The Insider - Champions League & Europa League special - October 2013

THE

ISSUE 164 WEDNESDAY 9 OCTOBER 2013

Laszlo Szirtesi / Shutterstock.com

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ISSUE

WHO WILL WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE? No team has ever won back-to-back Champions League titles. But as you’ll see inside this UEFA Champions League and Europa League special issue – there are plenty of reasons to back Bayern Munich to do it. And there are some great prices available on teams from all over Europe…

BLUE IS THE COLOUR IN GROUP E… I’m not often one to plough into the short prices, but I cannot ignore Chelsea at 7/10 to win Group E – their 2-1 loss at home to Basel saw the bookmakers knock them out to 8/11 after being a 1/5 favourite to top the group before a ball was kicked, but plenty has happened since that opening round loss to merit a far bigger ‘correction’ than simply slicing 2 ticks off their post round one price.

The truth of the matter is that Chelsea – after taking a first half lead against Basel – fell asleep in the second period… conceded a couple of soft goals when attempting to press… only to kick on again when it was too late.

Coupled with the fact that Mourinho was probably guilty of making a tactical rick – playing Willan and Eto’o was a disaster, they managed just one shot between them – and you have yourself a result that, for my money, will be a one-off for the Londoners this season.

INSIDE THIS ISSUE...

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Winners of Group E and Group F SEE PAGES 1 & 2

EUROPA LEAGUE Group B and Group C Previews.

SEE PAGE 3

EUROPA LEAGUE Discover the hidden Match Stats...

SEE PAGE 4

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 7/2 Outright Winner.

SEE PAGE 5

EUROPA LEAGUE 7/1 Outright Winner.

SEE PAGE 6

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Name the Finalists and Golden Boot.

SEE PAGE 7

THE BACKPAGE All the bets in this issue – at-a-glance.

SEE PAGE 8

FOLLOW ALL YOUR BETS AT INSIDERBET.CO.UK

ISSUE 164 // Wednesday 09 October 2013

FORM LINES...

The two matches I would rather focus in on was Chelsea’s draw at White Hart Lane and their subsequent win against Steaua

IT’S GOTTA BE THE GUNNERS IN GROUP F…

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP E Chelsea

Group E Price

To Qualify

Current Points

Goal Difference

Win UCL Outright

7/10

1/12

3

+3

14/1

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP F Group F Price

To Qualify

Current Points

Goal Difference

Win UCL Outright

Arsenal

5/6

1/4

6

+3

18/1

Schalke

6/4

1/6

6

+4

200/1

Dortmund

15/8

4/9

3

+2

18/1

Basel

25/1

7/2

3

0

600/1

Napoli

6/1

6/5

3

-1

50/1

Steaua

250/1

33/1

0

-7

10000/1

125/1

20/1

0

-4

750/1

Bucharest – the important factor to note here was Mourinho’s squad selection; which saw the one time outcast, Juan Mata, produce two significant displays.

The first was against Spurs where he came on as a substitute and turned the game on its head – the second, against Steaua, was equally as good, only this time the Spaniard had 81 minutes to impress rather than just 45.

Losing Torres is a blow for the club as he is likely to miss the trip to Schalke, but given the way Eto’o and Schurrle performed in Romania, the Blues are starting to look a lot more dangerous in attack.

Schalke are the second favourites for the group – at a best priced 7/4 in a place – but other than the fact they already have six points in the bag, I’m struggling to find a positive for a side that has consistently struggled in the Bundesliga so far this season.

Conceding 16 goals in 7 matches is a bad enough headline, but as we saw against Hoffenheim they continue to defend badly even when in front – and that’s always a terminal sign

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING: With Basel failing miserably to backup that win in London and Steaua looking like one of the worst sides in the competition at the moment, the Group E race looks between Chelsea and Schalke and given the tie-breaker is 1) head to head points 2) head to head goal diff and 3) away goals… I’ll happily side with the Blues at this price

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP E & GROUP F WINNERS TIP

Chelsea to win Group E

Arsenal to win Group F

STAKE

£10.00

£10.00

PRICE

October – December 2013

7/10

5/6

7/10 AT

5/6 AT

[2]

Marseille

I’m happy to take 5/6 Arsenal to win Group F – the main reason is Mesut Ozil, a brilliant signing by the Gunners who right now has made a world of difference after being with the club for just a few games. If they can keep him fit - and nurse the walking wounded back to full health – this short benched side might just be able rotate their way through to Christmas.

The problem with the above prices is the quote for Napoli – that 6/1 is awful value about a side that should never have beaten Dortmund first up and are basically living off that result at the moment. Their performance in London on Match-day 2 (lost 2-0 at Arsenal) was awful and against two sides as offensively strong as Dortmund and Arsenal, they are a genuine 10/1 chance in my book.

That’s 4% of margin there that should be piled into Arsenal’s price.

ARSENAL V DORTMUND...

Dortmund’s quote looks about right to me. Their form in the Bundesliga has been very impressive but whist it’s hard to knock their superb efforts so far this season, there are some defensive warning signs that suggest this apparently brilliant team might not be quite as stellar as their record suggests…

Their away win at Frankfurt – one of the best teams they have played this season – was certainly not the walk in the park some expected. Dortmund ended up conceding a huge 13 shots from inside the box whilst generating ‘just’ nine and those kinds of defensive numbers worry me when the likes of Arsenal are in the queue to take

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING: Arsenal and Dortmund are evenly matched but with a 3 point head start the Gunners deserve to be shorter than a 5/6 shot for the group – once again it’s the head to head tiebreaker that makes all the difference here and with Dortmund’s defensive record in mind, it’s impossible to make the Germans the favourite over the Gunners over the best of two legs

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EUROPA LEAGUE – GROUP B & GROUP C PREVIEWS

EUROPA LEAGUE – BACK THE BULGARIANS IN GROUP B

EUROPA LEAGUE – DANES ‘TO QUALIFY’ FROM GROUP C

EUROPA LEAGUE GROUP B Ludogorets

EUROPA LEAGUE GROUP C

Group B Price

To Qualify

Current Points

Goal Difference

Win UCL Outright

6/5

1/5

6

+5

14/1

FC Salzburg

Group C Price

To Qualify

Current Points

Goal Difference

Win UCL Outright

2/7

1/25

6

+5

80/1

PSV

6/4

1/4

3

0

50/1

Esbjerg fB

8/1

11/10

3

0

200/1

Chornomorets

7/1

2/1

3

-1

600/1

IF Elfsborg

28/1

8/1

1

-4

500/1

Dinamo Zagreb

50/1

6/1

0

-4

10000/1

Standard L

8/1

8/11

1

-1

125/1

Europa League Group B is a fascinating one to get stuck into – two teams that few punters will know much about mixed up with a couple of household names from the continent.

This reminds me a lot of last year’s Europa League Group F where we successfully opposed the big guns of Napoli and PSV with Dnipro – at the very healthy price of 7/2. A year later and I’m opposing PSV again, with another little known team that should be odds on to progress to the knockout stages as the group winner.

First up a little bit about PFC Ludogorets Razgrad who were purchased by Kiril Domuschiev back in 2010 – a huge cash injection followed and the following season they achieved promotion to Bulgaria’s Group A for the first time in the clubs history. The following season (2011/12) they achieved the league and cup double which they followed up with a win in the Bulgarian Supercup. The Eagles won the league in 2012/13 and further strengthened their squad – they made it through to the Champions League playoffs, but ended up being defeated over two legs by Basel.

This season saw the Eagles make their Europa League debut and with two games played the current Bulgarian league leaders have a maximum six points from six with a 2-0 away win in PSV together with a 3-0 home victory over Dinamo Zagreb.

I’ve taken a close look at both of those matches and Ludogorets were for the most part top class – outplaying both PSV and Zagreb with the Bulgarians performance in Holland particularly impressive

I’ve spent a lot of time on this group I am settling firmly on the side of Esbjerg fB qualifying for the knockout stages, and I’m happy with the odds of 11/10.

FC Salzburg are different class to their Group C peers – they have kicked off their Europa campaign with a brace of wins and have looked well worthy of their 2/7 group winner price tag.

The betting interest therefore lies in the ‘To Qualify’ market and, once again, the bookmakers have underestimated the importance of the head to head breaker and coupled with a really strong form line, Esbjerg fB make plenty of appeal at odds of 11/10 to qualify for the knockout stages.

Standard Liege are making the book here, but I’m afraid any side that fails to dominate against a troubled Elfsborg is not worthy of such a short price in the ‘To Qualify’ market.

Their fixtures have fallen badly with a double header against Salzburg coming at a time when they are clearly struggling for form and there’s every chance that they will need to win both of their final two Group C matches if they are to progress to the next round

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING: The Danish side Esbjerg fB catches the eye by default. They played very well against Salzburg and already have a win against Liege in the bank. Their November double header against Elfsborg will be key, but if they put in a performance similar to the one that they chalked up against Red Bull at the start of the month, they will be too good for the Swedes – and a point will suffice in the away leg

EUROPA LEAGUE

EUROPA LEAGUE

GROUP B WINNER

GROUP C – TO QUALIFY

TIP

Ludogorets to win Europa League Group B

TIP

Esbjerg fB ‘To Qualify’ – Europa League Group C

STAKE

£10.00

STAKE

£3.00

6/5 (Minimum 11/10)

PRICE

October – December 2013

PRICE

October – December 2013

11/10 (Minimum Evens)

6/5 AT

6/5 AT

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ISSUE 164 // Wednesday 09 October 2013

INSIDER INFO:

EUROPA LEAGUE STATS… THERE ARE PLENTY OF OSCURE TEAMS IN THE EUROPA LEAGUE THIS SEASON AND WE SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE WORTH OF THEIR MATCH STATS… On a day to day basis, we have no chance of getting any kind of match stats for the likes of Thun, Chernomorets, Ludogorets or Pandurii – but thanks to their participation in this year’s Europa League we get the full set of match stats for every one of their games – including passes, shots, possession, and corners won.

These figures might well be a short term snapshot of a team’s ability, but do not underestimate their worth in the context of short term results. Latching on to these teams early and identifying a trend can be a lucrative strategy – especially when a majority of the bookies prices are constructed using irrelevant league form…

THE GOOD & BAD FROM 2013/14…

WHAT IS SHOT FLOW? Shot flow is rarely talked about yet it is a critical aspect of how good the form is.

Basically, it’s quite common to see a team overachieve when behind and underachieve when in front – it’s when a team bucks either trend that we should take heed.

The great teams bully when ahead … poor teams do nothing when behind … the shot flow (IE the order in which the teams shoot) from the match will indicate exactly what is going on

We’ve already backed Ludogorets for Group B and when you take a closer look at their Europa performances so far this season, you’ll see why I’m so keen. Their shot flow away to PSV was very interesting – after an evenly contested first half, the Bulgarian champions dominated the second-half, out-shooting PSV in the last quarter of the game... And teams that produce quality play when they are two goals up are worth latching on to.

With two games now in the stats tank we have a general idea of how a team is shaping up and with this information onside we can start to form a few solid opinions on their future performances – that’s not to say we lean on these stats 100%, but when combined with the domestic situation and some match report reading, it’s possible to make a few solid observations.

Other teams that have caught my eye are Anzhi – for a Negative. The Russians performance against Spurs was dire with little in the way of urgency despite trailing in the score. Tromso – Negative. The Norwegians looked disinterested in North London – they were even worse at home with just one shot on target whilst conceding six. St Gallen – Positive. I was quite impressed with St Gallen’s stats against a full strength Swansea side and I’ll be looking to side with them against Valencia if the handicap suit

UEFA – THE MOMENTUM INDICATOR… The UEFA momentum indicator is an interesting visual representation of how a match is progressing – depicting which teams have the upper hand in a match. Just how UEFA have wired this up I’m not 100% sure, but it seems to be a mixture of possession and shooting – which to be fair

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is not a bad combination. To access this information, simply go to uefa.com, select ‘Europa League’ then select ‘matches’ followed by the particular match you are interested in. In the pop up window select ‘More Statistics’ and the ‘Momentum Indicator’ will be displayed along with all the statistics from the match

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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – OUTRIGHT WINNER

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE OUTRIGHT WINNER

NO TEAM HAS EVER WON THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BACK TO BACK, BUT I’M BACKING THIS INCREDIBLE BAYERN MUNICH SIDE TO DO IT AT 7/2…

Laszlo Szirtesi / Shutterstock.com

This is a fantastic side and it’s significant that they are already clicking despite Pep Guardiola’s methods still a long way from being properly bedded in. One thing has stayed consistent though and that’s how the personnel can swap roles throughout a game, forming an ever-changing fluid attack that is pretty much unique in world football at the moment. I have seen some new elements though, their pressing against City for example was about as good as I have ever seen it.

The final piece of the jigsaw is the quality of the Bayern Munich squad which is deep in some critical roles – take the pressing element I spoke about above, that requires the main players involved to work really hard, and the fact that Guardiola can regularly rest players like Muller will be an important factor this season

EURO HANGOVER? THE STATS SO FAR… In years gone by, the UCL has had a big impact on how teams perform in their respective league directly after their Euro exploits with some teams performing particularly badly the ‘weekend after.’ That hasn’t been the case so far this season though with only Man Utd and Dortmund letting the ‘Big 10’ down with one post UCL loss each – Atleti, Barca, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Bayern and PSG have all remained unbeaten post UCL with 16 wins and three draws between them.

Spain have fared the best with six wins out of six followed by the English contingent who have eight wins from ten matches. I’m expecting these strike rates to drop though – especially with regards the Premier League quartet

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE OUTRIGHT WINNER Oct 2013 – May 2014

TIP

Chelsea, Man City, Man United, Real Madrid, Juventus, AC Milan and to some degree Barcelona are regressing – either slightly or in Man United’s case significantly – a few teams will be looking to take advantage and it’s Bayern Munich who are at the front of the queue.

The 7/2 about Bayern Munich being the first club to retain their Champions League title looks a fair price. Only Barca has the class to trump the Germans at the moment but their strength in depth is a worry over such a long arduous season

Bayern Munich to win the Champions League

STAKE

The Barcelona side of 2010/11 were graced with the exact same two attributes that Bayern Munich have on their side this season – firstly, they are a very, very good side and secondly, they can take advantage of another European ‘changing of the guard’ that has seen further regression from some key members of the European footballing elite.

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING

£10.00

PRICE

In years gone by I have usually looked to oppose the reigning UCL champion. It’s a tough ask winning this tournament and 20 teams have failed to double up – but this season’s Champions League is different for a couple of reasons, and I fancy Bayern Munich strongly to break the sequence with a famous win at the Estadio de Luz in Lisbon on May 24th…

7/2 (Minimum 10/3) 7/2 AT THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS

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ISSUE 164 // Wednesday 09 October 2013

EUROPA LEAGUE – OUTRIGHT WINNER THE EUROPA LEAGUE OUTRIGHT MARKET CAN BE A TOUGH ONE TO CATCH RIGHT, BUT IT HAS TREATED INSIDERS WELL OVER THE YEARS AND I’LL BE BACKING SPURS TO BRING HOME THE CASH IN 2013/14…

Chelsea’s performance in the Europa last season saw them simmer until the knockout stages and thanks to a fantastic group draw, Spurs have the chance to do exactly the same – gradually turning up the gas as the competition starts to get a little tougher

EUROPA LEAGUE OUTRIGHT WINNER October 2013 – May 2014 TIP

Add to that pair the plethora of new signings that AVB desperately needs to give playing time to and the Europa League is suddenly not such of a pain anymore… In fact it’s turning out to be quite the opposite and the good news for Tottenham fans is that these second string versions have remained unbeaten so far this season with a 4-0 win over Villa in the Capital One Cup and a quartet of wins in the Europa League without conceding a goal.

The 7/1 about Spurs looks a very back-able price, especially when you consider the average Fiorentina are in at just 12/1. The big question is of course the class of the Champions League dropouts, but as things stand the big guns are looking in decent shape – with the fodder looking well below Tottenham’s level

Tottenham to win the Europa League

STAKE

EUROPA LEAGUE IS A GODSEND FOR TOTTENHAM… The Europa League will actually be a good thing for Spurs to have on their plate. Take their match against Tromso for example – it gave AVB a golden chance to stretch Sandro’s legs after the Brazilian had missed 8 months of football with a serious cruciate injury and the match continued to serve as a happy hunting ground for Jermain Defoe who would otherwise be a benchwarmer.

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING

£5.00

PRICE

I normally regard the Europa League as the sort of tournament that some clubs tank – it’s a lot of mileage when you have serious aspirations of winning your domestic title or qualifying for the Champions League. Things are a bit different this season though and I’m backing Tottenham to emulate the efforts of Chelsea in 2012/13 by taking away what is for the most part, a weak Europa League tournament.

7/1 (Minimum 13/2) 7/1 AT THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKER

GROUP WINNERS TIEBREAKER – EXPLAINED I don’t think Spurs need to worry about the group tiebreaker rules, but they might be needed elsewhere – especially with the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal looking to hold a tiebreaker edge.

If two or more teams are tied...Tiebreaker…

1) Head-to-Head points…

2) Head-to-Head goal difference…

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3) Head-to-Head goals scored…

4) Away goals between tied teams 5) If two teams still tied then reapply rules 1 to 4 to split…

6) If there is still a tie… Superior goal difference…

7) Goals Scored….

8) Higher number of UEFA co-efficient points accumulated over previous 5 seasons

InsiderBet.co.uk

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – GOLDEN BOOT & NAME THE FINALISTS

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GOLDEN BOOT

NAME THE FINALISTS

TWO PLAYERS HAVE DOMINATED THIS MARKET OVER THE YEARS – LIONEL MESSI & CRISTIANO RONALDO – WITH SIX CONSECUTIVE WINS BETWEEN THEM…

IT WAS A HARD TO CALL ALL-GERMAN FINAL LAST SEASON – IN 2013/14 TWO TEAMS STAND OUT TO ME AND LOOK WORTH A SMALL WAGER…

LIONEL MESSI A FABULOUS 3/1 SHOT…

THE DREAM FINAL – BAYERN v BARCA @ 15/2…

For six seasons now, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have dominated the Champions League Top Goalscorer market. Messi has four UCL Golden Boots in his cabinet with Ronaldo winning the other two. Since the 2007/8 season Ronaldo has scored 47 goals with Messi netting 57 goals – an incredible haul from the two best strikers in Europe.

There isn’t a neutral fan in the world that wouldn’t want to see Bayern and Barcelona square off against each other on May 24th – and the good news is that this pair are statistically on another level to most of the other teams in the 2013/14 UCL. This is a tough bet to get up as we are relying on a kind draw at the crunch stage, but if we get that bit of luck, then this is the final combination that you would want to be on.

After two matches of the 2013/14 tournament, both players are already exceeding their tournament average – indeed, they are both on track to smash their previous bests with Ronaldo already netting five goals and Messi a hat trick in his only game played.

Going into Matchday 3 Real Madrid’s number 7 is the market leader at a best price of 11/10 – a quote which accurately reflects not only his 2 goal lead over the field, but also the fact that Real have a couple of goal rich matches left in the group stage – namely Gala and Kobenhavn. That said, you have to question their scoring incentive in those last two matchers given they will probably have already secured the group winner berth.

We’ve already covered the chances of Bayern Munich and quite simply, they look different class to all comers at the moment. Their strength in depth is key if they are going to continue to high-press and there’s no team to touch them if they can continue to improve under Pep. Barcelona are the one side that can mix it with Bayern. I like the way new boss Gerardo Martino has started in the position and – as is the case with Bayern – the longer the new boss is in the job, the better Barca will get and with a nice draw they can make the final once again.

Odds of 15/2 or 7/1 are worth a small bet. These are the clear best two teams in Europe at the moment and judging by the way they have started their respective leagues, they might both be in the position to rotate during the business end of the 2013/14 UCL

Barca and Messi are in a similar position to Real with matches against Celtic and Ajax still to come – and with the Argentine hit man expected back from injury in time to face AC Milan on October 22nd, there’s no reason why he can’t get on a par with Ronaldo between now and the start of the knockout stage.

October 2013 – May 2014

TIP

Lionel Messi to be Top Goalscorer

STAKE

TOP GOALSCORER £3.00

PRICE

3/1 or 11/4 Messi looks a big price. As we’ve seen in the La Liga this season, the Argentine has been in super scoring form and I’m expecting him to excel in Gerardo Martino’s 4-3-3

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

3/1 (Minimum 11/4)

RONALDO v MESSI… TIP

Bayern Munich & Barcelona

STAKE

NAME THE FINALISTS £1.00

PRICE

Since 2007/8 Ronaldo and Messi have dominated the stats tables but who is in front in the all-important ‘goals per 90 minutes’ stat? Well, so far, Ronaldo had played 5671 minutes in that period with 47 goals scored so that’s 0.745 goals per 90. Lionel Messi on the other hand has played 5684 minutes with 57 goals – which is 0.9026 goals per 90 minutes

3/1 AT

15/2 (Minimum 7/1) 15/2 AT

[7]

ISSUE 164 // Wednesday 09 October 2013

BET SUMMARIES

THE BACKPAGE Here is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Five bets on the Champions League and three bets on the Europa League. Including Outright Winner picks for both competitions.

In your next issue of The Insider magazine we’ll be heading Down Under – with a complete preview and bets for this winter’s Ashes Series in Australia. The issue will be on your doormat and available online on Wednesday 20th November.

A WORD ABOUT YOUR STAKING ADVICE...

All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet).

Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.

Mr X. OUTRIGHT WINNER

TOP GOALSCORER

NAME THE FINALISTS

October 2013 – May 2014

October 2013 – May 2014

October 2013 – May 2014

TIP

Bayern Munich to win the Champions League

TIP

Lionel Messi to be Top Goalscorer

TIP

Bayern Munich & Barcelona

STAKE

£10.00

STAKE

£3.00

STAKE

£1.00

PRICE

7/2 (Minimum 10/3)

PRICE

3/1 (Minimum 11/4)

PRICE

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

15/2 (Minimum 7/1)

3/1 AT

GROUP E WINNERS

GROUP F WINNERS

October – December 2013

October – December 2013

TIP

Chelsea to win Group E

TIP

Arsenal to win Group F

STAKE

£10.00

STAKE

£10.00

7/10

PRICE

15/2 AT

PRICE

7/2 AT

5/6

7/1 AT

5/6 AT

OUTRIGHT WINNER

GROUP B WINNER

GROUP C – TO QUALIFY

October 2013 – May 2014

October – December 2013

October – December 2013

TIP

Tottenham to win the Europa League

TIP

Ludogorets to win Europa League Group B

TIP

Esbjerg fB ‘To Qualify’ Europa League Group C

STAKE

£5.00

STAKE

£10.00

STAKE

£3.00

PRICE

7/1 (Minimum 13/2)

PRICE

6/5 (Minimum 11/10)

PRICE

EUROPA LEAGUE

11/10 (Minimum Evens)

7/1 AT

6/5 AT

6/5 AT

©Copyright 2013 Oxfordshire Press Ltd. Managing Editors: Oliver Upstone, Shaun Humphris.

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