Nigeria The men who would be president
Abubakar Bukola Saraki
Atiku Abubakar
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THE AFRICA REPORT
ETHIOPIA
MONTHLY • N° 104 • OCTOBER 2018
The Abiy Moment It’s not just Ethiopia: Abiy’s breakneck reforms will transform the region
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The Abiy
effect Ethiopia
Ethiopia is changing in the blink of an eye thanks to its new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. The Africa Report takes a look at the man and his impact on politics, economics and the wider East African region Tom Gardner in Addis Ababa, William Davison and Nicholas Norbrook
I
n a short few months, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has upended the canons of Ethiopian politics, diplomacy and business. He has closed a prison, opened the economy and ended a war. In his religious oratorical style and his pledges of unity and democracy, he recalls former US president Barack Obama. Through his youth and reforming zeal, he shares similarities with France’s President Emmanuel Macron. It is hard to point to an African peer. “Difference is not a curse,” Abiy told parliament during his maiden speech in April of this year. “In argument, solutions will be found.” In a country where the government often put members of the political opposition in jail, this is a revolution. Over the past three years, thousands ofpoliticalopponentsweresilenced;now Abiy has promised free and open competition in elections planned for 2020.
He has a long way to get there, and he needs the cooperation of his peers in the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). In the youngest continent, which suffers from having the oldest presidents, a 42-year-old leader is a strong signal. But it is one thing to talk about Africa’s ‘youth bulge’ in the abstract; it is another to actually govern millions of young people. Ethiopia’s youth want to see the new government create jobs, support innovation and foster debate – not just in the capital, Addis Ababa. Abiy has a chance to tweak the model that took Ethiopia from the famine-hit 1990s to its present-day strength. If he can marry the state-backed development that has delivered high growth to an open and vibrant private sector, he might just create a blueprint for other African countries: one that goes beyond the dead-end of authoritarianism and
MULUGETA AYENE/AP/SIPA
On 23 June, Ethiopians rallied in their thousands to show support for Abiy’s reforms
26 FRONTLINE | ETHIOPIA: THE ABIY EFFECT
HEALING A NATION
This fresh dynamic has helped Eritrea solve its own conflict with Djibouti. Even the South Sudan peace process has received a lift. Cairo and Khartoum are on board, for now. Suddenly, the possibilities of a genuinely integrated Afro-Gulf region seem alive. It is at home in Ethiopia, however, that the real possibilities lie. First, in avoiding the politics of fracture that had experts worrying about a Yugoslaviastyle scenario. In asking forgiveness of the families of individuals who were broken by state security forces, Abiy is starting to push the kind of healing seen in South Africa’s post-apartheid Truth and Reconciliation Commission. And second, in restructuring the economy. It can be hard to fathom how the country has become a juggernaut. In 2017, Ethiopia overtook Kenya as East Africa’s largest economy. Ethiopia’s trajectory takes the breath away. It grew tenfold in less than 15 years, from a gross domestic product of $8bn in 2003 to $80bn in 2015. By 2020, it should be a $100bn economy, with more than 100 million people. But Ethiopia’s old model is running out of steam. The opening up of its relatively protected economy could provide the investment needed to reboot it. In so doing, this could reshape the business dynamics of the region for the next decade. There are potholes to be negotiated: disgruntled elements from the old order, Emirati impetuousness and the rekindling of ethno-nationalist differences, for example. But there is also a chance for real change in Addis Ababa, in the country’s restive Somali region, and N.N. beyond Ethiopia’s borders.
Abiy Ahmed
The path to power
Ethiopia’s first Oromo prime minister rode to high office on a wave of popular discontent. Is he the Machiavellian his rise suggests, or the unifying democrat outlined in his speeches?
P
rime Minister Ahmed Abiy said He later became acting director of the Information Network Security in his first speech to parliament: Agency (INSA), the national cyber“Ethiopia is a country of fertile womb. It has produced many children security agency he had helped to that strive relentlessly out of a great establish. After leaving the army in spirit of love for the country.” his early 30s, he re-joined the OPDO. He had someone in mind. Soon after He became a member of the federal he became prime minister, Abiy was parliament and then briefly served as revealed as the author of The Stirrup science and technology minister in and the Throne, written in 2016 under the cabinet of former prime minister a pseudonym. The book shows the Hailemariam Desalegn, who resigned in February after long spates of viofuture Ethiopian leader meditating on lent protests and clashes in Oromia power – he cites Machiavelli, among and other regions. others – and how to acquire it. Abiy certainly has a hard-work BACK TO BASE ethic. The speed and ambition of In 2016, Abiy returned to his home his reforms have caught potential region of Oromia to become regionopponents off guard, not having time to coalesce before the next big change al vice-president. His critics argue is upon them. that during this period he and his Prime Minister Abiy is deeply close colleague, regional president ambitious. His meteoric rise to Lemma Megersa, took advantage of anti-government sentiment in Oromia the summit of the ruling EPRDF to reposition themselves as populists. coalition may have taken outsiders by surprise, but those who knew the Abiy’s supporters argue that both men thrusting 42-year-old from the Oromo genuinely sympathise with the grievPeoples’ Democratic ances of young Oromos, Organization (OPDO) many of whom were flung into prison during were far from shocked. Hailemariam’s rule. They And former colleagues point to Abiy’s doctorate recall him openly sayEthnic conflicts, in conflict resolution and ing he would become including in West Guji violent extremism from prime minister many and Gedeo, have Addis Ababa University years ago. produced almost 1.4 in 2017 as evidence Abiy had been workmillion new displaced ing his way up the greasy that he cares about the people in the first pole of EPRDF politics six months of 2018 region’s problems. In for decades. He says any case, both he and Lemma became enormously popular he joined the OPDO as a teenager, over the course of 2017, catapulting when it was still a rebel movement them into the spotlight. advancing on Addis Ababa in 1991. He later joined the national army, In 2018, soon after Hailemariam’s serving under Tigrayan generals and resignation, Abiy was elevated to forming connections with influential chairmanship of the OPDO in order members of the Tigrayan People’s to contest the top job in Addis Ababa. Liberation Front (TPLF), the most Lemma, who is not a member of the federal parliament, was ineligible. On powerful force in politics from 1991 27 March, Abiy convincingly won an until Abiy took office.
1.4m
SOURCE: IDMC
which offers genuine opportunities for shared growth. But while there is much to be said for the soft power of example, Abiy is also at the centre of a tectonic shift in hard power intheHornofAfricaandthewiderregion. Ethiopia holds a key position in East Africa’s 21st-century power dynamics, as competing Gulf powers try to yoke neighbouring Eritrea into proxy wars in Yemen, and China and the US are quietly measuring each other up in Djibouti. With adept diplomacy, Abiy has defused conflicts with neighbours. For the first time in 20 years, an Ethiopian ship docked at an Eritrean port and regular flights between the two countries have started, all of which was unthinkable a few months ago.
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internal EPRDF vote to become chairman of the coalition and, by extension, prime minister. Explaining Abiy’s rise to the top, Georgetown University’s Harry Verhoeven comments: “This is a brilliant but highly ruthless operator.”
Tasked with reform: Abiy’s appointees
Since then, two words – democracy and medemer (Amharic for ‘unity’ or, more literally, ‘to add together’) – have become the themes of Abiy’s premiership. If there is one philosophy Abiy professes to be genuinely committed to, it is multiparty democracy. He said clearly: “My dream and interest is to bring real democracy to Ethiopia.” Despite coming to power on a wave of Oromo ethnic nationalism, his repeated use of the word medemer is an indication that Abiy – a polyglot of Christian and Muslim heritage – wants to be seen as a unifier of Ethiopia’s fractured Fitsum Arega ethnic politics. It also To keep the trains running reveals a distinctly reon time in his office, Abiy has chosen an age-mate, Fitsum ligious rhetorical style, Arega, as chief of staff. Happily setting him apart from enough for investors, Fitsum his predecessors. knows Ethiopia’s private sector Although the EPRDF inside out, having previously headed Ethiopia’s Investment ran a one-party state, Commission. He has become not everyone is supthe gatekeeper for acces portive of the changes Seare Mekonnen Ambachew Mekonnen to the Premier, as well as his Abiy promises. A bomb mouthpiece, using his Twitter Bringing in his own man With stuttering exports, Ethiopia account to deliver Abiy’s views. exploded at a pro-Abiy as military chief of staff was needs to focus its state-driven essential for Abiy. In addition, model on delivery. The rally in Addis Ababa’s Seare Mekonnen is Tigrayan, new minister of industry, Meskel Square on 23 June, which the helping assuage fears in the Ambachew Mekonnen, has government has since linked to former north. Whether he can manage that task. A rising star in the officials. Investigations are ongoing. His the current rising insecurity Amhara ANDM party, Ambachew levels is another question. says that Ethiopia exported ability to manage the security services Brutal attacks in recent weeks $488m in manufacturing goods is being closely watched by observers. on different communities such in 2017/2018, only half of its Lemma remains Abiy’s closest confias the Somalis in the East, and target. His goals are to jumpstart dant and ally. The two are often together on the outskirts of Addis Ababa, electricity production and will test the ability of the army. logistics to make up ground. at official events, even travelling abroad side by side. Lemma is a crucial link to “from the bottom of my heart”, for all Abiy’s Oromo base. listening tour of the country, holding the lives broken on the torturers’ racks. Another key figure is chief of staff rallies and town-hall-style meetings But, despite Abiy’s liberal and outFitsum Arega, former head of the in key cities and towns – notably in wardly democratic stance, many criticise Ethiopian Investment Commission, the Somali Region, a strong sign that his top-down governing style. All key and now his gatekeeper and de facto he wants to mend fences between the decisions appear to come from the spokesman. An important new appointOromo and Somali communities (see ment points again towards Abiy’s liberal prime minister’s office alone. He makes TAR101, June 2018). leanings: Mamo Mihretu, a HarvardAbiy’s government has shut down the announcements on Twitter through his chief of staff and rarely speaks to the educated former project manager at notorious Maekelawi prison in the capmedia. With so much promised by just ital and launched prosecutions against the World Bank, is now his chief trade some prison officials for their roles in one man, avoiding a cult of personality negotiator and a senior policy adviser. torturing prisoners. In his swearing-in will be Abiy’s next challenge. Abiy’s inclusive style is not just rhetTom Gardner in Addis Ababa speech as prime minister he apologised oric. Upon taking office, he went on a THE AFRICA REPORT
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SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES; ALL RIGHTS RESERVED; FDRE; TWITTER/ EUINETHIOPIA
REAL DEMOCRACY
JIRO OSE/REDUX-REA
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Could privatising state-owned enterprises prove to be the cash cow Ethiopia needs?
Economy
The state goes to market
A re-jig of Ethiopia’s developmental-state model will create more room for the private sector and bring in much-needed capital
P
SOURCE: IMF
rime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ecoplants and a vast fertiliser complex, with nomic views were largely a mystery private companies expected to take over. when he took office in April. An “WhathashappenedinEthiopiahasbeen Abiy premiership, it appeared, would remarkable,” Belachew Mekuria, head of the Ethiopian Investment Commission leave the commanding heights of the so(EIC), told The Africa Report before his called ‘developmental state’ untouched. But in June, he announced plans that resignation on 11 September. “We are, were radical and unexpected. Statein a way, rewriting our developmental owned telecoms, power and the national model in a very significant manner.” airline are all set to open to foreign invesThat is a bold undertaking. Over tors for the first time. Railways, sugar facthe past decade, the government’s tories, industrial parks, hotels and some ETHIOPIA’S RAPID GDP RISE ($bn) manufacturing firms will also be partially or fully privatised. In September, the government lifted restrictions on the 85.66 logistics sector, opening it up for joint 80.87 ventures with foreign companies. 73.15 Abiy has also moved to end the dom64.68 inance of the state-owned Metals and Engineering Corporation (Metec), a 55.51 47.66 military-industrial conglomerate that has 43.13 played a crucial role in many of the coun32.46 31.96 try’s megaprojects over the past decade. The government cancelled or suspended 29.92 huge contracts for the construction of the GrandEthiopianRenaissanceDam,sugar 2009 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018
development model has delivered gross domestic product (GDP) growth of around 10% per year – the fastest and most consistent rate in Africa. Poverty fell by a third between 2000 and 2011, according to the World Bank. The next step, says World Bank Ethiopia director Guangzhe Chen, is the development of a vibrant private sector. “The public investment rate of Ethiopia is the third highest in the world, while the private investment rate is the sixth lowest,” Chen told reporters. Thatcouldbeaproblem.TheEthiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front’s (EPRDF) ideology has never been static, but mistrust of the private sector runs deep. The state-centred economics of Meles Zenawi, leader of the EPRDF until his death in 2012, have long enjoyed broad-based support among Ethiopian elites, more so than the party’s authoritarian politics. Privatisation, especially of the highly profitable flag carrier, Ethiopian Airlines,isperhapsthemostcontroversial aspect of Abiy’s agenda.
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Many economists, however, regard In August, Abiy announced that the a degree of liberalisation as necessary. World Bank had agreed to provide $1bn Ethiopia’s modelincreasinglyseems to be in budget support in the coming months, its first since it suspended budgetary running out of steam. Most of the government’s targets look wildly unattainable help after a disputed and violent election in 2005. This came two months after – especially those for manufacturing, the United Arab Emirates pledged to such as 200,000 new jobs per year. The country needs to raise more than deposit $1bn in Ethiopia’s central bank to ease the foreign-currency shortage. $13bn over the next two years, according Nemera G. Mamo, an to Yinager Dessie, governor of the central bank. The economist atQueenMary’s International Monetary University, London, says he doubts that the reform Fund (IMF) reckons that agenda amounts to a fix for this year growth will slow Ethiopian public debt Ethiopia’s troubled econoto 8.5%, and exports have as a percentage my. “Nothing is clear about barely grown over the of GDP at end 2017. what Abiy is trying to do,” past five years. Most is in foreign Nemera says. “We are yet Public debt has reached currency, which almost 60% of GDP, most to see what his strategy is.” is in short supply. of which is in foreign curIn the short term, privatisation is expected to bring in some rency. This year has seen defaults on Chinese loans, and businesses of all much-needed foreign exchange, not least because the government has said stripes have been suffering from an the majority of shares will be offered to acute shortage of hard currency. At the meeting with business leaders in April, non-Ethiopian investors. Reducing the number of new government projects, Abiy warned that without a substantially which it has also promised, may also improved export outlook, the pain might last for another 15 to 20 years. free up scarce capital. Many of the state-owned enterprises established to achieve the government’s five-year goals – notably the Ethiopian SugarCorporation–aremiredindebtand project delays. Some megaprojects, such as a Chinese-built railway connecting Addis Ababa with Djibouti, are operating under capacity. “There are some serious problemswiththemachineryoftheeconomy,” says Tewodros Gebrewolde of the International Growth Centre. SOURCE: IMF
57%
But besides Ethio Telecom and Ethiopian Airlines – which for now only plans to sell subsidiary assets such as its hotels, airports and logistic arm – interest may be weak in other areas. Many investors are put off by Ethiopia’s capital controls and Byzantine bureaucracy. They are also tracking the fate of the Ethiopian-born business baron Sheikh Al Amoudi, who was recently detained in SaudiArabiaoncorruptioncharges.Since Abiy took charge, his company Midroc’s largest gold licence was suspended, and some of his properties in Addis Ababa have been threatened with repossession. So does an Abiy premiership spell the end of the developmental state? Many Ethiopians argue that what is emerging is fundamentally different to Meles’ vision. But others say the developmental state is simply evolving. “People have forgotten that the state invested in the economy not to stay in it forever,” says Henok Assefa, chief executive of Precise Consult. “Indefinite state ownership was never on the table – but people got used to it.” Tom Gardner in Addis Ababa
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GIOIA FORSTER/DPA/ABACA
TELCOMS READY TO POUNCE
But previous red lines are being crossed every day in the new Ethiopia. For example, to help assuage Ethiopia Electric Power’s debts the electricity ministry has proposed a fourfold rise in tariffs, now awaiting ratification by the cabinet. The financial sector has seen a mild softening of regulations affecting private banks. And, while the previous central bank leadership considered stock exchanges as akin to legalised gambling, Yinager seems more likely to accelerate changes. Foreign investors have welcomed Abiy’s announcements. Telecoms operators, in particular, have been enthused by the prospect of a stake in Africa’s last big telecoms monopoly. Germany’s Deutsche Telekom has expressed interest in a joint venture, as have South African groups MTN and Vodacom.
Delays at hydro projects have been blamed on Metec failures
Metec Big shake-up for industrial vanguard ONE OF ABIY’S first decisions in power was to shake up the board of Metec, the militaryindustrial conglomerate that Ethiopia was betting on to be the leading edge of its industrialisation policy. And Metec was set up to succeed; it was given big budgets
and big contracts in the sugar and electicity sectors. In a nod to best practice from other ‘developmental states’ like South Korea, it had former army officers in charge to avoid corruption from eating into effectiveness. It didn’t work. General Kinfe Dagnew ‘resigned’
in April, and new industry minister Ambachew Mekonnen was installed as chairman. Three of Metec’s sugar factory contracts have been cancelled and a fertiliser factory is under review. It will now be split into two parts – defence and commercial. N.N.
30 FRONTLINE | ETHIOPIA: THE ABIY EFFECT
Politics
Solving a fractured ethnic puzzle
Security and navigating the complex web of ethnic politics will dominate Abiy’s first years in office as he tries to bring unity to the diverse country a leadership challenge improbable. Instead, the coalition may well fragment further as each party turns to its region. This is certainly the case for the TPLF, which has refocused at home under the leadership of Debretsion Gebremichael. Paramount for the TPLF is the case of Eritrea, with many members aghast at the rehabilitation of President Isaias. But both the party and the Tigrayan people are torn, as renewed trade and an end to border militarisation are welcome. SURGE IN VIOLENCE
groups who are ‘conflict entrepreneurs’. We have no doubt about that,” said Abiy at his first press conference. Whether this destabilisation is by design or a function of the dismantlement of the security apparatus is unclear. Abiy has placed his own men at chief of army staff and intelligence; they now need to bring the military to heel. In some
“There are organised groups who are ‘conflict entrepreneurs’. We have no doubt about that ”
“Our struggle will come to an end only when we create a country where the youth live without fear ”
Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed
Patriotic Ginbot 7 secretary general Andargachew Tsege
AFRICA LIVE CAPTURE
Across the country, there has been a surge in communal and mob violence, including killings of Tigrayans, as well as likely assassinations. This follows a widespread belief that remnants of the TPLF-led regime are trying to derail Abiy’s reforms. Although there is no hard evidence, there is a likelihood that networks previously controlled by the likes of spy chief Getachew Assefa are causing problems. “There are organised
YONAS TADESSE/AFP
B
y inviting back exiled oppositionists, releasing prisoners and opening the political space for media and civil society, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has upended two decades of repressive rule. Celebrations break out during his whistle-stop tours both at home and visiting the diaspora. “This is the most promising opportunity to install a democratic order in Ethiopia, and we should all work together to make it a success”, Oromo opposition leader Leenco Lata tells The Africa Report. But detectable beneath the euphoria is asteadyrumble.Muchofthiscomesfrom the far north, as the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has seen its dominance of the EPRDF evaporate. The TPLF has even been sidelined as the new prime minister made historic steps towards peace with its fellow Tigrinya speakers across the border in Eritrea. Abiy’s ascendancy was the first major shock to the TPLF system, but more was to come. He accelerated political amnesties and said that torture had been systemic. Many took this as an official indictment of TPLF rule. The upshot of Abiy’s approach was an undermining of the coalition that he chairs and that has ruled since 1991. The EPRDF was engineered by the TPLF, which also formed a new military from the fighters who unseated the Derg military regime. The party was influential in erecting a system of federalism based on ethno-linguistic communities and propagating the quasi-Marxist approach of ‘revolutionary democracy’. All of that is now under threat – and Abiy has said he wants elections by 2020, further ratcheting up the tension. The immediate challenge for Abiy is establishing a consensus within the EPRDF. Given his popular support, he has considerable power, which makes
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After a 2016 brutal crackdown on protesters the Oromo gesture of defiance went viral
ABIY’S OLIVE BRANCH
While Abiy has tackled domestic malcontents,hehasalsoextendedanolivebranch tomostformerenemiesoftheEPRDFand announced his intentions for all groups to participate peacefully in elections in 2020. This has been successful so far, with the return of organisations like Patriotic THE AFRICA REPORT
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Ginbot 7 and OLF splinter groups including Lata’s Oromo Democratic Front, the positive response of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, a Somali insurgency, and the homecomings of high-profile activists like Jawar Mohammed and Tamagn Beyene. The ambitious Prime Minister seems sincere in his intention to oversee rapid and full democratisation, but the route to get there is tortuous. His most substantive step so far is an ongoing effort to reform a repressive anti-terrorism law and restrictive civil society legislation, along with hazier efforts to improve judicial
ETHIOPIA’S ETHNIC GROUPS (2007 estimates) Oromo Amhara Somali Tigray Sidama Gurage Wolayta Hadiya Afar Gamo Gedeo Silt'e Kafficho other
8.8%
34.4%
1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.3%
SOURCE: CIA WORLD FACTBOOK
instances, it seems a relative security vacuum is being exploited, as with recent mobilising by an OLF faction in western Oromia and growing vigilantism. The Sidama people’s renewed push to secede from the Southern Region again suggests that some actors are using the opening to advance their own claims. Another flashpoint has been Somali Region, whose tyrannical chief administrator, Abdi Mohamed Omar, was backed by TPLF elements and who was a major protagonist in serious ongoing conflict in the Oromia-Somali borderlands (see TAR101, June 2018). Abiy ordered the military to remove Abdi, in a move many classed as unconstitutional. Somali Region’s new leaderis an activist, Mustafa Muhamud Omer, which is an indicator of Abiy’s bold and breezy strategy for edging out of this transitional crisis.
ALBIN LOHR-JONES/PACIFIC PRESS/LIGHTROCKET VIA GETTY IMAGES
independence and media freedom. This should allow more of the advocacy and activism needed to create the environment for competitive elections. A diverse set of parties seem content with the political opening and united in their pleasure at the TPLF’s diminishment. But the enmity between , ; some opposition groups is as strong as their objections to the TPLF/EPRDF system. Most acute is the argument over identity politics and multinational federalism, which provides autonomy for ethnic communities and erects administrative boundaries between them.
2.5% 4% 6.1% 6.2%
27%
COMPROMISE NEEDED
While ethnic parties like the OLF see it as a vital system for ensuring Oromo autonomy, others such as Berhanu Nega’s Ginbot 7 view it as a segregating tool of the TPLF that was used by that minority’s leaders to divide and rule. For oppositionist Leenco Lata, there is something of the Cold War’s logic of mutually assured destruction in all the competing views. “If political actors really feel responsible, they have no choice but to negotiate a compromise”, he says, “or else the alternative is a total breakdown of order, which we should try and avoid at all costs.” Given Abiy’s intention for the EPRDF’s one-party rule to end, these are also relevant questions for the Front’s member parties. To succeed in a competitive environment, Abiy’s Oromo OPDO will have to find a balance between exercising federal power and bringing the country together, all the while outflanking the OLF. Until Abiy and Lemma Megersa’s double act, for example, the party was derided as a pawn of the TPLF. The challengeispossiblygreaterfor the AmharaNationalDemocraticMovement, which is as discredited as the OPDO was before its revival. Its younger leaders are tacking towards a more ethno-nationalist position, a stance that disturbs other Ethiopians. Before the TPLF took charge in the early 1990s, Amharic-speaking elites were viewed as oppressors of the Oromo and other ethnicities. There is little doubt that the TPLF’s losses mean gains for others and a generally more vibrant, hopeful phase for Ethiopian politics. But the demise of the most powerful party and its authoritarian ways by no means resolves all of the outstanding disputes in a complex, diverse and troubled federation. William Davison
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“People can air their views about politics freely ” Goitom Gebreluel, adviser at ILPI Centre for African Studies “Abiy has already delivered quite a lot. He’s already taken very important steps towards neutralising the old security establishment, essentially the TPLF, which is an extraordinary achievement. It required a great deal of courage to confront that group of people and he did that successfully. He’s also been able to liberalise a great deal of the political space, which is another important and significant achievement: the fact that people can air their views about politics freely – even the TPLF, which is pretty much still intact and is able to criticise Abiy and his government. Finally, he’s been able to bring together very divergent and contradictory political forces that we never thought could actually sit together and hammer out deals – such as the OLF, Ginbot 7 and Isaias Afwerki – while even maintaining a role for the TPLF. It’s a very difficult balancing act. There are a lot of things that could have been done better but I don’t think we should underestimate those achievements. Because no one has done that before. My main criticism is that he seems to be departing from both the revolutionary democracy and the developmental state paradigms of the EPRDF and he’s taken steps towards liberalisation of both the economy and the political sphere — all of which is good – but we don’t have a very coherent, substantive, ideological framework to deal with it now. And in a country like Ethiopia I think that’s important. So the question is: what is the EPRDF under Abiy Ahmed? We don’t know that yet.”
“His most difficult problem will come from the Oromo ” Hassen Hussein, member of the Oromo Democratic Front “What Abiy has done over the past five months has been remarkable – nothing short of miraculous. He has infused hope in the populace, helped a lot in reducing tensions between different communities. He has unified the country in a manner that is
unprecedented. He has shown people the path forward, people are happy with what he is doing. He has instituted vital and concrete reforms long in demand by the public, and implemented changes that were unthinkable only months ago.
In just six months Abiy Ahmed has made sweeping reforms towards liberalising and unifying his country, but is this progress sustainable? Three Ethiopians reflect on his record so far
Question Is Abiy on the right track?
I see Abiy as someone who has done his homework, as somebody who came to the job fully prepared, with really clear ideas. What he is doing is exactly the things he had been talking about before assuming the position. However, since transforming Ethiopia takes more than Abiy, in terms of surrounding himself with like-minded people, I think he has a lot of work to do. Governing Ethiopia has never been easy. There are a lot of voices and a lot of groups, mostly at odds with each other. He is trying to bridge that, and in a divided society making everybody happy is the most
difficult – almost impossible – task. So far he has been able to pull it off, which is an extraordinary achievement. Some of the problems are structural: it will take a miracle to create employment for this many youth. It will never happen overnight. How do you do that, at the same time as having a highly politicised youth, with demands and grievances? But for me I think his most difficult problem will come from the Oromo. Years, decades, centuries of builtup grievance: how to meet their demands without alienating his other important coalition partners? I think that will be the most difficult task for Abiy.”
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KARIM SAHIB/AFP
A visit to the Emirates and a peace deal signed
The region An Afro-Gulf renaissance
“It’s time for him to come up with a concrete strategy ”
New agreements with African and Arab neighbours should help Ethiopia better integrate into global trade
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he sight of Eritrea’s President – which in February nationalised the Isaias Afwerki all smiles and 800,000-container-a-year Doraleh Port built and operated by the UAE’s DP arm-in-arm with Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in July was a turnWorld – pulls in multiple players. Some 90% of Ethiopian exports and imports ing point. It opens up potential for a new regional dynamic with Arab neighbours transit through Djibouti, while China is also building new ports there. and creates an opportunity to isolate the militants wreaking havoc in Somalia. A The Isaias-Abiy peace also revealed peace dividend – Ethiopia and Eritrea some tough realpolitik. Emirati ruler were in conflict since 1998 – should allow Mohammed bin Zayed is using the governments to prioritise development Eritrean port of Assab to prosecute a war over security, and open new routes to in Yemen, as well as building another global trade for landlocked Ethiopia. port in Somaliland. Bin Zayed was crucial to the Eritrea-Ethiopia mediation, The détente also illustrates the extreme geopolitical pressures that agreeing to inject $3bn into run through the Horn of the Ethiopian economy a Africa. Ethiopia plays a few days before the peace deal was signed. key role in the balance of However it gets there, rival powers. Ever since the Aid and investment Suez Canal was carved out Ethiopia could use the shot in Ethiopia pledged in the arm that diversifyof Egyptian soil in 1869, the by Abu Dhabi crown Red Sea and Gulf of Aden ing its ports will provide. prince Mohammed Exports have flatlined dehave been a strategic choke bin Zayed, smoothing point for global powers. spite muchhype around an the ground for the Abiy-Isaias peace deal export-driven renaissance. Today,thoseincludeheavyweights like the US and By diversifying its routes China and a multiplicity of competing through Eritrea, new projects become viable. A port planned by Eritrea in the Gulf players: Turkey and Qatar on one Bay of Anfile will help Danakali to export side, and Saudi Arabia and the United from its $320m Eritrean mining project; Arab Emirates (UAE) on the other. fertiliser giant Yara may also be able to There are billions of dollars at stake, use it for its $700m Ethiopian potash and the slightest missteps could quickly change the dynamic. For example, a mine on the other side of the border. Nicholas Norbrook dispute between the UAE and Djibouti SOURCE: GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA
“I think the question is whether he is realistic in his approach. He is trying to to bring together very different ideological, ethnic and religious disparities. Much has been invested over the past few decades in those differences, and some have been exploited by political entrepreneurs. But they are also based on genuine political questions: about the way power has been distributed among Ethiopians. So we need to ask whether Abiy’s approach to reconciliation – a very smooth and fluffy, almost pastoral approach – is the right one to employ. I think reconciliation is much-needed, but at the same time he needs to properly use the power of the state to maintain security. If that security is threatened it will immediately jeopardise his project of reconciliation. He is a very different kind of politician, a very peculiar politician, and that struck the right chord with Ethiopians in all corners. But now the euphoria is dying down and people are waking up to a much ruder reality. I think it’s about time for him to come up with a concrete strategy, if he has one. In some ways he might be playing it safe for the next couple of years until the election, avoiding tricky questions like the constitution and ethnic federalism. If he gets elected with a mandate then maybe he will come up with something more definitive. In the meantime he is trying to handle a very complex country, and we need to understand that.”
THE 3 QUESTION PICTURES: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Mohammed Girma, lecturer, London School of Theology
$3bn