Demographic Degeneration
The Repercussions of Depopulation on Modelling the Future
Mansanjam Kaur Monu Kumar Noeen Fatma Pragya Kher Yugaank FarighAbstract
Despite the prevalent hype about overpopulation, current projections hint towards a declining population. The aim of our study is to anticipate how the on going urban planning of Delhi could be capable of accommodating and providing for a future, encompassing a declining and greying population The population dynamics have humongous implications on city planning The phenomenon of population decline, yet to be experienced by Delhi in the near future, will bring the need of re evaluating the ways of urban planning in order to achieve an all inclusive model. Our study was divided into three parts Foremost the literature review dealt with four aspects understanding the gap in popular perception regarding population growth in contrast to the impending depopulation, its various consequences, resultant depopulated and greying society and the possibility of downsizing and rightsizing concepts in relation to urban planning in such a scenario. We analysed long term projection of population and demographic composition of Delhi; correlating it with case studies and current urban planning norms, we speculated upon the urban transition in Delhi, concluding that in order to prepare Delhi for an impending depopulation the planning approach needs to be phased in implementation; making additions to infrastructure now, which facilitate rightsizing in the future. This study renders the current approach of urban planning incompetent to cater to a declining and greying future population It points to a flexible and liquid system of merging separate sectors and spaces together to arrive at a planning arrangement, convenient for ageing population and promotes multi usage of spaces, thus contributing to the rightsizing of infrastructure.
Keywords
Population,demographic transition,ageing,decline,depopulation,transport network, mobility, housing, New Delhi, intergenerational housing, multigenerational housing, TOD.
Introduction
Population dynamics have unprecedented impacts at a global as well as at a micro level With their ever transitioning nature, the population has ties in fields like economy, housing etc
The discourse regarding population growth has been divided into two contrasting schools of thoughts over the time, while one prophesied impending doomsday; the other took a more optimistic approach
Thomas Malthus was among the first to predict the dangers of population growth and the limited Earth’s resources. In his 1798 study, ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’, he argued that an exponentially growing population would overwhelm the linear agricultural production leading to a catastrophic future (Malthus, 2007) Paul Ehlrich has identified rapid population growth as the root cause of multitudinous problems based on the Malthusian theory in his book, ‘Population Bomb’
Another school of thought observes demography and numbers as an asset and the cause of all the major events around the world in the book Human Tide, by Paul Morland His book talks about the so called ‘population explosion’ that happened in the world after the mid 90’s, its root causes, the
demographic trends around the world and gives the idea through historic facts about the growth rates and population growth in numbers. The factors driving demographic trends, such as mortality rate, fertility rate, growth rates, not only affect the population and numbers but also cater to cultural, social and political aspects and play an important role in determining the economic status and military power of a country
From 1950 to 2011, the world population had increased tremendously from 2 6 billion to 7 7 billion This steep surge is largely a result of increasing numbers of people surviving up to the reproductive age, accompanied by rapid urbanization and increasing migration
But recent revision of UN population Prospects (2019) suggest that in certain areas the population growth has already started going down the spiral, the most apparent decline being in the European countries It projects that the phenomenon of depopulation is set to happen in many regions of the world by the year 2100. India, currently in its demographic dividend phase will also experience a stabilizing population and then move towards a declining one
Treating the world to look at the population through the rose tinted, foggy glasses of overpopulation, would be a huge limitation to the general public in understanding the deeper and intricate relationships the population has towards allied fields
The decline in population isn’t merely a numerical value, delving deeper into it, we realise that the impact of this mere change in numbers, reshapes and remoulds the whole nation in terms of its social, economic and political aspects, because, after all population decline doesn’t only point towards the dwindling numbers, but also changes it’s demographic composition This subsequent aging and declining population will lead to economic stagnation The consumer market demands will decrease and so will the dynamism, giving rise to a largely inert workforce
This phenomenon will also result in a clash from the perspective of sustainability and its correlation with the ‘myths’ of overpopulation, resource depletion and environmental degradation How overpopulation is stipulated to be the end of all of all problems Migration patterns also tend to be important pole bearers in this demographic shift which results in cultural extinction due to wiping off populations and loss of certain minority groups
In Averting the Old Age Crisis (World Bank, 1994) the need to provide robust financial security for the elderly citing the rising life expectancy and declining fertility has been emphasized It means that the proportion of old people in the general population is growing rapidly especially in developing countries which would age faster than the developed or industrial countries did
While the World Bank policy report focussed on evaluating informal support systems and the need of strong government policies for the elderly, it also addressed the social and economic aspect of demographic transitioning but missed out on its policy implications on the physical aspect The Economic Survey of India 2018 19 apart from pointing towards a shift in economic policy in case of a change in demographic structure, hinted at downsizing of residual infrastructure as well as addition of the required newer ones, the lacuna remains on the guidelines governing overall city planning
Enjoying demographic dividend phase at the moment (Ministry of Finance, 2018), India and particularly the city of Delhi, is only a few decades away from the onset of the stage of declining and ageing population as projected by Population Foundation of India in its publication (2007)
Economic Survey of India (Ministry of Finance, 2018) even included a chapter titled India’s Demography in 2040, that deals with the policy implications of impending change in age structure of the population Based on IIPS projections it suggested that the proportion of elementary school going children, i.e. 5 14 age group, will witness a major decline. Many states need to merge schools to make them viable for this receding population rather than building new ones Simultaneously policy makers also need to prepare for aging investment in health care sectors and an increase in retirement age
Dupont analysed Delhi’s urban development from the lens of population distribution and its related spatial expansion. Instead of a quantitative approach of urban planning based on population, the author takes up on its qualitative aspect and suggests that a simple rural urban dichotomy is inadequate for defining relevant limits for the measurement of urban growth in town planning (Dupont, 2004)
To study the eventual impacts of this phenomenon we limited our research on the fields of mobility and housing as they form the backbone of planning at an urban level Further, the existing models of urban planning tend to focus only on the positive growth pattern of population, rather than a declining one. This paints a wrong picture. So keeping these core categories in mind, we will take into account the least disturbance from other allied fields
Mobility is largely focussed on the public to private shift (dynamics of transport medium) and the densification of the urban fabric through the medium of TOD with attempts being made to right size the existing transport network The housing field will be targeted towards looking at multigenerational housing and its effectiveness as a rightsizing tool
While our study highlights the need to change in perspective towards population growth and directs us towards the impending population decline, infrastructure development, city planning, and public policies are highly dependent on population statistics So the myth of overpopulation portrays a very wrong picture and misguides the policy decisions regarding city development It also aims to draw upon the physical aspects of the infrastructure for the depopulated and elderly section of the society. The social and economic aspects couldn’t be dived in due to time constraints Since we haven’t taken into account any future change in social structure and the impacts of technological advancements, this corrodes our research to a certain extent
The general perception points to a direct connection between development and the increasing infrastructure Further, the myth of overpopulation strengthens this hegemonic concept With the impending negative growth which is all set to take over the future, it would render this extra infrastructure useless
Mobility patterns will shift, in terms of the level of ownership and drastically alter the public private consumer realm The shift from private to public and then to private will also give rise to the changing definition of what constitutes private and public So will the work commuter relationships alter due to the impending workforce shift? All this will have a large impact on the urban planning and road network of the city
While the young population is seen as an asset to the economy of the nation, , the aging population is seen as a liability for the most part With the timely implementation of active aging policies, it can be transformed into a more experienced, stable and professional workforce for the country All this actually points to the hegemonic concept of age
For our study, we started with the onus on debunking the myth of population explosion and declining demographics of our country While working upon our research, our focus shifted towards the age friendly aspect of the city of Delhi and through our research another aspect of greying population,along with depopulation, shows up towards the end From then we realized that depopulation and aged population work in conjunction and cannot be looked at in exclusion SO now we are looking at the urban planning of Delhi in the context of a depopulated and aged world
We used Cohort Component Methodology to do population projection for Delhi It is typically used for population projections taking assumptions for fertility, mortality, life expectancy and sex ratio at birth
For Delhi to be prepared for the impending depopulation and the greying of society, this research must be done with a motive to suggest requisite changes in the urban planning policies and to achieve the phasing of planning required to deal with this menace It is also imperative that this process be undertaken now so that all the rightsizing and densification policies have significant time to be authorized and implemented properly.
Literature review
The literature reviewed can be classified into two broad categories on which our work is based on and contributes to: the degeneration of population 1) in terms of numbers and 2) in terms of age composition The first category gave an insight into the economy and power dynamics associated with numerical strength of population The latter category addresses the socio cultural impact of age profiling as a facet of population degeneration
The Population Degeneration Numbers
Paul Moreland (2019) talks about the major world events and examines them from the point of view of demography and their transitions These major events have made and even done away with nations and continue to do so The rise and fall of the British Empire; the emergence of America as a superpower; the ebb and flow of global challenges from Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and Soviet Russia, all hint towards the implications of the population numbers and demographic composition on the making and un making of the nations through the following phases The emergence of these phases is a result of certain factors such as food, living environment, health care facilities and changing the mind set of society about an ideal family size
Societies undergo five phases of demographic transition,
● the first phase in which the birth rates increase along with the death rates, leading to a positive growth of population, but at a slower rate
● The second phase includes increasing birth rates and decreasing death rates due to improved living standards, leading to a much faster population growth
● In the third phase, birth rates start to decline and death rates start to increase, directing the societies towards negative growth
● In the fourth phase, the birth rates are at replacement level and death rates are low resulting in stable growth but aging societies
● Finally, the fifth phase comes, in which the birth rates are below replacement level and death rates are low resulting in slow and declining growth
The author certainly offers a new discourse to historical events and draws attention to the power of sheer numbers; the work fails to come up with a speculation on a new tangent the world power dynamics could go through in an event of a change in population numbers
Rooting the power of numbers in present reality, Bricker and Ibbitson (2019) argue that the world population would soon decline by 2050 and negate United Nations predictions on the same by 2100 clocking 11 billion A century later it can be as low as 2 3 billion and would further spiral down This will bring about the drastic change in the social, political and economic realms owing to which the consumer and housing markets will witness a huge shift leaving the present economic system in tatters. While the authors offer immigration as a solution to the problems posed by a changing demography, the question as to ‘how immigration can fill all the gaps due to depopulation’, goes unanswered Studies show that immigration has managed to stabilize the population of European countries between 2005 and 2015 by slowing down the rate of ‘population decline’ At the same time it has been estimated that migration might become the sole driver of population growth in countries like Canada and the United States sometime after 2020 However, the authors overlooked the fact that just by increasing the inflow of immigrants in a nation could not possibly ensure that it will address the problem, because a few factors such as median age of the immigrants, immigrant policies of the nation, and the economy dynamics of the immigration between the parent nation and the immigrated nation and the revival of economic growth and consumer markets, need better resolution
The Population Degeneration Altered Age Composition
Bricker and Ibbitson (2019) argue that the worldwide decline of religious beliefs is also linked to falling fertility levels Lesser number of children leads to lesser requirement of child care and schools which in turn fluctuates employment patterns
Apart from talking about sheer numbers, Paul Moreland (2019) also addresses the issue of a changing age composition of a nation’s population The change in demographic composition is held responsible for stability or lack thereof in a country He argues that in Switzerland the average age is 40 whereas in Yemen it is 20 years, and the age profile of these two nations are responsible for their socio economic status. Switzerland is a peaceful and economically prosperous country while Yemen is a poor and politically unstable country A sheer change in the demographic composition of a place can shake up its economy easily
The U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in the year 1999 pointed out that the interface between economic prosperity and population aging shapes quite many aspects of a culture, its customs, and its social policies
By drawing upon this fact, Yoon and Hendricks (2006) postulate that a potential demographic transition in any country puts forward essential economic and policy challenges that in turn affect familial and socio cultural relationships The ‘intersection of traditional morality with global market driving forces,’redefines the meaning of growing old and state provisions for the aged
Kinsella (2000) and Phillips (2000) suggested that certain countries, which are not facing the phenomena of aging demographics, take up the interests of the children and the young working force as a driving agent for the policy formulation However, many Asian nations are formulating or reformulating aging policies as these countries are experiencing dramatic demographic conversions due to the rapid increase of the populations
In the traditional Asian and Indian context, most elderly live in extended, multigenerational families and rely on adult children, spouses, or other family members for material needs and personal care The same decline in population which results in an increased proportion of the aged, also results in the downsizing of families thereby affecting the ratio of the supporters to the dependents (Liebig, Ramamurthi, 2006)
Fishman (2010) attempted a world study of ‘how an aging population will affect all aspects of society, including business, government and family life ’ The world population is greying and an improved medical care means that the senior’s lifespan will increase, paving way for the consumer market to "turn golden due to silver" Across the world, international migration would increase due to the young population which will move as a workforce to serve the typical grey nations’ markets This would result in loss of familial care in countries of origin and in turn would shift the onus on the countries' governments for elderly care
Bricker and Ibbitson (2019) argue that depopulation has other socio economic impacts too The era of decline will lead to the wiping out of the marginalised communities and the violation of women’s rights The threat of depopulation is an existential crisis for these communities, which threatens to wipe out their unique traditions and languages also If a language along with its grammar and syntax is lost, it impacts the worldview of the speaker As humanity is enriched by its diversity, the loss of this diversity through the loss of language and culture impoverishes human inheritance Population decline doesn’t have to necessarily create a situation of social decline in the world; rather, the world can be remodeled in order to fulfil the reduced and changed demands to prevent a situation of turmoil
The literature addresses these issues about the consequences of a shift in population dynamics on economics, on society, familial structures; and policies which could offer a respite from such consequences The review helped in informing us of the situation of various parts of the world already
experiencing the phenomenon and the measures taken and suggested thereof But despite touching upon the varied and far reaching impacts of a degenerated population, the works overlooked its impact on urban planning and the way planning needs to adapt to the scenario at a larger level Consequently, the changes urban planning needs to undergo could be examined in more detail
Assumptions
1 The resource replenishment rates will not fall
2. Climate change will not have any major impact on the liveability of the city and the planet as a whole due to the initiatives being taken to neutralize it.
3. The imminent technological advancements and their larger implications have not been taken into account.
Conceptual framework
The current global scenario paints a picture, revolving around the myth of overpopulation. This has hugely impacted the societal mind set and misled urban planning, which is largely based on population numbers As a result of this, the infrastructural development today has become unidirectional, focusing only on the aspect of future expansion and paying less attention towards the on going phenomenon of depopulation; the phenomenon which is all set to shake the demographic composition in the coming future, pushing the world into a greying phase
To sail through this phase smoothly, the cities need to be planned in a way such that there is enough for the user base. There should be no resource wastage in the future, which brings us to the concept of rightsizing the current infrastructure By this the condition of an urban sprawl won’t rise in the future due to the reckless infrastructural expansion being done today
Along with this, urban planning needs to be flexible enough to serve a completely different user base in the future as well
Research questions
1. How does the perception of a sustainable infrastructure change with the phenomenon of depopulation?
2 How should housing strategies evolve with a shift in the demographics?
3 What is the relationship between intra city transit and commuter? How does it need to evolve with a changing user base?
4 In what ways does the phenomenon of depopulation leading to urban sprawl, be curbed through the reshaping of the city?
5 ‘Is subtraction to rationalisation’, the way forward to deal with a depopulated world? If so, how does the pre depopulation time period cope up with this rationalisation?
Delhi is currently bidding to become the host for summer Olympics 2032 In order to secure the spot, a series of Infrastructural developments in the form of stadiums and flyovers have already started
The prevalent myth of overpopulation, the on going demographic dividend phase and the series of pull migrations to Delhi all are backing up this arbitrary development
The intersection of all these factors tends to render the urban planning goals significantly short term Overlooking the impending phenomenon of depopulation,it is imperative to understand the transitional process of Delhi from this unmethodical approach of urban planning to a phased and more inclusive one
Transport networking
The shift in population patterns has had a dense impact on the transport networking aspect of city planning. For a seamless functioning of the transportation system, both now and in times to come, it is imperative that certain trends be analysed and changes in the policy framework be made accordingly
For an ageing population the lack of ease in usage will continue to largely contribute to the unused public transport. As per the present scenario, for the year 2008, the number of private motor trips have gone up by 7% and the non motorized trips have gone up by 6% conversely the number of bus trips shows a steeping decline of 18% (Department ofTransport, GNCTD 2007)
This lopsided division is even more apparent on the funding side, as a large number of funds are being invested keeping in mind the privately owned infrastructure and making it convenient for those user groups , despite the fact that private transport accounts for only 20% of the total user group
The ideal distance for a non motorized mode is 4km for walking and 6km for cycling and on an average 60% and 80% of trips in Delhi fall under these ranges respectively But due to lack of an adequate walking and cycling environment, the onus shifts to the usage of private transport to cover these minute distances, hence causing vehicular congestion
Proportion of disabled people has increased from 4 15 (for 60 69 yrs of age) to 8 41 (for 80 89 yrs of age)
The percentage of disabled has been increasing with the increase in the respective ages from 60 90 This shows that with advancing age, the independence of the elderly will decrease. (Census of India, 2011)
Disability statistics according to varying social groups
Disability among ST’s and other groups is lower up to the age of 40 49 60 onwards the disability increases among STs Disability among SC’s is higher than other social groups in all age groups (Census of India, 2011)
Disability statistics according to age
From age group 60 to 80, the disabilities in terms of vision have increased from 1 04 to 2 06
And in age group 60 to 80, the disabilities in terms of hearing have increased from 0.77 to 1.63
In the age group 60 to 80, the disabilities in terms of hearing have gone up from 1 06 to 2 04 (Census of India, 2011) (Refer table 1, Appendix B Data set)
These values are strongly dependent on the factor of age With advancing age the cognitive and the locomotor senses start losing their sharpness, as these senses are largely important for mobility and autonomous driving This can be a hindrance to the aged and their independence (Refer bar graph 1, bar graph 2 Appendix B Data set)
Single family household units and the dependency ratio of elderly to the young.
The DLHS survey was conducted in 2007 8. The survey collected household data from 720,320 households, out of which 25,360 households were OPH
The definition of household unit utilized in DLHS is like the census definition However, the survey includes only “normal” households and excludes houseless and institutional households.
Observations
1 OPH was less than 4% in both census data and survey estimates In the 2011 census, 3 7% of “normal” households had a single person, a slight increase of 0 1% over the last ten years In absolute numbers, there were nearly 7 million OPH in 2001 and 9 million in 2011
2 22 4% of those living in OPH were aged below 40 while 61 7% of those in multi person households were aged below 40 As seen, the majority of those living in OPH were above the age of 55 and majority of those residing in multi person households were below the age of 40.
Conclusions
1 The unadjusted odds ratios show that those who are younger than 55 are less likely to stay in OPH than those over 55, and this pattern remains unchanged in the adjusted model
2 This pattern of older persons at higher risk of staying alone is seen for both men and women The higher likelihood of older people living in OPH recommends that adjustments in family structure that go with transition to older age may lead to formation of OPH
3 Changes in household structure as a consequence of demographic and socioeconomic shifts, might create potentially vulnerable populations
4. Declining fertility and increasing internal migration of young people for study and work might lead to an increase in one person or elderly only households in rural areas
Therefore, the phenomenon of depopulation and greying will bring a shift from private to public transport.
As the proportion of the elderly disabled and the number of one person household units increase, the dependence of elderly on private nodes of transport tends to decrease as there are no younger members of the family to drive them
This demands the car oriented transport networks to shift to public modes of transport so that Delhi is able to serve a majority of the population in the coming future.
Projecting for 2060 and 2080
In the NSSO Survey (2004) information was sought on the state of physical mobility of persons aged 60 & above as to whether they are mobile or confined to home or confined to bed only
The proportion of physically mobile elderly men and women decline from 94 to 95 percent among those in the age group 60 64 years to about 72% for men and 63 to 65 per cent for women of age 80 or more (SituationAnalysis ofThe Elderly in India, 2011)
Calculations
2 21% of total population of India constitutes the disabled (a) Elderly (60 years and above) disabled constitutes 21% of the total disabled population in India (b) (Census of India, 2011)
For 2011
Total population of Delhi - 1, 70, 57,000
Disabled elderly population of Delhi 79, 161 from (a) and (b)
For 2021
Total projected population of Delhi 2, 03, 15,000 Disabled elderly population of Delhi 1, 29,508 from (a) and (b)
For 2041
Total projected population of Delhi 2, 49, 20,000 Disabled elderly population of Delhi 3, 70,685 from (a) and (b)
For 2061
Total projected population of Delhi 2, 70, 22,000 Disabled elderly population of Delhi 6, 78,628 from (a) and (b)
For 2081
Total projected population of Delhi 2, 75, 92,000
Disabled elderly population of Delhi 8, 07,066 from (a) and (b)
Therefore, From 2011 to 2021, it increases by 0 23%
From 2021 to 2041, it increases by 0 85%
From 2041 to 2061, it increases by 1 03%
From 2061 to 2081, it increases by 0 41%
Which means that the car oriented road infrastructure that we presently have would not be sufficient for this part of the population. Thus it needs to shift towards the public system to make it more inclusive.
But the current public transport network has been designed keeping in mind the young population at large, thus, making it inaccessible for the elderly.
This can have serious implications upon the usability of the public transport network, as well as the work commute dynamic, as the proportion of the aged is going to increase in significant amounts in the employment sector with the onset of the greying phase
The non accessibility of the intra city transit can be considered as one of the major reasons for a significant rise in the percentage of elderly non workers (Refer bar graph 3, Appendix B Data set)
c According to MPD 2021, the current Road network accounts for about 21% of the total area, which is above average of 12 to 15 % for urban areas This will translate into a road density of 19 2 Km per Sq Km (for 1483 sq km); and 38 km per Sq Km, taking into account the current urban area of 750 sq km Being already on the high side, this limits the potential for increase in road length as well.
PUBLIC-NESS of public transport
How public transport was made more accessible to the aged?
To counter the decline of public transport systems, many countries have tried to integrate public transport so that it is rendered fit for elderly people (Shrestha et al, 2017) The city of Manchester has made its metro stations and public transit systems more accessible to the general public The bus is accessible to wheelchair and walking frame users, and has short distances between platforms without having to cross the street level This allows both elder people and the population to have a wider access to transport The UK tries the approach of going all in for constructing an age friendly city, and projects an aged population in a very positive manner (Morris, 2016)
In West Yorkshire, public transport in the form of the Demand responsive Transport (DRT) is introduced (Morris, 2016). DRT is an advanced and user oriented form of public transport whose characteristic feature is developing an adaptable planning and routing of small vehicles working in shared ride mode between pickup and drop off areas as indicated by user requirements.
Other measures taken in France include 400 “friendly agents” on route in their public transport network They operate in groups of 4 persons The teams stay for 30 minutes at one particular stop and provide the necessary guidance to the aged, increasing the communication and cognition levels in order to make public transport barrier free for older people and at the same time using it as an opportunity to give employment to the young migrants in the country (EMTA, 2007)
Boundaries between private and public blurs
As this demographic shift occurs, there is a shift between the “private” and “public” One such means is through a mobility scooter, which initially came about Austria Mobility Scooters are mobility aid similar to a wheelchair but configured like a motorised scooter and are typically battery powered which makes it even environment friendly,
Shift to TOD zones
TOD is mainly any development, macro or micro, which is focused around a transit node, and can facilitate a better access to the transit facility, thereby persuading people to walk or choose public over personal modes of transportation
TOD is typically characterized by compact, high density, mixed use development near new or existing high quality public transportation infrastructure that provides employment, housing, entertainment and societal functions within walking distance of the particular transit system
TOD Influence Zones are earmarked from the centre of the metro stations ranging from 3 15 minutes of walking distance These zones are planned to maximize the use of public transport by creating connections between the surrounding areas The MRTS by providing shaded walk able routes and colonnades along with cycle tracks running parallel to the built form along with ancillary facilities like public toilets, cycle and auto-rickshaw/taxi stands, disabled friendly pathways etc
The influence zone is the area belonging to the 300 m radius of the intenseTOD zone
Standard TOD zone is the Zone between 300 800 m radius is the influence zone, around a 10 minute walk
The TOD transition zone is the 2000m radius 10 min cycling distance influence zone of transit stations (DUAC, 2014)
According to the MPD 2021, it is expected that about 60% of the urban area will be within 15-minute walking distance from the proposed MRTS stations, after a fully developed system
Correspondingly, it is also expected that vehicular trips will also progressively shift from road based transport to MRTS, particularly, with reference to the longer trip lengths (greater than 10 Km) within the city,
But in spite of these policies, accessibility remains a serious issue:
1 Population residing along the metro within a walking distance of 500 m will majorly have the highest accessibility to the metro since 500 m is an ideal walking distance
2 The area within 500 m from the metro corridor is only 31% (198 5 sq km out of the 640 sq km of total urban area) of Delhi Therefore, 69% of the area of Delhi will remain beyond the walking distance of the metro, and hence inaccessible to the general public
To cope up with this increasing disjointed ness and to make walking a viable option, the walking distance needs to be less than 500 m. To achieve this, the urban fabric needs to be more dense, the activities need to be tied together close enough and the metro stations need to be made more accessible. The expansion of the metro influence zone beyond 31% will have to solely rely on the feeder system This is difficult because of the inherent transfer costs and wait times at interchanges which can cause it to be rendered inefficient
How TOD can cater to the aged population
● Pedestrian & Non-Motorized transport(NMT) Friendly Environment
● Connectivity and network density
● Multimodal interchange
● Inducing modal shift
● Place making and ensuring safety
All these form the backbone of the TOD principles. These principles help us in pointing towards various forms of policies that could be practised.
The first principle points towards the pedestrianization of roads by making them more accessible for use. The second principle contributes to pedestrianization of roads as well as decongesting of the traffic to other parallel roads, thus reducing the risk of road accidents for pedestrians. The third principle helps in maintaining the heterogeneity of the society by serving a population of different social backgrounds and not just focusing on one
The fourth principle points to the densification of the urban fabric making mobility easy for the aged population and also dodging the situation of urban sprawl which can easily arise with decline in population The fifth principle provides round the clock active streets and incidental spaces to relax It also puts on the introduction of mixed land use and other informal street activities like vendors, etc to promote round the clock activity and also promote informal surveillance
All these lead us to the fact that MPD employees TOD as an additional way to promote an age friendly city
TOD Zones as the place to age
TOD is the long term strategy which will facilitate the creation of a decentralized city/region and create an urban development pattern which would be more sustainable Also it aims towards the densification of the urban fabric, thus avoiding the situation of urban sprawl to happen when the decline starts to happen
By promoting mixed land use, increasing safety by minimising distances to transit stops and promoting the use of public transport, makingTOD is the most sustainable way going forward.
Place making
The concept of place making refers to designing urban neighbourhoods in a way that local communities can be formed, returning to traditional Indian concepts of shared public spaces and ‘chowks’ Currently, the city does not have local public spaces which can be used by everyone irrespective of class
The TOD development code will greatly increase public safety for women and children, especially those using public transport or walking at night, through provision of new codes/norms for setbacks, boundary walls, built to edge buildings, active frontages, eyes on the street, etc.
Giving everyone a home
Nowadays, most conversations of housing delivery tend to keenly focus on ownership housing for the high income bracket (above Rs 60,000 income per month) or the severely low income bracket (below 10,000 per month) Little to no focus is given on planning and designing housing typologies for the large majority of the middle income rink of the city population which resides in the unauthorized colonies and slums, and struggles for basic amenities, security and quality of life. TOD also aims to accommodate the needs of this segment through housing provision in the city.
Through the method of increasing FAR and urban density, these TOD norms aim at provide a variety of housing types for a range of income brackets and demographic types in the city
TOD Zones as effective rightsizing tools
The transport network of Delhi is largely four wheeler oriented with a greater emphasis on the construction of roads, flyovers and widening of roads Even though the road infrastructure of Delhi is at a much higher end than the average road infrastructure of an urban area which is about 12 15 %, it still faces issues of congestion due to high volumes of traffic during the peak hours of the day
The congestion on these roads of Delhi will ease gradually, but the transition point is yet to come in 2060 Therefore, downsizing the existing road network isn’t a viable option because it has to serve the current needs of the population as well
But in the future, the requirement for the density and concentration of the urban fabric will rise to avoid the situation of urban sprawl in Delhi It will be able to maintain a seamless transport network and accessibility to facilities throughout its stretch TOD zones can effectively contribute to this process of densification and concentrated development catering to the needs of a heterogeneous population in the future. These do not affect the existing road networks ensuring a seamless transportation system in the present scenario as well.
To achieve spatial balance, development should take place according to new corridors of mass movement. This changing scenario provides opportunities for optimum utilization of land and restructuring of the city along the MRTS corridors
● Increasing FAR’s which aim at concentrated development and densification of the urban fabric
● Dividing up the different facilities into intense, standard and transition zones in a hierarchical manner to ensure walkability
Similarly, the intense TOD zones (which cover the 300 m walking distance from the transit areas) can be utilised as the residential encouragement zones for the senior citizens who will contribute about 18% of Delhi's total population in 2061 and about 20% in 2081.
Housing Conceptualization
1 Downsizing: “Downsizing involves moving from a larger to a smaller dwelling (reduce in number of bedrooms or floor area) and/or garden/courtyard requiring low maintenance often including a reduction in personal belongings (decluttering), lifestyle changes and occasionally reductions in housing value or equity”(Judd et al, 2013) A variety of person environment interactions are the driving force behind downsizing
2 Rightsizing: Rightsizing involves an elderly person’s active and positive choice to modify home as a way of improving their quality of life It recognizes that the situations, desires and needs of the older population are quite diverse It is anchored by the idea that the actual choices available to older people are limited to the housing provisions that are both available and accessible to them (Hammond et al, 2018)
3. Multigenerational Housing: It is defined as family households consisting of three or more generations within a single household. (US Census Bureau)
4 Multigenerational housing in Indian context: In a traditional Indian family, multigenerational form of living arrangement has been the way of life This system of multiple generations living together under one roof arises from the rural agrarian economy where the agrarian occupation got handed down from generation to generation This ensured a continuation of income, autonomy, social involvement and familial ties between the generations (Gore, 1992) The considerable proportion of older adults who live with their children can be traced to cultural norms that view children as primary caregivers for their elderly parents
Housing Need
One of the most important aspects of city planning is concerned with providing shelter for all that is well planned in terms of population and age composition The number of housing stock required is planned based on not only absolute numbers but also on the average family size Before proceeding any further it is pertinent to look at how the family structure evolved over time
Evolution of Family Structure
As the economy progressed from agrarian to industrial, family structure also witnessed drastic changes as it transcended from joint family to nuclear family structure
According to sociologists like Ėmile Durkheim, Ferdinand Tönnies, Georg Simmel and Max Weber, a transition from multigenerational to nuclear families took place in the nineteenth and early twentieth century due to urbanization and industrialization Pre industrial rural societies were characterized by extended families Urban industrial societies were, by contrast, described by nuclear families and debilitated connection ties, because of an increase in the physical distance among family members and as a result of migration this evolution is explained below in brief:
Stage I - Agricultural Era
The family was structured in an extended form in a rural setting It was based on division of labour wherein the larger family structure was more of a necessity than a choice Children inherited the home and farmland, creating a family cycle based on continuity of labour, lifestyle, and economy The multigenerational family was a standard of living in the pre industrial era (Graham, 2007)
Stage II Industrial Era
The family shifted from agrarian lifestyle to a more urban setting Families that functioned as an extended family during the previous phase, evolved into a single family/nuclear dwelling that focused on the husband, wife, and children living arrangement. This concept created a family and household based on segregation and privacy. (Scanzoni, 2005)
Stage III Post Industrial Era
With the advancement of technology, higher life expectancy, higher cost of living, etc, the family structure has evolved into a dynamic unit. Households are much more diverse in structure. New types of households single parent households, nonfamily households, and multigenerational households are emerging as the new millennium family (Coles, 2000)
Indian Scenario: Joint to Nuclear to Single
With evolving urbanization and industrialization in India, many of the functions of the traditional family have been replaced by institutions like schools, hospitals etc which has led to the disintegration of traditional families and emergence of nuclear families. In modern society where the division of labor is high, people with special skills have to move to urban areas. Isolated nuclear families are most suitable for this kind of geographical mobility. (Parsons 1952,1954, Priya V., 2017).
Recently, rapid urbanization, increase in the number of people with higher education, and participation in the formal labor sector together with change in attitudes and aspirations have created opportunities for the rise of new family structures (Dommaraju,2015)
Along with urbanisation and industrialization and demographic shift Indian families are moving from joint to nuclear and OPH (One person household) As per census data, between 2001 and 2011, the number of nuclear families has shot up from 135 million to 172 million
In India, the number of nuclear families has increased from 45 34% to total households in 1992 to 56% in 2015 (United Nations, 2017) By 2020, it is projected that India will have the 4th highest number of single person households By 2030, single person households will see more growth than any other household, with the addition of another 120 million new OPH over the period This demographic is being driven by younger individuals trading relationships for careers and education along with the growing widowed and separated elderly group, especially more in developed countries
As Delhi is transcending to later stages of family structure evolution, a shift in housing needs is obvious Master Plan Delhi 2021 estimates the required housing units based on population and an average family size of 4 5 (Census of India, 2001)
Based on Population Foundation of India PFI population and demographic composition projections
for the city of Delhi for the years 2041, 2061 and 2081 and assuming five case scenarios for the future average household size which are listed below, the number of housing units required in Delhi is speculated for the purpose of this study
a Average Family Size - 2 (Couple choosing not to have a child)
b Average family Size - 3 (Couple and a child)
c Average Family Size - 4 (Couple and two children)
d Average Family Size 4 5 (Current average continues in the future)
e Average Family Size 5 (Couple with a child and elderly parents )
The above mentioned cases
in
Housing Needs for the Future:
As
Projecting
considered keeping in mind the fact that when there occurs a shift
population stabilisation or decline, obvious impacts
(Mao & Zhou, 1988)
numbers
projections,
size
extrapolated
Source:
Housing strategies
With economic and demographic evolution, the requirements for housing also fluctuate The housing strategy invariably needs to consider the population projection A case study demonstrates how Singapore saw a growth of studio apartments in response to its changing demographics (refer appendix A )
Scenario in Delhi
The DDA is the largest builder of housing in Delhi and has been so since 1962 A closer look at the DDA housing layouts would reveal that the majority of housing projects completed under various schemes have one room or one or two BHK layouts This fulfils the requirement of non multigenerational or nuclear households only
However, DDA housing layouts do not support multigenerational housing of 5+ size which would require at least 2 5 3BHK
Rise of New Typologies
Due to an increase in the number of nuclear families and single person households in the near future in India, providing affordable and convenient accommodation new typologies of flexible housing such as micro or studio apartments may grow to serve both the working population and older people for independent living Typologies such as studio apartments were introduced in 2013 in MPD, 2021 keeping in view the demand for affordable compact housing According to it, studio apartments are a premise in which residential accommodation in the form of multipurpose rooms are provided for individual or small families
Rightsizing of Existing Typologies
Therefore, a mix of typologies is suggested for transition of Delhi Along With existing DDA layouts, studio apartments as well as affordable and bigger 2 5+ apartments are needed
Conclusions
● The words development and future are seen as complementary to each other, pushing the urban planning towards a rather unidirectional approach. This assumption can have severe impacts on the efficient working of the city. This is contradictory to the idea of a sustainable future.
● To balance this haphazard planning, there needs to be phasing in the process of rightsizing in the field of mobility and housing, which form the spine of urban planning. Segmenting it into addition, to absolve inclusivity and cater to all sections of the demographic and subtraction, which will largely happen in the future, so that a certain proportion of residual infrastructure can be downsized as and when required
● The decline and greying of population, also point towards a need to merge different sectors (ex merging housing with medical facilities or employment with housing) for a more coherent and convenient functioning of the urban area
● Also this merging of sectors implies merging of smaller urban units, which also serves the purpose of optimal usage All this points to multi usage of functions This will break the boundaries and tends to promote a fluid way of work
