The Insider - Premier League Special - August 2013

THE

ISSUE 162 WEDNESDAY 7 AUGUST 2013

InsiderBet.co.uk

PREMIER LEAGUE ISSUE

PLACE YOUR BETS BEFORE KICK OFF! I have to say, I’m pleasantly surprised at some of the Premier League prices on offer this season. And I’ve left no stone unturned in my analysis – we’re talking tactics, signings, stats and a bit of good old fashioned bookmaking stuff thrown in, too.

Starting with my strongest ante post wager of the 2013/14 season so far...

OUTRIGHT WINNER The biggest contests don’t always generate the best wagers but as far as the 2013/14 Premier League season is concerned, Man City look a very good bet to win back their title and I’ll happily take odds of 23/10 about the Citizens coming out on top of a 38 game season…

The Man City squad is looking in terrific shape and from a coaching perspective, Manuel Pellegrini – the man they call the engineer – couldn’t have timed his run any better. This is the perfect time to be taking over at the helm of the Sky Blues and to see the Chilean get off to a flyer isn’t one bit surprising.

INSIDE THIS ISSUE...

THE PREMIER LEAGUE Outright Winner.

SEE PAGES 1 & 2

THE PREMIER LEAGUE Season Handicap.

SEE PAGE 3

THE PREMIER LEAGUE Relegation.

SEE PAGE 4

THE PREMIER LEAGUE Head to Head Leagues – The Lowdown SEE PAGE 5

SPAIN – LA LIGA Outright Winner Without the Big Two. SEE PAGE 6

PORTUGAL – LIGA SAGRES Outright Winner.

SEE PAGE 7

THE BACKPAGE All the bets in this issue – at-a-glance.

SEE PAGE 8

While his Premier League rivals continue to tread water in the transfer market, Pellegrini has sanctioned £90million in transfer business since he was chosen to succeed Roberto Mancini – and more importantly, he

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ISSUE 162 // Wednesday 7 August 2013

I called this group a squad cancer recently, and I’ll stick by that – Mancini simply didn’t have the skills to manage these prima donnas and the fact that Pellegrini will not have to put up with the likes of Tevez and Balotelli wrecking the morale down at the City of Manchester Stadium cannot be underestimated.

And the speed with which Pellegrini has acted has been impressive…

A SMART START...

The Chilean was straight in with four superb signings – namely Fernandinho, Jesus Navas, Alvaro Negredo and Stevan Jovetic – therefore addressing a couple of Man City’s weaknesses…

And who can doubt how hard this guy is going to work to reclaim the Premier League title back. To give you an idea of the kind of commitment that will be coming from Pellegrini we only need consider how he dealt with the death of his mother a couple of weeks ago. Just 24 hours after the funeral, he was back in charge of City for a ‘meaningless’ friendly

PREMIER LEAGUE OUTRIGHT WINNER

TIP

Man City to win the Premier League

STAKE

£15.00

PRICE

17th Aug 2013 – 11th May 2014

23/10 – 9/4 (minimum) 23/10 AT

9/4 AT

[2]

against South China.

Al Nahyan made a decent appointment in Mancini, and the fact that he gave him a decent run should be applauded, but make no mistake, the best signing City have made this summer is Pellegrini himself and with a squad of this standard, I fully expect them to dominate their Premier League peers this season…

“

Make no mistake, the best signing City have made this summer is Pellegrini himself. And with a squad of this standard, I fully expect them to dominate this season…

“

And the fact that “he has not finished spending yet” will probably mean an even better defence than the one that conceded just 34 goals last season.

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

Man City will smash their goal total of 66 last season – I just wish I could bet on that.

Pellegrini’s tactics have been the same for years and they will suit a team like City and their deep squad. He likes to play with two up front and has bought accordingly – he might go 4-5-1 against the likes of Chelsea or maybe Man Utd, but for the most part he’ll be looking to set up with two central attackers.

A bet on Man City is all about whether or not Pellegrini can hit the ground running and given his prowess as a top class coach, I’m more than happy to bet on that – and at odds of 23/10, I’ll be having a decent bet

The problem last term was finishing off all of their creative work with a goal – they finished a massive 20 goals short of eventual champions Man Utd, but if anything, I fancy the ‘goal difference’ this season to be the other way around.

Aguero and Dzeko are already proven Premier League performers but the signings of Negredo and Jovetic not only gives them a better depth, it also allows Pellegrini a series of valuable strike options when the situation dictates.

Negredo brings a more direct approach to the game and was an absolute bargain and Jovetic brings tremendous versatility – a player that can take the role of main striker, in the hole, or out wide on the right or left side of the pitch

Photo Works / Shutterstock.com

has culled a group of players that were leeching cash and a whole heap of impetus.

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FOOTBALL – Premier League 2013/14

SEASON HANDICAP The bookmakers have priced with up a range of handicapping tactics for the 2013/14 season.

Bwin, Skybet and Hills are on the high side with their capping tactics too – not quite the mammoth number on offer with Bet Victor, but 597, 583 and 584 points respectively can, for the most part, be beaten with the remaining prices on offer in the village.

That’s not to say that I disagree with these high handicap totals – on the contrary actually. The Bet Victor prices are just an outlier that are solely intended to get your average punter to take their offer simply because it’s the highest but as far as my handicaps are concerned, I am nearer 600 points than 570.

The Coral handicaps are about as passive as I’ve seen and because of this, they will be getting my business this season – with Ladbrokes (565 total points), Boylesports (564 points) and Bet365 (567 points) next on the list.

As far as my selections for the 2013/14 season are concerned, I’m going to side with a couple of clubs against the field – Arsenal and Man City – both of whom are available at 16/1 with Coral…

MAN CITY ‘SCRATCH’ (0 PTS) HANDICAP My figures have Man City as the handicap favourites with an 85 point haul for the season. Obviously my overall view on Pelligrini’s appointment is governing this opinion, but with the class divide widening in the Premier League, I feel at least one of the big four are going to have a solid season, and for my money, Man City are the leading candidate.

Due to Coral’s array of low handicaps, I have City as the winner on their coupon.

As far as their midfield is concerned, the Gunners have what is potentially one of the best combinations in the Premier League.

After being a stalwart 4-4-2 merchant for so long, Wenger now favours a 4-5-1 – and given how some of his key squad members performed in the passing department last season, I’m expecting to see a lot more of this shape in 2013/14.

The problem for Arsenal is the ‘one’ of the 4-5-1 formation.

Last season, the Gunners failed to get one of their dedicated forwards in the Premier League’s Top 10 scorers table and that’s what ultimately cost them a higher place on the ladder.

It wasn’t a complete fail up front though with their 72 goals scored falling just three short of Chelsea’s goal tally for the season and the fact that their 2012/13 squad was a work in progress suggests that there is a fair bit of improvement still to come. Offers of Arsenal +8 points with Coral is good enough for me

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

I think City will push their peers hard this season, but given the modest nature of the handicapping structure with Coral, Arsenal +8 has to be included in any handicap portfolio, too

“

The Coral handicaps will be getting my business this season...

”

SEASON HANDICAP

TIP

Man City ‘scratch’ (0 pts) Handicap

STAKE

17th Aug 2013 – 11th May 2014

£2.50 Each Way*

PRICE

In defence, Arsenal were the second best performer in the Premier League last season with only 37 goals conceded in 38 matches.

They finished off 2013 really well, too – with only one of their last 17 matches seeing their defence breached more than once.

THE PREMIER LEAGUE

16/1 (minimum) 16/1 at

Also available: Man City +1 pt Handicap 15/1 at

TIP

THE BEST BETS IN THE VILLAGE...

Only one team are getting close to City when the bookmakers handicaps have been added to my totals and that’s Arsenal – I admit there is still plenty up in the air with regards the Gunners this season, however the fact remains, they performed well in a lot of departments last term and with just a few improvements, I’m expecting them to get close to 80 points in 2013/14.

Arsenal (8 pts) Handicap

STAKE

Unless you are getting a bargain, I would steer clear of Bet Victor for your handicap betting his season – especially prospective backers of Man United, Man City or Chelsea.

Even if Bet Victor are top handicap your team, they are also top handicap about a whole host of other teams as well so the chances of getting trumped are significant.

ARSENAL +8 PTS HANDICAP

£2.50 Each Way*

PRICE

Coral are in the passive corner with a wide range of low handicaps for the 20 Premeir League teams – the result is a handicap spread totalling just 555 points. Bet Victor are at the other end of the spectrum with a range of high handicaps on offer – totalling a massive 627 points.

16/1 (minimum) 16/1 at

Also available: Arsenal +10 pt Handicap 15/1 at

*Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 places

WHAT IS A ‘SEASON HANDICAP’?

I’ll regularly update our handicap positions in your weekly Insider emails, but I thought it would be good practise to explain just how handicap betting works...

To find out how the handicap table is looking you simply have to add the respective handicaps (of the bookmaker you bet with) to the actual points total for each team.

So for example – if Arsenal had amassed 24 points, their handicap total with Coral would be 32 points (24 points + 8 points handicap). Repeat that process for the remaining 19 teams and you will have your updated handicap table for the Premier League.

The end of season winner is the team with the biggest points total.

Excel is great for this kind of calculation.

I’ve already set up my Excel handicap checkers for 2013/14 – I’ll share them via a link a little later in the season when we have a few points in the tank

[3]

ISSUE 162 // Wednesday 7 August 2013

RELEGATION The best negative bets are often snagged after a period of observation. Last year we smashed ‘downside wagers’ into both Sunderland and Reading after getting a bit of form into the book, and both comfortably weighed in.

Stoke finished the season in a really poor way with just three wins in 2013 – against QPR, Reading and Norwich.

A win is a win, but two of those clubs were totally outclassed last term and Stoke’s end of season win against Norwich (the joint worst away side in the Premier League last term) was basically a present that Stoke struggled to win 1-0.

Statistically speaking, the Potters had an awful time of it in 2012/13…

They were the worst shooter (just 389 total shots for the season – five behind Reading) of which only 114 of those shots were on target. They also had the fourth lowest level of possession (an average of just 43.2% which for a negative side is not a good sign), a pass success of just 70.2% and the clear worst disciplinary record (78 yellows and 4 reds).

The way Pulis sets up, Stoke were never going to hit any statistical heights, but there are limits to just how much you can get away with in the Premier League, and last season Stoke pushed it to the max.

THE WRONG MAN FOR THE JOB

And no change from a unit that scored just 34 goals last season (only bottom club QPR scored lower) must be a worry for the club and their fans.

But it’s the fact that Stoke have played such a negative brand of football for so long that is sounding the death knell here – Hughes is at the other end of the coaching spectrum to Pulis and trying to get Stoke to “play a more attacking brand of football” will take a long time to bed in – and I simply don’t think they’ll have that luxury

PREMIER LEAGUE RELEGATION 17th Aug 2013 – 11th May 2014 TIP

Last season was a massive struggle for the Potters and their performance towards the end of the season was so bad that it cost Tony Pulis his job.

Since Sparky took over at the helm of Stoke City the Potters have made little headway on the squad front.

They’ve signed a couple of defenders – Erik Pieters and Marc Muniesa – but as far as their attacking personnel goes, there has been no change.

Stoke to be Relegated

STAKE

POTTERS ON THE SLIDE

the defensive Pulis the door at the end of May – good decision I would say – but to then appoint Mark Hughes as the manager was, I think, a step too far in the other direction.

£3.00

PRICE

This season I’ll be looking to repeat that tactic, with some strong midseason negative wagers in the Bottom Half/ Relegation markets. But there’s a bit of value I’d like to take before a ball is kicked, and that’s the 10/3 about Stoke dropping down a division...

10/3 – 3/1 (minimum) 10/3 AT THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS

The owners of Stoke smelt the coffee and showed

[4]

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FOOTBALL – Premier League 2013/14

MARK YOUR CARD – HEAD TO HEAD LEAGUES… I’ve spoken to Betfair a couple of times about their insistence on betting a selection of markets under the headline – ‘Head to Head’ leagues.

The creator of this terminology simply doesn’t understand the ‘set in stone’ nature of markets like Top London Club and Top Northwest Club and trying to reinvent the wheel will continue to force punters into making costly betting mistakes...

In a nutshell, the ‘Top London Club’ market on Betfair (together with the Top Midlands Club, Top Northwest Club and Top Northeast Club markets) are NOT the same as those offered by the fixed odds firms. The one big difference is that the Betfair versions of these markets ONLY include games played between the respective teams – compared with the traditional market versions that are settled on table positions.

DON’T MAKE THIS COSTLY MISTAKE

The season before last, a colleague of mine staked over £3k between the Top London club market on Betfair and the High Street – thinking it was the same market.

Luckily for him, his mistake was pointed out in time so he could do something about it – he still lost money, but only a fraction of the loss he had exposed himself too.

And to make matters worse, these markets have been appearing side by side on the odds comparison websites like BestBetting.com and Oddschecker.com – even though they are totally separate betting entities.

I dropped both a line about the situation last week and whilst BestBetting.com removed Betfair from the table straightaway, Oddschecker.com have yet to reply and at the time of writing, still have Betfair’s prices in the table.

As a rule, always check the market descriptions before having a bet, especially on Betfair, as they can be slightly out of sync with the bookies – which can make all the difference come settling time

PREMIER LEAGUE – PORTFOLIO See ‘The Backpage’ for a full summary of the tips in this issue. There are four Premier League bets going in the book. And we’ve also placed a handful of Premier League 2013/14 bets over the last month...

Already in the book: TOP GOALSCORER

SEASON MATCH BET

• £5.00 Each Way* – Sergio Aguero @ 8/1

• £10.00 – Chelsea to beat Man Utd @ Evens

• £1.00 Each Way* – Edin Dzeko @ 25/1

PREMIER LEAGUE ‘GROUP D’ AT CORAL

* Each Way terms: 1/4th odds for 1,2,3,4 places.

• £3.00 – Norwich to win Group D @ 13/5 (‘Group D’ = Norwich, Hull, Crystal Palace, Cardiff, Stoke.)

THE COUNTDOWN TO KICK OFF...

If you haven’t got those bets on yet – then get your money down ASAP...

Kick off is Saturday, 17th August. We may well be striking some more preseason Premier League bets – I have my eye on a couple of bookies’ Specials markets right now. And we’ll certainly be placing plenty of weekly match bets throughout the season.

Look out for your Insider email updates from me every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. And remember, you also view every email, and every issue of The Insider magazine, on your website: www.InsiderBet.co.uk

[5]

ISSUE 162 // Wednesday 7 August 2013

BEST OF THE REST – Spain, La Liga – ‘Without the Big Two’

SPAIN – LA LIGA ‘WITHOUT THE BIG TWO’

We successfully backed Atletico Madrid last season in the La Liga ‘Without Real and Barcelona’ market, and with 13/8 on the boards, I’ll be backing the Rojiblancos again this season.

I was quite surprised to see the difference in pricing between the firms – the likes of William Hill and Ladbrokes (the two biggest firms in the UK supposedly) are both siding with Atleti, whilst the likes of Totesport, BetFred and Skybet make the market a more open affair, keeping the likes of Valencia and Sevilla onside.

I’m totally with Hills and Ladbrokes – I wouldn’t be quite as short as 10/11 but I certainly wouldn’t have them in 70 spots bigger…

FALCAO OUT, VILLA IN...

Losing Radamel Falcao is certainly a blow for Atleti, but replacing him with a classy player like Barca’s David Villa is good business and I’m not expecting much of a shortfall across the two playing staff.

Last season Villa only got 17 starts for Barca, however he still managed to score 10 goals in that period, as well as completing 5 assists and maintaining an accurate pass completion rate of 83%.

That’s 0.58 goals a game and 0.28 assists per game – compared to Falcao’s checkout of 0.82 goals scored per game and 0.02 Assists per game.

The big difference here is that Villa, for the most part, played a cameo role on the pitch for Barca whereas for Atleti, he’ll return to the kind of position that saw him score just short of 50 goals in just two seasons for Valencia.

club like this and for my money, their fourth place finish last term (which featured a massive 12 draws) was a little flattering. Even at 12/1 Sociedad make no appeal.

As for Sevilla, well, losing two players such as Jesus Navas and Alvaro Negredo is going to hurt them significantly not to mention the loss of Luis Alberto Romero – even with those players in the team they struggled to a ninth place finish last term. 14/1 is the right price.

Barring a shocker, the only other dangers I can see to Atleti this coming season would have to be 20/1 shots Malaga and Athletic Bilbao. With respect to Malaga’s chances, I just don’t see their squad as being good enough to maintain a serious tilt at third place for the entire season and much the same can be said about Bilbao who struggled last season to back up what was a superb 2011/12

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

Its Atleti again for me – I thought they played well to beat Nacional 2-0 at the start of August and are warming up nicely for the new season

SPAIN – LA LIGA WITHOUT THE BIG TWO

THE OPPOSITION DON’T APPEAL – EVEN AT 20/1

Sociedad are an improving side, but backing up a good season with a better one is hard to do for a

[6]

TIP STAKE

Atletico Madrid to win ‘Without the Big Two’ £5.00

PRICE

Talking of Valencia, they are viewed as the big threat to Atleti next season, but they will have to cope without Tottenham Hotspur bound Roberto Soldado – a player that scored 24 goals for Valencia last season and is yet to be suitably replaced. Genuine second favourites, but 7/2 isn’t big enough.

17th Aug 2013 – 18th May 2014

13/8 – 11/8 (minimum) 13/8 AT

6/4 AT

11/8 AT

InsiderBet.co.uk

BEST OF THE REST – Portugal, Liga Sagres

PORTUGAL – LIGA SAGRES ‘OUTRIGHT WINNER’

Last year’s Liga Sagres title winners, Porto, start off the 2013/14 Portuguese season as the underdog, but after watching them beat Napoli in the Emirates Cup, I saw enough to convince me that they are a worthy Liga Sagres favourite over Benfica for this coming season...

A SMART APPOINTMENT Despite being on Porto’s books as a central defender for over three years, new Porto coach Paulo Fonseca never got to play for the Dragons – but fifteen years after he left the club as a player, he’s back as their head coach, and for my money, he’s the perfect replacement for last season’s title winner Vitor Pereira.

Fonseca’s first professional managerial position was with Portuguese second division outfit Aves in 2011 and despite working with what was for the most part a poor squad, he still managed a third placed finish. He caught the eye of a few clubs in that time and ended up being snatched away by FC Pacos de Ferreira in the summer of 2012 who Fonseca went on to lead to a Champions League place in his very first season.

With that achievement on the board, Pacos Ferreira were never going to stand a chance of keeping hold of Fonseca for long and it ended up being his boyhood club that stepped in for his signature – for my money this is one of the best managerial moves Porto have made in the past decade and one that I’m expecting to produce an excellent thirty league game performance in 2013/14.

coming season, but what he lacks in height he makes up for with skill. He’s one of the best passers of the ball I’ve seen for years, his dribbling is superb and he has an ever growing C.V. of stunning goals from set pieces.

I’m not going to call him a poor man’s Lionel Messi because he’s worth more respect than that – but you get what I mean.

Previous manager Vitor Pereira didn’t have the pleasure of selecting Juan Quintero last season, but on his way out the door he chose to heap praise on the likes of the experienced Lucho Gonzalez, Nicolas Otamendi, Eliaquim Mangala and Jackson Martinez as key members of the squad – and the good news for Porto is that they are all still with the club

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

This will no doubt come down to a head to head between Porto and Benfica and I have the Dragons in slightly shorter than an 11/10 shot

PORTUGAL – LIGA SAGRES

I’ve only watched him play once, but that was enough to convince me that this kid was the bargain of the summer. At just 5’7” he’ll be one of the smallest players in the Portuguese Liga Sagres this

TIP

The Porto squad is classy, but one player shines out from the squad list and that’s Juan Quintero – a player Porto signed from Pescara for just €5 million on July 1st.

Porto to win the Liga Sagres

STAKE

OUTRIGHT WINNER 18th Aug 2013 – 11th May 2014

£5.00

PRICE

JUAN’S THE MAN

11/10 (minimum) 11/10 AT THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS

[7]

ISSUE 162 // Wednesday 7 August 2013

BET SUMMARIES

THE BACKPAGE Here is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Four Premier League bets, plus two standout prices in the Spanish and Portuguese leagues. I’ll be adding to our preseason ‘book’ via my weekly emails.

In your next issue of The Insider magazine I’ll be focusing on American Football – with a full preview of the new NFL season.

Including bets on the Super Bowl, Conference and Division winners – plus Team and Player Specials. The NFL issue will be on your doormats and available online on Wednesday 4th September.

A word about your staking advice...

All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet).

Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.

PREMIER LEAGUE: WINNER

PREMIER LEAGUE: RELEGATION

TIP

Man City to win the Premier League

TIP

Stoke to be Relegated

STAKE

£15.00

STAKE

£3.00

PRICE

23/10 – 9/4 (minimum)

PRICE

Mr X.

10/3 – 3/1 (minimum)

23/10 AT

10/3 AT

9/4 AT

TIP

Man City ‘scratch’ (0 pts) Handicap

TIP

Arsenal (8 pts) Handicap

STAKE

£2.50 Each Way*

STAKE

£2.50 Each Way*

PRICE

16/1 (minimum)

PRICE

PREMIER LEAGUE FOOTBALL: SEASON HANDICAP

16/1 (minimum)

16/1 AT

Also available: Man City +1 pt Handicap 15/1 at

16/1 AT

Also available: Arsenal +10 pt Handicap 15/1 at

SPAIN – LA LIGA – WITHOUT THE BIG TWO

PORTUGAL – LIGA SAGRES – WINNER

TIP

Atletico Madrid to win ‘Without the Big Two’

TIP

Porto to win the Liga Sagres

STAKE

£5.00

STAKE

£5.00

PRICE

13/8 – 11/8 (minimum)

PRICE

*Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places

11/10 (minimum)

13/8 AT

6/4 AT

11/8 AT

11/10 AT THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS

©Copyright 2013 Oxfordshire Press Ltd. Managing Editors: Oliver Upstone, Shaun Humphris.

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