ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY
JANUARY 2015 - ISTANBUL - TURKEY
© ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY, 2015, Maltepe Anatolian High School, Istanbul, Turkey. This handbook was prepared by Maltepe Anatolian High School for ‘’ Safe Energy, Energy for Future ‘’ project.
ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 11
The Owner Of The Project On Behalf Of The Maltepe Anadolu High School: Selami Aksakallı
Coordinator : Zehra Öztürk Tüm Interpreters : Berran Karahan – Handan Kılıç Text : Handan Kılıç Projection : Ömer Faruk Gürses Edition : Transkop Özalit ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY, 2015 , Maltepe Anadolu High School, Maltepe, İstanbul, Turkey Maltepe Anadolu High School, İdealtepe Hometown , Avcılar Road, Dağçiçeği Street No: 24-2 34841 Maltepe, İSTANBUL Telephone : 0216- 417 29 62 Fax : 0216- 417 29 65 Web Address: www.maltepeanadolu.meb.k12.tr E-mail : maltepe302063@gmail.com ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 11
CONTENTS OVERVIEW 1 1. RESOURCES OF ENERGY ANALYSIS IN TURKEY 3 1.1. ELECTRICITY 4 1.2. PETROL 6 1.3. NATURAL GAS 11 1.4. COAL 14 1.5. HYDRAULICS 17 1.6. WIND 20 1.7. SOLAR 26 1.8. GEOTHERMAL 29 1.9. BIO-FUELS 31 1.10. NUCLEAR 33 1.11. HYDROGEN 37 BIBLIOGRAPHY 40
OVERVIEW
T
urkey's importance in world energy markets is growing, both as a regional energy transit hub and as a growing consumer. Turkey's energy demand has increased rapidly over the past few years and likely will continue to grow in the future.
Over the past three years, Tur-
ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 1
key has experienced some of the fastest growth in energy demand of countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Unlike a number of other OECD countries in Europe, Turkey's economy has avoided the prolonged stagnation that has characterized much of the continent for the past few years. The country's energy use is still relatively low, although it is increasing at a fast pace. According to
the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy use will continue to grow at an annual growth rate of around 4.5% from 2015 to 2030, approximately doubling over the next decade. The IEA expects electricity demand growth to increase at an even faster pace. Meeting this level of growth will require significant investment in the energy sector, much of which will come from the private sector. Although Turkey is planning large investments in natural gas and electricity infrastructure, the government seeks to reduce the country's dependence on imported natural gas by diversifying its energy mix. In addition to being a major market for energy supplies, Turkey's role as an energy transit hub is increasingly important. Turkey is a key part of oil and natural gas supplies movement from Russia, the Caspian region, and the Middle East to Europe. The country has been a major transit point for seaborne-traded oil and is becoming more
important for pipeline- traded oil and natural gas. Growing volumes of Russian and Caspian oil are being sent by tanker via the Turkish Straits to Western markets, while a terminal on Turkey's Mediterranean coast at Ceyhan serves as an outlet for oil exports from northern Iraq and for both oil and natural gas exports from Azerbaijan. [1]
Graph 1: Energy source in Turkey 2012 [2] ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 2
1. RESOURCES OF ENERGY ANALYSIS IN TURKEY
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1.1. ELECTRICITY The gross electricity consump-
tion in Turkey in 2012 was 242,4 billion kWh, while this figure rose by 1,3% in 2013, reaching 245,5 billion kWh. At the same time our electricity output fell by 0,1% when compared to the previous year (239,5 billion kWh) to 239,3 billion kWh. According to the highly probable scenario of an increase of 6,9% to 392 TWh in the base scenario, electricity consumption in the year 2020 is expected to rise by 5,5% to 357,4 TWh. In 2013, power plants containing a total of 6.985 MW additional capacity were added to the system, and our capacity has risen to around 64.044 MW. 43,8% of our electricity output in 2013 cane from natural gas, 24,5% from coal, 24,8% from hydraulic energy, %2 from ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 4
liquid fuels, and 4% from renewable sources. As of the end of 2013, EĂœAS (electricity generating company) had a share of 37,1%, the generation companies 42,8%, the build and operate companies 9,5%, the auto-producers 5,4%, the build-operate-transfer plants 3,6%, and the plants whose operation rights have been transferred 1,5% of the installed capacity within Turkey. In line with the aim of liberalising the electricity market, it has been set forth that new generation investments be carried out by the private sector, in accordance with the Legislation numbered 4628 and the new Electricity Market Legislation numbered 6446. Almost 29.474 MW of the 32.198 MW which has become operational in the last two years comes from the plants built by the private sector. In 2013, power plants containing a total of 6.985 MW additional capacity were added to the system, and of this 6.821 MW comes from the plants built by the private sector. The breakdown of the generation plants which have been ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 5
taken into operation as part of this total of 6.985 MW installed capacity, is as follows: 4 ( 148,6 MW) geothermal, 11 (499,1 MW) wind, 86 (2679,6 MW) hydraulic, 10 (78,4 MW) landfill gas and biogas, 29 (3578,9 MW) thermal plants. It is aimed that a transparent and competitive market be formed in the electricity sector, and that the environment for investment be developed in this way. Within this scope, the efforts to establish EPIAS (Electricity Markets Operating Corporation) are continuing. [4]
Graph 2: Electricity generation vs. installed capacity in Turkey [2]
1.2. PETROL Petrol is a very complex compo-
components of crude oil and natural gas are hydrogen and carbon, these are also known as “hydrocarbons�. The documented petrol reserves nent, comprised primarily of hydrogen throughout the world rose by 7,7% in and carbon, as well as small amounts 2012, from 1.520 billion barrels to 1.637 of nitrogen, oxygen and sulphur. Under billion barrels. normal conditions it can be found in While the amount of petrol regaseous, liquid and solid form. In order serves in the world in 2011 rose by 7,7%, to be able to differentiate petrol which together with the impact of petrol prois in the form of gas from gases which duction, which did not increase by as have been manufactured, it is generally much, the lifespan of world petrol reserknown as natural gas. As the principal ves rose from 44,8 years in 2011, to 48,8 ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 6
years in 2012. Crude oil, which has a strategic position among primary sources of energy, has met 33,1% of the world energy demand as of the beginning of 2012. 102 billion tonnes (57%) of the petrol reserves are in Middle Eastern countries, 16,7 billion tonnes (9%) are in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and 16,9 billion tonnes (10%) are in Africa. The world trade in petrol fell between 2008 - 2010, but is showing a rising trend since 2010. While the production of petrol throughout the world reached 90,9 million barrels/day in 2012, it is expected that in the year 2030 the biggest petrol importers in the world will be China and Europe. America, which is currently the largest petrol importer in the world, is expected to be replaced in this position by China in 2017, and the petrol imports of China, which are supported by the economic growth of ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 7
the country, are expected to make it less dependent on petrol than Europe. Approximately 72% of the world’s producible petrol and natural gas reserves are situated in geographical regions which are close to or country. With its geo-politic position, Turkey neighbours countries possessing three quarters of the world’s petrol and natural gas reserves, is participating in numerous very important projects as a natural “Energy Corridor” between the energy rich Caspian, Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries and the consumer markets in Europe, and providing support to the said projects. It is expected that a significant portion of the demand for primary energy, which is expected to rise by 40% by the year 2030, will be met from the sources located in the region we are located in. The oldest pipeline in Turkey is the Iraq – Turkey Crude Oil Pipeline which carries the petrol from Kirkuk in
Northern Iraq to the West. The quantity of crude oil transported by the pipeline reached 305 million barrels in 1999, but fell to 10.9 billion barrels in 2006, due to the sabotages which took place, and the difficulties experienced in Kirkuk. In 2009 23,3 million tonnes (165 million barrels) of crude oil was transported through this pipeline. Another pipeline
rol is transported through the pipeline, in 2009 this quantity rose to 1,2 million barrels a day. In 2012 a total of 2,3 million tonnes of petrol was produced, and until today a total of 140,2 million tonnes of petrol has been produced. The domestic producible petrol reserves in 2012 were 294,8 million
which transports petrol is the Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan (BTC) Crude Oil Pipeline, which went into operation on 28 May 2006. On 22 June 2008, the daily transport capacity of the pipeline reached 1 million barrels, and, as a result of the endeavours to ensure that more pet-
barrels (43,2 million tonnes), and unless there are any new discoveries, the lifespan of the total domestic crude oil reserves is 18,5 years, based on today’s production levels. In 2012, 9% of the demand for crude oil was met through domestic production, while in natural gas ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 8
this figure was 1,6%. From the year petrol exploration began in our country to the end of 2009, 1.424 exploration wells and 1.808 production, injection and development wells had been opened, and 23 natural gas fields and 102 oil fields, of various sizes, had been discovered. In 2012, 55,50 person/months geological of field work, and 44,46 team/months of geophysical field work
ried out. The fall in production costs in parallel to the rise in petrol and natural gas prices and the advancing technology, has turned the Black Sea Basin into the focal point of petrol companies. Within this framework, the total number of seismic programmes carried out by the Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Sirketi (TPAO) on the seas in the last 8 years, is higher than the total number seismic
was undertaken in our country, a total of 158 wells – 82 exploration wells, 24 detection wells, 51 production wells and 1 reconnaissance well – were opened, and 298.442 meters of drilling was car-
programmes carried out on sea in its 58 year history. Within the scope of activities directed at meeting the ever increasing demand for petrol and natural gas from
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domestic sources, the studies being carried out in the basins of our country, which have not been sufficiently explored, and in particular on the sea in the Black Sea and Mediterranean areas, have gained great momentum. Due to the possibilities of drilling in areas where water is very deep (1.000 – 2.000 m) as a result of the advances in drilling technology in recent years, and the appearance of production possibilities, the structure of hydrocarbons exploration in our seas has been established at pace. In particular, between 2004 and 2011, close to 64.000 km 2B and 14.000 km2 3B seismic studies were carried out by TPAO, and important findings were made concerning the hydrocarbons potential of the region. In the Mediterranean (off the coast of Iskenderun, Cyprus, Mersin and Antalya), close to 20.000 km 2B and 2.500 km2 3B seismic and geological studies were carried out between 2005 and 2011, and important steps were taken in the direction of determining the hydrocarbons potential of the region.
On the other hand, it is planned that the efforts directed at searching for and producing shale gas, which has re-shaped the dynamics in the natural gas markets throughout the whole world, be undertaken in the South-Eastern Anatolian region. Apart from the South-Eastern Anatolian region, it is also believed that there are significant amounts of available shale gas in the Hamitabat and Mezdere areas of the Thracian region, which have yet to be taken into the scope of the operating agreement, but which may be put on the agenda in the coming period. [4]
Graph 3 : Turkey crude oil suooly mix 2012 ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 10
1.3. NATURAL GAS
Natural gas is a gas which is li-
ghter than air, colourless and odourless. It is found beneath the ground, near petrol. It is brought up to the surface in the same way as petrol, and then transported with large pipelines. 76 trillion cubic-meters of the natural gas reserves (41%) are located in ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 11
Middle Eastern countries, with 59 trillion cubic-meters (33%) in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States, 31 trillion cubic-meters (17%) in the Africa / Asia Pacific countries. As of the end of 2012, our remaining producible natural gas reserves were 6,8 billion m3. Our installed capacity using natural gas for the generation of electricity as of the end of 2013 was 20.268 MW, and this value meets 31,6 percent of our total installed capacity. According to the studies on the natural gas supply-demand balances, there are no issues concerning the meeting of the annual natural gas demand. However, during the winter months, when demand is high, the fall of temperatures to levels below seasonal norms, and as a result the rise of consumption to maximum levels, and any faults in the source countries or countries en-route during the same period, can lead to periodic imbalances between supply and demand. Within this framework, the putting into operation of the Silivri natural gas storage facility, which has a total capacity
of 2,6 billion m3, has been considerably beneficial in terms of ensuring the seasonal supply – demand balance and safety of supply. Further, within the scope of the Tuz Gölü (Salt Lake) Natural Gas Underground Storage Project, the cons-
the second phase is completed in 2019. When the project is completed a maximum of 40 million m3 of natural gas will be able to be distributed to the Turkish natural gas network per day. The Baku – Tbilisi – Erzurum
truction of which is currently continuing, the plan is to reach a capacity of 500 million m3 working gas capacity when the first phase is completed in 2016, and 1 billion m3 working gas capacity when
(BTE) Natural Gas Pipeline (the Shah Deniz Project), the objective of which is the transportation of the gas resources of the Caspian region to our country and to Europe, has gone into operation, ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 12
and began to ship natural gas from July 2007. With the Turkey – Greece Natural Gas, which was taken into operation in November 2007, the interconnection of the natural gas transmission network of our country with the infrastructure of neighbouring countries was realised, and our country became a supply bridge for natural gas. On the other hand, a partnership agreement has been signed in connection with participation in the TANAP project, which will carry Caspian natural gas to Europe, and work has begun on the project. The potential of Iraq, which possesses significant reserves of natural gas, continues its importance, both in terms of the needs of our country being met from a different source, and in terms of our international projects. The developments in Iraq are being monitored within this framework. Other than this in our country: Domestic petrol and natural gas search and production activities will continue to be prioritised, and protect their importance. Strategic importance ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 13
will be placed on the passage of project directed at the transportation of natural gas to Europe, in order for the increasing natural gas demand of Europe to be met from the resources in our region. Our policies directed at our country becoming a natural gas hub in the medium and long term will be continued with persistence. [4]
Graph 4: Turkey natural gas supply mix, 2012
1.4. COAL 297 trillion tonnes (32%) of the coal reserves throughout the world are in the Asia Pacific countries, while 254 trillion tonnes (28%) are in North America, and 222 trillion tonnes (24%) are in Russia and the CIS countries. Due to its low grade and the high amount of ash and humidity it possesses, lignite is a type of coal which is generally used as a fuel in thermal power plants. Despite this, as it is quite abundant in the earth’s crust, it is an energy
raw material which is frequently used. Anthracite, on the other hand, is among the group of high calorie coals. The World Energy Council has reported that the world coal reserves are present in around 75 countries, with the largest of these being in the USA, with 237,3 billion tonnes. The USA is followed by the Russia Federation with 157 billion tonnes, and China with 114,5 billion tonnes. Among the other coal rich countries are: Australia (76,4 billion ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 14
tonnes), India (60,6 billion tonnes), Germany (40,7 billion tonnes), Ukraine (33,9 billion tonnes), Kazakhstan (33,6 billion tonnes) and the Republic of South Africa (30,2 billion tonnes). Thus, more than 90% of the world coal reserves are situated within the borders of 9 countries. According to the research carried out by the World Energy Council, the proven and exploitable coal reserves within the world amount to 861 billion tonnes in total. 405 billion tonnes of these are in the anthracite and bituminous coal category, 261 billion tonnes are sub-bituminous coal, and 195 billion tonnes are lignite. When the total coal production in the world in 2012 is taken into consideration, it is calculated that the global coal reserves have a lifespan of around 142 years. As a result of the serious coal exploration activities carried out in recent years, the lignite reserves in our ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 15
country have increased significantly. Together with this, the efforts directed at classifying the said reserves in accordance with international standards, and determining our economically exploitable reserves, are continuing. Our country is evaluated as being at medium levels in terms of the reserves and production amounts of lignite, and at low levels in terms of anthracite. Approximately 1,6% of the total world reserves of lignite are in our country. Together with this, as the grade of a large portion of our lignite is low, its use in thermal plants has stood out. Approximately 46% of the lignite reserves
in our country are located in the Afsin – Elbistan basin. The most important anthracite reserves of our country are in Zonguldak and the surrounding regions. The total anthracite reserves in the Zonguldak basin are 1.322 billion tonnes, and the visible reserves are around 519 million tonnes. Lignite fields are spread out among all regions of our country, and the grade of the lignite coal in these fields varies between 1000-5000 kcal/kg. Around 68% of the total lignite reserves in our country are low calorie, with 23,5% between 2000-3000 kcal/kg, 5,1% between 3000-4000 kcal/kg, and 3,4% is above 4000 kcal/kg grading. In 2012, our country possessed 121 Million Tonnes of Equivalent Petrol (MTEP), with the share of coal in the total primary energy consumption being 31%. As of the end of 2013, the power plant installed capacity dependent on coal in our country, was 12.563 MW, and this is equal to 20% of the total installed capacity. The installed capacity using
domestic coal is 8.515 MW (13,3%) and using imported coal is 4.048 MW (6,3%). With the aim of meeting the demand for energy which is rising in parallel with industrialisation and the increase in the population, the efforts to find new coal fields and developing the existing fields, within the framework of the objectives of placing more importance on domestic resources, and decreasing the dependence on imports in the production of energy since 2005, have been speeded up. The boring activities in the exploration for coal have risen five fold in the last five years, and, in addition to the 8,3 billion tonnes of existing reserves, 4,1 billion tonnes of new lignite reserves were determined as of May 2008, as a result of these explorations. In 2013, a total of 61,5 TWh gross electricity was generated from coal, and this is around 25,7% of the total gross electricity generation amount. An increase of a total of around 5,8 billion tonnes of reserves was realised between 2005-2012. The level of lignite reserves ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 16
in 2005 were 8,3 billion tonnes, while at the end of 2012 this level had risen to14 billion tonnes. [4] Table 1: The reserves discovered between 2005-2012
TURKEY LIGNITE RESERVE RESERVE ZONES AMOUNT Konya-Karapinar 1.832 Afsin Elbistan 1.300 Eskisehir-Alpu 777 Afyon-Dinar 545 Elbistan 515 Tekirdag-ร erkezkรถy 495 Manisa-Soma 205 Pinarhisar-Vize 140 Malatya 17 Total 5.826 The efforts directed at putting our lignite fields, whose reserves have been determined, an which possess the features required to establish thermal plants, into operation quickly, rather than using natural gas, which is an imported resource, in the generation of electricity, and of adding new units to existing plants, are continuing. [4] ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 17
1.5. HYDRAULICS Among the various sources of
energy, hydroelectricity power stations are preferred due to their being environmentally friendly and carrying low potential risk. Hydroelectricity plants work in
harmony with the environment, are clean, renewable, and highly productive plants with no fuel expenses. They take on the role of an insurance in energy prices, have a long lifespan, low operating costs, and are not dependent on imports. The theoretical hydroelectricity potential of our country is 1% of theo-
retical potential of the world, while its economic potential is 16% of the economic potential of Europe. Our hydraulic resources, which hold the most important position in the renewable energy potential of our country, possess a hydroelectricity potential of 433 billion kWh, while the technically usable potential is 216 kWh, ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 18
and the economic hydroelectricity potential is 140 billion kWh/year. As of the end of 2013, 41% of the potential which is said to be economic, was in operation, and 27% was in the process of being built (including private sector projects). Turkey continues to take steps towards developing the investment environment based on competition within the energy sector, and establishing a transparent market structure, and, in particular with the influence of the legal arrangements directed at renewable energy, in the electricity generation sector, which has been opened up to the private sector, 560 licenses had been obtained as of January 2013 (a total capacity of 12.515 MW) in order to build hydroelectricity plants (HES). As of the end of 2013, there were 467 HES plants, with a total installed capacity of 22.289 MW. This is the equivalent of 34,8% of the total potential. In 2013, 24,8% of our electricity output came from hydraulics. The dry weather experienced in recent years has caused hydroelectricity ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 19
plants to not make the contribution that is expected of them. However, in 2013, hydroelectricity production rose by 2,4% when compared to 2012, with a total output of 59.245 MW It is aimed that all of the hydroelectricity potential which can be evaluated – both technically and economically – be used in the generation of electricity until 2023, with the target of using all of our 36.000 MW hydroelectricity potential by that year. [4]
diation on the surface of the earth. These different temperatures cause humidity and pressure levels to vary as well, and the difference in the pressure levels causes the air to move. Approximately 2% of the solar energy which reaches the ind comes about from the earth is converted into wind energy. varied temperatures created by solar ra- In meteorological terms, wind ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 20
1.6. WIND
W
can develop in the following locations: Locations where changes in pressure are high; High, even hills and valleys; Regions which are under the impact of strong geostrophic winds; Coastal areas; Mountain ranges, valleys and hills where canal effects are present. The characteristics of the wind differs (in respect of time and region), based on local geographic differences
ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 21
and the non-homogenous temperatures of the surface of the earth. Wind is stated as two separate parameters – speed and direction. The speed of the wind rises with height, and its theoretical strength changes proportionately to its cubic speed. The initial investment costs of wind energy applications are high, and their capacity factors are low. Together with this, they have the disadvantage of inconsistent energy production. Their advantages, on the other hand, can be
listed as follows: In plentiful and free supply within the atmosphere; It is a renewable and clean source of energy, and is environmentally friendly; Its source is reliable, and there are no risks of running out or prices increasing over time; Its cost has reached the level where it is able to compete with the power plants of today; Maintenance and repair costs are low; It creates employment; Its raw materials are completely domestic, and it does not create a dependence on imports; The installation and operation of its technology is relatively simple; It can be taken into operation within a short time. The classification of the electricity energy generated from wind, as a function of the average wind speed at the hub height, is given below. Accordingly, the average wind speed at the re-
levant location is: 6.5 m/s medium level in terms of wind speed energy, 7.5 m/s good, 8.5 m/s and above speeds are evaluated as being very good. Wind energy has been used from the first ages, by taking advantage of the shaft power of the turbine, for pumping water, cutting various products, shearing, grinding, pressing, obtaining oil, and other similar activities where mechanic energy is needed. The most effective manners of use of wind energy can be summarised as below: Mechanical applications (water pumping system); Electrical applications (systems with network connections, and stand-alone systems without network connections); Thermal energy applications. Wind turbines are the principal structural elements of wind energy plants, and are machines which convert the kinetic energy of the moving air, first of all to mechanic energy, and then to electricity energy. Wind turbines can be manufacENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 22
tured either with a horizontal or a vertical axis, based on the direction of their rotational axis. Wind turbines with a horizontal axis are more widely used. These types of wind turbines can be built with one, two, three or multiple propellers. Wind turbines with a horizontal axis are also known either as up-wind or down-wind turbines. The axes of wind turbines with a vertical axis are straight and vertical towards the direction of the wind, and their propellers are also vertical. Modern wind turbines, which are used for generating electricity, and are connected to the network, mostly have 3 propellers, horizontal axes, and are wind turbines of the up-wind type. In parallel with the technological developments of our day, wind turbines with horizontal axes with a power of 1,0-7,5 MW are used in the large, powerful wind energy plants. The propeller dimensions of wind turbines with three propellers has reached 100 m, and, indeed, more. The hubs of modern wind turbines are 60-120 m above ground leENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 23
vel, on a tower. The amounts of energy which can be obtained from one wind turbine is dependent, in the first degree, on the wind speed at the turbine hub height. Raising the hub higher will ensure maximum benefit from the existing wind power. Wind turbines are only able to start generating electricity energy at a specific wind speed. A wind turbine will generate energy in between the cut-in and cut-out speeds. The cut-in speeds of modern wind turbines are between 2-4 m/s, their nominal speeds are between 10-15 m/s, and their cut out speeds are between 25-35 m/s. Each wind turbine reaches the maximum power value which can be obtained from the system at a specific wind speed. This maximum power is known as nominal power and the wind speed at this level is known as the nominal speed. Wind turbines automatically stop after a certain wind speed has been exceeded, in order to ensure that the system is not damaged. This maximum speed is known as the system cut-out speed. ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 24
The body possesses sound insulation in order to prevent noise pollution. The towers are built in the form of cages or pipes. As the towers can be very high, the constructions outside the cage towers can consist of two or three parts. It has been accepted that wind plants with a capacity of 5 MW can be established in Turkey at heights of 50 meters above ground level, and in areas with a wind speed exceeding 7.5 m/s. In the light of this acceptance, a Potential Wind Energy Map (PWEM) has been prepared, where the source wind details obtained using a mid-scale weather forecast model and micro-scale wind flow model are given. The wind energy potential of Turkey has been determined as 48.000 MW. The total area which is equivalent to this potential is just 1.30% of the total surface area of Turkey. As of the end of 2013, the amount of wind energy generated per annum was 7.518 GWh, while the installed capacity of the wind energy plants in operation on the same date was 2.760 MW. According to a study published ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 25
by World Energy, based on the assumption that regions with a wind speed exceeding 5.1 m/s will only be able to use 4% due to application related and social limitations, the technical wind energy potential throughout the world has been calculated as 53.000 TWh / year. The total realised generation of wind energy throughout the world, as of 2012, was 557 TWh / year, and the ratio of this in the total generation of energy was 2.6%. The installed capacity of wind plants which were operational as of the end of December 2013, was approximately 300 GW. [4] Graph 5: Wind energy profile in Turkey [2]
1.7. SOLAR Our country is very lucky to
tal solar energy derived per year is 1.527 kWh/m2 per year (total 4,2 kWh/m2 per day). While solar energy technologies possess a high solar energy potential, in are extremely varied in terms of their terms of its geographical location. methods, materials and technological According to the Solar Energy levels, they can be split into two princiMap (SEM) of Turkey prepared by the pal groups: Renewable Energy General Directora- Photo-emissive Solar Technote, it has been determined that the total logies and Concentrated Solar Power annual insolation time is 2.737 hours (a (CSP): In this system heat is obtained total of 7i5 hours per day), and the to- from solar energy, and can be used eitENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 26
her directly or in the generation of electricity. Solar Cells: Semi-conducting materials, which are also known as photovoltaic solar energy systems, convert the sunlight directly into electricity. The total established solar collector area within our country as of 2012 was calculated as being close to 18.640.000 m2. The annual production of planary solar collectors was calculated as 1.164.000 m2, while that of vacuum-tube collectors was 57.600 m2. 50% of the planary collectors, and all of the
ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 27
vacuum-tube collectors which are produced are known to be used within the country. In 2012, close to 768.000 TEP Tonnes Equivalent to Petrol) heat energy was produced using solar collectors. The use of the heat energy produced in 2012 was calculated as 500.000 TEP in homes, and 268.000 TEP for industrial purposes. The Renewable Energy Resources Legislation numbered 5346, which is necessary in order for the use of photovoltaic systems to become more widespread, was revised on 29.12.2010,
and the studies concerning the Legislation were completed in 2013. It is expected that there will be more widespread use as a result of the costs of photovoltaic systems falling, and productivity rising in recent years. The technical evaluations of the applications made to EMRA for the licensed generation of electricity in 2013 are currently being carried out, and photovoltaic plant licenses will be given to 600 MW of installed capacity at this first stage. This capacity will be increa-
sed in stages in the coming years, with the target of our Ministry being a minimum of 3000 MW installed capacity of license PV plants in 2023. There are also small-scale photovoltaic solar energy systems, which have already been established in our country, for the purpose of meeting small quantities of power, and for research purposes. Most of these have been established by public sector organisations, and these have reached an installed capacity of 3,5 MW. ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 28
1.8. GEOTHERMAL Geothermal energy is the heat energy obtained from the hot water, steam, dry steam and hot dry rocks, which have gathered within rocks in the depths underneath the soil, and have moved and were stored by the fluid heat, by artificial methods. Geothermal sources are mostly formed around active fault systems and volcanic ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 29
and magmatic units. Modern geothermal plants which use geothermal energy emit very low amounts of CO2, NOx, and SOx gases, and therefore, it is evaluated as a very clean source of energy. Geothermal energy includes all types of direct or indirect benefit derived from geothermal sources. Low temperature (20-70 C) fields are used for heating in particular, as well as in industry, for the production of chemicals. Medium temperature (70-150 C) and high temperature (above 150 C) fields can be used for the generation of electricity as well as in heating applications, in an integrated manner, subject to the re-injection conditions. The installed capacity of geothermal energy as of August 2013 was 11,766 MW. The annual electricity output from this source is approximately 68,6 billion kWh, and the top five countries in this area are the USA, the Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico and Italy. Its use other than for the generation of electricity is 50.000 MW.
The top 5 countries in geothermal heat and hot springs applications are China, the USA, Sweden, Turkey and Japan. As Turkey is situated on the Alps – Himalayas belt, it is a country with quite a high geothermal potential. In theory, the geothermal capacity of our country is 31.500 MW. 79% o the areas with a potential within our country are situated in Western Anatolia, 8,5% in Central Anatolia, 7,5% in the Marmara Region, 4,5% in Eastern Anatolia and 0,5% in the other regions. 94% of our geothermal resources are low and medium heat, and suitable for direct applications (heating, thermal tourism, the output of minerals, etc.), while 6% are suitable for indirect applications (the generation of electricity energy). The search efforts for geothermal energy have become more dynamic in recent years, and as of the end of 2013, the Mine Detection and Search (MDS) General Directorate, which is an affiliated organisation of our Ministry, has carried out a total of 576 explorations across 328.711 m.. From this 227 fields
have been discovered and, other than natural exits, 4.900 MW of heat energy has been obtained from the wells which have been established. With the increase in recent years, the number of tourism and health oriented thermal facilities in our country has reached 350. Additionally, the heating of greenhouses, which was 500 decares in 2002, has reached 2924 in 2013, while the heating of homes, which provided heating energy to 30.000 homes in 2002, has risen to 89.433 homes as of the end of 2013. In theory, the electricity which can be potentially generated through geothermal energy in Turkey has been estimated as 2.000 MW. As of the end of 2013, the geothermal electricity generation potential of those who had obtained licenses from EMRA, reached 706,4 MW. This figure is expected to reach 1.000 MW by the end of 2023. There are a total of 15 geothermal energy plants in our country as of today, and our installed capacity has reached 404,9 MW. ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 30
1.9. BIO-FUELS
In our country, biodiesel is a fuel which can be used in every area where diesel is used, except for our very cold regions. While biodiesel is used in place of diesel in the transport sector, it is also a fuel which can be used as fuel oil in the housing and industrial sectors. Biodiesel is obtained from agricultural plants, and converts CO2 by photosynthesis, ensuring the carbon cycle. Therefore, it does not have any ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 31
impact of increasing the greenhouse effect. Bio-ethanol is an alternative fuel, whose raw materials are obtained by the fermentation of agricultural products which contain cellulose, such as sugar beet, corn, wheat and woody plants, or starch, and is used following being mixed with petrol at a specific ratio. It is mixed with petrol in the transport sector, and also used in small household equipment and the chemical products sector. Bio-ethanol increases the oxygen levels within the fuel and ensures that it burns more efficiently. It reduces the harmful gases in the emissions from
the exhaust, and is an environmentally friendly alternative to carcinogens. It reduces exhaust emissions. The total consumption of fuels in our country is 22 million tonnes. 3 million tonnes of this is petrol. In contrast to this the installed capacity for biodiesel in our country is 160 thousand tonnes. The most criticised feature of bio-fuel farming is that it creates a risk in terms of food safety by setting aside land which is suitable for food farming to the production of biodiesel and bio-ethanol. Bio-gas is the methane an carbon-dioxide gas which is predominantly formed as a result of the biological break up of organic materials (anaerobic
fermentation) in conditions where no oxygen is present (animal waste, plant waste, urban and industrial waste). Biogas technology facilitates both the acquisition of energy from organic rooted waste and the redounding of the waste into the soil. It is estimated that the bio-gas quantities which can be produced, based on its animal waste potential, is 1,52 million tonnes of equivalent petrol (MTEP). Our biomass sources are comprised of agricultural, forestry, animal, organic, urban, etc. waste. Our waste potential is close to 8,6 MTEP, and 6 MTEP of this is used for heating purposes.
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1.10. NUCLEAR A huge amount of energy is
released when atom particles are split. This energy, which is obtained from fission and fusion reactions is known as “particle energy” or “nuclear energy”. Nuclear reactors are the systems which convert nuclear energy into electricity energy. Fundamentally, the nuclear energy which is released as a result of fission, is converted into heat energy within the nuclear fuels and other materials, this heat energy is converted into ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 33
kinetic energy, and later, within the generator system, into electricity energy. A nuclear reactor with a capacity of 1.000 MWe will produce approximately 27 tonnes (7m3) of used fuel a year. Nuclear plants are an alternative which should be preferred in terms of their environmental impact. The maximum amount of radioactivity which can be released by nuclear reactors, which operate under normal operating conditions, is limited to 0,1-1% of the normal natural radiation levels, while in practice the situation is even lower than these limits. In respect of the continuity of electricity generation, nuclear plants are safer and more disposable than thermal and hydraulic plants. As well as the developments oriented towards the more widespread use of renewable energy sources throughout the world, projects directed at nuclear energy investments have begun to gain momentum on the global scale. As of May 2013, there are 436 nuclear plants operating in 31 countries, with 68
more nuclear plants, with a total installed capacity of 65.5 GW, are currently being built in 15 countries. It is calculated that the generation of electricity from nuclear energy, which was 2,756 TWh in 2010, will rise to 3,908 TWh in 2035, but that the share of nuclear energy in the total generation of electricity will fall from 12.9% to 9.7% over the same period. While the installed capacity of nuclear plants throughout the world is expected to reach 524 GW in 2035 (from 394 GW in 2010), a 32% decrease is expected in the capacity within the European Union. It is expected that the installed capacity of nuclear plants in the European Union will fall to 94 GW in 2035 (from 138 GW in 2010). By 2035, an increase
of 127 GW is expected in non-OECD Asian countries, with the brunt of this being borne by China (105 GW). It is also expected that Russia will increase its nuclear capacity by 50% (12 GW) by 2035, through additional units. And the USA is expected to reach 111 GW in 2035, with an increase of 5 GW. When taking into account the nuclear plants to be established in Akkuyu and Sinop, approximately 80 billion kWh of electricity output is expected per year. In order to be able to generate this amount of electricity from natural gas, close to 16 billion cubic meters of natural gas would need to be imported, in return for a payment of 7,2 billion US Dollars (close to 13 billion TL). Thus, the money used to pay ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 34
for this amount of natural gas imports in just 3 years will be enough to build a 4 unit nuclear plant in Mersin – Akkuyu. Nuclear power plants should not just be evaluated as electricity generation plants. A nuclear plant project is comprised of approximately 550 thousand parts, and with the dynamism and employment it will bring to other sectors as well, it will provide significant added value to industry in our country. The ideal of our country for half a century has been to establish a nuclear power plant. This has begun to be realised with the signing of the Agreement Concerning the Cooperation for the establishment and Operation of a Nuclear power Plant in the Akkuyu Field, between the Government of the Republic of ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 35
Turkey and the Russian Federation, on 12 May 2010. The said agreement was accepted by the general assembly of the TBMM on 15 July 2010, and published in the Official Gazette dated 6 October 2010, and numbered 27721. Within the framework of the realisation of the said agreement, the Project Company, entitled Akkuyu NGS Elektrik Ăœretim A.S., was established in Ankara, on 13 December 2010. A total of 300 Turkish students (50 this year) have been sent to Russia to work as interns in the plants situated there, and following a training lasting around 9,5 years, they will be employed in various different areas of the Akkuyu Nuclear Plant Project, from engineers to managers.
In order to meet the fast rising demand for electricity, and reduce the risks associated with being dependent on imports, it is planned to take 2 nuclear power plants into operation by 2023, and to begin the construction of a further 3 during the same period. With this purpose in mind, the company, Akkuyu Nükleer Güç Santrali Elektrik Üretim A.S., which was established within the framework of the agreement between the Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation, which took effect on 27 December 2010, for the establishment of a nuclear power plant in the Mersin – Akkuyu field, and the capital of which Russian in full, prepared an “Updated Location Report” and submitted this for assessment by the Turkish Atomic Energy Authority (TAEK), on 22 May 2012. TAEK informed the project company on
08 June 2012 that the report was being examined in detail. Together with this agreement, it is envisaged that a nuclear plant comprising four VVER-1200 type units, and with a total installed capacity of 4.800 MW. On the other hand, an agreement was also signed in 2013, for the establishment of a nuclear plant in Sinop, and the work related to this is currently ongoing. Based on the supply and demand projections for electricity energy in our country, it is aimed that the share of the electricity generated by nuclear energy plants within the total, reach 5% by 2020. With this purpose in mind, the Legislation on the Establishment and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants, and their Sales of Energy, numbered 5710, was passed in 2007. [4]
ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 36
1.11. HYDROGEN The fuel from the heat ema-
nated by the sun and the other stars in response to thermo-nuclear reactions is hydrogen, which is the basic energy source of the universe. Of all known fuels, hydrogen is the one with the highest content of energy per unit mass. 1 kg of hydrogen possesses 2,1 kg of natural gas or 2,8 kg ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 37
of petrol. However, its volume per unit mass is high. The use of hydrogen in every area which requires heat and combustion energy is clean and simple. Where it is used as a fuel within energy systems the product released into the atmosphere is only water and / or steam. Hydrogen, is, on average 33% more productive than petrol based fuels. When obtaining energy from hydrogen, there are no
gases or harmful chemicals produced, which will pollute the environment and increase the greenhouse effect, other than steam. Researches have shown that under current conditions hydrogen is approximately three times more expensive than other fuels and that its widespread use will be dependent on the development of technologies which will lower the cost of hydrogen production.
Together with this, the storage of any excess supply of electricity energy, which may become available from time to time (on a daily or seasonal basis) as hydrogen, can be evaluated as a valid alternative for today. The widespread use of the energy stored in this way (for example for mass transport vehicles) is dependent on the development of automotive technologies using fuel cells. [4]
ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 38
Figure 1: Renewable energy in Turkey [5]
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BIBLIOGRAPHY [1]http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=TU [2]http://www.enercee.net/fileadmin/enercee/images/Turkey/TU-prim_prod_ energy_12.PNG [3]http://www.ceenenerji.com/sayfa/electricity-demand-and-supply-continue-downward-trend-in-turkey-214/ [4] http://www.enerji.gov.tr/en-US [5]http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/05/30/wind-water-steam-atriple-win-for-turkey-energy-sector
ENERGY ANALYSIS OF TURKEY 40 11
PREPARED BY MALTEPE ANATOLIAN HIGH SCHOOL