SET Analysis
Wind Energy Update 2012 Jos Beurskens SET Analysis
Photo Jos Beurskens
Jos Beurskens
(TUDelft, ECN)
The 2012 Curaçao Conference/Expo on the future of Durable Energy Willemstad, 30 March 2012 2012-03-30
1
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Wind Energy Update 2012
This presentation • Technology developments; what were the essential innovations? • Emergence of off-mainstream applications (offshore) • Development & perspectives of offshore wind energy • Market development • Concluding remarks
2012-03-30
2
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
1. Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
2012-03-30
3
Drive trains
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
SET Analysis
Classical drive train
Jos Beurskens
Permanent magnets ENERCON
Zephyros
Direct drive HTS (high temperature super conductivity)
2012-03-30
4
Electrical conversion
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Variable speed (variable blade pitch)
2012-03-30
• Control abilities comparable with regular electricity plant • Control of voltage, reactive power, output power • Fault ride through ability
5
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
Multi parameter control: • Maximising electric output • Capacity factor • Minimising fatigue loads • Safety systems • Overall stability (active vibration control) • Advanced sensors (LIDAR)
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Control strategies
Siemens SWT- 2.3-113 Direct-Drive WTG LiDAR (Qinetiq ZephiR)
2012-03-30
6
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Up scaling
Generating capacity = own consumption
2012-03-30
7
Up scaling
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
mass ~ (D³) cross section ~ (D²) stress (= mass/cross section) ~ D
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
For the engineer:
2012-03-30
For the economist: investment cost ~ (D³) energy output ~ (D²) COE (= inv. cost/energy output) ~ D
Development of advanced materials with a higher strenth to mass ratio
8
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Up scaling
2012-03-30
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
Cost of support structures are dominant and are relatively insensitive to load carrying capacity
The wind turbines should be as big as possible !
9
Up scaling
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Size matters
From: Gijs van Kuik
2012-03-30
10
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Consequences of up scaling
2012-03-30
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
• Extreme up scaling only possible if materials with low mass to strength ratio become available • Distributed aerodynamic control needed
11
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology Up scaling: weight requirements for blades
30,00
Gl-P HLU Gl-P RI
25,00
Gl-Ep RI Gl-Ep Prep
Blade Mass (tn)
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Technology Evolution with Blade Size
20,00
Gl-C Hybrid 1 Gl-C Hybrid 2
15,00
New Tech 1 New Tech 2
10,00
New Tech 3 REFERENCE
5,00
Ep Prep P RI
0,00 10
20
30
40
50
Rotor Radius (m )
60
70
P HLU Hybrid
Source: UpWind; CRES, GR
2012-03-30
12
Distributed blade control
Essential innovations in wind turbine technology
SET Analysis
Distributed blade control necessary
Jos Beurskens
Wind field
Photo: Jos Beurskens
2012-03-30
13
Onshore; visual impact
Intermezzo
More energy from a location without increase of negative visual impact.
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Other advantages of up scaling:
2012-03-30
14
Onshore; visual impact
Intermezzo
More power per km of line lay-out (P> aD)
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Other advantages of up scaling:
P: power H: height of tower D: rotor diameter
15
Intermezzo
Onshore; visual impact
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Other advantages of up scaling:
Larger rotor diameter implies lower rotor speed Vtip _____________
= λ = V wind ongestoord Ω =
Ω.R Vwind ongestoord
_____________
λ.Vwind ongestoord _______________ R
Ω ~
1 R
____
16
From wind turbine
to
Wind power system
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
2. Essential innovations in wind power systems
2012-03-30
17
Essential innovations in wind power systems
Grid connection of offshore wind farms
• Distance from wind farm to connection point to national grid (L1, L2) or to (future) sea grid (L1a, L2a) • Capacity and geographical distribution of wind power capacity
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Grid architecture depends on:
L1a
L2a
••••• •••• •••
L1
••••• •••• ••• L2 Photo Jos Beurskens
2012-03-30
18
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Grid connection of offshore wind farms
Essential innovations in wind power systems
HVAC vs. HVDC connection (~10 km)
34 kV
150 kV
AC (~23 km) 22 kV
Future
150 kV
9 - 150 kV
(>120 km)
AC
DC
10 - 36 kV
2012-03-30
19
Essential innovations in wind power systems
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Grid connection of offshore wind farms
2012-03-30
20
Essential innovations in wind power systems
Wind synergies with Interconnectors => Multi-terminal HVDC
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Grid connection of offshore wind farms
2012-03-30
21
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Wind farm lay-out
2012-03-30
Essential innovations in wind power systems
Increasing output & decreasing output variability by:
• Different lay-out of arrays • Wind farm/turbine control
22
Essential innovations in wind power systems
u
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Wake interaction
2012-03-30
23
Essential innovations in wind power systems
Wind farm output and wind direction
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Variability power output
Torben J. Larsen, Risø-DTU
2012-03-30
24
Essential innovations in wind power systems
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Variability power output
New lay-out of Horns Rev 2
2012-03-30
25
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
3. Off-mainstream applications
2012-03-30
26
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
3. Off-mainstream applications
Remote Rural Islands Cold Climate
Mainstream Wind Power
Mainstream Wind Power
Offshore
Hot Deserts
VTT
2012-03-30
27
Maturity of the technologies
Off-mainstream applications
Rated power [MW]
Grid connected turbines; wind farms offshore
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
10
1
Grid connected turbines; medium scale
Grid connected turbines; wind farms on land
Hybrid systems (AWDS) 0.1
Grid connected turbines; small scale
0.01
Circle areas indicate maturity
Autonomous & Hybrid (W-PV)
Rotor diameter [m]
0
2012-03-30
25
50
75
100
125
28
Small wind turbine pioneers; the reference case
3. Off-mainstream applications
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Manufacturers of small wind turbines pioneered the emergence of modern wind turbine technology
Lagerwey [Beurskens]
Windmatic (DK) [Beurskens]
2012-03-30
Enertech (USA) [Beurskens]
Allgaier (D) [Beurskens]
Carter (USA) [Beurskens]
Amstrong (UK) [Beurskens]
29
Modern small wt’s: 8 out of 650
3. Off-mainstream applications
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
No certification. Standards not appropriate. Blade throw distance independant from rotor diameter.
Not all work satisfactory ! 2012-03-30
30
Off-mainstream applications
Offshore verus onshore; world wide
Installed Wind Power in the World - Annual and Cumulative 200,000
30,000
3554 MW 43 83 MW/project 8.1 MW/project 198 MW/project
175,000 150,000
25,000
125,000
20,000
100,000
15,000
75,000
10,000
50,000
5,000
25,000
0
0 1983
1990
1995
Year Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011
2012-03-30
Cumulative MW
Total installed offshore wind power: Total number of projects: Average power per project: Average power of 10 smallest projects: Average power of 10 largest projects:
35,000
MW per year
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
40,000
2000
2005
2010
31
Off-mainstream applications
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
European offshore WE potential
Time lines displaced by 16 years !
2012-03-30
32
European offshore WE potential
Off-mainstream applications
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Eight 100x100 km offshore wind farms could produce 3,000 TWh – equivalent to EU electricity demand
Based on Siemens information
2012-03-30
33
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
4. Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
2012-03-30
34
Specific Offshore issues
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Offshore WE technology: What makes it different from land based applications?
2012-03-30
• •
Cost breakdown External conditions (waves, salt conditions, turbulence, extreme winds, (sea) bottom)
• • • • • • •
Support structures Transport and Assembly Commissioning Operation and Maintenance; Access Grid integration Scale & Risk Nature issues & Safety 35
Development & Pespectives of offhsore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Cost break down
22%
onshore
Wind turbine (including tower) 61%
2%
Foundation 4%
2% 9%
Consultancy & finance 2%
Grid-connection 9%
61%
4%
23%
Operation & maintenance 22%
3% 34%
offshore
Wind turbine 34% Support structure & installation 24% Grid connection 15% Management 1%
1%
Operation & maintenance 23%
15% 24%
2012-03-30
Land purchase & roads 2%
Decommissioning 3%
36
Wind turbine requirements
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
• Size: as large as possible
Repower
• Reliability (reduced number of components – direct drive) • Availability
Nordex N80 Offshore
• Maintainability • Servicebility • Accessebility
RAMS 2012-03-30
37
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Up scaling
© Jos Beurskens
2012-03-30
38
Support structures
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Wind turbine
Oil/gas platform
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
‘one dimensional’ taxonomy of foundations
2012-03-30
39
Support structures
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Photo Jos Beurskens
Photo Jos Beurskens
Photo Jos Beurskens
Photo Jos Beurskens
Photo Jos Beurskens
Photo Jos Beurskens
40
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Support structures
© Jos Beurskens
2012-03-30
41
Support structures
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
SET Analysis
Design aspects of offshore suport structures manufacturing soil condition
Jos Beurskens
water depth
transport system
Support structures
end of life solution
installation method
logistics
ecological constraints
2012-03-30
42
Support structures
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
STEAM HOSES
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
CRANE
CAGE STEAM PRESSURE RAM CUSHION ANVIL PILE
2012-03-30
43
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Support structures
Noise absorption shield
2012-03-30
44
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Source: EWEA
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Support structures
2012-03-30
45
Floating support structures
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Tension Leg Platform (TLP)
2012-03-30
46
Floating support structures
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Spar
2012-03-30
47
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Semi submersible
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Floating support structures
2012-03-30
48
Transport & Installation
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
SET Analysis
Stabilisation: floating / jack-up
Jos Beurskens
Photo: Jos Beurskens Photo: Jos Beurskens
49
Transport & Installation
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Integrated approaches
Ballast Nedam 2012-03-30
Sway 50
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Planning phase Photo: Jos Beurskens
ECN O&M Tool
Ampelmann
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Operation and Maintenance
2012-02-07
Validated by GL Many licenses sold Flight Leader concept Many wind farms analysed
51
Operation and Maintenance
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Availability = f (reliability, accessibility)
90 OWECS Availability [%]
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
100 100% accessibility (onshore)
Ampelmann: Hs= 2.5 m, 50 m vessel (93 %)
80% accessibility
80 60% accessibility
70 60 50 state-of-the-art
40% accessibility (exposed offshore)
Strategy 1 improved
highly improved
Reliability of design [-]
20-01-2012
www.we-at-sea.org
52
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Operation and Maintenance
Foto: Jos Beurskens
Photo: JosBeurskens Beurskens Foto: Jos
Access system: Ampelmann concept
2012-03-30
53
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Logistics
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
12 miles zone
heliport
haven
Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Harbours at sea
750 M€ - 1000 M€ Could serve 10,000 MW economically T = 5 to 7 years
Lievense, R. Prins
Source: Renout Prins 2012-03-30
55
Birds
Automatic monitoring
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Offshore; ecological aspects Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
(migration, collisions)
Marine mammals (sound during installation) TNO
Fish (Positive effects, negative effectsduring hammering?)
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Offshore; ecological aspects Development & Pespectives of offshore WE
The more research is conducted ….. the less anticipated problems appear to be real ones, the more mitigating measures appear possible and effective !
4. Market development & Experiences
Market growth
Europe 2011: 97 GW
Installed Wind Power in the World
• 2011: 238.400
40,000
200,000
35,000
175,000
30,000
150,000
25,000
125,000
20,000
100,000
15,000
75,000
10,000
50,000
5,000
25,000
0
Cumulative MW
Jos Beurskens
MW per year
SET Analysis
- Annual and Cumulative -
0 1983
1990
1995
Year Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011
2000
2005
2010
Market (31-12-2010) 2012-03-30
58
Impact on investments
Market development & Experiences
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Wind power investments 30 (€bn)
25
20
15
10
5
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Onshore Investments (€2010 bn) Offshore Investments (€2010 bn)
2012-03-30
59
Market development & Experiences
Impact on electricity supply
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Wind energy’s share of national electricity demand, end 2010 Denmark Portugal Spain Ireland Germany EU-27 Greece Netherlands United Kingdom Estonia Sweden Italy Austria Lithuania Belgium France Bulgaria Romania Poland Hungary Luxembourg Latvia Czech Republic Finland Slovakia Slovenia Malta Cyprus
25,6% 15,5% 15,0% 12,9% 8,0% 5,3% 4,3% 4,1% 3,7% 3,5% 3,2% 3,2% 2,8% 2,7% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,7% 1,6% 1,5% 1,1% 0,9% 0,6% 0,5% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
0%
5%
EU average 5.3%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
2012-03-30
60
Market development & Experiences
Impact on land use
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Installed wind power per 1000 km², end 2010 Denmark Germany Netherlands Portugal Spain Belgium UK Ireland EU-27 Italy Luxembourg Austria France Greece Cyprus Sweden Poland Bulgaria Estonia Hungary Czech Republic Lithuania Romania Finland Latvia Slovakia Slovenia Malta
4,8 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,2 2,7 2,4 1,9 0,6 0,5 0,1 0,0 0,0
0
12,1 10,3 9,2 8,9
10
21,3 20,3 19,5 19,2 16,4
20
30
54,1
42,6 41,0
29,9
40
76,2
50
60
70
80
88,1
90
100
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 2012-03-30
61
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Final remarks
Wind Energy
• Small wind turbines require same quality checks and safety as large turbines. Independant testing & Certification essential • Siting in built up areas is critical and extremely difficult • Offshore wind energy is in full development and needs government incentives • Floating structures in embryonal stage • Grid integration is show stopper, in particular on islands • Electric car fleet is key for (cost effective) balancing electricity supply and demand • Corrosion protection: much to be learned from offshore.
2012-03-30
62
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Wind Energy
2012-03-30
Masha danki pa bo atenshon! Thank you for your attention!
63