Table 8: Clarence Valley population projections

5.1.8 Population projections

Profile.id estimates Clarence Valley resident population will increase from around 51,775 in 2020 to 60,735 persons by 2041. This represents a growth of around 9,000 persons or an annual growth rate of about 0.76% over the 21-year period. For reference the historical annual growth rate for the previous ten years was about 0.14%. To support this higher population growth, additional and improved access to retail, commercial, urban services and employment opportunism will be required.

Table 8: Clarence Valley population projections Age cohort 2020 2021 2031 2041 Change 2020-41 % change 2020-41

0-4 2,702 2,679 2,837 2,950 248 9%

5-14 15-49 50-59 60-69

5,992 5,976 6,267 6,561 569 17,558 18,584 19,961 20,922 3,364 7,409 7,384 7,378 7,754 345 8,352 8,483 8,510 8,815 463

9% 19% 5% 6%

70-84 8,115 8,327 10,170 10,993 2,878

35% 85+ 1,645 1,677 2,353 2,739 1,094 67%

Total 51,773 53,110 57,476 60,734 8,961 17%

Source: Profile.id April 2021

Clarence Valley’s population is forecast to continue to experience ‘ageing’ with an additional 3,970 residents aged 70 years and over, or about 44% of the additional population Despite this ’ageing’, residents aged between 15 and 49 years are projected to increase by around 3,365 persons or 38% of the net growth. While residents aged 50 to 69 years are only forecast to comprise about 9% of the projected growth. Increased employment opportunities for the wide range of ages and experience levels anticipated in the future Clarence Valley community will be crucial in ensuring an economically viable and sustainable Clarence Valley. Employment lands will play an important role in ensuring the opportunity and diversity of jobs for this future working population. For example, applying the 2016 labour force participation rate to the forecast number of residents over 15 years between 2020 and2041, it is estimated that around 3,715 additional residents would be in the labour force (working or unemployed looking for work). At Clarence Valley’s current containment rate of these additional residents in the labour force, around 3,230 would seek employment in Clarence Valley. The LAGs employment land would provide a significant role in accommodating these jobs.

5.2 Employment characteristics

Employment refers to persons aged 15 years and over working in Clarence Valley LGA regardless of their place of usual residence.

5.2.1 Terminology

In line with the Greater Sydney Commission’s (GSC) employment categories, in some sections in this chapter and preceding chapters, employment industries have been aggregated into four broad industry codes (BICs). These

are based on the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) 1-Digit categories.45 These four BICs are as follows:

 Knowledge intensive: Information, Media and Telecommunications; Financial and Insurance Services;

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; and Public

Administration and Safety  Health and education: Education; Health Care; and Social Assistance  Population serving: Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Arts and Recreation Services;

Construction; Administrative and Support Services and Other Services  Industrial: Agriculture; Forestry and Fishing; Mining; Manufacturing; Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste

Services; Wholesale Trade; and Transport, Postal and Warehousing.

5.2.2 Employment

Over an 18-year period to 2019/20, the total jobs generated in Clarence Valley increased by around 2,340 or 15%, reaching a total of around 18,220 jobs. This represented an average annual compounded growth rate of 0.8% over the period which was around half the rate experienced across the North Coast (1.6%). In 2019/20, the employment profile of Clarence Valley was reflective of the wider North Coast, however with a higher proportion of agricultural, forestry and fishing and construction jobs. As of 2019/20 the top five industries by total employment were:

 Health Care and Social Assistance: 2,836 jobs (16% of employment)  Construction: 2,345 jobs (13% of employment)  Retail Trade: 2,142 jobs (12% of employment)  Accommodation and Food Services: 1,515 jobs (8% of employment)  Public Administration and Safety: 1,486 jobs (8% of employment). A closer look at the sub-industries that comprises the above broad industries highlights the following top employment industries across Clarence Valley in 2019/20:

 Public Administration and Safety: 1,486 jobs  Construction Services: 1,227 jobs  Food and Beverage Services: 1,185 jobs  Other Store-Based Retailing: 1,091 jobs  Public Administration: 941 jobs  Residential Care Services: 856 jobs  Social Assistance Services: 751 jobs  Food Retailing: 680 jobs  Medical and Other Health Care Services: 628 jobs  Hospitals: 601 jobs. Most of the above industries particularly food and beverage, retail, health and public administration would be located within Clarence Valley commercial centres. This highlights their importance for the concentration and accommodation of jobs in Clarence Valley.

45 The Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) 1-Digit industry system classifies entities based on their main business activity and is used to collect and analyse data across 19 industries