Table 28: Assumed capture of visitor expenditure by small area

Table 26: Capture of Clarence Valleys household expenditure by selected centres

Centre FG Speciality Non-food Servicesfood

Grafton town centre 34% 35% 47% 45%

South Grafton Yamba* 19% 18% 16% 17% 6% 14% 7% 15%

Maclean town centre 10% 8% 6% 8%

Remaining centres

Total

11% 10% 5%

9%

90% 89% 70% 90%

Source: HillPDA, *Yamba town centre and village combined

Applying the capture rates identified in Table 36 in Appendix B the following table provides a summary of the total estimated retail sales generated in each geographical small area under each growth scenario. Owing to the differing population estimates under each scenario, in 2021 it is estimated that between $616 million to $740 million is captured by retail centres in the LGA. This is forecast to increase by between $124 million to $213 million, reaching between $740 million to $844 million by 2041. It is estimated that almost half of household expenditure is captured by retailers in Grafton town centre.

Table 27: Total estimated retail sales by growth scenario and geographical small area ($million)

Small area Low Medium

High 2021 2031 2041 2021 2031 2041 2021 2031 2041

Angourie - Yamba 97 107 119 97 111 128 97 115 137

Ashby - Iluka - Woombah & District

10 11 13 10 12 13 11 12 14 Clarenza - South Grafton 97 106 117 97 109 122 101 119 134 Glenreagh - Lanitza - Rural South West & District 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 6 7 Grafton 301 327 356 301 335 373 306 353 397 Gulmarrad - Townsend 4 5 5 4 5 6 4 5 7 Junction Hill - Southgate & District 6 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 9 Lawrence & District 5 6 6 5 6 7 5 6 7 Maclean 60 66 73 60 68 79 60 72 85 Rural North West 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 Waterview Heights - Seelands & District 10 11 12 10 11 12 10 11 12 Wooli - Tucabia - Ulmarra & District 16 18 20 16 19 22 21 26 29

Clarence Valley LGA 616 675 740 618 695 782 632 738 844

Source: HillPDA

8.1.5 Tourist and visitor retail spend

Some level of retail sales in Clarence Valleys commercial centres would be expected to come from tourists and visitors. Tourism Research Australia estimated that there was a total of 1.2 million tourists and visitors to Clarence Valley in 2019, a 247,000 or 25% increase from 2017. Total expenditure from tourists and visitors in 2019 was $353 million. This was a $76 million increase from 2017, representing an average annual compounded growth rate of around 13%. Using Tourism Research Australia national survey data, it is possible to estimate the amount and type of expenditure directed towards retail items. Of the $353 million of expenditure in Clarence Valley, it is estimated that 43% or $152 million was retail expenditure. While of this, 16% was spent on food and groceries, 63% was speciality food spend and 21% was speciality non-food spend.

The measures implemented to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has have significant impacts upon the tourism industry. This is evident in a 28% reduction in tourism expenditure across the North Coast between 2019-2020. Up until the COVID-19 pandemic, the long-term growth in tourism expenditure across the North Coast was around 6.5% (2006-2019). However, this reduces to around 2.5% when factoring in the recent impact from COVID-19 mitigation measures (year to December 2020). This more conservative compound growth rate of 2.5% equivalent to that experienced between 2006-2020 has been applied to forecast the growth in tourism retail expenditure. The distribution of visitor expenditure to selected town centres/small areas across Clarence Valley is provide in the table below.

Table 28: Assumed capture of visitor expenditure by small area Small area % capture of visitor spend

Angourie - Yamba 30% Ashby - Iluka - Woombah & District 10% Clarenza - South Grafton 10% Grafton 30% Maclean 15% Wooli - Tucabia - Ulmarra & District 5%

Source: HillPDA

8.1.6 Demand for occupied retail space

To determine the demand for retail floorspace, target turnover rates ($/sqm of GLA, and otherwise known as Retail Turnover Densities (RTDs)) have been applied to the amount of expenditure captured by a centre across each broad retail category. The RTD rate broadly represents industry averages. Using RTDs for each of the broad retail categories, it is possible to estimate the quantity of retail floorspace likely to be demanded within each geographical small area as a result of changes in retail expenditure. In forecasting expenditure, it was assumed that real expenditure per capita on food, groceries and food services would increase at 1% per annum and non-food goods would increase at around half a per cent per annum. This generally accords with the long-term trend since 198646 . From population growth and forecast growth in jobs the following forecast of expenditure was derived. The resulting floorspace has been distributed across each commercial centre based on their audited land uses and market share. Table 29 shows how demand for occupied retail floorspace is expected to change as a result of changes in expenditure between 2021 and 2041. Over the period, Clarence Valley is expected to demand between around an additional 22,500sqm to 39,000sqm of occupied retail space. The bulk of this new floorspace will be demanded in Grafton, South Graton, Yamba town centre and Yamba Village with an additional combined 13,400 to 25,900sqm of occupied floorspace being directed to the centres as the population and tourism rates increase over the coming decades. Please note that South Graton industrial area provides an estimated 6,000sqm of retail floorspace around and along Bent Street within the South Grafton industrial precinct. This includes an estimated 2,500sqm Coles supermarket. This floorspace although not included in South Graton town centres floorspace supply, it has been deducted from its net forecast demand.

46 sourced from various data sources including ABS retail sales, population and CPI rates