Table 26: Capture of Clarence Valleys household expenditure by selected centres Centre
Speciality food
FG
Non-food
Services
Grafton town centre
34%
35%
47%
45%
South Grafton
19%
18%
6%
14%
Yamba*
16%
17%
7%
15%
Maclean town centre
10%
8%
6%
8%
Remaining centres
11%
10%
5%
9%
Total
90%
89%
70%
90%
Source: HillPDA, *Yamba town centre and village combined
Applying the capture rates identified in Table 36 in Appendix B the following table provides a summary of the total estimated retail sales generated in each geographical small area under each growth scenario. Owing to the differing population estimates under each scenario, in 2021 it is estimated that between $616 million to $740 million is captured by retail centres in the LGA. This is forecast to increase by between $124 million to $213 million, reaching between $740 million to $844 million by 2041. It is estimated that almost half of household expenditure is captured by retailers in Grafton town centre. Table 27: Total estimated retail sales by growth scenario and geographical small area ($million) Low
Medium
High
Small area
2021 2031 2041 2021 2031 2041 2021 2031 2041 Angourie - Yamba 97 107 119 97 111 128 97 115 137 Ashby - Iluka - Woombah & District 10 11 13 10 12 13 11 12 14 Clarenza - South Grafton 97 106 117 97 109 122 101 119 134 Glenreagh - Lanitza - Rural South West & District 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 6 7 Grafton 301 327 356 301 335 373 306 353 397 Gulmarrad - Townsend 4 5 5 4 5 6 4 5 7 Junction Hill - Southgate & District 6 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 9 Lawrence & District 5 6 6 5 6 7 5 6 7 Maclean 60 66 73 60 68 79 60 72 85 Rural North West 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 Waterview Heights - Seelands & District 10 11 12 10 11 12 10 11 12 Wooli - Tucabia - Ulmarra & District 16 18 20 16 19 22 21 26 29 Clarence Valley LGA 616 675 740 618 695 782 632 738 844 Source: HillPDA
8.1.5
Tourist and visitor retail spend
Some level of retail sales in Clarence Valleys commercial centres would be expected to come from tourists and visitors. Tourism Research Australia estimated that there was a total of 1.2 million tourists and visitors to Clarence Valley in 2019, a 247,000 or 25% increase from 2017. Total expenditure from tourists and visitors in 2019 was $353 million. This was a $76 million increase from 2017, representing an average annual compounded growth rate of around 13%. Using Tourism Research Australia national survey data, it is possible to estimate the amount and type of expenditure directed towards retail items. Of the $353 million of expenditure in Clarence Valley, it is estimated that 43% or $152 million was retail expenditure. While of this, 16% was spent on food and groceries, 63% was speciality food spend and 21% was speciality non-food spend.
P22016 Clarence Valley Employment Lands Background
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