SUPPORTING YOUR EFFORTS ON UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
get a good understanding of the problem. Typically, wicked problems cannot be solved in the generally accepted sense and the focus should be on how to mitigate their immediate impact. Gaining a deep understanding of the problem, the people involved and how this problem may impact on others is key. Addressing a wicked problem requires an interdisciplinary, iterative approach.
Nicola Morrill
“Complex dynamic systems often generate counterintuitive behaviour” John Sterman COP26 has happened since my last column, and I thought climate change would be an interesting topic to explore. I will briefly outline several ways that O.R. and Analytics can help with understanding the potential impact of climate change. It’s not possible to cover all the possible ways O.R. could help – there are far too many! Instead, I’ve tried to highlight where perhaps lesser-known areas of O.R. can help. In my next article I will explore where more traditional areas of O.R. and Analytics are able to help.
EXPRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE AS A PROBLEM
Firstly, I think it’s helpful to consider the nature of climate change as a problem. In previous columns, I have talked about planning in Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) environments and where improving understanding is key. climate change most certainly creates a VUCA situation. Aligned with this, climate change is what is referred to as a ‘wicked problem’: generally, a social or cultural problem that’s difficult or impossible to solve—normally because of its complex and interconnected nature. It’s really difficult to
From the Futures and Foresight worlds, climate change is an example of a Megatrend. These are large, transformative global forces that define the future by having far reaching impacts on global society. Megatrends are typically slow to form; persist for a long time (circa. 10-15 years); occur at a global or large scale; and are visible and well known to everyone. They are the underlying forces that drive trends. Again, the guidance is about understanding megatrends and how they might impact on your world. So how on earth can O.R. help?
IT’S ALL A BIT COMPLEX
Climate change is made for a systems approach! It is such a complex space that a holistic approach needs to be taken. It is necessary to think about the link between different elements and what behaviour this might drive over time. There is a significant amount of material written about climate change and the link to systems thinking. An example is an article in Nature by Berry et al. in 2018, which presented the case for systems thinking for climate change. See https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0102-4. The Systems Thinking for Efficient Energy Planning (STEEP) Project (see https://www.cse.org.uk/projects/ view/1244) is an example of Systems Thinking being used to support low-carbon urban energy master planning in three cities. The work undertaken highlights the complexity of the problem space and the impact different stakeholder
IMPACT © THE OR SOCIETY
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