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EESTI ELU reedel, 26. augustil 2022 — Friday, August 26, 2022
Statement by the Prime Minister on Black Ribbon Day
Nr. 34
Ukrainian Independence Day in Toronto
August 22, 2022, Ottawa, Ontario
English-language supplement to the Estonian weekly “EESTI ELU” Tartu College Publications Founding Chairman: Elmar Tampõld Editor: Laas Leivat 3 Madison Avenue, Toronto, ON M5R 2S2 T: 416-733-4550 • F: 416-733-0944 • E-mail: editor@eestielu.ca Digital: www.eestielu.ca
Russian spies, in Ukraine and elsewhere Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, some 400 Russian intelligence operatives with diplomatic cover have been expelled from European countries. According to British sources, this comprises about one half of all Russian spies stationed at its embassies and consulates in Europe. An estimated total of 800 ‘legals’ had never been mentioned before. It excludes the operational assets without diplomatic accreditation, and diplomatic immunity, the ‘illegals’, some of whom are known as ‘sleepers’, vulnerable to arrest and prosecution. They’re reportedly few in number – but a total that’s still unknown. The 400 Russian operatives, declared persona non grata (PNG), is a co-ordinated response to Russia’s invasion in February. They work for at least three separate agencies, often competing for dominance. This time, their competency has seriously suffered in ac curately assessing the proba bility of Russia invading and occupying Ukraine in a blitzkrieg, brief onslaught. Western observers have also suggested a deliberate bias in the advice provided to Putin, conclusions that match Putin’s own expectations, no matter how far removed from reality. Simply put, the intelligence advisers were pandering to his wishful thinking, because the Kremlin has become increasingly averse to information that doesn’t match Putin’s own strategic goals. The first to suffer the consequences of ostensible incompetence was the leadership of the foreign intelligence section of the FSB, the agency that Putin headed before being handpicked by Boris Yeltsin as his crown prince. The FSB (Federal’naya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti), the Federal Security Service, known as the KGB’s offspring, is commonly recognized as a domestic intelligence agency. But it also operates in other previously Soviet occupied countries, except the Baltic states. However, this is rarely considered as a significant factor in noting any differences in the Kremlin’s perception of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as a contrast with Armenia, Turkmenistan, Georgia, etc., all of whom were former
SSR ‘Republics’. Operational beyond the former Soviet territory, is the SVR (Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedkiis), the Foreign Intelligence Ser vice. However, it’s known that the FSB is not limited within its official prescribed jurisdictions and overlaps with the SVR. Before the reorganization of the KGB in the early 1990s, operatives of Russia’s military intelligence service, the GU (formerly GRU, Glavnoye upravleniye, or Main Direc torate) were often mistaken for KGB personnel. This service has remained untouched and unreformed. It was in the jurisdiction of the Defence Ministry and not the disgraced Com munist party. Added to the above is the FSO (Federalnaya Sluzhba Okrhrany), the Federal Pro tective Service, protecting highly -ranked officials. It also fulfills an intelligence role. At initial glance the agencies seem to mirror their Western counterparts. Although each service has its own defined field of responsibilities, they are known to overlap and for the outsider, the picture is confusing, with inter-agency rivalries. But the FSB is seemingly the most dominant of the several agencies, having taken over the FAPSI, (Government Com mu nications and Information, Russia’s signal intelligence service, somewhat equivalent to the US’s NSA (National Securi ty Agency). Russia has spent an inordinate amount on its clandestine services. It’s reported that in 2020 it spent 5.5% trillion roubles ($69 billion US) in this sector, amounting to 28% of its annual budget – 3.5 times the amount spent on education and health – a figure that cannot be confirmed. Putting this into an international perspective is difficult, because intelligence budgets are usually not revealed, thus not credibly compared with other countries. Does the Kremlin get a fair return on its investment? The Russian intelligence sector has taken the brunt of the blame for the war not going to plan. The failure to foresee a unified response of the West was a colossal miscalculation, Kiev’s valiant determination to resist was totally misread, and the inability to predict a ‘mud
The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, today issued the following statement on Black Ribbon Day, the National Day of Remembrance for the Victims of Communism and Nazism in Europe: “Today, we join people from around the world to honour the victims and survivors of communism and Nazism in Europe, and pledge to continue standing up for all those who still face violence and oppression at the hands of authoritarian regimes.
Photo: Ene Timmusk
“Black Ribbon Day marks the anniversary of the MolotovRibbentrop Pact, which was signed on this day in 1939 between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany and resulted in the division of Poland and the annexation of the Baltic states as well as part of Romania by the Soviet Union. “Across Central and Eastern Europe, millions of people suffered tremendously under totalitarian regimes, including Jewish, Romani, Slavic, di s ability, and LGBTQ2 communities. They were robbed of their basic human rights, forced to flee their homes, and murdered. Many of those who escaped the Soviet and Nazi regimes found new homes in Canada and have helped shape the strong and diverse country we know today. Their stories remind us that we all have a responsibility to ensure atrocities like these never happen again. “This year, we also stand in solidarity with the Ukrainian people, who continue to face brutal violence from Russia’s illegal, unjustifiable, and expansionist war of choice in their country. Canada, together with our Allies and international partners, will continue to support Ukraine and stand up for democracy and human rights everywhere.
Marcus Kolga and Andris Kesteris, Latvian National Federation president, at the Ukrainian 31st independence day celebration in Centennial Park. Speakers included Toronto mayor John Tory and Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie. Photo: Peeter Põldre
In marking the regaining of Estonia’s and Latvia’s independence on August 20, 1991, a service was held at St. Peters’s Lutheran Church. Presiding were Dean Mart Salumäe, Rev. Kalle Kadakas and Rev. Dag Demandis. Photo: Peeter Põldre
“On behalf of the Govern ment of Canada, I encourage all Canadians to pay tribute to those who have suffered or lost their lives to totalitarian and authoritarian regimes – past or present. Together, we must continue to reject extremism, intolerance, and oppression, while promoting human rights, freedom, and democracy here in Canada and around the world.”
season’ after a winter assault showed embarrassing incompetence. It’s perfectly ironic that Putin’s government team is flooded with former intelligence officers. This seeming incong ruity was seen as a failure of autocratic regimes to succeed at strategic intelligence. They spend lavishly on covert operations but lack in analysis and
At the organ, Erik Kreem.
assessment. They colour the facts of situations in hues acceptable to the autocrat. They fear the personal and professional peril of telling the truth.
Photo: Peeter Põldre
Autocrats tend to be their own intelligence professionals. In ex-KGB Putin’s case this is amplified. (to be continued) LAAS LEIVAT
