Table 3: Annual median dwelling sale price growth rate 2018-21 (March quarter

(+22%), Tweed (+18%) and Richmond Tweed (+14%), as well as compared to the wider North Coast which saw a 25% increase over the last year. Clarence Valley’s 2021 median dwelling price of $665,000 is slightly less than the North Coast median of $688,000. It is noted that dwelling prices would vary across Clarence Valley with areas of higher demand and amenity having higher prices. The strategic location of Clarence Valley coupled with its comparatively higher dwelling affordability compared to other LGAs in the North Coast positions it to become an attractive place to live and capitalise on the decentralisation and remote work trends. As overseas migration returns to pre-pandemic levels this is likely to further increase population growth rates in the Clarence Valley. These new residents will require employment opportunities and access to good and services. This would increase demand and importance of employment lands across the Clarence Valley.

Table 3: Annual median dwelling sale price growth rate 2018-21 (March quarter)

LGA

Ballina Bellingen Byron Clarence Valley Coffs Harbour

Median dwelling sale price ($,000) Annual % growth in median sale price 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21

$910 $870 $885 $1,400 -4% 2% 58% $639 $577 $653 $795 -10% 13% 22% $530 $560 $595 $700 6% 6% 18%

$513 $533 $606 $665 $490 $493 $510 $630 4% 14% 10% 1% 3% 24%

Kyogle Lismore $402 $376 $405 $510 $389 $390 $414 $455 -6% 0% 8% 26% 6% 10%

Richmond Valley Tweed $292 $303 $345 $395 $288 $284 $340 $360 4% 14% 14% -1% 20% 6%

North Coast $479 $492 $549 $688 3% 12% 25%

Source: FACS rent and sales tables, prices are medians for each LGA and do not show variances across different locations within each LGA

3.0 POLICY CONTEXT

This section provides an overview of the most relevant policy directions that will influence the transition of employment land in Clarence Valley over the next 20 years.

3.1 State policies

3.1.1 North Coast Regional Plan 2036

The North Coast Regional Plan 2036 (NCRP) establishes a blueprint for the region, with the intent to guide land use planning priorities and decisions to 2036. The NCRP outlines a vision for the North Coast to be:

The best region in Australia to live, work and play thanks to its spectacular environment and vibrant communities.

To achieve the vision, the NCRP identifies four regionally focused goals including:  The most stunning environment in NSW  A thriving, interconnected economy  Vibrant and engaged communities  Great housing choice and lifestyle options. The NCRP applies in the 12 LGAs extending from the Port Macquarie LGA in the south to the Queensland border in the north. The NCRP predicts that the region’s population will increase by 76,200 persons between 2016 and 2036. Leveraging the opportunities afforded by the recently upgraded Pacific Highway is considered a key component of the North Coast’s success, assisting in establishing a network of stronger cities and centres. The NCRP identifies Grafton as a Strategic Centre and the Clarence Valley LGA as having abundant environmental assets. It cites future enhanced connectivity, through infrastructure projects like the Pacific Highway Upgrade and second Clarence River crossing, as an opportunity to encourage the development of Grafton as a transport hub. The NCRP states that the region’s strong tourism and agricultural base will be supplemented by the continued development and delivery of regional government services including justice and health facilities, with a focus on encouraging new opportunities for agribusiness and associated manufacturing and transport. Importantly, the NCRP identifies a range of areas for investigation for future employment lands. The bulk of these are located within or near to existing employment centres in Junction Hill, Clarenza, Glenugie and South Grafton. The NCRP highlights a need for Council to further investigate the suitability of these areas.

3.2 Local policies

3.2.1 Clarence Valley Local Strategic Planning Statement

The Clarence Valley Local Strategic Planning Statement (LSPS) sets the direction for land use planning in the Clarence Valley. It includes priorities and actions that build upon the priorities identified in the NCRP, particularly:  Leveraging new connectivity and infrastructure investment by emphasising tourism, export and logistics opportunities  Undertaking a planning and constraints analysis for the employment land investigation areas identified under the NCRP and any zoning, infrastructure funding, regulatory controls that need to be updated to support development

 Exploring opportunities for artisan food and drink industry developments to be located within existing business zones and centres to improve the vitality and viability of main streets, particularly in Grafton and Yamba  Exploring the development of knowledge-based industries to complement health, education and creative industries in the Grafton CBD.

3.2.2 Clarence Valley Regional Economic Development Strategy 2018

The Clarence Valley Regional Economic Development Strategy (REDS) has been prepared with a vision to:

To sustainably grow Clarence Valley’s prosperous, diverse economy specialising in tourism, agriculture, aquaculture, forestry, manufacturing and services.

The strategy was undertaken against the backdrop of a state government initiative to prepare REDS state-wide. To achieve the vision, the Clarence Valley REDS aimed to build upon the region’s unique strengths:  ‘Engines of Growth’, such as tourism, horticulture (blueberries, macadamias & sugar cane), aquaculture, forestry, marine manufacturing and logistics  ‘Business-enabling’ activities, such as tourism-connected property services, construction, utilities and financial and professional services  Internal, ‘population-serving’ industries, including health, retail and public administration. The REDS emphasises the need to expand and develop these industries through a range of strategic imperatives and infrastructure projects that are intended to meet industry needs and improve the region’s attractiveness to investment. The REDS also identifies a need to further develop the region’s key tourism attractions and precincts and grow the population and internal markets of the region. This continued prioritisation of these imperatives remains essential and will be supported by the Strategy.

3.2.3 The Clarence 2027 Community Strategic Plan

The Clarence 2027 is the Clarence Valley Council’s Community Strategic Plan (CSP), intended to identify the type of community that residents want to have in 10 years. It reflects the wider community’s aspirations and sets the broad parameters to guide Council decision making. In order to achieve Council’s vision “to make the Clarence Valley a community full of opportunity”, the CSP emphasises delivery across five key themes: Society, Infrastructure, Economy, Environment and Leadership. Of relevance to this strategy are priorities emphasising the region as a place to invest and providing land use planning that facilitates and balances economic growth, environmental protection and social equity.

3.2.4 Grafton CBD Plan and Transport Strategy (2021)

The Grafton CBD Plan and Transport Strategy aims to apply placemaking principals to the Grafton CBD to making it a successful regional city. The Grafton Precinct Plan aims to create a destination where people want to spend time by creating a place that:  Encourages small businesses to prosper  Is shady, green and cool in summer

 Encourages use of active transport such as walking and cycling  Celebrates the history and heritage of First Nations People  Has better local links and a strong connection to the waterfront. The plan includes a Transport Study, intended to improve built form, celebrate heritage and encourage businesses to prosper. It seeks to leverage the motorway bypass and other infrastructure investment. Key proposals include:  Slowing traffic along Prince Street through traffic calming elements including alternative surface treatments, widening of the footpaths and greater planting  Reconfiguration of parking to nose-in along Prince Street  Increased shade along Prince Street through arbour elements with climbing greenery and planting of more street trees  Creation of a place for people through the widening of the footpaths along Prince Street to allow for more space for pedestrians, street seating, alfresco dining and footpath trading  Opportunities to share stories and the history of the town through artworks and signage  Establishing avenues to improve the precincts greater connection and arrival from South Grafton.

3.2.5 Clarence Valley Industrial Land Bank Capability Assessment (2017)

The Clarence Valley Industrial Land Bank Capability Assessment (LBCA) was prepared with the aim of ensuring a sufficient and suitable supply of industrial land exists to meet the future industrial needs of the Clarence Valley region. The LBCA was commissioned to assess investigation areas identified under the previous region plan, the Mid North Coast Regional Strategy 2006. The LBCA included a constraints and servicing analysis for each possible expansion area, identifying the volume of useable land:  Pillar Valley, in close proximity to the Grafton Airport and Pacific Highway interchange (180 hectares useable)  South Grafton adjacent to Alipou Creek (52 hectares useable)  South Grafton, west of Armidale Road (37 hectares useable)  Koolkhan, north of Junction Hill (85 hectares useable). The 354 hectares that the LBCA identifies for investigation may not be suitable for development in its entirety. As such, in considering the supply and demand for industrial land, the Strategy will need to consider how much of the useable land identified in the LBCA remains available and unconstrained, in addition to any new areas identified under the NCRP.

3.2.6 Clarence - River Way Masterplan II (2020)

The River Way Master Plan II is an integrated market driven tourism destination initiative that builds upon an earlier iteration of the strategy published 10 years before. It includes a raft of different measures aimed at securing the environmental qualities of the Clarence River, while also enhancing its economic value for tourism and as a working waterway. The strategy aims to continue to reposition Grafton as a river city, as well as enhancing connectivity for centres throughout the lower reaches of the river and more remote locations up stream. While it is primarily a tourism strategy, it promotes related industries as maintaining the region’s identity as a working waterway, and particularly emphasising the harbour’s role as a “boutique port” and expanding waterfront industries (e.g. shipbuilding) near Yamba.

3.2.7 Clarence Valley Industrial Lands Strategy (2007)

The previous ELS prepared for Clarence Valley LGA by AEC Group in 2007. This strategy was intended to identify appropriate industrial land to ensure sufficient and suitable supply for the LGA over a 25 year horizon. It aimed to create a network of industrial precincts and locations for a range of industry types to support and enhance the economic competitiveness of the Clarence Valley. Using site selection criteria, the strategy identified three industrial land investigation areas and six key industries of strategic intent, each with potential roles and locations, respectively with projected demand in each of the LGA’s existing centres: 1. Local services 2. General/mixed use industry 3. Heavy industry 4. Transport hub 5. Marine industry 6. Timber industry.

3.2.8 Maclean Urban Catchment Local Growth Management Strategy (2011)

The Maclean Urban Catchment Local Growth Management Strategy (LGMS) aims to provide detailed guidance on the future residential and industrial development in the Maclean urban catchment and, in particular, the preferred nature and timing of such growth to 2031. The LGMS has a stated vision of:

“Life in the Clarence Valley, now and in the future, is based on a culture of living sustainably that protects and carefully utilises the natural environment, its beauty and resources, our cultural heritage and unique identity of our valley and its communities.”

The LGMS achieves its vision through a range of key strategic priorities, predominantly focussing on the future character and pattern of settlement, which are used to identify suitable growth areas and timing for infrastructure and enabling works to enable growth commensurate with the LGMS’s 2031 target. Predominantly focussing of future residential growth, the only future employment land identified under the strategy is located at Townsend, which it describes as follows:

“Townsend provides the only practical ability for development of additional industrial / employment land within the catchment, with a further 9 hectares of land being suitable at the eastern end of the village. Townsend will also provide for development of local open space facilities, capable of servicing its own growth and future urban growth at Gulmarrad.”

The LGMS identifies the development of the Townsend employment land as critical to providing urban services and other supports for proposed residential growth areas under the LGMS. Furthermore, the study recommended the exploration of potential integration of some dwellings within the future industrial development under a live/work arrangement.

4.0 MARKET TRENDS AND CONSIDERATIONS

The following section discusses the emerging broader industry trends and potential implications on employment precincts in Clarence Valley LGA.

4.1 Industrial market trends and considerations

4.1.1 Macro-economic context

Globalisation Automation Information technology

The demand for industrial floorspace in Australia continues to be influenced by the globalisation of trade, labour and production costs, the increasing dominance of information technology in production processes and access to primary goods.

4.1.2 Globalisation

The demand for industrial floorspace is influenced by trends such as globalisation and the use of information technology. The globalised economy comprises sophisticated linkages between businesses, which are adept in the efficient sharing of information and the delivery of goods through a global supply chain. This supply chain, once thought of as the flow of goods through production to the end user, is now seen as an alignment of firms that design, develop, market and produce goods and services, and deliver them to the customer when needed. Globalisation and the free movement of people, goods and services have increased the amount of competition and have resulted in a decline in the proportion of jobs within manufacturing industries. Industrial floorspace used primarily for business related storage is in secular decline, whereas space built for the transferral of goods is increasing. This ‘high throughput distribution’ space is essentially designed to facilitate the rapid movement of goods through the supply chain. Businesses with low inventory turnover are gravitating to inexpensive land and low-cost buildings. In contrast, businesses that have high inventory turnover and high value products, and typically provide value added functions (including product customisation, packaging and customs) are more prepared to pay a premium for excellent access to a large customer base and proximity in time and space to roads, ports and airports. As a result of the industrial trends described above, over the last thirty-six years, the development of industrial land and floorspace in NSW has generally occurred at a rate slower than employment growth. This, however, has varied considerably between specific sectors of activity. Employment in manufacturing and wholesale trade has steadily decreased over the period (overall employment down 22% and 21% respectively). In contrast to this pattern has been the performance of transport and storage, which have shown strong growth with a 53,000 or 33% increase in employment. This is partly a result of increased demand for ‘last mile’ delivery and storage spaces close to where customers reside.