North America
Renewable Energies in the United States: The shift that will take more than a pandemic written by Armand Chateau
Photo: IEA, 2020.
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estrictions imposed to slow the spread of Covid-19 have had a dramatic effect on energy consumption. Intentional constraints on economic activity created a supply shock, coupled with a demand shock arising from the impact on consumers’ disposable income and corporate investment activity. The latest data show that the drastic curtailment of global economic activity and mobility during the first quarter of 2020 pushed down global energy demand by 3.8% relative to the first quarter of 2019, wiping off five years of demand growth. Such a decline—which has not been seen for the past 70 years—has led many to hope for a shift in environmental policies. Can this be true? During the pandemic, there has been an unprecedented decrease of CO₂ emissions and a new-found resilience in renewables (see figure 1). Global CO2 emissions were more than 5% lower in Q1 2020 than in the same period in 2019, with an 8% decline in emissions from coal, 4.5% from oil and 2.3% from natural gas. CO2 emissions declined in the regions hardest hit by Covid-19 such as the United States (-9%). This was the lowest level since 2010 and the largest drop ever. Meanwhile, renewable energy has been the most resilient energy source to
Covid-19 lockdown measures, with global use of renewable energy increasing in all sectors by about 1.5% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019 (see figure 2). As a result, renewables almost reached 30% of electricity supply globally and experienced the largest increase, especially in the eastern states of the United States. However, these encouraging signs must be treated with caution for two reasons. First, not all of the declines in demand at the start of 2020 were a result of the response to Covid-19. Secondly, the pandemic may still threaten the renewable energy sector, and the decrease in CO2 emissions does not guarantee lasting reduction. Indeed, the relative resilience of renewables is partly due to external factors, including the continuation of milder than average weather conditions throughout most of the Northern Hemisphere winter which pushed down energy demand. This was particularly evident in the United States, where the majority of the 18% decline in residential and commercial gas consumption can be attributed to a milder winter than in 2019. Renewables receive priority in the grid and are not asked
Autumn 2020 • Dialogue 95
