B u y i n g & M e r c h a n d i s i n g Prepared For : Jayne Swallow Prepared By : Haydee Romano Vieira Date : 29/07/2011 Title :Fashion Forecasting : What is the role of the Fashion Forecaster ?
Fashion forecasting: The role of the fashion forecaster Introduction In today’s society, change is unavoidable. Thus, reflects on several sectors, notably in the fashion industry, which is a field in continual movement. There is indeed a constant need to keep up with these alterations and that is when intervenes the fashion forecaster. The purpose of this essay is to determine the role of the fashion forecaster. Moreover, to relate the different procedures and stages that the latter uses in order to draw it’s final conclusion. Thus, will enable to have a broad understanding of this profession and figure which role that the latter plays in a company’s functioning. This study will start with the analysis of the term fashion forecasting. For that, we will first look at the two terms separately and attempt to give a definition for both concepts. Then only, with these information gather, we will combine the two words. Following this in-‐depth definition research, we will then be able to determine the skills and requirements of a fashion forecaster and also attempt to describe the profession. In order to gain an awareness of the different responsibilities that this position entails, we will look at the process of forecasting, and analyse the several strategies that apply. We will continue this study with the analysis of the different factors and generators of changes. Thus, in order to understand how the forecaster justifies his choices. Moreover, we will conclude this study with the description of a trend’s expansion.
Defining the Concept of Fashion Forecasting In the simplest terms, fashion is a style that is popular in the present or a set of trends that have been accepted by a wide audience. Fashion is a complex phenomenon from psychological, sociological, cultural, or commercial points of view. Brannon (2005,p.14) According to theorist’s views, the concept of fashion is based on complexity and thus is influenced by several factors such as economical, socio-‐cultural and psychological... Therefore, fashion is unstable and constantly exposed to change. Even though the concept of change is generated by the two elements the mass media and mass production, the process of fashion change is not mechanichal. Thus, in the sense that it’s speed and influence on people may vary according to the type of movement. Brannon (2005, p.96) compares these changes to movements. According to the author, these fashion movements can follow different directions. As a matter of fact, the theorist recognizes three directional theories: trickle down, trickle across and trickle up. Each trend must be able to fit into one of these categories. Perna (1987) describes fashion as “an expression of the times in which it is created and worn. Fashion responds to whatever is modern-‐that is to the spirit of the times or the Zeitgeist.” Thus, confirms the fact that fashion is a representation of the present. Whilst the concept of fashion is based on the moment, forecasting on the other hand is a projection of the future. The combination of these two terms justifies definition for which Brannon (2005) stands for. The author points the ephemeral side of fashion and the constant need to look forward. Forecasting is a creative process that can be understood, practiced, and applied by anyone who has been introduced to the tools. Brannon (2005) This statement implies the fact that the concept of forecasting intends more than the identification of trends which is a simple activity. It is based on a well-‐structured process which combines creativity and fashion theory. Thus, is reconfirmed by Barbara Kennington (W.G.S.N),
whom affirms that predicting the next trend is a science that is as accurate as predicting the weather. Fashion forecasting requires a wide scan to encompass cultural, economic, and technology issues that have an impact on consumer preferences and spending. Brannon (2005,p.11). The above quote confirms the fact that I order to reflect appropriately the cultural movements, the process of forecasting must be establishing in accordance with several factors. Thus, come from a broad range of sources. Therefore, this study has to be based on an in-‐depth analysis of the socio-‐cultural movements that might influence people in a near future. Forecasting is a process that results from the compromise between the fashion industry, the consumer’s needs as well as the supplier’s. Hines(2002) Thus, admits that the concept of forecasting derives from a negotiation that involves the various actors. It is therefore a decision that comes from an accurate study not from spontaneity. The forecaster must be an individual who is accurate and objective, these qualities are required in order not to let his personal taste intervene in his decision-‐making. According to Brannon’s (2005, p.399) definition, forecasting is the process of anticipating future developments by watching for signals of change in current situations and events and applying the forecasting frameworks to predict possible outcomes. The theorist mentions the observatory part, thus is the basic point of the trend hunt. As a matter of fact, the forecaster starts his observation process by examining meticulously the urban culture. According to Brannon (2005,p.6) Forecasting predicts the future trends and plan its effects. Thus, enables a company to react to the changes. The author perceives the concept of forecasting as a planning tool used by designers and companies in order to keep up with the speed of fashion. The concept of fashion forecasting has started after the second world war 2, with the expansion of retail stores and the development of a society of mass production. The contemporary alternations within the fashion industry illustrate the fact that the business is highly influenced by these predictions.
The author recognizes two types of fashion forecasting specialities, which are classified according to the length, and the process in use. These are named long term forecasting and short term forecasting. Fashion forecasting has been compared to chasing the future with a butterfly net. (Gardner, 1995). The concept It is indeed a chase, as it has to do with the diffusion of trends to the public. Moreover, the concept of forecasting also involves runway reviews, streetstyle, store and window reports… Thus, implies the fact that forecaster is constantly in the field. “The trick to anticipating the future is not to determine what is likely to happen, but what has happened that will create the future”. Peter Drucker The following quote confirms the fact that the forecaster must acknowledge the past in order to predict the future. Therefore, there is a strong correlation between the three tenses. Looking for the new, the fresh and innovative, and then analysing the whys behind it. (1991). Thus, intends the fact that the forecaster must determine the trend but also the latter has to be able to provide a cohesive explanation of the trend’s origins. Fashion forecasters are constantly in search of innovation. There are indeed seeking for novelty Trend forecasting is a form of early adopters of new fashion looks, and based on our experience we’ll draw conclusions on when a particular look is likely to hit the mainstream. This way, we give our clients time to react to forthcoming trends, and get their collections ready in time for the demand. Jaana Jatyri (C.E.O of Trendshop) Fashion forecasting takes place when the public accepts the predictions. In other words, a trend cannot exist without the people’s acceptance. “ Fashion used to come from one source at a time, be it the street, the runways or the entertainment business. The interesting thing about today, is that influences come from high and low-‐everything from couture to Target.” Michael Kors. In agreement with the designer’s statement, there are broad types of sources thanks to the development of new technologies. Thus, can come from the cinema, television, music and so on. The business of forecasting used to be mostly dominated by Paris based agencies such as Promostyl. However, in the past years online trend analysis service WGSN (London)
became one of the world’s reference for forecasting. The agency disposes of 5 other offices around the globe (New York, Tokyo, Melbourne, Hong-‐Kong, Seoul and Los Angeles). It disposes of a list of more than 2200 clients, which include Giorgio Armani, Gap and Calvin Klein,… as well as a staff of approximately 200 people including writers, analysts, trendspotters, researchers, trends and business innovation. McKelvey (2008, p.17). Forecasting agencies offer their service to companies and executives who are willing to pay yearly subscription that can reach $200.000 in order to get hold of the agencies’ analyses. The contemporary market is faddish market, therefore companies tend to use fashion forecasting in order to rapidly position their merchandise into the market. Aware of the different requirements that may change according to the type of these clients, Fashion forecasting agencies offer several services to these companies. Notably by proving them customized consulting which is usually takes in consideration an in-‐depth analysis of the brand and its market with a series of trend books of different categories (menswear, childrenswear, footwear, accessories…) for every season. Moreover, in order to facilitate the search , some reports are classified by cities, materials, sport areas, customer’s segmentation. Hines (2002,p.129) Forecasting requires a sense of organisation
Setting the Forecaster’s Profile “Trends are a common theme “in the air” at a given time, and the job of the forecaster is to be tuned in to the current vibes well enough to pick up what people are into and what they are going to be into.on more practical terms, we check out street style , clubs, fashion- forward stores, young designers, catwalkds ect. To get intimate with what is going on in fashion.” Jaana Jatyri (C.E.O Trendshop) McKelvey (2008,p.76) The function of the fashion forecaster is one of the most complex and vague professions in the fashion industry, in the sense that it implies an in-‐depth understanding of the fashion trends. Fashion is indeed a versatile fieldwork, and source of inspiration for various sectors.
The role of the forecaster requires more than an intuitive sense, the latter also has to be able to detect subtle signals, and simultaneously to be located in strategic places where he will be more likely to witness the emerging trends. As a matter of fact, the forecaster plays a vital role in the fashion industry as it enables companies to keep up with the constant changes. Moreover, it keeps the fashion cycle on the march by constantly providing trends. In other words, the forecaster gives an account of the global influences that will affect the fashion industry and propose a way to illustrate these effects through a selection of fabrics, colours, shape, style and so on. Hines (2002,p.127) Barbara Kennington Creative & editorial director at WGSN said: “ The fashion industry feeds of information’s from the website in order to come up with the hot spot that consumer want at retail at some point.” This quote mentions the fact that forecasters are a key element to the circle of fashion. Thus, is notably due to the fact that forecasters analyse the cultural moves, consumer’s behaviour and lifestyle as well as the different moods in general. They provide to the executives a projection of the future. Whatever their title or hunting strategy, trend chasers enable companies to execute a strategy based on timing. Called strategic windows, this strategy involves timing the firm’s product offerings to the customer’s readiness and willingness to accept and adopt those products. (Abell,1978). In the fashion industry, trends move at a fast speed. Therefore, timing is a determining element for the forecaster. One’s must always be ahead otherwise it might already be late. The idea of planning and forward thinking is integrally part of the profession. Even though, each forecaster has a different approach to track the trends, they all have a common goal, which is to detect the signals that will lead them to the innovative trends. In order to engage the process of trend chase, forecasters will often go scouting for ideas and signs. Thus, by establishing a direct contact with the customer. Aware of the fact that urban culture has a strong impact on fashion movements, forecasters approach people on the streets, take their photographs and interview them in order to have a better understanding of their behaviour and current interests. The customer becomes the starting point of their search. In fact, the latter is the central element of the
forecaster’s study, which starts with an in-‐depth observation of the customer’s habits, and behaviour around the potential market place. The fashion forecaster establishes his trends reviews at least eighteen months before the actual season. The process starts with a focus on colours. In the U.K for instance, the latter must attend a meeting at the B.T.C.G (British Textile and Colour Group). Thus usually takes place in Paris, the event includes a guest list of twenty-‐five executives from different companies. These representatives discuss the up-‐coming colour, fabric trends amongst themselves. This dialogue usually helps them to figure the direction that their study is going to take. The following step is the selection of the colour range. Thus, enables to the forecaster to foresee the choice of fabrics and knitters in accordance with the colour tones. Alongside, the forecaster travels every month around the globe and features approximately five or six fashion capitals. These visits are made in order to have a global overview of the fashion’s movements. The latter keeps track by taking photographs, reviewing the surroundings and cultural events, arts, architecture and the general mood… He usually stays around the city for two days. Where the later also attend trade shows, catwalks, and exhibitions in order to broad his perspective. Following all these information’s, the forecaster is able to set a visualization of the key trends. Thus include visual maps, moodboards, collages and but also reports and analysis and notes. By setting this visual representation, it becomes easier for the forecaster to engage an efficient way to communicate these trends to the clients. Moreover, the inspiration book also enables to give an overview of the fashion concept. Thus, establishes certain logic for a third part to understand.
According to Brannon (1995, p.6) a forecaster can be anyone disposing of the tools and skills required for this role. The latter must be sensible to popular culture and changes. Thus, is due to the fact that the cultural factor plays an essential role in the estimation of
trends. Fashion forecasters are in constant search of styles, ideas, change of behaviours, adoption of new lifestyles. The forecaster is an observer that puts all his skills and knowledge in use, in order to detect the emerging trends. However, the role requires more than observation, as the latter often has to justify his choices with the help of a framework. Thus, is also called trend book, a folder that explains the origins and expansion of the trend as well as the supposedly duration of the latter. Thus, indeed results from an in-‐depth analysis of the trend, it is a summary of the main points from the beginning of the trend to it’s end. It has for purpose to guide executives in their understanding of the fashion changes. Whilst other take part to the fashion movement, the forecasters on the other hand efforts to comprehend its process. Thus, by analysing its origins. In order to achieve this goal, the latter must adopt two roles: the participant and the spectator. Brannon (2005,p.20) As a matter of fact, the fashion forecaster must be polyvalent. Thus, in the sense that he should be able to stay distant to the movement and simultaneously stay immerse into the latter in order to have an in-‐depth understanding the phenomenon. The forecaster stands in the middle of a constantly shifting fashion scene and translates ambiguous and conflicting signals to provide support for business decisions. Although they work with textile fabrications, colours, and style, their real job is to predict the preferences of consumers in the future. Brannon (2005, p.30). The author points out the fact that the forecaster occupies a strategic position, in the sense that he is the direct connection between the consumer’s future interests and the company. It is in fact the forecaster that decodes the global influences and diffuses the collected information to the company. Thus, by supplying presentations, inspiration books, analysis and reports…Moreover, the predictions of the forecaster are decisive to the company as the latter have a strong influence on the well functioning of the business. “It is great to be on a product that people want to buy, we are involved in sort of service that people love.” Barbara Kennington (Creative editorial director at W.G.S.N) Even though the forecaster must take in consideration the different fabrics, colours and
trends in order to establish his analysis, his primary focus is on the costumer. Thus, is logical due to the fact that it is the customer that will make a purchase at some point. It is indeed the customer that establishes the success of a trend, thus by choosing to adopt it or to reject it. In agreement with O’Neill (1989) stance, who claimed: “Nothing will succeed in fashion if the public is not ready for it”. “We forecast trends as a full-time job, which extends to much of our waking hours, and that means that we spend probably ten times more time pondering and analysing trends than someone who just does it casually among their other activities.” Jaana Jatyri The forecaster can work for various types of companies such as a trend agency, textiles companies, advertising firms, designers, or an apparel manufacturers… It is a demanding profession as it requires attention and a good sense of analysis. The emergence of new technologies has relatively ameliorate the role of the forecaster, thus has enable to diminish the number of trips. Notably with the use of online forecasting services. Moreover, the internet also offers immense possibilities of research tools.
Reporting Trends
Trends are usually represented in the form of a curve. These are according to their starting date and duration. Disposition of a variability of length, the short trends are called fads whilst the long ones are named classics.
A trend forecast should identify the source, underlying patterns, direction and tempo if the trend. (Brannon). In agreement with this statement, a trend forecast must be based on an accurate analysis as it does not involve the transcription of personal perceptions. Moreover, the predictions have to give a path through the information; it is more of a study based on an analysis than an ensemble of information. “You feel that these elements will come together in this way. You can’t guaranty it but you are sure it will because of experience.” Barbara Kennington (Creative editorial director at W.G.S.N). As a matter of fact, even though the forecasts are based on an accurate study, these are not always precise. Thus, is explained by the fact that trends are subject to unexpected events which might alternate propagation of the latter. Furthermore, despite the fact that most trends emerge from urban culture, there are no guaranty that these will be accepted by the consumers.
Conclusion We arrive to the conclusion that the forecaster plays a key role in the fashion business. The later is essential to the well functioning of the fashion cycle. Thus, by reporting the trends to the clients, the forecaster permits it to keep on the march. Moreover, by providing the information, the forecaster enables these companies to coordinate their collection in accordance with the predictions. Therefore, the forecaster is a direct intermediary between the industry and the customers. The forecaster is the oracle of the fashion business, it offers an overview of the changing world. As a matter of fact, the latter acts as a translator of the global influences. The trend hunter provides to the clients full reports on the up-‐coming trends. Ahead with the time, this profession requires strong sense of organisation combined with creativity. Moreover, the process of trends estimation is based on various sources such as music, sports, economical factors, change of lifestyle, urban culture… One’s must be able to read through these sources and communicate the information accurately. Moreover, the latter has constantly to play a double role in the sense that he must take part in the fashion movement but with the use of critical mind. The role of the fashion
forecaster entails important responsibilities, considering that the consistency of the fashion business is based on his predictions. Overall, the main purpose of fashion forecasting is to enable retailers to provide the right product at the right time.
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