6 7 5 $ 7 ( * , ( , 0 ( 7 2 ' < % $ ' $ ฤ 6WXGLD 3V\FKRORJLFD 8.6: V
-$1 &,(&,8&+* ,QVW\WXW 3V\FKRORJLL 8QLZHUV\WHW .DUG\QDรกD 6WHIDQD :\V]\ฤ VNLHJR
3,ฤ &,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ฤ &, :( :&=(61(- $'2/(6&(1&-,120 )LYH IDFWRU SHUVRQDOLW\ VWUXFWXUH ,Q HDUO\ DGROHVFHQFH
$EVWUDFW
7KH DUWLFOH FRQWDLQV YHULยฟFDWLRQ RI WKH )LYH )DFWRU VWUXFWXUH LQ HDUO\ DGROHVFHQFH $JDLQVW UHFRPPHQGDWLRQ RI 0F&UDH HW DO LW ZDV QRW DSSOLHG 3URFXVWHV 5RWDWLRQ $FFRUGLQJ WR SV\FKRPHWULF UHFRPPHQGDWLRQ %RUVERRP ZH XVHG &RQยฟUPDWRU\ )DFWRU $QDO\VLV ZLWK LWHPV SDUFH OLQJ :LOOLDPV 2ยถ%R\OH 7KH VWXG\ ZDV FRQGXFWHG RQ 3ROLVK DGROHVFHQWV XVLQJ %LJ )LYH 4XHVWLRQQDLUH IRU &KLOGUHQ RI %DUEDUDQHOOL &DSUDUD 5DEDVFD 3DVWRUHOOL LQ WKH 3ROLVK YHUVLRQ RI &LHFLXFK DQG 7RF]\รกRZVND 7KH VDPSOH ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR WZR VXEVDPSOHV ,Q WKH ยฟUVW RQH ZDV WKH H[SORUDWRU\ DQDO\VLV ZHUH GRQH DQG LQ WKH VHFRQG RQH ยฑ FRQยฟUPDWRU\ DQD O\VLV 0RGHO ยฟW FRHIยฟFLHQWV LQ &RQยฟUPDWRU\ )DFWRU $QDO\VLV DUH DFFHSWDEOH WKHUHIRUH WKH )LYH )DFWRU VWUXFWXUH RI SHUVRQDOLW\ LQ HDUO\ DGROHVFHQWV ZDV FRQยฟUPHG
* $GUHV GR NRUHVSRQGHQFML M FLHFLXFK#XNVZ HGX SO 1
']Lฤ NXMฤ 7RPDV]RZL 5RZLฤ VNLHPX ]D XZDJL GR SLHUZV]HM ZHUVML DUW\NXรกX
-$1 &,(&,8&+
[2]
02'(/ :,(/.,(- 3,ฤ 7., : 3(563(.7<:,( 52=:2-2:(-
0RGHO :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL MHVW SRZV]HFKQLH ]QDQ\P L X]QDZDQ\P PRGH OHP RSLVX RVRERZRฤ FL Z NDWHJRULDFK FHFK 'LJPDQ 0F&UDH &RVWD :HGรกXJ 0F&UDHยถD L &RVW\ ยฑ DXWRUyZ GRPLQXMฤ FHJR REHFQLH XMฤ FLD ยฑ SLฤ รผ FHFK RVRERZRฤ FL QHXURW\F]QRฤ รผ HNVWUDZHUVMD RWZDUWRฤ รผ QD GRฤ ZLDGF]HQLH VXPLHQQRฤ รผ L XJRGRZRฤ รผ VNรกDGDMฤ VLฤ QD XQLZHUVDOQฤ VWUXN WXUฤ RVRERZRฤ FL F]\ ยฑ MDN WR PHWDIRU\F]QLH XMฤ รก 0F&UDH ยฑ XQLZHUVDOQฤ ยฟ]\Nฤ RVRERZRฤ FL $UJXPHQWDPL QD U]HF] WDNLHM GRฤ รผ PRFQHM WH]\ Vฤ Z\QLNL RJURPQHM OLF]E\ EDGDฤ UyZQLHฤช ZLHOX EDGDฤ PLฤ G]\NXOWXURZ\FK 0F&UDH +HQGULNV L LQQL 0F&UDH 7HUUDFFLDQR L LQQL : RVWDWQLFK ODWDFK ]DXZDฤชDOQ\ MHVW Z\UDฤจQ\ UR]ZRMRZ\ ]ZURW Z EDGD QLDFK QDG VWUXNWXUฤ RVRERZRฤ FL 6KLQHU &DVSL %DGDQLD UR]ZRMRZH Z PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL SURZDG]RQH Vฤ Z WU]HFK JรกyZQ\FK QXUWDFK : SLHUZV]\P ] QLFK SRGHMPRZDQH Vฤ SUyE\ EDGDQLD FRUD] PรกRGV]\FK RVyE ] Xฤช\FLHP QDU]ฤ G]L EDGDZF]\FK SU]H]QDF]RQ\FK GOD GRURVรก\FK 1D SU]\ NรกDG )UX\W 0HUYLHOGH +RHNVWUD L 5ROODQG RUD] 'H )UX\W 'H %ROOH 0F&UDH 7HUUDFLDQR L &RVWD Xฤช\ZDMฤ F 1(2 3, 5 Z V]HURNR ]DNUR MRQ\FK EDGDQLDFK PLฤ G]\NXOWXURZ\FK Z\ND]DOL ฤชH VWUXNWXUD FHFK RVRER ZRฤ FL RVyE GRUDVWDMฤ F\FK Z ZLHNX RG GR ODW MHVW EDUG]R ]EOLฤชRQD GR VWUXNWXU\ GRURVรก\FK : GUXJLP QXUFLH EDGDฤ SRGHMPRZDQH Vฤ SUyE\ RSLVX RVRERZRฤ FL FRUD] PรกRGV]\FK EDGDQ\FK SRSU]H] DQDOL]ฤ GDQ\FK ]HEUDQ\FK Zฤ UyG QDXF]\FLHOL URG]LFyZ RUD] UyZLHฤ QLNyZ 2ND]DรกR VLฤ ฤชH WDNL RSLV RVRERZRฤ FL G]LHFL PLฤ G]\ D URNLHP ฤช\FLD GRNRQDQ\ SU]H] REVHUZDWR UyZ UyZQLHฤช SU]\MPXMH VWUXNWXUฤ SLฤ FLRF]\QQLNRZฤ 0HUYLHOGH %X\VW 'H )UX\W 0HUYLHOGH 'H )UX\W : WU]HFLP QXUFLH NRQVWUXRZDQH Vฤ VDPRRSLVRZH QDU]ฤ G]LD EDGDZF]H SU]H]QDF]RQH GOD G]LHFL RUD] GRUDVWD Mฤ F\FK -HGQฤ ] QDMEDUG]LHM XGDQ\FK SURSR]\FML Z W\P ]DNUHVLH ]JรกRVLOL %DU EDUDQHOOL &DSUDUD 5DEDVFD L 3DVWRUHOOL 6NRQVWUXRZDOL RQL G]LHFLฤ Fฤ ZHUVMฤ NZHVWLRQDULXV]D GR SRPLDUX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL %LJ )LYH 4XHVWLRQQDLUH ยฑ &KLOGUHQ YHUVLRQ %)4 & $QDOL]\ SU]HSURZDG]RQH SU]\ SRPRF\ RU\JL QDOQHM ZรกRVNLHM ZHUVML %)4 & %DUEDUDQHOOL &DSUDUD 5DEDVFD 3DVWRUHOOL D WDNฤชH ZHUVML KROHQGHUVNLHM 0XULV 0HHVWHUV 'LHGHUHQ RUD] KLV]SDฤ VNLHM 'HO %DUULR &DUUDVFR +ROJDGR Z\ND]Dรก\ ฤชH Z RNUHVLH SyฤจQHJR G]LHFLฤ VWZD L ZF]HVQHM DGROHVFHQFML VDPRRSLV RVRERZRฤ FL RUJDQL ]RZDQ\ MHVW Z SLฤ FLRF]\QQLNRZฤ VWUXNWXUฤ
[ @
3,ฤ &,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ฤ &,
%DGDQLD SURZDG]RQH Zฤ UyG FRUD] PรกRGV]\FK RVyE ยฑ QDMSLHUZ SU]\ Xฤช\ FLX QDU]ฤ G]L GOD GRURVรก\FK D QDVWฤ SQLH UyZQLHฤช QDU]ฤ G]L NRQVWUXRZDQ\FK VSHFMDOQLH GOD G]LHFL ยฑ Z SHZQ\P VHQVLH Vฤ NRQVHNZHQFMฤ SR]\W\ZQHM ZHU\ยฟNDFML XQLZHUVDOQRฤ FL PRGHOX Zฤ UyG RVyE GRURVรก\FK -Hฤ OL ERZLHP SLฤ FLRF]\QQLNRZD VWUXNWXUD MHVW PRGHOHP RSLVXMฤ F\P RVRERZRฤ รผ F]รกRZLH ND GRURVรกHJR QLH]DOHฤชQLH RG NXOWXU\ WR QDW\FKPLDVW SRMDZLD VLฤ S\WDQLH R UR]ZyM WHM VWUXNWXU\ L MHM JHQH]ฤ 3V\FKRORJRZLH UR]ZRMRZL SU]HMฤ OL ]DWHP PRGHO Z\SUDFRZDQ\ QD JUXQFLH SV\FKRORJLL RVRERZRฤ FL X]QDMฤ F JR ]D GR VWDWHF]QLH ]ZHU\ยฟNRZDQ\ L VWDQRZLฤ F\ SRGVWDZฤ NRQVWUXNFML QDU]ฤ G]L SR PLDURZ\FK GOD G]LHFL L PรกRG]LHฤช\ RUD] IRUPXรกRZDQLD KLSRWH] 2ND]XMH VLฤ MHGQDN ฤชH ZHU\ยฟNDFMD PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL SURZDG]RQD RG ODW Z ZLHOX LPSRQXMฤ F\FK UR]PDFKHP SURJUDPDFK EDGDZF]\FK QLH MHVW ZROQD RG SUREOHPyZ -HGHQ ] QLFK GRW\F]\ PRฤชOLZRฤ FL ZHU\ยฟNDFML PR GHOX Z NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM X]QDZDQHM REHFQLH ]D SRG VWDZRZฤ L VWDQGDUGRZฤ SURFHGXUฤ WHVWX PRGHOL SRPLDURZ\FK %RUVERRP %URZQ :,(/., 352%/(0 :,(/.,(- 3,ฤ 7.,
*HQH]D PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL MHVW QLHRGรกฤ F]QLH ]ZLฤ ]DQD ] DQDOL]ฤ F]\QQLNRZฤ NWyUD E\รกD QDU]ฤ G]LHP XPRฤชOLZLDMฤ F\P UHGXNFMฤ RJURPQHM OLF]E\ RNUHฤ OHฤ SU]\PLRWQLNyZ U]HF]RZQLNyZ IUD] L Z\UDฤชHฤ IXQNFMR QXMฤ F\FK Z Mฤ ]\NX GR SRGVWDZRZHJR NDWDORJX SLฤ FLX F]\QQLNyZ 1LHZฤ W SOLZH KLVWRU\F]QH ]DVรกXJL HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM Z NRQVWUXN FML PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL VWDMฤ VLฤ MHGQDNฤชH REHFQLH G]LHG]LFWZHP GRฤ รผ NรกRSRWOLZ\P +LVWRU\F]QLH U]HF] XMPXMฤ F ยฑ DQDOL]D HNVSORUDF\MQD E\รกD QDU]ฤ G]LHP ZรกDฤ FLZ\P Z SLHUZV]\P RNUHVLH EDGDฤ QDG VWUXNWXUฤ RVRER ZRฤ FL XMPRZDQฤ Z NDWHJRULDFK FHFK NLHG\ SV\FKRORJRZLH SRV]XNLZDOL MDN QDMPQLHMV]HM OLF]E\ Z\PLDUyZ REHMPXMฤ F\FK MHGQDNฤชH FDรกH ERJDFWZR Mฤ ]\NRZ\FK RNUHฤ OHฤ NWyUH ยฑ ]JRGQLH ] KLSRWH]ฤ OHNV\NDOQฤ ยฑ RGGDZDรกR WR Z MDNL VSRVyE OXG]LH R RVRERZRฤ FL P\ฤ Oฤ Z MDNLFK NDWHJRULDFK RSLVXMฤ VLHELH L LQQ\FK 'LJPDQ = G]LVLHMV]HM SHUVSHNW\Z\ MHVW WR MHGQDNฤชH MXฤช KLVWRULD SV\FKRORJLL F]\ GRNรกDGQLHM U]HF] XMPXMฤ F ยฑ KLVWRULD RGNU\รผ SV\ FKRORJLF]Q\FK 2EHFQLH PRGHO :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL IXQNFMRQXMH ERZLHP MDN QD RZฤ XQLZHUVDOQฤ ยฟ]\Nฤ RVRERZRฤ FL 0F&UDH SU]\VWDรกR MDNR PRGHO GRVWDWHF]QLH X]DVDGQLRQ\ HPSLU\F]QLH NWyU\ GRVWDUF]D Xฤช\WHF]Qฤ L NRP
-$1 &,(&,8&+
> @
SOHWQฤ VLDWNฤ SRMฤ รผ GR RSLVX SRGVWDZRZHJR SR]LRPX RVRERZRฤ FL 0F&UDH &RVWD 0F$GDPV 3DOV -Hฤ OL ]DWHP ZDUWR E\รกRE\ SURZDG]Lรผ MDNLHฤ WHVW\ ZHU\ยฟNXMฤ FH PRGHO EDUG]LHM ]DVDGQH E\รกRE\ SRGHMฤ FLH NRQยฟU PDF\MQH : OLWHUDWXU]H SV\FKRPHWU\F]QHM SDQXMH SRZV]HFKQD ]JRGD ฤชH NRQยฟUPD F\MQD DQDOL]D F]\QQLNRZD MHVW VXURZ\P FKRรผ NRQLHF]Q\P WHVWHP MDNRฤ FL PRGHOX SRPLDURZHJR RUD] WHRULL QD ED]LH NWyUHM PRGHO ]RVWDรก VNRQVWUXRZD Q\ %URZQ %RUVERRP 6DUULV *DOOKRIHU 2ND]XMH VLฤ MHGQDN ฤชH ยฑ MDN WR XMฤ รก %RUVERRP V ยฑ ] SXQNWX ZLG]HQLD NRQ ยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM :LHOND 3Lฤ WND MHVW ZLHONLP SUREOHPHP 3UREOHP MHVW QLH]Z\NOH SRZDฤชQ\ JG\ฤช VWRLP\ Z REOLF]X Z\UDฤจQHJR NRQร LNWX SV\FKRORJyZ ] SV\FKRPHWUDPL : GRV\รผ UDG\NDOQ\P DUW\NXOH RSXEOLNRZDQ\P Z F]DVRSLฤ PLH 3V\FKRPHWULND %RUVERRP WUDNWXMH ZUฤ F] PRGHO :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL MDNR SU]\NรกDG WUDJLF]QHJR Z VNXWNDFK LJQR URZDQLD SU]H] SV\FKRORJyZ GRNRQDฤ SV\FKRPHWUyZ : MHJR LQWHUSUHWDFML JรกyZQL WZyUF\ L REURฤ F\ PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL SRVXZDMฤ VLฤ GR UDG\ NDOQ\FK VWZLHUG]Hฤ ] SXQNWX ZLG]HQLD SV\FKRPHWULL QLH W\ONR QLHXSUDZ QLRQ\FK DOH ZUฤ F] V]RNXMฤ F\FK 3V\FKRPHWU\F]Q\ V]RN R NWyU\P SLV]H %RUVERRP SROHJD QD W\P ฤชH Z REOLF]X QHJDW\ZQHJR Z\QLNX NRQ ยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM REURฤ F\ PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL VNรกDQLDMฤ VLฤ GR RGU]XFHQLDยซ NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM 0F&UDH =RQGHU PDQ &RVWD %RQG 3DXQRQHQ 7UXGQR QLH SU]\ZRรกDรผ Z W\P PLHMVFX +HJOD NWyU\ JรกRVLรก ฤชH MHฤ OL IDNW\ QLH ]JDG]Dรก\ VLฤ ] MHJR WHRULฤ ยฑ W\P JRU]HM GOD IDNWyZ 3URSRQRZDQฤ SU]H] 0F&UDHยถD =RQGHUPDQD &RVWฤ %RQGD 3DXQRQHQD DQDOL]ฤ NRQยฟUPXMฤ Fฤ QLH MHVW NRQยฟUPDF\MQD DQDOL]D F]\QQLNRZD NWyUD MHGQR]QDF]QLH ZVND]XMH QLHGRSDVRZDQLH GDQ\FK GR PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL OHF] WDN ]ZDQD URWDFMD 3URFUXVWHV SROHJDMฤ FD QD URWDFML Z\QLNyZ X]\VNDQ\FK Z HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM GR Z\QLNyZ WUDNWRZD Q\FK MDNR Z]RUFRZH F]\OL SRFKRG]ฤ FH ] EDGDฤ ยซ GRURVรก\FK $PHU\NDQyZ 3URFHGXUD URWDFML 3URFUXVWHV MHVW SRZV]HFKQLH VWRVRZDQD Z EDGDQLDFK Z PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL 0F&UDH +HQGULNV L LQQL 0F&UDH 7HU UDFFLQR L LQQL 'H )UX\W 'H %ROOH 0F&UDH 7HUUDFLDQR &RVWD -HGQDNฤชH SRPLPR SRGHMPRZDQ\FK SUyE RPLQLฤ FLD NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM Z OLF]Q\FK WHNVWDFK UHIHUXMฤ F\FK WH EDGDQLD ZLGRF]QD MHVW ฤ ZLD GRPRฤ รผ QDUDVWDMฤ FHJR SUREOHPX 1LHPRฤชQRฤ รผ ZHU\ยฟNDFML :LHONLHM 3Lฤ WNL Z
[ @
3,ฤ &,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ฤ &,
W\P SRZV]HFKQLH X]QDZDQ\P SDUDG\JPDFLH NRQยฟUPDFML PRGHOX WHRUHW\F] QHJR EXG]L QLHSRNyM L VNรกDQLD GR NROHMQ\FK SUyE UR]ZLฤ ]DQLD SUREOHPX : GRW\FKF]DVRZHM OLWHUDWXU]H QD V]F]HJyOQฤ XZDJฤ ]DVรกXJXMฤ GZLH SURSR]\FMH 3LHUZV]ฤ ] QLFK MHVW VWRVRZDQLH ยฑ MDN WR QD]\ZD %DUEDUDQHOOL L ZVSyรกSUD FRZQLF\ %DUEDUDQHOOL &DSUDUD 5DEDVFD 3DVWRUHOOL ยฑ QLHUHVWU\NF\MQHM NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM F]\ WHฤช ยฑ MDN WR QD]\ZDMฤ WR $OXMD *DUFLD *DUFLD L 6HLVGHGRV ยฑ SU]H]Z\FLฤ ฤชDQLH RJUDQLF]Hฤ NRQยฟUPD F\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM 3URSRQRZDQD SU]H] QLFK SURFHGXUD VSURZDG]D VLฤ Z JUXQFLH U]HF]\ GR WHJR DฤชHE\ XPRฤชOLZLรผ HVW\PDFMฤ รกDGXQNyZ F]\Q QLNRZ\FK ZLฤ ฤชฤ F\FK GDQ\ LWHP ] GZRPD OXE ZLฤ FHM F]\QQLNDPL F]ฤ VWR Z WDNLP VDP\P VWRSQLX 7DND SURFHGXUD ZLฤ ฤชH VLฤ ] GZRPD LVWRWQ\PL SUREOHPDPL 3LHUZV]\ ] QLFK MHVW EDUG]LHM WHFKQLF]Q\ GUXJL EDUG]LHM PHU\WRU\F]Q\ 3UREOHP WHFK QLF]Q\ SROHJD QD W\P ฤชH รกฤ F]HQLH ]PLHQQ\FK REVHUZRZDOQ\FK ] GZLHPD OXE ZLฤ FHM ]PLHQQ\PL ODWHQWQ\PL SURZDG]L GR QLHUR]UyฤชQLDOQRฤ FL ]PLHQ Q\FK ODWHQWQ\FK -Hฤ OL GDQH LWHP\ NRQVW\WXXMฤ QD SU]\NรกDG GZD F]\QQLNL WR MHGQฤ ] NRQVHNZHQFML MHVW X]\VNDQH Z\ฤชV]H VNRUHORZDQLH W\FKฤชH F]\QQL NyZ .RQยฟUPDF\MQD DQDOL]D F]\QQLNRZD ZSUDZG]LH GRSXV]F]D VNRUHORZD QLH MHฤ OL MHGQDN SU]HNUDF]D RQR SHZLHQ NU\W\F]Q\ SXQNW F]\QQLNL SU]HVWDMฤ E\รผ UR]UyฤชQLDOQH 7HFKQLF]QLH U]HF] XMPXMฤ F ยฑ Z WDNLHM V\WXDFML SURJUDP QS $026 JHQHUXMH LQIRUPDFMฤ R Eรกฤ GQ\P ]GHยฟQLRZDQLX PDFLHU]\ 1LH VWHW\ QLH ZLDGRPR F]\ WDN E\รกR Z NWyUHMฤ ] Z\PLHQLRQ\FK DQDOL] SRQLHZDฤช DXWRU]\ R W\P QLH ZVSRPLQDMฤ QLH SRGDMฤ WHฤช ZLHONRฤ FL NRUHODFML PLฤ G]\ ]PLHQQ\PL ODWHQWQ\PL Z PRGHOX X]QDZDQ\P SU]H] QLFK ]D DNFHSWRZDOQ\ QD SRGVWDZLH ZVNDฤจQLNyZ GRSDVRZDQLD =Z\F]DM LQIRUPRZDQLD R HZHQ WXDOQ\P QHJDW\ZQ\P ]GHยฟQLRZDQLX PDFLHU]\ SRMDZLรก VLฤ Z OLWHUDWXU]H VWR VXQNRZR QLHGDZQR PLฤ G]\ LQQ\PL ]D VSUDZฤ 'DYLGRYD L ZVSyรกSUDFRZQL NyZ 'DYLGRZ 6FKPLGW 6FKZDUW] &LHFLXFK 'DYLGRY NWyU]\ VNRQVWUXRZDOL PRGHOH SRPLDURZH Z NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM GOD SRPLDUX ZDUWRฤ FL Z NRQFHSWXDOL]DFML 6FKZDUW]D QD GDQ\FK PLฤ G]\ LQQ\PL (XURSHMVNLHJR 6RQGDฤชX 6SRรกHF]QHJR 'UXJL SUREOHP MHVW QDWXU\ EDUG]LHM WHRUHW\F]QHM 1LH VSRVyE ERZLHP QLH ]DGDรผ S\WDQLD F]\ SURFHGXUD GRSXV]F]DMฤ FD V]DFRZDQLH รกDGXQNyZ F]\QQL NRZ\FK NROHMQ\FK GRGDWNRZ\FK LWHPyZ %DUEDUDQHOOL &DSUDUD 5DEDVFD 3DVWRUHOOL OXE VNรกDGQLNyZ JG\ GR DQDOL]\ ZSURZDG]D VLฤ VNรกDG QLNyZ 1(2 3, 5 $OXMD *DUFLD *DUFLD L 6HLVGHGRV QLH R]QDF]D
-$1 &,(&,8&+
> @
Z JUXQFLH U]HF]\ ¿DVND DQDOL] HNVSORUDF\MQ\FK Z\NRQDQ\FK Z SURFHVLH NRQVWUXRZDQLD PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3LąWNL" 1LH MHVW WR ]DU]XW ZREHF SU]\ZR áDQ\FK WX DQDOL] ± ZV]\VWNLH RQH ]RVWDá\ Z\NRQDQH ] QDMZ\ĪV]ą VWDUDQQR ĞFLą -HVW WR MHGQDNĪH Z\UDĨQ\ ]QDN ]DS\WDQLD SRVWDZLRQ\ SU]\ PRGHOX WHRUHW\F]Q\P 'UXJą SURSR]\FMą UR]ZLą]DQLD SUREOHPX DQDOL] NRQ¿UPDF\MQ\FK GOD PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3LąWNL MHVW NRQ¿UPDF\MQD DQDOL]D F]\QQLNRZD ] SURFHGXUą JUXSRZDQLD LWHPyZ SDUFHOLQJ RPyZLRQD V]F]HJyáRZR SRQLĪHM :\GDMH VLĊ ĪH WDNL VSRVyE DQDOL] F]ĊĞFLRZR EURQL VLĊ SU]HG ZąWSOLZRĞFLDPL Z\UD ĪRQ\PL SRZ\ĪHM -HVW WR WDND DQDOL]D G]LĊNL NWyUHM SRZV]HFKQLH X]QDZD Q\ PRGHO :LHONLHM 3LąWNL PRĪH ]RVWDü SR]\W\ZQLH ]ZHU\¿NRZDQ\ Z SR ZV]HFKQLH X]QDZDQHM NRQ¿UPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM -HVW WR ]DWHP SURSR]\FMD VZRLVWHM XJRG\ PLĊG]\ WHRUHW\NDPL DQDOL] SV\FKRPHWU\F]Q\FK D SUDNW\NDPL EDGDĔ HPSLU\F]Q\FK Z PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3LąWNL .21),50$&<-1$ $1$/,=$ &=<11,.2:$ = *5832:$1,(0 ,7(0Ï:
3URFHGXUD JUXSRZDQLD LWHPyZ Z NRQ¿UPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM SROHJD QD WDNLHM NRQVWUXNFML PRGHOX SRPLDURZHJR Z NWyU\P ]PLHQQ\PL REVHUZRZDOQ\PL QLH Vą SRMHG\QF]H LWHP\ DOH ĞUHGQLD OXE VXPD ] LFK JUX S\ Z\RGUĊEQLRQHM QD SRGVWDZLH MDNLHJRĞ NU\WHULXP PHU\WRU\F]QHJR OXE GREUDQ\FK Z VSRVyE ORVRZ\ %DQGDORV )LQQH\ :LOOLPV 2¶%R\OH 3URFHGXUD JUXSRZDQLD LWHPyZ ZLąĪH VLĊ ] LVWRWQ\PL ]DOHWDPL : OLWHUDWXU]H ]ZUDFD VLĊ XZDJĊ ĪH JUXS\ LWHPyZ Vą EDUG]LHM U]HWHOQH QLĪ SRMH G\QF]H LWHP\ PQLHM QDUDĪRQH QD QLHV\VWHPDW\F]QH EáĊG\ SRPLDUX 3RQDGWR LFK UR]NáDG MHVW EDUG]LHM ]EOLĪRQ\ GR QRUPDOQHJR QLĪ Z SU]\SDGNX SRMH G\QF]\FK LWHPyZ %DQGDORV )LQQH\ = SURFHGXUą JUXSRZDQLD LWHPyZ ZLąĪą VLĊ MHGQDN SHZQH G\VNXWRZDQH Z OLWHUDWXU]H SUREOHP\ ] NWyU\FK GZD Z\GDMą VLĊ V]F]HJyOQLH LVWRWQH %DQ GDORV )LQQH\ /LWWOH &XQQLQJKDP 6KDKDU %DQGDORV :LOOLPV 2¶%R\OH 3LHUZV]\P ] QLFK MHVW NRQLHF]QRĞü ZHU\¿NDFML ]DáRĪHQLD R MHGQRZ\PLDURZRĞFL PLHU]RQ\FK F]\QQLNyZ GUXJLP QDWRPLDVW VSRVyE GRERUX LWHPyZ GR JUXS 0LPR ĪH ]DáRĪHQLH MHGQRZ\PLDURZRĞFL MHVW SRGVWDZRZ\P ZDUXQNLHP GRSXV]F]DOQRĞFL JUXSRZDQLD MHVW RQR HPSLU\F]QLH ZHU\¿NRZDQH QLH]Z\ NOH U]DGNR : SU]HJOąG]LH GRNRQDQ\P SU]H] :LOOLDPVD L 2¶%R\OH¶D
[ @
3,ฤ &,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ฤ &,
RND]DรกR VLฤ ฤชH MHG\QLH Z NLONX DUW\NXรกDFK SU]HSURZDG]RQR HPSLU\F]Q\ WHVW MHGQRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL F]\QQLND ]Z\NOH SU]\ SRPRF\ HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM SRU 7KRPSVRQ .RQVHNZHQFMH EUDNX WHVWX MHGQRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL F]\QQLNyZ Z\ND]Dรก Z SROVNLHM OLWHUDWXU]H &LHFLXFK QD SU]\NรกDG]LH .ZHVWLRQDULXV]D 6W\OyZ 7RฤชVDPRฤ FL %HU]RQVN\ยถHJR : GRW\FKF]DVRZ\FK DQDOL]DFK Z\NRU]\VW\ZDQR SURFHGXUฤ JUXSRZDQLD ]DNรกDGDMฤ F MHGQRZ\PLDUR ZRฤ รผ EDGDQ\FK F]\QQLNyZ &URFHWWL 5XELQL %HU]RQVN\ 0HHXV :\QLNL WDN SU]HSURZDG]RQHM NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM E\รก\ ]DGRZDODMฤ FH L Z\ND]\ZDรก\ Z\VRNL VWRSLHฤ GRSDVRZDQLD PRGHOX F]\QQLNRZHJR VW\O LQIRUPDF\MQ\ QRUPDW\ZQ\ L G\IX]\MQR XQLNRZ\ GR GDQ\FK &LHFLXFK ]DNZHVWLRQRZDรก WDNL VSRVyE DQDOL] L SU]HSUR ZDG]Lรก WHVW MHGQRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL EDGDQ\FK F]\QQLNyZ Z WU]HFK JUXSDFK ZLHNRZ\FK รกฤ F]QLH Q : SU]HSURZDG]RQ\FK DQDOL]DFK X]\VNDQR MHGQR]QDF]QH Z\QLNL ยฑ .ZHVWLRQDULXV] ,6, PLHU]\ VW\OH WRฤชVDPRฤ FL SRQLHZDฤช PDWHULDรก HPSLU\F]Q\ QLH SR]ZDOD X]QDรผ VW\OX G\IX]\MQHJR ]D MHGQRURGQ\ VW\O 2WZDUWH SR]RVWDรกR S\WDQLH F]\ MHVW WR SUREOHP PRGHOX F]\ NZHVWLRQDULXV]D 'UXJLP NOXF]RZ\P ]DJDGQLHQLHP ]ZLฤ ]DQ\P ] SURFHGXUฤ JUXSRZDQLD MHVW VSRVyE SRG]LDรกX LWHPyZ QD JUXS\ : SRQLฤชV]\FK DQDOL]DFK SU]\Mฤ WR VSRVyE UHNRPHQGRZDQ\ SU]H] /LWWOH &XQQLQJKDP 6KDKDU NWyU\ E\รก MXฤช VWRVRZDQ\ Z EDGDQLDFK QDG :LHONฤ 3Lฤ WNฤ SU]H] $OOHPDQGD =LP SULFKD L +HUW]RJD RUD] $OOHPDQGD =LPSULFKD L +HQGULNVD -HVW WR PHWRGD ]ZDQD SU]H] /LWWOHยถD &XQQLQJKDPD L 6KDKDUD UyZQR ZDJฤ LWHP F]\QQLN LWHP WR FRQVWUXFW EDODQFH D SU]H] 5RJHUVD L 6FKPLWWD DOJRU\WPHP F]\QQLNRZ\P IDFWRULDO DOJRULWKP .U\WHULXP GRERUX LWHPyZ GR JUXS Vฤ รกDGXQNL F]\QQLNRZH Z DQDOL]LH Z NWyUHM ZV]\VWNLH LWHP\ EXGXMฤ GDQ\ F]\QQLN DQDOL]\ SU]HSURZDG]D VLฤ RVREQR GOD NDฤชGHJR F]\QQLND =DรกyฤชP\ ฤชH GHF\GXMHP\ VLฤ QD NRQ VWUXNFMฤ WU]HFK JUXS LWHPyZ EXGXMฤ F\FK F]\QQLN ; :yZF]DV WU]\ LWHP\ R QDMZ\ฤชV]\FK รกDGXQNDFK F]\QQLNRZ\FK VWDMฤ VLฤ ]DF]ฤ WNDPL WU]HFK JUXS 1DVWฤ SQLH NROHMQ\ ZHGรกXJ ZLHONRฤ FL รกDGXQNX F]\QQLNRZHJR F]ZDU W\ LWHP SU]\SLVXMHP\ GR JUXS\ SLHUZV]HM LWHP SLฤ W\ GR JUXS\ GUXJLHM LWHP V]yVW\ GR JUXS\ WU]HFLHM LWHP VLyGP\ GR JUXS\ SLHUZV]HM L WDN GDOHM : WHQ VSRVyE UR]G]LHODQH Vฤ ZV]\VWNLH LWHP\ /LWWOH &XQQLQJKDP 6KDKDU : SURFHGXU]H UyZQRZDJL LWHP F]\QQLN QLH ]RVWDรกD GRVWDWHF]QLH
-$1 &,(&,8&+
> @
UR]VWU]\JQLĊWD NZHVWLD SUyE\ QD NWyUHM Z\NRQXMH VLĊ DQDOL]Ċ F]\QQLNRZą NWyUD VWDMH VLĊ SRGVWDZą NRQVWUXNFML JUXS LWHPyZ : QLQLHMV]HM SUDF\ SU]\ MĊWR UHVWU\NF\MQH Z\PRJL ZDOLGDFML NU]\ĪRZHM =JRGQLH ] W\P XMĊFLHP DQDOL]\ HNVSORUDF\MQH Vą Z\NRQDQH QD LQQHM JUXSLH QLĪ DQDOL]\ NRQ¿UPD F\MQH %URZQH 352%/(0 %$'$ē :à$61<&+
%DGDQLD SUH]HQWRZDQH SRQLĪHM ZSLVXMą VLĊ Z UR]ZRMRZH EDGDQLD QDG :LHONą 3LąWNą V\WXXMąF VLĊ Z WU]HFLP ] Z\PLHQLRQ\FK QXUWyZ EDGDZ F]\FK EDGDQLD NZHVWLRQDULXV]RZH G]LHFL L PáRG]LHĪ\ SU]\ SRPRF\ VSH FMDOQ\FK QDU]ĊG]L EDGDZF]\FK SU]H]QDF]RQ\FK GOD RVyE Z W\P RNUHVLH UR]ZRMRZ\P 1D SRGVWDZLH GRW\FKF]DVRZ\FK EDGDĔ ZáRVNLFK %DUEDUDQHOOL &DSUD UD 5DEDVFD 3DVWRUHOOL KROHQGHUVNLFK 0XULV 0HHVWHUV 'LHGHUHQ RUD] KLV]SDĔVNLFK 'HO %DUULR &DUUDVFR +ROJDGR SRVWDZLR QR KLSRWH]Ċ R SLĊFLRF]\QQLNRZHM VWUXNWXU]H RVRERZRĞFL PLHU]RQHM SU]\ SRPRF\ SROVNLHM ZHUVML %)4 & SROVNLFK GRUDVWDMąF\FK ZH ZF]HVQHM ID]LH DGROHVFHQFML 0(72'$ 262%< %$'$1(
%DGDQLD SU]HSURZDG]RQR ZLRVQą U Z V]NRáDFK SRGVWDZRZ\FK Z ZRMHZyG]WZLH PD]RZLHFNLP L SRGODVNLP2 21%DGDQLD ]RVWDá\ SU]HSURZD G]RQH Z UDPDFK SLHUZV]HJR HWDSX EDGDĔ ORQJLWXGLQDOQ\FK +DUDVLPF]XN 7RF]\áRZVND 5XVMDQ 2VREDPL EDGDQ\PL E\OL XF]QLRZLH NODV 9 L 9, V]Nyá SRGVWDZRZ\FK RUD] XF]QLRZLH JLPQD]MXP %DGDQLX SRGGDQR Q RVyE ĞUHGQLD ZLHNX FKáRSFyZ G]LHZF]ąW EUDNyZ GD Q\FK 8F]QLRZLH Z\SHáQLDOL NZHVWLRQDULXV] SRGF]DV OHNFML Z V]NROH %D GDQLD SURZDG]LOL VWXGHQFL SU]HV]NROHQL Z SURFHGXU]H EDGDZF]HM 2
'DQH ]RVWDá\ ]HEUDQH G]LĊNL SRPRF\ (Z\ %U]H]LĔVNLHM -XVW\Q\ +DUDVLPF]XN 'DULL 3LHWU]DN $QQ\ 3RGOHĞQHM 'RPLQLNL 5XVMDQ 0DáJRU]DW\ 6WRII (Z\ ĝODGHZVNLHM .DUROLQ\ 7RF]\áRZVNLHM RUD] $JDW\ ĩXUDZLĔVNLHM
[ @
3,ฤ &,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ฤ &,
1$5=ฤ '=,(
: EDGDQLDFK Z\NRU]\VWDQR SROVNฤ DGDSWDFMฤ NZHVWLRQDULXV]D GR SRPLD UX FHFK RVRERZRฤ FL G]LHFL %LJ )LYH 4XHVWLRQQDLUH ยฑ &KLOGUHQ YHUVLRQ %)4 -C NWyUHJR DXWRUDPL Vฤ %DUEDUDQHOOL &DSUDUD 5DEDVFD L 3DVWRUHOOL 3ROVNฤ DGDSWDFMฤ SU]\JRWRZDOL &LHFLXFK L 7RF]\รกRZVND : SURFHGXU]H DGD SWDFML ]DVWRVRZDQR Z\PRJL ZรกDฤ FLZH GOD EDGDฤ PLฤ G]\NXOWXURZ\FK %UL VOLQ 1DMSLHUZ VSRU]ฤ G]RQR F]WHU\ QLH]DOHฤชQH WรกXPDF]HQLD QD Mฤ ]\N SROVNL 7รกXPDF]HQLD ]RVWDรก\ SRUyZQDQH L GRNRQDQR Z\ERUX QDMEDUG]LHM RGSRZLHGQLHM IRUP\ 1DVWฤ SQLH GRNRQDQR GZyFK QLH]DOHฤชQ\FK WรกXPDF]Hฤ ]ZURWQ\FK 6WDรก\ VLฤ RQH SRGVWDZฤ G\VNXVML SRSUDZQRฤ FL SROVNLHM ZHUVML SU]HSURZDG]RQHM ] & %DUEDUDQHOOLP 3R ZSURZDG]HQLX VXJHURZDQ\FK SU]H] QLHJR PRG\ยฟNDFML ]PLHQLRQH LWHP\ MHV]F]H UD] SRGGDQR SURFHGXU]H WรกXPDF]HQLD ]ZURWQHJR 2VWDWHF]QLH & %DUEDUDQHOOL ]DDNFHSWRZDรก SROVNฤ ZHUVMฤ ZV]\VWNLFK LWHPyZ .ZHVWLRQDULXV] VNรกDGD VLฤ ] SR]\FML NZHVWLRQDULXV]RZ\FK GR NWyU\FK RVRED EDGDQD XVWRVXQNRZXMH VLฤ QD VWRSQLRZHM VNDOL :VNDฤจQLNL DOID &URQEDFKD SLฤ FLX VNDO ]QDMGXMฤ VLฤ Z WDEHOL 3/$1 $1$/,= 67$7<67<&=1<&+
=JRGQLH ] Z\PRJDPL ZDOLGDFML NU]\ฤชRZHM EDGDQฤ JUXSฤ SRG]LHORQR ORVRZR QD GZLH SRGJUXS\ : MHGQHM Z\NRQDQR VWDW\VW\NL HNVSORUDF\MQH Z GUXJLHM ยฑ NRQยฟUPDF\MQH $QDOL]\ HNVSORUDF\MQH PLDรก\ GZD FHOH 3LHUZ V]\P ] QLFK E\รกD ZHU\ยฟNDFMD ]DรกRฤชHQLD R MHGQRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL PLHU]RQ\FK F]\QQLNyZ : W\P FHOX Z\NRQDQR HNVSORUDF\MQH DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZH GOD NDฤชGHJR F]\QQLND RVREQR ZSURZDG]DMฤ F GR DQDOL]\ LWHP\ NWyUH Z ]DP\ฤ OH DXWRUyZ PLDรก\ PLHU]\รผ GDQ\ F]\QQLN =D NU\WHULXP SU]\Mฤ WR Z\NUHV RV\ SLVND -Hฤ OL WH]D R MHGQRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL F]\QQLNyZ ]RVWDQLH SRWZLHUG]RQD Z\QLNL HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM GOD NDฤชGHJR F]\QQLND ] MHG Q\P Z\PXV]RQ\P F]\QQLNLHP Eฤ Gฤ SRGVWDZฤ NRQVWUXNFML JUXS LWHPyZ ZHGรกXJ SURFHGXU\ ]EOLฤชRQHM GR SURSR]\FML /LWWOHยถD &XQQLQJKDPD 6KDKDUD -HGQDNฤชH Z RGUyฤชQLHQLX RG LFK SURSR]\FML D Z ]JRG]LH ] Z\PR JDPL ZDOLGDFML NU]\ฤชRZHM JUXS\ LWHPyZ Z\]QDF]RQR QD MHGQHM SRGJUXSLH RVyE EDGDQ\FK D NRQยฟUPDFMฤ SU]HSURZDG]RQR QD GUXJLHM 3RQLHZDฤช Z SRG JUXSLH EDGDQHM ZHU\ยฟNRZDQR ]DรกRฤชHQLH R MHGQRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL F]\QQLNyZ
-$1 &,(&,8&+
[10]
Z HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM ZรกDฤ QLH WD DQDOL]D VWDรกD VLฤ SRGVWD Zฤ Z\]QDF]DQLD JUXS LWHPyZ :<1,.,
= FDรกHM JUXS\ EDGDQHM Q Z\ORVRZDQR JUXSฤ RVyE GR DQDOL] HNVSOR UDF\MQ\FK 3R]RVWDรกH RVRE\ ZHV]รก\ Z VNรกDG JUXS\ NWyUHM Z\QLNL SRGGDQR DQDOL]RP NRQยฟUPDF\MQ\P *UXSD RVyE EDGDQ\FK GR DQDOL] HNVSORUDF\M Q\FK OLF]\รกD Q RVyE 3U]\Mฤ WR ]DWHP VWRVXQHN LWHPyZ GR RVyE EDGDQ\FK Z JUXSLH SUDZLH SRQLHZDฤช DQDOL]\ Z\NRQDQR GOD NDฤชGHJR F]\QQLND RVREQR D NDฤชG\ F]\QQLN E\รก EXGRZDQ\ SU]H] LWHPyZ *UXSD GR DQDOL] NRQยฟUPDF\MQ\FK OLF]\รกD Q 6WUXNWXUD ZLHNRZD L SรกFLRZD E\รกD EDUG]R ]EOLฤชRQD : JUXSLH HNVSORUDF\MQHM ฤ UHGQLD ZLHNX Z\QLRVรกD P D RG FK\OHQLH VWDQGDUGRZH VG Z JUXSLH NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM E\รกR WR DQDORJLF]QLH P L VG : JUXSLH HNVSORUDF\MQHM E\รกR FKรกRSFyZ L G]LHZ F]\QHN SR]RVWDรกH RVRE\ QLH ZSLVDรก\ SรกFL : JUXSLH NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM E\รกR FKรกRSFyZ L G]LHZF]\QHN SR]RVWDรกH RVRE\ QLH ZSLVDรก\ SรกFL $1$/,=< (.63/25$&<-1( *583$ 3,(5:6=$
&HOHP DQDOL] HNVSORUDF\MQ\FK E\รกD ZHU\ยฟNDFMD ]DรกRฤชHQLD R MHGQRZ\PLD URZRฤ FL F]\QQLNyZ RUD] NRQVWUXNFMD JUXS LWHPyZ NWyUH ]RVWDQฤ ZSURZD G]RQH GR NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM Z DQDOL]DFK SU]HSURZDG]R Q\FK Z GUXJLHM SRGJUXSLH EDGDQ\FK 1D U\VXQNDFK SU]HGVWDZLRQR Z\NUHV\ RV\SLVND HNVSORUDF\M Q\FK DQDOL] F]\QQLNRZ\FK GOD NDฤชGHJR F]\QQLND RVREQR : WDEHOL SU]HG VWDZLRQR SURFHQW Z\MDฤ QLRQHM ZDULDQFML SU]H] MHG\Q\ F]\QQLN DOID &URQED FKD RUD] รกDGXQNL F]\QQLNRZH LWHPyZ NRQVW\WXXMฤ F\FK GDQ\ F]\QQLN
[11]
3,ĉ&,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ĝ&,
5\V :\NUHV RV\SLVND Z HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM VXPLHQQRĞFL
5\V :\NUHV RV\SLVND Z HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM HNVWUDZHUVML
-$1 &,(&,8&+
[12]
5\V :\NUHV RV\SLVND Z HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM XJRGRZRĞFL
5\V :\NUHV RV\SLVND Z HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM QHXURW\F]QRĞFL
3,ฤ &,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ฤ &,
[ @
5\V :\NUHV RV\SLVND Z HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM RWZDUWRฤ FL
7DE :\QLNL HNVSORUDF\MQ\FK DQDOL] F]\QQLNRZ\FK PHWRGD RVL JรกyZ Q\FK GOD NDฤชGHJR F]\QQLND RVREQR SURFHQW Z\MDฤ QLRQHM ZDULDQFML L รกDGXQ NL F]\QQLNRZH LWHPyZ DOID &URQEDFKD RUD] SU]\SRU]ฤ GNRZDQLH LWHPyZ GR JUXS Z NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM VXPLHQQRฤ รผ
HNVWUDZHUVMD
XJRGRZRฤ รผ
QHXURW\F]QRฤ รผ
RWZDUWRฤ รผ
ZZ
ZZ
ZZ
ZZ
ZZ
DOID
DOID
DOID
DOID
DOID
LW
รกF
JU
LW
รกF
JU
LW
รกF
JU
LW
รกF
JU
LW
รกF
JU
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
12
22
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
11
2
2
2
20
1
1
1
1
1
> @
-$1 &,(&,8&+
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
21
1
1
10
1
:Z ยฑ Z\MDฤ QLRQD ZDULDQFMD LW ยฑ QXPHU LWHPX ZHGรกXJ NZHVWLRQDULXV]D รกF ยฑ รกDGXQHN F]\QQLNRZ\ JU ยฑ JUXSD LWHPyZ Z NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM
1D SRGVWDZLH NU\WHULXP Z\NUHVX RV\SLVND PRฤชQD X]QDรผ ]DรกRฤชHQLH R MHG QRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL EDGDQ\FK F]\QQLNyZ ]D VSHรกQLRQH 'RGDWNRZ\P DUJX PHQWHP MHVW UyZQLHฤช VWRVXQNRZR Z\VRND DOID &URQEDFKD RG GR RUD] VWRVXQNRZR Z\VRNLH รกDGXQNL F]\QQLNRZH QLHPDO ZV]\VWNLFK LWHPyZ -HG\QH Z\Mฤ WNL WR LWHP HNVWUDZHUVMD L LWHP RWZDUWRฤ รผ QD GRฤ ZLDGF]H QLH : SU]\V]รก\FK EDGDQLDFK QDG MDNRฤ FLฤ QDU]ฤ G]LD ZDUWR UyZQLHฤช SRGGDรผ DQDOL]LH LWHP\ L VXPLHQQRฤ รผ RUD] LWHP HNVWUDZHUVMD -HGQDNฤชH SRQLHZDฤช JรกyZQ\P FHOHP DQDOL] E\รก WHVW MHGQRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL F]\QQLNyZ GR DQDOL] NRQยฟUPDF\MQ\FK ZSURZDG]RQR ZV]\VWNLH LWHP\ 8]\VNDQH Z HNVSORUDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM รกDGXQNL F]\QQLNRZH SRV]F]HJyOQ\FK SR]\FML VWDรก\ VLฤ SRGVWDZฤ NRQVWUXNFML JUXS LWHPyZ ZSUR ZDG]RQ\FK GR NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM ZHGรกXJ RSLVDQHM SR Z\ฤชHM SURFHGXU\ UyZQRZDJL LWHP NRQVWUXNW : SLHUZV]HM JUXSLH Z NDฤชG\P F]\QQLNX ]QDOD]รกR VLฤ Z WHQ VSRVyE SLฤ รผ LWHPyZ D Z GZyFK NROHMQ\FK ยฑ SR F]WHU\ 1XPHU\ JUXS GR NWyU\FK SU]\SRU]ฤ GNRZDQR LWHP\ ZHGรกXJ RSLVD QHM SURFHGXU\ ]QDMGXMฤ VLฤ Z WDEHOL SU]\ NDฤชG\P LWHPLH Z QDZLDVLH $1$/,=< .21),50$&<-1( *583$ '58*$
0RGHO WHVWRZDQ\ Z NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM ] SURFHGXUฤ JUXSRZDQLD LWHPyZ SU]HGVWDZLRQR QD U\V
[ @
3,ĉ&,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ĝ&,
5\V 0RGHO NRQ¿UPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM Q
-$1 &,(&,8&+
> @
2V]DFRZDQLH GRSDVRZDQLD RSDUWR QD ZVNDĨQLNX 506($ 3FORVH RUD] &), :VNDĨQLN 506($ URRW PHDQ VTXDUH HUURU RI DSSUR[LPDWLRQ MHVW SR ZV]HFKQLH ]QDQą PLDUą GREURFL GRSDVRZDQLD PRGHOX GR GDQ\FK 506($ RG]ZLHUFLHGOD SR]LRP GRSDVRZDQLD PRGHOX GR PDFLHU]\ NRZDULDQFML ELRUąF SRG XZDJĊ LORĞü VWRSQL VZRERG\ L ZLHONRĞü SUyE\ %URZQ :VNDĨQLN 3FORVH SUREDELOLW\ RI FORVH ¿W MHVW SUDZGRSRGRELHĔVWZHP ĪH 506($ MHVW SRQLĪHM -HĞOL 506($ MHVW SRQLĪHM D 3FORVH MHVW SRZ\ĪHM PRGHO MHVW EDUG]R GREU]H GRSDVRZDQ\ GR GDQ\FK =D DNFHS WRZDOQ\ SR]LRP RGFLĊFLD SU]\MPXMH VLĊ 506($ +X %HQWOHU 0DUVK +DX :HQ :VNDĨQLN &), FRPSDUDWLYH ¿W LQGH[ SRZ\ĪHM X]QDZDQ\ MHVW ]D SUyJ DNFHSWRZDOQRĞFL PRGHOX +X %HQWOHU :VNDĨQLNL GRSDVRZDQLD SLĊFLRF]\QQLNRZHJR PRGHOX GR GDQ\FK Vą Z ĞZLHWOH SU]\ZRáDQ\FK NU\WHULyZ EDUG]R GREUH &KL GI &), 506($ 3&ORVH 6505 2]QDF]D WR SR WZLHUG]HQLH KLSRWH]\ R SLĊFLRF]\QQLNRZHM VWUXNWXU]H RVRERZRĞFL Z RNUHVLH ZF]HVQHM DGROHVFHQFML :DUWR ]ZUyFLü XZDJĊ QD Z\VRNLH NRUHODFMH PLĊG]\ QLHNWyU\PL F]\QQLNDPL ]ZáDV]F]D PLĊG]\ VXPLHQQRĞFLą D RWZDUWRĞFLą U RUD] VXPLHQQRĞFLą D XJRGRZRĞFLą U 6ą WR NRUHODFMH Z\ VRNLH DOH QLH ]E\W Z\VRNLH DE\ QLHPRĪOLZH E\áR ]UyĪQLFRZDQLH W\FK NRQ VWUXNWyZ Z PRGHOX NRQ¿UPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM '<6.86-$ :<1,.Ï:
3UH]HQWRZDQH EDGDQLD ZHU\¿NRZDá\ GRV\ü PRFQą KLSRWH]Ċ SU]\ SRPRF\ GRĞü Z\PDJDMąFHM PHWRG\ +LSRWH]D GRW\F]\áD SLĊFLRF]\QQLNRZHM VWUXN WXU\ RVRERZRĞFL ]DU\VRZXMąFHM VLĊ MXĪ ZH ZF]HVQHM DGROHVFHQFML 'RW\FK F]DVRZH EDGDQLD WDNLH RF]HNLZDQLH X]DVDGQLDá\ %DUEDUDQHOOL &DSUDUD 5DEDVFD 3DVWRUHOOL 0XULV 0HHVWHUV 'LHGHUHQ 'HO %DUULR &DUUDVFR +ROJDGR =DUD]HP MHGQDN Z GRW\FKF]DVRZ\FK EDGDQLDFK VWRVRZDQR JáyZQLH HNVSORUDF\MQą DQDOL]Ċ F]\QQLNRZą ] URWDFMą 3URFUXVWHV OXE GRSXV]F]DQR Z V]HURNLP ]DNUHVLH PRĪOLZRĞü EXGRZDQLD SU]H] GDQ\ LWHP NLONX F]\QQLNyZ Z NRQ¿UPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM : SUH]HQWRZDQ\FK WX EDGDQLDFK ]GHF\GRZDQR VLĊ LQQ\ VSRVyE DQD OL]\ : ]JRG]LH ] ]DOHFHQLDPL L Z\PRJDPL SV\FKRPHWU\F]Q\PL %RUVER RP SU]\MĊWR NRQLHF]QRĞü ZHU\¿NDFML PRGHOX SRPLDURZHJR Z NRQ ¿UPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM MDNR ZDUXQNX DNFHSWRZDOQRĞFL ]DUyZQR
[ @
3,ฤ &,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ฤ &,
PRGHOX MDN L QDU]ฤ G]LD SRPLDURZHJR : V\WXDFML SRZV]HFKQLH ]QDQ\FK SUREOHPyZ ] NRQยฟUPDF\MQฤ DQDOL]ฤ F]\QQLNRZฤ Z PRGHOX :LHONLHM 3Lฤ W NL ]DVWRVRZDQR SURFHGXUฤ JUXSRZDQLD LWHPyZ %DQGDORV )LQQH\ :LOOLPV 2ยถ%R\OH 3RQLHZDฤช SURFHGXUD WD ZLฤ ฤชH VLฤ ] SU]\Mฤ FLHP SHZQ\FK ]DรกRฤชHฤ NWyU\FK QLHVSHรกQLHQLH SURZDG]L GR DUWHIDNWyZ &LHFLXFK ]DVWRVRZDQR WHVW JรกyZQHJR ]DรกRฤชHQLD R MHGQRZ\PLDURZRฤ FL EDGD Q\FK F]\QQLNyZ ]JRGQLH ] SURFHGXUฤ ZDOLGDFML NU]\ฤชRZHM 'RGDWNRZฤ PRW\ZDFMฤ SU]HSURZDG]HQLD WDN Z\PDJDMฤ FHJR WHVWX VWDW\ VW\F]QHJR E\รกD WUHฤ รผ KLSRWH]\ 2F]HNLZDQLH GRW\F]ฤ FH SLฤ FLRF]\QQLNRZHM VWUXNWXU\ FHFK RVRERZRฤ FL XMDZQLDMฤ FHM VLฤ Z VDPRRSLVLH MXฤช Z RNUHVLH ZF]HVQHM DGROHVFHQFML MHVW KLSRWH]ฤ QD JUXQFLH G]LVLHMV]HM ZLHG]\ SV\FKR ORJLF]QHM PRฤชH QLH QD]E\W UDG\NDOQฤ DOH ] FDรกD SHZQRฤ FLฤ QLHRF]\ZLVWฤ -HM QLHRF]\ZLVWRฤ รผ SROHJD QD FLฤ JOH QLHZLHOX HPSLU\F]Q\FK DUJXPHQWDFK QD U]HF] MHM ]DVDGQRฤ FL : WDNLHM V\WXDFML ]GHF\GRZDQR VLฤ QD MHM ZHU\ยฟNDFMฤ ]JRGQฤ ] ]DOHFHQLDPL ZVSyรกF]HVQHM SV\FKRPHWULL EH]Z]JOฤ GQLH Z\PDJD Mฤ FHM ZHU\ยฟNDFML SU]\ SRPRF\ NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]\ F]\QQLNRZHM 0RGHO ]DNรกDGDMฤ F\ SLฤ รผ F]\QQLNyZ RVRERZRฤ FL QHXURW\F]QRฤ รผ HNV WUDZHUVMD RWZDUWRฤ รผ QD GRฤ ZLDGF]HQLH VXPLHQQRฤ รผ L XJRGRZRฤ รผ RND]Dรก VLฤ EDUG]R GREU]H GRSDVRZDQ\ GR ]HEUDQHJR PDWHULDรกX HPSLU\F]QHJR :V]\VWNLH F]\QQLNL Vฤ PLฤ G]\ VREฤ UR]UyฤชQLDOQH D ]DUD]HP NDฤชGD JUXSD LWHPyZ EXGXMฤ W\ONR MHGHQ F]\QQLN 3RQLHZDฤช ZVSyรกF]\QQLNL GRSDVRZDQLD RND]Dรก\ VLฤ EDUG]R Z\VRNLH QLH E\รกR SRWU]HE\ ZSURZDG]DQLD GR PRGHOX PRG\ยฟNDFML SROHJDMฤ F\FK QD ZLฤ ]DQLX MDNLHMฤ JUXS\ ] ZLฤ FHM QLฤช MHGQ\P F]\QQLNLHP 2ND]DรกR VLฤ ]DWHP ฤชH VDPRRSLV RVyE ZH ZF]HVQHM DGROHVFHQFML MHVW RUJD QL]RZDQ\ Z NDWHJRULDFK SRVWXORZDQ\FK SU]H] :LHONฤ 3Lฤ WNฤ 3U]HSURZD G]RQH DQDOL]\ Vฤ UyZQLHฤช DUJXPHQWHP QD U]HF] Z\VRNLHM MDNRฤ FL DGDSWRZD QHJR SU]H] &LHFLXFKD L 7RF]\รกRZVNฤ QDU]ฤ G]LD =DUyZQR DOID &URQEDFKD MDNR ZVNDฤจQLN U]HWHOQRฤ FL MDN L SU]HGH ZV]\VWNLP ยฑ ZVNDฤจQLNL GRSDVRZD QLD PRGHOX Z NRQยฟUPDF\MQHM DQDOL]LH F]\QQLNRZHM MDNR ZVNDฤจQLNL WUDIQR ฤ FL WHRUHW\F]QHM Vฤ QD W\OH Z\VRNLH ฤชH QDU]ฤ G]LH PRฤชH E\รผ Xฤช\ZDQH GR EDGDฤ QDXNRZ\FK =DSUH]HQWRZDQH EDGDQLD QLH Vฤ MHGQDN ZROQH RG Zฤ WSOLZRฤ FL L RJUDQLF]Hฤ ,FK HOLPLQDFMD PRฤชH E\รผ SU]HGPLRWHP QDVWฤ SQ\FK EDGDฤ L DQDOL] 3RGVWD ZRZฤ Zฤ WSOLZRฤ FLฤ D ]DUD]HP SRGVWDZRZ\P S\WDQLHP Z\]QDF]DMฤ F\P NLHUXQNL GDOV]\FK EDGDฤ Vฤ SV\FKRORJLF]QH NRQVHNZHQFMH X]\VNDQ\FK
-$1 &,(&,8&+
> @
Z\QLNyZ +LSRWH]D GRW\F]ฤ FD SLฤ FLRF]\QQLNRZHM VWUXNWXU\ ]RVWDรกD ]ZHU\ ยฟNRZDQD Z GDQ\FK VDPRRSLVRZ\FK %LRUฤ F SRG XZDJฤ SRZV]HFKQLH ]QDQH Zฤ WSOLZRฤ FL ]ZLฤ ]DQH ] SRPLDUHP VDPRRSLVRZ\P ZDUWR E\รกRE\ Z\QLNL X]\VNDQH Z VDPRRSLVLH VNRQIURQWRZDรผ ] Z\QLNDPL X]\VNDQ\PL Z RSLVLH GRUDVWDMฤ F\FK SU]H] URG]LFyZ L QDXF]\FLHOL 3RQDGWR ZDUWR E\รกRE\ HPSL U\F]QLH ]ZHU\ยฟNRZDรผ VWDELOQRฤ รผ SLฤ FLRF]\QQLNRZHM VWUXNWXU\ XMDZQLDMฤ FHM VLฤ MXฤช Z WDN ZF]HVQ\P RNUHVLH 1DOHฤชDรกRE\ ]DWHP SU]HSURZDG]Lรผ EDGDQLD ORQJLWXGLQDOQH Xฤช\ZDMฤ F QDU]ฤ G]LD R ]ZHU\ยฟNRZDQHM MDNRฤ FL SV\FKRPH WU\F]QHM ]D MDNLH QLHZฤ WSOLZLH QDOHฤช\ X]QDรผ Z\NRU]\VWDQ\ Z QLQLHMV]\FK EDGDQLDFK %)4 & :DUWR ZUHV]FLH E\รกRE\ XG]LHOLรผ HPSLU\F]QHM RGSRZLH G]L QD S\WDQLH F]\ VWUXNWXUD RVRERZRฤ FL XMDZQLDMฤ FD VLฤ Z WDN ZF]HVQ\P VWDGLXP UR]ZRMRZ\P PD MDNLHฤ UHDOQH SV\FKRORJLF]QH NRQVHNZHQFMH Z ]DFKRZDQLX GRUDVWDMฤ FHJR %,%/,2*5$),$
$OOHPDQG 0 =LPSULFK ' +HQGULNV - $JH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ ยฟYH SHUVRQDOLW\ GRPDLQV DFURVV WKH OLIH VSDQ 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 3 $OOHPDQG 0 =LPSULFK ' +HUW]RJ & &URVV VHFWLRQDO DJH GLIIH UHQFHV DQG ORQJLWXGLQDO DJH FKDQJHV RI SHUVRQDOLW\ LQ PLGGOH DGXOWKRRG DQG ROH DJH -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ $OXMD $ *DUFLD 2 *DUFLD / 6HLVGHGRV 1 ,QYDULDQFH RI WKH 1(2 3, 5 IDFWRU VWUXFWXUH DFURVV H[SORUDWRU\ DQG FRQยฟ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
[ @
3,ĉ&,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ĝ&,
%RUVERRP ' 7KH DWWDFN RI WKH SV\FKRPHWULFLDQV 3V\FKRPHWULND %ULVOLQ 5 : %DFN WUDQVODWLRQ IRU FURVV FXOWXUDO UHVHDUFK -RXUQDO RI &URVV &XOWXUDO 3V\FKRORJ\ %URZQ 7 $ &RQ¿UPDWRU\ IDFWRU DQDO\VLV IRU DSSOLHG UHVHDUFK 1HZ <RUN *XLOIRUG 3UHVV %URZQH 0 &URVV YDOLGDWLRQ PHWKRGV -RXUQDO RI 0DWKHPDWLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ &LHFLXFK - 6WUXNWXUD F]\QQLNRZD .ZHVWLRQDULXV]D 6W\OyZ 7RĪVD PRĞFL 0LFKDHOD %HU]RQVN\¶HJR ,OH VW\OyZ PLHU]\ ,6, " 3V\FKRORJLD 5R]ZRMRZD &LHFLXFK - 'DYLGRY ( 7HVWLQJ IRU PHDVXUHPHQW LQYDULDQFH RI WKH 394 WR PHDVXUH KXPDQ YDOXHV DFURVV *HUPDQ DQG 3ROLVK VDPSOHV 6XUYH\ 5HVHDUFK 0HWKRGRORJ\ Z GUXNX &URFHWWL ( 5XELQL 0 %HU]RQVN\ 0 0HHXV : %ULHI UHSRUW 7KH ,GHQWLW\ 6W\OH ,QYHQWRU\ ± YDOLGDWLRQ LQ ,WDOLDQ DGROHVFHQWV DQG FROOH JH VWXGHQWV -RXUQDO RI $GROHVFHQFH 'DYLGRY ( 6FKPLGW 3 6FKZDUW] 6 %ULQJLQJ YDOXHV EDFN LQ 7KH DGHTXDF\ RI WKH (XURSHDQ 6RFLDO 6XUYH\ WR PHDVXUH YDOXHV LQ FRXQWULHV 3XEOLF 2SLQLRQ 4XDUWHUO\ 'H )UX\W ) 'H %ROOH 0 0F&UDH 5 7HUUDFLDQR $ &RVWD 3 $VVHVVLQJ WKH XQLYHUVDO VWUXFWXUH RI SHUVRQDOLW\ LQ HDUO\ DGROHVFHQFH WKH 1(2 3, 5 DQG 1(2 3, LQ FXOWXUHV $VVHVVPHQW 'H )UX\W ) 0HUYLHOGH , +RHNVWUD + 5ROODQG - 3 $VVHVVLQJ DGROHVFHQWV¶ SHUVRQDOLW\ ZLWK WKH 1(2 3, 5 $VVHVVPHQW 'HO %DUULR 9 &DUUDVFR 0 +ROJDGR ) )DFWRU 6WUXFWXUH ,QYD ULDQFH LQ WKH &KLOGUHQ¶V %LJ )LYH 4XHVWLRQQDLUH (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJLFDO $VVHVVPHQW 'LJPDQ - 3HUVRQDOLW\ VWUXFWXUH HPHUJHQFH RI WKH ¿YH IDFWRU PR GHO $QQXDO 5HYLHZ RI 3V\FKRORJ\ +DUDVLPF]XN - 5XVMDQ ' 7RF]\áRZVND . /RQJLWXGLQDOQH SR V]XNLZDQLD :LHONLHM 3LąWNL L :LHONLHM ']LHVLąWNL Z G]LHFLĔVWZLH %LXOHW\Q 6HNFML 3V\FKRORJLL 5R]ZRMRZHM +HQGULNV - 3HUXJLQL 0 $QJOHLWQHU $ 2VWHQGRUI ) -RKQVRQ - 'H )UX\W ) +UHELFNRYD 0 .UHLWOHU 6 0XUDNDPL 7 %UDWNR ' &RQQHU
-$1 &,(&,8&+
[20]
0 1DJ\ - 5RGULJXH] )RUQHOOV $ 5XLVHO , 7KH )LYH )DFWRU 3HUVRQDOLW\ ,QYHQWRU\ &URVV FXOWXUDO JHQHUDOL]DELOLW\ DFURVV FRXQWULHV (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ +X / %HQWOHU 3 0 &XWRII FULWHULD IRU ยฟW LQGH[HV LQ FRYDULDQFH VWUXFWXUH DQDO\VLV &RQYHQWLRQDO FULWHULD YHUVXV QHZ DOWHUQDWLYHV 6WUXFWXUDO (TXDWLRQ 0RGHOLQJ /LWWOH 7 &XQQLQJKDP : 6KDKDU * 7R SDUFHO RU QRW WR SDUFHO H[SORULQJ WKH TXHVWLRQ ZHLJKLQJ WKH PHULWV 6WUXFWXUDO (TXDWLRQ 0RGHOLQJ 0DUVK + : +DX . 7 :HQ = ,Q VHDUFK RI JROGHQ UXOHV &RP PHQW RQ K\SRWKHVLV WHVWLQJ DSSURDFKHV WR VHWWLQJ FXWRII YDOXHV IRU ยฟW LQ GH[HV DQG GDQJHUV LQ RYHUJHQHUDOL]LQJ +X DQG %HQWOHUยถV ยฟQGLQJV 6WUXFWXUDO (TXDWLRQ 0RGHOLQJ 0F$GDPV ' 3DOV - $ QHZ %LJ )LYH )XQGDPHQWDO SULQFLSOHV IRU DQ LQWHJUDWLYH VFLHQFH RI SHUVRQDOLW\ $PHULFDQ 3V\FKRORJLVW 0F&UDH 5 7UDLW SV\FKRORJ\ DQG FXOWXUH H[SORULQJ LQWHUFXOWXUDO FRPSDULVRQ -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ 0F&UDH 5 7KH 3K\VLFV DQG &KHPLVWU\ RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ 7KHRU\ 3V\FKRORJ\ 0F&UDH 5 &RVWD 3 3HUVRQDOLW\ WUDLW VWUXFWXUH DV D KXPDQ XQLYHU VDO $PHULFDQ 3V\FKRORJLVW 0F&UDH 5 &RVWD 3 2VRERZRฤ รผ F]รกRZLHND GRURVรกHJR .UDNyZ :\GDZQLFWZR :$0 0F&UDH 5 7HUUDFFLDQR L ZVSyรกSUDFRZQLNyZ 8QLYHUVDO IHDWX UHV RI SHUVRQDOLW\ WUDLWV IURP WKH REVHUYHUยถV SHUVSHFWLYH GDWD IURP FXOWXUHV -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 0F&UDH 5 =RQGHUPDQ $ &RVWD 3 %RQG 0 3DXQRQHQ 6 (YD OXDWLQJ UHSOLFDELOLW\ RI IDFWRUV LQ WKH 5HYLVHG 1(2 3HUVRQDOLW\ ,QYHQWRU\ &RQยฟUPDWRU\ IDFWRU DQDO\VLV YHUVXV 3URFUXVWHV URWDWLRQ -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 0HUYLHOGH , %X\VW 9 'H )UX\W ) 7KH YDOLGLW\ RI WKH %LJ )LYH DV D PRGHO IRU WHDFKHUVยถ UDWLQJV RI LQGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV DPRQJ FKLOGUHQ DJHG \HDUV 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG ,QGLYLGXDO 'LIIHUHQFHV ยฑ 0HUYLHOGH , 'H )UX\W ) 7KH %LJ )LYH 3HUVRQDOLW\ )DFWRUV DV D PRGHO IRU WKH VWUXFWXUH RI FKLOGUHQยถV SHHU QRPLQDWLRQV (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\
[21]
3,ĉ&,2&=<11,.2:$ 6758.785$ 262%2:2ĝ&,
0XULV 3 0HHVWHUV & 'LHGHUHQ 5 3V\FKRPHWULF SURSHUWLHV RI WKH %LJ )LYH 4XHVWLRQQDLUH IRU &KLOGUHQ %)4 & LQ D 'XWFK VDPSOH RI \RXQJ DGROHVFHQWV 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG ,QGLYLGXDO 'LIIHUHQFHV 5RJHUV : 6FKPLWW 1 3DUDPHWHU UHFRYHU\ DQG PRGHO ¿W XVLQJ PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO FRPSRVLWHV D FRPSDULVRQ RI IRXU HPSLULFDO SDUFHOLQJ DOJRULWKPV 0XOWLYDULHWH %HKDYLRUDO 5HVHDUFK 6DULV : *DOOKRIHU , 'HVLJQ HYDOXDWLRQ DQG DQDO\VLV RI TXHVWLRQQDLUHV IRU VXUYH\ UHVHDUFK 1HZ -HUVH\ :LOH\ ,QWHUVFLHQFH 6KLQHU 5 &DVSL $ 3HUVRQDOLW\ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ FKLOGKRRG DQG DGROH VFHQFH PHDVXUHPHQW GHYHORSPHQW DQG FRQVHTXHQFHV -RXUQDO RI &KLOG 3V\FKRORJ\ DQG 3V\FKLDWU\ 7KRPSVRQ - 3URDFWLYH SHUVRQDOLW\ DQG MRE SHUIRUPDQFH D VRFLDO FDSLWDO SHUVSHFWLYH -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG 3V\FKRORJ\ :LOOLDPV / 2¶%R\OH 0HDVXUHPHQW PRGHOV IRU OLQNLQJ ODWHQW YD ULDEOH DQG LQGLFDWRUV $ UHYLHZ RI KXPDQ UHVRXUFH PDQDJHPHQW UHVHDUFK XVLQJ SDUFHOV +XPDQ 5HVRXUFH 0DQDJHPHQW 5HYLHZ