel times and costs, reducing energy consumption and improving environmental quality. Access to health and education: Infrastructure facilitates access to health and education, which are essential components of human development and feature prominently among Millennium Development Goals. Healthy children learn better and healthy adults work better – both being major assets to the city. Education is crucial to empowerment, reducing poverty and enhancing productivity. Cities with a healthier, better-educated workforce are more likely to be productive and competitive.

policy

The provision of infrastructure must take into consideration the needs of women.

Steering spatial expansion: Infrastructure can steer the spatial expansion of a city, facilitating more compact urban development and integrating different land uses. This urban form is deemed to be efficient, inclusive and sustainable in four different ways: (1) the costs of infrastructure are cheaper; (2) access to services and facilities is improved; (3) the livelihoods of the urban poor are enhanced; and (4) social segregation is reduced. Environmental quality: Many developing country cities are characterized by inadequate water supply and squalid conditions in terms of sanitation. These two components of infrastructure are vital to improved environmental conditions in cities, as they facilitate a clean and pollution-free environment. On top of this, flood-control infrastructure safeguards urban areas against erosion, flooding, landslides and disasters. Improving slum conditions and reducing poverty: Infrastructure can contribute to the prosperity of cities through improved slum conditions and reducing poverty. Providing adequate infrastructure for roads, water, sanitation and electricity can reduce the health burden faced by slum dwellers, delivering major benefits in terms of environmental quality. Reducing spatial disparities: Infrastructure can reduce spatial disparities, particularly in uncontrolled and un-serviced peri-urban areas, connecting them to consolidated parts of the city.

policy

Beneficiary communities must be fully involved in the design, provision and maintenance of infrastructure.

Improving quality of life: Infrastructure can improve quality of life in a variety of ways, including: enhancing safety and security, especially for youth and women; and expanding the provision of public goods to enhance the city’s appeal.

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Endnotes 1

Choguill, C. (1996) “Ten steps to sustainable infrastructure”, Habitat International, Vol. 20(3), pp. 389-4044; Teriman, S., T. Yigitcanlar, and S. Mayere (2010) ‘Sustainable urban infrastructure development in south east Asia : evidence from Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore’ in Yigitcanlar, T. (ed.) Sustainable Urban and Regional Infrastructure Development : Technologies, Applications and Management, IGI Global, Hershey, Pennsylvania

23 Uddin, A. (2009) ‘Traffic Congestion in Indian Cities: Challenges of a Rising Power’, paper presented at the conference Kyoto of the Cities, Naples, March 26-28, 2009, http://www.visionwebsite.eu/UserFiles/File/filedascaricare/Scientifci%20 Partners,Papers(Kyoto)/Draft_koc_Azeem%20Uddin.pdf

Lall, R., R. Anand and A. Rastogi (2010) ‘Developing physical Infrastructure: A comparative perspective on the experience of China and India’, in Gerhaeusser K., Iwasaki, Y. and V. B. Tulasidhar, (eds) Resurging Asian Giants’ Asian Development Bank, Manila, pp.57-114.

25 Uddin, A (2009) op.cit.

24 HPEC (2011) Report on Indian Urban Infrastructure and Services,National Institute of Urban Affairs, New Delhi 26 Estimated from World Bank (2011) 27 Canassa, H. (2008) ‘São Paulo Traffic Jams Mean Lost Business, Stress, Helicopters’, Bloomberg, July 14, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid= aAwzOeXmIxgk

Fay, M. and M. Morrison (2005) Infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments and Key Challenges, World Bank, Washington,DC.

Foster, V., and C. Briceno-Garmendia (2010) Africa’s Infrastructure: A Time for Transformation, World Bank, Washington, DC.

Belliapa, S.G. (2011) City Report on Bangalore. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/13”

28 Vicentini, V. L.(2010) ‘Lessons from urban transport in Latin America and the Caribbean’, presentation at the 2010 ADB Transport Forum, May 25-27, Manila; Luoma, J., M. Sivak and S. Zielinski (2010) The Future of Personal Transportation in Megacities of the World, Transportation Research Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

Harris, C (2008) “India Leads Developing Nations in Private Sector Investment”, Gridlines, No.3, March 2008, http://www.pppinindia.com/pdf/gridlines.pdf

29 Coyula, M. (2011) City Report on Havana. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

Latin American Herald Tribune (2011) ‘Cuban Capital Faces Worst Water Shortage in 50 Years’, Latin American Herald Tribune, http://laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=3915 53&CategoryId=14510

30 Perez, F. (2011) City Report on Guadajara. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”.

López , M (2011) Water Distribution as an Indicator of Social Inequality: The Case of Medellín, Colombia, http://www.centrodametropole.org.br/static/uploads/marcela_l.pdf

Shabou, A., N. Soboh, K. Jalouka, and D. A. Thaib (2011) City Report on Amman. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

31 ESCWA (2009) Transport for Sustainable Development in the Arab Region: Measures, Progress Achieved, Challenges and Policy Framework, United Nations, New York, http://www.uncclearn.org/sites/www.uncclearn.org/files/unescwa14.pdf 32 World Bank (2011) World Development Indicators, World Bank, Washington, DC. 33 Shariff, O. (2007) ‘Dubai Traffic Woes Inflict Losses of Dh4.6b a Year’, Gulf News, December 13, http://gulfnews.com/business/shipping/dubai-traffic-woes-inflictlosses-of-dh4-6b-a-year-1.75892; Raouf, M. A. (2009)’Towards sustainable transportation’, Gulf News, September 18, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/ towards-sustainable-transportation-1.539872

10 Karim, S. S.A. (2011) City Report on Basra. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 11 Takechi, A (2010) Basrah Water Supply from viewpoint of Its Water Sources, http:// www.waterforum.jp/jpn/iraq/doc/expert_meeting/session/4_2.pdf

34 Kollock, P. (2010) ‘Still Sitting in Beirut Traffic’, NOW Lebanon, May 5 http://www. nowlebanon.com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=166121

12 Although the region is the least provided in the world, with just 1.4 per cent of the planet renewable freshwater. {Roudi-Fahimi, F., L. Creel and R. M. De Souza (2002) Finding the Balance: Population and Water Scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa, MENA Policy Brief, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, DC}

35 Shabou, A., N. Soboh, K. Jalouka, and D. A. Thaib (2011) op. cit. 36 Raouf, M. A. (2009) op. cit. 37 Al-Rawashdeh, A. (2011) “New bus system aims to reduce Amman’s traffic congestion”, Al-Shorfa.com, January 26, http://al-shorfa.com/en_GB/articles/meii/ features/main/2011/01/26/feature-02

13 The Arab State’s Region is host to 65 of the world’s 100 largest desalination plants. {Pacific Institute (2011) The World’s Water Volume 7: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources, Table 21, http://www.worldwater.org/data.html}

38 International Telecommunication Union (2010) World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database, http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/

14 The economic costs of traffic congestion are staggering: in the US in 2010 it was put at $101 billion in terms of lost productivity and wasted fuel, or $713 per commuter per year; in Mauritius, traffic congestion in cities costs the economy 1.3 per cent of GDP. {African Economic Outlook (2011) Mauritius: Overview, http://www. africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/countries/southern-africa/mauritius/}

39 GSM Association (2011a) Asia Pacific Mobile Observatory 2011, GSMA, London 40 Aker, J. C. and I. M. Mbiti, (2010) ‘Mobile telephones and economic development in Africa’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 24(3), pp. 207-232 41 GSM Association (2011b) Africa Mobile Observatory 2011, GSMA, London

15 Kumar , A., and F. Barrett (2008) Stuck in Traffic: Urban Transport in Africa, World Bank, Washington, DC

42 Philip, J. T. (2009) ‘Average Urban Teledensity Crosses 100% Mark’, The Economic Times, December 12, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2009-12-12/ news/28416388_1_cent-mark-mobile-connections-teledensity

16 Kumar,A. (2011) Understanding the Emerging Role Of Motorcycles in African Cities: A Political Economy Perspective, Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program Discussion Paper No. 13, World Bank, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ EXTAFRSUBSAHTRA/Resources/1513929-1262811948762/DP13-Role-Motorcycles. pdf

43 Centre for Livable Cities (2011) City Report on Singapore. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 44 GSM Association (2011a) op. cit. 45 Fernández-Ardèvol, M. (2010) ‘Household access to mobile telephony in Latin America’, in Sevensson, J. and G. Wicander, (eds.): Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on M4D,Mobile Communication Technology for Development, 10-11 November, Kampala, Uganda, pp. 60-69.

17 In 2007, Lagos had over 100,000 minibuses and 200,000 commercial motorcycles directly employing 500,000 people. Kumar (2011) 18 Kumar and Barrett (2008), op. cit. 19 The network increased from 95,000 to 208,000 km from 1990 to 2003. Pucher et al (2007)

46 GSM Association (2011c) Latin American Mobile Observatory 2011, GSMA London

20 McKinsey Global Institute (2009) Preparing for China’s Urban Billion, McKinsey and Company.

47 Telecommunications and Regulatory Authority (2011) UAE Telecommunications Sector Developments and Indicators, 2007 –2010.

21 World Bank (2002) Cities on the Move: A World Bank Urban Transport Strategy Review, World Bank, Washington, DC.

48 Calderón, C (2008) “Infrastructure and growth in Africa”, Policy Research Working Paper 4914, World Bank, Washington, DC

22 Pucher, J., Z. Peng, N. Mittal, Y. Zhu,and N. Korattyswaroopam (2007) ‘Urban transport trends and policies in China and India: Impacts of rapid Economic growth’, Transport Reviews, Vol. 27 (4), pp. 379–410

Chapter 2.3

Quality of Life and Urban Prosperity

which reflects representative individuals’ beliefs and The choice values in 54 countries around of indicators reflects the audience for the world.5 More recent which the indices are measurements of quality of being created. The UNlife combine subjective and Habitat city prosperity objective measures. In 2003, index is primarily aimed the European Environmental at city leaders and Agency investigated eight national governments. Therefore, the quality domains of individual of life indicators in the life situations in 25 EU index include health member states, ranging and education and from economic situation, various infrastructure housing and employment indicators. to work-life balance, health, subjective well-being and perceived quality of life.6 The international human resource consulting firm, Mercer, focuses on the quality of life of expatriates, taking in criteria such as availability of consumer goods, the economic environment, the natural, political and social environments as well as recreation amenities.7

fact

Today no one disputes that quality of life is essential for a city to prosper. The notion is increasingly used by decision-makers, practitioners and urban populations alike. Everyone agrees on its importance, but everyone will also agree that this notion comes with different meanings and facets. Many efforts have been made to develop a policy-oriented definition, yet the essence of quality of life remains vague when applied to urban areas. Despite these different views and understandings, the very basic notion remains largely similar both in the developed and the developing world: peoples in Jakarta, Naples, Los Angeles or Bogotá will, to large extent, share similar concerns, including decent employment, material wellbeing, fulfilling family lives and good health. Individuals and specific circumstances may value one of these factors over others; yet, as noted in the Report by the French Government Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (2009), these constitute “the most important features that give life its value.”1

Quality of Life: A Synthesis of All Dimensions of Prosperity Quality of life underpins the functionality of cities: the notion is at the crossroads of all policies and actions8, and a synthesis of all the dimensions of prosperity. When a city generates employment and economic growth, quality of life improves. When a city designs better buildings

Measuring Quality of Life Recently, efforts have turned from definition to scientific measurement of quality of life. To Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, quality of life is determined by the various opportunities open to individuals, and their freedom to choose from these many opportunities.3 Other conceptual approaches measure quality of life based on the notion of subjective well-being and on economic notions drawn from welfare economics.4 The most comprehensive subjective measurement of quality of life is the World Values Survey, 59

fact

“Quality of life is often tied to the opportunities available to people, to the meaning and purpose they attach to their lives and to the extent to which they enjoy the possibilities available to them”.2

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

and public spaces that provide attractive, secure, clean and durable surroundings, it is improving quality of life. When a city provides adequate public transport, it improves quality of life for both users and non-users. When a city raises levels of education and provides good healthcare it is ensuring quality of life for the foreseeable future. And when a city reduces the use of environmental resources and becomes more energyefficient, it also improves quality of life. According to the UN-Habitat survey (2011), on balance experts value security to live and work freely, good quality of education, adequate housing with basic services, and meaningful employment and decent income as the most important factors

promoting quality of life and prosperity in their cities. In Europe, a survey on perceived quality of life in 75 cities (2010) shows that ‘the three most important issues for the city’ were: educational facilities, job creation/reduce unemployment and the availability and quality of health services, among seven other alternatives such as social services, housing conditions, air pollution, noise, public transport, infrastructure and safety.9 It remains that, as perceived by experts and residents in developing and developed countries alike, the quality of urban life is a broader concept that includes a full range of factors such as economic development, living standards, material progress and individual and collective wellbeing, which all are important dimensions of prosperity.

policy

Cities that improve quality of life experience higher levels of prosperity; they are also likely to find themselves more advanced in terms of sustainability.

fact

Experts from 52 cities consider quality of life as the second most important dimension promoting prosperity in cities, after infrastructure development.

policy

It is in any city’s best interest to promote public goods such as public transport, green areas and public spaces and ‘urban commons’ such as safety and security and political participation in order to enhance quality of life and shared prosperity.

Accessibility, environmental sustainability and health: cyclists on dedicated cycle lanes in Copenhagen, Denmark. © Anne-Britt Svinnset/Shutterstock.com

Quality of Life and Urban Prosperity

Treating Quality of Life as a By-product

employment opportunities Social equity but also contribute to and quality of higher quality of life. But life go hand in hand. In there may also be negative practice, though, any consequences. policies and actions However, UN-Habitat aiming to expand policy analysis shows that societal well-being largely depend on most surveyed cities in the the political will of developing world have governments and the no clear policies, actions degree of participation and reliable procedures of civil society to deliver and expand organizations and, in quality of life to the whole particular, their degree of autonomy when it population. With the comes to advocating, exceptions of Singapore, upholding and fighting Davao, Ho Chi Minh for the rights of all. City and Chon Qing in Asia, Fort-de-France and Medellín in Latin America and the Caribbean, and When a city focuses solely Doha in the Arab States on economic prosperity, it is (whose commitment to very likely that the benefits quality of life was highly and improvements in terms commended), experts of quality of life may not be took a critical view of the geared to the urban poor, 42 other cities on that particularly in those cities where corruption and poor count. They found public governance are endemic. administrations to be generally inefficient and with poor incentives to devise specific quality of life policies for lack of adequate financial resources, trained staff or political interest. Positive exceptions can be found, such as Cebu, Singapore, Dubai, and Ho Chi Minh City, where, in the words of a local expert, “investing in human resources is considered to be the best way of seizing more opportunities and turning them into wealth and quality of life to make the city more prosperous”.11 In Cebu, a local expert argues that “it is not only a matter of expanding the pie (i.e., economic

fact

UN-Habitat survey results show that the more committed the city is to promote quality of life, the more the chances that the effects will be broad-ranging. There is a clear positive association between a high degree of commitment to address quality of life and the possibility of designing specific policies. Unfortunately, the opposite also applies, and many cities treat quality of life as a by-product or an ‘after-effect’ of policy interventions. Even where some cities perform well under other dimensions of prosperity, they fail to deliver better quality of life. Abidjan, Dakar, Dar es Salam and Kampala illustrate well this situation: they feature moderate or weak values in the “City Prosperity Index”, but rank even much lower for quality of life, which goes to show that this dimension cannot be considered as an indirect component of any urban policy agenda. A number of studies have shown that the various determinants of quality of life generate complex interactions and diverse causal relations. Sometimes, efforts to promote one element can have unexpected detrimental effects on other elements; for example, prioritizing economic growth per se can result in negative environmental impacts. In other cases, positive linkages between these determinants are quite obvious; for instance, the provision of green open spaces brings health benefits to the population. In some other cases, the relationship can be less evident; for example, individual housing choices may have environmental impacts that affect quality of life in different ways.10 All too often, cities do not clearly perceive the complexity of these interactions and assume that interrelations will always be positive. Several cities in Asia and the Arab States that are experiencing high economic growth are mostly focusing on infrastructure development in the pursuit of higher productivity and Cities therefore higher incomes, that focus assuming that this will lead only on economic to better quality of life in development and the long term. Generally, provide services that that is what happens, are not public goods, since economic growth may leave the urban poor, migrants, ethnic increases purchasing power minorities and other and demand for goods vulnerable groups with and services including serious difficulties to education, entertainment, pay for the improved financial services and services, reducing the housing, which, in turn, possibilities for them to enjoy quality of life. not only create new

policy

fact

Experts in 60 per cent of surveyed cities in Africa and Arab States and slightly more than 40 per cent of cities in Asia and Latin America believe that corruption and poor governance conspire against local prosperity and quality of life.

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

a key competitive advantage that contributes to promoting city productivity, attracting and retaining highly qualified individuals and prestigious firms and investors. Priority is given to those most easily perceived elements of quality of life such as parks, clean sidewalks, leisure, art and culture amenities as well as hospitals. Although not generalized to all the population, the pursuit of prosperity through quality of life is an interesting connection and entry point to development.

policy

Cities that are committed to quality of life are almost always committed to enhanced productivity and equity, emphasizing the strong relation between these dimensions.

development), but dividing the pie and ensuring that the poor benefit, too (i.e., equity and quality of life)”.12 Dubai, as other cities in the Arab Gulf, recognizes quality of life as

Box 2.3.1 Quality of Life – the ‘Spokes’ and the ‘Hub’ of the Wheel of Urban Prosperity Quality of life and equity Quality of life and equity are constitutive of progress and development. No city can claim to be prosperous when large segments of its population are excluded or live in abject poverty, or when large sections of the population are deprived of basic goods or services while other sections live in affluence. Cities that look to more equity in the distribution of resources and opportunities, in law enforcement, in the rules and relationships that govern institutions and in access to public goods will be those where shared prosperity and quality of life are improved. More equitable cities enhance the prospects for people to take part in democratic processes and participate in a more decisive manner in cultural and political life. The benefits of social participation and political voice extend to other domains such as health, employment and the urban environment.

Quality of life and productivity Productivity and quality of life are increasingly associated. Skilled workers and talented people will flock to, and concentrate in, liveable cities with high quality of life, and firms will follow suit. Consulting firms rank cities based on their ‘good living’ factors to make informed locational decisions. High human capital, which is a main ingredient of quality of life, attracts firms that cluster in cities to take advantage of common labour pools. Well-planned and designed urban environments, with pedestrian-friendly areas, bicycle paths, mix-land uses and sufficient public goods, attract people and businesses which, in turn, contribute to finance further social amenities and public goods. More and more city leaders are investing in education and the provision of ‘commons’ and public goods as part of a quality of life. Inversely, cities that do not invest in quality of life tend to feature poor public health, low education, limited mobility, and marginalization of the urban poor, all resulting in low productivity.

Quality of Life and Environmental Sustainability Environmental conditions have an immediate impact on the quality of people’s lives. They affect human health both directly (air, water pollution, noise) and indirectly (climate change, biodiversity). Well-managed urban commons and public goods can improve environmental conditions and quality of life. Conversely, the pursuit of short-term quality of life objectives can be detrimental to the more long-term sustainability objectives that collectively affect the lives of the whole population. Indeed, individual short-term aspirations to quality of life, such as affordable, low-density housing, can act as major factors behind urban sprawl, which in turn is detrimental to the natural environment through higher use of land, energy and water, along with greenhouse gas emissions.

Quality of life and infrastructure development The prosperity of a city largely depends on infrastructure. Physical facilities like transportation, power and communications contribute to economic development, industrialization, trade and mobility of labour. Water supply, sanitation and sewerage, together with education and health facilities, have a direct impact on quality of life. All of these types of infrastructure connect people to people, goods to markets, workers to jobs, families to services, and the poor in rural areas to urban centres − a connectivity process that is essential to induce economic growth, reduce poverty and increase general well-being. More and more cities today are launching into ambitious initiatives to expand/improve infrastructure to sustain economic growth, prepare for population decline, address climate change issues and/or reduce slum incidence. Conversely, under-developed infrastructure makes life more difficult and more costly: poor facilities discourage industrial development, trade and investment and reduce competitiveness, besides generating air pollution, wasted time, fuel and safety costs, noise and more greenhouse gas emissions.

Quality of life and the ‘hub’ of the wheel of prosperity Effective institutions, more appropriate laws and regulations, proper urban planning and new value systems are essential power functions and can make sure that policies, actions and solutions involving any of the ‘spokes’ of prosperity can have positive effects on the others.

Sources: Glaeser, E. and Berry, C. (2005); Gidwani, V. and Baviskar, A. (2011); European Environment Agency (2009); Stiglitz Joseph, Sen Amartya, Fitoussi Jean-Paul (2009); UN-Habitat (2008/9); Jones, Harry (2009); Lalnunmawia H, (2010); AusAid (2009).

Quality of Life and Urban Prosperity

Quality of Life: A Variety of Local Responses

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Experts in Beira, Algiers, Praia, Luanda and Addis Ababa, among others, explicitly link improved quality of life to slum upgrading and poverty reduction.

UN-Habitat has identified some convergent and divergent forms in which cities address quality of life. Divergent city responses: Actions to improve quality of life will largely depend on the stage of development of the relevant country or city. In most poor cities in the developing world, quality of life is strongly associated with the provision of public goods in the form of basic services such as water, sanitation and electricity, and improvements in slum neighbourhoods. Tanzania’s National Development Vision 2025 aims at high quality of life for all the population, linking this notion to economic growth and poverty reduction.13 In Ho Chi Minh City, quality of life is directly linked to improved drainage, sewage collection and treatment systems, and other public infrastructures such as road enlargements. In middle-income countries, governments link quality of life to various factors, from improved living environments and enhanced material well-being to higher incomes. Experts in cities as diverse as Fort-de-Fran ce (Martinique), Habana, Cebu, Davao, and Beirut explicitly refer to the provision of a decent house and a healthy environment as essential elements for improved well-being and quality of life. In other cities −Rosario, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Alexandria and Guarenas (Venezuela) − improved solid waste disposal is perceived as a major condition for better quality of life. Improvements in healthcare services appear as another major factor. In Singapore, Doha, Chongqing and Shenzhen, local experts implicitly refer to good and affordable medical services for all as a good way of improving quality of life. Shenzhen’s universal healthcare system and Tehran’s Urban Heart Programme are good Box 2.3.2 examples.

In rich countries, government responses to the need for quality of life implicitly refer to access to a number of goods and services and improvements in the domestic living environment. Many European cities emphasize Northern good transport, green open European spaces, culture and sports cities like Copenhagen, facilities as major factors Amsterdam, Groningen, behind better quality of life. Berlin and Muenster Although better paid jobs, promote cycling and walking as part of new good levels of education urban cultures and in and health facilities always the pursuit of better feature in government quality of life. Others responses, quality of life is like Dresden, Vancouver increasingly associated to and Los Angeles have an inclusive, well-planned, launched into urban conversion programmes healthy and supportive 14 in cultural and historical environment. neighbourhoods, Convergent city adapting urban responses: Beyond local infrastructure and circumstances, some reusing open land aspects of quality of life areas for better quality of life. improvements can be found in all types of country.

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Quality of Life, World-Class Cities and Social Inclusion

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Equitable cities generalize access to urban commons and public goods, preventing private appropriation and expanding the scope for improved quality of life for all.

Cities with aspirations to ‘world class’ status will typically equate this notion with competitiveness. The 2007–2015 Dubai Long-term Strategic Development Plan declares these two notions as twin objectives that will “establish the city as a preferred home for current and future residents by improving the well-being of citizens and residents, and helping them live healthier lives enriched with opportunity and choice.15 In Doha, the capital of Qatar, transformation of the city into a diversified knowledge-based economy is seen by public authorities as being contingent on the development and upgrading of the education and skills of the population and improved quality of life.16 Singapore considers quality of life as a key competitive advantage to attract skilled foreign labour and investment.17 At a different level, a local expert in Beirut noted that ‘quality of life’ mostly appeared in the advertising brochures of high-end property developments, in response to which non-governmental organizations have used the same notion to draw attention to the lack of public goods in the city, such as public or ‘green’ spaces.18 In Santos, Brazil, quality of life is perceived as involving social justice and inclusion, not just economic growth, as a precondition for sustainable development.

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Cultural vitality enhances quality of life: Sinulog Street dancing, an annual event held on the third Sunday in January celebrates Santo Niño, the patron saint of Cebu, Philippines, as well as Cebuano peoples’ origins. © 2012 John Lander/fotoLIBRA.com

Quality of Life and Urban Prosperity

UN-Habitat has identified various areas of intervention which governments with different political orientations and levels of development still consider as priority interventions: safety and security, efficient public transport, public spaces, healthcare and adequate housing, appear to be among the most important. Public Safety and Quality of Life: A safe and secure life for all is an integral component of a prosperous city. As an expert in Nairobi states, “quality of life only makes sense when there is adequate security”.19 Experts in 52 cities in the developing world agreed that this is the most important factor contributing to a sense of empowerment and a feeling that one is part of a prosperous city. In Lima, for instance, a survey on quality of life conducted by a citizens’ observatory found that 73 per cent of the population considers urban insecurity as the main problem that conspires against quality of life and prosperity.20 A survey on “urban lifestyles” conducted in 2010 by Veolia Observatory in seven cities in both developing and developed nations found that in three of these cities (Chicago, London and São Paulo) insecurity appears as the most important problem, and in another (Paris) it features as the third most important.21 By itself, security may not bring prosperity to any city, but its absence is fatal. Economic inequity and/or instability nurtures high perceptions of crime and violence in various cities around the world, and inadequate urban planning law enforcement drives many high- and middle-class residents into gated communities and other guarded urban and suburban enclaves22, creating pockets of prosperity. This type of privilege remains unaffordable to those on low incomes, whose safety is often more at risk. Personal safety is seriously detrimental to freedom, mobility, productivity and public interactions, all of which are crucial to ensuring a high quality of life. Crime and violence can hinder, and sometimes, paralyze regional and national economies. High rates of violence and insecurity in Kingston (Jamaica) and Nairobi (Kenya) have stultified the otherwise thriving tourist sectors in these countries.23 Even though urban Effective insecurity is to large extent public the result of extreme safety is a fundamental inequalities, it can also ‘common good’ that generate further social enhances quality of life and spatial disparities for all, and is a major that restrain access to foundation of urban prosperity. employment, resources

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In 19 cities out of the 52 surveyed by UN-Habitat, an overwhelming majority of experts (more than 80 per cent) rated security to work and live freely as a major contributor to prosperity. In cities like Praia, Cebu, Algiers, Chongqing, Singapore, La Paz and Amman, nearly all experts rated security as ‘contributing’ or ‘highly contributing’ to prosperity.

and opportunities. Moreover, unsafe cities and perceptions of insecurity also lead to more fragmented, sprawled and car-dependent urban environments. The fear of crime and violence not only increases reliance on private automobiles through the proliferation of low-density, peri-urban gated communities, it also deters the public from using public transport. Nearly one-third of local experts in Extensive provision Latin America, 25 per cent of public goods such in African cities and more as parks, schools, basic than 10 per cent in Asia and services, sports facilities the Arab States said lack and community centres, of public security was not particularly in more violent properly addressed in their respective cities. neighbourhoods, together with strong participation from local communities, has enabled Medellín to enhance safety through social cohesion. Reviving the public space: In a large number of cities, provision, preservation and improvement of public spaces remains a neglected agenda. According to a local expert in Panama City, “in practice, the concept of public space does not exist”.24 In Cebu, an expert mentions that “public parks, playground areas and recreational facilities are grossly inadequate”.25 Another in Al-Muharrak (Bahrain) states that “the city has been losing green areas and today the proportion of gardens is small”.26 As many other public goods, ‘green’ and open areas tend to be enclosed, restricted, or depleted by unsustainable use. In Amman, city authorities have been converting public areas and parks into developments. In India, confessional Many public spaces groups erect temples in are residual urban public parks; in Bangladesh areas that are exposed developers construct to speculation for private housing in open public profit. In other cities, public areas; in Nairobi, private spaces remain concentrated in the affluent areas. interests occupy riparian 27 lands.

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State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

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Cities that reevaluate their notion of the public and thereby provide green areas, parks, recreation facilities and public spaces demonstrate a commitment to improved quality of life.

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Cities that enhance and sustain the use of public space have enhanced community cohesion, civic identity and quality of life.

Box 2.3.3 Greenery and Quality of Life in Asian Cities Many cities across the developing world, especially in Asia and the Arab States, are creating new parks in an effort to meet international standards for green area per capita (i.e., eight square meters per head).32 In the past five years, Shenzhen has created 435 new parks as part of the “Eco-city Programme” and the “Garden City Plan”, achieving a ratio of 16.3 sqm in 2009. As a result, the urban ecological environment in Shenzhen has gradually improved and with it quality of life.33 Also in China, Chongqing has increased the combined green belt and public square surface area by a multiple of 16 in the last 30 years.34 The state-city of Singapore is a leading example in the world, with greenery over 50 per cent of the surface area and over 450 public parks and gardens. The city is also preserving its rich biodiversity with four nature reserves which cover more than 3.000 ha, and are legally protected to safeguard key indigenous ecosystems. These initiatives contribute to a cleaner environment, shaping the country’s landscape and enhancing quality of life. Recently, greenery has been given even more emphasis, with a new plan for a “City-In-a-Garden”’.35

In Amman, parks represent 12 per cent of the total land area; however, in the eastern part of the city, with the highest population density, open spaces are very scarce.28 In some other cities,

particularly those aiming at ‘world-class’ status, parks and ‘green’ spaces have a more ornamental or ‘image’ role than a real ‘public good’ one. Parks and ‘green’ spaces have always been associated with better quality of urban life. In Praia, a city where such spaces are very scarce, a newly opened, small public square has become a major place for recreation, leisure and socialization despite its reduced dimensions.29 In Guadalajara, Mexico, temporary appropriation of streets and public spaces for pedestrian and cycling purposes has become extremely popular. As a result, this recreational project, known as ‘vía recreativa’, has been extended

Box 2.3.4 Internet, Information and Quality of Life Basic needs are rapidly changing. Access to Internet is increasingly becoming an essential component of quality of life. In many cities today, Internet is used not just to communicate, socialize and learn, but also to promote public participation and to assess citizens’ perceptions of urban affairs. Formal recognition of right to information (i.e., India, 2005; the Philippines, 2008; South Africa, 2000) empowers citizens and encourages participation in governance and government programmes. The cities of Hyderabad, Cebu, and Johannesburg, amongst many others, are introducing e-governance to enable many services on-line − issuance of documents, payments, ticketing, applications and complaints − as a major step to enhance quality of life. In India more than 500 million cell phones are currently in use, and many with reduced call rates. This is improving the connectivity of poor and rich alike, and enhancing economic opportunities for the urban poor. As stated by a local expert in India, “Internet is an empowerment tool”.

Quality of Life and Urban Prosperity

from 3.4 km to over 25 km and across four municipal jurisdictions. At national level, the Mexican government has launched an ambitious programme to recover public spaces in a bid to improve quality of life and enhance public security, particularly in marginalized neighbourhoods in various cities.30 In Cuba, as part of a ‘non-discriminatory enjoyment of public spaces’ policy, several cultural programmes have been made free or affordable for all, with plazas, avenues and even vacant lots featuring various events that enhance quality of life.31 In Europe, public greens which take the form of corner lots, small community parks, street greens, linear parks,

and river banks as well as large city parks, are designed for specific types of activity. The liveliness and continuous use of public space as a public good leads, in turn, to urban environments that are well-maintained and safe, making the city an attractive place to live and work in.36

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“Having access to public spaces does not only improve quality of life, it is a first step to civic empowerment on the way to further institutional and political spaces”.37

Endnotes 1

Stiglitz, J.E., A. Sen, and J-P. Fitoussi (2009) Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, The Commission, Paris, http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr/en/index.htm

Stiglitz, J.E., A. Sen, and J-P. Fitoussi (2009) op. cit.

21 Veolia Environment (2010), Villes à Vivre 2010, Observatoire Veolia de Modes de Vie Urbains, Paris.

Andrulis ,D.P., H.M. Reid, L. M. Duchon (2004), Quality of Life in the Nation’s 100 Largest Cities and Their Suburbs: New and Continuing Challenges for Improving Health and Well-Being, The Social and Health Landscape of Urban and Suburban America Report Series, USA.

22 Davis, D. (2007) “Urban Violence, Quality of Life, and the Future of Latin American Cities,” in Allison M. Garland,A.M, M. Massoumi and B. A. Ruble (Eds) Global Urban Poverty: Setting the Agenda. Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Comparative Urban Studies Project, Washington D.C, pp. 57-87.

Stiglitz, J.E., A. Sen, and J-P. Fitoussi (2009) op. cit.

www.worldvaluessurvey.org

23 UN-Habitat (2007) Enhancing urban safety and security: Global report on human settlements 2007, Earthscan, London

European Environment Agency (2009), Ensuring quality of life in Europe’s cities and towns: Tackling the environmental challenges driven by European and global change, EEA Report 5/2009,Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg

20 Lima Como Vamos (2010) Lima Según sus Ciudadanos, Observatorio Ciudadano, Informe de Percepción sobre la Calidad de Vida, Lima.

24 Mendoza, I. R. (2011) City Report on Panama City, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 25 Fernandez, F.L. (2011) op. cit. 26 Al- Kubaisy, F. (2011) City Report on Al-Muharrak, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

http://www.mercer.com/articles/quality-of-living-survey-report-2011; Also targeting business, the Economist Intelligence Unit designed a Quality of Life Index using nine factors: material well-being, health, political stability and security, family life, community life, gender equality, political freedom, climate and geography, and job security, Refer to http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/QUALITY_OF_LIFE.pdf

European Environment Agency (2009) op. cit.

Bodin-Buyle Z., and C. Hermant-De Callataÿ (2011), Urban Prosperity and Quality of Life in European cities – Beyond GDP, European Union, Brussels, prepared for UNHabitat as part of EU – UN-Habitat collaboration.

27 UN-Habitat (2010), Bridging the Urban Divide, State of the World’s Cities Report 2010/2011, Earthscan, London 28 Shabou, A., N. Soboh, K. Jalouka, and D. A. Thaib (2011) City Report on Amman, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 29 Fernandez, C. (2011) City Report on Cape Verde, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

10 European Environment Agency (2009) op. cit.

30 SEDESOL (2007). Guia de Diseno del Espacio Publico Seguro, Incluente y Sustentable. Secretaria de Desarrollo Social, México

11 Dzung, D. D. (2011) City Report on Ho Chi Minh City, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

31 Coyula, M. (2011) City Report on Havana, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

12 Fernandez, F.L. (2011) City Report on Cebu, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

32 The agreed international ratio is 8 square meters per capita. For instance, Lima, the capital of Peru, has around 3 square meters, the Mexican border city of Tijuana has around one or two, and Al-Muharrak in Bahrain has less than 1 square meters.

13 Lupala, A. (2011) City Report on Dar es Salaam, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 14 European Environment Agency (2009) op. cit.

33 Jin, L. and Y. Liu (2011) City Report on Shenzhen, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

15 Al-Bassam, D. and J. Mouris (2011) City Report on Dubai, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

34 Liu, Y. and Y. Wang (2011) City Report on Chongqing, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

16 Mena, A. (2011) City Report on Doha, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

35 Centre for Livable Cities (2011) op. cit.

17 Centre for Livable Cities (2011) City Report on Singapore, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

36 Shehayeb, D. (2008) ‘Safety and Security in Public Space’ in International Report on Crime Prevention and Community Safety: Trends and Perspectives, ICPC, Montreal, pp. 107-112

18 Fawaz, M. and N. Baghdadi (2011) City Report on Beirut, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

37 Castellanos, G. (2011) City Report on Santo Domingo, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

19 Omenya, A. (2011) City Report on Nairobi, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

Chapter 2.4

Equity and the Prosperity of Cities

The unequal wealth of cities: increased income disparities The 2011 OECD report Divided We Stand stresses that income gaps between rich and poor are expanding in both developed and developing countries. In OECD countries, inequalities are as steep as they have been for over 30 years. The Report shows that, in advanced economies, the average income of the richest 10 per cent of the population is about nine times higher than that of the poorest 10 per cent. In Europe’s Nordic countries, the average is a multiple of six but growing, compared with multiples of 10 in Italy, Korea and Cities generate the United Kingdom, and wealth, but it is not shared equitably. up to 14 in Israel, Turkey Despite considerable and the United States. increases in capital and These are overshadowed per capita GDP growth by countries such as Chile along with reductions and Mexico with multiples in extreme poverty, of 27, and in Brazil, despite inequality as a whole is growing in most parts recent declines in inequity of the world – a process (the exception among that undermines urban the BRICs countries), the prosperity. ratio of incomes between In many cities, richest and poorest reached the population 4 a staggering 50:1. In and local experts the 34 OECD member concur that inequalities countries, Gini coefficients are becoming steeper. have risen by 10 per cent A review of inequality in cities reveals a on average between the steady increase over 1980s and the late 2000s the long term, as well 5 (from 0.29 to 0.316). as in recent decades.3 In emerging economies Paradoxically, this has (such as Argentina, Brazil, occurred as wealth rose China, India, Indonesia, enormously around the world. the Russian Federation

The past few decades have witnessed a notable surge in economic growth, but one which has been accompanied by an equally daunting degree of inequity under various forms, with wider income gaps and deepening poverty in many cities across the world. In the 1970s, widening income gaps began an unhealthy co-existence with economic growth, with reduced incomes for households in the middle and lower classes and steady increases for the well-off. Economic inequality is seriously detrimental to the equitable distribution among individuals of opportunities to pursue a life of their choosing and be spared from extreme deprivation Cities must realize in outcomes. that equity has a significant impact on Equity involves economic performance, systematic (re)distribution since the greater the degree of the economic benefits of equity, the greater the of growth or development, chances of a fuller, more with legal frameworks efficient use of available ensuring a ‘level playing resources, including skills 1 and creative talent. field’ and institutions protecting the rights As understood in of the poor, minorities this Report urban prosperity thrives on equity, and vulnerable groups. which involves reduction Promotion of equity in barriers on individual/ also involves enhancing collective potential, socioeconomic equality expansion of opportunities, and providing for civic and strengthening of 2 participation by all in the human agency and civic engagement. social, political and cultural spheres.

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Equity and the Prosperity of Cities

and South Africa) income inequality is significantly steeper than the OECD average. Inequality has increased in all these countries over time, reaching extremes in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.

Box 2.4.1 Income Inequalities in the World’s Cities: An Overview The UN-Habitat database shows that income inequalities are widening in urban Asia; this is also the case in half of the African countries where urban data is available, while the gap has narrowed slightly in Latin America and the Caribbean. According to the database, the most unequal cities in the developing world are Hong Kong, Yichan, Shenzhen, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, Davao, Colombo, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City; Bujumbura, Douala, Brazzaville, Addis Ababa, Libreville, Maputo, Lagos, Kigali and several South African cities (the most unequal in the world); and cities in Brazil and Colombia, together with Mexico City, Port-au-Prince, Buenos Aires, Santiago and Quito.

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Promoting equity must be a dual endeavour: (i) providing the conditions that enable every individual and social group to realize their full potential and harness the collective benefits and opportunities any city has to offer; and (ii) removing any systemic barriers that discriminate against any individual or social group.

Equity comes with multiplier effects

Equity and lack thereof work in exactly opposite ways. When actively pursued, equity can act as a powerful catalyst for prosperity, exerting multiplier effects on other prosperity factors, optimizing their respective performances and creating

Rising inequity is not limited to the developing world, as the recent banking/financial crisis has had serious socioeconomic effects on the developed countries where it started in the first place.

Figure 2.4.1 Urban Prosperity, Poverty and Inequity CPI

Gini

MPI

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

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pa m

di sA

ak Dh

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go La

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y cit

dj an

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iro

ila

an M

sa Ca

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) on gi

ka Ja

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w co

pe Ca

M os

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ico

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* Gini coeffecient based on consumption

This graph shows the difference between poverty and inequity in the context of rising prosperity. In many developing countries, inequity is often concealed in poverty, thus misdirecting policy and strategic interventions which tend to concentrate only on poverty. The case of Chile (Santiago) is a case in point. Whereas poverty has been reduced by around 20 per cent, the Gini coefficient increased from 0.542 in 1990 to 0.558 in 2009. A typical example of income polarisation can be found in Nairobi, which features a Gini coefficient of 0.59, whereby the richest 10 per cent in the city account for 45.2 per cent of income while the poorest 10 per cent account for just 1.6 per cent. Source: WHO/UNICEF (2010); International Energy Agency (2010); International Road Federation (2009); ITU World Telecommunication / ICT Indicators Database (2010)

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

linkages among them. Its absence will will have the reverse effect, compounding any existing biases, or dysfunctions already hindering prosperity. Undoubtedly, some cities have demonstrated a capacity to stimulate growth and prosperity even in the absence of equity. However, as has become amply evident in the past three decades, such prosperity, coupled with uneven distribution, remains narrowly confined and is unsustainable. Conversely, cities that have built equity into their local development strategies are better placed for enhanced prosperity. Equity reduces alienation and exclusion, paving the way for empowerment and engagement of all social groups, and for the realization of the full potential of the entire population. Indeed, cities that have removed impediments to the full engagement of women, youths and even the

elderly have invariably enhanced overall prosperity. Equity is not simply a normative concern, related to issues of fairness and justice, important as these may be. It is a material factor which directly impinges on the process of social and material sustenance. In fact, through removal of ‘unfreedoms’, and with the attendant broadening of choices and opportunities, equity enhances the city’s transformative capacity while also promoting identity and agency among the population. The social process that comes with the opportunities made available to all through public goods like quality education and skills, enables the population to remain engaged and to stake a claim on the city. In this respect, the way a city shapes, and is in turn shaped by, its population, will largely depend on whether urban systems provide all residents with equal opportunities for development and the ability to exert agency. Inequity is inefficient from an economic perspective. As stressed by Sen, “the primitiveness of social developments (such as widespread illiteracy, malnutrition, lack of health facilities and medical networks) is a barrier to the full realisation of the benefits of participatory growth and

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When equity is embedded in urban development strategies, efficiency is enhanced, asset utilization becomes optimal, productivity improves, social cohesion is strengthened, and both sustainability and resilience are enhanced.

Box 2.4.2 Spatial divisions exacerbate inequality that ”increasing degrees of exclusion are reappearing in the city, especially with the new infrastructure under development. Segregation along racial lines is re-emerging.”9 In Dubai, as in some other Gulf cities, the gap between nationals and nonnationals (access to schooling, public hospitals, health insurance, adequate and affordable housing, labour grievances and rights) is unequal in the extreme.

Spatial inequalities are not only a forerunner of social and economic divisions; these in turn cause further inequalities and different forms of exclusion and marginalization. In Jordan’s capital, for instance, 97 per cent of households in Western Amman have computers while in Eastern Amman the proportion is no more than eight per cent. Not surprisingly, in Western Amman more than 50 per cent of males and 20 per cent of females earn more than USD1,400 monthly, compared with only two per cent for males and less than one per cent for females in Eastern Amman.7

Research shows that when combined, the physical and social divisions between rich and poor neighbourhoods can generate further exclusion and marginalization, especially when the poor are confined to farther neighbourhoods with inadequate accessibility. The underprivileged people living in these ‘lost’ areas suffer from a triple jeopardy: long distances, high transport costs and excessive commuting times. This turns into a genuine “spatial poverty trap” that conspires against shared prosperity through restrictions on jobs, compounding gender differences, limiting social interactions and reducing social capital, increasing the likelihood of crime and violence, with worsening living standards as a result.10 The spatial inequalities so visible in so many cities are also the outcome of broader and deeply entrenched processes of unplanned urban development, poor governance and institutionalized exclusion and marginalisation of specific groups.

The urban divide appears to widen with higher degrees of economic prosperity; at least this is the perception of populations and local experts. In Bangalore, where specialisation in computer technologies has brought a fair amount of economic prosperity, a local expert remarked that “while quality of life is comfortable for ‘elite Bangalore’, it is not so for the ‘other Bangalore’ which comprises the majority of the population”.8 In São Paulo, even as municipal authorities strive to integrate favelas, informal settlements and rehabilitated urban neighbourhoods into a more inclusive city, wealthy Paulistanos resist the process and gravitate to more exclusive enclaves. The result is what has been dubbed a ‘city of walls’ where any visible prosperity appears to be largely monopolised by the wealthy. In Lusaka, a local expert reports

Equity and the Prosperity of Cities

prosperity.”6 Remedies here include such public goods as political freedom, economic facilities, social opportunities, transparency and security, with the safeguards against a variety of risks that they ensure for basic capabilities.

The risks of unchallenged division A growing body of research connects the competitiveness of cities with social cohesion. Analysis increasingly links the importance of tackling inequality at earlier stages of development to the achievement of prosperity. Reducing inequality and poverty has been highlighted as a key aspect of urban quality of life. A UNICEF study on poverty reduction mentioned that “evidence from India, China and Brazil indicates very clearly that efforts to ease inequalities generate larger dividends for poverty reduction than a more conventional focus on economic growth”.11 An OECD study has reached similar conclusions: the notion of social cohesion includes dimensions of social relationships, social inclusiveness and social equity, which are major components of broader-defined prosperity. “The key idea that has emerged to link these concerns is that social cohesion improves economic performance. This is a more positive way of saying that social division and fragmentation undermine long-term economic success”.12 However, the absence of social cohesion, particularly in the form of equity, does not just challenge economic success: it also jeopardises prosperity as a whole through the multidimensional, and far-reaching consequences which inequity spreads throughout urban society. UNHabitat analysis (2010) of urban inequality in 47 developing countries challenged the notion that inequity is an acceptable, inevitable aspect of economic growth.13

Kibera, Nairobi: Looking out ... access to good education is one way out the slum. © Eduardo Lopez Moreno

Recently, OECD experts agreed that economic growth and equality were by no means contradictory variables but instead can, and arguably should, act in a complementary way, stressing that “researchers are increasingly finding that regions marked by higher levels of inequality, in fact, find their economic performance damaged.”14 The statement that ‘more equal cities are more prosperous cities’ is increasingly supported by evidence, and has become More and more empirical a development proposition. data suggests a strong Without elaborating on connection between the moral principle that equity and economic inequality is inherently prosperity, with equity unacceptable, it would being a cause not a appear that when certain result of economic prosperity. groups of people are

fact

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

increases in trade based on new, all-weather roads and uptake of mobile telephone technology. Still, the actual number of East Africans living below the poverty line has increased from 44 million to 53 million, and income inequality indicators, as measured by Gini coefficients, have also worsened in most countries.15 As a regional expert put it, ”The reason for this is that inequality is both deepening and widening. Fewer people are enjoying the benefits of economic growth.”16 Inequality and criminality appear to be part and parcel of the same equation. This is all the more so when lack of opportunities and rising unemployment are added to the balance. Perceptions of rising criminality, and the fears thereof, may be strong in cities characterised by high inequity, and even stronger than actual numbers actually state. In one poll, comparing perceptions and expert opinion in São Paulo and London, criminality emerged as a major concern in both cities, even though actual numbers in São Paulo were a multiple of London’s.17 In the same survey, residents of cities as diverse as Mumbai, Chicago, Cairo, London, Paris, Beijing and São Paulo overwhelmingly agreed (89 per cent) that “a non-dangerous city” was their prime criterion for the ‘good urban life’, a notion that has much to do with prosperity.

policy

If left unaddressed, socioeconomic fragmentation can jeopardise urban prosperity and pose major risks to nationwide political stability.

repeatedly and disproportionately refrained from taking their fair, full share of the multidimensional benefits of the ‘urban advantage’, the above statement comes with two interconnected corollaries. First, inequality can be linked to poor economic productivity, and experience shows that more sustainable urban economies are frequently associated with lower inequality. Second, persistent, ever-higher inequality carries direct risks. Stark disparities within cities have proven to be social detonators, as recent revolutions in the Arab world and social unrest in some cities in the developed world have recently demonstrated. Take a city anywhere in the world that can boast sustained economic growth thanks to high productivity, adequate infrastructure, a high quality of life and environmental preservation: the more this prosperity is inequitably distributed, the more precarious it is bound to be. All five ‘spokes’ in the ‘prosperity wheel’ must be developed in a well-balanced way for a smoother ride on the path of sustainable, shared prosperity. The recent society-wide upheavals in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt did not occur against a background of extreme poverty or deprivation. In all three countries, national poverty reduction programmes had gained considerable traction. Slum improvement or eradication had been achieved or was on-going. Large infrastructure projects with adequate transport networks had been deployed or were underway and, in terms of education and health, achievements were approaching or surpassing national Millennium Development Goals. Still, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia were shown to have feet of clay. The sobering message from the Arab Spring, though still in a state of flux, is that leaders When prosperity and societies ignore remains an elusive proposition for a inequality at their own peril. majority of the population, A recent report on the the prospects of social East African Community unrest or full-blown has highlighted a number of conflicts increase, since remarkable achievements in the majority’s claims are terms of economic growth nothing but demands for effective human dignity. over the past decade, propelled by massive

Linking equity to prosperity “Inequalities are increasing day after day”, according to a local expert in Hyderabad. This comment echoes findings from the United Nations General Assembly 2011 Report on Progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which stressed that “despite advances towards achieving the MDGs, insufficient emphasis in the MDG agenda had been given to the issue of inequity which is increasing within and between countries.”18 Even in those countries that have made progress towards the MDGs, inequalities have grown. Therefore, as suggested by the UN General Assembly, equity must be mainstreamed in the development agenda, based on more inclusive growth. Evidence showing that equity is a critical dimension of prosperity runs Cities must against the conventional pay more attention to inequity as development approaches a critical factor affecting that prevailed before the prosperity. Deliberate 2008–09 global financial and conscious policies crisis. A particular case in now need to emphasise point is the ‘Washington the importance of equity Consensus’, which in urban decisionmaking. reinforced the notion that

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Equity and the Prosperity of Cities

economic growth is to take place first before equity issues can be addressed. Although the Consensus promoted pro-poor growth and the provision of primary education along with primary health and infrastructure development, it was based on the premise that poorer sections of society benefit from whatever ‘trickles through’ the economic and social pyramid, in an environment of free enterprise and deregulation. The dramatic collapse of the banking system in major Western countries in 2008 and the subsequent world economic crisis has seriously discredited the Consensus approach. Ample evidence suggests that structures and institutions are skewed in favour of dominant groups in society. These groups may legally or otherwise maximise their own benefits, not by chance but by design, and perpetuate and enhance conditions that further benefit themselves or their socio-political class. This is particularly true in cities with poor governance arrangements, weak institutions and nonexisting or ineffective planning structures − in other words, in cities where the ‘hub’ of the wheel of prosperity is not properly working and fails to steer growth and development in a more equitable manner. The UN-Habitat survey on urban prosperity in developing regions has highlighted corruption as the greatest barrier to equity, followed by weak civil society

(with its role in rights advocacy) (Figure 2.4.2). This is the case in Lahore, Bangalore, Amman and Beirut. In the survey, local experts also cited poor governance, lack of political will The impact of and structural barriers inequity has been overlooked in conventional to pro-equity policies economic and development as other significant theory. hindrances to equity. Far from being a historic or inevitable phenomenon, urban inequality in this More equitable perspective is understood cities have to be the result of greater chances to be more deliberate negligence, prosperous; but prosperity does not happen all by itself, structural obstacles and or as a logical consequence weak capacities to counter of economic growth. prevailing conditions.

fact

policy

fact

While equity has a direct effect on the emergence of prosperity, it must be brought about through the other dimensions of prosperity.

Figure 2.4.2 Factors restricting the scope of greater urban equity

ranking

Historic patterns of inequality

Corruption

Discriminatory practices

Inefficient and ineffective government

Lack of interest from ruling elites

Public institutions controlled by ruling elite

Lack of democracy

Lack of funds

Weak civil society to claim or defend rights

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 Africa

Asia

LAC

Arab States

All regions

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Fostering Social Inclusion

‘macro’ and national policies, most interventions in favour of social inclusion take place at the local level. Therefore, urban authorities have a major role to play when it comes to making shared prosperity a reality within their jurisdictions. In European cities an abundance of initiatives have been introduced to promote social inclusion, and their benefits seem to have registered in the UN-Habitat “City Prosperity Index”. For example, the ‘Cities Against Social Exclusion’ (CASE) programme illustrates the concerted efforts at local and regional levels to share experiences and improve local action among a network of European cities. Typical interventions, such as in Stockholm, include removal of barriers to full engagement of women, youths, the homeless, the elderly and the disabled. In Vienna, an elaborate action plan involves systems for nondiscrimination at all levels, improved political and social participation of all minority groups including migrants, and measurable monitoring of social diversity and integration. As Vienna’s mayor once put it, “Social cohesion and a climate of respect are particularly important at a time when we all face new challenges. Good neighbourly relations cannot be enacted by law. The people who live in Vienna need to come to an understanding and formulate mutually acceptable solutions.”19 Similar noteworthy experiences are emerging in developing countries where Medellín, Dar es Salaam and Kigali, for instance, have found effective ways of enhancing prosperity based on relatively lower productivity, infrastructural development and quality of life. Medellín has resorted to civic architecture and public spaces to further inclusiveness and the empowerment of otherwise marginalized social groups. These groups benefit from expanded public facilities as infrastructure reaches out to them, improving not just their sense of wellbeing but also their capacity At the city fully to engage with the level, social urban fabric. In Dar es inclusion provides an Salaam, a conscientious environment where plan for socially mixed individuals feel they neighbourhoods has belong to the larger brought more inclusion whole, have access to ‘commons’ and are both in space and in free fully to engage in social relations. In Kigali, collective affairs. Social innovative measures aim to inclusion involves a consolidate reconciliation broad set of variables and integration as part as it hinges upon of the post-genocide the socio-political relationship. reconstruction process.

Unequal income and unequal opportunities are the two main underlying factors of urban inequity. They derive from biases in distribution at national level as well as dysfunctions at the local urban level. In this sense, inequity reveals a differentiation in the manner in which resources are allocated and facilities and services accessed. The main driver of inequity often tends to be differential access to employment as well as to public goods and services. Inequity in this respect reflects biases in the economic realm which effectively concentrate a disproportionate share of resources, services and opportunities in the hands of certain groups or individuals. A common response is the consolidation of redistributive programmes, mainly in the area of social welfare. In developing countries, this has been complemented with the design of local economic development initiatives as well as poverty alleviation measures. However, it has become increasingly evident that beyond dysfunctions in the distributive systems, in both developed and developing countries, some systemic barriers sustain outright discrimination and alienation. Transcending poverty and deprivation, social inclusion as both a process and an outcome entails the removal of barriers to access to goods, services and opportunities as well as improved wellbeing and self-fulfilment. This goes to show that social inclusion is not just reactive; rather, it recognizes the importance of differences and diversity, and harnesses Cities willing to the commonality of lived embrace shared and shared experiences prosperity must also look to achieve positive beyond equity to ensure the promotion of social inclusion societal ends. as a whole. To a substantial degree, the urban protest movements that were referred to earlier in this Equity is also Report have been about about social and social inclusion (Chapter political relations among 1, Part 1). The rallying cry, urban populations as well as among government “We are the 99 per cent”, institutions and individuals is more of a reaction to and social groups. It is the exclusion and alienation relational dimension which than a protest against underlies the degree to poverty or deprivation. which a city operates and Whereas equity in its sustains as a collective entity. primarily economic dimension is driven by

policy

fact

Equity and the Prosperity of Cities

Placing Equity on the Development Agenda

fact

Institutions are not fully contributing to equity. Rulers lack interest and ineffective governments are hampering the potential for more equitable cities.

UN-Habitat policy analysis shows that in most developed countries, concerns for socio-economic equity are typically built into concerted actions from local and national governments. This will usually result in urban policies promoting inclusion, diversity, multi-ethnicity, affirmative action, positive discrimination and pro-poor planning. This in turn can take the form of wide-ranging programmes and actions, from strategic positioning of educational and recreational centres to low-cost housing to quota systems to encourage minority engagement in local politics and representation, as well as targeted subsidies and financial support for new businesses. Similar policies and dedicated institutions are found at the municipal level in most developed countries and in some emerging economies. Local experts in the UN-Habitat survey believe that equity is primarily the responsibility of public authorities; where a failure of political will, or indifference, are to blame for deficient, or total lack of, effective policy. Such failure can be identified at national or local level. In the survey, local experts in Nairobi, Luanda, Kuwait City, Lahore,

Lima, Fort-de-France, Erbil Addressing and Saida felt that national inequities governments showed requires political will, strong institutions and welllittle concern for inequity targeted policies. whereas local experts in Alexandria, Algiers, Hyderabad, Guadalajara, Panama City, Beirut and Doha report that it is local policymakers who show little concern for equity. Elsewhere, local experts report that some cities prioritize equity in planning and policy strategies. FigureÂ 2.4.3 summarises the types of action they use. In African and Asian cities in the UN-Habitat survey, pro-poor vocational training and skills programmes are emphasised, with some projects explicitly targeting the poor and

policy

Figure 2.4.3 Most notable policy or action the city is implementing to be more equitable

per cent

Vocational education and training to enable skills development

Easier access to employment and opportunities

New rules and regulations to promote equitable development

Cash transfers and other forms of financial support for disadvantaged groups

Financial incentives for the urban poor

Specific projects targeting the poor & marginalized

Other

None

0 Africa

Asia

LAC

Arab States

All regions

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Medellín, Colombia: children enjoy education at a junior school.

marginalised. Singapore offers a clear example of repeated commitment by the government to education and training for all in an environment that promotes productivity and social mobility. In Ho Chi Minh City, government-led promotion of the high-tech (IT) and service sectors offers widespread new opportunities for communities to switch away from conventional manual labour.20 In Africa, Addis Ababa’s Micro and Small Enterprises Development Strategy targets the unemployed.21 Johannesburg enhances the skills of poor communities, expanding access to education and

training. In Latin American and Caribbean countries, some experts cited cash transfers and other financial assistance in support of marginalised groups, such as Brazil’s “Bolsa Familia” and Mexico’s “Oportunidades” programme. In Arab cities, local experts found that new rules and regulations did promote equitable development.

Equity and the Prosperity of Cities

Box 2.4.3 Making Progress on the Equity Agenda Cities are also allocating funds and introducing local programmes to promote equity. Some of these interventions are becoming best practices and good examples that are inspiring other cities, and sometimes national governments. Authorities in Chongqing have made social equity a primary goal. Priority public rental housing programmes have improved conditions and rural migrant workers’ rights are better protected. In Beirut, vulnerable groups are targeted for special social support as part of a scheme that has significantly reduced homelessness and the number of people (10 per cent in 2009) below the National Poverty line22). Faced with very steep income inequality (with Gini coefficients as high as 0.75 in 2005), Johannesburg is responding with pro-poor policies including ‘Cash Social Grants’. Singapore integrates equity in national development policies and urban planning. According to a local expert, ‘There is room for upward social mobility among the poor and lower-middle class people through adequate opportunities for all in education and the job market’.

Today, some cities and national governments in the There is no developing world are substitute beginning to prioritize equity for government through concerted actions. leadership to address They understand that working issues of equity, together maximizes their with civil society in possibilities to make positive advocacy, support and changes in the living complementary roles. conditions of the urban poor. They also understand that equity is a fundamental aspect of prosperity. Their interventions are closely linked to propoor programmes such as, in Alexandria, the Social Fund for Development, which focuses on small- and medium-size businesses; in Gaziantep, the Social Solidarity Fund whose cash transfers are conditional on children being sent to school; in Lahore, the Benazir Income Support Programme; in Shenzhen, social equity policies have brought large numbers of migrant workers and vulnerable groups into the city’s social housing and welfare system; in Ho Chi Minh City, the ‘Doimoi’ reform process has reduced inequalities in Vietnam’s capital.

policy

Endnotes 1

World Bank (2006) World Development Report 2006 - Equity and Development, Oxford University Press ,Oxford

14 OECD (2006) OECD Territorial Reviews Competitive Cities in the Global Economy, OECD publishing, Paris. 15 Society for International Development (SID) ( 2012) The State of East Africa Report 2012: Deepening Integration, Intensifying Challenges, http://www.sidint.net/docs/ SoEAR2012_final.pdf

Gewirth, A. (1996), The Community of Rights, Chicago: University of Chicago Press

UN-Habitat (2010) State of the World’s Cities Report 2010/2011: Bridging the Urban Divide, Earthscan, London

OECD (2011) Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising, OECD Publishing, Paris, pp.22

Ibid.

Sen, A. (1999) Development as Freedom, Oxford University Press, Oxford

Shabou, A., N. Soboh, K. Jalouka, and D. A. Thaib (2011) City Report on Amman, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

Belliapa, S.G. (2011) City Report on Bangalore, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

Hampwaye, G. and W. Nchito (2011) City Report on Lusaka, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

16 SID Programme director Aidan Eyakuze [Mungai, C. (2012) ‘East Africa region’s economy expands amid deepening levels of poverty and malnutrition’ in The East African, April 7, http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/A+richer+East+African+Com munity+with+more+poor+people/-/2558/1381658/-/v2nkg7/-/index.html] 17 Urban Age (2009) Cities and Social Equity: Inequality, Territory and Urban Form, Summary report, http://downloads0.cloud.lsecities.net/downloads/2009/09/ SouthAmericaReport/CSE_Summary_Report.pdf 18 United Nations General Assembly (2011) Accelerating progress towards the Millennium Development Goals: options for sustained and inclusive growth and issues for advancing the United Nations development agenda beyond 2015, Annual report of the Secretary-General (A/66/126) ,July 2011 19 Vienna City Administration (n.d) Vienna Charter. Shaping the Future Together, http:// www.wien.gv.at/english/living-working/vienna-charter.html

10 UN-Habitat (2010) Op. Cit 11 UNICEF(2010) Understanding Urban Inequalities in Bangladesh: A prerequisite for achieving Vision 2021, UNICEF Bangladesh, Dhaka

20 Dzung, D. D. (2011) City Report on Ho Chi Minh City, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

12 Turok, I (2006) ‘The Connection between Social Cohesion and City Competitiveness’, in OECD Territorial Reviews Competitive Cities in the Global Economy, OECD publishing, Paris.

21 Admassie, Y. (2011) City Report on Addis Ababa, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 22 UNDP (2009) Arab Human Development Report: Challenges to Human Security in the Arab Countries , UNDP , New York,,p. 113-114.

13 UN-Habitat (2010) Op. Cit; UN-Habitat (2008) State of the World’s Cities Report 2008/2009: Harmonious cities, Earthscan, London

Chapter 2.5

Environmental Sustainability and the Prosperity of Cities

A key message is that prosperous cities can operate efficiently and productively without damaging the environment.5 This is possible only when environmental and social objectives are fully integrated in a city’s overall economic goals to help bring about environmental sustainability.6

Environmental Sustainability in Cities The prosperity and environmental sustainability of cities are inextricably linked. Urban areas consume huge amounts of environmental goods and services like food, water, energy, forestry, building materials, and ‘green’ or open spaces often beyond their boundaries. This undermines the assimilative capacity of the environment around urban areas.1 For example, the cities of the world generate over 720 billion tons of wastes every year, but in developing regions, even in large, presumably more affluent, cities only 25 to 55 per cent of wastes are Environmentally collected.2 Demographic sustainable cities are likely to be more and spatial expansion can productive, competitive, be so rapid as to outstrip innovative, and prosperous the capacity of cities to enough to provide better provide basic amenities − preservation for the housing, water and environment and enhance sanitation, etc. − resulting quality of life and well-being for all the population. in poor urban conditions.3

It is generally assumed that any country can preserve the environment while maintaining economic growth.7 However, a degree of commitment is required from all

fact

policy

Inasmuch cities are sources of environmental problems within and beyond their jurisdictions, they are also best-placed to provide most of the solutions. Environmentally sustainable cities are able to draw a healthy balance between economic growth and the environment, and facilitate prosperity and resilience in the process.4

Solar panel assembly at a Suntech factory in Wuxi, China. A high percentage of China's homes use solar-heated water. © Qilai Shen/Panos Pictures

Environmental Sustainability and the Prosperity of Cities

stakeholders, particularly at local level, if sustainable development is to be achieved.8 Nowhere are the commitments of cities to environmental sustainability more vital than in developing countries, where urban demographics are growing rapidly and current total population accounts for 82 per cent of the world population. This underscores the need for growth and prosperity to sustain and fulfil basic needs. Vitally important as economic growth may be, it must be sustainable if any city is to achieve prosperity.

fact

In Europe, cities stand at the forefront of initiatives in favour of environmental sustainability9, as they keep developing and implementing various policies and strategies.10

policy

If economic development and related urban activities are pursued in an environmentally sustainable manner, they can facilitate urban prosperity.

African Cities In Nairobi, for example, local experts point to extensive pollution of the Nairobi River not just by industrial effluents but also solid waste.12 Traffic congestion is also mentioned as a major environmental problem, and apart from the attendant air pollution, the cost to the local economy is enormous.13 Similar opinions are held by experts in Lusaka, Accra, Algiers, Lagos, Ibadan and Luanda, where rapid urban sprawl and uncontrolled spatial development combine with poor infrastructures and weak regulatory

frameworks to undermine quality of life and, more generally, prosperity in their respective cities. Of the fourteen African cities covered in this Report, no more than four – Johannesburg, Beira, Alexandria, and Gaborone – can be found where only a few local experts perceive that economic development and related activities have negative effects on the environment. This Africa’s rate comes as no surprise

fact

of economic growth has outpaced the global economic growth over the last decade. Real growth GDP has been steady particularly in the Sub-Saharan region, a sub-region expected to continue growing by more than 5 per cent.11

Figure 2.5.1 Environmental Impact of Growth* – African Cities per cent 100 90 80 70

policy

60 50 40 30 20 10

* As perceived by local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Branch, Policy Survey, 2011

Be ira Al l Af Sa ric m a ple Ci d tie s

La go Ad s di sA ba ba Ga bo ro ne Al ex an dr Jo ia ha nn es bu rg

nd a

Lu a

Ac cr

ad an Ib

s ier

sS al

a ai

Al g

a ak Lu s

iro

However, an overwhelming majority of local experts believe that urban economic development has unintended effects on the environment in cities such as Nairobi, Lusaka, Praia, Algiers, Dar es Salaam, Ibadan, Accra, Luanda and Lagos. These cities are seen to be unable to match sustained economic and demographic growth with corresponding expansion in infrastructures and services.

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Asian Cities

fact

In some African cities, a large majority of local experts report that although economic developed and related urban activities have detrimental effects on the natural environment, sustainability is largely overlooked by policy-makers.

However, the expert opinion survey reveals differences across cities. For instance, economic growth is not perceived to have been matched by adequate infrastructure and services in Ho Chi Minh City, Bangalore, Lahore, and Hyderabad. In Lahore, experts point to ground water pollution, extensive air pollution, traffic congestion and urban sprawl as major effects of economic development and urban activities on the environment, these are compounded by inadequate capacity and weak institutions.15 Similarly in Bangalore, experts point to poor air quality, depletion of ground water tables and fast receding lakes.16 These perceptions contrast with those of local experts in Singapore, Turkey’s Gaziantep, and Shenzhen, where very few local experts view economic growth and urban activities as detrimental to the environment (Figure 2.5.2). In Asia, close to two-thirds of local experts report that this type of policy is at work in their respective cities, especially in Singapore and Ho Chi Minh City. Singapore is fully committed to environmental sustainability. This includes environmental awareness campaigns, with

policy

given that these cities are among those pursuing environmental sustainability as a matter of policy. South Africa’s economic capital has been systematically promoting creation and preservation of open spaces, pursuing energy efficiency and the reduction of greenhouse gases, and promoting solar energy, energysaving bulbs and insulation as part of a retrofitting scheme. Above all, the city promotes sustainable building design and construction through a comprehensive set of planning regulations, whereby a sustainable approach must pervade all planning stages.14 Johannesburg’s approach to environmental sustainability appears to be the most comprehensive of all African cities.

Figure 2.5.2

fact

Apart from cities in the Arab States, economic development and urban activities in Asian cities are perceived to have the least detrimental effects on the natural environment.

Environmental Impact of Growth* – Asian Cities per cent 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

* As perceived by local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Branch, Policy Survey, 2011

Al As l Sa ia mp n Ci led tie s

e or ap ng Si

ze n en Sh

ep nt zia Ga

bu Ce

ao Da v

d ba ra de Hy

When cities promote environmental sustainability as a matter of policy, they are able to cushion the unintended effects of economic development and urban activities. Environmentally sustainable cities are, almost by definition, more compact, energy-efficient, clean and less polluted, more accessible, and offer better transport choices

M Ho in C h hi Ci ty Ba ng al or e

policy

Environmental Sustainability and the Prosperity of Cities

institutions and grassroots leaders collaborating on community outreach schemes, and various programmes involving the citizenry in the ‘sustainable’ agenda. The cityState’s ‘compact city initiative’ promotes density, facilitates mass transit and includes a ‘walkable’ campaign. Under Singapore’s waste management scheme, 58 per cent of solid wastes are recycled, another 40 per cent incinerated to produce energy, and the remaining two per cent goes to a purpose built off-shore sanitary landfill.

policy

The main message from Arab States is that urbanisation and economic growth are inevitable; and if matched with appropriate and effective policies and governance, the environmental consequences are manageable.

are rarely considered”, with an absence of effective policies for urban planning, although they are needed in areas like traffic and waste management.19 However, in Doha, Aqaba and Dubai, most local experts report that their respective cities have proper policies in place. In Dubai, environmental sustainability policies include the Emirates’ Energy and Environment Rating System and the Air Quality Management System, among other robust policies and governance mechanisms promoting environmental sustainability in Qatar’s capital city.20

Cities in Arab States

id a Al lS Ar am ab p Ci led tie s

Du b

Sh ira

M uh

Ku wa

Be iru

Across Arab States, only one-third of local experts consider that economic development has unintended detrimental effects on the environment (Figure 2.5.3). However, this favourable average conceals sharp differences across cities. Experts that view that economic development has negative effects on the environment are an overwhelming majority in Beirut, and 50 per cent in Kuwait City, Shiraz Latin America and the Caribbean and Muharrak in Bahrain. These cities have relatively Two distinct phenomena may be at play here: the region’s large populations (Beirut, Kuwait City and Shiraz) and high rates of urban spatial expansion and relatively high intense economic activity. In Beirut, local experts see a direct link between rapid urban expansion and environmental problems, Figure 2.5.3 with one describing the city Environmental Impact of Growth* – Arab Cities as “a metaphor for brutal real estate speculation”, per cent with attendant noise 90 pollution and traffic 80 congestion.17 Similarly in Kuwait 70 City, local experts point to the construction boom 60 associated with economic 50 growth and urban expansion. As noted by 40 one, this double boom has placed “acute pressures on 30 road networks, with traffic 20 becoming a nightmare”.18 Only very few local 10 experts in Saida (Lebanon), Basra and Beirut believe 0 their respective cities promote environmental sustainability as a matter * As perceived by local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat of policy. In Beirut, Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Branch, Policy Survey, 2011 “environmental concerns

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

fact

The overall picture in Latin American cities is one of inadequate commitment to environmental sustainability, with the concomitant absence of policies or strategies. This leaves relatively few opportunities for wider participation in environmental policies, which can only further exacerbate the negative effects of economic development and urban activities on the natural environment.

Figure 2.5.4 Environmental Impact of Growth* – Latin America and Caribbean Cities per cent 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

nc Al e lS Ar am ab p Ci led tie s

rio Fo

rt-

-F

na ba Ha

vid

te on

as en

ju Ti

a m

ai ar lp

o Sa

z Pa

ell ed

te Es

a Lim

Latin America and the Caribbean is the region where a greater proportion of local experts believe that economic development and urban activities have (unintended) detrimental effects on the environment.

policy

* As perceived by local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Branch, Policy Survey, 2011

degrees of economic development. The consequences of economic development on the environment are considered as ‘serious’ or ‘very serious’ by majorities of local experts in Guadalajara, Lima, Ciudad de Este, Medellín, La Paz and Valparaíso (Figure 2.5.4). In Medellín, experts point to the 224,000 tons of pollutants discharged annually into the atmosphere, of which 66 per cent are traceable to traffic in a city that keeps expanding rapidly in both surface area and population.21 In Santo Domingo, rapid urban sprawl and population expansion are fuelled by natural resource exploitation, and the two combine with weak institutions to compound environmental problems.22 In Lima, an overwhelming number of local experts concur that environmental sustainability has not been a priority in the management of the city. The few existing initiatives are largely uncoordinated, though all under the responsibility of the central rather than local government.23 On the other hand, environmental sustainability policies have worked relatively well in Fort-de-France, Havana and Venezuela’s Guarenas. In the case of Fort-

de-France, from 2008 onwards, a determined mayor has taken action, challenging environmental misbehaviour – particularly with regard to solid waste – and vigorously enforcing rules and regulations across all sectors through a so-called ‘green brigade’.24 Similarly in Medellín, the municipality’s environmental department implements a variety of ‘sustainable’ policies with regard to noise pollution, global warming, water conservation and reforestation. A range of targets have been set involving various greenhouse gas emission controls and air quality. As one local expert put it, “the municipality is awakening and educating people towards a more responsible environmental behaviour.”25

Environmental Sustainability: A Catalyst for City Prosperity Environmental sustainability offers cities huge scope for the balanced economic growth that can pave the way to prosperity. This includes opportunities for new types of employment and investment, poverty alleviation and reduced inequity together with new types of infrastructures and services. 82

Environmental Sustainability and the Prosperity of Cities

Renewable Energies

policy

Environmental sustainability offers huge employment potential in terms of: substitution of renewable alternatives for non-renewable resources, recycling and reusing materials26, production and installation of renewable energy systems, sustainable urban transport, waste recycling, retrofitting old buildings, new sustainable buildings and infrastructures, and environmental services.27

The renewable energy sector – solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal and bio-fuel – continues to attract huge investments. In 2010, a total of USD 243 billion had been committed to this sector worldwide28; this is projected to rise to USD 630 billion by 2030, in the process creating as many as 20 million jobs.29 Although much of this has concentrated on developed countries, investments in renewable energies are beginning to materialise in the developing world.30 Around the world, about 300,000 workers are employed in the wind power sector alone, and another 100,000 in solar photovoltaic, while some 1.2 million jobs have already been created in the biomass sector in Brazil, China, Germany and the USA.31 In the UK for example, 250,000 people are already employed in the various renewable energy sectors estimated to be worth USD 53 billion annually.32 While developed countries have the lion’s share of jobs in the sustainable sector around the world, huge opportunities exist for developing countries. India is looking to create no fewer than 100 million jobs in this sector within 10 years, most of which are expected to be in the solar energy sector.33 South Africa reckons that 98,000 new ‘low carbon’ jobs are possible in the short term, and close to 717,000 in the medium to long-term34, to be split into recycling, solar energy and retrofitting of old buildings for energy efficiency.

policy

Investment in renewable energies could generate more employment and income for urban households.

Waste and Recycling In Bangladesh, 800,000 of the 3.5 million potential jobs associated with environmental sustainability are in recycling.36 Besides new jobs, waste management and recycling have also spawned technical innovations, leading to the creation of many specialised small- and medium-sized businesses in cities of developing countries.37

India: the wind turbine area of southern Tamil Nadu runs for mile after mile across the plains south of the Southern Ghats mountains, producing electricity for part of the massive demand for power throughout India. © 2012 Peter Herbert/fotoLIBRA.com

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

policy

Waste management and recycling can be a huge source of employment in developing countries where 15 million people are estimated to work in waste collecting and processing.35

Buildings

In Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, a project for collecting and recycling plastic waste has helped improve environmental conditions and has created jobs and incomes for local people, who either collect the plastic waste or work in the recycling centre. The project has also resulted in a cleaner environment in the suburbs and has generated USD 35,000 in revenues.38

Dhaka, Bangladesh: in a factory producing Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) flakes, women sort plastic bottles collected from the streets. Bangladesh exports over 20,000 tons of PET flakes made in 3,000 factories across the country. The industry is worth GBP 7 million, and growing by 20% per annum.

Buildings have a major role © G.M.B. Akash/Panos Pictures to play in climate change mitigation because of the disproportionate amounts of natural resources, waste and pollution they involve. For instance, 60 per cent of the operational energy of a typical building goes to cooling and heating, 18 per cent to water heating, six per cent to refrigeration and three per cent to

lighting. This is why buildings have been identified as having the greatest potential for reduced greenhouse emissions.40 In addition to this, environmental jobs associated with buildings will largely occur in retrofitting in accordance with new sustainable standards, designs and codes.41

Urban transport

policy

The construction industry has the largest potential to create ‘green’ jobs in urban areas. The building and construction sector employs more than 111 million people worldwide, or approximately 5–10 per cent of total employment at the country level with 75 per cent in developing countries and 90 per cent in micro-firms (those with fewer than 10 employees).39

New jobs can be created not only by replacing or retrofitting old, polluting buses, but also in retrofitting other vehicles used in urban transport, in a double effort to reduce air pollution. The bicycle industry also offers opportunities for employment, though only in a few countries. 84

Environmental Sustainability and the Prosperity of Cities

The manufacture of bicycles is dominated by China, India and the European Union, all of which account for 87 per cent of global production. However, China alone produces more than half the world’s bicycles.

policy

Public transport jobs account for 1–2 per cent of total employment in many countries. In Europe and the USA, some 30 jobs are created for every USD 1.4 million invested in public transport infrastructure, and another 57 in transport operations proper.42

Drivers and Capacity-Building for Environmental Sustainability Sustainable urban policies are driven by seven main factors: availability of financial resources, human resources, appropriate technology, specialised institutions, access to information, adequate organisational arrangements, and supportive legal frameworks. Approximately one-third of local experts across all regions are of the view that mechanisms for coordination between city and national authorities regarding environmental sustainability are already in place (Table 2.5.1). Less than one-third report that cities are mobilising investment to support sustainable resource use, or pulling their resources together in order to enhance environmental sustainability. These efforts can only go so far, it would seem, as experts simultaneously highlight the widespread problem of inadequate capacity. This refers to lack of not just finance, but also effective arrangements to facilitate partnerships with stakeholders, together with weak institutional frameworks and poor urban governance structures.44 These conditions have drastically restraining effects on cities’ ability for effective mitigation and adaptation. Similarly, cities and local authorities in developing countries may find it difficult to prioritize environmental

policy

Pilot projects in the Philippines suggest that retrofits of two-stroke engines on two- and three-wheeled vehicles − the most popular public transport in many developing countries − has cut fuel consumption by 35–50 per cent and emissions of air pollutants by as much as 90 per cent. Installing and servicing the kits creates employment.43

sustainability issues and challenges over and above unemployment, poverty, housing shortages, infrastructures and services, especially where local political expediency demands this type of action. This underscores the importance of growth and prosperity to the capacity of cities to address urban environmental sustainability issues, and this is also why they must be innovative and inventive when dealing with historic urban environmental problems while shaping an environmentally sustainable future. This situation highlights the fact that the twin dynamics of sustainability and economic prosperity are inevitably subject to a number of structural constraints that are specific to each and every urban area regardless of size.

Table 2.5.1 Drivers of Environmental Sustainability in Cities*

Regions

Available mechanism(s) for coordination between local and national authorities concerning sustainability (%)

Leveraging of investments to support sustainable resource use and lower greenhouse gas emissions (%)

Municipalities in same city/ region combining resources & partnering together for enhanced environmental sustainability (%)

Africa

Arab States

Asia

Latin America & Caribbean

All Regions

* As perceived by local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Branch, Policy Survey, 2011

State of the Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cities 2012/2013

fact

position to tackle the effects of climate change on top of poverty and inequity. The need for adequate capacity is further underscored by the fact that whereas environmental sustainability is widely recognised as essential, local authorities when faced with competing demands and budget constraints, consider it to be the least of priorities.45 This has implications for cities, especially given the role they must play in local environmental issues, including when it comes to responding to the needs of the population at a time when the need for environmental preservation is gaining more recognition in public opinion.46

Environmental sustainability requires capacity-building and resource availability at the local level.

Cities are best able to combine sustainability and shared prosperity through effective urban governance and transformational leadership. This type of leadership recognises the complex interactions between urbanisation and the environment at the local, regional, and global levels. The next step is to put in place appropriate institutions and build the institutional building capacities required for environmentally sustainable urban systems including transport, energy, waste management, rehabilitation of the built and natural environments, and management of ecosystem services. For the time being, local experts across all developing regions clearly highlight financial and institutional capacities as a major problem (Table 2.5.2). More specifically, only a few believe that efficient systems are in place in their respective regions to monitor environmentalÂ sustainability or the transport sector. Local experts also identify further challenges, suggesting that growth has a critical role to play if cities are to be in a

fact

Asia and the Arab States appear to best placed, in terms of capacities, to deal with environmental concerns and bring about more sustainable cities.

Kuwait City: skyscraper under construction. ÂŠ 2012 Wael Hamdan/fotoLIBRA.com

Table 2.5.2 Cities with the capacity for environmental sustainability* Cities making progress toward more Cities with sustainable urban environmental environment transport policies (%) (%)

Local authorities with financial & institutional capacity (%)

Integration of environmental protection plans in to policies and strategies (%)

Efficient monitoring systems for environmental sustainability (%)

Africa

Arab States

Asian

Latin America & the Caribbean

All Regions

Region

* As perceived by local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat Source: UN-Habitat, City Monitoring Branch, Policy Survey, 2011

Environmental Sustainability and the Prosperity of Cities

Nevertheless, cities need not wait until full capacity is built before adopting and implementing adequate environmental policies and strategies: indeed, in many cases cities have managed to enhance overall quality of life despite modest financial and institutional capacities.

policy

Cities must build those financial and other institutions required to achieve environmental sustainability without which economic growth will fall short of ensuring shared prosperity.

Endnotes 1

Mitlin, D., and S. Satterthwaite (1996) Sustainable Development and Cities. In Pugh, C. (ed.) Sustainability, the Environment and Urbanisation, Earthscan, London

UNEP (1996) Taking Action: Environmental Guide for You and Your Community, UNEP, Nairobi, http://www.nyo.unep.org/action/08f.htm

UN-Habitat (2003) The Challenge of Slums: Global Report on Human Settlements 2003, Earthscan, London

UN-Habitat (2011a). Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions, Abridged edition, Earthscan, London.

Cities Alliance, ICLEI and UNEP (2007) Liveable Cities: The Benefits of Urban Environmental Planning. A Cities Alliance Study on Good Practices and Useful Tools, Cities Alliance, Washington DC.

Pacione, M. (2003) ‘Urban Environmental Quality and Human Wellbeing; A Social Geographical Perspective’, Landscape and Urban Planning, vol.65, pp.19-30

WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development) (1987) Our Common Future, Oxford University Press, Oxford

United Nations (1992) Agenda 21: Programme of Action for Sustainable Development, United Nations, New York

Portney, K. E. and J.M. Berry (2011) Civil Society and Sustainable Cities. Paper prepared for the Princeton Conference on Environmental Politics: Research Frontiers in Comparative and International Environmental Politics, Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance, Princeton University, December 2-3, 2011

27 Simon, D., M. Fragkias, R.Leichenko , R. Sánchez-Rodríguez, K. Seto and B.Solecki (2011) The Green Economy and the Prosperity of Cities, background paper for ‘State of the World Cities Report 2012/13’ 28 UNEP (2011) Renewable energy: Investing in energy and resource efficiency http:// www.unep.org/greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ger/GER_6_RenewableEnergy.pdf 29 UNEP (2009) Global Green New Deal, UNEP Policy Brief, http://www.unep.org/ pdf/A_Global_Green_New_Deal_Policy_Brief.pdf 30 Martinot, E. , A. Chaurey , D. Lew, J. R. Moreira, and N. Wamukonya (2002) ‘Renewable Energy Markets in Developing Countries’, Annual Review of Energy and Environment, vol. 27, pp. 309-348. 31 UNEP, ILO ,IOE and ITUC (2008) Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work in a Sustainable, Low-Carbon World, UNEP, Nairobi 32 Peacock, L (2011) ‘Future of jobs: Green industry to create thousands of roles’, The Telegraph, September 15, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/8765695/Futureof-jobs-Green-industry-to-create-thousands-of-roles.html 33 Shukla, A. (2012) ‘India to create 100 million green jobs’, One World South Asia, February 13, http://southasia.oneworld.net/todaysheadlines/india-to-create-100million-green-jobs/?searchterm=100%20million%20green%20jobs 34 Maia, J., T. Giordano,N. Kelder, G. Bardien, M. Bodibe, P. Du Plooy, X. Jafta, D. Jarvis, E. Kruger-Cloete, G. Kuhn, R. Lepelle, L. Makaulule. K. Mosoma, S. Neoh, N. Netshitomboni, T. Ngozo, and J. Swanepoel, (2011) Green Jobs: An Estimate Of The Direct Employment Potential Of A Greening South African Economy. IDC/DBSA, Trade and Industrial Policy strategies

10 Lafferty, W.M and Eckerberg, K. (1998) From the Earth Summit to Local Agenda 21: Working Towards Sustainable Development, Earthscan, London.

35 UNEP, ILO, IOE and ITUC (2008) op. cit.

11 Africa Economic Outlook (2012) Macroeconomic Prospects, http://www. africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/outlook/forecast/

36 HK (2010) Estimating green jobs in Bangladesh: A GHK report for the ILO, http:// www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_ent/documents/publication/ wcms_159433.pdf

12 Omenya, A. (2011) City Report on Nairobi, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

37 Simon, D., M. Fragkias, R.Leichenko, R. Sánchez-Rodríguez, K. Seto and B.Solecki (2011) op.cit.

13 Ibid. 14 Awuor-Hayanga, R. (2011) City Report on Johannesburg, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

38 ILO (2007) Green jobs initiative in Burkina Faso: From waste to wages, http://www. ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/press-and-media-centre/insight/WCMS_084547/lang-en/index.htm

15 Zaidi, S.S.H. (2011) City Report on Lahore, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

39 Simon, D., M. Fragkias, R.Leichenko, R. Sánchez-Rodríguez, K. Seto and B.Solecki (2011) op.cit.

16 Belliapa, S.G. (2011) City Report on Bangalore, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

40 Ibid.

17 Fawaz, M. and N. Baghdadi (2011) City Report on Beirut. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

41 Renner, M., S. Sweeney and J. Kubit (2008) ‘Green Jobs: Working for People and the Environment’, WorldWatch Report 177, Worldwatch Institute , Washington, DC

18 Khattab, O. (2011) City Report on Kuwait City, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

42 UNEP, ILO, IOE and ITUC (2008) op. cit.

19 Ibid.

43 UNEP, ILO, IOE and ITUC (2008) op. cit.

20 Al-Bassam, D. and J. Mouris (2011) City Report on Dubai, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

44 UN-Habitat (2011b) Cities and Climate Change: Global Report on Human Settlements 2011, Earthscan, London

21 Urán, H. B. (2011) City Report on Medellín, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

45 Hess, D. and L. Winner (2006) Enhancing Justice and Sustainability at Local Level: Affordable Policies for Urban Governments, http://www.davidjhess.org/PolicyPaper.pdf

22 Castellanos, G. (2011) City Report on Santo Domingo, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

46 UNCED (1992) Capacity Building: Agenda 21’s definition (Chapter 37), United Nations, New York.

23 Galimberti, L. D. (2011) City Report on Lima, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 24 Yerro, A. P. (2011) City Report on Fort-De-France, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 25 Urán, H. B. (2011) op. cit. 26 UNEP (2008) UNEP Background Paper on Green Jobs, UNEP, Nairobi

Part Three

Policies for Prosperous Cities

Chapter 3.1

From Comparative Advantage to Urban Prosperity

Many cities derive their prosperity from their capacity to harness other advantages, particularly through repositioning themselves in the national, regional or global context. Common among all of them has been their capacity to change and adjust to new circumstances and to build upon their own history and identity. Such cities have been able to envision a new future and to use their different forms of capital and assets. Critical also has been the ability of these cities to build social and political consensus. In essence, many cities today are able to deploy the capacity of human agency and to steer growth in the new direction of choice. Indeed, the prosperity of any city is no accident. It is the result of innovation, sustained vision and good governance. It is also a result of proper laws, regulations and institutions, as well as reinvigorated planning and adequate policies. Effective use of these instruments and processes has enabled many cities around the world to optimize their comparative advantages and to set themselves along the path of prosperity. They have used a range of avenues and capitalized on different sets of ‘spokes’ in their drive to shared and sustainable growth and wellbeing. Some cities are enhancing prosperity though strategic thinking and conscious planning policies. This Geography is the case with Dubai in alone cannot the Persian Gulf, which determine which city took advantage of its will grow and which will privileged geographic decline. Other factors location to become the such as government policies, corporate largest re-exporting strategies, human centre in the Middle East, capital, major political and today is emerging forces and decisions, as a cosmopolitan investments in strategic centre. Other cities sectors, all have an are devising long-term influence on the fate of cities. visions with well-defined

Geography has always played an important role in the evolution of cities. Historically, coastal cities and cities in river deltas have been preferred locations – at present, 14 of the world’s 19 largest cities are port cities. However, with advances in transport and communication technologies and also with increasing specialization, other locational factors, beyond positions along waterways, have accelerated the growth and development of cities. Even when located in the hinterland, cities located close to other major urban centres or to important urban agglomerations have significantly gained from their position and demonstrated relatively higher levels of development. Indeed, new configurations such as mega-regions and urban corridors generate regional economies and trigger the evolution of new patterns of economic activity which contribute to prosperity. Similarly, cities which lie in the vicinity of markets and infrastructure, or close to transnational borders, have also exhibited a tendency to grow and It is time for prosper much faster.1 governments to recognize the existence The increasing number of a wide scope for human of large and dynamic cities intervention that can which are not sea or river enable cities to enhance ports confirms that much their potential as engines as geographic location is of today’s and tomorrow’s an important correlate of prosperity, both locally and nationally. a city’s prosperity, it does not explain everything.

fact

policy

From Comparative Advantage to Urban Prosperity

implementation plans, like Melbourne’s or Rio de Janeiro’s Gaziantep in Eastern Beyond strategies for improved quality of life. Turkey is a case in geography, Some other cities are enhancing prosperity based on point, with its efforts to well-managed urbanization national economic policies and investments with financial develop cultural heritage stands out as the new support from central government. The Jordanian city of tourism. Restoration comparative advantage in Aqaba on the coastline of the Red Sea was designated as and rehabilitation works this early 21st century. Special Economic Zone (ASEZ) in 2001 and benefited enhance quality of life and from a public-private venture that created a duty-free and at the same time creating multi-sectoral development. The Zone contributed to alternative means of enhanced infrastructure development, restoration of the economic development. Valparaíso, Chile’s most important city’s historic core and enhanced prosperity through the seaport and a well-known tourist resort, is repositioning its 2 development of the tourism industry. Shenzhen, too, has image as a cultural centre with facilities for entertainment, benefited from national economic and industrial policies leisure and tourism. and related strategic investments. These examples show that Many other cities are developing innovative ideas and success depends on careful design of regional and economic strategies to shape new urban identity in the pursuit of strategies, effective coordination across government tiers, prosperity. This typically includes revamped public spaces, massive infrastructure building, outstanding industrial and rehabilitation of architecture and historic landmarks, reentrepreneurial strategies, and pro-equity policies. creation of the street as part of the soul of the city, shaping a Other cities still pursue prosperity through improved ‘sense of place’ with monuments, piazzas, marketplaces and provision of goods and services at regional level. Nairobi, streetscapes as open venues for arts and cultural expression. the capital of Kenya, is capitalizing on the newly-created All of these achievements testify not just to the creative East African Common Market and Customs Union to and innovative powers of municipal and other public enhance its communications and information technology authorities; they are also the outcomes of the interplay sector, while at the same time developing its transport between the various power functions at work in any city. infrastructure to improve efficiency and productivity. Prosperity can also be pursued through other important dimensions such as knowledge development. Doha is developing education and arts as part of the city’s new cultural vision. Concepción in Chile, like the Algerian cities of Blida, Tlemcen, Sidibel-Abbès and Setif, are growing and becoming more prosperous through education institutions and higher learning.3 Some cities showcase their tangible and intangible cultural heritage and identity, in a bid to La Paz, Bolivia: providing public goods for all, irrespective of neighbourhood or income bracket. bring about social and © Eduardo Lopez Moreno economic transformations.4

policy

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

This driving power behind urban change and transformation acts as the ‘hub’ at the centre of the ‘wheel of prosperity’. Urban power functions are where the public, collective interest is determined, together with the practical rules, plans and actions that are to embed it in a specific area. The hub is where decisions are made to activate any of the five dimensions of prosperity, keeping them well-balanced and maintaining the momentum in the wheel. Part 2 of this Report detailed the respective roles of the five dimensions of urban prosperity, with the various interlinkages and multipliers involved. Part 3 presents the policy related factors underlying the prosperity of cities, including drivers and constraints. It also focuses on urban power functions – the ‘hub’ holding together, activating and controlling the five ‘spokes’ of the ‘wheel of prosperity’ across the length and breadth of any urban jurisdiction, regardless of geographic location, size or resources. Just like productivity, infrastructure or a well-preserved natural environment, these urban power functions are human constructs; it is for governments, local and municipal authorities, and society at large to make sure that these power functions work for the benefit of the majority of the population and keep enhancing shared urban prosperity.

Actualizing dreams of prosperity: penthouse in El Alto, Bolivia. © Eduardo Lopez Moreno

Factors Creating an Environment Conducive for the Prosperity of Cities

Policy-Related Factors Underlying the Prosperity of Cities

According to the local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat, the factors that create a favourable environment for cities to prosper are effective urban planning and management; decentralization polices and appropriate institutions; a system that creates equal opportunities for all; participation of civil society; elected local officials; a favourable business environment; access to basic amenities; and public transport and mobility. Most of these factors are interrelated or complementary and jointly affect the prosperity of cities. The importance of these factors with respect to the various regions is presented in Figure 3.1.1.

The policy-related factors underlying the prosperity of cities are multifaceted. They can be described in terms of drivers and constraints. The drivers could be the traditional and non-conventional factors that create an environment conducive to prosperity; they often affect the prosperity of cities in a positive manner. The constraints act as impediments that prevent a city from becoming more prosperous. These factors are further Effective urban mediated by the local planning and context, and as such, their management is perceived effects may vary across to be the most important cities and regions – a driver creating a favourable particular factor might be environment for the prosperity of cities. important in one city or region, but not in another.

Effective urban planning and management The perceived importance of urban planning is most pronounced in the Arab States followed by Africa and Asia. However, in Latin America and the Caribbean, urban planning emerges as the As a starting third most important factor point, that creates an environment urban planners must conducive for cities to view urbanization as a positive phenomenon. prosper.s

fact

policy

From Comparative Advantage to Urban Prosperity

Urban planning can contribute to the prosperity of cities in various ways. While there is growing recognition of the benefits, positive contribution and potential opportunities associated with cities, urban planners and policymakers in some developing countries are still ambivalent about the importance of urbanization and some cases, show aversion to the urbanization process. This should not be the case, because cities generate the bulk of GDP; they are the engines of growth and centres of innovation. There at least two ways to achieve this. The first is to nurture the growth of high-productivity activities – particularly manufacturing and services, which benefit from agglomeration economies. The second entails managing the negative externalities associated with the economic growth and success of cities – congestion, inequality, crime and violence, and soaring cost of land and housing, among others.5 Neglecting cities even in countries with low levels of urbanization can impose significant costs.6 The positive nature of urbanization can be beneficial to the poor if the common deprivations that affect their daily existence are adequately addressed. Such deprivations include limited access to income and

policy

Managing urbanization is essential to nurturing the prosperity of cities. Cities that want to grow and be prosperous in all five dimensions must make urbanization work well.

policy

When urbanization is planned and well-managed, and distributive mechanisms of prosperity are put in place, it can contribute to poverty reduction.

employment; inadequate living conditions; poor infrastructure and services; risks associated with living in slums; spatial issues which inhibit mobility and transport; and inequality associated with exclusion. Effective urban planning, together with

policy

Another way urban planning can bring about more liveable cities consists in tackling slums and informal settlements, as no city can claim to be prosperous when large segments of the population live in slum conditions.

Figure 3.1.1 Factors underlying urban prosperity Efficient urban planning & management

Decentralization policies & appropriate institutions

System that creates equal opportunities for all

Policies that promote participation of civil society

Elected local officials

Sound business environment & entrepreneurial culture

Access to basic amenities including public transport

per cent of respondents 35

0 Africa

Asia

LAC

Source: UN-Habitat City Monitoring Policy Survey, 2011

Arab States

All regions

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

unsustainable. Compact urban development has several advantages. It is more efficient, inclusive and sustainable. The cost of providing infrastructure is lower, access to services and facilities is improved since thresholds are higher, the urban poor find that livelihoods are less of a challenge, and social segregation is reduced. Urban planning has played a significant role in Singapore’s compact pattern and modern, convenient public transportation. Singapore is transitoriented, with high-density residential and commercial developments integrated into transport nodes. This improves accessibility to public transport.

policy

Urban planning and appropriately developed institutions and regulations can play major roles, improving urban equity through the capture and redistribution of rising land values.

political commitment, has contributed to a reduction of slums in a number of countries including Argentina, China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Morocco, South Africa and Tunisia. One positive outcome of urban growth is that it increases urban land values. Components of urban planning systems – such as re-zoning, granting of planning permission, and the provision of infrastructure and services – also contribute to higher urban land values. Experience in North and Latin America shows that value capture can be an effective way to link urban planning and land use regulations, as well as to control land use, finance urban infrastructure, and generate local revenue to fund urban management. Uncontrolled sprawl presents a major challenge for urban planning and has implications for the prosperity of cities. Urban sprawl contributes to the high numbers of cars, distances travelled, length of paved roads, fuel consumption, alteration of ecological structures and the conversion of rural land into urban uses – all of which are environmentally

Decentralization and appropriate institutions In Latin America and the Caribbean, decentralization is perceived to be the most important factor enhancing urban prosperity. This is an indication of the effectiveness, or more developed nature, of decentralization policies in Latin America and the Caribbean compared with other regions. The perceived effect of decentralization in Arab States appears to lag behind other regions. The highly centralized governance structure in the region undermines the efficiency of municipal authorities, obstructs political

policy

Urban planning can encourage more compact, efficient and sustainable urban development.

fact

Decentralization policies emerge as the second important factor enhancing urban prosperity.

Kathmandu, Nepal: the relentless urban sprawl of the Kathmandu Valley. The Vishnumati River is surrounded by suburbs which have sprung up in recent years. With few building regulations, the city keeps on growing, as many look for a better life in the city than in the countryside. The result is environmental chaos with severe noise, air and water pollution problems. © 2012 Jonathan Mitchell/fotoLIBRA.com

From Comparative Advantage to Urban Prosperity

participation and erodes the relationships between the citizenry and the level of government closest to them.7 Box 3.1 highlights how decentralization can play a key role in the prosperity of cities. While the responsibilities of municipal governments have increased following reforms in recent years, many have no access to the financial resources needed to undertake these functions. This naturally creates a mismatch between responsibilities and financial resources, and is a major reason why decentralization has been less than successful in certain countries. National reforms relating to various aspects of decentralization – revenue allocation, community participation, local elections, local planning, pro-urban development strategies – all provide the enabling environment for cities to prosper.

policy

For decentralization to strengthen urban authorities’ commitment to urban prosperity, it must be backed by fiscal devolution.

System that creates equal opportunities

policy

Decentralization works well when backed by strong commitment and support from central government.8

The importance of this factor is most pronounced in Arabs States compared with other regions. This is because Arab States are one of the most A system that egalitarian in terms of guarantees equal income distribution in the opportunities for all is developing world. This is the third important factor underlying the prosperity of reflected in an overall (low) cities. The more egalitarian Gini coefficient of 0.36, a city, the more prosperous which has been declining it becomes. over time.9 The low degree of inequality in the region has been attributed to a strong, cohesive social system, and the fact that redistribution constitutes a policy priority in Islamic economies.10 A system that creates equal opportunities for all can use redistributive policies that give priority to low-income groups and areas. In Venezuela, the government has used redistributive policies to bring significant improvements to the living standards of the urban poor through massive investment in health and education.11 With the provision of over 8,000 clinics in the barrios, people are able to access health services 24 hours a day at no cost. Similarly, illiteracy has been eliminated, pupils are no longer restricted to elementary school, and those with the required academic qualifications can attend university. Another form of redistribution policy involves conditional cash transfers. These enhance the human capital of beneficiaries through transfers which are made

fact

Box 3.1.1 Decentralization and the prosperity of cities A major benefit of decentralization as it relates to the prosperity of cities is that delivery of essential services such as water, sanitation and waste management, health and education can be carried out more effectively. Decentralization can make for better service delivery by providing greater opportunities for community-based groups to lobby for improved services. Proximity to physical demand for a service encourages effectiveness and promotes a more rational use of resources, while also allowing for closer monitoring by the beneficiary population of projects intended to serve them. The devolution of authority can foster community participation, too. Decentralization can lead to an institutional framework through which various political, religious, social, ethnic groups and multi-levels including towns and cities, can participate in making decisions that will affect them. Decentralized decision-making can provide a better framework for poverty reduction, so long as it is accompanied by fiscal devolution of powers to municipal authorities. Decentralization can accelerate economic development through active engagement of regional and municipal government units and local enterprises in economic activities. The transfer of authority and resources to local units of government and administration to design and implement programmes provides more opportunities for local citizens to play a more direct role in the development process. As catalysts for development and local change agents, they can make decisions about location of services and determine priorities.

policy

For a city to be truly prosperous, it must deploy systems that will ensure equal opportunities for all, especially the more vulnerable – the poor, women, children, the elderly, youth and the disabled. A prosperous city is one where the aspirations of all segments of the population are realized. Highly unequal cities are a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.

Source: UN-Habitat (2012) Decentralization in Iraq: Challenges and Solutions for Federal and Local Governments, Nairobi: UN-Habitat

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

conditional on certain requirements such as school attendance, visits to clinics and periodic immunization.12 Brazil’s Bolsa Família scheme, which benefits 11.1 million families, is the largest of its kind in the world, and has contributed to reducing poverty and inequality.13 Indeed, 80 per cent of Bolsa Família benefits go to families living below the poverty line; the programme also accounted for 21 per cent of the decline in inequality in Brazil between 1995 and 200414 – all of Policies that which contribute to making promote the participation of civil society cities more prosperous.

States, it is the fifth important factor. This is not surprising, given that participation of civil society has very strong roots in Latin American cities, with the best-known participatory approaches being participatory budgeting and participatory planning. A classic example of participatory planning process in Asia is the People’s Campaign for Decentralized Planning in Kerala (India), which strengthens democratic decentralization by identifying local needs and establishing local development options and priorities through local consultation and participation.15

fact

are perceived as the fourth most important factor behind enhanced urban prosperity.

policy

Participation of civil society has the potential to empower communities, build social capital, lead to better design of urban projects, and allow for citizens’ concerns to be incorporated into development strategies.

Elected local officials Research shows that durable democracy is correlated with economic development.17 Across the world, the more prosperous cities (at least economically) tend to be located in countries that are stable democracies. Democratically elected local officials owe their mandate to the people, and as such, are best placed to respond to the people’s needs, which include providing good conditions for employment,

Civil society participation The perceived importance of participation of civil society varies across regions. It is seen by local experts as the second most important factor in Latin America and the Caribbean, while in Arab

policy

Lessons from experience suggest that successful civil society participation is dependent upon certain preconditions such as: (i) a political system that encourages active citizenship and is committed to equity and remedial action; (ii) the legal basis for participation; (iii) available resources in terms of skilled and committed professionals, as well as well-resourced and empowered local governments; and (iv) informed and organized communities and stakeholders.16

From Comparative Advantage to Urban Prosperity

providing adequate infrastructure and urban services, improving the quality of life, making society more equitable, and ensuring environment sustainability. Of course, there are instances where non-democratic leadership is associated with a degree of economic prosperity, but this is the exception rather than the rule. Indeed, non-democratic regimes are coterminous with pathologies such as predation and expropriation, and in the long-run undermine the institutions underlying that prosperity.18 It has been noted that autocratic governments often distribute benefits to an elite group, while democratic governments distribute benefits more widely to gain the support of the general public.19

fact

A system that ensures that local officials are elected is ranked by local experts as the fifth most important policy-related factor that enhances urban prosperity. The election of local or city officials presupposes the existence of stable democracy through which citizens are empowered to elect and remove their leaders through an open, free and fair ballot.

policy

Political institutions like democracy are essential if the conditions for prosperity are to be laid out and nurtured.

Favourable business environment

fact

Across the four developing regions surveyed by UNHabitat, a favourable business environment is perceived to be most important in Asia – possibly pinpointing the role played by cities in the region, creating an enabling environment for businesses and attracting foreign direct investment.

A business-conducive environment is needed for a vibrant private sector, attracting and retaining investment (including foreign direct), creating jobs and improving productivity – all of which are important for the promotion of growth and for expanded opportunities for the poor.20 Cities such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul, Busan, Kuala Lumpur, Tokyo, Yokohama and Osaka all feature favourable business environments, with beneficial effects on prosperity. In Africa, it is easier to do business in St Louis (Mauritius), Johannesburg, Kigali, Tunis and Gaborone than in Kinshasa, Conakry, Asmara, N’Djamena or Bangui, which are located in countries that rank low in business environment. Generally, cities in the former group of countries tend to be more prosperous than those in the latter. Rwanda has consciously deployed a business-friendly environment, in the process bringing a higher degree of prosperity to its capital, Kigali. In recent years, Rwanda has undertaken reforms to streamline business procedures, create a favourable legal framework, reduce bureaucracy, and improve service delivery in order to promote both domestic and foreign investment. For instance, in Kigali, registering a business takes only three days and costs less than five per cent of the average income in an environment devoid of corruption, making the city “a very easy place for a global firm to operate”.21

In South Africa, the Access to basic Gautrain is expected amenities and to reduce road traffic infrastructure, including between Johannesburg improved public transport and ICT, is a factor that and Pretoria by 25,000will enhance the prosperity 30,000 cars per day; this is of any city. This factor one of the busiest roads in is considered as most South Africa where traffic important in African and increases an average seven Asian cities. per cent every year.23 In Bogotá, the BRT provides fast and reliable transport Cities with a for over 1.4 million favourable passengers per day, in the business environment and process reducing traffic entrepreneurial culture congestion and enhancing are more likely to be environmental quality.24 prosperous. In addition to the foregoing, access to basic amenities can deliver major prosperity-enhancing benefits such as: supporting economic growth; contributing to achievement of Millennium Development Goals through improved health and education; improving quality of life especially for youth and women; enhancing environmental quality through improved access to water and sanitation, which in turn reduces morbidity and mortality, and fosters greater productivity.

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Access to basic amenities An efficient mass transit system is essential for the seamless movement of people and goods within and between cities, which in turn is vital for the prosperity of cities. In Lagos, the bus rapid transport (BRT) system has attracted new patronage, lowered average fares, creating 1,000 jobs as well as indirect employment for over 500,000 people.22 97

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Some Impediments to the urban Prosperity

bureaucracy, and proliferation of corrupt practices among others. All these are incompatible with urban prosperity.

Based on the UN-Habitat local expert survey, there are seven main impediments to urban prosperity, as follows: poor governance and weak institutions; corruption; lack of appropriate infrastructure; high incidence of slums and poverty; high costs of doing business; low levels of human capital; and high crime rates (Figure 3.1.2). The hard-won prosperity gains made by cities in terms of productivity, infrastructures, quality of life, equity, social inclusion and environmental sustainability can be jeopardized or eroded, either individually or collectively, by these impediments.

Corruption Local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat unanimously concur that corruption is a major threat to the prosperity of cities. This is in line with the view that corruption is the single largest obstacle to development.27 Corruption can be found operating on a grand scale, often penetrating the highest policy-making organs of government, including urban authorities, or take a petty sort of nature, involving everyday public and social interactions. Corruption acts a deterrent to direct (and even indirect) foreign investment, as it will influence foreign firms’ decisions to locate in a particular country or city. Corruption acts like a tax, only imposed for private instead of public benefit.28 One of the reasons that foreign firms are attracted to cities such as Bridgetown (Barbados), Santiago (Chile), Gaborone (Botswana), Doha (Qatar), San Juan (Puerto Rico), St Louis (Mauritius), Kigali (Rwanda) or Victoria (Seychelles) is because they all located in countries with low levels of corruption. Corruption undermines the ability of city authorities to provide fair municipal services, as it distorts planning and allocation processes. Corruption is particularly evident in large-scale urban infrastructure projects, and distorts infrastructure spending in various ways.29 It can increase public expenditure on new infrastructure, since such capital projects can be easily manipulated by politicians and highlevel officials to obtain bribes. Corruption can reduce the resources normally available to urban authorities for improved provision of basic services such as water, sanitation, education, health and recreation, which are all essential for urban prosperity and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, many of which are urban-related. Corruption can also result in shoddy delivery of urban services. When contractors offer bribes to secure contracts, they are likely to cut back and compromise on quality in order to recoup part or whole of the bribe offered.

Poor governance and weak institutions What this implies is that countries in Africa and Arab States must do more to improve urban governance and institutions. Indeed, in many developing countries, the institutions required for urban prosperity, if they exist, are weakly developed. Proper institutions are crucial formal (Constitution, Poor governance and weak laws and regulations) and institutions act as major informal (social norms, impediments to higher customs and traditions) urban prosperity. rules that determine how people, organizations and firms make decisions of an economic, social The impact of political nature, maximize poor governance and weak institutions on potentials and optimize urban prosperity appears resources.25 to be more pronounced in Sound institutions cities in Africa and Arabs matter for the prosperity States, where over 40 per of cities, as they provide cent of experts cite this the superstructure that factor as the single most important impediment. enables, or otherwise, underlying factors to operate and deliver a maximum of benefits Corruption is to the largest possible considered by local experts as the second most majority of the population. important hindrance to Institutional inadequacies enhanced urban prosperity. take the form of weak (if not altogether lacking) legal and institutional frameworks26, disregard Corruption can for the rule of law, be detrimental poor enforcement of to urban prosperity in a variety of ways. property rights, excessive

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Inadequate infrastructure Cities with deficient infrastructure will be adversely affected on many fronts; they are less likely to be prosperous, sustainable or productive. For instance, inadequate water and sanitation facilities will lead to deterioration of the urban environment, increasing the disease burden of the

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From Comparative Advantage to Urban Prosperity

urban poor, particularly in slums and squatter settlements. Deficient infrastructure can drive up the costs of doing business in urban areas and reduce firm productivity by as much as 40 per cent30, and its impact can be as large as those of crime, bureaucracy, corruption or financial market constraints.31 Deficient infrastructure is also a major impediment to trade and competitiveness in many developing countries, particularly landlocked and small island states. In the case of Africa, the proportion of paved roads in is about five times less than in high income OECD countries; the end-result of this infrastructure bottleneck is that transport costs are 63% higher in African countries compared with developed countries.32 This has major implications for competitiveness of African cities on local and international markets.

fact

Inadequate infrastructure is a major impediment to the prosperity of cities. The impacts of deficient infrastructure appear to be more pronounced in Asian and African cities and less so in Arab States.

fact

stigmatized on account of Cities with large proportions of their their location and are often populations living in slum discriminated against in conditions are less likely to terms of access to public be prosperous. and social services, as well as employment. Slum prevalence is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa (62Â per cent), where basic services are lacking not only in informal, but formal settlements, too. North Africa features the lowest prevalence (13 per cent). In Asia, the average proportion of urban populations living in slums ranges from 25 per cent in Western Asia to 35 per cent in South Asia. In Latin America and the Caribbean, average slum prevalence is 24 per cent. To a large extent, regional patterns of slum prevalence reflect degrees of access to basic services such as water and sanitation, as well as the nature of urban development policies.

High incidence of slums and poverty Slums feature the most deplorable living and environmental conditions and are characterized by inadequate water supply, poor sanitation, overcrowded and dilapidated housing, hazardous locations, insecurity of tenure and vulnerability to serious health risks â&#x20AC;&#x201C; all of which have major implications for quality of life. Slums are also known for their atmosphere of fear and the social and economic exclusion of their residents.33 Slum dwellers are often

Figure 3.1.2 Perceived impediments to the prosperity of cities

per cent of respondents

Poor governance & weak institutions

Corruption

Inadequate infrastructure

High incidence of slums and poverty

High cost of doing business

Low levels of human capital

High levels of crime

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Africa

Asia

LAC

Source: UN-Habitat City Monitoring Policy Survey, 2011

Arab States

All regions

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

fact

Large concentrations of slums impose enormous burdens on urban authorities that often lack the resources to provide even the most basic services, with obvious consequences on prosperity. Rather than opting for proactive perspective on urban development, cities with large concentrations of slums are likely to adopt antagonistic or fragmentary approaches, which among other shortcomings tends to be expensive in the long term.

High cost of doing business

of doing business and thus, likely to be less prosperous compared to other African cities located in countries where the cost of doing business in low. In Latin America and the Caribbean, Brazil, Honduras, Bolivia, Haiti and Suriname are ranked relatively low on the ease of doing business. In Brazilian

In Africa, countries like Mauritania, Cameroon, Burundi, Benin, Eritrea, and Guinea Bissau are ranked low in terms of the ease of doing business.34 This means that their capital cities – Nouakchott, Yaoundé, Bujumbura, Porto Novo, Asmara and Bissau, will be characterized by a high cost 100

From Comparative Advantage to Urban Prosperity

cities, the business environment is bogged down by the labyrinth of bureaucracy. For instance, it takes an average of 119 days and 13 procedures to register a business.35 Anyone wishing to start a business will require approval from no less than 12 different government agencies.36 As one store owner lamented: “You need a document. But to have that document, you need to hand in seven documents. And to get each of these seven, there’s a different demand.”37

fact

Just as a favourable business environment enhances the prosperity of urban areas, the high cost of doing business can serve as an impediment to cities becoming more prosperous. A high cost of doing business has obvious implications for investment, productivity, employment, income, taxation and poverty reduction – all of which impact on the prosperity of cities.

8th for technological Low levels of innovation (as measured human capital by international patent or labour can hinder urban applications), among prosperity. When it fails to the 500 sample cities in develop and nurture human the 2010 Global Urban resources, a city will be less likely to be prosperous than Competitiveness Ranking; those with highly educated its GDP per capita was labour forces. USD 58,197 in 2007 with three per cent economic growth on an annual average basis in 2001-2007.42 Munich’s manufactured products enjoy a good international reputation and export competitiveness. The city’s large proportion of high-skilled workers, nurtured through its vocational education system, has been crucial to the city’s prosperity.

policy

Poorly developed human capital Education is essential not just for nurturing, but also for attracting talents, and bolstering innovation. The development of Boston, Silicon Valley, Oxford and Cambridge (UK) clearly benefited from the presence of reputed universities.39 Availability of highly-skilled human capital in turn attracts and generates innovative and knowledge-based industries. Within the OECD, the productivity of some metropolitan areas has been attributed to human resource endowments. For instance in Montreal, the relatively low productivity of high value-added sectors has been linked to lower educational attainment and inadequate investment, particularly in small and medium-sized enterprises.40 Similarly, in Istanbul and Mexico City, productivity and hence, prosperity, is hampered by low skills, as well as the extent of the informal sector, where adult education and skill upgrading are difficult to provide.41 Attracting and cultivating talents has become common practice The myriad for cities in the pursuit of laws, taxes of prosperity. From New and regulations and York, to Boston, London bureaucracy involved in to Vienna, Dubai to registering or running a business has been Singapore, or Bangalore to cited as one of the Shenzhen, many cities can main reasons why illustrate this phenomenon. 40 per cent of Brazilian Munich’s experience with startup businesses vocational education can hardly survive for more be particularly inspiring. than two years. The cost of bureaucracy The capital of Bavaria is staggering; in 2010 as well as the economic, bureaucracy cost the cultural, technological and Brazilian economy transportation centre of 46.3 billion reals.38 This South Germany, Munich has implications for the is one of Europe’s most prosperity of cities in Brazil. prosperous cities. It ranked

High crime rates Crime is a major deterrent to domestic and foreign investment and can cause capital flight. In Africa, more than 29 per cent of business people report that crime was a significant investment constraint.43 Investors generally worry about violent crime for fear of direct losses to business and lack of security for staff. High crime rates can have a crippling effect on the prosperity of cities. In Lusaka, for instance, fear of crime in the poverty-stricken community of Chawama can prevent teachers from showing up at work.45 In South Africa, a survey of major cities According to the showed that over a quarter local experts of respondents would not surveyed by UN-Habitat, crime emerges as another consider opening a business major impediment to the due to fear of crime, with prosperity of cities. No more than 25 per cent city can claim to be truly saying they were reluctant prosperous if it is crimeto allow their children to ridden and the population walk to school, while 30 per lives in a perpetual state of insecurity. cent stopped using public 46 transportation. In large

fact

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State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Latin America cities, high numbers of murders deter people from working evenings and at night.47 All these factors have implications for local economies, quality of life and the attractiveness of public spaces, on top of lost opportunities for socioeconomic advancement that are so crucial for the prosperity of cities.

fact

In Latin America, the financial burden of violent crime is equivalent to 25 per cent of GDP in Colombia and El Salvador; 12 per cent in Mexico and Venezuela; 11 per cent in Brazil; and five per cent in Peru.44 In Jamaica, crime has a pernicious effect on national tourism and is often cited as a major reason for the country’s weak economy.

Endnotes 1

UN-Habitat (2008) State of the World’s Cities Report 2008/09: Harmonious Cities, Earthscan, London.

24 Hidalgo, D.(2008) ‘Why is TransMilenio still so special?’, The City Fix, August 5, http:// thecityfix.com/blog/why-is-transmilenio-still-so-special/

Shabou, A., N. Soboh, K. Jalouka, and D. A. Thaib (2011) City Report on Aqaba, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

25 Sharma, S. (2005) op. cit.

UN-Habitat (2008) op.cit.

26 Oyeyinka, B. O. (2012) ‘Institutional capacity and policy for latecomer technology development’, International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, Vol. 5, (1/2), pp. 85-110.

Costas, S. (2011) Urban Tourism and Urban Change: Cities in a Global Economy, New York, Routledge

27 UN-Habitat (2007) Enhancing Urban Safety and Security: Global Report on Human Settlements 2007,Earthscan, London

Spence, M (2008) “Preface”, in Urbanization and Growth, Spence M. , P.C. Annez., and R. Buckley (eds.), Commission on Growth and Development, World Bank, Washington DC.

28 Dong, B and Torgler, (2010) The Consequences of Corruption: Evidence from China, Center for in Economics, Management and the Arts Working Paper No. 2010-06, http://www.crema-research.ch/papers/2010-06.pdf

Annez, P.C. and R. Buckley (2008) “Urbanization and growth: Setting the context”, in Urbanization and Growth, Spence M. , P.C. Annez., and R. Buckley (eds.), Commission on Growth and Development, World Bank, Washington DC.

29 Arimah, B. C. (2005) ‘What drives infrastructure spending in cities of developing countries?’, Urban Studies, Vol 42 (8), pp. 1345-1368

UN-Habitat (2012) The State of Arab Cities 2012: Challenges of Urban Transition, UN-Habitat, Nairobi.

UN-Habitat (2006) State of the World’s Cities 2006/07, Earthscan, London.

UN-Habitat (2004) State of the World’s Cities 2004/05, Earthscan, London.

Escribano, A. ,J.L. Guasch, and J. Pena (2008) ‘Impact of Infrastructure Constraints on Firm Productivity in Africa, Africa Infrastructure Diagnostic Study Working Paper 9, World Bank, Washington, DC.

31 Foster, V., and C. Briceno-Garmendia (2010) Africa’s Infrastructure: A Time for Transformation, World Bank, Washington, DC. 32 African Economic Outlook (2012) Progress in Infrastructure Developments, http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/outlook/trade_policies/progress-ininfrastructure-developments/

10 Ibid. 11 Scipes, K. (2006) ‘Venezuela and South Africa: Redistributive policies vs. neo-liberal economic policies’, Third World Traveler, http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/ Venezuela_page/Venez_SAfrica_EconPolicies.html

33 Bloom, D. E., D. Canning, and G. Fink (2008) ‘Urbanization and the wealth of nations’, Science, Vol. 319, pp. 772 - 775.

12 Hailu, D. and F. V. Soares(2008) ‘Cash transfers in Africa and Latin America: An overview”, Poverty in Focus, Number 15, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, Brasilia, pp: 3-5.

34 World Bank and International Finance Corporation (2011) op. cit. 35 Ibid.

13 Britto, T (2008) ‘Brazil’s Bolsa Família: Understanding its origins and challenges’, Poverty in Focus, Number 15, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, Brasilia, pp: 6-7.

36 Gomes, L . (2012) ‘Brazil’s labyrinth of bureaucracy’, BBC News, May 16, http://www. bbc.co.uk/news/business-18020623

14 Soares, F. V., S. Soares, M .Medeiros, , and R. G. Osório, (2006) ‘Cash transfer programmes in Brazil: Impacts on inequality and poverty‘ , International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth working Paper, Number 21, International Poverty Centre Brasilia

38 Gomes (2012) op.cit.

15 UN-Habitat (2009) Planning Sustainable Cities: Global Report on Human Settlements 2009. Earthscan, London

40 OECD (2006) Competitive Cities in the Global Economy, OECD, Paris

37 Ibid. 39 Pengfei, Ni (2011) Driving factors of Prosperity: An Empirical Analysis Global Cities, background paper for ‘State of the World Cities Report 2012/13’ 41 Ibid.

16 UN-Habitat(2009) op. cit.

42 Pengfei, Ni (2011) op. cit.

17 Sharma, S. (2005) ‘Democracy, good governance, and economic development’, Taiwan Journal of Democracy, vol 3 (1), pp: 29-62.

43 UNODC (2005) Crime and Development in Africa, http://www.unodc.org/pdf/ African_report.pdf

18 Sharma, S. (2005) op. cit.

44 Moser, C. , A.Winton, and A.Moser (2005) ‘Violence, Fear among the Urban Poor in Latin America’ In The Urban Poor in Latin America, Fay, M (ed.) World Bank, Washington, DC.

19 Holcombe, R. G. (2012) ‘Democracy and Prosperity,’ in Young, B. C. (ed.) Institutional Economics and National Competitiveness, Routledge, London 20 World Bank and International Finance Corporation (2011) Doing Business 2012: Doing Business in a More Transparent World, World Bank.Washington DC

45 Moser, C. O. N. and J. Holland (1997) ‘Confronting crisis in Chawama, Lusaka Zambia’, Household Responses to Poverty and Vulnerability, Vol 4, Urban Programme Management Policy Paper 24, World Bank, Washington, DC.

21 The Economist (2012) ‘Business in Rwanda: Africa’s Singapore?’, The Economist, February 25, http://www.economist.com/node/21548263

46 UNODC (2005) op.cit.

22 World Bank (2009) Getting people and traffic moving again in Lagos, http://web. worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTABOUTUS/IDA/0,,contentMDK:22229765~men uPK:4754051~pagePK:51236175~piPK:437394~theSitePK:73154,00.html 23

47 Hamermesh, D. S. (1998) Crime and the Timing of Work, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 6613,NBER, Boston

BBC (2011) ‘South Africa Gautrain opens Johannesburg-Pretoria route’, BBC News, August 2, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14371113

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Chapter 3.2

Innovating to Support the Transition to the City of the 21st Century

Creativity and The cities innovation are largely and countries influenced by six main best placed for economic types of factors: (1) growth and prosperity are locational advantages those that invest in building (i.e., economies of knowledge and innovation institutions and related agglomeration and systems with strong support ‘positive externalities’ from public authorities and at regional scale); (2) the private sector.3 knowledge networks; (3) cultural factors; (4) the economic environment; (5) organizational factors; and (6) state/government interventions (i.e., policies, incentives, institutions). ‘Innovation’, as glorified in association with ‘creative cities’, the ‘creative class’ and ‘city competition’, more often than not is in the sole benefit of business and economic elites,4 and it fails to integrate the various dimensions of prosperity, particularly equitable development and environmental sustainability. Innovation is a creative capital that is brought to bear on various dimensions of development and prosperity, in the process unleashing undeveloped potential and making fuller use of local resources and assets. The culture of creativity must be embedded in the way cities operate.6 Therefore, it is not just for government or business, but also for communities and the public at large to Innovation, as defined in this contribute their own Report, is a broader powers of imagination. notion that has to do And this has to be not just with creative approaches encouraged but legitimised to planning, economy, as well, in a bid to broaden social inclusion, the range of solutions to environment, culture and local identity.5 urban issues.

policy

Cities have played a major role in creativity and innovation throughout history. Creative people and systems, innovative milieus, knowledge creation mechanisms, and new technological developments have all primarily happened in cities and all contributed to societal development and prosperity. Creativity and innovation involve a variety of areas that range from technology, institutions and organizations, modes of operation, information and knowledge, finance and human development. Innovation can also take a variety of forms, including improved project design and quality, changes in organization and management, higher efficiency, high- and medium-tech industrial development, creation of new linkages and coordination mechanisms, scientific research and the commercialisation of technical knowledge.1 Creativity and This goes to show that, to innovation a large extent, creativity can flourish in many and innovation are already other areas that do embedded in economic not automatically contribute to economic functions and under development per se the control of financial such as developing and capital.2 In technologies managing urban life, and the arts alike, the renewal of social innovation is increasingly institutions, better urban dominated by the private policies, development of knowledge networks, etc. sector.

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and where links can flourish among both individuals and institutions. In practice, all of this requires well-adapted physical environments, which in turn have to do with urbanization economies9 and better urban planning. From a more institutional point of view, support to knowledge exchange and networking is another way of stimulating creative capital, along with favourable conditions for research and development. As for the productive sector, creative stimulation can also derive from economies of agglomeration and an entrepreneur-friendly environment. It may come as no surprise that in Asia, most local experts saw a strong link between research and development (R&D), on the one hand, and enhanced prosperity on the other, with public authorities and other stakeholders playing significant roles in the areas of business, industry and technology. This was the case in Singapore, Hyderabad and Bangalore (India), Shenzhen and Chongqing (China), Gaziantep (Turkey) and Cebu (the Philippines). In Singapore, gross expenditure on R&D increased from 1.9 per cent in 1990 to 2.8 per cent 2008 and three per cent in 201010, with the focus on applied research, technology, sustainable urban living and ‘clean’ energy.11 In Bangalore, the emergence of the city as a knowledge hub is a visible impact of policy, entrepreneurship and innovation. With more than 66 engineering colleges and 55 polytechnics, the city has developed as a centre for scientific innovation, research in aeronautics and electronics with strong public research facilities.12 Biotechnologies and computer/communications also feature highly in Hyderabad, India’s pharmaceutical capital, with support from central government and more than 40 research and educational institutions.13 Shenzhen has developed an endogenous innovation strategy led by the state with investments from government agencies, industries and universities. In few years, the city has developed a high-tech, modern service UN-Habitat industry, actively promoting survey shows industrial transformation that five main factors and upgrade, focusing are at play when cities innovate: innovative on electronics, biological urban management, engineering and new entrepreneurial capacity, material technology. the promotion of The city has also made arts and culture, the important innovations emergence of industrial in the service industry clusters, and research and development (R&D). (finance, logistics and

Box 3.2.1 Measuring Innovation and Creativity In 2000 a “Creative City Index” was developed to measure ‘the imaginative pulse of cities’, combining a variety of indicators ranging from political and public frameworks, diversity, vitality and expression, openness and tolerance, entrepreneurship, vision, liveability, learning and professionalism, among 10 specific dimensions. In 2007, Melbourne-based “2thinkNow” developed an “Innovation Cities Program” along with an “Innovation Cities Index” in a bid to enhance understanding of the links between innovation and the way cities operate. The measure also uses a large variety of indicators, involving cultural assets, infrastructure and networked markets in areas such as commerce, finance, food, the arts, health, technology, religion, the media, etc. On this basis, cities are classified in five categories: ‘nexus’ (cities featuring critical innovations),’hub’ (cities that are influential in key areas), ‘node’ (cities combining broadranging performance and imbalances), ‘influencer’ (cities that are competitive but unbalanced on the whole), and ‘upstart’ (cities with potential for future performance). Source: UN-Habitat (2012) Decentralization in Iraq: Challenges and Solutions for Federal and Local Governments, Nairobi: UN-Habitat

policy

A creative city must establish a balance between ‘hardware’ factors – infrastructure and technology – and ‘software’ factors (including mind-set, dynamics of place, the connection between thinkers and doers, and a change-friendly environment).7

The Factors behind Urban Innovativeness Innovation can emanate from a creative worker, a community leader, a business person, an artist, a public servant or a scientist, etc. Innovation can respond to a specific problem, reduce risks, anticipate challenges, result in new products or process, or harness existing or emerging opportunities. For the purposes of urban prosperity, innovation has a clear role in improved conditions for populations and the way they live, work, move, relax and more generally make the most of the urban advantage. If its existing creative capital is to be enhanced, or activated The culture of where dormant, a city creativity must should become a locus be embedded in the way cities operate.8 where sociocultural diversity can be staged,

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Singapore: an innovative bronze sculpture of five boys jumping into the river for a swim, by local sculptor Chong Fah Cheong, installed at the Open Air Interpretive Centre along the Singapore River serves to remind viewers of the essential freedoms that underpin a vital and prosperous city. ÂŠ Sengkang

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culture) as a way to drive economic growth and prosperity.14 Still in China, Chongqing has utilized a state-led investment to stimulate the economy and improve social welfare by optimizing endogenous development through research and technology. Chongqing strategy “Three Centers, Two Hubs, and One Base” connects business, finance and education with a strong support of infrastructure, communication and a modern base of hightech industry.15 In southeast Turkey, Gaziantep – one of the oldest inhabited cities in the world – has deliberately embraced R&D and innovation, with various educational institutions explicitly supporting entrepreneurship. Business has cooperated with public authorities to launch a number of initiatives known as Trademark City, Smart Industry, Teknopark, Innovation Valley and R&D Movement to

open up markets, diversify the economy and promote employment in the search of prosperity.16 With the exception of South Africa and Brazil, which recorded the highest expenditure on R&D as a percentage of GDP in their respective regions (around 1 per cent in 2008), the Latin America region and the Sub-Saharan Africa had an average expenditure of about 0.6 per cent. In some African countries such as Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Uganda, Zambia, among many others, this expenditure was under 0.4 per cent.17

fact

In contrast to Asia, the share of R&D as a per cent of GDP expenditure in Africa and Latin America is low, where not next to nil. In the absence of any systematic public sector involvement, creativity and innovation largely remain the purview of the private sector.

A Variety of Social and Institutional Innovations

Many factors stand in the way of urban innovation, especially in developing countries. Not all these factors have been sufficiently identified, understood or addressed. Still, seven major types of deficiency seem to play significant roles: (1) poor physical and knowledge infrastructure; (2) an absence of appropriate innovation policies (due to lack of interest or understanding); (3) limited financial resources; (4) weak local institutions (formal or informal); (5) unavailability of human resources (number and qualification of personnel); (6) lack of stakeholder participation Nairobi, Kenya: children play in a schoolyard in Kibera. The newly introduced Pesapal system enables and coordination in school fees to be paid by the Internet or mobile telephone. the elaboration and © Meunierd/Shutterstock.com implementation of innovation policies; and (7) poor incentives (if any). In other cases, the problems instead lie in technology transfer and poor adaptation to local know-how.18 But then ‘home-made’ innovations, too, can be poorly related to local and national conditions, or overlook the needs of the underprivileged, when they fail “to take into due consideration the plurality of knowledge and technological options” that are locally available.19 The city of Johannesburg has adopted an innovative governance 106

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model to rebuild local government and improve service delivery. Bangalore in India has launched technologybased public-private experiments in governance in a bid better to deliver public services, too. In Latin America and the Caribbean, Rosario, just like Santo Domingo, has introduced significant institutional innovations in terms of participatory governance. In Nairobi, Kenya, the private sector has launched ‘Pesapal’ a new payment platform enabling low- and middle-income residents to conduct e-commerce transactions and even to pay school fees via cell phones or the Internet. Many other social and institutional innovations involve the creation of new systems and models to meet the needs of underserved populations in a more efficient, effective, and sustainable manner. In Iran’s Tehran, the scope of the WHO-UN-Habitat ‘Urban HEART’ Programme has been extended to assess equity under not just under the health dimension but also a more general social perspective. Shenzhen has created a multilevel social security system that includes basic social insurance, poverty insurance, compensation for job seekers, and special care for patients and the disabled, which includes the migrant population that represents up to 75 per cent of the population.20 Chongqing has created investment companies to activate state-owned capital to speed up the construction of infrastructure and public facilities, using a combination of innovative funding mechanisms: taxes, land reserves, fees, state bonds and state-owned capital.21 Social and institutional innovation can take the form of enlightened rules or legislation. In Cebu, the Philippines, an ordinance now encourages those employed in outsourced business processing services to enrol in (post)graduate studies, in a bid to expand the pool of highly skilled people. Rosario, Argentina, has declared itself a “Human Rights City”, with a commitment to openness, transparency and accountability.22 Some other institutional innovations connect urban planning and design with the use of social public space. In Colombia, Bogotá has improved many diverse public spaces Innovations are (sidewalks, public parks often copied or transferred from and libraries) in a bid to abroad. More often than rebuild social cohesion. not though, this causes Singapore’s ‘Skyway’ is a problems as foreign spectacular aerial walkway innovation runs against among giant man-made the grain of the social or trees that collect rainwater cultural features of the target communities. and generate solar energy,

and is an invitation to view the city from a different perspective. In Korea, the municipality of Seoul resorts to urban design to improve the efficiency and enhance the attractiveness of the city with innovative projects, such as the ‘Han River Renaissance’ scheme and the ‘City in the Park’ initiative.23

policy

Cities have interest to promote social and institutional innovations in response to local problems to address social needs and improve the efficiency and quality of urban management.

The Transformative Power of Innovations Almost by definition, innovation processes are not linear, nor are they easily controllable. However, as far as urban innovation is concerned, a consistent basic pattern seems to be at work. Whether in response to new risks or immediate emergencies, or in more ordinary circumstances, urban innovation seems to result from cooperation and dialogue among a broad variety of stakeholders. Such dialogue acts as a catalyst, bringing together a variety of perspectives, resources, capacities and types of human capital.24 Innovations introduce knowledge, products, processes and programmes that change the ways of doing business or using resources, or even social attitudes and preferences. Innovations are at the core of all economic processes and they contribute to knowledge generation and information flows’.25 Innovations of a technological nature have added value and helped transform the urban space (e.g., connectivity, proximity It is in cities’ and distance, de-location best interests of manufacturing). to strengthen the links between policy-makers, Although innovations business, academia, civil take place mainly in major society and a variety of metropolitan centres, practitioners to promote they are not restricted to urban innovations. big cities. The transformative power of innovation is Local authorities closely linked to the various are becoming components of prosperity – increasingly aware that productivity, infrastructure, promoting interactions, quality of life, equity synergies and adequate and environmental environments can sustainability. Innovation enhance local creative capital and prosperity. can contribute to any of

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these dimensions or respond to the supporting institutions and policies at the core of these dimensions (see the ‘Wheel of Prosperity’, Chapter 1.4) steering the course of the city along the path of prosperity and sustainable development. From this more general, strategic perspective, innovation can bring four major types of benefits: (1) reviving and sustaining the social economy (e.g.. better policies for human needs satisfaction); (2) changes in social relations (e.g. new societal arrangements, new social pact); (3) reinforcing existing, or creating new, institutions for improved urban management and governance (e.g., regulation of land or social conflicts, new legislation); and (4) forward-looking changes to the urban space (e.g. resource redistribution, expanded access to services and public goods). Any value added by all these social and

institutional innovations will accrue primarily to society as a whole, rather than private individuals or groups26, enhancing the prospects of prosperity and giving its full meaning to the notion of ‘spatial justice’.27 Being a social construct, any city can be steered and shaped towards higher levels of prosperity. A fresh, different vision of urban planning and design can combine with new, more insightful change narratives and development ideas. As urban risks and challenges keep changing over space and time, existing safeguards, instruments or mechanisms must come under review and be adjusted as and where required. Innovation must also help reduce the cost of urban living. Innovative rules and legislation must support the transformation of the existing urban model. The current model is unsustainable for several reasons: endless physical expansion, intensive energy use, alarming and dangerous contributions to climate change, multiple forms of inequality and exclusion, and inability to provide decent jobs and livelihoods.28 If ongoing urbanization is to usher in the city of the 21st century, then this transformation must be grounded in a more effective and sustainable use of urban space. The city of the 21st century is a reinvented city that is more productive, equitable and sustainable. It is a more prosperous city.

Urban Prosperity Through Planning and Design In the midst of ongoing demographic, socioeconomic or environmental cross-currents, cities must reassert control over their destinies with reinvigorated urban planning and design for the sake of shared prosperity and harmonious development. This imperative comes as a reminder of the fact that so far, in most cities of the developing world, modern urban planning (where any) has proved unable to nurture shared socioeconomic advancement. For all the paraphernalia of legislation, complex regulations and spatial design plans, a majority of those cities have continued with the flawed models which, as ‘advanced’ countries have finally found out, are unsustainable in a variety of ways. Cities have found themselves woefully unprepared in the face of the spatial and demographic challenges associated with urbanization, not to mention those of an environmental nature. With a few commendable

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exceptions, modern urban planning has failed to integrate the urban poor in the socioeconomic fabric of the city. As an expert in Bangalore put it, “The poor have survived despite master planning.”30 Understood primarily as a technical tool, planning has been unable to address the power relations that have been at work to the detriment of the great majorities of urban populations. Planning has also proved unable to prevent environmental degradation or the formation of slums, and is notable for serious shortcomings in terms of transport and urban mobility. Conceived as a comprehensive, long-term strategy, a master plan – the quintessence of modern planning – typically represents an ideal end-state for a particular city with serious gaps between the initial vision and actual results. This has ensued in what a scholar in 1996 called “the dark side of planning”31, something an expert in Montevideo has referred to as “urban plans that are at odds with the notion of prosperity.”32 The shortcomings of modern urban planning have triggered significant reform since the 1980s and 1990s, in an effort to move away from comprehensive plans, top-down decision-making and wide-ranging regulation.33 A more flexible approach was adopted to improve conditions in cities, through ‘strategic planning’ and other methods that are more pragmatic, incremental and typically focused on ‘getting things done’. However, too many ‘strategic urban plans’ have effectively imposed an entrepreneurial view of the city, promoting mostly economic prosperity and often turning into marketing gimmicks in all but name, complete with oversized architectural designs and mega-developments. In emerging or developing countries, these initiatives typically favour the gentrification of entire areas and, at times, massive displacement in order to make room for highways, skyscrapers, luxury compounds, shopping malls, etc., at the expense of the habitat and livelihoods of the poor.34 UN-Habitat policy analysis in 50 cities in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Arab States (2011) shows that up to 80 per cent of local experts believe that the benefits of economic Whatever prosperity mainly serve the the planning approach, powerful interests of the wealthy and political and economic politicians (a view shared interests keep interfering by up to 90 per cent of with the design and African experts). Through implementation of political influence, bribery strategic plans and and corruption, these the pursuit of urban prosperity for all. powerful interest groups

fact

From Asia to Africa to Latin America, ‘master’, ‘blueprint’ and layout plans have had similar, harmful consequences in countless numbers of cities: spatial segregation, social exclusion, excessive mobility needs and consumption of energy, together with poor regard for the potential economies of scale and agglomeration that any city can offer.29

manage to distort urban plans, dodge spatial or legal rules, reduce the production of public goods and manipulate the power of eminent domain; in the process they capture unfair shares of a city’s potential, resources and prosperity to the detriment of large, poor majorities of urban populations. The New Urbanism Movement of the early 1980s broke with conventional master-planning and introduced a number of welcome innovations: liveable, pedestrianfriendly cities, dense neighbourhoods with mixes of housing and job-creating commercial and business sites, together with mixed land uses having a diversity of buildings in terms of style, size, price and function – all of this with a strong focus on local communities.35 For all these fresh efforts, though, a conventional approach to urban development has remained dominant to this day. In developing and emerging countries alike, cities are still hostages to a mix of homogeneous forms or functions on the one hand, and spatial /social segregation on the other hand. Urban areas continue to expand across endless peripheries, with serious, pervasive problems of traffic congestion, enhancing the dependence on motor vehicles and intensive use of expensive fossil fuels. This dominant type of city is detrimental to the built heritage and the environment, including surrounding agricultural land, as well as biodiversity. Today, the This is the pattern which GS20C UN-Habitat refers to as model appears to be the “Global Standard predominant across Urbanization Model the world, being largely driven by land of the 20th Century” speculation and real 36 (GS20C), which estate interests that privileges individualism, build cities according to consumerism, new financial and economic (artificial) values and parameters often lifestyles, excessive mobility radically at odds with shared prosperity.37 and privatization of the public space.

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Re-positioning Urban Planning at the Hub of the Wheel of Prosperity

making; (iii) deployment of the fullness of its functions across the five dimensions of shared prosperity; and (iv) support for these functions with adequate financing. Restoration of confidence: Public confidence must be restored in the capacity of urban planning (alongside other urban power functions) to represent the interests of all the population – including the poor, women, children, youth, elderly or disabled people, immigrants and ethnic minorities – so that the public, collective interest prevails at all times and across the whole jurisdiction over any other, and more particularly the vested or special interests of the rich and powerful. Repositioning: If it is to play this stronger role to the full, urban planning must be re-positioned. No longer a mere technical functionality, urban planning must sit at the core of urban power. Urban planning can only be as good as the values it represents and the governance mechanisms that frame it.

“The city has many scars to treat and many wounds to cure; urban planning is powerless to do that”38, claims an expert in Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic). Still, in the 50 cities surveyed by UN-Habitat in 2011, efficient urban planning and urban management are perceived as the most important conditions for shared prosperity.39 For any revival or If urban planning reinvigoration of urban is to be in a planning to take place better position to address in the pursuit of shared the shortcomings of the GS20C model, both theory prosperity, four conditions and practice must come must be met: (i) restoration under serious review to of public confidence; (ii) ‘rescue’ the discipline from repositioning of urban its role as a mere technical planning in decisiontool, restoring it to its

policy

rightful position in the public sphere.

Box 3.2.2

policy

As a decisionmaking tool urban planning must better defend the ‘public’ against the menace of everexpanding ‘private’ interests and its consequences: shrinking public spaces and reduced provision of public goods, which affect more collective, intangible dimensions like quality of life, social interaction, cultural identity and social values.

fact

Very often planning has failed to represent correctly collective values and agreements, instead of contributing to the perpetuation of the urban divide with daunting, outdated, irrelevant requirements.

Streetwise versus Petrol-Powered Prosperity In Peru’s capital Lima, it has taken ‘only’ an open-air public staircase all the way downhill to the city centre to change the name of an informal settlement from fearful ‘Quick Sands’ to ‘The Belt of Hope’. This goes to show the regenerating power of planning for urban public spaces and their decisive role in shared prosperity – well away from the constraints of the outdated automobile-based model of urban development. Indeed, public spaces, as symbolized by ‘the street’, can make significant contributions to socioeconomic prosperity, if only they are adequately configured. The street acts as the interface between public and private spaces, with retail businesses and jobs dependent on the quality of the pedestrian environment. In British towns, customers were found to spend nearly twice as much when walking instead of driving. In Mexico, research has shown that ‘walkability’ improves home and land values. Public spaces provide the physical support for urban infrastructure. However, particularly in the developing world, streets are designed mainly for motorized traffic, overlooking the human dimension and only adding to congestion with more or wider streets. The resulting huge imbalance in transport options damages other aspects of urban functionality. A number of cities have sought to counter this trend in a variety of ways. As early as 1962 motor vehicles were banned from Copenhagen’s main street and bicycle commuting was facilitated. In Melbourne, improved sidewalks, new pedestrian streets, squares and urban design have together increased pedestrian traffic by 39 per cent in daytime and 100 per cent at night. Combined with other modes of popular transport like biking and walking, Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) has spread from Curitiba (Colombia) to Jakarta, Bogotá, Guatemala City, Guangzhou, Istanbul, Mexico City, Brisbane and Los Angeles, among others. Upgraded and better designed public spaces have the potential to improve overall quality of life. In Cape Town under the Dignified Places Programme, more than 40 projects have brought dignity, beauty and better functionality to various areas, in the process demonstrating that after decades of repression it was once again possible to meet and talk in a shared space.

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Working on the five ‘spokes’: Interdependencies and interactions among the five ‘spokes’ in the ‘wheel of urban prosperity’ (productivity, infrastructure, quality of life, equity and environmental sustainability) can be deliberately enhanced (as opposed to being allowed to occur all by themselves) through the strategies and interventions that are part and parcel of urban planning. More specifically, it is in the power of a well-planned decision or well-calibrated choice in one dimension of prosperity − for example, the design of a street supporting multimodal transport as part of the infrastructure development of the city − not just to make that particular part of the urban space more accessible or pedestrian-friendly, but in the process also to improve productivity (shops, street-trading, etc.), quality of life and social inclusion (see Box 3.2.1.). Financial support: For urban planning to work more efficiently as an urban power function, it must be reinforced from a financial and legal point of view. Cities need more permanent funding mechanisms to support the provision of public goods and the design and implementation of sustainable technical solutions if their performance and functionality are to be improved. Few cities or countries are in a proper legal position to do that, and where they are, they find themselves faced with systematic interference by special interest groups or political expediency.40 Here again, the public interest must prevail, and governments must look to improve and enforce the mechanisms that enable local authorities to capture urban land and site values, in the process generating the revenues needed to extend prosperity to the poorest areas.41

policy

Restoring urban planning at the central point of the ‘wheel’, where a solid and efficient institutional ‘hub’ holds together, controls and activates the five ‘spokes’ , can only enhance the conditions for sustained, shared prosperity.

policy

an expert in Panama Land legislation City.42 Either by action or and planning must combine to put omission, this type of urban municipal authorities planning contributes to in a better position to the production of spatial extract land values and inequities, rather than related capital gains, with better shared prosperity. the additional revenue This reinvigorated available for the funding of infrastructure extensions notion of urban planning and other projects. comes with a new value system that relies on effective institutions, welladapted laws and regulations, sustainable urban solutions and active civic involvement in public affairs. This type of planning signals a paradigm shift towards a new urban pattern − the city of the 21st century: a city that can better respond to the challenges of our age, optimizing resources to harness the potentialities of the future; a people-centred city, one that is capable of transcending the inefficient, unsustainable GS20C model, in the process integrating and nurturing the five dimensions of urban prosperity as defined in this Report. However, if urban planning is to be reinvigorated, it must shift away from the ‘spoke’ of productivity, where it has been predominantly operating these past several decades, to the centre of the ‘wheel’, right in the ‘hub’: indeed this is where, as an urban power function, planning will be in a better position to make its beneficial influence felt across all the ‘spokes’, increasing the scope of shared prosperity across the whole of the The 21st city. This will, of course, century is in a involve political choices position to ensure equitable and commitments, which development, preserve the natural environment, must be turned into tools, promote inexpensive energy regulations and sustainable sources, provide necessary technical solutions, which infrastructures and ensure will be all the better inclusive economic growth. accepted by society at large The city of the 21st century as they are seen to embed builds the conditions of prosperity for all. shared prosperity across the whole urban space.

Expanding Prosperity: Changing City Landscapes In many cities, urban planning has been instrumentalised by the real estate business. Cities that respond to the interests of the better-off or only focus on strategic economic interventions in specific spaces tend to create enclaves of prosperity for a select few. Urban planning can be so unrealistic or overUN-Habitat ambitious as to overlook calls for a fresh, different type the need to steer and of urban planning and control spatial expansion, design – one that has with large parts of the city the power to transform ignoring existing plans or city landscapes and regulations. “The city falls expand existing out of the map, making enclaves of prosperity to the entire city. it irrelevant”, deplores

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Facilitating Access to ‘Commons’, Providing Public Goods, Implementing Sustainable Solutions

concentrating public investment in selected areas only, limiting access and privatizing control over a number of such goods. The provision of public goods contributes to economic advancement with environmental preservation and quality of life, which, incidentally, are fundamental ‘smart growth’ concerns, too.45 Bogotá has transformed its own landscape with a variety of public goods such as multi-modal transport, social infrastructure and quality public spaces that have contributed to sharing more of the benefits of prosperity with poor and middle-income neighbourhoods. Still in Colombia, Medellín has resorted to bold civic architecture, public spaces and other public goods in a bid to enhance collective prosperity. Involvement of urban planning with education, culture, infrastructure, safety and community development has enabled the municipality to connect poor barrios (which, according to the head of municipal planning, “always had lots of energy, but were disconnected from the city”) with more affluent neighbourhoods, in the process planting the seeds of mutual trust and expanding shared prosperity.46 Acting from the ‘hub’ of the ‘wheel for prosperity’, urban planning can identify strategies and plan for optimal production of public goods, in the process contributing to social capital, enhancing sense of place, safety and security, integrating social groups (e.g., youth), and increasing the economic value of the areas where these goods are provided. This strategy can generate widespread benefits to all urban residents, expanding prosperity across different areas. Such prosperity in turn can be leveraged for maintenance and further enhancement of public goods. Implementing Sustainable Solutions: Prosperous cities must plan and implement a variety of technical solutions to improve the functionality of the city and achieve a sustainable urban form. Although solutions can vary according to local A conditions, UN-Habitat reinvigorated has identified a number notion of urban planning of key interventions in would give any city various areas to assist the tighter public control over the use of land, transition away from the change the form and current “Global Standard function of cities Urbanization Model of the based on sustainable 20th Century” (GS20C), development principles, which is unsustainable as well as expand the on many accounts, to the provision of, and access to, public goods. city of the 21st century.

Facilitating Access to ‘Commons’: A prosperous city facilitates equitable access to the ‘commons’. These include water, air, biodiversity, knowledge and other shared resources, including public infrastructure, together with more intangible forms like a better environment, sense of identity and cultural and symbolic spaces that in principle belong to everyone. Cities with islands of prosperity tend to enclose the ‘commons’, restrict their use to a selected few, or deplete them through unsustainable use. Prosperous cities require ‘commons resource pools’, which can take the form of institutional arrangements where conflicts are solved through negotiation, and consensus is built for decision-making. ‘Commons’ also include any legal or statutory provisions facilitating community participation in planning decisions, available quality information, transparency as well as cultural norms and social compacts. Some public goods, such as community civic centres, will often be found to function as ‘space commons’, facilitating the integration of marginal and voiceless groups, in the process promoting pluralism and diversity, which are inseparable from shared prosperity. Providing public goods43: A prosperous city makes a profusion of public goods available to all: efficient public transport, educational opportunities, healthcare, quality public spaces such UN-Habitat’s as libraries, recreation reinvigorated areas, parks and open notion of urban planning spaces, etc. A substantial involves sustainable use and equitable access to part of urban well-being the ‘commons’ through is derived from access to appropriate policies and and consumption of these schemes. public goods, which in principle must be ‘nonexcludable’ (everyone can enjoy their benefits) and In general, the production AND ‘non-rivalry’ (individual enjoyment of public goods consumption of the good rely on a set of ‘commons’ does not decrease the such as better connectivity, amount available for public security and safety, consumption by others).44 predictability, property rights Enclaves of prosperity under their various forms, street nomenclature, etc. ‘fence in’ or restrict the availability of public goods,

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As suggested earlier, it is in the power of well-calibrated planning rules and interventions to help embed the five dimensions of shared prosperity across the length and breadth of any urban jurisdiction. Making more functional the city, preserving access to the commons and producing useful public goods can be achieved through five different, sustainable types of intervention: Increase population density to sustainable levels: More intense land occupation and activities result in sustainable population densities which contain or reduce urban sprawl and depletion of limited resources. Greater proximity will, in turn, facilitate supply and distribution of goods and services. An efficient layout (together with adequate land legislation and policies) can reduce the cost of infrastructure. On top of suburban densification and sprawl remediation, land use can be intensified through area redevelopment, planning for new areas with higher densities, ‘brownfield’ development (i.e., decontaminating and developing land previously used for industrial or certain commercial purposes), building conversions, and transit-oriented developments. Encourage social diversity and mixed land-use: Land planning can bring about clusters of land uses in appropriate locations, with the flexibility needed to adapt to the changing requirements of the population. Urban planning must facilitate the deployment of common spaces that allow encounter, interaction and dialogue between different socialethnic groups. Moreover, physical urban structure facilitates communication between economic activities and residential areas, providing employment and services on a neighbourhood scale, with positive repercussions on productivity, infrastructure, equity, quality of life and the environment. Urban design strengthens and

policy

Acting at the space level (form and function of the city), urban planning can steer the overall functioning of the ‘wheel’, modulating each dimension of prosperity and ensuring synergies between them in order to maintain overall balance and sustainable growth, regardless of city size or level of development.

empowers structures through infrastructure and facilities (education, healthcare, commerce, manufacturing and culture/entertainment). Devise multimodal mobility strategies: Urban planning can provide alternatives to the current widespread dependency on private motorised vehicles and reinforce

London, UK: the Olympic Park for the 2012 Olympics Stratford was constructed on brownfield sites in an area of East London that had been previously rundown. After the Olympic games, the site is to be used to accommodate low cost housing as well as leisure activities. © 2012 Alistair Laming/fotoLIBRA.com

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use of public transport in combination with non-motorized modes and proper sidewalks. An integrated urban transport strategy generates immediate effects on productivity, including reductions in travel times. Improved transport systems come with environmental benefits such as better air quality due to reduced exhaust fumes. Accessibility for all potential users is essential to ensure equal mobility opportunities. Plan infill development and guided expansion: Urban planning must combine both of these for the sake of proper density and provision of affordable urban land. Infill development can revitalize dilapidated areas in the city. In those developing countries where urbanization continues apace, new areas must be developed for the benefit of newcomers if further slum expansion is to be avoided. Properly planned spatial patterns can reduce pressure on land, provide for urban services and alleviate the burden over existing infrastructure. In addition, forward-looking planning can put a halt to land speculation while facilitating access to affordable housing and urban services. Promote Livable public spaces and vibrant streets: Public spaces and streets must be seen as multifunctional areas for social interaction, economic exchange and cultural expression among a wide diversity of participants. It is for planning to organize for those public spaces, and for design to encourage their use, in the process enhancing a sense of identity and belonging. Safety and security are important dimensions to be considered in any such design, together with vital underground infrastructure (water, energy and communications).

advances along the five dimensions of prosperity are either accelerated or impeded by existing bodies of laws and regulations, the strength of enforcement, as well as by the configuration, capacity and flexibility of the institutions responsible for steering urban development. In recent years, there has been a resurgence of policy reviews and scholarly studies striving to address the normative and organizational underpinnings of urban change. To paraphrase Amartya Sen’s dictum about nations and democracy, a city does not need to be deemed fit for a prosperity-oriented legal and institutional system; rather, it must become fit through such a system – which, again, is needed now, and for the city as a whole.47 At a time when so many crisis-struck nations find that a fresh start on the path of prosperity depends more than ever on cities, these must mobilise their potential to the full.48 More than ever, cities need empowering, not forbidding legal and institutional systems for their prosperity. Cities need such systems now − and they are at hand’s reach, if only public authorities found the political will (as this chapter will show, some do). The universal demand for justice, fairness and legitimacy transcends cultural barriers. Therefore, it can be met in a variety of ways through a variety of frameworks, as determined by local urban power functions. These form the hub that drives the ‘wheel of urban prosperity’, supplying the laws and regulations that support and shape the five ‘spokes’, adjusting them over time as conditions, needs and fresh risks may require. However, in all parts of the world, law and institutions have always been shaped by the complex interactions of sociocultural factors, with new forces constantly bringing their own influences to bear.49 Business, academia, civil society – non-governmental and grassroots organisations, trade unions and professional associations, political parties, etc. − are all the Promoting legitimate expressions of prosperity the various forms which involves deployment of a city’s specific potential proper laws, regulations can take; and the needs to and institutions which these stakeholders which have a direct or indirect bearing on give ‘voice’ relate to the equity, productivity, preservation and further infrastructures and living development of their standards, and which respective potentials. extend across the length Urban power and breadth of the functions – governance, whole jurisdiction of the relevant urban authority. urban planning, legal and

Empowering Laws and Institutions for Urban Prosperity

policy

The success of some of the cities as highlighted in this Report is based on specific combinations of laws, regulations, institutions and processes. In almost all cases,

fact

As the proximate reflection of society’s values, and as an emanation of political and social relations, laws and institutions serve as the most powerful instrument available to shape urban development.

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Table 3.2.1 Urban Planning/Design & Prosperity Prosperity Dimensions

Urban Planning

Commons/Goods/ Sustainable Solutions

Productivity

Harness the benefits of agglomeration economies

Commons

Improve access to productive advantage (knowledge, quality of the environment, etc.)

Commons

Provide sufficient public space for circulation of goods and people and deploy adequate infrastructure. Provide efficient transport systems for people and goods

Public goods

Encourage polycentric urban development, allowing synergies between centres and sub-centres

Sustainable solutions

Promote mixed-land use to enhance economies of agglomeration and scale with better clustering Intensify urban nodes and corridors to maximize the benefits of concentration Infrastructure development

Provide clean infrastructure, closing ‘energy waste loops’ to preserve climate, air and water quality Improve connectivity.

Commons

Expand multimodal transport systems with sidewalks and bicycle infrastructure

Public goods

Provide social Infrastructure such as civic centres, libraries, sports facilities, etc.) Ensure eco-efficiency of infrastructural systems

Sustainable solutions

Support density through integrated infrastructure development, enhancing efficiency and access Quality of life

Enhance identity and culture through symbolic spaces and heritage preservation

Commons

Improve safety and security Support place-making through urban design Ensure high quality of public spaces that engage interaction among communities

Public goods

Promote a system of green spaces

Equity and social inclusion

Enhance the role of the street as a multi-functional urban space and integrate natural spaces and recreational areas

Sustainable solutions

Enhance freedom of movement

Commons

Provide well–located, adequate public infrastructure and amenities (incl. education, health, recreation, etc.)

Public Goods

Create mixed neighbourhoods with the diversity of jobs and housing options. Plan infill development and guided expansions

Sustainable solutions

Promote mixed-used land development, ensuring involvement from marginalised groups. Improve connectivity between neighborhoods and access to services. Turn land and development thereof into a revenue source. Environmental sustainability

Ensure clean air, unpolluted water and preservation of biodiversity. Act on climate change adaptation/mitigation

Commons

Maximize the natural benefits of the site (sunlight, water bodies, winds, etc.) Plan for restoration of ecosystems Enhance public parks, waterfront and ‘green’ areas for recreational and productive purposes

Public goods

Use “passive urban design” to reduce carbon emissions

Sustainable solutions

Plan for urban density to reduce energy consumption and settlements footprint Reduce fragmentation of natural systems; reduce spatial footprint through careful design of infrastructure networks and settlements.

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regulatory frameworks and strong institutions – form the ‘hub’ that controls the ‘wheel of urban prosperity’ and give it direction, pace and momentum (see Chapter 1.1). Shared prosperity requires the predominance of the public interest as embodied in public authorities50 to The crucial ensure that none of the five role of public ‘spokes’ gain prevalence to authorities is to harness the the detriment of the others. various types of societal powers and potentials Abstract values and norms through appropriate urban are institutions because power functions. they guide individual and collective action.51 Box 3.2.2 shows how, in China and in Europe centuries ago, the State imposed the prevalence of the public over other interests and needs, treating them all equitably for the sake of shared prosperity. The powers and functions that are part of the governance structure of a city may derive from promulgated city charters, local government frameworks, or directly from the national Constitution. The rights and responsibilities granted to individuals and firms in cities are all dictated by prevailing legal frameworks. Similarly, the interactions among urban residents as well as the modalities of production, distribution and consumption of urban space have always been regulated by explicit and implicit codes of behaviour and practice. The transformative potential of any city has, therefore, always been a function of the enabling scope of its laws, regulations and institutions. The degree to which such instruments can be deployed as they are, or consolidated, or even reformed will determine a city’s degree of prosperity. In the metaphor of the ‘Prosperity Wheel’, the legal and institutional framework as a whole acts as the ‘hub’ which steers the development of the five dimensions (‘spokes’) of prosperity, Laws and the modulating momentum, associated relaying its energy to the institutional set-up other dimensions, and have determined the maintaining the overall very genesis of the balance of the ‘wheel’. modern city, both in its Internal dysfunctions in essence as well as its functionality. the legal and institutional

framework, or any disconnect between the hub and the spokes, interferes with the operation of the ‘wheel’ and makes any existing momentum unsustainable (such as based on only one of the five dimensions).

fact

In the cities of the world today, the power to be mobilised against the crisis emanates from a variety of stakeholders, not just public authorities, although these retain a decisive role.

The Legal-Institutional Basis of the 20th-Century City Advances in industrial development, consolidation of the market economy and the permeating influence of liberal democracy (both in its origin in the West and the postcolonial variant in the developing world) have created a shared legal and regulatory foundation in much of the urban world. The legal, regulatory and institutional fundamentals of the contemporary city tend to be identical, differing only in levels of development, institutional characteristics and performance ability. Indeed, the legal-institutional basis of the 20th-century city is fairly uniform; and this explains the similarities not only in functional modalities but also in the all-too visible imbalances characterizing the 20th-century city in its generic sense (i.e., spatial segregation, social exclusion, a predominance of motorised mobility, high

policy

fact

Karnataka, Bangalore, India: A road sign hangs over the entrance to ‘Electronics City’, an industrial complex dedicated to the IT and electronics industries. Located ten miles (16km) outside Bangalore, the complex has been hugely successful in attracting foreign investment. © Chris Stowers/Panos Pictures

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Innovating to Support the Transition to the City of the 21st Century

Box 3.2.3

fact

Although the 20th-century city tends to exhibit fair degrees of vibrancy and dynamism, whatever attendant prosperity it experiences is often skewed and unsustainable – and therefore ridden with perennial crises.

Individual versus collective interests The legal foundation of the 20th-century city lies in the ancient tenets of Roman Law and the Napoleonic Code, together with the subsequent elaboration into modern civil and common law. The gist of this legal corpus is the preeminence of the individual, who is considered as possessed of inherent rights as represented in the 18th century French Revolution’s Declaration of the Rights of Man and the Citizen. Within this individualistic legal tradition, property rights reign supreme, with the emphasis on the rights of owners to the detriment of their social implications and other, broader, collective interests, including duties and responsibilities. With particular regard to urban settings, ‘land and property are conceived largely as commodities whose economic value is determined by the owners’ interests.’52 In this system, the role of the State at all levels is relegated to harmonizing and mediating these interests, and to oversee those assets and facilities that require collective use.

developing country. The Statute also “broke with the long-standing tradition of civil law and set the basis of a new legal-political paradigm for urban land use and development control.”53 A prominent scholar highlights four dimensions of Brazil’s 2001 City Statute: “A conceptual one, providing elements for the interpretation of the constitutional principle of the social functions of urban property and of the city; the regulation of new instruments for the construction of a different urban order by the municipalities; the indication of processes for the democratic management of cities; and the identification of legal instruments for the comprehensive regularisation of informal settlements in private and public urban areas.”54 This new urban legal order has had highly visible effects. As a nation and at macro-economic level, Brazil is among a handful of countries in the world that has been able to achieve remarkable growth rates for much of the early years of this century, despite the global economic turbulence. More significantly, Brazilian cities have been able to expand the middle class segments of their populations and to improve economic and living conditions for substantial numbers of poor residents. Although still very high, cities are reducing income inequalities, as measured by the Gini coefficient, which decreased from 0.606 in 1990 to 0.569 in 2009.55

energy consumption and poor regard for the potential for agglomeration economies.

Towards a New Legal-Urban Order for Holistic Prosperity During the last two decades, the pitfalls of the conventional urban development model have become more glaring. As shown in the previous section (Urban Prosperity through Planning and Design) the potential of cities has not been fully harnessed, a more common trend has developed where urban development tends to be spatially fragmented and the benefits of prosperity remains socially segmented. In contrast, over the past two decades some Brazilian cities have taken to re-examining the prevailing urban legal order, with bold practical schemes inspired by a set of alternative, radical urban doctrines and jurisprudence which depart from the classical liberal legalism exalting individualism and private property. After a long period of consultations and negotiations, a nationwide City Statute was adopted those few cities featuring in 2001 enshrining a Right balanced and to the City. The Statute sustainable prosperity makes an important have effectively contribution to urban deployed adequate law, facilitating shared laws, regulations and prosperity, particularly institutions in support of their transformation. in the context of a

Revitalized ‘Rights to the Commons’ and Expansion of the Public Realm ‘Commons’ reinforce the social function of property and that of the city as a whole, while recognizing the dynamism of private assets. Laws, regulations and institutions as factors of restraint, opportunity and action, act as the levers that can optimize the social function of property and Shared urban balance it out with private prosperity rights and assets. It must is about enhancing the be stressed here that this public realm, equitable social function is not about sharing of public goods and ownership rights or their consolidating rights to the commons for all. transactional implications. Rather, it is essentially

fact

policy

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State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

about user rights for enhanced human value. The ‘Right to the Commons’ is an ancient concept in legal jurisprudence originating in feudal England, where it referred to the extension of user rights for all on a manor’s grazing land. Lately, the notion has resurfaced in urban settings (including public goods, societal institutional arrangements, public culture, and heritage sites), The capacity for where it is perceived as an a city to maintain effective way of countering extensive and quality shared spaces and facilities not just rampant enclosures provides a good indication and appropriations, but of its degree of prosperity. also the rise of duality under the form of inequity and segregation. In this respect, cities such as Helsinki, Toronto and Barcelona, which achieve high rankings on the UNHabitat City Prosperity Index (CPI), feature more extensive public realms than Monrovia, Nairobi or Dakar, or similar cities with low CPI readings. Legal and regulatory instruments exert a major bearing on the origination and preservation of the commons, and also in ensuring indiscriminate access. Statutes, ordinances and regulations are the bases for the guidelines and standards regulating spatial layouts and construction designs. The same applies to institutional relationships, functional allocations and authority designation, besides In this era of resource distribution. The enclosures, legal framework in turn privatization and even enables civic organisations invasion of the traditional urban commons (including and community activities. beaches, river banks, Equally significant is the forests, school yards and overall manner in which even pavements), the size legal-regulatory and and quality of a city’s overall institutional frameworks public space acts as a delineate the public and good indicator of shared prosperity. private spheres and guide the interaction between

and within them in the everyday workings of the city. One component of the commons that lately has attracted a lot of attention is the management of public spaces.56 In Panama City, one of the local experts surveyed by UN-Habitat put it as follows: “The more degraded public space, the more degraded the citizen, because public space is not only about quality of life but also the expression of citizenship”.57 Another local expert, in Santo Domingo, underscored the same point perhaps more incisively: “Citizens need to gain positive empowerment, to defend space enclaves where public life is still alive and where laws and norms for doing so are available.”58

policy

As cities work on the five dimensions of prosperity, there also occurs a progressive expansion in the size of the commons. More amenities are brought into collective use and more access is provided, enabling larger numbers of urban residents to use and enjoy shared spaces, services and facilities.

Revisiting Urban Codes for shared Prosperity Rules and regulations constitute a key instrument in urban management and development. That is why appropriate institutions are required to ensure implementation and enforcement as well as awareness building and mobilization. Rules and regulations have significant roles to play, as they generally steer and circumscribe planning and construction. One author has even gone so far as to ascribe the ‘shaping and misshaping of American cities’ to poor planning regulations.59 Indeed, zoning regulations, building codes, utility standards, deed restrictions and the many other instruments that shape the urban built environment, will determine not only the pattern, use and form of spaces and structures, but will also strongly influence the quality of life in cities. The review of regulatory frameworks is of particular importance for those cities in the developing world that have long operated with externally derived standards and codes, who, must Laws, also tend to effective rules and institutions must implementation and be kept alert, not enforcement capacities. inert, to current and Revisiting the codes evolving needs and developed for formerly risks if a city’s whole colonial or apartheid cities human potential is like Nairobi, Dar es Salaam to be harnessed, not repressed – or Johannesburg in a bid empowering the whole to achieve an inclusive population with “basic urban form is a challenging capabilities” or “generic endeavour. This calls not conditions of agency” only major for institutional at the service of restructuring, but also a today’s and tomorrow’s prosperity. revision of zoning and

fact

policy

fact

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Innovating to Support the Transition to the City of the 21st Century

building codes to support urban reforms, not to mention squatter regulation and slum upgrading. On top of that, cities today must provide accommodative measures, allowing for progressive construction, smaller plot sizes and multiple variants of land tenure. Similarly, utility standards must be adjusted, and new development financing channels devised, in the face of inequity and exclusion.

fact

As some cities have found out, shared prosperity involves a serious review of regulatory frameworks.

policy

As some cities have come to realise, shared and integrated prosperity is a socio-political project, involving a commitment by all stakeholders and entailing a re-examination of laws, regulations, and the corresponding institutional framework.

Institutional Transformation Some of the real-life experiences outlined in this chapter suggest that when it comes to structuring the urban power functions that form the hub of the ‘prosperity wheel’, it is for every city to make its own choices. Indeed, many choices have already been made; but common to all is the adaptation and consolidation of key institutions which harness the energy and engagement of all stakeholders in a city. Major stakeholders, such as business, professionals, civic organisations, besides neighbourhood associations, must be provided with an institutional avenue for effective engagement with urban prosperity – how it is generated and how it is shared. Such engagement transcends the traditional participatory practices of forums and consultative

mechanisms; it turns socioeconomic conditions into levers of enhanced prosperity, with every household and business considered as an asset to be safeguarded, optimized and promoted – empowered – for the benefit of all An exemplary case of institutional innovation for shared prosperity is that of Medellín. During the past decade, the Colombian city’s prosperity has experienced major turnaround, as it endeavoured to overcome the combined challenges of poverty, inequality, exclusion and informality, besides rampant violence, through a whole new social

Box 3.2.4 Law, institutions and the public interest As the state evolved into “the geometric focal point of all perspectives” and a principle of public order, it established a unified space – imposing spatial over social, genealogical or other types of proximity. In the process, public authority has gained more recognition from the various segments of society, which further consolidates both its privileged position and its efficiency. As a result, the notion of “public interest” can pave the way for consensus and mobilization; at any rate, it sheds light on reality and becomes a shared evaluation criterion.

Urban space is shaped by laws, rules and institutions (or lack thereof) in response to the needs and requirements of varying numbers of stakeholders. In this sense, the prosperity of a city is also a legal and institutional construct, and the past has some lessons for early 21st century central and municipal governments. Major legal systems around the world have long recognised that far from being just an abstract norm, law and institutions have the capacity to shape up a variety of interests across ethnic, cultural and other divides. They do so within the spatial confines of their jurisdictions, and with a long-term view.61

Historically, in China as in Europe, the city has served as the privileged locus of the emergence of the state and the public interest as we know them today. In 11th century Western Europe63, it fell to municipal authorities to control violence as well as economic and political relations. Although the poor were effectively left out of some functions, they were equal members of the assemblies in charge of endorsing municipal officials and laws (including those on economic activities). Moreover, purchase, sale and mortgaging of land and buildings were open to all. At the time, the protections and safeguards provided by cities also aimed at preserving their prosperity from heavy-handed monarchs or emperors.

This is the background against which the state has historically emerged as the apex body of an interdependent network of powerful repositories of different kinds of power – legal, religious, bureaucratic, economic, etc.62 In this role, the state has gradually built a monopoly over universality. This went hand in hand with the constitution of bureaucratic functions independent of particular interests – family, religion, the economy – with agents that were mandated to embody the public interest. Along with this came the constitution of a new, “public” kind of resources that embodied universality, or at any rate a degree of universality that was superior to that of previously existing resources. This public realm gradually stood out against particular interests, and also against private appropriation of public functions through patronage or nepotism.

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State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

dispensation. Conditions have been put in place for civic mobilisation, bringing together politicians, the private sector, professionals and communities, with the aim of building a future that benefits everyone. The collective energy behind this compact reconstructs the foundations of shared prosperity in all socioeconomic spheres. In Helsinki, the Helsinki, a city that enabling potential features prominently in the of legal and regulatory UN-Habitat City Prosperity instruments is used to build Index, has invested in a dynamic institutional framework which enhances human capital, promoted shared prosperity. innovation and developed strong institutions, using a multi-prong approach to enhanced prosperity.60 Shared and Legal and institutional integrated transformation for the prosperity in cities is sake of prosperity is not about the reclaiming of a sense of community and confined to the cities of the sustainability through urban developed world. Despite power functions. the formidable challenges facing them, a number of Asian and African cities are taking significant steps, with some already achieving visibly higher degrees of prosperity. Cities such as Bangalore and Hyderabad, South Africa’s Gauteng urban region, Nairobi, Dakar and Dar es Salaam are all engaged in the pursuit of shared, sustainable prosperity through effective legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks. Bangalore clearly demonstrates the challenges of higher prosperity path against a developing country background; but the city benefits from strong institutional synergies, with investment

by national, state and local government, including Greater Bangalore authority. The private-public partnership model seems to be the driving factor behind the city’s enhanced prosperity, together with a well-adapted regulatory framework for Information Technology Parks, an attractive environment for highly skilled labour, and facilitating the establishment of training and research institutions.

policy

Shared prosperity is not accidental, nor is it an automatic outcome of economic growth or market forces. It is a human, collective construct which requires vision, leadership and a coherent programme of action.

fact

policy

A pedestrian footbridge at night in the modern city of Shenzhen, China. © Fuyu Liu/Shutterstock.com

Endnotes 1 2

Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, B. and P.G. Sampath (2010) Latecomer Development: Innovation and Knowledge for Economic Growth, Routledge, London and New York.

Landry, C. (2000) The Creative City, Earthscan, London.

Ibid.

Kratke, S. (2011) The Creative Capital of Cities: Interactive Knowledge Creation and The Urbanization Economies of Innovation, Wiley-Blackwell ,Chichester

Landry, C. (2000) op. cit.

‘Urbanization economies’ refer to the advantages gained from a specific urban location: proximity to markets, available labour force, communications, and auxiliary business services.

Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, B. and P.G. Sampath (2010) op. cit.

Kratke, S. (2011) op. cit.

Landry, C. (2000) The Creative City, Earthscan, London.

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Innovating to Support the Transition to the City of the 21st Century

10 Government of Singapore (2010) Singapore Budget 2010 - Towards an Advanced Economy: Superior Skills, Quality Jobs, Higher Incomes, http://www.mof.gov.sg/ budget_2010/speech_toc/pd.html.

37 Buhigas, M. (2012), Efficient Urban Planning and Management, background paper for ‘State of the World Cities Report 2012/13’ 38 Castellanos, G. (2011) City Report on Santo Domingo. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

11 Centre for Livable Cities (2011) City Report on Singapore, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

39 A highest percentage of respondents in all regions found that planning and management is the most important factor, while the majority of respondents in LAC opined that decentralization of policies and appropriate laws and regulation plays a more important role.

12 Belliapa, S.G. (2011) City Report on Bangalore, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013” 13 Vejella, S. (2011) City Report on Hyderabad, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

40 ONU-HÁBITAT (2012) El estado de las ciudades de América Latina y el Caribe 2012, ONU-HÁBITAT ,Rio de Janeiro (to be published)

14 Jin, L. and Y. Liu (2011) City Report on Shenzhen, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

41 Earth Right Institute (2011), Land Rights and Land Value Capture, http://www. earthrights.net/docs/long_form_brochure_lrlvc.html; UN-Habitat (2008), Municipal financing and urban development, UN-Habitat , Nairobi

15 The city’s GDP rose from 136.024 billion Yuan in 1997 to 789.424 billion Yuan in 2010. Even during the serious financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Chongqing maintained a high growth rate of GDP of 14% [ Liu, Y. and Y. Wang (2011) City Report on Chongqing, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”]

42 Mendoza, I. R. (2011) City Report on Panama City, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

16 Kurtul,P. F. (2011) City Report on Gaziantep, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

43 The notion of fixed social capital, which encompasses all assets of society that are not mobile (or soft) but are solid and owned by the public is equivalent to the ‘public goods’ mentioned in this chapter.

17 World Bank (2012) World Bank Data:World Development Indicators & Global Development Finance, Online database last updated July 9 2012, http://data. worldbank.org

44 UNIDO (2008) Public Goods for Economic Development, UNIDO, Vienna, http://www. unido.org/fileadmin/user_media/Publications/documents/Public%20goods%20 for%20economic%20development_sale.pdf

18 SET-DEV (2011) Technological Responsibility:Guidelines for a shared governance of the processes of socialisation of scientific research and innovation, within an interconnected world, http://www.set-dev.eu/images/pdf/setdev-pg2110728?e6227e 3a1ee01ab67932453dd186b586=fe92758461b428418da8873e8a9fc566

45 The CLEAR Network (2006), Urban Planning and Smart Growth, http://www.clear. london.ca/Urban_Planning.html 46 Kimmelman, M. (2012), ‘A City Rises, Along With Its Hopes’, New York Times, May 18, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/20/arts/design/fighting-crime-with-architecturein-medellin-colombia.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all.

19 Ibid. 20 Jin, L. and Y. Liu (2011) op. cit.

47 Sen, A. K., (1999) ‘Democracy as a universal Value’, Journal of Democracy , vol 10 (3), Washington, DC, pp. 3-17

21 In ten years of reform and development, the total assets of state-owned enterprises increased from 160 billion Yuan to one trillion Yuan, nearly seven-fold increase [Liu, Y. and Y. Wang (2011) op. cit.] UN-Habitat (2010) State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011 : Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide, Earthscan, London

48 ‘Cities have always been exposed to brutal economic pressures from overseas; the nation state has always, to a greater or smaller extent, tried to cushion these pressures.’ [Pierre, J. (2011) The Politics of Urban Governance Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke]

23 UN-Habitat (2010) ‘Scaling New Heights: New Ideas in Urban Planning’, Urban World, Vol. 1, Issue, 4, October. Nairobi.

49 Menski, W. (2006) Comparative Law in a Global Context: The Legal Systems of Asia and Africa, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

24 James, P.A., K. Deiglmeier and D. T. Miller (2008) ‘Rediscovering Social Innovations’, Stanford Social Innovation Review, http://www.ssireview.org/articles/entry/ rediscovering_social_innovation/

50 ‘It could well be argued that the growing significance of non-elected actors in urban politics in many countries only increases the need for political control and accountability.’ [Pierre, J. (2011) op.cit.]

25 Castells, M. (1996) The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture – Volume 1 – The Rise of the Network Society, Blackwell, Oxford

51 Pierre, J. (2011) op.cit.

52 Fernandes, E. and M.M.M. Copello (2009) ‘Law and Land Policy in Latin America: Shifting Paradigms and Possibilities for Action’, Land Lines, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge, MA

26 James, P.A., K. Deiglmeier and D. T. Miller (2008) op. cit. 27 Soja, E. W. (2010), Seeking Spatial Justice, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis

53 Fernandes, E. (2007a)’ Implementing the urban reform agenda in Brazil’, Environment & Urbanization Vol 19(1), pp. 177–189

28 Cohen, M.(2012), Reinventing the Future: Designing Urban 3.0, unpublished proposal for UN-Habitat Habitat 3 Summit.

54 Fernandes, E. (2007b) “Constructing the `Right to the City’ in Brazil”, Social & Legal Studies, Vol. 16(2), pp. 201-219;

29 Clos, J. (2012) Urbanization Challenges of the 21st Century, Unpublished document, UN-Habitat, Nairobi

UN-Habitat database (2012).

56 See, for instance, Gehl, J. (2010) Cities for People, Island Press, Washington DC.

30 Belliapa, S.G. (2011) City Report on Bangalore. Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

57 Mendoza, I. R. (2011) City Report on Panama City, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

31 Flyvbjerg, B. (1996) ‘The Dark Side of Planning: Rationality and Realrationalität,’ in Seymour, M., Mazza ,L., and R. Burchell (eds.), Explorations in Planning Theory , Center for Urban Policy Research Press, New Brunswick, NJ. pp. 383-394.

58 Castellanos, G. (2011) City Report on Santo Domingo, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

32 Viana, I. (2011) City Report on Montevideo, Unpublished UN-Habitat background study for “State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013”

59 Talen, E. (2012) City Rules: How Regulations Affect Urban Form, Island Press, Washington DC.

33 López, E. M. (2011), New Urban Planning: Going Back to Basics, Unpublished document, UN-Habitat, Nairobi

60 Karvinen, M. (2005) Innovation and creativity strategies in Helsinki Metropolitan Area – reinvention of regional governance, proceedings of the 41st ISoCaRP Congress 2005, Bilbao, Spain

34 Kothari, M. and S. Chaudhry (2009), Taking the right to the city forward: Obstacles and promise, background paper for ‘State of the World Cities Report 2010/11’

61 Berman, Harold. J. (1983) Law and Revolution: The formation of the Western Legal Tradition, vol. 1, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; Menski (2006) op.cit.

35 Briney, A. (2009) New Urbanism is Taking Planning to a New Level, http://geography. about.com/od/urbaneconomicgeography/a/newurbanism.htm

62 Bourdieu, P. (2012) Sur l’Etat – Cours au Collège de France 1989-1992, Raisons d’Agir/Seuil, Paris

36 Clos, J. (2012) op.cit. This ‘global standardization process’ is also referred by professionals like David Mangin (Mangin, D. (2004) La Ville franchisée: Formes et structures de la ville contemporaine, Editions de la Villette, Paris

63 Berman (1983) op. cit.; Sassen, S. (2006) Territory, Authority, Rights: From Medieval to Global Assemblages, Princeton University Press, Princeton

121

Statistical Annex

GENERAL DISCLAIMER The designations employed and presentation of the data in the Statistical Annex do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Table 1: City Prosperity Index and components Table 2: Proportion of urban population living in slums and urban slum population, by country 1990-2009 Table 3: U rban population, proportion of urban population living in slum area and urban slum population, by region, 1990-2012 Table 4: C ity population and city population growth rate of urban agglomerations with 750,000 Inhabitants or More in 2009, by Country, 1950-2025 (thousands) Table 5: Urban Population and Urbanization by Country, 1990-2030

Table 1 City Prosperity Index and components City Prosperity Index (CPI) with 5 Dimensions

City Prosperity Index (CPI) with 4 Dimensions*

Productivity Index

Quality of life Index

Infrastructure Enivronment Index Index

Equity Index

Country

City

Austria

Vienna

0.925

0.936

0.939

0.882

0.996

0.932

0.883

United States

New York

0.825

0.934

0.940

0.866

0.994

0.941

0.502

Canada

Toronto

0.890

0.934

0.874

0.907

0.997

0.963

0.733

United Kingdom

London

0.904

0.934

0.923

0.898

0.997

0.920

0.793

Sweden

Stockholm

0.898

0.934

0.896

0.925

0.995

0.921

0.767

Finland

Helsinki

0.924

0.933

0.890

0.905

0.997

0.944

0.890

Ireland

Dublin

0.913

0.929

0.901

0.867

0.996

0.958

0.850

Norway

Oslo

0.924

0.929

0.870

0.914

0.997

0.939

0.903

France

Paris

0.897

0.927

0.895

0.925

0.996

0.895

0.788

Japan

Tokyo

0.905

0.925

0.850

0.931

0.989

0.936

0.828

Australia

Melbourne

0.903

0.925

0.867

0.875

0.996

0.967

0.820

New Zealand

Auckland

0.862

0.922

0.854

0.889

0.994

0.958

0.657

Netherlands

Amsterdam

0.895

0.915

0.866

0.872

0.995

0.933

0.818

Switzerland

Zurich

0.884

0.914

0.868

0.858

0.997

0.941

0.772

Denmark

Copenhagen

0.913

0.911

0.855

0.871

0.997

0.928

0.922

Belgium

Brussels

0.883

0.910

0.862

0.864

0.997

0.922

0.783

Spain

Barcelona

0.876

0.909

0.829

0.912

0.995

0.908

0.755

Italy

Milan

0.870

0.908

0.868

0.895

0.997

0.876

0.733

Poland

Warsaw

0.883

0.901

0.846

0.864

0.990

0.911

0.817

Portugal

Lisbon

0.853

0.899

0.827

0.867

0.995

0.916

0.692

Hungary

Budapest

0.881

0.894

0.808

0.867

0.990

0.921

0.833

Greece

Athens

0.862

0.889

0.800

0.885

0.996

0.884

0.762

Czech Republic

Prague

0.871

0.882

0.855

0.771

0.992

0.926

0.827

Republic of Korea

Seoul

0.861

0.876

0.801

0.903

0.989

0.822

0.807

Russia

Moscow

0.793

0.870

0.806

0.813

0.960

0.908

0.550

Brazil

S達o Paulo

0.757

0.836

0.742

0.803

0.918

0.894

0.507

122

Statistical Annex

Table 1 City Prosperity Index and components City Prosperity Index (CPI) with 5 Dimensions

City Prosperity Index (CPI) with 4 Dimensions*

Productivity Index

Quality of life Index

Infrastructure Enivronment Index Index

Equity Index

Country

City

Kazakhstan

Almaty

0.830

0.833

0.751

0.822

0.872

0.897

0.818

China

Shanghai

0.826

0.832

0.671

0.836

0.900

0.950

0.800

Romania

Bucharest

0.836

0.821

0.707

0.767

0.968

0.867

0.900

Mexico

Mexico City

0.709

0.816

0.743

0.764

0.900

0.866

0.405

Turkey

Ankara

0.780

0.806

0.699

0.802

0.842

0.891

0.683

Jordan

Amman

0.771

0.796

0.697

0.790

0.887

0.824

0.680

Thailand

Bangkok

0.733

0.794

0.719

0.747

0.871

0.850

0.533

Ukraine

Kyïv

0.798

0.781

0.579

0.757

0.968

0.874

0.873

Viet Nam

Hà Noi

0.756

0.776

0.712

0.761

0.912

0.733

0.683

Armenia

Yerevan

0.779

0.769

0.635

0.850

0.870

0.745

0.817

China

Beijing

0.799

0.762

0.667

0.836

0.911

0.663

0.967

South Africa

Cape Town

0.590

0.758

0.628

0.645

0.933

0.875

0.217

Indonesia

Jakarta

0.769

0.743

0.636

0.733

0.741

0.881

0.885

South Africa

Johannesburg

0.479

0.742

0.654

0.645

0.880

0.816

0.083

Philippines

Manila

0.723

0.737

0.676

0.647

0.775

0.868

0.669

Egypt

Cairo

0.722

0.730

0.679

0.743

0.916

0.616

0.692

Morocco

Casablanca

0.647

0.700

0.634

0.513

0.827

0.891

0.472

Honduras

Tegucigalapa

0.652

0.694

0.541

0.729

0.709

0.829

0.510

Moldova

Chisinau

0.698

0.693

0.340

0.850

0.895

0.894

0.717

India

Mumbai

0.694

0.688

0.645

0.739

0.745

0.632

0.715

Kenya

Nairobi

0.593

0.673

0.481

0.559

0.860

0.889

0.357

Cambodia

Phnom Penh

0.677

0.666

0.544

0.613

0.728

0.809

0.722

Mongolia

Ulaanbaatar

0.675

0.664

0.493

0.777

0.632

0.804

0.722

Guatemala

Guatemala City

0.614

0.646

0.440

0.556

0.823

0.866

0.502

Cameroon

Yaoundé

0.618

0.623

0.492

0.555

0.666

0.827

0.600

India

New Delhi

0.635

0.617

0.596

0.690

0.786

0.448

0.712

Côte d’Ivoire

Abidjan

0.578

0.599

0.452

0.440

0.767

0.842

0.500

Nepal

Kathmundu

0.598

0.594

0.385

0.621

0.740

0.704

0.617

Bangladesh

Dhaka

0.633

0.593

0.545

0.539

0.673

0.627

0.817

Uganda

Kampala

0.581

0.590

0.512

0.486

0.507

0.956

0.550

Nigeria

Lagos

0.496

0.582

0.475

0.634

0.576

0.659

0.262

Ghana

Accra

0.560

0.576

0.347

0.592

0.737

0.728

0.500

Bolivia

La Paz

0.551

0.565

0.363

0.621

0.745

0.606

0.502

Ethiopia

Addis Ababa

0.501

0.564

0.503

0.534

0.521

0.724

0.313

Senegal

Dakar

0.581

0.552

0.510

0.384

0.794

0.596

0.712

Zimbabwe

Harare

0.493

0.542

0.246

0.451

0.899

0.864

0.338

United Republic of Tanzania

Dar es Salaam

0.571

0.530

0.427

0.371

0.607

0.822

0.767

Zambia

Lusaka

0.434

0.507

0.316

0.463

0.590

0.766

0.233

Niger

Niamey

0.482

0.456

0.402

0.426

0.485

0.521

0.602

Mali

Bamako

0.491

0.452

0.401

0.416

0.544

0.460

0.683

Madagascar

Antananarivo

0.465

0.446

0.171

0.558

0.511

0.812

0.552

Guinea

Conakry

0.449

0.416

0.133

0.461

0.607

0.809

0.612

Liberia

Monrovia

0.313

0.285

0.048

0.381

0.411

0.886

0.457

* The CPI with 4 dimensions does not include the equity index Source: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), Global Urban Indicators Database 2012.

123

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Table 2 Proportion of urban population living in slums and urban slum population, by country 1990-2009

Major area, region, country or area

Proprotion of urban population living in slum areaa 1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

2009

86.5

76.2

65.8

Benin

79.3

76.8

74.3

71.8

70.8

69.8

Burkina Faso

78.8

72.4

65.9

Urban Slum Population at Mid-Year by Major Area, Region and Country (thousands) 1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

2009

Africa Angola

Burundi

59.5

64.3

7,756

7,466

7,019

1,311

1,616

1,897

2,260

2,423

2,595

960

1,109

1,374

1,762

2,029

452

508

Cameroon

50.8

49.6

48.4

47.4

46.6

46.1

2,532

3,160

3,826

4,585

4,870

5,188

Central African Republic

87.5

89.7

91.9

94.1

95.0

95.9

943

1,113

1,296

1,470

1,551

1,642

89.3

1,257

1,507

1,844

2,312

2,509

2,714

101

119

124

1,098

1,119

1,134

2,674

3,366

4,158

5,066

5,496

5,979

14,491

14,375

14,079

5,677

5,903

6,143

10,067

10,427

Chad

98.9

96.4

93.9

91.3

90.3

Comoros

65.4

68.9

53.4

51.7

49.9

53.4

54.3

55.3

56.2

56.6

57.0

76.4

69.1

61.7

17.1

Congo Côte d’Ivoire Democratic Republic of the Congo Egypt

50.2

39.2

28.1

Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia

95.5

88.6

Gabon

10,704

8,447

81.8

157 79.1

76.4

5,819

7,562

8,653

38.7

Gambia Ghana

65.5

58.8

52.1

Guinea

80.4

68.8

57.3

Guinea-Bissau Kenya

12,607

66.3

443

45.4

34.8

45.4

42.8

45.7

40.1

373

313

3,571

4,070

4,473

4,755

4,817

1,385

1,517

1,490

1,390

1,489

83.1 54.9

54.8

Lesotho

9,729

4,848

362

54.8

54.7

35.1

44.4

53.7

Liberia

2,343

2,859

3,400

4,069

4,396

163

223

68.3

4,762 290 1,282

Madagascar

93.0

88.6

84.1

80.6

78.0

76.2

2,470

2,997

3,486

4,046

4,225

4,460

Malawi

66.4

67.7

68.9

725

893

1,192

1,572

1,786

2,027

Mali

94.2

84.8

75.4

65.9

1,902

2,066

2,247

2,496

2,743

3,009

Morocco

37.4

35.2

24.2

13.1

4,490

4,904

3,713

2,205

2,308

2,416

Mozambique

75.6

76.9

78.2

79.5

80.0

80.5

2,161

3,216

4,381

5,714

6,311

6,940

Namibia

34.4

34.1

33.9

33.6

33.5

135

165

200

239

254

272

Niger

83.6

83.1

82.6

82.1

81.9

81.7

1,016

1,219

1,475

1,787

1,944

2,121

Nigeria

77.3

73.5

69.6

65.8

64.2

62.7

26,549

31,538

36,951

42,783

45,195

47,612

Rwanda

96.0

87.9

79.7

71.6

68.3

65.1

372

397

874

1,129

1,165

1,208

Senegal

70.6

59.8

48.9

43.3

41.1

38.8

2,071

2,051

1,955

2,010

2,030

2,048

73.5

73.6

2,161

2,316

2,486

28.7

23.0

8,179

6,814

7,055

Sierra Leone

97.0

Somalia South Africa

46.2

39.7

33.2

Togo

1,824 8,834

8,950

8,475

62.1

1,486

Uganda

75.0

66.7

63.4

60.1

1,473

1,833

2,214

2,403

2,487

2,578

United Republic of Tanzania

77.4

73.7

70.1

66.4

65.0

63.5

3,719

4,539

5,335

6,271

6,713

7,200

Zambia

57.0

57.1

57.2

57.3

1,778

1,930

2,083

2,350

2,483

2,633

4.0

3.7

3.3

17.9

21.0

24.1

121

138

140

801

963

1,141

29.1

13,1670

151,437 169,102 183,544 182,934

180,560

Zimbabwe

Asia China

43.6

40.5

37.3

32.9

31.0

Mongolia

68.5

66.7

64.9

57.9

Bangladesh

87.3

84.7

77.8

70.8

66.2

124

61.6

866

860

882

878

915

19,999

23,535

25,819

27,831

27,770

27,542

Statistical Annex

Table 2 Proportion of urban population living in slums and urban slum population, by country 1990-2009

Major area, region, country or area

Proprotion of urban population living in slum areaa 1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

2009

Urban Slum Population at Mid-Year by Major Area, Region and Country (thousands) 1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

India

54.9

48.2

41.5

34.8

32.1

29.4

121,022

Nepal

70.6

67.3

64.0

60.7

59.4

58.1

1,194

1,585

2,100

2,630

2,850

3,075

Pakistan

51.0

49.8

48.7

47.5

47.0

46.6

18,054

20,688

23,890

27,158

28,529

29,965

22,456

23,255

17,972

18,134

18,302

5,539

5,841

6,146

Cambodia Indonesia

78.9 50.8

42.6

34.4

Lao Peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Democratic Republic

26.3

23.0

50.8

47.2

Thailand Viet Nam

60.5

54.6

48.8

29,017

29,691

Iraq

16.9

6,701

43.7

42.3

40.9

26.0

26.5

27.0

41.3

38.3

35.2

8,118

8,852

9,395

9,491

9,396

9,224

2,131

2,439

2,828

9,974

10,361

10,759

689

824

971

52.8

15.8

17.7

19.6

Lebanon

53.1

Saudi Arabia

18.0

Syrian Arab Republic

10.5 23.4

20.7

17.9

Yemen

24,777 1,277

Jordan

Turkey

27,559

45.6 54.3

104,679

2,052

79.3

Myanmar Philippines

122,231 119,698 112,913 109,102

2009

16,479

17,158

17,613

1,877 3,442 22.5

15.5

14.1

67.2

76.8

1,080 13.0

7,773

7,859

7,714

2,516

7,422

7,022

4,088

5,140

9,274

8,521

6,728

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina

30.5

31.7

32.9

26.2

Belize

23.5

20.8

8,622

9,772

10,953

18.7

7,737

Bolivia

62.2

58.2

54.3

50.4

48.8

47.3

2,305

2,590

2,794

2,972

3,030

3,080

Brazil

36.7

34.1

31.5

29.0

28.0

26.9

40,527

42,789

44,604

45,428

45,309

44,947

5,306

4,899

1,067

1,024

2,572

2,619

2,660

2,908

3,230

3,557

Chile Colombia

9.0 31.2

26.8

22.3

Costa Rica Dominican Republic

17.9

1,285 16.1

14.3

7,077

6,884

6,404

10.9 27.9

24.4

21.0

17.6

5,670 291

16.2

14.8

1,135

1,143

1,145

1,100

Ecuador

21.5

1,786

El Salvador

28.9

1,079

French Guiana

10.5

Grenada

6.0

Guadeloupe

5.4

Guatemala

58.6

53.3

48.1

Guyana Haiti

93.4

42.9

40.8

38.7

33.7

33.5

33.2

70.1

Honduras

34.9

Jamaica

60.5

2,146 1,893

2,301 2,393

2,438 2,876

1,170 840

Mexico

23.1

21.5

19.9

14.4

13,760

14,457

14,800

11,574

11,906

Nicaragua

89.1

74.5

60.0

45.5

1,929

1,860

1,676

1,388

1,437

Panama

23.0

Paraguay Peru Saint Lucia Suriname

526

17.6 66.4

56.3

46.2

36.1

608 36.1

11.9

9,964

9,566

8,776

7,540 5

3.9

Trinidad and Tobago

24.7

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

32.0

7,861

Notes: (a) Computed from country household data using the four components of slum (improved water, improwed sanitation, durable housing and sufficient living area. Source: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), Global Urban Indicators Database 2012.

125

7,801

State of the Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cities 2012/2013

Table 3 Urban population, proportion of urban population living in slum area and urban slum population, by region, 1990-2012 Urban Population at Mid-Year by Major Area, Region (thousands)a Major region or area

1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

2010

2012

1,406,473

1,658,909

1,930,248

2,228,145

2,341,589

2,514,583

2,634,197

58,552

66,491

73,996

82,209

85,843

91,590

95,602

Sub-Saharan Africa

146,640

181,532

220,535

266,848

287,548

321,300

345,564

Latin America and the Caribbean

311,042

352,267

393,420

432,646

447,430

468,757

482,496

Eastern Asia

352,808

429,924

512,043

619,535

652,715

699,813

731,647

Southern Asia

317,857

369,356

424,294

481,719

506,248

545,479

573,698

South-eastern Asia

138,996

165,445

197,360

220,814

230,851

246,701

257,677

79,005

92,146

106,691

122,294

128,796

138,654

145,126

1,572

1,748

1,908

2,080

2,158

2,289

2,387

Developing Regions Northern Africa

Western Asia Oceania

Proportion of urban population (per cent) Major region or area

1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

2010

2012

Developing Regions

34.5

37.2

39.9

42.7

43.7

45.0

45.9

Northern Africa

48.5

50.0

51.2

52.4

53.0

54.0

54.6

Sub-Saharan Africa

28.3

30.6

32.7

34.9

35.8

37.2

38.2

Latin America and the Caribbean

70.3

73.0

75.5

77.7

78.5

79.6

80.3

Eastern Asia

29.1

33.4

38.0

44.5

46.3

48.7

50.3

Southern Asia

26.5

27.7

29.0

30.2

30.8

31.7

32.4

South-eastern Asia

31.6

34.5

38.2

39.9

40.6

41.8

42.7

Western Asia

60.5

62.1

63.7

65.2

65.7

66.6

67.1

Oceaniac

24.4

24.1

23.5

23.0

22.9

22.8

22.9

Notes: (a) United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division - World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision (b) Population living in household that lack either improved water, improved sanitation, sufficient living area (more than three persons per room), or durable housing (c) Trends data are not available for Oceania. A constant figure does not mean there is no change Source: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), Global Urban Indicators Database 2012.

126

Statistical Annex

Urban Slum Population at Mid-Year by Region (thousands)b Major region or area

1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

2010

2012

650,444

711,832

759,915

793,723

803,280

819,969

862,569

20,126

18,798

15,054

10,984

11,463

12,226

12,762

Sub-Saharan Africa

102,641

122,635

143,255

168,005

179,538

198,168

213,134

Latin America and the Caribbean

104,794

110,871

114,993

110,129

110,412

110,194

113,424

Eastern Asia

154,175

174,363

191,563

204,253

202,809

197,529

206,515

Southern Asia

181,667

190,758

194,364

192,842

192,325

190,647

200,510

South-eastern Asia

68,852

74,049

78,246

75,443

73,744

76,540

79,945

Western Asia

17,810

19,936

21,980

31,565

32,470

34,112

35,704

379

421

460

501

520

552

575

Developing Regions Northern Africa

Oceania

Proportion of urban population living in slum (per cent) Major region or area

1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

2010

2012

Developing Regions

46.2

42.9

39.4

35.6

34.3

32.6

32.7

Northern Africa

34.4

28.3

20.3

13.4

13.3

Sub-Saharan Africa

70.0

67.6

65.0

63.0

62.4

61.7

Latin America and the Caribbean

33.7

31.5

29.2

25.5

24.7

23.5

Eastern Asia

43.7

40.6

37.4

33.0

31.1

28.2

Southern Asia

57.2

51.6

45.8

40.0

38.0

35.0

South-eastern Asia

49.5

44.8

39.6

34.2

31.9

31.0

Western Asia

22.5

21.6

20.6

25.8

25.2

24.6

Oceaniac

24.1

127

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Table 4 City population and city population growth rate of urban agglomerations with 750,000 Inhabitants or More in 2009, by Country, 1950-2025 (thousands) City Population of Urban Agglomerations (’000) Country/City

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

1,282

1,616

1,963

2,994

3,731

4,616

5,665

6,888

4.63

3.90

8.44

4.41

4.26

4.09

3.91

1,815

2,023

2,254

2,512

2,800

3,099

3,371

3,595

2.17

2.03

1.68

1.29

647

675

705

736

770

827

902

970

0.86

0.90

1.43

1.73

1.47

Afghanistan Kabul

Algeria El Djazaïr (Algiers) Wahran (Oran)

Angola Huambo Luanda

326

444

578

775

1,034

1,305

1,551

1,789

6.17

5.25

5.87

5.78

4.64

3.46

2.85

1,568

1,953

2,591

3,533

4,772

6,013

7,080

8,077

4.39

5.66

6.20

6.01

4.62

3.27

2.63

Argentina Buenos Aires Córdoba Mendoza Rosario San Miguel de Tucumán

10,513 11,154 11,847 12,551 13,074 13,401 13,606 13,708 1,200

1,275

1,348

1,423

1,493

1,552

1,601

1,638

1.18

1.21

1.15

0.82

0.49

0.30

0.15

1.21

1.11

1.09

0.96

0.78

0.61

0.46

759

802

838

876

917

956

990

1,016

1.11

0.88

0.91

0.84

0.68

0.53

1,084

1,121

1,152

1,186

1,231

1,280

1,322

1,354

0.68

0.55

0.58

0.75

0.78

0.64

0.48

611

666

722

781

831

868

899

924

1.71

1.63

1.58

1.23

0.89

0.70

0.54

1,175

1,142

1,111

1,104

1,112

1,120

1,132

1,143

-0.55

-0.14

0.14

0.15

0.22

0.18

Armenia Yerevan

Australia Adelaide

1,046

1,074

1,102

1,133

1,168

1,214

1,263

1,307

0.53

0.51

0.55

0.61

0.78

0.79

0.68

Brisbane

1,329

1,471

1,603

1,780

1,970

2,096

2,178

2,245

2.04

1.71

2.10

2.03

1.24

0.76

0.61

Melbourne

3,117

3,257

3,433

3,641

3,853

4,022

4,152

4,261

0.88

1.05

1.17

1.13

0.86

0.64

0.51

Perth

1,160

1,273

1,373

1,484

1,599

1,687

1,753

1,810

1.87

1.51

1.56

1.49

1.07

0.77

0.64

Sydney

3,632

3,839

4,078

4,260

4,429

4,592

4,733

4,852

1.11

1.21

0.87

0.78

0.72

0.61

0.50

Wien (Vienna)

1,539

1,544

1,549

1,642

1,706

1,753

1,779

1,801

0.06

0.07

1.17

0.76

0.55

0.30

0.25

1,733

1,766

1,806

1,867

1,972

2,082

2,190

2,291

0.37

0.45

0.67

1.09

1.08

1.01

0.90

3,308

4,180

4,962

5,680

6,447

Azerbaijan Baku

Bangladesh Chittagong

2,023

2,578

7,265

4.85

4.99

4.68

3.43

2.70

2.53

2.39

Dhaka

6,621

8,332 10,285 12,555 14,648 16,623 18,721 20,936

4.60

4.21

3.99

3.08

2.53

2.38

2.24

Khulna

985

1,133

1,285

1,464

1,682

1,933

2,211

2,511

2.79

2.53

2.60

2.79

2.78

2.69

2.54

Rajshahi

521

606

678

764

878

1,013

1,164

1,328

3.02

2.27

2.39

2.77

2.86

2.78

2.63

1,607

1,649

1,700

1,775

1,852

1,905

1,917

0.52

0.61

0.85

0.86

0.56

0.12

0.01

Belarus Minsk

Belgium Antwerpen Bruxelles-Brussel

893

906

925

945

965

979

984

985

0.28

0.43

0.42

0.28

0.10

0.02

1,680

1,715

1,776

1,840

1,904

1,941

1,948

0.41

0.70

0.69

0.39

0.07

0.00

504

577

642

720

844

1,016

1,217

1,445

2.73

2.13

2.28

3.19

3.69

3.62

3.44

1,062

1,267

1,390

1,524

1,673

1,840

2,005

2,156

3.53

1.85

1.87

1.90

1.72

1.45

616

833

1,054

1,325

1,649

1,916

2,103

2,261

6.04

4.69

4.59

4.37

3.01

1.86

1.45

Benin Cotonou

Bolivia La Paz Santa Cruz

128

Statistical Annex

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%) 2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Brazil Aracaju Baixada Santista

453

527

606

691

782

849

883

902

2.99

2.83

2.60

2.49

1.63

0.79

0.42

1,184

1,319

1,468

1,638

1,819

1,949

2,014

2,045

2.15

2.14

2.18

2.10

1.39

0.66

0.30

Belém

1,129

1,393

1,748

1,963

2,191

2,351

2,427

2,460

4.20

4.54

2.32

2.19

1.41

0.64

0.27

Belo Horizonte

3,548

4,093

4,659

5,237

5,852

6,260

6,420

6,463

2.86

2.59

2.34

2.22

1.35

0.50

0.13

Brasília

1,863

2,257

2,746

3,292

3,905

4,296

4,433

4,474

3.84

3.92

3.62

3.42

1.91

0.63

0.19

Campinas

1,693

1,975

2,264

2,533

2,818

3,018

3,109

3,146

3.08

2.74

2.24

2.14

1.37

0.60

0.24

510

606

686

728

772

813

843

861

3.43

2.49

1.18

1.16

1.04

0.72

0.42

1,829

2,138

2,494

2,951

3,462

3,791

3,913

3,953

3.12

3.07

3.37

3.19

1.82

0.63

0.20

503

609

734

882

1,049

1,162

1,210

1,233

3.85

3.72

3.67

3.48

2.04

0.81

0.37

Fortaleza

2,226

2,554

2,875

3,280

3,719

4,011

4,130

4,170

2.75

2.37

2.63

2.51

1.51

0.58

0.20

Goiânia

1,132

1,366

1,635

1,880

2,146

2,327

2,405

2,439

3.75

3.60

2.80

2.65

1.62

0.66

0.27

672

844

1,066

1,173

1,283

1,367

1,415

1,440

4.54

4.68

1.90

1.79

1.28

0.68

0.35

1,052

1,221

1,398

1,613

1,848

2,008

2,078

2,109

2.97

2.72

2.85

2.72

1.66

0.69

0.30

652

741

827

918

1,015

1,089

1,129

1,151

2.54

2.21

2.09

2.01

1.39

0.73

0.38

Cuiabá Curitiba Florianópolis

Grande São Luís Grande Vitória João Pessoa Londrina

491

554

613

709

814

889

925

944

2.39

2.04

2.89

2.78

1.75

0.80

0.41

Maceió

660

798

952

1,068

1,192

1,282

1,329

1,353

3.77

3.55

2.30

2.19

1.46

0.72

0.36

Manaus

955

1,159

1,392

1,577

1,775

1,913

1,979

2,009

3.87

3.68

2.49

2.36

1.50

0.67

0.30

Natal

692

800

910

1,099

1,316

1,460

1,519

1,545

2.89

2.58

3.79

3.60

2.08

0.78

0.34

603

709

815

936

1,069

1,162

1,207

1,230

3.22

2.78

2.66

1.67

0.76

0.37

Pôrto Alegre

Norte/Nordeste Catarinense

2,934

3,236

3,505

3,791

4,092

4,316

4,428

4,469

1.96

1.59

1.57

1.53

1.07

0.51

0.18

Recife

2,690

2,958

3,230

3,542

3,871

4,107

4,219

4,259

1.90

1.76

1.84

1.78

1.18

0.54

0.19

Rio de Janeiro

9,595 10,174 10,803 11,368 11,950 12,404 12,617 12,650

1.17

1.20

1.02

1.00

0.75

0.34

0.05

Salvador

2,331

2.53

2.31

2.84

2.71

1.60

0.59

0.19

2,644

2,968

3,422

3,918

4,243

4,370

4,411

1.53

1.39

1.73

1.66

1.00

0.31

0.02

614

706

789

843

900

950

984

1,004

2.77

2.24

1.32

1.30

1.09

0.70

0.40

1,191

1,168

1,128

1,169

1,196

1,211

1,215

-0.38

-0.70

0.71

0.46

0.25

0.06

0.00

537

667

921

1,328

1,908

2,643

3,457

4,332

4.32

6.45

7.32

7.25

6.52

5.37

4.51

615

836

1,160

1,354

1,562

1,803

2,093

2,427

6.14

6.55

3.10

2.87

2.86

2.99

2.96

Douala

931

1,155

1,432

1,767

2,125

2,478

2,815

3,131

4.30

4.20

3.69

3.07

2.55

2.13

Yaoundé

754

948

1,192

1,489

1,801

2,103

2,392

2,664

4.59

4.45

3.80

3.11

2.57

2.15

738

809

953

1,056

1,182

1,262

1,315

1,364

1.84

3.26

2.06

2.27

1.30

0.82

0.73

São Paulo Teresina

14,776 15,948 17,099 18,647 20,262 21,300 21,628 21,651

Bulgaria Sofia

Burkina Faso Ouagadougou

Cambodia Phnum Pénh (Phnom Penh)

Cameroon

Canada Calgary Edmonton Montréal Ottawa-Gatineau

831

859

924

1,017

1,113

1,178

1,227

1,274

0.67

1.47

1.92

1.80

1.14

0.81

0.74

3,154

3,305

3,471

3,603

3,783

3,925

4,048

4,165

0.94

0.98

0.74

0.98

0.74

0.62

0.57

918

988

1,079

1,119

1,182

1,236

1,285

1,333

1.48

1.74

0.75

1.09

0.89

0.78

0.74

Toronto

3,807

4,197

4,607

5,035

5,449

5,706

5,875

6,029

1.95

1.86

1.78

1.58

0.92

0.59

0.52

Vancouver

1,559

1,789

1,959

2,093

2,220

2,318

2,400

2,479

2.75

1.81

1.33

1.18

0.86

0.70

0.65

129

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

477

565

647

732

829

960

1,170

1,445

3.38

2.72

2.48

2.93

3.96

4.23

4,616

4,964

5,275

5,605

5,952

6,237

6,408

6,503

1.46

1.21

1.20

0.94

0.54

0.29

733

771

803

837

873

911

946

973

1.02

0.83

0.86

0.76

0.57

Chad N'Djaména

Chile Santiago Valparaíso

China Anshan, Liaoning

1,234

1,307

1,384

1,515

1,663

1,827

1,990

2,120

1.15

1.81

1.86

1.89

1.71

1.27

Anyang

410

556

753

1,033

1,130

1,220

1,326

1,417

6.07

6.08

6.32

1.79

1.53

1.67

1.32

Baoding

471

645

884

1,042

1,213

1,385

1,524

1,628

6.28

6.29

3.30

3.03

2.67

1.91

1.32

1,826

1,932

2,072

2,243

Baotou

1,044

1,212

1,406

2,388

2.98

5.23

1.13

1.41

1.58

1.25

Beijing

6,788

8,138

9,757 11,455 12,385 13,335 14,296 15,018

3.63

3.21

1.56

1.48

1.39

0.99

Bengbu

447

554

687

794

914

1,037

1,142

1,222

4.29

2.91

2.80

2.53

1.91

1.36

Benxi

759

807

857

911

969

1,044

1,136

1,215

1.22

1.50

1.68

1.35

2,192

2,446

2,730

3,143

3,597

4,046

4,409

4,673

2.19

2.81

2.70

2.35

1.72

1.16

275

450

735

801

849

913

994

1,064

9.82

1.73

1.16

1.47

1.69

1.36

1,089

1,504

2,077

2,197

2,415

2,655

2,885

3,066

6.45

6.46

1.12

1.89

1.66

1.22

730

883

1,068

1,876

2,062

2,267

2,466

2,624

3.81

11.27

1.89

1.90

1.68

1.24

2,955

3,403

3,919

4,467

4,961

5,441

5,886

6,224

2.82

2.62

2.10

1.85

1.57

1.12

345

483

677

761

842

931

1,020

1,092

6.74

2.33

2.02

2.03

1.81

1.37

3,123

4,342

6,039

7,266

9,401

9,850 10,514 11,065

6.59

6.60

3.70

5.15

0.93

1.30

1.02

994 11.44

11.44

2.16

1.50

1.70

1.75

1.38

4.08

1.54

1.70

1.59

1.17

Changchun Changde Changsha, Hunan Changzhou, Jiangsu Chengdu Chifeng Chongqing Cixi Dalian

207

367

650

725

781

850

928

1,884

2,311

2,833

3,060

3,306

3,599

3,896

4,132

4.08

Dandong

543

607

679

736

795

867

947

1,014

2.24

1.60

1.56

1.73

1.75

1.37

Daqing

757

905

1,082

1,294

1,546

1,797

1,981

2,112

3.58

3.56

3.00

1.96

1.28

Datong, Shanxi

917

981

1,049

1,141

1,251

1,375

1,500

1,602

1.34

1.68

1.84

1.89

1.74

1.31

Dongguan, Guangdong

553

1,416

3,631

4,692

5,347

5,971

6,483

6,852 18.82

18.83

5.13

2.61

2.21

1.64

1.11

Dongying

395

498

628

773

949

1,123

1,246

1,334

4.64

4.14

4.09

3.37

2.09

1.36

Foshan

429

569

754

4,033

4,969

5,455

5,903

6,242

5.63

33.53

4.17

1.86

1.58

1.12

1,289

1,323

1,358

1,368

1,378

1,434

1,544

1,647

0.52

0.16

0.15

0.79

1.49

1.29

Fuxin

Fushun, Liaoning

600

633

667

739

821

912

999

1,070

1.06

2.05

2.12

2.09

1.83

1.37

Fuyang

142

265

695

804

874

957

1,045

1,119 12.42

19.30

2.91

1.69

1.81

1.76

1.36

3,509

Fuzhou, Fujian Guangzhou, Guangdong Guilin

875

1,316

1,978

2,368

2,787

3,201

3,727

8.15

3.59

3.26

2.77

1.84

1.20

3,072

4,745

7,330

8,165

8,884

9,669 10,409 10,961

8.69

8.70

2.16

1.69

1.48

1.03

561

652

757

867

991

1,120

1,231

1,317

2.99

2.71

2.68

2.45

1.89

1.35

Guiyang

1,080

1,417

1,860

2,015

2,154

2,325

2,519

2,679

5.44

1.60

1.33

1.53

1.60

1.23

Haerbin

2,392

2,860

3,419

3,789

4,251

4,473

4,800

5,080

3.57

2.06

2.30

1.02

1.41

1.14

331

494

738

1,410

1,586

1,772

1,937

2,065

8.02

12.96

2.35

2.21

1.78

1.28

Haikou

525

653

811

1,007

1,249

1,488

1,652

1,764

4.33

4.34

4.33

4.32

3.50

2.09

1.32

Hangzhou

Handan

1,476

1,887

2,411

3,516

3,860

4,145

4,470

4,735

4.91

7.55

1.87

1.42

1.51

1.15

Hefei

1,100

1,298

1,532

2,065

2,404

2,626

2,850

3,029

3.32

5.97

3.04

1.76

1.64

1.22

Hengyang

504

632

793

936

1,099

1,263

1,393

1,488

4.53

3.31

3.22

2.79

1.95

1.33

Hohhot

635

798

1,005

1,264

1,589

1,907

2,118

2,258

4.59

4.57

3.66

2.09

1.28

Huai'an

330

520

818

914

998

1,095

1,195

1,278

9.06

2.24

1.76

1.85

1.75

1.34

Huaibei

290

423

617

775

962

1,147

1,275

1,364

7.53

4.55

4.32

3.52

2.12

1.35

Huainan

724

872

1,049

1,212

1,396

1,583

1,738

1,854

3.71

2.88

2.82

2.52

1.86

1.30

130

Statistical Annex

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%) 2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Huizhou

205

336

551

1,212

1,384

1,562

1,713

1,828

9.90

9.91

15.77

2.66

2.42

1.84

1.30

Huludao

351

431

529

648

795

940

1,045

1,120

4.09

4.08

4.07

3.36

2.11

1.38

Jiamusi

469

539

619

711

817

927

1,020

1,092

2.78

2.77

2.52

1.92

1.37

Jiangmen

190

314

519

977

1,103

1,236

1,355

1,448 10.02

10.02

12.67

2.42

2.28

1.84

1.33

Jiaozuo

395

500

631

755

900

1,045

1,155

1,236

4.68

3.59

3.50

2.99

2.01

1.36

Jieyang

176

327

608

732

855

980

1,081

1,158 12.36

12.37

3.73

3.10

2.73

1.96

1.37

Jilin

1,090

1,251

1,435

1,647

1,888

2,135

2,338

2,489

2.75

2.74

2.46

1.81

1.25

Jinan, Shandong

1,923

2,134

2,592

2,951

3,237

3,522

3,813

4,044

2.08

3.89

2.59

1.85

1.69

1.59

1.18

Jingzhou

301

479

761

899

1,039

1,183

1,302

1,392

9.25

9.26

3.33

2.91

2.59

1.91

1.34

Jining, Shandong

343

542

856

972

1,077

1,193

1,304

1,394

9.15

9.16

2.53

2.06

2.04

1.79

1.33

212

456

636

858

1,080

1,216

1,303 15.38

15.38

6.64

5.99

4.61

2.37

1.37

Jinjiang Jinzhou

592

675

770

814

857

918

998

1,068

2.63

1.12

1.02

1.38

1.67

1.36

Jixi, Heilongjiang

650

732

823

927

1,042

1,166

1,278

1,366

2.36

2.24

1.83

1.34

Kaohsiung

1,372

1,431

1,488

1,548

1,611

1,711

1,850

1,971

0.83

0.79

0.80

1.20

1.56

1.27

Kunming

1,100

1,679

2,561

2,857

3,116

3,405

3,691

3,915

8.45

2.19

1.73

1.78

1.61

1.18

Lanzhou

1,290

1,561

1,890

2,085

2,285

2,507

2,724

2,896

3.82

1.96

1.83

1.85

1.66

1.23

Lianyungang

344

442

567

732

878

1,002

1,105

1,183

4.99

5.12

3.63

2.65

1.94

1.36

Linyi, Shandong

260

542

1,130

1,297

1,427

1,571

1,713

1,827 14.67

14.67

2.76

1.91

1.93

1.73

1.29

Liuzhou

637

809

1,027

1,183

1,352

1,527

1,675

1,788

4.78

2.82

2.68

2.43

1.85

1.30

Lufeng

275

391

556

706

889

1,069

1,192

1,276

7.05

4.78

4.60

3.70

2.17

1.37

Luoyang

725

938

1,213

1,373

1,539

1,716

1,875

1,999

5.14

2.48

2.29

2.17

1.78

1.28

Luzhou

273

421

649

751

850

955

1,049

1,123

8.67

2.90

2.49

2.33

1.88

1.37

1,053 12.69

1.37

Maoming

173

327

617

717

803

896

983

12.70

2.98

2.28

2.20

1.85

Mianyang, Sichuan

289

468

758

883

1,006

1,133

1,244

1,331

9.62

3.07

2.59

2.39

1.87

1.34

Mudanjiang

479

564

665

724

783

855

933

1,000

3.29

1.69

1.58

1.75

1.76

1.38

Nanchang

912

1,226

1,648

2,380

2,701

2,978

3,236

3,436

5.92

7.35

2.53

1.95

1.66

1.20

Nanchong Nanjing, Jiangsu

279

411

606

705

808

914

1,006

1,078

7.74

3.05

2.71

2.48

1.91

1.37

2,497

2,944

3,472

3,966

4,519

5,076

5,524

5,845

3.30

2.66

2.61

2.33

1.69

1.13

Nanning

759

1,118

1,445

1,826

2,096

2,306

2,508

2,669

7.74

5.13

4.68

2.76

1.91

1.68

1.24

Nantong

470

534

607

767

1,423

1,586

1,734

1,850

2.55

4.70

12.36

2.17

1.78

1.29

Nanyang, Henan

228

392

672

774

867

967

1,060

1,135 10.79

10.80

2.83

2.26

2.18

1.84

1.36

Neijiang

415

533

685

781

883

991

1,088

1,165

5.00

2.63

2.46

2.31

1.87

1.36

Ningbo

634

909

1,303

1,897

2,217

2,536

2,782

2,959

7.20

7.51

3.12

2.69

1.85

1.23

Panjin

367

467

593

696

813

932

1,028

1,101

4.79

3.22

3.10

2.73

1.97

1.37

Pingdingshan, Henan

431

606

852

942

1,024

1,120

1,222

1,307

6.81

2.01

1.68

1.79

1.74

1.34

20.76

4.71

3.55

3.02

2.02

1.36

3.43

17.48

0.62

1.11

1.58

1.33

Puning

214

603

763

911

1,060

1,172

1,255 20.76

Putian

311

370

439

1,052

1,085

1,147

1,241

1,327

1,332

1,882

2,659

3,029

3,323

3,622

3,923

4,159

6.91

2.61

1.85

1.72

1.59

1.17

358

501

702

800

893

993

1,088

1,165

6.74

2.61

2.21

2.12

1.82

1.36

Qingdao Qinhuangdao Qiqihaer

3.43

1,115

1,218

1,331

1,453

1,588

1,740

1,894

2,019

1.77

1.76

1.77

1.83

1.70

1.28

Quanzhou

174

356

728

898

1,068

1,238

1,367

1,462 14.34

14.34

4.19

3.46

2.95

1.99

1.34

Rizhao

248

390

613

715

816

922

1,014

1,086

9.03

3.08

2.65

2.44

1.90

1.37

Shanghai Shantou

7,823 10,171 13,224 15,184 16,575 17,840 19,094 20,017 724

950

1,247

3,375

3,502

3,704

3,983

131

4,222

9.03 5.25

5.25

2.76

1.75

1.47

1.36

0.94

5.43

19.91

0.74

1.12

1.46

1.16

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

2015

2020

2025

19901995

1,066

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Shaoguan

237

350

517

766

845

914

995

7.79

7.80

7.86

1.96

1.56

1.71

1.37

Shaoxing

181

332

608

731

853

977

1,077

1,153 12.09

12.09

3.69

3.08

2.71

1.96

1.37

Shenyang

3,651

4,081

4,562

4,788

5,166

5,650

6,108

6,457

2.23

0.96

1.52

1.79

1.56

1.11

Shenzhen

875

2,304

6,069

7,931

9,005

9,827 10,585 11,146 19.36

19.37

5.35

2.54

1.75

1.49

1.03

1,372

1,621

1,914

2,192

2,487

2,789

3.33

2.71

2.52

2.30

1.75

1.22

Shijiazhuang

3,044

3,235

3.33

Suzhou, Jiangsu

689

952

1,316

1,992

2,398

2,619

2,842

3,021

6.47

8.29

3.71

1.76

1.64

1.22

Taian, Shandong

367

577

910

1,073

1,239

1,409

1,548

1,653

9.09

3.30

2.88

2.57

1.89

1.31

Taichung

765

864

978

1,106

1,251

1,403

1,538

1,642

2.45

2.47

2.46

2.30

1.83

1.31

Tainan

669

697

723

750

777

825

895

959

0.79

0.76

0.71

0.72

1.19

1.64

1.38

Taipei

2,737

2,698

2,630

2,627

2,633

2,725

2,921

3,102

-0.29

-0.51

-0.02

0.04

0.68

1.39

1.20

Taiyuan, Shanxi

1.18

1,637

2,024

2,503

2,819

3,154

3,504

3,812

4,043

4.25

2.38

2.24

2.11

1.68

Taizhou, Jiangsu

158

290

535

662

795

928

1,028

1,101 12.23

12.24

4.24

3.66

3.10

2.05

1.38

Taizhou, Zhejiang

912

1,042

1,190

1,259

1,338

1,442

1,566

1,671

2.66

1.13

1.21

1.49

1.64

1.30

Tangshan, Hebei

2.66

996

1,177

1,390

1,614

1,870

2,130

2,335

2,487

3.33

2.99

2.95

2.59

1.85

1.26

Tianjin

4,558

5,513

6,670

7,278

7,884

8,559

9,216

9,713

3.81

1.75

1.60

1.64

1.48

1.05

Ürümqi (Wulumqi)

1,149

1,399

1,705

2,025

2,398

2,767

3,040

3,231

3.95

3.43

3.39

2.86

1.88

1.22

634

885

1,235

1,457

1,698

1,941

2,131

2,271

6.67

3.31

3.06

2.67

1.87

1.27

Wenzhou

Weifang

1,111

1,318

1,565

2,187

2,659

3,119

3,436

3,650

3.43

6.69

3.90

3.19

1.94

1.21

Wuhan

3,417

4,763

6,638

7,204

7,681

8,253

8,868

9,347

6.64

1.64

1.28

1.44

1.05

Wuhu, Anhui

442

529

634

759

908

1,057

1,169

1,252

3.60

3.59

3.04

2.02

1.36

Wuxi, Jiangsu

992

1,182

1,409

2,435

2,682

2,951

3,206

3,405

3.51

10.94

1.93

1.91

1.66

1.20

Xiamen

639

952

1,416

1,765

2,207

2,641

2,926

3,112

7.95

4.40

4.47

3.59

2.04

1.24

2,157

2,821

3,690

4,382

4,747

5,038

5,414

5,726

5.37

3.43

1.60

1.19

1.44

1.12

Xiangfan, Hubei

554

685

847

1,278

1,399

1,536

1,674

1,786

4.25

8.21

1.81

1.87

1.72

1.30

Xiangtan, Hunan

456

564

698

806

926

1,050

1,155

1,236

4.25

2.88

2.78

2.52

1.91

1.36

Xi'an, Shaanxi

Xianyang, Shaanxi

317

500

790

908

1,019

1,138

1,247

1,334

9.14

2.77

2.32

2.21

1.83

1.34

Xining

592

707

844

1,032

1,261

1,488

1,649

1,761

3.55

4.00

4.02

3.31

2.05

1.31

Xinxiang

450

586

762

884

1,016

1,152

1,267

1,355

5.26

2.96

2.79

2.52

1.90

1.34

Xuzhou

781

1,033

1,367

1,715

2,142

2,559

2,833

3,015

5.60

4.54

4.44

3.56

2.04

1.24

Yancheng, Jiangsu

392

513

671

1,071

1,289

1,474

1,622

1,731

5.38

9.33

3.72

2.68

1.91

1.31

Yangzhou

455

565

702

871

1,080

1,287

1,430

1,529

4.33

4.31

3.50

2.10

1.34

Yantai

422

717

1,218

1,383

1,526

1,684

1,836

1,958 10.59

10.59

2.55

1.97

1.73

1.28

Yichang

492

583

692

879

959

1,039

1,132

1,210

3.40

4.79

1.74

1.61

1.71

1.35

Yichun, Heilongjiang

855

835

815

796

779

795

856

917

-0.47

-0.45

0.43

1.47

1.37

Yinchuan

384

468

571

720

911

1,099

1,225

1,312

3.97

4.66

4.69

3.76

2.18

1.36

Yingkou

458

535

624

728

848

972

1,072

1,148

3.08

3.07

2.71

1.96

1.37

Yiyang, Hunan

191

360

678

760

820

892

974

1,043 12.69

12.69

2.26

1.52

1.70

1.74

1.37

Yueyang

305

518

881

997

1,096

1,206

1,317

1,408 10.62

10.62

2.47

1.89

1.93

1.76

1.33

10.36

3.45

2.95

2.62

1.90

1.32

3.56

2.72

2.66

2.43

1.88

1.34

Zaozhuang

303

508

853

1,014

1,175

1,339

1,473

1,574 10.36

Zhangjiakou

558

667

797

913

1,043

1,178

1,294

1,384

Zhanjiang

3.56

486

630

818

908

996

1,097

1,198

1,281

5.21

2.08

1.86

1.92

1.77

1.34

1,134

1,663

2,438

2,715

2,966

3,245

3,519

3,734

7.65

2.16

1.76

1.80

1.62

1.19

Zhenjiang, Jiangsu

328

472

679

832

1,007

1,181

1,308

1,399

7.27

4.06

3.82

3.19

2.04

1.35

Zhongshan

393

736

1,376

1,768

2,211

2,643

2,927

3,114 12.51

12.52

5.02

4.47

3.57

2.04

1.24

Zhengzhou

132

Statistical Annex

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

2015

2020

2025

19901995

Zhuhai

220

419

799

1,224

1,252

1,315

1,420

1,516 12.89

Zhuzhou

430

593

819

923

1,025

1,137

1,244

1,330

6.45

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

12.90

8.55

0.44

0.98

1.54

1.31

6.45

2.39

2.10

2.07

1.80

1.34

Zibo

777

1,207

1,874

2,168

2,456

2,752

3,004

3,192

8.80

2.92

2.49

2.28

1.75

1.22

Zigong

368

467

592

847

918

982

1,067

1,142

4.75

7.17

1.62

1.35

1.65

1.35

Zunyi

250

368

541

679

843

1,005

1,118

1,198

7.72

4.55

4.31

3.52

2.14

1.37

5,677

6,214

6,667

6,883

7,069

7,398

7,701

7,969

1.81

1.41

0.64

0.54

0.91

0.80

0.68

2,145

China, Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong

Colombia Barranquilla

1,229

1,363

1,531

1,719

1,867

2,015

2,255

2.06

2.32

1.65

1.53

1.25

1.00

Bogotá

4,740

5,494

6,356

7,353

8,500

9,521 10,129 10,537

2.95

2.92

2.91

2.90

2.27

1.24

0.79

Bucaramanga Cali

650

759

855

964

1,092

1,213

1,303

1,375

3.08

2.39

2.49

2.11

1.43

1.08

1,552

1,757

1,950

2,164

2,401

2,627

2,800

2,938

2.48

2.08

1.80

1.28

0.97

Cartagena

561

645

737

842

962

1,076

1,158

1,223

2.77

2.68

2.67

2.66

2.23

1.47

1.10

Cúcuta

506

571

632

700

774

848

910

963

2.41

2.04

2.03

1.82

1.41

1.13

2,135

2,372

2,724

3,127

3,594

4,019

4,294

4,494

2.11

2.76

2.78

2.24

1.33

0.91

704

830

986

1,172

1,323

1,504

1,703

1,878

3.31

3.44

3.46

2.42

2.55

2.49

1.95

737

867

1,032

1,232

1,461

1,655

1,799

1,923

3.25

3.48

3.54

3.41

2.50

1.67

1.33

2,102

2,535

3,032

3,564

4,125

4,788

5,550

6,321

3.74

3.58

3.24

2.92

2.98

2.95

2.60

136

218

348

556

885

1,273

1,559

1,797

9.36

9.37

9.36

9.32

7.27

4.06

2.83

2,108

2,151

2,187

2,130

2,100

2,095

2,094

0.40

0.33

0.00

-0.53

-0.28

-0.05

-0.00

1,212

1,194

1,172

1,164

1,162

1,165

1,168

1,173

-0.29

-0.38

-0.14

-0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

2,777

2,805

2,833

2,859

2,894

2,941

1.70

0.20

0.18

0.24

0.33

878

1,087

1,324

1,583

4.92

4.03

4.89

4.40

4.26

3.95

3.57

8,754 10,668 12,788 15,041

5.06

4.02

4.72

4.17

3.96

3.62

3.25

4.34

3.45

4.32

4.03

4.19

3.96

3.58

Medellín

Congo Brazzaville

Costa Rica San José

Côte d'Ivoire Abidjan Yamoussoukro

Cuba La Habana (Havana)

Czech Republic Praha (Prague)

Dem. People’s Republic of Korea P’yongyang

2,526

2,749

Democratic Republic of the Congo Kananga

353

451

552

705

Kinshasa

3,564

4,590

5,611

7,106

Kisangani

362

450

535

664

812

1,002

1,221

1,461

Lubumbashi

655

826

995

1,252

1,543

1,899

2,304

2,744

4.62

3.73

4.60

4.17

4.15

3.87

3.49

Mbuji-Mayi

580

749

924

1,190

1,488

1,838

2,232

2,658

5.09

4.20

5.06

4.48

4.22

3.88

3.50

1,035

1,048

1,077

1,125

1,186

1,228

1,238

0.25

0.54

0.87

1.05

0.70

0.16

0.01

1,522

1,661

1,813

1,981

2,180

2,381

2,552

2,691

1.74

1.76

1.77

1.92

1.76

1.39

1.06

Denmark København (Copenhagen)

Dominican Republic Santo Domingo

Ecuador Guayaquil

1,572

1,808

2,077

2,386

2,690

2,941

3,153

3,328

2.80

2.78

2.77

2.39

1.79

1.39

1.08

Quito

1,088

1,217

1,357

1,593

1,846

2,035

2,188

2,316

2.25

2.18

3.20

2.95

1.95

1.45

1.13

133

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Al-Iskandariyah (Alexandria)

3,063

3,277

3,592

3,973

4,387

4,791

5,201

5,648

1.35

1.83

2.02

1.98

1.76

1.64

1.65

Al-Qahirah (Cairo)

9,061

9,707 10,170 10,565 11,001 11,663 12,540 13,531

1.38

0.93

0.76

0.81

1.17

1.45

1.52

970

1,112

1,248

1,401

1,565

1,691

1,789

1,891

2.73

2.32

2.21

1.55

1.13

1.10

1,791

2,144

2,376

2,633

2,930

3,365

3,981

4,757

3.60

2.05

2.13

2.77

3.36

3.56

871

943

1,019

1,067

1,117

1,153

1,170

1,174

1.58

1.56

0.92

0.91

0.65

0.28

0.07

Country/City Egypt

El Salvador San Salvador

Ethiopia Addis Ababa

Finland Helsinki

France Bordeaux

698

730

763

799

838

875

899

913

0.88

0.89

0.93

0.95

0.86

0.55

0.29

Lille

961

984

1,004

1,015

1,033

1,066

1,092

1,107

0.47

0.41

0.22

0.35

0.62

0.50

0.26

Lyon

1,265

1,313

1,362

1,412

1,468

1,523

1,559

1,575

0.74

0.73

0.77

0.74

0.46

0.21

Marseille-Aix-en-Provence 1,305

1,331

1,363

1,413

1,469

1,524

1,560

1,577

0.39

0.48

0.73

0.77

0.74

0.46

0.21

899

936

977

1,018

1,045

1,059

0.46

0.56

0.82

0.86

0.81

0.52

0.27

9,739 10,105 10,485 10,777 10,880 10,884

0.38

0.48

0.74

0.55

0.19

0.01

Nice-Cannes Paris Toulouse

854

874

9,330

9,510

654

714

778

844

912

962

989

1,003

1.75

1.72

1.63

1.55

1.07

0.55

0.28

1,224

1,160

1,100

1,093

1,120

1,136

1,138

-1.07

-0.12

0.48

0.28

0.05

0.00

Georgia Tbilisi

Germany Berlin

3,422

3,471

3,384

3,391

3,450

3,489

3,498

3,499

0.29

-0.51

0.04

0.34

0.23

0.05

0.00

Hamburg

1,639

1,707

1,710

1,739

1,786

1,818

1,825

0.81

0.04

0.34

0.53

0.35

0.08

0.00

Köln (Cologne) München (Munich)

950

965

963

976

1,001

1,015

1,018

0.31

-0.04

0.28

0.50

0.26

0.06

0.00

1,218

1,241

1,202

1,254

1,349

1,401

1,412

1,413

0.37

-0.62

0.85

1.46

0.75

0.17

0.01

1,197

1,415

1,674

1,985

2,342

2,722

3,110

3,497

3.35

3.41

3.30

3.01

2.66

2.35

696

909

1,187

1,519

1,834

2,139

2,448

2,757

5.34

4.94

3.76

3.08

2.70

2.38

3,070

3,122

3,179

3,230

3,257

3,283

3,312

3,346

0.34

0.37

0.31

0.17

0.16

0.17

0.21

746

771

797

821

837

853

868

886

0.66

0.67

0.60

0.40

0.36

0.37

0.40

803

839

908

984

1,104

1,281

1,481

1,690

0.89

1.57

1.62

2.30

2.97

2.90

2.64

895

1,045

1,219

1,411

1,653

2,004

2,427

2,906

3.11

3.08

2.92

3.17

3.84

3.83

3.61

1,134

1,427

1,693

2,171

2,143

2,481

2,868

3,246

4.60

3.42

4.96

-0.25

2.93

2.90

2.48

578

677

793

901

1,028

1,181

1,339

1,493

3.16

2.57

2.63

2.77

2.51

2.18

2,005

1,893

1,787

1,698

1,706

1,711

-1.15

-1.02

0.09

0.05

0.01

0.00

Ghana Accra

Ghana Kumasi

Greece Athínai (Athens) Thessaloniki

Guatemala Ciudad de Guatemala (Guatemala City)

Guinea Conakry

Haiti Port-au-Prince

Honduras Tegucigalpa

Hungary Budapest

134

Statistical Annex

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%) 2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

India Agra Ahmadabad

933

1,095

1,293

1,511

1,703

1,886

2,089

2,313

3.20

3.32

3.13

2.38

2.04

3,255

3,790

4,427

5,122

5,717

6,277

6,892

7,567

3.04

3.11

2.92

2.20

1.87

Aligarh

468

554

653

763

863

960

1,068

1,189

3.39

3.29

3.11

2.44

2.14

Allahabad

830

928

1,035

1,152

1,277

1,415

1,570

1,742

2.23

2.17

2.15

2.06

2.05

2.08

Amritsar

726

844

990

1,152

1,297

1,439

1,597

1,771

3.00

3.20

3.02

2.37

2.08

Asansol

727

891

1,065

1,258

1,423

1,579

1,751

1,941

4.06

3.56

3.33

2.47

2.08

2.07

2.06

Aurangabad

568

708

868

1,049

1,198

1,331

1,478

1,641

4.38

4.09

3.79

2.65

2.12

2.09

4,036

4,744

5,567

6,465

7,218

7,913

8,674

9,507

3.23

3.20

2.99

2.20

1.84

1.83

Bareilly

Bangalore

604

664

722

787

868

963

1,072

1,192

1.87

1.67

1.73

1.95

2.09

2.14

2.13

Bhiwandi

362

479

603

745

859

957

1,066

1,186

5.62

4.60

4.23

2.84

2.18

2.14

1,046

1,228

1,426

1,644

1,843

2,039

2,257

2,497

3.21

3.00

2.85

2.28

2.02

2.03

395

504

637

790

912

1,017

1,131

1,258

4.90

4.69

4.30

2.86

2.17

2.13

Bhopal Bhubaneswar Chandigarh

564

667

791

928

1,049

1,166

1,296

1,440

3.36

3.40

3.20

2.46

2.11

5,338

5,836

6,353

6,919

7,547

8,253

9,043

9,909

1.78

1.70

1.71

1.74

1.79

1.83

Coimbatore

1,088

1,239

1,420

1,619

1,807

1,999

2,212

2,449

2.60

2.73

2.62

2.20

2.02

2.03

Delhi

9,726 12,407 15,730 19,493 22,157 24,160 26,272 28,568

4.87

4.75

4.29

2.56

1.73

1.68

Chennai (Madras)

Dhanbad

805

915

1,046

1,189

1,328

1,472

1,633

1,812

2.56

2.67

2.58

2.21

2.06

2.08

2.07

Durg-Bhilainagar

670

780

905

1,044

1,172

1,301

1,445

1,604

3.03

2.98

2.84

2.32

2.09

2.10

2.09

Guwahati (Gauhati)

564

675

797

932

1,053

1,170

1,300

1,445

3.60

3.32

3.14

2.43

2.11

Gwalior

706

779

855

940

1,039

1,152

1,280

1,423

1.97

1.88

1.90

1.99

2.07

2.11

Hubli-Dharwad

639

705

776

855

946

1,050

1,168

1,299

1.95

1.93

1.95

2.02

2.08

2.13

2.12

Hyderabad

4,193

4,825

5,445

6,117

6,751

7,396

8,110

8,894

2.81

2.42

2.33

1.97

1.83

1.85

1.84

Indore

1,088

1,314

1,597

1,914

2,173

2,405

2,659

2,939

3.77

3.91

3.62

2.54

2.03

2.01

2.00

Jabalpur Jaipur

879

981

1,100

1,231

1,367

1,514

1,679

1,862

2.19

2.29

2.25

2.09

2.04

2.07

1,478

1,826

2,259

2,748

3,131

3,458

3,813

4,205

4.23

4.26

3.91

2.61

1.99

1.96

1.95

Jalandhar

502

588

694

811

917

1,020

1,134

1,262

3.16

3.31

3.13

2.44

2.13

Jammu

356

458

588

739

857

956

1,064

1,184

5.00

5.01

4.58

2.97

2.19

2.14

Jamshedpur

817

938

1,081

1,239

1,387

1,537

1,705

1,891

2.75

2.84

2.72

2.26

2.06

2.07

Jodhpur

654

743

842

951

1,061

1,177

1,308

1,454

2.54

2.51

2.44

2.18

2.09

2.11

Kanpur

2,001

2,294

2,641

3,020

3,364

3,706

4,084

4,501

2.73

2.82

2.68

2.16

1.93

1.94

Kochi (Cochin)

1,103

1,229

1,340

1,464

1,610

1,779

1,971

2,184

2.17

1.73

1.76

1.90

2.00

2.05

10,890 11,924 13,058 14,284 15,552 16,924 18,449 20,112

1.82

1.79

1.70

1.69

1.73

Kolkata (Calcutta) Kota

523

604

692

789

884

982

1,093

1,216

2.89

2.71

2.62

2.26

2.12

2.14

2.13

Kozhikode (Calicut)

781

835

875

924

1,007

1,115

1,240

1,378

1.33

0.94

1.10

1.71

2.05

2.12

2.11

Lucknow

1,614

1,906

2,221

2,567

2,873

3,169

3,497

3,858

3.33

3.06

2.89

2.25

1.96

1.97

Ludhiana

1,006

1,183

1,368

1,572

1,760

1,947

2,156

2,387

3.24

2.91

2.78

2.26

2.03

2.04

2.03

Madurai

1,073

1,132

1,187

1,255

1,365

1,509

1,674

1,856

1.07

0.95

1.11

1.68

2.00

2.07

824

975

1,143

1,328

1,494

1,656

1,836

2,035

3.36

3.18

3.00

2.35

2.06

436

520

626

744

845

941

1,048

1,166

3.53

3.68

3.45

2.56

2.15

2.14

12,308 14,111 16,086 18,205 20,041 21,797 23,719 25,810

2.73

2.62

2.48

1.92

1.68

1.69

2.01

1.85

1.88

1.99

2.08

2.13

2.12

Meerut Moradabad Mumbai (Bombay) Mysore

640

708

776

853

942

1,045

1,163

Nagpur

1,637

1,849

2,089

2,351

2,607

2,875

3,175

3,505

2.44

2.36

2.07

1.96

1.98

Nashik

700

886

1,117

1,381

1,588

1,763

1,954

2,165

4.71

4.63

4.24

2.79

2.09

2.05

135

1,293

State of the Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cities 2012/2013

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%) 2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Patna

1,087

1,331

1,658

2,030

2,321

2,569

2,839

3,137

4.05

4.40

4.04

2.68

2.03

2.00

1.99

Pune (Poona)

2,430

2,978

3,655

4,412

5,002

5,505

6,050

6,649

4.07

4.09

3.76

2.51

1.92

1.89

Raipur

453

553

680

824

943

1,050

1,167

1,298

4.00

4.13

3.83

2.69

2.15

2.13

2.12

Rajkot

638

787

974

1,186

1,357

1,508

1,672

1,855

4.21

4.26

3.93

2.69

2.11

2.07

Ranchi

607

712

844

990

1,119

1,243

1,380

1,533

3.21

3.39

3.19

2.45

2.11

2.10

Salem

574

647

736

834

932

1,035

1,152

1,281

2.38

2.58

2.51

2.22

2.11

2.13

2.12 2.10

Solapur

613

720

853

1,002

1,133

1,258

1,398

1,552

3.20

3.41

3.21

2.45

2.10

Srinagar

730

833

954

1,088

1,216

1,349

1,497

1,662

2.62

2.72

2.62

2.23

2.07

2.09

1,468

1,984

2,699

3,558

4,168

4,607

5,071

5,579

6.01

6.16

5.53

3.16

2.01

1.92

1.91

Surat Thiruvananthapuram

801

853

885

927

1,006

1,114

1,239

1,377

1.25

0.73

0.93

1.65

2.04

2.12

2.11

Tiruchirappalli

705

768

837

916

1,010

1,120

1,245

1,383

1.71

1.74

1.79

1.95

2.07

2.12

2.11

299

392

523

678

795

888

989

1,101

5.43

5.73

5.19

3.19

2.22

2.15

Vadodara

Tiruppur

1,096

1,273

1,465

1,676

1,872

2,071

2,292

2,536

2.99

2.81

2.69

2.22

2.02

2.03

Varanasi (Benares)

1,013

1,106

1,199

1,303

1,432

1,584

1,756

1,947

1.75

1.62

1.67

1.88

2.02

2.07

2.06

821

914

999

1,095

1,207

1,337

1,484

1,647

2.14

1.79

1.82

1.95

2.05

2.09

1,018

1,168

1,309

1,465

1,625

1,798

1,992

2,206

2.73

2.29

2.25

2.07

2.02

2.05

Vijayawada Visakhapatnam

Indonesia Bandar Lampung Bandung Bogor

454

578

743

790

799

842

903

972

4.84

5.01

1.22

0.23

1.03

1.41

1.47

2,035

2,097

2,138

2,280

2,412

2,568

2,739

2,925

0.59

0.39

1.29

1.13

1.25

1.29

1.31

1,251

596

668

751

880

1,044

1,162

1,344

2.26

2.36

3.17

3.41

2.14

1.48

1.43

Jakarta

8,175

8,322

8,390

8,795

9,210

9,709 10,256 10,850

0.36

0.16

0.94

0.92

1.05

1.10

1.13

Malang

689

725

757

773

786

1.03

0.88

0.40

0.35

1.08

1.42

1.48

830

891

959

Medan

1,718

1,816

1,912

2,023

2,131

2,266

2,419

2,586

1.11

1.03

1.13

1.04

1.23

1.30

1.33

Palembang

1,130

1,287

1,459

1,331

1,244

1,271

1,356

1,456

2.59

2.51

-1.83

-1.35

0.43

1.30

1.41

389

481

588

699

769

834

898

967

4.26

4.02

3.47

1.89

1.63

1.47

1.48

Semarang

1,243

1,333

1,427

1,359

1,296

1,334

1,424

1,528

1.40

1.36

-0.98

-0.94

0.57

1.31

1.41

Surabaya

2,467

2,544

2,611

2,623

2,509

2,576

2,738

2,923

0.62

0.51

0.09

-0.89

0.53

1.22

1.31

816

918

1,031

1,159

1,294

1,409

1,512

1,621

2.35

2.34

2.21

1.69

1.41

1.40

Pekan Baru

Ujung Pandang

Iran (Islamic Republic of) Ahvaz Esfahan

685

784

868

960

1,060

1,160

1,249

1,317

2.69

2.03

2.01

1.99

1.80

1.48

1.07

1,094

1,230

1,382

1,553

1,742

1,914

2,056

2,161

2.33

2.34

2.29

1.89

1.43

1.00

Karaj

693

903

1,087

1,317

1,584

1,796

1,937

2,038

5.30

3.70

3.84

3.69

2.52

1.52

1.01

Kermanshah

608

675

729

781

837

905

974

1,029

2.11

1.55

1.36

1.40

1.55

1.48

1.10

1,680

1,854

2,073

2,348

2,652

2,919

3,128

3,277

1.97

2.23

2.50

2.43

1.92

1.38

0.94

622

744

843

938

1,042

1,143

1,232

1,299

3.56

2.49

2.14

2.11

1.85

1.49

1.07

Mashhad Qom Shiraz

946

1,030

1,115

1,203

1,299

1,406

1,510

1,590

1.70

1.58

1.52

1.54

1.58

1.42

1.04

Tabriz

1,058

1,165

1,264

1,369

1,483

1,606

1,724

1,814

1.91

1.64

1.59

1.60

1.41

1.02

Tehran

6,365

6,687

6,880

7,044

7,241

7,614

8,059

8,387

0.99

0.57

0.47

0.55

1.00

1.14

0.80

Iraq Al-Basrah (Basra)

474

631

759

837

923

1,023

1,139

1,267

5.71

3.68

1.96

2.05

2.15

2.14

Al-Mawsil (Mosul)

736

889

1,056

1,236

1,447

1,676

1,885

2,092

3.78

3.44

3.15

2.94

2.35

2.08

4,092

4,598

5,200

5,327

5,891

6,614

7,321

8,043

2.34

2.46

0.48

2.01

2.32

2.03

1.88

Baghdad Irbil (Erbil)

536

644

757

874

1,009

1,158

1,301

1,447

3.65

3.23

2.88

2.74

2.33

2.13

Sulaimaniya

402

483

580

696

836

988

1,121

1,249

3.66

3.34

2.52

2.17

136

Statistical Annex

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

916

946

989

1,037

1,099

1,179

1,261

1,337

0.65

0.87

0.96

1.15

1.42

1.34

1.17

Ireland Dublin

Israel Hefa (Haifa)

582

775

888

992

1,036

1,089

1,144

1,195

5.74

2.73

2.22

0.87

0.98

0.99

0.87

Jerusalem

522

610

651

712

782

850

901

944

3.12

1.31

1.76

1.89

1.66

1.17

0.92

2,026

2,442

2,752

3,012

3,272

3,515

3,689

3,823

3.73

2.39

1.81

1.65

1.44

0.96

0.71

Tel Aviv-Yafo (Tel Aviv-Jaffa)

Italy Milano (Milan)

3,063

3,020

2,985

2,956

2,967

2,980

2,981

-0.28

-0.23

-0.19

0.07

0.09

0.00

Napoli (Naples)

2,208

2,218

2,232

2,248

2,276

2,292

2,293

0.09

0.13

0.14

0.24

0.14

0.01

0.00

844

850

855

861

875

887

891

896

0.14

0.12

0.15

0.32

0.27

0.10

0.09

Roma (Rome)

Palermo

3,450

3,425

3,385

3,352

3,362

3,375

3,376

-0.14

-0.24

-0.20

0.06

0.08

0.00

Torino (Turin)

1,775

1,733

1,694

1,662

1,665

1,678

1,679

1,680

-0.48

-0.45

-0.38

0.03

0.15

0.02

0.01

2,487

2,619

2,716

2,771

2,816

2,833

2,834

1.04

0.73

0.40

0.33

0.12

0.01

0.00 0.00

Japan Fukuoka-Kitakyushu Hiroshima

1,986

2,040

2,044

2,063

2,081

2,088

0.54

0.04

0.19

0.17

0.06

0.01

Kyoto

1,760

1,804

1,806

1,805

1,804

0.49

0.02

-0.01

-0.00

—

Nagoya

2,947

3,055

3,122

3,199

3,267

3,292

3,295

0.71

0.44

0.49

0.42

0.15

0.02

0.00

Osaka-Kobe Sapporo Sendai Tokyo

11,035 11,052 11,165 11,258 11,337 11,365 11,368 11,368

0.03

0.20

0.17

0.14

0.05

0.01

0.00

1.31

0.26

0.73

0.65

0.23

0.02

0.00

2,319

2,476

2,508

2,601

2,687

2,718

2,721

2,021

2,135

2,184

2,284

2,376

2,410

2,413

1.09

0.46

0.90

0.79

0.28

0.03

0.00

32,530 33,587 34,450 35,622 36,669 37,049 37,088 37,088

0.64

0.51

0.67

0.58

0.21

0.02

0.00

Jordan Amman

851

973

1,007

1,042

1,105

1,186

1,272

1,364

2.67

0.68

1.19

1.41

1.39

1.40

1,080

1,109

1,159

1,267

1,383

1,482

1,554

1,612

0.52

0.90

1.78

1.75

1.38

0.95

0.72

Kazakhstan Almaty

Kenya Mombasa Nairobi

476

572

687

830

1,003

1,216

1,479

1,795

3.65

3.67

3.79

3.78

3.86

3.91

3.87

1,380

1,755

2,230

2,814

3,523

4,303

5,192

6,246

4.81

4.79

4.65

4.50

4.00

3.76

3.69

1,392

1,190

1,499

1,888

2,305

2,592

2,790

2,956

-3.13

4.62

4.61

3.99

2.35

1.47

1.16

635

703

770

820

864

912

967

1,034

2.03

1.82

1.27

1.03

1.08

1.17

1.36

Kuwait Al Kuwayt (Kuwait City)

Kyrgyzstan Bishkek

Lao People’s Democratic Republic Vientiane

451

533

612

702

831

1,035

1,270

1,501

3.32

2.75

3.39

4.39

4.08

3.35

1,293

1,268

1,487

1,777

1,937

2,033

2,090

2,135

-0.39

3.19

3.57

1.72

0.97

0.55

0.42

1,042

464

836

1,202

827

728

807

932 -16.18

11.76

7.27

-7.47

-2.56

2.06

2.88

862

984

1,022

1,059

1,108

1,192

1,286

1,364

2.64

0.77

0.71

0.89

1.48

1.51

1.17

948

1,169

1,361

1,590

1,879

2,235

2,658

3,148

4.20

3.04

3.10

3.34

3.47

3.46

3.39

Lebanon Bayrut (Beirut)

Liberia Monrovia

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Tarabulus (Tripoli)

Madagascar Antananarivo

137

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Malawi Blantyre-Limbe

370

446

538

667

856

1,103

1,407

1,766

3.73

3.74

4.30

4.99

5.06

4.87

4.55

Lilongwe

266

362

493

662

865

1,115

1,422

1,784

6.17

5.89

5.35

5.08

4.87

4.54

Malaysia Johore Bharu

417

516

630

797

999

1,175

1,295

1,382

4.28

4.01

4.68

4.53

3.25

1.94

1.31

Klang

345

466

631

849

1,128

1,361

1,503

1,603

6.01

6.07

5.93

5.68

3.75

1.99

1.29

1,120

1,213

1,306

1,405

1,519

1,670

1,820

1,938

1.58

1.47

1.56

1.89

1.72

1.26

746

910

1,110

1,368

1,699

2,086

2,514

2,971

3.96

3.97

4.19

4.32

4.11

3.73

3.35

Kuala Lumpur

Mali Bamako

Mexico Aguascalientes

552

631

734

829

926

995

1,039

1,073

2.69

3.02

2.42

2.23

1.43

0.86

0.66

Chihuahua

539

625

683

760

840

899

939

971

2.94

1.77

2.15

2.00

1.36

0.87

0.67

15,312 16,811 18,022 18,735 19,460 20,078 20,476 20,713

1.87

1.39

0.78

0.76

0.62

0.39

0.23

Ciudad de México (Mexico City) Ciudad Juárez

809

997

1,225

1,308

1,394

1,470

1,528

1,575

4.19

4.11

1.32

1.28

1.05

0.77

0.60

Culiacán

606

690

749

791

836

881

918

950

2.60

1.63

1.10

1.11

1.04

0.84

0.68

3,011

3,431

3,703

4,051

4,402

4,648

4,796

4,902

2.61

1.53

1.80

1.66

1.08

0.63

0.44

454

552

616

697

781

840

878

909

3.89

2.19

2.48

2.28

1.46

0.89

0.68

Guadalajara Hermosillo León de los Aldamas

961

1,127

1,290

1,429

1,571

1,673

1,739

1,791

3.19

2.70

2.04

1.90

1.26

0.78

0.58

Mérida

664

765

848

931

1,015

1,081

1,127

1,164

2.83

2.06

1.85

1.74

1.25

0.83

0.65

Mexicali

607

690

770

851

934

997

1,040

1,075

2.57

2.21

1.99

1.86

1.30

0.85

0.66

Monterrey

2,594

2,961

3,266

3,579

3,896

4,118

4,253

4,351

2.65

1.96

1.83

1.70

1.11

0.65

0.46

Puebla

1,686

1,692

1,907

2,109

2,315

2,460

2,551

2,620

0.07

2.40

2.02

1.86

1.22

0.72

0.53

Querétaro

561

671

795

911

1,031

1,111

1,160

1,198

3.58

3.39

2.71

2.47

1.51

0.86

0.64

Saltillo

491

577

643

720

801

859

897

928

3.21

2.16

2.28

2.11

1.40

0.88

0.68

San Luis Potosí

665

774

858

952

1,049

1,120

1,168

1,206

3.04

2.06

2.09

1.94

1.32

0.84

0.64

Tampico

563

609

659

709

761

806

842

871

1.54

1.60

1.46

1.41

1.16

0.86

0.69

Tijuana

760

1,017

1,287

1,472

1,664

1,789

1,861

1,915

5.82

4.71

2.69

2.44

1.45

0.79

0.58

Toluca de Lerdo

835

981

1,417

1,498

1,582

1,661

1,725

1,776

3.22

7.35

1.11

1.10

0.98

0.75

0.59

Torreón

882

954

1,014

1,105

1,199

1,273

1,325

1,367

1.55

1.22

1.73

1.63

1.19

0.81

0.62

572

661

764

873

966

1,050

1,129

1,202

2.90

2.67

2.03

1.66

1.47

1.25

Mongolia Ulaanbaatar

Morocco Agadir Dar-el-Beida (Casablanca) Fès Marrakech Rabat Tanger

403

536

609

693

783

869

948

1,020

5.70

2.58

2.57

2.44

2.07

1.75

1.46

2,682

2,951

3,043

3,138

3,284

3,537

3,816

4,065

1.91

0.62

0.91

1.49

1.52

1.26

685

785

870

963

1,065

1,173

1,277

1,371

2.72

2.04

2.02

1.92

1.70

1.42

578

681

755

837

928

1,023

1,114

1,198

3.26

2.07

2.06

1.95

1.72

1.44

1,174

1,379

1,507

1,647

1,802

1,973

2,139

2,288

3.22

1.77

1.80

1.81

1.62

1.35

423

510

591

686

788

877

958

1,030

3.73

2.98

2.75

2.16

1.75

1.46

Mozambique Maputo

776

921

1,096

1,341

1,655

1,994

2,350

2,722

3.43

3.47

4.03

4.21

3.73

3.29

2.94

Matola

319

401

504

636

793

961

1,139

1,326

4.55

4.56

4.68

4.41

3.84

3.39

3.04

138

Statistical Annex

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

636

718

810

915

1,034

1,176

—

1,024

1,185

2,907

3,213

3,553

3,928

4,350

4,873

398

509

644

817

1,037

1,295

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%) 2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

1,331

1,484

2.43

2.45

2.57

2.48

2.18

1,344

1,499

—

57.77

2.92

2.52

2.18

5,456

6,022

2.01

2.04

2.27

2.26

1.98

1,589

1,915

4.92

4.70

4.76

4.78

4.44

4.10

3.73

2015

2020

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Myanmar Mandalay Nay Pyi Taw Yangon

Nepal Kathmandu

Netherlands Amsterdam

936

988

1,005

1,023

1,049

1,076

1,097

1,110

1.09

0.34

0.37

0.49

0.50

0.40

0.23

Rotterdam

951

981

991

1,000

1,010

1,026

1,044

1,057

0.62

0.19

0.31

0.36

0.24

870

976

1,063

1,189

1,404

1,566

1,631

1,671

2.30

1.71

2.24

3.33

2.17

0.82

0.48

735

865

887

909

944

1,015

1,103

1,192

3.26

0.50

0.74

1.46

1.67

1.54

432

542

680

848

1,048

1,302

1,643

2,105

4.54

4.55

4.42

4.22

4.35

4.65

4.96

New Zealand Auckland

Nicaragua Managua

Niger Niamey

Nigeria Aba

484

545

614

691

785

914

1,058

1,203

2.38

2.55

3.04

2.93

2.57

Abuja

330

526

832

1,315

1,995

2,563

2,977

3,361

9.31

9.16

8.33

5.01

3.00

2.43

Benin City Ibadan

689

845

975

1,124

1,302

1,523

1,758

1,992

4.08

2.85

2.95

3.13

2.88

2.50

1,739

1,993

2,236

2,509

2,837

3,276

3,760

4,237

2.73

2.30

2.46

2.88

2.75

2.39

Ilorin

515

580

653

735

835

972

1,125

1,279

2.38

2.55

3.03

2.92

2.56

Jos

493

556

627

706

802

934

1,081

1,229

2.39

2.56

3.04

2.93

2.57

Kaduna

961

1,083

1,220

1,375

1,561

1,811

2,087

2,362

2.39

2.55

2.97

2.84

2.48

3,395

3,922

4,495

Kano

2,095

2,360

2,658

2,993

5,060

2.38

2.52

2.89

2.73

2.37

Lagos

4,764

5,966

7,233

8,767 10,578 12,427 14,162 15,810

4.50

3.85

3.76

3.22

2.61

2.20

Maiduguri

598

673

758

854

970

1,127

1,303

1,480

2.37

2.54

3.01

2.90

2.54

Ogbomosho

622

704

798

904

1,032

1,201

1,389

1,576

2.49

2.65

3.04

2.90

2.53

Port Harcourt

680

766

863

972

1,104

1,283

1,482

1,681

2.38

2.55

3.00

2.88

2.52

Zaria

592

667

752

847

963

1,120

1,295

1,471

2.39

2.56

3.02

2.90

2.54

684

729

774

818

888

946

985

1,019

1.28

1.19

1.12

1.64

1.25

0.82

0.68

Norway Oslo

Pakistan Faisalabad

1,520

1,804

2,140

2,496

2,849

3,252

3,704

4,200

3.43

3.41

3.08

2.64

2.65

2.60

2.51

Gujranwala

848

1,019

1,224

1,441

1,652

1,893

2,165

2,464

3.69

3.67

3.26

2.74

2.72

2.68

2.59

Hyderabad

950

1,077

1,222

1,394

1,590

1,822

2,084

2,373

2.51

2.52

2.64

2.73

2.68

2.60

Islamabad

343

452

595

737

856

985

1,132

1,295

5.54

5.47

4.28

3.00

2.83

2.77

2.68

Karachi

7,147

8,467 10,021 11,618 13,125 14,818 16,693 18,725

3.39

3.37

2.96

2.44

2.43

2.38

2.30

Lahore

3,970

4,653

3.17

3.16

2.88

2.50

2.51

2.47

2.38

Multan

953

1,097

1,263

1,453

1,659

1,901

2,174

2,474

2.82

2.83

2.80

2.66

2.72

2.68

2.59

Peshawar

769

905

1,066

1,242

1,422

1,632

1,868

2,128

3.27

3.05

2.72

2.74

2.70

2.61

Quetta Rawalpindi

5,449

6,294

7,132

8,087

9,150 10,308

414

504

614

729

841

968

1,113

1,272

3.96

3.93

3.45

2.85

2.82

2.78

2.69

1,087

1,286

1,520

1,772

2,026

2,318

2,646

3,008

3.36

3.34

3.07

2.68

2.69

2.65

2.56

139

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

847

953

1,072

1,216

1,378

1,527

1,652

1,758

2.36

2.51

2.04

1.59

1.24

1,091

1,287

1,507

1,762

2,030

2,277

2,505

2,715

3.32

3.15

3.13

2.83

2.30

1.91

1.61

848

903

953

2.17

1.52

1.43

1.25

1.09

9,659 10,145 10,530

2.40

2.05

2.02

1.55

0.98

0.75

1.53

1.75

1.76

1.77

1.89

2.04

2.09

Panama Ciudad de Panamá (Panama City)

Paraguay Asunción

Peru Arequipa Lima

564

628

678

732

789

5,837

6,582

7,294

8,081

8,941

612

661

721

787

860

945

1,046

1,162

1,325

1,519

1,701

1,881

Philippines Cebu Davao

854

1,001

1,152

2,080

3.17

2.81

2.80

2.72

2.27

2.02

2.01

Manila

7,973

9,401

9,958 10,761 11,628 12,587 13,687 14,916

3.30

1.15

1.55

1.58

1.68

1.72

444

509

2.71

3.47

3.50

3.38

2.61

2.13

2.09

Zamboanga

605

721

854

973

1,082

1,201

Poland Kraków (Cracow) Warszawa (Warsaw)

735

748

756

757

756

0.35

0.21

0.04

-0.03

-0.01

-0.00

1,628

1,652

1,666

1,693

1,712

1,720

1,722

0.29

0.17

0.33

0.22

0.09

0.02

0.00

Portugal Lisboa (Lisbon)

2,537

2,600

2,672

2,747

2,824

2,907

2,973

3,009

0.49

0.55

0.58

0.45

0.24

Porto

1,164

1,206

1,254

1,303

1,355

1,407

1,448

1,473

0.72

0.77

0.76

0.57

0.35

1,539

1,855

2,237

2,601

2,743

2,763

3.74

3.01

1.07

0.14

0.00

—

651

771

763

833

909

948

960

961

3.39

-0.23

1.77

1.73

0.85

0.24

0.03

Puerto Rico San Juan

Republic of Korea Bucheon Busan

3,778

3,813

3,673

3,533

3,425

3,407

3,409

0.18

-0.75

-0.78

-0.62

-0.11

0.01

0.00

Daegu

2,215

2,434

2,478

2,466

2,458

2,474

2,481

1.88

0.36

-0.10

-0.06

0.12

0.06

0.00

Daejon

1,036

1,256

1,362

1,438

1,509

1,550

1,562

3.85

1.62

1.09

0.97

0.54

0.15

0.01

Goyang

241

493

744

859

961

1,012

1,025

1,026 14.28

8.25

2.88

2.23

1.03

0.25

0.02

Gwangju

1,122

1,249

1,346

1,413

1,476

1,513

1,524

1,525

2.16

1.49

0.97

0.86

0.50

0.15

0.01

Incheon

1,785

2,271

2,464

2,527

2,583

2,621

2,630

2,631

4.82

1.62

0.51

0.43

0.29

0.07

0.00

534

842

911

934

955

974

983

984

9.10

1.59

0.48

0.45

0.39

0.19

0.02

10,544 10,256

9,917

9,825

9,773

9,767

-0.55

-0.67

-0.19

-0.11

-0.01

-0.00

Seongnam Seoul Suweon

628

748

932

1,037

1,132

1,180

1,193

1,194

3.50

4.42

2.13

1.74

0.84

0.21

0.01

Ulsan

673

945

1,011

1,047

1,081

1,106

1,116

1,117

6.80

1.36

0.69

0.65

0.45

0.18

0.02

2,040

2,018

1,949

1,931

1,934

1,947

1,959

1,963

-0.21

-0.69

-0.19

0.03

0.12

0.13

0.05

Romania Bucuresti (Bucharest)

Russian Federation Chelyabinsk

1,129

1,104

1,082

1,094

1,095

-0.45

-0.40

0.21

0.01

0.00

Kazan

1,092

1,096

1,112

1,140

1,159

1,164

-0.01

0.07

0.29

0.49

0.35

0.08

0.00

911

920

961

991

998

999

0.02

0.18

0.88

0.62

0.14

0.01

9,201 10,005 10,418 10,550 10,641 10,662 10,663

0.47

1.67

0.81

0.25

0.17

0.04

0.00 -0.00

Krasnoyarsk Moskva (Moscow)

910 8,987

Nizhniy Novgorod

1,420

1,375

1,331

1,286

1,267

1,256

1,253

-0.65

-0.69

-0.29

-0.19

-0.04

Novosibirsk

1,430

1,428

1,426

1,400

1,397

1,398

-0.03

-0.38

-0.04

0.00

Omsk

1,144

1,140

1,136

1,140

1,124

1,114

1,112

-0.07

0.08

-0.28

-0.18

-0.04

-0.00

Perm

1,076

1,044

1,014

992

982

974

972

-0.59

-0.43

-0.20

-0.16

-0.04

-0.00

Rostov-na-Donu (Rostov-on-Don)

1,022

1,041

1,061

1,056

1,046

1,040

1,038

0.38

-0.10

-0.19

-0.12

-0.03

-0.00

140

Statistical Annex

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Samara

1,244

1,208

1,173

1,146

1,131

1,121

1,119

-0.58

-0.48

-0.27

-0.16

-0.04

-0.00

Sankt Peterburg (Saint Petersburg)

4,989

4,836

4,719

4,598

4,575

4,561

4,557

-0.62

-0.49

-0.52

-0.10

-0.06

-0.01

-0.00

Saratov

901

890

878

853

822

802

798

797

-0.25

-0.60

-0.74

-0.49

-0.11

-0.01

1,078

1,063

1,049

1,032

1,023

1,017

1,016

-0.27

-0.33

-0.18

-0.10

-0.02

-0.00

Volgograd

999

1,005

1,010

994

977

967

965

964

0.11

-0.32

-0.34

-0.21

-0.05

-0.00

Voronezh

880

867

854

847

842

839

838

-0.30

-0.17

-0.12

-0.07

-0.02

-0.00

1,350

1,326

1,303

1,307

1,344

1,370

1,376

1,377

-0.35

0.06

0.56

0.39

0.09

0.00

219

278

497

775

939

1,138

1,392

1,690

4.77

11.63

8.86

3.85

3.84

4.02

3.88

409

533

639

766

902

1,013

1,109

1,197

5.30

3.63

3.62

3.26

2.33

1.80

1.53

Ufa

Yekaterinburg

Rwanda Kigali

Saudi Arabia Ad-Dammam

529

669

795

944

1,104

1,236

1,351

1,456

4.69

3.45

3.12

2.27

1.77

1.50

Ar-Riyadh (Riyadh)

Al-Madinah (Medina)

2,325

3,035

3,567

4,193

4,848

5,373

5,809

6,196

5.33

3.23

2.90

2.06

1.56

1.29

Jiddah

1,742

2,200

2,509

2,860

3,234

3,569

3,868

4,138

4.66

2.63

2.62

2.46

1.97

1.61

1.35

856

1,033

1,168

1,319

1,484

1,642

1,789

1,924

3.76

2.45

2.35

2.02

1.72

1.46

1,405

1,688

2,029

2,434

2,863

3,308

3,796

4,338

3.67

3.68

3.64

3.25

2.89

2.75

2.67

1,130

1,128

1,122

1,116

1,117

1,131

1,149

1,168

-0.03

-0.11

0.03

0.25

0.31

0.32

529

603

688

785

901

1,046

1,219

1,420

2.62

2.63

2.62

2.76

2.99

3.06

3.05

3,016

3,480

4,018

4,267

4,837

5,059

5,219

5,362

2.86

2.88

1.20

2.51

0.90

0.63

0.54

1,035

1,147

1,201

1,415

1,500

1,795

2,156

2,588

2.04

0.92

3.28

1.17

3.59

3.67

3.66

Makkah (Mecca)

Senegal Dakar

Serbia Beograd (Belgrade)

Sierra Leone Freetown

Singapore Singapore

Somalia Muqdisho (Mogadishu)

South Africa Cape Town

2,155

2,394

2,715

3,091

3,405

3,579

3,701

3,824

2.10

2.52

2.59

1.93

1.00

0.67

0.65

Durban

1,723

2,081

2,370

2,638

2,879

3,026

3,133

3,241

3.77

2.60

2.15

1.75

1.00

0.69

0.68

Ekurhuleni (East Rand)

1,531

1,894

2,326

2,824

3,202

3,380

3,497

3,614

4.26

4.11

3.88

2.51

1.08

0.68

0.66

Johannesburg

1,898

2,265

2,732

3,263

3,670

3,867

3,996

4,127

3.53

3.75

3.55

2.35

1.05

0.66

0.64

Port Elizabeth

828

911

958

1,002

1,068

1,126

1,173

1,222

1.93

1.00

0.90

1.27

1.06

0.83

0.82

Pretoria

911

951

1,084

1,274

1,429

1,514

1,575

1,637

0.85

2.61

3.24

2.29

1.16

0.79

0.77

Vereeniging

743

800

897

1,029

1,143

1,211

1,262

1,313

1.48

2.30

2.75

2.09

1.16

0.82

0.81

Barcelona

4,101

4,318

4,560

4,815

5,083

5,315

5,443

5,477

1.03

1.09

0.89

0.48

0.12

Madrid

4,414

4,688

5,014

5,409

5,851

6,213

6,379

6,412

1.20

1.35

1.52

1.57

1.20

0.53

0.10

776

785

795

804

814

832

857

873

0.25

0.24

0.44

0.58

0.38

2,360

3,242

3,949

4,518

5,172

6,046

7,005

7,953

6.35

3.95

2.69

2.70

3.12

2.95

2.54

1,038

1,138

1,206

1,248

1,285

1,309

1,327

1,345

1.83

1.16

0.69

0.59

0.36

0.28

0.26

1,006

1,048

1,078

1,114

1,150

1,177

1,196

1,217

0.83

0.56

0.65

0.64

0.45

0.32

0.35

Spain

Valencia

Sudan Al-Khartum (Khartoum)

Sweden Stockholm

Switzerland ZĂźrich (Zurich)

141

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Syrian Arab Republic Dimashq (Damascus)

1,691

1,854

2,063

2,294

2,597

2,918

3,213

3,534

1.85

2.13

2.48

2.33

1.93

1.90

Halab (Aleppo)

1,554

1,864

2,204

2,605

3,087

3,510

3,864

4,244

3.64

3.35

3.39

2.57

1.92

1.88

Hamah

309

361

495

676

897

1,060

1,180

1,307

3.12

6.27

6.26

5.65

3.34

2.14

2.05

Hims (Homs)

565

684

856

1,072

1,328

1,536

1,702

1,881

3.83

4.49

4.29

2.91

2.06

1.99

5,888

6,106

6,332

6,614

6,976

7,399

7,902

8,470

0.73

0.87

1.07

1.18

1.31

1.39

619

795

1,020

1,310

1,667

2,036

2,398

2,763

5.00

4.82

4.00

3.27

2.84

644

682

711

734

767

814

864

911

1.16

0.84

0.63

0.87

1.21

1.19

1.04

Thailand Krung Thep (Bangkok)

Togo Lomé

Tunisia Tunis

Turkey Adana

907

1,011

1,123

1,245

1,361

1,465

1,556

1,635

2.18

2.10

2.06

1.79

1.46

1.21

0.99

Ankara

2,561

2,842

3,179

3,572

3,906

4,174

4,401

4,591

2.08

2.25

2.33

1.79

1.33

1.06

0.85

Antalya

370

471

595

736

838

909

969

1,022

4.83

4.67

4.26

2.62

1.61

1.28

1.06

Bursa

819

981

1,180

1,413

1,588

1,711

1,816

1,906

3.62

3.69

3.60

2.33

1.50

1.19

0.97

992

1,109

1,197

1,274

595

710

844

1,341

3.54

3.47

3.22

2.22

1.53

1.24

1.02

Istanbul

Gaziantep

6,552

7,665

8,744

9,710 10,525 11,164 11,689 12,108

3.14

2.63

2.10

1.61

1.18

0.92

0.70

Izmir

1,741

1,966

2,216

2,487

2,723

2,917

3,083

3,224

2.43

2.39

2.31

1.81

1.38

1.11

0.90

508

610

734

871

978

1,057

1,125

1,186

3.66

3.69

3.42

2.31

1.56

1.26

1.04

755

912

1,097

1,318

1,598

1,982

2,504

3,189

3.79

3.68

3.85

4.31

4.67

4.83

Konya

Uganda Kampala

Ukraine Dnipropetrovsk

1,162

1,119

1,077

1,052

1,004

974

967

-0.77

-0.47

-0.93

-0.61

-0.14

-0.01

Donetsk

1,097

1,061

1,026

997

966

946

941

-0.67

-0.57

-0.64

-0.41

-0.09

-0.01 -0.00

Kharkiv

1,586

1,534

1,484

1,464

1,453

1,446

1,444

-0.66

-0.28

-0.15

-0.10

-0.02

Kyiv (Kiev)

2,574

2,590

2,606

2,673

2,805

2,894

2,914

2,915

0.13

0.51

0.96

0.63

0.14

0.01

Odesa

1,092

1,064

1,037

1,007

1,009

1,010

1,011

-0.52

-0.57

0.04

0.02

0.01

0.00

873

847

822

797

775

761

758

-0.60

-0.61

-0.56

-0.36

-0.08

-0.00

Dubayy (Dubai)

473

650

906

1,264

1,567

1,772

1,934

2,076

6.36

6.64

6.67

4.30

2.46

1.76

1.42

Sharjah

229

311

444

637

809

926

1,016

1,096

6.11

7.12

7.22

4.78

2.69

1.86

1.51

Zaporizhzhya

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom Birmingham

2,301

2,291

2,285

2,283

2,302

2,337

2,375

2,415

-0.09

-0.05

-0.02

0.17

0.30

0.32

0.33

Glasgow

1,217

1,186

1,171

1,160

1,170

1,193

1,218

1,245

-0.52

-0.26

-0.19

0.17

0.39

0.42

0.43

831

829

818

811

819

837

857

878

-0.05

-0.26

-0.18

0.21

0.44

0.47

0.48

London

Liverpool

7,654

7,908

8,225

8,506

8,631

8,693

8,753

8,816

0.65

0.79

0.67

0.29

0.14

Manchester

2,282

2,264

2,248

2,237

2,253

2,287

2,325

2,364

-0.16

-0.14

-0.10

0.14

0.30

0.33

Newcastle upon Tyne West Yorkshire

877

883

880

891

911

932

954

0.14

-0.07

-0.01

0.26

0.43

0.46

0.47

1,449

1,468

1,495

1,521

1,547

1,575

1,606

1,637

0.27

0.36

0.34

0.37

0.38

0.39

1,668

2,116

2,680

3,349

4,153

5,103

6,202

4.75

4.73

4.46

4.30

4.12

3.90

United Republic of Tanzania Dar es Salaam

1,316

142

Statistical Annex

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%)

2015

2020

2025

19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

United States of America Atlanta

2,184

2,781

3,542

4,306

4,691

4,886

5,036

5,153

4.84

3.90

1.72

0.81

0.60

0.46

Austin

569

720

913

1,107

1,215

1,277

1,329

1,373

4.73

3.87

1.85

1.00

0.80

0.65

Baltimore

1,849

1,962

2,083

2,206

2,320

2,421

2,508

2,579

1.19

1.15

1.01

0.85

0.70

0.56

Boston

3,428

3,726

4,049

4,363

4,593

4,773

4,920

5,034

1.66

1.49

1.03

0.77

0.61

0.46

Bridgeport-Stamford

714

799

894

987

1,055

1,108

1,154

1,193

2.25

1.99

1.32

0.98

0.82

0.67

Buffalo

955

966

977

1,000

1,045

1,096

1,142

1,181

0.23

0.45

0.89

0.95

0.82

0.67

Charlotte Chicago

461

596

769

946

1,043

1,098

1,144

1,183

5.10

4.16

1.94

1.03

0.82

0.67

7,374

7,839

8,333

8,818

9,204

9,513

9,758

9,936

1.22

1.13

0.86

0.66

0.51

0.36

Cincinnati

1,335

1,419

1,508

1,600

1,686

1,764

1,831

1,887

1.22

1.19

1.05

0.90

0.75

0.60

Cleveland

1,680

1,734

1,789

1,856

1,942

2,029

2,104

2,166

0.63

0.73

0.90

0.87

0.73

0.58

950

1,040

1,138

1,236

1,313

1,376

1,432

1,478

1.81

1.65

1.21

0.95

0.79

0.64

3,219

3,665

4,172

4,657

4,951

5,145

5,301

5,421

2.59

2.20

1.22

0.77

0.60

0.45

616

659

706

754

800

841

878

909

1.37

1.33

1.17

1.01

0.86

0.71

Columbus, Ohio Dallas-Fort Worth Dayton Denver-Aurora

1,528

1,747

1,998

2,240

2,394

2,501

2,590

2,662

2.68

2.29

1.33

0.87

0.70

0.55

Detroit

3,703

3,804

3,909

4,036

4,200

4,363

4,500

4,608

0.54

0.64

0.80

0.76

0.62

0.47

El Paso

573

623

678

732

779

820

856

887

1.67

1.56

1.23

1.02

0.86

0.71

Hartford

783

818

853

894

942

989

1,031

1,067

0.86

0.93

1.04

0.98

0.83

0.68

Honolulu

635

676

720

767

812

854

891

923

1.27

1.25

1.14

1.00

0.85

0.71

Houston

2,922

3,353

3,849

4,322

4,605

4,789

4,937

5,051

2.76

2.32

1.27

0.78

0.61

0.46

Indianapolis

921

1,063

1,228

1,387

1,490

1,562

1,623

1,674

2.87

2.45

1.42

0.94

0.77

0.62

Jacksonville, Florida

742

811

886

962

1,022

1,074

1,119

1,157

1.78

1.63

1.23

0.98

0.82

0.67

1,233

1,297

1,365

1,438

1,513

1,584

1,645

1,697

1.02

1.04

1.02

0.91

0.77

0.62

708

973

1,335

1,721

1,916

2,011

2,086

2,147

6.34

5.08

2.14

0.97

0.73

0.58

10,883 11,339 11,814 12,303 12,762 13,156 13,463 13,677

0.82

0.81

0.73

0.61

0.46

0.32

1.34

1.30

1.14

0.98

0.83

0.68

Kansas City Las Vegas Los AngelesLong Beach-Santa Ana Louisville

757

810

866

925

979

1,028

1,071

1,108

McAllen

268

377

532

701

789

833

870

901

6.87

5.51

2.36

1.10

0.86

0.71

Memphis

829

899

976

1,053

1,117

1,173

1,221

1,262

1.64

1.52

1.19

0.97

0.81

0.66

Miami

3,969

4,431

4,946

5,436

5,750

5,967

6,142

6,275

2.20

1.89

1.12

0.74

0.58

0.43

Milwaukee

1,228

1,269

1,311

1,362

1,428

1,495

1,554

1,603

0.65

0.76

0.94

0.91

0.77

0.63

Minneapolis-St. Paul

2,087

2,236

2,397

2,557

2,693

2,808

2,905

2,984

1.38

1.39

1.30

1.03

0.84

0.68

0.54

Nashville-Davidson New Orleans New York-Newark Oklahoma City Orlando Philadelphia

577

660

755

848

911

958

999

1,034

2.69

2.32

1.44

1.01

0.84

0.69

1,039

1,024

1,009

996

858

921

984

1,044

-0.30

-0.26

-2.99

1.43

1.33

1.18

16,086 16,943 17,846 18,727 19,425 19,968 20,374 20,636 711

729

748

773

812

854

891

923

1.04

0.96

0.73

0.55

0.40

0.26

0.51

0.67

0.98

0.99

0.85

0.71

893

1,020

1,165

1,306

1,400

1,468

1,526

1,575

2.66

2.29

1.38

0.95

0.78

0.63

4,725

4,938

5,160

5,395

5,626

5,833

6,004

6,135

0.88

0.89

0.84

0.72

0.58

0.43

Phoenix-Mesa

2,025

2,437

2,934

3,418

3,684

3,840

3,965

4,063

3.71

3.05

1.50

0.83

0.64

0.49

Pittsburgh

1,681

1,717

1,755

1,807

1,887

1,971

2,045

2,106

0.43

0.58

0.87

0.73

0.59

Portland

1,181

1,372

1,595

1,811

1,944

2,035

2,110

2,173

3.01

2.54

1.42

0.91

0.73

0.58

Providence

1,047

1,111

1,178

1,249

1,317

1,380

1,435

1,482

1.18

1.16

1.07

0.93

0.79

0.64

Raleigh

310

413

549

692

769

812

848

879

5.71

4.63

2.11

1.08

0.86

0.71

Richmond

696

757

822

888

944

991

1,034

1,070

1.66

1.54

1.21

0.99

0.83

0.68

143

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

City Population Growth Rate of Urban Agglomerations (%) 19901995

19952000

20002005

20052010

20102015

20152020

20202025

Country/City

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Riverside-San Bernardino

1,178

1,336

1,516

1,691

1,807

1,891

1,962

2,021

2.53

2.18

1.32

0.91

0.74

0.59

621

658

696

738

780

820

857

888

1.14

1.15

1.12

1.01

0.86

0.71

1,104

1,244

1,402

1,555

1,660

1,739

1,805

1,861

2.39

2.08

1.30

0.92

0.75

0.60

792

840

890

944

997

1,047

1,091

1,129

1.17

1.10

0.97

0.83

0.68

1,134

1,229

1,333

1,436

1,521

1,593

1,655

1,707

1.62

1.49

1.15

0.92

0.77

0.62

Rochester Sacramento Salt Lake City San Antonio San Diego

2,356

2,514

2,683

2,853

2,999

3,125

3,231

3,316

1.30

1.23

1.00

0.82

0.67

0.52

San Francisco-Oakland

2,961

3,095

3,236

3,386

3,541

3,683

3,804

3,900

0.89

0.91

0.89

0.79

0.64

0.50

San Jose

1,376

1,457

1,543

1,632

1,718

1,797

1,865

1,922

1.14

1.13

1.03

0.90

0.75

0.60

Seattle

2,206

2,453

2,727

2,991

3,171

3,305

3,415

3,504

2.12

1.85

1.17

0.83

0.66

0.51

St. Louis

1,950

2,014

2,081

2,160

2,259

2,357

2,442

2,511

0.65

0.74

0.89

0.85

0.71

0.56

Tampa-St. Petersburg

1,717

1,886

2,072

2,253

2,387

2,492

2,581

2,653

1.88

1.68

1.15

0.86

0.70

0.55

582

649

724

798

853

898

936

970

2.18

1.94

1.33

1.01

0.85

0.70

Tucson Virginia Beach

1,286

1,341

1,397

1,461

1,534

1,605

1,668

1,720

0.83

0.89

0.97

0.91

0.76

0.62

Washington, D.C.

3,376

3,651

3,949

4,239

4,460

4,635

4,779

4,891

1.57

1.42

1.01

0.77

0.61

0.46

1,546

1,584

1,605

1,622

1,635

1,644

1,653

1,657

0.49

0.26

0.21

0.16

0.11

0.04

2,100

2,116

2,135

2,169

2,210

2,279

2,420

2,616

0.15

0.17

0.32

0.37

0.62

1.20

1.55

Uruguay Montevideo

Uzbekistan Tashkent

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 742

838

946

1,067

1,180

1,273

1,350

1,413

2.42

2.43

2.39

2.02

1.52

1.17

0.92

Caracas

Barquisimeto

2,767

2,816

2,864

2,929

3,090

3,292

3,467

3,605

0.35

0.34

0.45

1.07

1.27

1.03

0.78

Maracaibo

1,303

1,501

1,724

1,973

2,192

2,357

2,488

2,593

2.82

2.77

2.70

2.10

1.45

1.08

0.83

Maracay

760

831

898

973

1,057

1,138

1,208

1,266

1.77

1.56

1.59

1.67

1.48

1.19

0.93

Valencia

1,053

1,213

1,392

1,592

1,770

1,905

2,014

2,103

2.82

2.76

2.69

2.12

1.48

1.11

0.86 2.38

Viet Nam 388

470

570

692

838

997

1,146

1,291

3.86

3.85

3.47

2.78

Hà Noi

Da Nang - CP

1,136

1,344

1,631

2,144

2,814

3,516

4,056

4,530

3.35

3.88

5.46

5.44

4.45

2.86

2.21

Hai Phòng

1,474

1,585

1,704

1,831

1,970

2,164

2,432

2,722

1.45

1.46

1.88

2.34

2.25

Thành Pho Ho Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City)

3,411

3,802

4,336

5,264

6,167

7,140

8,067

8,957

2.17

2.63

3.88

3.17

2.93

2.44

2.09

653

1,034

1,365

1,801

2,342

2,934

3,585

4,296

9.18

5.55

5.54

5.26

4.51

4.01

3.62

757

902

1,073

1,265

1,451

1,666

1,941

2,267

3.49

3.29

2.74

2.77

3.05

3.10

1,047

1,255

1,379

1,513

1,632

1,856

2,170

2,467

3.62

1.89

1.85

1.51

2.57

3.13

2.57

Yemen Sana'a'

Zambia Lusaka

Zimbabwe Harare

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2010) World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, United Nations, New York.

144

Statistical Annex

Table 5 Urban Population and Urbanization by Country, 1990-2030 Urban Population (’000) Country

2010

Level of urbanization (%)

1990

2000

2020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Algeria

13,168

18,246

23,555

29,194

34,097

52.1

59.8

66.5

71.9

76.2

Angola

3,960

6,995

11,112

16,184

21,784

37.1

49.0

58.5

66.0

71.6

Benin

1,654

2,553

3,873

5,751

8,275

34.5

38.3

42.0

47.2

53.7

Africa

Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde

567

917

1,209

1,506

1,769

41.9

53.2

61.1

67.6

72.7

1,218

2,083

4,184

7,523

11,958

13.8

17.8

25.7

34.4

42.8

356

536

937

1,524

2,362

6.3

8.3

11.0

14.8

19.8

4,981

7,910

11,655

15,941

20,304

40.7

49.9

58.4

65.5

71.0

156

235

313

394

468

44.1

53.4

61.1

67.4

72.5

Central African Republic

1,078

1,410

1,755

2,268

2,978

36.8

37.6

38.9

42.5

48.4

Chad

1,271

1,964

3,179

5,054

7,843

20.8

23.4

27.6

33.9

41.2

122

155

195

259

356

27.9

28.1

28.2

30.8

36.5

Comoros Congo

1,329

1,770

2,335

3,118

3,883

54.3

58.3

62.1

66.3

70.9

Côte d'Ivoire

5,011

7,524

10,906

15,574

20,873

39.7

43.5

50.6

57.8

64.1

10,299

15,168

23,887

36,834

53,382

27.8

29.8

35.2

42.0

49.2

Democratic Republic of the Congo Djibouti Egypt

424

555

670

798

956

75.7

76.0

76.2

77.6

80.2

25,124

30,032

36,664

45,301

56,477

43.5

42.8

43.4

45.9

50.9

Equatorial Guinea

132

205

275

379

527

34.7

38.8

39.7

43.3

49.4

Eritrea

499

650

1,127

1,845

2,780

15.8

17.8

21.6

27.5

34.4

6,095

9,762

14,158

20,800

31,383

12.6

14.9

16.7

19.3

23.9

641

989

1,292

1,579

1,853

69.1

80.1

86.0

88.8

90.6

Ethiopia Gabon

343

639

1,018

1,449

1,943

38.3

49.1

58.1

65.0

71.0

Ghana

Gambia

5,454

8,584

12,524

17,274

22,565

36.4

44.0

51.5

58.4

64.7

Guinea

1,723

2,603

3,651

5,580

8,219

28.0

31.0

35.4

41.4

48.6

288

387

494

678

979

28.1

29.7

30.0

32.8

38.6

4,271

6,204

9,064

13,826

20,884

18.2

19.7

22.2

26.6

33.0

Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho

224

377

560

775

999

14.0

20.0

26.9

34.5

42.4

Liberia

887

1,252

1,961

2,739

3,725

40.9

44.3

47.8

52.1

57.6

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

3,305

4,083

5,098

6,181

7,060

75.7

76.4

77.9

80.3

82.9

Madagascar

2,657

4,143

6,082

8,953

13,048

23.6

27.1

30.2

34.9

41.4

Malawi

1,093

1,796

3,102

5,240

8,395

11.6

15.2

19.8

25.5

32.4

Mali

2,018

2,982

4,777

7,325

10,491

23.3

28.3

35.9

43.7

51.3

Mauritania

789

1,041

1,395

1,859

2,478

39.7

40.0

41.4

45.4

51.7

Mauritius

464

510

542

595

681

43.9

42.7

41.8

43.4

48.0

Mayotte

100

129

168

36.1

47.7

50.1

51.6

55.7

Morocco

12,005

15,375

18,859

23,158

27,157

48.4

53.3

58.2

64.0

69.2

2,857

5,601

8,996

13,208

18,199

21.1

30.7

38.4

46.3

53.7

Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria

392

590

840

1,161

1,541

27.7

32.4

38.0

44.4

51.5

1,215

1,785

2,719

4,417

7,641

15.4

16.2

17.1

19.3

23.5

34,343

53,078

78,818

109,859

144,116

35.3

42.5

49.8

56.8

63.6

Réunion

491

650

787

891

972

81.2

89.9

94.0

95.7

96.3

Rwanda

387

1,096

1,938

2,993

4,550

5.4

13.8

18.9

22.6

28.3

41.6

39.7

41.7

46.4

Saint Helena Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone

103

136

173

43.6

53.4

62.2

69.0

74.0

2,932

3,995

5,450

7,524

10,269

38.9

40.3

42.4

46.5

52.5

49.3

51.0

55.3

61.1

66.6

1,345

1,501

2,241

3,134

4,384

32.9

35.5

38.4

42.8

49.0

145

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013

Table 5 Urban Population and Urbanization by Country, 1990-2030 Urban Population (’000) Country Somalia South Africa Sudan Swaziland

1990

2000

2010

2020

Level of urbanization (%) 2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

1,956

2,458

3,505

5,268

7,851

29.7

33.2

37.4

43.0

49.9

19,121

25,528

31,155

35,060

39,032

52.0

56.9

61.7

66.6

71.3

7,211

11,661

17,322

24,804

33,267

26.6

33.4

40.1

47.4

54.5

198

244

257

307

400

22.9

22.6

21.4

22.3

26.2

Togo

1,182

1,917

2,945

4,261

5,795

30.1

36.5

43.4

50.5

57.3

Tunisia

4,760

5,996

6,980

8,096

9,115

57.9

63.4

67.3

71.2

75.2

Uganda

1,964

2,952

4,493

7,381

12,503

11.1

12.1

13.3

15.9

20.6

United Republic of Tanzania

4,807

7,614

11,883

18,945

29,190

18.9

22.3

26.4

31.8

38.7

190

264

434

606

704

86.2

83.9

81.8

83.9

85.9

Zambia

Western Sahara

3,117

3,643

4,733

6,584

9,340

39.4

34.8

35.7

38.9

44.7

Zimbabwe

3,033

4,205

4,837

6,839

9,086

29.0

33.8

38.3

43.9

50.7

Asia Afghanistan

2,277

4,148

6,581

10,450

16,296

18.1

20.2

22.6

26.4

32.2

Armenia

2,390

1,989

1,984

2,087

2,186

67.4

64.7

64.2

65.7

69.0

Azerbaijan

3,876

4,158

4,639

5,332

6,044

53.7

51.2

51.9

54.2

58.6

Bahrain Bangladesh Bhutan Brunei Darussalam Cambodia China China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR Cyprus Dem. People’s Republic of Korea Georgia India Indonesia

434

574

715

852

984

88.1

88.4

88.6

89.4

90.6

22,908

33,208

46,149

62,886

83,408

19.8

23.6

28.1

33.9

41.0

143

246

348

451

16.4

25.4

34.7

42.4

50.0

169

237

308

379

450

65.8

71.1

75.7

79.3

82.3

1,221

2,157

3,027

4,214

5,870

12.6

16.9

20.1

23.8

29.2

301,995

453,029

635,839

786,761

905,449

26.4

35.8

47.0

55.0

61.9

5,677

6,667

7,069

7,701

8,185

99.5

100.0

371

441

548

588

611

99.8

100.0

454

540

619

705

797

66.8

68.6

70.3

72.7

75.7

11,760

13,581

14,446

15,413

16,633

58.4

59.4

60.2

62.1

65.7

3,005

2,498

2,225

2,177

2,218

55.0

52.6

52.7

54.7

58.7

220,260

288,430

364,459

463,328

590,091

25.5

27.7

30.0

33.9

39.7

54,252

86,219

102,960

122,257

145,776

30.6

42.0

44.3

48.1

53.7

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

31,958

42,952

53,120

63,596

71,767

56.3

64.2

70.8

75.9

79.8

Iraq

12,602

16,722

20,822

26,772

33,930

69.7

67.8

66.2

66.6

69.4

Israel

4,079

5,563

6,692

7,673

8,583

90.4

91.4

91.9

92.4

93.1

Japan

77,726

82,633

84,875

85,848

85,700

63.1

65.2

66.8

69.4

73.0

Jordan

2,350

3,798

5,083

5,998

7,063

72.2

78.3

78.5

79.8

82.0

Kazakhstan

9,301

8,417

9,217

10,417

11,525

56.3

58.5

62.3

66.8

Kuwait

2,100

2,188

3,001

3,637

4,218

98.0

98.2

98.4

98.6

98.7

Kyrgyzstan

1,660

1,744

1,918

2,202

2,625

37.8

35.2

34.5

35.7

40.1

649

1,187

2,136

3,381

4,699

15.4

22.0

33.2

44.2

53.1

Lao People’s Democratic Republic Lebanon

2,472

3,244

3,712

4,065

4,374

83.1

86.0

87.2

88.6

90.0

Malaysia

9,014

14,424

20,146

25,128

28,999

49.8

62.0

72.2

78.5

82.2

Maldives

126

186

242

25.8

27.7

40.1

51.5

60.1

Mongolia

1,264

1,358

1,675

2,010

2,316

57.0

56.9

62.0

67.0

71.6

Myanmar

10,092

12,956

16,990

22,570

28,545

24.7

27.8

33.6

40.7

48.1

1,692

3,281

5,559

8,739

12,902

8.9

13.4

18.6

24.8

31.7

Nepal Occupied Palestinian Territory

1,462

2,267

3,269

4,447

5,810

67.9

72.0

74.1

76.6

79.4

Oman

1,218

1,719

2,122

2,645

3,184

66.1

71.6

73.0

75.7

78.7

Pakistan

35,400

49,088

66,318

90,199

121,218

30.6

33.1

35.9

39.9

45.6

Philippines

30,333

37,283

45,781

57,657

72,555

48.6

48.0

48.9

52.6

58.3

146

Statistical Annex

Table 5 Urban Population and Urbanization by Country, 1990-2030 Urban Population (â&#x20AC;&#x2122;000) Country Qatar

1990

2000

2010

Level of urbanization (%)

2020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

431

586

1,445

1,679

1,891

92.2

94.9

95.8

96.5

96.9

Republic of Korea

31,740

36,967

40,235

42,362

43,086

73.8

79.6

83.0

85.6

87.7

Saudi Arabia

12,451

16,615

21,541

26,617

31,516

76.6

79.8

82.1

84.2

86.2

3,016

4,018

4,837

5,219

5,460

100.0

Singapore Sri Lanka

3,217

2,971

2,921

3,360

4,339

18.6

15.8

14.3

15.5

19.6

Syrian Arab Republic

6,224

8,577

12,545

15,948

19,976

48.9

51.9

55.7

60.2

65.4

Tajikistan

1,679

1,635

1,862

2,364

3,121

31.7

26.5

26.3

28.0

32.5

Thailand

16,675

19,417

23,142

27,800

33,624

29.4

31.1

34.0

38.9

45.8

Timor-Leste Turkey

154

198

329

538

848

20.8

24.3

28.1

33.2

39.9

33,204

43,027

52,728

62,033

70,247

59.2

64.7

69.6

74.0

77.7

Turkmenistan

1,653

2,062

2,562

3,175

3,793

45.1

45.8

49.5

54.6

60.4

United Arab Emirates

1,476

2,599

3,956

4,915

5,821

79.1

80.3

84.1

86.8

88.8

Uzbekistan

8,241

9,273

10,075

11,789

14,500

40.2

37.4

36.2

37.8

42.7

13,418

19,263

27,046

36,269

46,585

20.3

24.5

30.4

37.0

44.2

2,577

4,776

7,714

12,082

17,844

20.9

26.3

31.8

38.2

45.3

Albania

1,198

1,280

1,645

2,027

2,301

36.4

41.7

51.9

60.7

67.4

Andorra

94.7

92.4

88.0

84.9

85.1

Viet Nam Yemen

Europe

Austria

5,045

5,267

5,666

6,003

6,372

65.8

67.6

70.3

73.8

Belarus

6,769

7,030

7,162

7,219

7,070

66.0

69.9

74.7

79.2

82.6

Belgium

9,573

9,899

10,421

10,792

11,070

96.4

97.1

97.4

97.7

97.9

Bosnia and Herzegovina

1,691

1,597

1,828

2,028

2,170

39.2

43.2

48.6

55.2

61.7

Bulgaria

5,854

5,516

5,357

5,215

5,012

66.4

68.9

71.5

74.3

77.5

31.4

30.5

31.4

34.2

39.1

Croatia

Channel Islands

2,441

2,504

2,546

2,657

2,781

54.0

55.6

57.7

61.5

66.5

Czech Republic

7,750

7,565

7,656

7,929

8,202

75.2

74.0

73.5

75.0

78.0

Denmark

4,361

4,540

4,761

4,923

5,058

84.8

85.1

86.9

88.6

90.1

Estonia

1,115

951

931

942

955

71.1

69.4

69.5

70.7

73.4

Faeroe Islands Finland

30.6

36.3

40.3

42.2

46.6

3,958

4,252

4,549

4,805

4,947

79.4

82.2

85.1

87.4

89.2

France

42,095

45,466

53,398

58,267

61,043

74.1

76.9

85.3

89.7

91.8

Germany

58,080

59,970

60,598

60,827

60,993

73.1

73.8

75.6

78.3 100.0

Gibraltar

100.0

5,979

6,537

6,868

7,307

7,785

58.8

59.7

61.4

64.8

69.3

Holy See

100.0

Hungary

Greece

6,824

6,596

6,791

7,011

7,180

65.8

64.6

68.1

71.8

75.5

Iceland

231

260

308

349

372

90.8

92.4

93.4

94.3

95.0

Ireland

2,000

2,250

2,842

3,370

3,889

56.9

59.1

61.9

65.5

69.8

51.7

51.8

50.6

51.2

53.9

38,032

38,395

41,083

42,840

44,395

66.7

67.2

68.4

70.9

74.6

1,844

1,616

1,517

1,471

1,453

69.3

68.1

67.7

68.4

70.9

Isle of Man Italy Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania

16.9

15.1

14.3

15.0

18.0

2,499

2,345

2,181

2,096

2,080

67.6

67.0

68.5

71.5

Luxembourg

309

366

419

480

547

80.9

83.8

85.2

87.4

89.1

Malta

325

359

388

405

413

90.4

92.4

94.7

96.0

96.6

Monaco Montenegro

100.0

282

387

384

394

417

48.0

58.5

61.5

62.4

65.7

147

State of the Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cities 2012/2013

Table 5 Urban Population and Urbanization by Country, 1990-2030 Urban Population (â&#x20AC;&#x2122;000) Country Netherlands

Level of urbanization (%)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

10,270

12,222

13,799

14,824

15,501

68.7

76.8

82.9

86.5

88.6

Norway

3,052

3,411

3,856

4,297

4,700

72.0

76.1

79.4

82.6

85.2

Poland

23,351

23,719

23,187

23,135

23,481

61.3

61.7

61.0

61.7

64.9

Portugal

4,782

5,563

6,515

7,148

7,585

47.9

54.4

60.7

66.4

71.4

Republic of Moldova Romania Russian Federation

2,041

1,828

1,679

1,833

1,938

46.8

44.6

47.0

54.2

60.9

12,350

11,734

12,177

12,839

13,296

53.2

53.0

57.5

63.0

68.2

108,670

107,582

102,702

100,892

99,153

73.4

73.2

74.5

76.9

90.4

93.4

94.1

94.4

94.9

San Marino Serbia

4,822

5,369

5,525

5,871

6,252

50.4

53.0

56.1

60.0

64.8

Slovakia

2,969

3,025

2,975

3,031

3,168

56.5

56.2

55.0

55.7

59.2

Slovenia Spain Sweden

971

1,008

1,002

1,035

1,110

50.4

50.8

49.5

50.4

54.5

29,266

30,707

35,073

38,542

40,774

75.4

76.3

77.4

79.4

81.9

7,112

7,445

7,870

8,333

8,799

83.1

84.0

84.7

85.8

87.3

Switzerland

4,914

5,268

5,591

5,922

6,336

73.2

73.3

73.6

75.2

77.8

TFYR Macedonia

1,103

1,194

1,212

1,260

1,331

57.8

59.4

59.3

61.6

66.0

Ukraine

34,435

32,814

31,252

30,860

30,243

66.8

67.1

68.8

71.9

75.3

United Kingdom

44,726

46,331

49,295

53,001

56,901

78.1

78.7

79.6

81.4

83.7 100.0

Latin America and the Caribbean Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Aruba

100.0

35.4

32.1

30.3

32.5

38.4

28,268

33,291

37,572

41,554

44,726

87.0

90.1

92.4

93.8

94.6

50.3

46.7

46.9

48.8

52.5

Bahamas

204

250

291

331

367

79.8

82.0

84.1

86.1

87.9

Barbados

114

134

151

32.7

38.3

44.5

51.1

57.9

Belize

120

164

213

268

47.5

47.8

52.2

56.9

62.3

Bolivia

3,707

5,143

6,675

8,265

9,799

55.6

61.8

66.5

71.0

75.2

110,565

141,416

169,098

187,104

197,874

73.9

81.2

86.5

89.5

91.1

37.8

39.4

41.0

45.2

51.6 100.0

Brazil British Virgin Islands

100.0

Chile

Cayman Islands

10,984

13,252

15,251

16,958

18,247

83.3

85.9

89.0

91.0

92.3

Colombia

22,670

28,666

34,758

40,800

46,357

68.3

72.1

75.1

78.0

81.0

Costa Rica

1,560

2,321

2,989

3,643

4,259

50.7

59.0

64.4

69.4

73.9

Cuba

7,767

8,382

8,429

8,462

8,550

73.4

75.6

75.2

75.6

77.6

67.7

67.2

69.4

73.1

Dominican Republic

Dominica

4,072

5,452

7,074

8,560

9,793

55.2

61.7

69.2

74.8

78.8

Ecuador

5,662

7,423

9,222

11,152

12,813

55.1

60.3

66.9

72.5

76.8

El Salvador

2,624

3,503

3,983

4,583

5,287

49.2

58.9

64.3

69.3

73.7

74.2

67.6

73.6

78.2

81.6

French Guiana

124

177

229

288

74.5

75.1

76.4

78.6

81.4

Grenada

33.4

35.9

39.3

44.5

51.2

Falkland Islands (Malvinas)

Guadeloupe Guatemala Guyana Haiti

381

422

460

476

485

98.6

98.4

98.5

98.6

3,664

5,068

7,111

9,893

13,153

41.1

45.1

49.5

54.7

60.6

222

217

218

233

265

29.6

28.7

28.6

31.3

37.2

2,026

3,079

5,307

7,546

9,450

28.5

35.6

52.1

64.4

71.6

Honduras

1,983

2,832

3,930

5,263

6,656

40.5

45.5

51.6

57.6

63.4

Jamaica

1,169

1,330

1,420

1,521

1,660

49.4

51.8

52.0

53.7

57.8

Martinique Mexico

310

345

362

370

376

86.3

89.7

89.0

89.1

90.0

59,566

74,372

86,113

96,558

105,300

71.4

74.7

77.8

80.7

83.3

148

Statistical Annex

Table 5 Urban Population and Urbanization by Country, 1990-2030 Urban Population (’000) Country Montserrat Netherlands Antilles

1990

2000

2010

Level of urbanization (%)

2020

2030

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

12.5

11.0

14.3

16.9

21.6

163

187

199

200

85.6

90.2

93.2

94.7

95.5

Nicaragua

2,166

2,792

3,337

4,077

4,860

52.3

54.7

57.3

61.0

65.8

Panama

1,300

1,941

2,624

3,233

3,751

53.9

65.8

74.8

80.3

83.6

Paraguay Peru Puerto Rico Saint Kitts and Nevis

2,069

2,960

3,972

5,051

6,102

48.7

55.3

61.5

67.1

71.9

15,004

18,994

22,688

26,389

29,902

68.9

73.0

76.9

80.3

83.0

2,546

3,614

3,949

4,112

4,178

72.2

94.6

98.8

99.5

99.6

34.6

32.8

32.4

35.4

41.6

Saint Lucia

29.3

28.0

30.6

36.1

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

41.4

45.2

49.3

54.6

60.7

Suriname

244

303

364

418

466

60.0

64.9

69.4

73.5

77.3

Trinidad and Tobago

104

140

186

250

328

8.5

10.8

13.9

18.1

23.7

74.3

84.6

93.3

96.5

97.4

Turks and Caicos Islands United States Virgin Islands Uruguay Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

101

104

102

87.7

92.6

95.3

96.5

97.0

2,767

3,033

3,119

3,264

3,382

89.0

91.3

92.5

93.4

94.3

16,638

21,940

27,113

31,755

35,588

84.3

89.9

93.4

95.0

95.8 100.0

Northern America Bermuda Canada Greenland Saint Pierre and Miquelon United States of America

100.0

21,214

24,389

27,309

30,426

33,680

76.6

79.5

80.6

82.0

84.0

79.7

81.6

84.2

86.5

88.4

88.9

89.1

90.6

91.8

92.8

191,914

227,651

261,375

293,732

321,698

75.3

79.1

82.3

84.9

87.0

Oceania American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji

80.9

88.8

93.0

94.8

95.6

14,596

16,710

19,169

21,459

23,566

85.4

87.2

89.1

90.6

91.9

57.7

65.2

75.3

81.4

84.9

301

384

443

501

566

41.6

47.9

51.9

56.4

61.7

French Polynesia

109

124

140

160

186

55.9

52.4

51.4

52.7

56.6

Guam

122

144

168

188

208

90.8

93.1

93.2

93.5

94.2

Kiribati

35.0

43.0

43.9

46.5

51.7

Marshall Islands

65.1

68.4

71.8

75.3

78.8

Micronesia (Fed. States of)

25.8

22.3

22.7

25.1

30.3

100.0

Nauru New Caledonia

102

127

146

169

200

59.5

59.2

57.4

58.5

62.7

2,869

3,314

3,710

4,058

4,382

84.7

85.7

86.2

86.9

88.1

30.9

33.1

37.5

43.0

49.4

Northern Mariana Islands

111

89.7

90.2

91.3

92.4

93.3

Palau

69.6

70.0

83.4

89.6

92.0

619

711

863

1,194

1,828

15.0

13.2

12.5

14.1

18.2

New Zealand Niue

Papua New Guinea Pitcairn

—

Samoa

21.2

22.0

20.2

20.5

24.0 29.2

Solomon Islands

152

230

13.7

15.7

18.6

23.0

Tokelau

—

Tonga

22.7

23.0

23.4

25.6

30.4

Tuvalu

40.7

46.0

50.4

55.6

61.5

Vanuatu

140

18.7

21.7

25.6

31.0

38.0

Wallis and Futuna Islands

—

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2010) World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, United Nations, New York.

149

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IN F R A S T R U C T U R E

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