Special Edition for COP16
Adapting to Climate Change in the Andes
Climate Change Adaptation Programme An innovative approach at local and national level
The Climate Change Adaptation Programme (PACC) is a bilateral initiative of the Peruvian Ministry of the Environment and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation implemented by the Regional Governments of Cusco and Apurimac and facilitated by a consortium led by Intercooperation, Libelula and Predes.
Peru’s vulnerability to climate change Peru is a highly vulnerable country to climate change, not only due to structural drivers such as poverty and inequality, but also due to expected impacts on ecosystems of global importance, such as glaciers. One of the factors that sets Peru’s vulnerability is its high exposure degree to glacier retreat: Despite having 70% of the world’s tropical glaciers, many of them are experiencing an alarming retreat (decrease of 30% of its mass in a period of 40 years). In addition, there is an imbalance between population density in different regions of the Peruvian territory and the spatial distribution of water resources (70% of the population lives in the desert coast, where 1.7% of available water is produced and 30% of the population lives in the Andes and the Amazonia, where 98.3% of available water is produced). Peru is one of the most affected countries by hydrometeorological phenomena associated with El Niño. To date, 72% of registered emergencies are related to these phenomena, (droughts, heavy rains, floods, frosts, hailstorms, avalanches, landslides, etc.) and have experienced an increase of over 6 times from 1997 to 2006. Moreover, it is likely that the El Niño intensifies in the coming decades. A better organization of the society in order to manage risks and deal with emergencies arising from natural disasters that are increasing every year is required. On the other hand, while Andean societies have implemented autonomous adaptation measures to adapt to climate variability, which is typical of the mountain ecosystems they inhabit; these measures are not enough to tackle climate change, requiring planned initiatives to increase the capacity for adaptation of different actors.
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Vulnerable Peru: Characteristics recognized by the UNFCCC Peru presents seven of the nine characteristics related to countries whose needs and concerns arising from the adverse effects of climate change shall be met by taking actions related to funding, insurance and technology transfer. These characteristics, recognized by the UNFCCC are as follows: Low-lying coastal areas Arid and semi-arid areas, forested areas and areas liable to forest decay Areas liable to drought and desertification Areas prone to natural disasters Areas of high urban atmospheric pollution Areas with fragile ecosystems, including mountainous ecosystems
Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products
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Facts
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In the last 30 years 22% of the glacier extension has been lost, representing a loss of 12 000 million cubic meters of water. 20% of these glaciers are located in the Vilcanota Mountain Range, in the Cusco region.
By 2030, annual precipitation could show deficiencies, mainly in the highlands, in a range between -10% and -20%.
By 2025 the impact of climate change on the Peruvian economy is estimated to represent losses of US$ 10 000 million annually, equal to 4.4% of the country’s production value (Andean Community)
By 2050, water availability could be reduced by 60%.
By 2030, the minimum air temperature could rise between 0.4 C° and 1.4 C°.
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Source: Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, 2010.
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About PACC The implementation phase of PACC has a time frame of three years (February 2009-January 2012), in which it will strengthen the capacity of regional and local stakeholders in the Cusco and Apurimac regions to confront the impacts of climate change. The specific objective of PACC is to promote the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies and measures by the local population and public and private institutions, as well as to capitalize on knowledge and allow dialogues on public policies at different levels.
Where is PACC being implemented?
Cusco region Apurimac region Area: 20895.8 km2 418,882 inh. 20 hab/km2 Poverty rate: 69.5%
Mollebamba watershed
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Area: 71986 km2 1´171,503 inh. 16.3 hab/km2 Poverty rate: 75.3%
Huacrahuacho watershed
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Results PACC has four major areas of outputs
Result 1
Result 2
Result 3
Result 4
Knowing vulnerabilities
Monitor and inform
Act
Learn and to engage in political dialogue
Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation conditions to climate variability in Cusco and Apurimac regions, developed with the participation of authorities, institutions and affected population
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Regional information system for climate change adaptation in Cusco and Apurimac regions.
Adaptation measures implemented, in agreement with local and regional stakeholders
Public policies at local, regional and national levels. International negotiation processes contain proposals generated by PACC´s actions.
Bulletin - Special Edition for COP16
Strategy PACC works at both the local and national level
National / Global Use of global science on climate change Engaging in the international process Mainstreaming in development processes
Coherence and Driving a National Adaptation Plan policies articulation
Strategies and information systems Pilot experiences Knowledge generation
Local / Regional
At local - sub-national level PACC is: a) Developing scientific knowledge while revaluing traditional knowledge, b) Promoting local pilot projects on climate change adaptation, c) Promoting the formulation of adaptation strategies and their mainstreaming, as well as instruments for development planning and public investment.
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At national - global level PACC is: a) Using and applying information on global climate scenarios, b) Supporting the country’s efforts in international climate change negotiations, c) Supporting the development of a national framework for climate change adaptation. The implementation of this dual dynamic will be fostered through coherence and linkages between local and regional policies and processes, promoted in accordance with the established national policy framework on climate change adaptation. In turn, this policy is expected to incorporate knowledge from local and regional experiences in adapting to climate variability and to climate change.
Developing scientific knowledge while revaluing traditional knowledge,
Supporting the country’s efforts in international climate change negotiations,
Supporting the development of a national framework for climate change adaptation.
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Inter-institutional and participatory management model to tackle climate change The Climate Change Adaptation Programme (PACC from its Spanish acronym) operates under a complex institutional organization that links actors from different levels: international, national, sub-national (regional) and local levels under different roles, responsibilities and contributions: scientists, planners and development managers, and communities. PACC seeks to promote involvement and ownership from the beginning of its implementation.
PACC works at the following levels: National: PACC works with the Ministry of Environment of Peru, participating and supporting the process and activities of the Ministry’s Climate Change, Desertification and Water Resources Department. Furthermore, this office monitors and guides PACC’s Development. PACC is aligned to the Ministry’s priorities, supporting processes such as updating the guidelines for the formulation of the Climate Change Regional Strategies, based on the recovery of the lessons learnt by those regions having participated in these processes within the country. Moreover, PACC has supported the generation of inputs for the development of a National Adaptation Plan. In addition, and in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Peru, PACC actively contributes to the development of updated guidelines for the incorporation of risk analysis in public investment projects, including criteria for Adaptation to Climate Change.
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Sub-National: PACC works with the regional governments of Cusco and Apurimac, which lead its regional implementation under a model that enhances a shared management and coordination between these regional governments and PACC’s Coordination Unit. PACC works with regional operating units involving representatives of the regional governments’ management offices: Natural Resources Management, Planning and Budget, Social Development and Economic Development. This model has established a pattern in the way of collaboration between governmental levels and international cooperation. Local: With local governments, communities and families of the prioritized watersheds who lead the management of pilot adaptation projects.
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PACC is working to facilitate exchanges and knowledge generation between these levels. For the operation of PACC, it is a priority to achieve a technical-scientific and political coordination and organization, involving: a) Agreement for the shared management of the Program with the regional governments of Apurimac and Cusco. b) Scientific and technical agreement for carrying out research and its methodological coordination and integration which involves extensive interaction with multiple actors involved (Swiss scientific and technical institutions, national and regional institutions). c) Political-institutional agreement for the establishment and operation of the Regional Technical Groups on Climate Change, as public-private inter-institutional spaces that support the participatory generation of public policies for adapting to climate change.
PACC – second-tier actor is facilitating and articulating processes and promoting knowledge exchange Learning about methodologies and instruments, contribute to policies
National level
Ministry of Environment
Regional level
Regional Governments
(sub-national)
Local level
Local Governments
Participation in executing, tracking and monitoring the programme; through its Direction of Climate Change.
Lead the regional implementation, supported by PACC, under a model of co-management.
Lead the management of the localpilot projects on adaptation to climate change.
Capacity strengthening to design and implement climate change strategies
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Research The research in PACC takes place at two levels: regional (in Apurimac and Cusco) and local (Huacrahuacho and Mollebamba micro-watersheds). Research is carried out by Peruvian regional (sub-national) and national technical-scientific institutions, which receive support from Swiss scientific entities. The studies cover a wide range of themes linked to climate change and contribute to a better understanding of its impacts on the rural populations of Cusco and Apurimac and their livelihoods. These studies, which are building research for action, take place in various sectors: CLIMATE
• Climate characterization and climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 in Apurimac and Cusco
WATER
• Assessment of current and future water resource availability in main basins • Assessment of current and future water demand in main basins • Water conflict analysis
AGRICULTURE
• Climate sensitivity analysis of priority crops for food security. • Climate change impact assessment on crop productivity.
RISKS
• Historical analysis of extreme weather events and impacts. • Current and future physical territorial sensitivity analysis. • Analysis of risk from climate hazards to social and economic infrastructure.
CULTURE
• Analysis of the perceptions of rural people in the southern Andes of local effects of climate change and its impact on their lives. • Recognition (and collection) of traditional adaptation measures. • Analysis of how traditional knowledge can be better used for climate prediction and participative validation of adaptation measures
ECONOMY
• Socio-economic scenarios and economic studies of costs of climate change impacts.
The program has already concluded local research and investigation activities at sub-national (regional) level are in process.
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Facts: Research on water resource 1
129 conflicts
In the Huacrahuacho watershed, 129 out of 284 conflicts identified are related to social and environmental issues. In both watersheds the number of environmental conflicts has risen notoriously since 2007.
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42% does not have access to water services One factor that characterizes the vulnerability to climate change in the Huacrahuacho watershed is the lack of secure water: 42% of the watershed’s population does not have access to water services.
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12mm/year
In the Huacrahuacho watershed, a decreasing trend in precipitation (12mm/year) has been identified since 1994 and a sharp drop in baseflow since 2009.
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Precipitation has intensified
In the Mollebamba watershed, precipitation has intensified in a shorter timeframe since 2000, increasing the erosive potential of the soils.
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Access to water is inequitable Access to water resources for irrigation is inequitable within the communities. This situation could be exacerbated in scenarios where water availability decreases.
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Limited effectiveness
Institutional interventions through projects related to the management of water resources could have a limited effectiveness if these are not framed within a climate change adaptation plan elaborated in a participative and coordinated manner.
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First Lessons Changing trends in the availability of natural resources are consistent with farmers’ perceptions Local investigations have succeeded in producing significant findings in relation to the major problems that climate change is causing on two pilot watersheds identifying changing trends in the availability of natural resources that will impact peasants’ livelihoods who depend on these resources. These changing trends are: •
Decadal changes in precipitation patterns: In Mollebamba watershed, the increase of the coefficient of variation per decade (1990-1997 = 0.15, and 2000-2008 = 0.20), is generating a greater variability in rainfall. In Huacrahuacho watershed, a decreasing trend in precipitation (-12mm/year) has been identified since 1994 and a sharp drop in baseflow since 2009.
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Increased pluviometric aggressiveness, which causes more soil erosion: Measured by the Modified Fournier Index, an indicator of pluviometric aggressiveness. In Mollebamba, this index has been increasing since 2000 (1990-1997 = 146, and 2000-2007 = 156), increasing the erosion potential of soils.
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Maximum and minimum temperatures: There is a changing trend in extreme temperatures in the Apurimac region; the maximum temperatures increase and the minimum decrease.
In short, greater variability and aggressiveness in rainfall (this in steep areas like the Andes means a greater risk of landslides, inundations and others); decreasing trend of water supply in high altitude areas; increase of daily and seasonal temperature range, which affects the phenological development of crops and yields, favours the appearance of pests and diseases in crops and livestock, and impacts on human health.
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These findings provide an indication of the manifestations of climate change in the Andes and they are consistent with farmers’ perceptions, showing the occurrence of significant changes in weather conditions in recent decades, several of which have strong relationships with water resources, such as:
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The shift in precipitation patterns in their timing and intensity. The onset of rains has moved from the month of September to November or December and currently, heavy rains occur more frequently in shorter periods. The expansion of the daily temperature range, the daily maximum temperature is higher and the daily minimum temperature is lower. It has also been noticed that frosts period has been extended and it is more intense and unpredictable. The shift in wind patterns that show an increased occurrence of more intense winds, especially during the months of August and September. The increased solar radiation and evapotranspiration, which increases the withering of pasture and natural vegetation during the dry season and generate a higher evaporation rate on the surface of water bodies.
These dynamics, where the findings obtained through scientifically based research meet the evidence from perceptions of the Andean population, strengthens the results obtained, which also determine the unsustainability of certain economic activities and the need to redefine development strategies, at local and sub-national levels.
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Disagreements between climate trends and local development trends that force the redefinition of development strategies In recent decades, there have been significant changes in rural productive activities in Huacrahuacho (Cusco), one of the watersheds investigated. These productive activities that were mainly agricultural in the past are now livestock-oriented. This is a process that began with the introduction of native cattle, and then with improved cattle (Brown Swiss), and the introduction of cultivated pastures, with the aim of increasing milk production for cheese making and improving incomes of rural families. However, currently everything points to establish that this activity will not be sustainable in a climate change scenario, for raising cattle and cropping of grasses are activities highly demanding of water, and the trend in water availability goes in the opposite direction. This evidence is important because the findings in this watershed may be a sign of what may be happening across a large sector of the region of Cusco region, in the so-called upper-land provinces. The identification of development trends that are in conflict with trends in the availability of natural resources has not only been found in Cusco-Huacrahuacho but also in MollebambaApurimac. In this region, the increased mining activity in the context of a government policy that encourages this activity is competing for the use of water. This usually results against population needs and interests, agricultural and environmental uses, becoming a focus of present and future social conflicts. In Mollebamba watershed, the projected increase in mining activity, can also affect the ecosystem and particularly the water resources, especially since studies have found that the levels of lead in water, at present, are above the maximum permissible for human consumption.
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First lessons arising from local research on climate change and its impacts on high mountain environments a) In high mountain ecosystems, means are not sufficient. Verticality is a concept to consider in these environments, therefore the need to manage differentiated information according to watershed location; upstream, downstream. This is due to the fact that climate, water, production, and people are different depending on their location. When considering the data, it is also important to manage their seasonality. It is therefore very important to consider the deviation and not only the mean. b) It is necessary to have available historical meteorological and hydrological data to differentiate climate change impacts from climate variability, which is inherent to high mountain ecosystems and is exacerbated by climate change. It is also important to have data in other climatic variables, in addition to temperature and rainfall, such as wind, humidity and radiation. c) The Andean rural population knowledge is important, valid and relevant. Their “signals� and/or bioindicators used to interpret and predict atmospheric phenomena related to agriculture and daily life should complement and strengthen the scientific perspective, especially in contexts where quantitative data is weak and highly uncertain. Therefore, in traditional communities, the study of climate change requires to be strengthened through dialogue and intercultural awareness. d) Local research on climate change requires an integrated and interdisciplinary view, for understanding the complex concatenation of impacts that global climate change generate at the local level. But also to understand the importance of local environmental conditions in shaping these effects, since processes such as the drainage of wetlands, deforestation and overgrazing also generate significant local climate change. This requires overcoming the lack of tradition and experience of interdisciplinary research in the country, which in turn demands special effort to build unifying concepts, to reach common methodological approaches, and to socialize and exchange findings and their interpretation. e) Research and adaptation strategies and measures arising from its results, will tend to have higher receptive conditions and social response when tuned with local knowledge based on experiences. Therefore, long term climate change scenarios do not facilitate decision making or the implementation of adaptation actions. The challenge is to produce local scenarios with higher spatial resolution and for the short term.
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Implementing pilot measures to adapt to climate change at the local level The direct impacts of climate change occur locally, mainly affecting the livelihoods of rural people, who are also the most vulnerable due to poverty conditions that predispose them to greater harm. In this sense, PACC promotes that the adaptation measures in the intervening watersheds have a solid base of knowledge, targeting the reduction of vulnerabilities in the context of communities and families, and therefore pose a transformative dimension. Only in this way, adaptation may also constitute a strategy that contributes with improvement of life quality and the development of local populations. Based on research studies at local level on the impacts of climate change and climate variability in Mollebamba (Apurimac) and Huacrahuacho (Cusco) watersheds, adaptation pilot experiences have started in both basins. The experiences have been agreed with the local municipalities and social organizations, and prioritize adaptation measures on the following topics: water management, food security and disaster risk reduction, and involve processes of capacity building of local actors. As a first activity in the process of definition and implementation of the adaptation pilot measures, the types of the measures to be drawn from the results of local research were identified. This was done in order to prioritize the lines of action to be promoted for the implementation of the measures. In this regard, the potential mechanisms for the promotion of the pilot measures were examined, concluding that the peasants’ contests are the appropriate means of achieving mass participation and the adoption of new practices and innovations by the mobilizing effect of the incentives, the capacity-building methodology and the support from “peasant to peasant�. The municipalities involved in the pilot watersheds were consulted throughout the process.
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The peasants’ contest for the implementation of the adaptation measures is called APU RITTI RAYMI (Festival of Sacred Snow-capped Mountain) and it was launched in July 2010 in both watersheds where PACC operates. To date, there are 1429 participating families from the 21 communities located in the watersheds of Mollebamba and Huacrahuacho.
The projected benefits of the peasants’ contests are: • • •
By December 2011, 25% of the families in Mollebamba and in Huacrahuacho watersheds will be applying at least two pilot climate change adaptation measures related to water management, farming systems and disaster risk management. At least 70% of the contestant families have changed their ways of managing crops and livestock. 60% of communities in each watershed have implemented agreements to promote adaptation measures in relation to water management, farming systems and risk management.
Simultaneously, PACC co-finances municipal projects for climate change adaptation in the watersheds where it works, prioritized by local stakeholders and related to the topics of food security in conditions of climate change and the harvesting of water and the improvement of agricultural technologies.
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Factors for success policy influencing PACC supports the regional decision-makers of Cusco and Apurimac in the process of formulating a regional policy on climate change; influencing, with scientific support, in the reaching of a concerted vision and an interinstitutional and social joint action to achieve climate resilient development. This process also involves the active participation of local stakeholders in smaller territorial spaces (provinces), which gives greater social legitimacy to the process. Some of the actions that have been made to influence regional public policy on climate change were: •
Access to information about climate change: build bridges between scientific and political community,
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Provision of first hand experiences from the field with climate change adaptation and mitigation,
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PACC’s participation in different events (self-organized and others) contributes to place the topic and to create awareness among different stakeholders,
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Strengthening capacities of stakeholders in order to influence policy development (e.g. diplomado, workshops, trainings, specialized short courses),
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Create public awareness through presence in the media,
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Establish alliances with other donors and programs working on the topic and in the regions,
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Inclusion of the topic in the political agenda: raising public awareness among candidates for regional elections 2011 (e.g. organization of public debates). Climate Change Adaptation Programme
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Climate Change Adaptation Programme – PACC H-10 José Santos Chocano, Santa Mónica, Wanchaq Phone: (51)(84)235229 | Fax: (51)(84)232617 Cusco, Peru 857 Ricardo Palma Ave, Miraflores 18, Lima Phone: (51)(1)444-0493 Lima, Peru e-mail: pacc@intercooperation.org.pe www.adaptacionalcambioclimatico.info www.noticias.paccperu.org.pe Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/pages/Programa-deAdaptacion-al-Cambio-Climatico-PACC-Peru/104323832951242?ref=ts