The Insider - July Issue 2013 - Ashes Special

THE

ISSUE 161 MONDAY 8 JULY 2013

InsiderBet.co.uk

ISSUE

HIT THE BOOKIES FOR 6...

THEN 10... THEN 12/1 THIS SUMMER! The 2013 Ashes Series betting is desperately one-sided and it’s hard to disagree with the bookmaker’s prices. 4/9 England at the very best might make some appeal for the money buyers out there, but for my cash, it’s right on the line.

The side markets are always tough calls, but for this month’s ‘Ashes Special’ I’ve found a selection of wagers that will give us a run for our money over the course of the five test series.

Let’s start with the Top England Batsman market…

INSIDE THIS ISSUE...

THE ASHES Top England Batsman.

SEE PAGES 1 & 2

THE ASHES Top Australia Batsman.

SEE PAGE 3

THE ASHES Top England Bowler.

SEE PAGE 4

THE ASHES Correct Ashes Series Scores.

SEE PAGE 4

TOP ENGLAND BATSMAN…

FOOTBALL

The Top England Batsman market is shaping up to be a cracker. Here’s the form of the leading candidates together with why I fancy Joe Root to be competitive at 5/1…

RUGBY LEAGUE

Let’s kick off with our captain, Alastair Cook, whose form in home conditions has been simply superb with his last 15 UK test figures reading 164, 53, 10, 70, 115, 4, 67, 105, 34, 294, 7, 13, 55 and 202 – great numbers, with the potential of a big ton making all the difference over a five test series.

Against the Australians in the UK, Cook put in an average performance back in 2009 with run totals of 16 127, 0, 60 and 19 in the five tests, but Down Under in 2010/11 Cook destroyed the Australians with 302, 148, 45, 82, and 189

Premier League Top Scorer.

SEE PAGES 5 & 6

Insider Trading - making the most of your Insider Bets.

SEE PAGE 7

THE BACKPAGE All the bets in this issue – at-a-glance.

SEE PAGE 8

FOLLOW ALL YOUR BETS AT INSIDERBET.CO.UK

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ISSUE 161 // Monday 8 July 2013

Joe Root has only six tests to his name, but what a start he has made to his career with a 93 on test debut and run scores of 111 and 132 in his opening two tests in the UK. Moving up the order to open with Cook is a big decision from the selectors, with Root being blooded against Essex, but there’s no doubting this kids nerves, as we saw in the series against New Zealand.

Ian Bell has recorded some super knocks against Australia, my only concern is that he could struggle to

[2]

“

Joe Root has only six tests to his name, but what a start he has made to his career with a 93 on test debut and run scores of 111 and 132 in his opening two tests in the UK.

“

THE ASHES

TOP ENGLAND BATSMAN 10th July – 25th August TIP

On his return from injury, Kevin Pietersen has it all to do, but his form in the UK is very solid with his last 15 test form line reading 161, 58, 78, 80, 45, 175, 63, 92, 203, 85, 74, 3, 0, 29 and 80. If KP hits the track running, he would be my market favourite.

Joe Root to be top England batsman

STAKE

One of the main dangers to Cook would have to be Jonathan Trott whose form figures of 104, 95, 71, 65, 81, 17, 52, 71, 6, 92, 4, 60, 203, 184 and 48 are pretty impressive. The consistency of his scoring is significant in a market like this – but I have to worry about the lack of tons.

get the innings. Last time out against Australia he only batted six of the ten possible innings but he still managed to score 76, 68, 69, 1 and 115. I’m expecting Bell to bat at 5 though rather than 6 but he could well fall short again on the innings front

£2.50

PRICE

scored in the five tests.

5/1 (minimum)

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

Australia’s performance with the willow will have a big impact on the Top England batsman market and if the Root & Cook partnership hits it off, then it is quite possible that their edge in the run scoring markets could be significant. For that reason, I’m going to take a chance on Joe Root at a big price.

The big question is whether he can handle the pressure of opening in the Ashes, but having Cook there to support is no bad thing. After being assaulted by Warner I’m not expecting the sledging dial to be turned up as high as it could have been and in any case, the lad is obviously made of stronger stuff than his age and appearance would suggest.

The 5/1 offered up is a decent offer

5/1 AT THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS

InsiderBet.co.uk

THE ASHES

TOP AUSTRALIA BATSMAN… The Australian batting line-up for the 2013 Ashes Series is about the worst I’ve seen for many years. As long-time Insider subscribers will know, I’m a big fan of Michael Hussey and although his participation is still up in the air, as things currently stand, he will not be playing.

Huss was the reason I piled into the 5-0 quotes back in 2007 and I still respect his ability to win a test match. Quite simply, he is Australia’s best test bat.

average of just over 35 is a worry as too is his history of injury. The big occasion brings out the best in the Queenslander though and he’ll be a major factor with the bat I’m sure.

I’m also a Shane Watson admirer and I totally agree with the views of Michael Hussey and newly appointed coach Darren Lehmann about punting him up the order. He’ll open up against Somerset in Taunton and I fully expect to see Watto opening up for the Aussies at Trent Bridge too.

After David Warner was suspended by Cricket Australia for the entire warm up schedule, the question mark is whether or not Warner gets picked to start the Ashes Series. The 26-year-old has a bit of experience in the conditions and a tidy 39.46 average to build on – but will he get the full five tests, the rumour is he will.

Nothing is ever set in stone, but with Lehmann having just days to prepare for the first test, there’s no time for experimentation. Therefore I’m expecting Ed Cowan to open with Watson and maybe Phil Hughes coming in at three.

Even at 8/1, Phillip Hughes makes little appeal. An average of 33 isn’t great and Ladbrokes are spot on with their 8/1 – the top industry price. His slashing will be found out in these conditions.

This isn’t a strong batting line-up and given the mediocre nature of most of the form I could see Warner maintaining a position high up the runs table with a couple of big scores in the pipe.

Brad Haddin consistently comes up with the goods under pressure and no doubt he’ll contribute with a late stand somewhere along the line with a big ton.

There are definitely worse 14/1 shots about.

Being able to handle the constant barracking is of course the big ask here, but if anything, it will keep the easily distracted Warner focussed.

Clarke will no doubt want to bat at five with potentially Rogers at four leaving the likes of Warner to bat down the order.

As far as the Australia Top Batsman is concerned, it’s a win only market so there’s not much room for us to manoeuvre but as things stand here are my views surrounding the main runners…

The worthy favourite is Michael Clarke, but his continued back problems make offers of 5/2 a touch on the skinny side. Batting at five will guarantee runs for Pup, but his price is no value.

It just hasn’t happened for Usman Khawaja a test average of just under 30 from his 11 innings. He needs a nice big test winning ton to give him something to feed off and as yet, it just hasn’t happened for him. 18 months without a test appearance but the advantage of that is that his confidence hasn’t been knocked around

11/2 looks about the right price about Chris Rogers. A player lacking in test experience, but given his wealth of games for Middlesex, his experience of the conditions is pretty significant.

5/1 about Shane Watson who is likely to open – is a fair price, but his Test

There looks to be one place up for grabs – between Hughes and Khawaja – apart from that the rest of the batting line-up looks set. As far as the order goes, the rumour is that Warner will be shuffled down to 6 which would protect him from the early overs.

With that in mind, Warner looks a bit of value here. He was described as a ‘rocks and diamonds’ kind of batsman, and I wouldn’t disagree with that at all.

For my main bet, I’m taking some of the 5/1 about Watson. I like him as a batsman in the big event and it doesn’t get any bigger than this. The problem with Watson is that he has the concentration span of a five-yearold, but there are times when he uses the Ricky Ponting technique ball-byball, and the Ashes will be one of those occasions

THE ASHES TOP AUSTRALIA BATSMAN TIP

Shane Watson to be top Australia batsman

TIP

David Warner to be top Australia batsman

STAKE

£2.50

STAKE

£1.00

5/1 (minimum)

PRICE

10th July – 25th August

PRICE

An average of 32.9 for Ed Cowan isn’t much to write home about and if he opens with Watson it will be a real make or break series for his career.

Cowan has plenty of experience of the conditions but I fancy him to find one too good. 6/1 is about the right price.

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

9/1 - 7/1 (minimum)

5/1 at the following Bookmakers

9/1 at

8/1 at

7/1 at

sportingbet sporting bet

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ISSUE 161 // Monday 8 July 2013

THE ASHES

TOP ENGLAND BOWLER…

ASHES SERIES CORRECT SCORE…

And finally a bet in the Top England Bowler market, and Graeme Swann could be a bit of value at 3/1…

This month’s ‘Big Price’ selection is another Ashes bet, this time in the Correct Score market where I fancy a trio of scores for small stakes…

The weather could swing things in Graeme Swann’s favour here and given the way the Australians struggle against spin, if the English summer produces five ‘dust bowls’ then Swanny could be in for a very good time of it.

The Stuart Broad injury is a concern. He looked in great form against the Kiwi’s and he finished as the Top English bowler thanks to a twelve wicket haul, but a shoulder injury on the eve of the Ashes is not exactly what his fans will want to be hearing.

James Anderson is always the favourite for the Top England Bowler market, but I can see why Ladbrokes are looking to oppose him by laying top price of 2/1. He looked a touch blunt against the New Zealanders but this is the Ashes and Anderson will be fired up to produce another super series winning performance

This bet is all about the first test. If the English get off to a flyer, they really will have the chance to put their foot down and crush the Aussies. It’s really hard to land a 5-0 as you need a fair bit of disaster in the background (as was the situation back in 2006/7) but whilst the situation is bad in the Baggy Green dressing room, I don’t think it’s that bad.

The 4-1 scoreline looks a big price at 12/1…

Lehmann’s attacking play should put the Aussies in with a chance of a win along the way but it will also allow the English to attack and take advantage of what at the moment looks a side struggling for confidence

THE ASHES CORRECT SCORE TIP

England to win 4-0

STAKE

10th July – 25th August

There has been a bit of money for Monty Panesar and this has much to do with the knock Swann suffered against Essex.

16/1 is probably a bit on the big side, but he’ll struggle to play five tests and would only be guaranteed to take to the field if Swann was injured.

£1.00

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING

PRICE

Tim Bresnan has been backed with a few firms and is as short as 6/1 whilst 12/1 is available in places. In the 2010/11 Ashes series in Australia, Brez only played in a couple of tests, but he done well enough with eleven wickets in total. In the last eight tests that he has played for England his bowling figures reads 2, 1, 8, 3, 1, 1, 0, 0 and that form doesn’t encourage a wager.

The weather will have its say no doubt but I like the look of the 4-0, 3-1 and 4-1 score lines for a small wager at 10/1, 6/1 and 12/1 respectively.

10/1 – 9/1 (minimum)

TIP

9/1 at the following Bookmakers

England to win 3-1

STAKE

THE ASHES

10/1 at

£1.00

PRICE

I want to be with Graeme Swann here at 3/1 or bigger.

There’s a chance he’ll get the weather that could produce at least three spin conducive strips and coupled with the Australians poor performances in the face of a spin attack, he can be expected to get plenty of the ball. His 10 wicket haul against the Kiwis in the second test saw ‘Chin’ bowl really well and if the sun keeps shining he’ll make plenty of hay

6/1 (minimum) 6/1 at the following Bookmakers

TOP ENGLAND BOWLER TIP

STAKE

£5.00

STAKE

£1.00

3/1 (minimum)

PRICE

12/1 (minimum)

TIP

England to win 4-1

PRICE

10th July – 25th August

Graeme Swann to be top England bowler

3/1 at the following Bookmakers

12/1 at the following Bookmakers sportingbet sporting bet

[4]

InsiderBet.co.uk

Photo Works / Shutterstock.com

BEST OF THE REST

PREMIER LEAGUE TOP SCORER My full preview of the 2013/14 football season will be in next month’s edition of the Insider but I’ve spotted a couple of prices that I want to take this month and that’s the 8/1 about Man City’s striker Sergio Aguero and the 25/1 about his team mate Edin Džeko both of which are available with Skybet.

LET’S START WITH SERGIO ‘KUN’ AGUERO… Every striker will have dead seasons and there’s no doubt Sergio Aguero caught the rough end of the stick last season with a treble injury resulting in the Argentinean starting just 16 matches in the Premier League.

Last season, Aguero played only 2,035 minutes of Premier League football, so as far as actual games are concerned, the Argentinean only actually ‘played’ 21.88 games in total. Which combined with his shot total of 88 produces a ‘Shots per Game’ average of 4.02.

And the timing of the injuries was awful, not quite perfectly spaced out, but not far away and this left Kun with stop start season. But one that still produced 12 goals in just 30 appearances.

More reliant than Robin

Good numbers, but in reality, they were far better than that…

Top of the Shots Last season Aguero was tagged with a ‘Shots per Game’ stat of 2.9 which placed him in the Top 20 of the Premier League’s shooters table. But what those numbers don’t tell you is that 8 of those 30 appearances were as a substitute, and it’s this factor that drags down his average.

A figure that is fractionally better than 3/1 favourite Robin van Persie’s ‘Shots per Game’ stat of 3.97 (35.45 games played for 141 shots) with only the ‘want away’ Luis Suarez significantly trumping Aguero’s numbers with a whopping 5.61 ‘Shots per Game’.

But my argument is that Aguero could’ve performed just as well as the Uruguayan with clear run at the season instead of the stop start term he was dealt, and if 2013/14 goes better (or perfectly like Suarez’s season – barring the suspensions that is).

The 8/1 is a good bet just on the

above information, but there’s some more background to the wager that makes this solid value…

First off, Aguero is a very happy bunny down at City and will take the role of lead striker for the 2013/14 season. New coach, Manuel Pellegrini, is a huge fan and the fact that he has brought with him the highly regarded fitness coach Jose Cabello has to be good news for Aguero’s chances of making it through the season.

Added value 8/1 Aguero is a decent bet. We were offered up this price last season when Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli were with the club. And the fact that both of those ‘starter’ players are no longer with the club has to be great news for his chances.

With place terms of 1/4 odds 1, 2, 3, 4 I have to be with Aguero next season

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ISSUE 161 // Monday 8 July 2013

BEST OF THE REST

DZEKO LOOKS GREAT VALUE @ 25/1…

But it’s not just Aguero that will be suited by Pelligrini’s 4-2-2-2 system. Edin Džeko will be a fan also and having the pair of them regularly terrorising defences is only going to mean one thing… goals.

Considering Dzeko only started 16 games last season, it was quite incredible to see the kind of numbers that the Bosnian generated.

From just 1,935 minutes of football – that’s just 20.8 matches – Dzeko bagged 14 goals whilst generating 94 shots. That’s a ‘Shots per Game’ ratio of 4.51 and a ‘Goals per Game’ ratio of 0.67. Massive numbers that once again eclipsed those registered by RvP…

Super Sub, super value The question is, whether or not he can match his super sub performance as a starter, but with Silva and Nasri feeding the Bosnian a constant supply, I’ve no reason to doubt his ability to start as well as he does as a substitute.

And tagging the Bosnian as a ‘Super Sub’ certainly doesn’t do Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s achievements any justice. Dzeko only scored 7 of his 14 goals as a substitute last term – with only one goal scored as a sub in 2013.

25/1 is a ridiculous price especially with four places on offer and I’ll be having a few quid at that price

FOOTBALL - PREMIER LEAGUE TOP SCORER 2013/14

STAKE

Sergio Aguero to be Top Scorer £5.00 - Each Way*

PRICE

TIP

17th August – 11th May

8/1 (minimum)

TIP

Edin Džeko to be Top Scorer

STAKE

£1.00 - Each Way*

PRICE

Photo Works / Shutterstock.com

8/1 with

25/1 - 20/1 (minimum) 25/1 with

*Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places

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InsiderBet.co.uk

BEST OF THE REST

THE VIEW FROM THE INSIDE… LAST MONTH WE SPOKE ABOUT HOW TWITTER CAN REALLY GIVE YOU AN EDGE WITH YOUR BETS. As a quick example of the kind of information I’m looking for, visit the Melbourne Storm timeline (located at twitter.com/melbournestorm) – for the photo they tweeted prior to kick off last Saturday. The one that showed the waterlogged pitch they were about to play on.

Rugby and waterlogged pitches certainly don’t encourage points so the bookmakers offer of ‘Under 38.5 Points’ certainly made plenty of appeal. The final score of the match was 22-4 so punters who went ‘Under’ collected and given the conditions, the teams done well to rack up 26 points.

GET AN EDGE ON THE AUSTRALIAN RUGBY LEAGUE… Back to this month’s topic of conversation and I thought we’d have a brief chat about some more ways we can get an edge, this time on Australian Rugby League (NRL) and to do so, I use the www.wdnicolson.com site…

As you’ll see, this isn’t the prettiest site in the world, but what it lacks in aesthetics it sure makes up for in worth.

Basically, every article posted is of some use to us Rugby League punters but the real valuable betting nuggets are posted in the “Round X Tips Late mail Predictions” where X is replaced by the round number (so this week it’s round 17).

As you’ll see, the guy that runs the site is an NRL nut that basically forwards the information he receives in a ‘late mail’ format – as updates. The great thing about the NRL is that most of the fixtures kick off at different times so he has a pretty good chance of updating the team news for each match – right up to kick off.

Betting with this information gives punters an incredible edge and with the all-important last half of the season just about to start, this is probably the best time for betting on Rugby League – Australian style.

I’m not saying that twitter is an automatic winner picker – but it can give you an edge and the above example is a good one

Combine this information with the rugby selection methods I have already discussed (that use a combination of your own handicaps and those of the spreads) and you will be very tough to beat on the sport – which is always a good place to be

INSIDER TRADING – HOW TO MAKE THE MOST OF YOUR INSIDER BETS… There are no trades to strike this month. I’m keeping the value we have in the tank and the summer months are more a time for building our portfolio.

There’s a good chance I’ll have a lay for us next month though – in the NRL – but it’s all about the value so let’s see how the bookmakers bet.

We’ve had a couple of decent trades recently with our investments on both Wigan (Super League Regular Season) and the New South Wales Blues (State of Origin) hedged out to no-lose investments.

We traded Wigan in last month’s Insider, laying odds of around 1/10 about the Warriors.

A well timed trade on Wigan…

After some horrendous injuries, the best

side in the Super League have started to struggle and have lost their last two matches, to Warrington and Castleford – their lead at the top of the Regular Season table has shrunk to just a point over Huddersfield with Warrington four points away in third place.

Wigan are still the ones to be with, but they are now a 1/3 chance to land the Regular Season title, so our lay was well timed.

Queensland look strong…

As far as the New South Wales Blues are concerned, I didn’t like the feel of their win over Queensland in the first State of Origin game, and with the

ball back in the Maroon’s territory, they recorded a resounding win over the New South Welshmen in the second game.

The third and final match is a decider and from here – team news aside – I would have to be with the Maroons.

Queensland looked as though they had a few more gears in Sydney first time up, a few of their key squad members were under the weather though, and this ended up being the big difference on the day.

As far as the deciding Origin game is concerned, the Queensland squad will be close to full strength and if that’s the case they will be a tough side to beat

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ISSUE 161 // Monday 8 July 2013

BET SUMMARIES

THE BACKPAGE Here is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Seven Ashes bets and a couple of Premier League Goalscorer bets at unmissable prices. I’ll be adding to our Ashes ‘book’ via my weekly emails – and providing a full preview of the football season next month. On your doormats and available online on Wednesday 6th August.

A word about your staking advice...

All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet).

Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.

CORRECT SERIES SCORE

TIP

Joe Root to be top England batsman

England to win 4-0

£2.50

PRICE STAKE

TIP

TOP ENGLAND BATSMAN PRICE STAKE

THE ASHES 2013: 10th July – 25th August

5/1 (minimum)

10/1 - 9/1 (minimum)

10/1 at

5/1 AT THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS

9/1 at the following Bookmakers

CORRECT SERIES SCORE

Graeme Swann to be top England bowler

England to win 3-1

PRICE STAKE

TIP

TOP ENGLAND BOWLER PRICE STAKE

£5.00 3/1 (minimum)

£1.00 6/1 (minimum)

£2.50 5/1 (minimum) 5/1 at the following Bookmakers

David Warner - top Australia batsman

PRICE STAKE

Shane Watson - top Australia batsman

TIP

CORRECT SERIES SCORE

PRICE STAKE

TOP AUSTRALIA BATSMAN TIP

6/1 at the following Bookmakers

PRICE STAKE

3/1 at the following Bookmakers

£1.00 9/1 - 7/1 (minimum) 9/1 at

8/1 at

TIP

TIP

£1.00

7/1 at

England to win 4-1 £1.00 12/1 (minimum) 12/1 at the following Bookmakers sportingbet sporting bet

sportingbet sporting bet

TIP

Sergio Aguero to be Top Scorer

TIP

Edin Džeko to be Top Scorer

PRICE STAKE

£5.00 - Each Way*

PRICE STAKE

PREMIER LEAGUE FOOTBALL: TOP SCORER 2013/14 £1.00 - Each Way*

8/1 (minimum) 8/1 with

25/1 - 20/1 (minimum) 25/1 with

*Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places

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