Demand from luxury brands drives up rents in Shinsaibashi, Kyoto, and Kobe
y o y Jul. to Sep. y o y Jul. to Sep. q o q ±0.0%
q o qm o m
Starting this quarter (Q3 2022), vacancy rate surveys will no longer be restricted to ground floor properties for which tenant demand is highest, but will instead cover all units for lease, including those on the ground floor.
+ 1.3pts
Ginza High Street Vacancy Rate **** Q3
Ginza High Street Rent **** Q3
Source: *Ministryof Economy, Trade and Industry
**Japan Department Stores Association ***Japanese Cabinet Office ****CBRE
━ Tokyo: The high street vacancy rate in Tokyo’s Ginza area rose by 1.3 points q o q to 7.7% in Q3 2022, mainly due to a vacancy of a relatively large unit following the closure of the pop-up store. Ginza high street rents remained unchanged for the fourth straight quarter at JPY 241,500 per tsubo per month. While several luxury goods brands were seen to be waiting for an opportunity to open new stores in high street areas, available properties in prime high street locations are becoming fewer in number.
━ Osaka: The high street vacancy rate in Osaka’s Shinsaibashi area fell by 2.5 points q-o-q to 14.0% this quarter on the back of tenants being confirmed for multiple properties in the Shinsaibashi suji shopping district. High street rents in Shinsaibashi rose by 7.0% from the previous quarter to JPY 152,000 per tsubo. During the quarter, a newly completed property on Mido suji drew interest from multiple luxury brands, despite its above market asking rent.
━ Nagoya: The high street vacancy rate in Nagoya’s Sakae area rose by 0.4 points q o q to 0.4% in Q3 2022. While one unit became available following the termination of a pop up store’s lease, interest in the property was registered from multiple retailers. Sakae high street rents remained unchanged from the previous quarter at JPY 70,000 per tsubo. Although a comparatively large property attracted some interest from sporting goods brands and other retailers, prospective tenants remained unwilling to pay above market rates.
JPY/tsubo
Prime Rent High Street Rent
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022
1 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% MARKETVIEW | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022 + 3.6% Retail Sales* + 17.1% Department store sales** -1.7pts Consumer confidence index*** Sep. 2022
Ginza Omotesando
Harajuku Shinjuku Shibuya Shinsaibashi Kyoto Kobe Sakae Tenjin
Figure 1: High street vacancy (upper graph) & prime rent/high street rents (lower graph) in Q3 2022 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
Economy
Department store sales increased double-digit y-o-y
National department stores‘ sales in July September 2022 increased by 17.1% y o y. In addition to a rebound from the previous year when the businesses were restricted due to the declaration of a
of emergency and other factors, sales of summer goods in July and autumn goods in September were strong. Sales of watches and jewellery also remained strong as in the previous
By customer, inbound sales in September increased 204 0% y o y Inbound sales are expected to continue to increase as a result of the lifting of border restrictions.
the other hand, the consumer confidence index for September 2022 decreased by 1.7 points m
to 30.8. In addition to rising prices of commodities and other goods, consumer sentiment cooled slightly in reaction to August, when consumption was brisk due to the summer holidays.
Inbound
2 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
Q3
state
quarter
On
o m
Figure 3:
Retail
Sales &
Department
Store
Sales Source:
Datastream Japan Department Stores Association, METI, CBRE, Q3 2022.
Figure 4: Number of
Tourists in Japan Source: Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), CBRE, Q3 2022. 8.6 6.2 8.4 10.4 13.4 19.7 24 28.7 31.2 31.9 4.1 0.2 0.2 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Jan to Sep 2021 Jan to Sep 2022 million 20 25 30 35 40 45 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: Datastream CAO, CBRE, Q3 2022. Figure 2: Consumer Confidence Index -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 Department Store Sales (RHS) Retail Sales y o y % y o y % 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022
Tokyo: Ginza
Several luxury brands confirmed as tenants for new properties
The high street vacancy rate for Q3 2022 rose by 1 3 points from the previous quarter to reach 7 7% This was mainly due to a vacancy of a relatively large unit following the closure of the pop up store
Although Ginza high street rents remained unchanged for the fourth straight quarter at JPY 241,500 they are projected to rise by 0.6% in Q4 2022 While several luxury goods brands are waiting for an opportunity to open new stores in high street areas, available properties in prime high street locations are becoming fewer in number. Competition between these retailers is therefore anticipated to push up Ginza high street rents in Q4 2022. With rents projected to rise by 3.3% over the next two years, they are forecast to have recovered by the end of that period to a level which would represent a net decrease of just 3.3% from Q4 2019 prior to the onset of the COVID 19 pandemic
Several new developments in the high street area of Chuo dori either secured luxury goods brands as their tenants or attracted interest from them this quarter Final rent levels appear to be at or even above the landlords’ asking rates While some of these brands had no prior street facing presence in the Ginza area, others are relocating from existing premises in order to improve location or expand floor space One brand even secured a property not yet due for completion for several years Also this quarter, luxury goods brands expressed interest in pre existing properties in high street locations Other properties attracted increased retailer attention by dividing available floor space into multiple units Elsewhere, multiple available units in a property on the Namiki dori high street were secured by retailers without a street level presence in the Ginza area, at the landlords’ asking rates.
At the same time, several relatively large properties in high street areas failed to generate much enthusiasm from retailers this quarter. While some landlords are beginning to show flexibility by lowering asking rents or subdividing available units, significant gaps remain between what they are asking and what retailers are willing to pay.
Available properties in the secondary areas of Nishi Gobangai and Gasutou dori drew interest from retailers in Q3 2022, including high end wristwatch sellers. However, retailer interest is weak in comparatively large units or those spread across several floors, due to their low floor efficiency and difficulties they create for operations
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022.
Forecast
3 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022 ▶
238,000 239,000 240,000 241,000 242,000 243,000 244,000 245,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Q3
2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy RateVacancy Rate High Street Rent
Figure 6: Ginza high street rent (JPY/tsubo)
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022. 230,000 235,000 240,000 245,000 250,000 255,000 260,000 265,000 270,000 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024
Figure 5: High street vacancy rate & high street rent in Ginza (JPY/tsubo)
Tokyo: Omotesando/Harajuku
Demand from luxury brands concentrated on the Omotesando high street
The high street vacancy rate for Q3 2022 fell by 0 3 points from the previous quarter to 4 9%, as several relatively large units confirmed new tenants
High street rents for Omotesando and Harajuku remained unchanged from the previous quarter at JPY 183,800 per tsubo. During the quarter, a unit in a particularly prized location on the Omotesando high street attracted interest from multiple retailers, including those in the luxury sector. An available property on Miyuki dori, which had previously struggled to attract retailers, saw interest from multiple prospective occupiers, before eventually securing a new tenant at the landlord’s desired rent levels, but only after changing the layout of the available unit. Elsewhere, multiple sporting goods brands were seen competing for an available property on Meiji dori. However, another large property struggled to attract interest from retailers, largely due to its high asking rent, which is significantly above the market rate.
During the quarter, an available property with excellent visibility in the secondary area of Kotto dori attracted bids from a number of retailers without a current street level presence in the Omotesando district A different property on the same street, meanwhile, drew less interest due to its slightly low ceilings and poorer visibility
Tokyo: Shinjuku
Larger properties struggle to attract retailer interest
high street vacancy rate for Q3 2022 remained unchanged at 6.6%, with both new vacancy and
taken up were relatively small units of less than 50 tsubo each
high street rents remained unchanged for the third straight quarter at JPY 170 000 per tsubo
relatively large property on the Shinjuku dori high street drew tenders from several retailers, on the condition that it be subdivided into smaller units Another property on the same street saw leasing progress stagnate, with lacklustre retailer interest due to its comparatively large size and operational inefficiency caused by the unit being split across multiple floors While demand for store space, particularly in high street areas, was observed from a broad spectrum of industries including luxury goods, sporting brands, fashion and entertainment, very few properties are available that match retailers’ needs in terms of location, floor area and lease conditions
In secondary areas, several retailers were forced to close their doors this quarter due to flagging sales. Elsewhere, a property featuring a sub optimal internal layout attracted some interest, but had yet to sign a new tenant at the time of writing.
4 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
Figure 8: High street vacancy rate &
high
street rent in Shinjuku (JPY/tsubo)
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022.
Figure 7:
High street vacancy rate & high street rent
in
Omotesando/Harajuku
(JPY/tsubo)
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022. 166,000 168,000 170,000 172,000 174,000 176,000 178,000 180,000 182,000 184,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy RateVacancy Rate High Street Rent 166,000 168,000 170,000 172,000 174,000 176,000 178,000 180,000 182,000 184,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy RateVacancy Rate High Street Rent
The
spaces
Shinjuku
One
Tokyo: Shibuya
Several retailers considering opening stores even at above- market rents
The high street vacancy rate for Q3 2022 fell by 2 2 points q o q to 2 7%, on the back of a new tenant being secured for a large property of around 200 tsubo
Shibuya high street rents rose by 0.8% from the previous quarter to JPY 127,800 per tsubo. During the quarter, a sporting goods brand without a street level presence in the Shibuya area was seen to be considering making an above-market tender for a relatively large property available on Inokashira dori. With several other retailers also indicating a willingness to pay above current market rates, high street rents increased this quarter. Also in Q3 2022, a relatively large unit on Koen dori was being considered as a new store location by a fashion brand, but the prospective deal did not manage to reach the negotiation phase by the end of the quarter Meanwhile, leasing at another available property on Bunkamura dori is taking some time, primarily due to its somewhat awkward layout.
Poor floor efficiency as a result of unit layout also proved an obstacle for a new development in a secondary area At the same time, however, an agreement was signed for a unit some distance from the station but near a large shopping facility, by a retailer wishing to open their first store in the Shibuya area Elsewhere within the Shibuya area, relocation demand was noted as a result of rebuilding of existing premises or upgrading to superior locations
CBRE Research,
Q3 2022.
5 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022 0 10 20 30 40 50 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 Ginza Omotesando Harajuku Shinjuku Shibuya Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Figure 9: High street vacancy rate & high street rent in Shibuya (JPY/tsubo) Source: CBRE, Q3 2022. 120,000 122,000 124,000 126,000 128,000 130,000 132,000 134,000 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy RateVacancy Rate High Street Rent Figure 11: Number of new store openings by sector* *The data covers five areas, including Ginza, Omotesando, Harajuku, Shinjuku, and Shibuya Source: CBRE Research, company press releases and media reports CBRE, Q3 2022. Figure 10: Number of new store openings by location Source:
company press releases and media reports CBRE,
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Fashion Luxury F&B Outdoors&Sports Health&Beauty Drug Store Furniture&Goods Showroom Reuse Other
Figure 12: Key Store Openings in Tokyo Q3 2022
Tenant Area Street Name Size* (approx tsubo) Building Name
Artnature GINZA Suzuran dori N/A Ginza Folie Versace GINZA Harumi-dori 100 Ginza Shippo Building
POP MART OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU Meiji dori 30 N/A
Yogibo OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU Meiji dori 90 J 6 Building
AMIRI OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU Kusunoki dori 60 Cinnamon
UNIQLO SHINJUKU Meiji dori 220 Shinjuku Bunka Building
LENS List SHIBUYA Bunkamura dori N/A Shibuya T Building
au SHIBUYA Koen dori 15 Shibuya Modi
*Information in the above table are limited to those available on press releases, media reports, and other public domain. CBRE estimates are not included.
Source: CBRE, company press releases and media reports, Q3 2022.
Figure 13: Upcoming Retail Developments in Tokyo (GFA of 1,000 tsubo or more)
Name Area GFA (approx tsubo) Developer Open
(Tentative) Minami Aoyama 3 Chome Project
OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 4,500 Mitsubishi Estate Feb. 2023 TOKYU Kabukicho Tower SHINJUKU 26,500 Tokyu Corporation, Tokyu Recreation Apr. 2023
(Tentative) Jingumae 6 chome Redevelopment
OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 6,000 Tokyu Land Corporation Aug. 2023 dogenzaka dori SHIBUYA 12,700 Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation Sep. 2023 Shibuya station Sakuragaoka area Redevelopment
SHIBUYA 76,800 Tokyu Land Corporation Nov. 2023 Seiho Building Development Plan
OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 5,300 Seiho Building, Urban Renaissance Agency Feb. 2024 (Tentative) Harajuku Quest Development Plan
OMOTESANDO/HARAJUKU 2,700 NTT Urban Development 2025 (Tentative) Ginza Building Development Plan GINZA 2,600 Hulic Aug. 2025 (Tentative) Nishi Shinjuku 1 chome area Project
SHINJUKU 29,300 Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Company Nov. 2025
Shibuya Upper West Project SHIBUYA 35,400 Tokyu Corporation, Tokyu department store FY2027 SHIBUYA SCRAMBLE SQUARE (Second term) SHIBUYA 29,000 Tokyu Corporation Mar. 2028
Note: Floor area may contain non retail spaces. Source: CBRE, company press releases and media report, Q3 2022.
6 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
Kansai: Shinsaibashi
Luxury brands secure new premises at rents significantly above-market rates
high street vacancy rate in Osaka’s Shinsaibashi area fell by 2 5 points q o q to 14 0%, on the back of tenants being confirmed for multiple properties in the Shinsaibashi suji shopping district
Shinsaibashi high street rents rose by 7.0% q o q to JPY 152,000 per tsubo in Q3 2022. During the quarter, a newly completed property on the Mido suji high street attracted interest from tenants, despite its above-market asking rent. Demand was also observed from multiple luxury brands for store space, particularly on Mido suji. With vacancy remaining low, some cases were observed involving several potential tenants competing for a single unit.
During the quarter, the owner of a property in the Shinsaibashi suji shopping district secured a new tenant by lowering the asking rent to meet the tenant’s expectations In general, however, vacancies in the district remain widespread, forcing some landlords to sign shorter leases of three to five years at lower rents that meet retailers’ desired levels Several other owners are looking to use this low demand window to proceed with rebuilding plans Both strategies are predicated on the understanding that the rental market rate will rise once inbound tourist demand returns to pre pandemic levels
Also this quarter, a shoe brand that recently opened its first store in Japan secured premises for another store in the secondary area of America mura at rent levels roughly commensurate to the owner’s asking rate Within the same America mura district, however, vacancies appeared as a result of foreign brands exiting the Japanese market Other activity included an available property on Nagahori dori receiving a tender from a service retailer.
Kansai: Umeda
High street rents remain unchanged amid limited retailer activity
Umeda high street rents remained unchanged in Q3 2022 from the previous quarter at JPY 94,500 per tsubo While some demand was observed for showrooms or merchandise retail, no new stores opened as a result of limited street level vacancies Prospective tenants remained unwilling to pay above market rates
In the secondary area of Chayamachi, an on site service industry operator opened a new store, its first in the Kansai region. The retailer appears to have prioritised a high-visibility location in order to raise brand awareness. An amusement arcade also opened its doors in a secondary area to the south of JR Osaka Station. At the same time, however, several other available properties have now stood vacant for some time, with retailer interest underwhelming due to above market asking rents.
During the quarter, the Hankyu Hanshin Group announced the establishment of a project team for the Shibata 1 Chome Project, incorporating the rebuilding of the Osaka Shin Hankyu Hotel and the Hankyu Terminal Building, as well as the complete refurbishment of Hankyu Umeda Sanbangai. The second large scale construction project in the Umeda area after the Umekita 2nd Project, this development represents a major opportunity to make the Umeda area more attractive to both retailers and consumers
7 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
Figure 14: High street vacancy rate & high street rent in Shinsaibashi (JPY/tsubo)
Source: CBRE, Q3
2022.
136,000 138,000 140,000 142,000 144,000 146,000 148,000 150,000 152,000 154,000 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
High
Street Rent
The
Kansai: Kyoto
High street rents rise on the back of new store openings and high demand
The high street vacancy rate for Q3 2022 dropped by 1 7 points q o q to 6 8%, as several relatively large properties confirmed new tenants
Kyoto high street rents for the quarter rose by 5 4% to JPY 68,500 per tsubo on the back of strong demand from major retailers with robust financial resources, and the re evaluation of the area as a result of the establishment of new luxury brand stores. During the quarter, a high-end wristwatch brand moved from its location within a department store to an available property in the high street area of Shijo dori, while another property on the same street secured a merchandise retailer as its new tenant Both contracts are estimated to have been signed at the landlord’s asking rates.
Meanwhile, a property in the secondary area of Karasumasu dori has now stood vacant for some time, with its relatively large floor area resulting in large sum of rent payment proving a stumbling block to potential tenants. Elsewhere, a retailer looking to move to a superior location was seen to be considering taking an available property on Higashinotoin dori
15:
CBRE, Q3 2022.
Kyoto (JPY/tsubo)
Kansai: Kobe
Demand from luxury brands drives high street rents upward
The high street vacancy rate for Q3 2022 fell by 1 4 points q o q to 7 5% in Q3 2022, largely as a result of the confirmation of a tenant for a 100 tsubo plus property and the opening of several new stores in Sannomiya Center gai
Kobe high street rents for the quarter increased by 10.7% to JPY 80,000 per tsubo due to demand from multiple luxury brands for store space in the Former Foreign Settlement area. During the quarter, a luxury brand store opened in the Former Foreign Settlement high street area, while another available property in the same area drew interest from multiple retailers after being subdivided to keep total rents at a level that could attract prospective tenants Also this quarter, an available property on the Ayukawa suji high street was secured by a sporting goods brand. As was the case in the previous quarter, luxury goods brands opened new stores in both the new Kobe Hankyu building and in nearby street facing units.
Other activity in Q3 2022 included one available property in the secondary area of the Former Foreign Settlement district confirming a high end wristwatch brand as its new tenant, at the landlord’s asking rent
CBRE, Q3 2022.
8 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
Source:
Source:
64,000 66,000 68,000 70,000 72,000 74,000 76,000 78,000 80,000 82,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy RateVacancy Rate High Street Rent Figure
High street vacancy rate & high street rent in
64,000 66,000 68,000 70,000 72,000 74,000 76,000 78,000 80,000 82,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy RateVacancy Rate High Street Rent Figure 16: High street vacancy rate & high street rent in Kobe (JPY/tsubo)
Nagoya: Sakae
Multiple retailers display demand for new high street stores
The high street vacancy rate in Nagoya’s Sakae area edged up by 0 4 points q o q to 0 4% in Q4 2022 While one unit came available following the termination of a pop up store’s lease, multiple retailers have already expressed an interest in the location
Sakae high street rents remained unchanged from the previous quarter at JPY 70,000 per tsubo. During the quarter, a larger property on the Otsu-dori high street attracted some interest from sporting goods and apparel brands, offering rents slightly below those paid by the current tenant. Demand is concentrated on Otsu dori from luxury goods, high end wristwatch and jewellery brands, including both those without a street level presence in the Sakae area and those looking to upgrade to a superior location. Also this quarter, an available property on Hirokoji dori drew tenders from retailers including an overseas car dealership and a pet store, including at least one looking for a second retail location in the Sakae area to take advantage of positive sales numbers.
An available property in the secondary area of Isemachi dori, meanwhile, attracted little interest due to its slightly above market asking rent However, as the unit is of a convenient 50 tsubo size, several retailers are likely to be interested, provided the rent is lowered to market levels
Fukuoka: Tenjin
High street rents remain unchanged for fourth straight quarter
The high street vacancy rate for Q3 2022 fell by 0 7 points from the previous quarter to 4 5%, as a result of the absorption of a relatively large vacancy
Tenjin high street rents remained unchanged for the fourth straight quarter at JPY 46,500. While several properties have now stood vacant for some time, landlords have yet to lower asking rents. Multiple properties on the Tenjin Nishi-dori high street have remained vacant for a significant period, with owners’ asking rents all above market rates, and initial costs including capital investment also discouraging tenants. Also this quarter, an available property on the Shinganrincho dori high street secured an amusement arcade as its new tenant, at a rent level slightly below what the landlord originally wanted, but equivalent to the market rate.
Several new stores were opened in secondary areas in Q3 2022 including a fitness facility and eateries on Kokutai doro, while an apparel brand announced it would open its first Fukuoka outlet on Konyamachi Higashi dori
9 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022.Source: CBRE, Q3 2022. 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy RateVacancy Rate High Street Rent 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 High Street Rent Vacancy RateVacancy Rate High Street Rent Figure 18: High street vacancy rate & high street rent in TenjinFigure 17: High street vacancy rate & high street rent in Sakae
Tenant Area Street Name Size* (approx tsubo)
Building Name
SUMITOMO LIFE INSURANCE UMEDA Umeda Kitano 120 Urban Terrace Chayamachi
NEW ERA SHINSAIBASHI Shinsaibashi suji N/A Nagai Building
TISSOT SHINSAIBASHI Shinsaibashi suji N/A N/A
Clarks SHINSAIBASHI Europe dori 35 Oshio America mura Building
ARC'TERYX KYOTO Shijo dori 55 Kyoto Daiya Building
ROLEX KYOTO Shijo dori N/A Hotelforza Kyotoshijokawaramachi
CELINE KOBE Flower road N/A Kobe Hankyu
BOTTEGA VENETA KOBE Flower road N/A Kobe Hankyu
Herman Miller SAKAE Iriecho dori N/A TOSHIN SAKAE Building
G SHOCK SAKAE Hirokoji dori 35 Maruei Galleria
Aesop TENJIN Tenjin Nishi dori N/A FUNDES Tenjin Nishi dori
*Information in the above table are limited to those available on press releases, media reports, and other public domain. CBRE estimates are not included.
Source: CBRE, company press releases and media reports, Q3 2022.
Figure 20: Upcoming Retail Developments in Kansai, Nagoya and Fukuoka (GFA of 1,000 tsubo or more)
Name Area GFA (approx tsubo)
Developer Open
Chunichi Building SAKAE 34,000 The Chunichi Shimbun, Chunichi Building Spring 2024 (Tentative) Umeda 3 Chome Plan UMEDA 69,000 Japan Post Holdings, West Japan Railway Company, etc. Mar. 2024 (Tentative) Umekita Phase 2 Development Project UMEDA 169,000 ORIX Real Estate Corporation, Hankyu Railway, etc. Aug. 2024 Osaka Station New Station Building (Tentative) UMEDA 17,800 Osaka Terminal Building Fall 2024 (Tentative) Hulic Fukuoka Building Redevelopment TENJIN 6,300 Hulic Sep. 2024 Fukubiru Urban Area Redevelopment Project TENJIN 44,000 Nishi Nippon Railroad Dec. 2024 (Tentative) Tenjin 1 chome North 14bangaiku Building TENJIN 11,900 Nippon Life Insurance, SEKISUI HOUSE Mar. 2025 (Tentative) Sumitomoseimei Fukuoka Bldg・Nishi dori Business Center Redevelopment
TENJIN 12,700 SUMITOMO LIFE INSURANCE, FUKUOKA JISHO May. 2025 (Tentative) Shinsaibashi Project SHINSAIBASHI 14,000 Hulic, Takenaka, JR WEST REAL ESTATE & DEVELOPMENT, PARCO Feb. 2026 Effective utilization of land for Nishiki 3 chome 25 bangai ku SAKAE 33,200 Nagoya city, PARCO, Mitsubishi Estate, etc. Summer 2026 Kumoidori 5 chome area Redevepolment Project KOBE 29,800 Kobe city, Mitsubishi estate, Mitsubishi Logistics, TC KOBELCO REAL ESTATE, etc. FY 2027
JR Sannomiya New Station Building development Project KOBE 30,300 West Japan Railway Company, Urban Renaissance Agency, Kobe city FY 2029
Note: Floor area may contain non retail spaces.
Source: CBRE, company press releases and media report, Q3 2022.
10 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
Figure 19: Key Store Openings in Kansai, Nagoya and Fukuoka Q3 2022
Q3
Ginza 7 4 % 6 5 %
Tokyo
%
Kansai
Omotesando/Harajuku 4. 2% 5 . 1 %
%
.
Shibuya 2 5 % 2 7 % 9
.
. 2 % 4 9% Shinjuku 4 . 1 % 5 . 2 %
%
% 4 9% 2 7 %
Shinsaibashi 14.3% 14 8% 17 1 % 16 5% 14 . 0 %
Kyoto 7 . 3 % 6. 8% 8.
8 . 5 % 6 8%
Kobe 7 5 % 6 6% 8 2 % 8 9% 7 5 %
Nagoya Sakae 0 0% 0 0% 0 4% 0.0% 0 . 4% Fukuoka Tenjin 1 . 6 % 3 . 6 % 5.0% 5 . 2 % 4. 5 %
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022.
Figure 22: Area Traffic Volume (Q3 2022)
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
Ginza 15% +
Omotesando/Harajuku
Tokyo
Shinjuku
Shibuya
Shinsaibashi
Kansai
Kyoto
Kobe
Nagoya Sakae
Fukuoka Tenjin 14%
* Aggregation of “au” smartphone users with individual consent, processed so that individuals cannot be identified.
Source: Giken Shoji International “KDDI Location Analyzer*” CBRE, Q3 2022.
* The numbers may have changed for the past data due to accuracy improvements of KDDI Location Analyzer data
Tokyo
Shinsaibashi 141,000 141,000 142,000 142,000 152,000 Umeda 95,000 94,000 95,000 94,500 94,500
Ginza 241,500 241,500 241,500 241,500 241,500 Omotesando/Harajuku 173,800 173,800 177,800 183,800 183,800 Shinjuku 172,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 Shibuya 126,800 126,800 126,800 126,800 127,800 Kansai
Kyoto 65,500 64,500 65,500 65,000 68,500 Kobe 71,000 72,000 73,000 72,300 80,000 Nagoya Sakae 70,500 70,500 70,500 70,000 70,000 Fukuoka Tenjin 46,500 46,500 46,500 46,500 46,500
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022.
Figure 24: Prime Rent (JPY / Tsubo / Month)
Tokyo
Ginza 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
Omotesando/Harajuku 300,000 300,000 320,000 350,000 350,000 Shinjuku 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 Shibuya 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000
Shinsaibashi 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 300,000
Umeda 140,000 140,000 140,000 130,000 130,000
Kansai
Kyoto 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 100,000
Kobe 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 150,000 Nagoya Sakae 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Fukuoka Tenjin 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000
Source: CBRE, Q3 2022.
11 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022
6 4% 6 4% 7 7
5
1
5
6
2
6. 6% 6 6%
1
6%
Figure 21: Vacancy Rate
5%
12% ±0%
9% +10%
5% +15%
8% +2%
6% +16%
6% +6%
5% +8%
8%
Figure 23: High Street Rent (JPY / Tsubo / Month)
Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022
Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022
Terms and Definitions
Subject Area
Vacancy Rate
• Vacancy rate cover all units for lease, including those on the ground floor in the high street areas assigned by CBRE
• Tokyo Ginza 156 properties, Omotesando/Harajuku: 238 properties, Shinjku: 59 properties, Shibuya: 66 properties
• Kansai Shinsaibashi: 179 properties, Kyoto: 176 properties, Kobe: 108 properties
• Nagoya Sakae: 53 properties
• Fukuoka Tenjin: 203 properties
Prime rent/ High Street Rent
• Ground floor retail space for lease located in retail markets in the high street areas assigned by CBRE with floor area of approx. 200 square meters.
Area Traffic Volume • The retail market areas assigned by CBRE
Term Quarterly Q1) End of March Q2) End of June Q3) End of September Q4) End of December
Vacancy Rate
Prime rent
• Physically available for tenants at the time of survey
• Based on sample survey of the subject area, including CAM, and excluding any incentive such as free rent
• Rents for prime areas within the main retail districts in major cities
Survey method
High Street Rent
• Average of the upper rents and lower rents based on sample survey of the subject area, including CAM, and excluding any incentive such as free rent
Area Traffic Volume • y o y and q o q % changes of traffic volume in the subject area Hiroshi Okubo Head of Research hiroshi.okubo@cbre.co.jp
Kaoru Kurisu Director kaoru.kurisu@cbre.co.jp
Kumiko Ninomiya Analyst kumiko.ninomiya@cbre.co.jp
Tokyo
Meiji Yasuda Seimei Building 2 1 1 Marunouchi, Chiyoda ku
Tokyo Shiba Park
Shiba Park Building B 2 4 1 Shibakoen, Minato ku, Tokyo Osaka Grand Front Osaka 4 20, Ofuka cho, Kita ku Osaka shi, Osaka
Yokohama
Yokohama ST Building 1 11 15 Kitasaiwai, Nishi ku, Yokohama shi, Kanagawa
Kanazawa
Aube II Building 5 177 Kuratsuki, Kanazawa shi, Ishikawa
Nagoya
Miyuki Building 3 20 27 Nishiki, Naka ku, Nagoya shi, Aichi
Sapporo
Nihon Seimei Sapporo Building 4 1 1 Kitasanjonishi, Chuo ku, Sapporo shi Hokkaido
Sendai
Sendai Mark One 1 2 3 Chuo, Aoba ku Sendai shi, Miyagi
Hiroshima Shishinyo Building 3 17 Fukuromachi, Naka ku, Hiroshima shi, Hiroshima
Fukuoka
Fukuoka Center Building 2 2 1 Hakata Ekimae, Hakata ku, Fukuoka shi, Fukuoka
© Copyright 2022 All rights reserved This report has been prepared in good faith, based on CBRE’s current anecdotal and evidence based views of the commercial real estate market Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control In addition, many of CBRE’s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances Other firms may have different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views to later be incorrect CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market circumstances later change
Nothing in this report should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the performance of any other company’s securities You should not purchase or sell securities of CBRE or any other company based on the views herein CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein, and by viewing this report, you waive all claims against CBRE as well as against CBRE’s affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or your use of the information herein
12 CBRE RESEARCH © 2022 CBRE, INC MarketView | JAPAN RETAIL | Q3 2022
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