Weekly Sport : 10th / 11th January, 2015

BETTING TIPS 10th - 11th January 2015

A Football Betting Magazine with a betting analysis of each English Premier League game.

Contents

E

ach English Premier League game has two pages including: likely starting line-ups and formation, Betting Forecast (average odds and true odds for 1X2, Double Chance and Draw No Bet markets) and Goals Analysis. The true odds allows the bettor to determine if a certain bookmaker is giving value or not and these odds (or greater) should be taken, with lesser odds being left.

The Goals Analysis gives the expected goals for each team and these are used with the Poisson Formula (see Glossary) to give a chance for each likely correct score, which in turn creates the Over/Under and Both Teams to Score markets.

Odds are given as decimal odds (European Odds format). These odds are easier for the bettor to understand than fractional odds (UK Odds format), although there is an Odds Ready Reckoner in the back of this publication.

4

Sunderland v Liverpool

6

Burnley v QPR

8

Chelsea v Newcastle United

10

Everton v Manchester City

12

Leicester City v Aston Villa

14

Swansea v West Ham United

16

WBA v Hull City

18

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur

20

Arsenal v Stoke City

22

Manchester United v Southampton

24

Odds Ready Reckoner

25

Glossary

Sunderland v Liverpool Betting Forecast Saturday 10th March, 12:45pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 4.19

Draw 3.50

Away 1.89

4.53 22.1%

3.73 26.8%

1.96 51.1%

-5.3% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

2.05 48.9%

1.37 73.2%

1.28 77.9%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

3.32 30.2%

1.43 69.8%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.36 3.78 2.08 1.93 3.79 1.36

True Chance Over Under 73.53% 26.47% 48.08% 51.92% 26.39% 73.61%

Home Away

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 1.99 2.01 50.25% 49.75%

Implied Odds True Chance

7.4% 7.4%

1-1 11.9% 11.9%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 4.8% 7.4% 3.7% 5.9% 4.8% 11.9% 9.5% 9.5%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

13.46 13.46

8.41 8.41

21.04 21.04

80.78 19.72

50.49 19.72

0-0 Home Away

Margin

13.46 8.41

26.93 10.52

16.83 10.52

Mignolet

Pantilimon

O’Shea

Vergini

3-1 2.0% 5.1%

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Jones

3-0 1.2% 5.1%

Van Aanholt

Can

Skrtel

Sakho

Cattermole Manquillo Johnson

Larsson

Gomez

Fletcher

Henderson

Lucas

Moreno

Wickham

Coutinho

Sterling

Markovic

Home Away Draw

22.1% 30.2% 69.8%

HvA

51.1%

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

26.8%

38.46%

Goals Share 61.54%

1.00

1.60

Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Home Away Total

11.9% 11.9%

ExpG 1.00 1.60 2.60

Supremacy

-0.60

11.9% 9.5%

7.4% 7.4%

9.5%

7.4% 5.9%

4.8% 4.8%

5.1% 1.2%

0-0

1-1

2-2

5.1%

3.7%

1-0

2-0

2-1

3-0

2.0%

3-1

Burnley v QPR Betting Forecast Saturday 140h March, 3pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 2.16

Draw 3.33

Away 3.44

2.25 44.5%

3.54 28.2%

3.67 27.3%

-5.4% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

1.37 72.7%

1.39 71.8%

1.80 55.5%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

1.61 62.0%

2.63 38.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.40 3.50 2.19 1.84 4.13 1.32

Home Away

True Chance Over Under 71.43% 28.57% 45.66% 54.34% 24.21% 75.79%

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 1.99 2.01 50.25% 49.75%

Implied Odds True Chance

8.2% 8.2%

1-1 12.6% 12.6%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 4.9% 11.5% 8.0% 8.8% 4.9% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

12.18 12.18

7.91 7.91

20.55 20.55

26.64 54.92

24.22 39.23

0-0 Home Away

Margin

8.70 11.07

12.43 20.14

3-0 3.8% 1.8%

11.30 14.38

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Green

Heaton

Trippier

Duff

Shackell

Arfield

Jones

Marney

Mee

Isla

Onuoha

Caulker

Hill

Vargas

Henrt

Barton

Fer

Zamora

Austin

Boyd

Barnes

Ings

3-1 4.1% 2.5%

Home Away Draw

27.3% 62.0%

38.0%

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

44.5%

HvA

28.2%

56.00%

Goals Share

1.40

44.00%

1.10

12.6% 12.6%

Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Home Away Total

ExpG 1.40 1.10 2.50

Supremacy

0.30

11.5% 9.0%

8.2% 8.2%

8.8%

8.0%

7.0% 5.0%

4.9% 4.9%

4.1%

3.8% 1.8%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

2-0

2-1

3-0

2.5%

3-1

Chelsea v Newcastle United Betting Forecast Saturday 10h March, 3pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 1.19

Draw 6.80

Away 15.27

1.22 82.3%

7.73 12.9%

20.89 4.8%

-5.3% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

1.05 95.2%

1.15 87.1%

5.64 17.7%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

1.06 94.5%

18.19 5.5%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.21 5.76 1.61 2.64 2.52 1.66

Home Away

True Chance Over Under 82.64% 17.36% 62.11% 37.89% 39.68% 60.32%

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 2.40 1.71 41.67% 58.33%

Implied Odds True Chance

4.1% 4.1%

1-1 6.4% 6.4%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 2.5% 10.6% 13.8% 8.3% 2.5% 2.4% 0.7% 1.9%

3-0 11.9% 0.1%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

24.53 24.53

15.73 15.73

40.32 40.32

8.37 681.46

13.96 262.10

0-0 Home Away

Margin

9.44 40.89

7.26 136.29

12.10 52.42

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Krul

Courtois

Ivanovic

Terry

Cahill

Fabregas

Willian

Azpilicueta

Matic

Oscar

Costa

3-1 7.2% 0.4%

Hazard

Janmaat

Coloccini

Dummett

Colback

Haidara

Ayoze Perez

Sissoko

Armstrong

Santon

Gouffran

Home Away Draw

4.8% 94.5%

12.9%

5.5%

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

HvA

82.3% 18.75% Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Goals Share

81.25%

2.60

0.60

Home Away Total

ExpG 2.60 0.60 3.20

Supremacy

2.00

13.8% 11.9% 10.6% 8.3%

7.2%

6.4% 6.4% 4.1% 4.1% 2.5% 2.5%

2.4% 0.7%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

2-0

1.9% 0.1%

2-1

3-0

0.4%

3-1

Everton v Manchester City Betting Forecast Saturday 10th March, 3pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 4.14

Draw 3.61

Away 1.87

4.47 22.4%

3.86 25.9%

1.93 51.7%

-5.3% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

2.07 48.3%

1.35 74.1%

1.29 77.6%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

3.31 30.2%

1.43 69.8%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.25 5.00 1.73 2.37 2.83 1.55

Home Away

True Chance Over Under 80.00% 20.00% 57.80% 42.20% 35.34% 64.66%

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 1.73 2.37 57.80% 42.20%

Implied Odds True Chance

5.0% 5.0%

1-1 10.8% 10.8%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 5.8% 6.0% 3.6% 6.5% 5.8% 9.0% 8.1% 9.7%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

20.09 20.09

9.30 9.30

17.22 17.22

69.74 20.66

38.75 17.22

0-0 Home Away

Margin

16.74 11.16

27.90 12.40

15.50 10.33

Hart

Robles

Barkley

Stones

Jagielka

Besic

Barry

Naismith

Lukaku

3-1 2.6% 5.8%

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Coleman

3-0 1.4% 4.8%

Baines

Mirallax

Zabaleta

Demichelis

Managala

Clichy

Navas

Fernandinho

Fernando

Nasri

Silva

Jovetic

Home Away Draw

22.4% 30.2%

69.8%

HvA

51.7%

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

25.9%

40.00%

Goals Share 60.00%

1.20

1.80

Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Home Away Total

ExpG 1.20 1.80 3.00

Supremacy

-0.60

10.8% 10.8%

9.7%

9.0% 5.8% 5.8%

5.0% 5.0%

8.1% 6.5%

6.0% 3.6%

1.4%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

5.8%

4.8%

2-0

2-1

3-0

2.6%

3-1

Leicester City v Aston Villa Betting Forecast Saturday 10th March, 3pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 2.16

Draw 3.24

Away 3.52

2.25 44.4%

3.45 29.0%

3.77 26.6%

-5.6% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

1.36 73.4%

1.41 71.0%

1.80 55.6%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

1.60 62.6%

2.67 37.4%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.49 3.04 2.48 1.68 4.98 1.25

Home Away

True Chance Over Under 67.11% 32.89% 40.32% 59.68% 20.08% 79.92%

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 2.20 1.83 45.45% 54.55%

Implied Odds True Chance

10.0% 10.0%

1-1 12.9% 12.9%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 4.1% 13.5% 9.4% 8.7% 4.1% 9.5% 4.5% 6.1%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

9.97 9.97

7.78 7.78

24.26 24.26

24.32 69.80

25.60 51.70

0-0 Home Away

Margin

7.39 10.50

10.59 22.10

11.52 16.37

Guzan

Hamer

Simpson

Wasilewski

Morgan

Konchesky

Albrighton

James

Hammond

Vardy

Ulloa

3-1 3.9% 1.9%

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Nugent

3-0 4.1% 1.4%

Hutton

Clark

Okore

Cissokho

Westwood

Sanchez

Cleverley

Weimann

Benteke

Agbonlahor

Home Away Draw

26.6% 62.6% 37.4%

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

44.4%

HvA

29.0%

41.30%

58.70%

Goals Share

1.35

0.95

Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Home Away Total

ExpG 1.35 0.95 2.30

Supremacy

0.40

13.5%

12.9% 12.9% 10.0% 10.0%

9.5%

9.4%

8.7% 6.1% 4.5%

4.1% 4.1%

4.1%

3.9% 1.4%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

2-0

2-1

3-0

1.9%

3-1

Swansea City v West Ham Utd Betting Forecast Saturday 10th March, 5:30pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Home 2.22

Draw 3.34

Away 3.29

2.31 43.3%

3.55 28.1%

3.50 28.6%

-5.4% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

1.40 71.4%

1.39 71.9%

1.76 56.7%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

1.66 60.2%

2.51 39.8%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.33 4.03 1.97 2.03 3.50 1.40

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

True Chance Over Under 75.19% 24.81% 50.76% 49.24% 28.57% 71.43%

Home Away

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 1.85 2.18 54.05% 45.95%

Implied Odds True Chance

6.7% 6.7%

1-1 12.1% 12.1%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 5.4% 10.1% 7.6% 9.1% 5.4% 8.1% 4.8% 7.3%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

14.88 14.88

8.27 8.27

18.37 18.37

26.45 51.67

22.04 34.44

0-0 Home Away

Margin

9.92 12.40

13.23 20.67

11.02 13.78

Adrian

Fabianski

Fernandez

Taylor

Williams

Jenkinson

Britton

Collins

Reid

Cresswell

Carroll Song Noble

Nolan Dyer

Sigurdsson

Routledge Downing

Gomis

3-1 4.5% 2.9%

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Rangel

3-0 3.8% 1.9%

Valencia

Carroll

Home Away Draw

60.2% 39.8%

28.6% H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

43.3%

HvA

28.1%

55.56%

Goals Share

1.50

44.44%

1.20

Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Home Away Total

ExpG 1.50 1.20 2.70

Supremacy

0.30

12.1% 12.1% 10.1% 8.1% 6.7% 6.7% 5.4% 5.4%

9.1% 7.6%

7.3% 4.8%

4.5%

3.8% 1.9%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

2-0

2-1

3-0

2.9%

3-1

WBA v Hull City Betting Forecast Saturday 10th March, 3pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 2.02

Draw 3.27

Away 3.95

2.10 47.7%

3.47 28.8%

4.25 23.5%

-5.4% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

1.31 76.5%

1.40 71.2%

1.91 52.3%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

1.49 67.0%

3.03 33.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.49 3.04 2.48 1.68 4.98 1.25

Home Away

True Chance Over Under 67.11% 32.89% 40.32% 59.68% 20.08% 79.92%

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 2.24 1.81 44.64% 55.36%

Implied Odds True Chance

10.0% 10.0%

1-1 12.6% 12.6%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 4.0% 14.0% 9.8% 8.8% 4.0% 9.0% 4.1% 5.7%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

9.97 9.97

7.92 7.92

25.13 25.13

21.81 82.09

24.23 58.64

0-0 Home Away

Margin

7.12 11.08

10.18 24.63

11.31 17.59

McGregor

Foster

Wisdom

McAuley

Lescott

Baird

Sessegnon

Gardner

Morrison

Brunt

Berahino

3-1 4.1% 1.7%

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Dorrans

3-0 4.6% 1.2%

Chester

Davies

Dawson

Elmohamady

Brady Huddlestone

Meyler

Hernandez

Livermore

Jelavic

Home Away Draw

23.5% 67.0% 33.0%

47.7%

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

HvA

28.8%

39.13%

Goals Share 60.87%

1.40

0.90

Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Home Away Total

ExpG 1.40 0.90 2.30

Supremacy

0.50

14.0% 12.6% 12.6% 10.0% 10.0%

9.0%

9.8%

8.8% 5.7% 4.1%

4.0% 4.0%

4.6%

4.1% 1.2%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

2-0

2-1

3-0

1.7%

3-1

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Betting Forecast Saturday 10th March, 5:30pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 3.47

Draw 3.34

Away 2.14

3.71 27.0%

3.56 28.1%

2.23 44.9%

-5.5% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

1.81 55.1%

1.39 71.9%

1.37 73.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

2.66 37.5%

1.60 62.5%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.38 3.63 2.13 1.88 3.95 1.34

Home Away

Kelly

True Chance Over Under 72.46% 27.54% 46.95% 53.05% 25.32% 74.68%

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 1.97 2.03 50.76% 49.24%

Implied Odds True Chance

7.8% 7.8%

1-1 12.5% 12.5%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 5.0% 8.6% 4.7% 6.8% 5.0% 11.3% 8.2% 9.0%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

12.81 12.81

8.03 8.03

20.14 20.14

57.73 25.21

39.82 22.91

0-0 Home Away

Margin

11.64 8.83

21.17 12.18

3-0 1.7% 4.0%

14.60 11.08

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Speroni

Lloris

Dann

Delaney

Bannan

Ledley

Puncheon

Campbell

Ward

McArthur

Walker

Fazio

Vertonghen

Mason

Stambouli

Townsend

Eriksen

Zaha

Kane

3-1 2.5% 4.4%

Rose

Chadli

Home Away Draw

27.0% 37.5% 62.5%

44.9%

HvA

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

28.1%

43.14%

Goals Share

1.10

56.86%

1.45

Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Home Away Total

12.5% 12.5%

ExpG 1.10 1.45 2.55

Supremacy

-0.35

11.3% 8.6%

7.8% 7.8%

9.0%

8.2% 6.8%

5.0% 5.0%

4.7% 1.7%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

2-0

4.4%

4.0%

2-1

3-0

2.5%

3-1

Arsenal v Stoke City Betting Forecast Sunday 11th March, 1:30pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 1.44

Draw 4.41

Away 7.37

1.48 67.5%

4.81 20.8%

8.57 11.7%

-5.7% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

1.13 88.3%

1.26 79.2%

3.08 32.5%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

1.17 85.3%

6.79 14.7%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.27 4.70 1.80 2.25 3.03 1.49

Home Away

True Chance Over Under 78.74% 21.26% 55.56% 44.44% 33.00% 67.00%

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 2.08 1.93 48.08% 51.92%

Implied Odds True Chance

5.5% 5.5%

1-1 9.2% 9.2%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 3.9% 11.6% 12.1% 9.7% 3.9% 4.4% 1.8% 3.7%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

18.17 18.17

10.82 10.82

25.76 25.76

0-0 Home Away

Margin

8.65 22.72

8.24 56.79

10.30 27.04

Cazorla

Mertesacker

Flamini

Gibbs

Cameron

Giroud

3-1 14.72 101.42

Shawcross

Muniesa

N’Zonzi

Whelan

Pieters

Coquelin Walters

Chamberlaiin

3-0 11.77 212.98

Begovic

Szczesny

Koscielny

3-1 6.8% 1.0%

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Debuchy

3-0 8.5% 0.5%

Bojan

Sanchez Crouch

Arnautovic

Home Away Draw

11.7% 85.3% 14.7%

20.8%

HvA

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

67.5%

27.59% Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Goals Share 72.41%

2.10

0.80

Home Away Total

ExpG 2.10 0.80 2.90

Supremacy

1.30

12.1%

11.6%

9.7%

9.2% 9.2%

8.5% 6.8%

5.5% 5.5% 3.9% 3.9%

4.4%

3.7% 1.8% 0.5%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

2-0

2-1

3-0

1.0%

3-1

Manchester Utd v Saints Betting Forecast Monday 11th March, 4pm 1X2 Average Odds Implied Odds True Chance Double Chance Implied Odds True Chance Draw No Bet Implied Odds True Chance

Goals 1.5 Goals 2.5 Goals 3.5 Goals

Home 1.80

Draw 3.61

Away 4.51

1.86 53.7%

3.86 25.9%

4.91 20.4%

-5.4% 0.0% 0.0%

H/D

H/A

D/A

Margin

1.26 79.6%

1.35 74.1%

2.16 46.3%

0.0% 0.0%

Home

Away

Margin

1.38 72.5%

3.64 27.5%

0.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds Over Under 1.36 3.78 2.08 1.93 3.79 1.36

Home Away

True Chance Over Under 73.53% 26.47% 48.08% 51.92% 26.39% 73.61%

All goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled from the Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’s ExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ of success. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin moves in your favour).

Both Teams To Score Yes No 2.02 1.98 49.50% 50.50%

Implied Odds True Chance

7.4% 7.4%

1-1 11.6% 11.6%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1 4.6% 12.3% 10.1% 9.6% 4.6% 7.1% 3.4% 5.5%

0-0

1-1

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution) 2-2 1-0 2-0 2-1

3-0

3-1

13.46 13.46

8.59 8.59

21.92 21.92

17.98 94.22

18.93 57.10

0-0 Home Away

Margin

8.16 14.17

9.89 29.84

10.41 18.08

Forster

De Gea

Evans

Shaw

Smalling

Carrick Herrera

Clyne

Fonte

Alderweireld

Bertrand

Ward-Prowse

Wanyama

Schneiderlin

Tadic

Di Maria Davis

Rooney

Falcao

3-1 5.3% 1.8%

Predicted Line-up

Predicted Line-up

Jones

3-0 5.6% 1.1%

Van Persie

Pelle

Home Away Draw

20.4% 72.5% 27.5%

53.7%

H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio between home and away - a better way to compare team strength.

HvA 25.9%

36.54%

Goals Share 63.46%

1.65

0.95

Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart and are used to forecast the correct score market.

Home Away Total

ExpG 1.65 0.95 2.60

Supremacy

0.70

12.3%

11.6% 11.6%

10.1% 7.4% 7.4%

9.6%

7.1% 5.5%

4.6% 4.6%

5.6%

5.3%

3.4% 1.1%

0-0

1-1

2-2

1-0

2-0

2-1

3-0

1.8%

3-1

Odds Ready Reckoner

Decimal

Fraction

1.2 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.3 1.33 1.35 1.36 1.4 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.5 1.53 1.57 1.6 1.62 1.63 1.66 1.7 1.72 1.8 1.83 1.9 1.91 1.95 2 2.05 2.1 2.2 2.25 2.3 2.38 2.4 2.5 2.6

1/5 2.9 1/4 2/7 3/10 1/3 7/20 4/11 2/5 4/9 9/20 40/85 1/2 8/15 4/7 3/5 8/13 5/8 4/6 7/10 8/11 4/5 5/6 9/10 10/11 20/21 1/1 21/20 11/10 6/5 5/4 13/10 11/8 7/5 6/4 8/5

Implied Probability 83.3% 82.0% 80.0% 78.1% 76.9% 75.2% 74.1% 73.5% 71.4% 69.4% 69.0% 68.0% 66.7% 65.4% 63.7% 62.5% 61.7% 61.3% 60.2% 58.8% 58.1% 55.6% 54.6% 52.6% 52.4% 51.3% 50.0% 48.8% 47.6% 45.5% 44.4% 43.5% 42.0% 41.7% 40.0% 38.5%

Decimal

Fraction

2.63 2.7 2.75 2.8 2.88 2.9 3 3.1 3.13 3.2 3.25 3.3 3.33 3.38 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.75 3.8 4 4.2 4.33 4.5 4.6 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 11

13/8 17/10 7/4 9/5 15/8 19/10 2/1 21/10 85/40 11/5 9/4 23/10 100/30 95/40 12/5 5/2 13/5 11/4 14/5 3/1 16/5 10/3 7/2 18/5 4/1 9/2 5/1 11/2 6/1 13/2 7/1 15/2 8/1 17/2 9/1 10/1

Implied Probability 38.0% 37.0% 36.4%

Example: Decimal odds of 3.10 are equivalent to 2.1/1 (written as 21/10 in fractional odds).

35.7% 34.7% 34.5% 33.3% 32.3% 31.9% 31.3% 30.8% 30.3% 30.0% 29.6% 29.4% 28.6% 27.8% 26.7% 26.3% 25.0% 23.8% 23.1% 22.2% 21.7% 20.0% 18.2% 16.7% 15.4%

Fractional odds to decimal odds:

14.3% 13.3% 12.5% 11.8% 11.1% 10.5% 10.0% 9.1%

decimal odds (3.10) - 1 = fractional odds (2.1/1 or 21/10)

(21 ÷ 10) + 1 = 3.1 Now you can convert this to the implied probability: 1 (100%) ÷ 3.1 = 0.3226 (32.26%)

How much will I win?

If you put £10.00 on odds of 8/13 (1.62), you would get £16.20 back including your stake, so a £6.20 profit.

If you put £1.00 on odds of 15/2 (8.5), you would get £8.50 back, so a £7.50 profit.

Staking Strategy The Odds Ready Reckoner is ideal as a simple but useful staking tool. If you want to win £100.00 from each bet you place, then all you need to do is place the percentage equivalent. E.G. If a team is 3/1 to win, you place £25.00 (as the odds represent 25%) and you will get £100.00 back. This is a better way to use your betting money as the amount you are risking is proportional to the chance of winning.

The average odds from various bookmakers Worldwide.

Expected/Predicted Goals A team’s estimated goals that it should score in the given game on average.

Implied Odds An assumed chance, written as odds, that an event has of happening.

Mean Average The mean average is the average which we use in basic maths. It is calculated by dividing the total number of something by how many events. For example, if Chelsea had conceded 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals in their last six games, the average goals they have conceded is 0.83.

5 (the total goals) divided by 6 (the number of matches).

Poisson Distribution A statistical model that uses the mean to calculate the chance of absolute numbers. For example, if Manchester United’s average goals per game is 2.08 (their mean average), then the Poisson formula will calculate the chance of them scoring 0, 1, 2 and so on.

True Odds/Chance These are the odds that do not have a bookmaker’s margin applied. After the bookmakers have incorporated their profit margin into the odds, they are lower than what the true chance reflects.

Glossary

Average Odds